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Question 11 For Assignment
Question 11 For Assignment
11. Barbara Lynch is the product manager for a line of skiwear produced by HeathCo Industries and privately bra
sale under several different names, including Northern Slopes and Jacque Monri. A new part of Ms. Lynch's job is
provide a quarterly forecast of sales for the northern United States, a region composed of 27 states stretching fro
to Washington. A 10-year sales history is shown: (c4p11) Sales ($000)
a. Because Ms. Lynch has so many other job responsibilities, she has hired you to help with the forecasting effor
would like you to prepare a time-series plot of the data and to write her a memo indicating what the plot appea
and whether it seems likely that a simple linear trend would be useful in preparing forecasts.
b. In addition to plotting the data over time, you should estimate the least-squares trend line in the form: SALES
( TIME ) Set TIME = 1 for 2007 Q 1 through TIME = 40 for 2016 Q 4. Write the trend equation : SALES = _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ ( TIME ) ( Circle + or − as appropriate )
c. Do your regression results indicate to you that there is a significant trend to the data? Explain why or why not
d. On the basis of your results, prepare a forecast for the four quarters of 2017. Period TIME Sales Forecast (F1) 2
________________ 2017Q2 42 ________________ 2017Q3 43 ________________ 2017Q4 44 ________________
e. A year later, Barbara gives you a call and tells you that the actual sales for the four quarters of 2017 were: Q1
Q2 = 328,982, Q3 = 317,921, and Q4 = 350,118. How accurate was your model? What was the mean absolute per
error (MAPE)?
Intercepts 88741
Slope 5362.6
MAPE 12%
Sales Forecast
350,000 800,000
300,000 700,000
f(x) = 5362.6226078799x + 88741.0115384615
600,000
250,000 R² = 0.8661979797
500,000
200,000 400,000
150,000 300,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
50,000 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Sal es Time
ustries and privately branded for
part of Ms. Lynch's job is to
f 27 states stretching from Maine
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9306975769
R Square 0.8661979797
Adjusted R Square 0.8626768739
Standard Error 24961.564000242
Observations 40
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.53E+11 1.53E+11 246.0017 3.48E-18
Residual 38 2.37E+10 6.23E+08
Total 39 1.77E+11
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Sales
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.837743
R Square 0.701814
Adjusted R 0.698463
Standard E 78.58381
Observatio 91
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1293570 1293570 209.471 4.13E-25
Residual 89 549612 6175.415
Total 90 1843182
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1811.409 16.61237 109.0397 1.54E-96 1778.4 1844.417 1778.4 1844.417
Time 4.538892 0.313609 14.47311 4.13E-25 3.915758 5.162025 3.915758 5.162025
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted SASSS
Residuals
1 1815.948 69.05232
2 1820.487 64.51343
3 1825.025 99.97453
4 1829.564 61.43564
5 1834.103 65.89675
6 1838.642 49.35786
7 1843.181 21.81897
8 1847.72 73.28008
9 1852.259 96.74118
10 1856.798 66.20229
