Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci.

, 53(2), 295-304, 2017 pISSN 1976-7633 / eISSN 1976-7951

DOI:10.1007/s13143-017-0028-1

Tropical Cyclone Potential Hazard in Southeast China and Its Linkage With the
East Asian Westerly Jet
Jin-hua Yu1, Hua-xing Xue1,2, and Jie Song3
1
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology,
Nanjing, China
2
Meteorological Observatory of Shenzhen Air Traffic Management Station, Shenzhen, China
3
Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USA

(Manuscript received 14 October 2016; accepted 21 February 2017)

© The Korean Meteorological Society and Springer 2017

Abstract: A new synthesized index for estimating the hazard of both
accumulated strong winds and heavy rainfall from a tropical cyclone
(TC) is presented and applied to represent TC potential hazard over
Southeast China. Its relationship with the East Asian westerly jet in
the upper troposphere is also investigated. The results show that the
new TC potential hazard index (PHI) is good at reflecting individual
TC hazard and has significantly higher correlation with economic
losses. Seasonal variation of TC-PHI shows that the largest TC-PHI
on average occurs in July-August, the months when most TCs make
landfall over mainland China. The spatial distribution of PHI at site
shows that high PHI associated with major landfall TCs occurs along
the southeast coast of China. An East Asian westerly jet index
(EAWJI), which represents the meridional migration of the westerly
jet, is defined based on two regions where significant correlations
exist between TC landfall frequency and zonal wind at 200 hPa.
Further analyses show that an anomalous easterly steering flow
occurred above the tracks of TCs, and favored TCs making landfall
along the southeast coast of China, leading to an increase in the
landfall TC when the EAWJ was located north of its average latitude.
Meanwhile, anomalous easterly wind shear and positive anomaly in
low-level relative vorticity along TCs landfall-track favored TC
development. In addition, anomalous water vapor transport from
westerly wind in the South China Sea resulted in more con-
densational heating and an enhanced monsoon trough, leading to the
maintenance of TC intensity for a longer time. All of these
environmental factors increase the TC potential hazard in Southeast
China. Furthermore, the EAWJ may affect tropical circulation by
exciting meridional propagation of transient eddies. During a low
EAWJI phase in July-August, anomalous transient eddy vorticity
flux at 200 hPa propagates southward over the exit region of the
EAWJ, resulting in eddy vorticity flux convergence and the
weakening in the zonal westerly flow to the south of the EAWJ exit
region, producing a favorable upper-level circulation for a TC
making landfall.
Key words: Tropical cyclone potential hazard, Southeast China, East
Asian westerly jet, spatial distribution, climate variability
Corresponding Author: Jinhua Yu, Key Laboratory of Meteorological
Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Labora-
tory of Climate and Environment, Change/Collaborative Innovation
Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,
Nanjing 210044, China.
E-mail: jhyu@nuist.edu.cn
1. Introduction
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the major natural hazards
affecting human livelihoods in coastal zones worldwide. Every
year, East China is hit by tropical cyclones originating from
the western North Pacific, with the potential for catastrophic
losses of life and property (Xu et al., 2006). The fatality and
economic loss along the coast zones in the world have been
increasing over time due to augmented population size,
economic development and global climate change (Emanuel,
2005; Pielke et al., 2008; Webersik et al., 2010; Peduzzi et al.,
2012). The hazard of a catastrophe from landfall TCs varies by
location. For society to better cope with and mitigate TC
disasters, a comprehensive location-based estimate of the hazard
including both strong winds and heavy rainfall is needed.
Previous assessments of TC hazard in a season have mostly
taken only wind (or TC intensity) into account (Gray et al.,
1992; Bell et al., 2000; Emanuel et al., 2006; Cook and
Nicholls, 2009; Malmsladt et al., 2010; Xiao et al., 2011),
including the TC intensity over a TC’s whole life cycle and the
frequency of TC occurrence. The hazard description that is
mostly affected by TC intensity, frequency and duration is
called Index of Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) or
Typhoon Destruction Potential (TDP) or Accumulated Cyclone
Energy (ACE, Bell et al., 2000). These indices, however, lack
consideration for the impact by heavy precipitation. Weak TCs
could result in a large disaster because of heavy precipitation.
For example, Billis of 2006 is one of single most costly natural
disaster in China history, incurring more than ￥34.88 billion
in economic losses and causing 843 fatality. Heavy rainfall
associated with Bilis is the major cause, which has triggered
landslide and debris flow, especially in the border region
between Guangdong, Guangxi and Hunan provinces of China
after it has made landfall (Yu et al., 2010). TC- induced
rainfall, contributing about 50% of heavy precipitation, often
triggered waterlogging in the coastal cities of China (Xue and
Yu, 2016). A more recent example is TC Soudelor (2015),
which made landfall at Putian city of Fujian province with
intensity of 38 m s−1, during its passage, both Wenzhou city of
296 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Zhejiang Province and Fuzhou city of Fujian province were
drowned by its extremely heavy rainfall, resulting in more than
￥4.3 billion and ￥4 billion in losses, respectively. Using
previous hazard indices and measurements, studies on the
aforementioned TCs are inadequate to comprehensively repre-
sent the regional impact of a TC. In this study, we propose a
new potential hazard index (PHI) that can be used to better
depict TC hazard as it includes TC-induced extreme rainfall, as
well as heavy wind speed, duration, areas, and frequency.
The variation in TC potential hazard is associated with
changes in environmental factors. Basic steering flows affect
TC tracks and determine whether TCs make landfall, thus
influencing TC landfall frequency. Tropospheric vertical wind
shear, low-level relative vorticity and moisture transport may
affect the development, maintenance and rainfall of a TC
during and after its landfall (Li et al., 2004; Niu et al., 2005).
All these factors can influence TC activity, leading to the
variation of TC hazard with location and over time.
The East Asian westerly jet stream (EAWJ), associated with
the subtropical upper-level front or/and the polar front, is
defined as a narrow westerly belt with strong horizontal wind
in the upper troposphere over East Asia, and plays an impor-
tant role in East Asian climate change. The EAWJ represents
an interaction between the tropical and mid-latitude synoptic
systems and its meridional location change can be used to
represent the meridional migration of atmospheric circulation.
The latitude where the jet axis exists is often used to depict the
EAWJ meridional location (Kuang and Zhang, 2005; Zhang
and Huang, 2011), which shifts northward from winter to
summer and jumps twice during this seasonal variations (Liang
et al., 1998). However, a jet axis is difficult to be defined
owing partially to the coarse resolution of atmospheric data. In
addition, previous studies have shown significant interannual
variations in the meridional migration of the EAWJ with
double variance in its variation intensity (Kuang and Zhang,
2005; Lin, 2010).
Recent studies have suggested that the poleward migration
of the location of TC maximum intensity is linked to distinct
expansion of the tropics, which results in changes in the mean
meridional structure of environmental vertical shear and
potential intensity (Kossin et al., 2014). However, most studies
have mainly focused on the impact of the EAWJ on the
synoptic system and climatic anomalies; few studies have
linked variation in the EAWJ meridional location with the
migration of large-scale atmospheric circulation, which can
influence TC activity, TC landfall and TC hazard. In this
paper, we propose an EAWJ meridional migration index, to
investigate how the EAWJ meridional migration affects TC
hazard in East China. The paper begins with a description of
the data and proposed PHI, which is used in this paper, in
Section 2. A comparison between the new PHI and ACE is
made in Section 3. The TC hazard characteristics in East China
are presented in Section 4. In Section 5, the relationship
between TC hazard and the EAWJ is discussed, and with the
definition of an index representing the meridional shift of the
EAWJ, effect of the EAWJ on TC hazard in East China is
investigated. Section 6 summarizes the results and discusses
the important conclusions of this study.
2. Data and methodology
a. Data
The six-hourly TC best-track data archived at the Chinese
Meteorological Administration and the Shanghai Typhoon
Institute (CMA-STI) are downloaded from http://www.typhoon.
gov.cn, including TC positions (latitude and longitude) and
maximum sustained wind speed characteristics. A TC, ori-
ginally forming over the western North Pacific (WNP), is
counted and its potential hazard is calculated when it has made
landfall over mainland China along with its maximum sus-
tained speed once exceeding 17.2 m s−1 in the whole life. Daily
precipitation and surface wind (10- minute mean at 10-m
height) data at 523 meteorological observational stations over
the southeast China are obtained from National Climate Center
of CMA. Owing to missing data in the early 1950s in most
parts of China, the analysis period is chosen as 1954-2014.
All of the monthly atmospheric data used in this study are
from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with
a horizontal resolution of 2.5o (longitude) × 2.5o (latitude) at 17
pressure levels, except for the humidity data, which are
available at 8 pressure levels (Kalnay et al., 1996). Zonal wind
shear in the vertical direction is defined as the difference
between the zonal wind speed at 200 hPa and 850 hPa.
Population data in 2010 are obtained from the Chinese
Census of Population. The disaster data associated with Saomai
(2006), Bilis (2006) and other TCs are from the Yearbook of
Meteorological Disaster in China, which is compiled by CMA.
b. Methodology
In this study, daily precipitation as well as daily averaged
wind speed that are associated with individual landfall TCs are
considered when constructing a new comprehensive potential
hazard index (PHI) at each station for each TC. Using a
method similar to Jiang and Zipser (2010) and Li and Zhou
(2015), stations located in an effective radius of 800 km from
the TC center are defined as being affected by TCs, and their
corresponding precipitation and wind speed are identified as
TC precipitation and winds. Because the data interval at the
TC center is six-hourly, we averaged these data four times
during a day and obtained a position for the daily TC center.
At each station in the effective radius of a TC, an at-site daily
PHI is defined as
PHI = TCP × TCW (1)
where TCP is an accumulated probability of the daily TC
precipitation when it is above a chosen threshold, which is
31 May 2017 Jin-hua Yu et al. 297

Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of TC-PHI (solid line, 10− ), precipitation (shaded, mm) and ACE (dashed line, m s− ) for landfall TC
2 2 2

(a) Saomai (2006), (b) Bilis (2006).

Table 1. The relationship between direct economic LOSS (billion yuan), ACE (km (m s− ) ) and TC-PHI (10 km ) for 42 TCs during 2005-2012.
2 1 2 2 2

NAME (year) LOSS ACE TC-PHI NAME (year) LOSS ACE TC-PHI
Haitang (2005) 10.78 2635 106.83 Hagupit (2008) 13.278 3694 126.93
Washi (2005) 0.01 549 3.78 Soudelor (2009) 0.046 718 3.53
Matsa (2005) 18.04 5141 159.23 Molave (2009) 0.578 1982 28.36
Sanvu (2005) 3.01 2087 71.45 Goni (2009) 1.428 3951 61.43
Talim (2005) 15.36 2679 165.53 Morakot (2009) 12.823 4127 179.76
Khanun (2005) 14.11 3238 112.98 Koppu (2009) 2.42 2303 51.17
Longwang (2005) 7.81 898 58.67 Parma (2009) 0.237 1022 28.34
Bilis (2006) 34.882 2062 105.26 Conson (2010) 0.28 1250 12.2
Kaemi (2006) 5.752 929 36.66 Chanthu (2010) 6.23 3459 31.54
Prapiroon (2006) 7.835 3254 125.7 Lionrock (2010) 0.64 1965 16.58
Saomai (2006) 19.658 3047 29.45 Meranti (2010) 0.65 1697 5.56
Toraji (2007) 0.085 1222 7.44 Fanapi (2010) 6.09 2438 41.89
Pabuk (2007) 2.289 1138 60.52 Megi (2010) 2.64 1987 15.27
Sepat (2007) 8.647 1860 57.64 Sarika (2011) 0.13 324 1.92
Wipha (2007) 8.339 2153 108.99 Haima (2011) 0.03 1848 8.87
Francisco (2007) 0.174 225 9.52 Muifa (2011) 6.25 794 20.44
Krosa (2007) 9.683 1713 112.47 Nanmadol (2011) 0.93 169 19.01
Kalmaegi (2008) 0.799 2342 21.42 Nesat (2011) 13.88 2681 79.37
Fung-wong (2008) 7.795 4616 113.85 Vicente (2012) 2.07 2466 83.69
Kammuri (2008) 1.983 2346 92.72 Haikui (2012) 37.59 5298 225.77
Nuri (2008) 4.29 1497 17.39 Kai-tak (2012) 5.03 3375 96.16

defined here as 90% percentile for all daily precipitation
samples (daily precipitation > 1 mm) at-site. Actual TCP is an
exceeding probability, which is computed using the bootstrap
method (Efron, 1979). We will give TCP a minimum value
(about 0.1%) when daily TC precipitation is below that
threshold to avoid the occurrence of zero (its damage by
precipitation is ignorable) while wind is strong and may
produce disaster. The daily precipitation threshold is above
25 mm along Chinese southeast coast and decreases north-
westward and northward (not shown), being similar to that of a
yearly precipitation. The definition for TCW is similar to that
for TCP except for the daily TC precipitation being replaced
by the daily averaged TC wind. The daily TC-PHI at site is a
basis for other TC-PHI, such as its spatial and temporal
distribution.
For spatial distribution of a landfall TC-PHI, first a total PHI
at-site was calculated by adding daily PHI after confirming
that TC’s influence covers the site during a TC making landfall
in mainland. Individual TC’s spatial PHI distributions are
illustrated for a typical small TC-PHI (Saomai in 2006) and a
298 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

large TC-PHI (Bilis in 2006) (Fig. 1). The spatial distribution

of TC potential hazard climatology was produced by adding
daily PHI in July and August at sites and then being averaged
during 1954-2014.
For a landfall TC, the total at-site PHI was calculated by
adding the daily PHI after confirming that the TC’s influence
covers the site, all at-sites PHI values were interpolated into
grids by 0.5o × 0.5o to produce gridded PHIs. A total PHI value
(Unit in km2) during a TC landfall was obtained by adding the
product of each gridded PHI times the grid area. The total PHI
values computed for each landfall TC during 1954-2014 are
shown in Table 1. Combing all the PHI of landfall TCs during
July and August in each year, a temporal series of landfall
TCs’ PHI in the period 1954-2014 was constructed.
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is another way to
express the potential damage caused by a landfall TC’s. Similar
to the PHI calculation, a total at-site ACE was obtained first by
adding daily energy (wind speed squared) after confirming that
the TC’s influence covers the site, then all at-sites ACE values
were interpolated into grids (0.5o × 0.5o) to produce gridded
ACE. A total ACE value (Unit in m2 s−2 km2) during a landfall
TC was obtained by adding the products of each gridded ACE
times the grid area.

3. Comparison between the new PHI and ACE

The new PHI defined above has two characteristics: it takes

into account both the extreme precipitation and the strong
wind associated with the landfall TCs. Further, it is depicted by
the exceeding probability rather than physical variables them-
selves to decrease the nonlinear relationship between TC
physical variables and associated damage, and to improve their
Fig. 2. Seasonal variation of total TC (a) precipitation (black bar,
left Y-axis) and accumulated energy (gray bar, right Y-axis); (b)
landfall TC Number (TCN, black bar, left Y-axis) and TC-PHI (gray
3 2

linear linkage. To evaluate the representation of a TC’s
potential hazard using PHI, two typical TCs, Saomai (2006),
and Bilis (2006), are used as illustration. Saomai (2006) was
the strongest landfall TC since the 1950s with an intensity of
60 m s−1 when it made landfall at Mazhan in Chuangnan
County in the south of Zhejiang province. Strong wind resulted
in the highest TC-PHI being located near the landfall position
(Fig. 1a). Saomai directly led to an economic loss of ￥19.66
billion and 483 fatality in China. The total TC-PHI of Saomai
was about 29,450 km2.
In comparison, Bilis (2006) made landfall at Beibi in Xiapu
County of Fujian province with an intensity of about 35 m s−1,
which was obviously weaker than Saomai. The high TC-PHI
on the border between Guangdong, Fujian and Hunan pro-
vinces actually resulted from heavy precipitation, which
resulted in a mountain landslide and mud-rock flow, while the
high TC-PHI along the eastern coast corresponded to a disaster
resulting from both heavy precipitation and strong wind after
Bilis making landfall over China (Fig. 1b). Bilis led to an
economic loss of ￥34.88 billion and 843 fatality in China,
which were both larger than those of Saomai. The total TC-
PHI of Bilis was about 105,200 km2, which is also larger than
that of Saomai, thus making Bilis being a larger disaster than
bar, right Y-axis, Unit: 10 ·km ).
Saomai. In comparison, Bilis would be categorized as a
weaker disaster than Saomai if only wind speed were con-
sidered by using ACE as in the previous studies (Table 1). The
relationship between the TC-PHI and the total disaster
associated with the TC indicates that the new PHI defined
here, which includes both precipitation and wind, is able to
reasonably represent the potential hazard of TCs.
For further verifying the TC-PHI validity, values of TC-PHI
and ACE are compared with the direct economic losses for 42
landfall TCs during 2005-2012 (Table 1). It is found that most
of the high values of TC-PHI and ACE correspond to the large
economic losses. The correlation coefficient between the direct
economic losses and TC-PHI and ACE are 0.723 and 0.53 at
0.001 and 0.01 significance levels, respectively. Although there
is no significant difference at 0.05 significance level between
both of the correlated coefficients, the new TC-PHI in this
study presents more advantage to represent a TC potential
hazard over mainland China than ACE suggested by the
previous studies because it overcomes ACE’s shortcoming
which did not consider the influence of TC heavy rainfall.
31 May 2017 Jin-hua Yu et al. 299

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of averaged TC-PHI (contour, Unit: 10− ) for TCs that occurred in July and August during 1954-2014
2

and population density (Unit: count km− ) in 2010 (shaded), the number near each black dot is the value of PHI at the station (a)
2

and terrain elevation and location of provinces in Southeast China (b).

4. TC Hazard characteristics over mainland China

Monthly values of TC-PHI for the period 1954-2014 are

calculated to analyze seasonal and interannual variations of
PHI. During these years, about 6.6 TCs originally formed over
the WNP and subsequently made landfall in the mainland
China each year, of which, 5.7 TCs occurred during July-
October, peak season for TC, and TC count in August is the
highest, contributing about 36.5% of the TCs during the peak
season. The annual cycle of both TC precipitation and
accumulated energy over mainland China (Fig. 2a) show
similar characteristics to that of TC landfall frequency and PHI
(Fig. 2b), meaning that July-August is the TC’s most active
period among the 12 months, and there are no TCs making
landfall over mainland China during the period from January Fig. 4. Standardized time series of landfall TC-PHI in July and
to March. Therefore, TC hazard in July-August is the focus of August during 1954-2014, the blue and red bars indicate negative
this study. and positive anomalous EAWJI years, respectively. Grey lines
Spatial distribution of the averaged TC-PHI during the represent one standard deviation.
period 1954-2014 and the population density in 2010 are
shown in Fig. 3a. High PHI occurs along the southeast coast of contributes 60% and 24.7% of total variance, respectively.
China, where the largest population density is also located. Unlike the studies by Xue and Yu (2016), who detected no
This spatial pattern of mean PHI is found to be associated with significant linear trend in TC landfall frequency over land
terrain over the southeast China (Fig. 3b), which goes from since the 1950s, this study shows that TC-PHI over land
southwest to northeast direction. Strong wind speed and heavy presents a significant increasing trend at 95% confidence level
precipitation resulting from the interaction between the TCs since the 1970s (Fig. 4). Similar significant increasing trends
and terrain led to a high PHI over the wind swept mountains. are also found in TC Precipitation, TC intensity and TC
The impacts of the terrain on PHI are shown to be robust duration time in mainland since the 1970s. These trends are
during TCs making landfall over China. consistent with studies by Emanuel (2005), who argued that
The total TC-PHI includes TC precipitation and kinetic enhanced TC activity during 1970s-1990s over the western
energy during TCs landfall over mainland China in July- North Pacific is associated with global warming. Chen et al.
August each year. Both are associated with TC landfall fre- (2011) suggested that survival time for TC over land of China
quency, duration time in land and TC intensity. A standardized increased from 1975-2009 and it was affected by changes in
temporal series of PHI in July-August (Fig. 4) exhibits a the large-scale steering flow and decreasing vertical wind shear.
marked interannual and interdecadal variation. Their variability
300 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
−1
Fig. 5. Zonal wind (m s ) at 200 hPa (contour) and correlation
coefficient (shaded, significance at the 95% confidence level, red
for positive and blue for negative) between TC landfall frequency
and zonal wind at 200 hPa in July and August. The south (north)
o o o o
square labeled with A (B) indicates a region 110 -140 E, 30 -35 N
o o o o
(110 -140 E, 45 -50 N).
5. Relationship between TC-PHI and EAWJ in July-
August
The track of TC movement depends closely on the tropo-
spheric steering wind. In order to study TC hazard potential,
upper-level circulation that influences the landfall frequency of
TC has to be examined first. This study focuses on illustrating
EAWJ characteristics in July-August when TC occurrence is
the most frequent. Correlation coefficients between TC land-
fall frequency and zonal wind at 200 hPa shown in Fig. 5 are
found to be significantly negative and positive over regions
south and north of 40oN, respectively, over East Asia continent
and northwest Pacific Ocean. It means that frequent TC
landfall is associated with weaker westerly or easterly wind
south of 40oN but stronger westerlies north of 40oN. To
facilitate the description of the EAWJ meridional migration, an
East Asian westerly jet index (EAWJI) is defined as
EAWJI = u(110o-140oE, 30o-35oN) − u(110o-140oE, 45o-50oN)
(2)
Where u represents the average zonal wind at 200 hPa in July-
August over the southern and the northern regions, respect-
ively, which are shown as the boxed areas in Fig. 5. The
EAWJI variation represents the meridional shift of the EAWJ,
because a positive EAWJI anomaly means that the EAWJ
shifts southward, while a negative one means that the EAWJ is
moving northward (not shown). It is found that correlation
coefficient between the EAWJI and TC-PHI is −0.2 with no
significance although large positive PHI anomalies mostly
Fig. 6. Departure field of PHI of TCs during low EAWJI years
(1961, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1978, 1994, 2010) from
that during high EAWJI years (1954, 1968, 1980, 1982, 1986,
1993, 1998) in July and August.
occur during years when the EAWJI are at low phase in July-
August (Fig. 4).
Why does the PHI of landfall TCs increases when the EAWJ
shift northward? Composite analyses are conducted to under-
stand this issue. In the composite analysis, the high (low) cases
are defined as when the EAWJI exceeds one (is less than
negative one) standard deviation. Eight high EAWJI years are
identified: 1977, 1980, 1986, 1987, 1993, 1998, 2001 and 2014.
Eleven low EAWJI years are identified: 1954, 1955, 1961,
1966, 1967, 1973, 1975, 1978, 1994, 2006 and 2010. The
averaged values of landfall TC-PHI during July-August in the
low and high EAWJI years are 108,890 and 36,390 km2,
respectively. The average difference between the low and high
EAWJI years is 72,500 km2, which is significant at a 95%
confidence level, implying that the northward shift of the
EAWJ favors a large PHI in mainland China.
The departure of the TC-PHI during low EAWJI years from
that during high EAWJI years (Fig. 6), shows large positive
PHI anomalies at each station, some exceeding 0.6. The
positive PHI anomalies mostly cover the east coast and terrains.
Furthermore, a significant difference existed between the low
and the high EAWJI years for the TC landfall frequency (2.5
vs. 0.1) and for the TC continued existence period after the
landfall (23.64 hr vs. 14.25 hr).
The TC track frequency in July-August during the low
EAWJI (Fig. 7a), high EAWJI (Fig. 7b) years and their differ-
ence (Fig. 7c) show that more TC tracks occurred along the
southeast coast of China during the low EAWJI years when the
EAWJ shifts northward (Fig. 7a). During the high EAWJI
years when the EAWJ shifts southward, fewer TC tracks
appeared to the north of 30ºN (Fig. 7b), and the TC tracks
were fewer than that during the low EWAJI years to the south
of 30ºN (Fig. 7c).
31 May 2017 Jin-hua Yu et al. 301

Fig. 7. Track frequency of TCs during (a) low and (b) high EAWJI years, and (c): (a) minus (b) in July and August.

Fig. 8. Composited mid-tropospheric (850-300 hPa) mean large-scale flow during (a) low EAWJI and (b) high EAWJI, (c) their
difference: (a) minus (b). Shading represents the significance at the 95% confidence level (Unit: m s− ).
1

Fig. 9. Departure of (a) zonal vertical wind shear between 200 hPa and 850 hPa (m s− ), (b) 850-hPa relative vorticity (10− s− ) and (c)
1 5 1

moisture flux (g·(cm·hPa·s)− ) at 850 hPa during low EAWJI years from that during high EAWJI years in July and August (c in
1

August). Shading represents the significance at the 95% confidence level.

The movement of TC is primarily determined by large-scale
steering flow (Carr III and Elsberry, 1990). Whether a TC
forming originally in the western North Pacific makes landfall
over mainland China, it is determined by the large-scale
tropospheric steering flow near the east coast and to the east of
China. It is found that an easterly wind prevails in the region
south of 30oN in the western North Pacific during the low
EAWJI years (Fig. 8a), which favors TCs making landfall
along the east coast of China. In contrast, during the high
EAWJI years, the easterly wind is shifted southward, and a
westerly wind prevails to the north of Taiwan Island (Fig. 8b),
which does not favor TCs making landfall along the east coast
of China. An anomalous easterly wind to the north of Taiwan
Island, shown in Fig. 8c, further reflects the close relationship
between the EAWJ and the TC landfall. The northward shift of
the EAWJ represents the northward migration of tropical
atmospheric circulation, and the subtropical westerly wind is
replaced by an easterly wind, leading to more TCs moving
302 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Fig. 10. Composited E vectors anomalies during low (a) and high (b) EAWJI in July and August. Contours are their averaged zonal
winds (m s− ) at 200 hPa, respectively.
1
westward during the low EAWJI years. Thus, the EAWJI
defined in this paper represents a meridional shifting of atmos-
pheric circulation.
Whether a westward-moving TC makes landfall over the
east coast of China, it is dependent on its environment. A TC
makes landfall and survives long time over land when the
environmental factors, such as vertical wind shear between
200 hPa and 850 hPa, relative vorticity in the lower tropo-
sphere favor the TC development and its long maintenance
period. Figure 9a shows that anomalous easterly vertical wind
shear occurred in a latitudinal belt between Hainan Island and
40oN, a major region for activities of the landfall TCs during
the low EAWJI years. The result confirms that easterly vertical
wind shear favors the TC development over oceans and the TC
maintenance over land (DeMaria, 1996; Frank and Ritchie,
2001).
Relative vorticity in the lower troposphere is an essential
dynamic factor for TC development. Figure 9b shows that a
positive relative vorticity anomaly at 850 hPa occurred in the
region 15o-25oN, 115o-140oE with significance at the 95% con-
fidence level during the low EAWJI years. A positive relative
vorticity anomaly over the southeast coastal region of China
favors the TC development and the maintenance of TC
intensity before and after it making landfall, leading to more
landfall TCs and resulting in a larger potential hazard of TCs
over China during the low EAWJI years.
Further, latent heating is an important energy source for TC
development and maintaining TC intensity. An anomalous
westerly moisture transport prevailed in the South China Sea
during the low EAWJI years (Fig. 9c). This favors monsoon
trough strengthening and boundary layer moisture convergence
along with positive cyclonic vorticity anomaly (Fig. 9b),
leading to more precipitation and latent heating (Wu et al.,
2009). This results in TCs intensification or their intensity
maintenance, and making landfall over mainland China.
Why does the zonal westerly flow at 200 hPa weaken when
the EAWJ moves northward and vice versa? E vector (Hoskins,
1983) anomalies (Fig. 10) show that the anomalous transient
eddy vorticity flux transported southward over the exit region
of the Eastern Asian westerly jet during July-August in the low
EAWJI years (Fig. 10a). It led to a convergence of wave
vorticity flux, resulting in the weakening of westerly flow at
200 hPa, and the westerly wind shear between 200 hPa and
850 hPa to the south of EAWJI exit as shown in Fig. 9a. The
Fig. 10b depicts a different status with anomalous transient
eddy vorticity flux transported northward over the exit region
of the Eastern Asian westerly jet during July-August in the
high EAWJI years. This resulted in wave vorticity flux
divergence, anomalous westerly flow at 200 hPa and then
anomalous wind shear to the south of EAWJ exit region. These
