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    13 views1,008 pages

    文字BUSINESS DYNAMICS PDF

    Uploaded by

    Laura Celis

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    ty,I stanb ul);Mi c ha el
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    Co mpa ny);La u r
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    plng er,Cha rl
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    ve s,Jane tCo ul dWi lki ns o n,
    JimHi ne s,Na nLux, Br adMo rriso n, TimNuge nt, Ne ls onRe pe nnl ng, EdRo be rts,
    Sc o ttRoc ka rt,Ge org eRo th,EdSc he in,Pe terSe ng e( MI T) ;Al lena ndJ ane
    Boo rstein;St e veCa va leri( Ce nt ralCo nne c ticutSt ateUni v･);Ge o ffCo yl e( Ro ya l
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    f ord) ;
    Pa lDa vids en( Uni v.o fBe rge n) ;J im Doyl e,Mi keRa dz icki ,Kha lidSa eed
    (Wo rce sterPo l
    yt echn icl nstitute );Bo bEbe rle i
    n,To m Fi dda ma n,Da nGol d ne r,
    Da vidPe terson, La ur aPe terson( Ve ntanaSys tems );Da vidFo le ya ndJ udyBe rk;
    And yFo rd( Wa s hing tonSt a teUni v. );Da vi dFor d( Te xa sA&M Uni ve rs i
    ty) ;
    Na t
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    (Ho me rCons ulti
    ng ) ;J odyHo us e( Or e gonGr ad ua teI nstit
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    Er ikMos ekilde( Te chn ic alUni v･o fDe nma rk) ;Da ni elKi m,Vi rgini aWi ley
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    Kr a hme rKe ating( Nor thwe ste rnUni v .);DonKl einmun tz( Uni v .o fI llino is,
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    Mo recro ft,An nva nAc ke re,Ki n Wa r ren( Lo ndo nBus ine ssSc hoo l);Er ling
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    xi
    i Pr
    efa
    ce

    (Un iv .ofSou thernMa ine); LyleWa lli


    s( De cisi
    o,Inc.); J
    imWa ters(Wa tersBus i
    -
    nes sSys tems); JasonWi t
    tenberg( Ha rvardUn iv.
    );EricWo l
    stenholme( Lee °sBus
    一 i
    mes sSc hoo l
    , UK) ; PavelZa mudi oRa mi rez( Mo ni
    torCo mpany) ; t
    heCo pe nhagen
    Bus ine ssSc hoo l,Thel nternationa lNe two rko fRe so urcel nforma tionCe nter
    s
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    o nGr oup) ,Mc Ki ns eya ndCo mpany ,theNo rwe gianSc hoolof
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    Ma na gement.
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    ialtha nkst oHi ghPe rfわrma nceSys tems,Po wersi
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    ial
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    Tha n ks,Cind y,Da vid, andSa rah.
    Pr
    efae
    e v
    ii
    PARTI PERSPECTI VEANDPROCESS 1
    1 Lear
    n1ngl nanda boutCompl exSys t
    ems 3
    1.
    1 1 ntroducti
    o n 3
    1.1.1 Pol ic
    yRe sistanc e,theLa wo fUnintende dCons e
    quenc
    es,
    andt heCount erintuiti
    v eBe havi
    oro fSoc i
    alSyst
    ems 5
    1.1.2 Causeso fPol icyRe s i
    stanc e 10
    l.1.3 Fe edbac k 1 2
    1.1.4 Pr ocessPoi nt .
    ･TheMe aningo fFe edbac k 1 4
    CI l
    all
    e nge:Dyna mi c so fMul ti
    ple -
    Loo pSys tems 1 4
    12 Le
    . ar
    nlngl saFe e dba ckPr oc ess 1 4
    1.
    3 Ba rr
    ierstoLe aml ng 1 9
    1.3.1 Dynami cCompl exi y 21
    t
    1.3.2 Limi t
    edI nfor mat ion 2 3
    1.3.3 Confou ndi ngV ariablesandAmbi guiy 25
    t
    1.3.4 Bounde dRat ionaliyandt
    t heMispe rceptions
    ofFe edb ac k 26
    13. 5 Flawe dCognl tiveMa ps 28
    1.3.6 Er yme ou sInf erenc esaboutDynami cs 29
    1.3.7 Unscient l
    ficRe asoni ng/Judgme ntalEr rors
    andBi as es 30
    Cha ll
    e nge:Hypo the sisTe sting 30
    1.3.8 De fensiv eRout inesandI nt e
    rpersonalI mpe di
    ments
    toLe arnl ng 32
    1.3.9 Impl eme nt ationFai lure 33
    1.
    4 Re qul
    re mentSforSuc ce ssfulLe arnlngi nCo mp lexSys t
    ems 33
    1.4.1 Impr ovlngt heLe ar mngPr ocess:Virtues
    ofT r
    l
    'rt
    u alWor lds 3 4
    1.4.2 Pitfall
    so fⅥr tualT Yorlds 35
    1.4.3 Wh ySi mul ationI sEs senti
    al 37
    1.
    5 Su mma ry 3 9
    xd
    l
    ii
    XJ
    V Cont
    ent
    s

    2 Syst
    emDyna ic
    m sinAe tion 41
    2･1 Appl icationsofSys temDy nami cs 41
    2.
    2 Aut omo bi leLe a singSt rategy: Go neTo da y
    ,He reTomorrow 42
    2.2. 1 Dy na mi cHy pot hesis 44
    22. 2 Ela bor at l
    n gt heMo del 48
    2.2. 3 Pol icyAnal ys is 51
    2.2.4 Impac tandFol l
    ow- up 5 4
    2.
    3 0nTi mea ndUnde rBudge t:TheDy nami cs
    o fPro jectMa na ge me nt 55
    23. 1 TheCl ai m 56
    2.3. 2 Initial Mode l De velopme nt 5 7
    23. 3 Dynami cHy pot hesis 58
    2.3.4 TheMo de lingPr oce ss 61
    2.3.5 Cont inui ngI mpac t6 4
    2.
    4 Pl aylngt heMa int ena nc eGa me 66
    2.4. 1 Dynami cHy pot hesis 6 7
    2.4.2 TheI mpl e me ntationChal lenge 74
    2.4.3 Re sul t
    s 76
    2.4.4 Trans f er ringt heLe ar ning:TheLi maEx per
    ience 77
    2,
    5 Summa ry: Princ ipl esf orSuc cessfulUs eo fSystemDyna mics 79
    3 TheMode l
    ingPr oc ess 8 3
    3.
    1 ThePu rpos eo fMode li
    ng: Ma na gersa sOr ganizati
    onDe s
    igne
    rs 84
    3.
    2 Th eCl i
    e nta ndt heMode ler8 4
    3.
    3 St epsoft heMode lingPr ocess 8 5
    3.
    4 Mo delingl sl t
    e ra tive 8 7
    3.
    5 0ve r
    v iewoft heMode lingPr oc ess 8 9
    3.5. 1 Probl emAr ticulationITheI mpor t
    anc eofPur
    po se 89
    3.5.2 For mul at ingaDyn ami cHy pot hesi
    s 9 4
    3.5.3 For mul at lngaSi mul ati
    onMo del1 02
    3.5.4 Testlng 1 03
    3.5.5 Pol i
    c yDe s ignan dEv aluation 1 03
    3.
    6 Su mma ry 1 0 4
    4 St
    ructureandBe havi oro fDyna mi eSys もems 1 0 7
    4.
    1 Fu nda me nt alMode sofDyna mi cBe ha vio r 108
    4.1 .1 Expo ne nt ialGr owt h 1 08
    4.i.2 Go alSe ek ing 1 1 1
    4.1 .
    3 0s cillat ion 1 14
    4.1 .
    4 Proc e ssPoi nt 1 16
    Cha llenge:I de ntif yingFe edba ckSt ructu re
    fromSys te mBe ha vi or 1 17
    4.
    2 I nteractio nsoft heFunda me ntalMo de s 1 1
    8
    4.2. 1 S-Sh ape dGr o wth 1 18
    4.2.2 S-Sh ape dGT 1
    0Wt hwi t
    hOv e rs
    hoot 1 21
    Cha 土
    lenge:I de nt ifyi ngt heLi mi tstoGr owt h 1 21
    42. 3 0v ers hootandCol l
    a pse 1 23
    4.
    3 0t herMod eso fBe ha v ior 1 27
    4.3.1 St asis ,orEqui l
    ibrium 1 27
    Co
    nte
    nts X
    V

    4.
    3.2 Randomne
    ss 1
    27
    4.
    3.3 Chaos 129
    4.
    4 Summar
    y 1 33
    PARTII TOOLSFORSYSTEMSTHI NKI NG 1 35
    5 Call
    SalLo opDi a grams 1 37
    5.
    1 Ca usalDi a gramNo tation 1 37
    2 Gu
    5. idelinesf orCa usa lLoo pDi agr ams 1 41
    5.2.1 Caus at i
    onv e rsusCor r
    e l
    ation 1 41
    5.2,2 L abel ingLi nkPol ariy 1
    t 42
    Cha l
    leng e: Ass igningLi nkPol arit
    ies 1 43
    5.2.3 De termi ningLoo pPol ar i
    y 1
    t 43
    Cha l
    lenge :I dent i
    fyingLi nka ndLoo pPo l
    ari
    ty 1 45
    CIla l
    lenge :Empl oye eMot i
    va t
    ion 1 47
    5.2.4 NameY ourLoo ps 1 48
    5.2.5 I ndicat eImpor tantDe laysinCaus alLJ
    inks 1 50
    5.2.6 Variabl eName s 1 52
    5.2.7 Tl'
    psf orCaus alLoo pDi agramLa you t 153
    5.2.8 Choos etheRi ghtLe velofAggr egati
    on 1 54
    5.2.9 Don' tPut Al ltheLoo psi nt
    oOneLar geDi agr
    am 1 54
    52. 10 Mak et heGoal so fNe gat iv
    eL J
    OOPSExplicit1 55
    5.2.11 Di s
    tmgui shbe twe enAc tual
    andPe rceivedCondi t
    ions 1 56
    5.
    3 Pr oc es
    sPo int:De velo plngCa us a
    lDi ag
    rams
    fr
    o mI nte r
    v iewDa ta 1 5 7
    Chall enge :Pr oc essI mpr ove me nt 1 58
    4 Co
    5. ncept ualizat
    io nCa s eSt udy: Ma na gl
    ngYo urWo rkloa
    d 1 59
    5.
    4. 1 Pr obl emDe finiti
    on 1 59
    5.
    4. 2 I dent的7 ingKe yV ariables 1 60
    5･
    4･
    3 De v el
    opl:
    ngt heRe fer enceMode 1 60
    5.
    4.
    4 De v el
    oplngt heCaus alDi agrams 1 63
    5.
    4,
    5 Li mitati
    onso ftheCaus alDi agram 1 66
    Chall
    enge:Po lic
    yAna lysiswi thCa usalDiag r
    ams 1 68
    5.
    5 AdamSmi t h'slnvisibleHa nda ndt he
    Fee
    dba c
    kSt r
    uc t
    ureo fMa rkets 1 69
    Chall
    enge :TheOi lCr i
    s esoft he1 970S 1 72
    Chall
    enge :Spe culativeBubbl e s 1 73
    Cha
    llenge :TheTho roug hbre dHo rseMa rket1 7 4
    5.
    5.1 Mar ketFai lure, Adver seSe lect
    ion,
    andt heDe at hS piral 1 74
    Cha
    llenge: TheMe diga pDe athSpi ra
    l1 76
    5･
    6 Expl
    aini
    ngPo l
    icyRe sistance:Tr afficCo ngestio
    n 1 77
    5.
    6.1 Me nt
    al Mode lso ftheTr a
    j fi
    cPy 1
    0blem 1 78
    5.
    6.
    2 Compe ns atingFe edbac k:TheRe sponse
    toDe crease dConge s ton 1
    i 81
    63
    5. TheMas sTr ans itDe athS pi r
    al 1 85
    5.
    6.
    4 Pol ic
    yAnal ys is
    :TheI mpac tofT echnology 1 88
    5.
    6.
    5 Compe ns atingFe edbac k:TheSour ce
    ofPol i
    cyRe sist
    anc e 1 89
    XVl Con
    ten
    ts

    Chal lenge:I de ntif yingt heFe e dba ckSt ructure


    ofPol i
    c yRes istanc e 1 90
    5･
    7 Summa ry 1 90
    6 Stoe
    ksandFl ows 1 91
    6.1 St ocks,Fl ows ,andAc cumul ation 1 91
    6.1.1 Di agr ammi ngNot at ionf o rSt ocksan dFl ows 1 92
    6.1.2 Mat hemat ical Re pr ese ntationo fSt ocksandFl ows 1 93
    6.1.3 TheCo nt r
    ibut io no fSt ock stoDyna mics 1 95
    6･
    2 I dentif
    yingSt oc ksa ndFl ows 1 97
    6.2.1 Uni tso fMe as ur ei nSt ockan dFl owNe tworks 1 98
    6.2.2 TheSna ps hotT est1 99
    Chal le
    nge:I de ntifyingSt oc ksa ndFl ows 201
    6.2.3 Cons e7Wat io no fMat e rialin
    Stoc kandFl o wNe twor ks 201
    6.2.4 Stat e-De te
    r mi ne dS ys tems 2 02
    6.2.5 Au xi l
    iafTV ar iabl es 202
    6.2.6 Sto cksChan geOnl yt hrou ghThe irRat es 204
    6.2.7 Co nt i
    nu ousT l
    'mean dI n st
    a ntane ousFl ows 206
    6.2.8 Co nt i
    nuou s l
    yDi visibl ev ers usQu anti
    ze dFlows 207
    6.2.9 Whi chMo de lingAp pr o achS hou l
    dY ouUs e? 208
    6.2.10 Py 10C eSSPoi nt :Por tra yin gSt ocksa ndFl o
    ws
    inPr ac tice 2 09
    6.
    3 Ma ppingSt oc ksa ndFl ows 21 0
    6.3.1 Whe nShoul dCau sal Lo opDi agr amsShow
    Sto ckandFl owSt ru ctu re? 21 0
    Chal l
    enge:Addi ngSt oc ka ndFl owSt uc
    r t
    ur e
    toCa usalDi a gra ms 21 1
    Cha1 1
    enge:Li nkingSt oc ka ndFl owSt r ucturewi thFeedback 212
    6.3.
    2 Aggr egat ioni nSt oc kan dFl owMa pplng 21 3
    Chal l
    enge:Modi f yingSt ocka ndFl owMa ps 21 3
    Chal l
    enge:Di saggr ega t
    i on 21 4
    6.3.
    3 Gui de line sforAggr egat i
    o n 21 6
    6.3.
    4 Sys temDy na mi csi nAc t
    ion:
    Mo delin gLar ge -
    Sc al eCo n st
    r uctionPr oject
    s 21 8
    63.5 Settingt heMo de l Bou ndaf T:
    "Chal lengl n gt heCl ou ds" 22 2
    6.3.
    6 Sys temDy na mi csi nAc t
    ion.･Au t
    o mobileRe c
    ycli
    ng 225
    6.
    4 Summa ry 229
    7 DynamicsofSt oe ksandFl ows 231
    7.
    1 Re l
    ati
    ons hipbe twe enSt oc ksa ndFl ows 232
    7.1.I StaticandDy nami cEqu i
    libriu m 23 2
    7.1.
    2 Cal cul uswi thout Mat he mat i
    cs 23 2
    7.1.
    3 Gr aphi c alI nte grat ion 23 4
    Challenge:Gr aphi c alInt e gration 239
    7.1.
    4 Gr aphi c alDI Her ent iat i
    o n 23 9
    Challenge:Gr aphi c lDi
    a ffere ntia t
    ion 241
    7･
    2 Sys temDyna mi c si nAc tion: Gl oba lWa r mlng 241
    Con
    tent
    s xvi
    i

    7･
    3 Syst
    emDy nami csi nAc ti
    on: TheWa ro nDr ugs 2 50
    7.
    3 1
    . TheCoc aineEpi demi ca fter1 990 2 58
    7･
    4 Summa ry 26 2
    8 Clos
    ingtheLo op:
    Dynam
    ie sofSimpl eSt ruc tur es 263
    8.
    1 Fi rst-
    Ord erSys t
    ems 263
    8,
    2 Pos i
    ti
    veFe edba cka ndEx pone ntialGr o wth 26 4
    8.
    2.1 Anal ytl
    '
    cSol utionf ort heI /
    ine arFi rs
    t-071
    de rSyst
    em 265
    8.
    2.2 Gra phic al Sol utiono ft heLi ne arFi r
    st-Orde r
    Pos i
    t i
    veFe edb ackS ystem 266
    8.
    2.3 ThePo we ro fPos it
    iveFe edb ac k
    :Dou bli
    n gTl'
    mes 268
    Cha
    lleng e:Pa pe rFo lding 2 68
    8.
    2.4 Mi spe rce ptio nso fEx po ne ntialGr owth 26 9
    8.
    2.5 Proc essPoi nt /Ov e rcomi ngOv erco n
    fidence 272
    8.
    3 Ne gati
    veFe edba cka ndExpo ne ntialDe cay 27 4
    8.
    3.1 Tl'
    meCo ns t
    ant sa ndHal f -
    Li ves 2 79
    Chall
    eng e.
    ･Goa l-Se eki ngBe ha vior 281
    8.
    4 Mu l
    ti
    ple-Lo opSys tems 28 2
    8.
    5 No nli
    nearFi rst-Or de rSys tems :S- Sha pedGr owth 28 5
    Chall
    enge :No nline arBi rtha ndDe athRa t
    es 28 6
    8.
    5.1 For mal De finitiono fLoo pDo mi nance 288
    8.
    5.2 Fi rst107de rS ys t
    e msCannotOs ci
    llate 29 0
    8.
    6 Sum a r
    y 29 0
    PARTIll THEDYNAMI CSOFGROWTH 29 3
    9 S･
    Shape dGr owth:Epi deic
    m s, I
    nnovat ionDi f
    fus i
    on,a ndt heGr owt
    hof
    NewPr oducts 295
    9.
    1 Mo deli
    ngS- Sha pedGr owth 29 6
    9.1.1 Lo glSticGr owt h 296
    9.1.2 Anal yticSol utionoftheLogi sti
    cEqu at
    ion 29 7
    9.1.3 0t he rCo mmonGr owthMo de l
    s 29 9
    9.1A T e
    s ti
    ngt heLogi st
    icMo de l 30 0
    9.
    2 Dy namicsofDi sease: Mode l
    ingEpi demics 3 00
    9. 2.1 ASi mpl eMode lofInfecti
    ou sDisease 3 00
    9. 2.2 Mo delingAc ut eInfect
    ion:TheS IRMod e l3 03
    9.2.3 Mo de lBeh av ior:TheT l'
    ppl ngPoi nt 3 05
    Cha ll
    enge:Ex plor i
    ngt heSI RMod e l3 08
    9.2.
    4 Immu ni z
    at i
    onandt heEr adi cat
    iono fSmal lpox 309
    Cha ll
    enge :TheEf f
    ica cyofI m un iz ati
    onPr ogra
    ms 31 0
    9. 2.
    5 He 71
    dl mmu ni y 31
    t 2
    9. 2.
    6 Mo vingPa stt heTl'
    pplngPoi nt:Ma dCo wDi sease 314
    Cha l1enge:Ext end i
    ngt heSI RMod el 31 6
    9. 2.
    7 Mo delingt heHW/ AIDSEpi demic 31 9
    Cha ll
    enge:Mod e l
    ingHI V/AIDS 3 21
    9.
    3 I nnovati
    onDi ffusiona sI nfec
    tion:
    Mo deli
    ngNe wl dea sa ndNe wPr od uc t
    s 3 23
    93. 1 TheLo gisti
    cMode lofInno vati
    onDl #us i
    o n:
    Ex ampl e
    s 3 25
    xvi
    ii Co
    nte
    nts

    9.3.2 Proc es sPoi nt :Hi stor i


    cal Fi tandMo delV ali
    diy 328
    t
    9.3.3 TheBas sDl Hu sio nMo de l 33 2
    Chal lenge:Pha seSpa c eo ftheBa ssDi ffusi o
    nMod el 333
    9.3.4 Behav ioro ft heBas sMo del 33 4
    Chal lenge:Cr itiqul ngt heBa ssDi ffus i
    onMo de l 33 4
    Cha ll
    e nge:Ext end ingt heBa ssMo del 33 5
    9.3.5 Fada ndFas hi on:
    Mo de lingt heAba ndo nme nto fa nInno vation 33 9
    Cha ll
    e nge:Mod e l
    ingFa ds 3 41
    9.3.6 Repl ac eme ntPur cha se
    s 3 42
    Cha ll
    e mge:Mod e l
    ingt heLi feCyc leo fDu r a
    bl eProd uct
    s 3 45
    9.4 S umma r
    y 3 46
    1
    0 PathDepe nde nceandPos itiveFe edba ek 349
    10,1 PathDe pendenc e 3 49
    Cha ll
    e nge:Ide nt ifyingPa thDe pe nd enc e 353
    10.2 ASi mpl eMo de lofPa thDe pe nd enc e: ThePo lyaPr ocess 3 54
    10.2.1 Ge ne ralizin gt heMo de l:No nl ine arPol yaPr ocesses 3
    57
    10.3 PathDe pendenc ei nt heEc o no my: VHSve rsusBe t
    a max 359
    Cha ll
    e nge:Fo r mul atingaDyna mi cHy po the sis
    fortheVCRI nd us try 3 64
    10.4 Positi
    veFe edba ck: TheEng i
    neo fCo rpo rat
    eGr owth 3 64
    10.4.i Pr oduc tAwar e ne ss 3 65
    10.4.2 Un itDe ve l
    o pme ntCo s
    ts 3 6 7
    10.4.3 Pr iceandPr odu ctio nCo st3 68
    10.4.4 Ne twor kE jfec tsan dCompl eme ntafTGoo ds 3 70
    10.4.5 Pr oduc tDI He re ntiat ion 3 71
    10.4.6 Ne wPr oduc t De ve lopme nt 3 73
    10.4.7 Mar k etPo we r 3 74
    10.4.8 Me r ge rsandAc qul S it
    ions 3 75
    10.4.9 Wor kfor ceQu al iya
    t ndLo yal y
    t 376
    10.4.10 TheCos to fCa pi t
    al 3 78
    10Al 1 TheRul eso ft heGame 38 0
    10.4.12 Ambi tio nandAs pi rations 38 0
    10.4.13 Cr eat ingS y ne rgyf orCor por at eGr owth 38 2
    10.
    5 Pos iti
    veFe e
    dba ck, inc r ea singRe t urns, andEc onomi cGr owth 385
    10.
    6 Do estheEc ono myLoc ki nt oI nferiorTe chnol ogies? 38 7
    10.
    7 Li mitst oLoc kl n 38 9
    10.8 Mod elingPa t
    hDe pe nde nc ea ndSt a nda rdsFo rma ti
    on 391
    10.8.1 Mo de lSt ruc tur e 3 9 2
    10.8.2 Mo de lBe hav i
    or 3 96
    10.8.3 Pol icyI mpl ic atio ns 402
    Cha ll
    enge:Pol ic yAna lys IS 403
    Challenge:Ext e ndi ngt heMo de l 40 4
    10.
    9 Summa ry 406
    PARTIV TOOLSFORMODELI NGDYNAMI
    CSYSTEMS 407
    ll Del
    ays 409
    11
    .1 Delays
    :Anl
    ntr
    oduc
    tion 409
    Co
    nte
    nts XI
    X

    Cha l
    leng e:Dur ationa ndDy na mic sofDe lays 409
    1 1
    .1 .
    1 De finin gDe lay s 41 1
    112 Ma
    . teri
    a lDe lays : Struc tur ea ndBe ha vior 41 2
    1 .
    12.1 What Ist heAv erageLe ngtho ft heDe l
    a y? 41 3
    11･2･2 What lst heDi stribut io
    no ft heOu tput aroundtheAverage
    De l
    a yT l
    '
    me? 41 3
    1 1
    .2.3 Pi pe lineDe lay 41 5
    11.2.4 Fi rst107 de rMat er i
    al De lay 41 5
    11.2.5 Hi ghe r- Orde rMat erialDe lay s 41 7
    11.2.6 HowMu c hl si nt heDe l
    a y?Li ttle'
    sLaw 421
    Chall enge:Re s
    po nseofMa terialDe layst o
    Steps,Ra mps ,andCyc le s 425
    11.
    3 I nforma ti
    o nDe lays : Struc tur ea ndBe ha vior 426
    11.3.1 Mo del i
    ngPe rc ept ions :Ada ptlVeEx pectati
    onsa nd
    Ex pone ntialSmoot hing 428
    11.3.2 Hi ghe r-Or de rI nfor mat i
    o nDe lays 432
    11.
    4 Re sponset oVa riabl eDe la yTi me s 43 4
    Cha l
    lenge:Re s
    po nseofDe l
    a yst oCha ngingDe layTi mes 43 5
    11.4.1 Nonl i
    ne arAd ju stme ntT l'
    me s:
    Mo del i
    n gRat c he tE jfects 43 6
    11･
    5 Es timatlngt heDur a t
    io na ndDi st
    ributiono fDe lays 43 7
    11.5.1 Es timat ingDe la ysV V henNu me rical Data
    Ar eAv ailabl e 43 7
    11.5.2 Es ti
    mat lngDe la ysWhe nNu me ricalDat a
    Ar eNot Av ailabl e 445
    11.5.3 Pr oce ssPoi nt :1砺‡ lkt heLi ne 4 49
    11.
    6 Sys temDyna mic si nAc tio n:
    Fore c
    astlngSe mi c ond uc to rDe ma nd 4 49
    11･
    7 Ma thema ticsofDe l
    a ys :Koyc kLa gsa ndEr l
    a ngDi str
    ibuti
    ons 462
    11.7.1 Ge ne ralFor mul ationf orDe lays 46 2
    11.7.2 Fi r st-
    OT l
    de rDe la y 46 4
    11.7.3 Hi ghe r-Or de rDe lay s 46 5
    11.7.4 Re lationo fMat er i
    alandI n
    f ormat ionDe l
    a y
    s 466
    11.
    8 Su mma ry 466
    1
    2 CofL
    owsa ndAg ingCha ins 469
    12.
    1 Ag ingCha i
    ns 470
    12.1.1 Ge ne ralSt ruc tur eo fAgi ngCh ai ns 47 0
    12.1.2 Exa mpl e:Po pul at ionandI n
    f rastruc t
    ureinUr ban
    Dyna mi c s 472
    12.1.3 Exampl e:ThePo pul ati
    onPyr ami dan dt heDe mogra
    phic
    Trans ition 474
    12.1.4 Agi ngChai nsandPo pulationl ne rt
    ia 48 0
    12.1.5 S ys t
    e mDyn ami c si nAc t
    ion:
    WTor l
    dPo pul ationandEc ono micDe v
    elopme nt 481
    12.1.6 Cas eSt udy/
    Gr 1
    0Wt handt heAgeSt ructureo fOr ganizati
    ons 48 5
    12.1.7 Pr o mot i
    o nCh ainsandt heLe arnmgCu y
    ve 49 0
    X
    X Cont
    ent
    s

    1 2.1.8 Me nt or lngandOn- The -JobTr ai


    nlng 493
    CI lallenge:TheI nte rac t
    ionso fTr ainingDe l
    aysa ndGr owth 495
    12.
    2 Cof lows :Mo de lingt heAt tribut esofaSt ock 497
    Cha ll enge:Co lows 5
    f 03
    1 2.2.1 Co jl owswi thNonc ons e rvedFl ows 504
    CI lallenge:TheDy na mic sofEx pe riencea ndLe arnlng 5 08
    1 2.2.2 I ntegr at ingCo j l
    owsandAgi ngChai ns 509
    Cha llenge:Mo de lingDe sig nWi nsint he
    Se mi co nductorl ndus t
    r y 51 1
    12･
    3 Summa ry 51 1
    13 Mo de
    lingDe cisi
    onMa ki ng 51 3
    13.
    1 Pr inciplesforMo de lingDe cisio nMa king 51 3
    1 3.1.1 De cisionsandDe c isionRul es 51 4
    1 3.1.2 Fi veFor mul at
    ionFundame ntals 51 6
    Cha ll enge:Fi ndi ngFo rmul a t
    io nFl aws 520
    13.
    2 Fo rmul at
    ingRa teEqua ti
    o ns 5 22
    1 3.2.1 Fr ac tionalI ncre as eRat e 522
    1 3.2.2 Fr ac tionalDe cre as eRat e 523
    1 3.2.3 Ad jus tme ntt oaGoal 523
    1 3.2.
    4 TheSt oc kManage me ntSt ruc t
    ure:
    Rate- Nor mal Rat e+Ad j ustments 524
    1 3.2.5 Fl ow-Re sourc e* Pr oduc t
    iviy 524
    t
    1 3.2.6 Y- Yj -*EHe ctofXIOnY*E He c fX20nY*.
    to ..*EHe
    ct
    ofXnonY 525
    1 3. 7 Y- YS
    2. +E He c tofXIOnY+E j
    fectofX20nY+･ ･.
    +
    EHe cto fXn onY 527
    Cha互 lenge:Mul tipleNo nline arEfe cts 5 29
    13. 2.8 Fu z zyMI NFu nc tion 529
    13. 2.
    9 Fuz zyMAXFu nc ti
    o n 530
    13 .2.10 Fl oat ingGoal s 532
    Chal lenge:Fl o atingGoa ls 533
    Chal l enge:Goa lFo rma t
    io nwi thI nterna landExt ernalIn
    puts 535
    13. 2.ll Nonl ine arWe i
    ght edAv erage 535
    13. 2.12 Mode lingSe arc h:Hi l
    l-Cl i
    mbi ngOpt imi zat
    ion 537
    Chai l enge:Fi ndi ngt heOpt ima lMi xo fCa pit
    ala ndLa bor5 43
    13. 2.13 Re sour ceAl location 544
    13.
    3 Co mmo nPi t
    falls 5 45
    13. 3.1 Al l0ut jlowsRe qui reFi rst
    -Or derCont rol 545
    Cha l
    le nge:Pr eve ntingNe ga tiveSt ocks 5 47
    13. 3.
    2 Av oidI F...T HEN...ELSEFor mulations 547
    13. 3.
    3 Di saggr e gat eNe tFl ows 547
    1 4 Su
    3･ mma ry 5 49
    14 Formulat i
    ngNo nli
    ne arRe lat i
    ons hi ps 551
    14.
    1 Ta bleFunc t
    ions 552
    14. 1.
    1 S pec l
    jyi ngT ableFu nc t
    ions 552
    14. I.
    2 Exampl e/Bui l
    dingaNonl inearFunc tion 552
    Cont
    ent
    s XXl

    1
    4.I
    .3ProcessPoint
    :T abl
    eFunc t
    ionsver
    sus
    Anal
    yt i
    cFu nct
    ions 562
    1
    4.2 Cas
    eStudy:Cutti
    ngCo rnersvers
    usOve rt
    ime 563
    Chall
    enge:Fo
    m ul
    r at
    ingNo nli
    nearFuncti
    ons 566
    14.
    2.1 Wor kingOv ert
    ime:
    TheEj f
    ectofSchedulePres
    s ur
    eonTVor
    kwee
    k 567
    14.
    2.
    2 Cut t
    ingCor ners:
    TheEHe ctofSc he dulePr essu誓onTi mepe rTas k 568
    14.
    3 Ca seSt udy: Es tima t
    ingNo nlinearFunc tionsWithQua l
    itati
    veand
    Nume ricalDa t
    a 56 9
    Challenge :Re f iningTa bl eFunc t
    ionswi thQua li
    tat
    iveDa ta 569
    14.
    4 Co mmo nPi tfalls 573
    14.
    4.1 Us ingt heWr ongl nput 5 73
    Cha l
    lenge .
    ACr itiqulngNonl i
    ne arFunc t
    io ns 575
    14.
    4.2 I mpr ope rNor mal i
    zation 576
    14.
    4.3 Av oidHump- Sha pe dFunc ti
    ons 577
    CIl
    a l
    lenge:Fo rmul at
    ingt heEr rorRa t
    e 58 3
    Cha l
    lenge :Te stingt heFullMo del 58 5
    14.
    5 El i
    cit
    ingMode lRe l
    ati
    ons hipsl nterac t
    ive ly 58 5
    14.
    5.1 Cas eSt udy:Es timat i
    ngPr ecede nceRe l
    ati
    ons hipsin
    Pr oduc tDe velopme nt 58 7
    14.
    6 Su mma ry 595
    1
    5 ModelngHl
    i lma nBe havi or:Bo unde dRa ti
    o nalityor
    Rati
    onalExpe c
    ta tions ? 597
    15.
    1 Hu ma nDe c isionMa king: Bo und edRa tionalit
    yo r
    Rat
    iona lEx pe cta t
    ions? 5 98
    15.
    2 Co gnitiveLi mi tations 599
    15.
    3 hd ividua la ndOr ganiza ti
    o na lRe spo nse sto
    Bounde dRa tio na l
    ity 6 01
    153.1 Habi t,Rout i
    ne s,andRul esofThu mb 601
    15.
    3.2 Managi ngAt te ntion 601
    15.
    3.3 GoalFor mationandSat i
    sficing 601
    153.4 Pr obl emDe compos it
    ionandDe centr
    ali
    zed
    De c i
    s ionMak i
    ng 602
    15.
    4 ⅠntendedRa tiona l
    ity 6 03
    15.
    4.1 T es ti
    ngf orInt ende dRat ional iy:Par
    t ti
    alMode lTest
    s 605
    15.
    5 Ca seSt udy: Mode li
    ngHi g h-Te chGr owt hFi rms 6 05
    15.
    5.1 Mode lSt r
    uctur e:Ov enノi
    e w 606
    15.
    5.2 0r derFul fil
    lme nt 607
    15.
    5.3 Ca pac iyAc
    t qui s iti
    on 609
    Challenge:Hi llCl imbi ng 61 5
    15.
    5.4 TheSal esFor c e 61 5
    15.
    5.5 TheMar ket 61 9
    15.
    5.6 Be hav ioro ftheFul lS ystem 621
    Chailenge:Pol ic yDe sig ni nt heMa rke tGr owthMo del 62 4
    15.
    6 Summa r y 629
    x
    xji Cont
    ent
    s

    1
    6 Forec
    ast sandFudgeFa ctors
    :Mode li
    ngExpe ct
    ati
    onFor
    mat
    ion 6
    31
    16.
    1 Mode l
    ingEx pe ct
    ati
    onFo rma t
    ion 631
    1 6.1.
    1 Mo deli
    ngGr owt hExpectati
    ons:
    TheT RENDFu nct
    ion 63 4
    1 6.1.
    2 Be hav i
    oroftheT RENDFu nct
    ion 638
    16.
    2 Ca seStudy: Ene r
    gyCo nsu mptl
    On 638
    16.
    3 Ca seStudy: Co mmod it
    yPr ic
    es6 43
    16.
    4 Ca s
    eStudy: Inla
    f ti
    on 6 45
    16.
    5 I mpl ic
    a t
    ionsforFo r
    ecastCo nsume rs 655
    Cbal lenge:Ex tr
    apolat
    iona ndStabili
    ty 656
    16.
    6 I nitia
    lizat
    iona ndSteadySt at
    eRe sponseof
    theTRENDFunc tio
    n 6 58
    16.
    7 Su mma ry 6 60
    PARTV I NSTABI LITYANDOSCI LLATI ON 661
    17 Suppl
    yChainsandt heOr i
    g i
    no fOs cil
    lations 66 3
    17.
    1 Su pplyCha insi nBus i
    ne ssa ndBe yond 66 4
    17.1.
    1 0s c ill
    at i
    on ,Ampl i
    f i
    cat i
    o n,andPhas eLJ
    a g 6 64
    17.
    2 TheSt oc kMa na geme ntPr oblem 666
    17.
    2.1 Man agl n gaSt oc kISt r
    uc ture 668
    17.
    2.2 St ead ySt ateEr ror 6 71
    17.
    2.3 Man agi n gaSt oc kIBe hav ior 6 72
    Challenge:Ex plorlngAmpl ificati
    on 674
    17.
    3 TheSt oc kMa na geme ntSt ructure 6 75
    17.
    3.1 Be ha v i
    oro ftheSt oc kMana ge me ntStr
    uc t
    ure 68 0
    Challenge;Ex ploringt heSt ockMa na geme ntStructure 683
    17.
    4 TheOr igi
    no fOs c i
    llations 68 4
    17.
    4.1 Mi s mana glngt heSu pplyLi ne I
    TheBe e rDi stributionGa me 68 4
    17.
    4.2 Wh yDoI V eIgnor et heSu ppl yLi ne? 69 5
    17.
    4.3 Ca seSt ud y:Bo omandBu s tinRe alEstateMar ket
    s 6
    98
    Challenge:Ex pand ingt heRe a lEs t
    a t
    eMo del7 07
    17.
    5 Summa r
    y 7 07
    18 TheManuf actur
    ingSuppl yChai n 709
    18.
    1 ThePo li
    cySt ruc t
    u reo fl nvent orya ndPr oduc t
    ion 71 0
    18.1
    .1 07 de rFu l
    f il
    lme nt 71 1
    18.1
    .2 Pr oduc t i
    on 71 3
    18.1
    ,3 Pr oduc t i
    onSt arts 71 4
    18.1
    .4 De mandFor ecas t
    ing 71 6
    18.1
    .5 Pr oc essPoi ntIInitializl
    n gaMo de linEqui l
    ibr
    ium 716
    Challenge:Si mul tane ousI nitialCo ndi tions 71 8
    18.
    1.6 Be ha v i
    oro ft hePr odu ctionMode l 72 0
    18.1
    .7 Enr i
    c hi
    ngt heMo del: Addi ngOy derBac klogs 723
    18.
    1.8 Be hav i
    oro ft heFi rmwi thOy derBac kl
    o gs 725
    18.
    1.9 Addi ngRawMat er i
    alsl nv entoYy 725
    18.
    2 Interac
    tionsa mongSu ppl yCha inPa r
    tne rs 729
    18.
    2.I I nstabi lit
    ya ndT rustinSu ppl yChai ns 735
    Co
    nte
    nts x
    xii
    i

    8.
    1 2.
    2 FromFunc tionalSi lost oI ntegr atedSu pplyChai n
    Manage me nt 7 40
    Chall enge:Re engl nee rlngt heSu ppl yCha in 7 41
    18.
    3 Sys temDyna mi c sinAc tion: Re eng lne erlngt heSuppl yCha ini
    na
    Hi gh- VelocityI nd ustr
    y 7 43
    1 8.
    3. 1 I niti
    alP7 1
    0ble mDe finition 743
    1 8.
    3. 2 Re fe renc eModeandDynami cHy pothesis 746
    1 8.
    3. 3 Mode lFor mul ation 749
    1 8.
    3 .
    4 T estingt heMode l 749
    1 8.
    3. 5 Pol i
    cyAnal ys IS 751
    1 8.
    3. 6 I mpl eme nt
    at ion:Se que nt ialDe bot t
    lenecking 753
    1 8.
    3.7 Re sults 755
    18.
    4 Summa r
    y 755
    19 TheLabo rSuppl yCha ina ndt heOr ig inofBus inessCyc l
    es 75 7
    19.
    1 TheLa borSuppl yCha in 758
    19.1 .1 St ruc t
    ur eofLaborandHi ring 758
    19.I .
    2 Be havi oroft heLaborSu ppl yChai n 760
    19.
    2 I ntera cti
    onsofLa bo ra ndl nve nto ryMa na geme nt 76 4
    Cha llenge:Me nt alSimul ationo f
    lnve nto r
    yMa na ge me ntwi thLa bo r 76 6
    19.2. 1 I nvent o77-TY or kfor c
    eI nter actions :Be havi
    or 766
    19.2.2 Pr oc essPoi nt :Ex plai nlngMode lBehavior 767
    Cha llenge:Ex pla i
    nlngOs cill
    atio ns 76 7
    19.2.3 Unde rstandingt heSour ceso fOs cil
    lation 771
    Cha llemge:Po l
    ic yDe sig nt oEnha nc eSt abi l
    it
    y 773
    19.2.4 Addi ngOv e rtime 774
    19.2.5 Re spons etoFl exibleWor k we eks 776
    Cha l
    l enge:Re engl neerl ngaMa nuf a cturingFi rm
    forEnha nce dSt abi li
    ty 778
    19.2.6 TheCos tsofl nstabi ly 7
    i
    t 79
    Cba l
    l enge:TheCos tso fl ns tability 78 0
    CI l
    a l
    l enge: Addi ngTr ai ninga ndEx pe rienc e 78 0
    19.
    3 I nvent o r
    y-Wo rkf orceI nt erac t
    ionsa ndt heBus i
    ne ssCyc le 782
    19.3. 1 I st heBu si
    ne ssCyc leDe ad? 785
    19｡
    4 Summa r
    y 788
    20 Thelnv
    is ibleHandSo me t
    ime sSha ke s:Co mmodi tyCyc le
    s 791
    20･
    1 Commodi t
    yCyc les:Fr omAi r
    c r
    a fttoZi nc 792
    20.
    2 AGe nericCo mmodi tyMa rketMod e 1 798
    20.2. 1 Pr oduc ti
    onandI nv entoT y 8 01
    20.2.2 Ca paci y Ut
    t ilizat i
    on 802
    20.2.3 Py 1
    0duc ti
    onCa pac iy 8
    t 05
    20.2.4 De siredCa pac iy
    t 8 07
    Cha lle nge:Int ende dRa tiona l
    ityo ftheI nve st
    me ntPr ocess 810
    20.2.5 De mand 81 1
    20.2.6 ThePr ice-Se ttingPr oc e ss 81 3
    20.
    3 App lica t
    ion: Cyc le sint hePul pa ndPa perl ndus t
    ry 8 24
    Cl l
    alle nge:Se ns iti
    vltyt OUnc e rtaintyi nPa rame ter
    s 8 28
    X
    XrV Co
    nte
    nts

    Chal
    lenge:Sensi
    tivl
    tyt
    OStruct
    uralChanges 831
    Chal
    lenge:Implementl
    ngStuc
    r t
    uralChange
    sI
    Model
    ingLivest
    ockMa rket
    s 8 36
    Chal
    lenge:Poli
    cyAna l
    ysI
    S 8 40
    20.
    4 Summa r
    y 8 4l
    PARTVI MODELTESTI NG 843
    21 7hlt
    handBe aut
    y:Validationa ndMode lTest
    ing 845
    21.
    1 Validat
    ionandVe rif
    icati
    onAr eI
    mpos s
    ibl
    e 8 46
    21.
    2 Que st
    ionsMod e
    lUs e
    r sShoul
    dAs k-ButUs ual
    lyDo
    nうー8
    51
    21.
    3 Pragma ti
    csandPol i
    ti
    c sofModelUs e 851
    21
    .3.1 T y
    peso fDat a 8 53
    21
    .3.2 Doc ume nt
    at i
    on 8 55
    21
    .3.3 Re pl
    icabili
    y 8
    t 55
    21･
    3･4 Pr ot
    ectiv ev.
    ersu sRe jlect
    iveMo del
    ing 8
    58
    21.
    4 Mo delTes
    tinginPr act
    lCe 8 58
    21.
    4.1 Bou nda7TAde qu acyT est
    s 8 61
    21A.2 St ructureAs ses sme ntT es
    ts 8 63
    21.
    4.3 Di mens ionalCon si
    stency 8 66
    21.
    4.4 Par ame terAs se ssme nt 866
    21.
    4.5 Ext r
    emeCo nditio nT est
    s 8 69
    Cha
    ll enge:ExtremeCo ndi ti
    o nTe s
    ts 8 71
    21.
    4.6 I ntegrationEr r orT ests 8 72
    21.
    4.7 Be haviorRe pr odu c t
    ionTests 8 74
    21.
    4.8 Be haviorAno mal yT e s
    ts 88 0
    21.
    4.9 Fa milyMe mbe rT ess 881
    t
    21.
    4.10 Su r
    pr i
    seBe hav iorT ests 882
    21.
    4.ll Se ns i
    ti
    v iyAnal
    t ys i
    s 883
    21.
    4.12 S ys t
    emI mpro veme ntTest
    s 88 7
    Cha l
    lenge
    :Mo de lTesting 88 9
    21
    .5 Summa ry 8 9
    0
    PARTVII COMMENCEMENT 89 3
    22 Chall
    engesfort heFut ure 895
    22.
    1 The ory 8 95
    22.
    2 Te chnolo gy 8 96
    22.
    3 I mpleme nt at
    ion 8 99
    22.
    4 Ed ucation 9 00
    22.
    5 Appl ications 901
    Challenge:Put t
    ingSyst
    emDyna mi
    csi
    ntoAc
    tio
    n 9
    01
    APPENDIXA NUMERI CALI NTEGRATI ON 903
    Challeng e:Choos ingaTimeSte
    p 910
    APPENDIXB NOI SE 91 3
    Challeng e:Ex plor
    lngNoise 922
    REFERENCES 9 25
    INDEX 947
    Dyna mi c sofMu lt
    ipl e-Loo pSys t
    e ms 1 4
    Hy pothe sisTe s
    tl
    ng 3 0
    Identi
    fy ingFe edba c kSt ructur ef romSys temBe havi
    or 11
    7
    Identi
    fy ingt heLi mi tst oGr owt h 1 22
    Ass i
    gni ngLi nkPo lar i
    ties 1 43
    Identi
    fyi ngLi nka ndLoo pPo la ri
    ty 1 45
    Emp loye eMo tivation 1 47
    Processl mpr ove me n t 1 58
    PolicyAna lys iswi thCa us a
    lDi a grams 1 68
    TheOi lCr i
    s e softhe1 970s 1 72
    Spe c
    ul ativeBub ble s 1 73
    TheTho roug hbredHo r s
    eMa rke t 1 74
    TheMe diga pDe athSpi ral 1 76
    Identi
    fy ingt heFe ed ba ckSt ruc tureo fPol
    icyRe si
    sta
    nce 190
    Identi
    fy ingSt ocksa ndFl o ws 2 01
    Add i
    ngSt oc ka ndFl owSt mc tur etoCa usalDia
    g r
    ams 21l
    LinkingSt oc ka ndFl owSt ruc t
    ur ewi thFeedback 21 2
    Mod ifyingSt oc ka ndFl owMa ps 21 3
    Disagg rega tio n 21 4
    Graphi call nt eg r
    atio n 239
    Graphi calDi fe r
    ent iation 2 4l
    PaperFol ding 268
    Goa l
    -Se eki ngBe ha vior 281
    Nonline arBi r t
    ha ndDe at
    hRa te s 28 6
    Exploringt heSI RMode l3 08
    TheEf fic acyofl mmuni za t
    ionPr og r
    a ms 31 0
    Extendingt heSI RMode 1 31 6
    Mo delingHI V/ AI DS 321
    PhaseSpa ceoft heBa ssDi 軌l SionMo del 333
    Cri
    tiqulngt heBa ssDi 軌I SionMode l3 34
    Extendingt heBa ssMode l 33 5
    Mod elingFa ds 3 41

    X
    XV
    XXVl Li
    sto
    fCha
    lle
    nges

    Mode l
    ingt heLi feCyc l
    eo fDu rablePr oduc t
    s 3 45
    Ident if
    yi ngPa thDe p e nd en ce 3 53
    Fo m ul atlngaDyna mi cHy po thesisf ort heVCRI ndust
    ry 36 4
    Po l
    ic yAna lysIS 403
    Ex t
    e ndi ngt heMo de l 40 4
    Dur ationa ndDyna mi c so fDe lays 409
    Re spons eofMa teria lDe layst oSt e
    ps , Ra mps, andCyc les 425
    Re spons eofDe la
    yst oCha ng i
    ngDe layTi me s 43 5
    Thei nte ra ctio
    nso fTr a inin gDe laysa ndGr owth 495
    Coflows 5 03
    TheDyna mi cso fEx pe rien cea ndLe a rnlng 5 08
    Mo de lingDe si
    gnWi nsi nt heSe mic onduc torlnd ust
    ry 51 1
    Find ingFo rmul a t
    io nFl a ws 52 0
    Mul tipl eNo nli
    ne arEf fects 529
    Floa t
    ingGoa l
    s 533
    Goa lFo r ma tionwi thl nt ema la ndExt e rnallnputs 53 5
    Findi ngt heOpt ima lMi xo fCa pitala ndLa bor5 43
    Preve nt lngNe ga t
    iveSt oc ks 5 47
    Formul a tingNo nline arFunc tions 566
    Re f
    ini ngTa bleFunc tio nswi h Qua
    t litativeDa ta 569
    Critiqui ngNo nline a rFunc tions 5 75
    Formul a tingt heEr ro rRa te 583
    Testingt heFu llMo de l 58 5
    HillCl i mbi ng 61 5
    PolicyDe signi nt heMa rke tGr o wthMode l6 24
    Extra po latio na ndSt a bility 656
    Expl oringAmpl if
    ic atio n 6 74
    Expl oringt heSt oc kMa na geme ntSt ruc t
    ure 683
    Expa nd ingt heRe a lEs ta t
    eMo de l 707
    Simul ta ne ousl ni t
    ia lCo ndi tions 71 8
    Reeng lne erlngt heSu ppl yCha in 7 41
    Me nta lSi mul ationoHn ve ntoryMa na geme ntwi thLa bor 766
    Expl aini ngOs cill
    atio ns 76 7
    PolicyDe signt oEnha nc eSt abi li
    ty 7 73
    Reeng lne erlngaMa nuf a cturlngFi r
    mf orEnha nc edStabi
    li
    ty 778
    TheCos t sofl ns tabi li
    ty 78 0
    Add ingTr ainlnga n dEx pe rience 78 0
    Int
    ende dRa tiona l
    ityo ft hel nve st
    me ntPr o
    ce s
    s 81 0
    Sensitivl tyt OUnc e rta intyi nPa rame t
    e rs 8 28
    Sensitivl tyt OSt ruc tur alCha nge s 8 31
    Imple me nt i
    ngSt ruc tu ralCha nge s
    -Mode li
    ngLi ve s
    tockMa r
    kets 8
    36
    PolicyAna lysIS 8 40
    ExtremeCond i
    tionTe sts 8 71
    Mode lTe sting 88 9
    Putt
    ingSys te mDy na mi c sI ntoAc ti
    o n 901
    Choos l
    ngaTi meSt ep 91 0
    Explo rlngNoi s e 92 2
    ● ●
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    ber
    tBur
    ns

    An
    ythi
    ngt
    hatc
    angowr
    on l
    gwilgowr
    ong.
    一日
    Mur
    phyM

    t
    Vehav
    eme
    tthee
    nemyan
    dhei
    sus
    ｡
    -Pogo
    FromThoma sMo rei
    n1 516t oPo goi nthemi d20thcenturyithaslongbe enac -

    knowl e
    dgedthatpe opl
    eseek i
    ngt os olveaproblemof t
    enma keitwo rs
    e･Ou rpoli
    -
    ci
    e smayc r
    eateuna nt
    icI
    Pat
    e dsidee fe ct
    s･Ouratt
    emptstos t
    abil
    izethesyst
    emma y
    destabi
    li
    zeit
    .Ourd ec
    isi
    onsma yprov okereact
    ionsbyo t
    hersseekingtorest
    orethe
    balanceweups e
    t .Forres
    ter(1 971a)c all
    ssuchphe nomenat he… c
    ounteri
    ntuit
    ive
    behaviorofsoci
    als yst
    ems .
    HThe seu nexpect
    edd ynamicsoftenleadtopolicyre-
    si
    stance,t
    hetende ncyforinterventionstobede laye
    d,dilut
    ed,orde feat
    edbyt he
    res
    po nseoft
    hesys temtothei nterventionit
    sel
    f(Me adows1 982)･
    6 P
    art
    IPe
    rs
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    FLGUREl･l
    Pdicyress
    i an
    t ce:
    Roma ni
    anbir
    th

    (
    aJ
    at
    r es

    do
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    d oooLJJt2^
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    th
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    1966
    U

    19661967196819691970197119711994
    1994
    1966
    1971
    D
    ght(1971)
    ri
    andW
    avld
    ;1971
    S
    R
    -
    ource:
    earb
    anSl ook1995
    calY
    I'
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    /'
    at
    omani
    ,,
    100
    1971
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    101
    areannual
    pp averages
    N
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    ot
    .
    l

    Asa ne xampl e,cons ide rthebi rt


    hr ateinRoma niai nthel ate1 960S ｡Thec rude
    birthr ate( bir t
    hspe ryea rpe r1 000pe ople )wa se xtreme lyl ow-a bout1 5pe r
    thous and( Figur e1 -
    1 ).Forva riousr ea sons,inc l
    ud i
    ngna tiona lpr idea nde thnic
    ide ntity,t hel owbi rthr atewa sc onsi de redtobeagr avepr obl em byt hegove rn-
    me nt, i
    nc ludi ngt hedi c t
    atorNi col auCe ausesgu.TheCe a
    us esgur egimer esponde d
    byi mpos l ngpol ic i
    esdes igne dt os t
    imul atethebi rt
    hr a t
    e.Ⅰ mpor tationofc onta r -

    ce ptivede vi ce swa so utlawe d; pr opaga ndac ampa l


    gnSe xtoll
    ingt hevi rtuesofl arge
    fami lie
    sa ndt hepa t
    riotic( ma trioticwoul dbemor ea ccura t
    e )dut yt oha vemor e
    chi ldrenwe rei ntroduc ed,a longwi ths omemode sttaxi ncent ivesf わrl arge rf ami-
    lies .Pe rha psmos timpor tant,a bortion-f re el
    ya va i
    lableonde ma nds inc e1 957
    throught hes tatehea lthc ares ys t
    em-wa sba nnedi nOc tobe r1 966( Da vida nd
    Wr ight1 971 ).
    Ther es ultwa simme diatea nddr a ma t
    ic.Thebi rthr ater os es harplyt one a r
    ly
    40pe r1 000pe ryea r,rivalingt hos eoft hef ast
    estgrowl ngna tions ･Thepol i
    c ya p-
    pe are dtobeas ens at
    iona ls ucc es s.Howe ver,wi t
    hinmont hst hebi r t
    hr atebe gant o
    fall.Byt hee ndof1 970,onl y4yea rsa ft
    erthepol icywa simpl e me nted,thebi r
    th
    rateha ddr oppe dbe low20pe rt hous a nd,c losetot helowl e ve lss e
    e npr iort Ot he
    inte rventi on. Thought hepol i
    cyc ontinue dinf orce,thebi rt
    hr atec ontinue dt of all,
    rea ching1 6pe rt hous andby1 989 -a boutt hes a
    mel owr a
    tet ha tl edtot hei mpo -

    sitionoft hepol icy. Wha tha ppe ne d?


    Thes ys temr esponde dt ot hei nterve ntioni nwa yst her e glmedi dnota ntici
    -
    pa te. Thepe opleofRoma niaf oundwa ysa roundt hepol icy. The ypr acticeda lter -

    na ti
    veme thodsofbi rthc ont rol. The ys muggl edc ontrac e
    ptlVepi llsa ndde vic esin
    from ot he rc ount ries.De spe ratewome ns oughta ndf oundba c k-alleya bor tions .
    Ma nyoft he sewe reuns ani t
    a r
    yorbot c he d,leadingt oane artripl i
    ngofde athsdue
    Ch
    apt
    er1 Le
    arn
    lngl
    nan
    dab
    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 7

    toc ompl ica tionsofa bor ti


    onf rom 1 965t o1 967.Mos tho rr i
    bl y,t henumbe rof
    ne ona talde a thsr os ebymor et ha n300%be twe e n1 966a nd1 967,a20%i nc rea se
    int hei nf a ntmo rtal ityr a te( Da vida ndWr ight1 971 )･Ther es ult :thepol icywa s
    re nde r edc ompl e t
    e l
    yi ne ffec tivea lmos ti mme dia telya fteri mpl eme nt ation.
    Butt heuna ntic IPa tedc ons e que nc esdi dn' te ndwi tht hef ailur eoft hepo pu-
    la t
    ionpol ic y･ Th epe opl eofRoma ni a,a mongt hepoor es ti nEu rope ,we r eha vi ng
    sma llf ami liesb eca us et heyc oul dn' ta for dl ar ge rones .Chi ldc arewa suna va i1-
    a blef ors ome. Ma nyot he rsl ive dwi tht he ire xte nde df a mi liesi ns ma ll ,c rowde d
    apa rtme nt s ･J obswe r es c arce;i nc omewa sl ow･ Ma nype o plega vec hildr en血e y
    c oul dn' ts uppor tt os tate -
    unor
    r pha na ges . Thegove rnme nt 'spol ic ydi dn' tpr eve nt
    thepe opl eofRo ma ni af romc ont rol li
    ngt he i
    rownf ertil
    ity, buti tdi dbr ee di nte ns e
    res ent me nta ga l
    nS tt hei ntrus ivepol ic iesoft her e glme. In1 989,whe nt heBe r lin
    wa llf ella ndt het ot a litarianr e gimesOfEa s t
    ernEur o pet o ppl e d, Roma niawa st he
    onl yna tionwhe r et heve lvetr e vol utionwa svi ol ent .Theha tedCe a us ese ua ndhi s
    equa llyha te dwi fewe r es umma r ilye xe cute dbyf iri
    ngs qua d. The irbl oodybodi e s
    we rel e氏i nt hec our tya rdof血epr e si
    de ntialpa lac ewhi let hes c enewa sbr oadca st
    onna tiona lt e l
    ev ision.Thel awba nnl nga bor tionwa sthef irstove rturne dbyt he
    ne wgove rnme nt.Thebi rthr a te,alr ea dyl ow,f ellfur the r.Byt hemi d1 990S ,t he
    popul a t
    iono fRo ma niawa sa c tua llyde c l
    ini nga sbi rthsdr o ppe dbe lowde aths .
    Thec hi ldr enofRoma nias uf fere dt hemos tf romt hepopul ationpol icy. Dur ing
    theye arsoft hepo pul ationpol icyt hous andsofc hildrenwe r epl ace di nt hec areof
    sta t
    eor pha na ges,whe ret heywe reke ptl i
    kea ni ma l
    si nc ribs( c ages ,re ally)wi th-
    outa t
    t entiont obas icne eds ,muc hl es st hel ove山a tallofusne eda ndde serve.
    Foodwa ss os c a
    r cet ha tbl oodt rans fus ionswe rer outine l
    ygl Ve na Snut ritiona ls up-
    pl eme nts ･Be caus ene edl eswe reus edr epe atedl y,a ne pi de mi cofAI DSs pre ad
    rapi dlya mongt hec hildr en･ Thes idee fe ct soft hef a i
    ledpopul ationpol ic yc as ta
    sha dowont heh ea ltha ndha ppi nes sOfa ne ntirena tion,as ha dows tr et
    c hi ngove r
    ge ne ra t
    ions .
    Pol ic yr e sistanc ei snotl imi te dt odi ctator s.Itdoe sn' tres pe ctna tiona lbor de rs,
    pol iticali de ol og y,o rhi storica le poc h･ Co ns ide rt heUSgove rnme nt 'sf i
    ghta ga lnS t
    infla tioni nt hee arly1 970S . Fi gur el 12s howst heCons ume rPr ic eI nde x( CPI )f or
    theUni te dSt a t
    esbe twe e n1 968a nd1 976. Int hee ar
    ly1 970si nf
    la tionha da ccele r-
    ate da ndt heNi xona dmi nistra tionf elta ctionha dt obet a ke n. Thoug haRe publ i-
    ca n, Ni xonc hos et oi mpl e me ntwa gea ndpr lCeC Ont r
    OI s.Thepol icywa se x pens ive:
    Ane wf ede ra lbu rea uc ra cy,t heCounc ilonWa gea ndPr ic eSt abi lity ,wa sc rea ted
    toove rse et hec ont rol sa nde nf or c ec ompl ianc e.Wa gea ndpr lCec ont rol swer e
    ie
    v we dbyma nyi nNi xon' sownpa rya
    t sve rgi ngOns oc ia lism,c os tlngNi xon
    va lua blepol iticalca pi tal.Atf irst, thepol ic ys ee me dtowo rk, althoughi mpe rfec tly.
    Dur ings o-c a lledPha seIoft hec ont rol s, t
    her ateofi nfla tionf ellbya boutha lf.The
    admi ni strati onde ci de dt hec ont rolsc oul dber e laxe d. I
    nPha s eI I, Pr e si
    de ntFor d
    (whoi nhe rite dt hepr ogr amf r om Ni xon)l aunc he daj awboni ngc ampa ign,com-
    ple tewi thc ampa lgn- Styl ebut tonsl abe ledH WI N! りf orH Whi pI nfla t
    ionNow! =･
    Fe wobs erve rse xpe cte dWI N. fbut tonst oha vea nye ffec t,a ndmos tf elti nfla ion
    t
    wo ldr
    u e tur nt oitsr a tepnort ot hes ta rtofc ont rol s.Ins tea d, inna tiona c tua ll
    ya c-
    ce l
    e ratedunt il,by1 975, theCPIha dr e tur
    ne dtot het rajec toryl tWa sOnPr iort Ot he
    impos i
    tionoft hepr ic eC Ont rOI s. Les st ha n4yea rsa ftert hei nt erve nt iont he rewas
    8 Pa
    rtI Pe
    rsp
    ect
    ivea
    ndPr
    oce
    ss

    FI
    GUREi-
    2 Pol
    i
    cyr
    esi
    st
    ancei
    nthef
    igh
    tagal
    nsti
    nfl
    ati
    on
    TheUSConsumerPr
    icel
    ndex(
    CPI
    )showi
    ngt
    heNi
    xon
    /For
    dwageandpr
    ice
    cont
    rol
    s

    (
    ooL = e9
    5
    0
    6
    L

    4
    0
    d
    )
    d3

    1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

    nor esidueofbe 臥 Ot
    ne here xamplesofpol
    icyresi
    stanc
    eca nbefoundnearl
    y
    everyda yinthenewspaper
    ･Ta bleilll
    ist
    safew1
    2
    Ma chi
    avell
    i,akeenobserverofhumansys
    tems,disc
    ussedpol
    icyres
    ist
    anc
    ea t
    length,Obser
    vingintheDiscoursest
    hat
    Whe napr oble
    ma ri
    seseihe
    t rfr omwi thi
    nar epubl
    icorouts
    ideit
    , Onebrought
    aboute i
    the
    rbyi nt
    e r
    nalo rexter nalre
    asons,Onethathasbecomes ogrea
    tthati
    t
    beginstoma keeveryonea fraid, t
    hesafestpoli
    cylStOdela
    yd ea
    lingwithitrat
    her
    thantryi
    ngtodoa waywi thit, becausethosewhotrytodoa waywi thi
    talmost
    alwaysincreas
    ei t
    sstrengtha nda c
    celer
    atetheharmwhi c
    htheyfe ar
    edmi gh
    tcome
    fromit.(Machiavell
    i1979, pp. 240-241).
    Ifi
    ndMa chiavell
    i'sviewtoocynicalbutc
    ans ympat
    hizewithhisf
    rus
    tra
    tioninob-
    ser
    vinghisclientprinces(t
    heCEOsofRe nais
    sanc
    eItal
    y)t a
    keacti
    onsthatonly
    madetheirproblemswor se･Amor erele
    f ct
    iveviewisoferedbythelat
    ebiologl
    St
    andessa
    yistLe wisThomas( 1974,p.90):
    Whe nyo ua reco nf
    r ont
    e dbya n
    yc o
    mpl e
    xs ocialsyste
    m, sucha sanu rbancent
    eror
    aha mster,wiht
    t hingsa boutitt
    ha tyou'r
    ed is
    satisfi
    edwiha
    t nda nxio
    ust of
    ix,you
    cannotjuststepl na ndsetaboutfixingwithmuc hhopeo fhelpi
    ng. Thisrea
    liza
    tion
    isoneo fthes oredi s
    courageme nt
    so fourcenturyI-Yo uc annotme ddlewithone
    partofac ompl exs yste
    mf r
    omt heo ut
    sidewithou tt
    hea l
    mos tcertai
    nri s
    kofsett
    ing
    offdisa
    strouse ventsthatyo uhadn'tcountedo nino he
    t r,remo t
    epa rt
    s. I
    fyouwa nt
    tofixsome thingyoua refir
    stobli
    g edtounderstand... hewhol
    t es yst
    e mH
    Inter
    venlngl SaWa yOfc ausl
    ngt r
    o ubl
    e.

    2Fu
    rth
    erre
    adi
    ng:JohnMcPh ee(1
    989)o恥rsawo n
    de血l des
    cri
    pt
    ionofpoli
    cyresi
    st
    ancei
    nthe
    r
    ela
    ti
    onshi
    pofpeo
    plewithnat
    u r
    e.McPheebil
    rli
    ant
    lydesc
    ri
    besth
    eunanti
    cI
    Pate
    dsideeff
    ect
    sand
    p
    oli
    cyresi
    st
    anc
    eari
    sin
    gf r
    oma tt
    emptst
    od e
    fea
    tth
    reeel
    ementa
    lfor
    cesofnat
    ure:v
    o l
    can
    ism,f
    loo
    d ,
    a
    ndfir
    e･Edwar
    dTenner(19
    96)a l
    soi
    d e
    nif
    t i
    esmanyexampl
    esofpol
    icyre
    sis
    tan
    ce･
    Cha
    pte
    r1 Le
    armngl
    nan
    daboutCompl
    exSys
    tems 9

    TABLE l l
    l
    "Us eofChe aperDr ugsPushesCos tsUp,NotDown,St udyFi nds:Li miting
    Examplesofpol
    l
    cy whati spr es cr ibed,asmanaged- car es ys temsdo,hasuni nt endedef f
    ec tof
    r
    esist
    ance
    increasi ngc os ts,r esul tsshow"( Headl inej nLA Tl mes,3/
    ' 20/ 96,pl1,r eport-
    1ngUni v,ofUt ahs tudyof1 3, 000pat i
    ent si nvar i
    ousHMOs) .
    "Washi ngt on' sbi gges tconser vat i
    onpr ogr am,whi chpay sf ar mer st ot ak e
    soj lou tofcul ti
    vat ionf oradecadet ocombater osionandhel pt heenvi r
    on
    -

    men t,isawas teofmoney, sos aysanews tudyoft he l


    l lyear -Old
    progr am ..･Forever yer odi ngacr eaf ar meri dles,anot herf ar mer -or
    somet i
    mest hes ameone-si mpJ ypl owsupnear 一
    yasmuchaddi tional
    erosi on- pr one一 and..lE nt heGr eatPl ains, forins tance, far mer ssetasi de
    1 7mi "ionac res, yett het ot a一 cul tivatedl anddr oppedbyonl y2m‖i onacr es"
    (Busi nessWeek,3 /18/96,p.6,r epor t
    ingaUni v.ofMi nnesot as tudy) .
    Lowt arandni cot inecl gar ettesac tuaH yI ncr easei ntak eofcar ci nogens,CO,
    etc.assmok er scompensat ef ort hel owni cotinecont en tbysmoki ngmor e
    clgar etteSPerday,byt aki ngl onger ,mor ef requentdr ags, andbyhol dingt he
    smok ei nt hei rl ungsl onger .
    Ant il
    ockbr ak esandot heraut omot i
    vesaf etydevi cescausesomepeopl et o
    drivemor ea ggr ess iveJy ,Of fset ti
    ngsomeoft heirbenef i
    ts,
    informat iont echnol ogyhasnotenabl edt he" paper l
    es sOf fice"-papercon -

    sumpt ionperc api taisup.


    Roadbui l
    din gpr ogr amsdesi gnedt or educeconges tionhavei ncr easedt raf
    -

    fi
    c,del ays,andpol l
    ution.
    Despi tewi de spr eadus eof一 abor -savl ngaPPl lanCeS, Amer icanshave一 ess
    leisuret odayt han50year sago.
    TheUSgover nmen t
    'swarondr ugs,f ocusl ngOni nt erdjc tionandsuppl ydis-
    rupt i
    on( par ticul ar l
    ycocai nepr oduct i
    oni nSout hAmer i
    ca) ,wi thacos tinthe
    bHi ons,hashadonl yasmal limpactoncocai necul tivat i
    on,Pr oduc tion,or
    smuggl lng.Dr ugusei nAmer icaandel sewher er emai nshi ghr
    TheUSpol fCyOff i
    resuppr essi onhasi ncr easedt hesi zeandsever i
    tyof
    fores tfires.Rat hert hanf requent ,sma"f ires, fir
    esuppr es si onr eadst othe
    ac cumul at i
    onofdeadwoodandot herf uel sl eadi ngt ol ar ger ,hot ter ,and
    mor edanger ousf i
    res,of tenconsum ngt heol des tandl ar ges ttr eeswhi ch
    previousl ysur vi vedsmal l
    erf iresunhar med.
    Floodc ont rdef fortssuchasl eveeanddam cons t ruc ti
    onhavel edt omor e
    sever ef loodsb ypr event i
    ngt henat urar dissi pationofexcesswat eri nf l
    ood
    plains. Thec os toff l
    ooddamagehasi ncr easedast hef loodpl ai nswer ede-
    velopedbyp eopl ewhobel ievedt heywer esaf e.
    lmposl ng200- mi let errit
    or ia川mi tsandquot ast opr ot ec tf i
    shs t
    ock sdi d
    notpr eventt heco‖ apseoft heGeor gesBankf i
    sher yo什t hecoas tofNor t
    h
    Amer ica1On c et hewor l
    d'sr iches t,byt hemi d1990sman yspeci eswer e
    commer ciallyex ti
    nc t,thef i
    sher ywasshutdown, thef leet swer ei dl ed,
    andt he- Oc al ec onomi eswer ei ndepr essi on.
    Der egul ati
    onoft heUSSavi ngsandLoani ndus tr
    y ,desi gnedt osavet he
    indus tryf r
    on lf inanc i
    al pr obl ems,J edt oawaveofspecuf at i
    onf o" owedby
    coH apse,atac os ttot axpayer si nt hehundr edsofbj J
    lionsofdoH ar s.
    An ti
    biot icsha ves timuJ atedt heevol uti
    onofdr ug- resi stantpat hogens,
    i
    ncl udi ngvi rulents trainsofTB,s trep,s taph,andsexua" yt ransmi tted
    diseases.
    Pest
    ici
    desandherbici
    deshavesti
    mulat
    edtheevol
    uti
    onofresi
    stantpest
    s
    andweeds,ki
    Hedoffnatur
    alpr
    edator
    s,andaccumul
    atedupthef oodchai
    n
    t
    opoJSOnfi
    sh,bi
    rds,andpossi
    blyhumans.
    10 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    Buthowcanonec ometounder
    sta
    ndthewhol
    esyst
    em?Ho
    wdoe spol
    icyre
    sis
    -
    t
    anceais
    r e
    ?Howc anwelear
    ntoa vo
    idi
    t,t
    ofi
    ndthehi
    ghl
    eve
    ragepol
    ici
    estha
    t
    ca
    nproduces
    ust
    ainabl
    ebenef
    it?

    iI
    1.2 CausesofPoi
    i
    tCyRest
    -
    Stance
    Onec aus eo fpol i
    c yr e sistanc ei so urte nd enc yt oint erpre tex perienc ea sas er i
    e so f
    eve nts,fo re xa mpl e ," inve nt oryl St oohi gh,"o r"s alesf ellt hismont h."Ac c ount s
    ofwhod i
    dwha tt owhoma rethemos tc o mmo nmod eofd isc our s
    e ,fr omt hema i l -

    roomt ot heboa rdr oo m,f romhe a dline st ohi storyboo ks .Wea ret a ughtf ro ma n
    earlya get ha te ve r
    ye ve ntha sac a use ,whi chi nt umi sa ne f
    f ecto fs omes tille r-
    a
    lie
    rc ause:" Inve nto ryl St oohi g hbe ca uses alesu ne xpe cted l
    yf el
    l .Sa lesf e l
    lbe -

    causet hec ompe titor sl owe re dt he irpr lCe.Thec ompe titorsl owe redt he irpr ic e
    bec ause. ･･"Suc he ve nt-le ve le xpl anatio nsc anbee xtend edi nde finite l
    y,ina nu n-
    broke nAr is totelianc ha ino fc a us esa nde fe cts, untilwea rivea
    r tsomeFi rstCa us e,
    ormo rel i
    ke l
    y ,losei nt er esta lo ngt hewa y .
    Thee ve nt -oriente dwo rldv ie wl eadst oa ne ven Lo rient eda ppr oa cht opr o blem
    solving･ Fi gur e1 -3s howshowweo ftent ryt os o l
    vepr obl ems .Wea ss e
    sst hes ta te
    ofa fa irsa ndc ompa rei t too urgoa ls.Thega pbe twe e nt hes itua ti
    o nwede si
    r ea nd
    thesitua ti
    onwepe rce ivede f
    ine so urpr o ble m･ Fo re xampl e ,suppos es a
    leso fy our
    organi zationwe re$8 0mi llionl astq ua rter, bu tyo urs ale sgoa lwa s$1 00mi l
    lion.
    Thepr oble mi stha ts ale sa re2 0%l e sstha nyo ude sired. Yo ut henc ons i
    derva io
    r us
    optlOnSt Oc or r
    ec tthepr obl em. Yo umi g htc utpr l
    Ce StOS timul atede ma nda ndi n-
    creasema rke tsha re ,r epl ac et hev icepr esidentofs aleswi t hs omeo nemo rea g-
    gressive ,ort akeo the ra c t
    ions .Yo us elec ttheo ptlOnyo ude embe sta ndi mpl e me nt
    it
    ,l eading( yo uho pe )t oabe t
    te rr esult .Yo umi ghto bs e rveyo urs alesi nc reas e:
    problems ol ve d. Ors oi ts ee ms .
    Thes ys temr ea ctst oyours olution: Asyo urs ale sris e,c ompe tit
    or sc utpnc e s,
    ands alesf alla ga in.Ye sterda y' ss olut ionbe c ome st oda y'spr oble m. Wea r eno t
    puppe tma stersinflue nc ingaS yste mOutt he re-wea ree mbe dde di nt hes ystem.
    Thepu ppe tma ster'smove me nt sr espo ndt ot hepos iti
    onoft hema rione t
    teo nt he
    str
    lngS .The reisf ee dba c k: Ther esul t
    so fo ura ctionsde finet hes itua tionwef acei n
    t
    hef uture.Thene ws itua t
    i ona lterso ura ssessme ntoft hepr obl ema ndt hede c i-
    sionswet a ket omor r ow( se et het opo fFi g ure1 -4).
    Po licyr es i
    stanc ea ri s
    e sbe c aus eweo ftend onotu nde rstandt hef u
    llr ang eo f
    feedba ckso per a
    tingi nt hes ys tem( Figur eト4) .Aso ura c ti
    o nsa ltert hes tateo ft he
    system,O the rpe opl er eac tt or e st
    o ret heba l
    anc eweha veups et･Oura ctionsma y
    als
    ot rlgge rS idee ffe c ts.

    GURE l
    FI l 3 Goal
    s
    Ev
    vi
    en
    t
    ewo
    10r
    ft
    J
    l
    en
    h
    ted
    eworl
    d
    i
    i Zg
    Pr em 一一一一｣ト Deci
    obl sion → Resul
    ts
    .//P.
    I
    Si
    tuat
    ion
    Cha
    pte
    r1 Le
    arn
    ingl
    nanda
    boutCo
    mpl
    exSys
    tems ll

    Wef reque ntlyt lka


    a bouts i
    dee fe ctsa si ftheywe reaf eatur eofr ea lity
    . Nots o.
    Inre al
    ity, t
    he rear enos idee fe cts,the rea rej usteHects.Whe nwet akea c ti
    on, he
    t re
    areva riouse fe cts.Thee ffectswet houg h tofi na dvanc e,orwe rebe ne ficial,we
    callthema in,ori ntende de f f
    ec ts
    .Thee fe ctswedi dn'ta ntlC I
    Pa t
    e,t hee fe cts
    whic hf edba cktounde rcutourpol icy ,thee fe ct
    swhi chha me
    r dt hes ys tem-t hes e
    aretheone swec laimt obes idee ff
    e cts, Si dee ff
    e ct
    sarenotaf ea t
    ureofr e
    a l
    itybut
    as i
    g ntha touru n de r
    standi ngo ft hes ys temi sna rr
    owa ndflawe d.
    Una nticipateds idee f
    fe ct
    sa risebe ca usewet ooof tena c
    ta sifc aus ea nde fe ct
    we r
    ea lwa ysc lose l
    yl inke di ntimea nds pa ce.Buti nc ompl exs ystemss uc ha sa n
    urbanc enteroraha ms ter(o rabus i
    ne ss,s oc iety,orecosys t
    em)c ausea nde f
    fec ta
    re
    oftendi stanti ntimea nds pa ce. Na rrowmode lbounda ie
    r sof tenl e a
    dt obe li
    ef stha t
    violatethel awso fphys ic s:inthem i d1 990sCa lifor
    niaandt hea utomobi leindus -
    tryde bate dthei n troduc ti
    onofs oICa l
    ledz eroe missi
    onve hicles( ZEVs )t or educ e
    irpol
    a lution.Tr ue,t heZEVs -e lecticc
    r a
    r s
    -woul dha venot ai
    lpipe.Butt he
    powe rpl a ntsrequi redt oma ket hee le ctrlCltyt Orunthe mdoge ne ratepol l
    ution. In
    reli
    a y,Ca
    t li
    for niawa spr omot l
    ngt hea do ptionofDEVs -di s plac ede mi ss
    ionve
    -
    hicl
    e s-C arswh os ewa s
    t eswoul dbl owdownwi ndt oothe rstatesora cc umul a tein
    nuclea rwa st
    ed umpsout sidei t
    sbor de rs. Elec t
    riccarsma ytur noutt obea ne nvi -
    ronme nt alboonc ompa r e
    dt oint er
    na lc ombus tion.Thet ec
    hnol ogyl Si mpr ovl ng
    rapidly,a ndairpo llutioni sama jorhe althpr oblemi nma nyc ities･Butnomodeof

    FIGURE1-4
    Thefeedbackvi
    ew

    Envi
    ronment

    Ourd
    eci
    si
    onsal
    t
    erouren
    vir
    onmen
    t,l
    eadi
    ngt
    one
    wdec
    isi
    ons,

    Goa･
    s ES
    de
    dc
    e
    ts

    Goalsof
    Other
    Agents

    but
    alsot
    ri
    gger
    lngSi
    deeff
    ects,del
    ayedr
    e ac
    ti
    on s,changes
    i
    ngoal
    sandint
    eⅣen t
    i
    onsbyo t
    hers.Thesefeedb acksmay
    le
    adtounant
    icJ
    Pat
    edresult
    sandinef
    fect
    i
    vep o一i
    ci
    es.
    12 P
    artI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    tr
    ansportore ner
    gyc onver
    sionpr ocessisfreeofe nvi
    ronme nta
    limpa ct
    ,andno
    le
    gisl
    aturecanreea
    p lthesecondl awoft hermodyna mic
    s ･
    3
    Toa voidpolicyresi
    sta
    nc ea ndf indhighleveragepol i
    ciesrequlr
    eSuSt Oex -

    pandthebo undari
    esofourme nta lmode l
    ss othatwebec omea wareofandunder-
    st
    andthei mplic
    ati
    onsofthef eedba ckscreat
    edbyt hedec is
    ionswema ke･Thati
    s,
    wemus tlearnaboutthestr
    uc t
    urea nddyna micsoftheinc r
    eas l
    nglycomplexsys-
    te
    msi nwhi chwea reembedde d.

    1.
    1.3 Feedback
    Muc hoft hea r tofs ys tem dyna mi csmode l
    ingi sdi scove nnga ndr e pre se ntlngt he
    fe e
    dba ckpr oce ss es,whi ch,a longwi ths toc ka ndf lows t
    uc
    r t
    ur e s,timede lays ,a nd
    nonli ne ait
    r ies,de termi net hedyna mi csofas ys tem. Youmi h ti
    g ma ginet ha tthe r e
    isa ni mme nser angeofdi fe rentf ee dba ckpr oc es sesa ndot he rs truc tur est obe
    ma st
    e redbe for eonec anunde rstandt hedyna ic
    m sofc ompl exs ys tems .Inf a ct
    , the
    mos tc ompl exbe ha vi or sus ua llya risef romt hei nt era ct
    ions( f eedba cks )a mo ngt he
    compone ntsoft hes ys tem, notf ro mt hec ompl exi tyoft hec ompone ntst he ms elve s･
    l ldyna
    A mi csa risef rom t hei nter actionofj us tt wot ype soff ee dba c kl oo ps ,
    Pos itive( orse lf-re i
    nf o rcing)a ndne ga tive( ors elf- corre ct
    ing)l oops( Fi g ur e1 15) ･
    Pos itivel oopst endt or einf or ceora mpl ifywha teve ri sha ppe nl ngi nt hes ystem:
    Themo renuc lea rwe a ponsNATOde ploye ddur ingt heCol dWa r,themo ret heSo-

    vi e
    tUni onbui lt,le adingNATOt obui lds til
    lmor e. Ifaf i
    n l owe rsitspnc et oga ln
    ma rke ts hare,i tsc ompe tit
    o rsma yr e spondi nki nd,f orc i
    ngt hef i
    r mt ol owe ri ts
    pnc es tillmor e. Thel a rge rt hei ns tal
    l edba s eofMi cros oftsof twarea ndl nt elma-

    chine s ,themor ea ttrac t


    ivet he" Wi nte lMa r chitec turebe c amea sde ve lope r ss ought
    thel a rges tma rke tfo rt he irs oft warea ndc us t
    ome rss oughts yste msc ompa tibl e
    wi tht hemos ts of t
    wa re;t hemo r eWi nte lc omput erss ol d,thel arge rthei ns talled
    ba se. Thes epos itivel oopsa rea llpr oc e ssest ha tge ner atethe irowngr owt h,l e ad-
    1ngt Oa m Sr ac es ,pnC eWa rs ,a ndt hephe nome na lgr owt hofMi cros of ta ndl nt el,
    re s
    pe c t
    ive ly.
    Ne ga tivel oopsc ount era cta ndoppos ec ha nge･ Thel es snic otinei nac iga r
    e t
    t e,
    themor es moke r smus tc ons umet oge tt hedos et he yne ed. Themor ea ttra cti
    vea
    ne i
    ghbor hoodorc ity,t hegr e a tert hei nml gr ationf rom s urroundi nga rea swi l
    lbe,
    incre asingune mpl oyme nt,hous lngPnC eS ,C rowdi ngi nt hes chool s,a ndt raffi c
    conges tionunt iliti snomo rea ttra ctivet ha not he rpl acespe opl emi ghtl ive･ The
    highe rt hepnc eofac ommodi ty,t hel owe rt hede ma nda ndt hegr ea tert hepr o-
    duc tion,l ea dingt oi nve ntor ya cc umul a ti
    ona ndpr es suref orl owe rpnc e st oe l
    ii-
    m
    na t
    et hee xc esss toc k.Thel a rge rthema rke ts ha reofdomi na ntf irms ,t hemo r e
    likelyi sgove rnme nta ntitrus ta c tiont ol imi tt he irmonopol ypower ･Thes el oo ps
    allde s cribepr oc essest ha tte ndt obes e l
    f-1iml tlng, proc essest ha ts ee kba lanc ea nd
    equi li
    br ium.

    3
    Evensc
    ie
    nti
    st
    ssuff
    erf
    romthes
    epr
    oblems･
    Ioncehea
    rdadis
    ti
    ngui
    she
    dphys
    ic
    is
    tar
    guet
    hatt
    he
    s
    ol
    uti
    ontot
    heene
    rgyprob
    lemwastob
    uildhun
    dre
    dsofhugeofsh
    orenu
    cle
    rp
    a o
    werst
    at
    io
    ns,
    tobe
    c
    ool
    edbysea
    wate
    r.Thewan wast
    ewa
    terwoul
    dbep u
    mpedbackint
    heocea
    nwher
    e,h
    esai
    d,
    "
    Thewast
    ehea
    twou l
    ddis
    appe
    ar.
    "Out
    ofs i
    ght
    ,ou
    tofmind･
    Cha
    pte
    r1 Le
    arn
    ingl
    nanda
    boutCompl
    exSys
    tems 1
    3

    GURE 1
    FI -
    5
    Posi
    ti
    veandnegat
    ivef
    eedbackl
    oops
    r ･
    Posi
    lnthi
    t
    ivef eedback:Posi
    scase,mor echi ck
    ti
    veL
    ensl
    oopsar
    aymor
    esel
    eeggs,
    f
    - r
    ei
    whi
    nfor cmg.
    chhat ch
    Eggs り chi
    ckens
    andaddt
    eggs,
    othechi
    andsoon･
    ck enpopuF
    ACaus
    atjon,J
    alLoopDi
    eadi
    agr
    ngt os
    am orCLD(
    till
    mor e
    chap- ナ
    ㌧ ノ//
    ter5)Capt ur
    est hef eedbackdependencyofchi ckens Asyst
    em'
    sfeedbackst
    ruct
    ure
    andeggs.Thear rowsi ndicatet hec ausalr elationshi ps.
    The+st
    positi
    vel
    gnsatt
    yr el
    at
    hear
    edt ot
    rowheadsi
    hec
    ndi
    ause:ani
    cat
    ncr
    e的at的eef
    easei nt he
    f
    ec tis
    M
    gener
    atesi
    tsdynami
    cs
    chickenpopuF atl
    Lonc ausest henumberofeggsl ai
    deach
    dayt or i
    seabovewhati twoul dhavebeen( andvi ce
    versa:adecr easei nt hechick enpopuf ati
    oncausesegg
    l
    ayingt of aHbel owwhati twoul dhav ebeen) .Thel oopi s
    self
    -reinforcJ
    ng,henc ethel ooppol ari
    tyiden ti
    fierRJf
    thi
    sLoopwer et heonJ yoneoper at i
    ng,thechi ck enand
    eggpopul ati
    onwoul dbot hgr owexponent i
    aH y.
    Ofcour se,nor eal quantitycangr owf orever. Ther emus t
    bel i
    mll
    tSt Ogrowt h. Thesel r
    f
    mi tSar eCreatedbynegat i
    ve
    feedback.

    Negat ivefeedback:Negat ivel oopsar eself-correcting.


    Theyc ount
    erac tchange. Asthechi ck enpopul ation St
    ruct
    ure:
    gr ows, vari
    ousnegat i
    vel oopswi "ac ttobalancet he

    鯉
    chi ckenpopul ationwi t
    hi tscarrylngC apacity.OnecF asI
    sicf eedbacki sshownher e:Themor echi ckens, the ･
    .
    /--
    ー､､七了
    mor eroadcr oss∫ngst heyw川at temp t.J
    fthereisany
    traffi
    c,mor eroadcr osslngSWi lHeadt of ewerchi ck ens
    chi
    ekens cr
    oRs
    os
    ?n
    dgS
    (hencet henegat i
    ve-pol arit
    yf orthel i
    nkf r
    om r oad
    cr
    l
    at
    br
    ossi
    l
    r
    i
    OnC
    ngt
    ngstochi
    ausesmor
    hechick
    ckens)
    er i
    .
    sk
    enpopul
    Ani
    yr
    at
    ncr
    oadcr
    i
    easei
    ossl
    onbackdo
    nt hechi
    ngs,whi
    wn.
    ck
    cht
    TheBi
    enpopul
    hen
    nt he
    ･
    恵
    ､ 一､ - ∫ / ■

    cen terofal oopdenot esabal anclngf eedback.l ft he 並


    road- crossi
    ngl oopwast heonl yoneoper ati
    ng( saybe- Behavi
    or:
    causethefar
    mers el
    lsa‖theヲggs) ,thenumberof
    chi
    ckenswouldgr aduaHydecl l
    neun ti
    lnoneremained.
    AHsystems,nomat t
    erhowcompl ex,consi
    stofnet- Road
    worksofposi
    tiveandnegat ivefeedbacks,anda" Cr
    ossi
    ngs
    dynamicsari
    sef r
    omt heinteract
    iono ft
    heseloops
    wit
    honeanot her.
    Chi
    ckens

    Ti
    me
    14 P
    artI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    1.
    i.4 Pr
    ocessPoi
    nt:TheMeani
    ngofFeedback
    Inc ommonpa rlanc ethet e
    rm" f
    eed back"ha sc omet os erveasae uphe mismf or
    cr i
    ticizl
    ngOt he rs,asin" thebo ssga vemef ee
    dba ckonmypr e s
    e nt
    a t
    ion･"Thi suse
    o ffeedba cki sno twha tweme anins ystemdyna mi c s.Fur ther, "posit
    iv efeedback"
    doe snotme an" praise"and" negativef eedback"d oesno tme an" cri
    ticism."Pos i
    -
    tivef eedba ckd enote sas el
    f-reinforcingp rocess ,andne gativef eedba ckd enote
    sa
    se l
    f-correctlngO ne .Ei t
    herty peo floo pc anbegoodo rba d,de pendingo nwhi ch
    wa yl tiso pe rat
    lnga ndofc o urseo nyo urva lue s･Re s
    e rvet het ermspos iti
    vea nd
    ne ga t
    ivefe e
    d bac kfors el
    f-reinforci
    nga nds el
    f-c orrectingp roc e
    s s
    es ,
    a nda voidde-
    sc r
    ibingt hec riti
    c i
    smyo ugl VeO rr eceivet oothe rsa sf T
    e edba ck.Te l
    lings ome one
    you ro plniond oe sno tconstitutefeed backunl esst heya cto nyours ug gesti
    onsa nd
    thusl eadyo ut or evisey ourv iew.
    Tho ught herea reo nl
    yt wot y
    pe so ffeedba ckl oo p, mo de lsma ye a si
    lyc ont
    ain
    thous andsofl oo ps,o fbotht ypes,c oupledt oonea not herwi thmul tipletimede -
    lays ,nonlineariti
    e s
    , andac c
    umul at
    io ns.Thedyna mi c
    so fa l
    ls ystemsa r i
    sefromt he
    inter a
    c t
    ionsoft hesene two rkso ffe edba c
    ks .Intuitionma ye nableust oinferthe
    dyna micso fi s
    o l
    a t
    edl oopss ucha st hoses howni nFi gur eト5･ Butwhe nmul ti
    ple
    loo psinteract,itisno tsoe asytod etemi
    r newha tthed yna mi cswi llbe. Beforecon-
    tinulng,t r
    yt hec hallenges ho wni nFi gu re1-6. Whe ni ntuitionf ails,Weus ua
    lly
    tu仙 t oc omput ers i
    mu lat
    iont ode duc ethebe havi oro fou rmode l
    s･

    Dymami
    eso菅Mu司
    モ岳
    pBe-
    』⑳opSys官
    ems
    Wha tar
    ethedy namicso
    fthec
    hicke
    npo pul
    ati
    onwhenbo t
    hl oo
    psaresimult
    ane-
    ousl
    ya ct
    ive(FigureL6)?Ske
    tchag r
    aphshowingthebeha vi
    orofthechicke
    n
    popula
    tio
    no verti
    me .
    Assumet
    heini
    tia
    lchic
    kenpopula
    tio
    ni ssmal
    l(butin
    cludes
    atle
    astonerooste
    r).

    r ･r ･
    Eggs 鯉 chj
    ckens りc
    r
    o
    Ro ss
    qn
    d｡S

    ･
    較 ㌧ノ/
    / 架 ㌧ノ/
    //
    1.
    2 NG J
    LEARNI sA FEEDBACK PROCESS
    Justa sdyna micsa r
    isefr
    omf eedback,sotooalll
    earningdepe ndsonf e
    ed bac
    k･We
    ma kede cisi
    o nsthatalt
    ertherelwo
    a r
    ld;wegatherinfoma tionfeedbacka bo
    utthe
    r
    e alwo r
    ld,a ndus ingthene wi nfor
    ma t
    ionwer e
    viseo urunde rsta
    ndingo fthe
    wo rldandt hede cis
    ionswema ketobringourperceptl
    O nOfthestateofthesyst
    em
    closertoo urgoa ls(Figu
    re1 -
    7).
    Thef eedba ckloopinFi g
    urel 17appear
    sinma nygui sesthroughoutthesoc
    ial
    sciences.Ge o r
    geRi c
    hardson( 1991)
    ,inhishi s
    tor
    yo ffeedbackc onceptsinthe
    socialscience s
    ,showshowbe g i
    nnlnginthe1940sl e
    a di
    ngthinke r
    sinec onomi
    c s
    ,
    Ch
    apt
    erl Le
    arn
    ingl
    nan
    dab
    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 15

    Psychology,soci
    ology,anthr
    opology,andotherf i
    eldsr ecogniz
    edtha tt
    hec on-
    ceptoffeedbackdevelopedinphysicsandenglneerl
    nga ppliednoton
    lyt oserv0-
    me c
    hani s
    msb uttohuma nde c
    isi
    onma kingands oci
    a lsett
    lngSaSWe ll
    .By1 961,
    Forres
    ter,inIndu
    stri
    alDy namics
    ,a ss
    ert
    edthatalldec i
    sions(incl
    udinglear
    ning)
    ta
    kepl aceinthecontextoffe
    edbackloops･Lat
    e r
    ,theps ychologi
    stPowe r
    s(1973,
    p.351)wr ote:
    Feed
    b a
    ckissu
    chana l
    Lper
    vas
    iveandf
    unda
    me nt
    ala
    spec
    tofbehavi
    ort
    hati
    tisas
    in
    vis
    iblea
    stheai
    rthatwebr
    eat
    he.qui
    tel
    it
    era
    ll
    yiti
    sbehav
    ior
    -Wekn own ot
    hin
    g
    ofourownbehav
    iorbutt
    hefe
    edba
    ckefect
    sofourownout
    puts.
    The sef e edba ckthi nke rsfollowe dint hef ootstepsofJ ohnDewe y, whor ecogni zed
    thef e e dba ckl oopc ha racterofl ear nl nga roundt hebe glnnl ngOft he20t hc e ntury
    whe nhedes cribedl earnlnga Sa ni te rati
    vec ycleofi nve ntion,obs ervation, re le
    f c-
    tion,a nda ction( Sc h6n1992) .Fe e dba cka ccount sofbe ha viora ndl earningha ve
    nowpe rme atedmos toft hes oc iala ndma na geme ntsc ienc es .Lea rnl
    nga Sa ne x-
    plic i
    tf T
    e ed backpr oces sha se ve na ppe aredi npr acticalma nage me ntt oolss uc ha s
    Tot alQua li
    tyMa na ge me nt,whe ret hes o- call
    e dShe wha r
    t-De mi ngPDCAc ycle
    (Pl an- Do- Chec k-Ac t)l i
    esa tthehe a rtoft hei mpr ove me ntpr oc es sint hequa li
    ty
    impr ove me ntlite
    r ature( She wha r
    t1 939; Shi ba ,Gr aham, andWa lde n1 993) .
    Thes ing
    lef e
    e dba ckl oo ps howni nFi gur el 17de scribest hemos tba sict ypeof
    leaml ng. Thel oopI SaC las si
    ca lnega tivef eedba c kwhe re byde c
    isionma ke rsc om
    -

    pa rei nf om a t
    iona boutt hes t
    a teoft her e alwor ldt ova riousgoa ls,pe rc eivedi s-
    cre pa nc iesbe twe endes ireda nda ctua lstates,a ndt akea ctionst ha t( t
    he ybe lieve)
    wi llc a us et her ealwor ldt omovet owa rdst hedes ir
    e ds t ate.Eve ni ft hei nitia
    l
    choi c esoft hede cisionma kersdonotc loset hega psbe twe e ndes i
    r e
    da nda ctual
    states ,血es ystemmi ghte ve ntua l
    lyr e acht hedes ire dstatea ss ubs eque ntde c isions
    arer e vise di nlightoft hei nforma t
    ionr e
    ce ived( s eeHoga rh1
    t 981 ).Whe nd riving,
    Ima yt ur nt hes t
    e erlngWhe elt ool ittlet obr ing血eca rba ckt ot hec ent erofmy
    lane ,buta svisua lfT
    e edbac kr eve al
    st hee rror,Ic ont i
    nuet ot um t hewhe e lunt ilthe
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    ow. Ifthec ur re ntpr icef o rpr oduc t
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    Thef e ed ba ckl oops ho wni nFi gur e1 -7O bsc ure sa ni mpor tanta spe cto fthe
    leam1 ngPr o ce ss. Info rma t
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    too urde cisions .De cisio nsa r et her e sultofa ppl yingade c i
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    yt o
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    -
    gle S,a ndc ultur alno rms .The se ,i nt ur n,a regove r nedbyourme nt almod el
    s
    (Fig urel 18 ).Asl o nga st heme nta lmo de lsre ma inunc ha ng ed,t hef ee dba ckl oop
    showni nt hef igur er epr e sen tswha tAr gyr i
    s( 198 5)c all
    ss i
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    tlng
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    l
    mod e l
    s -O urunde r s
    tandi ngo ft hec ausa ls t
    ruc tureoft hes ys tem, thebo unda rywe
    dra wa roundt hes ys tem, thet imeho ri
    z onwec ons ide rr eleva nt-n oro urgoa l
    sa nd
    value s.Singl e -loo pl eain
    m gd oe sno ta ltero u rwo rld vi ew･
    Me ntalmo de lsa rewi delydi sc usse di nps ycho logya ndphi los ophy . Di ff
    er e
    nt
    theo ristsd e scribeme nta lmo de lsa sc olle cti
    onsofr out ine so rs ta nda rdo pe r
    atlng
    proc e dure s,S cript sfo rs elec tlngpos siblea ctions ,c ognl tivema psofad oma i
    n, t
    y-
    pol ogiesf orc ate go rizlnge xpe rie nce,l og ica ls t
    r uc tur esf orthei nte r
    pr etationo f
    lang ua ge ,Ora tt
    ributiO nsa bo uti nd i
    vi dua lswee nc ount eri nda ilyl i
    f e( Axe lrod
    1 976; Bowe ra ndMo rro w1 99 0;Che nga ndNi sbe tt1 98 5; Do ylea ndFo r
    d1 998;
    Ge nt nera ndSt eve ns1 98 3; Ha lfo rd1 993; Johns on- La ird1 98 3; Sc ha n ka ndAbe l
    -
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    tem dyna mi c sf rom t hebe gin ningo fthef i
    e l
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    l
    dec isionsa reba sedo nmo de ls,us uallyme nta lmode ls.Ins ys t
    emd yna mi cs,the
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    ief sa bo utthene two rksofc aus esa nde ff
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    thatde scribeho was ys temo pe rate s,alongwi tht hebo unda r yoft hemod el(whi ch
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    releva nt10 urf ra ml ngO ra rtic ulatio no fapr o bl em･
    Mos tofusdono ta ppr e cia tet heu bi qul tya ndi nvi si
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    FIGURE ･
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    Ourwor ldi sa c t
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    imet hec yc letimewa s1 8 2da ys
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    essentialf orc ont i
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    GURE1
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    nceoft hepr oblema nd

    TABLE l l
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    Pri
    ortothe1600S,scur
    vy(vi
    t
    aminCdefi
    cienc
    y)wasthegr
    eat
    estk川erof
    Teachi
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    seaf
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    ledeat
    hs,s
    tor
    ms,acci
    dent
    s,anda"ot
    hers
    dogsnewtri
    cks combI'
    ned.
    -
    rot
    aldel
    ay
    1601:Lanc asterconduct
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    edexper i
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    nganEas tlndi
    a
    i
    nlearnr
    ng:
    Companyvoyage:
    264years･ Thecr ewononeshi precei
    ved3t sp.oflemonj ul
    cedai ly;t
    hecr ewont hree
    othershipsdidnot.
    Resul t
    s:AttheCapeofGoodHopel 10outof278s ail
    orshaddi ed,mos t
    from scurvy.
    Thecr ewrecei
    vlnglemonJ ulCeremai nedl argelyhealthy.
    1747:Dr ,JamesLi ndconductsacont r
    o" edexperimenti nwhichs curv
    y
    pat i
    ent
    swer etreat
    edwi t
    havar i
    etyofelixir
    s.Thoser ecelVl
    ngCitruswer e
    cur edi
    naf ewdays;noneoft heot hertr
    eat mentswor k
    ed.
    1795: TheBr i
    ti
    shRoyalNavybegmsusl ngCit
    rusonar egularbasis.Scurvy
    wJ Pedout.
    1865: TheBr i
    ti
    shBoardofTrademandat esci
    trususe.Scur vywi pedou ti
    n
    themer chantmar i
    ne.

    ce:Mo
    Sour ste
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    1981
    ).
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    thedec isivee vide nces uppl iedbycont rol l


    ede xpe r
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    une500l a rgesti ndus tri
    a lfi
    n si n1 970ha ddi sappea r edby1 983
    ldeGe us1 997] )
    .Toda yther at
    eofc ha ngei nours ys t
    emsi smuc hf aster,a ndt heir
    compl exityl Smuc hgr eater.Thede laysi nl earni
    ngf orma nypr es slngpr obl ems
    rema i
    nwoe fullyl ong.I nmos ts et
    tlngSWel ackt hea bilitytor unexpe rime nts,
    andt hede l
    aysbe twee ni nte r
    ve ntionsa ndout comesa remuchl onger .Ast he
    rat
    eofc ha ngea cce le
    ratesthr oughouts oci ety,leaml ngr ema inss low,une ve n,and
    inadequa te.
    Figurel 1
    1 2showst hema i
    nwa ysi nwhi c heac hlinki nthel eai ngf
    m ee dbacks
    canf ai
    l.Thes ei ncludedyna mi cc ompl exi t
    y,I mper f
    e c
    ti nf ormat i
    ona boutt hes tate
    ofther ealwor l
    d,conf oundi nga nda mbi guousva ia
    r bles, Poors c i
    e nti
    ficr eas onlng
    ski
    lls,de fensiver outines,a ndot herba r
    rierst oe fec ti
    vegr ouppr oces ses,i mpl e一
    me ntati
    onf ai
    lure,a ndtheml SPer CePtlOnSOff eedba ckt ha thinde roura bilityt oun-
    dersta
    ndt hes t
    ructur eanddyna mi csofc ompl exsys t
    ems .
    Fl
    GURE1- 12
    I
    mpediments Rea一Wor 一d
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    S

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    nformati
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    St
    rat
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    ruct e,
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    Decisi
    onRu首es Mi
    sper
    cept
    ion
    soffe
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    Uns
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    1
    .3.
    1 Dy
    nami
    cComp一
    exi
    t
    y
    Muc hoft hel iter aturei nps yc hol ogy,e conomi cs ,a ndot he rf ieldss ugges tsl earnl
    lngPr oc e edsvi at hes impl ene ga tivef ee dba ckl oo psde sc ribe di nFi gur eI l ll ･
    Im-
    pl icitl
    y,t hel oo psa res e ena ss wi ft,l i
    nea r,ne ga tivef e
    e dba ckst hatpr oduc es tabl e
    c onve rge nc et oa ne qui l
    ibriumoro pt lma lout c ome, jus ta Si mme dia tevi sua lf eed-
    ba cka llowsyo ut of il
    lagl a ssofwa terwi thouts pi lli
    ng･ Ther e alwor ldi snots o
    simpl e.Fr om t hebe ginnlng,S yst em dyna mi cse mpha s ize dt hemul tiloo p,mul ti-
    sta te,nonl ine arc ha r
    a cteroft hef T
    e edba cks ys temsi nwhi c hwel ive( For res ter
    1 961 ). Thede cisionsofa nyonea ge ntf ormbutoneofma nyf T
    ee dba ckl oopst ha t
    ope ratei na nyg lVe nS ystem. Thes el oopsr e ac ttot hede c isionma ke r 'Sa c tionsi n
    wa ysbot ha ntlClpa t
    e da nduna ntlC l
    pa ted; the rema ybepos itivea swe lla sne gative
    fe edba ckl oops ,a ndt hesel oopswi llc onta inma nys toc ks( s
    t ateva riabl es )a nd
    ma nynonl ine ait
    r ies .Na turala ndhuma ns ys t
    e msha vehi ghl eve lsofd ynami cc om-
    pl exiy.Ta
    t bl e1 -3S howss omeoft hec ha rac teris ticsofs ys t
    e mst ha tgi ver i
    set o
    dyna mi cc ompl e xlty.
    Mos tpe oplet hinkofc ompl exl tyl nt ermsOft henumbe rofc ompone nt sina
    sys tem ort hen umbe rofc ombi na ti onsonemus tc ons ide ri nma ki ngade c i
    sion･
    Thepr obl emo fo pt l
    ma l
    lys c he dul inga na irline' Sfli ght sa ndc rewsi shi ghl yc om-
    pl ex,butt hec ompl exi t
    yl iesi nf i
    ndi ngt hebe sts ol utiono utofa na str onomi c al
    numbe rofpos s ibiliti
    e s.Suc hne e dle -in-a -ha ys tackpr o bl emsha vehi ghl e ve l
    sof
    combi nat or ialc o mpl e xit
    y( als okn owna sde tailc ompl e xi t
    y) .Dynami cc ompl ex-
    1ty ,lnC Ont r aSt,C ana ri
    s eeve ni ns impl es yste mswi t
    hl owc ombi na t oria lc ompl ex-
    ity.TheBe erDi stributionGa me( Ste ma n1 989 b, cha p.1 7･4)p rovi de sa ne xa mpl e:
    Compl exa ndd ys func t
    io nalbe ha viora is
    r esf romave rys impl es yste mwhos er ule s
    ca nbee xpl ainedi n1 5mi nut es .Dyna mi cc ompl e xi tya r isesf r
    omt hei nt era ctions
    amongt hea gen tsove rtime.
    Timede l a
    ysbe twe ent ak ingade cis i
    o na ndi tse fe ctsont hes tateoft hes ystem
    rec
    a ommona ndpa rticularlyt roubl es ome. Mos tobvi ous ly ,de laysr e duc et henum-
    be roft ime son ec a nc yc l
    ea roundt hel e arnl ngl oop,s lowl ngt hea bilityt oa ccu-
    mul atee xpe r i
    enc e, testhypot hes es ,a ndi mpr ove･Sc hne ide rma n( 1988)e stima ted
    thei mpr ove me ntha lflife-t het i
    mer equi re dt oc utde fec tsinha l
    f-i nawi de
    ra ngeofma nuf a cturingf i
    rms . Hef oundi mpr ove me ntha lfl ivesa ss ho rtasaf e w
    mont hsf orpr oc e sse swi ths hor tde lays ,f ore xampl er e duc i
    ngope r a
    t ore rrori na
    jobs hop, whi lec ompl e xproc e sseswi thl ongt lmede layss uc ha spr oduc tde ve lop一
    me れtha di mpr o ve me ntha l
    fl ive sofs e ve ralye arsormo re･ 7
    Dyna mi cc ompl exitynotOnl ys lo wst hel e arnl ngl oo p;i ta lsor e duc est he
    lea ml ngga ine do ne achc yc le .Inma n yc asesc ont rol l
    e de xpe r
    ime nt sa repr ohibi -
    tive lyc os tlyo rune thical.Mor eo洗e n, itiss impl yi mpos s iblet oc on血c tc ont rolled
    expe ri
    me nts .Co mpl exs ys temsa rei nd isequi libr ium a nde vol ve･ Ma nya cti
    ons
    yi eldi r
    r ever si
    bl ec onse quences.Thepa stc a nnotbec ompa re dwell t oc ur re ntc ir-
    cums t
    ance.Thee xis t
    enc eofmul tipl ei nte ractingf e ed ba c ksme an s iti sdi ffic ultto
    hol dot heras pec tsoft hes ys tem con stantt oi sol atet hee ffectof theva ria bleof
    int erest.M anyva riablesc ha ngesi mul tane ous l
    y,c onf oundi ngt he i nt e rpr etation

    7
    ste
    man,Repe
    nni
    ng,
    andKof
    man(1997)s
    howho
    wth
    esed
    if
    fe
    ren
    ti
    ali
    mpr
    ove
    men
    tra
    tesl
    edt
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    ifi
    cul
    tya
    tale
    adi
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    mico
    ndu
    cto
    rman uf
    act
    ur
    er
    ･
    22 Pa
    rtI Pe
    rspe
    cti
    vea
    ndPr
    oce
    ss

    TABLE1
    -3
    Dynami
    c Dynam i
    ccom p一
    exi
    tyar
    isesbecausesyst
    emsar
    e

    compl
    exi
    ty Dynami c:Her acr itussai d," Al lischange. "Whatappear st obeunchangl ngl S,overa
    l
    ongert i
    mehor izon,Seent ovar y.Changei ns ystemsoccur satmanyt imescaJ es,
    andt hesedi f
    fer entscal essomet imesi nt erac t.As tarevol vesoverbi l
    lj
    onsofyear sas
    i
    tbumsi tshydr ogenf uel, thencanexpl odeasasuper novai nseconds.Bul lmar ket s
    cangoonf oryear s,thencr ashi namat terofhour s.
    Ti ght lycoupl ed:Theac tor si nt hes ys tem i nter ac ts tr
    ongl ywi thoneanot herand
    wi tht henat ural wor ld.Ever ythi ngl Sconnec t
    edt oever ythingel se. Asaf amous
    bumpers t
    ick erf r
    om t he1960spr ocl aimed," Youc an'tdoj us tonet hing."
    Gover nedbyf eedback:Becauseoft het i
    ghtcoupI HlgSamongact or s,Ourac ti
    ons
    feedbackont hems el
    ves.Ourdeci sionsal tert hes t
    at eoft hewor ld,Causl ngChanges
    innat ureandt riggenngot her st oac t, thu sgl vlngu set OanewSi t uationwhi cht hen
    in fl
    uencesournextdeci sions.Dynami csar i
    sef romt hesef eedback s.
    Nonl inear :Ef fec ti sr arelypr opor ti
    onal toc ause,andwhathappensl ocal lyl naS ys
    -

    tem ( neart hecur rentoper at ingpoi nt)of tendoesnotappl yi ndi s tantr egi ons( other
    st at esoft hes ys tem) .Nonl inear i
    tyof tenar isesf romt hebasi cphysi c sofsyst ems:ln-
    su f
    f i
    cienti nven t
    or ymaycaus eyout oboos tpr oduc ti
    on,butpr oduct ioncanneverf all
    bel owzer onomat terhow muchexces si n vent or yyouhave.NonH near i
    tyal soar is es
    asmul tjplef ac tor si nteracti ndeci sionmak ing:Pr essur ef rom t hebos sforgr eater
    achi evementi ncr easesyourmot i
    vat ionandef f
    or t- upt ot hepoi ntwher eyouper -
    cei vet hegoaHobei mpossi bl e.Fr us trat iont hendomi natesmot i
    vat ionandyougl Ve
    uporgetanewbos s.
    Hi st or y- dependent :Taki ngoner oadof tenpr ecl udest aki ngot her sanddet er mines
    wher eyouendup( pat hdependence) .Man yac tionsar ei rrever sibl e:Youcan' tun-
    scr ambl eanegg( thesecondl awoft her modynami cs).St ock sandf l
    ows( accumu-
    lat i
    ons)andl ongt imedel aysof tenmeandoi ngandundoi nghavef undament all
    y
    di f
    fer entt i
    mec onst ant s:Dur ingt he50year soft heCor dWarar msr acet henucl ear
    nat i
    onsgener atedmor et han250t onsofweapons- gradepl utoni um ( 239pu) .Thehal f
    li
    f eof2 39 Pui sabout24, 000year s.
    Sel f-or gand Zlng:Thedynami csofs ys t
    emsar isespont aneousl yf romt hei rinternal
    s truc ture.Of ten,smal l,random per t
    ur bat i
    onsar eampl i
    fi
    edandmol dedbyt hef eed-
    backs tructur e,gener atingpat temsi nspaceandt imeandcr eat i
    ngpat hdependence.
    Thepat ternofs tri
    pesonazebr a, ther hy thmi ccont rac t
    ionofyourhear t,theper sis-
    tentc yclesi nt her eal estat emar ket ,ands truc turessuchasseashel lsandmar k ets
    al lemer gespont aneous一 yf rom t hef eedback samongt heagent sandel ement soft he
    s ys tem.
    Adapt i
    ve:Thecapabi li
    ti
    esanddeci sionr ulesoft heagent si ncompl exs ys tems
    changeovert i
    me.Evol ution一 eadst ose一 ec ti
    onandpr olif
    er ationofsomeagen tswhi le
    ot her sbec omeex ti
    nc t.Adapt at i
    onal sooccur saspeopl eream f r
    om exper ience,esI
    peci aJIyast heyr eam newwayst oachi evet hei rgoal sint hef aceofobs tacl es.Lear n-
    1ngI Snotal waysbenef i
    cial ,however .
    Count erjnt uitive:l ncompl exs ys temscauseandef fectar edi stanti nt imeandspace
    whH ewet endt ol ookf orcausesneart heevent sweseekt oexpl ain.Ourat tenti
    onI S
    dr awnt ot hes ympt omsofdi f f
    icul tyr at hert hant heunder F
    yngcause.Hi ghl ever age
    po一 iciesar eof tennotobvi ous.
    Pol icyr esi stant :Thecompl exi tyoft hes ys temsi nwhi chwear eembeddedover -
    wheJ msourabi l
    ityt ounder standt hem. Ther esul t:Manyseeml ngl yobvi oussol utions
    topr obl emsf air oract ual l
    ywor sent hesi tuat i
    on.
    Char act eri2:edbyt rade･ of fs:Ti medel aysi nf eedbackchanne一 smeant hel ong- run
    responseofas ys tem t oani nter ven t i
    oni sof tendi fferentf rom i tsshor t-runr espons e.
    Hi ghl ever agepo一 iciesof t
    encausewor se- bef or e-bet terbehavi or,whi l
    el owl ever age
    pol i
    ci esof tengener atet ransi tor yI mpr ovementbef oret hepr obl em gr owswor se.
    Ch
    apt
    er1 Le
    aml
    ngl
    nan
    dab
    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 23

    ofsys tembe haviora ndr e duc ingt hee ff


    e ctivenessofe achc yclearoundthel ean-
    r
    1ngloo p.
    De laysa l
    soc re at
    ei nstabi li
    tyi ndyna mi csys t
    ems .Addi ngt imede l
    ayst o
    negativef e e
    dba ckl oopsi ncre asest hetende ncyfort hes ystemt oos ci
    llat
    e･8s ys-
    temsf r om d ri
    vingaca r,todr inkinga l
    c ohol ,tora i
    slnghogs ,toc onst
    ructi
    onof
    offi
    cebui ldi
    ngsa l
    li nvol vet imede l
    aysbe twe enthei nit
    iationofacont r
    ola ct
    ion
    (acceler a
    ting/braki
    ng,de cidingt o" havea nother,
    Hc hoos ingt obre edmor ehogs ,

    develo pingane wbui lding)a ndi tse fect sont hes tat
    eoft hes yst
    em. Asar e s
    ul t
    ,
    decisionma kersof tenc ontinuet oi nterve net oc orrecta ppa re
    ntdi scr
    epanc ies
    betwe enthede sir
    eda nda ctua
    ls tateoft hes yst
    eme vena ftersufic i
    entcorrective
    acti
    onsha vebe enta ke nt or estoret hes ys t
    e mt oe quili
    brium.Ther es
    ultisove r-
    shoota ndos c i
    ll
    aio
    t n: stop-and- gotra f
    fi
    c, drunke nne s
    s, c
    ommodi t
    yc ycl
    es,andr eal
    est
    a t
    eboom- and-bus tc ycles( S eec hapter1 7.4).Os cil
    lati
    ona ndins t
    abil
    it
    yr educ e
    oura bilit
    yt oc ontr
    olf orc onf oundi ngva r i
    a blesanddi scem ca usea nde f
    fect,fur-
    therslowl ngt herateofl ea ml ng.

    1.
    3.2 LI
    L
    mit
    edl
    nfor
    mat
    ion
    Wee xpe rienc ether e alwor ldthr oughf ilters. Noonek n Owst hec urre nts alesrate
    oft he irc ompa n y,thec urrentr ateofpr oduc tion, ort het r
    ueva lueoft heor derba ck
    -

    loga ta nygl Vent ime. instea dwer ec eivee stima tesoft he seda taba sedons ampl ed,
    ave ra ge d,a ndde la ye dmea sur eme nt s.Thea c tofme asur eme nti nt r
    od uc esdi st
    or-
    tions ,de lays ,bi ases ,errors, andothe ri mpe rf
    e c t
    io ns ,somek n own, othe rsunknown
    andunknowa ble.
    Abovea ll,me a sur eme nti sana c tofs elec tion. Ours e nsesa ndi nf om a t
    ions ys-
    temss elec tbutat inyf r
    a c
    tionofpos siblee xpe r i
    e nc e. Someoft hes ele ctioni shard
    -

    wi red( wec annots e ei nthei nfraredorhe arul t


    r asound) .Somer es ultsf rom our
    ownde cisions .Wede finegr os sdome sticpr oduc t( GDP)s ot ha te xtra ctionofnon-
    rene wa bler es ourc esc ountsa spr oduc tionr a the rtha nde ple t
    ionofna t
    ur alc aplt
    al
    stoc ksa nds ot hatme dicalc area ndf une rale xpe ns esc ausedbypol lut ion-induc ed
    dise asea ddt ot heGDPwhi let hepr oduc tionoft hepol lutioni tse l
    fdoe snotr e
    duc e
    it.Be caus et hepr lC eSOfmos tgoodsi noure c onomi cs ystem donoti ncl
    udet he
    cos tsofr eso urcede pl eti
    onore nvi ronme nta lde gr adation,t he s ee xt erna l
    itiesre-
    ce i
    vel ittl
    ewe i
    g hti nde ci
    sionma king( s
    e eCobba ndDa ly1 989f b∫t ho ught fuldi s
    -
    cus sionofa lterna tiveme as uresofe c onomi cwe l
    fa re) .
    Ofc our se,thei nf orma tions ys temsgove r nlngt hef eedba ckwer e ce
    ivec an
    cha ngea swel ea rn.The ya repa rtoft hef e ed ba cks tr
    uc tur eofo urs ys t
    e ms ･
    Thr o ughourme nta lmode lswede finec ons tuc
    r tss ucha sGDPors cientifi
    cr e-
    sear ch,c reateme tr i
    csf orthes eide as ,andde signi nfor ma ti
    ons ystemst oe valuate
    andr e po rtthe m.The sethe nc onditiont hepe rc ept lOnSWef or m･Cha ngesi nour
    me nt almode lsa rec ons t
    raine dbywha twepr evi ous lyc hos et ode fi ne,me asure,

    8Techn
    ica
    ly
    l ,
    nega
    ti
    velo
    opswit
    hnoti
    med e
    lay
    sarefi
    rst
    10r
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    ;th
    eeige
    nval
    ueofthel
    ine
    aiZ
    r ed
    sys
    temcanonlybere
    alan
    do s
    ci
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    at
    ioni
    simpos
    sib
    le.Addin
    gdela
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    ta
    tevar
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    s)all
    owsth
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    genVlu
    a est
    ob ec
    omecomple
    xconj
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    yie
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    ･Wheth
    ertheosc
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    oft
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    Alle
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    rO
    lloo
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    sst
    abl
    ethesyst
    emwi l
    lbe
    .
    24 Pa
    rtI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    a
    ndatt
    endt
    o.Se
    eingi
    sbe
    lie
    vingandbe
    lie
    vingl
    SSe
    elng･
    The
    yfe
    edba
    ckonone
    a
    not
    her.
    Inaf a mouse xpe rime nt, Brune ra ndPos tma n( 1949)s howe dpl ayi ngc ardst o
    pe opl eus l
    ngat aC histos copet oc ontrole xpos uret i
    met ot hes ti
    mul i.Mos tc ould
    ide ntifyt hec ardsr api dlya nda ccur at
    e ly.The ya lsoi ncludeds omea noma lous
    c a
    r ds, suc ha sabl a ckt hr eeofhe ar t
    sorar edt enofs pa des .Pe oplet ookona ve rage
    fourt i
    me sa sl ongt oj udget hea noma l
    ousc a rds IMa nymi s i
    dent ifie dt he m
    (e.g.,t he ys aidt hr eeofs pa desort hr eeofhe artswhe ns hownabl a ckt hr eeof
    he arts).Somec oul dnoti dentifyt hec a rda ta ll,e ve nwi thve ryl onge x pos ure
    ime
    t s ,a ndgr ewa nxi ousa ndc onf used.Onl yas ma llmi nor i
    tyC OrreCtl yi de ntif i
    ed
    thec ards IBr une ra ndPos t
    ma nc o nclude d," Per ceptua lorga niz ationi spowe rful l
    y
    de termi ne dbye xpe ctationsbui l
    tuponpa stc omme r c
    ewi tht hee nvi ronme nt｡
    "
    He nr iBe rgsonputi tmor es ucc inctly:H Thee yes eesonl ywha tt hemi ndi spr e-
    pa redt oc ompr ehe nd. "
    Thes e lf
    -reinf o rcingf eed backbe twe ene xpe c tationsa ndpe rc eptl
    OnSha sbe en
    repe ate dlyde mons trate di nawi deva rietyofe xpe rime ntals t
    udi es( s
    eePl ous1 993
    fore xc e l
    lentdi s cus sion) ･So me t
    imest hepos it
    ivef eedba c
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    sl e arni ngby
    sha rpe nlngOura bi lityt ope rcei
    vef eatur esoft hee nvi ronme nt ,aswhe na ne xpe ri
    -
    enc edna t
    ur al
    istide ntifiesabi rdi nadi s
    ta ntbus hwhe ret henovi c
    ebi rde rs ee sonl y
    at angl e dt hicket .Of ten,howe ve r,themut ualf ee dba ckofe xpe ctationsa ndpe r
    -
    cept lOnl i
    mi tsle a rningbybl indi ngust ot hea noma l
    i estha tmi ghtc ha llengeour
    me nt almode ls.Thoma sKuhn( 1 970)c i
    te dt heBr une r -Pos tma ns t udyt oa rguet ha t
    as cie ntificpa radi gm s uppr e ssesthepe rc eptionOfda tai ncons i st
    e ntwi t
    ht hepa ra
    -
    digm,ma kingi tha r df ors c i
    e nt
    istst ope r ceivea noma liestha tmi ghtl ea dt os cien-
    tif
    icr e volut i
    on.9

    Asoneofma nye xa mpl es,thehi stor yofoz onede pletionbyc hl or of


    luor o-
    carbons( CFCs )S howst hemut ua lde pende nc eofe xpe ctationa ndpe rc e ptioni sno
    labor a t
    or ya rtifac tbutaphe nome nonwi t
    hpot ent iallygr avec ons e que nc esf or
    huma nl ty.
    Thef irsts cie ntificpa pe rsde scribingt hea bilityofCFCst ode s troya tmos -
    phe ricozonewe republ is
    he di n1 974( Mol inaa ndRowl a nd1 974;St ola rskia nd
    Cic erone1 974) .Ye tmuc hoft hes cientificc ommuni t
    yr e ma ine ds ke ptic a l,a nd
    des piteaba nonCFCsa sa e rosolpr ope llant s,lo
    g ba
    lpr oduc t
    iono fCFCsr e ma ined
    nea ri tsa lltimehi gh.I twa snotunt il1 985t ha te vide nc eofade e poz onehol ei n
    theAnt arcticwa spubl i
    s hed( Fa rma n,Ga rdine r,andSha nkl i
    n1 985) .Asde sc ribed
    byMe adows ,Me a dows ,a ndRa n°e r
    s( 1 992, pp.1 51 -1 52) :
    Thenewsrev
    e r
    bera
    tedaro
    un dt
    hesci
    ent
    if
    icwor
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    cram-
    bl
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    pher
    icozonema
    d ebytheNimbus7sat
    el
    li
    te,
    me a-
    Sur
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    kenrout
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    lysi
    nce19
    78 .Ni
    mb us7hadnev
    erin
    dica
    ted
    anozo
    nehole.

    9
    ster
    man(19
    8 5
    a)dev
    elo
    pedafor
    malmodelofKuhn'
    Stheor
    y,whi
    chsho
    wedth
    atthepos
    it
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    eed
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    ati
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    ndperce
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    0nSS
    uppres
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    ecog
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    io
    nofano
    ma l
    i
    esandthe
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    mergen
    ceofne
    wp ar
    adi
    gms.St
    ermanandWit
    te
    n b
    erg(1
    9 99
    )ext
    ende
    dthemode
    ltosi
    mu l
    at
    e
    t
    hecompet
    i
    ti
    onamongri
    valt
    heo
    ries
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er1 Le
    arI
    l
    lngl
    nan
    dab
    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 25

    Chec
    kingback,
    NASAs ci
    enti
    st
    sfoun
    dthatt
    hei
    rcomp
    uter
    shadbee
    npr0-
    g
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    ectVer
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    eadi
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    teinst
    rumenter
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    ･
    TheNASAs cient is
    ts'beliefthatl owoz oner eadingsmus tbee r r
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    tode signame a
    s ureme nts yst
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    ibl etode tectlowr eadingst ha t
    mi ghtha ves hownt he i
    rbe li
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    e ly,NASAha ds ave d血eo ng-
    inal,unfilt
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    e a
    t e
    dame asureme nts ys -
    temi mmunet odi sconfirmationt hedi s cove ryoft heoz onehol ea ndr esulting
    globa lagre ement st ocea seCFCpr oduc ti
    onwe rede layedbyasmuc ha s7ye ars.
    Thos e7ye arsc oul dbes ignif
    ic a
    nt : ozonel e velsinAnt arctic
    adr oppe dt olesst han
    one-thirdofnor ma lin1993,a ndc urrentmode lss howt hate venwi t
    hful lcompl i-
    ancewi t
    ht heba n( t
    he r
    ei sathr i
    vi ngbl a
    c kma rketi nCFCs ),atmos phe r
    icc hlorine
    willnotbe gintof a l
    luntilthefirstde cadeoft he21 stc entury,andt henonl ys l
    owl y･
    Da t
    ac ol
    lec tedne arToront oint hee a
    rly1 990ss howe da5% i nc reasei nc anc er-
    causingUVBu ltraviole
    tr adiati
    ona tgroundl eve l,indica t
    lngtha tozonede pletion
    alreadya fe ctsthehe avilypopul at eda nda grlCultur allyvitalnor t
    he m he mi s
    phe re
    (Culo tt
    aa ndKo s hland1 993).The血i nningoft heoz onel a
    ye risagl oba lphenom-
    enon, not justaPr oblemf orpe ng ui ns.

    1
    .3.
    3 Conf
    oundi
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    iabl
    esandAmbi
    gui
    ty
    Tol ean wemus tusethel imite
    da ndi mpe r
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    ablet oust oun-
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    standt hee fectsofourownde cisi
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    owec ana djustourde cisionst oalign
    thes t
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    eoft hes yste
    m wi t
    hourgoa l
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    onwer eceiveisa mbiguous. Ambi guitya is
    r esbe caus ec hangesi n
    thes t
    a t
    eoft hes ystemr esult
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    sionsa rec onfounde dwi ths i
    一
    mul ta
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    ･Thenumbe rofva ri
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    lyoverwhe lmstheda taava ila
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    theoriesandc ompetlngl nter
    Pretati
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    Andther
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    Toen
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    (
    i,i
    ,28-31)
    DoesRic har
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    oapredesti
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    ,With
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    employme ntf
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    lua t
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    tact
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    candecidehowt oa ctinthefut
    ure.
    26 Pa
    rtIP
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    I
    nthequa ntita
    tiverealm,e nglnee r
    Sande c
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    wi ththeproblem ofuni quelyidentifyingthes t
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    sbeha vi
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    ea mongc ompe tl
    ngtheorie s
    .Thes ame
    da taoft
    ens upportwi l
    dlydivergentmode l
    se qua
    ll ywe l
    l,a
    ndconc lusionsbasedon
    suc hmode lsa r
    enotr obust.AsLe ane r(
    1 983)puti tinana r
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    s
    Ta ketheC̀on' OutofEc onome tri
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    M:
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    ardwayweind
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    slea
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    .10

    1･
    3L4 BoundedRatiol
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    sper
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    ofFeedback
    Dyna micc ompl e
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    ma nc ebyl i
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    fullyr a
    tiona lma nner(thatis,maket hebes tde cisionspos si
    bl eg
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    ma-
    tiona vai
    la bletous )
    .Asma rvel
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    tyoft here a
    l
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    VeC apabil
    iti
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    ticulatedthe
    li
    mi t sonhuma ndec i
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    pleofbounde dra-
    ti
    ona lit
    y,"f orwhi chhewont heNobe lMe mor ia lPrizei ne conomi csi
    n1 979:
    Theca
    pac
    ltyOfthehuma
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    rfor
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    leappro
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    osuchob
    ject
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    ty.
    (Si
    mon1957,p.1
    98)
    Fac e
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    yofther ea
    lworld,ti
    mepr essure,andli
    m-
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    ,Wea reforc e
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    sions.Tho ughwes ome -
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    itytoleanf
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    h i
    W leboundedrationali
    ya
    t fectsa l
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    Ontheco
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    t
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    g,Seecha 21.
    p.
    Ch
    apt
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    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 27

    ins ys t emswi t
    he venmode stl e
    ve lsofdyna mi cc ompl exity( Ta ble1 -4).Thes e
    studi esl edmet os ugge stthattheobs e rveddys func t
    ioni ndyna mi callyc ompl ex
    settingsa ris esf rom mi s
    per c
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    proc e sses,f a iltoa ppr eci
    atet i
    mede laysbe twe ena cti
    ona ndr e spons ea ndi nt he
    repor tingOfi nfo ma
    r tion,donotunde rstands toc ksa ndflowsa nda rei nsens iivet
    t o
    nonl ine ri
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    terthes trengt hsofdi fferentfeedba c kl oopsa sas yste m
    evol ves .
    Subs eque ntexpe rimentss howt hatt heg rea t
    e rthedyna mi cc ompl exltyOft he
    envi ronme ntt hewor s epeopl edor elativetopot enti
    al.Fur t
    he r,thee xpe rime nts
    showt heml S PerCePtlOnSOff ee d
    ba ckarer obus ttoe xpeie
    r nc e,fina ncialinc ent i
    ve s,
    expe r ience,a ndt hepr ese
    nc eofma rketi nst
    itutions( see,e. g.,Di ehla ndSt e rma n
    1993;Pa icha ndSt ema
    r n1993;Ka mpma nnandSt ema
    r n1 998) .
    Ther obus t
    nessoft heml SPerC ePtlOnSOff e edba c
    ka ndt hepoorpe rforma nce
    theyc a usea r ed uetot woba s
    ica ndr e l
    ate ddefic ienciesinourme nt almode l
    . First,
    ourc ognl tlVema psOft heca uslS
    a t
    ruc tureofs ys temsa revas t
    lys impl i
    fie dc om-

    par edt ot hec ompl exi tyoft


    hes ystemst he mse lves .Second, Wea reuna blet oi nfer
    cor r
    e ctlyt hedy naic
    m sofallbutt hes impl estc aus alma ps. Bot hared i
    rec tc onse-
    que nc e sofbound edr a t
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    ha tis,thema nyl imitat
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    ma ki ng.

    TABLE l･
    4
    lnasi mpl epr oduc ti
    on-di stri
    bu ti
    ons ys t
    em( theBeerDi str
    ibuti
    onGame) ,
    Mi spercepti
    ons
    off eedback peopl e, fromhi ghs chool studen tst oCEOs,gener atecostl
    yf l
    u ctuati
    ons
    havebeen (busines sc ycles ).Aver agec os t
    swer emor et han1 0timesgr eat erthan
    documen ted optimal (St erman1 989b) .
    nmany
    i
    Sub j
    ec t sres ponsi blef orc apital i
    n ves tmen ti
    nasi mplemulti
    pIIer -
    ac celerator
    exper i
    men taf model oft hee conomygener atel ar geampl i
    tudec ycl
    esevent houghc on-
    studies. sumerdeman di sc onstan t.Aver agec os t
    swer emor ethan30t imesgr eater
    thanopt imal (
    St erman1 989a) l
    Sub j
    ec tsmanagl ngaf ir
    mi nas imul atedc onsumerpr oductmar ketgener ate
    thebooman dbus t
    ,prlCeWar ,ands hak e-outchar act
    eris
    ti
    co findus t
    riesf rom
    videogamest och ains aws( PaichandSt erman1 993).
    Parti
    cipan tsi nexper i
    men tal assetmar ketsrepeat edl
    ybidprlCeSWe"abo ve
    fundamen tal value,onl yt os eet hempl ummetwhena" greaterf ool"cann o
    l
    ongerbef oun dt obu y.Thes es pecul ati
    vebubb一 esdonotdi sapp earwh en
    thepar t i
    cipan tsar ei nves tmen tpr of es si
    onal s,whenmonet aryl nC enti
    vesar e
    provided, or whensh or t
    -seH i
    n gisaE Iowed( Smi th,Suchanek, andWi "i
    ams
    1988) .
    Fnaf or estf ir
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    on,man ypeopf eaI Iowt heirheadquarter st obur n
    downdespi tethei rbes te什or tst opu tou tthef i
    re(Brehmer1 989) .
    lnamedi c alsetting, Sub j
    ec tspl ayl ngt her o一eofdoc t
    orsordermor etes t
    s
    whilet he( simulat ed)pat ientssi ck enanddi e(KIeinmuntzandThomas
    1987) .
    28 P
    artI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    1.
    3.5 F長
    awedCogni
    ti
    veMaps
    Ca us ala ttibu
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    ionsa reac ent ralf ea t
    ur eofme ntalmo de l
    s. Wea llc re atea ndupda t
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    cognl tlVema psOfc aus alc onne ctionsa monge ntitie sa nda c to rs,f rom t hepr oI
    sa ic-i fIt ouc haf la meIwi llbebu rned -t ot heg rand -t hel a rg ert hegove rn me nt
    de fic it,thehi gh eri n terestr ateswi l
    lbe .St udi esofc og nltlVema psS howt ha tf e w
    inc o rpo ratea nyf e e dba ckl oo ps .Ax elrod( 19 76)f o un dvi rtua llynof ee dba ck
    pr oc es sesi ns tud i
    e soft hec og nltlVema psO fpo l it
    ica llea de rs;ra the r,pe o plet ende d
    tof ormul a tei ntuitiv ed e cis iont r eesr elatingpos siblea ctionst opr oba bl ec o ns e-
    que nc e s
    -a ne venトl e velr epr ese nta ti
    on･Ha ll( 1976)r e portss i
    mi laro pe nl loo p
    me nt alma psi nas tud yoft hepubl ishingi ndus try .D6 ne
    r r( 198 0,1 99 6)f oundt hat
    pe o plet endt ot hinki ns lng les t
    ra ndc ausals eri
    e sa ndha ddi fi cul tyi ns ys t emswi th
    sidee ffect sa ndmul tiplec a us alpa t
    hwa ys( muc hl e ssf ee dba ckl oops ).Si mi larl y
    ,
    ex pe rime n t
    si nc aus a la t
    tibut
    r ions howpe opl ete ndt oa ssumee a c he fe c t ha sas -in
    glec aus ea ndo ft
    e nc e aset he i
    rs ear chf ore xpl ana tionswhe nt hef irsts uffic ient
    ca us ei sf ou nd( s
    e et hed isc us sioni nPi ous1 993 ).
    Thehe uristicsweus et oj udg ec a usal r
    e l
    a t
    ionsl ea ds ys tema tica ll
    yt oc og nl tlVe
    ma pst ha ti gno ref ee d bac ks ,mul tiplei nterco nne ctions , nonline aritie s
    , timed el ays,
    andt heo the re leme ntsofdy na i cc
    m o mpl exity.Thec a usalf ieldo rme nta lmode lof
    thes ta geo nwhi cht hea ctio noc cur si sc r
    uc iali nf ra ml ngPe O Pl e'sj udgme nt so f
    ca us atio n( Ei nho rna ndHoga rth1 986) .Wi t
    hi nac a us alf ield, pe o pleus eva io
    r us
    cue st oc aus aliyi
    t n clud i
    ngt e mpo rala nds pa tilp
    a roxi ml t
    yO fc a us ea nde fe ct,t em-
    po ra lpr ec ede nc eo fc aus es ,c ova riation,a nds imi larityo fc aus ea nde fe ct. The se
    he ur isticsl e adt odi f ficultyl nc ompl exs ys t
    e mswhe rec aus ea nde ffe cta reof t
    e n
    dis tanti nt i
    mea nds pa c
    e ,whe rea ctionsha vemul tiplee fe cts,a ndwhe r ethede -
    laye da ndd istantc o ns eque nc esa redi fe rentfroma ndl e sss alie ntt ha npr oxi ma te
    efe cts( ors impl yu nknown) .Themu lt i
    plef eed bac ksi nc ompl exs ys te msc aus e
    ma nyva ia
    r ble stobec orre late dwi tho nea no the r,co nf ou nd i
    ngt het as ko fjudgi ng
    ca us e･ Howe v er,pe o plea repoo rj udg eso fc orr elation･ Ex peime
    r ntss howpe opl e
    ca ng ene ra l
    lyde tectl ine ar, pos itivec orrelationsa mo ngva ri
    abl e si fthe ya regl Ve n
    eno ug ht ia
    r lsa ndi ftheo utc omef e edba cki sa c cura tee noug h. Howe ve r,Weha ve
    gre atdi ff
    ic ultyi nthep res enc eofr ando me rror, nonl ine arlty,a ndne ga tivec orr ela-
    ti
    ons , oftenne verdi s cov er i
    ngt het uer
    r elations hip( Br ehme r1 98 0) .
    Af unda me ntalpr lnC ipl eofs yste m dyna mi c ss tatest hatt hes tr
    uc t ureo ft he
    sys tem gl Ve Sr iset oi tsbe ha vior .Howe ver,pe opl eha veas tro ngt ende nc yt oa t
    -
    tr
    ibut ethebe ha vioro fo the rst od ispos it
    ionalr at hert ha ns ituatio na lf actor s,t
    ha ti s
    ,
    toc ha racte ra nde spe c iallyc ha ract erf l
    awsr athe rt ha nthes ys temi nwhi cht he se
    pe opl ea rea ctl
    ng. Thet e nde nc yt obl amet hepe rsonr athe rt ha nt hes ys temi ss o
    strongps yc ho logistsc alli tt he" unda
    f me ntala t
    tribut ione rro r"( Ros s1 977) .I n
    compl exs ys temsd ife rentpe opl epl acedi nt hes ames truc t
    ur et endt obe ha vei n
    simi larwa ys .Whe nwea ttribu tebe ha viortope r son alitywel os es ightofhowt he
    st
    uc
    r tur eoft hes ys tems ha pe do urc hoi ces. Thea ttibut
    r ionofb e ha viort oi ndi vi d-
    ua lsa nds pe cialc ircums ta nc e sr athe rtha ns yst ems truc tur edi ve r tsoura ttent ion
    fromt hehi g hl eve ragepoi n tsWhe rer edes ignlngt hes ys temo rgove r
    nl ngPOl ic y
    canha ves igni fic
    ant , sus taine d, be ne ficialefe ct sonpe rfo rma nc e( Fo rre ster1 969,
    cha p. 6; Me adows1 98 2).Whe nwea ttri
    but ebe ha viort ope opler athe rt ha ns ys te m
    st
    r uc tur et hef わc usofma na g e me ntbe comess c apegoa tlnga ndbl amer a thert ha n
    Ch
    apt
    er1 Le
    aml
    ngl
    nan
    dab
    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 29

    t
    hedesignofo
    rga
    niz
    ati
    onsi
    nwhi
    chor
    dina
    rype
    opl
    eca
    nac
    hie
    vee
    xtr
    aor
    dina
    ry
    r
    esul
    ts.
    ll

    1.
    3.6 Er
    roneoushf
    erencesaboutDynami
    cs
    Eve ni fourc og nltlVema psOfc aus als t
    ruc t
    ur ewe repe r
    fe ct,l earnl ng,es pe cia ll
    y
    doubl e-loo pl ea rnlng,woul ds tillbedi f
    fic ult･Tous eame nt almode ltode signa
    ne ws trategyoror ga niz ationwemus tma kei nfe renc e sa boutt hec ons e que nc esof
    de cisionr ulest ha tha vene ve rbe ent r i
    e da ndf orwhi c hweha venoda t
    a. Tbdos o
    req uiresi ntuitives ol utionofhi g h- orde rnonl ine ardi fe rentile
    a qua tions ,at a skf ar
    e xc eedinghuma nc ogni tivec apa bi l
    itiesi na l
    lbutt hes i
    mpl e sts ys tems( Fo rr es ter
    1 971 a;Si mon1 98 2) .Inma nye xpe rime nt als tudi e s,inc ludi ngDi ehla ndSt e ma n
    (1 995)a ndSt e r
    ma n( 1 989a ),thepa rtici
    pa nt swe regi ve nc ompl e teknowl edgeof
    a l
    ls tructur alre l
    a ti
    ons hi psa ndpa rame ters,longw
    a it hpe rf
    e ct,c ompr e he nsive ,a nd
    imme diat eknowl edgeofa llva r i
    a bles ･Fur t
    he r,t hes ys temswe r es impl ee nough
    tha tthenumbe rofva riable stoc ons ide rwa ss ma ll. Ye tpe rfbm a ncewa spoo ra nd
    le arnlngWa sS lowI Poorpe rforma nc ei nthe set asksi sduet oouri na bilityt oma ke
    re asona bl einf erenc e sa boutt hedyna mi csoft hes ys tem de spl tePe rfecta ndc om-
    pl eteknowl edgeo ft hes ystems tr
    uc tur e.
    Pe opl eca nnots imul ateme nt allye vent hes i
    mpl estpos siblef eed ba cks ys te m,
    thef irst-orde rlin earpos iti
    vef eedba ckl oo p･12suc hpos itivef e edba c kpr oc e ssesa r
    e
    commonpl ace,f ro mt hec ompoundi ngofi nte restt ot hegr owt hofpopul ations .
    Wa ge naa ra ndSa ga ria( 1975)a ndWa gena a ra ndTi mme rs( 1978,1 979)s howe d
    tha tpe opl es i
    gni fica nt lyunde r
    e stima tee xpone nt ilg
    a rowt h, tendi ngt oe xtrapol a t
    e
    line arlyr athert ha ne xpone nti a
    lly. Us ingmo reda tapol ntSO rg ra phi ngt heda tadi d
    nothe lp,a ndma the ma tic altrainl ngdi dnoti mpr ovepe rforma nc e.
    Bounde dr ationa litys i
    mul t
    a ne o us l
    yc ons trainst hec ompl exltyOfourc ognl tlVe
    ma psa ndo ura bilityt ous et he mt oa ntlClpa tet hes ys te m dyna mi cs. Me nta lmod-
    elsi nwhi c hthewor ldi ss e ena sas eque nc eofe ve nt sa ndi nwhi chf eedba ck, non-
    line arlt
    y,t imede lays ,a nd mul t
    ipl ec ons e que nc esa rel a cking l ea dt opoor
    pe rforma ncewhe nthe see leme nt sofdyna mi cc ompl exityarepr es ent. Dys func tion
    inc ompl e xs yste msc ana ri sef romt heml SPe r CePt lOnOft hef eed ba cks t
    r uc tur eof
    thee nvironme nt ･Butr ic hme nta lmode lst ha tca pt ur et heses our ce sofc ompl e xity
    ca nnotbeus edr elia blyt ounde r standt hedyna mi cs IDys func t
    io ni nc ompl e xs ys-
    temsc ana risef rom f aultyme nt ls
    a imul a t
    ion-t heml SPe rCe Pt 1
    0nOff ee dba ck
    dynami cs.Thes et wodi fe re ntboundsonr ational it ymus tbot hbeove r comef or
    effT
    e cti
    vel eani
    r ngt OOC Cur ･Pe rfe ctme nta lmode lswi thoutas imul ationc apa bility
    yie l
    dl i
    ttlei nsig ht;ac a lculusf orr eliablei nf ere nc esa boutdyna mi csyi eldss ys-
    tema ti
    call ye rron eousr esul t
    swhe r_
    I appl iedt os impl isticmode ls.

    ll
    Repe
    nni
    ngandSter
    man(1999)s
    howhowthef
    undament
    alat
    t
    ib
    r ut
    ion?r
    ro
    rar
    oseina
    maj
    ormanuf
    act
    uri
    ngOr
    gani
    zat
    ion,hwa
    t rti
    ngth
    eire
    ff
    ort
    stoimpr
    oveo
    perat
    i
    onsan
    dprodu
    ct
    de
    vel
    opment
    ･
    12
    Thef
    irs
    t1
    0rd
    erli
    nea
    rpos
    iti
    veloo Sr
    pI e
    pre
    sent
    edbythedi
    fer
    ent
    ia
    lequa
    ti
    ondx/
    dt-gxan
    d
    yi
    el
    dspur
    eexpon
    ent
    ialg
    rowt
    h,x-x ｡ex
    p(g
    t);
    seecha
    p.8.
    3
    0 Pa
    rtIP
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    1.
    3,7 Unsci
    enti
    ficReasonhg:
    Judgmenta=≡rr
    orsandBiases
    Tolearnef
    fect
    ive
    lylnaworldofdynamicc
    ompl
    exltyandimper
    fec
    tinf
    or
    ma t
    ion
    peoplemustdevel
    opwhatDa vi
    sa ndHogar
    th(
    1992)c alH
    l i
    nsi
    ghtski
    ll
    s"-the
    ski
    llst
    hathel
    ppeoplel
    ean whenfeedba
    cki
    sambiguous:
    l
    T]hein
    ter
    pret
    at
    ionoffeedback...ne
    edstobeanact
    iveanddisci
    pli
    nedtas
    kgov-
    e
    rne
    db yther
    igoro
    usrulesofsci
    ent
    ifi
    cinf
    ere
    nce.Be
    li
    efsmu stbeact
    ive
    lychal
    -
    l
    eng
    e dbysee
    kingpossi
    bledis
    confi
    rmlngevi
    denc
    eanda s
    kingwh e
    theral
    te
    na
    r t
    ive
    b
    eli
    efscou
    ldnotacco
    untforthefac
    ts(empha
    sisi
    nori
    ginal
    ).
    Unf ortuna t
    ely,pe opl earepoori nt uitives cient ists, ge ne rall
    yf ailingt or e asoni na c-
    co rda nc ewi ththepr lnC iple sofs c i
    e ntif i
    cme thod. Fo re xa mpl e ,pe opl edonotge n-
    er ates uf f
    icienta lte rnativee xpl a nationsorc ons idere noughr iva lhypot hes es.
    Pe opl ege ne ral
    lydonota de qua telyc ont rolf orc onf o undi ngva riableswhe nthe y
    expl oreanove le nvi ronme nt.Pe opl e'sj udgme nt sa res trongl ya fe c t
    e dbyt he
    fra mei nwhi cht hei nf orma tioni spr e sent ed, e ve nwhe ntheob je ctivei nforma tion
    isunc ha nge d.Pe opl es ufe rf r om ove r
    c onf ide nc ei nt he irj udgme nts( unde r-
    es ti
    ma tingunc erta inty) ,wi shf ult hi nki ng( a sses si ngdes ire dout comesa smor e
    like lytha nundes ire dout c omes ) ,andt hei llus ionofc o ntrol( belie vingonec a npr e-
    dic tori nf
    lue ncet heout c omeofr a ndom e ve nt s) .Pe oplevi ol atebas i
    cr ulesof
    pr oba bil it
    y,donotunde rsta ndba sics tati
    stic alc onc eptss uc hasr e gres si
    ont ot he
    me an,a nddonotupda tebe lief sa c cor dingt oBa ye s 'rule. Me mor yi sdi stortedby
    hinds i
    ght ,thea va ilabilitya nds alienc eofe xa mpl e s,andt hedes i
    r a
    bi lit
    yofout -
    come s.Ands oon.Hoga rth( 198 7)di s cusse s30di f f
    e rentbi as esa nde rrorsdoc u-

    me ntedi nde ci
    sion一 ma kingr esea rc ha ndpr ovi de sagoodgui det ot hel it
    e r
    atur e
    (se ea lsoKa hne ma n,Sl ovi c, andTve rsky1 98 2). Ther ese archc onvi nc inglys hows
    tha ts cient i
    stsandpr ofe ssiona ls ,notonl y" ordi na r y"pe opl e,s uf ferfr om ma nyof
    the sej udgme ntalbi ases .
    Amo ngt hef ailuresofs cie ntificr e asoni ngmos tini ic
    m altol ea rningi sthet en-
    de nc yt os eeke vide nc ec ons istentwi thc urre ntbe lie fsr athert ha npot ent ialdiscon-

    firma t
    ion( Einhom a ndHoga rth1 978･ , Kla yma na ndHa1 98 7) .I naf amouss er
    i es
    ofe xpe rime nts,Wa sona ndc olle ague spr ese nt edpe opl eta sksoft hes or tshowni n
    Figur e1 1 13･1
    3Be forec ontinul ng, tryt hec ha lle nges howni nt hef igure･

    Hypot
    hesi
    sTest
    ing
    Youar
    eshownthesef
    ourcar
    ds.Eac
    hc a
    rdhasal
    ett
    erono nesi
    deandanumbe ron
    t
    heot
    her.Whati
    sthesmal
    les
    tnumberofcar
    dsyoushouldtur
    novertote
    stt
    her ul
    e
    t
    hatc
    ardswit
    hvowe l
    sononesidehaveeve
    nnumbe rsonthereve
    rse?Whicha r
    e
    t
    hey?

    E
    ]㊦E
    ]E]
    1
    3
    Thes
    umma
    ryo
    fth
    eWa
    sont
    es
    tisd
    rawnf
    romP
    lou
    s(1993,
    cha
    p.20)
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er1 Le
    arn
    lngl
    nan
    dab
    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 31

    Inoneve rsionyo ua res hownones ideoff ourc ards ,e a


    c hwi thal e tteronone
    sidea ndanumbe ron血eot he r,s ayE, K, 4, and7. Youa ret ol dt ha tirac a rdha sa
    vowe loni t,the nitha sa ne ve nnumbe ront heot he rs i
    de . Youmus tt he ni de nti fy
    thes ma lle stseto fc a rdst ot urnove rt os e ei fthepr opos e dr ul ei sc orre c t.
    Wa sona ndJ ohns on- La ird( 1972)f oundt ha tt heva stma jori tyofs ub je ctss e-
    le ctedEo rEa nd4a s仙ea ns we rs.Les st ha n4% ga vet hec or re cta nswe r :Ea nd7.
    Ther ul eha sthel og ic lf
    a o rml fp,t he nq.Fa lsificationr equi reso bs e rva tionof
    pandnot -q.Theonl yc ards howi ngpi st heEc a rd,s oi tmus tbee xa mi ne d( the
    ba ckof山eEc ardmus tbea ne ve nnumbe rfort her ul et ohol d).Theonl yc ard
    showi ngnot -qi sthe7,s oi tt oomus tbee xa mi ned. TheKa nd4c a rdsa rei r re le-
    va nt.Ye tpe opl ec ons i stentlyc hoos et hec ards howl ngq,aC hoi cet ha tc anonl y
    pr ovi deda tac ons istentwi tht het he or y,butc annott es
    ti t;ift heba ckoft he4i sa
    c ons ona nt ,youha vel e ane dnot hing,s inc et her ulei ssilenta boutt henumbe rsa s-
    soc iate dwi thc onsona nt s. Expe rime nt ss howt het e nde nc yt os eekc onf irma t
    i oni s
    robus ti nt hef a ceo ft ra i
    nl ngi nlogl C , ma the ma tics, ands tati
    s tics. Se arc hs trate gleS
    tha tfoc usonl yo nc onf ima
    r tionofc ur re ntbe li
    e fss lowt hege ne ra ti
    ona ndr e cogn1 -
    tionofa noma li est ha tmi ghtl eadt ol e anl
    r ng, Pa rticul a
    rl ydo ubl el l
    oo pl eml
    a ng.
    Somea rguet ha twhi lepe o plee rri na pplyi ngt hepr l
    nC ipl esofl ogl C,a tl ea st
    pe opl ea rer ation alint hes e ns etha tt he ya ppr ec iatethede sir
    a bi li
    tyofs ci enti f
    ice xI
    pl ana tion.Unf o rt
    una tely ,thes it
    ua t
    ioni sf a rwor se. Ther atio na l,sc i
    e nt ificwo lrd -

    vi ewi sar ecentde ve lo pme nti nhuma nhi stor ya ndr e ma insr a re.Ma nype opl e
    pl acet he irf ai
    thi nwha tDos t
    oye vs ky' sGr a ndl nqul Sit
    orc alle d" Ⅰ血- acle, mys te ry,
    anda uthor iy,
    t =f ore xa mpl e,a s t
    rol ogy, ESP,UFOs ,crea ti
    oni sm,c ons pl r aCyt he o-

    riesofhi story ,cha nne lingofpas tl ives ,c ultle ade rspr omi singAr ma ge ddon,a nd
    El vュss ight ings .Thepe rs i
    st enc eofs uc hs upe rstiti
    ousbe liefsde pe ndspa rtlyon血e
    bi ast owa rdsc on firmi nge vi denc e.Wa deBoggs ,fo rme rBos tonRe dSoxba tting
    cha mpi on,a t
    eC h i
    c ke ne ver yda yf orye ar sbe ca useheonc eha dapa rticul a rlygood
    da ya tthepl atea fteradi nne rofl emonc hi cken( Sha ughne s sy1 987) .Dur ing血i s
    timeBoggswonf iveba tti
    ngc ha mpi ons hips ,pr ovl ngt hewi sdom oft he" chi cke n
    the ory. HCons ide rthec ont inue dpopul arityofa strol ogy,ps yc hi cs,a nde c onomi c
    for eca ste rs ,whopubl icizet he i
    rs uc c es sesa nds uppr esst he ir( mor enume rous )
    fa i
    lur es .Re me mbe rt ha tthe40t hpr es ide ntoft heUni tedSt atesa ndf irs tl adyma n-
    age da fa irso fs tat
    eo nt heba si
    sofa s trol ogy( Robi nson1 988 )･ Andi two rke d: He
    wa sre e lec tedi nal a nds l
    ide.
    Suc hl unac ya side , ther ea rede epe ra ndmor edi s t
    urbi ngr ea sonsf ort hepr e va -
    lenc eoft hes el earnlngf ailur esa ndt hes upe rsti
    tionst he ye ng e nde r･ Huma nbe ings
    ar emor et ha nc ognl tlVei nf o r
    ma tionpr oc essor s.Weha veade e pne e df ore mo-
    tiona la nds plrlt
    ua ls us tena nc e. Butf rom Cope rnica nhe l i
    oc ent rismt hr oughe vol u-
    tion, re lativl t
    y, quant u mme cha nic s, andG6de lianunc ertainty, s c
    i enc eha ss trippe d
    awa ya nc ie nta ndc omf or tingbe lie fspl a cinghuma nl t
    ya tthec e nterofar ationa l
    uni ve rsede si
    gne df o rusbyas upr emea uthor ity.Forma nype opl es cient if i
    c
    thoughtl ea dsnott oe nlight e nme nta nde mpowe rme ntbutt oe xistenti ala ngs ta nd
    thea bs ur dityofhuma ni ns lgni fica nc ei na ni nc ompr ehe ns ibl yva stuni ve rs e･
    Ot he rsbe lieves cie nc ea ndt echnol ogywe ret hes hoc kt roopsf ort het riumphof
    ma t
    e rialis ma ndi ns t
    ume
    r nt alism ove rt hes a cr
    e da nds pir i
    tua l. The sea nt iscie ntif i
    c
    re actionsa repowe rfulf orc es .Inma nywa yst he ya rei mpor ta ntt ruths ･ The yha ve
    ledt oma nyoft hemos tp rof oundwor ksofa rta ndl iteratur e･Butt he yc a na lsol e ad
    tomi ndl es sne w- ag eps yc hoba bbl e.
    32 P
    art
    iPe
    rsp
    ect
    i
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    Ther e
    a dershoul dnotc onc l
    udefromt hi sdis c
    us s
    iont ha tIa mana ivede fender
    ofs c i
    e ncea sitispr a ct
    icednora napol ogis tforther ea la ndc ont inulngda ma ge
    donet ot hee nvironme nta ndt oourcul t
    ur al
    , mor al,ands pi r
    ituall i
    vesi nt hena me
    ofr ationa l
    itya ndpr ogress.Ont hecont r
    a r
    y ,Iha ves tr
    es sedt her ese archs howi ng
    tha tsc ient
    i st
    sa reof te
    na spr onetot hej udgme ntale 汀O rSa ndbi as esdi scussed
    abovea slaype ople. Itispr ec i
    sel
    ybe caus es cienti
    stsares ubje cttot hes amec og-
    nitivel imi tati
    onsa ndmor alfail
    uresa so the r
    st hatwee xpe riencea bomi na t
    ions
    suc ha st heUSgove mme ntf undedrese arc
    hi nwhi chpl utoni um wa sl njeC t
    edi nto
    se r
    ious lyillpa ti
    e nts,a ndi nwhi chradi oactivec alcium wa sfedt or e tarde dc hil
    -
    dr en,a llwi t
    houtt he irk
    n owl edgeorc ons ent( Ma nn1 994) ･Ac e ntralpr inc i
    pleof
    sys tem dyna micsi st oe xami nei s
    sues血. om mul ti
    plepe r spe cti
    ves ;toe xpa ndt he
    bo unda ie
    r sofourme ntalmode l
    stocons iderthel ong-termc ons eque nce sa nd" side
    effec t
    s"ofoura ctions ,includingthei
    re nvir onme ntal,cultur al,andmo rali mpl i
    ca-
    tions( Me adows ,Ri cha rdson,a ndBruc kma nn1 982).

    1.
    3.8 Def
    ensi
    veRouti
    nesandhter
    per
    sonai
    E
    mpediment
    s†oLear
    ning
    Leaningbygr oups,
    whe thersyst
    emd ynamicsisusedornot,c
    anbet hwa r
    tedeven
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    pler elyon,of tenunknowl ngly,t ointera ctwitha ndi nterprettheirexpe r
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    unt estedi nferencess ee ml ikefa cts,anda dvocateourpos iti
    onswhi leappe arl
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    Wef ailtodi stinguishbe t
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    De fens i
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    andr espec tforot hers.Cons i
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    Comp
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    Bute
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    Creat
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    lear
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    1.
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    lnther el wor
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    enimpl eme ntedi mpe rf
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    hei mpleme ntat
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    playlngbya gentsthr oughoutas yst
    em.Obvi o
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    1ngWe redi st
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    ly,i nther ea lwor ldofi rr
    eversiblea c
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    ma intainpe rforma nceof t
    enove rr
    idesthene edtol e a
    rnbys uppr essi
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    r venthought he ymi ghtyieldgr ea
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    lh
    4 REQUJ
    REMENTSFORSuccESSFULLEARNMG 弓
    N
    CoMPLEXSYsTEMS
    Wef acegr avei mpedime nt
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    a ngl nCOmPlexsystemsl ikeana ti
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    yt oma kecor rectinfer
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    nonl i
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    34 P
    art
    I P
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    1.
    4.1 h provi
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    Wha tthena r
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    1-14Showshowt hel earningf ee dbackswoul dope ratewhe na l
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    edbyt he
    useofv i
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    lwo rlds(t
    het em i
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    els
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    S, conduc texpe r
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    れanceGa mede scri
    be dins ection2. 4,alongwi thr ole-pl
    ay/c omput erhybr idssuc h

    FI GURE1- 14
    1deal i
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    Sirat
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    asFi shBa nks ,Ltd･ (Me adows ,Fi dda ma n, andSha nno n1 993) ･ Ma nyoft het o ols
    ofs ys t
    e md yna micsa rede sign edt ohe lpyo ud eve lo pus eful ,re l
    ia ble ,
    a nde ffe cti
    v e
    mod elst os ervea svi rtua lwo r
    ldst oa i
    dl e arnlnga ndpo li
    c yde s
    ign.
    Ⅵr 山a lwor ldsha ves eve ralv irt
    ue s. Fir st
    ,t he ypr ovidel ow- cos tla bo rato ries
    forl earnl ng. Th evi rtua lwo rlda ll
    o wst imea nds pa c et obec ompr essedo rdi lated.
    Ac tionsc a nber epe atedu nde rthes ameo rd i
    ffe rentc ond itions .Onec ans topt he
    ac t
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    f ct.De cisio nst hata reda nge ro us, inf ea sible ,O rune t
    hi c
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    d. Thusc on tro llede xpe rime ntati
    o nbe co me s
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    ma ticallyr educ ed.Int her ealwo rldthei rre versibi lityo fma nya c io
    t nsa ndt hene e d
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    pe ime
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    i " .Int hev i
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    wo rldyouc ant rystrate gie sthatyo us uspe c twi llle adt opo orpe rf orma nc eo re ve n
    (simul at ed)c atast
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    mo reabouti tsstructur ea ndd ynami c stha ni nc reme ntla
    a d jus tme nt stos uc ce ssful
    strategle S.Vi rtualwo rldsa ret heonl ypr actica lwa yt oe xpe r ienc ec a tastro phe
    ina d vanc eoft her ea lthi ng.Thusag rea tde a lo ft het i
    mepi l
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    tionss uc ha se ngi nef ailureo re xpl osiv e
    de compr e ssion.
    Virtua lwo rldsp rovi d ehi gh-qua lityo ut comef e e dba ck. Int hePe opl eEx p71
    e SS
    Manage me ntFl i
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    mi la rs ys t
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    d ba ck. Ina na ftemoo nonec anga i nye arsOfs imul ate de xpe ri -

    en ce.Thed e greeo fra nd omva r


    ia t
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    ua l
    wo rldsof fert hel ene
    a rg reaterc o ntrolo ve rs t
    ra tegy ,le adt omo rec ons iste ntde ci-
    sionma king, andde teri mpl eme nta ti
    o nfa il
    u rea ndga mepl aylng. Inc ont ra sttot he
    realwo rld, whi ch,likeabl ackbox, ha sapo orlyr e so lve ds tuc
    r tur e,virtua lwo rl
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    Ⅵr tua lwor ldsf orl e aml nga ndt ra i
    nl nga reC OmmOn pla cei nt hemi li
    ta ry,l n
    pilott r
    a inlng, 1
    npowe rpl anto pe rati
    ons , andi nma nyot he rr e alt i
    met a skswhe re
    hu ma no pe ratorsint erac twi thc o mpl ext e chni cals ys tems .Vi rtua lwo rldsa rea l
    s o
    commo ni npr o fessi
    o nss uc ha sa rchitectur ea nde ngl ne enngt ha tle ndt he ms elve s
    tot heus eofph ysicalmode ls(Sc h6n1 98 3 ).Theus eofvi rtua lwo rldsi nma n-
    age ri
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    io nc ompr es sesint omi n uteso rho ursd yna mi cse x-
    tendingove rye arso rde c ade s,ismo rer e ce nta ndl e s swi de lya do pted･ Ye tt he se
    arep rec ise lyt hes ett
    ln g SWh ered yna micc o mp l
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    ic,whe re
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    r beda b ov ear el east efe c tive, andwhe rethes ta ke sa re
    h
    igh
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    1.
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    tt
    all
    sofVi
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    heye ngagepeoplei
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    e-
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    ele
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    36 P
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    Obvi ous ly, whi l


    et hev ir 山a lwor lde na ble sc on t
    rol l
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    if icme tho da nda wa rene ss
    o ft hepi tfal
    lsi nt hed e signa ndi nte rpr eta t
    io no fe xpe rime nts .Ac o mmo nlyob-
    se rve dbe ha vio ra mongmo d eler sa ndi nwo rks ho psus i
    ngma na g eme n tfli ghts im-
    ul ator si st hevi de oga mes ynd ro mei nwhi c hpe opl epl ayt o omuc ha ndt hi nkt oo
    littl
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    f cto nt heou tc omeofas imu la tion, ide n-
    tifydi s cre panc ie sbe twe e nt heo ut come sa ndt he ire x pec tatio ns ,f ormul atehy-
    pot he se st oe x pl ainthed iscre pa nc ies, andt he nde vi see xpe rime n tst odi scrimi na te
    a mo ngt hec ompe tl
    nga ltema tive s .Efe ctivel e am1 ngus ingS ys temd y na mi cswi l
    l
    o ftenr equl ret rain ingf o rpa rtlCIPa ntSi ns c i
    e ntificme tho d. Pr oto co lsf o rtheus eo f
    simul a tionss ho ul dbes truc ture dt oe nc o ur agepr ope rpr oce du re ,suc ha ske eping
    labo ra to ryno t
    e bo o ks,e xpl icitlyf or mul atingh ypo these sa ndpr e sent lngt he mt ot he
    gr ou p,a nds oo n.
    De fe nsiver o ut
    ine sa ndg rou pt hi nkc ano pe r atei nt hel e aml ngl abo rato ryJ ust
    a sint her e alo rga nizatio n. Ind e e d, pr otoc o lsf o re fe c t
    ivel earnl ngl nV i
    r tua lwo rlds
    suc ha spubl ict e sti
    ngO fhy pothe se s,a c co unt a bi l
    ity,a ndc o mpa r isono fd ife re nt
    strate gl eSC anbehi g hlyt h rea te nlng,i nduc ingde fens iver ea ctio nst ha tp rev ent
    lea i ng(
    m Isaac sa ndSe nge1 992 ) .Theus eofs ys t
    e md yna ic
    m st os timul atel ea rn-
    1ngl nO rga niz atio nso fte nr eq ulr eSme mbe rsoft hec lie ntt eamt os pe ndt imea d-
    d resslngt he i
    ro wnde fe ns ivebe ha vio r.Ma na ge rsuna ccus to me dt odi s cipline d
    sc ientificr e aso ninga nda no pe n, tus
    r ti
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    a i
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    l
    ha vet obui l
    dt he seba sics ki llsbe f oreas yste md yna mi csmode l10 ri nd e ed,a ny
    mode l-c anp roveus e ful. De ve lo pl ngt he ses killst ake se f
    fo rta n dpr ac tice .
    St ill,se t
    tlngSWi thh ighd yna i cc
    m ompl exl tyC anga r blet her ele
    f ctivec onve r-
    sa ti
    o nbe t
    we ent hel earne ra ndt hes itua tion. Lo ngt l
    med e
    la ys ,C aus e sa nde fe cts
    tha ta red istanti nt i
    mea nds pa ce ,a n dt hec onf o und i
    nge fe ctso fmul tipleno li
    n n-
    e arf e edba cksc ans lo wl e aml nge ve nf o rpe o pl ewi thgo odi ns ighta ndg r
    o up
    pr oce sss kills.Le arnlngl nVi rtua lwor ldsc a nbea cc eler a
    te dwhe nt hemod eling
    pr oce ssa lsohe lpspe opl el e anho wt or e pr ese ntc ompl exf e ed ba cks truc tur esa nd
    und e rsta ndt he iri mpl ica tionsr a the rt ha ns impl ypr e s
    e ntlngt her e sult so fa na na ly-
    sis .Tol e ani ndyna mi ca llyc ompl e xs ys temspa rtlCIPa ntSmus tha v ec o nf i
    d enc e
    tha tthemod e li sa na ppr o pna ter e pre se nt ationoft hepr obl e mt he yc area bo ut｡
    The ymus tbe lievei tmi mi c st her e leva ntpa rtsoft her e alwor ldwe lle no ug ht ha t
    thel e ssonse me rgingf ro mt hev irtua lwo rlda p plyt other ea lo ne . Tode v elo ps uc h
    conf ide nc ethevi rtualwo rldmus tbea no pe nboxwhos ea ssumpt io nsC a nbei n-
    spe cte d, Criticiz ed, andc ha ng ed. Tbl ea n, p∬t lC lpa ntSmus tbe c omemod e l
    e rs,no t
    me r
    e lypl aye rsi nas imul a tionga me .
    Inpr ac t
    ice ,e ffectivel e arni ngf ro m mode lsoc c ursbe s t,a ndpe rha pso nl y,
    whe nt hede c isio nma ke rspa rtlC lpa tea c tive lyi nt hede velo pme nto ft hemod e l
    .
    Mod elinghe rei nc lude st hee lic itatio noft hepa rtic l
    pa ntS 'exi stlngme nt almod els,
    inc l
    ud inga rti
    c u latingt hei ssue s( pr obl ems tru ctur ing) ,se lectingt hemod elbo und-
    arya ndt imeho rizon,a ndma ppl ngt hec aus als tructur eoft her e l
    e va nts ys t
    e m.
    Al ongwi tht ec hni que sde ve lo pe di ns ys te m dyna mi cs, ma nyt o ol sa ndp ro tocol s
    forg r oupmode l-buildi nga reno wa va ila ble ,i nc ludi ngc a us all oo pd i agra ms ,
    pol i
    c ys t r
    uc tur edi agra ms ,i nte ra ctivec omput erma ppl ng,a ndva rio usp r oble m
    struc turi nga nds o 氏s yste msme tho ds( s ee, e.g. , Che ckla nd1 981 ; Ede n, Jo ne sa nd
    Cha
    pte
    r1 Le
    aml
    ngl
    nanda
    boutCompl
    exSys
    tems 37

    Si
    ms1 983;La
    ne1994;Morec
    rof
    t1982;Morec
    rof
    tandSt
    erma
    n1 99
    4;Reaga
    n-

    Ci
    rinc
    ioneetal･1
    991;Richmond 1
    987,1993;Rose
    nhe
    ad1 98
    9;Seng
    ea nd
    St
    erman1992;a
    ndWo l
    st
    enhol
    me1990).

    1,
    4,3 WhySj
    muZ
    ati
    ont
    sEssent
    はI
    El ic i
    tinga ndma ppi ngt hepa rticIPan tS'me n t
    a lmode ls,whi lene cessa ry,isf arf ro m
    suf fic ient. Asd isc us seda bove , t
    het empo ra la nds pa ti
    albo unda riesofo u rme nt al
    mode lst endt ob et oona rro w. The ya red yna mi callyd efi
    c ient , omi ttingf ee dba cks ,
    timede lays , accumul ations ,andno nl inear iti
    e s.Theg reatv ir tueo fma nyp ro toco l
    s
    a ndt ool sf ore l
    icitationi st he irabi l
    ityt oi mpr o veo urmode lsbye nc o uragl ngPe o-
    pl et oi dent ifyt hee leme ntso fdy na mi cc o mpl exl tyno rma llya bse ntf romme n ta
    l
    mode ls.Howe ve r,mos tpr o blems tructur lngme thodsyi e ldq ua litativemo de l
    s
    showi ngc a us alre l
    a ti
    o nshi psbu to mi ttl
    ngt hepa rame t
    ers ,func ti
    o na lfo rms , exte
    - r
    na li n put s,a ndi nitialc o nd it
    io nsne ede dt of ullys pe c
    ifya ndt estthemod el.Re -
    ga rd le sso ft hef ormoft hemo delo rte chni qu eus ed, ther esul to fthee l
    icit
    a tiona nd
    ma ppi ngpr o cessi sne ve rmo ret hanas eto fc aus ala tt
    ributi ons , i
    ni tialhy po t
    he ses
    a bo utt hes truc t
    u reo fas ys tem, whi chmus tthe nbet ested.
    Simul a t
    i oni st heo nlypr a ct
    ic alwa yt ot estt he semode ls ･Thec o mpl e xltyOf
    ou rme nta lmod e lsva stl
    ye xc eedso u rc apa c ityt Ounde rstandt he iri mpl ic ations .
    T ypi c lc
    a onc eptua lmode lss ucha sthet ypeo fc a us aldiag rams howni nFi g u rel 16
    ar et ool argea ndc o mpl e xt os imu l
    ateme nt ally.Wi thouts imul ati
    on, eve nt hebe s
    t
    c onc e pt ualmod e lsc ano nlybet esteda ndi mpr ove dbyr elyi ngo nt hel e arn l
    ng
    fT
    e ed ba c kthr oug ht her e alwo rld. Asweha ves een, thisf eedba cki sve rys lo wa nd
    of tenr e nde re dine fe ctivebyd yna mi cc o mpl exlty ,ti
    mede la ys,i na d equa tea nd
    ambi guousf e edba c k,poo rr ea soningS kills ,de fe nsiver e act ions ,a ndt hec ostsof
    ex pe rime nt ation. Int he sec ircums tanc ess imul ationbe come st heo nl yr eliabl ewa y
    tot e sthypo the sesa nde va lua tethel ike lye fe ctsofpol i
    c ies.
    So mes c holar sa rg uet ha tf orma lmod e li
    ngc ana tbe s tpr ovideq uant itative
    pr ec isio nwi thinpr eexi stl
    ngP r oblemde fini t
    io nsbutc anno tl e adt of unda me ntally
    ne wc o nce ptions( forva riousvi ewss eeDr e yfusa ndDr e yfus1 986a ndt hed is
    c usI
    sic-ni nLa ne1 99 4) .Ont hec ontrary ,f o
    r ma li zingqua l
    itativemode lsa ndt e sti
    ng
    the mv ias imul ationo ftenl e adst or adi calc ha nge si nthewa yweun de rstan dr ea レ
    1ty.Si mul a tions pe edsa nds trengt he nst hel ea rningf eedba cks .Di screpa nc ies
    be twe e nf o rma la ndme nt almode lss ti
    mul a t
    ei mpr ove me nt si nbo th,i nc luding
    cha nge sinba si
    ca ssumpt lOnSS ucha smo de l bo unda ry,timeho ri
    z on, andd yna mi c
    hy po the ses( seeFo r r
    e ster1 98 5a ndHo me r1 996f o rphi los o phya nde xa mpl es )
    ･
    Wi thoutt hed isci
    pl inea ndc ons trainti mpos e dbyt her lgO rO uSt e Stlnge na bl edby
    simul a tion, itbe c ome sa llto oe asyf わrme nta lmode lstobed rivenbyi deol og yo r
    un co ns c iousbi as.
    So mea rguet ha tf orma li
    z ationf orc est hemode l
    e rtoo mi timpo r tanta spe ctso f
    thepr obl emt op re servet r actabilitya nde na blet he o re
    mst obepr ove do rt oo mi t
    so ftva riabl esf T
    orwhi chnon ume r ic
    a lda tae xist.The sea rei nde edda nge rs.Thel it
    -
    erat ureoft hes ocia lsc i
    e nc esi sre pletewi thmode lsi nwhi che lega n tthe ore msa re
    de rive df r
    omq ue stiona blea x ioms ,whe res impl icitydo mi na te sut i
    lity ,andwhe re
    va riabl e sknownt obei mpo rta nta r
    eI gno re dbe ca useda tat oe sti
    ma tepa rame ters
    areuna vai lable.Sys t
    e m dy na mi cswa sde signe ds pe cificallyt oove rcomet he se
    38 P
    art
    IPe
    rsp
    ect
    i
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    limi tationsa ndf rom t hebe ginnl ngS tres sedt hede ve lopme ntofus ef ulmode ls;
    mode l
    sunc ons trainedbyt hede ma ndsofa na l
    yt i
    ct r
    ac tabi l
    ity,ba sedonr e alis
    t i
    ca s-
    sumpt ionsa bo uthuma nbe ha vio r,gr ounde dinf ields t
    udyofde cisionma king,a nd
    ut i
    lizlngt hef ull rangeofa va ilabl eda ta, notonl ynume ric alda ta,tos pe cifya nde -s
    tima ter ela ti
    ons hips( seeFo r reste r1 961 ,1 98 7) ･
    Somepe o pledon' tbe li
    e vet ha tmode lsofhuma nbe ha viorc anbede velo pe d.
    Si mul aio
    t nsofna turala ndt ec hni ca ls ys temss ucha st hec lima t
    eora noi lref i
    ne ry
    ar eba se donwel l -unde r s
    toodl awsofphys ics,but ,itisa rgue d,the rea renoc om-
    pa rablyr e liablel awsofhuma nbe ha vior .Thi svi ewove restima tesourunde r
    s t
    a nd-
    1ngOfna turea ndunde re stima test her egul ariti
    esi nhuma nde ci
    si onma king. As
    Ke nne t
    hBoul di ngpol ntSOut , HAnyt hi ngt ha te xist
    sispos si
    ble･MYouwi lls eema ny
    exa mpl esofmode lsofhuma ns ys te mst hr oughoutt hi sbook( s
    e ea lsot hemode ls
    inLe vinea ndFi tzgerald1 992; Robe rts1 978; La ngleye ta l･198 7;St e ma n1 985a;
    Home r1 985;a ndma nyoft hemode lsc itedi nSa st
    rya ndSt ema n1 993) .
    Isitpos sibl et ole arne fe c t
    ive lyi nc ompl e xsettingsWi t
    ho uts imul ation?Ca n
    theus eofpr obl e ms truc t
    ur lngme thods ,elicitati
    ont e chni ques ,andot he rqua lit
    a -
    tives ys temsme thodsove rcomet hei mpe dime ntstole arni ng?I fintui tioni sde ve l-
    ope dhi ghl ye no ugh,i fs ys te mst hi nki ngl Sinc orpor atedi npr ecol legee duca tion
    ea rlye nough,o ri fwea ret a ughthow t or ec ognlZeaS etOfH sys t
    e ma rche type s H
    (Se nge1 990) ,wi llwebea bl et oi mpr oveouri ntuitiona boutc ompl e xdyna mi cs
    enought or ende rs imul ationunne c es sary?
    Thea ns we ri sclea r
    lyno. Iti st ruet ha tsys temsthi nki ngt echni ques , i
    nc ludi ng
    sys tem dyna mi c sa ndqua li
    t ativeme thodss uc ha ss of ts ys t
    emsa na lys is,C a ne n-
    ha nc eouri ntui tiona boutc ompl exs itua tions,J ustass tudyi ngphys icsca ni mpr ove
    ouri ntui t
    iona boutt hena tura lwor ld.14AsWol s t
    enhol me( 1 990)a rgue s ,qua l
    itative
    sys temst ool ss houl dbema dewi de lya va ilables otha tt hos ewi thl i
    mi tedma the一
    ma ti
    c alba c kgr o undc anbe ne f
    itf rom t he m.Ia m as t
    r onga dvoc atef ort hei ntro-
    duc t
    ionofs ys te m dyna mi c sa ndr ela tedme thodsa ta llle velsoft hee duca ti
    ona l
    sys tem. Ye teve ni fwea llbe ga ns eriouss t
    udyofphys icsi nki nde rga rt
    e na ndc on-
    tinue di tthr oughaPh. D. ,iti sl udi c roust os ugges ttha twec oul dpr edic tthet r ack
    ofahur ric aneorunde rst
    a ndbyi nt uitiona l
    onewha tha ppe nswhe nt woga l axies
    col li
    de.Ma nyhuma ns yste msa rea tl e asta sc ompl e x･Eve ni fc hi ldre nl ea rnt o
    thinki ns ys temst er
    ms - agoa llbe lie vei svi tallyImpor tant-i twi l
    ls t
    illbene c -
    es saryt ode ve lo pf orma lmode ls,s ol ve dbys imul a
    tion,t ol earna bouts uchs ys -
    tems .
    Mos timport
    ant,whenexperi
    me ntationinrea
    lsystemsisinfeasi
    ble,
    simulat
    ion
    becomesthema in,andpe r
    hapstheonl y,wa yyouc andisco
    ve rforyoursel
    fhow
    complexsyste
    mswor k.Thealtenativei
    r sr
    otelearnl
    ngba sedont heauthori
    tyof
    thetea
    cherandtextbook,amethodtha tdull
    screat
    ivlt
    ya ndst
    untsthedevelopment
    oft
    hes cie
    nti
    fi
    cr easonl
    ngSkil
    lsneede dt ol
    earnaboutco mpl
    e xi
    ty.

    14
    suchknowledgeofbasi
    cph y
    sic
    sisdesp
    erate
    lyneeded
    .Wh enask
    edtheques
    ti
    onHIfapenis
    dr
    oppedonthemoon ,
    willi
    t(a)noata
    wa y;(
    b)fl
    oatwh e
    reiti
    s;(C
    )fal
    ltot
    hesurf
    aceoft
    he
    moonH48o
    ? utof168St
    u d
    e nt
    sinphys
    icscou
    rsesati
    owaS ta
    teUniver
    sl
    tygav
    eincorr
    ecta
    nswer
    s･
    Ty
    pica
    l s
    tud
    entexpla
    nati
    onswe r
    e"Theg r
    avl
    tyOfthemo o
    nc a
    nb esidt
    a obeneli
    g gi
    bl
    e"and"The
    moon'
    sav a
    cuum,ther
    eisn oext
    ena
    r lforc
    eonthep e
    n･Theref
    oreit
    il
    w llo
    fatwhereiti
    s.
    "(Par
    te
    e,
    pe
    rso
    nalcommun i
    cati
    on,1992)
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er1 Le
    arn
    ingl
    nan
    dab
    out
    Comp
    lexS
    yst
    ems 39

    Thei mpl i
    cati
    onsf ort
    hisbooka recle
    ar.Sys t
    em dynami csisnotas pecta
    tor
    sport:Thr oughoutthebookIha vetr
    iedtoe ncouragethea cti
    vepa r
    tic
    lpati
    onof
    you,t here ader
    ･Youwi l
    lfi
    ndCha lle
    ngesi neachc hapter
    -exa mplesforyout o
    conside randwo rkthroughyoursel
    f,suc
    ha sthec hickenande ggcausalloopdia-
    grami nFigure1 -
    6a ndtheWas oncardpuz zl
    ei nFigureト1 3.Someoft heseare
    fol
    lowe dbyas uggestedres
    ponse.Othersarenot.Asyouwo rkthr
    ought hebook,
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    mpl es.Buil
    dthemode ls･
    Expe ri
    me ntwi t
    hthe m.Applyyours kil
    ls
    tone wpr oblemsa ndne wiss
    ues･And,mos tofall,havefun･15

    1.
    5 SuMMARY
    Compl exdyna mics ys t
    e mspr es entmul t
    ipleba rri
    erst ol e arnlng.Thec hal l
    e ngeof
    betterlngt hewa ywel eana boutt he ses ys t
    e msi sitse lfac l
    a ssi
    cs ystemspr oble m.
    Sys tem dyna mi csi sapowe rfulme thodt oga lnus efuli nsightintos itua tionsof
    dyna mi cc ompl exltya ndpol ic yr esistanc e.I tisinc rea s
    lngl yus edt odes ignmor e
    succ ess fulpol i
    cie sinc ompa niesa ndpubl icpol icys e tt
    lngS .Howe ve r,noone
    me thodi sapa nac ea.Ove r
    coml ngt heba rr
    ie rstol earnl ngr equlr
    e SaS ynt hesisof
    ma ny me thodsa nd d iscipline s,f rom ma thema ticsa nd c omput ers cienc et o
    psyc hol ogya ndor ganizationalt heo ry. The or et
    icals tudiesmus tbei ntegra t
    e dwi 仙
    fie
    ldwor k･I nte
    r ventionsi nr ea lo rga niza ionsmus
    t tbes ub j
    ec t
    e dtor igor ous
    follow- upr esear
    c h.
    Thef ieldofs ys t
    e mdyna mi csi sitse l
    fdyna mic. Re ce nta dvanc esinint eractive
    mode ling,t oolsforr epre se
    nt ati
    onoff e edba c kstruc t
    ur e,a nds imul ati
    ons of t
    wa re
    ma kei tpos si
    blef ora nyonet oe nga gei nt hemode lingpr oces s.Cor porations ,uni t
    vers i
    ties ,a nds chool sa reexpe r
    ime nt lngVl gOr OuSly･ Thel i
    br aryofs uc cess full n-
    ter
    ve nt ionsa ndins ightfulresea rchi sgr owl ng. Muc hf u rtherwo r
    ki sne ede dt ot est
    theut ilityoft hetool sandpr otoc ols,e valua tethe i
    ri mpa ctoni ndividuala ndor ga -
    nizationa ll e a
    rning,a ndde velope fe c t
    ivewa yst otra inot he rstous ethe m. Ne ve r
    befbr eha vet hec ha l
    lenge sofouri nc rea s
    ingl ydyna mi cwor ldbe enmor eda untlng.
    Ne ve rbe f oreha vet heo ppor tni
    u tiesbe engr eater.It'
    sa ne xc l
    tlngt i
    met Obel ear n-
    1ngl na nda boutc ompl e xsys t
    e ms .

    1
    5Th
    eacco
    mpa
    nyi
    ngCD-ROMandweb
    slt
    e(ht
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    p://
    www.mhh
    e.c
    oI
    〟st
    erma
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    eve
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    ext
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    imul
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    nsof
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    reyoucanuset
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    Sぎ
    §書e
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    喜iL
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    呈呈

    lSystemd ynamic s]isan a pproacht hats hould helpi ni mpor t


    antt op-
    man ageme ntpr oblems...Thes olu
    tionstos mal lproblemsyi elds mall
    rewayds .Vef
    To ftenthemos timpor t
    antp71
    0blemsar ebutlit
    tl
    emor edlMi c
    ultto
    handlet hantheu nimportant.
    Man ylpeople]predeter
    mineme diocreresultsby
    sett
    ingini t
    ialgoalstoolow.Theat ti
    tudemu stbeoneo fenter
    pr i
    sede si
    gn.The
    expectationshouldbef orma jorimpr ove
    me nt...Theat ti
    tudethatthegoali s
    toe xplainb ehav i
    o73Whi chi sfairl
    yc ommo ni nac a
    de micc ircl
    es,isnot
    su
    j f
    icie
    nt .Thego alshouldbet oft
    'ndma nageme ntpoli
    ciesandor ganiz
    at i
    onal
    st
    ruc t
    ure sth
    atlea dtogreaters uc
    c e
    ss.
    -J ayW. For
    rest
    er(I
    nd u
    stri
    alDynamics,1961,p.449)
    .

    Thi schapterpre s
    entst
    hreec as
    es t
    udiesoft hes ucc e
    ssfulappl icati
    onofs yst
    emdy-
    nami cstos olveimpor t
    antrealwor ldprobl e
    ms .Thec asess pa nar angeofindus-
    tr
    iesa ndissue s.Theyill
    ustra
    tedifferentconte xtsfortheus eofs ys t
    em dynamics
    anddi ff
    erentmo del
    ingprocesses,
    froml a r
    ge ,dataintensivemode l
    stos mal
    lmod-
    els,1nte
    raCtivema nageme ntf
    lights i
    mul at
    or s
    ,a ndr ole-
    pl a
    yl ngga mes.Thec a
    ses
    i
    llustrat
    ehows yst
    emdyna micsc anbeus e
    dt ohe lps ol
    vehi gh- s
    takesprobl
    emsi n
    realtime. Thec as
    esill
    ustrat
    e血epr lnCiplesdi s
    c ussedinc ha pt
    er1a ndpreview
    ma nyoft het oolsandme t
    hodsdi scussedins ubse quentcha pte rs
    .

    2.
    1 AppLI
    CAT!
    ONSOFSysTEM DYNAMI
    CS
    S
    yst
    emdyna
    mic
    sha
    sbe
    ena
    ppl
    iedt
    ois
    sue
    sra
    ngi
    ngf
    romc
    orpor
    ates
    tra
    tegyt
    othe
    dyna
    micsofdia
    bet
    es,f
    rom t
    hecoldwarar
    msrac
    ebe t
    weentheUSandUSSRto
    t
    hecombatbet
    weenHIVandthehumanimmunesys
    tem.Sys
    temdyna
    micsca
    nbe

    41
    42 Pa
    rtI P
    ers
    pec
    tiv
    ean
    dPr
    oce
    ss

    applie
    dt oanydynamicsystem,withanyt
    imeandspat
    ials
    cal
    e.I
    ntheworl
    dof
    businessandpubl
    icpoli
    cy,syst
    em dynami
    cshasbee
    nappli
    edtoi
    ndus
    tri
    esf
    rom
    air
    crafttozi
    ncandiss
    uesfromAI DStowelf
    arere
    for
    m.l

    De veloplnga ni ns ightfulmode lisdifficulte nough;us l


    ngmode l
    ingt ohe l
    p
    changeor ga nizati
    onsa ndi mpl eme ntnewpol ici
    esi seve nha rder.Thegr ea t
    estpo-
    tentialforimpr ove me ntc omeswhe nt hemode l
    ingpr oc essc hangesde eplyhe ld
    me ntalmode ls.Ye tthemor ef undame ntaltheme ntalmode lyouc halle nge,the
    mor ede f
    ens ivet
    hec li
    e ntma ybe. Tor e
    solvet hedi l
    e mmat hec l
    ientsmus tdiscover
    theins i
    ghtsf orthems e l
    ve sbya cti
    vepa rt
    iclpationi nthemode li
    ngpr oce ss .
    Thisc ha pterpr esent st hre
    ec ases t
    udiesi llustrat
    lngt hepr ocess.Ea cha d-
    dresseda nimpor t
    antr ea lwor l
    di ssue.Eachi nvolve dadi fe rentconte xta ndthe r
    e-
    foreus edadi ferenta ppr oach･Ye teacha l
    s os uccee dedini nvolvingt hec li
    entsas
    partnersinthemode li
    ngpr oc e
    ss ,
    inc hanglngl ong-es t
    ablishedme ntalmode ls,and
    inge nerat
    lngS i
    gnificantbe neft
    i.

    2.
    2 AuTOMOBI
    LELEASI
    NG STRATEGY:
    GoNEToDAY i ,
    lEREToMORROW2
    Int he1 990sane w wa yt obuyc arse me rge dint heUni tedSt a t
    es-t heus e dc ar
    supe rst
    ore. Na ti
    ona lc hainsl i
    keCa r
    Ma xandAut oNa ti
    o nofe re dal arges election
    ofc lean,lowmi leagel a
    temode lc ar
    swi t
    hwa rrantie s
    , roads idea s si
    sta nc epl ans ,
    andot hera me nitiestraditiona l
    lya va i
    lableo nl ytone wc arbuye rs.Supe rstores ales
    grewf r
    om not hingi n1 992t omo retha n$1 3bi l
    lioni n1 998.I nt ernetc a rve ndo rs
    bega ntos prlngupa SWe ll.Ma nya nalystsbe li
    evedt hec ombi na ti
    onofs upe rstores
    andi nternets aleshe ralde dar evolut i
    oni nt her etaila utoma rke t.
    In1 995S omes eniorma nage rsa tGe ne ralMot o rswe rec onc e r
    ne da bo utt he
    impa ctofthes upe rst
    o resonne wc arsales･Woul dt he yc utintoGM' sc orema rke t
    ?
    Woul dtheyf or cepr lCeSdown?Howc ouldGM r e spond?RonZa rella,t henvi ce
    presidenta ndgr oupe xe cutivefo rNo rthAme ricanve hicles ales ,service ,a ndma -r
    ke t
    ing( VSSM)a ndl aterpr omot edt opr eside ntofGM' sNor thAme ric anr e gion,
    ne e
    de dawa yt oe xami net heseis sues.
    The rewa slittleres earchont heus edc a rma rke ta vailablet ohe lp.Forma ny
    deca desthene wa ndus edc arma rketswe reonl yl oos elyc oupl e dbe ca us epe ople
    tende dtokee pt he irc arsal ongt lme. Ma rke tresea rchi nthee arly1 990ss howe d
    newc arbuye rswe r
    eke eplngthe ircar sana verageofmor etha n6yea r s･Thebul k
    ofus edc arsoff e
    r edfors a l
    ewe re40rmo reye arsol da ndwe repoo rs ubs titutesf or
    newc ars.Thepr evailingme ntalmode lint hea ut oi ndus try,I ncludingGM,wa s

    l
    Richards
    on( 1
    996),
    Ro b
    erts(197
    8),a
    ndMo recr
    ofta
    ndSte
    rman(1
    994)
    , a
    mo ngot
    her
    s,pr
    ovi
    de
    e
    xamplesoftheappl
    ic
    ati
    onofs y
    stemdynamic
    stoimp o
    rt
    antp
    robl
    emsi
    nawi deran
    geofi
    ndust
    ri
    es
    a
    ndpublicpol
    icyis
    sTes
    ･Mo s
    ek i
    lde(1
    996)des
    crb
    i e
    sappl
    ic
    ati
    onsi
    nphys
    icsan
    db io
    log
    y･For
    d
    (
    1999
    ) desc
    rib
    e se
    nvlr
    Onmentalappl
    ic
    ati
    ons.
    2
    Thisc a
    seisbas
    edonthewo rkofth
    eGe ne
    ralMo t
    or
    sStr
    at
    egySupp
    ortCent
    er,l
    edbyNIC
    k
    P
    uda.
    rⅠ'mg ra
    tefu
    ltoNickandGMf o
    rpermis
    si
    o ntopr
    ese
    ntt
    hecas
    eandtoNickandMarkPai
    ch
    f
    orhe
    lplnitsprepa
    rat
    io
    n.
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDyn
    ami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 43

    thatautoc ompa nieswe reinthebus i


    nessofs elli
    ngne wc ar s
    ;theve hiclespe o
    ple
    tra
    de dinwe reo lda nde ffe
    c t
    ivelydi s
    appe are
    di ntoasepa rates ystem, theus edc a
    r
    ma rket
    .H The rea rer eall
    ytwoma rkets一me wa ndus ed,"thee xe cut
    ivedi rectorof
    sal
    esope rationsa tFo rdtoldTheWal lSt71
    eetJournalin1 994( 3J une, p. Bl).
    Zarellacon tactedVi nc eBa rabba ,the ngene r
    alma nage rofc orpor at
    es tr
    ategy
    andknowl edgede velopme nti nt heVSSM o rganizat
    ion,a nddes cr
    ibe dhi scon -

    cems .Barabba ,for me rheadoft heUSCe nsusBur eau,al


    sohe ade dupt heDe cis
    ion
    Suppor tCe nter(DSC)a nda skedNi c
    kPuda r
    ,thenas eniorbus inessa nalystinthe
    DSC, t
    owor ko nt hes uperstoreissue. TheDSCi saninterna lgroupGM f orme dto
    helpbus i
    ne ssuni tsa ndpr o
    je c
    tt eamst hroughoutt hecompa nyde velopa ndi mple-
    me ntstrategy.TheDSCus esava riet
    yofa nalyti
    caltools ,inc l
    udings ystem dy-
    nami cs.Mor et hans implyagr oupofa nalyti
    calmode lers ,theDSCde ve l
    opeda
    sophist
    icateda ppr oac h,t
    hedi aloguede cisi
    onpr ocess,
    des ignedt obuildc onsensus
    thatleadstoa ction, notme relya na lysi
    sa ndreports･Barabbaa ndPuda r( 1996)de-
    scri
    bet hedi al
    og uede cis
    ionpr oc essa s

    ad i
    scipli
    n edd ecisio
    nma kingp ro
    c esswh ichinvolvesaserieso fst
    ru c
    tureddial
    loguesb etwe e
    nt wog ro upsresponsiblelbrr eac
    hingad ecisi
    ona n
    di mpleme nt
    lng
    theresult
    in gactionp lan･Thef i
    rstgr oup( Decis
    ionRe vi
    ewBo ard)c onsi
    stsofthe
    decisi
    on-ma kers
    , wh og eneral
    lyrepresen tdiff
    ere
    ntfuncti
    o ns.h a
    W ttheyha vein
    commo ni stheaut hori
    tyt oall
    ocater esources:peopl
    e,capltal
    , materia
    ls,tl
    me ,a
    nd
    equipme nt. ..Thes ec ondg r
    ou p(Co reTe am),consi
    stsofH. thosewi t
    has takein
    theimpl e
    me nt
    a t
    ion.
    Thed ial
    ogu ebe t
    we en血et wog roups ,wh i
    chinvolvessha r
    inga ndlearnl
    ngfor
    both,takespl aceinf ourse que
    n t
    ialstages :1)fr
    amingthep roblem; 2)d e
    v el
    oping
    alt
    ernativ
    e s;3)c on d
    uc t
    ingt h
    ea nalysis;an d4)est
    ablis
    hingc onne c
    tion･Eacho f
    thesefours tepsisc ompl et
    edb ytheCo reTe aman dsupportedb yfacili
    ta
    tors
    equlppedwi t
    hd ec i
    siona nal
    ytictools･Att heendo feachpha se,theyha veadia-
    l
    og uese s
    s i
    o nwitht heDe c i
    si
    onRe viewBoa rdwhe r
    etheyJ Ol
    n t
    lyreviewt he
    progress･Ina natmos phe reofinquiry･ -S eni
    orleader
    shipc onverseswithac ros
    s-
    functi
    ona lteamo fma nagersonat o picOfmu t
    ualstr
    ategl
    Ci mp ort
    anc e･

    Puda rtoldZa rel


    lahewoul dneedt oc ommi ttoas ever alhourme et
    inge achwe ek
    foramon血 H tobes urewea r
    ewor kingont her i
    ghtpr obl em."Whi leZa rella'
    s
    schedulewa se xtreme l
    yt ightheof feredtome etwi t
    hBa rabbaa ndPuda rthe
    nextda y.
    Puda r,workingwi thMa rkPa ich,ane xt
    ernals ystem dyna mi csconsultanta nd
    professorofe conomi csa tColoradoCol l
    ege,Da r
    r enPos toft heDSC,a ndTomPa -
    te
    r s
    on( a not
    herc onsulta
    ntt otheDSC)s c
    ramble dtode velo pa ninit
    ialmode loft he
    is
    sue. Tha taft
    ernoont heyde velope das i
    mpl edia gramr e pr es
    entingthes t
    oc ksa nd
    lowsofc
    f arsthrought henew a ndus edma r
    ke t
    sa nds omeoft hef eedbackst hat
    mightc ouplethe m.The yde li
    ber a
    telyke ptitve rys impl e,botht obes uret hey
    couldc ompl et
    ei tintimea nds ot heyc ouldexpla i
    ni tc l
    e arly･
    Tha tnightPuda rde velopedas imple,wo r
    ki ngs imul a ti
    onmode loft hei nter
    -
    acti
    onsbe t
    wee nt hene wa ndus edma rkets
    .Themode lincludeds ectorsf or
    newa ndus edc ars(dividedintoGM a ndnon- GM ve hic les)a ndtrackedve hi cl
    es
    fr
    om pr oduc ti
    ont hroughi nitia
    ls aleorl eas
    e,tra de-in,t heus e dcarma r
    ke t,and,
    44 Pa
    rtI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    ulti
    ma tely,S c rapplng. Italsotr a
    c ke dt hef l
    o wso fc us tome rsmo vl ngIntoa ndo ut
    ofthema r keta ndi nclude das impl ec ons ume rc ho icemo de lfort hene w/us edpur -
    chas ede c ision. Puda rus edda taa tha nda ndhi sjudgme ntt oes tima tepar ame ters .
    Figur e21 lshowsas impl ifi
    edd i
    a gram oft hei niti
    a lmo de l.Thes t
    r uc t
    urei n
    blackc a ptur est hepr e vail
    ingme nta lmo de lfoc us edo nthen e wc arma rket.Thel eft
    sidet rackst hes tocksa ndf lowso fve hic les.St artinga tt het op,t hei nve ntoryof
    unso ldne wc ar sisi ncre a
    sedbypr od uc t
    io na ndd ra inedbyne wc a rs a
    les. Ne wc ar
    salesa ddt ot hes toc ko flatemode lc arso nt her oa d･ Pe oples ello rtr a
    deint heirc ar
    andbuyane wo newi thaf re q
    ue nc yde fne
    i dbyt hea ver ag etr ad e-intime･
    Figur e2- 1a l
    sos howst hema inf eedba ckso pe rati
    ngi nt henewc arma r
    ke t.
    Ma n ufac ture rsa ndde alerspa yc los ea ttentio nt ot hes t
    o cko fne wc arsJn ve ntor y
    cove rag eo fa bou t45d aysp rovide sago odba lanc ebe t
    we e nt hes ele ct
    iona va i
    labl e
    onde ale rl otsa ndc a rryi
    ngc osts.Lo wc ove ra gehu r
    tss a lesbe c ausec ar sare n't
    available; hi ghi n ven torie
    ss lashd ea lera nda uto ma ke rprof itsa sc a rryi
    ngc ostsba ll
    loon. Ifi nve nt oryc ove ra
    ger i
    sesa boveno rma l,ca rma ke rsc utpr od ucti
    on,whi ch
    helpsr ed uc ei nve ntoriesba ckt ono rma l.Ther espo ns eofpr od uc tio ntoinv en t
    o ri
    e s
    formst hene ga t
    ive( ba lancing )Pr od uc t
    ionCo ntrolf eed ba c kl oo p, B1 .Howe ve r,
    automa ke rsa rer eluc tanttoc utprod uctio na ndi na nyc ase, itta ke stime .
    Thed ela y
    ina djus t
    ingPr od uctio nme a nsinve nt orie ste ndt of luc tua tea ro undd esiredl eve ls
    asde ma ndva ries.
    Thes ec ondma inr espons etoe xc essi nve n toriesi slo we rpr lCe S.Whe ninve n-

    toryc ove ragei shi g h,de alersa remo rewi ll


    ingt oc utt he irma rginsa ndma nu-
    facturer sof feri nc entivess ucha sc ash- ba cka ndl ow a nn ua lpe r
    centa ger ate s
    (APRs )Onl oa nsf inan cedt hroug ht he irc redi td i
    vi sions .Lowe rpr icesma kene w
    carsmo r ea ttrac ti
    ver elat
    ivet othec arspe opl ea lrea dyo wn. Pe o pletradei nthe ir
    oldc arss oone r,boos t
    ingne wc a rs alesunt ili nve nto ri
    e sf allba ckt ono rma l(the
    nega ti
    vePr icingl oo p, B2) .

    2.
    2月 Dynami
    cHypo帥es妄
    s
    Cha l
    leng i
    ngthec onventionalwi sdom, theteame x
    pa ndedthes t
    ocka ndflows t
    r uc-
    turetoinc l
    udel at
    emod elus edc ars.Ⅰnsteadofdi sappearlng,tr
    ade-insa ddt oi n-
    ventoriesofl a
    temode lus edc a r
    sO nde al
    erl otsora vai
    lablefora uction.Whe n
    thesecarsa r
    epu rchased,theyr eenterthes t
    ocko fl a
    temode lcar
    so nther oad. The
    sumo ft hecarso nther oada ndc ar
    so nde alerl ot
    si stheto t
    alstoc
    ko flat
    emod el
    vehicles(shownbyt hel arger ectangleinFi gure2- 1);thesec a
    rsgradua l
    lya gein to
    thepopul at
    ionofo lde
    rc arsanda reeventuall
    ys crapped.Th emo deluse dan" aging
    chain"toke ept r
    acko fthec a rsont her oada ndi nus edc arinventori
    e sbyトye ar
    coho r
    ts.Thea gi
    ngc hain( cha pter1 2)a l
    lowe dt het ea
    mt oe xami nehow t he
    numbe rof1 -,2-,and3 -year-oldc arsont heroa da ndf orsalechange dinr espons e
    tosales.
    Thes t
    ocka ndnowpe rs
    pe ctivemo t
    ivatedt hemode l
    ingt eamtoa skwhe ret he
    superst
    o resgotthel argeinve ntoriesofa t
    tr
    ac tivel at
    emo delcarsthe yreq uired.
    Partoft heanswe rwa st hegr owl ngq ua l
    it
    yo fne wc a r
    s･St i
    mulatedbyt hehi g h
    qualit
    yoff or
    eignc ars,parti
    c ularlytheJ apane sei mpor t
    s,a l
    lma nufac t
    urersha d
    Cha
    pte
    r2 Sys
    temDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 4
    5

    GURE2
    Fd ･
    l Asi
    mpF
    emodeloHheaut
    omobi
    l
    emar
    ket

    Rectanglesrepr
    esentstocksofcar
    s;pIPeSandvalvesrepresentfl
    owsbetween
    cat
    egor i
    es(chapter6)
    .Ar r
    owsandpolari
    tes(
    i +or-)i ndicatecausali
    nfl
    uences:
    AnincreaseinNew Carhvent oryl
    eadst oani
    ncreaseinI nvent
    oryCoverage(anda
    decrease一eadstoadecr ease)
    ;anincr
    ease(decr
    ease)inI nvent
    oryCoveragecauses
    Pew CarPri
    cestodecrease(
    increase)
    ;Seechapt
    er5･Grayst
    ruct
    urewasnotcapt
    ured
    F
    nt hepreval
    ll
    ngindust
    rymentalmodelinwhi
    chnew andusedcarmarket
    sdonot
    i
    nteract
    .
    4
    6 Pa
    rtiP
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    inve s
    te di nma j orqua li
    typr ogr ams . Thought he r
    ewa ss til
    lr oo mf ori mpr ove me nt,
    byt he1 990St hequa lit
    ya nddur abi lityofne wc arswa ss igni fica ntlyhi ghe rtha ni n
    the1 980S .
    Butqua li
    tyl mpr OVe me nta lonec oul dnote xpl aint her iseoft hes upe rstor es.
    Byt het imemos tc arsa r et rade di nt he ya r et oool dt oc ompe tea ga l
    nS tne wC ars
    a nda r euns ui tabl ef ort hes upe rstor es. Qua l i
    tyi mpr ove me nt smi ghte ve nl engt he n
    het
    t ra de -inc yc let ime , reduc ingt hes uppl yofl atemode lus e dc a rs.
    Thea ns we rwa slea slng. I nt hee a rl
    y1 990sl e aslngWa st hehotne wma rke ting
    tooli nt hea utomo bi leindus try. Le asingOf fe redwha ts eeme dt obeas ur e-f i
    rewa y
    toboos ts a l
    es , Ri singqua lityme antt hema rke tva lueof2- ,3- ,a nd4- ye a r01 dc ars
    wa smuc hhi ghe rr e lati
    vet one wc arst ha nint hepa st.Thehi ghe rt her es idua lva lue
    a tthee ndofal ea se ,t
    hel owe rt hel ea sepa yme nt s.Le ase sa lsog lVeC us tome rst he
    opt iont Obuyt hec a rwhe nt hel ea see xpl reSa tthes pe cifie dr es idua lva lue,t r ans -
    fe rr
    ingt her is
    koff luc tua tionsi nt hema rke tva l
    ueofus e dve hi clesf rom t hec us -
    tome rt ot hec ar ma ke r
    .Mos timpo rta ntt othema nuf acture rs ,typi ca llea set e rmsa re
    2t o4ye ars ,Stimul a ti
    ngs ale sbyc ut tl
    ngt het r ade -
    inc yc l et ime･ Le a si
    ngI nc rea se d
    from4. 1 %ofa llne wc ars a lesi n1 990t omor etha n22%i n1 99 7.
    Fr omt hepe r spe cti
    veoft hepr eva ilingme nta lmode l, lea singWa saboon. Fi rs t
    ,
    its t
    imul a teds ale s.Whe ne ve ri nve nt oriesr is ec arma ker sc oul di nc reasei nc ent ives
    forl eas ingt hr oughl eas es ubve ntion.Subve nt i
    onl owe rsl e asepa yme nt sbya sI
    sumi nghi ghe rr esidua ls ,lowe ri nt e r
    es tr ates ,Orl owe ri ni tialca pl taliza tion;t ypi
    -

    c all
    yc ar ma ker swo uldr a is
    er es i
    dua lva luesa bovegui de bookva luesf orus e dc ars･
    Lowe rl ea sepa yme ntsboos tt hea ttrac t
    ive nes sofne wc ar sa ndi nduc es omepe opl e
    tot radet he irc ur re ntc arf orane wl ea sedve hic l
    e( for mi ngt heba lanc ingLea se
    lnc ent ivel oo pB3i nFi gur e2- 1) .Se cond,t hes hor tert hea ve ragel eas et e rm,t he
    shor tert het r ade -int imea ndt heg r eatert hes ales( theba lanc i
    ngLe aseTe rml oop
    B4) .Ifa llne wc a rbuye r ss wi tche dt ol ea seswi tha na ve ra get erm of3ye ars ,the
    trade -inc yc let imewo ul dbec uti nha lfa ndne wc ar sale swo ulddoubl e-al le l
    s e
    equal .
    Themode lingt eamqui c klyc ha llenge dt hea ssumpt lOnt ha ta lle lsewa se qua l･
    Whi lea6- ye a
    rol dc arュsapoors ubs tit
    ut ef orane wc ar, a1 -t o3- yea r
    -ol dc arwi th
    lowmi leagemi ghtbea ttr activet oma nype opl e.Ast heg r owl ngVOl umeofl e ases
    expi re dt heus e dc arma r ke tc oul dbef loode dwi thhi g h- qua l
    itynea rl
    yne wc ars･
    Us e dc a rpr lC eSmi ghtpl umme t .Somepe opl ewhomi ghtha vet r ade dt he irc ur re nt
    ca rsf orne wone so ptins t
    ea df orofl le aseve hi cles,r ais ingt hea ve raget rade -in
    timea ndr etur ningmo rel a temode lus edc a rst ot hes to ckofc ar sont her oa d( the
    ba lanc ingUs edCa rMa rke tl oop,B5) .Le asinga l
    sos ho rte nst hea ve ra get rade -in
    cyc let ime,r ais lngt hea ve r agequa lityofus e dc arsf o rs a le･ Mor epe opl eoptf or
    of f
    llea seve hicle si ns t
    ea dofbuyi ngne w. Thea ve raget rade -int i
    mef ort hepopuh
    tiona sawho l
    er i ses ,formi ngt heba lanc ingUs e dCa rQua lit
    yl oo p, B6･ Eve nmor e
    interes tlng, theus e dma rke tc oul df ee dba c kt oa f
    f ectthef ra ctionofc us tome rswho
    choos et obuyt he irc arwhe nt he irl e asee xpl reS ･If,a tlea see nd, us e dc arpr lCe Sa r e
    highe rt ha nt her esid ualva luewr itteni nt othel ea se, t
    hec us tome rc a npur cha s et he
    ca rbe lowma rke tva lue. Thec us tome rr etent ionf ra ctionwoul dr ise. If,howe ve r,
    us edc a rpr icesdr o ppe dbe lowr es idua lva l
    ue s,ther e tent i
    onf rac t
    ionwoul df a lla s
    mo rec us tome rst ur ne dt he irc a rsba c kt ot hel es s
    or .Thei nve ntor yofl atemode l
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 47

    Carswouldr isea ndus edca rpr l


    CeSWOul ddr opstil
    lmor e,inavi ciouscyc l
    e,the
    posit
    ive(self-
    reinforci
    ng)Pur c haseOptionloop, Rl .
    3
    Howe ver,thef T
    eedba ckss howni ngr ayope rat
    ewi thal ongde lay(roughly
    equaltothea veragel easeterm)a ndwe r
    epoor lyunderst
    oodi nt heindust
    ry.Lea s
    -
    1ngStimulatessa l
    esi nthes hot -r
    run.Una war eofthes t
    ructures howni ngr ayln
    Figure2- 1,thee xperienceoft heea r
    ly1 990St aughtca rma kersthatleasing
    works-a ndt heydi ver t
    eds t
    illmor ema rket
    ingdol larst
    os ubve nti
    ona nds hort
    er
    ter
    ms .
    Init
    ialresul tss ugges t
    ed,howe ver,thatleaslngWOul de vent uallyc r
    ea teagl ut
    ofhi gh-qualitynea r l
    yne w ca rs,de pressl
    ngl atemode lus edc arpr lCeS.Ne w ca r
    saleswoul ds uf fera smor ec onsume rsopte df orchea pof f-
    leas eve hic l
    es. Theca r-
    ma ke r
    s'c r
    edi tc ompa nies( Ge ner alMot or sAcce ptanceCor por ati
    on[ GMAC] ,
    FordCr edi
    tCor por ation,a ndChr ys l
    erCr editCorpor ation)woul df acel os s
    esas
    ma rketva l
    uesf ells hor toft her esidua lvaluet heyha dbookeda ndasf ewe rc on-
    sume rsexerc i
    s edt he i
    ropt l
    Ont Obuy, turnlngt heca rba ckt othel essorsins t
    ea d.
    Thef ollowl ngda yPuda ra ndhi steam pr esentedt hes er esultstoZa rella,in-
    cludingthes truc tureoft heiniti
    a lmode lands i
    mul a
    tionss howl ngt hepr oblemsa g一
    gressiveleaslngCOul dc ause.Bys hortenlngt rade-inc yclet imest hroughl easlng
    andne etsal
    es ,C a r
    ma ker swe rec reatingagl utofhi gh-qua lit
    yus edc a r
    sa ta tt
    rac
    -

    ti
    vepr l
    CeS.Su pe rs
    t oreswe res impl yt hema rketres pons et ot heoppor tunltyt he
    ma nufacturerst he ms elvesha dcr e
    a ted.
    Usedca rsuperstor
    eswe reonlythes ympt om ofade eperproble m- thel e
    asing
    pol ici
    esoft hecama kers
    . Leas
    lngIncreaseds alesint heshortrunbuts etinmot ion
    feedba ckstha tcausedsalestoslumpwhe nthel eas e
    dve hicl
    esr eentere
    dt hema r
    -
    ket ･Intheol dda ys,peoplekeptthe i
    rca rslonge nought hattrade-insefe cti
    vely
    disa ppearedfrom c oncer
    n.Buti nawor ldofs hort-termleases,ne wca rsaregone
    toda y,heretomo rrow.
    Ther eali
    zati
    ont hatsupers
    toreswe rea ne ndogenouscons equenc eoft heca r -

    ma ke rs'Owna ct
    ionsdr a
    ma ti
    call
    yr edefinedt hef ocusoft hewor k.Iniia
    t lmodel
    ana lysissugge s
    tedGM s houl
    dde -emphas izel easlng,exactl
    yc ount ertoindustry
    t
    r ends .
    Thes
    eefe
    ctsma
    ysee
    m obvi
    ous(
    espe
    cia
    llynow t
    hatyouha
    ver
    eadt
    hede-
    c
    s r
    ipt
    ionoft
    hemodela
    bove)
    ,anda
    utoi
    ndus
    tryexe
    cut
    ivesdi
    dknow t
    hats
    ome
    ofll
    easecarswouldreent
    erthema r
    ket.However,mostdiscount
    edthepos s
    ibili
    ty
    ofanyproblems.I
    n1 994,USAT odayquotedaGe nera
    lMot orsleas
    ingexecutive
    whos a
    id,HThedemandf orcarscomingOfflea
    sesistri
    plethesupply.Lease-end
    car
    shaveǹotcrea
    tedabottl
    e nec
    kintheindust
    ry'H(2Novembe r).ADe t
    roit-
    area

    3
    Th ePurcha
    seOp t
    ionlooplSpar
    tial
    lyoff
    setbecausecus
    tomerstu
    rnl
    n gt
    h ei
    rcarsbackto
    le
    ssorspurcha
    seanothe
    rv eh
    icl
    e.Ifl
    easec u
    stomersusedthei
    rpurcha
    seoptl
    Ont Oma keapurea
    rbi
    -
    tr
    agep l
    aywh enusedcarprl
    CeSfel
    lbelowresidual
    v a
    luesbyturn
    lngthe
    ircarsinandimme di
    at
    el
    y
    buyi
    n giden
    tic
    alonesatthel
    owe rmarketprl
    Ce,t
    h e
    nt h
    en ete
    fe c
    tofchangesint
    h erete
    nti
    onfr
    ac-
    ti
    onwo uldbezer
    o .However,s
    omec ust
    o merst
    urnlngthei
    rcrsb
    a a
    cktoless
    o r
    swi l
    lb u
    yan ewcar
    ordi
    ffere
    n t
    u s
    edcar,poss
    ibl
    yfromac omp et
    ito
    r･Onn etalo
    we rre
    tent
    io
    nf r
    acti
    onf oraglVe
    nmake
    andmo delwil
    lte
    n dtopushpri
    cesforthatca
    rd ownstil
    lmore,tr
    lgg
    erl
    nge venlowerret
    enti
    on･
    Theseefectswerecapt
    uredinthefu
    llmo delbutforcl
    arl
    tyarenotSho
    wni nFigure211A
    48 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    Cadil
    lacdeal
    erd i
    smissedanyl i
    nkagebe t
    weenthenewa ndusedmarket
    sf orhi
    gh-
    endcars,
    scof
    f i
    ng,"You'llnevergetaluxurybuyert
    otakeac arwi
    th30,000mi l
    es
    onit
    "(TheWal lSty
    l
    eetJournal,3June1 994)
    .Inthes
    amea rt
    icl
    e,TheJournalwent
    ontonotethatFord'
    Se xecut
    ivedirec
    torofs a
    lesope
    rat
    ions
    arg
    ue st
    ha tt
    heindustryhash a
    dac h r
    onicshort
    ageo fgoodtwo -
    yea
    r-ol
    dcarsto
    sel‥ .H
    l Thi
    s[ s
    hort-
    termleasing]bri
    ngsthec a
    rsba c
    katjusttheri
    ghtt
    ime,when
    dema ndishighest
    ,Hhes a
    ys･Mo reover
    ,theused-carmarketi
    sa tl
    eastt
    wic
    ea sbi
    g
    asthene wIC
    arma rketandcane asi
    lyabsorbt
    hep rojec
    tedvolumes.
    Theu nde
    r l
    yin
    gs tr
    engthinus e
    d -
    Cardema ndwillsa
    fel
    ya bsor
    bthevolu
    meo f
    usedv e
    h i
    cle
    sc omlngO f
    flease,wit
    houtcannibali
    zl
    n gnew-CarSal
    es,
    Hpred
    icts...
    [a
    n]a utosecu
    r i
    ti
    esan a
    lystatSalomonBr os.
    The rea ppe aredtobea mpl eevidenc et osuppo rtt
    he sevi e ws･Us edc ars alesgr ew
    from 37. 5mi ll
    ionin1 990t onea r
    ly42mi ll
    ioni n1 995whi l
    e1 995ne wc ars ales
    we rea bout1 5mi l
    lion,ar iseofonl ya boutami l l
    ionve hicles/years i
    nc e1 990.
    Us edc arpr lCeSrosemor et han6%/ yea rbe twe en1 990a nd1 995, muc hf astertha n
    inf
    la ti
    on. Wi thrisl
    ngus edc arpr l
    Ce S
    , mor ea ndmo repe o pleopt edt oke ept heirve -
    hic l
    ewhe ntheirleas ee xpi red･Ma nyi nt hei ndus tr
    y ,lnC l
    udingGM,a rgue dt hat
    strongde ma nda ndr is
    ingus edc arva l
    uesJ ustif
    iede ve nhi gherr esidua lvalue s,a1-
    lowl ngl owe rleasepa yme ntsandboos t
    lngne wC arS aless ti
    llmor e.
    Whi lethei nit
    ialres ul t
    swe reintrlgulng, mor ewo rkwa sne ededbe forec r
    e di-
    blepol icyr e c
    omme nda ti onsc ouldbema de,muc hl essa nya c ti
    ont a ken.Eve ni f
    leasingWa sade vil'sba rga n,e
    l veryC arma ke rfelts t
    rongpr es suret oma tcht he
    termsa ndpr i
    cesofi tsc ompe t
    itors.Onc ea llma jorma nuf acture rswe reofe ring
    sho r
    tlea sete r
    mswi t
    ha gg re s
    sives ubve nti
    on, unil
    atera l
    lyba c kinga wa yf roml e a
    ls
    lngmi ghtr i
    sktoomuc hma rketsha r
    e. Za r
    e ll
    aa skedt het ea mtoc ontinuet hemod-
    elingtoa ddresstheseques ti
    ons .TheDSCf orme dade cisionr eviewboa r
    d, chair ed
    byZa rellaa ndBa rabba,t oove r s
    eet hepr o jectandt hemode lingt eamt henbe ga n
    tor efi
    net hemode la ndga t
    he rtheda tane e dedt oc al
    ibr ateit･The yha d20da ys .

    2.
    2,2 E】
    '
    -
    lbor
    a軸 gt
    hen
    i
    lodL
    ng
    Themode l
    ingt
    eaminte
    rvie
    we dpeoplet
    ll
    rOug
    h outt
    heorga
    niz
    ati
    ontounder
    sta
    nd
    theiss
    ue sandgat
    herdat
    a･Throughthemeetl
    ngSOfthecor
    eandmodelingt
    eams
    theyope nedupthemode ltoc r
    it
    icalr
    eviewa ndpre
    sent
    edinte
    rimresul
    tsfor
    disc
    ussion.
    Onea re
    af orimprove me ntwa sthet reatme ntoft hec ompe ti
    tiona nds egme n-
    tat
    ionofthema r
    ketintodi ferentve hicletype s.Somea rgue dfo rex pli
    cittreatme nt
    ofe veryma jorma nufac t
    urera ndma rkets egme nt
    ･Br a ndl oya l
    tyl Si mpor tant:
    PeoplewhoboughtGM c arslasttimea remor el ikelytobuya nothe rGM c artha n
    non-GM owne r s
    .The yalsoa rgue dthatGM c ust ome r
    swe redifferentfromFo rdor
    Hondac ustome r
    sa ndtha tma rketsforl uxuryc a rs,fa
    mi lys eda ns,sportut i
    lit
    yve -
    hicl
    es,ands oonwe r
    ea lldife rent.Thet eamc ount e
    re dthattheda tarequi r
    eme nts
    forsuchade tail
    edmode lwoul dbee normousa ndwoul dde layde vel
    opme ntofa
    usefulmode l
    .The ypreferreda ni t
    erativea pproa ch,wi t
    hmor el imiteddi saggrega -
    ti
    on;i fsensi
    ti
    vl t
    ya nalysiss howe dt ha tf u
    rthe rs e
    gme ntati
    o nwa snee dedt he y
    couldthenrevisethemode ltoinc l
    udemor edeta il
    .Thet ea ma gr e
    edt os eparatethe
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
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    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 4
    9

    ma rketi ntoGM a ndnon- GM ve hiclesbutt or e pr esentonl yas ingl ea ggr egat


    e
    ve hic l
    et ype.
    Anot he rimpor tanta r eaofdi scussionwa sd isaggr egationoft hec ustome rba se.
    Pa rallelt otheflow ofc a rsbe twe ent he" ont her oad"a nd" fors a l
    e"s toc ksa r
    e
    stoc ksa ndf lowso fd rive rs.Eve r yca rt radedi nmove sac ustome rfrom " ont he
    roa dHt oH inthema rke t;"e ve ryne w orus edc ars oldput sadr ive ront her oad
    aga in.Cha ngesi nt her ela t
    ivea tt
    ractivenes sofne wa ndus edc arss hiftthepr opor-
    tionofdr iversi nthema rketopt l
    ngf orane wc ar.Thec hoi cebe twe enne wa nd
    us edve hiclesa lsode pe ndsont he irpa s tbeha vi or .Thec hanc eac us tome rwi ll
    lease, buyne w,o rbuyus e dde pe ndsonwhe the rheors hel eased,boughtne w,or
    boughtus edl a
    s ttime. Someme mbe rsoft heor ga niz at
    ionpo l
    ntedo uttha tthec om-
    pa ny,t hroughe xtensivema rke tre s
    ea rch,a l
    re adykne wal ota boutc ons ume rbe -
    ha viori nt hen e wc a
    rma rke t.The yins istedtha tt hedyna micmode li nco rpor at
    e
    the seda tas oth eDSCc oul ds pe akwi thonevoi cea nda voidthene edtor ec oncil
    e
    confli cti
    ngmo de l
    s.
    Toa ddr esst hebra ndl oya l
    tya ndc ons ume rbe ha viorissue sthemode lingt eam
    disa ggr egatedt hec us tome rba sei ntos e veralc ate gor i
    es:thos ewhol ea sedane w
    ca r,pur c
    ha sedane wc a r,Orpu rcha se
    dus e dcar sofva riousa ges .Figur e2 -2S hows
    as impl ifiedr e
    p resenta ti
    onoft her esultingt r
    ans itionma t
    rix･Ea che ntryint hema -
    trixi sthepr oba bili
    tyt hatbuye r scomi ngf romapa r
    ticularc ate
    go rys howni nar ow
    wi ll,whe nthe yne xtt ra dei n, movet ot hec ategor iess howni nt hec olumns .The
    ac t
    ua lma trixha dt wi cea sma nyca tegor iesa si ti nc l
    ude dpr oba biliti
    esf ore ach
    pur cha seopt lOnf わrbot hGM a ndnon- GM ve hic les .
    Thet ransit
    io npr oba bili
    tiesi nt hema tr
    ixwe renotc onstantbutc ha nge da s
    thepr l
    C eSO fne wa ndus edc arsc hange d. Lowe rpa yme ntsonGM l ea sesi nc reas
    e

    GURE2
    FI -
    2
    Thema tri
    xshows
    thepr obabi li
    ty
    p( =)t hatcu s- FRoM= TO= 武 G t
    誓言g
    芸D 0.
    焉,a
    :y
    o
    挙
    7 :t b
    :
    JS t

    tomer si neach
    categor yshown N
    ewCa
    r
    inrowi wHl ,on
    N
    ew p
    (i,
    j)
    trade-in,move
    toth ec ategor y
    1
    -Yr
    一
    〇】d
    inc olumnJ .
    Thet r
    an sit
    ion 2
    -Yr
    一
    〇ld
    probabi li
    ti
    esi n
    thef ulHmode一 3
    -Yr
    一
    〇ld
    arevar iablean d
    depen donr elat
    ive 4
    -Yト
    OFd
    CU
    ∪
    P
    as
    u
    ｢
    e
    rc
    L
    d
    he
    C
    as
    a
    se
    r
    e
    prlCeS.Thef ull
    mat ri
    xdi saggr e- Sour
    ce:Ad
    apt
    edf
    r
    omGM De
    cI
    S1
    0nSu
    ppo
    rtCe
    nte
    rdi
    agr
    am･
    Use
    dwi
    t
    h
    gatesGMand per
    mlSS
    ion .

    non -GMvehi cl
    es.
    50 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    thep ropo r ti
    ono pt lngf oraGM l ea se,whi l
    el owe rus edc arpr l
    C eSi nc re a set he
    sha reo fpe opl ebuyi ngus edc a rsa tt hee x pe nseo fne wpur c ha se sa ndl ea se s.The
    re spons et os uc hc ha ng e sdi ffe redf ore achc at
    e g oryo fc us tome r.
    Thed is agg rega ti
    o no fthemo de lwa snota c co mpl ishe di no nes tepbuti ns ev-
    e raliterations ･ Ate a chs tagemode lingt eamme mbe rsma des uret he yunde r s
    tood
    thes t
    ruc turea ndbe havi oro ft hemod e landpr e sent edi tt oZa re llaa ndhi st e amf or
    c omme nta ndr evi e w. Ea c hi te rationt he yi nc orpo ra tedt hec riticismsa nds ugge s-
    tionst he yr ece ive d.Eve nwi tht hel imi t
    e dd i
    s agg re ga tio noft hemode lt heda ta
    c hallenge swe ref o rmi da bl e･ Gi ve nt he2 0-da yde a dline , thet eamha dt ous eda ta
    a lr
    e adya va i
    labl ei nva ri o uspa rtsoft heo r ga ni
    z atio n. Thema rke t res earc hda t
    af or
    ne wc arswe ree xc ellent .Da t ao nl easlng,ar e lative lyne w phe nome no n,we re
    ske tchy･Andc o ns istentwi tht hepr eva i
    lingme nta lmode lt ha tdown pl aye dthe
    us edc arma rke t
    ,t he rewa sa lmos tnor es earchde scr ibinghowpe opl et ra de dof f
    ne wa ndl atemode lus edve hi cle s.The yd rewont hebe stda t as our c esa va il
    abl e
    andus edj udg me nta ndq ua lita ti
    veda tawhe ren ume ric alda tawe renota va ilable .
    Att hee ndo ft he2 0da yst het eamme ta galnWi thZa re ll
    aa ndhi st ea mJns te ad
    o fpr esent lngt hemod e la ndr e sul ts,the yc onf igur edt hemode la sa ni nt er acti
    ve
    ma nage me ntfli ghts i
    mul a tor･ A" da sh boa rd"c ont aine ddi a l
    sa ndga uge sr e po rt
    lng
    standa rda c count ingi nf or ma tions uc ha si nve nto ryl e ve ls,s ale svol ume s ,pr ice s
    ,
    ma rkets ha re,a ndpr ofita bility .Pl a ye rss etp r od uc ti
    ont a r
    ge ts ,inc e ntive s ,lea se
    tems ,ands oo n. Byc licki ngabut tono nthes cre enpl a ye rsc o uldge ta d ditio na lin-
    fo r
    ma t
    ioni nc ludi ngt hes truc turea nda ss
    umpt lO nSO ft hemode l.
    Bypl ayingt hega mei ns te ado fli st
    e nlngt Oapr e sent ation, Za rellaa ndhi ste am
    expl oredt hed yna mi csofl ea singf o rthe ms elves .The yc oul dt ryv ariouss tra tegie s
    ,
    froma g gre ssives u bve nt i
    o no fl e ase st opul li
    ngo uto ft hel eas ema rke ta ltog ethe r
    ,
    ands eet hei mpa cto ns ale sa ndpr of itsint hes ho rtr una ndt hel ongr un. The yd isI
    co ve r
    e dt ha tthef ulli mpa c tofl ea slngd e cisi
    o nst oo kupt 05ye ar st opl ayo ut.
    Whi lele aslngdi dpr ovi deal iftt os a lesint hes ho rtr un,i tof tenc aus edpr obl ems
    whe ntheo ff-
    le asec ar sr etur ne dt ot hema rket.
    After20da yst hemod e lingp r oc essr eve ale dt hec ha llenge sl ea singPOS e df T
    or
    thec ompa nya ndi nd icate dpr elimi na rypol i
    c yr ecomme nda tions . Howe ve r, befo re
    anyc ons ens usf わra ctionc oul dbede ve lope d, thep ro c essha dt obebr oa de ne dt o
    inc l
    ud eo the rke yde cisio nma ke r sthr o ugho utNo rthAme r icanOpe rations( NAO) .
    Themode lingt e ambe ga nt owo rkwi ththeLe asingSt rate gyl mpl e me nt at
    io n
    Te am, at a skf o rcei nclud ingpe opl ef ro mma rke ti
    ng, f i
    na nce ,a ndo the rf unc ti
    o ns.
    The i
    rma nda tewa st oboos tma rke ts harea ndpr ofita bility･The ydi dn' tt hinka
    mode lwa sne c essa ry,di dn' tt rus tthemo de li
    nga ppr oa ch,a ndo ppos e dt hei nitial
    rec omme nda tions .Vi e we dt hr oug ht hel e nso ft he irme nta lmode l,t hi spos i-
    t
    i onwa se nt i
    r elyr a t
    io na l･Thes uc c es so fl ea slnga nds t
    re ng thoft heus edc ar
    ma rke tpr o vide da mpl ee vide nc et ha tc ompe t
    itivel ea slngWa se ssent ialt oGM' s
    Strategy･
    Wo rkingwi t
    hyo urc rit
    ic si sof tent hebe s
    twa yt oi mpr oveyo urunde rsta nding
    ofc o mpl exi ss ue s. Ove rthene xtf ewmo nthst hemode lingt e amr efine dthemode l
    struc t
    ure ,i mpr ove dt heda taa ndc a l
    ibr ation,a ndt es tedt hemode love rawi de
    rangeofc o nditi ons .The yme twi tht hel ea slngt e ama bo uto nc eamont ht opr ese nt
    i
    n terimr e sultsa ndl istent oc rltlqu e S.
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 51

    2.3 P
    2. ol
    i
    cyAn
    aly
    sis
    Ast he i
    rc onf idenc eint hef or mul ationsa ndc ali
    br ati
    o noft hemode lgr ew, thet e am
    tur nedt opol icya na l
    ysi s.Pol ic yl eve rsi nc l
    udel easet ermsa nds ubve ntionl eve ls
    ,
    alongwi h pur
    t cha seinc entives ,f
    le etsa les,a ndva ri
    ousde c isi
    onrul esf orpr oduc -
    tion. Thei mpa ctofe a
    c hpol icyc ombi na tionde pende dont hepol i
    c iesoft hec om-
    pe titorsa nd ahos tofma rke tunc er t
    a inties,f rom c hangesi nt hee c onomy,
    de mogr aphi cs ,gasol i
    nepr ic es ,a ndi nt erestr at
    est oc hange si ntheuni tc os tsof
    ea chc arma ke r,Carqua lity,a ndbr andl oya lt
    y.
    Thec ombi na ionofpol
    t ic iesa ndma r kets ce nariosde fineapol ic yma trix. The
    tea m us edt hemode ltof indt heo pt i
    ma llea sepol i
    cie sfore a chc e
    l li nthema trix.
    Fi gur e21 3S howsas ampl ei llus tratingt hene tpr ese ntva lueofGM pr of itsa sa
    func t
    ionofl e asingpol ic y(nol ea singvs 12- ,3- ,o r4- yeart erms )fore a c
    hc ombi -
    na tionofc ompe t
    itorle aset er msa nde conomi cgr owt hs cena ri
    o( sta ble,boom,or
    rec ess i
    on) .
    Thepol icya na
    lys isS howe dt ha tthe rewa snogol ngba ck: Profitswi thoutl e asl
    lngWe recons ist
    entlyne gative, rele
    f ctingt hea tt
    ra cti
    ve nessofl easingt Oc ons ume rs
    andt hepr l
    S One r'sdi l
    emmat ha tuni la terallys toppl ngl ea singWhi lec ompe titors
    cont inue dtoofe ri tdrama tica llyr educ e dGM s a l
    e s
    ･
    Thea na lys i
    sa lsos howe dt ha tGM' spr ofitswe r ec ons i
    s t
    entlyhi ghe rwi t
    h4-
    yea rl easet erms .Four -ye art er mswe res upe riorove rawi der angeofcompe titor
    stra t
    e gleSandun c ert
    ainties. Longe rt ermsha vet woma i
    nbe neficiale ffec t
    s IFir st
    ,
    t
    houghs hortert ermsdos hor te nt het rade -i
    nc ycle, t
    her esul t
    inggl utofne ar l
    yne w
    ca rsde press esus e dpric ess omuc ht ha tthes ubs ti
    tutionofus edf orne wpur cha ses
    off setstheirbe ne fi
    t.Int ermsofFi gure2- 1,theUs edCa rMa r
    ket,Us e dCa rQua l-
    1
    ty, andPur c ha seOpt i
    onl oo psove rwhe l
    mt hebe ne f
    ito ftheLe aseTe rma ndLe a se

    FGURE2
    I -
    3 Compet
    itorLeaseTer
    m
    Pol
    cya
    i n
    al
    ysI
    S
    2y
    ear 3year 4year
    Thepol lCymatri
    x
    showst he
    simulat
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    0
    !
    J

    presentv al
    ue
    leua3S

    (NPV)o fGM
    profi
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    al
    qCt
    3!

    l
    easlngPOl l
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    (noleasingor21tO
    4-yearterms)for
    eachc ombinati
    on
    uo ssa3Ot
    !

    ofecon omic
    scenari
    oand
    compe ti
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    j

    str
    ategy･
    ce'
    Sour Ada
    pte
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    omGM DSCd
    iag
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    Use
    dwi
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    rmi
    ss
    ion
    ･
    52 Pa
    rtI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    Inc entivel oops .Four -ye arter msme ant hec ar sc oml ngOf fl eas ea rel essa t
    tr active
    subs titutesf orne wc a
    r s,whi les ti
    lls pe edingt het rade- inc yc les ome wha t.
    Thes e condbe ne f
    itofl onge rter msi samo res ubt le ,di sequi librium e ffe ct. By
    incre aslngt hes ubs tit
    ut abili
    tybe twe e nne wa ndne arlyne wus edc ars,s ho rt- t
    e rm
    leasesi nc reasedt hevul ne rabilityofea rnlngSt Oi ndus trydownt ur ns .Ra t
    he rt han
    showl ngC Ompl exdi a
    gr amss ucha sFi gur e2- 1t oe xpl a inwhy,Puda rde ve lope d
    Figur e2- 4,s howi ngt hes tockofl atemode lve hiclesa saba thtub. Theba tht ubdi -
    agr am us esas impl eme ta phort oi llustratet hedyna mi csofl eas l
    ng. Thes toc kof
    newa ndne w- Cars ubs tit
    ut esisi ncre asedbypr oduc t
    iona ndt heflOwofl atemode l
    use dc a rsc omi ngof fleas e( andoutofr e ntalca rfleet s) .Sa lesdr aint het ub.
    Dur ingr ecessions ,aut os alesd rop. Thewa te rleve li nt het ubr ises .Ca ma ke r
    s
    comeunde rpres suret oc utpr lCeSa nds ubs idiz el easest odr ainc arsoutoft het ub
    fastera nda lsoc utpr oduc tiont os topt hei nf
    low. Howe ve r, theflowofne wc a rs ub-
    sti
    tute si ntot hema rketf rome xpl r
    lngl easesc annotbet ur ne dof f.Whe nar e ce ssion
    hits,le as ess ol
    ddur ingt hepr e cedingboom c ont inuet oe xpl re,boos tingt hel eve l
    inthet ub･ Lowe rus edc a rprlC eSandc oncernsove rf utur ei ncomel ea dmo repe o-
    plet ot ur
    nt he i
    rof トlea sec arsba ckt ot hel es sorr athe rt ha ne xerc ISl
    ngt he iro ptlOn
    tobuy･Thel arge rthes ha reofne wc arss oldt hroughl ea sl
    ng,t hel a r
    ge rt heun-
    stoppa bl eflowofr eturni ngVe hicles. Pricesa ref orceddowne ve nf arthe r,a ndpr o -

    duc t
    ionc utsmus tbee ve nde e per,slgni ficantlye rodingpr ofits.
    Thet eam us edt heba tht ubdi agra mi npr es enta tionst os eniorma na ge r
    s
    throughoutt hef irm,i nc ludinga llbr andma na ge rs.Ofc our sethef orma la na l
    ys is,
    mode ls tructure, andot he rdet ail
    swe repr e
    se nte d,butt heba thtubpr ovi de dapow-
    erfulme taphort ocommuni catea ni mpo r
    tantdyna mi ci ns i
    ghta ndhe lpe di nt he
    dific ultpr oc essofc ha ngi ngme ntalmode ls.

    FIGURE2-4 Whydoshort
    ･ter
    mleasesmakeusmorevul
    ner
    abl
    e
    Bathtub dur
    inganeconomicdownt
    urn?
    diagramto
    iHust
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    oduc
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    wCarSubs
    tit
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    theimpact
    oHeaslng

    .Wheni
    ndust
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    -Newcart r
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    -Somer et
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    ●Pr
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    tert
    hesuppl
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    ubs
    tit
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    sI
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    Ch
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    yst
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    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 53

    Puda ra ndh i st eam ma det woma inr eco mme nda ti


    o nst oZa rellaa ndot he r
    senio rma na ge rsi nNAO･ First ,GM s ho ulds hi f
    ti nc e nt
    ive st of a vorl onge rl e a ses
    andmovet hemi xo ft hel e aslngpo r tfoliot owa rdahi ghera ve ra get erm.Se c ond,
    theyr e comme n de dt ha ta llpr o pos a l
    sf orne wp rlClnga ndma rke tingpr og rm sf
    a or一
    ma llyi nc lud ea na lys iso ft he iri mpa c to nt heus edc a rma rke ta ndi tsf ee dba ckt o
    thene wc a rma rke t. The yr ec o mme nde dt hema rke tr e sear cho rga niz ationc re ate
    n ewc lin icst oa ss essne w/ us e d/le asec o ns ume rc ho ic ebe ha vi ors ot ha tup- to- da te
    da t
    awo ul dbea va ilabl eona nongol ngba sis.The ya l sos uppo r tedc ha ngl ngt he
    incen ti
    ve sa ndme tricsf o rma na ge rso ft hec a rg roupst oi nc ludet hepr ofito rl os s
    GMACr e alizeda sar e s
    ul to fl e aslng,
    Ma n ybr andma na gersa ndbr anda na lys tswe rei nitiallyo ppos edt ot he s er ec-
    omme nda tions ･The ya rgue dt ha tc ons ume r sha dbe enc ond itio ne dtopr e fers ho rt-
    terml e as es･Co mpe titionwa si nt ens ea ndGM' sma rke ts ha reha dbe e ns lippl ng.
    Fo r
    d,i npa rti
    c ula r,wa sa ggr es sive l
    ypus hi ng2- ye a rl ea seswi t
    hs igni fica nts ub-
    ventio n;unl es sGM r e spo nde di nki nd,t he ya rgue d,ma r ke ts ha rewo ulds ufe r
    mo re ･Gi ve nthet reme ndo uspr e ssuret he yf ace dt os ta yc ompe titive,the ywe reno t
    wi l
    lingt os acrificema rke ts ha rea ndpr o fitst oda yt oa vo idt hepos sibilityt ha tl e asl
    lngmi gh tle adt opr obl emsi naf e wye rs
    a .Br andma na gersa ndt hes ale so rga ni za-
    tionputs trongpr ess ur eont hes e nio rma na g eme nto fNAOt oi nc rea ser e s idua l
    levels･ The ypo int edt os tr
    ongus edc arde ma nda ndr isingus e dc a rpr i
    c est OJ uS ti
    fy
    increa sedr esidua ls .The ya lsoa rg ue dt ha ts ubve ntio nl eve lss ho uldbei nc r ea sed
    evenf urthe ra bo vet hehi ghe rr e sidua lst he ywe rer e c omme nd ing･ Fina lly, the ya r一
    guedf o rade cre asei nt hef ra ctio nofo ff-le aseve hi c lesGM pr edicte di two uld
    havet ot akeba c ka tle asee nd. Thec os tso fs u bve nt iona rede fe rredbe ca us et hey
    areo nlyr ealize dwhe nc arsc omeo ffle a se. Ac c ount lngr ule sr equl reC arma ke r sto
    seta sider e serv est oc ove rt hee xpe cte dc os to fs ubve ntion; the ser ese rve sr e d uc e
    curren tpe riode a rnlngS ･Thea mo unts eta sid ei nr es erve sd epe ndso nt hef ra ction
    ofc arst he ye x pe ctt ober e t
    ur ne d. Ifc us tome r se xe rc i
    s ethe iro ptlOnt Obuywhe n
    he
    t irle asee xpl reSt he nGMACne ve rha st opa yt hed iffere nc ebe t
    we ent hes ub-
    vente dr e si
    d ua la ndma rke tva lue. Ma n ybr andma na g ersbe lieve dt ha tthes trong
    usedc a rma rk etme a ntr ese rve swe ret oohi g ha ndc o ulds af elybec ut, allowi ngt he
    card ivis i
    o nst os howhi g he rc ur rentpe riodpr ofitswhi lei nc rea singma rke ts ha re.
    The ys uppo rtedt he i
    rc asewi ths pr ea ds he et sinwhi c hr ecen tt rendst owa rdhi g he r
    usedc arpr lC eSa ndhi ghe rc us to me rr ete nti ono fo f f-leaseve hic l
    e swe rea ss ume d
    toc ont inue ,tha ti s ,inwhi cha llf eed ba c ksbe twe e nt hene wa ndus edma rke ts
    we r
    ec ut .
    Thed yna mi cmod el, i
    nc o ntr ast,sugg es t
    e dt ha tus edc arpr lCe SWO ulds oo nde -
    cli
    nea st hel arg evol umeofl e a seda ndf le e tve hi cl ess o ldi nt hel as tf ewye a
    r s
    reentere dt hema rke t.Thet ea mヲ sa na lys iss ug ge ste ds omeo ft hes urgei nus e dc a r
    prlCeSWa sat e mpor a rybl ipge ne ra t
    e dbyt heus e dc ars upe rsto resa st he ybo ug ht
    heavilyt os toc kt he i
    rl o ts.Whe nt hatpe riodo fi nve nt o rybui ldinge nde d, us e dc a r
    saleswo ulds lumpwhi let hef lOw ofc ar sc omi ngOf fle asec ont inue d.Asus ed
    prlCeSf e l
    lbe lowt hec ont r acte dr e sidua ls,mo rec us tome rswo uldt e rmi na tet he ir
    leas
    e se a rl
    ya ndf ewe rwo ul de xe rciset he iro pt iont Obu y,de c re aslngt her ete nt ion
    frac
    tio na ndboo stingt hes uppl yo fl atemod e lus edc a rss t
    ill mo re. GM woul dha ve
    totakeas ign i
    fica ntc ha rgea ga lnS te arnl ngSf o rr esid ua l r
    ec onc i
    liation, andne wc a r
    saleswou lds uffe ra sc us tome r so pt edf orl a temo de lo fl lea seve hi c
    le s.
    5
    4 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    Seniorma nage r
    satNAOde ci
    dedtofocuson36-t
    o48-mont ht
    ermsandelim-
    i
    nated2-yearleases.Theyal
    sochosenottoinc
    reas
    eresi
    dua
    lva l
    uesandmove dto
    f
    ullaccr
    ua lofresidualr
    iski
    ncalc
    ulat
    ingreser
    ves.
    Thesedecis
    ionsmadesubven-
    t
    ionmuc hmo ree xpensi
    vetobr
    andma nagersandr
    ais
    edlea
    s epayment
    s.

    2
    .2.
    4 ぎ
    mpa
    cta
    ndF
    oHow･
    up
    In1 997af loodofof f-le aseve hiclesi nunda tedthema rke t･Us edc arpr l
    C eSf el
    ls i
    g-
    nifi
    c antly( Figur e21 5) .Theda t
    as howt hea ggrega t
    ef ora llus e
    dca rs;thed ropf or
    lat
    emode lve hi c
    leswa smuc hs teepe ra ndwa smos ts everei nt hes egme nt sin
    whi chl e as
    ingha dg r ownmos tra pidly.
    Aspr lCeSf e
    ll,fewe rc ustome rsopt edt oke ept he irca rs.TheCons ume rBa nkl
    lngAs sociationr epo rtedt ha tthef rac t
    iono fve hiclesf rome xpl r
    lngf ull-terml ea s
    es
    ret
    ur ne dtol ess or
    sJ umpe df r
    om29%i n1 997t o39%i n1 998･ Aboutt hree-qua rter
    s
    ofallof f-leaseve hic lesr etume dtol e ssor si ncurredl os ses; t
    hea ve ragel ossi n1 998
    wa s$1 878pe rve hicle ,220%mor etha nt hea veragef or1 993.
    GM' se arlya ctionhe lpe di ta voi dt he sel osses ,whi l
    eot he rca rma ke rsfound
    thems e l
    vesf acinghuger eco ncili
    a ti
    onc ha rge s.Prof i
    tsa tFor dCr editCo rporation
    fel
    l$41 0mi llioni n1 997C ompa redt 01 996,a28% dr op,l a
    rge l
    yduet ol osseson
    offl
    le aseve hic l
    es.AtGMAC,ne ti ncomef rom a ut omot ivef i
    nanc lngo perations
    fel
    lonl y$36mi ll
    ion, lesst han4%, a ndove rallGMACpr ofitsrosemor et han6%.
    In1 997s everalca rma ker s
    ,inc ludi ngFor da ndNi s sanUSA, attempt edt opr op
    upwhol esalepr icesf o rthe irc arsbypa yi ngde a l
    erst oke epof トl easec arsi nstead
    ofretur ningthe mt ot hema nufa cturerf ors alea tauc tion. Fordpa i
    dde alers$700t o
    $6000( de pe ndingont hemode l)f ore a ch21 ye arOl dof f l
    lea seve hiclet hede al
    er
    agree dt oke e p,dippi ngI nt oitsr e s
    idua lr eservesf ort hef irsttimet odos o. This
    policyr educ e dthenumbe rof2- ye ar-oldc a rssolda ta uction,butofc our se,since
    ret
    ent ionoft hesec ar sa dde dt ode a l
    e rinve ntories,thenumbe roft hesec arsdea le
    rs
    boughta ta uc t
    ionf ellbyt hes amea mo unt ,S owhol e salepr icesc ontinue dt os l
    ide.
    In1 998GECa pi tald roppe di tspa rtne r shipwi thChr ys lertofina ncel easesbe -
    cause ,asAut omot iveNe ws( 24Augus t,p.1 )repor t
    e d,

    FIGURE2-5
    Usedcarprl
    CeS,
    ト
    0
    5
    i

    1989-1999
    00

    Jndexsh owsth
    e
    L= 寸?N
    ■
    4
    0
    ︼l

    usedc arandtruc
    k
    componen toft
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    l
    3
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    USCon sumer
    9

    PriceI
    nde x,
    6
    L

    2
    0
    l
    ll

    seasonaH y
    adjust
    ed.

    1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000


    So
    urc
    e:USBu
    rea
    uof
    Lab
    orS
    tat
    i
    sti
    cs
    ,se
    ri
    esCUSRO
    OOSE
    TAO
    2.
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
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    nAc
    ti
    on 5
    5

    GECa pit
    alAut
    oFinanci
    alServi
    cesg
    otburnedonres
    idual
    -va
    luelos
    sesin1997.
    Mu c
    ho ft
    hatwasduetoo f
    f-
    lea
    sepro
    ductsfr
    omCh r
    ysler...
    GECa pita
    lcit
    ed
    re
    sidua
    lloss
    esasonereaso
    nforthede
    cli
    neinopera
    ti
    ngP r
    ofi
    tsfo
    rCo nsumer
    Ser
    vices,
    theGEu ni
    ttha
    tincl
    udesAut
    oFi n
    anci
    alServ
    ices
    .Prof
    it
    sfellf
    rom
    $1.
    3bill
    ionin1
    9 9
    6to$ 563mill
    ion[
    in1997].
    In1 998ne ti ncomea tFor dCr editrose$53mi lli
    onove rthede presse dleve lof
    1997butr ema ined25% be lowt hene tfor1 996･4GMAC' snetona ut
    of i
    nanc lng
    rose$74mi llionove r1 997,ar i
    seof4% ove r1 996,a ndt otalGMACpr ofitfor
    1998r os e$1 81mi l
    li
    onove r1996,aga i
    nof1 5%.I n1 998Fo rda ndot herc ar -

    ma kersbe l
    ate d
    l yfoll
    owe dGM' Sleada ndbe gant omovea wa yf rom s hort-t
    erm
    leasl
    ng.
    Sinc e1 996t hele asl
    ngmode lhasbe enupda te
    ds e
    vera lti
    mes ,disaggre gated
    furt
    hert ose paratethec ara ndl i
    ghttruc kse gme nts,andus edtoe xami nei ssues
    sucha ss al
    e so ffleetve hicles
    .Themode lisnow us edona nongol ngba sisby
    NAO' sPor tfolioPriclngTe am,thegr oupr espons i
    bl eforre vi
    ewa nda pprova lof
    allprl
    C lnga ndi II
    Centivepr ogramsi nNor thAme rica･
    Puda r,nowDi rectoroft heDSC( rename dt heStrategySuppor tCe nter[SSC] )
    ,
    report
    st hatt heSSC c ontinuestoa ppl ysys tem dyna mics ,inc ombi na ti
    onwi th
    othera na l
    yticme t
    hods ,toawi derangeofi ss ues,from negot i
    atingJ OlntVe ntures
    wlthfo reigngo vernme ntstodes i
    gningbus i
    ne ssplansf orne wpr oduc ts,servic es
    ,
    andbus i
    ne ssun its
    .

    2.
    3 0 NTl
    MEAN【 3BL
    )uNDEF 旧GET:
    THEDYNAMI
    CSOFPROJECTMANAGEMENT5
    In1 970,I ngal1sShi pbui l
    dingofPa scagoul a,Mi ss
    issIPPl,wonama jorC Ont r
    aC ttO
    bui ldafle e tof30ne wdes troyer sfort heUSNa vy･Combi ne dwi thits1 969c on-
    trac tfr9LHAs(
    o ana mphi biousa ssault/ai
    rcraf
    tc arr
    ier),I ngallsf oundi t
    s elfint he
    ha ppypos itionofl a ndingt wooft hel argestshipbuildingpr ogr amsi nthewor ld
    andl ooke df orwa rdt ohe a l
    thys alesa ndpr ofit
    sf orye a rst oc ome.Byt hemi d1
    1970S ,howe ver,Inga l
    lswa sinde ept r
    o uble,f
    a ci
    ngc os tove rrunspr ojectedt oe xI
    ce ed$500mi ll
    ion. Wi t
    ha nnua ls al
    e sint hemi d-1970sof$500-800mi llion,t he
    ove r r
    unt hr eate
    nedt os inkl nga l
    l s,andi tsparentLi t
    tonl ndus tries ,alt
    oge 血e r.Ad-
    juste dfori nf
    la ti
    ont heove runwoul
    r de xc eed$1 .
    5bi ll
    ioni n1 999dol lar
    s .
    Bothc ontract
    swe rea wa rdeda sto t
    a lpackagepr ocure me nt proj e
    c t
    sWi thaf i
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    fixe d-pri
    c ec ontra
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    r turei nwhi chI ngals"
    l waspr ovi de donl ywi t
    hthepe rfo r
    -
    ma nces pec if
    icati
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    yr espons ibl efora l
    ls yst
    em de sign,
    de tailed des ign,ma terialspr oc ureme nt ,plannlng,t eS tlng,a nd c onstruc t
    ionH
    (Coo per1 980, p.22) ｡
    Bothpr ogramsi nvol vedi nnova tivea ndtechnica l
    lys ophi sticatedne wdes igns ･
    TheDDc la ssmultimi ssi
    ondes troyerswe retwicea slargea sear l
    ier" ti
    nc ans .
    "The

    4
    Exclu
    dingone-
    t
    imeincomefr
    oma s
    sets
    ales
    ･
    5
    Thi
    ss e
    cti
    onisba
    sedonCo o
    per(1
    980)andper
    son
    alcommunic
    ati
    onwit
    hKenCo op
    er
    (
    pre
    si
    dent
    ,Pugh-Robe
    rt
    s ss
    A oci
    ate
    s),
    RichGoldb
    ach(f
    ormer
    lywit
    hIngal
    ls
    n-i
    t
    tonInd
    ust
    ie
    r san
    d
    c
    urr
    ent
    lypre
    side
    nt,
    Me t
    roMa c
    hin
    eCo r
    pora
    ti
    on),a
    ndmanyothe
    rsatPug
    h-Rober
    tsAss
    oci
    at
    es.
    Ⅰ
    'mgra
    tef
    ulfort
    hei
    rhel
    p.
    56 P
    art
    ∫Pe
    rs
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    LHAwa salsoane ntirelyn ewde si


    g n. Mor et han2 0S to r
    iesh i
    gha ndth reef ootball
    fiel
    dsl ong, eachLHAc a rr
    iesac o mpl eme ntof2 000ba ttl
    e -
    readyMa ri
    ne sa nd200
    Comba tve hicl
    est ha tc anbed eploye dbyl andingc ra f
    ta nds everaldoz enhe li
    -
    copte r
    s.TheDDa ndLHAc ont r
    a ct
    sr e quire dama s s
    ivemo bil
    izat
    iono flnga lls're
    -
    sourc es.Al r
    eadyo neo fthel arge sts hipya r dsint hewo r
    ld,Inga l
    lsdou bledi t
    s
    wo rkforcet omo ret ha n20, 000.Dur ingt hi st i
    met he rewe r
    es hortageso fso me
    skil
    le dtradesa ndc ri
    tica lma t
    e r
    ials. Inga llsa lsoha dt oc r e
    atene wo rgani zati
    ona l
    structurestoma na gethet wopr og rams .
    La r
    ge -scal
    epr qJectsa reamo ngt hemos timpo r
    tanta ndcons i
    stentlymi sman -

    agede nd eavorsinmo der nsociety.Large -scalepr ojectsi nc l


    udethede signa ndc on-
    str
    uc ti
    ono fc i
    vilwo rksa ndinfrastruc ture( e.g.,bridge s,tunnels,powe rpl ants,and
    tel
    ec ommuni cati
    onsne two r
    ks),mi lit
    a rys ys t
    e ms( e.g"a i
    rc r
    aft
    ,ships,andwe apons
    systems ),andne wpr od uctsine ve ryi ndus try( e.g"s o ftwa r
    e,automo bile s,semi-
    cond uctorc hi
    pde sign, andwa ferfa bc o nstruc ti
    on) .
    Proje c
    tsofa llt y
    pe sr outinelye xpe rienc ec osto ve rruns,delays,a ndq ualit
    y
    problems .
    Coo pe ra ndMul l
    en( 1993)e xa mi ne das ampl eo flar
    gec ivi
    liana ndmi l
    -
    ita
    rypr ojec t
    s(ave raging1 30,000pe rs on-ho ur sofpl an nedwo r
    ko vera bo utaye a
    r
    forthec ivili
    anpr oje ct
    sa nd170, 000pe rson- ho ursofpl anne dwo rkove rmo rethan
    2ye arsf orthemi li
    tarypr oj
    ects).The yf oundc omme rc ia
    lpr o
    jectscos t1 40%a nd
    took1 90%a slonga so rig i
    nall
    ys che d uled, whi lede fens eproject
    sc ost31 0%oft he
    orlglnale s
    timate sa ndt oo k46 0%a sl ongt oc o mpl e
    te .
    De lays,costove rruns ,andq ualitypr obl emsi nc o mme rci
    alne wp roduc tde-
    velopme ntc anki llac ompa ny,pa rt
    icul arlyi nhi gh-ve locltyindustri
    ess ucha ssoft
    -
    wa r
    ea ndhi g
    ht echno logy .
    Ov errunsa ndde laysi nc i
    v i
    lwo rksandmi litaryp roject
    s
    cana fe ctthee c onomi cvi t
    alityofar egio na ndt hea bil
    ityofana t
    iont ode fend
    its
    elf'
    .

    2.
    3.1 TheCl
    aim
    TheNa vya ndI nga l
    lsdi sa
    gr eeds harplyove rt hec a
    us e soft hede laysa ndc ost
    ove 汀un.I nga l
    lsbe li
    eve dthema jo rit
    yO fthec os tove rrunwa sc ause dbyt hea c-
    tio
    nso ft heNa vy. Asisc ommo ni nl arge,lengt hypr qJ ects, thet echnol og leSand
    systemst obeus edi ntheDDa ndLHAs hipswe reno tma tur ea tthet imet hecon-
    tra
    c tswe rea wa r
    de d.Technol ogie sf orna viga tion, intellige nce ,communi cat
    ions,
    andwe apo nss ystems,f orexa mpl e ,we rea dva nc i
    ngr apidl y,a ndt heNa vyna
    t u -

    ral
    lys oug htt oinc or
    po rat
    et hemos tup- to-da t
    es ys t
    emsi nt hes hips ･Ri chGol d-
    bach, t
    he nas e ni
    o rmana gera tlnga llsando neo ft heke ypa r t
    iclpant Sint hec la
    im,
    comme ntedt hat" Ingall
    swa sc onvi nce dt hatt hegove rnme nti nterfere dwi ththe
    deslgnf ort heLHAf ro mt hes tar tb ymi cro-ma na glngt hede signpr oc ess.
    "As
    high-levelde sign,de t
    a i
    ledde si
    gn,a nde venc ons tr
    uc t
    ionpr oc e
    ede d,I nga ll
    sr e-
    ceivedma nyt ho usandso fde s
    ig nc ha nge s血･ omt heNa v y.I nga l
    lsbe li
    e vedtha t
    muc hoft heove rrunwa sc ause dbyt hei mpos itionoft he sed e signc ha nge s.After
    theNa vyr epe ate
    dl yrefusedt oc ompe ns a
    tel nga llsf orthe sec osts,Inga llsb r
    oug ht
    ac lai
    ma gainsttheNa v ytor ecove rt he$500mi llioni nl os s
    e site xpe cted.
    Suingyo urcus t
    ome rsisa lwa yst ri
    cky. ht hec aseo fl nga llsitwa spa rti
    cularly
    delicat
    e.I nga l
    lsbr oughtthec laime arly,whi let het wopr og ramss til
    lha dma ny
    yearstor unJnga llshadt oc ontin uet oma na get het wopr og ramsa ndma i
    ntai
    na
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 57

    goodwor kingr ela t


    ions hipwi ththeNa vywhi les imul taneouslypur suingt hec l
    aim･
    Fur t
    he r,sincecomme rcials hipbui l
    dingwasi ndecl inei ntheUS,t heNa vywa s
    Inga l
    ls'mos timpor t
    a ntc us tome randwoul dbef ort hei ndefinitefut ure･6
    TheNa vyc once dedt ha titha dge ne rate
    dt hedes ignc hangesbuta rgue dthat
    theirimpac twasl imi tedt ot hedi r
    ec tcos tofr eiss
    ul ngt hes pec ifi
    ca tionsa ndre-
    wor kingt hea fe ctede ngi ne eringdr awl ngS･Thet ota lcos toft hesedi r ecti mpac t
    s
    wa sas ma l
    lf ra
    c tionoft het otalclaimJnga llsc ounte redt hatades ignc hangec ould
    createmuc hl arge rcos ts,f ore xampl e,bya lter l
    ngt hes equenceoft a sksa ndr
    -e
    qulrlngove rtimea nduns c he duledhi ringt hati nterfe redwi thot herphas esoft he
    wor k,di lutede xpe rienc e,a ndr educe dpr oduc t i
    vit
    yeve ni nwor kphas esnotdi -
    rectl
    ya fect edbyc ha ngeor ders.Inga l
    lsbe lieve ds uc hr i
    pplee f
    fect scoul dmul ti
    -
    plythedi rectimpa c tofac ha ngenot icema nyt i mes ,leadingt os lgnific antove ral
    l
    Hdelaya nddi srupt lOn. "
    TheNa vycount e redt ha tthes uppos edde l
    a ya nddi snlptl
    OnWe rea ctuallythe
    resultofcont ra
    c tormi s ma na geme ntorde l
    iber ateunde rbiddingt owi nt hec ontract
    .
    Di s
    put esove rthede laya nddi s r
    uptlOnCOmpOne ntOfpr iorcl aimst hr oughoutt he
    de f
    ens eindus t
    ryof tendr a gge doutove rma nyyea r s･ TheNa vyhadneve rpa i
    da
    signifi
    ca ntdel aya nddi supt
    r ionC lam.
    i

    2.
    3.2 書
    nit
    iaEModelDeveJ
    opmenモ
    Ingall
    ss pentseveralyea rspursul ngt hec laim,butt radi t
    iona lpr oj ectma nagement
    toolsdidnotpr ovideamea nst oqua ntifyt her lPPlee ffect s.Inga llsturne
    dt o
    system dyna micst oqua nt
    ifyt hede laya nddi s
    uPt
    r lOnC reat edbyNa vydesign
    changes ･Themode l,deve lope dbyPugh-Robe rtsAs soci atesofCa mbrdge,
    i
    Ma ssachusett
    s,simul ate
    da llpha s esoft heDD a ndLHApr oj ects,from t heaward
    ofthec ontra
    cttot hedel ive
    ryoft hel astshi p,then5yea rsi nt hef uture.
    Themode lultima telycont ainedma nyt housa ndsofequa t
    ions ,ave r
    ylarge
    mode lindeed(espe cia
    llycons i
    de ringt hes t
    a teofcomput ert ec hnol ogya ttheti
    me).
    Itbegan,howe ver,asamuc hs ma llermode ldes i
    gnedt oillumi na tethebas icf
    eed -

    backst hatmi ghtber esponsiblef orr i


    pplee fects .Themodel ingt eam wor ked
    closel
    ywi thlngalls'clai
    m ma nage mentor ga ni
    zation, includi ngma nagers丘･om al
    l
    ma j
    orPhas esofea c
    hpr ograma ndke ya tt
    ome ys.Lea dmode lerKe nCoope rde-
    scri
    bedt heproc e
    sst hiswa y( 1980,pp.26- 27):
    TheInga l
    lsprojectteamg uidedandr eviewedt hede ci
    siono fwha telemen t
    s
    toincludei nthemo del,
    a ndwi thwha tme asuresandi nwha tdetai
    ltoinclude
    the
    m...l D] ozenso findivid ual
    sinallstageso fshipbuildi
    ng, fromwo rkers
    thr
    oug hvi cepre s
    idents,we reinte
    rviewe d.Theyof feredqua lit
    ati
    veandq ua nt
    it
    ati
    ve
    obser
    va tionso nshipd esi
    gna ndconstrl
    ユCti
    on.Ast hede signoft hemo delbe ganto
    gel
    , t
    henume ricalda t
    areq ulrementSWe reClar
    i fi
    ed;ama ss
    iveda tacoll
    ectionef-
    fot
    r,lnC OnCertWi t
    hot here l
    e mentsofthec lai
    m, wa sunde r
    t aken.Theseda taand
    inf
    わrma tionp rovi
    de deno ughma t
    eri
    altoa ssembl eapr eli
    mi naryma t
    hema tica
    l
    mode lo fas l
    nglewo r
    kpha se.Theequa ions
    t ,pa r
    ame ters,andd etai
    ledoutput
    werer eviewedbyt heproje cttea
    m, ands everalmod elmodi ficati
    onsma de.

    6
    Dueinp a
    rtt
    oth
    eprob
    lemse
    nco
    unt
    ere
    dint
    hep
    rog
    ram,t
    henumb e
    ro fLHA
    sut
    li
    mat
    el
    y
    b
    uil
    twascutto5
    ･LHA5,t
    heUSSPel
    el
    iu
    ,wasc
    ompl
    et
    edinmid1980,aswast
    hel
    as
    tDDcl
    ass
    d
    est
    roy
    er,
    USSFl e
    tc
    her
    .
    58 Pa
    rtI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    2.
    3.3 Dynami
    cHypot
    hesi
    s
    Af ullde s
    c r
    lPt10nOft hef eedbac ks t
    ructureoft hemode li sbe yondt hes copeoft his
    discus sion;t hiss ectionpr ovidesonl yaf ewi llustrat
    ionsoft het ypeofr i
    ppl ee f-
    fectsthemode la ddres sed.
    Fi gure21 6s howsahi ghlys impl i
    fiedstoc ka ndflow s t
    ructuref o rtheflow of
    wor kwi thinas lngl epr q】e
    ctpha se.Thet asksc oul dbehi g h-le
    ve ls yste msdes i
    gn
    tasks,pr e
    pa rationofde tai
    lede nglneerlngdr awl ngS,OrC OnStuC
    r tionofaves sel.
    Ther ectangl esa ndva lvesr epres entthes t
    oc ka ndflow s tr
    uc t
    ur eoft hes ystem1 7
    Thes tocksr epr esentt hea ccumul at
    ionsofwor ki ndiffer entc ategor ies; t
    heva lves
    repres entthef lo woft asksthro ught hes yst
    em. I
    nitial
    lya lltasksa rei nt hes t
    ockof
    Wor kt obeDo ne. Compl eti
    ngat a
    skr equlr
    e Sreso urcesS uc ha sapr oduc ti
    vel abor
    forcewi tha ppr oprlateS kil
    ls;thenumbe randpr oduc ivi
    t t
    yOft hel aborf orceva r
    y
    ove rtimea spr oje ctco ndit
    ionsc hange.Ta s
    ksc anbedonec orrectlyori ncorrec t
    ly,
    depe ndi ngont hequa lityoft hewor k.Ta sksdonec orr ec t
    lya ddt ot hes tockof
    Wor kRe all
    yDonewhi letasksc ontai
    nlnge rrorsOfva rioust ypesa ddt othes tock
    ofUndi s cove redRe wo rk.Wor kqua l
    it
    yi sof t
    e nqul t
    el ow,a sne wI Pr Oduc tde vel-
    opme nta ndl a r
    ge -scalepr ojectsus uall
    yI nvolvene wt ec hnol ogies,ma terials
    ,a nd
    systemsa ndof teni nvol veuni quene wc irc
    ums tances.Coo pera ndMul len( 1993)

    GURE2-
    FI
    St
    oc
    6
    kandf 一
    ow
    P
    e
    o
    pl
    eP
    r
    od
    u
    c
    tv
    i
    t
    yQu
    a
    l
    i
    ty i

    st
    ructur
    eo fa
    pr
    ojectPhase
    Rec tang一 es
    repres entthe
    stockoft asks,
    Strai
    gh tlinesand
    valvesr epr esent
    fl
    owsoft ask s
    between
    categor i
    es
    (chap ter6) .
    Qual i
    tyi sthe
    fr
    ac t
    ionoft asks
    donec orrec t
    ly. Obs
    oJes
    cenc
    e
    Thedi agram i s Rat
    e
    nlgni
    ysi mpl i
    f
    ieci
    andomi
    t
    askc at
    tss
    egor
    ever
    i
    es
    al
    S
    cstomer
    andf lowsi ncluded Cha∩ge
    s
    i
    nt hef u川model . Sour
    ce:Ad
    apt
    edf
    r
    omad
    lag
    ramdevel
    opedb
    yPu
    gh-Ro
    ber
    t
    sAs
    soc
    ia
    tes
    ,Ca
    mbr
    i
    dge
    ,MA.Us
    edwi
    t
    h
    pe｢
    mlSS
    ion
    .

    7
    Mahe
    t mat
    i
    cay
    l
    l ,
    eac
    hst
    ocki
    sth
    ein
    teg
    ral
    oft
    hef
    lo
    wsi
    nle
    sst
    hef
    lo
    wso
    ut.
    Sto
    cksa
    ndf
    lo
    ws
    a
    redi
    sc
    uss
    edi
    nchap
    ter
    s6a
    nd7.
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 59

    foundt hea ve ra gef ra ctionofwor kdonecor rec tlyt hef irstt i


    mei nthe irs a mpl et o
    be689 u orc omme rcia lpr oj ectsa ndj us t3 4% f orde fe nsepr ojec ts.
    Uncove rlnge rror st akest imea ndr es ourc es .Of te n,e rr orsa reonl yde te ctedby
    adowns trea m phas e,a swhe nades i
    gnf la wi sdi scove r eddur ingt hecons tuc
    r tion
    phas e.Tas ksi nt hes toc kofundi scove redr ewor ka ret he refor epe rce ivedt obe
    compl e t
    ea nda ret reate dasdonebyt heor ga ni zation･ Di sc over yofe rror sbyqua l-
    1tya s sur anc e,t eS tlng,Oradowns t
    rea m pha s
    emovest hei mper fectlydonet as kst o
    thes t
    oc kofKnownRe wor k. Coope ra ndMul len( 1 993)f ounda ver ager ewor kdi sI
    cove ryde la ysofa bout9mont hsf orbot hci vi la ndmi lit
    a rypr o jec t
    s ,aS ignif i
    ca nt
    fract i
    onofs che dul e dpr oj ectdur ation･
    Cha ngesi nc us tome rs pec ificationsha vee fec t ss i
    mi l
    art ot hedi scove ryof
    error s .Spec ifica tionc ha ngesma kes omewor kpr evi ous l
    ydonec or rec t
    lyobs ole te,
    movi ngt hos et as ksf rom t hes toc kofWor kReal lyDonet ot hes toc kofKnown
    Re wor k.Thea ffe ctedpha semus tr eca llwor ki tpr e vi ous l
    yr el
    eas edt oot he rphas es
    anduponwhi cht hos edowns trea m pha sesha vebas edt heirownwor k.Theor 一
    ga niz ationmus tt he ni nc r eas et her esour cesa nda t
    t ent iondevot edt or ewor k,s low-
    1ngCOmpl e tionofr ema inlngbas e wor kt asksa ndpot e ntia ll
    ydi srupt lngt hee nt i
    r e
    pro jeC t18
    0bvi ous lyc us tome rc ha ngest hatma kec ompl e teddes ignwor kobs oletea r e
    cos tlybe ca us et hea ffec tedt a sksmus tber ewor ked;t hes ea r
    et hedi re ctimpa ctsof
    cha ngest heNa vywa swi llingt opa yf or.Butt hei ndi r ec te ffectsc anbema nyt imes
    large r.Fi gur e21 7S howsaf e w oft hef eedba ckst ha te xpl a i
    nhowt hei ndi recte f-
    fectsofc us tome rc ha ngescoul dbea mpl ifi
    ed.
    Asapr ojec tf a llsbe hindcont ractorsha veonl yaf e wc hoi ces ･The yca nputt he
    exi stingWOr kf or ceonove rtime,t husi nc reas lngt heef fec t
    ivenumbe rofpeopl e
    wor ki ngont hepr oje ct .Thi snega tiveorba l
    a nc ingf ee dba c ki sthei nt endedefe ct
    ofove rtimea ndi ss howni nt hedi agra m bys olidl i nes .Howe ve r,e xc es siveore x-
    tende dove rtimec aus esf atiguea ndbur nout .Pr oduc tivi tya ndqua l
    ityf a l
    l, reduc ing
    progr es sa ndi nc rea s l
    ngt hes toc kofundi scove redr ewor k.Bur nouta lsol eadst o
    abs ent ee is
    ma nda ttritionase mpl oye esr eques ttrans fe rsorqui t,reduc ingt henum-
    berofpeopl eont hepr o Je Ct･Thes euni nte nde de fe c ts ,s hownasdas he dl ines ,f orm
    pos itive( sel f-rei nfor c ing)f eedba ckst ha ta ctasvi ci ouscycl est ounde rcutt he
    progr es s-e a
    n nc
    h lnge ff ec tofove rtime. Toa voi dt hes idee ffectsofove rtimemor e
    peopl eca n ehib red( a not he rba lanc i
    ngl oop) .Butr a pi dhi r
    ingdi lut est hee xpe ri-
    enc ebas eoft hee mpl oye es IIft hepoolofqua lifiedwor ke rsint her e glOni ss ma ll
    relativet oih ringne e ds ,a cc ele ratedhi ri
    ngl owe r
    st hea ve ragequa li
    tyofa vaila bl e
    candi da t
    es . Rec r uitlngS tanda rdsof tene rodes ova ca nc iesca nbef ill
    e dqui c kly･ A ll
    theseefec t slowe rpr oduc tivltya nd qua litya nds l ow pr ogres se ve na sma nag e一
    me nts e ekst oboos thea dc ountands pee dpr ogr ess .

    8
    Mo s
    tla
    rgemi li
    ta
    ryandci
    vil
    ianpro
    jectssp
    eci
    fyde a
    dli
    nesf
    ord e
    li
    very
    ･Failu
    retomeetthe

    deadl
    in
    eleadstop e
    nlt
    a i
    es,kno
    wna sl
    iqui
    d at
    eddamages(LDs),
    forever
    yd a
    yt h
    ep r
    oje
    ctislate
    .
    ,
    LDscanrapi
    d l
    ymo untt
    oma nymill
    ion
    s･Ind i
    spu
    tessuchasdi
    scuss
    edhereth
    eLDsf ormthe
    pr
    lmarybasi
    sforthecust
    omer'
    scounte
    rcl
    ima
    a ga
    lnSthec
    t ontr
    act
    or･I
    nsevera
    l c
    asesf
    orwh i
    ch
    sys
    temdynamicsmo del
    shavebee
    nu se
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    timei sinc rea slnglyc ons ume dbyme etl


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    21
    3･4 TheModel
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    hati tisa ct
    ua llyqui tedifficultt oe nglneeramod el
    toge nerateap r
    e s
    ele ctedr e sult
    .Go ldbachc omme nted, "Fo rthe丘r stti
    met heNa v y
    sawt ha tlnga l
    lshadac red iblecase."Intens ivene go t
    iati
    o nsthe nbe ganatt hehi g h-
    estl eve lso fLittona ndt heNa vy. I
    nJ une1 9 78t hepa rt
    iess ettledo uto fc our t.In-
    ga l
    lsr e ceived$ 447mi lli
    o n.
    Thust hec l
    ientsf ort hemo delingwo rkwe reno tonlyI ngall s'ma nage me nta nd
    attorne ysbuta lsothec o urta ndtheNa vy. Itma ys eemc ounte ri
    n t
    ui t
    ivet oi nclud e
    theo ppos lngS i
    dea mo ngt hec l
    ientg r
    ou pfo ramode luse dinal aws uit.
    An di nde ed
    theNa vya t
    temptedt od i
    sc redi
    tthemod ela ndha vei texc lude df r
    omt hepr ocee d-
    lngS .Howe ver,t
    ot hee xten tthemo de lbe camet hef ocus,eve nt hroug hthec rlt
    lqu e
    oft heNa vye xperts ,thes tr uct
    uresi nthemo dela ndt hedyna mi cst heyge ne rated
    startedt obe comet hec ommo nframe wo rkf ordi scus si
    onoft hec laimbya llpa r-
    ties.Thepr ocesso fc ha nglngme ntalmo de l
    swa swe l
    lunde r
    wa y.Thi spro ce ssha s
    sincebe eno bser
    ve di nma nyo t
    he rconflicts( see,e. g.,We ilandEt he r
    ton1 990, Re -
    iche l
    ta ndSt ema n1 990) .Ex per
    ienc esho wst hatt hebe ttertheo ppos i
    ti
    o ns 'unde r-
    stand ingoft hemode l,themo r
    elike l
    yl tWi llbei nflue ntialint her e s
    o l
    utiono fthe
    disput e.
    Tho ug ht hes ettlnghe rewa sal aws uit,t hepr oce s
    sa ppl iest oa nymo de l
    ing
    proje ct.Eve nwhe nt hec lientsfo rthewo rka rea llfrom t hes amema na ge me nt
    team, therewi l
    la l
    wa ysbed iferents i
    de sa ndf a ctions,pr opone ntsa ndo ppo ne nts
    ofe achpo li
    cy.Onl yt hei ntensivei nvolve me ntoft hec li
    e ntsi nt hemode l
    ing
    proc e s
    sc anc reatet heunde rst
    and i
    ngo ft hei ssue sne ededt oc hang ee ntrenc he d
    me nt almode l
    sandl eadt oc onsensusf ora ction.

    2.
    3.5 Cont
    inui
    ng】
    mpact
    Thes yste
    md ynami csmode lwa sthesoletechni
    ca lbasi
    sf ort
    hed el
    aya nddisrup-
    ti
    onc ompone ntofIngalls'clai
    ma galnSttheNa vy･ Est
    ima tesfromt hea t
    tor
    neys
    andl ngal
    lsma nagementH placethemode l
    'sdoll
    arc ontr
    ibutiont othes e
    ttl
    eme nt
    betwe en$170 -350mi ll
    ionH( Cooper1 980,pp.28 ).Buttheses ums, l
    argeasthe y
    are,underest
    ima tethebe nefi
    tsofthemo del
    ingpr ocess
    .Thel awsuitit
    selfcanbe
    viewe dasal argeprojectthatgener
    a t
    editsownr ippleeffects
    . Bya chie
    v i
    ngas et-
    tl
    eme ntal i
    tt
    leove r2ye arsafte
    rbeg i
    nningt hemode li
    ngp roces s(
    av er
    ys horti
    n-
    te
    rvali nsuchl ar
    gedi s
    pute s
    ),
    Thedi
    rec
    td ol
    larcost
    sofconti
    nuingthecl
    aime恥r twerea vo
    ided[l
    egalf
    eesand
    co
    urtcos
    ts]
    .Ev enmo r
    esigni
    fi
    cant,ho
    we ve
    r,wasthevastamountofmanageri
    al
    an
    dp r
    ofess
    ionalti
    mea ndta
    lent(
    a nen
    tir
    e"cla
    imo rga
    nizat
    ion"ofover100Inga
    ll
    s
    pe
    rson
    nel)th
    atwo uldhaveconti
    nuedtobespentonsomethin
    go t
    hert
    h a
    ns h
    ip
    de
    sig
    na ndconstr
    ucti
    on‥. Ab oveal
    l,t
    heeli
    min a
    ti
    ono ftheadv
    ersa
    ryrel
    ati
    onshi
    p
    be
    tweenlngal
    lsanditsbestc
    ustomerwasami l
    est
    oneac hi
    evement(
    Co o
    per1980,
    p.
    28).
    Sincethisgr
    oundbre
    aki
    ngwo rkPug h-Robe rtsando therfi
    rmsha veg oneo ntoap-
    plysystem dynamicst
    od is
    pute
    st otal
    ingma nybi l
    lionsofdollars.The serange
    from othermi l
    it
    aryandc omme rcialshi pbuil
    di ngpr oj
    ectstoa eros pacea nd
    we a
    ponss yst
    ems,powerpla
    nts,c
    ivilwo rkss ucha sthec r
    oss-c
    ha nnelt unnel,and
    soft
    wa repro
    ject
    s.I
    nmos tcas
    escontractorsus ethemode lsinactionsa ga i
    nstthei
    r
    custome r
    s.Ineachcas
    et hedefe
    nda ntsha ves o ughttode bunkt hemode l
    sa nd
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 6
    5

    exc
    ludethe
    mfrom t
    hea
    llowabl
    eexpe
    rttes
    timonybute
    a c
    hti
    met
    hemode
    lsha
    ve
    bee
    na l
    loweda
    ndhavecont
    ri
    but
    edtofavor
    ablese
    ttl
    ement
    s.
    Whi lethedol l
    arva lueoft hesea cio
    t nsi simpr essi
    vea ndofundoubt edbe nefit
    tot hepl a i
    nt i
    f fs,theda ma ge( thec os tove m n)ha sa l
    readybe endone ,andt hedi s-
    put ei sonl yove rwhopa ys .Ther ea lleve ragel i
    esi nus lngt hes emode lsproac
    -

    tive l
    ys oove rru nsa ndde laysa rea voi dedi nt hef i
    rstplac e.Si nc et hef i
    r stIngalls
    mode l
    ,ma nyor ganiz ationsha vegoneont oa ppl ys i
    mi larmode l
    st ot hema nage -
    me ntofl arge- sc al
    epr oje ctsinawi der angeofi ndustri
    es( fore xa mpl ess eesec
    .
    -

    tions6. 3.4a nd1 4.5)l lInga llsi t


    selfha sus edde s
    cenda nt soft ha tf irstmode lto
    he lpma na gevi rtual
    lye ve rypr ogr ams incet heLHAa ndDD. Thebe nefitsofs uch
    pr oactivemode linga reha rde rtoqua ntifybutl ikelyo utwe ight heva lueofdi s
    put e
    se ttl
    eme nt sma nyt l
    meS .
    Asonei llustration,Ri c hGol dba chl e ftlnga llsint hel ate1 970st ohe adup
    Me troMa chine, ashipya rdi nNor folk, Vlrgl ni
    a. The nsma lla nds truggl ing, Me t
    ro
    toda yl Sahi ghl ys uc c ess f
    ulya rds pe cili
    a z ingl nr ePalra ndr efitt
    i ngwor kf ort
    he
    Na vywi tha bout700e mpl oye esands al
    esofa bout$90ml ll
    ioI Vye a r. Goldba chin-
    troduc e dawi der angeofi nnova t
    ivema nage me ntpr acti
    cesi nc ludi nge mpl oyeein-
    vol veme nt･Thef ir
    mi sl OO% e mpl oye eowne d, withuni ve rsalpa r ti
    c ipationi nthe
    empl oye es toc kowne rshi ppl an. Me tr
    oha swons e
    ve ra
    la wa rdsf ort hehi ghqua L
    1t
    yOft heirwor k,inc ludi ngNa tiona lSma llBus inessPrimeCont r
    a ct oroft heYe a r
    andt heUSNa vyAEGI SExc e l
    lenc eAwa rd" fors upe r
    iorpe rfor ma nc einqua l
    ity,
    reliabilit
    y,de live rya ndc ost" -t hef irsteve rgl Ve ntOar e Palrya rd･
    Mode lsc ont i
    nuet opl aya nimpo r
    tantr ol
    e.Gol dbac hc ommi ss ione dthede -
    ve lopme ntofas i
    mul ationmode ltopr ojec tthef i
    nanc i
    alc ons e que nc esofva r
    ious
    de cisionsf orupt o1 0ye ar s.Me t
    rous est hemode ltoa ss essa cqui sitions ,capit
    a l
    i
    nve stme ntde c isi
    ons ,ne wve ntures, anda l
    la s
    pe ctsofbi ddi ngf orj obs .
    Web uil
    tt
    hemo deltoas peclif
    icat
    ion
    ]Ip r
    o v
    idedbasedonwha tIlea
    rnedfromthe
    l
    ng a
    llsmodel.Themo delhelpsthegovernmentunder
    stan
    do u
    rbi dsbet
    ter
    .Itle
    ts
    t
    heDCAAl De fe
    ns eCo ntr
    act Audit
    Ag enc
    y ,
    aDe par
    tmento fDe fe
    nseagencythat
    au
    d i
    tsdefe
    nsec ontr
    ac t
    orbidsa ndasses
    sesthei
    rabil
    it
    ytod othewo r
    k日o okata ト

    t
    ernat
    ivescenari
    os .
    Weus ethemo delin
    terac
    tiv
    elywiththem. Thereisanon-Si
    te
    DCAAa udi
    torwhok nowsth emo del
    .Shec a
    na skustoruna nysetofassumptl
    OnS,
    an
    dweus ua
    llyge tt
    hea nswe rbackinanh our(
    Go l
    dbach,personalcommu nic
    ati
    on,
    1999).
    Thefina
    nci
    als
    imula
    tionhasbe
    enve
    rye fe
    cti
    ve,butf
    armorei
    mpor
    tant
    ,Gol
    dba
    ch
    says,ar
    etheles
    sonshel ear
    nedaboutthechall
    engesofmana
    glngCOmpl
    ex
    Syst
    ems:
    Fo rt
    he[shi
    pbui
    ldin
    g]ind us
    tryithough
    tiwa sap r
    ett
    ys oph
    isti
    cat
    edma na
    ger,
    bu ti
    t
    changedmywh oleperspect
    ive.Inev
    erha dt
    heab i
    li
    tyIthinkIgotfro
    mwo rki
    ng
    withsyst
    emd yna
    mi cstoask"ho wwillt
    hisdec
    isio
    nr l
    ppleout?MIgottot
    hepolnt
    thatIhadth
    eme nta
    ls e
    lf-di
    sci
    plinet
    ofightmyImp ul
    sesandn otJ
    ustdoth
    ema cho
    h i
    t ngwhenthe
    re'
    sap roblem･Th epl
    aylngfi
    el
    dc hangeswhileyou'r
    eplay
    ingthe

    l
    ls
    eeal
    soAbde
    l-
    Hami
    dan
    dMa d
    nic
    k(198
    9a-C,
    199
    0,1
    991)
    ;Coop
    er(
    199
    3a-C
    ,199
    4);
    Coope
    r
    a
    ndMull
    en(1
    993)
    ;Fo
    rda
    ndSt
    er
    man(199
    8a-b)
    ;Home
    reta
    l.(
    199
    3);
    Wei
    landEt
    her
    to
    n(199
    0);
    a
    ndYour
    don(1
    993
    ).
    66 Pa
    rtIP
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    ga
    me.NowIaskhowcus
    tomer
    s,empl
    oy e
    es,Sup
    pli
    ersa
    ndsoonwil
    lre
    actt
    owhat
    wemigh
    tdo.
    Someti
    meslgeti
    tri
    ghtandsometi
    mesIdo t
    n'.
    I
    tper
    meat
    esev
    eryas
    ec
    p to
    fmyt h
    inking.
    I'madifer
    entp
    ers
    ontha
    nIwa s
    be
    for
    e.

    2.
    4 PLAYl
    NG THEMNNTENANCEGAME12
    In1 991 ,Wi ns tonLe de t,the nama na ge ri nGul fCoa stRe giona lMa nuf acturlng
    Se r
    vi ce sa tDuPont ,r ele
    f cte dont her es ul tsofa ni n-hous ebe nc hma rkings tudy
    doc ume nt lngal argega pbe twe enDuPont 'sma inte na nc ere corda ndt hos eoft he
    be s
    t-pr a cticec ompa ni esi nt hegl oba lc he mi calsindus try.
    Thebe nchma rkings tudyr eve aleda na ppa rentpa radox:DuPonts pe ntmor e
    onma int ena nc et ha ni ndus tryl ea de rsbutgotl essf ori t.DuPontha dt hehi ghe st
    numbe rofma inte nanc ee mpl oye e spe rdol larofpl antva lueye ti t
    sme chanics
    wor ke dmor eove rti
    me.Spa repa rtsi nve nt orieswe ree xc essiveye tthepl antsr e-
    1iedhe avi ly on c os tlye xpe ditedpr oc ur eme ntofc riti
    calc ompone nt s.Mos t
    dist
    ur bi ng,DuPonts pe nt1 0-3 0% mor eonma i
    nte na ncepe rdol larofpl antva l
    ue
    thant hei ndus t
    r yl eade rs ,whi lea tt hes amet imeove r allpla ntupt lmeWa sS Ome
    10-1 5% l owe r.
    Ma nype opl ef oundt her esultsoft hebe nchma rki ngs t
    udyt obec ount eri
    ntu-
    it
    ive. The irme nt almode lss ugges tedt ha te qui pme ntqua litys ho ulds ufe ra ndup-
    ti
    mes ho ul dbel owi nac ompa nyt ha tspe ndsl i
    ttl
    eonma intena nce, whi les pe nding
    mor eonma i
    nt ena nc es houl dyi eldhi gh- qua lit
    ye qui pme nta ndhi ghupt lme.How
    coul dDuPontbes pe ndi ngmor ea ndge t
    tlngl ess?
    Ma nype opl ebl a me dt hepr obl e m ont hedi fficul tc ompe ti
    tivee nvi ronme nt.
    Thec he mi calsi nd us t
    r yl Sma turea ndi nt e ns elyc ompe t
    itive･ Be ca us ethe rei sl i
    ttl
    e
    produc tdi fe rent iati
    onf o rbul k( Commodi ty)f eeds toc ks,C he mic a lma nuf a ct
    ur er
    s
    compe teonot he rdi me ns ions ,mos tlyc os ta ndde li
    ve ryr eli
    a bili
    ty･Si nc et hee arl
    y
    1970St hei ndus t
    r ywa shi tbyonec risisa fte ranot he r:Twos eve ree ne rgyc ris
    es
    wr eake dha vocwi thi nputa ndope ra t
    lngc os ts.Alwa ysc yc lica l
    ,thet hre ewor s
    tr e
    -
    cessionss inc etheGr ea tDe pr es sionc aus edwi despr ea de xc essc apa c i
    ty. Ne wc om-
    petitor sf r
    omt hePa cificr ima ndt heoi l-ric hna t
    ionsoft heMi ddleEa ste nte r
    e dthe
    ma rke t,Envi ronme nt alc onc e rnsa ndr e gul ationswe regr owl ng.
    Le de tkne wa llthi s; heha dlive dt h roughi tdur inghi s25ye ar swi thDuPont .
    Butbl a mi ngOut s i
    def or cesf ort hepr obl ems ,whi leps yc hol ogic al l
    ys afe,di dn' t
    provi dea nyl eve raget oi mpr ove. Le detf e lttha tthee xpl anationoft hepa ra doxl ay
    noti nt heout s i
    depr e ssur est hec ompa nyha df ac eddur ingt wot ur bule ntde cades
    buti ni tsr es pons et ot hos epr essur es.
    Le de ta ndhi st ea mne ede dawa yt oe xpl oret hewa ysi nwhi chdi ffere ntpa rt
    s
    ofthema int ena nc es ys temi nt era cted,e xpl a i
    nwhypa sta ttempt st oi mpr oveha d
    fail
    e d,a ndas s i
    s tint hedes ignofne w pol ic ies.Andt he yne ededt oe xpl aint hese
    compl e xdyna mi cst ot hee xpe rienc edpl antope ra tionsa ndma int ena nc epe ople
    w ho h adt ot akea c t
    ion.

    1Ⅰ
    2 '
    mindebt
    edt
    oWinst
    onP.Lede
    tandWinst
    on∫.Ledet
    (pr
    inc
    ipal
    s,TheManu
    fac
    tur
    ingGame),
    Pa
    ul Monus(BPChe
    micls
    a )
    ,andMarkPalC
    h(Col
    oradoColl
    ege
    )forper
    miss
    iont
    opre
    senthe
    t i
    r
    wor
    ka ndt
    h e
    iras
    si
    st
    anc
    einth
    ep r
    epa
    rat
    ionoft
    hemateri
    l･
    a Than
    ksa l
    sotoTo
    nyCard
    ela
    l,Mark
    Down l
    ng,
    VinceFl
    ynn,
    andt
    heresto
    fth
    eDuPo ntt
    eam.
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 67

    Le de ta ndhi st eambe ga nt hede ve l


    o pme ntofas i
    mul atio nmode lt oc apt ure
    thes yste mwi de,dy nami cbe nefitsa ndc os tsofdi fe rentma intena ncei nitiative s
    .
    The yde ve lope dthemode lwi t
    ht hea ssistanc eofa ne xpe ri
    e nc edmo dele r,Ma rk
    Paich. Themod elwa sd e ve lop edint e ractive ly, wi tht hepa rticlpationo fLe deta nd
    otherke yt eamme mbe rs ･Ther oleo ft hee xpe rtmod e lerwa smo reofac oa cha nd
    facil
    itato r,andt hemode lingp roc essi nvo lvede xte ns i
    veha nds -onwo rks hopsi n
    whi cht hemod elwa sdi scus sed,teste d, andc ha nge di nr ealt i
    mea sme mbe rso fthe
    mode li
    ngt eami dent i
    fiedpr oblemso ra re asne ed ingl mPr O Ve me nt.
    DuPont ,likemos tl argef i
    rms ,a lread yus edanu mbe rofma intenanc epl an-
    nlngt ool s.The set oolst endt of oc uso nt hede tailc o mpl e xltyOft hema intena nc e
    challenge ,fo rexa mpl e ,da tabase st ot rac kt hema inte nanc ehi st
    o ryo fe ac hi ndi-
    vidua lpi eceofe q uipme nt ,S t
    a t
    isti
    c almod elst oopt lmi z
    ema i
    nt enanc esc hed ules,
    schedul ings ystemst oa s slgnme cha ni cst opl a nne da ndr ea ctivewo rk,a nds oo n.
    The set oo lsa reimpo rtantf or仙eda y- to-da yma na ge me ntofl argepl antsbutt he y
    don'tc a pturet h edyna mi cc ompl exl tyOft hema int ena nc es ys tem. Whe ret hede -
    tai
    ledpl annl nga nds che d ulingmo de l stra ckede a chpumpa ndmot o
    ri nt hepl ant
    separa t
    e ly,thed yna micmod el divide da l
    le qulpme nti ntoJ us tthreec atego ries: op-
    erable, bro ke ndo wn, ort a ke ndownf orpl anne dma int ena nc e.Butwhe ret hee x-
    ist
    lngmo de l
    sa ssu me df a i
    lu rer atesa ndr epa lrc os tsa ndd ur ationswe reexo ge no us,
    t
    hedyna mi cmo delt reate dt he sef ac torse ndoge no us ly .
    I te nc ompa s
    s edt echni cal
    iss
    ue ss uc ha se qulpme ntC ha racteristics ;
    l og lS
    tic ali ssue ss uc ha ss parepa rtsa va
    i 一

    abili
    ty ,ma i
    nt enanc es che d ul i
    ng,a ndme c ha nica sslgnme ntS ;huma nr esou rcesi s-
    suess uc ha sme cha nics kill,tra ining,a ndmo tiva ti
    on;a ndf inanc iali ssue s
    i
    nc l
    udi ngma intena ncebud g ets,resou rc ea lloca ti
    o n, ando ve ra llplantpe rforma nc e.
    Thes ys temd ynami csmod e lwa sac ompl e me ntt o,a ndno tar epl ace
    me ntf or, ex-
    ist
    lngpl annlnga nds che du lingt oo ls.

    2.
    4.1 Dynami
    cHypot
    hes套
    s
    Us i
    ngt hemo delasal abor atorytode signa ndt estdife r
    ent polic ies ,t
    het e amg r a
    d-
    uallyde ve l
    o peda na ppre cia t
    ionf orthed ynami cc omple xltyO ft hema i
    nt enance
    system.Thedy namichypot hesisthe yde ve l
    ope de xplaine dt hepa radoxt hatDu
    Ponts pentmo reo nma inte nancea ndgo tlessf orltlntermsofu pt lmea nde q
    ulp-
    me ntreliability.
    Themode l
    ingpr oc essl edt os everali mpo rta
    ntc onc eptua ls hi ft
    si nt hewa y
    theyvi ewe dma ln
    tenanc e･Pr iort othemod elingwo rkma inte na ncewa sl ar
    gely
    seena sapr oc e
    ssofde fe ctc orrecti
    o n(repa i
    roff ailedequi pme nt)a ndt hema int
    e-
    nancef unc tionwa sviewe da sac osttobemi nimi zed･Thef irs tc onc eptua lshif
    t
    wa stoc ha ng ethef ocusf ro m defe c
    tc orrectiont ode fectpr e ve ntiona ndde fec
    t
    eli
    mi nation.Themode lt he ref
    orec e
    nt e
    r edont hephys icso fbr eakdo wnsr a
    ther
    thanthec ostmi ni
    mi zati
    onme nta l
    itytha tpreva il
    edt hroug houtt heo rga nizatio
    n.
    Equipme ntf ail
    swhe nas ufficientn umbe rofl atentdefectsa ccumul ateini t.La te
    nt
    defectsa rea nypr oblemt ha tmightu l
    tima tel
    yc a
    useaf a
    ilur e.The yI nc l
    udel eaky
    oilsealsi npumps ,dirtye qulpme ntt hatc ause sbe a
    ringwe ar,pumpa ndmot or
    shaftstha tareo uto ftruea ndc ausev ibration, poorlyc ali
    br atedi nstrume ntatio
    n,
    ands oo n. Ap umpwi thal eakyo ilsealo rdirt
    ybe ar
    lngSC anS till runbutwi lleven -

    t
    ua l
    lyf ailunl esstheselate ntde fectsaree limina t
    ed.
    68 Pa
    rtIPe
    rsp
    ect
    iv
    ean
    dPr
    oce
    ss

    Thet otalnumbe rofl atentdefectsi napl ant 'sequipme nti sas tock(Figur e
    21 8) ･De fectsa r
    ec r
    ea t
    edbyope rat
    ions( norma lwea randt ea r)andbycol l
    ateral
    da ma gea risi
    ngf rom br eakdowns( whe nt heoi llea ksoutoft hepumpbea ri
    nga nd
    thebea rlngS eizes ,thes haftmaybebe nt,themot orma yove r heat,a ndthevi bra-
    tionma ybr eakcoupl i
    ngsa ndpipes,i ntroduc ingne w probl ems) IMor esubtly,
    ma int e
    na nc eac t
    ivltyCa nC rea t
    enewde f
    e cts,throughme chani ce r
    ror sortheus eof
    poorqua lityr eplaceme ntpa rts
    ･Thelowe rthei ntrinsi
    cdes i
    gnqua lityoft heequ
    l P -

    me nt ,themor ede f e
    c t
    st hesea cti
    vit
    iesc reate.
    Thes tockofde fectsi sdr ai
    nedbyt wof lows :react
    ivema intena nce( r
    epairof
    failedequi pme nt)a ndpl anne dma i
    ntena nce( proa ct
    iverepa irofope rableequip -

    me nt ).
    13Ea choft hes ea ctiviti
    esformsaba lancingf eedbac kl oop. Asde f
    ectsa cI
    cumul ate, thecha nceofabr eakdowni nc reases.Br eakdownsl eadtomor ereacti
    ve

    GURE2-
    FI 8 Def
    ectcr
    eat
    ionandel
    i
    minat
    ion
    Thediagram i
    ssi
    mpli
    fi
    ed.l
    ntheful
    lmodelequl
    PmentWasdivi
    dedint
    ooperable,br
    oken
    down,andtakendownforpl
    annedmaint
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    thanassoci
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    def
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    egor
    y.

    1
    3pla
    nnedmai
    nte
    nan
    ceinc
    lude
    spre
    vent
    ive(
    ti
    me-b
    ase
    d)work
    ,e .
    g.
    ,r
    epla
    cewor
    npar
    tso
    n
    p
    ump se
    verynmont
    hs,
    andpre
    dic
    ti
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    ndit
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    n-b
    ase
    d)wok,
    r e.
    g,,r
    epl
    acewor
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    tso
    nap u
    mp
    i
    fvi
    brat
    ionex
    cee
    dsacer
    ta
    int
    oler
    anc
    e.
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
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    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 69

    ma int
    e nance,a nd,a f
    terr epalr,thee qul Pme ntisr eturnedt os ervic eandthes t
    oc k
    ofde fectsisr educ e
    d( theRe a c
    tiveMa intenanc eloopBl ).Simi la r
    ly,sc
    hedul ed
    ma int
    e nanceore qui
    pme ntmoni toringma yr evealthepr e
    senceo fl at
    entdefects(a
    vibrat
    ingpump, ano i
    llea k).Thee quipme ntisthent akenoutofs erviceandthede -
    fectsarec or
    r e
    c t
    e dbeforeabr eakdownoc curs(thePl annedMa i
    nte nanceloopB2) .
    Obvi ouslyb reakdownsr educ epl a
    ntupt l
    me.I na ddit
    ion,mos tplannedma in-
    te
    na ncea ct
    ivitya ls
    or ed ucesupt lmeS incepl anne dma intenanc ef requent
    lyr e-
    qulreSOpe rablee qul
    pme ntbet ake noutofs e
    rvices ot hene e
    de dwo r
    kc anbedone･
    Figure2- 8S howsonl yt hemos tba sicphys i
    csofde fectac cumul at
    ion.Thet wo
    nega t
    ivef eedba cksregula t
    ingt hes t
    ockofde fectsa ppeartobes ymme t
    ri
    cal:De -
    fectsca nbee limi nat
    ede it
    he rbypl anne dma intena nceorr epa irOff ail
    ede qulp-
    me nt.Thef ulls ystemi smo rec ompl ex,howe ver,a ndi nclude sanumbe rof
    positi
    ve,s el
    f-reinforci
    ngf eedbac ks( Figur e219) .

    Fr
    GURE2-
    9 Posi
    t
    ivef
    eedback
    sunder
    cut
    ti
    ngpl
    ann
    edmai
    nt
    enan
    ce

    +
    70 Pa
    rtIP
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    pec
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    vea
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    roc
    ess

    Cons ide rt hei mpa ctoft hef irstoi lc risi sinl a t


    e1 973. Inputa ndo pe ra tlngc os ts
    skyr oc ke te d. Butt hes eve rer ec essiont ha tbe ga ni n1 974me a ntc he mi ca lpr oduc -
    e rsc oul dnotpa ssthee ntirec os tinc rea seont oc ons ume rs. Unde ri ntens ef ina nc ial
    pr e ssur e,a llpl antsa ndf unc tionsha dt oc utc osts･ Ifma inte na nc ede pa rtme nt sa r e
    a ske dt oc ute xpe ns esne arlya lloft hec utha st oc omef r oma ct
    ivi tiess uc ha spl an一
    ml nga ndpr eve ntivema inte na nc e:Whe nc r i
    tic ale qul pme ntbr e aksdown,i tmus t
    bef ixe d. Att hes m et
    a ime, fina ncia lpr es sur el ea dst oot he ra c tions( e.g. ,pos tpon1
    1ngr e pla ce me ntofol der ,les sr e l
    iabl ee qul pme ntOrr unnl nge qul pme ntl onge ra nd
    mo r ea gg r essive lyt ha nor igi na ldes igns pe c i
    fic ationsi ndi ca te), whi chi nc r eas et he
    ma int ena nc ewo rkloa d. Wi thr esour c esf orpl anne dma inte na nc edi mi ni shi nga nd
    ma int ena nc ene edsi nc rea sing,t hes toc kofde fe ctsgr ows . Br e akdownsi nc rea s e.
    Br e akdownsc aus ec olla t
    e ralda ma ge,di re ctlyi nc re asingt hes toc kofde fe ctsf ur -
    the ra ndl e adi ngt os tillmor ebr e akdownsi navi ciousc yc l
    e( t
    hepos itivel oopRl ).
    Be ca us et het ot alnumbe rofme cha ni csi sl imi ted,mor ebr ea kdownsne c es sarily
    pul lme c ha ni csof fpl anne dwor ka sma na ge me ntr e as slgnSme cha ni cst or e pa lr
    wo rk. Butma nyme cha ni csals opr efe rr e pa lrWOr k. Apl anne dma intena nc ema n-
    age rinonepl antc omme nted,H We 'Veha ds eve ralpe o plewhos a yt he ywa ntt oge t
    invol ve di npr eve nt i
    vewor kbutwhe na nout agec o me sa nd[ the y]ha veac ha nc e
    towo r k1 4-1 6hour spe rwe ekove rtimet he ys ayt̀ ohe llwi t
    ht hisvi bra tion[ mo n-
    itor ing]s tuf F,Ⅰ'mgoi ngt ot heout a gea re a."' Wi thl es spl anne dwor k, br ea kdowns
    inc re as es tillmor e ,for ml ngt her e i
    nf or cingGot ot heOut agel oopR2.
    Ther isingbr e akdownr atemea nsmor ec riticale qul Pme ntWi llbeoutofs er -
    vi cea wa itlngr epa ir. Pla ntupt lmef alls.Pl a ntope r ator sf indi tha rde rt ome e tde -
    ma nd. Whe name c ha nicorma intena nc es upe rviso rr eq ue stst ha tac e rtainpl eC eOf
    equi pme ntbet ake nof fl inet oc or rec tl ate ntde fe cts,t heha rrie dl inema na ge ri s
    like lyt os ho uts ome thingl ikeH Ic anba re lyme etde ma nda siti sa ndyouwa ntme
    tot a ket hi sl inedo wn?Nowa yJfyouma int ena nc epe o plewe r edoi ngyourj ob, I
    woul dn' tha ves oma nydownpumpsi nt hef i
    r stpl ac e.Nowge toutofhe re,I '
    ve
    gotapl antt or un. "Theba l
    a nc ingTooBus yf orPM l oop( B3)me anso pe rator sa re
    les swi llingt ot akewor ki nge qul pme ntdownf orpl anne dma inte na nc ewhe nup-
    ti
    mei sl ow. Thes idee ffec toft ha tpol i
    c y, howe ve r, isaf ur theri nc r ea sei nde fect s
    andbr e akdownsa nds t
    illl owe rupt lme･Thepl ants lowl ys lide sdownt hes l
    ippe ry
    slope( re i
    nf o rcingl oopR3)i nt oat r apofhi ghbr eakdownsa ndl owupt ime,Wi th
    ne arl ya llma int ena nc er e sour c esde vot edt oc risisma na ge me nt ,f i
    r ef ight ing,a nd
    repa irwor k.
    Thepos itivef ee dba c ksRlt oR3Ope r atef a irlyq ui ckl ybuta renott heonl y
    vic iousc yc lest ha tc a ndr agapl anti ntot het ra pofl owr e liabi li
    tya ndhi ghc osts .
    Theo pe r ationa lf e edba c ksi nFi gure2- 9a ree mbe dde di nal arg ers ys tems howni n
    Fig ur e2- 1 0.
    Ahi ghe rbr e akdownr atei nc rea sesc os ts( duet oove rt
    ime, thenonr out inea nd
    of t
    e nha za rdousna tur eofout a ges ,theneedt oe xpe di tepa r
    tspr oc ure me nt ,c ol -
    later alda ma ge ,e tc.).Ther esul t
    ingpr es sur et oc utcos tsl eadst oar e duc tioni n
    t
    hequa lityofpa r ts,i nc rea slngt hes toc kofe qui pme ntde fe ctsa ndl ea dingt o
    stillmo rebr ea kdownsa nds tillhi ghe rc os ts( thePa rtQua lityl oo pR4) .Cos tpr es -
    sur ea lsor educ e si nves tme nti ne qul pme ntupgr a de sa ndo t
    he rde signi mpr ove -
    me nts ,s obr eakdownsi nc rea s ef ur ther( theDes ignI mpr ove me ntl oopR5) .As
    cos tsr iset rainl ngf orma inte na nc ewor ke r si sc ut,pa rticul arlyt raini ngl nPl anne d
    Ch
    ape
    tr2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 71

    GURE2-
    FJ 10 Addi
    t
    ional
    posi
    t
    ivef
    eedback
    sreadi
    ngt
    oar
    eac
    ti
    vemai
    nt
    enan
    cecul
    tur
    e
    Thecon
    ten
    tsoft
    her
    oundedr
    ect
    angl
    erepr
    esen
    tthes
    truc
    tur
    einFi e29
    gur - .

    ma intenancete c
    hniques( theTr ai
    ni ngloopR6) .Costpressurealsof orcesthema i
    n-
    tenanc edepa rtmentt odowns ize.Thef irsttogoa ret hepl annersa nds ched-
    ulers- unli
    keme chanics, he
    t ydon' ta ct
    uallyfixanything,a ndwi t
    hl essandless
    planne dma intenancegc･lngOnt he reislessforthemt odo･ Wi thouta dvanceplan-
    nlng,pa rtkits,e q
    ulpme nthi st
    ories ,ande nglneer
    lngdr a wlngSf わrma i
    ntenance
    wor ka reles sa vai
    lable,l owe r
    ing血equa li
    tyofwor ks t
    il
    lmor e( t
    hePl anning
    Ca pabili
    tyloopR7) .
    Apa ral
    le lsetofs e
    lf-re i
    nforcingf eedbacksope rat
    et oreduc ethema i
    ntenance
    budge te vena sc os
    tsr ise.Lowe rupt lmedi r
    ectl
    yc onstrai
    nspr oductiona nd
    thereforereve nue,forcl
    ngbudge tc ut
    sthrough outtheo rganizati
    on.Wo r s
    e,high
    72 P
    artI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    br ea kdo wnr a te sa ndl owupt l


    meme a nt hepl a nti sl essa bl et ome e ti t
    sde live ry
    c ommi t
    me n t
    s ･Asi td eve lopsar e put atio nf orpoo rd e l
    iv er yr e liabi lityt hepr lCei t
    c anc hargea ndvol umeo fbus ine ssi ta ttra ctsd ecline , f
    ur the re ro di ngr ev enuea nd
    pr of i
    ta ndf orc i
    ngs tillmo rebudge tc ut s. Cos t pr essur eri sess tillf ur t
    he r, acce l
    e rat-
    1ngt hepa rtqua lity, tra inlng,de sig ni mp r ov e me nt,a ndpl a nnl ngC apa bilityloo ps･
    The sel oo psa r es umma riz eda stheRe ve nueEr osio na ndRe put a tio nEr osio nloo ps
    (R8a ndR9) .
    Af terye arso fc os tpr e ssur e,DuPo nt ha dd e ve l
    o pe dac ultur eofr ea ctivema in-
    tena n ce･ Un r
    e liablee q ul pme nta ndf re que ntb reakdownsha dbe c o mea na cce pte d
    o ccu rrenc e. Or ga niz atio na lno rmsa ndr o utine sf orwr ltl
    ngupwo r ko rder s,sche d-
    u l
    ingma intena nc ee fo rt, ando rde ringpa r tsha dc o met or e le
    f c tawo rldo ffreq ue nt
    bre a kdo wns .Me cha ni css pe ntmos toft he irt imef ighti ngf ir es .Me cha ni cswho
    we res che d ule df orpl a nne dma inte na nc ewe rer out i
    ne lypul le do f ftodor eactive
    wo rk･Me cha ni csk ne wt he yc oul dwo rko ve rtimeo nar egul arba sisa ndc o ns id-
    ere do ve rt
    imepa yapa rtoft he i
    rr eg ulari nc o me･ Theknowl e dget ha te qulpme nt
    wa sun re li
    a bleha de ve nl edt oi ns ta llati
    o no fba cku ppumpsi nma nys ite s,embe d-
    dingt hel o w- reliabi li
    tyc ul tur eint heph ys ic a lla youta ndc apl ta lc os tso ft hepl a nts.
    Ast heye arspa s sedt hewo rkf orcei nc rea sing lyc ons istedofpe opl ewhoha dne v er
    ex pe rienc eda nyt hingot he rt ha nt her eac tiver e gime. Fo rt he m, thee q uipme ntWa s
    intrins ica l
    lyunr eliabl e ,l ow upt lmeWa sno rma l,a ndr e ac tivema i
    nt ena nc ewa s
    bus ine ssa sus ua l(theRe a ctiveCul tur el oo pRIO) .
    Ast hemode lde ve lope dt he yc a l
    ibr ate di tt or epr ese ntat y pi ca lpl ant ･Ⅰnt he
    ear ly1 9 90sat ypi calDuPo ntc he mi cal pla n twa sva lue da t$ 400mi lliona nds pe nt
    about3 -3. 5% o fitsva luea nnua llyonma inte na nce,o r$1 2t o$1 4mi ll
    io n/ye a r
    .
    Thes parepa rtss tores to c ke dmo ret ha n6 0,000pa rts.Ite mpl o ye da bout90ma i
    n-
    tena nc eme cha ni cswhomi g htc ompl e t
    ea sma nya s25, 000wo rko rde rspe rye a r
    .
    Ave rageu ptlmeWa s8 3. 5%.Ma inte na nc ee xpe ns esa c count e df o r1 5140% of
    dire ctpr oduc tio nc os ts,de pe ndi ngo nt hepr oc es sa ndpr oduc t.Thea mo untof
    mo ne yDuPo nts pe ntc o mpa nywi deonma inte nanc ei nt hel a t
    e1 98 0swa sa bo ut
    $1bi llion /
    ye ar ,as igni f ica ntf rac tiono fne ti nc o me .
    Onc et hemode lwa sa de qua te lyc alibr ate dt ot hehi st oric alda ta, t
    hene xts te p
    wa st od e s
    ig nhi ghl e ve ra gepo li
    c iest oe sc ape丘. omt her ea ctiver e gl me. Thet ea m
    simu latedt hei mpa c to fd ife rentpo lic ies, inc lud ingt hos et ha tha dbee nt riedi nt he
    pas ta ndf ailed. Ta ble21 1s howst her esul tso fs e l
    e cteds i mul ations .
    Opt iml Z l
    ngt heus eo fs che dul inga lo ne ,wi thi nt het r adi tiona lcos t-mi nimi z a-
    ti
    o nmi nds e t,ha do nlyamode stimpa ct･ Thr oug hbe tte rs che dul ingt hep lantc o ul d
    sti
    llme eti tst radi t
    iona lupt lmeO f83. 5%wi thl O% f ewe rmecha ni cs ,g ene rating
    savi ngso f$3 50, 000 /ye a r.Impl e me ntingaf ulls uiteo fpr oa c tivema inte nanc epo li-
    cies, includ ingbe tt
    e rpl a nnl ngS ys tems ,pa rts, reliab i
    litye ng lneer lng,a nds oo n, al-
    lowe dt hepl antt oa c hie vet het rad itiona lu pt lmeWi tho nl y61mecha ni cs,s avl ng
    $1 .
    2mi llion/ye a r.
    Howe ve r,d epl oyl ngt hes ames ui teo fpr oa ctivepol ic ieswi thoutdowns iz lng
    all
    owe dupt imet or isea bove93% a ndge ne rated$9mi llion /yea ri na dd it
    iona l
    prof it･Whyt hedi f
    fe re nc e?Thec os t-mi n imi zati ona p proa chme a nsa nyl mPr O Ve -
    me nti npr oduc tivltyge ne r atedbyt hea do pt ionofi mpr ove dma inte nanc et e ch-
    nlque Sisi mme diate lyha rve ste da she adc o untr educ ti
    o n･Re sour cesf orp l
    a nne d
    ma int ena nc er e mainc o ns traine d･Theo r ga ni za t
    io nc ont inue st of ightf iresa nd
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    ol
    l 73

    TABLE211
    ResuJ
    tsfrom Changein
    Head Pr
    ofi
    t
    se一
    ectedpo一i
    cy
    si
    mufati
    ons Por
    lCyMi
    x Count Upt
    ime (
    Smi ni
    on/year
    )

    Cases1and2: 0･Ty picafplantunderexlr


    Sti
    ngpol i
    ci
    es 91 83.5 0.
    00
    Minimize l l Uses c hedul
    ing t
    om ini
    m i
    z e
    maintenance maintenan cecosts 82 83.5 0.
    35
    2.Mi nimizec ost
    sviafullsui
    teof
    costssubjectto
    pr
    oac tiv
    emai ntenancepol i
    cies 61 83.5 1.
    20
    upti
    me≧i nit
    ial
    upti
    me. 3.Ma xi
    mi zeplantprof
    itvi
    af uHsuit
    eof
    Case3:Maxi miz
    e pr
    o acti
    ve m ai
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    cies 91 93.3 9.
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    pf
    antprofi
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    ect Source･
    '
    Wi nst
    onL e
    det
    ,Ma r
    kPai
    ch,TonyCard
    ell
    a,
    andMarkDo
    wn'
    ln
    g( ,
    1991)"T
    heV
    alu
    eof
    t
    omech anic l
    ntegrat
    j
    ngth eCMLTK e
    yP ur
    sui
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    ,"DuP on
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    rep
    ort
    .
    headcount≦
    i
    nit
    ialheadcoun t
    .

    foc usonr e ac t
    ivema int enanc ebutdoess omo r
    ee ficiently.I nc ontrast,impl e-
    me ntl
    ngt hene wpol icie swi thoutdowns izingf reesupr esour ce sthatc anber e in-
    Ves tedins ti
    llmo repl anne dma inte nanc e.Asbr eakdownsf al
    l, Stil
    lmor eme chani cs
    arer elea sedf romf i
    r ef ight i
    nga ndout agest odoe ve nmo repl anne dwor k. Ma in-
    tena ncee xpe nsesdr op,r e l
    e aslngr esour c est ha tcanbei nve ste dint rainlng, pa r t
    s
    qua lit
    y, relia bilit
    ye ngl ne e r
    lng, Pla nninga nds che dul i
    ngs ystems ,andot hera ctivi
    -

    tiestha tc utde fectsa ndbr eakdownss t i


    llmor e. Hi ghe ruptlmeyi e l
    dsmor ereve nue
    andpr ovi desa ddi ti
    ona lr esour cesf わrs ti
    llmor ei mpr oveme nt. Fore xa mpl e,UPI
    gra dingt oamo redur a blet y peofpumps ea li mpr ovesr eliability,a l
    lowl ngma in-
    tena ncei nte rva lstobel engt he ne da ndi nve nt ori e
    sofr eplaceme nts ealst obec ut .
    Allthepos i
    tivel oops血a tonc ea cteda svi ciousc yclestodr agr el
    iabi l
    itydown
    bec omevi rt
    uousc yc les, progr e ssivelya ndc umul a t
    ive l
    yr educ ingbr eakdownsa nd
    impr ovi nguPt lme . Ther es ulti sat reme ndouss yne rgy,wi t
    ht hec ombi ne de ffe
    c tof
    thei ndi vidua lpo li ciesgr e atlye xc eedingt hes um oft heiri mpa ctswhe ni mpl e-
    me nt edi ndi vid ually.
    Themode lalsor eve aleda ni mpor t
    a ntins ighta boutt het rans it
    ionpa thfollow-
    1ngl mpl e me nta t
    ionoft hene wpol icies. Thes imul a ti
    onr esultsi nTa bl e2- 1s how
    thatpr oa ct
    ivema int ena nc epol ic ieswi thr e inves t
    me ntoft her esult
    sul t
    ima te ly
    lowe rsma int enan c ec os tsa ndboos tsupt lme. Imme diatelya fteri mpl eme ntation,
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    terprett hes hotr -runde terior ationi npe rf
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    ma inte na nc epr obl emc oul di mpr ovet hec ont ribut ionofDuPont 'sma inte na nc e
    pr og ra mt oc orpor a tepr ofitabi lity.Now t he irc ha ll
    e ngewast oi mpl eme ntt he
    ne ed edc ha nges .Thet eam wr ot eawhi tepa pe rd eta ili
    ngt her es ultsoft hemode l-
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    onst hr ougho utt heor ga niz ationTher es ul t?Not hi ng
    ha ppe ne d.Pe opl ewoul ds ay,H Wea l
    r ea dyknow t ha tpl anne dma int e na nc ei sa
    goodi de a,"" Wet riedt hos epol i
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    ac co untf orx, "
    Le detr e alize dt ha tthec li
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    ma na ge me ntt ea mr es pons iblef orma int e na nc e･ Not hi ngc oul dha ppe nwi thoutt he
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    ques tione di t
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    Some howt he yha dt or ecre atet ha tlea rningPr oc es st hroughoutt hepl a nts ,fromt op
    ma na ge me ntt ot hel owes t-gra deme c ha ni cs.
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    pa rticlpa tei nmode lingwor ks hopsore ve nt ogl Vet he mt hemode ls ot he yc oul d
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    Le detwa sf a mi liarwi tht heBe erDi st ri
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    ac ti
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    pa rts(de termine dbyar ol loft hedi c e)a rea vailable･ Ifthepa rtsa rei ns tock,the
    equl pme ntisr e pa iredJfnot ,theme cha nicsmus twa i
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    expe r
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    tionedtheva
    lueofcont
    inuing
    theprogr
    am ofdef
    ectel
    iminat
    iona ndproact
    ivemaintena
    nce.Afewtr
    ansf
    erredto
    otherBPfac
    ili
    ti
    esorlef
    talt
    ogether.Winst
    onLedetdescri
    bedwhatha
    ppenedne xt
    :
    Forthosewhodecidedtostaywi ththes hip,ane ws plrite mer
    ged.Theyr eal
    ized
    ha
    t ttheyneededafutureinLi maa nds houldta ker espons ibi
    li
    tyforcre
    atlngthat
    fut
    ure.Thefi
    rsts
    tepwa stoe nsurethatthee xito fma nye xperi
    enc
    e dpeopledidnot
    t
    h r
    owt hembackinther ea
    ctivemod e.Thishe iht
    g ene dthes enseofurgencytod o
    defe
    cte l
    imi
    nat
    ion.Itact
    uallycr e
    atedac learerf ocusf orthepe opl
    ewhor emained.
    Theywe rea
    llthe
    rebe c
    a us
    et heyha dchos entobet he re･17
    Soont hecumul
    ati
    veimpactofthenew mai
    ntenancepoli
    ciesanda t
    tit
    udeswas
    clear
    lyvis
    ibl
    eintheper
    for
    ma nceofthepl
    ant.Ta
    bl e21
    2hi ghl
    ight
    ss omeofthe
    resul
    ts.
    Thedr ama t
    icimpr ove mentsi ntherefi
    ne r
    ydi dnotgounnot iced.OnJ ul y2,
    1 998,theba me rheadlineoftheLi maNe wsannounced"Oi lRe f
    ineryRes cued."
    Cl arkUSA,apr ivat
    elyhe ldFortune500Compa nywi t
    hrefini
    nga nddi st
    ribution
    interes
    ts,agree
    dt obuyt heLi mar e f
    ine
    ryfrom BPf or$215mi l
    liona ndkeepi top-
    er at
    lngaSar efi
    ne r
    y.Ma nypeopl ea ndorganizationsc ont
    ributedtot herescueof
    ther ef
    inery.Yetwithoutt hedr a
    ma t
    icimproveme ntsinrefi
    ne r
    yope rati
    onss t
    imu-
    latedbyt hesystemsthinki ngIntervent
    ionitisunl ikelyClar
    k,ora nybuye r,Woul d
    ha veofe redenoughf orthef acil
    itytokeepltr unnl ng.

    TABLE2-
    2
    1.LimaRef inerypumpMTBFupf rom 12to58mont hs(pumpf a‖ ur
    es
    I
    mprovementat
    downf rom mor ethan640i n1991t o131j n1998).Dir
    ectsavings:
    t
    heLimarefi
    ner
    y $1.8mi l
    li
    on /
    year.
    2.Totalf
    lare10f
    fofhy dr
    ocarbondownf rom l.
    5% to0.35%.Di r
    ec tsavl
    ngs:
    $0.27/barrel
    .lmprovedenvironmental qual
    it
    y.
    3.On｣ineanaJ yzeruptimeimpr ovementf r
    om 75% andnottrustedt o97%
    andt r
    us t
    ed,permitti
    ngreaHimeopt imizati
    onofproductf
    low.Savi ngs:
    $0.i010.12/barel
    r
    4.Thi
    rt
    y-f
    ourproducti
    onrecordsset.
    5.Saf
    etylnci
    dentsandIosthourscutbyfact
    orof41
    6.Cashmar gi
    nimprovedby$0. 77perbarr
    elofoi
    lpr
    ocessed.
    7.Tot
    alnewva山ecr eated:$43mi l
    l
    ion/
    year
    .Total
    cost
    :$320,000
    /year
    .
    Rati
    o:143:1.
    8.BPwidelear
    nlnglni
    ti
    ati
    veunderwayforal
    lot
    herref
    iner
    iesandplant
    s.
    Over2000peoplefr
    omsi t
    esintheUS,UK,Aust
    rali
    a,Nort
    hSea,Alaska,
    andEuropehadparti
    cIPat
    edin的ewor k
    shopandgameby1 998.

    ce:P
    Sour aulMonus
    ,per
    sonal
    communi
    cati
    on;Monu
    s,P.(1
    997)"Pr
    oact
    lv
    eMa nuf
    act
    ur
    lngatBP'
    s
    Li
    maOi l
    Re f
    i
    ner
    y,"p
    rese
    nte
    datNati
    ona
    lPetr
    oleu
    mRe f
    Ener
    SAssocl
    at
    l0
    nMa ln
    ten
    a n
    CeCo n
    fer
    enc
    e,
    20-2
    3Ma y1997,NewOrl
    eans,
    andGrl
    ff
    l
    th,｣.
    ,D.Kuen
    zll
    ,andPMo nus(19
    98)"Pr
    oact
    】
    veMa nu
    fac
    -
    t
    unng.Accel
    er
    ati
    ngSte
    pChangeBre
    akthr
    oughsl
    nPerf
    ormance
    ,"NPRAMa i
    nten
    a n
    ceConfer
    enc
    e,
    MC-98-
    92.

    1
    7TMGNe
    ws,1
    5Se
    pte
    mbe
    r19
    98･
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 79

    Thes uc cessoft hel e a rnlngl abo ratorya ndma inte na nc ega mei ll
    us t
    ratest he
    re alp urpos eoft hemode li
    ngp r
    o cess .Themo de l,ga me ,a ndwo rks ho pdo n'tte ac h
    a nyo nehowt oma int ainapumpbe tterorhowt odovi br a ti
    o nmo nito nng. DuPo nt,
    BP ,ando the ro rga niz ationsa lread yha vepl entyoft e chni calt oo lsa ndkno wle d ge.
    Ins tead,t hega mea ndl ea rnlngl abo r at
    orye na blepe o plet oe xpe rienc ethel o ng-
    te r
    mo rgani za t
    ionwi dec ons e quenc eso fthe ira ctions ,toe na ctaf utur einwhi chol d
    wa ysofbe ha v
    inga rec ha nge d,a ndt oe xpe rienc ee mo tiona llya swe lla scog nl-
    tive lywha ti tmi g htbel iket oma ket het ransitiont oahi g h- pe rforml ngPl a nt
    ･
    TheLi mae x pe rienc ei llustratest hepo we ro fas hifti nme nt almod els.TheBP
    te amr educ e dbut anef la re -Offt oz ero,g ene ra t
    inga nn ua ls a vingsof$1 .5mi llio n/
    ye ara ndr e duc i
    ngpol lutio na swe l
    l .Thee fo rtt oo k2we e ksa ndc ost$ 50 00,a
    re t
    u rnoni nve s
    tme nto f3 0, 0009 も/
    y ea r.Wha tha ds to ppe dt he mf romi mpl ement lng
    thisi mpr ove mentl o nga go?Me mbe rso ft het e am kne wa bo utt hepr oblema nd
    ho wt os ol vei tfo r8ye a rs .The ya l
    re adyha da l
    lt h ee ngl ne e rlngknow- ho wt he y
    ne ede dt os olvet hepr o ble ma ndmos to ft hee qui pme nta ndma t
    erialswe re
    alre adyo ns i
    te.Theo nlyba rri
    erswe retheme nta lmo de lst hroug hwhi c he mpl o y-
    ee sc a met obe l
    ie vet ha tt he ywe repowe rless,t ha tt hepr obl emwa simpos edby
    ext erna lfor cesbe yondt he irc ont ol
    r ,andt ha taf e wpe opl ec ouldne ve rma kea
    d if
    fe rence .
    Thes ee nt r
    enc he dme nt almode lscha nge di nf oure ssent ialwa ys .Thebe lief
    tha tthepr o bl e
    m wa so utt he reha dt oc ha ngef rom " o ure qui pme n tisl ousya nd
    the re'sno thi ngwec a nd oa bouti t"t o"O ure q uipme ntPe rfom spoo rlya sar e su l
    t
    o fo urownpa s
    tpo li
    c ies-1 fwec ha ng eo urbe ha vi or ,thee q ulpme ntWi llrespo nd. H
    Thef o cuso nd efe ctc o rrec tionthr oug hr epa i
    r sha dt os h ifttoaf ocuso nd efectp -re
    ve ntio na nde li
    mi na tion. Thef ocusonmi nimi zingma int ena nc ec os tsha dtos hift
    toma ximl ZlngOVe rallo rga nizationa lperfo rma nc e. Andt he yha dt or ealizetha te s-
    Ca plngt het rapo fr ea ctivema i
    ntena nc ene ces sarilyi nvo lve dawo rse -before-be tter
    trade of f.
    Thef or ma lmode lwa se ssential, asitle dt ot hei nitia lins ightsi n t
    ot hed yna m-
    icsofpr oc es simpr ove me nta ndthes yne rglStice f fe ctso fhi g hl eve ragepo l
    ic ies.
    Themode la lsoa llowe dt hemode lingt eamt ode ve lopt hega mea ndhe lpedma ke
    itre alisti
    c .Ul tima telyi mpl eme n t
    a ti
    o ns ucc essr e qui redt hemode lingt e amt oe m-
    be dt he i
    rins i
    g ht
    si nt oal e arnlnge nvir onme n ttha ti nvol ve dt hea cti
    vepa rtici
    pa tio n
    oft hepe o pl eo nt hef rontl ines,tha te nable dpe opl et odi scove rthos ei nsightsf or
    the ms e l
    ve s, andt ha ts po ken oto nlyt oth eirh ea dsb u ta lsot ot heirhe arts･

    2.
    5 SuMMARY:PR;NC!PLESFORSl
    jCCESSF
    JuLUSEOF
    SYsTEM DyNAM;
    CS
    Thoughtheproj
    ectsdescri
    beda bovedife
    redinma nywa ys,t
    heyalli
    ll
    ustr
    atea
    numberofpri
    nci
    plesfore f
    fec
    tivedeve
    lopmentandimple
    me ntat
    ionofs
    yste
    md y-
    namicsmodels(S
    eec hapter3;seeals
    oFo r
    rest
    er1961;Ro ber
    ts1977/
    1978;and
    Mo r
    ecrof
    tandSter
    ma n1 994):

    1
    . Deve
    lopamodelt
    os ol
    veapar t
    icul
    arpr obl
    em,nott omode lt
    hes yst
    em.
    Amodelmus
    thaveac l
    earp
    urposeandthatpurposemustbetosolvethe
    pr
    obl
    emofconc
    erntothecl
    ient
    .Mod el
    ersmuste xcl
    udeallf
    acto
    rsn ot
    80 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    r
    ele
    vantt
    othepro
    blemtoe ns
    urethepro
    jec
    tsco
    peisf
    eas
    ibl
    eandt
    heresul
    ts
    t
    imel
    y.Thegoa
    listoimprovetheper
    for
    manceoft
    hesys
    temasde
    fine
    dby
    t
    hecli
    ent
    .Focuso
    nr e
    sult
    s.

    2.Mo deli
    ngshouldbeintegr
    ate dint
    oapr ojee
    Wr omthebeinnmg.
    g
    Thev al
    ueofthemodeli
    ngpr o
    c es
    sbeginsearl
    yon,i
    ntheprobl
    em
    defi
    niti
    onphase.
    Themod el
    ingpr oc
    esshelpsfoc
    usdi
    agnosi
    sonthe
    st
    ruct
    ureofthesyst
    emr a
    therthanblamlngprobl
    emsonthepeopl
    emaki
    ng
    deci
    sionsi
    nthatst
    ruct
    ure.

    3.Bes kepti
    calaboll
    ttheva lueo fmode li
    ngandf orcetheHwhydowe
    needi t
    "discuss
    ionatt hes t
    rto
    a fthepr oj
    ec t.
    Therea r
    ema nyproblemsf orwhichs yst
    emdy namicsisnotuseful･
    Carefu11
    yconsid
    erwhe thersystemd ynami c
    si stherig
    httechni
    q uefort
    he
    pro
    bl em.Mod el
    ersshouldwe lcomed if
    fi
    c ul
    tq uest
    ionsfr
    omt hec l
    ient
    s
    abouthowt heprocessworksa ndhowi tmi ghthe l
    pthemwi ththeir
    pro
    bl em.Theearl
    iertheseissuesarediscussed,thebett
    er.
    4. System dyna ic
    m sdoe snotstanda l
    one.Useo t
    he rtoolsandme thodsas
    appr opria
    te.
    Mos tmod eli
    ngpr oj
    ectsarePartOfalar
    gereffo
    rtinvolvingtr
    adit
    ional
    st
    r a
    teglCando perat
    ionalanal
    ysis
    ,incl
    udingbenchma rking,
    sta
    tist
    ica
    lwo r
    k,
    ma rketres
    earch,etc.
    Ef fe
    cti
    vemode l
    ingrestsonas t
    rongba s
    eo fdat
    aand
    unde r
    standi
    ngo ftheissues,
    Mode li
    ngwo rksbestasac omplementtoothe
    r
    tools,notasas u
    bstit
    ute.
    5.Foell
    SOni mpleme nta t
    ionf rom t hestartoft heproje
    ct.
    Implementat
    ionmus ts t
    arto nthef irs
    tdayoft heproJe
    CLCo nst
    antlya sk,
    Howwi llthemo d
    elhe l
    pt hec lie
    ntma kedecis i
    ons?Usethemode lt oset
    prl
    Ori
    tie
    sa nddete
    rmi nethes eque nceofpoli
    cyl mplementa
    tio
    n･ Us ethe
    modeltoa ns
    we rt
    heque stion,Ho wdowege tt
    he r
    efromhe r
    e?Ca r ef
    ully
    consi
    dertherealwo r
    l dissuesi nvolvedinpullingvari
    ouspoli
    cyl evers.
    Quant
    ifythefullra
    n geo fc ostsa ndbenefi
    tso fpoli
    cie
    s,notonlythos e
    al
    readyreport
    edbye xist
    inga CC Ountl
    ngSyStemS ･
    6.Mo delingwor ksbe stasani te
    rat i
    vepr oce
    ssofjointinquir
    ybe tween
    di e
    ntandC onsultant.
    Mode li
    ngl Saproc essOfdis
    cover y･Thegoalist
    ore ac
    hne wunde rsta
    nding
    ofhowt heproble
    ma ris
    esand血e nusethatunder
    standi
    ngt odesignhigh
    levera
    gepo lici
    esforimpr o
    veme nt ･
    Mode li
    ngshouldnotbeus eda satool
    fcL
    radvoc ac
    y .Don'tbu i
    ldaclie
    nfjspriorOPl
    nionaboutwha tshouldbe
    doneintoamo del.Us eworkshopswhe rethecli
    entscantestt
    hemod el
    themselves,inrealti
    me.
    7.Avoidblackboxmo del
    ing.
    Mode l
    sbu i
    ltouto fthesightofthecli
    entwillneverleadtocha ngein
    deepl
    yhe l
    dme nta
    lmo delsandther
    eforewillnotchangec l
    ientbehavi
    or.
    Invol
    vethec l
    ientsa searl
    ya ndasdeeplyaspos s
    ible
    . Showthe mthemode l
    ･
    Encouragethemt os uggestandrunthei
    ro wnt es
    tsandt ocri
    ti
    cizethe
    mod e
    l.Wわ r
    kwi t
    ht hemt oresol
    vethei
    rc r
    iti
    cismstothe i
    rsat
    isfact
    ion.
    Ch
    apt
    er2 S
    yst
    emDy
    nami
    csi
    nAc
    ti
    on 81

    8.Validationisac ontinuo uspr o


    cessofte s
    tingandbui ldi
    ngc onfidencein
    themode l.
    Mode lsareno tval
    idateda fte
    rtheyareco mpletedno rbya nyon etestsuch
    astheirabil
    itytofithist
    o ric
    aldata
    .Cl i
    ents(andmod el
    e rs
    )bu ildco nfi
    dence
    intheut i
    li
    tyofamo delg radual
    ly,byconstantl
    yc onfronti
    ngt hemo d
    elwith
    dat
    aa nde xpertopinion-t heirowna ndo t
    he r
    s'.Throught hi
    spr ocessboth
    mo delande xpertopini
    o nswi l
    lchangea ndde epen.Seeko uto pportuniti
    es
    tochallengethemo de l
    'sa bil
    it
    ytorepli
    ca t
    eadi vers
    er angeo fhi st
    or i
    cal
    eXl
    j
    ⊥erlenCeS.

    9.Ge tapr el
    imi narymode lwor kinga ssoonaspos si
    ble｡Addde tilo
    a nly
    aSne e
    e SSa
    r y･
    De vel
    o pawo rkingsimulationmod elassoona spos s
    ible.
    Don' tt
    ryt o
    developac ompr ehensi
    vec once ptua
    lmode lp rl
    O rt
    Othede velo
    pme nto fa
    si
    mul ati
    onmode l,Conceptualmod el
    sareo nlyhypo t
    hesesandmus tbe
    te
    sted.Fo r
    ma liza
    tionands i
    mul a t
    ionoftenu ncoverf
    lawsi nconceptual
    ma psandl eadtoimpr ovedunde r
    sta
    nd i
    ng･Ther es
    ult
    sofs i
    mul at
    ion
    experi
    me ntsinformc onceptualunde rs
    tandingandhe lpbuildconfidencein
    t
    her esult
    s.Ea rl
    yresult
    spr ovi
    dei mme di
    ateva l
    uet ocli
    entsandjustif
    y
    conti
    nue dinvestmentofthe i
    rtime.

    1
    0.Abr oadmode lbo undaryl Smor eimpo rtantthanagr eatdelo
    a fdetil
    a .
    Mo delsmus ts
    trikeaba la
    nc ebetweenaus eful,operat
    ionalrepre
    sent
    ation
    ofthes t
    ruc
    turesa ndpo l
    icyleversavai
    labletothec l
    ientswhilecapt
    ur l
    ng
    thefeedbacksge neral
    lyunaccountedforinthe i
    rme ntalmode ls
    .Ingeneral
    ,
    thedynamic sofas ysteme mergefromthei ntera
    c t
    ionsofthec omponents
    int
    hes yste
    m-C aptur
    ingthosefeedbacksismo r
    eimpo r
    tantt
    hanal otof
    detai
    linrepres
    e ntingthecompo nentst
    he mse l
    ves.
    l
    l.Us eexpe rtmo de l
    e rs,notnovi c
    es.
    Whi lethes oft
    wa rea vail
    ableformo del
    ingl Se asilyma st
    eredbyahi gh
    schools tu
    d entorCEO, mo del
    inglSnotC Omput erprOgramml ng.Yo ucannot
    developaq ua
    litati
    v ediagrama ndt henha ndi tof ftoapr ogr
    a mme rfor
    codingI nt
    oaS i
    mul ationmo de
    l.Mode l
    ingr equi r
    e sad i
    scipl
    ine dapproach
    anda nun derstandingo fbus i
    ness,skil
    lsde velo pedth r
    oug hstudya nd
    expeie
    r nc e. Getthee xpe r
    ta s
    sis
    tanceyo une e d. Usethepr oj
    e ctaSan
    oppo r
    tunltytOde ve l
    o pthes k
    ill
    so fo t
    herso nt het eama ndint heclient
    organizati
    on,
    1
    2｡Impl ementati
    ondoe snote ndwithas i
    nglepr oj
    ec t.
    Ina
    l1t hr
    eec ase
    st hemode lingwo r
    kc onti
    nuedt ohavei mpactlo
    nga ft
    er
    theinit
    ial
    pr o
    jectWa so ve
    r. Modelsandma nageme ntflights
    imulato
    rswere
    appliedt
    os i
    mi l
    a ris
    suesino therset
    tl
    ngS.Themode lersdevel
    opedexpert
    is
    e
    theyappli
    edt ore l
    ate
    dpr oblemsandc l
    ientsmo vedi ntonewposit
    ionsand
    newo rgani
    zations,taki
    ngt heinsi
    ghtstheygaineda nd,so me
    times,anew
    wa yofthi
    nking, withthem. Ⅰmplementat
    ionisal ong-ter
    mpr ocessof
    personal
    ,organizati
    onal,ands oci
    alchange.
    甘言
    はき呈
    t,
    畠曽呈
    主嘩 苧i
    t串
    ∈e軍
    §

    Pe rh
    a psth
    ef aultl
    fort hepoori mplementati
    onre c
    ofl
    dformode l
    s]liesinthe
    originsofmana ger
    ialmode l
    -ma ki
    ng-thet ransl
    ati
    ono fme thodsa ndpr i
    n-
    Ciplesoft heph ysi
    c als c
    iencesi ntowar t
    imeo perati
    on sresearc
    h. .I f
    hypot he
    sis
    ,d at
    a ,anda nalysisleadtoproofandne wk nowledgeins cie
    nc e
    ,
    shouldn'tsimil
    arpr ocessesleadt ochangei norganiz
    at i
    ons?Thea nsweris
    ob vi
    ou s
    INO!Or ganizationalc hanges(orde cisi
    onsorpol ici
    es)donot
    insta
    nt l
    yjl
    o wfrome vidence,dedu ct
    ivel
    ogic,andmat h
    emat i
    caloptimizat
    ion.
    IEdwa rdB.Ro be
    rts
    l

    lnc hapt er1t hec onc eptofavi r


    tualwor ldwa sintr oduc edasawa yt os peedt he
    learnlngpr ocess,a ndc hapt
    er2s howe dhowmode lsbe c
    a mevi rt
    ualwor l
    dst ohe lp
    solvepr o
    bl e msi nt hreediffer
    e ntsituat
    ions .How c a nvi rt
    ualwor lds( mode ls)be
    usedmos te fe ct
    ive ly?Howc anus e
    fulvirtualwor ldsbec reated?Mode lingta kes
    placei nt hec ontextofr ealwor l
    dpr oblems olving,wi tha l
    li t
    sme ssi
    nes s,ambi -
    guity,timepr ess
    ur e,polit
    ics,andi nter
    pe rs
    ona lc onflic t
    . Thepur posei stos olvea
    proble m,notonl yt oga ininsight( t
    houghi ns ighti ntot hepr oblemi sr equiredt o
    designe f
    fe ct_
    ivepol ici
    e s
    ),Mode l
    ing,asapa rtoft hel e arni
    ngpr ocess,i sitera
    tive,
    acont inua lpr ocessoff ormulatinghypot hese s
    ,te s
    tlng, andr evisi
    on, ofbo thforma l
    andme nt
    a lmod els.Expe ri
    me ntsc onduc t
    edi nt hevi rtualwo rldinformt hede sign
    ande xe cut iono fe xperimentsi nther ealwor ld;e xpe rienceint herea lwor ldthe n
    leadst ocha ngesa ndi mprove me ntsinthevi rt
    ua lwor l
    da ndinpa rt
    icl
    pa ntS '
    me nt a
    l

    1
    Ro b
    ert
    s,E.(
    1977,
    )"S
    tra
    teg
    iesf
    oreff
    ecti
    veimpl
    ement
    at
    iono
    fcompl
    exco
    rpor
    at
    emo d
    els
    ,"
    I
    nt
    erfa
    ces7(
    5);a
    lsoch
    apt
    er4inRober
    ts(1978)Th
    . epa
    perr
    emai
    nsasu
    cci
    ncta
    ndst
    il
    lrel
    eva
    nt
    s
    ta
    tementof
    theneedf
    orani
    mp l
    ement
    ati
    onf oc
    us丘.
    omtheve
    rys
    tar
    tof
    anymodel
    ngp
    i roj
    ect
    .

    8
    3
    84 P
    artI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    models
    .Thischapt
    erdis
    c uss
    e st
    hepur
    poseofmodel
    ing,
    des
    cri
    best
    heproc
    es so
    f
    s
    yste
    md yna
    mi c
    smode l
    ing,therol
    eofthec
    lie
    nt,a
    ndthemodel
    er'
    Spr
    ofes
    sional
    andet
    hicalr
    espons
    ibi
    li
    ti
    e s･

    3.
    1 THEPuRPOSEOFMoDELI
    NG:
    M ANAGERSASORGANI
    ZAT1
    0N DESI
    GNERS
    Ja yFo rres tero f
    te na sks ,Whoa r ethemos timpo r t
    a ntpeo pleint hes a f
    eo per at
    ion
    o fana ircr aft?Mos tpe o pler espo nd, Thepi l
    o ts .Inf act,t
    hemos timpo r
    tantpe opl e
    aret hede sign ers.Ski lle d, wel
    l -traine dpi lotsa rec rit
    ical,butf armo r
    ei mpo rtanti s
    d esignl nga na ircraf ttha ti ss tabl e,r obus tunde re xtremec onditio ns ,andt hator di-
    na rypi lot sc anflys a felye ve nwhe ns tressed, tired, orinun fa
    mi li
    a rc onditi
    ons . In
    thec ont ex tofs o ciala ndbus i
    ne s ss ys t
    ems ,ma nag erspl aybo thr o les.The ya rep1 -
    lots,ma kingd ec isions( whot ohi re,wha tpr i cest os et,whe nt ol aunc ht hene w
    pr oduc t)a ndt he ya r ede signe rs ,s ha pingt heo rga nizationalstruc tu res,Strat
    e gies,
    andd ec is
    i onr ule st ha tinflue nc ehowde cisionsa rema de .Thede signr olei sthe
    mos timpo rtantbut us ua llyg etst hel e astattentio n.T わoma nyma na ger s
    ,espe cially
    seni orma nage rs, spe ndf art oomuc ht imea ctinga SPi l
    ots-ma kin gd e c
    isions, t
    a k1
    1ngc o ntro lf roms u bor dina tes-r athe rtha nc reatlnga nO rgani za t
    iona ls t
    ruc t
    ur e
    co nsiste nt witht he irv isio na ndva lue sa ndwhi c hc anbema nage dwe llbyo rdinar y
    pe ople( seeFo rre s
    te r1 965) .
    Tbda yd e si
    g nlngane wa ircr a氏i simpos siblewi thoutmo delinga nds imul ati
    o n･
    Ma na ge rss eekingt oe nha nc et he iro rga nizatio nald e s
    igns 女ill
    s, ho we ve r,continue
    tode sig nbyt ri
    a la nde rror,bya ne cdo te,andbyi mi tat
    io no fot he rs,thoug ht he
    co mpl e xltyOft he iro rga ni za t
    io nsr i
    va lstha tofa na ir
    cra氏･ Ⅵr tua lwo r
    ldspr ovide
    ani mpo rtantt oo lfo rma na ger si nbot ht heo pe rati
    o na nde spe ciallyt hede signo f
    the i
    ro rgani zations ｡
    The rei sc l
    ea rlyar olef o rmode lstha the lpma nagerspi lotthe iro rganizations
    be tt
    e r,a nds ys temd yna mi csi so ftenus efulf ort he sepur pos es.Butt her ealvalue
    oft hepr oc essc o me swhe nmode lsa r eus edt os u ppo rtorga ni
    z ationa lrede si
    g nJn
    Indus tr i
    al Dynami c s,Fo rre sterc a llsf orc oura gei nt hes electi
    o no fpr oblems ,sayl
    lng,H Thes ol
    ut i
    o nst os ma llpr o ble msyi elds ma llre wards-･ Thegoa lsho uldbe
    to丘ndma na ge me n tpo li
    c iesa ndo rga nizationa ls tr
    uc turesthatl ea dtog reat
    e rsuc -
    ce ss,"Foc usyo u rmo de li
    ngwo rko nt hei mpo rt
    a nti ss
    ue s,Ont hepr obl emswhe re
    yo urwo rkc a nha vel a sti
    ngbe ne fit,O nt hepr o ble msyo uc aremos tde eplya bo ut･

    3.
    2 THECuENT.
    ANDTHER
    IloDELEF
    篭
    Mode i
    ingdo esnottakepl a
    C eillSPierl
    didi so
    lation.I
    ti sembedde dil
    la nO rgani-
    zat
    iona ndsoc i
    alcontext.Eve nbe fわret hemode l
    ingpr oc
    esspe rsebe gins,血e
    mode l
    ermus tgalnaccesstOt heo r
    ga ni
    za ti
    ona ndidentifyt
    hec l
    ient.
    Thec li
    e ntis
    notthepersonwhobr ingsyo uint oa no rgani
    z at
    ionorc hamplOnSyou rWo rk, nor
    eventhepe rsonwhopa ysf orthemode li
    ngs tudy,thoughitishe l
    pf ultoha ve
    cont
    a c
    ts,champions,andc ash.Yourc l
    ientsarethepe opleyoumus tinf
    luenc ef or
    yourwo rktohaveimpa ct･The ya r
    et hosepe oplewhos ebehaviormus tchanget o
    sol
    vethepr oble
    m. Yourc l
    ientc anbeaCEOo rama chineoper
    atoront hefa ctory
    fl
    oor.Client
    sc anbeind i
    vidua l
    s,groups ,o rentir
    ec ommuni t
    ies･Thec li
    entf ora
    Ch
    apt
    er3 Th
    eMo
    del
    i
    ngP
    roc
    ess 85

    mode lings tudyc anbeyo ura c a


    de mi cc ol l
    e ague s,thepubl ica tla rge, o re ve nyou r -

    se lf･Int hedi sc us siont ha tfol lows ,Iwi llfoc usonmode l


    ingpr oje ctsc onduc te
    df or
    or ga niz ations .Thepr oc e ss,howe ve r,iss i
    mi la rf ort hes eothe rc ont ext sa swe ll.
    Tobee fe ctivet hemode li
    ngpr oc es smus tbef oc us edont hec lie nts'ne e ds .
    Thec lient sf oramode lingpr o j
    e cta rebus y. The ya ree mbr oiledi no rga niz at
    ional
    pol itics .The ya rel ooki ngoutf ort he irownc a ree rs.The irc onc erni ss ol vinga
    pr obl ema ndt aki nga ctioni nt her e alwor l
    d.The yc a relittl
    ef ort hee lega nceof
    yourt he oryorc le ve rnes sofyourmode l･Mode lingi sdonet ohe lpt hec li
    e nt,not
    fort hebe ne f i
    to fthemode le r.Thec l
    ie ntc ont exta ndr e alwo rldpr obl emde te r
    mi ne
    thena tur eoft hemode l,a ndt hemode lingpr oc es smus tbec ons iste ntwi tht he
    cl i
    e nts 'sk ills,c a pa bilitie s,a ndgoa ls.Thepur pos ei st ohe lpt hec lient ss olvet he i
    r
    pr obl em. Ift hec li
    e nt spe rceiveyo urmode ldoe snota ddr essthe irc onc ernsorl os e
    c onf ide nc ei ni t,yo uwi l
    lha vel ittl
    ei mpa c t
    .Foc usyourmode lingwor kont he
    pr obl emst ha tke ept hec lient su pa tni ght .
    Thepol itica lc ont e xtofmode linga ndt hene e dt of oc uso nt hec lient s'pr oble m
    doe snotmea nmode l erss houl dbehi r edguns ,wi llingt odowha t eve rt hec l
    ie nts
    wa nt･Mode ler ss ho uldnota utoma tic allya cc edet oc l
    ients 're ques tst oi nc lude
    mor ede ta ilort of oc usonones etofi s sue swhi lel gnOr l
    ngOt her s,Jus tt Oke ept he
    client sonboa rd･ Agoodmod eli
    ngpr oc essc ha lle nge st hec l
    ients 'c onc e ptlOnOft he
    pr obl em.Mode l
    e rsha vear espons ibilityt or e qul ret he i
    rc lient st oJ us t
    ifyt he i
    r
    opl ni ons ,gr oundt he irvi ewsi nda ta,a ndc ons i
    de rne w vi ewpol nt S.Whe nt he
    client sa skyout odos ome t
    hi ngyout hi nki sunne ce ssa ryorml Sgui de d,yo umus t
    wor kwi tht he mt or es olvet hei ss ue.
    Unf or tuna tely,f a rt ooma nyc lientsa renoti nte res tedi nl e
    a rni ngbuti nus lng
    mode lst os uppor tc onc lus i
    onst he y'Vea lre adyr e ac he dora si ns trume nt st oga ln
    powe ri nt he iro rga ni za t
    ions .Sa dl y,f a rtooma nyc ons ultantsa ndmode lersa re
    onl yt ooea ge rtoo blige. Asamode leryo uha vea ne thi calre s
    pons i
    bi lityt oca r ry
    outyourwor kwi thr igo ra ndi nt e grlty.Youmus tbewi lli
    ngt ol e tt hemode ling
    pr oc essc ha ngeyourmi nd･ Yo umus tH spe akt rut ht opowe r,
    Ht ellingt hec li
    e ntstha t
    the i
    rmos tc he rishe dbe liefsa rewr ong,i ft ha tiswha tthemode l
    ingpr oc essr eve al s
    ,
    eve ni fi tme a nsyo uwi llbef ir
    e d.I fyourc lient spus hyo utoge ne r atear es ult
    the y'ves e le ctedi na dva nc eort ha tisnots uppo rtedbyt hea nalys i s,pus hba ck.I f
    yourc lient s 'mi ndsa rec lose d,i fyouca n' tc onvi nc et he mt ous emod elinghon-
    es tl
    y ,y oumus t q uit･ Ge t you rs el
    fab ette rc l
    ie nt･2

    3,
    3 STEPSOFTHEM oDEuNG PROCESS
    Inpract
    ice,asamode l
    eryoua refirstbroughtintoanor gani
    zati
    onbyac ont
    a c
    t
    whot hi
    nksyouo ryourmode l
    ingtoolsmi ghtbehe l
    pful.Yourfi
    rsts+
    L
    ePi StOfind
    outwhattherealpro
    blemi sandwhot herealcli
    entis.Yourini
    ti
    alconta
    c tma ynot
    betheclient
    ,butonlyservea saga te
    ke e
    pe rwhoca ni nt
    roduceyoutot hec l
    ient.
    Ast hemode li
    ngpr oj
    ectPr ocee
    ds ,youma yf i
    ndt hec li
    entgroupe xpandsor
    changes.
    As s
    umet hatyou'vesuccessful
    lyne got
    iat
    ede ntr
    ytotheorganizati
    ona nd

    2wal
    la
    ce(1994)p
    rov
    ide
    sag
    oodc
    oll
    ec
    ti
    ono
    far
    ti
    cl
    esa
    ddr
    ess
    ingt
    hee
    thi
    cal
    iss
    ues
    fac
    ing
    mo
    del
    er
    s.
    86 Pa
    rtI Pe
    rspe
    cti
    vea
    ndPr
    oce
    ss

    TABLE31
    l
    1.Pr
    oblem Articulati
    on( BoundarySelecti
    on)
    St
    epsoHhe
    oThemese] ect i
    on:Whati stheprobl
    em?Whyi sitaprobl
    em?
    model
    i
    ngpr
    ocess
    oKeyvar i
    ables:Whatar ethekeyvari
    abl
    esandconceptswemus t
    consi
    der?
    ｡Timehor i
    zon:Howf arinthefut
    ureshouldweconsider
    ?Howf arbackin
    thepastli
    et herootsoftheprobl
    em?
    oDynami cpr oblem defi
    niti
    on(refer
    encemodes) :Whatisthehis
    tor
    ical
    behavj
    oroft hekeyconcept sandvari
    ab-
    es?Whatmi ghtthei
    rbehavi
    or
    bejnthefuture?
    2.For
    mulati
    onofDynami cHypot
    hesi
    s
    ｡hiti
    alhypothesi
    sgener
    ati
    on:Whatar
    ecur
    ren
    Hheor
    iesoft
    hepr
    obl
    em-
    ati
    cbehavi
    or?
    .Endogenousfocus:For
    mulateadynami chypothesi
    sthatexplai
    nsthe
    dynami
    csasendogenousconsequencesoft hefeedbacks t
    ructur
    e.
    oMappng:Developmapsofcausalstructurebasedoni ni
    ti
    alhypotheses,
    keyvar
    iabl
    es,r
    efer
    encemodes,andot heravail
    abledata,uslngtool
    s
    suchas
    oModelboundar ydiagrams,
    oSubsyst
    em diagrams,
    .CausaHoopdi agrams,
    oStockandfl
    owmaps,
    ｡Poli
    cystr
    uctur
    edi agrams,
    ･Otherf
    acil
    it
    ati
    ont ools.
    3.For
    mul
    ati
    onofaSi
    mul
    ati
    onModel
    oSpeeif
    ieati
    onofstr
    uct
    ure,deci
    sJ
    rOnr ul
    es.
    ｡Esti
    mai i
    onofparameter
    s,behavioralr
    elat
    ionshi
    ps,andi
    ni
    ti
    alcondi
    ti
    ons .

    ｡Test
    sforconsi
    stencywit
    hthepur poseandboundar y.
    4･Testing
    oCompar isont oreferencemodes:Doest hemodelrepr
    oducetheprob-
    1
    em behavi oradequatel
    yforyourpurpose?
    ｡Robust nessunderext r
    emeeondi t
    jons:Doesthemodelbehavereal
    is-
    t
    icaHywhens tr
    essedbyex t
    remeconditi
    ons?
    ｡Sensi ti
    vity:Howdoest hemodelbehavegFVenuncer
    tai
    ntyJ
    nParame-
    t
    ers,ini
    t
    ia一 condi
    tons,modelboundar
    i y,andaggr
    egati
    on?
    . Manyot
    日 . hertests(Seechapt
    er21) .
    5.Po一icyDesi gnandEval uati
    on
    oScenar iospecificati
    on:Whatenvi ronment a一condi
    ti
    onsmightarise?
    oPol icydesi gn:Whatnewdeci sionru一es,S t
    rategl
    eS,andst
    ructuresmi ght
    bet r
    iedinthereal world?Howcant heyber epresent
    edinthemodel ?
    . "Whatj f" }'anar ysi
    s: Whataretheef fectsofthepoli
    ci
    es?
    oSensi ti
    vit
    yanal ysis:How robustaret hepol l
    Cyrecommendat i
    onsunder
    di
    fferentscenari
    osandgi venuncert
    ainties?
    oht er acti
    onsofp0日 i
    cies:Dot hepoli
    ciesi nter
    ac t
    ?Arether
    es ynergleSOr
    compensat oryresponses?
    Ch
    apt
    er3 Th
    eMo
    del
    i
    ngP
    roc
    ess 87

    identi
    fiedt he( i
    nitial)clients.Howdoyo upr ocee dtode ve l
    opamode lwhi chc an
    behe lpf
    ult ot hem? 3
    The reisnoc ookbookr eci
    pef orsucces sfulmode ling,nopr oc edureyouc an
    foll
    ow t ogua r a
    nt eeaus efulmode l
    .Mode l
    ingl Sinherent l
    yc rea ti
    veJndi vidua l
    mode lersha vedi fferentstylesa nda pproache s.Ye tal
    lsuc c e
    s s
    fulmode ler
    sf oll
    ow
    adi scipl
    ine dp roc esstha tinvol vesthef ollowi nga ct
    ivities:(1 )a rt
    iculat
    ingt he
    problemt obea ddr essed,(2)for mul at
    ingad ynami chypot hesisort heoryaboutt he
    causesoft hepr o blem,( 3)formul at
    ingas imul ationmode ltotestt hedyna michy-
    pothesis,(4)te s
    tingt hemode lunt i
    lyoua res atis
    fieditiss uit
    ablef oryo urpurpos e,
    and( 5)de signinga nde va l
    uatingpol ici
    esf ori mpr oveme nt
    .Ta ble3 -1list
    st hese
    ste
    psa longwi ths omeoft heques ti
    onse a
    c hs tepa ddressesa ndthepr l
    nClpaltool s
    usedine ach(s e
    ea l
    s oRa n°ers1 980) .

    3.
    4 M oDELI
    NG I
    sITERATI
    VE
    Be for
    edi scussl
    nge achoft heses tepsinmor ede ta
    il,i
    tisi mpor tanttoplacet he
    mode li
    ngpr ocessincontextwi tht heongol ngac t
    ivit
    iesofthepe opleinthes ystem.
    Mode linglSaf eedbackpr ocess, notal inearseque nceofsteps ･
    Mode lsgothrough
    cons t
    antiterati
    on,continualque s ti
    onlng,t es
    ting,andr efi
    ne me nt.Figure3 11r e-
    Ca s
    tsthemode li
    ngpr oces sshowni nTa ble3 -1mor ea ccuratelya sani t
    e r
    ative
    cycle･Thei niia
    t lpurposedi ctatest hebounda rya nds copeoft hemode li
    nge for t,
    butwha ti
    slea r
    nedf r
    om thepr oc essofmode li
    ngma yf eedba cktoa lt
    erourba sic
    unde r
    standingoft hepr oblema ndt hepur poseofoure f
    fort.Iterati
    onc anoc cur
    from anys teptoa nyothers tep( indicatedbyt hei nte
    rconne ct
    ionsi nthec e
    nte rof
    thediagr a
    m) ･Ina nymode l
    ingpr qjectonewi lliterat
    ethrought hesestepsma ny
    times.4

    GURE3
    FI - 1

    Themode‖ ng
    processi
    s
    i
    tera
    t i
    ve.
    Resul t
    sofan y
    stepc anyi el
    d
    insight
    st hatl
    ead
    tor evi
    sionsin
    an yea仙ers t
    ep
    (indica
    tedbyt he
    li
    nk sinthecen t
    er
    ofthedi agram)･

    3
    Thereisahug
    eli
    te
    rat
    ureonme ho
    t dsforp
    lan
    nedor
    gni
    a z
    ati
    ona
    lch
    an g
    eandgr
    ouplnte
    rVen-
    t
    io
    ns･S
    eep ar
    ti
    cul
    ar
    lyArg
    yrisandS c
    h6n(1996),
    Beck
    hrda
    a ndHar
    ri
    s(1987)
    ,Dy
    er(1995)
    ,
    Mic
    hae
    l( 1
    997),
    andSch
    ein(1987,1988).
    4
    Homer(1996)pr
    ovi
    desanex
    cel
    len
    tdi
    sc
    ussi
    o.
    noft
    hev
    alueo
    fit
    er
    at
    iona
    ndrigo
    rins
    yst
    em
    d
    ynami
    cs,
    not onl
    ylnac
    ademicr
    ese
    arc
    hbuta
    ls
    olnCOn
    Sul
    t
    ingwok
    r,wi
    thavari
    et
    yofex
    ampl
    es･
    88 Pa
    rtI P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    Mos timpo rt
    ant l
    y,mode lingl Se mbe dde di nt hel argerc yc leofl ear nlnga nda c-
    tionc ons tantl
    yt akingpl acei nor ga nizat
    i ons( anddes cribe dinc hapt er1 )･Pilots
    ste pIntoa na i
    rcraftf
    lig
    hts imul atora ndle arnmor eq ui ckly, effectively, ands afely
    howt oo pe rat
    ether e a
    la i
    r craft
    ,t he nputt he ses ki l
    lstous ei nt her ealt hing. The y
    fe edba ckwha tthe ylearnf lyingt her ealt hi ngt othes imul atordes igne rss othe
    simul atorsc anbec ontinua ll
    yl mpr OVe d.Wha tpi lotsa nddes igne rsl earni nthe
    simul atorisus edint herea lwor ld. Andwha tthe yl earni nt her ealwor ldisus edt o
    cha ngea ndi mpr ovet hevi rtualwor l doft hes imul a t
    or ･Soi tiswi thma na geme nt
    li
    f ghts i
    mul a
    torsa nds ystem dyna mi c
    smode ls.Fi gur e3- 2S howst hemode l
    ing
    pr ocesse mbe ddedi nthes l
    ngl e-a nddoubl e -
    loopl ea i ngf
    m eedba cksdi scussedi n
    cha pterI .Simula ti
    onmode lsar einf orme dbyourme nt almode l
    sa ndbyi nforma -
    tiongl eane dfrom ther ealwor ld.St ra t
    egie s,Struc tures ,andde c is
    ionr ulesus edi n
    ther ealwor l
    dc anber epres enteda ndt este dint hevi rtua lwor l
    doft hemode l.The
    expe rime ntsandt estsconduc t
    edi nt hemode lfe edba c kt oa lterourme ntalmode ls
    andl e adt othedes ignofne ws tra tegleS,ne wS tructures ,a ndne wde c i
    s i
    onr ules･
    Thes ene wpol iciesa r
    et he ni mpl e me ntedi nt her e alwor ld,a ndf eedba cka bout
    the i
    re fec t
    sleadst one wi nsight sa ndf urthe rimpr ove me nt sinbot ho urf or
    ma land

    FIGURE3 -2
    Mode一 i
    nglS
    embeddedi n
    thedynami cs
    ofthes ys
    tem.
    Effectivemode= ng
    invo一vesc onstant
    i
    terationb etween
    exper imentsan d
    l
    ear n-ngJnt he
    vir
    tual worldand
    exper iments
    andl eaml ngln
    ther ealwor l
    d.
    Ch
    apt
    er3 Th
    eMo
    del
    i
    ngP
    roc
    ess 89

    me nt
    almodels.Model
    inglSnotaOne-
    Shota
    cti
    vit
    ythatyie
    ldsTheAnswe
    r,butan
    ongolngproces
    sOfconti
    nualcycl
    ingbet
    weenthevir
    tualworl
    dofthemodeland
    therealworl
    dofacti
    on.

    3.
    5 0vERV日
    EW OFTHEMoDELE
    NG PROCESS

    3.
    5.1 Probl
    em Art
    icul
    ati
    on:
    The!mPOi
    ､t
    anceofPurpose
    Themos timpo r t
    a nts te pl nmode lingl Spr obl ema rticulation･ Wha ti st heis suet he
    c l
    ientsa remos t conc erne dwi th?Wha tpr oble ma ret heyt ryl ngt Oa ddr es s
    ?Wha tis
    ther e alpr obl em,notj us tt hes ympt om ofdi fficulty?Wha ti st hepur pos eoft he
    mode l ?
    Ac le arpu rpos ei st hes ingl emos timpo rtantI ng redi entf oras uc ces sf
    ulmod-
    e l
    ings tudy.Ofc our s
    e,amode lwi thac l
    e arpur pos ec ans tillbemi s leading,un-
    wi eldy,a nddi fi c ultt ounde rsta nd.Butac lea rpur pos ea l
    lowsyourc lientst oa sk
    q uestionst ha tre ve a lwhe the ramode lisus e f
    uli na ddre ssingt hepr oble mt he yc are
    about .
    Be wa ret hea na lys twhopr opos e stomode la ne ntirebus ines so rs oc i
    als ys t
    em
    ra t
    he rt ha napr o bl em.Eve rymode lisar epr esent ati
    onofas ys t
    em- agr oupof
    func tiona l
    lyi nt erre latede leme nt sf ormi ngaC OmPl exwhol e. Butf o ramode lt obe
    us eful, itmus ta ddr e s
    sas pe cif
    icpr obl ema ndmus tsimpl ifyr athe rtha na t
    temptt o
    mir rora ne nt ires ys temi nde t
    a i
    l .
    Wha tist hedi ff erenc e?Amode ldes igne dt ounde rstandhowt hebus i
    ne ssc y-
    Clec anbes tabi li
    z e di samode lofapr oble m･ Itde alswi t
    has pe ci
    f i
    cpol icyi ssue.
    Amode lde s i
    g ne dt oe xpl orepol iciest os l
    owf os si
    lf ue lus ea ndmi tlga t
    egl obal
    wa r
    ml n gl Sa l
    s oamode lofapr obl e m;i ttooa dd re ssesonl yal imi teds etofi ssues .
    Amode ltha tc laimst obear epr ese nta t
    ionoft hee ntiree c ono myl Samode lofa
    whol es ys tem. Whydoesi tma tte r?Theus ef ulne ssofmode lsl iesi nt hef ac tthat
    the ys impl ifyr e ality,C reat l
    ngar epr es e
    nt ationofi twec anc ompr ehe nd. At ruly
    compr e he ns i
    vemode lwoul dbej us ta sc ompl exa sthes yste mi tselfa ndj us ta sin-
    Scruta ble. YonCl aus e
    wi tzf amous lyc autione dt ha tthema pl Sno tthet e rr
    itory. It'
    s
    agoodt hingi tisn' t: Ama pa sde taileda sthet erritorywoul dbeofnous e( aswe l
    l
    asbe i
    ngha r dt of o ld).
    Thea rtofmode lbui ldingi sknowi ngwha ttoc utout ,a ndt hepur pos eoft he
    mode la ctsa sthel ogi calkni fe.I tpr ovi de sthec riteriat ode cidewha tcanbei g-
    no reds ot ha ton lyt hees se ntilf
    a e ature sne c essa ryt ofulf i
    llt hepur pos ea rel eft.In
    thee xa mpl ea bo ve ,s i
    nc et hepur pos eoft hec ompr ehe nsivemode lwoul dbet or ep-
    resentt hee ntiree conomi cs yste m,not hingc oul dbee xclude d. Tba ns we ra llc on一
    cc i
    va bl eques tionsa boutt hee c onomy ,t hemode lwoul dha vet oi ncludea n
    ove rwhe lml nga rr ayOfva riables . Be ca usei tss copea ndbo unda rya res obr oa d, the
    mode lc oul dne ve rbec ompl eted. Ifi twe r
    e ,theda tar equi re dt ous eitc ouldne ver
    bec ompi led.I ft he ywe re,t hemode l'sunde rlyinga ssumpt lOnSC Oul dne ve rbe
    exa mi ne dort es tedJft he ywe r e,t hemode lbui lde rsc oul dne verunde rstandi t
    s
    be havi ora ndt hec lients 'c onfide nc ei ni two uldde pe ndont hea ut hor i
    tyoft he
    mode lera ndo the rnons cie ntifi
    cgr ounds .Mi hailoMe sarovi c ,ad eve lope rofe arly
    90 P
    art
    I Pe
    rsp
    ect
    i
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    globa ls imul ations ,capt uredt hei mpos s


    ibi li
    tyofbui l dingmode lsofs ys te
    mswhe n
    hes aid,H Noma tterhow ma nyr es ourc esoneha s,oneca ne nvisionac ompl ex
    enoughmode ltor enderr e s
    our cesins ufficienttot het ask."( Mea dows ,Ri cha rdson,
    andBr uc kma nn1 982, p.1 97) .
    Amode ldes igne df orapa rti
    cul arpur pos es uc ha sunde rstandingt hebus iness
    cyc leorgl oba lcl i
    ma tec ha ngewoul dbemuc hs ma ller,sinc ei twoul dbel imi tedt o
    thos ef ac torsbe l
    ieve dt ober elevantt otheque s
    tiona tha nd. Fore xampl e ,thebus i
    -
    nes sc yc lemodelne ednoti ncludel ong- ten t rendsi npo pul ationgr owt h, reso urce
    depl etion, orc lima tec ha nge. Thegl obalwa rml ngmode lc oul de xcludes ho rトーerm
    dyna mi c sr elatedt oi nte restrates ,empl oyme nt,a ndi nve ntor i
    es.Ther esulti
    ng
    mode lsc oul dbes i
    mpl ee noughs ot hatt heira ssumpt lOnSC Oul dbee xa mi ned. The
    relationoft hes ea ssumpt lOnSt Othemos timpor ta ntt he ori
    esr ega rdingt hebus iness
    cyc lea ndc lima tec ha ngec ouldt henbea ssessedt ode t
    e r
    mi nehowus ef ulthemod-
    elswe ref ort he irint e
    nde dpur pos es.Ofc our see venmode lswi thwe ll-de f
    ine dp
    u r -

    pos esca nbet ool arge.Butwi t


    houtac lea rpur pos e,t herei snoba sist os ay" we
    don' tne edt oi nc ludet ha t"whe name mbe roft hec lientte am ma kesas ugges t
    ion.
    Ins um: Al wa ysmode lapr o blem. Ne ve rmode las ys tem･
    Us ua llyt hemode l
    e rde velopst hei ni t
    ialc ha rac t
    eriza tionoft hepr obl em
    t
    hr oughdi scus sionwi tht hec lientt eam,s upple me nt edbya rc hivalr e se a
    r ch,da ta
    collec tion,i ntervi ews ,a nddi recto bs erva ti
    onorpa rt
    icipa tion.The rea rema ny
    me thodsa va il
    a blet owor kwi thagr ou pt oe lic
    itt hei nforma tionne ede dt ode fine
    t
    hepr o bl emdyna mi c
    a l
    lywhi l
    es t
    illke eplngt hec onve rsat
    ionf oc usedf irml yo nthe
    cli
    e ntsa ndt he irpr oblem. 5T wooft hemos tus efulpr oc essesa rees t
    a blis hingr efer-
    enc emode sa nde xplicitlys etti
    ngt het imehor i
    z on.

    Ref
    erenceModes
    Sys t
    em dyna micsmode lersseektoc har
    a c
    ter i
    zethepr oblem dynami cal
    ly,t
    ha tis ,

    asapa tt
    ernofbe havior ,unfoldi
    ngove rti
    me, whichs howshowt hepr oblema rose
    andhowi tmih te
    g volvei nthefuture.Yous houldde ve lopar e
    ferencemode ,liter
    -
    all
    yas etofgra phsa ndot he rdescrl
    ptl
    Veda tashowi ngt hedevelopme ntoft he
    problem overtime.Re ferencemode s(so-Calle
    dbe ca us eyour efe
    rba ckt othe m
    throughoutthemode l
    ingpr ocess)helpyoua ndyourc li e
    ntsbreakoutoft heshor t
    -
    ter
    me vent-
    orie
    nt edwo r
    ldviews oma nype opleha ve･ Tbdos oyoua ndthec li
    e nt
    s
    mus tidentif
    yt het imehor i
    zona ndde finet hoseva r
    iablesandc onceptsyo u
    considertobei mpo rt
    a ntforunde rs
    tandingt heproble ma nddesigningPOl i
    ciesto
    solveit.

    Ti
    meHon
    'zon
    Thetimehor i
    zonshouldextendfarenoughbac
    kinhis
    tor
    yt oshowhowt heprob-
    leme mergeda nddescri
    beitss ymptoms.Its
    houldext
    endf arenoughint
    ot he
    fut
    uretocapturet
    hedelayeda ndindi
    rec
    teff
    ect
    sofpot
    ent
    ialpoli
    cies
    .Mostpeople
    dramati
    call
    yunde r
    est
    imatethelengthofti
    medela
    ysandselectt
    imehoriz
    onsthat

    se
    5 ethere
    fer
    enc
    esi
    nnot
    e9formode
    lin
    gtoo
    lst
    hata
    ree
    fect
    i
    veforr
    ea一
    ti
    memode
    li
    ngwi
    th
    o
    rga
    n i
    zat
    ion
    sandte
    amsi
    ncl
    udi
    ngel
    ic
    it
    ingands
    tr
    uct
    ur
    lngt
    hemen
    tal
    model
    sofag
    rou
    ptode
    fi
    ne
    t
    hepro
    blem.
    Ch
    apt
    er3 Th
    eMo
    del
    i
    ngP
    roc
    ess 91

    aref a rtoos hor t･A prlnC IPa lde fi


    c i
    e nc ylnOurme ntalmode lsi sourt endenc yt o
    thinkofc aus ea nde ffecta sl ocala ndi mme diate.Buti ndyna mi c al
    lyc ompl exs ys
    -

    tems ,Caus ea nde ff


    ecta redi st
    antint imea nds pace. Mos toftheuni ntendede fe ct
    s
    ofde cisi
    onsl ea dingtopol icyr esistanc einvolvef eedba ckswi t
    hl ongde l
    ays ,farr e
    -
    move dfromt hepol ntOfde c is
    iono rt hepr oblems ympt om･ Wor kwi thyourc lients
    tot hinka boutt hepos s i
    bl er eactionst opoliciesa ndhowl ongt he ymi ghtta ket o
    playouta ndt he ninc r
    e aset het imehor i
    zone ve nf ur
    the rAl
    . ongt lmehor izoni sa
    criticalant idotet othee ve nLo rientedwor ldviews oc rlpplingtooura bil
    it
    yt oi den-
    tif
    ypa t
    ternsofbe haviora ndt hef eedba ckstructuresge neratl
    ngt hem.
    Thec hoi ceoft i
    mehor izondr a ma tica
    llyi nf
    lue nc esyourpe rcepti
    onOft he
    probl em. Figur e3- 3s howspr oduc tion, consumpt lOn,a ndi mpor tsofpe t
    roleumi n
    theUni t
    edSt a t
    e sfrom 1 986t o1 996. Thehi storicaltimehor iz oni s1 0yea rs,a l
    -
    readyal ongt imer elati
    vet omos tdi scussi
    onofe nergypol icy( theoi lshoc ksof
    the1 970sa rec o nsi
    de reda nc i
    enthi storyi nmos tpolicyde batet oda y).Thegr a phs
    show pr od uc tions lowl yt rendingdown,c onsumpt lOnt rendi ngs l
    owl yup,a nd
    there forei mpo rtsg rowl ngmode stl
    y.Pr ic
    esfluc tuatei nana rrow ba ndbe t
    we en
    $14a nd$23pe rba n℃1, l
    owe rthana nyt i
    mes inc ethe丘r stoilcrisisin1 973( t
    houg h
    price sdi ds piket o$40 /ba rrela ft
    e rt heI r
    aqii nva si
    onofKuwa it,theys oonf el
    l
    bac k) ･Thee ne rgys ystema ppe a
    rst ober elat
    ive l
    ys table;therei slitt
    leevidenc eof
    along- te
    r mpr o blem.

    GURE3
    FI -
    3
    USoilpr
    oduc
    ti
    on,
    con
    sumpti
    on,
    i
    mpors,
    t andpr]
    ce
    overa1
    0-year
    t
    imehor
    izon

    1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

    $
    J
    0
    q
    M
    L
    6
    EIA
    Egency)
    ormatl0nA
    nf
    nergyl (US
    S A
    w
    ource:
    nergyF7
    nnualE
    evi
    e
    r
    92 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    tiv
    ean
    dPr
    oce
    ss

    Nowc ons iderFi gure3- 4, showingt hes ameva riablesf romne art hebe gi nning
    oft heoi le ra( thepe troleum i ndustrybe gani ne arnesti n1 859wi t
    hCol one l
    Dr ake' sf amouswe llinTi t
    usvi l
    le,Pe nnsylvania )
    ･Thei mpr ess i
    oni sc ompl etely
    dife r
    e nt.Thehi storyoft heoi lindustrylnt heUni tedSt atesi sdi videdi ntot wo
    regl me S･Fr om 1 920t hrough1 973, consumpt lOngr e we XpOne ntiall
    ya tana ve r age
    rateof4･ 3%/ yea r･Pr oductionnea r
    lyke ptpa ce,a se xplor ationa ndbe tt
    e rdr illi
    ng
    techni quesmor et hanof fsetde pleti
    on. Start
    inglnt he1 950S ,impo rt
    sg r
    ews light l
    y,
    Stimul atedbyt hea va il
    abilit
    yofc heapf orei
    gnOi l.Pr icesfluc tua ted, oftend ra ma t
    -
    ically,buta longas lowl yde clinlngtrenda stechnol ogyl mpr OVe d.Al lthisc ha nge d
    in1 970･I n1 970,dome sticpr oductionofoi lpe ake d. It'
    sbe enf allinge vers ince,
    des pitethei ntens ee xplorations ti
    mul atedbyt hemuc hhi ghe rpr lCeSOft he1 970s
    ande arly1 980S ･
    USpr oduc ti
    onf romt helowe r48s tatesa nda dja centofs horea rea
    in1 996s tooda tonl y54%ofi tspeakl evel.Eve nthea dditionofPr udhoeBa ya nd
    thet rams -
    Al a skapl pe li
    nedi dnotha ltthes l
    ide,a ndAl aska npr oduc tionpe a ke di n
    1988･Hi ghe rpr l
    C eSf oll
    owl ngt he1 970Soi lshoc ks ,alongwi tht hede epe s
    tr e ces-
    sionss inc etheGr eatDe pr essi
    on, cutthegr owt hofc onsumpt lOn, buti mpor tsne v-
    erthe l
    e ssrea che d61 % oft otalo i
    lcons umpt i
    onby1 996.
    Cha nglngt het i
    mehor izonc ompl etel
    yc hange sthea ssessme ntoft hepr obl em.
    Vi ewe dwi h at
    t i
    mes c al
    ec onsi st
    entwi ththelifeoft her e sour ce, itisc leartha tthe
    pe t
    role umpr obl emwa sn'tsolve dinthe1 980sbutha sbe ens te adilyge tt
    lngwor se.

    8
    m

    FIGURE3- 4
    USoi l
    produc t
    ion,
    consump t
    ion,
    ^e
    c l
    ,
    2

    i
    mpor s,andpr
    t lC
    e
    J
    ■
    l
    S]aJJt

    overa1 30-year
    ti
    mehor i
    zon
    2g uO

    6
    ≡!
    yU

    1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

    1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990


    ce:P
    Sour r
    odu
    cti
    on&c o
    nsump
    ti
    on:1
    870-1949,Dav
    idsen(1
    988)
    ,1950-1966,
    EIAAnnua/Ener
    gy
    F7
    evew･
    i Pr
    i
    ce:1880
    -1968,
    Davl
    ds
    en(1988)
    ;1968-1996,EI
    AAnnualEner
    gyRevew
    i ,Refi
    ners
    Ac
    qul
    Si
    t
    10nCo
    st.
    a
    C h p te r 3 T h eM ode
    lingPo ce
    r s
    s 93

    Pe troleum i saf ini tenonr e ne wa bler esourc e.IntheUS,de pletionbe ga nt odomi -


    na tef i
    nd ingr a t
    e si nt he1 960S ,le adingt oa ni nevitablede c li
    nei npr oduc tion, ade-
    clinet hatbe ga ni n1 970.TheUni tedSt atesi sthemos thea vilye xpl ore da nd
    de ns el
    yd rill
    edr e gionOft hewor ld. Theve rys ucces sofe a rlywi ldc atte rsi nfind-
    1ngOi lme anst he r ei sle ssl eftt of indnow. Whi l
    enota llt hepe trole um i nt heUS
    ha sbe e nf oundo rr ecove r ed,c ons umpt lOnC Ontinue st oe xc eedt her a tea twhi ch
    wha tr ema insi sf ound.Cons e que nt l
    y,1 mpO rtSC Ontinuet ogr ow,l ea di ngt os t
    il
    l
    gr eaterde pende nc yont heuns tablePe rsi
    a nGul fre glOn,S tillmor epol iticala nd
    ec onomi cpowe rf ort heoi le xpor tl
    ngC Ount riesandl essf ort heUS,a nd,e ventu-
    ally, highe roi lpr ic es,e i
    the ra tthepumpo ri nt hede fe nsebudge t･
    6
    Theoi lindus tryi llustr atest heda nge rsofs el
    e c
    tingat imehor izont oos hortto
    ca pturet hei mpo rta ntdyna mi csa ndf eedba cksc rea t
    lngt he m.Ofc our se,onec an
    errt oof a
    ri nt heot he rdi rect ion.Fi gure3- 5S howsagr a phdeve lope dbyt hel a
    te
    pe tr
    ol eumge ol og is tM･ K血gHubbe rt.Hubbe rtinvent e dt hemos ts uc c es sfultech-
    niquef orf orec as tlngf os silf ue lpr oduc tione ve rcrea ted. In1 956hees tima tedt he
    ultima ter ecove ra bl epe trol eumr esour cesoft heUSt obebe twe en1 50a nd200bi l
    -
    lionba rrelsandf or e casttha tH thepe aki npr oduc ti
    ons houl dpr oba blyoc c urwi thin
    thei nterva l1 966 -1 971 "( Hubbe r t1975, p.3 71 )
    ･Hi spr e dic ti
    onofde c li
    nec amea t
    at imewhe nt heUSGe ol ogi ca lSur ve ypr oje ct
    edul ti
    ma ter ecove ra bl er e sources
    ne arlyt hre etime sa sl argea ndc laime dH thes i
    zeoft her es our ceba s ewoul dnot
    limi tdomes ticpr oduc ti
    onca pa cltyG i
    nt hene xt1 0to20ye arsa tle as t,a ndpr oba-
    blyl not]f oramuc hl onge rt ime" ( Gillette1 974) .Thea ctualpe akoc cur r
    edi n
    1970a talmos tt hepr ec iseva lueHubbe rtha dpr edic ted,oneoft hemos ta ccurate
    long- termf ore cas tsonr e cor d. Hubbe r
    t '
    ss ucc esslayl ne xpl icitlymode lingoi las
    anonr ene wa bl er es ourc e.Pr oduc ti
    onc ouldgr owe xpone nt iallyi nthee ar l
    ypha ses

    GURE3
    FI -
    5
    u

    Thef ossi
    lfuel
    o!t
    onpod^6J

    erash ownwi t
    ha
    t
    imehor izonof
    l

    15,000y ears
    l
    ]SSOm auu

    1
    10,
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    ce: a
    pte
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    omHu
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    rt(
    196
    2)

    6Ther
    eisalar
    geli
    te
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    ureofene
    rgymodel
    inglnSys
    temdyna
    mics7
    0rl
    gln
    atl
    ngWit
    hwo r
    kin
    Meadowseta･(
    l 197
    4)･Se
    e,e.g
    .,Bac
    kus(1
    996),BunnandLa
    rse
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    ,Fi
    ddaman(199
    7),
    For
    d( 1
    990,19
    97,1999
    ),FordandBul
    l(19
    89),Nail(
    l 19
    77,1
    992),
    andNail
    leta
    l.(1
    992)f
    or
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    her
    en
    ergypol
    icyl
    SSueS
    ･
    94 P
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    I P
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    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    ofi tsl ifec yc lebutha dt of al


    lt oz e r
    oa sitwa sde pleted,forci ngat ra nsitiont or e-
    ne wa blee ne rgys our ces･7Tbe mpha sizet het rans itor yna t
    ureoff os s
    ilf ue lc ivili
    z a-
    tion,Hubbe rts howe dt hepr oduc tionoff ossilf ue l
    sonat imes c alef rom t he
    be ginnl ngOft hea grlC ulturalr evol ution 0,
    1 000yea rsa got o5000ye arsi nt hef u-
    ture.Aga ins tt hisba c kdr op,thef os s
    i lfue le rai ss eena sat ra nsitor ys pi ke -a
    unl quepe ri
    oddur i
    ngwhi chhuma nltyl ivese xtr ava gantlyof far ichi nhe r i
    t anc eof
    irrepl ace ablena turalc api tal.Thepi cturei ss obe ring.ButHubbe rt'spl mPl e ,asi t
    wa sc alledbyc ri
    tics,take sat imehor izont ool ongt obeus ef ult opol i
    c yma ke rs
    whoi nf
    lue nc epubl icpol icyo rc orpor ates trate gya fe cti
    nge ne rgypr ice s,r egul a-
    tions ,c apitali nve st
    me nt,a ndR&D.
    Thec hoi ceoft imeho rizonc a ndr ama ti
    c a l
    lyi nfl
    ue nc et hee valua t
    ionof
    pol icies. Int hee arl
    y1 970saUSgove rnme nta ge ncyc onc erne dwi thf ore igna id
    spons ore damode lfoc us edont heSa he lre glOnOfs ub-Saha ra nAf ri
    c a .TheSa he l
    wa st hene xpe rienc l
    ngr a pidpo pul ationgr owt ha tthes amet imet hedes e rtwa s
    expa ndings outhwa rd,r e duc inggr azlngl andf ort henoma di che rder s'ca ttle.The
    pur pos eoft hemode lwa stoi dent i
    fyhi ghl e ve ragepol i
    c iest os pure conomi c
    de ve lopme nti nt her egi on. Themode lwa sus edt oa s s
    esst hee fe ctsofma nyof
    thepol iciest he ninus e,s uc ha sdr ill
    ingbor ehol est oi ncreaset hewa ters uppl yf or
    ca t
    tlebyt appi ngde epa qui f
    e rsors ubs idizingc r opss ucha ss orghum a ndgr ound
    nut s. Runnl ngt hemode lt ot heye a r2000,ar oundnumbe rs ever alde cade si nt he
    futur ea tthet ime,S howe dt hatt hepol iciesl e dt oi mprove me nt .Subs idie sin-
    cre ase da grlC ulturalout put .Bo rehol espe rmi ttedc a
    ttlestockst ogr ow, inc re aslng
    thes uppl yofmi l
    ka ndme ata ndt hewe althoft hehe rders. Howe ver ,runnl ngt he
    mode lintot hef ir
    stde c a
    de softhe21 stc ent urys howe dadi f
    f erento ut come: large r
    stoc ksofc attlebe gant oout st
    r i
    pt hec arrylngC apa CltyOft her eglO n. Ast hec attle
    ove rbr ows e da ndt rampl edt hegr as sl
    a nds ,e ros iona nddes e rti
    fic ationi nc r
    e ase d.
    Thec att
    lepo pul ati
    o nd ro ppe ds ha rply, creatingaf oodde ficitint her e glOn. Se l
    e ctl
    lngat i
    meho rizont oos hor ttoc apturet hes ef ee dba cksf avor eda dopt ionOfpol i-
    ciesc ount ert ot helong- te rmi nte restsoft her egl On' spe oplea ndt hemi ssionoft he
    clientor gani zation･8
    Mode le rsmus tgua rda galnS taC Cept l
    ngt hec l i
    e nt'sinit
    iala sse ssme ntoft hea p-
    propr i a
    tet imef rame. Oft ent he sea reba sedonmi lestonesa ndr oundnumbe rsha vl
    lngl ittl
    et odowi t
    ht hedyna mi c soft hepr obl em, suc ha sthee ndoft hef isca lye ar,
    Ort hene xt5- ye arplan nlng Cy cle.Ag oo dr u eo
    l ft hu mbi s tos ett het i
    mehor izon
    sev era ltime s a s l
    onga sth el on gest timed el ays int hes yst
    e m, andt h ens o me.

    3息2 For
    mu月
    a抽 gaDynami
    cHypo竜
    的es岳
    s
    Oncetheprobl
    em hasbee
    ni de
    nti
    fi
    edandc
    hara
    cte
    riz
    edoverana
    ppr
    opri
    atet
    ime
    hor
    izon,model
    ersmustbegi
    ntodevel
    opat
    heor
    y,cal
    ledad
    ynami
    chypot
    hesi
    s,t
    o

    7
    ste
    rma
    nandRi
    cha
    rds
    on(1985)
    ,St
    er
    manet
    l.(
    a 1 ,
    988)an
    dSt
    er
    man
    ,Ri
    cha
    rds
    on,
    andDa
    vid
    sen
    (
    1990)mo
    del
    hewo
    t rl
    dan
    dUSp
    etr
    ol
    euml
    i
    fec
    ycl
    esa
    nds
    tud
    yth
    ee.
    Vo
    lut
    i
    ono
    fes
    ti
    mat
    eso
    fth
    e
    r
    esou
    rcebase
    ,Sho
    wingwh yHub
    ber
    t wa
    ssoac
    cura
    tewh
    il
    eoth
    eres
    tl
    mat
    io
    nmetho
    dspr
    ove
    dso
    wi
    ldl
    yo ve
    ropt
    lmi
    st
    ic.
    8p
    icard
    iandSei
    fe
    rt(976)d
    1 e
    scr
    ibeo
    neofse
    ver
    almode
    lso
    fth
    eSahe
    lre
    gio
    n(t
    hemode
    l
    de
    scr
    ibedabo
    vewasnotpubl
    is
    hed)
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er3 Th
    e Mo
    del
    i
    ngP
    roc
    ess 95

    ac countf ort hepr oble ma ticbe ha vi or


    . Yourhypot hes isisdyna mi cbe c ausei tmus t
    pr ovidea ne xpl anationoft hedyna mi csc harac t
    e r
    lZ lngt hepr obl e
    mi nt e r
    msoft he
    unde rlyingf ee dbacka nds toc ka ndf lows t
    uc
    r t
    ur eoft hes ystem. Itisahypot he si
    s
    be caus eiti sa lwa yspr ovi siona l,s ubje c
    tt or evisionora bandonme nta syoul earn
    fromt hemode li
    ngpr oc essa ndf romt her ea lwor ld.
    Adyna mi chypot he sisi sawor kingt heor yofhowt hepr obl ema rose. Itgui des
    mode linge f
    for tsbyf oc us l
    ngyoua ndyourc lientsonc ertai
    ns t r
    uc tur e
    s .Muc hof
    ther ema inde roft hemode li
    ngpr oc e
    s she lpsyout ot estthedyna mi chypot hes is,
    bot hwit ht hes imul ationmode la ndbye xpe ri
    me ntsa ndda ta
    _col lec t
    ioni nt her ea
    l
    wor l
    d.
    h pr a ct
    ic e,di scus sionoft hepr obl ema ndt he or i
    esa boutt hec ausesoft he
    pr oblema r
    eJ umbl edt oge the rinc onve rs
    a t
    ionwi thc lientteams .Ea chme mbe rof
    at eaml ikelyha sadi fe r entt he orya boutt hes our c eoft hepr obl e m;youne e dto
    ac knowl e dgea ndc aptur et he ma l
    l. Ma nyt lme Sthepur pos eofthemode list os olve
    ac ri
    ticallyI mpo rtantpr obl e mt ha tha spe r s
    istedf orye arsa ndge neratedgr ea
    t
    confli cta ndnotal ittlea ni mos lt
    ya mongme mbe rsoft hec lientt e am.Al lwi l
    l
    tena cious lya dvoc at
    et he irpos itionswhi l
    ede ridi ngt hevi e
    wsofot hersi nt he
    gr oup･ Ea rl
    yl nt hemode li
    ngpr oc e ss,themode l
    e rne edstoa cta saf acilit
    ato r,cap-
    tur l
    ngt he seme ntalmode lswi t
    houtc rit
    icizlngOrf ilteri
    ngt he m.Cl arif
    yi nga nd
    pr obingques tionsa reof tenus eful ,butt hemode ler'sr oleduringt hi se arlypha seis
    tobeat hought fullistene r,notac ont ente xpe rt･Ava rie
    tyofe lic i
    ta ti
    ont e
    chni ques
    anddi agra mml ngt ool sha vebe ende ve l
    ope dt oa ss istyoui nf ac i
    litatlngaPr od uc-
    tivec onve r
    sa t
    iont oe lici
    tpe o ple'St heo ri
    esa boutt heca usesoft hepr obl em･ 9Y our
    goa list ohe lpt hec lientde ve lopa ne ndoge nouse xpl a
    na ti
    onf ort hepr o
    bl ema t
    ic
    dyna mi cs .

    EndogenousExpl
    anat
    l
    ron
    Sys t
    em dyna mi css eekse ndoge nouse xplanationsf orphe nome na.Thewor d" en-
    doge nous "me a ns" arisi
    ngf r
    om wi hi
    t n･''
    Ane ndoge noust he oryge neratesthedy-
    naic
    m sofas ystemt hroug hthei nteracti
    onoft heva ria
    bl esa nda gentsrepresented
    inthemode l･Bys pecifyinghowt hes yst
    e mi ss t
    ruc tureda ndt her ulesofinterac-
    tion(thede cisi
    onr ulesint hesys t
    e m) ,
    yo uca ne xplor ethepa t
    ternso fbehaviorcre-
    atedbyt hoser ulesa ndt ha tst
    ructur eande xplor ehowt hebe haviormi ghtchange
    ifyoua l
    terthes tructurea ndr ules. Ⅰ
    nc ontrast
    ,at he oryr elyingone xoge nousva ri
    -
    ables( those" a ri
    singf r
    om wi thout ,
    "t hatis,f rom out sidet hebounda r
    yoft he
    mode l
    )e xplainst hedyna mi csc ･
    fva ri
    ablesyouca rea bouti nte r
    msofot herva ri
    -
    ableswhos ebe ha vioryou' veas sume d.Exoge nouse xplana tionsa r
    er eall
    ynoe x-
    planation ata ll;the ys impl ybe gt heques tion,Wha tca us edthee xogenous
    variablestoc ha ngea sthe ydi d?Thef ocusi nsys t
    e mdyna mi csone ndoge nouse x-
    planationsdoesnotme anyous houl dne verinc ludea nye xoge nousva ria
    blesi n
    yourmode l
    s.Bu tthenumbe rofe xogenousI nput sS houl dbes ma l
    l,ande achc an-
    didatef orane xoge nousI nputmus tbec a r
    eul
    f lys c ruti
    ni zedt oc onsiderwhe ther

    9
    Thel
    i
    ter
    at
    ur
    eong
    rou
    pmo
    del
    bui
    l
    din
    gisg
    rowi
    ngr
    api
    dl
    y.Re
    aga
    n-Ci
    ri
    nci
    onee
    tl.
    a (
    199
    1),
    Mor
    ecr
    oft
    andS
    ter
    man(
    199
    4)Ve
    , n
    nix(
    199
    6),
    andVe
    nni
    xet
    al.
    (19
    97)
    pro
    vid
    ego
    odo
    ver
    vi
    ewso
    f
    t
    ool
    san
    dte
    chn
    iqu
    est
    oel
    i
    cit
    andc
    apt
    ur
    eth
    eme
    nta
    lmo
    del
    soft
    eamsa
    ndc
    li
    ent
    gro
    ups
    .
    96 Pa
    rtI Pe
    rsp
    ect
    ivea
    ndPr
    oce
    ss

    the rea rei nf ac tanyI mpo rta ntf eedba cksf romt hee nd og e no use le me n tst othec an-

    d ida te.Ifs o, thebo unda ryo ft hemode lmus t bee xpa nd eda n dt heva riabl emus tbe
    mo de l
    ede ndo g eno us l
    y.
    Thec ons e que nc eso fna rro w mode lbo unda r i
    e sa ndr e lianc eo ne xo ge nous
    va ria blesa r eo ftens e rious .At ypi cale xampl ei spr ov ide db yt hePr o jec tInde pe n-
    de nc eEva lua tionSys tem( PI ES)mode l, ahy br idmo de lba sedo nl ine arpr og r am-
    ml ng, eCO nO me t
    ric s,andi npu t/ou tputa na lys isus edi nthe1 9 70sbyt heUSFe de ral
    Ene rgyAd mi ni stration( FEA)a ndl a terbyt heUSDe pa rtme nto fEne r gy .Asde -
    sc ribe dbyt hePEA, t hepu rpos eo ft hemode lwa -
    stoe va lua ted ifferer-
    lte ne rgyPOl i-
    c iesa cco rdi ngt ot hef ol lowl ngC rite ri
    a:t he iri mpa cto nt hede ve lo pme nto f
    a lt
    e na
    r t
    ivee ne rgys our ces; theiri mpa ctone co no mi cg r owt h, inf
    la t
    i on, a ndune m-
    pl oyme nt ;t he irr egl Ona la nds oc iali mpa c ts;t heirv ulne ra bilityt oi mpo rtdi srup-
    tions ;andt he ire n vironme ntale fe cts.
    Surpr lSlng ly ,c ons ideringt hes t
    a tedpur pos e ,thePI ESmode lt r
    e atedt hee con-
    omya se xog enous .Themod e le c
    ono my( inc ludi nge c o nomi cg r owt h,i nte rest
    ra tes ,i
    nfla tio n, wo rldo ilpr i
    ce s,a ndt hec os tso func onv ent iona lfue ls)wa sc o m-
    pl ete l
    yuna ffec tedbyt hee ne rgys it
    ua tion( inc ludingpr ice s, pol ic i
    es ,a ndpr o duc -
    tion) .I
    nt hemo de l,e venaf ul
    le mba rgoofi mpo rtedo ilo rado ubl i
    ngo foi lpr i
    ce s
    wo ul dha venoi mpa cto nt hee co nomy .
    Treatlngt hee co nomye xoge nous lyma det hePI ESmode li nhe rent lyc ont ra-
    di cto ry.Be caus eita ssume dh ighr a
    t esofe c ono mi cg rowt ha ndl o wpr icee lastici-
    ties ,ltprq】 e Ctedh ug ei nc rea sesi ne ne r gyde ma nd, r equl rlnge v eng re ateri nc rea s
    e s
    int hec a pit alr e qulr eme nt SOft hee ne rgys e cto ra sc he apdo me s t
    icoi lwa sc on-
    sume d.Int hemo de l,the seh ugei nve stme ntsi ne ne rgyp r oduc tio nwe r es atisf i
    e d
    wi tho utr e duc ingl nVe St
    me ntO rC OnS umpt lO ni nt her esto ft hee cono mya ndwi th
    noi mpa cto ni n tere stra t
    e so ri nfla t
    io n. Ine ff ec t
    , t
    hemod ell e tthee cono myha ve
    itspl cande ati tto o.
    I npa rt be c aus ei tIgno re dt hef e
    e d ba cksbe twe ent hee ne rgys e ctora ndt her est
    oft hee co no my ,thePI ESmod elc ons iste ntlypr ove dt obeo ve r opt l
    mi sticJn1 974
    themode lpr qe ctedt hatby1 98 5t heUSwoul dbewe llo nt hewa yt oe ne rgy
    inde pende nc e:e ne rgyI mpo r
    tsWOul dbeonl y3. 3mi llionba n℃l spe rda ya nd
    pr oduc t
    io no fs ha leo ilwo uldbe250, 000ba rrelspe rda y.Fur t
    he rmo r
    e ,t hes e
    de ve lopme ntswo ul dbea cc ompa niedbyoi lpr ice so fa bo ut$ 22pe rba rrel( 1 984
    dol la rs
    )a ndbyvi go rouse c onomi cg rowt h.I tdi dn' tha ppe n.Ⅰ mpo rtsi nt hel ate
    1 98 0Swe rea bo ut5. 5mi lli
    onba rre l
    spe rda ya ndg rewt omo ret ha nha lfo fo ilc on-
    sumpt l
    Onbyt hemi d1 99 0S .Sha leoi la ndo the re xo tics y nfu elsne verma terializ ed･
    Thi ss i
    tua tionp re va ile
    dd e spiteh uger ed uc tionsi noi lde ma ndc a use dbyo il prlCe S
    int hee ar ly1 98 0sg reatert ha n$30 /bbla ndt hemos ts er iousr e ces sions inc et he
    Gr e atDe pr ess ion.
    Abr oa dmod e lbo unda ryt ha tc a ptur esi mpor tantf ee dba cksi smor ei mpor -
    tantt hanal oto fd etailint hes pe ci
    f ic at
    io nofi nd ivid ua lc o mpo ne nts. Iti swo r
    th
    no tlngt ha tt hePI ESmod el pro vide dabr ea kdowno fs uppl y ,d ema nd, andp ricef o r
    doz enso ff ue lsi ne a chr eglO nOft hec o unt ryye ti tsa ggr e gatepr oje ctions
    we ren'te ve nc l
    os e. Wha tpu rpos ewa ss erv edbyt hee ff ortde vo t edt of o rec astlng
    thede ma ndf o rJe tf ue lo rna ph thai nt hePa ci f
    icNo rthwe stwhe nt heba sica sI
    sumpt l
    OnSWe reS Opa lpa blyI na dequa tea ndt hema inr e sultswe r es owoe fu l
    ly
    errone ous ?
    Cha
    pte
    r3 TheMo
    del
    ingPr
    oce
    ss 97

    Ma
    ppl
    ngSy
    ste
    mSt
    ru
    ctu
    re
    Syst
    emdynami
    csincl
    udesava r
    iet
    yoftool
    stohelpyoucommunicat
    ethebound一
    打yofyourmodelandrepr
    esenti
    tsca
    usalst
    ruct
    ure･
    Theseinc
    ludemodelbound-
    ar
    ydi a
    gra
    ms,subsys
    tem dia
    grams,causa
    lloopdiagr
    ams,ands t
    ockandf l
    ow
    mapS･

    Modelboundar ychar .t Amode lbo undaryc ha r


    ts umma rizesthes c opeoft he
    mode lbyl ist
    lngWhi c
    hke yva r
    iablesa reinclude de ndoge nous ly,whi c
    ha ree xoge -
    nous ,a ndwhi cha ree xclude df r
    omt hemode l.
    Toi l
    lustr
    ate,Ta ble31 2s howsamode lbounda rydi a gramf oramode lde signe d
    tos t
    udyt hef e
    e dba cksbe t
    we ent hee ne r
    gys yste ma ndt hee conomy( Sterma n
    1 983) .Pa rtl
    yinr ea cti
    ont othel i
    mi tati
    onsofe xisti
    ngmode lssuc ha sPIES, theDe -
    pa rtme ntofEne rgyl nt hel ate1 970ss oughtt ode ve lopdyna mi cmode l
    swi t
    ha
    br oade rbounda ry( Na ill1 977,1992) .
    Thepur pos eoft hemode lwa stoe xpl oret he
    impa ctofhi ghe re nergypr icesOne c onomi cgr owt h,une mpl oyme nt,i
    nfla t
    ion, and
    interes tratesandhowt he sema croe cono micc onside r
    a t
    ionsmi ghtc onstrainthede -
    ve lopme ntofne we ne r
    gys ources .Thet i
    mehor izonoft hemode lwa squi t
    el ong
    (1 9501 2050)t oc aptur et hef ul
    ltr a
    ns it
    ionf rom f ossilf uelst or enewa bl eorot he r
    ene rgys ourcesa ndc ons istentwi t
    ht hel ongt lmede laysi nt hede velopme nt,con-
    struc tion,a ndus e full ifeofe ne rgy-pr oducinga nde nergy- cons umi ngC apital
    stoc ks .
    Inc ontras
    tt one arlya l
    lmode lsus e dtoa ddres sthes ei ssuesa tt
    het ime,t he
    mode lha dabr oa dbounda r
    y,wi tha llma j
    orma CrOe COnOmi cva r ia
    blesge ner at
    e d
    endoge nously.Unl i
    ket hePI ESmode l,thec aplt
    al ,la
    bor ,ande nergyre qulre me ntS

    TABLE 31
    2
    Modelboundary Endogenous Exogenous Excl
    uded
    char
    tforarong- GNP Populati
    on I
    nven t
    ori
    es
    t
    ermmode一 of
    Consumpti
    on Technologl
    Calchange I
    nternati
    onal
    trade
    ener
    gy-economy i
    nvestment Taxrates (exceptwi
    thOPEC)
    i
    nter
    acti
    ons
    Savi
    ngs Energypoli
    cies Envir
    onmenta一const
    rai
    nt
    s
    Pri
    ces(r
    ealandnomi
    nal) Nonener
    gyresour
    ces
    Wages(realan
    dnominal
    ) l
    nter
    fuel
    subst
    i
    tuti
    on
    l
    nfl
    ati
    onrate Di
    st
    ri
    but
    ion
    alequi
    t
    y
    Laborf orcepar
    ti
    cl
    pat
    ion
    Emp一 oymen t
    Unempl oyment
    l
    nterestr at
    es
    Moneysuppl
    y
    Debt
    Ener
    gyproduct
    i
    on
    Ener
    gydeman d
    Ener
    gyI
    mpor t
    s
    ce:St
    Sour erman(
    1983
    ) .
    98 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    oft hee ne rgyi ndus trieswe ree nd og eno usa ndt hee ne rgyi ndus tryha dt oc ompe te
    aga lnS tO the rs ecto rsfort he ser e sou rce s. Themod els tillc ont aine ds e ve rale xoge -
    no usva riabl es .The sei nc l
    udepo pul a tion,t her a teofove ra llt e chnol ogl C al
    pr og re ss,a ndt hepr l
    CeOfi mpo rte do il･We ret he see 呆oge nousva ria bl esa c cept -
    abl e?Po pul a tiong rowt ha ndt heove r allr a teoft e chni c alpr og r es smi ghtbea f-
    fe ctedbyc ha ng esi ne ne rg yp r lCeSa ndc ons eque ntc ha ng esi nt her ateofe cono mi c
    g rowt h.Ho we ve r,the sef e edba ckss e eme dl ike lyt obes ma ll･Thede cisio nt o
    mode lt hep rlCeO fimpo rte do ile xog eno us lyi smo rep ro ble ma tic･ Cl e arlyt hepr lC e
    o foi la ffec tsbo tht hed e ma ndf ora nds uppl yo fe ne rgyl nt heUni tedSt ates, dete r-
    mi ni ngt heq ua nt i
    tyI mpo r t
    e d. Asama jo ri mpo rte r
    , cha nge sinUSo ilimpo rtsc an
    d rama ticallya ltert hes u ppl y/de ma ndba la nc eo ft heo i
    le x po rtl
    ngna tions ,feedi ng
    ba ckt ot hepr ic eO foi li nt hewo rldma r ke tTr e atlngI mpo rtPr lCe Se XOge nOuS ly
    cu tsa ni mpo rta ntf eedba c kl oo p. Ind isc us singt hebo unda ryo ft hemode lIa rgue d
    ha
    t tthe rewe r
    ei nf actimpo rtantf ee dba c ksbe twe ent heUSe ne rg ys ys tema ndt he
    wo rldo ilma rke t.Butla lsoa r gue dt ha tt hedy na mi csoft hewor ldpr lCeWe reS O
    co mpl e xtha tinc orpo ratlngt he me ndoge no us l
    ywa sbe yo ndt hes co pea ndpur pos e
    o fthepr q】ec t.Iha dp revi ous lyhe lpe dbui ldamod elo ft hewo rldo ilma rketf ort he
    USDe pa rtme nto fEne r gya ndhope dt ha tul t
    ima te l
    yt het womode lsc o uldbe
    JOine d. Th emod elbo unda ryc ha rta lertedt hec lient stoaq ue stio na bl ea ssumpt lOn
    sot he yc o ulde va lua t
    ewha tt hee ff ectoft hemi sslngf ee dba ckmi g htbe.
    Thel isto fe xc l
    ude dc onc e ptsa lsopr ovi de si mpo rtantwa rnlngSt Ot hemode l
    us er.Themo de lomi t
    tedi nve nt orie so fgo odsa ndma terials( andhe nc es hort-ten
    bus ine s sc yc les )-nopr obl emi ns uc hal o ng- termmod eH nt erna t
    i ona lt radewa s
    exc lude d, e xc eptf o rthef lowso foi l,goods ,c api tal,a ndmone ybe twe ent heUS
    andt heo ile x po rtlngna tio ns .Thepe trodol lar sflo wl ngt OOPECa ndt he i
    rr e cy-
    clinga se xpo rtso rfbr elgni nve s t
    me n tha dt obei nc lud ed, butt oi nc ludeno ne ne rgy
    tradewo uldha v ee xpa nde dt hemode lint oag lo balma cr oecono mi cs ys tem, andI
    wo uldpr oba bl ys tillbewo rki ngoni t,Envi ronme nta lc ons traint sa ndno ne ner gy
    re sour ce ss uc ha swa t
    ert ha tmi ghtl imi tne we ne r gys our cesl ikes yn fue lswe ree xI
    clude d, me anl ngC OnC l
    us ionsa bo utt her a teofd ev elo pme ntoft he s ee xo tice ne rgy
    so urc eswo ul dbeov ero pt l
    mi stic. Themode la lsot re atedt hee ne rgys ys temi na
    fairlya g greg atef ashion, s oi nte rfue ls ubs titu t
    io n( oilvs ･ga s,fo re xa mpl e) ,wa sno t
    co ns ide red,a no t
    he ropt lmi stica s sumpt io n.Fi na lly ,themode ld idno tc ons ide r
    inc omed istribut ion, eve nt ho ug hs omee ne rgypo l
    ic iess uc ha sga so linet axe sa r e
    regr es siveu nl es so ffs
    e tbyc ha nge si nt hei nc omet axc od e･ Thepur pos eo fl isting
    allt he seo mi ss ionsf romt hemod e lwa st ohe l
    pmod e lus ersde cidef ort he ms e l
    ve s
    whe the rt hemod elwa sa ppr opr l
    atef ort he irpu rpos e･
    Mod elbo unda rydi ag ramsa res urpr ising l
    yus efula nds ho ck ingl yr ar e･Of te n,
    mode lsa reus e dnota st ool sofi nq ul rybuta swe aponsi nawa ro fa dvoc ac y,
    Ins uc hc a sesmo de lerss ee kt ohi det hea s sumpt 1
    0 nSO ft he i
    rmode lsf rompo ten tial
    critics .Bute ve nwhe nt hemode lers 'mo tive sa rebe ni gn, ma nyf ee lunc omf o rtabl e
    listlngWha tt he y' vel eftout ,s eet heo mi ssio nsa sfla wsa ndpr e fert os t
    re sst he
    strengt hso ft he irmo de l.Whi let hi ste nde nc yl Sna tur al,itunde rcut st heut ilityo f
    yo urmode la ndwe ake nst hea bilityo fpe opl et ol ea rn丘. o ma ndi mpr oveyo ur
    wo rk.Bye x pl icit
    lyl istlngt hec onc e ptsyo uha vec hos e nnott oi nc lude,a tl ea st
    fornow, yo up ro videavi sibler emi nde ro ft hec ave a tst ot her esul tsa ndl imi tat
    io ns
    oft hemode l,Wi tho utac le arund e rstand ingoft hebo unda rya nda ss umpt l
    OnS ,
    Ch
    apt
    er3 Th
    eMo
    del
    i
    ngP
    roc
    ess 99

    mode lsc onst


    uc
    r te
    df oronepur pos earefrequentl
    yus e dfora not
    herforwhi chthey
    areil
    l-suited,Someti
    me sproducingabs ur
    dr es
    ul t
    s.Al ltoooftenmode lswi t
    hcom -
    plet
    elyI nappropri
    atea ndevenbi zarr
    ea ssumptlOnSa boute xogenousande xcluded
    varia
    blesa r
    eus e
    di npol i
    cyma kingbe ca
    us ethemode luse r
    sa r
    euna bletoe xam-
    inethebounda ryoft hemode l
    st hems el
    vesa ndt hemode lershavenotpr ovided
    thatinforma ti
    onfort hem( chapter21pr ovidese xampl es;se eal
    soMe adowsa nd
    Robins on1 985).

    Su
    bsy
    ste
    mdi
    agr
    am.Asubsystem diagram showstheoveral
    lar
    chi
    tec
    tur
    eof
    amode l.Eachma jorSubsystemisshowna l
    ongwi ththeflowsofma teri
    al,mone y ,

    goods,infor
    ma tio
    n, a
    nds oonc oupl
    ingthes ubsystemst oonea not
    her.Subsystems
    canbeor ganizati
    onssucha sthefir
    ma ndt hec ustome rororganiz
    ationalsubunits
    sucha sope r
    a t
    ions,ma r
    ke t
    ing,andpr oductde ve lo
    pme nt･Subsystem diagrams
    conveyi nfor
    ma ti
    onont hebounda r
    ya ndlevelofa ggregat
    ionint hemode lby
    showingt henu mbe randt ypeofdi f
    ferento r
    ga nizati
    onsora gentsrepresented.
    Theya lsocommu nica
    tes omeinformationa boutt heendogenousa nde xogenous
    vari
    ables.
    Int he1960SJ ayForreste
    rse r
    ve dont heboa rdsofse verals
    ucce s
    sfulhi
    gh-t
    ech
    compa niesa ndbecamei nteres
    tedi nt hedyna mi csofc orporat
    egr owth.Tbhelp
    himt hinka boutthes tr
    ategi
    ci ssuesf acingthes efir
    ms ,Forr
    ester(1964,p.32)
    crea
    tedamode ldesigned" t
    os howhowt hedife r
    ingki ndsofc orporat
    egrowth
    pat
    ternsc anbec reat
    e dbydi f
    ferentc orpor a
    tepolici
    esa ndma nage mentatt
    it
    udes
    andbyt hei
    nt e
    racti
    onsbe t
    we enac ompa nya nditsma rke t
    .HFi
    gur e3-6showsthe
    ref
    erenc emode .Forrest
    er(pp.321 33)e xplai
    ned:
    Theve ryrarec ompanyg r
    owss moothl
    y,asincurveA, an
    de vent
    ual
    lyreache
    s
    ahealt
    hys ustai
    nedp l
    ate
    auo fmatureli
    fe.
    Mo refr
    eq uent
    ly,t
    hecompa nyf
    oll
    o wsa
    pat
    te
    r n,a
    si ncurveB, whereitappear
    stosuccee
    da tfir
    standthenencoun
    tersa
    se
    verec r
    is
    i stha
    t l
    e adstobankruptc
    yo rmerger
    .Often,thepat
    ter
    ni sgr
    owthstag-
    nat
    ion,asinc ur
    v eC, ma r
    kedb yn e
    it
    hersucces
    sno rfai
    lure
    .Ofthosecompan i
    es
    whic
    hd os howal ong-te
    rmg rowthtre
    nd,themo s
    tc ommo npatt
    ernist
    hatin
    cur
    veD, wh e
    reg r
    o wthisaccompa ni
    edbyr e
    peate
    dc ris
    is.

    GURE3
    FI -
    6
    Pat
    ter
    nsof
    cor
    por
    ategr
    owt
    h

    Ti
    me
    ℃e.
    Sou/ '
    Ada
    pte
    dfr
    omF
    orr
    est
    er(
    1964)
    .
    1
    00 P
    art
    iPe
    rsp
    ect
    ivea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    For resterargue dtha t"c ontraryt of i


    r stimpr ess
    ions ,onec annote xpl ainthe s e
    dife rencesont heba s isoft hepa rticulari ndustryo rthet ypea ndde signofpr od-
    ucts .
    ..Onemus tthere for elookde epe rint othes t
    ruc t
    ur eofi nforma t
    ionf lowsa nd
    thepol ici
    e swhi chgui deope rati
    ngde cisions"( p･33)･Todos othemode lcons isted
    oft wos ubs ystems ,t
    hec ompa nya ndt hema r
    ke t(Figure3- 7) ･
    Thet wos ubsys temsa r
    ec oupledbyt heo bviousflowsofor de r
    s,pr oduc t,a nd
    mone y:Thef i
    rmr e c
    e ive sor dersfromt hema rke t
    ,shipspr oduc t, andre ce i
    ve spa y-
    me nt.Buti na ddit
    ion,t hef irms endss i
    gna lstothema rketinc ludingt hepr iceOf
    thepr oduc t,itsa vailabi li
    ty( mea sure dbyt hede l
    iveryde lay),i tsfunc t
    iona lity,
    qua li
    ty,suitabilit
    yt oc ustome rne eds ,andot herintangibl ea t
    tributesoft hec om-
    pany' sreput at
    ion. Thema rke trespondst ot heses l
    gna lsthrought heor de rr at
    ea nd
    throughc ustome rf eedba c ka boutpr lC e,qua lit
    y,service, produc tfeature s,ands o
    on.Thedi agrame lega ntlypr esentst hees senti
    alfe edba ckpr oc essesc oupl i
    nga
    fir
    mt oitsma r
    ke t
    ,S t
    res sest hato r
    de rsde pe ndonmuc hmor etha npr lCe,a ndbe gins
    tos ugge s
    tt hes t
    ruc t
    ur ewhi c hmus tbec apturedwi thine a
    c hsubs yst
    em･ For reste r
    rele
    f ctedont hei mpor t anc eoft hisc onc eptua lfra
    me wor ki nhi st hinking:
    Defini
    ngt
    hes yst
    embo undaryandthedeg
    reeo fag
    gregat
    ionaretwoo fth
    emo st
    dif
    fic
    ults
    tepsinsuc
    c es
    sfulmodel
    ing.I
    nthispart
    ic
    ularst
    udy,parLt
    imee f
    for
    tfor
    aboutt
    woy earswasdevotedtofa
    lsest
    art
    sb e
    forear
    ri
    v l
    ngatthepointshownin
    [
    Figure3-7].
    Th e
    reaft
    er,
    on l
    yeightwee
    kswe rereq
    uir
    e dtocr
    eatetheenti
    resys
    tem
    ofsome200e quat
    ions.
    Chapter15pr e
    s ent
    sas impleve rs
    ionoft hismode l,For
    rest
    er '
    S" marke tgrowth
    model"a
    , ndshowshow di f
    fere
    ntma nagementpol i
    ciesca
    nc reat
    et hepa tt
    ernsof
    growt
    hde scr
    ibedi nFigure3-6.
    A mo redetailedsubsystem diagrami ss howni nFigure3- 8･Thedi agr
    am
    showsthea r
    chi t
    ectur
    ef oramode lofas e
    mi conduct
    orma nufacturer(Sterman ,

    Repenning,andKof man1 997).Thepur poseoft hemode lwast oe xplorethe


    dynamicsofpr ocessimproveme ntpr ogr
    ams .Thef i
    rm hadimpl eme ntedave ry

    FIGUR E3-7
    Subs s
    y t
    em
    diag mf
    ra or
    Forr
    e t
    ser'
    s
    corp at
    or egrowt
    h

    m ode一

    Sour Ad
    ce: a
    pte
    dfr
    omF
    orr
    est
    er(
    1964)
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er3 Th
    eMo
    del
    in
    gPr
    oce
    ss 101

    successf
    ulqua l
    ityImpr oveme ntpr ogram.Howe ver,despitedr amatici mpr ove-
    me ntsinqua li
    ty,produc t
    ivity,a ndc ustome rr espons i
    venes s,operatlngPr ofi
    t
    andt hes t
    ockp rl
    Cef ell
    ,lea dingt olayofS ･Expl or
    ingt hispa radoxr e quireda
    mode lwithabr oadbo unda rybot hwi thint her e presenta
    tionoft hef irma ndi n
    int
    e r
    acti
    onsoft hef i
    rm withi tse nvir
    onme nt .Be sidestheus ualsubsys te
    msf or
    ma nufac
    turlng,Pr oductde ve lopme nt,a nd a c countlng,themode li nc l
    udesa
    processimpr oveme ntsect
    ora ndas ect
    orla bele d" Financia
    lSt ress.
    "TheFi nanc i
    al
    Stresssubsys t
    emi snota nor ganizat
    iona ls ubuni tbutr epres ent
    st opma na ge一
    me ntdecisi
    onsr ega r
    dingla yofs ,investme nt,a ndt hea t
    tentiongl VentOPr ocess

    GURE3･
    FI 8 Subsyst
    emdi
    agr
    amf ormodel
    ofas
    emi
    conduc
    torf
    ir
    man
    dit
    squ
    ali
    t
    y
    i
    mprovemen
    t∑progr
    am

    Sour Ad
    ce: a
    pte
    dfr
    omS
    ter
    man
    ,Re
    pen
    nin
    g,a
    ndK
    ofma
    n(1
    997
    ).
    102 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    imp r
    o ve ment.The sede cisionswe r
    ea ff
    ectedbyt hefir
    m' sfinanci
    a lhealt
    ha ndthe
    thr
    e ato ftakeover( asinfluenc edbyt hema r
    ketva l
    ueo fthefirmr elat
    ivetoboo k
    valuea ndc as
    hflow) .Thedi agrama l
    sos howst hatthef i
    rm'ssa lesandma r
    ket
    sharea reendoge nous, asi scompe t
    ito
    rbe havior(
    no tethatcompe t
    itorsrespondnot
    onlytot hef i
    rm'spr icebuta lsotoitsqua l
    it
    yi mproveme ntefo r
    ts)
    . Thes t
    ockprice
    andma rketvaluationo fthef i
    rma realsoendo ge
    no us.
    Su bsystem diagramsa r
    eove rviewsa nds houldno tcontaintoomuc hde t
    ail
    .
    Thed ia gra
    mi nFi gure3- 8isqulteCOmpl ex;subsystemd iagra
    mss ho ul
    dge neral
    ly
    bes i
    mpl er
    . Multiples ubs ys
    tem diagramsc anbeus edtoc onveyt hehi e
    r a
    rchi
    cal
    str
    uc t
    u reoflargemode ls.

    CausaHoopdi agrams, Modelbounda ryc hart


    sa nds ubsyst
    emd iagr
    ams
    s
    ho wtheboundarya ndarchi
    tect
    ureo ft
    hemod elbutdon'
    ts howhowt hevaria
    bles
    ar
    er e
    late
    d.Ca usa
    ll oopdi a
    grams( CLDs)a r
    eflexibleandus efultoolsford i
    a-
    gr
    a mmlngthefeedba c
    ks t
    ructureofsyst
    emsina nydo main･ Causa
    ldi agr
    amsa re
    s
    implyma psshowi ngthec a
    us a
    llinksamongvar i
    able
    swi tha r
    rowsf rom acause
    t
    oa neff
    ect.Chapt
    e r2providesexamples;c
    hapter5c ove
    r stherle
    u sfo rt
    heircon -

    s
    truct
    ionandinter
    pr et
    ati
    oninde pt
    h.

    Stockandf l
    ow maps. Ca usalloopd i
    agr amse mphasizethefe ed backs t
    ruc-
    tureofas ystem.St oc kandf lOwd i
    a gramse mpha s i
    zetheirunde rlyingphys i
    c a
    l
    stuc
    r t
    ure.Stocksa ndf lowst racka ccumul ati
    o nso fma teri
    al,mo ney,a ndi nfor
    ma
    -

    t
    i o
    na stheymovet hroug has ystem.St ocksi nclud einventori
    e sofpr od uct,popul
    lat
    ions,andf inanciala ccountss ucha sde bt,boo kva l
    ue,andc ash. Flowsa ret he
    rat
    e sofinc r
    eas eorde cr
    ea seins t
    ocks ,sucha sprod ucti
    ona nds hipme nts,bi
    rths
    andde aths,borrowi nga ndr epayme nt, i
    nve st
    me nta nddeprec i
    ati
    on,a ndr ecei
    pts
    ande xpend i
    tures.Stoc ksc hara
    c t
    erizethes tateo fthes yst
    ema ndge ne rat
    et hein-
    formationu ponwhi chde c is
    ionsa reba sed.Thed ecisi
    onsthe na l
    tert her ate
    so f
    low,a
    f lt
    e r
    ingt hestoc ksa ndc l
    os i
    ngt hef eedba ckl oopsinthes ystem.Cha pt
    er2
    showse xampl es;cha pter
    s6a nd7d iscusst hema pplnga ndbe havi
    orofs t
    ocksa nd
    lo
    f ws.

    Pol icystructuredi agr ams. Thes ea r


    ecausald i
    a gramss howingthei
    nforma-
    ti
    onl nPutStOaPa r
    ti
    c ul
    ardecis
    ionrule
    . Poli
    cystructuredi agramsfocusat
    tent
    ion
    ont heinformationc uesthemode l
    erassume sdecisionma kersusetogovernthe
    rat
    e sofflowi nt hes yst
    em.The yshowt hec a
    usa lstructureandt i
    mede l
    aysin-
    volvedinpa rt
    icularde c
    isi
    onsrat
    herthanthefeedba c
    ks t
    ructureoftheove
    ral
    lsys-
    te
    m. Chapter15pr ovidesexamples
    ;seeMo r
    ecroft(198 2)forde t
    ail
    s.

    3.
    5.
    3 F
    ormul
    ati
    ngaS…
    mut
    t
    lt
    ionMode
    E
    Onc eyo u'Vede ve l
    ope dani ni t
    ialdynami chypo t
    hesi
    s,modelbo unda r
    y ,andc on-
    ceptualmod el
    , youmus ttestthem. Some t
    imesyo ucantes
    tthed yna michypo the-
    sisdire
    ctlyt hroughda tac ollecti
    o no rexperi
    me nt
    sintherealsystem. Mos toft he
    t
    ime ,howe ver,theconc eptua lmod e li
    ss ocomplexthatit
    sdyna mi cimplic a
    tions
    areunc l
    ear.Asd is
    cussedi nc hapter1 ,Ourabil
    it
    ytoinferco
    rrectl
    yt hedyna mi csof
    ac o
    mpl exmode lisextreme lypoo r.Fur t
    her,i
    nma nysit
    uati
    ons, es
    pe ci
    allyhuma n
    syst
    e ms, i
    ti sdificult,dange rous ,unethica
    l,OrsimplylmPOSSibletoc ond uctthe
    Cha
    pte
    r3 TheMo
    del
    ingPr
    oce
    ss 103

    realwor l
    de xpe r
    ime ntsthatmi ghtr eve althefla wsi nadyna mi chypothesis.Inthe
    maJ Orly ofc
    t a ses,youmus tconduc tthes ee xpe ri
    me ntsinavi rtualwor ld.Todos o,
    youmus tmovef romt hec onc eptualre almofdi agr m st
    a oaf ullyspecifi
    edf orma l
    mode l,compl etewithe quations ,parame t
    er s,andi niti
    a lcondi ti
    ons.
    Ac t
    ually,f orma li
    zlngaC OnC ePtua lmode loftenge ne r
    atesi mportanti nsi
    ght
    evenbe forei tisreadyt obes imul at
    e d.For ma l
    izaionhe
    t lpsyo ut orecognlZeVa gue
    conc eptsa ndr e s
    olvec ontradictionstha twe ntunnot icedorundi s
    cusseddur ingthe
    conc eptualpha s
    e.Fo rma l
    izationi swhe ret her ealt estofyourunde rs
    tandingoc-
    curs:C omput ersac ceptnoha ndwa vinga rgume nts .Inde ed,themos texperienced
    mode l
    e rsrout inel
    ywr it
    es omee qua ti
    onsa nde st
    ima t
    epa r a
    me te
    rsthroughoutt he
    mode l
    ingpr oce ss
    , evenint hee a r
    li
    e stpha s esofpr obl ema r
    ticulat
    iona ndc oncep -

    tual
    iz ati
    on10f tenwi ththec lients-a sawa ytor esolvea mbi gult
    ya ndt es
    ti ni
    tial
    hypot hes e
    s .Sys tem dyna mi cspr acticei nc ludesal argeva r
    ie t
    yoft e
    s t
    sonec an
    applydur ingt hef om ulati
    ons tagetoi de ntifyflawsi npr opos edformul at
    ionsa nd
    impr oveyourunde r
    s t
    andingoft hes ystem.

    3.
    5.4 1
    Tesl
    ing
    Tes tingbe gi
    nsa ss oo na syouwr itethef irstequa tion. Partoft esting,Ofc our se,i s
    compa rl
    ngt hes imul ate dbe havioroft hemode ltot hea c tua lbe havi oroft hes ys-
    tem. Butt estlngI nvol ve sf armor et ha nt her eplic ationofhi sto ri
    ca lbe havio r.Eve ry
    va riablemus tc orre spondt oame aningf lc
    u onc e pti nther ea lwor ld.Eve rye qua
    -

    ionmus
    t tbec hec ke df o rdime ns iona lc ons i
    s t
    enc y( soyo ua ren'ta ddinga ppl esa nd
    or ange s).Thes ens it
    ivi t
    yofmode lbe ha viora ndpol icyre comme ndat i
    onsmus tbe
    as sessedi nlighto ftheunc e rt
    aintyl na SSumpt l
    OnS ,bot hpa ra me trica nds truc tur al
    .
    Mode lsmus tbet es tedunde re xtre mec ondi ti
    ons ,c ondi tionst ha tma yne ve r
    ha vebe enobs erve di nt her ealwor ld.Wha tha ppe nst ot heGDPofas imul at ed
    ec onomyi fyous udde nl yr educee nergys uppl iest oz e r
    o?Wha tha ppe nsinamode l
    ofa na utoma ke ri fyo ur aisethepr lCeOfi t
    sc a rsbyaf a
    c torofonebi ll
    ion?Wha t
    ha ppe nsifyous udde nl yI ncreasede ale rinve nto riesbyl OOO%?Eve nt hought hes e
    condi tionsha vene ve ra ndc ouldne ve rbeobs er ved,t herei snodoubta boutwha t
    thebe havi oroft hes ys temmus tbe: Wi thoute ne rgy,t heGDPofamode rne con-
    omymus tf al
    lne a rlytoz e r
    o; wi t
    hapr lCeOnebi lliont ime shi gher ,t
    hede ma ndf or
    thef irm'sc a
    r smus tfa lltoz e r
    o; Wi thahuges ur plusofc ar sonde alerlots, produc -
    tions houl ds oonf alltoz e r
    obutca nnotbe comene ga t
    ive. Youmi ghti ma ginet ha t
    mode lswoul dne ve rf ailt opa sss uchobvi oust est s,thatpr od uc t
    ionwi thoute ne rgy,
    de ma ndf o rgoodst ha tc os tmor et ha nt het ot alwe althofma nyna t
    ions ,a ndne ga -
    tivepr oduc t
    ionwoul dne ve rarise. Butyou' dbewr ong. Ma nywi de l
    yus edmode ls
    ine conomic s, Ps yc hology ,ma na ge me nt ,andot he rdi sci
    plinesvi olateba sicl a wsof
    phys ics,e vent ho ught he yma yr eplica tehi storica lbe haviorqui tewe ll(Sees ection
    9.3.2a ndc hapt er21 ).Ext remec ondi tionst es t
    s, alongwi thot hert est
    sofmode lbe -
    ha vior,arec riticalt ool st odi scove rt hefla wsi nyourmode la nds etthes tagef or
    impr ove dunde rstandi ng.

    3.
    5.
    5 Po‖Cy Desi
    gn and Eva一
    uati
    on
    Onc
    eyouandth
    ecl
    ientha
    vedeve
    lopedc
    onf
    ide
    nceint
    hestr
    uct
    ureandbehavi
    or
    oft
    hemodel
    ,youca
    nus eitt
    odesigna
    ndeval
    uat
    epoli
    cie
    sforimprovement
    .
    104 P
    art
    IPe
    rs
    pec
    ti
    veandP
    roc
    ess

    Pol i
    cyde si
    gni smuc hmo r
    et ha nc ha ng l
    ngt heva l
    ue sofpa ra
    me terssucha sat ax
    rateorma rkupr ati
    o.Po li
    c yde signi nc ludesthec re at
    ionofe ntir
    elyne ws tra
    teg leS,
    Struct
    ures,andde cisi
    onr ule s.Sincet hef eedba cks t
    ructureofas ystemde termi nes
    itsdy namics,mos to fthet imehi ghl eve ra
    g epo licieswi l
    linvolvec hang l
    ngt he
    do minantfeedba ckloopsbyr e design lngt hes tocka ndnows tuc
    r ture,el
    imi nating
    ti
    med ela
    ys ,c
    ha nglngtheflowa ndq ua lit
    yo finf orma io
    t na vai
    lablea tkeyd ecision
    po l
    ntS,Orfunda mentall
    yr einven tl
    ngt hed ecisionpr ocessesofthea ctorsinthes ys -

    tem.
    Ther obustnessofpo liciesa ndt he irsensitivl
    yt
    t ounc ert
    ainti
    esi nmod elpa ra-
    me tersands t
    ruc t
    uremus tbea ssesse d,inc l
    udi ngt hei
    rpe rfor
    ma nc eunde rawi de
    rangeo falter
    na ti
    ves cenarios. Thei nte r
    ac t
    ionso fdi ffere
    ntpoliciesmus ta lsobe
    cons i
    dered:Be causereals ystemsa rehi ghlyno nlinear,theimpa cto fcombi nation
    pol i
    ciesisus uall
    ynott hes um o ft he irimpa ctsa l
    one.Of tenpol iciesinterfere
    wi t
    ho nea nother;some ti
    me st
    he yr einf orceo nea no t
    he randge neratesubst a
    nt il
    a
    Syne r
    gleS･

    3】
    6 SuMMARY
    Thi sc ha pte rd escribedt hemod e lingp ro cess .Whi let he rea rec ertains tepsa ll mo d-
    eler sgot hr oug h,mode l
    ingl Sno taC OO kboo kpr oc edur e. Ⅰtisf unda me ntallyc re-
    ative. Att hes amet ime ,mod elingl Sad iscipline d, scientifi c,andr igo rouspr ocess,
    cha llengl ngt hemode lera ndc lienta te ve rys tept os ur fac eandt esta ssumpt lOnS,
    ga therda ta, andr e visethe i
    rmod els-bo t
    hf orma la ndme ntal.
    Mode lingl Si terati
    ve.Noo nee ve rbui ltamode lbys tar
    tlngWi t
    hs tep1a nd
    prog re sslngl nS eq uenc eth r
    o ughal isto fa cti
    vi ties ･Mo de l
    i ngl SaC Ont inua lproc ess
    ofi ter atio na mongpr obl ema rticul ation,hy po the sisge ne rat
    ion,da t
    ac ollection,
    mod elf o rmul ation, t
    e st
    ing, anda na lys i
    s .The rea rer evi sionsa ndc ha nge s,blinda ll
    1eysa ndba c ktracking. Effec t
    ivemod elingc on tinua llyc yc le sbe t
    we e ne xpe rime nts
    int hevi r tua lwor ldo fthemode la nde x per ime nt sa ndda tac ollectio ni nther eal
    wo r l
    d.
    Mode lsmus tbec learlyf oc us edo napur pos e･ Ne ve rbui ldamod elo fas ys-
    tem. Mod e lsa res i
    mpl ificati
    o ns; wi tho utac le arpur pos e, yo uha venoba s i
    sf ore x-
    Clud inga nyt hingf romyo urmod ela n dyo ure fo rti sdoo me dt of ai
    lur e.The refore
    themos ti mpo rtantstepi nt hemo de lingpr oc es si swo rkingwi thyo urc lientt oa r-
    ticulatet hepr o blem-t her ealpr obl em, no tthes ympt omsoft hepr oble m, thel aト
    estc risi s,o rt hemos trec entfad. Ofc ourse ,a st hemode lingp roces slea dsyo ut o
    dee pe ri ns ight ,yo urd efiniti
    ona nds ta t
    e me ntoft hepr obl e mma yc hange .Ind eed,
    suc hr a dic alr eframl ngSa reOf tent hemos ti mpo rt anto ut co meofmode ling.
    Thep ur pos eofmode lingl StOhe lpt hec lie ntss olvet hei rpro blem. Tho ug hthe
    mode lingpr oc essof tenc ha lle
    nge st hec l
    ie nt s'c onc e pt10nOft hepr obl e
    m,ul t
    i-
    ma te l
    y , ift hec lientpe rce i
    ve stha tyo u rmod e ldoe sno ta dd resst heirc onc ern, you
    canha vel ittleimpa ct.Themod elermus tno tg ro wa ttache dtoamod el, noma tter
    howe lega nto rho wmuc htimeha sbe eni nve stedi ni t. Ifitdoe sn'the lpt hec lients
    solvet he irpr oblem, i
    tne edst ober evi se dun tilitdoe s.
    Mo de lingt ake splacei na no rga niz ationa la nds oc ialc on t
    e xt･Thes e tt
    ingma y
    beabus ine s sbutc ana l
    s obeag ove r nme nta g enc y ,as c i
    e ntifi
    cc ommuni ty,aP ubl
    li
    cpo lic yde bate,o ra nyo t
    he ro rga n ization. Mode lersa rei n evitablyc aug htu pl n
    Cha
    pte
    r3 TheMo
    del
    ingPr
    oce
    ss 105

    thepo lit
    icsofthec ommu nlt
    ya ndpe rsonali
    ti
    e sofi
    tsme mbe rs
    .Mode l
    ersrequlre
    bo thfi
    r s
    t-
    rateanal
    yt ic
    alski
    llsande xcel
    lentinter
    personalandpoli
    ti
    calskil
    ls.
    Finall
    y,mo del
    er shaveane t
    hicalres
    po nsi
    bili
    tytopursuethemodeli
    ngpr ocess
    wi thrigorandintegrit
    y.Thef actthatmo deli
    nglSe mbeddedi nanorganiz
    a t
    ional
    co nte
    x tandsubj
    e c
    tt opolit
    icalpress
    uresdo esnotreli
    eveyo uofyourresponsibi
    l-
    ltytOC arr
    yO utyourwo r
    kwi t
    ht hehigheststandar
    dso fs
    c i
    entif
    ici
    nqulryandpr o-
    fes s
    iona
    lc onduct.I fyourc l
    ientisno twi ll
    ingtopur s
    uet hemode l
    ingpr ocess
    ho nest
    ly,quitan
    df indyo ur
    selfabe t
    terc l
    ient
    .
    St
    rut,
    hirea
    ndBehav
    ioro
    f
    Dy弧盈m 量
    eSys患
    ems

    L,i
    kealls
    yst
    ems,thecomplexsyst
    emi saninterl
    ockingstr
    uc t
    ureoffeedback
    loops. .Thi sloopstruct
    uresurroundsallde c
    is i
    onspublicorpr i
    vate,
    consci
    ousorunconsc
    ious
    .Theproces
    s e
    sofma nandna tur
    e,ofpsychol
    o gyand
    physi
    cs,o
    fmedicineandengi
    neeri
    ngal l
    fallwit
    hinthisst
    ructur
    e.
    lJ yW.
    a F o
    rr
    e s
    te
    r,Urb
    a nDynamics(1
    969),p.107,

    Thebe ha viorofas ystema risesf r


    omi tss t
    ruc ture.Tha tstruct
    urec onsis
    tsoft he
    feed backl oops ,stocksandmows ,andno nli
    ne arit
    iesc r
    eatedbyt hei nteracti
    o nof
    thephys icala ndi nsti
    tut
    iona lstructu
    reoft hes ystem wi ththede cisi
    on一ma king
    pro cesseso fthea ge
    ntsactlngWi thinit･Thisc hapterprovide sano vervi
    ewo fd y-
    na mi csfo cusl
    ngOnt herela t
    ionshipbe twee ns t
    ructurea ndbe ha vior.Theba sic
    mode so fbe ha viorindyna mics ystemsa r
    ei dentif
    ie dalongwi tht hefe edbac k
    stuc
    r turesg eneratingthem. The semod esin c
    l ud egrowt h,create
    dbypos i
    tivefee d-
    ba ck;goa lsee king,c r
    eatedbyne gaiv
    t efe ed back;a ndos ci
    il
    a t
    ions( including
    da mpe dos c i
    ll
    a ti
    ons,limitc ycles,andc haos) ,Createdbyne gati
    vef eedbackwi th
    timed el
    ays .Mo rec omplexmod essucha sS- Sha pedg rowtha ndo ve rs
    hoota ndc ol-
    lapsea ri
    sef romt heno nli
    ne arintera
    ctiono ft
    he sebasics t
    uc
    r tures
    . Thec haptera l
    s o
    i
    l l
    us t
    ratesthec onceptofreferencemode stoc aptured ynami cbeha viorandcaus al
    loopdi agr amsa same t
    hodt or e
    pr e
    sentfee dba cks t
    uc
    r t
    ure.

    107
    108 P
    art
    IPe
    rs
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    4.
    1 FuNDAMENTALMoDESOFDYNAMI
    C BEHAV1
    0R
    Cha ng etakesma nyf orms ,a ndt heva rietyo fdyna micsaroundusi sa st
    o undi ng.
    Yo umi ghti mag lnethatthe r
    emus tbeac o rres
    po ndi
    nglyh ugeva riet
    yo fdi fe rent
    feedba ckstructurestoa ccou ntf o rs uc har icha r
    ra yofdyna mic s
    .Infa c
    t,mos tdy-
    nami csa r
    ei nst
    anc esofaf a i
    rlys ma llnumbe rofdi st
    inctpatt
    enso
    r fbeha v
    io r,suc h
    asexpo nen ti
    algro wtho ros cillation. Figur e4- 1showst hemos tc ommo nmo desof
    beha vior.
    Themos tf
    u ndame ntalmode sofbe ha viorar eexponentialgrowth,g oa lse ek-
    1ng,a ndos cill
    ation.Ea cho ft he sei sge ne r
    atedbyas i
    mplef Te
    edbac kstruc ture:
    growtha r
    isesfrompos it
    ivef e ed ba ck, goa lseekinga ri
    sesfromne gativefee dba ck,
    andos ci
    ll
    ationa rise
    sf romn e ga tivef eed ba ckwi tht
    imede laysi ntheloo p. Ot her
    commonmod eso fbeha vior,i nc lud ingS- shapedg rowth,S-S hapedg rowt hwi th
    overshoota ndos ci
    ll
    a t
    ion,a ndo ve rshoo ta ndc ol
    lapse,ari
    sef r
    omno nlinea rinter-
    acti
    o nsoft hefunda me ntalfe ed ba c kstruc t
    ur es
    .

    4t
    lEI Exponent
    ia;Gr
    owt
    h
    Ex ponentilg
    a r
    owtha r
    isesfro
    mpos i
    ive(
    t sel
    f-reinfor ci
    ng)f eedba c
    k･ Thelarge rthe
    qua ntl
    ty,t
    heg r
    eateritsnetincre
    a s
    e ,
    furt
    he raug me ntlngtheq ua ntl
    ya
    t ndlea
    d ingt o
    eve r-
    fas
    tergrowth( Figure412).Thepa radi
    gmc a s
    e sa r
    ec ompo un dintere
    sta ndt he
    growt hofpopulations .Themo remo neyyouha vei nvested,themo reinter
    e styo u
    earn, s
    othegr ea
    teryo urbalanceandt heg re
    aters t
    ill t
    hene xtint er
    estpayme ntwi l
    l
    be. Thelargert
    hepo pulat
    ion,t
    heb iggerthene tbirthr at
    e ,
    a ddingt othepopul ati
    o n
    ande ventuall
    yleadingt ostil
    lmo rebirths,i
    na ne ver-acceleratingSpiral
    .Pur ee x-
    Pone nti
    algrowthha stherema r
    ka bl
    epr opertyt hatt hedoubl ingt mei
    i sc onstant:
    thes tat
    eoft hesys tem doublesinaf i
    xe dpe riodoft ime ,noma t
    terhowl arge.

    FJ
    GURE4-
    1 Commonmodesofbeh
    avi
    ori
    ndyn
    ami
    csy
    stems
    Exponent
    ial
    Growt
    h

    Over
    shootandCoH
    aps
    e

    ノ ′ ＼
    Ti
    me-
    Ch
    apt
    er4 S
    tr
    uct
    ur
    ean
    dBe
    hav
    iorofDy
    nami
    cSy
    st
    ems 1
    09

    Ittakest hes amel engthoft imet ogr owf rom oneuni ttot woa si tdoest og row
    fromonemi lliont otwomi ll
    ion. Thi sprope rtyl Sadi rectcons eque nceofpos i
    tive
    feedba ck:t hene tincreaser at
    ede pe ndsont hes izeoft hes tateoft hes ystem( See
    cha pte
    r8) .Pos itivef e
    edba ckne ednota lwa ysge ne ra t
    egr owt h.I tc anals oc reate
    self-r
    einfor clngde cli
    ne, aswhe nadr opl nS tockpr l
    C eSe rode sinve s t
    orc onfidenc e
    whi chle adst omor esell
    ing, l
    owe rpr lCeS,a nds til
    ll owe rconf idenc e.
    Wha ta boutl ine a
    rgr owth?Li ne arg r
    owt hi sac t
    ua llyqul ter are. Lineargr owt h
    requirestha ttherebenof eedba c
    kf r
    omt hes tat
    eoft hes ystemt ot hene tinc rease
    rate,be caus et hene tinc r
    easer ema insc ons ta
    nte ve na sthes tat
    eoft hes ystem
    cha nges.Wha ta ppearst obel ine a
    rg r
    owt hi sof tena ct
    ua l
    lye xpone ntial,but
    viewe dove rat imeho rizontoos ho rttoo bs ervet hea cce l
    eration.
    Figur e4- 3s howss omee xampl esofe xpo ne nti
    a lgr owth. Gr owt hisne verpe r-
    fectlysmoot h( d uet ovar i
    ati
    onsi nt hef r
    a ctiona lgr owt hr ates,c ycle s
    ,a ndpe r
    ut r -

    bations),buti nea chc aseexpone nt i


    a lgrowt hi sthedomi na ntmodeofbe havio r
    .
    Tho ught hedou blingtimesva r
    ywi dely(fr oma bout40ye a
    r sfo rwor l
    dpopul at
    ion
    toa bout2yea rsf ors emiconduc torpe r
    fo ma nc e),t hes esys temsa l
    le xhibitthe
    samee normo usa ccele
    rationc ausedbypos itivef eedba c k.

    Pr nt
    ocessPoi :WhenaRat
    elsNotaRat
    e
    I
    ndynamicmode
    ling,t
    heter
    m" r
    ate
    "gener
    ll
    a yrefe
    rstotheabsol
    uterat
    eof
    c
    hangei
    naqua
    ntl
    ty･Thepo
    pulat
    iongrowt
    hexampl
    eaboves
    tat
    es,H
    thelar
    gerthe

    GURE4
    FI -
    2
    Exponen t
    ialgr owt h: Str
    u ctur eandbeh avior
    Thecausall oo pdi agr am i nt hebo tt
    omhal f
    oft hef i
    gur eshowst hef eedbacks tructure
    thatgener atesexponen tial growt h. Ar ro
    ws
    indicatet hedi rec t
    ionofc aus al influen ces.
    Her e,St ateoft heSy st
    emde ter mi nesNet
    lncreas eRat e( the一 owerar row) ,andNet
    lncreas eRat eaddst oSt ateoft heSy st
    em
    (theupperar row) .Si gn sa tar rowhea ds
    (+ or-)i ndi catet hep olar i
    tyoft he
    relationship, Aposi t
    iv epol ar i
    ty ,indi cated
    by+,meansani ncr easei nt he
    indepen dentvar i
    abl ec au s est he
    dependen tvar i
    abl et oris eabovewha tit
    woul dh avebeen( andadecr eas ec au s
    es
    adecr eas e).Negat ivesi gns( seeFi gure
    4-4)me anani ncreas e(decr eas e)i n
    thei ndep enden tvar iablec aus est he I-
    -
    i=
    ;=- I -
    =:
    --
    --
    ==: -
    dependen tvar i
    abl et odecr eas e( i
    ncr ease)
    beyondwhati twoul dhavebeen.L oop
    i
    den t
    ifi
    ersshowt hepol ar i
    tyoft hel oop,
    eitherpos i
    ti
    ve( self-r
    ei nf
    or cing, denot ed
    byR)orn egat ive( bal anci ng, denot ed
    byB; s
    eeFi gure4- 4) .Chap ter5
    discu ssescau s aHoopdi agr amsi ndep t
    h.
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    110
    Ch
    apt
    er4 S
    tmc
    tur
    ean
    dBe
    hav
    ioro
    fDy
    nami
    cSy
    ste
    ms i
    ll

    popul at
    ion, theg r
    ea t
    ert hebi rt
    hr at
    e."Thet erm" bir
    thr ate"he rer ef erstot henum-
    be rofpe oplebo m pe rtimepe riod. Fore xampl e,thebi rt
    hr atei nac ltyOfo nemi L
    lionpe oplemi ghtbe20, 000pe oplepe ryea r.Of t
    en,howe ve r,thet e rm" rate"i s
    us eda ss hortha ndf orthefr ac tionalr ateofc hangeofava riable. Fore xa mpl e, the
    birthr ateisof teni nterpr eteda sthenumbe rofbi r t
    hspe rye arpe rtho us andpe opl e
    (alsoknowna st hec rudebi rthr ate).Thec rudebi r
    thra t
    ei nt hec i
    y ofonemi
    t llion
    woul dbe20bi r t
    hspe rye arpe rt hous andpe ople,or29 uye ar.Si mi larly,wec om-
    monl ys pe ako ft hei nt erestr at eort heune mployme ntr ate.Thewo rdH ra te"i n
    thesec asesa ctua l
    lyme a ns｡ rat
    io": thei nt erestrateist her atiooft hei nteres tpa y一
    me nt syoumus tma kee a chpe riodt ot hepr lnC lpaloutstandi ng; theune mpl oyme nt
    ratei sther atioo ft henumbe rofune mpl oye dwo rkerst othel abo rf orc e.
    Youmus tca refull
    ydi stingui shbe twe e na bsolutea ndfra ctiona lr a
    te sofc ha nge
    andbe twe enr a tesofc ha ngea ndr atios .Se le ctvariablena mest ha tmi nimi z et he
    cha nc eforc onfus ion.Bes ur et oc he ckt heuni tsofme a
    s uref oryourr ates.The
    uni t
    sofme a suref orr atesoff lOwa r euni t
    s/timepe r
    iod;t heuni t
    sofme asur ef or
    fractiona lrateso fflowa r euni tspe runl tPe rtimepe r
    iod- 1 /t
    imepe riods. Fo re x-
    ampl e,thei ntere s
    tr at
    eo nyo urc re
    di tca rdi snot ,say,1 2%,but1 2%pe rye ar ;or,
    equi valently,1%permont h( 0･12 /
    ye arorO･ Ol /
    mont h) IThee conomydoe sn' tgr ow
    at,sa y,3.5%, buta taf ra ctiona lr at
    eof3. 5%/ ye a
    r ｡

    4.
    1x2 GoaESeeki
    ng
    Posit
    ivefeedbackl oopsge nerat
    egr owth,a mpli
    fy deviat
    ions,andr ei
    nforc
    e
    change.Negati
    veloopss eekbalance,equil
    ibrium,ands t
    asis
    .Ne gat
    ivefee
    dback
    loopsactt
    obringthes t
    ateofthes ys
    temi nlinewi t
    hagoa lordesir
    edstat
    e.They
    counter
    actanydist
    urbancesthatmovet hestateofthesyst
    ema wayfromthegoal.
    Allnegati
    vefeedbackloopsha vethestruct
    ur eshowni nFigure4-4.Thestat
    eof

    GURE4
    FI -
    4
    Goalseeki
    ng:
    st
    ruct
    ureand
    behavi
    or

    + St
    ateofthe Goal
    System (
    Desir
    ed

    c
    r
    e
    St
    ateofSyst
    em)

    sp
    e) D
    i a
    n
    cy
    Co
    rr
    ec
    tive
    A
    ct
    ion
    11
    2 P
    art
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    pec
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    roc
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    thes ys t
    e mi sc ompa re
    dt ot hegoa l .Ifthe reisad isc r
    epa ncybe t
    we ent hede s
    ired
    anda ctuals tate,c o汀e Ctivea ctio ni si nit
    iatedt ob ringt hes tat
    eoft hes ystem ba ck
    inl inewi tht heg oal.Whe nyo ua rehung ry ,youe a t
    ,s atis
    fyingyo u rhunge r;whe n
    tire d,yo us leep,r est
    orlngyoure ne rgya nda l
    ertne ss･Whe naf irm' sinve ntory
    d ropsbe l
    owt hes tockr equi re dt opr ovidegoods e rvicea nds elec t
    i on,produc tion
    inc re asesu ntilinve ntoryl SOnc ea ga l
    nS ufficient.
    Eve ryne ga ti
    vel o opl nC lude sapr ocesst oc ompa rethed es i
    reda nda c
    tua lco
    -n
    di t
    i onsa ndt akec orrectivea ction.So me time sthede s
    ireds tateoft hes ystema nd
    co rre ct
    ivea ctiona reex plicita ndunde rthec ontro lofade cisio nma ke r(e.g.,the
    d esiredl eve lo finv entory) .So me ti
    me sthegoa lisimpl icitandno tu nde rc onscious
    co nt rol,Orund ert hec ontr olo fhuma na genc ya tall.Thea mo un to fs l
    ee pyo une ed
    tof eelwe l
    lr estedi saphys io log ica lfactorno tund e ryo urco nscio usc ontrol ･
    The
    eq ui li
    briu ms urfac etempe ra tur eo ft hee a rthde pendso nt hefluxofs olarene rgy
    andt hec onc entra t
    iono fg ree nho usega sesi nthea t
    mo sphere, amo ngot herphys i
    -
    ca lpa ra me ters. Andac upofc ofe ec oolsvi ane gativef eedba ckunt ilitr eaches
    roo mt empe rature ･
    Inmos tc ases ,t
    her a tea twhi cht hes tateoft hes ystema ppr oa che sitsgoa ldi-
    mi ni she sast hed iscrepa nc yf alls.Wedonotof t
    e no bs er
    veac ons tantr at
    eofa p-
    pr oa cht hats ud denlys topsJ us ta St hegoa ll sre ached･ Theg radua la pproa cha ri
    ses
    be c ausel arg ega psbe twe ende sire da nda ctuals tatest endt oge ne ratelarger e-
    spons es,whi les ma l
    lga pst e ndt oe li
    c i
    ts ma llrespo ns es･Thef lo w ofhe atfrom
    you rc ofe ec u pt othea i
    ri nt her oo mi sla rgerwhe nthet empe ratu rega pbe twe en
    the mi slargea ndd i
    mi nishe sa st hega pf alls.Whe nc of f
    eea ndr oo mt empe ra t
    ures
    aree qua l,ther eisnone the a tf
    lowbe twee nthe m.
    Whe nther elati
    ons hipbe twe e nt hes i
    z eo fthega pa ndt hec or rectivea ctionis
    line ar,ther ateo fa djustme nti se xa c t
    lypr o portionalt othes izeo fthega pa ndthe
    res ulti
    ngg oal- Seek i
    ngbe ha vi ori se xpone ntialde cay･ Asthega pf alls,sotoodo es
    t
    hea djustme n trate .Andj usta se xpo ne nti
    a lgro wthi sc haracteri
    z edbyi tsdou bling
    time ,puree xp? nenti
    a ldec a
    yi sc ha r
    a cteri
    z edbyi tshal flf
    l e-t het i
    mei ttake sfor
    halfther ema lnlngga pt Obee l
    imi nate d(Se ec hapte r8 )･
    Figu re4- 5s howse xampl esofgoa l
    -see kingbe havi or.
    Th et opl eftpanels ho ws
    ther ateo fde fectge nerationi nt hewa ferf abrica t
    io npr oces sofama j
    o rS emi-
    cond uctorma nuf act
    ur er
    .I n1 98 7,t hec ompa nybe ga napr oc essimpr ov eme nt
    prog r
    amus ingpr i
    nciplesofTot alQua lit
    yMa na ge me nt･Thegoa loft hepr ogr a
    m
    wa sz erod e fects.In4ye arsthede fectr at
    ede c l
    ine df rom 150 0ppm t oa bo ut1 50
    ppm.No tetha ta sthed efectratef ell,ther at
    eofi mpr oveme ntde cl
    ine d.Thet op
    ig
    r htpa nels ho wst hea veragel oadf ac t
    o r(u ptime )fo rtwoFi nni shnuc l
    earpowe r
    plantss tartedu pi n19 78.Thef rac t
    ionoft heye art hepl antso pe r
    a t
    e dincr eased
    rapidlya tfirst,thenmo res l
    owl y,unt i
    lama ximumo fa bout94%wa sre ac
    he d. The
    bottoml eftpa ne lshowst hes ha reofa lladve r
    tisingdo l
    lar
    ss pe ntont e l
    evisioni n
    theUS. Gr owt hwa sr apidint he1 950S ,butr e ache daf ai
    rlys teadyl evelo fa bout
    20-25%by1 98 0. Thebot tomr ight pa nels howst her o ughlyexpone ntialde cli
    nei n
    automo bi l
    e -relatedfatalit
    iesi ntheUSpe r1 00mi llionv ehiclemi lesdr i
    ve n. De-
    spitethes u bstantialde cl
    inei nde athr iskpe rmi le,then umbe ro fmi lesd ri
    ve nha s
    growne xpo ne ntiall
    y,S othet otalnumbe rki ll
    edo nther oadse ac hye arha sf
    luc t
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    tems .Li kegoa l


    -seekingbe ha vior,os cillati
    onsa r
    ec ause dbyne gativef eedba ck
    loo ps.Thes tat
    eo ft hesys te
    mi sc ompa redtoi t
    sg oa l,andc o r
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    then eg ati
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    thes tateoft hesystemr eache sitsg oal, forci
    ngt hes yste mt oa d
    justtoomuc h, and
    tri
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    ctionint heo ppos i
    ted i
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    Os c
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    lations ,l
    imi tcy-
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    ction4. 3. 3).Eac hva riantisca use dbyapa rti
    cul arfeedba ck
    structurea nds e
    tofpa r
    a me tersde te
    r mi nl
    ngt hes tre ngthsoft hel oo psa ndt he
    leng t
    hso ft hedelays .Bute ve ryty peofos c
    ill
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    ivef eed-
    bac klo opwi thde l
    a ys.
    Oscill
    a ti
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    sei ft
    he rei sas ig ni
    ficantd el
    a yl na nyPa rtO ft hene ga t
    ive
    loop. Ass ho wni nFi gure4- 6, therema ybede l
    aysi na nyo ft heinfo-a t
    ionl inks
    ma kingu pt heloo p.The rema ybede la ysinpe r
    ceivl ngt hes tateo ft hes ys t
    em
    caus edbyt heme as ureme nta ndr e portlngS ystem. The rema ybed el
    a ysini niti
    a t
    -
    1
    ngc or r
    ectivea ct
    ionsa f
    tert hedi s crepa ncylSPe rceive dd uet othet imer eq uired

    FIGURE4 -6
    0s c
    iHati
    on:
    st
    ructureand
    behavior
    Delaysc anexis t
    inanyoHhe
    causaHJ
    -nk sina
    negati
    vef eedb ack
    l
    oop. Osc i
    Hati
    on
    canoc c
    uri fthere
    aredelaysi nat
    J
    eastoneo f Measurement,
    the一
    inksi na Reporti
    ng,and
    Percepti
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    negati
    vel oop. Delays

    阜
    互cr
    + St
    ateott
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    Ac
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    ateotSystem)
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    Cor
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    5

    tor ea chade ci si
    on. Andt he rema ybedel aysbe twe ent hei nitia t
    ionofacor rective
    ac tiona ndi tse ffec tont hes tateoft hes yste m. Itt akest i mef oracompa nyt omea-
    sur ea ndr epor ti nve nt oryl eve ls,timef orma na ge me ntt omee tanddec i dehow
    muc ht opr oduc e,a ndmor et imewhi ler a wma terialspr oc ur eme nt,thel aborf or ce,
    andot he rnee de dr esour cesr espondt ot henewpr oduc tions chedul e.Suf f i
    ci ently
    longdel aysa ta nyoneoft hes epol ntSCOul dca us ei nve nt or yt oos cillat
    e.
    Fi gur e4- 3s howe dr ea lGDPi nt heUS. Thedomi na ntmodeofbe ha vi ori nt he
    da tai se xpone ntia lgr owt h. Butt hegr owt hi snots moot h Out putfluc tua tesa round
    thegr owt ht rend.Ⅰ nt het oppa nelofFi gur e4- 7t hes eos cilla tionsa rer evea le dby
    de trendi ngt heGDPda ta( removi ngt hebes tf i
    te xpone nt ia lf unc ti
    on) .Af te rt hee x-
    pone ntia lgr owt hi sre moved,t hebus ines sc yclei scl ea r l
    yvi sibleasaf luct ua tion
    ave r aglnga bout5% i na mpl itudea ndwi tha na ve ragepe r iodofa bout4yea rs. A
    longe ra ndl a r
    ge rfluc tua t
    i oni nr ealpr oduc tioni sa l s
    oa ppa re nt, Withpe a ksr elative
    tot re nda round1 91 0a nd1 970- t hes o-c all
    ede conomi cl ongwa ve･ lThebot tom
    pa ne lsofFi gur e4- 7s howt woc riti
    ca lbus ines sc yc leindi ca tor s- ca pac i
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    ypi
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    yf luc tua tes1 5poi ntsf r
    om pea kt ot rough( nea rly20% ofi tsa ve rage
    va lue ),whi l
    eune mpl oyme ntdur i
    ngt hepos twa rpe ri
    odi nt heUShasr ange df rom
    unde r3% t one arlyIl 啄 oft hel aborf or ce,wi t
    hmuc hhi ghe rva l
    uesi nEur ope.
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    ly
    regul a r.Yous houl dnote xpe c tittobe. Ma nype opl et hi nkac yc l
    emus tbeaspr e-
    di ctabl east heda wn,asr egul a rast heor bitsoft hepl a ne ts ,a ss moot ha nds ym 一

    met ri
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    spec i
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    anot he r･2Ap endul um c loc khasbee nca re fullydes igne dt oge nera t
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    endoge nousdyna mi csa ndt hes ee xogenouss hoc ks( Sees e c tion4･ 3･2) ･

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    Thec onnecti
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    izati
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    AnytlmeyouO bservee xponenti
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    ivefeedbac kinwhi c
    htheva r
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    iveloo ps
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    ialgrowt h,thenyou
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    oc c ur s).Yo uc ant heng uidet hed iscus siona mongt hec li


    e ntg ro upt owa rdt hei de n-

    tifica tiono fs elf-


    re i
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    -

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    bl e･ Os cillation, fore xampl e, mus tme a nt herei sa ni mpor -

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    c antt imed e lays .Yo uc ant he na s ka bo utt hede -
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    sio npr oc ess ,a ndi nt her espons e
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    re ctivea ctionsoft hede cisionma kers .
    Ac ave at:Th ishe uristiche lpsi nt hei de ntifi
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    ion, i
    ti se ssent ialt oc ons ide rwha t
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    eme volve st he sel ate ntf ee d
    -

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    m s
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    ativel oo psmi ghts to pt heg rowt h?Mos tpe opl ec ane asilyge ne rateawi der a nge
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    ro ng est,wha tlimi tstog rowt hthe y
    rele
    f ct, andwh ethe rt hos el i
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    achcase.Whatcounter
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    ndd elays.
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    4.
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    NTERACTr
    ONSOFTHEFUNDAMENTALMoDES
    Thethreebasi
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    4E
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    FIG URE 4-
    8
    S-s ha p edgrowt
    h:
    stru ctur eand
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    Ne
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    19

    envi ronme nta n dt her esour cer equi r eme nt sOft hepopul a tion･Asapopul a tion
    appr oa che si tsc arryl ngCa pa Clt
    y,r es our ce spe rC apitadi mi nisht he re byr e duc ing
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    bei nte rpre teda sapopul ati
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    capa cltyOft hee nvi ronme nti sa ppr oa c he d, thea de qua c yoft her e qui re dr e sour ces
    dii ni
    m she s,a ndt hef rac ti
    ona l ne tinc rea ser atemus tde cline. Thes tateoft hes ys-
    temc ont inue st og r ow,buta tas lowe rr a te, unt ilr esour cesa reJ us tS Ca rCee nough
    toha ltgr owt h. Inge ne ra l
    ,apopul ationma yde pe ndonma nyr esour c es ,e a chc re-
    atlngane ga tivel oo pwhi chmi ghtl iml tgr OWt h･ Thec ons tr aintt ha ti smos tbind-
    ingde termi neswhi c hoft hene ga tivel oopswi llbemos ti nf
    lue ntia la st hes tateof
    thes ys temg rows .
    Thec a rryi ngc a pa ciyc
    t onc epti ss ubtl ea ndc ompl ex. Whi lei tisa ppr opr i
    atet o
    cons ide rthec arrylngC apa CltyOfa ne nvi ronme ntt obec ons t anti ns omes itua ti
    ons ,
    inge ne r alt hec arryl ngC apa CltyOfa ne nvi ronme nti sint ima telyi nt er twi ne dwi th
    thee vol ut iona n ddyna i csoft
    m hes pe c i
    esi ts uppo rts .
    Wehuma nsa lt e rthec arry-
    1ngC apa CltyOft hepl a ne tinwa ysbot hi nt e nde da nduni nte nde d,t hr ought hede -
    ve l
    opme ntoft echnol ogye na bl i
    nggr ea terut iliza tionofr e sour ces ,thr oughc ha nges
    inc ul tura lpr ac t
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    throughc ons umpt lOn,de ple t
    ion,a nde ros ionoft heva rio usr es our ce suponwhi ch
    wede pe nd. Eve ns o- C alledl owe rs pe ciesi ntera ctwi tht he ire nvi ronme ntt oa lter
    thec a rryingC apa city. Thec o- evol ut i
    onoff lOwe r sa ndpol lina tingI ns ectsPe rmi t
    -
    tedg r eate rpopul ationde ns itiesf orbot h.Si mi larly,a llbus ine sse sa ndor gani za-
    tionsgr ow i nt hec ont extofama rke t,s oc iety,a ndphys ic ale nvi ronme nttha t
    impos esl imi tst ot he irgr owt h. Aswi thna tura lpopul ations ,t hes el imi tsca ni n-
    creas eorde c reas e,bot he xoge nous lya nd, mor ei mpor tant ly, e ndoge nous ly,a st he
    orga niz ationi nte rac tswi thi tsc us tome rs,c ompe ti
    tor s,S uppl iers ,r egul at or s
    ,a nd
    othere ntitie si nthes yst em. I
    nge ne ral,Onemus tmode ltheva riousr es our c est hat
    togethe rde te ri net
    m hec arrylngC a Pa C lt
    y-f oras pe c i
    eso ra nor ga niz ation- a sa n
    endoge no use leme ntoft hes ys t
    em.
    Des pi tet hedyna mi cc ha rac t
    e roft hec arryl ngCa pa C lty,t he rei s,a ta nymo-
    me nt,al imi tt ot hes izeoft hepopul ation( thec ur rentc arryi ngc apa city) ,wh i
    ch, i
    f
    exc eede d, c aus est hepopul ationt of all .Fur the r, thec arrylngC aPa CltyI tselfc annot
    growf or eve r. Thel awsoft hem odyna
    r i csdi
    m cta t
    ea na bs ol ut elimi ttot hec arrying
    capa cltyO ft hee arth, thought he rei snoa gr ee me nta mongs c hol arsa st owha ttha t
    leveli s,howi tisc ha ngi ng,Whe the rpo pul a ti
    ons houl dg r owt ot heca rryl ngCa -
    pac l
    tyOrbevol unt arilys t
    a bilizedbe lowi t,O rwhe t
    he rapopul ationa sl argea sthe
    carrylngC aPa C l
    tywoul de na blear ea sona bl equa lityofl ifeorpr ovi deonl yt heba re
    mi nimumf o rs ubs iste nc e.3
    As ys te m ge ne ra tesSI Sha pe dgr owt honl yi ft woc ritica lc ondi tionsa reme t
    .
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    a ys( ifthe ydi d,
    t
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    3
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    ce:S
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    citymustbef i
    xed.Itcannotbeconsumedbyt he
    growthofthepopulati
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    ionexhaustitsres
    ourcesandfor
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    -
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    21

    Ake ya s
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    a ti
    ngS- Sha pe dgr owt hi stha tthei nteract
    ion
    ofthepos it
    ivea ndne ga t
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    rst,whe nthes ta
    t eoft he
    syst
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    vet ot her esour ceba se,thel i
    I血t stogr owt ha redi stanta ndt he
    posit
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    t luni ta dde dt othes tateoft hes yst
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    tr
    ibutesmor et othene tinc reaser atet ha nitde cre asest hef ractiona lne tinc r
    ea se
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    y.
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    basefa lls.Ast helimi tstogr owt ha rea ppr oac he d,thene ga t
    ivel oopsgr ows tr
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    andstr onge r, untilt heybe gi nt odomi na tethedyna mi csIThei nf
    le ctionpoi ntinthe
    curvei st hepol ntWhe rethes yste
    m,t houghs tillgr owing,S hiftsfroma ccelerat
    ion
    todec e leration.Thei nflectionma r kst hepol nta tWhi cht her ei sas hiftinl oop
    domina nc e.Iti sthepol nta tWhi c
    ha na ddi t
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    a teoft hes ys-
    temre duc esthef r
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    he rt hegr owt hof
    aplant ,thedi ffusi onofane wpr oduc to rse rvices ucha sc a
    bl et elevision,ort he
    adoptionofane wi de aort echnologyl iket heca r diacpa cema ke r,gr owt ha lwa ys
    confront sl i
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    4
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    vel oops.Ⅵmede l
    aysinthenegat
    iveloopsle a
    dt o
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    hepos si
    bil
    it
    ythatthestateoft hes yste
    mwi llovers
    hootandos c
    illa
    tearoundt he
    carryi
    ngcapaci
    ty(Figure4- 10).Fi gure411lshowss omeexampl esofSISha ped
    growthwithover
    shoota ndos ci
    lla
    tion.

    FIGURE4- 10
    S-Shapedgr owt
    h
    withovershoot
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    st
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    GURE4
    FI 1
    11 Popul
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    8
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    2
    1850 1900 1950 2000

    US Al
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    1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000


    Source.
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    l
    den輔yi
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    ofcommodi ti
    essuchasal uminum?I dent
    ifyt henegat
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    4

    4InUr banDynami c
    s ,Forr
    est
    er(1969)pr
    esentsamodelofur
    bangr
    o wt
    handst
    agnat
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    i
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    ne walpoli
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    sa ct
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    llyac c
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    ndSc
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    975)ext
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    sul
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    Alf
    eldandGr aham( 1976)buil
    du pasimpli
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    heUrbanDynami
    csmo d
    elsuit
    ablefo
    r
    t
    eachi
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    Ch
    apt
    er4 S
    tr
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    ur
    ean
    dBe
    hav
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    ofDy
    nami
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    st
    ems 123

    4
    .2.
    3 0V
    ers
    hoo
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    dCoH
    aps
    e
    Thes e condc ri
    tica
    la s
    sumpt 10nund e rl
    yingSI Shapedg rowt hi st hatt hec arr
    ylng
    capacltyi sf ixed･Of t
    en,howe ver,thea bilityoft hee nvi ronme ntt os up porta
    growlngpo pul ati
    onise r
    ode do rc ons ume dbyt hepopul ationi tself･Fo re xampl e
    ,
    thepopul ationofde erinaf o restc a ng rows ol a
    rget ha tt he yove rbro ws ethe
    vegetation, lea d
    ingtos t
    arvatio
    na ndap reclpltO uSde clinei nt hepo pula ti
    o n.Figure
    4-12S ho wst hef ee
    dbacks t
    ructu rea ndt ypica lbe havio rfT
    ort heove rshoo ta ndc ol
    -
    lapsebe ha vio rmod e.
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    secondne ga tivef e
    edbackl imltlngg rowth. Po pulat
    iongr owt hnowc utsr esource
    adequa cyt wowa ys:byr educingt her esource sa vail
    a blepe rc apl t
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    ampl ethepos it
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    nentiall
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    reachesi tsma x
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    FIGURE4 -12
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    124
    Ch
    apt
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    ste
    ms 125

    ins uf fi
    c i
    e nta ndt hepopul ationke epsf alling.Ift he rei snor ege ne rationoft hec a
    - r
    ryi ngc apa city( i fiti ss tr ictlynonr ene wa ble),t hee qui libr i
    um oft hes ys temi se x-
    tinc tion:a nyno nz er opopul ationc ont inue st oc ons umet her es our ceba s
    e,f orci ng
    itt oz ero, andwi thi t,thepo pul ation. ift hec arr ylngC apa CltyCa nber e
    ge ne ra t
    e dor
    suppl eme nte dwi thr ene wa bl er es our ce s,anonz e roe qui libr ium c anbes us taine d･
    Fi gur e4- 13s howss o mee xa mpl esofove r shoota ndc olla ps e･ TheNe wEng-
    la ndHa ddoc kf is he ryc olla ps edd uet oove r
    fishi ngofGe or gesBa nk,onc eoneof
    thewor ld' Sr
    ic he stf ishinga re as .Ove rfishingha sa l sos hutdownt heCa na dia na nd
    USc odf i she ry,a nds imi l
    a rove rexpl oi taioni
    t sc ommoni nf ishe riesa ro undt he
    wo rld･5Nuc l
    ea rpowe rc ons truc tiongr oundt oaha lti nt he1 98 0sa shi gh- leve l
    wa ste-a ndpubl icc o nc ernove rs afety-a ccumul ateda nda st hec ostsofnuc lea r
    powe rs t
    e adi lye s ca lated. TheAt ariCo rpora ti
    onwa st hel ea deroft hef irstwa veof
    homea nda rca devi de oga me si nt hel ate1 970S . Sa l esdoubl edr oug hl
    ye ve ryye ar
    rom 1
    f 976t hro ugh1 98 2. Abr upts atur atio noft hema rke t
    -de ple tionoft hes toc k
    ofpot entilc
    a us to me rs-l e dt oapr ecipitousdr opi ns ale sf rom $2bi l
    lionpe ryea r
    in1 982t o$1 00mi llionpe rye a rin1 98 4,Thec ompa nyl os ta bo ut$600mi lli on
    dur i
    ngt hec ollaps e.Si lve re xpe rienc edac l
    a s sics pe c ul ativebubbl ei nt hel a te
    1 970S ,Wi thpr ic esr l Sl
    ngt e nf oldi naye ar,thenc ol laps inge ve nmo r ePre CIPltOuS ly.
    Thei nt erpl aybe twe enpo pul a ti
    ona ndca rr yi ngC a pa c ityl e adi ngt oove rshoot
    andc ollaps ei si llus trate di nFi gur e4- 14,whi chs howst hepopul ati
    onofEa ste r
    lsla nd( Ra paNuii nt hel oc a lla ngua ge )a ndamea sur eoft heca r ryingca pa cityde -
    rive d丘. ompol lenc or esi ndi ca t
    lngt hee xt entoft re ec ove r ･
    Ea s t
    e rI sland,o neoft hemos tr emot es potsone arth, isas ma lli sl
    ando fa bout
    1 60km2l oca t
    e di nt hee a ster nPa cific･ Ea st
    erI s landi smos tfa mo usf ort hegi ant
    stones tatues ,knowna smoa i,tha tdott hei sl
    a nd･Ra di oca rbonda tingput st hea r-
    riva loft hef irsts e ttlers, intre pids ailor sofPol yne s ianor lgl n, ata boutt heye ar400
    andnotl a t
    e rtha n690. Popul ationi se s
    tima tedt oha vegr owns lowl yunt i
    la bout
    1 100,whe ngr owt ha c ce lera teddr ama tic all
    y,pe r ha psdoubl i
    nga boute ve ryc e n-
    tur y,unt ila boutt heye ar1 400.Pol lenc o untsf rom s oi lc or esa ndot he rr e cor ds
    showt ha tpr iort Ot hea l
    Ti va loft hef irsthuma ns , Ea s
    te rI s l
    a ndwa sl ushlyf or est ed
    ands uppor tedadi ve rses etoff auna ,pa r t
    icula rlybi r ds( Ba hna ndFl enle y1 992;
    St ea dma n1 995 ) .Howe ve r ,a st hehuma npopul a tiongr e w,t hef orestswe repr o-
    gr ess i
    ve lyc utt opr ovi dewooda ndf i
    be rf orboa ts ,Str uc tur es, rope s,andt ool s,a s
    we lla stopr ovi def ire wood.ThePol ynes ianr at,whi c ha rrive dwi tht heor lglna l
    se ttl
    e rs,ha s t
    e ne dt hede c li
    nebyki llingbi rdsa nde atingt hes ee dsa ndnut soft he
    na tivepa lm.
    Bya boutt heyea r1 400,de fores tationwasnea rlyc ompl e te. Thel os soft r ee
    cove rdr a ma ti
    c allyr e duc edt hei sland' sca 汀yl ngCa pa Clty･The rei sc lea rs tra ti一
    gr aph ice vide nc et ha ts oile ros ioni nc rea sedwi thdeforest ationa sr a i
    nwa s he d
    awa yt heunpr o tec teds oi l.Wi thoutt reec ove r,wi nd speedsa tg roundl e ve li n-
    crease d,Ca rrylngS tillmor eva lua bles oili ntot hes ea･Thee ros ionwa ss os eve re

    5TheH
    Fis
    hban
    ks"si
    mula
    ti
    on(Mea
    dows,F
    idd
    a聖an,
    ndS
    a h
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    n1993)i sawon
    der
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    ngth
    edynaml
    CSO
    fre
    newab
    leresourc
    essu
    chasf
    is
    her
    ie
    s.
    126 P
    art
    I P
    ers
    pec
    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    FI
    GURE4-
    14
    Popul
    ati
    onofEast
    erl
    sland
    Esti
    mated
    populat
    ionand
    tr
    eec overof
    Easterl
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    T op:Po pulat i
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    es t
    imat esf or 0
    Eas terl slandar e :
    冒
    (;
    8
    ち 5 000
    highl yun c enai n. (1
    Thegr aphshows 0
    E
    L
    thel ikel yr angeof
    popul ationbas ed
    onda tai nBahn
    andFl en】ey( 1992,
    pp. 80,1 78f f)
    .
    400 800 1200 1600 2000
    Bot tom:PoH en
    recor dsf roms oil Tr
    eeCover
    corea tRan°Kau,
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    Eas terl sl
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    inthef rac tionof


    poH enf romt r
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    ands hrubs,
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    ofthei sland
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    ト

    poH enf rom


    gras ses, sedges,
    herb s, andf erns)
    . 590 910950 1400 Year
    Def ores tati
    on
    ±50 ±60±70 ±60
    wases sen tial
    Ey
    compl et eby O Dept
    h 10
    abou t1400. (
    meters)
    Not
    e:Ti
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    Sour ahna
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    ley(1992,
    p.174)
    .

    thatse dime ntwa shed血.om thehighere leva t


    ionse ventual
    lyc overedma nyofthe
    moa i,S othatEur opeanvisit
    orsthoughtt hegi antstatueswe r
    eJ ustheads,whe nin
    factthe ywe r
    ec ompletetorsosaveraglng20f eetinhe i
    ght.De f
    oresta
    tiona l
    soin-
    creasede va porationfrom thesoilandma yha ver educ edrai
    nf a
    ll.ThefT
    e ws t
    reams
    onthei sl
    andd ie
    r dup, f
    urt
    herreducingf oodpr oduc ti
    ona ndthef r
    eshwa t
    ersupply.
    Eve ntua l
    ly,fishing,theot herma i
    ns our ceoff ood,a l
    sofell,asboa t
    s,l i
    nes,and
    hooks ,allma def r
    omwood, couldnol onge rber eplaced.Whe nthef i
    rstEuropeans
    arri
    ve d, t
    hei sl
    a nde r
    spr i
    zedwooda bovea llotheritemsof f
    e redintrade. Mostof
    thebir dspe ciesl i
    vlngOnEa st
    erIslandbe c amea tl eastl
    ocallyextinct.Only1of
    about25i ndige nouss peci
    ess t
    il
    lnestsont hei slandt oday(Steadma n1995) .
    Ch
    apt
    er4 S
    tr
    uct
    ur
    ean
    dBe
    hav
    ioro
    fDy
    nami
    cSy
    ste
    ms 127

    Ast hec a
    rryl ngC apacit
    yde c line d,populationgr owt hs l
    owe d,reac
    hi ngapea k
    gene r
    allyes ti
    ma tedt obebe twe en6000a nd1 0,000pe opl ea r
    oundt heye a r1600.
    Apr ec
    lpl t
    OuSde cli
    nei npopul ationha ds etinbya bout1 680,a ccompa niedby
    ma JOrCha nge sins oc ia l
    ,politic
    a l,a ndr el
    igiouss tr
    uc ture s.Spea rpointsa ndot her
    toolsofwa ra ppe are df ort hef irstt ime,a ndt herei se videnc eofl argeba ttles
    amongc ompe tlnggr OupS ･Somes chol ar
    sbe li
    evet herei se vide nceofc anni balism
    duringthi speio
    r d.Thef irs
    tEur o pe ansknownt ovisitEa s t
    erI s
    la ndarri
    ve di n1 722
    andf oundas ma lla ndpoorpopul ation･Sc hola r
    sge ne ra l
    lya cc eptanes tima t
    eof
    2000pe opl ein1 78 6･ AfterPe ruvi ans laver aidsandas ubs eque ntsma llpoxe pl-
    demi cthepo pul ati
    onf ellt
    oIl li n1 877.Thepopul at
    ionr ecove redtoa bout21 00
    byt heea rly1 99 0S ,la r
    ge l
    yt her e sultofi mmi g r
    a t
    iona nds e t
    tleme ntfrom Chi l
    e,
    whic hha sgove rnedt hei slands inc e1 888.
    Theove rsho ota ndc ollapseofEa s
    terl slandi sbutoneofma nys i
    mi lar
    episodesdoc ume ntedi nthehi stor yofi slandbi oge ogr aphy( seeKi rc
    h1 997) .I n
    eachc ase, popul ati
    ongr owt hl e
    dt ode f
    orestat
    ion, t
    hee xt i
    nc ti
    onofna t
    ives pecies,
    andunf a vorabl ec ha ngesi nl ocalc limate,rainfall
    ,a nda griculturalproduc t
    ivi t
    y,
    foll
    owe dbys ta r
    va tion, conf
    li ct
    ,a nd,of t
    en,popul ationc ollapse･6

    4.
    3 0THER M oDESOFBEHAV;
    OR
    Growth,goalseeking,osci
    ll
    ati
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    rc ombinat
    ions:arethesetheonlypa
    レ
    ーe
    mso fbe havi
    orsystemscanexhibit
    ?No, buttheycoverthevastma JO
    rlt
    yOfdy-
    namic
    s ･Thereareotherpat
    ter
    ns,fT
    orexa mple:(1)st
    asis
    ,ore qui
    libr
    ium, i
    nwhich
    t
    hestateofthesyst
    e mr e
    ma i
    nsconstantove rt
    ime;and(2)r a
    ndomva r
    iati
    on.

    4.
    3.1 St
    asi
    s,crEqL
    毒川br
    iL
    汀n
    Cons tanc yarisese itherbe ca
    us edynamicsa fec t
    ingt hes tateofthes yst
    ema reso
    slowt ha tchangei si mpe rce
    ptibleorbeca usethe r
    ea repowe r
    fulnegati
    vefe edback
    process eskee pingt hes ta
    teoft hesyste
    m ne arl
    yc onsta nte veninthef a
    ceofe nvi
    -
    ronme nt aldi
    s t
    urba nc e
    s. I
    nthef om ercase ,changei stoos lowr elaivet
    t oyourt ime
    horizont obeme aningf ul.I
    nthel at
    tercas e,constancyl Sane xampleofhi ghlye f
    -
    fect
    ivegoa l-
    s eekingbe ha vi
    or.Thef i
    m nes
    r sandr el
    iabi li
    tywi thwhichyour e ma i
    n
    incont a ctwi t
    ht heg roundwhe ns t
    andingr ele
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    bri
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    .