11 1861.337 60.6634
12 1865.875 28.12451
13 1870.414 37.58562
14 1874.953 -19.9533
15 1879.492 -21.4922
16 1884.031 56.96894
17 1888.57 49.43005
18 1893.109 7.891161
19 1897.648 66.35227
20 1902.187 60.81338
21 1906.726 -68.7255
22 1911.264 -34.2644
23 1915.803 11.1967
24 1920.342 -9.34219
25 1924.881 37.11892
26 1929.42 50.58003
27 1933.959 21.04114
28 1938.498 28.50225
29 1943.037 -3.03665
30 1947.576 15.42446
31 1952.114 -32.1144
32 1956.653 -19.6533
33 1961.192 -94.1922
34 1965.731 -47.7311
35 1970.27 -56.27
36 1974.809 -43.8089
37 1979.348 -112.348
38 1983.887 -96.8867
39 1988.426 -49.4256
40 1992.964 -132.964
41 1997.503 -99.5033
42 2002.042 -78.0422
43 2006.581 -39.5811
44 2011.12 -17.12
45 2015.659 -49.6589
46 2020.198 -77.1978
47 2024.737 -51.7367
48 2029.276 -53.2756
49 2033.814 -64.8145
50 2038.353 -49.3534
51 2042.892 -2.89226
52 2047.431 -71.4312
53 2051.97 -87.97
54 2056.509 -109.509
55 2061.048 -100.048
56 2065.587 -134.587
57 2070.126 -110.126
58 2074.665 -94.6645
59 2079.203 -135.203
60 2083.742 -69.7423
61 2088.281 -75.2812
62 2092.82 50.17993
63 2097.359 -95.359
64 2101.898 -11.8978
65 2106.437 -2.43674
66 2110.976 3.024367
67 2115.515 8.485475
68 2120.053 -22.0534
69 2124.592 -19.5923
70 2129.131 76.8688
71 2133.67 98.32991
72 2138.209 55.79102
73 2142.748 75.25213
74 2147.287 123.7132
75 2151.826 13.17434
76 2156.365 96.63545
77 2160.903 71.09656
78 2165.442 71.55767
79 2169.981 61.01878
80 2174.52 103.4799
81 2179.059 79.94099
82 2183.598 47.4021
83 2188.137 28.86321
84 2192.676 4.324319
85 2197.215 224.7854
86 2201.753 -89.7535
87 2206.292 83.70764
88 2210.831 143.1688
89 2215.37 -202.37
90 2219.909 -63.909
91 2224.448 200.5521
Date Time SASSS SASSS MA4 SASSS CMA SASSS CMAT CF SF SI
Jan-10 1 1885 1815.947683 0.74
Feb-10 2 1885 1820.486574 0.81
Mar-10 3 1925 1896.5 1898.375 1825.025466 1.040191 1.014025 1
Apr-10 4 1891 1900.25 1900.625 1829.564357 1.03884 0.994936 1.03
May-10 5 1900 1901 1893.5 1834.103249 1.032385 1.003433 1.04
Jun-10 6 1888 1886 1889.75 1838.64214 1.027797 0.999074 0.98
Jul-10 7 1865 1893.5 1899.625 1843.181032 1.030623 0.981773 0.98
Aug-10 8 1921 1905.75 1910.125 1847.719924 1.033774 1.005693 1.23
Sep-10 9 1949 1914.5 1921.625 1852.258815 1.03745 1.014246 0.96
Oct-10 10 1923 1928.75 1925.375 1856.797707 1.036933 0.998766 0.94
Nov-10 11 1922 1922 1916.875 1861.336598 1.029838 1.002674 0.98
Dec-10 12 1894 1911.75 1903.25 1865.87549 1.020031 0.99514 1.31
Jan-11 13 1908 1894.75 1886.75 1870.414381 1.008734 1.011263 0.74
Feb-11 14 1855 1878.75 1884.625 1874.953273 1.005158 0.984281 0.81
Mar-11 15 1858 1890.5 1894.25 1879.492164 1.007852 0.980863 1
Apr-11 16 1941 1898 1903.75 1884.031056 1.010466 1.019567 1.03
May-11 17 1938 1909.5 1922.75 1888.569947 1.018098 1.007931 1.04
Jun-11 18 1901 1936 1938.75 1893.108839 1.024109 0.980529 0.98
Jul-11 19 1964 1941.5 1929 1897.647731 1.016522 1.018144 0.98
Aug-11 20 1963 1916.5 1913.5 1902.186622 1.005948 1.025869 1.23
Sep-11 21 1838 1910.5 1905.875 1906.725514 0.999554 0.964386 0.96
Oct-11 22 1877 1901.25 1894.75 1911.264405 0.991359 0.990632 0.94
Nov-11 23 1927 1888.25 1903.75 1915.803297 0.993708 1.012213 0.98
Dec-11 24 1911 1919.25 1932.125 1920.342188 1.006136 0.989066 1.31