do not favor a TC making landfall along the southeast coast of
China.
6. Conclusion and discussion
In this study, a new comprehensive index to represent TC
potential hazard characteristics is presented for each station
and for a TC landfall process. Relationship between TC
potential hazard and the upper-level tropospheric East Asian
westerly jet is examined and an East Asian westerly jet
index (EAWJI) is defined to depict a meridional shift of the
westerly jet.
The new TC potential index takes into account both TC
precipitation and accumulated energy (surface wind squared at
stations within TC’s impact) together with its duration. By
comparing the PHI to the disasters related to single TC Saomai
(2006), Bilis (2006) and statistical correlation with economic
losses, it is found that this new index is able to reflect the
31 May 2017 Jin-hua Yu et al.
potential hazard associated with a TC and is better than
previous indices that generally include only TC intensity (or
surface wind). Seasonal variation of the PHI shows that the
largest PHI for TC landfall along the southeast coast of China
occurred in July-August. High values of PHI, on average,
occurred along the southeast coast of China in Guangdong,
Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. It is interesting to find that
these high PHI regions are also regions with high population
density. This suggests that improving forecast skill for TC
activity and TC early warning systems is very important for
decreasing the economic losses and human casualties as-
sociated with TCs.
The potential hazard of a TC increases when the upper-level
tropospheric westerly jet shifts northward and vice versa.
Moreover, the spatial distribution of anomalous TC-PHI shows
that large anomalies were located along the southeast coast of
China, especially in the south of Guangdong and Fujian pro-
vince and near a few mountainous regions during low EAWJI
years.
During EAWJI low years, the EAWJ shifts northward,
anomalous track frequency of landfall TCs showed similar
features as that of the TC-PHI shown in Fig. 6, meaning that
positive anomalous track frequency occurs in the south of
Guangdong and Fujian provinces and to the north of 30oN
which mechanism needs to be studied further. The northward
shifting of EAWJ led to an anomalous easterly steering flow,
which made TCs forming originally in the western North
Pacific moved westward and was able to make landfall along
the southeast coast of China, increasing landfall TC frequency.
Simultaneously, an anomalous zonal easterly vertical wind
shear and positive lower tropospheric relative vorticity occurred
over the regions where TCs passed through when making
landfall over China. These conditions favored TC development
and the maintenance of TC intensity. Moreover, anomalous
westerly moisture transport occurred in the South China Sea
and anomalous southerly moisture transport appeared near
Taiwan Island during the low EAWJI years. It strengthened the
monsoon trough and latent heating, favoring TC development
and intensity maintenance, and increasing the potential hazard
of TCs along the southeastern coast of China. Furthermore, the
EAWJ may affect upper-level zonal flows to the south of its
exit region through transient eddy vorticity flux meridonal
propagation. During a low EAWJI phase, an anomalous
transient eddy vorticity flux transported southward over the
EAWJ exit region, resulting in an anomalous wave vorticity
flux convergence and an anomalous easterly flow to the south
of the EAWJ exit region, which is the critical path way for a
TC making landfall along the southeast coast of China.
In this study, a proposed new potential hazard index that
includes heavy precipitation and strong wind is found to be
better than previous indices in representing disasters caused by
TCs, although more disaster data is needed to assess its ability.
A statistically significant relationship between the EAWJ and
the TC landfall frequency over China is identified for the first
time. A physical interpretation is presented through analyzing
303
variations in environmental factors related to the TC develop-
ment, along with the EAWJ meridional shift. A mechanism is
suggested that the EAWJ affects upper level steering flow and
vertical wind shear in the critical path way for a TC making
landfall. How the EAWJ or anomalous upper level flow affects
the low level flow will be further studied in the near future.
Acknowledgements. This work was supported by Nation Basic
Research Program of China (973 Program) (2015CB453200),
National Science Foundation of China (41575083, 41575108)
and Jiangsu Natural Science Foundation Key Project (BK-
20150062).
Edited by: Kyung-Ja Ha
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