1ac – inherency

Contention one is INHERENCY –

The US massively cut arms sales to Pakistan

Stacey, 18 (Kiran, “Pakistan shuns US for Chinese high-tech weapons”, Financial Times,
https://www.ft.com/content/8dbce0a0-3713-11e8-8b98-2f31af407cc8) gbn-rkp

One former Pakistani minister recalls telling colleagues the US decision confirmed his worst
fears.

AND

last year, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

And it canceled a large contract with Turkey

Rogers et. al, 7/17/19 (Katie and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “U.S. Punishes Turkey by Canceling
Sale of Jets”, NY Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/world/europe/us-turkey-russia-
missiles.html) gbn-rkp

WASHINGTON — The White House informed Turkey, a NATO ally, on Wednesday that

AND

have detrimental impacts on Turkish interoperability with the alliance,” the statement said.

1ac – corruption adv

Advantage one is CORRUPTION:

Opaque offsets---or, procurement arrangements under which the buying nation receives
investments from the seller in exchange for making a defense purchase---are causing hollow
AND corruption-ridden development globally.

Schoeni, 15 - With the U.S. Air Force Judge Advocate General Corps since 2004 and is
assigned to Hanscom Air Force Base (Daniel E., “SECOND-BEST MARKETS: ON THE
HIDDEN EFFICIENCY OF DEFENSE OFFSETS.” 44 Pub. Cont. L.J. 369. Lexis.)

A. Prejudice, Economic Theory, and Intuition It is widely held that offsets

AND

the corruption risk may be the single most important consideration weighing against offsets.

Corruption caused by opaque arms sales undermines disaster prevention AND mitigation---
transparency solves.
Alexander, 17 - University College London (David, 10/26/2017. “Corruption and the Governance
of Disaster Risk.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. oxfordre.com,
doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.253)

During the Cold War, much was made of the “military-industrial complex

AND

have the opportunity to contest decisions that are not in the public interest.

Outweighs nuclear war

Wright, 18 - Holds an M.S. in Meteorology, editor for The Weather Channel, and citing the 2018
Global Risks Report, authored by almost 1,000 scientists and decision-makers. 01-19-18. (Paul,
“Extreme Weather Events Have Greatest Likelihood of Threatening Human Existence, Experts
Say”, https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-01-19-extreme-weather-threatens-
human-existence)

Extreme weather events are the most likely threat to humanity in the next 10 years

AND

with a stronger sense of urgency in order to avoid potential system collapse."

Specifically---corruption exacerbates environmental AND disease risks

Holden, 16 - Historian and researcher whose books include Who Rules South Africa?, The Devil
in the Detail: How the Arms Deal Changed Everything, and The Arms Deal in Your Pocket,
currently works with Corruption Watch UK (Paul, “Myth 1 Higher Defense Spending Equals
Increased Security.” Indefensible: Seven Myths That Sustain the Global Arms Trade, Zed Books
Ltd, 09/15/2016)

There’s no security in waste and corruption The second way in which defense spending can

AND

actually make the world safer, healthier, more prosperous and more secure.

Each loss risks crossing invisible thresholds to extinction.

Atkins and Maroun, 18 - Atkins is from the Accounting and Financial Management Division,
University of Sheffield; Maroun is from the School of Accountancy, University of the
Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (Jill and Warren, “Integrated Extinction Accounting and
Accountability: Building an Ark.”, Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal, vol. 31, no. 3,
pp. 750–786.)

Habitat loss, mono agriculture, global warming and climate change, invasions by alien
AND

to disappear, humanity probably would not last more than a few months.

Diseases cause extinction---broader incubation opportunities elevate the risk

Pamlin and Armstrong, 15 - Dennis Pamlin, Executive Project Manager Global Risks, Global
Challenges Foundation; Stuart Armstrong, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity
Institute, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. (“Global Challenges: 12 Risks that threaten
human civilization: The case for a new risk category.”, Global Challenges Foundation, February
2015, https://api.globalchallenges.org/static/wp-content/uploads/12-Risks-with-infinite-
impact.pdf)

Here only worldwide events are included. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in

AND

humanity succumbs to other risks (such as climate change or further pandemics).

