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by
Päivi Lujala
Department of Economics
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Dragvoll
NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
Paivi.Lujala@svt.ntnu.no
March 2003
Abstract
Recent research has identified natural resource abundance as a factor that may significantly
increase the risk of conflict onset. However, at present there are no clear guidelines for
classifying resources to assess precisely how the economic incentives and opportunities for
violent conflict and rent seeking differ for various natural resources. The inadequate
classification of resource types, as well as a lack of resource data itself, has impeded statistical
research that links risk of conflict onset and conflict type, location and duration with type of
natural resources. This paper develops a classification scheme for minerals to be used in
conflict research. The classification is based on the different aspects of resource exploitation
from exploration to the end markets. The classification scheme could also be used to assess
how the type of natural resource affects economic growth.
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2003 ECPR Joint Session of Workshops, Edinburgh,
UK 28.3 – 2.4.
resources, especially minerals, may increase the risk of conflict. The results are, however,
inconclusive, and while some find positive relation between risk of conflict and extent of
natural resource dependency (Collier & Hoeffler 2002a, 2002b) and abundant mineral stocks
(de Soysa 2002), others found this relationship insignificant, very weak (Elbadawi &
Sambanis 2002) or only confined to oil dependency (Fearon & Laitin 2001). These
inconsistent findings may be due to the aggregated variables commonly employed as a proxy
for natural resources (e.g. primary commodity exports to GDP ratio). There is substantial
evidence to suggest that the specific characteristics of different natural resources can have a
performance. Recent empirical studies show a negative correlation between abundant natural
resources and economic growth (see for example Gylfason, Herbertsson & Zoega 1998; Sachs
& Warner 1995, 1999). While these researchers acknowledge that the impact of agricultural
production on growth might differ from that of mineral production, they have not assessed the
possibility that different mineral resources may also vary in their impact on growth depending
on their characteristics.
This paper begins by discussing why there is need to classify natural resources
according to their characteristics. The paper then presents how natural resources have been
classified in recent studies and gives some reasons why these classifications are not sufficient.
Finally, the paper presents a classification scheme that encompasses mineral resources from
the exploration stage to the end markets. Of specific interest is the extent to which minerals
2
are lootable and to what extent revenue flows from these resources can be controlled by
for example, Collier & Hoeffler 2002a, 2002b) and may prolong conflict duration (Fearon
2002). It is, however, not sufficient to simply state that natural resources cause and fuel
conflicts as this leaves little hope for resolving current conflicts and possibly preventing
others. It is essential to study why, how and to what extent natural resources affect conflict
To achieve this goal, it is important to recognize that not all resources share the same
characteristics. For example, wheat production differs considerably from the extraction of
precious gemstones even though both would be classified as primary products in export
statistics. Similarly, minerals differ from each other and a relevant difference between mineral
resources might be the ease of exploitation. Some resources require relatively minimal
investment on extraction equipment and they can be exploited under conflict conditions by a
small band of people or by individuals (for example, extraction of placer gemstones in Sierra
Leone and Myanmar to finance rebel movements). Other resources may require extensive
necessary investment and expertise from large multinational companies. Resources in the
second category are better extracted during peaceful conditions, even though the presence of
valuable resource may motivate fighting over the control of resource and the associated
revenues (for example oil in Aceh, Indonesia, in Cabina, Angola and in Southern Sudan).
3
The different types of natural resources and their impact on conflict require different
policy responses to prevent and settle conflicts. For example, resources that provide revenue
flows to rebel forces during a conflict may be curbed by placing sanctions on the commodities
exported by the rebels. However, sanctions and embargoes might not be the right measure or
even feasible when addressing natural resources that require a more stable political and
investment environment for exploitation, but could prompt conflict aimed at controlling these
resource. To prevent such a conflict, policy measures that address unequal distribution of
existing natural resource revenues, provide compensation to those who suffer due to
environmental damage of resource extraction, and promote the transparency of financial flows
may prove to be more effective. To settle such a conflict, these same issues, addressed in a
credible manner, could comprise part of a successful peace settlement. The nature of natural
resource is also likely to affect the international community’s leverage on fighting groups; for
example, if the commodity flows can be subject to sanctions, the outside powers may have
In addition, if resources are not properly grouped, we risk diluting the results of any
analysis since the different natural resources may affect the dependent variable (risk of
conflict, duration, economic growth etc.) differently and even to opposite directions. For
example, it is conceivable that some natural resources may actually shorten the duration of a
conflict while others may prolong them. Similarly, some resources may raise the risk of
conflict onset while others may do not have such an effect on the risk of conflict.
