Reliability analysis on fatigue and rutting failures of flexible

pavement with the variation of surrounding atmospheric condition

and mix design of bitumen
Sourav Mitra & Saurav Pal
Department of Civil Engineering, Meghnad Saha Institute of Technology, Kolkata-700150.
Pritam Aitch
Department of Civil Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata-700032.

ABSTRACT: Reliability is defined as the probability that the pavement's traffic load capacity exceeds the cumulative
traffic loading on the pavement during a selected design life. Fatigue and rutting in flexible pavement are serious
mode of failure in high temperature areas including India and may lead to early failure in pavement. Performance of
pavement depend upon various factors such as subgrade support, pavement composition and its thickness, traffic
loading and environmental factors. So, it is evident that reliability is very much affected by variation of selected
temperature range which is shown in this study. The fatigue life decreases with the increase of temperature. It is
noticed that slight changes in volume of air voids and volume of bitumen have huge influence on the fatigue life.
Temperature variation also affect the rutting life significantly which is well proved in this study. The probability of
exceeding the design value is determined and this Reliability is plotted with some parameters.

1. INTRODUCTION to provide satisfactory service to the users throughout

Indian road network of 61 lakh km is second largest in
the world. India and other developing countries have
realized the importance for providing good
transportation facilities. Due to rapid socioeconomic
development and industrialization in India is necessary
to implement modern design techniques from time to
time for smooth and safe network. In India highways are
predominantly constructed using bituminous materials.
During last decade significant studies were carried for
better characterization of bituminous mixes in order to
build long lasting pavements. IRC-37-2012 incorporate
some of the new and alternate materials in the current
design practice wherefrom a designer can use sound
engineering judgment consistent with local environment
using mechanistic approach for design of pavement.
Fatigue occurs when a material is subjected to repeated
loading and subsequent unloading. Fatigue is usually1.
associated with tensile stresses but fatigue cracks have
been reported due to compressive loads. Rutting in
pavement is a serious mode of distress beside fatigue
in bituminous pavement in high temperature areas
including India and may lead to premature failure in
pavements and results in early and costly rehabilitation.
The fatigue and rutting performances are very much
uncertain due to many uncertainties related with
pavement life parameters and traffic condition.
Premature distress and associated problems in
pavement result in an economic burden on tax payer.
Hence, these problems needs to be properly addressed
through evaluation and mitigation measures so that the
occurrence and resulting impacts are minimized.
In a context of systematic analysis of highway
pavement systems the concept of Reliability as a
design tool is of utmost importance. Reliability is a
measure of the probability that a pavement is expected
its design service life. Other advantages of using
reliability analysis include the calibration of new design
methods, developing rational design specifications,
optimizing resources, and assessing the damage and
serviceability for the remaining life of the pavement.
In this paper the predicted pavement life is considered
as strain and stiffness function of bituminous pavement,
which is related to surrounding temperature and
environment. Since the temperature is variable, it
follows that the pavement life would also exhibit
variable nature. The Reliability may then be interpreted
as a probability of the pavement structure exceeding
some level of predicted pavement life. Therefore,
incorporation of Reliability in the analysis of behavior of
flexible pavement is the focus of this paper.
2. DEFINITION OF RELIABILITY
The concept of reliability could be used to quantify the
uncertainty associated with design predictions. The
application of reliability in pavement design is to
quantify the probability that a pavement structure will
perform, as intended, for the duration of its design life.
Reliability analysis allows for a rational accounting of
the variability in the design parameters. Kulkarni (1994)
defined reliability in terms of traffic:
"To provide uniformity, pavement design reliability
is defined as the probability that the pavement's traffic
load capacity exceeds the cumulative traffic loading on
the pavement during a selected design life."
The above statement may be expressed mathematically
as:
𝑅 = 𝑃[𝑁 > 𝑛] [1]

