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Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 65 (2019) 108–112

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Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine


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Research Paper

A cut-off value of third molar maturity index for indicating a minimum age T
of criminal responsibility: Older or younger than 16 years?
Sudheer B. Ballaa,∗, Subramanyeswara S. Chinnib, Ivan Galicc, Aditya Mohan Alwalad,
Pramod Machanie, Roberto Camerieref
a
Department of Forensic Odontology, Panineeya Mahavidyalaya Institute of Dental Sciences, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
b
Consultant Forensic Odontologist, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
c
Departments of Research in Biomedicine and Health, University of Split School of Medicine, Spinciceva 2, 21000, Split, Croatia
d
Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, MNR Dental College, Sangareddy, Telangana, India
e
Nightingales Regional Lead, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
f
Age Estimation Project, Institute of Legal Medicine, University of Macerata, Macerata, Italy

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Providing appropriate legal mechanisms, that evaluate the progression of development from the age of child-
Dental age estimation hood innocence to maturity and full responsibility, considered one of the difficult areas of criminal justice policy.
Minimum age of criminal responsibility The minimum age of criminal responsibility (MACR) in children varies among countries and differs widely
Third molar maturity index owing to history and culture. Due to rising and brutality of criminal offenses, particularly by juveniles, few
Orthopantomograms
countries have lowered the minimum age of criminal responsibility, and many have considered/considering to
16 years
do the same. India is one such country in which is under the proposal of lowering the age of criminal respon-
sibility to 16 years. As there is lack of useful age assessment methods, that can indicate whether if the individual
in question is younger (< 16 years) or older than MACR (≥16 years), the present study was undertaken to
derive a specific cut-off value of the third molar maturity index (I3M) for this purpose. The sample consisted of
1078 orthopantomograms (OPTs) from Andhra Pradesh, India, aged between 11 and 20 years (45.4% males and
54.6% females). The reproducibility of I3M was calculated by intra-class correlation coefficients, which showed
an intra-rater and inter-rater agreement of 0.912 and 0.891, respectively. The sample was divided into training
dataset (819 OPTs), to test I3M and gender as independent variables and MACR as a dependent variable by
logistic regression analysis, and test dataset (259 OPTs). A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was per-
formed to evaluate the specific cut-off value of I3M for predicting MACR status. A logistic regression analysis
showed that gender was not statistically significant for predicting MACR status while ROC analysis indicated a
cut-off value of I3M = 0.293 as best for predicting MACR status. The performance of derived cut-off value was
tested in a test data set. The sensitivity of the test was 90.6% and 90%, while specificity was 86% and 87.1% in
males and females, respectively. The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 88.0% and 88.7% in
males and females, respectively. The estimated Bayes post-test probability in males was 87.2% and while in
females it was 88.3%. The results highlight the contribution of the derived cut-off value of I3M for discriminating
individuals around MACR and should be evaluated in other populations.

1. Introduction of criminal justice policy as it is vital to apply appropriate legal me-


chanisms that reflect the transition from the age of childhood innocence
Assessing dental age is not just limited to the prediction of growth in through to maturity and full responsibility under the criminal law.2 In
children for diagnosis and treatment planning, but can also be used to recent times, Juvenile delinquency has attracted much legislative de-
resolve issues related to prosecution in the criminal and civil courts.1 At bate and judicial intervention.3 It refers to the antisocial or the criminal
times, forensic experts needed to answer question regards juvenile's activity of the child which violates the law and often considered to be a
attainment of the minimum age of criminal responsibility (MACR) and gateway to adult crime since a large percentage of criminal careers has
age of majority. The former is considered one of the most sensitive areas their roots in childhood. The legal difference between a criminal and a


Corresponding author.
E-mail address: forensics.Sudheer@gmail.com (S.B. Balla).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jflm.2019.05.014
Received 23 March 2018; Accepted 19 May 2019
Available online 22 May 2019
1752-928X/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.
S.B. Balla, et al. Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 65 (2019) 108–112

