IN THE NAME OF ALLAH, THE MOST BENEFICENT,

THE MOST MERCIFUL

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 TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING (CE-862)
(Lec -4)

Lt Col Dr. MUHAMMAD JAWED IQBAL

Ph.D., P.E., MIE (Pak), A.M. ASCE
E-Mail: drjawediqbal@mce.nust.edu.pk
jawediqbal.39@gmail.com
Cell # 0300-2393023
TRIP GENERATION
 BACKGROUND
 Trip Generation means” to forecast the
number of personal trips that will begin or
end in each TAZ for a typical day in target
year
Independent Variable (Land Dependent Variable (Base year
use/ socio economic factors) trips)

Calibration (Base year observations and surveys) Relationship between

variables and travel quantified, numerical parameters estimated

Calibrated model used for predictive purposes based upon land use and
socioeconomic projections in target year

Trip ends Qij / Tij or PI and AJ

 TRIP PURPOSE

1. Trip purposesHB or NHB

a. Home based School
b. Home based Work
c. Home based Shopping
d. Home based Recreational
e. Non Home based
2. Separate estimation for each
3. All have different character
4. Travel behavior depends upon trip purpose
 Zonal Based verses Household
Based Models

 Zonal based (Aggregate)  Household based

 Zones be accurately (Disaggregate)
delineated.  Zones may be larger
 Smaller zones.  Household attributes
 Zonal attributes  Family income
 Population Average income  Family members
 Average vehicle ownership  Vehicles
 Accuracy affected  More accurate
 Sample survey expanded.  Now even individual
 Leads to ‘Zonal total trip based
ends”  Sample survey expanded.
 Different house groups
combined to make ‘Zonal
total trip ends”
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 Productions and Attractions

Zone I Zone J
O D

NR R NR R

D O

OD is in terms of direction & PA is in OD easy to collect & PA easy to

terms of land use predict in future

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 1
0

4
2
0
1

0
0

3
0

8
 Other information
collected may
include
Income
Family Size
1
Car ownership
0 School
etc
Office
4 HBS
2 Network
0 (Bus)
HBW 1 inventory
(Auto) HBW
0 (Auto) Knowing sample
Home-A
0 NHBO Population trips
HBO determined and
(Auto)
(Bus) 3 checked for
0 survey accuracy
HBO
(Auto)
Different
Recreation Home-B matrices may
be drawn
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Origin Destination Matrices
HBS HBW HBO

O/D 10 21 30 40 Total O/D 10 21 30 40 Total O/D 10 21 30 40 Total

10 2 2 10 0 10 0

21 0 21 2 2 21 0

30 0 30 2 2 30 4 4

40 2 2 40 1 1 40 3 3

Total 2 0 0 2 4 Total 0 3 2 0 5 Total 0 0 3 4 7

All HB NHBO/ NHB ALL

O/D 10 21 30 40 Total O/D 10 21 30 40 Total O/D 10 21 30 40 Total

10 2 2 10 0 10 2 2

21 2 2 21 1 1 21 3 3

30 2 4 6 30 0 30 2 4 6

40 2 1 3 6 40 0 40 2 1 3 6

Total 2 3 5 6 16 Total 0 0 1 0 1 Total 2 3 6 6 17

Auto PT & So On

O/D 10 21 30 40 Total O/D 10 21 30 40 Total O/D 10 21 30 40 Total

10 0 10 2 2 10 2 2

21 3 3 21 0 21 3 3

30 2 4 6 30 0 30 2 4 6

40 1 1 40 2 3 5 40 2 1 3 6

Total 0 3 3 4 10 Total 2 0 3 2 7 Total 2 3 6 6 17

Production Attraction Matrices

HB NHB Auto PT All Trip Ends

Zone P A Zone P A Zone P A Zone P A Zone P A

10 4 10 10 10 4 10 4
21 5 21 1 21 1 5 21 21 1 5
30 4 7 30 1 30 4 5 30 3 30 4 8

40 12 40 40 5 40 7 40 12

Total 16 16 Total 1 1 Total 10 10 Total 7 7 Total 17 17

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DEFINITIONS
4 STAGES OF TDM
TRIP DEFINITION
PRODUCTION-ATTRACTION
Example 1
PRODUCTION-ATTRACTION
Example 2
 TRIP MAKING
1. A function of three basic factors
a. Land use pattern, development in the area
b. Socio economic characteristics of trip making
population/ home
c. Nature extent and capabilities of
transportation systems
2. These independent variables keep
changing with time and geographical
locations
3. Once present nature is understood future
can be predicted or assessed 17
 FACTORS INFLUENCING
1. Land use pattern, Development in the
Area
a. High and low density compared
b. Area allocated for shopping, manufacturing,
services, hole sale, educational, recreational
etc
c. Small facilities (educational, commercial)
may be ignored
d. Large can not be ignored
e. Developments in the area
f. Government policies
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 FACTORS INFLUENCING
1. Socio economic characteristics of trip
making population/ home
1. Family size
a. Relationship exists between family size and trips.
2. Vehicle ownership
a. Satisfy needs
b. Social status
c. Number
d. Accessibility
e. Family size large or small, high or low car
ownership
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 FACTORS INFLUENCING
1. DU
a. Permanent and temporary

