ATENEO DE NAGA UNIVERSITY

City of Naga

Contingency Theory and Planning

Castaneda, Wiselher Mari

Competente, Jovelyn
Doctor, Jerielyn
Puto, Joshua Ismael
Rodriguez, Rio Theodore

Students

Marshal Murillo, PhD.

Professor

Philippine Administrative Thought and Institution (POSP211)

Introduction

Contingency theory in public administration states that management is affected by external

factors and that there is an optimal way to manage a group, organization, state, etc. The theory
mainly relies on the flexibility of the leader to manage the given resources in varying situations
using whatever is available and adapting to the current external conditions and factors such as
the level of technology, population etc. It is also attributed with preparedness as it is given a
vital role in solving and mitigating undesirable scenarios, like contingency planning, the
application of contingency theory in real life conditions is a concept that should be given an in
depth analysis.

Contingency Planning

During a time of crisis, having an organized plan for any conceivable scenario can be
effective and beneficial in all aspects of life. It allows groups to anticipate a possible problem
and how to best prepare what is needed for a better result. A solid plan may be able to provide
more than what is expected or lessen the damage of a worst case scenario. It is a given in life
that there are occurrences where even well planned strategies and arrangements can go awry
and in the process will not be well executed as to its expected efficiency and come in short to
its expected goals due to the failure of considering factors beyond the original planning phase.
Contingency Planning attempts to take every potential scenario into consideration thus
reducing any negative consequences from any crisis that may arise. In layman’s terms, a
contingency plan is the “Plan B” just in case the original plan encounters difficulties to its
feasible application. It has been considered as a core concept in any organization. As such, it is
used in the mitigation of the damage done by any event with considerable consequences and
other unanticipated issues that an organization may experience as well as how to better
achieve organizational efficiency and productivity back to normal if not improved conditions.

However, any contingency plan laid out must have the foresight of unexpected disasters
as well as having feasible response efforts. Such plans require a level of organizational
forethought where every available manpower, resource, and asset can be maximized in the
event of a calamity while compensating for the expected losses in efficiency. There is a
structured method of properly carrying out contingency planning. In line with these efforts,
anticipated emergencies and disasters are taken into account while also including emerging
threats into consideration for a more efficient response to these problems. This is shown
whenever the plan is effective and leads to a better outcome. Without such an effort, any
collaborative endeavor within the organization to finally put such plans into motion would be
ineffective and will not resolve any of its anticipated complications. It would be detrimental to
an organization if the contingency planning being done is insufficient and does not encompass
the broad elements and factors that can severely cripple the organization.
Objectives

 To effectively utilize the knowledge and flexibility of leaders

 To promote organizational flexibility in adapting to various situations
 To devise plans and creative solutions to overcome unexpected problems.
 To ascertain that the organization will be functional even after facing a crisis.

Contingency Planning in Disaster Risk Reduction:

- It is the process of establishing arrangements in advance to enable timely, effective and

appropriate response in the event of a hazard or a disaster.
- Providing a well-planned output that can be utilized in an unexpected or possible event
that might occur.
- Usually, contingency planning can be seen in LGUs where it involves the community in
the process of planning.
- Contingency planning serves as a guide that specifies the appropriate steps to take in
preparing for, monitoring for, and carrying out other responsibilities in case of an
emergency. A contingency plan must be available and disseminated to all especially to
those who are not part of the planning.

Contingency Plan of the Municipality of San Simon, Pampanga (MDRRMC):

- Chapter 1: (Situation and Assumptions)

A. Situation – The Municipality of San Simon lies along flood path of Pampanga which
makes it highly vulnerable to severe flooding incident of this kind threatened high risk
barangays and low-lying position of this municipality.
General – The uncertainty of future calamity at the onset of rainy season and climate
change should be anticipated with unforeseen event on known disaster/calamity prone
areas to ensure a maximum safety and lesser effect to life and property to threatened
Barangay of the municipality.

B. Assumptions
1. Typhoons and heavy rains will cause and prolong water flooding at affected
areas.
2. Continuous rain will trigger the Pampanga river to over flown and flashflood
will be threatened barangays along Pampanga river bank.
3. Hasty rescue and evacuation operation will be conducted with difficulties
due to the very limited resources and hesitant of vast majority to force
evacuation.
 4. Looting incident and flood shortage will be experienced.

Chapter 2: General Policies and Objectives

1. Policy Statement on DRRM
- Upholding people life rights to life and humanitarian assistance.
- Adoption of comprehensive, integrated, pro-active and multi-sector approach in
addressing the impacts of disaster including climate change
- Development, promotion and implementation of a comprehensive Municipal Disaster
Risk Reduction and Management Plan
- Mainstreaming DRR and Climate Change in Municipal development plans and
development processes
- Mainstreaming DRR into the peace process and conflict
- Ensuring DRR and CC-Gender responsive measures, sensitive to indigenous knowledge
and respect to human rights
- Strengthening capability building of LGU on DRR
- Vulnerable and marginalized groups
- Engaging the participation of CSO’s private sector and volunteers in DRR
- Promotion of breastfeeding before and during a disaster or emergency
- Ensuring maximum care, assistance and services to affected individuals and families

Chapter 3
1. Chairman
- Shall convene the council as necessary to effectively coordinated the efforts on disaster
preparedness, emergency operations, recovery and rehabilitation activities.
- Shall call on all offices/agencies and instrumentalities of the government and the private
sector for their assistance in preparing for, reacting to and recovering from the effects
of disaster and emergencies.
2. Vice Chairman
- Shall perform the duties of the Chairman in the latter’s absence.