1

Where "N" is the traffic load capacity of the pavement
structure and "n" is the actual number of load
applications. Specifically, reliability is the probability that
the number of allowable traffic loads exceeds the
number of applied traffic loads.
3. FATIGUE &RUTTING FAILURE AS PER IRC-
37:2012
3.1 Fatigue life
With every load repetition, the tensile strain developed
at the bottom of the bituminous layer develops micro
cracks, which go on widening and expanding till the
load repetitions are large enough for the cracks to
propagate to the surface over an area of the surface
that is unacceptable from the point of view of longterm
serviceability of the pavement. The phenomenon is
called fatigue (or fracture) of the bituminous layer and
the number of load repetitions in terms of standard
axles that cause fatigue denotes the fatigue life of the
pavement.
Figure 1 Different Layers of a Flexible Pavement
As per IRC: 37-2012 a flexible pavement is modeled as
an elastic multilayer structure. Tensile strain, εt, at the
bottom of the bituminous layer which causes fatigue
failure and the vertical subgrade strain, εv, on the top of
the subgrade which causes rutting failure which is
shown in figure 1. According to IRC 37:2012 fatigue life
is calculated from the equation given below,
1 3.89 1 0.854
𝑁𝑓 = 0.5161 × 𝐶 × 10−04 × [ ] ×[ ] [2]
𝜀𝑡 𝑀𝑅
Where
𝐶 = 10𝑀 [3]
𝑉𝐵
𝑀 = 4.84 [(𝑉 − 0.69] [4]
𝐴 +𝑉𝐵 )
Nf = Fatigue life in number of standard axles,
εt = Maximum Tensile strain at the bottom of the
bituminous layer, and
MR = resilient modulus of the bituminous layer.
VA= Volume of Air voids in mix (in percentage)
VB= Volume of bitumen in mix (in percentage)
Equation 2 is recommended for use for traffic
greater than 30 msa where richer bituminous mixes with
stiffer VG 40 binder should be used. Volume of stiffer
grade bitumen is possible to be increased by slightly
opening the grading. The Indian Roads Congress (IRC-
37:2012) recommends that the designer should
consider these aspects with a view to achieving a high
fatigue life of bituminous mixes.
3.2 Rutting life
According to Indian Roads Congress (IRC -37:2012)
Rutting is the permanent deformation in pavement
usually occurring longitudinally along the wheel path.
Rutting may partly be caused by deformation in the
subgrade and in other non-bituminous layers causing
the overlying layers to take a deformed shape.
Like the fatigue model, rutting model also studies at 80
per cent and 90 per cent reliability levels. The two
equations are given below respectively:
1 4.5337
𝑁𝑅 = 4.1656 × 10−08 [ ] [5]
𝜀𝑣
1 4.5337
𝑁𝑅 = 1.41 × 10−08 [ ] [6]
𝜀𝑣
Where,
NR = rutting life in number of standard axles, and
εv = Vertical strain in the subgrade
The model considers the vertical strain in subgrade as
the only variable for rutting, which is a measure of
bearing capacity of the subgrade.
4. Details of mechanistic Empirical method of design
The method used in data analysis is mechanistic
empirical method. IITPAVE software has been used for
the computation of stresses and strains in flexible
pavements. In this approach, the pavement is idealized
as a layered elastic structure consisting of three to four
layers made up of bituminous surfacing, base, sub-base
and the subgrade. Each layer is characterized by its
resilient modulus (MR), Poisson’s ratio (υ) and
thickness. All the reliability computations in this design
methodology have been performed using the computer
program. The detailed procedures are listed below,
Step-1: CBR Value
In real life CBR value is taken from soil
investigation report but in this case any real life
example has not been considered and 3%, 6%, and 9%
CBR values are taken for design purpose.
Step-2: Temperature
Five temperatures(20ºC, 25ºC, 30ºC, 35ºC,
and 40ºC) as data and five cumulative standard axle
load values (50, 75,100,125 and 150 msa) are taken
into account for this study.
2
Step-3: Layer thickness of air voids (VA) is used as 4% and volume of bitumen
The purpose of M-E flexible pavement design (VB) is used as 12.5%. Rutting variability is most
is to determine the thickness of each pavement layer to affected by the stiffness of the subgrade material and
withstand the traffic and environmental conditions the thicknesses of the overlying materials. By applying
during the design period. Design thickness of BC, DBM, Monte Carlo Simulation fatigue life and rutting life
Base, Sub-base and Subgrade are calculated using values are calculated for different temperature, different
design catalogue given in IRC: 37-2012 CBR value and different msa.
Step-4: Resilient Modulus Step-8: Reliability calculation
Resilient Modulus of different grades of According to the definition of reliability the number of
Bitumen varies with temperature drastically, which is times fatigue life or rutting life exceeds the design value
given in Table 1. VG-40 bitumen is used in this paper (msa value) that is termed as Reliability of the
for bituminous layer. pavement at a particular temperature. So, Fatigue and
rutting Reliability of a particular pavement can be found
Table-1 Resilient Modulus of VG 40 bitumen mix, MPa out for different temperature conditions, allowing
for different temperature different limits of thickness. Finally the probability of
exceeding the design value is determined.
20°C 25°C 30°C 35°C 40°C
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 5. RESULTS

