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2019, 18:52
Testing Info
Dates: 1/1/2006 to 10/31/2019
The basket of EYFs is AGG, DBX, EEM, EFA, GLD, HYG, IWM, LQD, QQQ, SPY, TLT and VNQ.
Sell Rule
Last day of month
If both rules are false then exit
If there is a change in position size, scale to that size
Sell on open of next day
Using this method, the strategy becomes more invested the more confident it is in the market. At
least that is the theory.
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Trend-Following Plus Momentum in ETFs – Alvarez Quant Trading 13.12.2019, 18:52
Comparing
I will be using the same comparison method as in the Trend-following vs. Momentum in ETFs post.
Compounded Annual Rate (CAR): Annual growth rate of portfolio. The higher the better
Risk Adjusted Return (RAR): CAR divided by Exposure %. The higher the better
Max. system % drawdown (MDD): The largest peak to valley percentage decline experienced in
portfolio equity. The lower the better.
Ulcer Index (UI): Square root of sum of squared drawdowns divided by number of bars. The lower
the better.
Sharpe Ratio (SR): The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of
volatility or total risk. The higher the better.
When comparing two methods, each metric will be compared and if it exceeds by 15% then it gets
one point. Why 15%? At 10% difference, I consider this noise. At 20%, I believe it is better. So I split
the difference.
SPY Results
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Trend-Following Plus Momentum in ETFs – Alvarez Quant Trading 13.12.2019, 18:52
Here we have three of the metrics beat buy and hold. Even the CAR and RAR values are good for the
combined method. This is probably the ETF that this idea has most been tested on so I would expect
good results here.
Best ETF
Only one ETF, DBC, beat buy and hold on all metrics. I was surprised that it was this ETF.
The CAR and MDD still suck though but at least they are not as bad as buy and hold.
Worst ETFs
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Trend-Following Plus Momentum in ETFs – Alvarez Quant Trading 13.12.2019, 18:52
Two ETFs, GLD & TLT, did not beat buy and hold on any metrics.
100% Investing
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Trend-Following Plus Momentum in ETFs – Alvarez Quant Trading 13.12.2019, 18:52
Now 4 (DBC, EEM, HYG, SPY) out of 12 ETFs beat buy and hold on three or more metrics. I was
expecting better results on this test.
Spreadsheet
Fill in the form below to get the spreadsheet with lots of additional information. See the results of
all variations from the optimization run. This includes top drawdowns, trade statistics and more.
Results included different lookback periods (2 to 12) and investing (50,75,100) on a signal but never
going on margin.
Final Thoughts
One thing to remember of these results is the small number of trades.
I was expecting much better results with this idea. I thought that there would be more beating buy
and hold. From my previous post, trading just momentum beat buy and hold 7 times. While only 5
beat using the combined strategy.
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Trend-Following Plus Momentum in ETFs – Alvarez Quant Trading 13.12.2019, 18:52
Backtesting platform used: AmiBroker. Data provider: Norgate Data (referral link)
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“… Eventually, I realized t
engineered by Cesar. … H
understand, and that is ve
– Ronen Marom
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