Research on civil war is not the only domain that is interested in natural resources;
economics would also benefit from a better classification structure for natural resources.
4
Economists are interested to define to which extent resource abundance affect economic
Common to both the conflict and economic growth research is that they have not
seriously attempted to determine which natural resources are most likely to increase the risk of
conflict or which have most effect on adverse economic growth. In general, most studies fail
characteristics such as low mining costs and high value-to-weight ratio that explain the
perceived relation between natural resources, armed conflict and economic growth.
conflict may differ from those that influence the rate of economic growth. Therefore, there
might not exist one classification scheme that is good for both economic research and civil
war, although as far as poor economic growth has been implicated as a cause of conflict, there
resource abundance or dependency. Most studies use primary product exports ratio to GDP as
1
In the mid-90s, it became clear that countries with high dependency on primary product exports perform worse
than countries that are less dependent on natural resource exports. One plausible explanation for the poor
economic performance is so-called Dutch disease, while another argues that abundant resources provide easily
accruable rents that can sustain harmful political and institutional structures that would not persist without the
resources. (For Dutch disease and other explanations, see for example, Sachs & Warner 1995, 2001; Auty & Gelb
2001; Robinson, Torvik & Verdier 2002; Ross 1999)
2
In the recent empirical studies, natural resource and primary commodity have been used interchangeably. The
two terms, however, do not mean the same thing. A primary commodity is a good that has not been manufactured
or refined while natural resources are inputs provided by nature, such as oceans, land and mineral deposits that
are used to create income. Thus, forest and agricultural products are primary commodities but not natural
resources (soil is the actual natural resource; cultivation just a mean to exploit it).
5
a measure of dependency (Collier & Hoeffler 2002a, 2002b; Elbadawi & Sambanis 2002;
Fearon & Laitin 2001). Some, as for example, Collier & Hoeffler (2001) use export structure
to define the main resource type exported1 and likewise Fearon & Laitin (2001) use the export
structure to define a dummy variable for significant oil exporters. de Soysa (2002) employs an
taking the absolute value of stock of resource per capita for renewable resources (agricultural
These aggregate and export structure types of measures for natural resource availability
are inevitably coarse. In these measures, resources that are very different from one another are
lumped together, and minimal attention is given to the fact that minerals differ greatly from
one to another. For example, while placer diamonds are easily exploited, kimberlite diamonds
theoretical and case studies of attempts to divide natural resources into more precise groups.
Conflict literature has so far tried to classify resources according to their rate of regeneration,
who claim that conflict outbreaks are related to resource scarcity often argue that renewable
natural resources are the conflict generating resource type (Homer-Dixon & Blitt 1998;
Brander & Taylor 1998). Renewable resources are defined as resources that are regenerated on
a human time scale. Examples of renewable resources are water, fisheries and forests. These
types of resources are often connected in ecological systems; for example, water is necessary
1
Collier & Hoeffler (2002a) classify primary commodity exports into food, non-food agricultural, oil, other raw
materials and ‘mixed’ categories.
