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Patrick Crain

Annotated Bibliography

Topic: Climate Change and its Effect on Hurricanes

Inquiry: Is global warming to blame for the recent rise in larger, more intense hurricanes?

Thesis: I argue that climate change plays a significant role in the growing number of intense

hurricanes that have recently devastated numerous parts of the U.S.

Emanuel, Kerry, et al. “Hurricanes and Global Warming.” ​Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society​, vol. 89, no. 3, Mar. 2008, pp. 347–367. ​EBSCOhost​,
doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347.

Kerry Emanuel discusses how to analyze the ways in which climate change affects

tropical cyclone activity. He mentions that hurricanes and tropical storms are some of the

most devastating results of climate change. There are models that estimate the future of

climate change, however these models are not advanced enough to analyze the ins and

outs of tropical cyclones. This source discusses “a new technique for inferring tropical

cyclone climatology from the output of global models, and applies it to current and future

climate states simulated by a suite of global models.” This technique allows researchers

to analyze hurricane models at a low cost. This method is efficient at “reproducing the

observed seasonal cycle and interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the present

climate, and that it is more modestly successful in simulating their spatial distribution.”

With climate change comes an increase of carbon dioxide, and this new technique

predicts that there will be significant changes in hurricane activity with additional carbon

dioxide. In addition, this model suggests that the storm intensity will usually increase with

a warmer climate. However, there is bias present in this article that exists in the fact that

the writer trusts the accuracy of this prediction model and uses it to find a conclusion.

This source is suitable for my project because it provides relevant facts regarding the
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future of climate change and its effects on tropical cyclones. Also, the stakeholders in

this article are people who are concerned about this particular issue either because they

are environmentalists ort their life has been devastated by a hurricane.

Gutmann, Ethan D., et al. “Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Yr

Convection-Permitting Pseudo-Global Warming Simulation.”
Journal of Climate​, vol. 31, no. 9, May 2018, pp. 3643–3657. ​EBSCOhost​,
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0391.1.

Ethan Gutmann offers a global warming simulation that predicts how hurricanes will

react to a warmer climate. He believes that there is “good reason to believe” that

hurricanes will change in some manner as the Earth’s climate becomes warmer. He

thinks these changes will be significant ones. In his experiment, Gutmann used a

Weather Research and Forecasting Model to “investigate possible changes in tropical

cyclones.” After changing the temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speeds of the

simulated environment, the models predicted tropical cyclones with faster maximum

winds, slower storm translation speeds, lower central pressures, and higher precipitation

rates.” Although the accuracy of this model remains unknown, I view this a significant

evidence to support my claim that climate change and hurricane intensity is an

interconnected issue that will only be resolved by taking better care of the environment.

This article is slightly bias because the writer is anticipating the future if climate change

based on a forecasting model. This article is speaking to people who research the

effects climate change has on Earth and the people who fear the potential dangers it

may pose.

Holland, Greg, and Cindy Bruyère. “Recent Intense Hurricane Response to Global Climate
Change.” ​Climate Dynamics,​ vol. 42, no. 3/4, Feb. 2014, pp. 617–627. ​EBSCOhost​,
doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0.

Greg Holland uses the Anthropogenic Climate Change Index to discuss the effect that

climate change has on hurricane activity. The Anthropogenic Climate Change Index
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essentially measures climate change. This source claims that the AACI “indicates that

the bulk of the current anthropogenic warming has occurred in the past four decades.”

This finding provides researchers with reason to believe that there is a relationship

between global warming and intensifying hurricanes. This source states that Category 4

and 5 hurricanes have increased at a rate of 30% per every degree celsius. In addition,

as Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have been increasing, Category 1 and 2 hurricanes

have become less common. The source claims that “it is likely that the frequency of

intense hurricanes will increase with future anthropogenic climate change.” Clearly, there

has been a rise in the amount of cat 4 and 5 hurricanes, and this source believes that

the Anthropogenic Climate Change Index provides evidence that climate change has

played a role in the strength of these storms. This source is very informative on the topic

of climate change and its effect on hurricanes. It is credible and relevant because the

writer provides numerous facts that includes a number of tables and graphs. Also, at the

end of this source, there are acknowledgments that says that this work is supported by

The National Center for Atmospheric Research. This source is being written to grab the

attention of Americans who are maybe on the fence about whether or not climate

change is harmful towards are environment.

Kluger, Jeffrey, et al. “GLOBAL WARMING: THE CULPRIT? (Cover Story).” ​TIME Magazine​,
vol. 166, no. 14, Oct. 2005, pp. 42–46. ​EBSCOhost,​
search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=18381093&site=ehost-live

Once again, this article highlights global warming and its responsibility for the rise in

severe hurricanes. Hurricane reacherers view cat 4 and 5 hurricanes as a “first warning

of a climatic crash.” Hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean and oceans are only going to
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get warmer with global warming. This article was published in 2005, right after Hurricane

Katrina, one of the most catastrophic hurricanes in tropical cyclone history. Although this

source was published almost 15 years ago, this source is touching on the same topics

as articles that were published this year. This source has a bit of recency bias because it

comes right after a devastating hurricane. Everyone is still overreacting at this point as

hurricane Katrina was a really eye opening storm that ruined numerous lives. This shows

that climate change and increased hurricane activity have been issues for a while and

still are relevant issues to this day.

