“Where Did You Get This Number?

” with Anthony Salvanto

Episode: [11/13/19]
Guest: CBS News 2020 Campaign Reporter Tim Perry

Transcript:
CBSN Anchor Montage
[00:00:00]
In our daily 2020 Trail Markers, former congressman Beto O’Rourke ended his
presidential campaign Friday…
Kristen Gillibrand, the New York senator, is dropping out of the 2020 presidential
race…
Well that was Washington governor Jay Inslee announcing the end of his presidential
run. The 68-year-old…
Anthony
[00:00:15]
Yes, the campaigns started with the largest field in Democratic primary history.
Candidates vying for the chance to take on President Trump next fall and it’s the big
numbers, those polling in the top tier, that do get most of the attention. That’s the 64%
considering Elizabeth Warren, the 51% considering Joe Biden and so forth.
But what can we learn from the campaigns who are trailing? Can we learn from those
who have faded or even dropped out? What do we learn about the shape of the race?
About what might change? About the impact of money and politics, and what voters say
they want versus what they really want.
We will talk to a CBS News political reporter who has been on the road with Beto
O’Rourke and Kamala Harris, and that is Tim Perry. I am Anthony Salvanto and
welcome to this episode of “Where Did You Get This Number?”.
[00:01:08]
This is an honor and a thrill. This is awesome. Back from the road, covering on the
ground, 2020. The Tim Perry. Of CBS News.
Tim
[00:01:25]
Anthony, let me just thank you for having me. This has been the honor of all of the
honors of my life to be in the studio with you, just laying out everything that I have.
Anthony
[00:01:35]
Full disclosure, listeners, we're here with CBS News political reporter Tim Perry, who is
back from covering the campaign on the road in 2020. And has been for how long now?

Tim
[00:01:46]
We started in May. Or I guess we trained in April and then we got our assignments the
end of April. And then I started covering. Back in May, I had four candidates. I had Beto
O’Rourke who's no longer in the race. I had Governor Jay Inslee, who's no longer in the
race. I had a former HUD secretary--
Anthony
[00:02:05]
They must be glad to see you show up.
Tim
[00:02:08]
Yes. Yes. That's kind of a joke on the trail right now, is that when I show up, things that
don't always go so well. But, you know, I just do what I can. But I also have former HUD
Secretary Julian Castro and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock. And now I just got Senator
Kamala Harris back in August or September. So a lot of candidates to juggle.
Anthony
[00:02:32]
And I want to talk about that. And, you know, disclosure for listeners. You know, Tim
and I go back and we back--you were working at Face the Nation. We were doing a lot
of polling there. Still are. And Tim would ask me how polls work, but not just in a
intellectual, “how do polls work?” way. In a very skeptical way, which I appreciate. You
got to push back on this stuff.
Tim
[00:02:57]
And you had the best analogy for me. You said it was like a soup--or no I’m sorry, a stew.
And I still think that was one of the craziest things I've ever heard, but it worked.
Anthony
[00:03:06]
I actually worked that up. I put it my book. I talked about how doing a poll was like
taking a bowl of my grandmother’s spaghetti sauce, which was to say that you know,
she made this whole vat. It had pieces of meat and pieces of garlic and salt, etc.
Tim
[00:03:22]
Some onions and some peppers.
Anthony
[00:03:23]
Oh, definitely onions, peppers, all of that. Right. I've you know, I've got to put down the
recipe somewhere. It’s just, she never wrote it down.

Tim
[00:03:29]
I'm sure she loves or she would love you giving out her secrets.
Anthony
[00:03:33]
She would. No, she never wrote it down.
Tim
[00:03:35]
Oh. Those are the best recipes.
Anthony
[00:03:37]
They are the best recipes. So I you know, I might could try to, you know, recreate it, but
what it was is that for the-- in the polling analogy anyway, what happens is you don't eat
all of it, though you well could and it’d be great. But what you get in your bowl is, you
get a piece of garlic that is like the other pieces of garlic in the bowl. You get a meatball
that is like the other meat balls in the bowl. And so you get a representative sample.
And that's what polling is trying to do. Getting people who represent the other people
you don't talk to. OK, so now that I'm getting hungry, let's get back to the campaign. So
you're out there. You mentioned you were out there with Beto O’Rourke, right? In the
summer time, he was never leading in the polls. He was never a high, top-tier
candidate, but he had more consideration anyway. People thinking about voting for him
currently than did right before he left the race. What was it like for you on a campaign
where the person was struggling? What was different about that campaign as opposed
to--
Tim
[00:04:42]
Like a Warren or like a Bernie?
Anthony
[00:04:44]
Yeah. What were they doing differently?
Tim
[00:04:45]
Um, we were lucky enough that we could also go to other events. So I was also like--I
got to go to at least like one Warren event or I got to go to at least one Biden event so I
could kind of compare. And the one thing I will say is that when you are not doing as
well in the polls as you would like, there is much more of a need for us to be there. Us
as in the embeds, the reporters. And so, I could ask him three questions if I wanted to.
He was very, very, very accessible to people like me. They needed the media. He needed
a camera in front of him. We gaggled sometimes two times a day.

Anthony
[00:05:24]
A gaggle is when the candidate comes out--
Tim
[00:05:26]
Yes, sorry, sorry. A gaggle is when they come over and they talk to you after the event or
sometimes before the event. And you just have a group of reporters who are just yelling
out questions. And for us at a O’Rourke gaggle, he knew all of us by our--like he knew
who we were. And so we didn't have to yell out. It was, “Tim. What's your question?”
And sometimes money means a lot, especially these events. And for someone like him
who wasn't raising the same amounts of money that say your Senator Warrens, or your
Bernies, at one point your Bidens or your Buttigiegs, the events weren’t always the
same. You know, just things like having a riser at an event, like it doesn't sound like that
big of a deal, but like, that's the difference between getting a shot of your candidate or
getting the shot of the back of someone's head.
Anthony
[00:06:31]
Let me ask you this, Tim. Is there something that you saw. positive or negative, when
you had that kind of access, that kind of one on one with the candidate that you
described, where you came away and said, boy, wouldn't it be interesting if the general
public saw this? Knew this? Could see this?
Tim
[00:06:35]
Oh, my God. Absolutely. I, you know, I always tell my friends that like, one of the biggest
misunderstandings about him, that wasn't always fair, and there are a lot of criticisms
about him that were fair, but one of the critiques about him that I think most people
didn't fully always understand was just how versed he was in policy. The last full trip I
took with him, we went to a weed distillery, we went to a homeless shelter, we went, uh,
we met with victims of gun violence. We met with some of the survivors of Parkland and
the Columbine shooting and the Aurora shooting. And he knows his stuff. And the
people who--you talk to them after, and they're always like, the types of questions he's
asking, these aren't questions that like that he learned to ask the night before. He knew
the policy.
Anthony
[00:07:21]
Was it your sense at those events that people got those details and yet, Democrats who
often say they want particulars of policy and they want to hear all these details, did he
not communicate a larger theme that resonated then? What's, you know, sort of put on
a pundit hat here for a minute, but did something not connect, not resonate with the
audience that it was a broader vision then?
Tim
[00:07:47]
Well, I mean, I don't know if we were always displaying those. You know, I mean, like, I
don't know how much of those conversations were making it out for the world to see.
When you get your biggest audiences during these debates, it's hard to really fully show
how well you know policy.
Anthony
[00:08:08]
Because you have a minute to speak.
Tim
[00:08:09]
You have a minute to speak and a lot of it's just, so-and-so says this, how do you respond
to them? As opposed to what does your plan actually say, or like, what are you actually
going to do? So, he was the first candidate to put out a climate plan. And I covered Jay
Inslee, who was the climate candidate. You know what I mean? Like, he had detailed
policy that was going out. But I don't know if people are always going through and
reading through those policies.
Anthony
[00:08:35]
When you see things like that happen and I turn around as a pollster and keep saying,
oh, yeah. Democrats say they care about climate change. That's a number one issue,
right and it is. Only second to health care anyway, right, and it's so important. And then
you see candidates out there. Jay Inslee, Beto with his plan talking about it. Does it ever
make you go, wait a second, I'm just seeing something different on the ground than the
polls are saying because how can Democrats say that they want this and here's a
candidate delivering it. Is it in their messaging or is it just maybe, hey, I don't buy what
those polls are telling me?
Tim
[00:09:09]
I don't know if it's all--I don't know if it's the polls as much as I think, again, like what is
getting covered and what are people seeing at home? It's the media effect. I mean we
have--we go to a town hall almost every night during the week with these candidates
and they're all taking questions. And when I started traveling with Harris, she was kind
of on the downward tick. And so she had to take more and more questions from the
audience. She had to be a little bit more engaged with the audience than maybe some
of the other top tier candidates have to.
And I'm not saying that the people who are crushing it aren't taking questions. It's just I
don't know how often, you know, the front runners are knocking--you know, Kamala’s
making dinner at Iowans like, at their home. She's doing like a supper at their house.
You know, cooking dinner with her supporters and taking one-on-one questions. This is
like a new thing that they're doing ‘cause she's going all in on Iowa. And so at least
once a week now, I think is what they want to do. They're going to be having her in
homes making them food. I don't know if Senator Warren has to do that.
Anthony
[00:10:15]
So, they're rating the candidate on how often they see them.
Tim
[00:10:18]
Exactly. And a lot of times it's like, I want to meet you four times before I make up my
mind on if I'm going to vote for you. I had never met a candidate before this and I had
still voted. So, you know, it's just--there's a higher expectation.
Anthony
[00:10:33]
Tim we got to--we’re going to take a break. And when we come back on the other side, I
want to ask more details about the Harris campaign. How you’re covering that. We’ll be
back in a sec.
BREAK [00:10:43]
Sen. Kamala Harris in Iowa 11-10-19
[00:10:52]
I’m here in Fort Dodge. I am heading to Des Moines. We have been—I’m practically
living in Iowa, but doing the work of everything from being with families in their living
rooms and cooking with families to doing larger events with hundreds of people. And
it’s about earning the support.
Anthony
[00:11:13]
And we are back. We are here with Tim Perry, CBS News Political Reporter. Tim, back
from the road. Thank you for joining.
Tim
[00:11:19]
And we're here with Anthony Salvanto. I want you to plug yourself.
Anthony
[00:11:24]
I appreciate it. I do. But look, you're the one bringing the road knowledge here back
from these campaigns. And we were talking before the break about Kamala Harris'
campaign. We watched in the polling, her go this summer, we had her at 53 percent of
Democratic voters were at least considering her. Not voting for her yet, but at least
considering her. And then that dropped and that dropped and, you know, now it went
down to 36 percent. That's still, you know, decent, but it's not what it was. And the
actual number of people giving her first choice vote has also dropped, in the single
digits. Is there a sense or were you talking to people on background in the campaign,
what they think brought about that change?
Tim
[00:12:10]
I think one of the things that the campaign likes to stress and it's something that I do
tend to agree with them more on, is it's still really early and the amount of people
who've made up their mind is low. And that’s something we always have to keep in
perspective. Now, I do think that momentum means a lot. And obviously, money. If
you're not polling as high and the donors kind of dry up. And we're seeing that a lot
with like Mayor Pete. He's taking a lot of the donors away from her.
Anthony
[00:12:38]
It becomes sort of a vicious cycle.

Tim
[00:12:39]
It becomes a very vicious cycle. I will say that I think part of her downward tick, kind of
that surrounds the debates. She had a very strong first debate where she went after
former vice president, Joe Biden.
Anthony
[00:12:54]
Let’s roll that sound from NBC.
Kamala Harris at 1st Democratic Debate 6-27-19 (NBC)
[00:12:56]
You also worked with them to oppose busing. And, you know, there was a little girl in
California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools. And she was
bused to school everyday. And that little girl was me.
Joe Biden at 1st Democratic Debate 6-27-19 (NBC)
[00:13:13]
Everything I’ve done in my career—I ran because of civil rights. I continue to make
fundamental changes in civil rights. And those civil rights by the way, include not just
only African Americans, but the LGBT community.
Tim
[00:13:25]

But the second debate where Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard kind of took a tour with
her past as a prosecutor and as the attorney general of California. Harris didn't seem to
be prepared to answer those questions, and those are questions, you know, that have
been around for forever.
Anthony
[00:13:42]
Tim, we have that clip. Let me play it from CNN.
Tulsi Gabbard at 2nd Democratic Debate 7-31-19 (CNN)
[00:13:44]
There are too many examples to cite, but she put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana
violations, then laughed about it when asked if she ever smoked marijuana. She blocked
evidence that would have freed an innocent man from death row until the courts forced
her to do so.
Kamala Harris at 2nd Democratic Debate 7-31-19 (CNN)
[00:14:02]
And I am proud of making a decision to not just give fancy speeches or be in a
legislative body and give speeches on the floor, but actually doing the work, of being in
the position to use the power that I had to reform a system that is badly in need of
reform. That is why we created initiatives that were about re-entering former offenders
and getting them counseling. It is why and because I know that criminal justice system
is so broken that I am an advocate for what we need to do to not only decriminalize, but
legalize marijuana…
Tim
[00:14:31]
And I think one of the things that people liked about Harris was the fact that they--they
saw a fighter in her and they see someone who can go toe to toe with Donald Trump on
a debate stage. And if you can't handle those attacks coming from Tulsi Gabbard, that
kind of eats away at the core reason why people were into you.
You know, one of the biggest applauses that she gets on her stump is when she talks
about her grilling former Attorney General Sessions or Attorney General Barr, and ‘I
can't wait to be on the stage with Donald Trump.’ And the crowd goes crazy for stuff
like that. They love that stuff. But, when she couldn't handle that moment during the
second debate in Detroit, I think a lot of people saw her as not being so prepared.
And a prosecutor, one of things you think of with prosecutor is strength and being
prepared. And if you're not showing that early on in the primary against a Tulsi
Gabbard, why would you be able to show that against President Trump, who's a great
showman and who loves to put on a good show? Does that make sense?
Anthony
[00:15:33]
I want to follow up on that too, and say, well, is it that particular policy or that her
particular policies from when she was attorney general that may have hurt her
standing, especially with the constituencies among the Democratic base, where they
felt like that wasn't the kind of--those weren't the kinds of policies that they would like
to pick in a candidate?
Tim
[00:15:57]
You know what's funny, especially about her record, is you don't talk to a lot of
Democratic voters who really know her record. They don't know what she did as
attorney general. They've just heard, “Oh, she was a prosecutor? Bad,” especially
younger black voters. I was with her at Benedict College in South Carolina a few
weekends ago and one of the questions that came up was this meme that's going
around on social media of her dressed as a cop and like arresting someone. It's like her
face Photoshopped on this meme and obviously she's not a--she's never been a cop.
But that's just something that’s sticking with a lot of the younger black voters who see,
you know, “you were a prosecutor. Historically, prosecutors have not been good for
people who look like me. Young, black or brown people. So why should I trust you?” And
her argument is, I was trying to fix a broken system from within. And I think one of the
things that she probably could have done a little bit better early on is kind of explaining
her record and explaining where she's been on some of these hot button issues. But I
don't know if I've gotten that from her and I don't know if voters in particular have
gotten so much of that from her.
Tim
[00:17:10]
I have a question for you now, if you don't mind me asking. Because obviously last week
The New York Times came out with the article that had, this is the most diverse field--
Democratic field that we can think of. Yet the top tier--
Anthony
[00:17:26]
It’s the most diverse ever.
Tim
[00:17:27]
Yeah, most diverse ever. I didn't, I mean, I felt like that was true. I just didn’t want to
say it. But the top tier candidates are all white. And do you think that that has
something to do with the fact that the first two states in the states, the--really the state
that gets the most amount of attention right now is Iowa, where only 4% of that state is
black?
[00:17:45]
Anthony
Well, two things. One is that, you know, you're right about the diversity of those early
states relative to the rest of those Super Tuesday states.
In fact the topic you raised is being discussed on the campaign trail. This is a clip of
Julián Castro.
Julián Castro in Cedar Rapids, Iowa 11-11-19
[00:18:01]
We can’t say to black women, “Oh, thank you, thank you, you’re the ones that are
powering our victories in places like Alabama and in 2018.” And then turn around and
start our nominating contest in the two states that have barely any black people in ‘em.
I mean that doesn’t make sense. We can’t as a democratic…
Anthony
[00:18:21]
We asked in our polling a couple of months ago, we asked people to game out
electability. And that's a word you hear thrown around a lot. Right? Which is to say that
it's Democratic voters who for them, they're so eager to try to beat President Trump,
that they're trying to game out the system and go, “Okay. Never mind who I like I as a
voter, but who will other people vote for?” Sure. So we asked in the polling, who do you
think, poll respondent, those swing voters are going to vote for? Would they prefer a
man or a woman? Would they prefer someone who was white or someone who was of
color or a minority? And there--a lot of people said they didn't think it would matter,
right? That was the bulk of the responses. But there were more who thought something
would matter. Who thought that swing voters would prefer a white male.
Tim
[00:19:14]
Interesting.
Anthony
[00:19:16]
And that told me a lot about how voters think about other voters and how Democrats in
particular thought about the electorate beyond themselves. And maybe they're right.
Maybe they're wrong. right? You can't turn people into political consultants--well
political consultants aren't always right. So, voters aren't always right. But that's how
they thought of it. When you were out there on the trail, is that something you saw as
voters talking back to you?

