Transportation Research Record 1852 ■
Paper No. 03-2950
Estimating Values for
Traffic Parameters in Turning Lanes
Juan Enrique Coeymans A. and Juan Carlos Herrera M.
Following previous research in Chile that showed the influence of physi-
cal and operational characteristics of traffic signal junctions on capacity,
in-depth research was done to capture the influence of turning vehicles as
opposed to other vehicles sharing a lateral lane. Currently, equivalency
factors and then saturation flows are estimated as a function of lane type
and width, period of the day, and the proportion of public transport vehi-
cles in the flow. A database containing more than 400 discharges and
about 4,000 headways was collected at 12 signalized junctions in Santiago,
Chile, and using the synchronous regression method, new formulations
were obtained to estimate equivalency factors. These formulations were
defined, besides the above-mentioned factors, as a function of turning-
vehicle proportion, turn radius, and pedestrian level that interfere with
turning vehicles. Validation of the results was successful. The difference
between observed and estimated saturation flows was about 1%, which
is an excellent accuracy level. In fact, it is far better than current esti-
mations. As a result, a better and more realistic estimation for satura-
tion flow in turning lanes in developing countries was obtained, and
therefore, in order to improve traffic signal junction performance, the
new formulations can be introduced into computational programs for
simulation and optimization of different urban traffic projects.
Estimation of basic traffic parameters is an important step in
the process of optimizing a traffic signal cycle or in the coordination
of a traffic signal network. In developing countries neither resources
nor effort is normally devoted to investigations in this area because
values are directly transferred from research done in industrialized
countries. However, such parameters usually lose their validity in
developing countries because of the differences in driver and
pedestrian behavior and traffic composition.
The general objectives of this research were as follows:
• To determine the influence on traffic behavior of both right- and
left-turning vehicles in different traffic composition proportions, and
• To determine the effects of road characteristics (mainly lane
width and turning radius) and the presence of pedestrians on capacity
in signal junctions when there are turning vehicles.
In particular, using the synchronous regression method (1), the
goal was to derive a formulation for the equivalency factors of dif-
ferent classes of vehicles as a function of variables such as the pro-
portion of public transport and turning vehicles, the turning radius,
and the level of pedestrian interference with the turning vehicles.
The practical use of the results of this research is the more accurate
estimation of saturation flows at signalized intersections.
Transport Engineering Department, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile,
Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago, Chile.
47
After a presentation of the background of this work, the method-
ology and the experimental design are described. The final model
is described, and the analysis of the main results derived from the
final model in terms of equivalency factors and saturation flows is
presented, followed by conclusions.
BACKGROUND
The capacity of an access site is the sum of the individual capacities
of each lane. However, the latter is a function of several factors (2):
∑q
k
i, j
s = FWIDTH, j  s
k k
 i
∀j, k (1)
∑ f q
j BASIC, j
k
i, j
k
i, j
i
where
s kj = saturation flow of lane type j during period k (veh/h),
FWIDTH, j = width factor of lane type j (mathematical expression is
given below),
j = basic saturation flow of lane type j during period k
k
s BASIC,
[through-car units (tcu)/h],
q i,jk = flow of type i vehicles on lane type j during period k
(veh/h), and
f i,jk = equivalency factor of vehicle type i circulating on lane
type j during period k (tcu/veh).
The tcu measure represents the basic vehicle. Index i indicates vehi-
cle class as follows: direct car (DC), turning car (TC), direct bus
(DB), and turning bus (TB). Lane-type index j indicates right lane
(RL), central lane (CL), and left lane (LL). Finally, the period k of
the day indicates either morning peak (MP) or off-peak (OP).
The relevance of the equivalency factors in Equation 1 indicates
the importance of its correct estimation, since values not reflecting
what really happens will yield incorrect saturation flows. Since sat-
uration flow is an important input for most simulation and network
traffic signal optimization software packages, if this value does not
represent reality, the results of such programs will not be appropri-
ate: for example, larger delays may be obtained, implying higher
costs for all users.
Branston and van Zuylen (1) proposed two linear-regression-based
methods to estimate traffic parameters: synchronous regression and
asynchronous regression. Both methods divide each green and amber
time given to an approach into three consecutive counting periods.
The first counting period begins at the instant the green light appears
and ends at the time when the departure rate is the saturation flow. The
middle counting period ends at a time when the departure rate is still
the saturation flow, and the last counting period ends when the amber
48 Paper No. 03-2950 Transportation Research Record 1852