Murakami, Hiroyuki, et al. “Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the

North Indian Ocean Projected by High-Resolution MRI-AGCMs.”
Climate Dynamics​, vol. 40, no. 7/8, Apr. 2013, pp. 1949–1968.
EBSCOhost,​ doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1407-z.

This source discusses tropical cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean and the atmospheric

circulation models predictions for the future. Atmospheric circulation models “investigate

potential future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean.” These

models predict that tropical cyclone activity will increase around the Arabian Sea. Also, it

seems that in the future, there may be some variation in the frequency of these storms.

For example, “Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked

seasonal variation in the NIO: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon

season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the

post-monsoon season.” Clearly, these research models estimate that there will be

significant changes in tropical cyclone activity in the future. There are a few potential

culprits for this predicted variability, however the one that stands out to researchers is

global warming.

Pant, Sami, and Eun Jeong Cha. “Potential Changes in Hurricane Risk Profile across
the United States Coastal Regions under Climate Change Scenarios.”
Structural Safety,​ vol. 80, Sept. 2019, pp. 56–65. ​EBSCOhost,​
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doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2019.05.003.

This source includes a study that discusses the effect that climate change has on

hurricanes. This source states that hurricanes are measured in wind speed and regional

loss. Its results conclude that “Increase in hurricane risk under climate change is found

to vary widely spatially.” It is believed that the most risk is located by the Northeastern

part of the U.S. Some researchers believe that future climate scenarios will dictate which

areas of the U.S. are at risk for hurricanes. To get to the bottom of the effect that climate

change has, “climate-dependent hurricane risks across eight different locations of the US

south and east coast are investigated in this study.” The study concludes that “future

hurricane risk is found higher than present for all locations and metrics.” Hurricane

formation depends on the conditions of the climate. Somethings that dictates hurricane

formation is the sea surface temperature, humidity, and air temperature. This source

introduces the idea that “​Due to this dependency between hurricane formation and

climatic conditions, anticipated climate change could potentially affect future hurricane

risk.” This source is very relevant as it was published in 2019. It includes evidence that

backs up its claim and its reasoning is very clear for why it believes that the state of the

environment has so much to do with the formation of hurricanes. This article was written

to grab the attention of people who live in regions that see a high volume of hurricanes.

Seeley, Jacob T., and David M. Romps. “The Effect of Global Warming
on Severe Thunderstorms in the United States.” ​Journal of
Climate,​ vol. 28, no. 6, Mar. 2015, pp. 2443–2458. ​EBSCOhost​,
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00382.1.

This article offers an analysis about the effect of global warming on severe

thunderstorms. I wanted to include a source that talks about thunderstorms rather than

hurricanes because they are arguably more common and relevant than hurricanes. In
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some regions, thunderstorms occur every day during the summer, while hurricanes

might occur one or twice a year. If climate change plays a role in intensifying

thunderstorms then there could be significant consequences in the future. This question

can be answered through climate models. Right now, the effect of global warming on

thunderstorms is relatively unknown. “In spite of the catastrophic damage caused by

severe thunderstorms in the current climate, their response to enhanced greenhouse

forcing remains a poorly understood regional climate change impact.” One way that

researchers are anticipating the effect greenhouse gasses will have on storms is by

“identifying the large-scale ‘‘ingredients’’ of severe convective storms and evaluating how

these ingredients will respond to in- creasing atmospheric greenhouse gas

concentrations.'' I think that this source provides me with quality information that will

allow me to discuss the relevance of climate change and storms.

ZHANG Jiao-yan, et al. “Tropical Cyclone Damages in China under Global Warming.”
Journal of Tropical Meteorology,​ vol. 19, no. 2, June 2013, pp. 120–129.
EBSCOhost,​
search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=87072206&site=ehost-live

This source offers a look into what the climate change/tropical cyclone issue is like in

China. This article is different from my other ones because it is not centered around the

U.S. It provides a different perspective and I believe that is a good thing. The writer

acknowledges the severity of this issue as he writes “TC-related disasters are one of the

worst natural disasters in China, causing great loss of life and property.” This article

informs people that this issue is prevalent all throughout the Earth, not just in North

America. These tropical cyclones are taking a toll on China’s economy. In fact, these

intense storms have led to​ “​505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in direct economic loss, which

accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China.” Also, the article states that there hasn’t

been that much of an increase in tropical cyclones, but there has been an increase in the
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intensity of the tropical cyclones that do end up forming. Besides increased storm

intensity, another culprit for the substantial economic loss is rapid economic

development. Overall, this is a quality source that offers additional information regarding

the catastrophic effect global warming has on tropical cyclones throughout the world.