1ac – sustainability adv

Advantage two is SUSTAINABILITY:

Offsets are an unsustainable, self-defeating approach that undermines the defense-industrial

base:

First, legal and reputational risks---offsets expose contractors to backlash that collapses market
influence

Dehoff et al. 14. Kevin Dehoff is a director in McKinsey’s New York office, John Dowdy is a
director in the London office, and O Sung Kwon is an associate principal in the Southern
California office. June 2014. "Defense offsets: From ‘contractual burden’ to competitive
weapon." McKinsey and Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-
insights/defense-offsets-from-contractual-burden-to-competitive-weapon

The value of international deals for Western contractors can be significant. Recent competitions
to

AND

regulatory challenges and competitive pressures reinforce the need for a sound offset strategy.

Dissipating US supply chains cause cyber infiltration

DOD, 18 (“Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and
Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States”, the Interagency Task Force in Fulfillment of
Executive Order 13806) gbn-rkp
The defense manufacturing supply chain flows goods and critical supporting information through
multiple organizations of

AND

threats have emerged with the potential to cause major disruption in manufacturing operations.

Goes nuclear – supply chain infiltration causes miscalc

Wasson and Bluesteen, 18 - Wasson is a Senior Analyst and Manager at Systems Planning and
Analysis, works on threat assessment, security risk, and organizational performance for the U.S.
Navy, National Nuclear Security Administration, and private sector clients, former visiting
assistant professor of political science at the Rochester Institute of Technology; Bluesteen is a
Principal Analyst and Group Leader at Systems Planning and Analysis. (Jesse and Christopher,
“Taking the Archers for Granted: Emerging Threats to Nuclear Weapon Delivery Systems.”
Defence Studies, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 433–453.)

In the years following the DSB study, scholarly research has appeared that begins to

AND

and conflict dynamics could, in the end, be just as damaging.

Second, balance sheet liabilities---the failure to meet offset obligations guarantees penalties on
direct investments which include tech transfers

Anderson and Moores, 13 - Guy Anderson is a Senior Principal Analyst, AandD Industry, at IHS
Jane’s; Ben Moores is a Senior Analyst with IHS Jane’s DS Forecast (“The growing burden of
offsets.” 10-30-13, Jane’s Defence Weekly. Vol. 50, Iss. 44. pp 28-33)

Greater military investment in the world’s developing countries will lead defence contractors to
accrue offset

AND

how flowing in unintended directions is something for contractors to be mindful of.

Tech transfer through offsets proliferates sensors and mines---regulating the content of
agreements is key, but disclosure’s a prerequisite

Petty, 99 - Lt. Col. Frank S. Petty Held leadership positions at every level of command from
senior aviator, chief of contracting, commander, and director of various Defense Contract
Management Agency organization (Frank, “Defense Offsets: A Strategic Military Perspective.”
The DISAM Journal, Summer 1999, https://www.discs.dsca.mil/Pubs/Indexes/v.21_4/petty.pdf)

Proliferation Arms proliferation is a global concern, especially for weapons of mass destruction (
AND

offsets are detrimental to the U.S. military and national security.

Sensor prolif escalates hotspots

Stratfor, 19 (“Sensor Proliferation Is Changing How We Wage War.” Stratfor Worldview,

4/11/19, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/sensor-proliferation-changing-how-we-wage-
war#/entry/jsconnect?client_id=633726972andtarget=2Fdiscussion2Fembed3Fc3D1554992961
00026vanilla_category_id3D126vanilla_identifier3D29906626vanilla_url3Dhttps253A252F252F
worldview.stratfor.com252Farticle252Fsensor-proliferation-changing-how-we-wage-war

One such revolution currently underway is the proliferation of sensors. Warfare utilizes sensors
in

AND

and this could lull the overly confident into a false sense of security.

Land mine prolif shreds social AND ecological resiliency---extinction

Ahmed, 14 - Senior Research Fellow, Department of Strategic and Regional Studies (DSRS),
University of Jammu, Jammu and Kashmir, India. March 2014 (Imtiaz, “Landmines: A Threat to
Sustainable Development.” IOSR Journal Of Humanities And Social Science, Volume 19, Issue
3, Ver. IV. pp 01-08.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6af6/9671677a56d91c00d4b005a7659e94e2ec01.pdf)

4. Sustainable Development in the Aftermath of Landmine Crisis Combined effects of landmines

have

AND

the Ottawa treaty is a step towards sustainable development in mine affected areas.