Tim
[00:19:41]
You know, really? No, I like--it's not something--I don't hear--and it's funny because one
of the things that Harris has incorporated into her stump speech and I think sometimes
it's almost using it as an excuse for why she's not doing as well is, you know, she always
says people, you know, in every race I've ever ran, they didn't know if they were ready
for a black or a woman of color. And you find that you don't hear that. I hear more
people who say that they're ready for a female president than not. But again, these are
people that are showing up at these events. And so, I don't know if that will translate to
the people who aren't paying attention as closely. Right? Does that make sense?
Anthony
[00:20:25]
Yeah, it’s a certain sample. But look, the other thing we ought to talk about though, is
that Joe Biden has dominated the African-American vote in the polling from here. And
that could also be part of the answer to your question? I don't know. I mean--
Tim
[00:20:39]
You know, what was interesting is, yes, you're a hundred percent right. And one of the
narratives that's been coming around, especially surrounding Mayor Pete, has been he
does not do a good job connecting with black voters. And I think to your point, well, no
one besides Joe Biden is really doing a good job getting black voters.
Anthony
[00:20:57]
And tell me what that means, connecting?
Tim
[00:20:19]
Connecting, I think it just means, you know, part of it's trust. Part of it's just we know--
we know this person. But as you said, like polling, you know, he's got a big--he's polling
very high, especially in, say, in South Carolina. He's done very well with black voters
there. And nationally, he's doing very well, in particular, older black voters, which are--
tend to be the voters that vote in higher numbers within the black community during
primaries. Or in--probably during elections in general.
Anthony
[00:21:29]
Alright. Tim Perry, CBS News political reporter, Tim.
Tim
[00:21:32]
Dr. Anthony Salvanto, thank you so much for having me.