Jan-12 25 1962 1945 1948.5 1924.88108 1.01227 1.006928 0.74
Feb-12 26 1980 1952 1959 1929.419971 1.015331 1.01072 0.81
Mar-12 27 1955 1966 1963.25 1933.958863 1.015146 0.995798 1
Apr-12 28 1967 1960.5 1958.375 1938.497754 1.010254 1.004404 1.03
May-12 29 1940 1956.25 1951.875 1943.036646 1.004549 0.993916 1.04
Jun-12 30 1963 1947.5 1943.75 1947.575538 0.998036 1.009904 0.98
Jul-12 31 1920 1940 1930.875 1952.114429 0.98912 0.994368 0.98
Aug-12 32 1937 1921.75 1916.125 1956.653321 0.979287 1.010894 1.23
Sep-12 33 1867 1910.5 1909.75 1961.192212 0.97377 0.977615 0.96
Oct-12 34 1918 1909 1908.25 1965.731104 0.970758 1.005109 0.94
Nov-12 35 1914 1907.5 1907.5 1970.269995 0.968141 1.003408 0.98
Dec-12 36 1931 1907.5 1903.625 1974.808887 0.963954 1.01438 1.31
Jan-13 37 1867 1899.75 1902.875 1979.347778 0.961365 0.981147 0.74
Feb-13 38 1887 1906 1897.125 1983.88667 0.956267 0.994663 0.81
Mar-13 39 1939 1888.25 1892.125 1988.425561 0.951569 1.024774 1
Apr-13 40 1860 1896 1900.625 1992.964453 0.953667 0.978625 1.03
May-13 41 1898 1905.25 1908.75 1997.503344 0.955568 0.994368 1.04
Jun-13 42 1924 1912.25 1929 2002.042236 0.963516 0.997408 0.98
Jul-13 43 1967 1945.75 1954.25 2006.581128 0.97392 1.006524 0.98
Aug-13 44 1994 1962.75 1965.125 2011.120019 0.97713 1.014694 1.23
Sep-13 45 1966 1967.5 1968.25 2015.658911 0.97648 0.998857 0.96
Oct-13 46 1943 1969 1966.75 2020.197802 0.973543 0.987924 0.94
Nov-13 47 1973 1964.5 1964.875 2024.736694 0.970435 1.004135 0.98
Dec-13 48 1976 1965.25 1971 2029.275585 0.971283 1.002537 1.31
Jan-14 49 1969 1976.75 1985.125 2033.814477 0.97606 0.991877 0.74
Feb-14 50 1989 1993.5 1993.5 2038.353368 0.977995 0.997743 0.81
Mar-14 51 2040 1993.5 1992.875 2042.89226 0.975516 1.023647 1
Apr-14 52 1976 1992.25 1987 2047.431151 0.970484 0.994464 1.03
May-14 53 1964 1981.75 1971.875 2051.970043 0.960967 0.996006 1.04
Jun-14 54 1947 1962 1956.375 2056.508935 0.951309 0.995208 0.98
Jul-14 55 1961 1950.75 1950.25 2061.047826 0.946242 1.005512 0.98
Aug-14 56 1931 1949.75 1953.875 2065.586718 0.945918 0.988292 1.23
Sep-14 57 1960 1958 1955.875 2070.125609 0.94481 1.002109 0.96
Oct-14 58 1980 1953.75 1964.125 2074.664501 0.946719 1.008082 0.94
Nov-14 59 1944 1974.5 1981.125 2079.203392 0.952829 0.981261 0.98
Dec-14 60 2014 1987.75 2008.125 2083.742284 0.963711 1.002926 1.31
Jan-15 61 2013 2028.5 2035.75 2088.281175 0.974845 0.988825 0.74
Feb-15 62 2143 2043 2052.5 2092.820067 0.980734 1.044093 0.81
Mar-15 63 2002 2062 2073.375 2097.358958 0.988565 0.965575 1
Apr-15 64 2090 2084.75 2081.125 2101.89785 0.990117 1.004265 1.03
May-15 65 2104 2077.5 2092.75 2106.436742 0.993502 1.005376 1.04
Jun-15 66 2114 2108 2109 2110.975633 0.999064 1.002371 0.98
Jul-15 67 2124 2110 2110.125 2115.514525 0.997452 1.006575 0.98
Aug-15 68 2098 2110.25 2121.75 2120.053416 1.0008 0.988806 1.23
Sep-15 69 2105 2133.25 2146.75 2124.592308 1.010429 0.980552 0.96
Oct-15 70 2206 2160.25 2172.25 2129.131199 1.020252 1.015537 0.94
Nov-15 71 2232 2184.25 2198.375 2133.670091 1.030326 1.015295 0.98
Dec-15 72 2194 2212.5 2220.625 2138.208982 1.038544 0.98801 1.31
Jan-16 73 2218 2228.75 2220.375 2142.747874 1.036228 0.99893 0.74
Feb-16 74 2271 2212 2219.375 2147.286765 1.033572 1.023261 0.81
Mar-16 75 2165 2226.75 2228.5 2151.825657 1.035632 0.971505 1