light appears. In the synchronous regression method the ends of the
first and middle counting periods correspond exactly with the instant
of departure of a specified vehicle, whereas in the asynchronous
regression method these ends are an arbitrary point in time. The
expression for the synchronous regression is as follows:
unlike the direct car, the direct bus changes its headway only if the
vehicles are in the right-hand lane. Both formulations are defined
as follows (2):
, j = [1 − 0.057  ( Aj − 3)  DLat ]  [1.676 + φ( PT ) + C ]
k
hDC

, j = 2.482 + 0.643  DRL

∑h N
k
T = δ1  λ 1 − δ 2  λ 2 + + (2) hDB (5)
i i
i =1

where
where
h i,jk = headway of vehicle type i that circulates on lane type j dur-
T = length of counting period (s); ing period k (s);
δ1 = 1 if counting period begins at change to green light, Aj = width of lane type j (m);
0 otherwise;
δ2 = 1 if counting period begins at change to amber light,
DLat = {1
0
if vehicle circulates on a lateral lane
other case
0 otherwise;
λ1 = green start lag (s); φ( PT ) =
0.216
(6)
λ2 = green end lag (s); 1 + 34  exp( −20.61  PT )
hi = headway of vehicle type i (s);
Ni = number of discharged vehicles of type i during counting PT = proportion of public transport vehicles on the lane,
period (veh); and 0 ≤ PT ≤ 1;
 = error term. C = 0.181DRL + 0.126DLL − 0.111DMP; and
This method obtains, simultaneously, the green start and end lags DRL =
1
0 { if vehicle circulates on right lane
other case

{
and the average headway for each vehicle type (including the private
1 if vehicle circulates on left lane
car, which was considered the reference vehicle and uses the index 1). DLL =
0 other case

Since the equivalency factor of a vehicle type i is defined as the rate
between its headway and the reference vehicle headway (3), it is easy
to determine for each vehicle type (although the authors propose a
more complex expression).
However, the asynchronous regression method estimates the
equivalency factors directly. Its expression is as follows:
N1 = s  δ1  λ1 + s  δ 2  λ 2 − ∑ f N
i=2
i i +
Although the green start and end lag are bigger with the asyn-
chronous regression method, the difference between both parameters
(called movement lost time) is equal to that with the synchronous
regression method.
Gibson and Fernández (4) simplified this model by removing
the green end lags, since normally there are not enough completely
saturated departures. Considering this, the model was defined as
follows:
TSat = λ1 + ∑h N
i
i i +
where
TSat = discharge time of saturated flow (s),
λ1 = green start lag (s),
hi = headway of vehicle type i (s),
Ni = number of discharged vehicles of type i (veh), and
 = error term.
More recently, and in order to determine the influence of pub-
lic transport vehicles on headway, among other factors, Bartel (2)
conducted a large research project using the synchronous regres-
sion method. Thus, the headway can be estimated as a function of
some environmental variables. For example, the direct-car head-
way is defined as a function of the lane width and type, period of
the day, and proportion of public transport in the flow. However,
{
1 in morning peak
DMP =
0 other period
The equivalency factor of vehicle type i is defined as the rate
between its headway and the reference vehicle headway (3). Thus,
different formulations for each vehicle type are obtained. The refer-
ence vehicle is the direct car that circulates on a lane containing only
direct cars or simply with no public transport presence. As was men-
(3) tioned earlier, tcu represents this situation, which is the purest, and
the headway of this vehicle is the lowest.
This investigation considers the turning-vehicle issue in order
to find different headway formulations for each vehicle type under
different conditions. In this case, two new vehicle types are pre-
sented: the turning car and the turning bus. So for each equivalency
factor, formulations that explain real vehicle behavior better were
obtained, and therefore more accurate saturation flow estimates
could be computed.
METHODOLOGY AND EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
( 4)
The methodology of the study consisted of measuring the headway
for each vehicle that crosses the stop line, either in the right or in the
left lane that contains turning vehicles. Data were collected by video-
recording the departure in the objective lane at 12 signal junctions
in Santiago, Chile, in order to register the moment when the rear of
the vehicle crosses the stop line. Table 1 presents a description of
these junctions. The video camera was located perpendicular to the
vehicle departure and at a distance large enough so as to allow
recording whether the vehicle was actually turning. Furthermore,
the video camera location had to be out of the drivers’ sight in order
to not modify their behavior.
Then data were processed to obtain the number of vehicles
of each type that crossed the stop line along with the time that
each departure process took. The regression was made over a
sample with 409 discharges, which implies about 4,000 headway
observations.
Coeymans and Herrera Paper No. 03-2950 49