6
for forest growth and fisheries. By contrast, non-renewable resources are less likely to
participate in the circular flows of the ecosystem, and exploitation of one resource typically
does not affect the availability of the other resources (as long as the extraction does not
destroy the other resource). Non-renewable resources can be considered as a stock that has a
geographically small areas or does it spans larger areas? For example, forests cover wide areas
and are therefore considered to be diffuse resources. Point resources are highly concentrated
and do not have a significant areal extent on a map. For example, many minerals occur in
small areas, and on a map, these deposits are represented as points.2 Some empirical studies
have used the point-diffuse distinction to assess natural resources affect on conflict. For
example, to assess the scope of conflict Buhaug & Gates (2002) define activities such as oil
drilling and pit mining as point resources while timber, drug cultivation and alluvial diamonds
resources – geographical concentration and regeneration rate. Based on literature, the scarcity
approach can be understood as mostly concerned with the resources located in the upper left
corner of the figure (renewable diffuse resources) while abundance oriented conflict literature
1
For example, peat’s regeneration rate is not zero since peat forms slowly in the swamps. However, on any
practical time horizon, the regeneration rate is almost zero, and thus peat is often considered to be a non-
renewable resource.
2
Point resources are commonly associated with higher rents than diffuse resources and thus provide incentives
for rent seeking. In the literature, abundant point resources are often associated with higher risk of conflict (see
for example, Addison et al. 2001; Addison & Murshed 2001).
7
tends to blame resources located in the lower right corner (non-renewable point resources)
for conflict propensity. This may mean that the two approaches – one claiming scarcity of
natural resources is causing conflicts and the other one accusing abundance – do not need to
be incompatible.
Renewable Non-renewable
Le Billon (2001) considers the difference between point and diffuse resources in his
typology of conflict types. Besides dividing resources into point and diffuse resources, he also
assesses the relative location of resource area in relation to state capital used as a proxy for
state control. He argues that point resources near the capital are associated with coup d’état
attempts while point resources located in the periphery motivate violent secession conflicts.
Diffuse resources in turn are associated with riots when located near the capital and, when
farther away, with wardlordism as several armed groups may violently claim their share of
natural riches.
The division of natural resources into point and diffuse resources faces several
challenges. First, not all resources are clearly point or diffuse but rather fall between the two
extremes. For example, while kimberlite diamonds clearly are point resources, placer
diamonds are more spread out and can be considered (semi-)diffuse. On a global scale,
however, placer diamonds can still be considered as point resources since these areas are
relatively small and limited to few regions in the world. Likewise, oil deposits are often
8
classified as point resources, although an oil field can in fact be quite extensive. The fact
oilrigs are point extraction sites does not change the reality that an oil field on a geographical
scale might be as much semi-diffuse as a placer diamond deposit. Moreover, it is not clear that
all resources in either the “point” or “diffuse” categories have same characteristics and same
impact on conflict.
and legality and forms hypotheses how these three resource characteristics affect civil war.
Ross defines lootability as the ease of resource extraction and transportation. As examples of
contrast, he categorizes deep-shaft minerals and gemstones, oil and natural gas as non-lootable
resources. Ross also differentiates between the ease of transportation of the natural resource
product and how easily the available mode of transportation is blocked (i.e., its
obstructability). For example, diamonds or drugs that are flown from the production area are
not obstructable while resources that are transported by trains or trucks are moderately
obstructable. Resource transported by pipelines, like gas and oil, are the most obstructable.
Ross’ (2002) method of classifying the resource’s lootability may better capture the
potential value of a resource for a rebel group, and it may also assess when the resource is
valuable to the rebels– either during conflict or after peace is restored. It can be argued that the
point-diffuse categories may be one element of lootability since point resources may be easier
for government to control than resources that are spread over larger areas. All other things
being equal, rebel forces would find diffuse resources easier to loot than point resources.