Apr-16 76 2253 2230.25 2226 2156.364548 1.032293 1.012129 1.03
May-16 77 2232 2221.75 2230 2160.90344 1.031976 1.000897 1.04
Jun-16 78 2237 2238.25 2241.375 2165.442332 1.035066 0.998048 0.98
Jul-16 79 2231 2244.5 2247.875 2169.981223 1.035896 0.992493 0.98
Aug-16 80 2278 2251.25 2250.5 2174.520115 1.034941 1.01222 1.23
Sep-16 81 2259 2249.75 2248 2179.059006 1.031638 1.004893 0.96
Oct-16 82 2231 2246.25 2236.125 2183.597898 1.024055 0.997708 0.94
Nov-16 83 2217 2226 2246.375 2188.136789 1.026615 0.986923 0.98
Dec-16 84 2197 2266.75 2251.875 2192.675681 1.026999 0.975631 1.31
Jan-17 85 2422 2237 2246.125 2197.214572 1.02226 1.078302 0.74
Feb-17 86 2112 2255.25 2274.875 2201.753464 1.033211 0.928403 0.81
Mar-17 87 2290 2294.5 2243.375 2206.292355 1.016808 1.020783 1
Apr-17 88 2354 2192.25 2197.75 2210.831247 0.994083 1.071095 1.03
May-17 89 2013 2203.25 2220.125 2215.370139 1.002146 0.906706 1.04
Jun-17 90 2156 2237 2217.5 2219.90903 0.998915 0.972266 0.98
Jul-07 91 2425 2198 2198 2224.447922 0.98811 1.103276 0.98
Seasonal CMAT Coefficients Standard Error t Stat
1343.801285237 Intercept 1811.408791 16.6123731752 109.039736
1474.594125179 Time 4.538891543 0.3136085143 14.4731132
1825.025465839
1884.451288103 Regression Statistics
1907.467378882 Multiple R 0.837743149
1801.869297659 R Square 0.701813584
1806.317411371 Adjusted R Square 0.698463174
2272.695505972 Standard Error 78.58381101
1778.168462494 Observations 91
1745.389844243
1824.109866221
2444.296891543 MONTHS SI
1384.10664214 JAN 0.74
1518.712150979 FEB 0.81
1879.492164357 MAR 1
1940.551987578 APR 1.03
1964.112745342 MAY 1.04
1855.246662207 JUN 0.98 Multiple Regression -- Result Formula
1859.69477592 JUL 0.98
2339.689545151 AUG 1.23 SASSS = 1,811.41 + ( (TIME) * 4
1830.456493072 SEP 0.96
1796.58854085 OCT 0.94
1877.487230769 NOV 0.98
2515.648266603 DEC 1.31
1424.411999044
1562.83017678
1933.958862876 Accuracy Measures Value
1996.652687052 AIC 1,052.50
2020.758111801 BIC 1,055.01
1908.624026756 MAPE 3.16%
1913.072140468 Sum Squared Error (SSE) 549,611.97
2406.683584329 R-Square 70.18%
1882.74452365 Adjusted R-Square 69.85%
1847.787237458
1930.864595318
2586.999641663
1464.717355948
1606.94820258
1988.425561395
2052.753386527
2077.403478261
1962.001391304
1966.449505017
2473.677623507
1935.032554228
1898.985934066
1984.241959866
2658.351016722
1505.022712852
1651.06622838
2042.892259914
2108.854086001
2134.048844721
2015.378755853
2019.826869565
2540.671662685
1987.320584807
1950.184630674
2037.619324415
2729.702391782
1545.328069756
1695.184254181
2097.358958433
2164.954785475
2190.69421118
2068.756120401
2073.204234114
2607.665701863
2039.608615385
2001.383327281
2090.996688963
2801.053766842
1585.63342666
1739.302279981
2151.825656952
2221.05548495
2247.33957764
2122.13348495
2126.581598662
2674.659741042
2091.896645963
2052.582023889
2144.374053512
2872.405141902
1625.938783564
1783.420305781
2206.292355471
2277.156184424
2303.984944099
2175.510849498
2179.958963211
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
1.54E-96 1778.40036 1844.417 1778.4003596 1844.4172229
4.13E-25 3.915758105 5.162025 3.9157581053 5.1620249812
SASSS
of AS would you make for a city where INC = $23,175 and POP = 128.07?