delinquent is a matter of a day on the calendar as if one commits an 12–14 years. Since third molars are the only teeth available growing at
illegal act a day before he ceases to be a juvenile is considered a de- the age of 18 years, their development was considered most suitable
linquent act, otherwise as a criminal offense. Here the unlawful act is evidence for juvenile/adult discrimination. Mincer et al.19 were the first
the same, but the perpetrator of the act is a day older, and therefore, a to verify the usefulness of Demirjian's stages (DS) and third molars for
criminal.4 the discrimination of juvenile/adult status. Later Cameriere et al.20
have demonstrated the better performance of the specific value of third
1.1. MACR and judicial trend in India molar maturity index (I3M), I3M < 0.08, in discriminating adults or
minors compared to DS system. The applicability of latter in predicting
Article 40.3 of the Convention on the rights of the child defines the age of majority was tested successfully in various popula-
MACR as “the age below which a person is completely immune from any tions.5,21–30
criminal liability due to lack of maturity and judgment to understand the It is vital to adopt accurate age estimation methods prior con-
consequences of one's actions”.5 In practical terms, a separate justice sidering steps to prevent and treat delinquency. Moreover, recent trends
system for children that has rehabilitation and reintegration should be in India posed a task to forensic experts and pointed out the lack of
established. In India, the criminal system is governed and regulated by useful age estimation methods that can indicate whether if the in-
two major legislations including the Indian Penal Code, 1860 (IPC) and dividual in question is younger or older than MACR (16 years).
the Criminal Procedure Code, 1970 (CrPC). The IPC has set the Currently, there are no methods available in practice or in literature to
minimum age of criminal responsibility as 12 years.6 According to Ju- indicate MACR among Indian individuals. This study was undertaken to
venile Justice (Care and protection of children) Act, 2000, children derive a cut-off value of I3M which can be useful for predicting being
cannot be put into the same category as adults and hence required younger (< 16 years) or older than MACR (≥16 years).
special provisions for them. This act has set the age of criminal re-
sponsibility at 18 years that concurs definition of child under the UN
convention on the rights of the child.6,7 Juvenile offenders are accorded 2. Materials and methods
special treatment under this act and are not tried in the same courts as
adult offenders. In extreme cases under Juvenile Justice Act, the of- A final sample of panoramic radiographs (OPTs) of 1078 living
fenders will be sent to detention for a maximum period of three years in subjects was analyzed retrospectively (Table 1). OPTs used in this study
reformatory centers. were initialized for different clinical purposes on patients from the
In India, there has been a sharp rise in crimes committed by juve- Panineeya Institute of Dental Sciences, Hyderabad, Telangana and from
niles or young adults. According to the statistics of National Crime private dental clinics, Andhra Pradesh, India. Ethics Committee for
Records Bureau (NCRB), 27% of the juvenile crimes in 2015 were research involving human subjects approved the usage of OPTs in this
perpetrated by the individuals between ages 12–16 years, 1.4% by study. Each OPT was separately recorded in Excel file. Record com-
those between 7 and 12 years, and 71.6% by those between 16 and 18 prised an identification number, gender, date of birth, date of OPT. Real
years.8 Owing to the rise and brutality of criminal offenses particularly age in years was calculated as the difference between dates of OPT and
by juveniles, there was an increasing sense of urgency to create legal birth. The inclusion criteria for retrieving the sample for the analysis
avenues for some deterrence to warn off the under-age perpetrators.9 were: OPT of the good technical quality, age between 11 and 20 years,
no evidence of hereditary or systematic diseases which can affect the
1.2. Raising concerns dental and skeletal development, including hormonal deficiency or
hormonal therapy, gastrointestinal diseases. Exclusion criteria are any
As per NCRB statistics, in 2010, the toll of rape cases by juveniles missing or incomplete data on birth, agenesis of any permanent teeth
stood at 858, it became 1149 in 2011, 1316 in 2012, which further including all four third molars, extracted second and third molars, ro-
increased up to 1388 in 2013.9 Moreover, in last ten years, heinous tated or impacted third molars.
crimes by juveniles have increased four to five times. One such incident All OPTs were recorded in JPG format. Only third molars from the
is frightening gang-rape- cum-murder in Delhi in which one of accused left side of the mandible were evaluated according to Cameriere's
is a minor who allegedly committed the most brutal act has shifted the method. A freeware image-processing program (Adobe® Photoshop®
spotlight on juvenile offenders, their age bar, nature of crime and CS4) was used for all adjustment of a grayscale and brightness and
brutality involved.10 Keeping in mind the rise of offenses by minors, contrast improvement. Briefly, the measurements of the projections of
there is a need for the change of the current MACR (18 years) and to open apices, Ai, and height, Li, of the third molars were recorded and
make special provisions for serious offenses. Following this, there are I3M was calculated as the proportion of open apices and heights or
serious issues raised by law, regarding amendments to the criminal law
and MACR. This issue has reached the apex court of India, asking for Table 1
complete struck off the Act of 2000 and to make changes in various Age and Sex distribution of the data (training and test datasets) and the par-
provisions to enhanced punishment to a juvenile in conflict with the entheses in training dataset represents the number of participants with closed
apices of left second mandibular molar.
law.11 Later the government considered a proposal that under 18 years
accused of heinous crimes are tried as adults and passed a bill re- Age (years) Malesb Females Total Males Females Total
defining a juvenile's age in these offenses.12,13 training training training test test test
dataset dataset dataset dataset dataset dataset

1.3. Need of the hour and need for the study 11 26 (0) 39 (0) 65 (0) 10 10 20
12 35 (2) 50 (4) 85 (6) 11 10 21
In specific legal requirements, usage of low-invasive methods with 13 45 (15) 47 (14) 92 (29) 10 9 19
14 57 (24) 53 (38) 110 (62) 15 17 32
higher accuracy and precision are required to assign an age to a living
15 54 (43) 62 (55) 116 (98) 17 18 35
child without legal documents.14,15 To further improve the diagnostic 16 31 (30) 42 (40) 73 (70) 13 18 31
accuracy of age estimates, the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics 17 41 (41) 41 (40) 82 (81) 11 15 26
(AGFAD) recommended usage of methods in combination that includes 18 33 (33) 39 (39) 72 (72) 10 17 27
a physical examination with determination of anthropometric mea- 19 31 (31) 51 (51) 82 (82) 11 10 21
20 20 (20) 22 (22) 42 (42) 9 18 27
surements, examination of skeletal development that includes hand-
wrist bones and evaluation of dental status by dental exams.16–18 The Total 373 446 819 117 142 259
mineralization of the second molars completes between the age of

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S.B. Balla, et al. Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 65 (2019) 108–112

I3M = [Ai/Li]. I3M is evaluated in a similar way to the ratio Ai to Li,


when i = 6 or 7, as reported for the first and second lower molars, as
described in Cameriere et al.20 Additionally, if the development of the
root of TM completed, then I3M = 0.0 was recorded. Pearson correla-
tion coefficient was performed to test the correlation between I3M and
real age. The first author performed the measures of the sample. The
analyses were performed using a blind approach, and the observer was
not able to detect identification number, gender or age of the subjects.
The first author and one other observer additionally evaluated ran-
domly selected 50 OPTs two weeks after finished the first measure-
ments. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated to
assess intra-rater and inter-rater agreement of I3M.31 A sample of OPTs
was randomly divided into training dataset (819) and test dataset
(259).
A logistic regression linear model was tested on the training dataset
with dependent variables E = 1 and E = 0 to verify the significance of
the independent variables I3M and gender on the binary answer whether
a subject is ≥ 16 years (E = 1) or < 16 years (E = 0). The dummy
variable gender equals to 1 for boys and 0 for girls. The predictive
accuracy of the specific cut-off value of I3M to test whether a subject
is ≥ 16 years or < 16 years was established by determining the receiver Fig. 1. Scatter-plot of the relationship between age (years) and the third molar
operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the curve maturity index.
(AUC) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated with a
non-parametric method.20,32,33 If the cut-off is closer to the apex of the p < 0.05.
ROC curve to the upper left corner, it is the greater accuracy of the
test.33 The best performance of the discrimination test was established
as the maximum value of Youden's index (J). The greatest Youden's 3. Results
index was used to determine a specific cut-off value of I3M.34
The performance of the established cut-off value of I3M was eval- The final sample consisted of 1078 OPTs. Table 1 demonstrates the
uated by the two-by-two contingency table (CT) on the test dataset of distribution of the training and test datasets according to gender and
OPTs. Precisely, CT in the first row lists the results of those who are age. The number of subjects with closed apices of second molars in each
≥16 years and have I3M less than cut-off value (true positives, TP), age cohort was presented in parenthesis of training dataset of same
following those who are < 16 years and have I3M less than cut-off table. Closed apices were first noticed in both boys and girls at 12 years
value (false positives, FP). In the second row list those who are ≥16 age. None of the apices were open after 16 years of age in both genders.
years and have I3M ≥ than cut-off value (false negatives, FN), and fi- Pearson correlation coefficients for the correlation between I3M and real
nally, those who are < 16 and have I3M ≥ cut-off value (true nega- age were better for females, 0.780 (p < 0.001), than for males, 0.778
tives, TN). The percentage of accurate classification (Ac), sensitivity (p < 0.001), Fig. 1. The intra-class correlation coefficient for the intra-
(Se) or the percentage of the subjects ≥16 years who have I3M < cut- rater agreement was 0.912 while for the inter-rater agreement was
off value, and the specificity (Sp) or the percentage of individuals 0.891. Obtained results of ICC showed excellent results both on the
younger than 16 who have I3M ≥ cut-off value, were calculated. The precision and the repeatability of the variable I3M. The logistic model
positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) showed the significance of variable I3M (p < 0.001) while gender was
or the proportions of positive and negative results that are truly positive not statistically significant (p = 0.053), Table 2. The full model con-
and truly negative results, respectively were calculated.35 Also, the taining I3M as a predictor was statistically significant, χ2 (1,
positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) were 819) = 556.3, p < 0.001, indicating that model was able to dis-
also calculated to express how many times more or less likely a test criminate between those who are ≥16 years and < 16 years. The whole
result is to be found in (≥16 years) compared to (< 16 years) parti- model explained between 0.493 (Cox & Snell R Square) and 0.662
cipants.35 (Nagelkerke R Square) of the variance in ≥16 years and < 16 statuses.
The post-test probability p of being 16 years of age or older can help A linear logistic model may be written as:
to discriminate between those individuals who are 16 and over and Logit (p) = 2.086–5.102 × I3M (2)
under 16. According to Bayes theorem, the post-test probability may be
written as: The value for AUC was 0.936 (95% CI, 0.920 to 0.953). A cut-off
value of I3M, to discriminate that individuals are ≥16 years or < 16
Se × p0 years, was established for the highest value of the Youden index.35 The
p=
Se × p0 + (1 − Sp) × (1 − p0 ) (1) highest Youden index was 0.739 for the cut-off value of I3M = 0.293.
The validity and efficiency of a cut-off value of I3M < 0.293 to
where p is post-test probability and p0 is the probability that the subject discriminate individuals between ≥16 years or < 16 years was
in question is ≥ 16 years, given that he or she is aged between 11 and
20 years, which represent the target population. Probability p0 was Table 2
calculated as the proportion of subjects between 16 and 20 years of age Parameter estimates of the third molar maturity index (I3M) and gender (g) as
who live in the Andhra Pradesh according to demographic data from explanatory variables and ≥16 years (E = 1) and < 16 years (E = 0) age as
the 2011 census (http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/C- dichotomous dependent variable on Logistic Regression.
series/C-13.html) and those between 11 and 20 years which was B Std.Error Wald statistics df p
evaluated from data from the same web source. This proportion was
Constant 1.887 0.185 103.618 1 < 0.000
considered to be 51.3% for males and 51.9% for females. Statistical
I3M −5.176 0.340 231.190 1 < 0.000
analysis was performed by IBM SPSS 20.0 software program (IBM® gender 0.424 0.219 3.748 1 0.053
SPSS® Statistics, Armonk, NY). The significant threshold was set at

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S.B. Balla, et al. Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 65 (2019) 108–112

Table 3 errors.37,38 To reduce such errors related to subjectivism in the assess-


Contingency table describing discrimination performance of the test (≥16 ment of dental age and for a greater confidence interval, mensuration
years of < 16 years) for cut-off values of third molar maturity index (I3M) in techniques can be adapted to extract dimensional information from
females and males. images.39 In 2008, Cameriere et al.20 introduced such method that re-
Males Total Males Females Total Females quires measurement of apical pulp width and tooth length as visualized
in OPTs and ratio be calculated from them, which means that derived
Age Age index is scale-invariant and can also be applied to non-digital media
≥16 < 16 ≥16 < 16
that lacks information regarding magnification factor.21 Up to the age
of 14, most of the permanent teeth finished their maturation so only
Test third molars, which can maturate up to the early twenties, can be used
I3M < 0.293 48TP 9FN 57 72TP 8FN 80 for discriminating at 16 years threshold.38,40
I3M ≥ 0.293 5FP 55TN 60 8FP 54TN 62
In the present study, the authors analyzed the OPTs of 819 South
Total 53 64 117 80 62 142 Indian subjects aged between 11 and 20 years by logistic regression
analysis to derive a cut-off value using third molar maturity index, to
Abbreviation: TP, true positive; FN, false negative, FP, false positive, TN, true discriminate individuals who are around MACR (16 years of age). Only
negative. I3M statistically significantly contributed to the regression model while
gender did not. ROC analysis showed that cut-off value of I3M < 0.293
Table 4 the best discriminate subjects as 16 years of age and older or under 16.
The quantities from 2-by-2 contingency tables (95% confidence interval) to test For each threshold, there is a combination of sensitivity and specificity
the performance of cut-off value of I3M < 0.293 in males to discriminate obtained for different cut-off values that can be connected in a graph,
subjects as ≥16 years and < 16 years of age.
resulting in ROC curve. The more the ROC curve moves towards the left
Quantities Males Females upper corner, represents the perfect dichotomous test with 100% sen-
sitivity and 100% specificity, the better test it is.41 A measure of per-
Accuracy 88.0% (95% CI, 82.2%–93.9%) 88.7% (95%CI, 83.5%–93.6%)
Sensitivity 90.6% (95%CI, 82.7%–98.4%) 90.0% (95%CI, 83.4%–96.6%)
formance for the test is the area under the ROC curve, and it varies
Specificity 85.9% (95%CI, 77.4%–94.5%) 87.1% (95%CI, 78.8%–95.4%) between 0.5 (totally uninformative test) to 1 (a test that perfectly dis-
PPV 84.2% (95%CI, 74.7%–93.7%) 90.0% (95%CI, 83.4%–96.6%) criminates).42 In this paper, the resulting ROC curve (Fig. 2) has an area
NPV 91.7% (95%CI, 84.7%–98.7%) 87.1% (95%CI,78.8%–95.4%) under the curve (AUC) of 0.936 indicating that this test predicts the
LR + 6.44 (95%CI, 3.49 to 11.87) 6.97 (95%CI, 3.64 to 13.38)
likelihood of age being at least 16 years.35
LR - 0.11 (95%CI, 0.05 to 0.25) 0.11 (95%CI, 0.06 to 0.22)
Bayes PTP 87.2% (95%CI, 78.1%–96.2%) 88.3% (95%CI, 80.1%–96.4%) The results of the analysis of the test sample highlighted the ap-
plicability of derived cut-off value, and similar performance. The cut-off
Abbreviation: LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR+, negative likelihood ratio; value of I3M < 0.293 showed better sensitivity, 90.6% in males and
Bayes PTP, Bayes post-test probability. 90.0% in females, than specificity, 85.9% in males and 87.1% in fe-
males. Females were slightly better classified (88.7%) than males
evaluated on the test dataset, Table 3. Table 4 shows the values of the (88.0%). Further, the quantities obtained from 2-by-2 contingency table
test for males and females. In males, 103 out of 117 subjects, 88.0% (Table 3) to test the performance of cut-off value for discriminating
(95% CI, 83.9%–91.1%) were correctly classified. The sensitivity, or the subjects around MACR were discussed. What is the probability of an
proportion of subjects being ≥16 years of age whose test was positive, individual at a specific I3M cut-off value being at least 16? This is ex-
was 90.6% (95% CI, 82.7%–98.4%). The specificity, the proportion of pressed as the positive predictive value, and many studies have verified
subjects < 16 years whose test was negative, was 85.9% (95% CI, the forensic usefulness of Positive and Negative predictive values (PPV
77.4%–94.5%). PPV and NPV were 84.2% (95% CI, 74.7%–93.7%) and & NPV) and Likelihood ratios (LRs) to diagnostically analyze the
91.7% (95% CI, 84.7%–98.7%), respectively. Positive likelihood ratio probability of discriminating individuals.24,43 In the present study,
(LR+) and negative likelihood ratio (LR−) were 6.44 (95% CI, 3.49 to predictive values were used, less false positives indicate a higher PPV. A
11.87) and 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.25) respectively. The estimated
Bayes post-test probability was 87.2% (95% CI, 78.1–96.2%). In fe-
males, 126 out of 142 participants were correctly classified, 88.7%
(95% CI, 83.5%–93.6%). The sensitivity was 90.0% (95% CI,
83.4%–96.6%) and specificity was 87.1% (95% CI, 78.8%–95.4%). PPV
and NPV were 90.0% (95% CI, 83.4%–96.6%) and 87.1% (95% CI,
78.8%–95.4%), respectively. Positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and ne-
gative likelihood ratio (LR−) were 6.97 (95% CI, 3.64 to 13.38) and
0.11 (95% CI, 0.06 to 0.22), respectively. The estimated Bayes post-test
probability was 88.3% (95% CI, 80.1%–96.4%).

4. Discussion

Predicting one's attainment of MACR remains concern both in legal


and forensic aspects. Moreover, through odontology, one can provide a
solution for the application of specific techniques depending on the fact
that tooth mineralization is more controlled by genes and less by en-
vironmental factors.36 Adopting reliable and efficient scientific
methods to determine the status of an individual, i.e., above or below
16 years of age, within a specific population has become increasingly
important to resolve court cases. Although Demirjian's mineralization
stages of tooth mineralization were applied in general, appreciation of
these mineralization stages is often difficult, and the choice of assigning Fig. 2. Receiver operating characteristic curves for ≥16 years or older status of
a stage is quite subjective and commonly associated with prediction the third molar maturity index.

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