European Coffee Federation

Coffee Market Overview February 2016

(issue nr 14)

Introduction

In this publication by ECF, initiated by the ECF Logistics Committee, we aim to provide a quick overview of key parameters of the coffee
market. The information is drawn mainly from public sources like Eurostat and the International Coffee Organization, presented in an
accessible and compact format.

Comments and suggestions are welcome. Please contact us at:

European Coffee Federation
Avenue des Nerviens, 9-31, fifth floor
1040 Brussels
Belgium
E-mail ecf@ecf-coffee.org

Production
In its latest available figures, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimates the 2015/16 crop to be 8.479.671 tons (143.371.000
bags), 1,53% more than in 2014/15. The graph shows the latest data for the green coffee production of the 20 largest producing
countries, ranked in accordance with the 2015/2016 crop. Brazil is expected to produce 2.594.100 tons (43,2 million bags) during crop
year 2015/16, continuing the downward trend of the four most recent years. It compares to 2.738.358 tons (45,6 million bags) in crop
year 2014/15, a decrease of some 144.000 tons (2,4 million bags) or 5,6%. In Vietnam, a somewhat higher crop is forecast (1.650.000
tons, +3,6%), while Colombia’s production is seen to increase slightly by 1,2% to 810.000 tons, continuing the upward trend. Production
in Indonesia has been variable in recent years. In 2015/16 the estimated volume is 660.000 tons, up 5,8%. The top-5 is completed by
Ethiopia, which has a relatively stable production. In 2015/60 the volume is expected to be 384.000 tons.

Brazilian coffee
authorities Conab
have released
their first forecast
of coffee
production for
crop year
2016/17, which
starts in April.
According to this
initial estimate,
output could
recover strongly
from 43,2 million
bags in 2015/16
to between 49,1
million and 51,9
million bags. The
upper end of this
range would
represent a record
crop for Brazil.
 Coffee Market Overview Page 2

Exports

Production does not automatically reflect exports because of local consumption. The graph below - based on ICO data - provides information
on the exports of all forms of coffee (green bean equivalent) to all destinations by the 15 major exporting countries, comparing the 12 month
period December
2013– November
2014 with December
2014 - November
2015. Total exports
decreased slightly
with 1,3% from 6,71
to 6,62 million tons
(from 111,8 to 110,4
million bags). In De-
cember 2014 - No-
vember 2015 Brazil
exported 2,18 million
tons (36,4 million
bags), +0,8% com-
pared to the same 12
-month period a year
before, Vietnam 1,16
million tons (-22,7%)
and Colombia
754.581 tons
(+15,4%), Indonesia
432.822 tons (+8,5%)
and India 312.756

Prices
World market prices for green coffee are provided in the form of the ICO Indicator Prices for Colombian Milds, Other Milds. Brazilian Naturals
and Robustas and their
weighted average, the
ICO Composite Indicator
Price (CIP).
From early 2014 prices
have increased sharply, in
particular for Arabicas,
under the influence of
the drought in Brazil and
the resulting reduced
crop in 2014/15. Devel-
opments since May 2014
reflect a gradually re-
duced concern about
availability and an easing
of prices. Damage caused
by the plant disease
‘coffee rust’ in Central
America does not seem
to have had an apprecia-
ble impact on prices.
Coffee Market Overview Page 3

EU Imports

EU28 imports of green non-

decaffeinated coffee from all
origins in the 12-month period
November 2014—October 2015
were 3.159.939tons (52,7 million
bags), a mere 0,3% more than
imports in the same 12-month
period a year previously:
3.151.290 tons (52,5 million
bags )

The graph shows imports from

the ten major origins. Brazil was
the largest supplier (+4,0% com-
pared to the previous 12-month
period), followed by Vietnam (-
6,0%). At a distance these two
origins were followed by Colom-
bia (+10,7%), Honduras (+6,6%),
and Indonesia (+7,8%).

EU imports are not evenly distributed throughout the year. The import pattern is influenced by crop seasons, price developments (both of
the origin itself and in comparison with suppliers of similar coffees), market needs, stock positions in origin and destination, currency fluc-
tuations etcetera. The graph below shows the monthly imports from EU’s five most important green coffee suppliers.
 Coffee Market Overview Page 4

Consumption

The latest ICO estimate for world

consumption in calendar year
2014 has been revised up slightly
to 9,01 million tons (150.2 million
bags), as domestic consumption
in some exporting countries,
particularly those in Asia, was
adjusted upwards. This compares
to 8,87 million tons (147,9 million
bags) in calendar year 2013, up
1,6%. With a world production of
8,48 million tons (141,4 million
bags) in crop year 2014, there is a
statistical deficit of over half a
million tons (8,8 million bags).
Stocks in exporting countries
have so far allowed exports to
continue at a strong pace.

The ICO no longer provides a

breakdown for consumption in
individual EU members. This is understandable: in the single EU market it is hard to pinpoint where coffee imported into the EU was actually
consumed. The graph shows consumption in the major importing markets and domestic consumption in selected producing countries.

Stocks

In close cooperation with the port– and warehouse organisations in the major European coffee ports (Antwerp, Bremen, Hamburg, Genoa, Le
Havre and Trieste), ECF collects aggregate data on total green coffee stocks, both terminal market and non-terminal market stocks. The table
below shows the development of total stock volumes in all surveyed ports on a monthly basis for the most recent available period of twelve
months. The graph illustrates the development per port. Data are in tons.

(tons) ALL
Nov 14 688.391
Dec 689.446
Jan 15 695.233
Feb 698.263
Mar 695.441
Apr 697.324
May 726.315
Jun 703.666
Jul 714.566
Aug 720.339
Sep 715.505
Oct 711.144
Nov 708.426
Coffee Market Overview Page 5

And finally: the things you never knew you wanted to know about coffee

What to do with coffee dregs? In previous issues

we have featured several creative options, and
here is another one: decorative bowls, made
from coffee dregs and used egg cartons. All natu-
ral, organic, food-safe materials are used as a
binding agent.

(source: My Cookery Log | Shop, Germany)

There is clear scientific evidence that caffeine can have an

ergogenic effect, meaning it can improve physical performan-
ce. Swiss tennis player Stan Wawrinka put this into practice.
Here he is enjoying a cup of coffee in his quarter-final match
against Raphael Nadal in Paris-Bercy, November 2015. He
won (of course): 7-6, 7-6.

(source: ABC desportes, Spain)

Ever wondered about the link between a font (typeface) and the taste of coffee? Graphic designer Sarah Hyndman believes typog-
raphy says more than most people think it does. She thinks the shape of a letter can impact the way stuff tastes, smells, and
sounds. To her, typefaces are multi-sensory experiences that affect the way we interact with the world around us. She conducted
a series of online experiments to gather data on how typography impacts human perception. Hyndman says she can tell what kind
of coffee you like based on your preference in typefaces (angular fonts correlate to bitter, rounded to sweeter drinks). Take the
survey and see for yourself (if necessary: right-click the link and select ‘open hyperlink’)

(source: Wired, 24 September 2015 )

Coffee quote: