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CHAPTER

7 Correlation

As the summer heat rises, hill


Studying this chapter should stations, are crowded with more and
enable you to: more visitors. Ice-cream sales become
• understand the meaning of the
term correlation;
more brisk. Thus, the temperature is
• understand the nature of related to number of visitors and sale
relationship between two of ice-creams. Similarly, as the supply
variables; of tomatoes increases in your local
• calculate the differ ent measures
mandi, its price drops. When the local
of correlation;
• analyse the degree and dir ection harvest starts reaching the market,
of the relationships. the price of tomatoes drops from a
princely Rs 40 per kg to Rs 4 per kg or
1. INTRODUCTION even less. Thus supply is related to
price. Correlation analysis is a means
In previous chapters you have learnt
for examining such relationships
how to construct summary measures
out of a mass of data and changes systematically. It deals with questions
among similar variables. Now you will such as:
learn how to examine the relationship • Is there any relationship between
between two variables. two variables?

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integral part of the theory of demand,


which you will study in Class XII. Low
agricultural productivity is related to
low rainfall. Such examples of
relationship may be given a cause and
effect interpretation. Others may be just
coincidence. The relation between the
arrival of migratory birds in a
• If the value of one variable sanctuary and the birth rates in the
changes, does the value of the locality cannot be given any cause and
other also change? effect interpretation. The relationships
are simple coincidence. The
relationship between size of the
shoes and money in your pocket is
another such example. Even if
relationship exist, they are difficult
to explain it.
In another instance a third
variable’s impact on two variables
may give rise to a relation between the
two variables. Brisk sale of ice-creams
• Do both the variables move in the may be related to higher number of
same direction? deaths due to drowning. The victims
are not drowned due to eating of ice-
creams. Rising temperature leads to
brisk sale of ice-creams. Moreover, large
number of people start going to
swimming pools to beat the heat. This
might have raised the number of deaths
by drowning. Thus temperature is
behind the high correlation between
the sale of ice-creams and deaths due
to drowning.
• How strong is the relationship?
What Does Correlation Measure?
2. TYPES OF RELATIONSHIP Correlation studies and measures
Let us look at various types of t h e direction and intensity of
relationship. The relation between relationship among variables.
movements in quantity demanded Correlation measures covariation, not
and the price of a commodity is an causation. Correlation should never be

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interpreted as implying cause and 3. T E C H N I Q U E S FOR MEASURING


effect relation. The presence of C ORRELATION
correlation between two variables X
and Y simply means that when the Three important statistical tools used
value of one variable is found to change to measure correlation are scatter
in one direction, the value of the other diagrams, Karl Pearson’s coefficient of
variable is found to change either in the correlation and Spearman’s rank
same direction (i.e. positive change) or correlation.
A scatter diagram visually
in the opposite direction (i.e. negative
presents the nature of association
change), but in a definite way. For
without giving any specific
simplicity we assume here that the numerical value. A numerical
correlation, if it exists, is linear, i.e. the measure of linear relationship
relative movement of the two variables between two variables is given by
can be represented by drawing a Karl Pearson’s coefficient of
straight line on graph paper. correlation. A relationship is said to
be linear if it can be represented
Types of Correlation by a straight line. Spearman’s
Correlation is commonly classified coefficient of correlation measures
into negative and positive the linear association between ranks
correlation. The correlation is said to assigned to indiviual items according
to their attributes. Attributes are
be positive when the variables move
those variables which cannot be
together in the same direction. When
numerically measured such as
the income rises, consumption also intelligence of people, physical
rises. When income falls, appearance, honesty, etc.
consumption also falls. Sale of ice-
cream and temperature move in the Scatter Diagram
same direction. The correlation is
negative when they move in opposite A scatter diagram is a useful
directions. When the price of apples technique for visually examining the
falls its demand increases. When the form of relationship, without
prices rise its demand decreases. calculating any numerical value. In
When you spend more time in this technique, the values of the two
studying, chances of your failing variables are plotted as points on a
decline. When you spend less hours graph paper. From a scatter diagram,
in your studies, chances of scoring one can get a fairly good idea of the
low marks/grades increase. These nature of relationship. In a scatter
are instances of negative correlation. diagram the degree of closeness of the
The variables move in opposite scatter points and their overall direction
direction. enable us to examine the relation-

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ship. If all the points lie on a line, the A careful observation of the scatter
correlation is perfect and is said to be diagram gives an idea of the nature
unity. If the scatter points are widely and intensity of the relationship.
dispersed around the line, the
correlation is low. The correlation is Karl Pearson’s Coefficient of
said to be linear if the scatter points lie Correlation
near a line or on a line. This is also known as product moment
Scatter diagrams spanning over correlation and simple correlation
Fig. 7.1 to Fig. 7.5 give us an idea of coefficient. It gives a precise numerical
the relationship between two value of the degree of linear
variables. Fig. 7.1 shows a scatter relationship between two variables X
a round an upward rising line and Y. The linear relationship may be
given by
indicating the movement of the
Y = a + bX
variables in the same direction. When
This type of relation may be
X rises Y will also rise. This is positive described by a straight line. The
correlation. In Fig. 7.2 the points are intercept that the line makes on the
found to be scattered around a Y-axis is given by a and the slope of
downward sloping line. This time the the line is given by b. It gives the
variables move in opposite directions. change in the value of Y for very small
When X rises Y falls and vice versa. change in the value of X. On the other
This is negative correlation. In Fig.7.3 hand, if the relation cannot be
there is no upward rising or downward represented by a straight line as in
sloping line around which the points Y = X2
are scattered. This is an example of the value of the coefficient will be zero.
no correlation. In Fig. 7.4 and Fig. 7.5 It clearly shows that zero correlation
the points are no longer scattered need not mean absence of any type
around an upward rising or downward of relation between the two variables.
falling line. The points themselves are Let X1, X2, ..., XN be N values of X
on the lines. This is referred to as and Y1, Y2 ,..., YN be the corresponding
perfect positive correlation and perfect values of Y. In the subsequent
negative correlation respectively. presentations the subscripts
indicating the unit are dropped for the
sake of simplicity. The arithmetic
Activity
means of X and Y are defined as
• Collect data on height, weight
and marks scor ed by students ΣX ΣY
in your class in any two subjects
X= ; Y=
N N
in class X. Draw the scatter
and their variances are as follows
diagram of these variables taking
two at a time. What type of Σ( X − X ) 2 ΣX 2
relationship do you find? σ 2x = = − X2
N N

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Properties of Correlation Coefficient


Σ( Y − Y )2 Σ Y 2
and σ 2
y = = − Y2 Let us now discuss the properties of the
N N
correlation coefficient
The standard deviations of X and • r has no unit. It is a pure number.
Y respectively are the positive square It means units of measurement are
roots of their variances. Covariance of not part of r. r between height in
X and Y is defined as feet and weight in kilograms, for
Σ( X − X )( Y − Y ) Σxy instance, could be say 0.7.
Cov(X,Y) = = • A negative value of r indicates an
N N inverse relation. A change in one
Where x = X − X and y = Y − Y variable is associated with change
in the other variable in the
are the deviations of the i th value of X
opposite direction. When price of
and Y from their mean values
a commodity rises, its demand
respectively.
falls. When the rate of interest
The sign of covariance between X
rises the demand for funds also
and Y determines the sign of the
falls. It is because now funds have
correlation coefficient. The standard
become costlier.
deviations are always positive. If the
covariance is zero, the correlation
coefficient is always zero. The product
moment correlation or the Karl
Pearson’s measure of correlation is
given by

r = Σxy ...(1)
Nσ x σ y
or
Σ( X − X ) ( Y − Y)
r = ...(2)
Σ( X − X ) 2 Σ( Y − Y) 2
or
(ΣX )(Σ Y)
ΣXY − • If r is positive the two variables
r= N move in the same direction. When
(Σ X ) 2 (Σ Y) 2 ...(3) the price of coffee, a substitute of
ΣX 2 − Σ Y2 −
N N tea, rises the demand for tea also
or rises. Improvement in irrigation
facilities is associated with higher
NΣXY – ( ∑ X)( ∑ Y) yield. When temperature rises the
r=
NΣX 2 – ( ΣX ) 2 • NΣY2 – ( ΣY) 2 ...(4) sale of ice-creams becomes brisk.

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• The value of the correlation before correlation is calculated and


coefficient lies between minus one interpreted. An epidemic spreads in
and plus one, –1 ≤ r ≤ 1. If, in any some villages and the government
exercise, the value of r is outside sends a team of doctors to the affected
this range it indicates error in villages. The correlation between the
calculation. number of deaths and the number of
• If r = 0 the two variables are doctors sent to the villages is found to
uncorrelated. There is no linear be positive. Normally the health care
relation between them. However facilities provided by the doctors are
other types of relation may be there. expected to reduce the number of
• If r = 1 or r = –1 the correlation is deaths showing a negative correlation.
perfect. The relation between them This happened due to other reasons.
is exact. The data relate to a specific time period.
• A high value of r indicates strong Many of the reported deaths could be
linear relationship. Its value is said terminal cases where the doctors
to be high when it is close to
could do little. Moreover, the benefit
+1 or –1.
of the presence of doctors becomes
• A low value of r indicates a weak
visible only after some time. It is also
linear relation. Its value is said to
be low when it is close to zero. possible that the reported deaths are
• The magnitude of r is unaffected by not due to the epidemic. A tsunami
the change of origin and change of suddenly hits the state and death toll
scale. Given two variables X and Y rises.
let us define two new variables. Let us illustrate the calculation of
r by examining the relationship
X–A Y–C between years of schooling of farmers
U= ;V =
B D and the annual yield per acre.
where A and C are assumed means of
Example 1
X and Y respectively. B and D are
common factors and of same sign. Then No. of years Annual yield per
of schooling acre in ’000 (Rs)
rxy = ruv
of farmers
This. property is used to calculate 0 4
correlation coefficient in a highly 2 4
simplified manner, as in the step 4 6
deviation method. 6 10
As you have read in chapter 1, the 8 10
10 8
statistical methods are no substitute for 12 7
common sense. Here, is another
example, which highlights the need for Formula 1 needs the value of
understanding the data properly Σxy , σ x , σ y

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From Table 7.1 we get, education, higher will be the yield per
acre. It underlines the importance of
Σ xy = 42, farmers’ education.
To use formula (3)
Σ( X − X )2 112
σx = = ,
N 7 (ΣX )(ΣY )
ΣXY −
r= N
Σ( Y − Y)2 38 (ΣX )2 (ΣY )2 ...(3)
σy = = ΣX2 − ΣY 2 −
N 7 N N
Substituting these values in the value of the following expressions
formula (1) have to be calculated i.e.
42 ΣXY, ΣX 2 , ΣY 2 .
r= = 0 .644
112 38 Now apply formula (3) to get the
7 value of r.
7 7
The same value can be obtained Let us know the interpretation of
from formula (2) also. different values of r. The correlation
coefficient between marks secured in
Σ ( X − X )( Y − Y ) English and Statistics is, say, 0.1. It
r= ...(2)
Σ ( X − X )2 Σ ( Y − Y )2 means that though the marks secured
in the two subjects are positively
42 correlated, the strength of the
r= = 0 .644
112 38 relationship is weak. Students with high
Thus years of education of farmers marks in English may be getting
and annual yield per acre are relatively low marks in statistics. Had
positively correlated. The value of r is the value of r been, say, 0.9, students
also large. It implies that more the with high marks in English will
number of years farmers invest in invariably get high marks in Statistics.

TABLE 7.1
Calculation of r between years of schooling of far mers and annual yield
Years of (X– X ) (X– X ) 2 Annual yield (Y– Y ) (Y– Y ) 2 (X– X )(Y– Y )
Education per acre in ’000 Rs
(X) (Y)
0 –6 36 4 –3 9 18
2 –4 16 4 –3 9 12
4 –2 4 6 –1 1 2
6 0 0 10 3 9 0
8 2 4 10 3 9 6
10 4 16 8 1 1 4
12 6 36 7 0 0 0

Σ X=42 Σ (X– X ) 2=112 Σ Y=49 Σ (Y– Y ) 2=38 Σ (X– X )(Y– Y )=42

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An example of negative correlation TABLE 7.2


is the relation between arrival of Year Annual growth Gross Domestic
vegetables in the local mandi and price of National Saving as
Income percentage of GDP
of vegetables. If r is –0.9, vegetable
supply in the local mandi will be 1992–93 14 24

accompanied by lower price of 1993–94 17 23


1994–95 18 26
vegetables. Had it been –0.1 large
vegetable supply will be accompanied 1995–96 17 27
1996–97 16 25
by lower price, not as low as the price,
1997–98 12 25
when r is –0.9. The extent of price fall
1998–99 16 23
depends on the absolute value of r.
1999–00 11 25
Had it been zero there would have
2000–01 8 24
been no fall in price, even after large
2001–02 10 23
supplies in the market. This is also
a possibility if the increase in supply Source: Economic Survey, (2004–05) Pg. 8,9
is taken care of by a good transport transformation of the variables X and
network transferring it to other Y as follows:
markets. X–A Y–B
U= ;V =
h k
Activity where A and B are assumed means, h
and k are common factors and have
• Look at the following table.
Calculate r between annual
same signs.
growth of national income at
Then rUV = rXY
current price and the Gross This can be illustrated with the
Domestic Saving as percentage exercise of analysing the correlation
of GDP. between price index and money
supply.
Step deviation method to calculate Example 2
correlation coefficient. Price 120 150 190 220 230
index (X)
When the values of the variables
Money 1800 2000 2500 2700 3000
are large, the burden of calculation supply
can be considerably reduced by in Rs crores (Y)
using a property of r. It is that r is The simplification, using step
independent of change in origin and deviation method is illustrated below.
scale. It is also known as step Let A = 100; h = 10; B = 1700 and
deviation method. It involves the k = 100

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The table of transformed variables Activity


is as follows:
• Using data related to India’s
Calculation of r between price index population and national income,
and money supply using step deviation calculate the correlation
method between them using step
deviation method.
TABLE 7.3
U V
Spearman’s rank correlation
 X − 100   Y −1700  Spearman’s rank correlation was
 10   100  U2 V2 UV developed by the British psychologist
2 1 4 1 2
C.E. Spearman. It is used when the
variables cannot be measured
5 3 25 9 15
meaningfully as in the case of price,
9 8 81 64 72 income, weight etc. Ranking may be
12 10 144 100 120 more meaningful when the
13 13 169 169 169 measurements of variables are suspect.
ΣU = 41; ΣU = 35; ΣU2 = 423; Consider the situation where we are
required to calculate the correlation
ΣV 2 = 343; ΣUV = 378
between height and weight of students
Substituting these values in formula (3) in a remote village. Neither measuring

ΣUV −
( ΣU )( ΣU ) rods nor weighing scales are available.
The students can be easily ranked in
r= N terms of height and weight without
(3)
( ΣU ) ( ΣV )
2 2
using measuring rods and weighing
ΣU − 2
ΣV − 2
scales.
N N There are also situations when you
are required to quantify qualities such
41 × 35 as fairness, honesty etc. Ranking may
378 − be a better alternative to quantifica-
= 5
tion of qualities. Moreover, sometimes
( 41) 2 ( 35)2
423 − 343 − the correlation coefficient between two
5 5 variables with extreme values may be
quite different from the coefficient
= 0.98 without the extreme values. Under
these circumstances rank correlation
The strong positive correlation provides a better alternative to simple
between price index and money correlation.
supply is an important premise of Rank correlation coefficient and
monetary policy. When the money simple correlation coefficient have the
supply grows the price index also rises. same interpretation. Its formula has