TABLE 1 Description of Signalized Intersections

Turn
PT tur Pedestrians
Turn(a) From (lane width [m]) To (road width [m]) Radius
(%)(b) (%) (c) [ped/m] (d)
[m]
R El Bosque NS (3) E. Yánez (13) 5.4 - 94 1

R El Bosque SN (2.75) Apoquindo (9.5) 4 - 35 4.3

R Vic. Mackenna SN (3.1) Esc. Agrícola (7.1) 7.1 46 53 2

R Esc.Agrícola WE (3.4) Macul (8.1) 6.6 11 100 0.1

R Los Leones NS (3.75) E. Yánez (13) 8 10 36 1.7

R Av. Bilbao EW (3) Los Leones (6.5) 6 15 19 2.2

L Macul SN (3.2) Av. Grecia (9) 29.5 1 100 1

L Alameda EW (5) Las Rejas (7) 30 22 100 4.1

L Las Condes EW (3.1) Padre Hurtado (7.3) 22 3 100 0.4

L Suecia (4.1) Lota (6.2) 9.6 8 58 4.3

L Costanera EW (2) Los Leones (6.2) 15 - 100 0.6

L Macul SN (2.5) Esc. Agrícola (6.9) 9.4 14 100 0.2
(a)
: R: Right; L: Left;
(b)
: Proportion of public transport vehicles. The dash (-) means no public transport presence;
(c)
: Proportion of turning vehicles;
(d)
: Only those pedestrians who interfere with turning vehicles. More than 5 pedestrians per minute blocks the discharge.

During the geometric data collection for each junction, a singu-
larity about the turning radius could be observed: turning vehicles
describe a radius that does not correspond exactly to the physical
radius defined by the junction’s design; instead it varies depend-
ing on the width of the road into which the vehicle is turning. Con-
sequently, a new definition, which internalizes this phenomenon,
was proposed. This concept is called the real radius, and in prac-
tice it corresponds to the average radius that the vehicles follow
when they turn.
A regression was used to obtain a model that estimates the real
radius using the physical turn radius and the width of the road to be
turned as dependent variables. Data were collected at 15 signal junc-
tions in Santiago, each one with more than 50 turning vehicles. The
final model estimated was (Student’s t-value):
RR = 0.980 RT + 0.629  W 2
R adjusted = 96.57
(21.47) (9.99)
where
RR = real radius (m),
RT = physical turn radius (m), and
W = width of road into which vehicle is turning (m).
A model with a nonzero intercept was tried as well, but it was not
statistically significant. This result is logical because if both dependent
variables are zero, the real radius must be zero too.
NEW FORMULATIONS
In order to reduce the number of parameters to be estimated, the
parameters for lane type and period of day were taken from the work
of Bartel (2), who estimated these values using a large database.
Bartel (2) and Adonis (5) found that the proportion of public
transport would affect only cars and that this influence would fol-
low the logistic function described in Equation 6. Now a new car
type is considered: the turning car. The influence over this new vehi-
cle type would be similar to that in the case of the direct car. The
turning bus, similar to the case of the direct bus, was assumed not to
be influenced by the presence of public transport vehicles.
The logistic function presented in Equation 6 was fitted for each dif-
ferent formulation analyzed, but the results were poor. Furthermore,
other functional forms were tried that gave even worse results.
In other words, it is possible to believe that car headway and the
proportion of public transport vehicles are independent in turning
situations. Nevertheless, two reasons prevail to include the logistic
function reported by Bartel (2) in the new formulation: (a) the obvi-
ous influence over cars produced by public transport vehicles
reported by different authors (2, 4, 5) and (b) the fact that the pro-
( 7) posed model decreases if the proportion of public transport vehicles
is not considered through the logistic function.
Each variable’s effects over the headway of each vehicle type are
intuitive. An increase in the real radius or a decrease in pedestrian
level should imply a headway decrease for each vehicle type. These
two variables affect direct vehicles only if turning vehicles are pres-
ent (it must be remembered that only pedestrians interfering with
turning vehicles were considered in the variable ped ).
If the proportion of turning vehicles rises, a negative effect on
the headway of both the direct car and the bus is expected, that is,
an increase in their headway. But the effect of this variable on the
turning car and the turning bus is not clear.
On the basis of former discussions, different models were proposed.
The final model was defined as follows:
TSat = λ1 + hDC
k
, j  N DC + hTC , j  N TC + hDB, j  N DB + hTB, j  N TB
k k k
(8)
50 Paper No. 03-2950 Transportation Research Record 1852