However, to account for lootability, one has to consider the different aspects of
resource exploitation from exploring to end markets for all minerals. In general, based on case
9
studies, resources such as alluvial diamonds and drug production have been considered as
lootable resources. There may be many more resources that could potentially be classified as
lootable. Since there are no agreed criteria for lootability and therefore, no systematic effort to
find natural resources that might be lootable, these other resources are not accounted for in
empirical conflict studies. Until now, resources defined as lootable have been identified from
case studies that show that resource revenues were used to finance the conflict. (Examples
include precious stones in Sierra Leone, Angola, Zaire and Myanmar and coca cultivation in
resource characteristics should also be considered. Lootability is probably one of the most
important ones. The value of a resource for a rebel group is based on its lootability during a
conflict and is defined among other things by the easiness of extraction and transportation
(Ross 2002).
in sophisticated technology and skilled labor is required that are often available only during
peacetime when large companies are willing to establish mining activities. During a conflict,
future revenues from such a resource are likely to have a relatively high discount value and are
associated with significant uncertainty since the revenues only occur after victorious rebellion
and the reestablishment of peace. Therefore, a non-lootable resource may be less likely to
increase the risk of conflict onset than the availability of lootable resources. In the case of
lootable resources that only are available to the rebels during a conflict, the duration of
conflict is likely to increase since the conflict situation boosts rebel income and finances the
warfare. Therefore, the lootability of resources is probably significant in assessing the conflict
10
RESOURCE CLASSIFICATION IN ECONOMIC GROWTH LITERATURE
Examples of classifications of natural resources can also be drawn from economic
research. In their influential empirical study on resource abundance and growth, Sachs &
Warner (1995) find that natural resource abundance is detrimental to growth. While Sachs &
Warner are not interested to estimate whether different resource types have different affect on
growth, they do test separately the affect of mineral resource production on growth – as a part
Others, like Auty & Gelb (2001), Isham et al. (2002) and Murshed & Perälä (2001),
argue that revenues from point resources are likely to be captured by the government and elite.
They maintain that the substantial revenues generated by these point resources alienate the
government/elite from the population as they not require the population’s support to derive
funds through a taxation system. It is implicit in these arguments that government/elite that are
not directly responsible to the general population will use resource rents to their own, short-
sight benefit and uses the revenues inefficiently due to corruption and poor policy decisions.
By contrast, diffuse resources such agriculture benefits growth, since the revenues are less
likely to be capture by the elite and the government is more dependent on the population to
Some empirical studies on resource abundance and economic growth have sought to
differentiate between point and diffuse resources. Isham et al. (2002) divide countries to four
categories according to their export structure and define countries that mainly export diffuse,
point, coca and coffee, and manufactured products. As point resources, they define resources
such as oil, diamonds and plantation crops and as diffuse agricultural products such as wheat,
rice and animals. They place coffee and cocoa in a separate category since they can be
cultivated either by small-scale farmers or on plantations. Murshed & Perälä (2002) appear to
11
use a dummy variable to separate countries with point resource from those with diffuse
resources.
In economic literature, there also seems to be little effort to examine whether some
sub-set of natural resources are more adversely related to growth. However, as long as all
natural resources are considered detrimental to growth, there seems to be little room for policy
suggestions – countries would be better of leaving their natural resource base unexploited. If
we knew which resources potentially have most adverse affect on growth and under which
circumstances, it would be a lot easier to design measures to reduce adverse effect of resource
To classify natural resources according to their characteristics and to assess the degree of
These include not only the ease of extraction and transportation but also exploration, and
refining and storage before transportation. Things like availability of substitutes and rareness
may also affect the profitability of resources. In this chapter, the aspects of mineral resource
exploitation are considered from two angles: lootability of the resource from the rebels’ point
of view and controllability of revenue flows by the government/elite. The first aspect accounts
for rebel financing during a conflict, the second the extent to which the revenue flows can be
12
controlled by government.1 Figure 2 shows different aspects that may have to be considered
Figure 2. The figure drafts aspects that may make a resource lootable.
It can be that extremely concentrated resources may be less lootable for rebel groups since the
government is better able to control and defend the site. This is base on the belief that the
government has superior military force and thus can defend the resource site against rebel
forces: rebels, on the other hand, do not have same capabilities to seize and defend such a
place. Rebel groups in turn may profit more from diffuse resources that are spread out and are
much more difficult for the government to defend. Likewise, the state has a better ability to
control revenue flows from point than diffuse resources regardless of whether the country is
1
The next phase of this work is to apply these criteria to all minerals in order to define most lootable resources as
well as those that are most likely to be under government control.
