IDENTIFIKASI DATA

Time Series Plot

Time Series Plot of jumlah wisatawann

1800000

1600000
jumlah wisatawann

1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Year
 Box-Cox Plot of jumlah wisatawann
Lower CL Upper CL
200000 Lambda
(using 95.0% confidence)
Estimate 0,61
180000
Lower CL -1,19
Upper CL 2,05
160000 Rounded Value 0,50
StDev

140000

120000

100000 Limit

-5,0 -2,5 0,0 2,5 5,0

Lambda

Box-Cox Plot of TRANS 1

Lower CL Upper CL
60,0 Lambda
(using 95.0% confidence)

57,5 Estimate 1,21

Lower CL -2,03
Upper CL 4,28
55,0
Rounded Value 1,00
StDev

52,5

50,0 Limit

47,5

45,0

-5,0 -2,5 0,0 2,5 5,0

Lambda
 Autocorrelation Function for TRANS 1
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
Autocorrelation

0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0

1 2 3 4 5
Lag

Autocorrelation Function for C6

(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
Autocorrelation

0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0

1 2 3 4 5
Lag
 Partial Autocorrelation Function for C6
(with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)

1,0
0,8
0,6
Partial Autocorrelation

0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0

1 2 3 4 5
Lag

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 2,95880E+11 0,100
1 2,88851E+11 0,250
2 2,88451E+11 0,292
3 2,88448E+11 0,295
4 2,88448E+11 0,295
5 2,88448E+11 0,296

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 0,2955 0,2923 1,01 0,326

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 288158073296 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16950474900 DF = 17

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,1 * * *
DF 11 * * *
P-Value 0,523 * * *
————— 21/01/2019 21:21:23 ————————————————————

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Time Series Plot of tahun

Time Series Plot of jumlah wisatawann

Time Series Plot of jumlah wisatawann

Time Series Plot of jumlah wisatawann

Trend Analysis for jumlah wisatawann

Data jumlah wisatawann

Length 19
NMissing 0

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 612424 + 41892*t

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 1,10890E+01
MAD 1,09108E+05
MSD 1,84760E+10

Trend Analysis Plot for jumlah wisatawann

Time Series Plot of jumlah wisatawann

Time Series Plot of jumlah wisatawann

Box-Cox Plot of jumlah wisatawann

Box-Cox Plot of jumlah wisatawann

Box-Cox Plot of TRANS 1

Autocorrelation Function: TRANS 1

Lag ACF T LBQ

1 0,658430 2,87 9,61
2 0,441488 1,41 14,18
3 0,369150 1,07 17,58
4 0,296550 0,81 19,92
5 0,208810 0,55 21,16

Autocorrelation for TRANS 1

Autocorrelation Function: C6

Lag ACF T LBQ

1 0,008930 0,04 0,00
2 -0,364534 -1,55 2,99
3 0,065511 0,25 3,09
4 0,213743 0,80 4,27
5 -0,042256 -0,15 4,32

Autocorrelation for C6

Partial Autocorrelation Function: C6

Lag PACF T
1 0,008930 0,04
2 -0,364643 -1,55
3 0,084443 0,36
4 0,089307 0,38
5 0,000669 0,00

Partial Autocorrelation for C6

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 2,95880E+11 0,100
1 2,88851E+11 0,250
2 2,88451E+11 0,292
3 2,88448E+11 0,295
4 2,88448E+11 0,295
5 2,88448E+11 0,296

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 0,2955 0,2923 1,01 0,326

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 288158073296 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16950474900 DF = 17

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,1 * * *
DF 11 * * *
P-Value 0,523 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 3,18313E+11 0,100
1 2,99972E+11 -0,050
2 2,86516E+11 -0,200
3 2,76805E+11 -0,350
4 2,72594E+11 -0,460
5 2,71956E+11 -0,499
6 2,71872E+11 -0,513
7 2,71860E+11 -0,518
8 2,71858E+11 -0,519
9 2,71858E+11 -0,520
10 2,71858E+11 -0,520

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

MA 1 -0,5204 0,2275 -2,29 0,035

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 271625710756 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 15977982986 DF = 17

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7,3 * * *
DF 11 * * *
P-Value 0,772 * * *
ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 3,05426E+11 0,100 0,100
1 2,88424E+11 0,223 -0,024
2 2,84433E+11 0,088 -0,174
3 2,79642E+11 -0,046 -0,324
4 2,74510E+11 -0,177 -0,474
5 2,69517E+11 -0,291 -0,624
6 2,66854E+11 -0,278 -0,693
7 2,66807E+11 -0,265 -0,693
8 2,66805E+11 -0,266 -0,696
9 2,66805E+11 -0,267 -0,697
10 2,66805E+11 -0,267 -0,697

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 -0,2668 0,5272 -0,51 0,620
MA 1 -0,6966 0,3736 -1,86 0,081

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 264986110323 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16561631895 DF = 16

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6,2 * * *
DF 10 * * *
P-Value 0,800 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 3,12844E+11 0,100 0,100 0,100
1 3,08264E+11 0,250 0,087 0,236
2 3,04090E+11 0,400 0,074 0,376
3 2,99663E+11 0,550 0,060 0,518
4 2,94465E+11 0,700 0,046 0,661
5 2,87530E+11 0,850 0,027 0,807
6 2,62501E+11 1,000 -0,012 0,890
7 2,56558E+11 1,006 -0,005 0,899
8 2,52139E+11 1,006 -0,007 0,954
9 2,51550E+11 1,007 -0,008 0,963
10 2,51500E+11 1,007 -0,008 0,967
11 2,51378E+11 1,007 -0,008 0,968
12 2,51343E+11 1,007 -0,008 0,968

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

* WARNING * Back forecasts not dying out rapidly

Back forecasts (after differencing)

Lag -97 - -92 69314,360 69365,616 69416,910 69468,242 69519,611

Lag -91 - -86 69622,465 69673,949 69725,471 69777,031 69828,630
Lag -85 - -80 69931,940 69983,653 70035,404 70087,194 70139,021
Lag -79 - -74 70242,791 70294,734 70346,715 70398,735 70450,793
Lag -73 - -68 70555,024 70607,198 70659,410 70711,660 70763,950
Lag -67 - -62 70868,645 70921,050 70973,494 71025,977 71078,499
Lag -61 - -56 71183,659 71236,298 71288,975 71341,691 71394,446
Lag -55 - -50 71500,074 71552,946 71605,858 71658,808 71711,798
Lag -49 - -44 71817,895 71871,003 71924,149 71977,335 72030,561
Lag -43 - -38 72137,129 72190,473 72243,856 72297,278 72350,740
Lag -37 - -32 72457,782 72511,363 72564,983 72618,643 72672,343
Lag -31 - -26 72779,861 72833,679 72887,538 72941,436 72995,375
Lag -25 - -20 73103,371 73157,429 73211,527 73265,665 73319,843
Lag -19 - -14 73428,319 73482,617 73536,956 73591,334 73645,753
Lag -13 - -8 73754,711 73809,251 73863,831 73918,451 73973,112
Lag -7 - -2 74082,555 74137,337 74192,159 74247,022 74301,926
Lag -1 - 0 74410,952 74353,773

Lag -97 - -92 69571,019

Lag -91 - -86 69880,266
Lag -85 - -80 70190,887
Lag -79 - -74 70502,889
Lag -73 - -68 70816,278
Lag -67 - -62 71131,060
Lag -61 - -56 71447,241
Lag -55 - -50 71764,827
Lag -49 - -44 72083,825
Lag -43 - -38 72404,241
Lag -37 - -32 72726,082
Lag -31 - -26 73049,353
Lag -25 - -20 73374,061
Lag -19 - -14 73700,212
Lag -13 - -8 74027,813
Lag -7 - -2 74356,863
Lag -1 - 0

Back forecast residuals

Lag -97 - -92 101,581 199,976 295,285 387,609 477,043 563,680

Lag -91 - -86 647,610 728,921 807,695 884,015 957,960 1029,605
Lag -85 - -80 1099,025 1166,292 1231,474 1294,639 1355,851 1415,173
Lag -79 - -74 1472,666 1528,389 1582,399 1634,750 1685,496 1734,689
Lag -73 - -68 1782,378 1828,612 1873,438 1916,901 1959,045 1999,912
Lag -67 - -62 2039,543 2077,978 2115,256 2151,413 2186,486 2220,510
Lag -61 - -56 2253,518 2285,544 2316,618 2346,771 2376,033 2404,433
Lag -55 - -50 2431,998 2458,755 2484,731 2509,950 2534,437 2558,215
Lag -49 - -44 2581,307 2603,735 2625,521 2646,685 2667,248 2687,228
Lag -43 - -38 2706,645 2725,516 2743,860 2761,692 2779,031 2795,890
Lag -37 - -32 2812,287 2828,236 2843,751 2858,847 2873,536 2887,833
Lag -31 - -26 2901,749 2915,297 2928,489 2941,336 2953,849 2966,040
Lag -25 - -20 2977,919 2989,495 3000,779 3011,780 3022,506 3032,968
Lag -19 - -14 3043,173 3053,131 3062,848 3072,332 3081,592 3090,634
Lag -13 - -8 3099,466 3108,094 3116,525 3124,765 3132,821 3140,698
Lag -7 - -2 3148,402 3155,939 3163,315 3170,534 3177,601 3184,515
Lag -1 - 0 3190,399 3084,872
Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 1,0072 0,3328 3,03 0,008
AR 2 -0,0080 0,3272 -0,02 0,981
MA 1 0,9679 0,2269 4,27 0,001

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 250757060029 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16717137335 DF = 15

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8,2 * * *
DF 9 * * *
P-Value 0,517 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 2,15610E+13 0,100 0,100
1 1,17984E+13 0,250 -0,050
2 8,92907E+12 0,266 -0,200
3 5,04951E+12 0,405 -0,350
4 2,94237E+12 0,555 -0,407
5 1,55906E+12 0,705 -0,443
6 6,97873E+11 0,855 -0,462
7 2,70883E+11 1,005 -0,459
8 2,69848E+11 1,004 -0,490
9 2,69771E+11 1,003 -0,503

Unable to reduce sum of squares any further

* WARNING * Back forecasts not dying out rapidly

Back forecasts (after differencing)

Lag -98 - -93 964424,696 961488,635 958561,512 955643,300 952733,972

Lag -92 - -87 946941,861 944059,023 941184,962 938319,651 935463,063
Lag -86 - -81 929775,949 926945,371 924123,410 921310,040 918505,236
Lag -80 - -75 912921,217 910141,950 907371,145 904608,776 901854,816
Lag -74 - -69 896372,022 893643,138 890922,561 888210,267 885506,230
Lag -68 - -63 880122,827 877443,412 874772,153 872109,026 869454,007
Lag -62 - -57 864168,194 861537,349 858914,515 856299,665 853692,775
Lag -56 - -51 848502,781 845919,628 843344,340 840776,891 838217,258
Lag -50 - -45 833121,347 830585,021 828056,416 825535,510 823022,278
Lag -44 - -39 818018,744 815528,395 813045,629 810570,420 808102,748
Lag -38 - -33 803189,916 800744,712 798306,953 795876,614 793453,675
Lag -32 - -27 788629,902 786229,024 783835,455 781449,174 779070,156
Lag -26 - -21 774333,828 771976,472 769626,294 767283,270 764947,379
Lag -20 - -15 760296,909 757982,287 755674,712 753374,161 751080,615
Lag -14 - -9 746514,448 744241,785 741976,040 739717,194 737465,224
Lag -8 - -3 732981,831 730750,366 728525,695 726307,796 724096,650
Lag -2 - 0 719694,531 717503,517 715319,174
Lag -98 - -93 949833,501
Lag -92 - -87 932615,171
Lag -86 - -81 915708,970
Lag -80 - -75 899109,240
Lag -74 - -69 882810,425
Lag -68 - -63 866807,071
Lag -62 - -57 851093,822
Lag -56 - -51 835665,418
Lag -50 - -45 820516,697
Lag -44 - -39 805642,587
Lag -38 - -33 791038,111
Lag -32 - -27 776698,382
Lag -26 - -21 762618,599
Lag -20 - -15 748794,051
Lag -14 - -9 735220,110
Lag -8 - -3 721892,235
Lag -2 - 0

Back forecast residuals

Lag -98 - -93 -5899,048 -2912,455 -4397,522 -3632,328 -3999,609

Lag -92 - -87 -3881,292 -3821,258 -3833,890 -3810,007 -3804,553
Lag -86 - -81 -3779,897 -3767,606 -3756,530 -3744,896 -3733,595
Lag -80 - -75 -3710,872 -3699,562 -3688,305 -3677,074 -3665,881
Lag -74 - -69 -3643,594 -3632,501 -3621,443 -3610,418 -3599,426
Lag -68 - -63 -3577,544 -3566,652 -3555,794 -3544,969 -3534,177
Lag -62 - -57 -3512,691 -3501,997 -3491,336 -3480,707 -3470,110
Lag -56 - -51 -3449,014 -3438,514 -3428,046 -3417,609 -3407,205
Lag -50 - -45 -3386,491 -3376,181 -3365,903 -3355,656 -3345,440
Lag -44 - -39 -3325,102 -3314,979 -3304,887 -3294,825 -3284,795
Lag -38 - -33 -3264,825 -3254,886 -3244,977 -3235,098 -3225,249
Lag -32 - -27 -3205,641 -3195,882 -3186,153 -3176,453 -3166,782
Lag -26 - -21 -3147,530 -3137,948 -3128,395 -3118,871 -3109,376
Lag -20 - -15 -3090,473 -3081,064 -3071,684 -3062,333 -3053,010
Lag -14 - -9 -3034,449 -3025,211 -3016,001 -3006,820 -2997,666
Lag -8 - -3 -2979,442 -2970,371 -2961,328 -2952,313 -2943,325
Lag -2 - 0 -2925,431 -2916,525 -2907,646

Lag -98 - -93 -3797,037

Lag -92 - -87 -3789,878
Lag -86 - -81 -3722,178
Lag -80 - -75 -3654,720
Lag -74 - -69 -3588,468
Lag -68 - -63 -3523,417
Lag -62 - -57 -3459,546
Lag -56 - -51 -3396,832
Lag -50 - -45 -3335,255
Lag -44 - -39 -3274,795
Lag -38 - -33 -3215,430
Lag -32 - -27 -3157,142
Lag -26 - -21 -3099,910
Lag -20 - -15 -3043,715
Lag -14 - -9 -2988,540
Lag -8 - -3 -2934,364
Lag -2 - 0

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 1,0031 0,0437 22,95 0,000
MA 1 -0,5032 0,2377 -2,12 0,049

Number of observations: 19
Residuals: SS = 268609495492 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 15800558558 DF = 17

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 8,9 * * *
DF 10 * * *
P-Value 0,546 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 2,60982E+13 0,100
1 1,97285E+13 -0,050
2 1,54558E+13 -0,200
3 1,24507E+13 -0,350
4 1,02569E+13 -0,500
5 8,60877E+12 -0,650
6 7,35191E+12 -0,800
7 7,26573E+12 -0,950
8 6,75632E+12 -0,913
9 6,75566E+12 -0,908
10 6,75514E+12 -0,911
11 6,75513E+12 -0,909

Unable to reduce sum of squares any further

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

MA 1 -0,9094 0,1964 -4,63 0,000

Number of observations: 19
Residuals: SS = 6674470317704 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 370803906539 DF = 18

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 22,4 * * *
DF 11 * * *
P-Value 0,022 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 2,95880E+11 0,100
 1 2,88851E+11 0,250
2 2,88451E+11 0,292
3 2,88448E+11 0,295
4 2,88448E+11 0,295
5 2,88448E+11 0,296

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 0,2955 0,2923 1,01 0,326

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 288158073296 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16950474900 DF = 17

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,1 * * *
DF 11 * * *
P-Value 0,523 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 3,18313E+11 0,100
1 2,99972E+11 -0,050
2 2,86516E+11 -0,200
3 2,76805E+11 -0,350
4 2,72594E+11 -0,460
5 2,71956E+11 -0,499
6 2,71872E+11 -0,513
7 2,71860E+11 -0,518
8 2,71858E+11 -0,519
9 2,71858E+11 -0,520
10 2,71858E+11 -0,520

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

MA 1 -0,5204 0,2275 -2,29 0,035

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 271625710756 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 15977982986 DF = 17

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 7,3 * * *
DF 11 * * *
P-Value 0,772 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 2,95880E+11 0,100
1 2,88851E+11 0,250
2 2,88451E+11 0,292
3 2,88448E+11 0,295
4 2,88448E+11 0,295
5 2,88448E+11 0,296

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 0,2955 0,2923 1,01 0,326

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 288158073296 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16950474900 DF = 17

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 10,1 * * *
DF 11 * * *
P-Value 0,523 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 3,05426E+11 0,100 0,100
1 2,88424E+11 0,223 -0,024
2 2,84433E+11 0,088 -0,174
3 2,79642E+11 -0,046 -0,324
4 2,74510E+11 -0,177 -0,474
5 2,69517E+11 -0,291 -0,624
6 2,66854E+11 -0,278 -0,693
7 2,66807E+11 -0,265 -0,693
8 2,66805E+11 -0,266 -0,696
9 2,66805E+11 -0,267 -0,697
10 2,66805E+11 -0,267 -0,697

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 -0,2668 0,5272 -0,51 0,620
MA 1 -0,6966 0,3736 -1,86 0,081

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 264986110323 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16561631895 DF = 16

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6,2 * * *
DF 10 * * *
P-Value 0,800 * * *

ARIMA Model: jumlah wisatawann

Estimates at each iteration

Iteration SSE Parameters

0 3,05426E+11 0,100 0,100
1 2,88424E+11 0,223 -0,024
2 2,84433E+11 0,088 -0,174
3 2,79642E+11 -0,046 -0,324
4 2,74510E+11 -0,177 -0,474
5 2,69517E+11 -0,291 -0,624
6 2,66854E+11 -0,278 -0,693
7 2,66807E+11 -0,265 -0,693
8 2,66805E+11 -0,266 -0,696
9 2,66805E+11 -0,267 -0,697
10 2,66805E+11 -0,267 -0,697

Relative change in each estimate less than 0,0010

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P

AR 1 -0,2668 0,5272 -0,51 0,620
MA 1 -0,6966 0,3736 -1,86 0,081

Differencing: 1 regular difference

Number of observations: Original series 19, after differencing 18
Residuals: SS = 264986110323 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 16561631895 DF = 16

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6,2 * * *
DF 10 * * *
P-Value 0,800 * * *
Forecasts from period 19

95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual
20 1877217 1624930 2129505
21 1847854 1407652 2288055
22 1855687 1304442 2406932
23 1853597 1206183 2501012
24 1854155 1124068 2584241
25 1854006 1049470 2658542
26 1854046 981446 2726646
27 1854035 918295 2789776
28 1854038 859160 2848916
29 1854037 803344 2904731