where poor. The proportion of turning vehicles and pedestrian level were
chosen to be included in the formulation. The first variable was
λ1 = [λ1RL  (α tur  (1+ ped ) + φ  PT )]  DRL + λLL
1  DLL
included since it is reasonable to think that turning cars allocated at
the head of the queue have a lower-than-usual departure rate (because
 tur  (1 + ped ) 
, j = [1 + ω  ( A − 3)]  β DC + γ DC 
k
hDC + φ( PT ) + C  of the difficulty arising from turning movements). Second, pedestri-
 R R  ans start to cross the street at the same time as the departure on the
turning lane (when the green period starts for both). So in the first
  γ TC  tur  RR  
, j = [1 + ω  ( A − 3)]  β TC + exp   + φ( PT ) + C 
k
hTC moment the influence of this second variable on departure rate should
  (1 + ped )   be bigger. However, pedestrians affect the departure rate only if the
lane contains turning vehicles.
, j = β DB
k
hDB
Also, buses start moving before the green period starts; that is, they
, j = β TB + δ U  DU
k
hTB use the last moments of the red period. This finding was reported pre-
viously (2) and occurs because bus drivers compete with each other
where for passengers in order to obtain higher incomes (the salary of Chilean
bus drivers is a function of the number of passengers carried by the
Ni = number of discharged vehicles of type i (veh); bus). This effect was introduced in formulations with excellent
tur = turning vehicles’ proportion in flow, 0 ≤ tur ≤ 1; results; however, it can be successfully adjusted only for the right
ped = pedestrian who interferes with turning vehicles (pedes- lane (a detailed discussion regarding this issue can be found later in
trians/min); this paper).
RR = real radius (m); A similar expression to that used for the right lane was proposed
φ(PT) = influence of public transport on flow (Equation 6); for the left lane, but poor results were obtained. This result can be
DU = 0 if left turn from and to bidirectional street, 1 otherwise; explained by the fact that left-turning movements come from an
λ 1 = green start lag on lane type j (s);
j
exclusive lane on a bidirectional street and lead to a similar one.
βi = average headway of vehicle type i (s); and Thus, the interaction between turning vehicles and pedestrians occurs
γi = effect of turning proportion and turning condition on later than that observed in the right-turn case (that is, pedestrians
vehicle type i. have more time to cross the street before the turning vehicles arrive).
λ 1RL, α, φ, λ 1LL, ω, βDC, βTC, βDB, βTB, γDC, γTC, and δU are parameters to Furthermore, in these cases an area exists in the intersection where
be estimated. Table 2 presents the adjusted value for each parameter vehicles can wait while pedestrians cross the street without the depar-
and the Student’s t-coefficient. ture from the stop line’s being affected. Therefore, the green start lag
Despite the fact that it was not possible to introduce the effect of in the left lane with turning vehicles is a constant value.
the real radius on bus headway, a new variable that considers turn type Parameters estimated for Equation 8 were all significant at 95%,
was adjusted. This variable states that if the turn is to the left from and and the signs are correct. In conclusion, robust models were obtained
to a bidirectional street, a bigger turning radius than that for other turn that internalize the effects of different factors (proportion of public
types can be expected (for instance, if a bus turns to the right, it will transport and turning vehicles, pedestrians who interfere with turn-
have a larger headway than if it is turning is to the left from and to a ing vehicles, lane type and width, real radius, and period of the day)
bidirectional street). Hence, the real radius was considered. in the estimation of headways.
Before the formulation for the green start lag presented in Equa-
tion 8 was arrived at, other expressions were tried. In the beginning,
no variables were selected to explain this concept, but the results were RESULTS ANALYSIS