13
Exploration
Exploration is an integral part of natural resource exploitation. Some resources occur on the
Earth’s surface and they can be spotted with minimal effort. These resources exist in
secondary deposits that have been formed after primary deposits have been exposed to
weathering (water, wind etc.) and now occur, for example, in stream gravels. While
identifying regions with prospects of secondary deposits may require extensive knowledge of
earth sciences and geology, secondary deposits are often found by accident.
Most mineral resources are buried under topsoil or they occur in deep rock formations.
explore promising prospect areas) and investment in exploring technology (e.g. test drilling
etc.). Often the exploration stage is associated with a high risk of failure and high levels of
uncertainty since the deposit may not exist at all, is smaller than expected or the extraction site
proves to be more demanding than originally thought (i.e., complex rock formation, resource
multinational companies that possess the required skills and can bear the cost of the
uncertainty. These types of resources are less lootable, at least at this stage, due to the high
initial costs. This may also hold true in cases where resource is known to exists but the mining
has not yet been undertaken. It is possible that in same cases, resources with high initial
exploration costs may be extracted easily once located. This would imply that an established
mine is lootable, but the raw prospect is not in the absence of considerable investment.
1
Sometimes the site may be located in difficult place such as in the periphery of a country without roads,
electricity etc. or under water (sea bottom) or in permafrost environment. This, however, cannot be accounted for
in a classification scheme, but it can be assessed in an analysis if the location of the resource deposit is known.
14
Because of the high exploring costs and capital outlay, large multinational companies
with capital and risk bearing capacity will likely require that the state is involved/or can be
involve in mining activities. Multinational companies generally require assurances that the
political and economic environment is stable. In addition, most states also require some form
of approval for registering mineral concessions and projects, as well as they often have
financing and ownership rules. These conditions result in that the state probably has a greater
control of the resources and can gather considerable fees for granting exploration rights.
Mining
Labor:
Depending on the mineral resource and deposit type, the labor requirement varies. Sometimes
mining is labor intensive but frequently; it does not require a skilled workforce. This could
imply that local labor can be used (and rebels may even use forced labor). The mining of other
deposits, however, require highly skilled workforce, which may not be available locally or
even nationally. Thus, mining may require a presence of large company that can bring in
experts.
Technology:
If moderate or high level technology is required for mining, there is an increased likelihood
that a large multinational company will be doing the mining since it has access to required
Together, the requirements for labor and technology define if the mining can be
means to exploit the site. Resources that can be exploited with unskilled workers are more
15
lootable that resources that require skilled workforce. Likewise, lower technology and
Similarly, to the exploitation stage, the higher the requirements for skilled workforce
and/or technology more likely it is that a large company is involved in mining. This again
makes it more likely that the government/elite is involved, or at least is informed of activity
and its value, and therefore, has possibility to acquire and direct the revenue flows.
In some cases, it is necessary to refine extracted minerals before they are transported/exported.
Sometimes the minerals co-exist with other minerals and must be separated from each other.
Additionally, the mineral may have a low concentration level in the extracted ore and
concentration techniques are necessary. Refining can be relatively easy, for example, if it is
sufficient to use running water to separate the mineral from the associated rock. The refining,
however, may be complicated, especially if the mineral co-exists with another substance in a
Minerals that require refining beyond simple methods and locally available products
are less lootable for a rebel force. In contrast, these resources may require the presence of
large companies, which again increases the probability that government is able to influence the
revenue flows.