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CORRELATION 101

been derived from simple correlation not utilised. The first differences of
coefficient where individual values have the values of items in the series,
been replaced by ranks. These ranks arranged in order of magnitude, are
are used for the calculation of almost never constant. Usually the
correlation. This coefficient provides data cluster around the central
a measure of linear association between values with smaller differences in the
ranks assigned to these units, not their middle of the array. If the first
values. It is the Product Moment differences were constant, then r and
Correlation between the ranks. Its r k would give identical results. The
formula is first difference is the difference of
...(4) consecutive values. Rank
correlation is preferred to Pearsonian
where n is the number of observations coefficient when extreme values are
and D the deviation of ranks assigned present. In general
to a variable from those assigned to rk is less than or equal to r.
the other variable. When the ranks are The calculation of rank correlation
repeated the formula is will be illustrated under thre e
situations.
 ( m 31 − m1 ) ( m 32 − m 2 )  1. The ranks are given.
6  ΣD2 + + + ...
2. The ranks are not given. They have
r s = 1–  
12 12
n( n2 −1 ) to be worked out from the data.
3. Ranks are repeated.
where m1, m2, ..., are the number of
m31 m1 Case 1: When the ranks are given
repetitions of ranks and ..., Example 3
12
their corresponding corr ection Five persons are assessed by three
factors. This correction is needed for judges in a beauty contest. We have
every repeated value of both variables. to find out which pair of judges has
If three values are repeated, there will the nearest approach to common
be a correction for each value. Every perception of beauty.
time m1 indicates the number of times Competitors
a value is repeated.
All the properties of the simple Judge 1 2 3 4 5
correlation coefficient are applicable A 1 2 3 4 5
here. Like the Pearsonian Coefficient B 2 4 1 5 3
C 1 3 5 2 4
of correlation it lies between 1 and
–1. However, generally it is not as There are 3 pairs of judges
accurate as the ordinary method. necessitating calculation of rank
This is due the fact that all the correlation thrice. Formula (4) will be
information concerning the data is used.

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6 ΣD 2 Case 2: When the ranks are not given


rs = 1 − ...(4)
n3 − n Example 4
The rank correlation between A and
B is calculated as follows: We are given the percentage of marks,
secured by 5 students in Economics
and Statistics. Then the ranking has
A B D D2
to be worked out and the rank
1 2 –1 1 correlation is to be calculated.
2 4 –2 4
3 1 2 4
4 5 –1 1 Student Marks in Marks in
5 3 2 4 Statistics Economics
(X) (Y)
Total 14
A 85 60
B 60 48
Substituting these values in C 55 49
formula (4) D 65 50
E 75 55
6 ΣD 2
rs = 1 − ...(4)
n3 − n Student Ranking in Ranking in
6 × 14 84 Statistics Economics
=1 − 3 = 1− = 1 − 0 .7 = 0 .3 (R x) (RY )
5 −5 120
A 1 1
The rank correlation between A B 4 5
and C is calculated as follows: C 5 4
D 3 3
E 2 2
A C D D2
1 1 0 0 Once the ranking is complete
2 3 –1 1 formula (4) is used to calculate rank
3 5 –2 4
correlation.
4 2 2 4
5 4 1 1 Case 3: When the ranks are repeated
Total 10
Example 5
Substituting these values in The values of X and Y are given as
formula (4) the rank correlation is 0.5. X 25 45 35 40 15 19 35 42
Similarly, the rank correlation Y 55 60 30 35 40 42 36 48
between the rankings of judges B and In order to work out the rank
C is 0.9. Thus, the perceptions of correlation, the ranks of the values
judges A and C are the closest. Judges are worked out. Common ranks are
B and C have very different tastes. given to the repeated items. The

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CORRELATION 103

common rank is the mean of the ranks The necessary correction thus is
which those items would have assumed m3 − m 2 3 − 2 1
if they were slightly different from each = =
12 12 2
other. The next item will be assigned
Using this equation
the rank next to the rank already
assumed. The formula of Spearman’s  (m 3 − m) 
6 Σ D 2 + 
rs = 1 − 
rank correlation coefficient when the 12 ...(5)
ranks are repeated is as follows n3 − n
Substituting the values of these
rs = 1 −
expressions
 ( m31 − m1) ( m32 − m2 ) 
6 ΣD 2 + + + ... 6(65. 5 + 0. 5) 396
 12 12  rs = 1 − = 1−
n(n − 1)
2 8 −8
3 504
=1 − 0 .786 = 0 .214
where m 1, m 2, ..., are the number
of repetitions of ranks and Thus there is positive rank correlation
between X and Y. Both X and Y move
m31 − m1 in the same direction. However, the
..., their corresponding
12 relationship cannot be described as
correction factors. strong.
X has the value 35 both at the
Activity
4th and 5th rank. Hence both are
• Collect data on marks scored by
given the average rank i.e.,
10 of your classmates in class IX
4+5 th and X examinations. Calculate the
th = 4. 5 rank
2 rank correlation coefficient
between them. If your data do not
have any repetition, repeat the
X Y Rank of Rank of Deviation in D 2 exercise by taking a data set
XR' YR'' Ranking having repeated ranks. What are
D=R'–R''
the circumstances in which rank
25 55 6 2 4 16 correlation coefficient is preferred
45 80 1 1 0 0 to simple correlation coefficient? If
data are precisely measured will
35 30 4.5 8 3.5 12.25
you still prefer rank correlation
40 35 3 7 –4 16 coefficient to simple correlation?
15 40 8 5 3 9 When can you be indifferent to the
19 42 7 4 3 9 choice? Discuss in class.
35 36 4.5 6 –1.5 2.25
4. CONCLUSION
42 48 2 3 –1 1
We have discussed some techniques
Total ΣD = 65 .5
for studying the relationship between

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two variables, particularly the linear be measured precisely, rank


relationship. The scatter diagram gives correlation can be used. These
a visual presentation of the relationship measures however do not imply
and is not confined to linear relations. causation. The knowledge of
Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation correlation gives us an idea of the
and Spearman’s rank correlation direction and intensity of change in a
measure linear relationship among variable when the correlated variable
variables. When the variables cannot changes.

Recap
• Correlation analysis studies the relation between two variables.
• Scatter diagrams give a visual presentation of the nature of
relationship between two variables.
• Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation r measures numerically only
linear relationship between two variables. r lies between –1 and 1.
• When the variables cannot be measured pr ecisely Spearman’s rank
correlation can be used to measure the linear relationship
numerically.
• Repeated ranks need correction factors.
• Correlation does not mean causation. It only means
covariation.

EXERCISES

1. The unit of correlation coef ficient between height in feet and weight in
kgs is
(i) kg/feet
(ii) percentage
(iii) non-existent
2. The range of simple correlation coefficient is
(i) 0 to infinity
(ii) minus one to plus one
(iii) minus infinity to infinity
3. If rxy is positive the relation between X and Y is of the type
(i) When Y incr eases X increases
(ii) When Y decreases X incr eases
(iii) When Y increases X does not change

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CORRELATION 105

4. If rxy = 0 the variable X and Y are


(i) linearly related
(ii) not linearly related
(iii) independent
5. Of the following three measures which can measur e any type of relationship
(i) Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation
(ii) Spearman’s rank correlation
(iii) Scatter diagram
6. If precisely measured data ar e available the simple correlation coefficient
is
(i) more accurate than rank correlation coefficient
(ii) less accurate than rank correlation coefficient
(iii) as accurate as the rank correlation coefficient
7. Why is r pr eferred to covariance as a measure of association?
8. Can r lie outside the –1 and 1 range depending on the type of data?
9. Does correlation imply causation?
10. When is rank correlation more precise than simple correlation coefficient?
11. Does zero correlation mean independence?
12. Can simple correlation coefficient measure any type of relationship?
13. Collect the price of five vegetables from your local market every day for a
week. Calculate their correlation coefficients. Interpret the r esult.
14. Measure the height of your classmates. Ask them the height of their
benchmate. Calculate the correlation coef ficient of these two variables.
Interpret the result.
15. List some variables where accurate measurement is dif ficult.
16. Interpret the values of r as 1, –1 and 0.
17. Why does rank correlation coef ficient differ from Pearsonian correlation
coefficient?
18. Calculate the correlation coef ficient between the heights of fathers in inches
(X) and their sons (Y)
X 65 66 57 67 68 69 70 72
Y 67 56 65 68 72 72 69 71
(Ans. r = 0.603)
19. Calculate the correlation coefficient between X and Y and comment on
their relationship:
X –3 –2 –1 1 2 3
Y 9 4 1 1 4 9
(Ans. r = 0)

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20. Calculate the correlation coefficient between X and Y and comment on


their relationship
X 1 3 4 5 7 8
Y 2 6 8 10 14 16
(Ans. r = 1)

Activity
• Use all the formulae discussed here to calculate r between
India’s national income and exports taking at least ten
observations.

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