In order to complement these results with those reported by Bartel

(2) (his research, unlike this, did not consider the presence of turn-
TABLE 2 Value and Student’s t-Coefficient for Each ing vehicles), the value of the parameter ω (–0.059), which explains
Parameter of Model Described in Equation 8 lane-width effects on car headway, was modified to –0.057 as deter-
Parameter Value t-Student(a) mined by Bartel (2). The small difference between both estimations
λ1 RL 5.209 5.45 allows for the change without significant error.
α 1.229 8.99 As has been previously explained, the equivalency factor of vehi-
φ -1.431 -3.36 cle type i is defined as the rate between its headway and the reference
λ1 LL 5.062 8.70 vehicle’s headway. The direct car that circulates on a lane contain-
ω -0.059 -2.90 ing only direct cars is the reference vehicle, or tcu. Its headway
β DC 1.739 12.76 expression is obtained by setting the proportion of public transport
γ DC 1.590 2.07 vehicles to zero in the headway of the direct car in Equation 5:
β TC 1.715 18.87
γ TC , j = [1 − 0.057  ( Aj − 3) ⋅ DLat ]  [1.676 + φ( 0 ) + C ]
k
-0.350 -2.65 hRef ( 9)
β DB 3.801 15.05
β TB 3.319 10.10 k
where h Ref, j is the headway of the reference vehicles that circulate
δU 0.825 2.06
on lane type j during period k of the day in seconds. The rest of the
R2 adjusted 93.05
variables have the same meaning as in Equation 5. Dividing each
F 497.37 headway presented in Equation 8 (with the estimated value for
(a)
: if t− student ≥ 1.96, the parameter is significant at each parameter presented in Table 2) by Equation 9, the equivalency
95% level. factors were obtained.
Coeymans and Herrera Paper No. 03-2950 51

Equivalency Factor of Direct Car In summary, for a higher proportion of turning vehicles, the
equivalency factor of the direct car is bigger than that of the turning
Applying the traditional definition of equivalency factors, the new car unless turning conditions are so bad as to avoid a great reduction
formulation for the equivalency factor of the direct car is in the turning car’s factor.

 0.063  D + 1.59  tur  (1 + ped ) 

 T
 Equivalency Factor of Direct Bus
 RR 
 
+ 0 .216
− 0.006 
Using the results reported by Bartel (2) in order to generalize the for-
 [1 + 34  exp( −20.61  PT )] 
=1+ 
k mulations, the headway function for the direct bus was defined as
f DC , j (10)
k
h0 , j follows:

, j = 2.482 + 0.643  DRL + 0.676  DT

k
where hDB (12)

h k0,j = 1.676 + 0.181 DRL + 0.126DLL − 0.111DMP + 0.006 Depending on the values of dummy variables DRL and DT, four
DT =
1
{
0
if turning proportion is greater than 0
if not
possible cases to determine the equivalency factor arise:

The other variables have the same meaning as before. F 

3.801
if DR = 1 and DT = 1
If turning conditions are good, the effect on the direct car is not  WIDTH, j h0k, j
 3.125
very significant. But if turning conditions are not good (small real  FWIDTH, j  k if DR = 1 and DT = 0
radius and a high level of pedestrian interference) and a high pro-  h0 , j
k
f DB ,j =  (13)
portion of turning vehicles exists, the equivalency factor of the direct 3.158
 FWIDTH, j  k if DR = 0 and DT = 1
car increases significantly. More than 20 m real radius, more than  h0 , j
three pedestrians per minute, and more than 50% turning vehicles can  2.482
 FWIDTH, j  k if DR = 0 and DT = 0
be considered high values.  h0 , j
In the worst case, the equivalency factor may reach higher values
than those currently used. These values increase to 1.5 tcu per direct The two first cases correspond to those buses that circulate in the
car. Different authors (6–10) assign a value of 1 to this equivalency right lane with and without a turning presence, whereas the third and
factor; that is to say, the reference vehicle was independent of the fourth cases correspond to those buses that do not circulate in the
operation’s characteristics. Bartel’s values (2) are higher than unity right lane with and without a turning presence.
and lower than those found here, but his research did not consider The width factor (which also appears in Equation 1) is defined as
the presence of turning vehicles. follows:

1
Equivalency Factor of Turning Car FWIDTH, j =
1 − 0.057  ( Aj − 3)  DLat
The expression for the equivalency factor of the turning car is ≈ 1 + 0.058  ( Aj − 3)  DLat (14)

  −0.35  tur  RR  
0.033 + exp  (1 + ped )  
 
 
+ 0.216  between 1.333 and 2.295 tcu per direct bus depending on the lane type
 [1 + 34  exp( −20.61  PT )] 
fTCk , j =1+ (11)
h0k, j
The variables have the same meaning as in previous expressions.
The lowest value (approximate) is obtained on exclusive lanes,
with a high real radius (more than 20 m) and neither public transport
vehicles nor pedestrians present. In this case, the equivalency factor
for turning vehicles is about 1.022 tcu per turning car. In contrast, with
a small proportion of turning vehicles, a high proportion of public
transport (more than 40% of the total flow), and poor turning condi-
tions (less than 12 m real radius and more than three pedestrians per
minute interfering with the turning vehicles), Equation 11 yields
higher values for this equivalency factor (1.6 tcu per turning car).
These last conditions can be considered the worst for the turning car,
so these values can be considered as limits for the equivalency factor.
As a consequence, in the worst cases, the equivalency factors are
larger than those reported by different authors (4, 6–10), which is
around 1.2 tcu per turning car. Thus, the turning car has a greater
effect on saturation flow than was previously supposed.
where Aj is the width of lane type j in meters, and DLat is 1 if the
vehicle circulates in a lateral lane and 0 otherwise.
For lane widths between 2.5 and 4 m, the equivalency factor varies
and period of the day. In right lanes with turning vehicles, similar val-
ues to the 2.25 equivalent vehicles reported by Webster and Cobbe (6 )
can be obtained. In situations with turning vehicles, regardless of the
lane type, equivalency factors are closer to the 2 equivalent vehicles
proposed by Akcelik (10). In other cases, the estimation yields values
closer to 1.7, 1.69, and 1.62 equivalent vehicles, as proposed by
Branston (7 ), Coeymans and Neely (8) and Lam (9) respectively. In
general, values obtained are smaller than those currently used.
The formulation indicates that the equivalency factor increases
as the lane width increases. Because the lane width has an influ-
ence on the reference vehicle headway (see Equation 9), this vari-
able affects the equivalency factor of the direct bus, too. That is,
lane width affects the equivalency factor of the direct bus through
the headway of reference vehicle specification. In fact, wider lanes
imply a larger equivalency factor for the direct bus.
Hence, narrower lane widths are more convenient in order to obtain
the lowest equivalency factor for the direct bus. However, it must be
taken into account that in the saturation flow estimation (Equation 1),
the width factor has a multiplicative effect. So if the lane width is less
52 Paper No. 03-2950 Transportation Research Record 1852

than 3 m, the width factor decreases the basic saturation flow despite
the increase caused by the smaller equivalency factor of the direct bus.
In fact, the influence of the width factor cancels the effect of the direct
bus equivalency factor.
In summary, larger lane widths imply larger saturation flows,
which is obviously expected.
Estimation of Movement Lost Time
The movement lost time, defined as the difference between the green
start lag and the green end lag, has new formulations for its estima-
tion. These formulations are complementary to the results reported
by Bartel (2), because his investigation obtains values for the case
with no turning vehicles. The expressions are as follows:

Equivalency Factor of Turning Bus MLTRL = 1.518 + [5.209  (1.229tur ⋅(1+ ped )
− 1.431  PT ) − 4.294]  DT (s) (17)
The headway of the turning bus is defined as follows:
MLTLL = 1.269 + 0.895  DT (s) (18)
j = 3.319 + 0.825  DU
k
hTB, (15)
where MLTj is the movement lost time on lane type j and the other
where DU has the same meaning as in Equation 8. Therefore, accord-
variables are as defined in previous formulas.
ing to the turning type, the equivalency factor of this vehicle type is
In both right- and left-turning cases, the presence of a turning vehi-
defined as
cle implies a larger movement lost time. In right lanes pedestrian inter-
ference can explain the larger delay, and in left lanes the existence of
F 
3.319
if DU = 0 an exclusive turning stage can account for the expression. The last
 WIDTH, j h0k, j
 stage before the exclusive turning one corresponds to the opposite
f k
TB, j =  (16)
flow, which in most cases corresponds to completely saturated dis-
F 4.144
 k if DU = 1
 WIDTH, j h0 , j charges. Then many of these vehicles cross the stop line during the
amber and even the red period. Therefore, turning vehicles cannot
make their movement until the opposite flow clears the intersection.
The other variables have the same meaning as before. The first case
This situation yields a higher green start lag in left-turn lanes.
corresponds to a left turn from and to a bidirectional street, whereas
However, the high green end lag value is overcome by the green
the other case corresponds to any other left turn and all of the right
start lag’s increase. In conclusion, in the presence of turning vehicles,
turns. For a lane width between 2.5 and 5 m, this factor varies between
larger movement lost time was obtained.
1.783 and 2.725 tcu per turning bus.
The values that can be obtained are larger than the value of
2 equivalent vehicles proposed by several authors (7–9). It must be
said that these authors only worked with right turns. Webster and Validation of New Formulations
Cobbe (6) propose a different value—2.8 equivalent vehicles—which
is larger than those estimated in this research. Nevertheless, for lane The final objective of the new formulations is to obtain more accu-
widths between 2.5 and 4.5 m, the estimated values are closer than rate estimations of saturation flow according to Equation 1. To val-
the estimation by Akcelik (10), who concluded that in the absence idate the new formulations, a set of six signalized junctions with
of a restricted turn, the equivalency factor of the turning bus is turning vehicles present was used. The observed (real) saturation
2 equivalent vehicles. If such is not the case, the equivalency factor flow was compared with those values calculated with both current
increases to 2.5 equivalent vehicles. estimations and the new formulations. Table 3 presents the results.
The width factor analysis and the lane width influence on the Compared with current estimations, the new results are much bet-
equivalency factor of the turning bus are similar to the analysis done ter. The new formulations yield better (more accurate) values for the
for the equivalency factor of the direct bus. saturation flow than the best estimate that can be reached with current