Area Auto Sales Household Income Population
1 185792 23409 133.17
2 85643 19215 110.86
3 97101 20374 68.04
4 100249 16107 99.59
5 527817 23423 289.52
6 403916 19426 339.98
7 78283 18742 89.53
8 188756 18553 155.78
9 329531 21953 248.95
10 91944 16358 102.13
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
Y=-307507.7474+14.56x2+1397.32x2
b) With our variables being household income and population, both being positive they both correlate to increase then aut
The signs for the coefficients are consistent with our expectation.
C) Question???
d) For our R squared its .9295. This value implies that 95% of the variation in auto sales is explained by the independent va
d) For our R squared its .9295. This value implies that 95% of the variation in auto sales is explained by the independent va
e) For Household Income equally $23175 and Population being 128.0 the point estimate will equal=
208713.498594638
0.964124011
0.9295351085
0.9094022824
47640.7531672028
10
df SS MS F Significance F
2 209579252943.23 1.05E+11 46.17013 9.28762679E-05
7 15887489536.368 2.27E+09
9 225466742479.6
tive they both correlate to increase then auto sales would increase as well.
fficients you have estimated are statistically different from zero, using a
a one-tailed test.
Q1 through 2017Q4 along with the values predicted for each quarter
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9508222168
R Square 0.904062888
Adjusted R Squa 0.8960681287
Standard Error 21715.7246346
Observations 40
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1.6E+11 5.33E+10 113.0819 2.21E-18
Residual 36 1.7E+10 4.72E+08
Total 39 1.77E+11
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Dec-14 32 229879 0 1 273019.841249 A
Mar-15 33 289321 1 0 278953.137748 Li
Jun-15 34 266095 0 0 258150.775686
Sep-15 35 262938 0 0 263514.999811
Dec-15 36 322052 0 1 294476.737748
Mar-16 37 313769 1 0 300410.034248
Jun-16 38 315011 0 0 279607.672185
Sep-16 39 264939 0 0 284971.89631
Dec-16 40 301479 0 1 315933.634248
Mar-17 41 334271 1 0 321866.930747
Jun-17 42 328982 0 0 301064.568685
Sep-17 43 317921 0 0 306428.79281
Dec-17 44 350118 0 1 337390.530747
11. a. Construct a time-series graph of the sales data for HeathCo’s line of skiwear (see data in c5p11). Does the
sales data? Explain why you think the results are as you have found. (c5p11)
b. It seems logical that skiwear would sell better from October through March than from April through Septem
adding two dummy variables to the data: a dummy variable Q1 = 1 for each first quarter (January, February, M
variable Q4 = 1 for each fourth quarter (October, November, December) and Q4 = 0 otherwise. Once the dumm
data set, estimate the following trend model: SALES b 0 + b 1 ( TIME ) + b 2 Q 1 + b 3 Q 4 Evaluate these results
make sense? Why or why not? Are the coefficients statistically different from zero at a 95 percent confidence le
the variation in SALES is explained by this model?
c. Use this model to make a forecast of SALES (SF2) for the four quarters of 2017 and calculate the MAPE for th
2017Q1 334,271 _____ 2017Q2 328,982 _____ 2017Q3 317,921 _____ 2017Q4 350,118 _____
d. Prepare a time-series plot of SALES (for 2007Q1 through 2016Q4) along with SF2 (for 2007Q1 through 2017Q
compare.
SUMMARY OUTPUT Multiple Regression -- Result Formula
Sales
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
13
19
20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
17 and calculate the MAPE for the forecast period. Period SALES ($000) SF2
350,118 _____
h SF2 (for 2007Q1 through 2017Q4) to illustrate how SALES and SF2
Result Formula
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.934395
R Square 0.873095
Adjusted R Square 0.801013
Standard Error 6545.889
Observations 48
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 13 1.03E+10 7.94E+08 20.06638281 3.1291204E-12
Residual 35 1.5E+09 42848667
Total 48 1.18E+10
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 29847.24 3535.886 8.441233 5.862658E-10 22669.0059666
Time Index 945.2771 70.42256 13.42293 2.293148E-15 802.311693284
M1 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0
M2 2521.723 4629.178 0.544745 #NUM! -6876.0088837
M3 16675.2 4630.785 3.600944 0.000972962 7274.20225288
M4 15851.17 4633.462 3.421021 0.001602676 6444.74138285
M5 19615.89 4637.206 4.23011 0.000159639 10201.8622673
M6 18999.11 4642.016 4.092858 0.000238449 9575.32015341
M7 13799.59 4647.889 2.969001 0.005363645 4363.87175673
M8 16678.31 4654.819 3.58302 0.001022978 7228.52523797
M9 9261.783 4662.803 1.986312 0.054873377 -204.20982454
M10 10464.01 4671.835 2.239807 0.031555309 979.677533026
M11 1430.729 4681.908 0.305587 0.761729486 -8074.0503765
M12 2896.452 4693.017 0.617183 0.541108478 -6630.8799315
M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 Time Index 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 36
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 49
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 64
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 81
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 100
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 121
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 144
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 169
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 196
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 256
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 289
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 361
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 400
12. AmeriPlas, Inc., produce
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 441
a. Prepare a time-series plo
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 484 Ronnie Mills, the product m
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 529 sales are slowest in Novem
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 576
b. Since production is close
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 625
monthly fluctuations. She h
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 676 mentioned four months. Do
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 729
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 784 c. Ronnie believes that the
forecasting effort, she has a
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 841
of increase of sales growth?
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 900
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 961 d. Use the model in part (c
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1024 2017. Actual sales for those
2017 119807
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1089
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1156
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1225
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1296
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1369
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1444
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1521
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1600
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1681
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1764
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1849
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1936 110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
110,000
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2025 100,000
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2116
90,000
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2209
80,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2304
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2401 70,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2500 60,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2601 50,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2704 40,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2809
30,000
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2916
20,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95943
R Square 0.920507
Adjusted R 0.86468
Standard E 5180.773
Observatio 48
ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 13 1.09E+10 836777094.34 33.77403
Residual 35 9.39E+08 26840404.417
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0% Total 48 1.18E+10
37025.46 22669.01 37025.46
1088.242 802.3117 1088.242 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
0 0 0 Intercept 40221.12 2850.154 14.111911068 5.19E-16
11919.45 -6876.01 11919.45 M1 -2873.39 3711.093 -0.774271749 0.443969
26076.19 7274.202 26076.19 M2 -160.427 3704.473 -0.043306167 0.965704
25257.6 6444.741 25257.6 M3 14145.62 3698.037 3.8251711983 0.000516
29029.92 10201.86 29029.92 M4 13435.51 3691.868 3.6392163508 0.000874
28422.91 9575.32 28422.91 M5 17275.47 3686.052 4.686713776 4.12E-05
23235.3 4363.872 23235.3 M6 16695.26 3680.679 4.5359196164 6.46E-05
26128.1 7228.525 26128.1 M7 11493.64 3675.845 3.126802559 0.003547
18727.78 -204.21 18727.78 M8 14331.6 3671.648 3.9033151594 0.000413
19948.33 979.6775 19948.33 M9 6835.639 3668.192 1.8634900252 0.070801
10935.51 -8074.05 10935.51 M10 7919.761 3665.584 2.1605727734 0.037657
12423.78 -6630.88 12423.78 M11 -1270.29 3663.935 -0.34669974 0.730893
M12 0 0 65535 #NUM!
Time Index 19.33415 1.100753 17.564471133 #NUM!
12. AmeriPlas, Inc., produces 20-ounce plastic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of prominent beers an
a. Prepare a time-series plot of the sales data. Does there appear to be a regular pattern of movement in the data th
Ronnie Mills, the product manager for this product line, believes that her brief review of sales data for the four-year p
sales are slowest in November, December, January, and February than in other months. Do you agree?
b. Since production is closely related to orders for current shipment, Ronnie would like to have a monthly sales forec
monthly fluctuations. She has asked you to develop a trend model that includes a time index and dummy variables fo
mentioned four months. Do these results support Ronnie’s observations? Explain.
c. Ronnie believes that there has been some increase in the rate of sales growth. To test this and to include such a po
forecasting effort, she has asked that you add the square of the time index (T) to your model (call this new term T2). I
of increase of sales growth? Compare the results of this model with those found in part (b).
d. Use the model in part (c) to forecast sales for 2017. Calculate the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the fi
2017. Actual sales for those six months were: Jan-2017 87327 Feb-2017 84772 Mar-2017 112499 Apr-2017 102633 Ma
2017 119807
Sales
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
Sales
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 1314 1516 1718 19 2021 2223 24 2526 2728 2930 31 3233 3435 3637 38 39 4041 4243 4445 46 4748
Significance F
1.296276316505E-15