Resilient modulus (MR)for granular sub-base and base
is given by the following equation
𝑀𝑅 = 0.2ℎ0.45 × 𝑀𝑅 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒 [7]
The relation between resilient modulus and the effective
CBR is given as:
Reliability value is calculated for fatigue and rutting
deformation for flexible pavement by use of IITPAVE
software which helps in the calculation of the tensile
strain at the bottom of the bituminous layer and the
compressive strain at the top of the subgrade soil.
These computed strains are incorporated in the fatigue
models and rutting models to estimate the pavement life
for different temperatures. Results are discussed below.
5.1 Fatigue Reliability for different temperatures

MR (MPa) = 10 × CBR for CBR≤5 [8] Fatigue life (in standard axles) is determined from
Equation 2 for specified numbers of cycles (10,000
= 17.6 × (CBR) 0.64 for CBR > 5 [9] numbers of Monte Carlo cycles). The number of times,
the fatigue life (in msa) exceeds the design life (in msa)
expressed in percentage, is numerically defined as
Step-5: Poisson’s Ratio Reliability.
Poisson’s Ratio is different for different layers of At 20°C and 25°C for different msa values (50msa,
pavement, according to IRC 37:2012 the Poisson’s 75msa, 100msa, 125msa and 150msa)fatigue reliability
Ratio is given below in table 2. comes as 100%.
It is noticed that fatigue reliability is decreased when
Table-2 Poisson's ratio for different layers temperature value increased, for 30ºC temperature
fatigue Reliability value is less than 50% and for 35ºC &
Layer Poisson's ratio 40ºC it remains zero. For different msa values fatigue
Reliability value reduces drastically.
Bituminous layer 0.35(for temperature up
to 35°C) For 3%, 6% & 9% CBR and different msa values fatigue
0.50(higher Reliability values are taken and plotted below
temperature)
Above three figures (figure 2, figure 3 and
Granular base and sub 0.35 figure 4) show fatigue Reliability variation for different
base temperature and CBR values. It shows nearly same
Subgrade layer 0.40 results for these msa values. It is observed from figure
2, figure 3 and figure 4 for temperature of 20ºC and
25ºC the reliability value is 100% but when temperature
Step-6: Strain is 35ºC and 40ºC Reliability value becomes zero. The
Tensile strain, εt and vertical subgrade strain, εv are properties of the bituminous mixtures used in flexible
calculated from IITPAVE software. A satisfactory pavement are greatly influenced by environmental
pavement design can be achieved through iterative temperature.
process by varying layer thickness (±5 mm here). In this
study Monte Carlo Simulation is used for Reliability
analysis. The number of Monte Carlo cycles is used in
design is 10,000.
Step-7: Fatigue and rutting life calculation
As discussed earlier, IRC 37:2012 has introduced a
fatigue model equation (Equation 2) and a rutting model
equation (Equation 6). For fatigue life calculation
bituminous mix design value is important. Here volume

3
 RELIABILITY(3%,6% & 9% CBR,50msa) Rutting Life (3% & 6% CBR,50 msa)

120 RELIABILITY
(3%CBR) 4000 RELIABILITY(
100 3%CBR)
RELIABILITY 3500
RELIABILITY (in %)

RUTTING LIFE (in msa)

80 (6%CBR) 3000 RELIABILITY(
RELIABILITY 6%CBR)
60 2500
(9%CBR)
40 2000
1500
20
1000
0
500
0 10 20 30 40 50
TEMPERATURE (in Degrees) 0
Figure. 2 Variation of Reliability with Temperature for 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
msa value
TEMPERATURE (in degrees)

Figure 5 Variation of Rutting life with Temperature for

RELIABILITY(3%,6% &9% CBR,100 msa) 50 msa value
120
RELIABILITY Rutting Reliability value is also calculated for five
100 (3% CBR) different temperatures (20ºC, 25ºC, 30ºC, 35ºC, and
40ºC) and 3% CBR and 6% CBR value. It can be seen
RELIABILITY
RELIABILITY (in %)

from figure 5that rutting life is very much greater than

80 (6% CBR) the considered MSA value (50 msa, 100 msa and 150
RELIABILITY msa) and it is also decreased when temperature is
60 increased. Rutting failure is mostly depended upon the
(9% CBR)
stiffness of the subgrade material and the thicknesses
40 of the overlying materials. So from above result it can
be seen that for perfectly compacted subgrade rutting is
20 not a major criterion for the selected temperature range.

0 6. DISCUSSIONS
0 10 20 30 40 50 It is shown that the fatigue life decreases with the
TEMPERATURE (in Degrees) increase of temperature. Fatigue life can be increased
by changing the mix design value. Mix design can be
Figure. 3 Variation of Reliability with Temperature for reformed by changing the values of Volume of Air Voids
100 msa value (VA)and Volume of Bitumen (VB) which is shown in
Table 3. Specified range of VA is 3-5% in India. In this
study, 90% reliability is considered to be good fatigue
RELIABILITY(3%,6% & 9% CBR,150msa) reliability for all important roads.

RELIABILITY(3 Table: 3 Recommended Values of volume air voids (VA)

120 % CBR) and volume of bitumen (VB) for 90% to 100% Reliability
100 RELIABILITY(6
% CBR) CBR 20ºC & 25°C 30ºC 35ºC 40ºC
RELIABILITY (in %)

80 RELIABILITY(9
% CBR) 3% VA= 4% VA=3.5% VA=3% VA=3%
60
VB= 12.5% VB=13.5% VB=14% VB=17%
40 6% VA= 4% VA=3.5% VA=3% VA=3%

20 VB= 12.5% VB=13.5% VB=14% VB=17%

9% VA= 4% VA=3.5% VA=3% VA=3%
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 VB= 12.5% VB=13.5% VB=14% VB=17%
TEMPERATURE (in Degrees)
Table 3 shows that slight changes in volume of
Figure. 4 Variation of Reliability with Temperature for air voids (VA) and volume of bitumen (VB) have huge
150 msa value influence on the fatigue life. For example if bitumen
5.3 Rutting Reliability content is increased from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent

4
above the optimum bitumen content obtained by
Marshall Test and air void is reduced to the minimum
acceptable level of 3 per cent and volume of bitumen
increased to the level of 17 per cent, the fatigue life also
increased which means that low air voids and higher
bitumen content is necessary for the bituminous layer to
obtain fatigue resistant mix. Mix design is the key factor
to enhance the fatigue life.
The rutting failure also affected with
temperature and moisture condition, higher temperature
leads to cause more rutting. If rutting failure occurs it is
not possible to change the subgrade layer frequently so
rutting life should be much higher than the considered
design life to avoid early failure. However Rutting is
dependent on strength of the subgrade, but for perfectly
compacted subgrade, rutting is not found to be a major
criterion for the selected temperature range.
7. CONCLUSIONS
Based upon the research findings presented in this
report, the following conclusions and recommendations
may be made:
1. Monte Carlo simulation is an effective mean of
incorporating reliability analysis into the M-E design
process for flexible pavements. For most practical
design methodologies, the number of Monte Carlo
cycles should be set at minimum 5,000 which were set
at 10,000 in this study for better result.
2. The input parameters having the greatest influence
on the fatigue performance variability are bituminous
modulus and thickness.
3. Temperature variation also affects the rutting life.
However rutting is dependent on subgrade strength of
the soil, but for perfectly compacted subgrade, rutting is
not found to be a major criterion for selected
temperature range.
4. Indian maps are advised to split into some
temperature zones for flexible pavement design as
temperature variation can affect reliability analysis
drastically. So it is recommended that design catalogue
should have been different for different temperature
zones.
It is difficult to make firm recommendations
regarding acceptable levels of design reliability until the
design procedure is applied on a wider basis. The
recommendations made by AASHTO may be used as
points of reference. However, the designer must
ultimately make the decision based upon the available
study results on design practices. One of the
fundamental principles of M-E design is that it must be
calibrated to local conditions. Further investigations and
calibration are required to fine-tune the design
procedure.
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