Disaster Operations Officer

1. Assist in analyzing situations, formulate and implement plans necessary for disaster
preparedness and disaster operation.
2. Act as an oversight committee of all disaster rescue, evacuations and rehabilitation
operations in the provinces down to the barangay level.
3. Coordinate the issuance of proper warning and alert messages to concerned authorities
on the existing/impending disaster.
4. Coordinate rescue, evacuation destination, pick-up points and alternate evacuation
routes to evacuation centers in coordination with the different BDRRMC’s.
5. Coordinate with the proper authorities for the public use of pre-designated centers
during disaster.
6. Coordinate the allocation of relief goods and medical requirements for preposition
toevacuation centers and/or to affected municipalities.
 7. Coordinate with other agencies the implementation of rehabilitation efforts for calamity
victims.
8. Shall coordinate with PDRRMC on the effective disaster preparedness and management
program.
9. Advise the Chairman on disaster-related activities.

Intelligence and Disaster Analysis

1. Evaluate information and advise the member of the municipal disaster coordinating
councils of existing/impending disaster.
2. Evaluate information and advise the member of the municipal disaster coordinating
councils of existing/impending disaster.
3. Submit recommendations for the allocations of needed resources.
4. Prepare appropriate recommendations to Sangguniang Bayan for possible declaration of
the existence of a state of calamity of the municipality. The recommendations shall
serve as the basis for the release of 5% calamity fund.

Plans and Operations

1. Determine courses of actions to be taken based on the recommendations of the

Intelligence and Disaster Analysis Unit.
2. Recommend implementations on existing plan.
3. Determine the type of service unit to be utilized in the disaster areas.
4. Maintain and/or supervise programs and operations and determine the necessity
ofutilizing additional service unit
5. Prepare Municipal Multi-hazard and Evacuation Plans.
6. Prepare appropriate reports upon the terminations of disaster operations.

Resources

1. In charge of the procurement and provision of necessary relief goods/supplies in

support to disaster related operations.
2. Coordinate with other relief agencies and NGO’s concerned for possible augmentationof
needed relief supplies (Food and Non-food Items) for disaster relief operations.
3. Maintain resources data bank.

Communication and Warning

1. Provide timely and accurate warning information to the public.

2. Provide access and availability of communication facilities to all concerned.
3. Coordinate with higher authority on the existing and/or impending disaster threat in the
province.
 Transportation and Evacuation

1. Provide transportation facilities and other equipment for use during rescue,
relief and evacuation operation.
2. Ensure availability of all needed transport facilities in coordination with private
bus company and private sector.
3. Taps locally available transportation facilities for operation.
4. Shall be responsible for the dispatch, movement and maintenance of vehicle in
affected
5. Assist in the conduct of search, rescue, relief, recovery, rehabilitation and
evacuation operations.
6. Prepare/implement rerouting schemes for rescue, evacuationand relief
operations.

RESCUE AND RECOVERY

1. Conduct rescue and recovery operations to the disaster stricken areas in coordination
with MDOC.
2. Conduct evacuation of disaster victims and bring them to pre- designated evacuation
centers and safer and/or higher grounds.
3. Assemble pick-up points and staging area.
4. Alert transportation unit and other equipment for deployment.
5. Assist in the organization and training of Barangay Response and Rescue Teams.

HEALTH

1. Preposition/Stockpile of medicines/medical supplies at the Municipal Health Office.

2. Alert government and private hospitals and medical practitioners for possible assistance
in respective localities.
3. Establish medical clinics in the evacuations centers
4.Maintain health and sanitation in the affected areas and evacuation centers.
5. Institute preventive and curative measures to check and control the spread of diseases.
6. Provide transport and pre-hospital management of trauma victims during disaster.
7. Coordinate and supervise all government/non- government entities providing health
services and various evacuations centers.

PUBLIC SAFETY AND ORDER

1.Provide security in the disaster stricken areas in the evacuation centers.

2.Provide traffic assistance to motorist during disaster and/or emergencies.
3. Assist in the monitoring and reporting of disaster events.
4. Assist in the dissemination of warning to the community on the implementing and/or
existing situation.
RELIEF AND REHABILITATION

1. Prepare list of disaster victims for the use of the operating teams during rehabilitations
phase in coordination with DSWD.
2. Undertake emergency relief assistance to victims/evacuees.
3. Provide first aid assistance to victims.
4. Assist in the arrangement and supervision of construction of bunkhouse/evacuation
centers to appropriate government agencies.
5. Designate primary and alternate evacuation centers in coordination with other NGO’s.
6. Preposition/stockpiles of relief goods in the establish evacuation centers.
7. Maintain records of victims, relief goods received and distributed in coordination with
NGO’s

PUBLIC INFORMATION

1. Assist in the dissemination of warning information.

2. Coordinate with the mass media in educating the public on disaster preparedness and
precautionary measures.
3. Prepare press release on disaster situation for widest dissemination to the public.