TABLE 3 Comparison of Saturation Flows in Vehicles per Hour: Observed (s O ),

Currently Estimated (s EC ), and Estimated with New Formulations (sEN )
Difference Difference
Junctions sO sEC % (c) sEN % (c)
Santa Isabel / Portugal 1706 1861 9.1 1753 2.8
(a)
Vic. Mackenna SN / Sta. Isabel 1275 1459 14.4 1297 1.7
A. Vespucio NS / Echeñique 1544 1656 7.4 1534 -0.7
Santa Isabel / Portugal (b) 1878 1976 5.2 1876 -0.1
(b)
Santa Isabel / Santa Rosa 1735 1855 6.9 1753 1.0
(a)
Santa Rosa / Santa Isabel 1524 1619 6.2 1501 -1.5
(a)
: Morning peak
( )
(b)
(c)
: Left lane sEi − sO
: The difference was estimated as: Difference % = ·100 i = C,N.
sO
Coeymans and Herrera
2200
Saturation Flow Estimated [veh/h]
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
1000
FIGURE 1 Validation of new formulations.
tools. In fact, in most cases the difference between observed and esti-
mated saturation flow was not significant. Figure 1 shows current and
new formulations versus observed values (real saturation flow). The
ideal curve is y = x (real and estimated saturation flows are equal). For
the current formulations the slope is different from unity and the
intercept is significantly different from zero (using Student’s t-values).
With the new formulations the intercept was not significant. By
forcing the intercept to be equal to zero (as in the ideal situation),
the adjustment is successful. The slope in this case is closer to unity,
which means that the new estimate replicates the observed values
much better than the current formulations do (difference of 0.5%
versus 10%).
CONCLUSION
Through the synchronous regression method, a model was obtained
that considers operational and physics variables in the estimation of
capacity parameters.
The proportion of turning vehicles in the traffic stream has a sig-
nificant effect on the direct car’s behavior. In fact, direct cars are
delayed by turning vehicles, increasing their equivalency factor. The
turning car shows better performance (that is, has the smallest equiv-
alency factor) if the proportion of turning vehicles in the lane is high
(more than 60% to 70%).
The interaction between pedestrians and turning vehicles has an
important effect on the delay for the rest of the vehicles that share the
lane. In zones with high pedestrian density (more than three pedestri-
ans per minute), elimination or improvement of the interaction (such
as a new pedestrian route or a special traffic signal for them) can bring
an important increase in the departure rate (or saturation flow).
Making a turn into a narrow road is different from making a turn
into a wider one. So a new concept to capture this aspect was defined
and called the real radius, which is a linear function of the physical
radius and the width of the road into which the vehicle is turning.
However, more observations are required in order to confirm these
results and to obtain a stronger model.
Paper No. 03-2950 53
y = 0.9034x + 282.88
R2 = 0.9777
y = 1.0054x
R2 = 0.9859
1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Real Saturation Flow [veh/h]
Current Formulations New Formulations
The effect of public transport vehicles on cars has been proved.
This relationship reinforces the construction of separate lanes for
public transport vehicles as a measure to improve junction perfor-
mance and to increase junction capacity. The effect of turning vehi-
cles on the direct bus confirms the idea of separate lanes in the sense
that it would split the flow. In addition, it is expected that this model
will better estimate traffic parameters in most developing countries,
where the proportion of public transport vehicles in the street is high
(about 30 to 40%).
A higher green end lag was obtained compared with those reported
by Bartel (2), which translates into a better use of the amber period.
Nevertheless, the increase in the green start lag is larger. At the end,
the movement lost time (defined as green start lag minus green end
lag) for lanes with turning vehicles is larger than that obtained for
lanes without turning vehicles because pedestrians interfering with
turning vehicles cancel the better use of the amber period. Further-
more, since estimation of the movement lost time in the right lane with
turning vehicles also is affected by pedestrians, it is advisable to treat
this situation in a special way, considering all pedestrians present at
the junction (not only those who interfere with turning vehicles).
Compared with current saturation flow estimates, the new formu-
lations yield values closer to observed (real) saturation flows. The
error in the estimate was negligible using the new formulations.
Furthermore, the effect of the proportion of turning vehicles on the
saturation flow is different from that which has commonly been used.
In fact, depending on the turning conditions, the lowest saturation
flow is achieved for different proportions of turning vehicles, as
shown in Figure 2. Thus, an exclusive turn lane could be more effi-
cient (have higher saturation flow) than one that contains both direct
and turning vehicles.
In summary, the presence of turning vehicles and turning condi-
tions change the behavior of the rest of the vehicles sharing the lane.
Therefore, the new formulations are useful at the moment for more
accurate saturation flow prediction. These formulations, or the values
obtained from them, can be introduced in different software packages
(for instance, TRANSYT or SATURN) for traffic engineering project
evaluation.
54 Paper No. 03-2950 Transportation Research Record 1852

Saturation Flow Saturation Flow

[veh/h] [veh/h]

60 -70% % tur 15-35% % tur

(a) (b)

FIGURE 2 Relationship between turning-vehicle proportion and saturation

flow: (a) bad turning conditions (<12 m real radius and more than three
pedestrians per minute); (b) good turning conditions (>20 m real radius and
fewer than one pedestrian per minute).

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