b. Hotels and hostels

2. Occupation
a. Employed persons

b. Recreational trips for employed and unemployed

c. Increase status

3. Family Income
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 FACTORS INFLUENCING

1. Other Factors
1. Age group
2. Blue and white collars
3. Urbanization
4. Female working
5. Distance from central area
6. System quality
FORECASTING TRIP GENERATION

1. Modelling process is difficult

a. Complex
b. Mutual dependence
c. Variability
2. Methods
a. Trip Rate Analysis
b. Category (Cross Classification) Analysis
c. Regression Analysis
 Trip Generation

 Trip-Rate Analysis

◦ Average trip-production or trip-attraction rates for

specific types of producers and attractors

◦ More suited to trip attractions

 Trip-Rate Analysis
 Example
 Trip-Rate Analysis
For 100 employees in a retail shopping center, calculate the total number of
trips
Home-based work (HBW) =
100 employees x 1.7 trips/employee = 170
Home-based Other (HBO) =
100 employees x 10 trips/employee = 1,000
Non-home-based (NHB) =
100 employees x 5 trips/employee = 500

Total = 170 + 1000 + 500 = 1,670 daily trips

 Trip Generation

 Manuals for Trip Rates

◦ Institute of Transportation
Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation
Manual

◦ Dubai Trip Generation Manual

 Dubai Trip Generation Manual

 How to Use
◦ Identify the Land Use
◦ Match the Land Use with Trip Generation
Manual Class
◦ Time Period
◦ Units
◦ Average Rate and Regression Equation
◦ In and Out Distribution
Abu Dhabi Trip Generation
Manual

 Developed in Year 2013

 Based upon studies done in

Emirates of Abu Dhabi

Land use Structure
Land use
Structure
Land use
Structure
Spatial Distribution for Manual
Steps to Calculate Trip
Generation Rates
Trip Generation
 Cross Classification Models
◦ Uses trip rates based on one or more explanatory

or "independent" variables

◦ Trip rates are determined by aggregating data

from surveys such as household travel surveys

Cross Classification Models
 House hold characteristics used in Cross
Classification Models

◦ House hold Size

◦ Car ownership

◦ Income
Cross-classification (category analysis)

Situation: Zone 1 characteristics are

Households Income level
Household size <10,000 10,000 to 30,000 >30,000
1 10 100 50
2 10 200 50
3+ 30 100 50

Home based work (HBW) trip production data

HBW trip rate Income level

Household size <10,000 10,000 to 30,000 >30,000
1 1.5 2.5 2.5
2 2.5 4 5
3+ 3 5 7
 Cross-classification Models

 Advantages of cross-classification
 Independent of zone system
 No regression related assumptions necessary
 Disadvantages
 No extrapolation
 No trip rate for cells with no observations
 Difficult to add additional stratifying variables
 Difficult to choose household groups
2520/1200 = 2.1

25*2.1 = 52
 Using Trip Generation Manual
ITE Trip Generation Manual
Proposed Trip Generation
Daily Trips
Trip Gen
Land Use Size Trip Generation Classification Trip Gen
Rates
Dwelling Units
Houses 131 DU Single-Family Detached Housing (210) 9.60 1,258
Town Houses 42 DU Condominium/Townhouse (230) 5.60 235
Live Work DU 42 DU Condominium/Townhouse (230) 3.60 151
Apartments 140 DU Apartment (220) 6.70 938
Commercial
Live Work 21,000 SF Single Tenant Office (715) 11.60 244
Mixed Use 1 181,800 SF Specialty Retail Center (814) 44.32 8,057
Mixed Use 2 181,800 SF Shopping Center (820) 42.90 7,799
Lodging
Hotel 350 Rooms Hotel (310) 8.90 3,115
Civic
Town Hall 42,000 SF Government Office (730) 34.00 1,428
Library 30,000 SF Library (590) 44.00 1,320
Pool 5,150 SF Recreation Center (495) 16.00 82

Totals 24,628

Proposed size of project

Estimated number of trip ends = 24,600

Norman W. Garrick
Trip Generation
Cross-classification Example
Total Home-Based-Non-Work Trip Rates

Persons per Household

Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+

High Density 0 0.6 2.1 4.6 7.0

1 1.5 3.0 5.5 7.9

2+ 1.8 3.4 5.9 8.3

Number of Households in Target Year

Persons per Household

Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+

High Density 0 100 200 100 100

1 200 300 200 100

2+ 100 200 100 200