Transparency solves –

1—it enables US political branches to differentiate good deals from bad

Petersen, 11 - Assistant director and senior economist with the U.S. Government Accountability
Office (Carol Dawn, 06/2011, “Defense and Commercial Trade Offsets: Impacts on the U.S.
Industrial Base Raise Economic and National Security Concerns.” Journal of Economic Issues,
vol. 45, no. 2, pp. 485–492.

In terms of national security, offsets may enhance or undermine U.S.

AND
not align with the economic and national security interests of the United States.

2—only public exposure ensures companies don’t overpromise and underdeliver

Holden, 16 - Historian and researcher whose books include Who Rules South Africa?, The Devil
in the Detail: How the Arms Deal Changed Everything, and The Arms Deal in Your Pocket,
currently works with Corruption Watch UK (Paul, “Myth 4 The Defense Industry is a Key
Contributor to National Economies.”, 9/15/16, Indefensible: Seven Myths That Sustain the
Global Arms Trade, Zed Books Ltd.)

As we saw in Chapter Two, offsets and counter-trade are often a

AND

don’t have to improve their products or production techniques to actually win contracts.

1ac – plan text

The United States federal government should substantially reduce Foreign Military Sales and
Direct Commercial Sales offset by compensatory procurement arrangements lacking real-time,
itemized reporting from the United States.

1ac – solvency

The final contention is SOLVENCY:

Current reporting requirements are weak---the plan’s comprehensive approach closes

corruption loopholes and empowers oversight

Tierney, 16 - London School of Economics. (Lachlann, “An Ethical Arms Deal? Offsets, Virtue
Ethics, Transparency and Democracy. London School of Economics and Political Science.”
08/30/2016, www.academia.edu,
https://www.academia.edu/37017613/An_Ethical_Arms_Deal_Offsets_Virtue_Ethics_Transpare
ncy_and_Democracy)

These three considerations then make a compelling case for offset regulation within
democracies. This

AND

role from export control and data collection to a more integrous oversight organization.

Disapproving export licenses is key

Flamm, 99 - Brookings Institution (Kenneth, “The Policy Context for Military Aerospace Offsets.”
Chapter 14 in Trends and Challenges in Aerospace Offsets. National Academies Press. 1999.
pp.126-127. https://www.nap.edu/read/6315/chapter/14)
It is therefore not difficult to see why there is no official U.S

AND

packages has been, and continues to be, approval of export licenses.

EU policy demonstrates BOTH the empirical viability of achieving our particular legal change
AND its subsequent effectiveness in BOTH deterring corrupt practices AND empowering
broader public criticism (both in the U.S. and in purchasing countries)

Lambrecht, 12 - George Washington University Law School (Ryan Jay, 08-31-12. “The Big
Payback: How Corruption Taints Offset Agreements in International Defense Trade.”
https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/3629-lambrecht-r-the-big-payback-2012)

Transparency Proposals To promote transparency, the Code of Conduct requires Member

States to provide

AND

publicizing subcontract awards in the interest of increasing public accountability for defense
offsets.

The aff creates a global model---US lead is key

Schoeni, 16 - With the U.S. Air Force Judge Advocate General Corps since 2004 and is
assigned to Hanscom Air Force Base (Daniel, “DEFENSE OFFSETS AND PUBLIC POLICY:
BEYOND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY.” 76 A.F. L. Rev. 95. Lexis.)

2. Increase transparency One thing that all can agree on is that supplier governments

AND

or else a hasty ban on offsets may prove a similarly disappointing solution.

Informed clash in policy debates is key to increase transparency, demand accountability, and
create effective advocates

Holden 16 – historian, researcher, and director of investigations at Corruption Watch UK (Paul,

Indefensible: Seven Myths that Sustain the Global Arms Trade, p. 174, lasa-SI)

This is a problem of enormous proportion, well-funded and powerful, with

AND

can make the world a safer, more prosperous and more harmonious place.