NAMA : RACHMAD HIDAYATULLAH

KELAS : MANAJEMEN PRODUKSI / A

NBI : 1421700072

PERMINTAAN
PERIODE
(UNIT) 900
Sep-17 346 800
Okt-17 525
700
Nop-17 424
Des-17 142 600
Jan-18 241 500
Feb-18 255 PERMINTAAN
400 (UNIT)
Mar-18 424
Apr-18 412 300 POLA DATA
Mei-18 477 200
Jun-18 647
100
Jul-18 763
Agust-18 416 0
Sep-18 532
Okt-18 497
Nop-18 532
Des-18 423
Jan-19 321
Feb-19 411
Mar-19 225
Apr-19 322
Mei-19 ?

PERIODE t PERMINTAAN t² t .dt t .dt= a+b.t

Sep-19 -10 346 (-10)² = 100 (-10)*(346) = -3460 d'₁ = 416,75+1,73 . (-10) = 39945
Oct-19 -9 525 (-9)² = 81 (-9)*(525) = -4725 d'₂ = 416,75+1,73 . (-9) = 40118
Nov-19 -8 424 (-8)² = 64 (-8)*(424) = -3392 d'₃ = 416,75+1,73 . (-8) = 40291
Dec-19 -7 142 (-7)² = 49 (-7)*(142) = -994 d'₄ = 416,75+1,73 . (-7) = 40464
Jan-20 -6 241 (-6)² = 36 (-6)*(241) = -1446 d'₅ = 416,75+1,73 . (-6) = 40637
Feb-20 -5 255 (-5)² = 25 (-5)*(255) = -1275 d'₆ = 416,75+1,73 . (-5) = 40810
Mar-20 -4 424 (-4)² = 16 (-4)*(424) = -1696 d'₇ = 416,75+1,73 . (-4) = 40983
Apr-20 -3 412 (-3)² = 9 (-3)*(412) = -1236 d'₈ = 416,75+1,73 . (-3) = 41156
May-20 -2 477 (-2)² = 4 (-2)*(477) = -954 d'₉ = 416,75+1,73 . (-2) = 41329
Jun-20 -1 647 (-1)² = 1 (-1)*(647) = -647 d'₁₀ = 416,75+1,73 . (-1) = 41502
Jul-20 1 763 (1)² = 1 (1)*(763) = 763 d'₁₁ = 416,75+1,73 . (1) = 41848
Aug-20 2 416 (2)² = 4 (2)*(416) = 832 d'₁₂ = 416,75+1,73 . (2) = 42021
Sep-20 3 532 (3)² = 9 (3)*(532) = 1596 d'₁₃ = 416,75+1,73 . (3) = 42194
Oct-20 4 497 (4)² = 16 (4)*(497) = 1988 d'₁₄ = 416,75+1,73 . (4) = 42367
Nov-20 5 532 (5)² = 25 (5)*(532) = 2660 d'₁₅ = 416,75+1,73 . (5) = 42540
Dec-20 6 423 (6)² = 36 (6)*(423) = 2538 d'₁₆ = 416,75+1,73 . (6) = 42713
Jan-21 7 321 (7)² = 49 (7)*(321) = 2247 d'₁₇ = 416,75+1,73 . (7) = 42886
Feb-21 8 411 (8)² = 64 (8)*(411) = 3288 d'₁₈ = 416,75+1,73 . (8) = 43059
Mar-21 9 225 (9)² = 81 (9)*(225) = 2025 d'₁₉ = 416,75+1,73 . (9) = 43232
Apr-21 10 322 (10)² = 100 (10)*(322) = 3220 d'₂₀ = 416,75+1,73 . (10) = 43405
May-21 ?

TOTAL 0 8335 770 1332

 8335
a= = 416,75
𝟐𝟎

1332
b= = 1,73
770

Traking
dt d't ERROR RSFE Abs.Error Kum.(6) = MAD
Periode Signal
Bulan (unit) (Unit) (2)-(3)= Kum.(4) l(4)l = (7)/(1)=
(1) (5)/(8) =
(2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
(9)
Sep-19 1 346 39945 -39599 -39599 39599 118791 118791 -0.3333502
Oct-19 2 525 40118 -39593 -79192 79192 197983 98991.5 -0.7999879
Nov-19 3 424 40291 -39867 -119059 119059 317042 105680.7 -1.1265921
Dec-19 4 142 40464 -40322 -159381 159381 476423 119105.8 -1.338147
Jan-20 5 241 40637 -40396 -199777 199777 676200 135240 -1.4772035
Feb-20 6 255 40810 -40555 -240332 240332 916532 152755.3 -1.5733133
Mar-20 7 424 40983 -40559 -280891 280891 1197423 171060.4 -1.6420572
Apr-20 8 412 41156 -40744 -321635 321635 1519058 189882.3 -1.6938655
May-20 9 477 41329 -40852 -362487 362487 1881545 209060.6 -1.7338852
Jun-20 10 647 41502 -40855 -403342 403342 2284887 228488.7 -1.7652602
Jul-20 11 763 41848 -41085 -444427 444427 2729314 248119.5 -1.7911816
Aug-20 12 416 42021 -41605 -486032 486032 3215346 267945.5 -1.8139211
Sep-20 13 532 42194 -41662 -527694 527694 3743040 287926.2 -1.8327408
Oct-20 14 497 42367 -41870 -569564 569564 4312604 308043.1 -1.8489748
Nov-20 15 532 42540 -42008 -611572 611572 4924176 328278.4 -1.8629675
Dec-20 16 423 42713 -42290 -653862 653862 5578038 348627.4 -1.8755326
Jan-21 17 321 42886 -42565 -696427 696427 6274465 369086.2 -1.8868954
Feb-21 18 411 43059 -42648 -739075 739075 7013540 389641.1 -1.8968096
Mar-21 19 225 43232 -43007 -782082 782082 7795622 410295.9 -1.9061414
Apr-21 20 322 43405 -43083 -825165 825165 8620787 431039.4 -1.9143612

5.0
Traking
4.0 Signal

3.0 CONTROL
LINE
2.0
BATAS
1.0 ATAS
0.0 BATAS
-0.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 BAWAH
-1.0 -0.8 -1.1
-1.5 -1.6
-1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9-1.9 -1.9 BATAS
-2.0 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8
-1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 ATAS
-3.0 A&B
BATAS
-4.0 BAWAH
A&B
-5.0

Dari peta kontrol terlihat semua periode masih dalam batas kontrol, karena hanya ada tujuh titik berturut-turut
di daerah C. Sehingga peramalan VALID .
Perbandingan diagram pencar dari data permintaan dengan diagram pencar hasil peramalan
900

800

700

600

500 POLA DATA

400 POLA
PERAMALAN
300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Dari diagram pencar terlihat bahwa pola data historis sesuai sekali dengan pola peramalan, maka peramalan
dapat dikatakan valid.