Storage
Products that do not require a special storage place are more lootable since the rebel forces do
not need to have the skill, technology or buildings to store the looted products. The most
lootable products are those that will not perish if left outside for periods. Some products with
16
extremely high value (such as diamonds) may not take much place for storage but require a
Transport
Natural resource products may be transported by different means. Some of them may require
pipelines, special containers, deep-water harbors or trains. Some are suitable for road
transport, and some can even be transported by airplanes or by an individual (for example
Natural resources that do not require special infrastructure to be transported are more
lootable. Additionally, natural resources can also be looted during the transport. If the product
requires heavy infrastructure to be transported (e.g. pipeline), the looting group probably faces
prohibiting problems in transporting the product to the markets. Therefore, while some oil
pipelines are vulnerable to attacks, the rebel forces are not likely to finance their fighting by
Natural resources that are suitable for different modes of transportation and that are
easily transported are more lootable since the looted product can be easily delivered to a
potential buyer. If the resource must be transported through a “choke point” such as a deep-
water harbor or by train, the state is more able to control resource flows. Resources that are
transported via air or by trucks may be more difficult for the government to control.
1 Some minerals such as tantalum (coltan) often co-exist with naturally radioactive minerals (e.g. thorium and
uranium). For proper storage, thorium and uranium (and their decay products) would be stored in a thick lead
container.
2
Although pipelines on the land can be disturbed, pipelines on the sea bottom are unlike to be targets for a rebel
group.
17
End markets
community may be reluctant to pose and/or enforce sanctions on those resources. This is
especially true if there are no compatible substitutes for the resource product and the product
Markets:
If the international markets for the natural resource product are well established, transparent
and function effectively, it is more difficult to export resource products without disclosing
information on price and volumes and without leaving a traceable record on product and
revenue flows.
Resources that are strategic and confined to a handful of countries may be more
“lootable” since sanctions are less likely and enforcement may be more difficult. If the
markets for the product are characterized by secrecy, this may make the natural resource
production and exportation easier for the rebel forces since the buying companies can hide the
real source of product and avoid being blamed for questionable trade.
probably does not differ from other resources. The secrecy of markets should not affect that
either. However, countries with strategic resource may be held less accountable for how
18
Price per ton (value-to-weight ratio):
Price per ton reflects many aspects of resource exploitation: the availability of resource, its
transpiration costs, substitutes, world mining capacity, the industry and refinery needs and
capability.
Resources that have high value-to-weight ration are more lootable since they are easy
to transport (smuggle). A critical question is, to what extent price information could be used to
To assess the impact on economic growth, the price per ton per se may not be so
important, but the total value of mineral exploitation (that is price multiplied by the volume).
Stability of price:
Price volatility at the international markets. Resource products that have stable value, give
CHALLENGES
The classification scheme introduced above obviously faces several challenges. One of the
difficulties of applying it is that many minerals occur in different deposit types and thus the
exploitation requires different type and amount of technology, skilled labor and refining. All
this affects mining costs, and the quality of deposit and mineral may directly influence the
selling price. Sometimes these differences are so clear, like in the case when a mineral occurs
both in primary and secondary deposits, that it is possible to classify one mineral to sub-
forest products. The classification scheme may be adapted to these resources as well, but
19
substantial changes may have to be made. It is also questionable if there is need to classify all
different products. It may be sufficient to differentiate between food products such as wheat,
vegetables and fruits, “pleasure” products such as tea, coffee and tobacco, fishing and etc.
Another possibility to is to divide production according its end use; are the products meant to
CONCLUSION
This paper has sought to show that although there are some guidelines how natural resources
could be divided to point and diffuse resources, or assessed according to their lootability, until
now most empirical testing has applied the primary product exports to GDP or to total export
ratios as measures for abundance, without accounting for the differences between different
natural resources. At best, the resource base/exports have been divided to fuels, other minerals
types have not yet provided a coherent method to assess resources’ different characteristics.
This paper develops classification scheme that sets a criteria against which minerals
slow growth. Specifically, for the latter, it is important to define the resource with rents that
the state (or the elite) can control easily. For this purpose, the classification into point and
diffuse resources will be of use, since in the case of point resources, the production is
concentrated and location specific, and thus taxation is more easily arranged and controlled.
For the former, lootability of resources during a conflict will also be significant.
20
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