OPERATION PROCEDURES

A. Population at risk will be evacuated in accordance to procedures established by the

MDRRMC.
B. Priorities shall be determined prior to rescue and evacuations efforts.
C. Rescue and evacuations shall be done as a necessity and as a major responsibility of the
MDRRMC.
D. The Municipal mayor as Chairman shall call the evacuation order.
E. The Chief of Police calls the shots for evacuation in the absence of the Chairman.
F. The Barangay Captain/Chairman of the BDRRMC acts as the overseer for his Barangay.
G. Selected members of affected families shall remain in the affected areas as long as safety
provides to assist and secure the community.
Point Persons

Communication Flow
Criticism of Contingency Planning and Conclusion

In Contingency planning for crisis management: Recipe for success or political fantasy?
(Erikkson & McConnell, 2017) explained in detail that contingency planning was simply the
process of allocating resources, personnel, equipment, tasks, responsibilities as well as the
formation of specific policies and guidance with the hope of maximizing the chances of
successfully responding to any crisis that may arise. They argued however that the theory
assumed that the relationship between contingency planning and actual crisis management is
far simple than it truly is. Their first argument is that while contingency planning is often
successful in the pre-crisis stage, it does not guarantee a successful response to every crisis that
may occur. Meanwhile they also stated that failures in planning during the pre-crisis stage does
not automatically lead to a flawed response to a problem. Their main reason on why this occurs
is that there are factors that can influence how organizations and individuals can effectively
respond to a crisis whereby the problems that can arise are only partially anticipated for and
thus limiting the plans on what course of action to take.

Any entity with a structured organizational framework will from time to time encounter
scenarios where the rapid progress of dangers, hazards, threats and the uncomfortable rise of
uncertainty will lead to situations where the leadership must swiftly issue decisions as
everything around them collapses while members of the organization rush to carry out their
new objectives. During such times of emergency, productivity and efficiency overall drops as
the organization enters a period of attempting to mitigate the damages and making do with the
resources left after the crisis. This will then lead to a period where the organization will try to
recover their losses and hopefully go back to a state of normalcy in the shortest time possible.
In such events, the leadership and administrative strategies need to quickly shift its attitude
from a “business as usual” environment to something with an urgency similar to a call for
“general quarters”

What separates contingency planning from an ordinary plan is that it requires its
planners to imagine extraordinary scenarios otherwise classified as unpredictable, uncertain,
and unthinkable while at the same time have responders that are able to respond to them
efficiently and effectively. This however generates problems that start from the planning phase
as the imagination of contingency planners are severely limited by what they had seen or
experienced and often fail if not ignore the possibility of completely new and unique set of
crises occurring. The lack of foresight in terms of what these new emerging hazards are and
their exact nature create contingency plans well suited for old threats but cripplingly
insufficient against new ones.
Another issue is how the preparations even for anticipated disasters are done in a
controlled and safe environment which fails to encompass all of the problems that may arise in
an actual hazardous event. An example may be how fire and earthquake drills while excellent in
guiding the participants on the proper procedures of taking cover, precautions and eventually
evacuation do not necessarily simulate the reality of individuals panicking, hazards suddenly
arising during evacuations and emergency services failing to respond on time. While
contingency planners don’t really need to set fire to an actual building and watch how the
people inside might react, they must however broaden their considerations of every aspect of
a given emergency both from the characteristics and consequences of a disaster and the human
response to such a crisis that may affect how their responders can carry out their tasks.

Of course, no person is capable of predicting the future nor will anybody be able to plan
out every possible scenario that may arise and think of a perfect response. However, even with
the limitations of contingency planners and their plans, it is still preferable to have a solid “Plan
B” as its absence is generally considered a formula for chaos, confusion and critical
mismanagement It is best to remember that contingency planning is not something that is
done once and ignored until an actual emergency happens but rather a continuous cycle of
planners exploiting technological and administrative advances and incorporating them to their
frameworks to better cope with expected calamities while at the same time constantly thinking
and anticipating for new emergencies that they may encounter.

Contingency Theory and Planning can be summarized as the concept of how

organizations shape their strategies, resource allocation, structure and objectives in the face of
potential unexpected crisis and threats. It is a concept where its practical application hopes to
create a resilient organizational framework by being able to minimize damage, resist and
survive any perceived and unperceived danger while also having the capacity to quickly recover
in the shortest possible time without sacrificing future growth. While contingency planning
indeed has shortcomings coming from the human limitations of its planners and the
unpredictable nature of emerging hazards and threats, having the proper manpower, detailed
organization and resources to face such emergencies before they occur will always be a better
course of action than preparing nothing at all.