    43.
    .2 Randomness
    Manyvari
    ablesa
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    yr a
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    y.I
    nmos ts
    itua
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    s
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    6
    TheEast
    erIs
    la
    nddataabov
    eared
    rawnpri
    mari
    lyf
    romBahnan
    dF l
    enl
    ey(
    1992)ir
    K
    , ch(198
    4),
    a
    ndVanTil
    burg(
    1994)
    .Thesewor
    ks,
    lo
    a n
    gwithK
    irch(1
    997)a
    ndSte
    adman(
    1995),pr
    ovid
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    Cala
    ndhumanhi
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    yofRapaNuiandot
    heris
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    COS
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    1
    28 P
    art
    IPe
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    pec
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    roc
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    whe reEi ns tein' sf amo usl a me ntH Goddo e snotpl aydi cewi tht heuni ve rs e!"
    a ppe arst obewr ong･ Ho we ve r
    ,t her an do mbe ha vioro fe leme ntar ypa rticle sne ar
    thePl a nc ks caleha sl ittlei fa nybe arlngO nt hed y na mi c so fma c roscopl CS ys te ms
    s uc ha sac ompa ny) ･ Whe nwes ayt he r ea re" rando mMva riationsi n,s ay ,thed e-
    ma ndf o raf irm' spr od uc t,wha twea ctua llyme ani st ha twedon' tknowt her ea-
    s onsf o rt he seva riati
    o ns ･Wea rer e vea lingt hel i
    mi ta t
    io nsofo urunde rs
    ta nding, no t
    c ha r
    a cte rizlngaf ea t
    ur eo fr ea l
    ity･ Thed ema ndf oraf irm' spr od uc tma ybeg ro w
    -

    1nga ndma ya lsoe xpe r ienc eas e a s


    o na lc yc le. Thef irmma yunde r
    standa ndc a n
    pe rha pse ve nf ore castt het renda nds eas ona lc yc l
    ewi ths omea c cur acy. Buta fter
    a cc ount ingf ort he ses our ce sofc hange , pe opl etendt oc a l
    lt her es i
    dua lva riation
    ra ndo ma si ft hec us tome rswe res ome ho wr ollingdi c et od e cidewhe the rt obu y
    thepr od uc t.Pe o plege ne ra ll
    yha ver e asonsf o rbe ha vi nga st he ydo, butt hema n-
    a ge r
    so ft hef irma r
    eno ta wa reo fe it
    he rthe ird ecisio nru1 e so rthei nfo r
    ma tiont he y
    us et oma ket he i
    rde c isions .Thema na ge rs'mode lo fc us tome rbe havi ori si m-
    pe rfec t.I ft hef irmc oul d,t hr oug ha dd itiona lmode linga ndf ieldwo rk,d isc ove r
    thos er ul e sa ndt he irI nput s ,theyc oul de x pla i
    nmo reoft het otalva ri
    a tioni nd- e
    ma nd,a nds omeofwha twa sfo rme rlyd ee me dr andom wo uldnowber e sol ve d
    int othe irt he o ryoft hes ys tems truc tur e.
    Asapr acticalma tt
    e r,noonec anne ve rknowa llt hel oc alc o ndi t
    ionsa ndi di o-
    sync rasie sc a us l
    ngaC us tome rt Opl ac ea no rde rtoda yo rwa i
    tunt iltomor r owo r
    c auseama chi net obr eakdownnowi ns tea do f3ho ur sf r
    omnow. Thea gg re ga te
    impa c toft hei ndivi dua lde viationsf roma ve rag ebe havi orme a nss ys temsa re
    ba the di nac ont inuousr a inofr a ndo ms ho cks ｡ Engl ne e rSte rmt he sera ndo mpe r-
    tu rbatio ns" no ise,"a ft erthed is
    to rtionh e ardo nt elep ho nel ine sc a usedbyt he ma
    r l
    luc
    f tuati onso ft hea t omsi nt hewi res .Ofc ou rse,t her ainofr andom s hoc ksi n-
    clude st heoc ca siona ldo wnpo ur,o re ve nfloo d( fore xa mpl e,no tet hei mpa cto f
    W WI Io ne c
    onomi co utputi nt heUS, Fi gu re4- 3).
    Ther aino fr ando mnoi sef allingo nou rs ys temsdo e spl aya ni mpo rta nt ro l
    ei n
    dy na mi c s, howe ve r.Byc ons tantlyk no c kings ys t
    emsa wa yf romt he i
    rc u rrentt ra-
    jec tory,no isec a ne xc itemode so fbe ha viort ha to the rwi sewoul dl iedo rma nt. A
    pe nd ulum s wl ng lngl nt hea irwi l
    lt endt o wa rdse q uilibr i
    uma sf ric t
    iond iss i
    pa t
    e s
    itse ne rgy; eve ntua llyt hebo bo ft hepe nd ulu mc o me st or e st,straig htdown. Ho w-
    eve r,pe rtur bt hebobwi t
    hs ma ll,r ando mj olts,a nds oo nitwi llbe gins wl ngl ng,
    so me wha tirreg ula rl
    y , Wi t
    har hythmc los et oi tsna tur alf reque nc y .Thes truc tureo f
    thes ys temha sthepo tentia ltoos cillate ,bute ne rgy丘. oms omee xtema lso u rces uc h
    ashi g h- fre que nc yr and omnoi sei sr e qu iredt oe xcitei tsl atentd yna mics( c ha pte rs
    1 8120pr ovi dee xa mpl es). Ra nd omno isec ana lsounf re ezes ys temst hata res t
    uc k
    onl oc alo ptima,s end ingt he mi ntoane wne ighbo rho odwhe ret hedyna mi c sa re
    qui ted ife rent ,andc a nde termi newhi cho fma nye qua llya t
    tr activepa t
    hsas ys te m
    take s,c o ntr i
    bu tingt opa t
    hde pend e nc e( se ec ha pter1 0). The sedi sturbanc esc a nbe
    mod e l
    e da sr andomva riationsa ro undt hea ve ragebe ha vi orgl Ve nbyt hee qua ti
    o ns
    ca pturingt hef e edba c ks truc tureo ft hes ys t
    e m･ Othe rt ime si tismo rea ppr o pria te
    tomo de lt hei ndi vidua le leme ntsa nda ctor sint hes ys tem, i
    nwhi chc aseno na ve r-
    agebe ha viora risesf romt hehe terog e ne ltyO ft hepo pul a t
    ionofa ge nt s.
    The s er ole s
    forr ando mpe rtur ba t
    ionswi llbee xpl o redi nl a terc ha pte rs.
    Ch
    apt
    er4 S
    tr
    uct
    l
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    ean
    dBe
    hav
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    29

    4.
    3.
    3 Ch
    aos
    lnrecentyearscha osha sbec omeaubi qult
    OuSbuz zwor di nt hepopul arpressa nd
    ma nagementlite
    ra t
    ur e･Booksa nda rti
    c l
    esbyahos tofne wa gema na gementgu-
    ruswa rncompa nie stoH ma nagea tthee dgeofc haosHorbeove rtake nbymor e
    nimblec ompetit
    o rs.Extrava gantc la
    imsha vebe enma det ha tc haosi sane wa nd
    radica
    llydif
    ferentscience,Onewhi c
    hi sfunda mental
    lynonl ine arandc ompl e
    x, One
    thatcan'tbee xplaine dwithouts omemys terio
    usne wt heor y.Ac tually,thete r
    m
    "chaos"hasana rrowa ndpre cisetechni c
    alme anlngind ynami caltheor y.Unfor t
    u-
    nately
    ,thehungerf o rthelatestf a
    di nthebus inesswo rl
    d, reinfor c
    edbyma r
    keting
    hypea tt
    endingthede ve
    lopme ntofc ha osa ndc omplexl t
    yt he ory,ha sl edtot he
    mi s
    appropri
    a t
    iona nddi lut
    ionoft het erm.Toe xpl a
    inc haosIf irstdes cri
    bes ome
    mo recom ont ypesofos c
    illations.

    DampedOsci
    l
    lat
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    rOnS:LocalSt
    abi
    l
    it
    y
    Onei mpo rtantc ha r
    ac teristicofos cilla
    tionsi sda mpl ng: ifa nos cill
    atorys ys temi s
    pe rtur be do nc ea ndt he nl ef tundi s t
    urbe d,wi llt hefluc tua t
    ionsdi eout ?I fs o, thec y-
    c l
    ei sda mpe d･ Ma nys ys temsa r
    eda mpe dos cillators ･Thec la ssice xampl ei sape n-
    dul um l ikeac hi l
    d'ss wl ng:Gi ve nas lnglepus h,t hea r
    ct r ave rsedbyt hes wlng
    ste a dilydi mi nishesa sf ric tiondi ssi
    pa tesi tse ne rgy,unt i
    li te ve ntua
    ll ycomest o
    re st.I fyouc ouldr educ et hef ri
    c ti
    ona le ne rgyl osse soft hepe ndul um,da mpl ng
    wo ul dbewe ake randi two ul dt akel onge ra ndl onge rf orequi libriumt ober e establ
    lishe da fteras hoc k.I nt he( una tt
    ainable )l imi tofz erof riction,as i
    ngl es hoc k
    woul dc auseape rpetua los cillationa tac ons tanta mpl it
    ude.
    Thee quilibrium oft heda mpe dpe ndul um i ss aidt obel o callys table IPe rtur-
    ba tionswi l
    lc aus ethes ys temt oos cil
    late, buti twi lle ventua llyr eturnt ot hes ame
    equi librium.Theq ua lifie r" loca ll
    y"i si mpor tant .Re als yste msa renonl inear,
    me a nlngt hatt hef eedba c kl oopsa ndpa rame ter sgove n1
    r ngt hedyna mi csva ryde-

    pe ndi ngo nthes tateoft hes ys tem( whe ret hes ystemi so pe ratingi ns tates pa ce-
    thes pac ec rea t
    e dbyt hes ta teva r i
    ablesoft hes ystem) .
    7Loc als tabili
    tyme anst he
    pe rtur ba tionsha vetobes ma llrel at
    ivet ononl ine a r
    itiestha tmi ghtc auseot he rdy一
    ma ni cst oe me rge,a swhe nt hepe ndulum i ss wungs oha rdi tbr e
    a ks.
    Ma nyr e alwor l
    dos cilla torsa reda mpe d,butt heos cillationsne verdi ea wa y
    be c aus et hes ys temsa rec ont inua llybomba rde dwi thnoi se. Ma nymode l
    ss ugge st
    tha tt hes hort-ten bus i
    ne ssc yc l
    e( Figur e4- 7)i sada mpe d, loc al
    lys tableos ci
    lla-
    tion( cha pter1 9)･Theos c illatorys t
    ruc t
    ur ei sas e tofne ga tivef e
    e dba ckl oops
    thr oughwhi chf i
    m sa
    r djus tpr oduc t
    iont oc ont r olthe irinve ntor iesofpr oduc tsand
    rawma te rial
    s .Th esel oo psa reos c i
    llat
    or ybe ca useoft hel agsi nt hea djustme ntof
    pr oduc tiont oc hangesi nde ma nda ndi nve ntor y, particularlyde laysi nhi r i
    nga nd

    7I
    nas i
    mplepend
    ulum, t
    her
    earetwostat
    evari
    abl
    es:t
    hepos
    it
    ionofth epe
    ndul
    u mandit
    smo -

    ment
    um.Thesetwost
    atesdef
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    teo ft
    hesys
    temisdef
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    da t
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    ntinthats
    pacecorr
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    umo fth
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    sOutaCurveinstat
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    exsys
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    s,buthec
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    eptofatrajec
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    acere-
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    130 P
    art
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    ma teri
    alsa cquisition(Fo rrester1 961 ;Ma ss1 9 75).Int hesemod els,bot ht hepe r
    -
    sist
    enc eandi rregul arl
    tyO fthebus inessc yc lea r
    ec aus edbyt hee xc itationoft he
    econo mybyr a ndoms ho cks,jus tast hes impl epend ul umd iscus seda bo v ef
    luc tu-
    atessome wha ti rregularlywhe npe rturbedbynoi se.
    Figure4- 15S howsa ne xa mpl eofda mpe dos ci
    lla t
    ioni nas impl emo delo fa
    fi
    rmba sedont heBe erDi stributionGa me( Sterma n1 98 9b,c ha p.1 7) .Thega me
    representsthes u pplyc haini nat ypicalma nuf acturlngi ndustr
    y･ Thes up plycha in
    hasf ourse ct
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    ailer,who lesaler,dist
    ribut or,andf a ct
    ory. Ea chs tag eisid en-
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    c a
    la ndma na ge dbyad if
    fe rentpe r
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    vet omi ni mi zet he i
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    costsbyc ontrol l
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    orie sa stheys eekt ome etinc o mingde ma nd･ Thes imu-
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    et oao ne-timec ha ngei nc us-
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    ima ted
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    oryo r
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    nwhi chr eturnst hes ys temt oe quilibr i
    um a fter
    about70we eks .He rethene ga ti
    vel oopi st hepr o ces sbywhi c he achs tagei nt he
    supplyc ha i
    nma nage sitsinve ntory:o r
    de ringmo rewhe ni nve ntoriesa reina de-
    quatea ndl esswhe nt heya reh igh.Thede laysa rise丘. omt het i
    mer e quir
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    Expandi
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    Ifa nos cill


    ator ys ystem wi thal oc allyuns tablee qui l
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    onsha vedi ed
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    Figur e4- 16S howsa ne xampl eofal imi tc yc lef rom t heBe e
    rDi stributi on
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    ti
    vea
    ndP
    roc
    ess

    fuc
    l tuat
    ionsintheworlde cono
    myknowna s"l
    ongwa ves"a r
    es el
    f-
    perpe t
    uatl
    ng
    li
    mitcycles(St
    erman1 985;Forre
    ster1983).St
    erman( 1
    98 9a)repor
    tsane x
    peri
    -
    mentinwhi c
    hpe o
    plema nagedasimpleeconomicmodel;thevastma J
    Orltygener -

    at
    edl o
    ngwa vesmuc hli
    kethebehaviorofthemodel･
    Stema n(1989C)Sho wsthat
    manyoft hedecis
    ionruleschar
    acter
    izl
    ngthehuma nsubjectsgenerat
    ec haosand
    vari
    ousformsoflimitcycl
    e.

    Chaot
    l
    '
    cOsci
    l
    lal
    ions
    Cha os ,likeda mpe df l
    uc tua t
    ionsa ndl ii tc
    m yc le s,isaf or m ofos cillat
    ion･How-
    ever, unlikel imitc ycles ,ac hao tics ys t
    e mf luctua te sir reg ular ly,ne vere xac tl
    yr e -
    peatlng, eve nthoug hitsmo ti
    o ni sc ompl etelyd ete rmi nis t
    ic ･Thei r
    r e
    g ulari
    tya rise s
    endoge nous lyandi sno tc r eatedbye x tema l,rando ms ho cks ･Li keal imi tcyc le,the
    patho fac ha ot
    ics ystemi sbo unde dt oac er
    ta inr eglOnO fs tates pa ce･Be caus e
    chaoti csys temsa rebo unde d, cha os,l i
    kel imitc yc les,c a no nlya ris
    ei nno nline ar
    syst
    e ms .Howe ver, unlikel ine ars ystemso rli
    mi tc ycle s,c ha ot icd yna mic sdonot
    haveawe l
    l-defi
    ne dpe rio d, asdo est hes impl epe n dul umd is cus seda bo ve･Themo-
    ti
    ono fac ha ot
    ics ys t
    emne ve rr e pe ats;instead, theo r bitso ft hes ystema pp r
    oa ch
    wha ti sknowna sas t
    rang ea ttr
    a ct or-as etofc los elyr elate dbuts li
    ght l
    yd ifferent
    orbitsr athe rthanas l
    ngl ec los edc urve.Fur t
    he rmor e ,c ha otics ystemsha vet he
    prope rtyknowna ss ens itivede pe nde nc eoni nitia lc o nd iti
    ons ･Twone arbyt ra -
    ject
    or ies,noma tterho wc los e,Wi lldi vergee xpo ne nt iallyunt ilthes t
    ateo fone
    provid esnomo rei nforma tiona bo utt hes tateo ft heo the rt ha na n yr ando mlyc ho-
    sentr ajectory.Se nsiti
    ved epe nde nc eme anstha tthepr ed ictionho rizonf orc hao tic
    syst
    e ms -t heleng tho ftimeo ve rwhi chf o reca
    s tso ff utu rebe ha vio rarea ccu rate-
    isli
    ke lyt obes ho r
    te ve ni fo urmode lo fthes ys tems t
    r uc turea ndpa rame tere sti-
    ma t
    e sa r
    epe rf
    e c
    t.Fur t
    he r,thec ostofi nc rea
    s lngt hepr edic tionho rizonaf i
    xe d
    amo untbyi mpr ovlngO urknowl e dgeoft hec urr ents t ateo ft hes ys temi nc rease s
    expone ntiall
    y.
    Fi gure4- 1
    7S howsc ha oticbe ha viori nas imul ationo ft heBe erDi st
    ribut ion
    Game . Onlyt hepa rme
    a t erso ft hede c i
    sio nrulef o ro rde rsha vebe e na l
    tered',aga in,

    FIGURE4-17 ChaosintheBeerDist
    ribu
    ti
    onGame
    Left
    :Ti
    mes er
    i
    esshowlngfac
    tor
    yorders.i
    ?ight
    :Ph
    asepl
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    etf
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    6
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    83
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    時﹄

    2
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    2
    八
    U

    600 700 800 900 1000 1


    100 -
    50 0 50 100
    weeks F
    act
    or
    yNe
    tnv
    ent
    or
    y
    Ch
    apt
    er4 S
    tr
    uct
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    ean
    dBe
    hav
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    cSy
    st
    ems 1
    33

    thesepa rame ter


    swe ree st
    ima tedf rom t hebe ha vi
    orofa nactua lplayer.Li kethe
    limitcyc l
    e,or dersfluctua t
    ei nde fi
    nitely,int hisc asewi thana mplituder a
    nging
    from 0t oa bout50uni t
    spe rwe eka nda na ver a
    gepe riodofa bout20we e ks.Un-
    1ikethel i
    mi tcycle,theos cil
    l a
    tiondoe snotha vear egulara mpl i
    tude,pe riodici
    ty,
    ors hape,e venthought hee nvironme nti sc ompl e
    telyc onstanta ndthes ys temi s
    co mpletel
    yf reeo frandom s hoc ks ･
    Thet rajectoryOfthes ystemi ns t
    ates pa cefo1-
    1owsawe ll-defi
    ne dpa h,
    t butonewhi c hne verclosesoni tsel
    f･8
    Inallthreeo fthesec ases,dampe dos cillat
    ion,limitcyc l
    e,andc ha os,thef e
    e d-
    ba ckstr
    uc t
    ur eandde cisionr ulesa r
    et hes ame･ Theonl ydifferencesa reint hepa -
    rame t
    ersoft heor deri
    ngr ules ucha st hes i
    zeofdes iredi nventorya ndt he
    aggressivenesswi thwhi chma na gersrea cttothedi scre
    pa ncybe tweende s i
    r edand
    ac t
    ualinvento r
    y.

    4.
    4 SuMMARY
    Thef e edba cks truc tureofas ystem ge ne ratesi tsbe havior .Mos tdyna mi csob-
    seⅣe di nt her ealwor lda r eexa mpl esofas ma l
    ls e tofba sicpa t
    ternsormodesof
    behavi or･Thr eeoft he semode sa
    ref unda me ntal:e xpone ntialgrowt h, goa lseeking,
    andos ci
    llation.Ea c hoft he s
    emodesi sge ne ratedbyapa r
    ticularunde rlyingf eed-
    backs t
    ruc t
    ur e.Expone ntialgr owt hi sge nera t
    edbypos it
    ivef eedba c kpr oc ess
    es ,
    goals eekingl Sge ne ra
    te dbyne ga ti
    vef eedba c k,a ndos cill
    aioni
    t sge nerated
    byne gativef eedba ckwi thde lays.Mo rec ompl e xpa tt
    e r
    nsofbe ha vi ors ucha s
    SIShape dgr owt h,gr owt hwi t
    hove rshoot,a ndove rshoota ndcol laps er esultfrom
    thenonl inea rinterac ti
    ono fthe seba sicfee dba cks tructures.
    Thepr lnCiplet ha tthes tr
    uc tureofas ystem ge neratesitsbe ha vio rle a
    dst oa
    usefulhe uristictohe lpmode l
    e rsdiscove rthef ee dba ckloops tuc
    r tur eofas yste
    m.
    Whe ne ve rapa rt
    ic ula rpa tter
    nofbe havio ri so bs erved,youknow whi choft he
    basicf eedba cks t
    r uc t
    ur esmus tha vebe endomi na ntdur ingt hepe riodc ove redby
    theda ta.Obs ervingt hatava riableofi nt eresthasbe enfluc tuat
    lng,f ore xa mpl e,
    impliest hee xistenc eof( atleast)onene ga ti
    vef eed ba ckloopw iths ignificanttime
    delays,whi c hhe lpst og uidet hes ear
    c hf ort hepa rt
    iculars tr
    uc tur es,de cision
    processes ,andt imede layst hatc ompr lS
    et hene ga tiveloop. Whi let hishe uris
    tici s
    usefula sa na idtot hei nitialc oncept uali
    z ationpr ocess,mode lersmus ta l
    sot ake
    caretos earchf ora ndi ncludei nt hei
    rmode lsthef e edbackl oopsa nds t
    uc
    r turestha t
    havenotbe eni mpo rtanti nge ne ra
    tingthedyna mi cstoda tebutt ha tma ybe come
    acti
    vea sthes ys t
    eme volve s｡

    8
    Moseki
    lde(1996)pro
    vid
    esanex
    cel
    l
    entt
    rea
    tmen
    tofc
    hao
    ti
    candothe
    rnonl
    i
    neard
    ynami
    csin
    teBe
    h e
    rDistr
    ibu
    tionGamea n
    dawidevri
    aetyo
    foth
    erph
    ysi
    cal
    ,t
    ech
    nica
    l,a
    ndbio
    log
    lCls
    a y
    st
    ems.
    St
    ro
    gat
    z(1994)provi
    desanexc
    el
    le
    ntmat
    hemat
    ic
    ali
    nt
    rod
    uct
    i
    ontononl
    ine
    ardy
    namic
    sandcha
    os.
    e蓮
    盲主§
    畠葺互
    ノ軸i
    3iI
    s
    毒嘩T
    3;
    -
    i
    ifi
    S

    Wes
    hapeou
    rbui
    ldi
    ngs
    ;the
    rea
    jte
    f;Ourbui
    ldi
    ngss
    hapeus
    .
    -Wi
    nst
    onChur
    chi
    ll

    Feedba c
    ki so
    neo ft
    hecoreconce
    ptsofs yste
    md ynami cs
    . Yeto urment
    a lmodels
    oft
    enf a
    iltoincl
    udethec r
    iti
    calfeedba c
    ksd eterminingt hedyna micso fo ur
    syst
    ems ･Insyst
    em dynamic
    sweus ese vera
    ldi agramml ngt oolstocaptur
    ethe
    str
    uctureo fs
    yst
    ems,inc
    ludi
    ngc aus
    all oopdi a
    g ra
    msa nds tocka ndf
    lowma ps.
    Thisc hapt
    erfoc
    usesoncausall
    oopd ia
    gr ams,includingg ui
    de li
    nes,pi
    tfal
    ls,a
    nd
    exampl es.

    5.
    1 CAL
    ･SALDI
    AGRAM NoTAT5
    0N
    Causall
    oopdi
    agra
    ms( CLDs )areani
    mport
    antt
    oolf
    orre
    pre
    sent
    ingthef
    Te
    edbac
    k
    st
    ruct
    ureofs
    yste
    ms .Longus e
    di nac
    ade
    micwo r
    k,andi
    ncr
    easl
    nglycommo ni
    n
    busi
    ness
    ,CLDsareexcell
    entfor
    ･ Qui
    ckl
    yca
    ptu
    rlngyo
    urhypot
    hes
    esa
    boutt
    hec
    aus
    eso
    fdyna
    mic
    s;
    ｡ El
    ici
    ti
    nga
    ndc
    apt
    url
    ngt
    heme
    nta
    lmode
    lsofi
    ndi
    vid
    ual
    sort
    eams
    ;
    ･ Communi
    cat
    ingt
    hei
    mpo
    rta
    ntf
    eed
    bac
    ksyo
    ube
    lie
    vea
    rer
    espo
    nsi
    blef
    ora
    pr
    obl
    em.
    Thec onventi
    onsfordra
    wingC aus
    aldiagr
    a msaresimplebutshoul
    dbef ollowed
    fai
    thful
    ly.Thi
    nko fcaus
    aldiagramsasmus icalsc
    ores.Neatne
    sscounts
    ,a ndidi
    o-
    syncrat
    icsymbolsandst
    ylesma keithardforfel
    lowmus ic
    ianstore
    adyo urscor
    e.
    Atf i
    rst
    ,yo umayf i
    nditdi
    fficultt
    oc onst
    ructandinte
    rprett
    hesediag
    rams .With
    pract
    ice,however
    ,youwillsoo nbesig
    ht-readi
    ng.

    137
    138 P
    art
    H T
    わol
    sfo
    rSy
    ste
    msTh
    ink
    ing

    Ac ausaldi agramc ons i


    stsofva riablesc onnectedbya rr
    owsde not lngt he
    causalinf
    lue nc esa mongt heva r
    iables.
    Thei mpo rta
    ntfeedba ckloo psa rea l
    soi den-
    tif
    iedint hedi agram. Figur e5- 1showsa ne xampl eandke yt othenot ati
    on･
    Variablesa rer elatedbycaus all
    ink s
    ,s hownbya r
    rows ･Int hee xa mpl e,the
    birt
    hr ateisde t
    ermi ne dbybot hthepo pulationa ndthef racti
    ona lbirthr at
    e. Ea ch
    causallinki sa ssigne dapol ari
    ty,eit
    he rpos it
    ive( +)o rne gati
    ve( -)t oi ndi ca
    te
    howt hede pe nde ntva ria blec hangeswhe nt hei ndependentvari ablec hange s. The
    importantl oo psa rehi ghl ighte
    dbyal oopi denti
    fierwhi chs howswhe the rthe
    loopisapos i
    tive( reinfor cing)orne gat
    ive( balancing)feedba ck･Not etha tthel oop
    identi
    fiercirculatesint hes amedi rect
    iona sthel ooptowhi chi tcorrespo nds. Inthe
    exampl e,thepos i
    tivef e edba ckr e
    lati
    ngbi rthsa ndpopul aioni
    t sc lockwi sea nds o
    isit
    sloopi dent if
    ier;thene gati
    vede at
    hr ateloopI Scounterclockwi sea l
    ongwi t
    hi t
    s
    identi
    fier.
    Table5- 1s umma r
    iz est hede f
    init
    ionsofl inkpol a
    rit
    y.

    GURE5
    FI -
    1 Exampl
    e
    Caus
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    , ･･
    (
    Bi
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    Fr
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    )(

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    39

    Apos itivel inkme a nst ha tifthec aus ei nc reas es,thee f


    fec tinc reas esabov e
    whati twoul do theJWis ehav ebe e n,a ndi ft hec ausede cre as es
    ,t hee f
    fe ctde -
    cr ease sbe lowwhati twoul dot herwi sehav ebe e n･ I
    nt hee xa mpl einFi gure5- 1a n
    inc reas eint hef racti
    ona lbi rthr ateme a nst hebi rthr at
    e( inpe oplepe rye ar)wi ll
    inc reasea bovewha titwo uldha vebe en, andad ec r
    e aseint hef rac
    tiona lbirthr at
    e
    me anst hebi rthr at
    ewi llf allbe lowwha titwoul dha vebe en･ Tha ti s,ifa ve rage
    fe r
    tili
    tyr i
    s es,t hebi rt
    hr ate,gi ve nt hepo pul ation,wi llrise;i ff e
    r ti
    li
    tyf alls ,the
    n umbe ro fbi rthswi llfall.Whe nthec aus eisar ateo ff
    lo wt ha ta ccumul a t
    esi nt oa
    stoc kt heni ti salsot r
    uet ha tthec aus ea ddst ot hes to ck.Inthee xampl e, bi
    rthsa dd
    tot hepo pul ation( Seec ha pter6f ormo reo ns t
    o cksa ndflows ).
    Ane ga t
    ivel inkme anst ha tifthec aus ei ncr ea ses,thee ffe ctde creas esbe low
    whati twoul dot he r
    wi sehav ebe en,a ndi fthec ausede crease s,thee f f
    ectine re as e
    s
    abov ewhati twoul dot he rwi sehav ebe e n.Int hee xa mpl e,ani nc reasei nthea ve r-
    agel i
    fe ti
    meo fthepopul a t
    ionme anst hede a thr ate( inpe opl epe rye a r)w
    il lf all
    be lowwha ti two uldha vebe e n,a ndade crea sei nt hea vera gel ifeti
    meme a nst he
    de ahr
    t at
    ewi llrisea bovewha titwo ul dha vebe en.Tha tis ,i flifee xpe cta ncy
    inc rease s
    , t
    henu mbe ro fde athswi llf al
    l; andi flifee xpectancyf all
    s ,t
    hede athr at
    e
    wi llrise.
    Linkpol a rit
    iesd escr i
    bet hes truc t
    ur eo fthes ys tem. The ydonotde scr
    ibet he
    be ha vioro fthev a r
    iables .Tha ti s,the yd escribewha two uldha ppenI Ft herewe r
    e
    ac han ge. The ydonotde scribewha tac t
    ua llyha ppe ns.Thef ractionalbi rthr at
    e
    mi g htinc reas e;itmi ghtde cr eas e
    -t hec ausa ld iagr amdoe sn' 日e llyo uwha twi ll
    ha ppe n. Ra t
    he r,
    ittellsyo uwha twoul dha ppe ni ftheva ria
    bl ewe ret oc hange.
    No tet heph ra s
    eabov e( orbe low)whati tot he rwisewoul dhav ebee ni nt he
    de fini
    ti ono fl i
    nkpo larity.Ani ncr easei nac aus eva r
    iabledoe snotne c
    e ssa ril
    y
    me ant hee fe ctwi llactua ll
    yi ncrea se.The r
    ea retwor easons .Fi rs
    t,ava ri
    a bleo f
    -
    tenha smo ret hano neI nput .T bde te rminewha ta ctua ll
    yha ppe nsyo une e dtoknow
    howa llthei n putsa recha ngi ng. I
    nt h epo pul ati
    o ne xampl e,thebi rthra tede pe nds

    E5･
    TABL l Li
    nkpol
    ari
    t
    y:d
    efi
    ni
    ti
    onsan
    dex
    ampl
    es

    x
    a
    m
    一
    +
    Symbo一 l
    nter
    pret
    ati
    on Mat
    hemat
    ics E p一
    es

    一
    1
    fXi
    +
    Allel
    seequ al,i ncr
    eases ∂
    Y/∂X>0
    (
    decreases)
    ,t h
    enYi nc
    reases P
    Q r
    u I
    OadE
    .c
    y
    t - S ales
    Inthecaseof
    + (
    decreases)abov e(
    below)
    x∼ a
    c cumul
    at
    ions
    ,
    y wh atI
    '
    twoul dhavebeen. fo
    Ef r
    t - R su l
    ts
    I
    ･t e

    I
    nthec aseo faccumul
    ati
    ons, +
    Xad dstoY. Y-J
    t｡
    (x+･-) ds+Yto
    Bi
    rt
    hs Popul
    ati
    on
    Allelseequ al,fXi
    i ncr
    eases ×<0
    (
    decreas e
    s),thenYde c
    reases l
    ∂
    nt
    Y/∂
    hec as
    eo f
    pBo
    ,F
    cu
    ec ㌫ sales L-
    (
    incr
    eas es
    )b elo
    w( ab
    ove)
    x∼ Y wh ati
    twoul dhav ebeen. accumulat
    ions,
    Fr
    ustr
    at蒜 づ虹Resur
    i es
    Inthec aseo faccumu l
    ati
    ons, Y - 仁 × + .･･)
    ds+Yt｡
    Xs ubt
    ractsfromY.
    Deaths
    一一二
    由一
    Popul
    ati
    on
    140 P
    ar IT
    tI o
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    o nbo t
    ht he丘. ac tio
    na lbi r
    thr atea ndt hes i
    zeo ft hepo pul ation( t
    ha tis,Bi rthRa te-
    Fr actiona lBi rthRa te* Po pul ation). Yo uc an nots a ywhe t
    he ra ninc r easei nt he
    frac ti
    ona lbi rthr at
    ewi lla ctua ll
    yc auset hebi rthr a t
    et or i
    se; youa lsone edt okno w
    whe the rt hepo pul ationi sr lSlngO rfa l
    ling. Al a rgee no ug hdr oplnt hepo pul ation
    ma yc a us et hebi rthr atet of alle veni ft hef ra ctiona lbi rt
    hr aterises.Whe na sses s
    -
    ingt hepol a rityofi ndi vid ua llinks ,as s
    u mea llot he rva ri
    a blesa rec ons tant(thef a
    -
    mo usa ss umpt io nofc eterispar i
    bus ).Whe na ss essi
    ngt hea ctualbe ha viorofa
    sys tem,a llva riablesi nt era cts imul tane ous ly( a lle lseisnote qua l
    )a ndc o mput er
    simul atio ni sus uallyne e de dt ot raceo u tthebe ha vioro fthes ystema ndde termi ne
    whi c hl o opsa redo mi na nt.
    Se cond,a ndmo rei mpo r tantly,C ausa ll oo pd iagramsdonotdi stingui s
    hbe -
    twe e ns to cksa ndf lows -t hea ccumul ationso fr e sou r
    c esi nas ys t
    e ma ndt her ates
    ofc ha nget ha ta lterthos er eso urce s(S e
    ec ha pter6) ･Int hepo pul at
    ione xampl e, the
    po pul atio ni sas t
    oc k-i ta c cu mul atest hebi r t
    hr atel essthedea thr ate.Ani ncre ase
    int hebi rthr atewi lli nc rea set hepo pul at
    io n, butade crea seint hebi r t
    hr a t
    ed oe s
    no tde cre as et hepo pul a ti
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    ne ve rr ed uc ei t｡Thepos itivel inkbe twe e nbi rthsa ndpopul ationme a nst hatt he
    birthr a tea ddst ot hepo pul ation. Thusa ni nc rea sei nthebi rthr atei nc r
    e asest he
    po pul atio na bovewha tito the rwi sewo uldha vebe ena ndade cr
    e as
    ei nt hebi rth
    ratede cre as espo pul ationbe lowwha tito the rwi sewo uldha vebe en.
    Simi larly, thene ga tivepo l
    a ntyoft hel inkf romt hede athr atetopo pula t
    ioni n-
    dic atest ha tt hed eathr a tes u btrac t
    sf romt hepo pul ation. Adr opl nt hede athr ate
    doe sno ta d dt ot hepo pul atio n.Ad ropi nd e athsme ansf ewe rpe opled iea ndmo re
    rema ina live: thepo pul a t
    ioni shi ghe rthani twoul dot henvi sehav ebe e n.No t
    et hat
    yo uc a nnott ellwhe the rthepo pu lati
    o nwi lla c tua l
    lybei nc reas l
    ngO rd ec reas
    lng:
    Po pul ationwi llbef allinge ve ni ft hebi r
    thr atei srislngi ft hede a t
    hr atee xcee ds
    births ･Tok n owwhe the ras to cki sinc reaslngO rde c reasingyoumuS tkno wi tsne t
    rateo fc ha nge( int hisc a se, birthsl essd e a
    ths ). Itisa lwa yst ue
    r ,howe ve r,ha
    t tift he
    birthr ater ise s, popul a tionwi llr isea bo vewha ti two uldha vebe enint hea bsenc e
    oft hec ha ngei nbi rths ,eve ni fthepo pul ationc o ntinue stof a l
    l.Po pula tionwi llbe
    falli
    nga tas lowe rr atet ha ni tot herwi sewo uld. Cha pters6a nd7di s
    cus sthes t
    ru c-
    turea ndbe ha vio ro fs toc ksand f lo ws ,

    Pr '
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    (se
    e,e.g.
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    ,anal
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    :
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    41

    Thel inkde not edwi tha nsi srea da s" Xa ndYmo vei nthes amedi recti
    on"
    whi l
    et hel inkd eno te dwitha noi sr eada s" Xa ndYmovei nt heo ppo si
    ted irec
    -
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    itya ndSa lest endt omo vei nt hes a
    medi re
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    Produc tPricea ndSa lest
    e ndt omov ei nt heo ppos i
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    Thesa ndonot a t
    ionwa smo ti
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    us a
    ldi a
    g r
    a mse ven
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    ta ndf orpe oplewi thlittlema t
    he ma tica
    lba c kgro und. Whi chno ta
    -
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    e risho tlyde ba te
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    s
    agalnS ttheus eo fsa ndo.Heno testha tt hes t
    ateme n t"Xa ndYmovei nt hes ame
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    a or
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    -
    me nti s,"IfXi nc re ases,Yi ncreasesabov ewhati twoul dhav ebe en."Tha tis,a
    causa ll i
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    zed
    chang e .Theva r
    ia ble sXa ndYma ybepos i
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    s odo n'
    t
    wo rkf o rstocka ndf lowr elati
    o nships .Bi r
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    samedi rection: ade creaseinbi rthsd oe sno tcaus epo pula t
    iont ode c r
    easebe ca
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    ty, ifXi n c
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    la lwa ysbehi g herthan
    itwoul dha veb e en;f orne gativepol arity,ifXi ncre as
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    thani two ul dha vebe enJnt hisboo kIwi lluset he+a nd-s ignst Ode no t
    elink
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    io nwhe n
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    5N
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    5.
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    on
    Eve ryl inki nyo urdi a gram mus tr eprese nt(wha tyo ube l
    ievet obe )Ca usalre-l
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    relationsbe t
    we e
    nva r1
    -
    able s
    . TheLa t
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    oi mita t
    e."As ystem
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    emwe l
    le no ug hthatt he
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    mewa yt her eals ystemwo uld･Be haviori nc lude sno to nly
    replicatinghi s
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    icies
    thatar ee nt i
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    system. Co r
    relat
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    anc es
    cha nge ,ifpr evious lydor ma ntf eedba ckl oopsbe co medomi na nt,ifne wpol icies
    aret r
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    onsa mongva riablesma ybr e akdown･ Yo ur
    mod el
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    ruc t
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    em.Co rr
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    omt hebe ha vioro fthemo delwhe nyo us i
    mul atei t･
    Tho ug hs al
    e sofi c ec reama repos itivelyc orr
    elatedwi tht hemur de rrate,yo u
    ma yno tinc ludeal inkf romi cec reams alestomur deri nyou rmo de ls .
    I nst
    ead, as
    showni nFi gur e5- 2, bothi cec re ams a l
    e sandmur de rriseins umme ra ndf allin
    wint e
    ra st hea veraget e mpe raturefluc tua t
    es.Co nfusingc orrelationwi t
    hc a
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    canl eadt ot er
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    tsideof
    Figure5- 2s ugge ststha tc uttl
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    rate,savel ives,anda llows ocietytoc u ttheb udge tforpo lic
    ea ndpr isons ･
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    42 P
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    relations :Do e svitami nCc ur ethec om-
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    c orrecting;t he yo ppos edi s-
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    y
    Whe nyoude t
    ermi nel ooppol arlty,youa reC alculatlngWha tisknowni nc ontr ol
    theor ya stheslgnOft heope nl oopga i
    noft hel oop. Thet erm" gain"r eferstot he
    str
    e ngthoft hes l
    gna lr et
    ume dbyt hel oop:aga inOft wome ansac hangei nava ri-
    ablei sdo ublede achc yclea roundt hel oop;aga lnOfne gat
    ive0. 5me ansthedi -s
    turba ncepr opagatesa roundt heloopt ooppos eitselfwi thas tr
    engt hha l
    fa slarge.
    Thet em H openl oop"me anst hega l
    ni sca l
    culatedf orJustonef eedba ckcyc leby
    brea king-ope nl
    ng -t heloopa ts omepol nt･Cons ide ranarbit
    raryf eedbac kloop
    cons istl
    ngOfnva ri
    a bles,x l,.I･,Xn .Youc anc alcula t
    etheo penl oopga ina ta ny
    polnt ;le
    txlde notet heva riableyouc hoos e.Whe nyo ubr ea
    kt heloop, Ⅹ1Splitsint o
    ani nput ,XII,andout put,xl O( Figure51 6).Theope nl oopga i
    ni sde finedast he
    (partil)de
    a rivat
    iveofxl Owi thr e
    spe cttoXI I
    , t
    hatis, thefeedbacke ffectofas ma ll
    changei nthev ariablea sitr eturnst oitself.
    Thepol ar i
    tyofthel oopi sthes ignof
    theope nloopg aln:
    Po
    lar
    it
    yofl
    oop-SGN(
    ∂Ⅹ1
    0/∂
    Xii
    ) (
    5-1
    )

    wher
    eSGN()isthesignum ors ignfunc t
    ion,re
    tur
    ning+1i fi
    tsa
    rgumentispos
    i-
    t
    iveand-1iftheargume nti
    sne ga
    tive( i
    ftheopenloopgaini
    sz r
    eo,t
    heSGN
    f
    unct
    ion-0:thereisnol oop)ATheope nl oopgai
    ni sc
    alc
    ulat
    edbythechai
    nrule
    f
    rom t
    hega
    lnSOftheindividuallinks,∂xl
    /∂xl【1
    :
    SGN(
    ∂xl
    O/∂
    x17
    )-sGN[
    (∂xl
    O/∂
    xn)
    (∂X
    n/∂
    xn_1
    )(
    ∂Xn
    _1/
    ∂xn
    _2)･･
    ･(∂
    x2/
    ∂xI
    I
    )] (
    5-2)
    a
    t
    at
    h
    e
    -
    o
    n
    y
    p
    i
    n
    tp
    146 Pa
    r I ¶)
    tI ol
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    ∴-
    I
    もt 了x l
    O
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    GURE5
    Fd -
    6 Br
    eak
    Calc
    ulati
    ngt
    he
    open-
    loopgal
    n
    ofaloop

    x
    Lx
    ,
    )4fe
    e
    f
    r
    °.
    u
    e
    n
    c
    x
    L3) tr
    acet
    :n望change
    the一
    h

    oop
    a

    .
    x 4

    PoJ
    ari
    ty=SGN(
    ∂xl
    O/∂
    xll
    )

    ∂
    xl0/
    ∂xl
    l-(
    ∂Ⅹ1
    0/∂Ⅹ4
    )(∂
    Ⅹ4/
    ∂x3
    )(∂Ⅹ3
    /∂x2
    )(∂x2
    /∂x
    IB)

    Sinc
    ethes
    ignofapr
    oduc
    tist
    hepr
    oduc
    toft
    hes
    lgnS
    ,loo
    ppol
    arl
    tyl
    Sal
    so
    g
    lVe
    nby:
    SGN(
    ∂Ⅹ10
    /∂Ⅹ1
    )-SGN(
    Ⅰ ∂Ⅹ1
    0/
    ∂X)*
    ｡ SGN(
    ∂X｡
    /∂Xn
    ー1)辛SGN(
    ∂x｡
    _1/
    ∂Xn
    _2)
    *･
    ･･*SGN(ax2/axi
    I) (
    513)

    Usi
    ngtherightme thodtodete
    rminel
    ooppo la
    rit
    ybyt ra
    c l
    ngt heefectofa
    s
    ma l
    lchangearoundal oopisequi
    vale
    ntt
    oc a
    lculat
    ingequat
    ion( 5-3)
    .Equati
    on
    (
    5-3)al
    soexpl
    a i
    nswhyt hef
    astmetho
    dwo r
    ks:Sincetheproductoftwonegati
    ve
    s
    lgnSi
    saposit
    ives l
    gn,negat
    iveopenl
    ooppol
    arl
    tyrequlr
    eSanOddn umbe ro
    fn e
    g-
    a
    ti
    velinksi
    nthel oop｡

    Al
    lLi
    nksShou/
    dHav
    eUnambi
    guousPol
    an'
    t
    ies
    So me ti
    me spe opl esayal i
    nkc anbee it
    herpos itiveorne gati
    ve ,dependi ngo no 血er
    pa ra
    me tersoro nwhe ret hes ys temi sope ratl
    ng. Fo rexa mple,pe opleo ft
    end raw
    血edi agramo nt hel ef
    ts ideo fFi gu re5-7r ela
    tlngaf ir
    m' sreve nuetot hepr lCeOf
    itspro d
    uc tandt he na r
    g uet hat thelinkbe tweenpr l
    Cea ndc ompa nyr eve nueca nbe
    eitherpos it
    iveo rne gative ,de pendingo nt hee last
    icit
    yOfde ma nd.I fde ma ndis
    highlye lastic,ahi ghe rpr lCeme ansl essrevenuebe c ausea1 %i ncrea seinpr l
    Ce
    cause sdema ndt ofallmo retha n1 %. Thel inkwoul dha vene gativepol arit
    y.Ifde-
    ma ndi sinela s
    tic, t
    hena1 %i nc reaseinp rl
    CeC a usesdema ndt odr oples sthan1 %,
    sor evenue sr i
    se. Thel inkwo uldbepos iti
    ve .Itappe arsnos inglepol aritycanbe
    asslgned.
    Whe nyouha vetrou blea sslgnlngaC leara nduna mbiguouspol ar
    ityt oalinkit
    usuallyme ansthe reismo retha no nec ausalpa thwa yc onnect
    lngt het wova r
    iables
    .
    Yo us houldma ket he s
    ed ifere ntpa t
    hwa yse xpl ic
    itinyo urd iagram. Int heexa m-
    ple,pr i
    ceha sa tle as
    ttwoe ff
    e ctsonr evenue:( 1 )itdetermineshowmuc hrevenue
    isg e
    ne rat
    e dpe runi tsolda nd( 2)ita f
    fectsthenumbe rofunitss old.Tha tis,Reve-
    nue-Pr ice* Sa les,and( Uni t)Sa lesdepe ndo nPr ic
    e( presuma blyt hede ma nd
    curvei sdownwa rds l
    opi ng:Hi ghe rpricesr educ esa l
    es).Thepr operd ia
    grami s
    Cha
    pte
    r5 Ca
    usa
    lLoo
    pDi
    agr
    ams 147

    GURE 5-
    FI 7 l
    ncor
    rect Cor
    rect
    Cau sa川nk s
    mus th ave
    unambi guous r ･o
    ,( r-
    ) r ･
    polarit
    y. P
    ri
    e
    c R
    ev
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    ev
    en
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    App arentl
    y
    ambi guous ＼ sa.
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    poLarit
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    l
    y
    i
    n di
    c at
    et he
    presen ceof
    multipl
    ec ausal showno nther i
    g hts ideofFi gu re51 7.Th erei sno wnoa mbi gui t
    ya boutt hepol ar
    1
    pathwa ysthat 1tyOfa n
    yo fth elinks .
    shouldbe Thepr icee lastlCltyO fdema ndde termine swhi c hca usal pathwa ydo mi nat
    es ･I
    f
    represented dema ndi squi t
    ei nse ns i
    tivetopr ice(thee l
    asticityo fd ema ndi sl essthano ne),then
    separ at
    e一y. thelowe rpa thi nFi g ure5- 7i swe ak,pr lCer aisesuni tr eve nuemo r
    etha nitde -
    creasess al
    es ,andt hene teffectofa nincrea seinpr i
    cei sani ncr easeinr evenue.
    Co nversely,i fc ustome rsa r
    equi tepr ices ens i
    tive( thee last
    icityofde mandi s
    greaterthano ne) ,thel owerpa thdo minates .Thei ncre asei nr evenuepe runitis
    mo rethano f fsetbyt hede cl
    inei nthen umbe ro fu ni
    tss old,s ot hene tefe ctofa
    priceris
    ei sad ropl nr evenue. Separatlngthepa thwa ysa lsoa l
    lowsyo utos pec i
    fy
    diffe
    rentd elays ,ifa ny ,lne a
    c h. I
    nt hee xampl eabove , therei slike l
    ytobeal o ng
    delaybetwe e nac hang einprlCea ndac hang eins ale s
    ,whi l
    et herei sli
    tt
    leo rnode -
    laylnthee ffe cto fpr iceo nreve nue.
    Separatlngl inkswi t
    ha ppa rent
    lya mbi guo uspo lar
    ityI ntot heunde rl
    y ingmul -
    ti
    plepa thwa ysi saf ruitfulme thodt ode epe nyo urunde rstandingoft hec aus a
    l
    struct
    ure, d
    e lays, andbe havioroft hes ys t
    em.

    Enl
    PioyeeMo的f
    ati
    on
    Yo urc li
    e ntteami swo r
    rieda boute mpl oyeemot iva tiona ndi sde ba t
    ingt hebe s
    t
    wa yst oge ne r
    atema ximume fo rtf romt he i
    rpe opl e･ The yha ved ra wnadi agram
    (Figu r
    e5- 8)anda rea rguinga boutt hepo larit
    yo ft hel in ks･Oneg roupa r
    g uesthat
    theg r
    eatert hepe rforma nces ho rtfall(theg reaterthega pbe twe enRe quiredPe r
    forma ncea ndAc tualPe rfor ma nc e),theg reaterthemo ti
    va tiono fe mpl oye eswi l
    l
    be. The ya rguetha tthes e c
    r eto fmot i
    va t
    ioni stos e ta gg r
    e ssive ,
    e veni mpos si
    ble
    goa ls(soICa l
    leds tr
    etcho bj
    e ctives )toe li
    citma ximummo tivationa nde fo rt
    .The
    othe rgrou pa r
    gue sthatto obi gape rforma ncesho rtfalls impl yc ause sfrustrati
    ona s
    peo pleco ncludethe reisnoc ha nc etoa cco mplishthegoa l
    ,s othel inktoe mpl oyee
    mo tivati
    o ns houl
    dbene gative. Ex pandt hed iagramt or esolvet hea p parentc onli
    f c
    t
    byi nco r
    po rati
    ngbot hthe ories. Di scusswhi chl i
    n ksdo mina teunde rdifferentcr
    i -

    cums t
    anc es.Canyougi ves o mee xampl esf romyou rowne x perienc ewhe rethese
    differentpa thwa yswe redomi nant ?Howc a
    nama na gert e l
    lwhi chpa thwa yl S
    li
    ke lytodo mi nat
    ei na nys it
    ua tion?W h a tarethei mpl ic ationsf orgoa lse t
    tlnglnO r
    -
    gani zati
    ons ?Ac tuala ndr eq uiredpe rforma ncea renote xoge nousbutpa rtoft he
    feed backs tructure.How doe smo t
    ivationf eedba ckt ope rforma nce ,andho w
    mi ghta ct
    ua lperforma ncea ffec tthegoa l?I ndicat
    et he s eloo psi nyo urdi agrama nd
    expl ai
    nt heirimpo rtanc e.
    148 Pa
    rtIT
    I わ
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    em sTh
    ink
    ing

    Actual Requir
    ed
    Per
    for
    mance Per
    for
    mance
    ＼ヽ 〆 /
    / Perf
    ormance
    /

    Shor
    tf
    all

    Employee
    Mot
    ivati
    on

    5.
    2,4 N･
    3meYourLoops
    Whe the ryouus ec aus aldi a gr amst oe licitt heme ntalmode lsofac lientgr oupo rto
    c ommuni ca tet hef ee dba cks truc tureofamode l,youwi llof tenf indyour selftrying
    toke e pt ra ckofmo rel oopst ha nyouc a nha ndl e･ Yourdi agr amsc ane asilyove r-
    whe l
    mt hepe opleyoua ret rylngt Or each. Tbhe lpyoura udi e ncena vlga tethene t-
    wor kofl oops ,it'
    She l
    pf ult ogl Veea chi mpor tantf eedba ckanumbe ra ndana me.
    Numbe ringt hel oo psRl ,R2, B1 ,B2, ands oonhe lpsyoura udie nc ef i
    nde achl oop
    a syoudi sc us si t
    ･Na ml ngt hel oo pshe l
    psyoura udi e
    nc eunde rstandt hef unc ti
    onof
    e achl oo pa ndpr ovi de sus efu ls hor t
    ha ndf ordi scus s i
    on. Thel abe l
    st he ns t
    andi nfわr
    ac ompl e xs e tofc aus all inks ･ Whe nwor ki ngwi thac l
    ie ntg roup,l t'
    sof tenpos si-
    bl et oge tthe mt ona met hel oop. Ma nyt imes ,the ywi lls ugge stawhi ms ical phr as
    e
    o rs omeor ga nization- spe c i
    f icj argonf ore achl oop.
    Fi gur e51 9S howsac aus a ldi agr amde velope dbye ngi ne ersa ndma nage rsi na
    wor ks hopdes ignedt oe xpl or et hec aus esofl at ede l
    ive ryf ort he iror ga niza ti
    on's
    des ignwor k｡Thedi agr amr e pres entst hebe ha vioroft hee ngl ne erStryl ngt O
    compl eteapr ojecta ga lnStade adline. Thee ngl ne erSc ompa rethewo rkre ma ining
    tobedonea ga i
    nstt het imer ema iningbe f orethede adl i
    ne. Thel ar gert hega p, t
    he
    mor eSc he dul ePr e ssur ethe yf e el･Whe ns chedul epr ess urebui l
    dsup,e ngl ne er
    S
    ha ves eve ra lc hoice s. First,the yc a nwor kove r
    timeJns te adoft heno rma l50hour s
    pe rwe e k, the yc anc omet owor ke arly, skipl unc h,s t
    ayl ate, andwo rkt hrought he
    we eke nd.Bybur ningt heMi dni ghtOi l,the yinc r easet her atea twhi c hthe yc om-
    ple tet he irt as ks,cutt heba c kl ogofwor k,a ndr elievet hes c hedul epr essure( ba l
    -
    anc ingl oopB1 ).Howe ver ,ift hewor kwe eks tayst oohi ght ool ong, fat
    igues etsin
    andpr oduc tivltyS uf fer s･Aspr oduc ti
    vi t
    yf a l
    ls ,t het askc ompl etionr at
    edr ops ,
    whi chi nc re a sessc he dul epr es sur ea ndl ea dstos tilllonge rhour s:ther einf orcing
    Bur noutl oopRll imi tst hee fe c ti
    ve ne ssofove rtime. Anot he rwa yt oc ompl e tethe
    wor kf a steri st or e duc et het imes pe ntonea cht ask.Spe ndi ngl es stimeone ach
    taskboos tsthenumbe roft a sksdonepe rhour( pr oduc tivit y)a ndr elievess che dule
    pr essur e, thusc losingt heba lanc l
    ngl oopB2･ Di sc ussi
    o noft hena mef ort hisl oop
    wa shea ted.Thema na ge rsc laime dt hee nglne e rSa lwa ysgol d-pl atedt he i
    rwor k;
    the yf elts c he dulepr es surewa sne e dedt os que ez eoutwa stea ndge tthee ngi ne er
    s
    tof oc usont hej ob. Thee ngl ne e rSa rgue dt ha tsc he dulepr ess ureo fte nros es ohi gh
    thatt he yha dnoc hoi c ebutt oc utba c kqua l
    itya s suranc ea nds ki pdoc ume ntation
    Ch
    apt
    er5 Ca
    usa
    lLo
    opDi
    agr
    ams 149

    GURE 5
    FI -
    9 Ti
    m e
    Nameandnumb
    yourloopsto
    er Rma
    n
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    g
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    W
    o
    r
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    tと≡
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    M
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    Pro
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    oft he irwor k.The yc all


    e dittheCo me rCut tingl oop( B2) .Thee nginee rsthe na ト
    gue dthatc or nerc utt
    ingl SSe l
    f- defeatlngbe caus eitinc re asest hee rr
    orr ate,whi c h
    lea dstor e wor ka ndlowe rproduc ti
    vltyi nt hel ongr un:" Ha s t
    ema keswa st
    e ,Hthe y
    said,a nds che dulepr essurer isesf urther,le adingt os tillmo repr essuretoc utc or-
    ne rs(loopR2) .
    Thef ullmode li
    nc l
    ude dma nymor eloops( section5. 1pr ovi desac l
    os elyr e-
    late de xampl e;s eealsos ection2. 3).Thena me sgi ve nt ot hel oopsbyonegr oup
    (engi ne e
    r s)c ommuni catedthe ira tt
    itude sandt her at
    iona l
    ef ort heirbeha viort othe
    ma nage rsinac l
    earandc ompe lli
    ngwa y.Thec onve rsa t
    iondi dnotde gene rateint o
    adhomi ne ma r gume ntsbe twe e nma na gerss hout ingt ha te ngi neersJus tne edt o
    ha vet heirbut tsk ickedande ngl neerSgr lplngt ha tge ttlngpr omot edt oma na ge me nt
    turnsyourbr ai
    nt olf
    Tert
    iliz
    e r]-t hemodeofdi sc oursemos tc ommoni nt heo rga -
    niz ati
    onpr lOrtOt heintervent i
    on. ParticlpantSS OOnbe ga nt ot alka boutt heBur nout
    Loopki ckingl na ndthenonl ine arr el
    ations hipsbe twe ens c he dulepr essure,ove -r
    time, fa t
    igue,a nde rr
    or s
    . Thena mesf ort hel oopsma dei te as yt or ef
    ert oc ompl e x
    chunksoff e edba ckstructure.Thec once ptsc apt uredbyt hena me sgradua ll
    ybe ga n
    toe nte rtheme ntalmode l
    sa ndde cis
    ionma kingoft hema na ge rsa nde nglne erSi n
    t
    heor ga niza tio
    na ndledt oc ha ngei nde eplyI ng ra i
    ne dbe ha vior s.
    150 Pa
    rtH To
    olsf
    orSys
    temsTh
    inki
    ng

    5.
    2.5 ;
    ndi
    cat
    e!n
    lPOr
    tantDe!
    ays弓
    1
    1G訓J
    Saきし
    .∃
    nks
    De l
    aysa rec ri
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    alinc rea
    tl
    ngd y namics.De l
    aysgl VeS ys
    temsi nerti
    a, c
    a ncre a
    tes o -

    cill
    ations,anda reo f
    tenresponsiblefortrade-offsbe t
    we e
    nt hes hort-andl ong-un
    r
    efe ctsofpol ici
    es.Yo urcausald i
    agramss houl dincludedelayst hatarei mpo rt
    ant
    tothed yna michy pothesi
    so rs
    ig nif
    icantrela
    tivet oyourtimeho ri
    zon.Ass howni n
    chapte rll ,dela
    ysa lwaysinvo lvestocka ndf lows truc
    tures.So me ti
    me si tisi
    m-
    portanttos ho wthe s
    es t
    ructur
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    plici
    tlylnyo urdiagra
    ms .Of ten,ho weve r,i
    tis
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    ntt oindicatethepresenc eofat imede layl naC ausallinkwi thoute xpl
    ic-
    itl
    ys howi ngthes tockandflows tuc
    r ture.Figur e5-10showsho wtimed elaysare
    representedi ncausaldiagrams.
    Whe nt hepr l
    CeO fagoo drises,supplywi lltendt oi
    nc r
    ease ,butofteno nlyaf-
    tersignifi
    c a
    ntd elayswh i
    lenewc apacit
    yl SOrde redandbui l
    ta ndwhi lene wf ir
    ms
    enterthema rket.Seea l
    sothet i
    mede laysintheBu rnoutandHa steMa kesWa ste
    loopsi nFi gure5-9｡

    Exampl
    e:Ener
    gyDemand
    Ther e sponseofga solines alest opr lCeinvo lve sl ongd e
    lays .Inthes ho r
    trun, gaso-
    linede ma ndi squl teine las t
    ic: ifpric esrise,pe o plec anc utd owno ndi scretionary
    trlpSS O me Wha t,butmos tpe opl es t
    illha vetod rivet owo rk, school,andt hes upe r
    -
    ma r
    ke t.Aspe opler ealizet ha tp ri
    c esa relikelyt os t
    a yhiht
    g heyma yo r
    gan izec ar
    -
    poo l so rswi tcht opu bl ict rans po rt
    a t
    ion,i fiti sa lread yava ilable｡Ove rtimehi gh
    pr i
    c esi nduc eo t
    he rrespo ns es.Fir st
    ,c ons ume r s( andt hea ut ocompa nies)wa itto
    se ei fga spr icesa reg oi ngt OS tayhi g he noug ha ndl onge no ughtoJ usti
    fybuyi ng
    orde signingmo ree f
    fic ientc a rs(ape rceptua la ndde cisi
    on- makingde l
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    C eandd e ma ndf orga solinei ss ignificantl
    ymo rethanad e cade.As
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    5
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    FIGURE5-12 l
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    GURE5
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    5.
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    andflOws t
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    5
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    reas onlnglnmo red etail
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    5
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    whom t hea uth


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    GURE5
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    e
    ega
    xpH
    t
    i
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    v
    el
    .
    Humanagen
    oops

    c
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    u
    al
    i
    y c
    t
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    O
    u
    al
    i
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    .
    -;
    P
    _-
    -
    r
    o
    Q
    u
    d
    u
    i
    a
    c
    t
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    t i
    i
    l
    naturalprocesses
    cande
    goal
    Top:
    s･
    Th
    t
    er min

    egoal
    e

    of
    (
    す真土
    QuaMt
    y
    (
    ?'Quali
    ty
    主王
    Qual
    Shor
    i
    t
    f
    t
    y
    aH

    theloopIS 日
    mprovement I
    mprovementT
    t
    f{-
    determinedb y Pr
    ograms Pr
    ograms +
    man agemen t
    decisi
    on
    . Coff
    ee Room
    Bot
    tom.
    ･ Temper
    atur
    e Temperat
    ure
    Th elawsof
    thermodynami
    cs
    determinet
    hegoal Temperat
    ure
    Di
    ff
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    oftheloop.
    156 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    desiredl evelofpr od uc tq uality?TheCEO' se dict?Be nc hma rki


    ngs t
    ud i
    e sofc om -

    petitorq uali
    ty?Cus tome rInpu t?Thec ompa ny' sownpa stq ualit
    yle vels?Wh enthe
    goa lise xplici
    tt heseq ue st
    ionsa r emo relike lyt obea ske da ndhypo the sesabout
    thea nswe rsc anbeq uic klyi nc or
    po r at
    e di nt hemod el
    .
    Ma kingthegoa lsofne ga ti
    vel o opse xpl icitise s
    pe cia ll
    yi mpor tantwhe nthe
    loopsc aptur
    ehuma nbe ha vior･Buto fteni tisi mpo r
    tantt or epresentgoa lsexpli
    c -

    it
    lye ve nwhe nt hel oopdoe snoti nvol vepe o plea tall･Thes econde xa mpl epo r
    -
    tr
    ayst hene gativef T
    ee d
    ba ckbywhi chac upofc offeec ool stor oom t empe ratur
    e.
    Ther a teo fcooling( ther atea twhi c hhe a tdi fus esf r
    omt hehotc ofe etot hesu r
    -
    round inga ir
    )i sroug hlypr opo rti
    o na ltot hed ife r
    e ncebe twe e nthec ofe et emper-
    at
    ur ea ndr oomt empe ra t
    ur e･Thec oo lingp roc essstopswhe nt hetwot empe rat
    ures
    ar
    ee qua LTh isba siclawo fthe r
    mod yna mic si sma d eclea rwhe nthegoa lisshown
    explicitly.
    The rea ree xcept l
    OnSt Ot hepr lnC ipleo fs howi ngt hegoa lsofne gativeloops.
    Co nside rthede athr atel oo pi nFi g ure5- 1. Thegoa loft hede a
    thr ateloo plSim-
    pl
    ic i
    t( ande qua ltoz ero: int hel ongr un, wea reallde ad). Yo urmode lssho ul
    dno t
    explicitl
    ypo rtrayt hegoa lo fthed e a t
    hl oo po rthegoa lsofs imi l
    arde caypr oc
    e s
    ses
    sucha st hede preciationofc apitale qul pme nt.

    5.
    2.ll a
    )isモi
    E
    lguishbeモ
    W･?enA･7
    号l
    Jah?
    nd
    PerceivedCondi
    tions
    Of t
    ent herea res i
    gni fi
    cantdi f fer
    e nc esbe twe e
    nt het rues tateofa fa irsa ndt he
    percept ionOft ha tstatebyt hea ctorsi nthes ystem. The rema ybede laysc aus edby
    reportlnga ndme asureme ntpr oces ses.The rema ybenoi se,me a sure me nte rror,
    bias,andd is
    tor t
    ions ･Intheq ua li
    tyma na geme nte xampl es howni nFi gur e5- 16,
    therema ybes ignificantde laysi na ssess l
    ngq ualitya ndi ncha ngingma na ge me nt's
    oplniona boutpr oduc tqua li
    t y･Se pa ratlngpe rceive da nda ctua lcondi tionshe l
    ps
    promptq uestionss uc ha sHowl ongdoe si ttaket ome asurequa lity?Toc ha nge
    ma nag eme nt'so plniona bo utqua litye ve na ft
    e rtheda t
    aa rea vailabl e?Toi m-
    pleme ntaqua lityImpr oveme ntprog ra m?Tor ealizer esult
    s?Be side sthel o ngt l
    me
    delays, therema ybebi asint her epo rtingS ystemC ausingr eportedqua lityt odi fe r
    systema ticall
    yf r
    om qua li
    ya
    t se xpe rienc edbyt hec ust
    o me r.Cus tome rsdo n'tf il
    e
    wa r
    rant yc laimsf ora l
    lpro blemso rr epo rta llde fectstothe irsa l
    e sr epr ese nta tive.
    Salesa ndr epa l
    rpe rsonnelma yno tre po rtallc ustome rco mpl aintst ot heho me
    Offi
    c e
    . The rema ybebi asins e niorma na g eme nt'sq uali
    tya ssessme nt be caus es ub-
    ordinate sfilt
    ert hei nfo r
    ma tiont ha tre ache sthe m･So mea utoe xe cut ive sa repr oI
    videdwi ththel atestmode lsfo rtheirpe rsona luse ;thesec arsa r
    ec areful lys e lected
    and丘.e que ntlys ervicedbyc o mpa nyme c hanic s
    . The irimpr essi
    onoft heq ua li
    tyo f
    he
    t i
    rf i
    r m' scar swi llbeh ighe rtha nt hato fthea ve ragec ustome rwhobuysof fthe
    lotandke epst hec arf or1 0ye ars.Thed iagram mi ghtber evise da ss howni n
    Figure5- 17.Thedi ag r
    am now s howsho w ma na geme nt,de spltegoodi nten-
    t
    ions ,ca nc omet ohol dag ros slye xa gge ratedvi ewofpr oductqua li
    ty ,a ndyoua re
    we l
    lpos it
    ione df oradi scussiono fwa yst os hor t
    e nthed elaysa nde limi na tet he
    dist
    ortio ns.
    Ch
    apt
    er5 Ca
    usa
    lLo
    opDi
    agr
    ams 157

    FIGURE5 -17 Biasin


    Disti
    ngui
    sh Report
    ing
    be

    c
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    ondi
    er
    t
    i
    c
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    em
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    座 軒 Product Bi
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    it
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    豆
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    l
    mprovement 誓ua!i
    _
    ty. J
    Shortfal
    l
    pr
    ogr
    ams ㌣ 車 重 ｢

    5.
    3 PROCESSPoINT:
    DEVELOPI
    NG CAUSALDI
    AGRAMSFROM r
    NTERVI
    EW DATA
    Muc ho ftheda taamode lerus estod ev e l
    o pad yna mi chy po the sisc ome sf r
    o mi n-
    tervie wsa ndc onve rsa t
    io nswi thpe opl ei no r
    ga niz ations ･The rea rema nyt ech-
    nlq ue Sa vailabl etoga the rda taf romme mbe rso fo rga niza tions ,inc lud i
    ngs urveys,
    interv iews , pa rt
    iclpa ntO bs erva tion, arc hiva lda ta ,a nds oo n･ Sur ve ysge nera l
    lydo
    no ty ieldda tariChe noug ht obeus efuli nde ve l
    o pl ngS yste md yna mi c smod els.I
    -n
    tervie wsa rea ne ffT
    ectiveme thodt oga the rda taus e fuli nf ormul atingamod e l
    ,e i
    -
    therc onc eptua lo rfわr ma l .Se mi struc t
    ur e dint ervi ews( whe ret hemode lerha sas et
    ofpr ed efine dq ue stionst oa skbuti sf r eet od e pa rtf r
    omt hes c riptt OPur suea V-
    enue so fpa rticula rinte r
    e st)ha vepr o ve nt obepa rt
    i cularlye f
    fe ctive.
    Inte r
    vi ewsa rea lmos tne ve rsufi cienta lonea ndmus tbes u ppl eme ntedby
    othe rs o urce so fda ta ,bo thq ua l
    itativea ndq ua ntita tive. Pe opleha veonl yal oc al
    ,
    par ti
    a lunde rstandi ngoft hes ys t
    em,S oyo umus ti nt ervie wa llre leva nta ctors,at
    mul t
    ipl el eve ls,inc ludingt hos eo ut sidet heo rga ni z at
    io n( cus tome rs ,Suppl i
    e rs
    ,
    etc.). Intervi ewda tai sr ich, inc ludingd escriptionsofde cisionpr oc es ses,internal
    po lit
    ic s,attributionsa bo utt hemo ti
    ve sa ndc ha ra cte rsofo thers ,andt he oriestoe x-
    plaine ve nts ,bu tt
    he sed ife rentt ype sofi nfo r
    ma tio na remi xe dt oge the r.Pe ople
    bo thk no wmor et ha nt he ywi llt ellyo ua ndc a ni nve ntr atlona lesa nde veni nc i
    -
    dent st oj ustifyt he i
    rbe liefs, pr ovidingyo uwi th" da ta"t heyc an' tpos si
    blykno w
    (Ni sbe ttandWi lson1 977 ).Themo de lermus ttria ng ul at
    ebyus inga sma nys o urces
    ofda taa spos sibletoga ini ns ightint ot hes truc t
    u r eo ft hep roblems i
    tua tiona ndt he
    dec isionpr oc esseso fthea cto rsi nit.Ane x tens ivel itera
    tur epr ovi de sg uida ncei n
    techn iq uesf o rqua litat
    iveda tac ollec t
    io na nda na lys is ;See ,fore xa mpl e ,Ar gyrlSet
    al.( 198 5 ),Emme r s
    one ta l.( 1995) ,Gl asera ndSt r aus s( 196 7),Kl eine ra ndRot h
    (199 7) , Ma rc he ta l
    .( 1991 ), Mo recro fta ndSt erma n( 199 4) ,Va nMa ane n( 1988),
    andYi n( 1994) .
    158 Pa
    rtI To
    I olsf
    orS
    yst
    emsTh
    ink
    ing

    Onc eyou' vedoneyouri nterviews ,youmus tbea blet oe xtra ctt hec aus al
    struc tureoft hes ys t
    emf rom t hes tat
    eme ntsoft hei nte r
    vi ews ubj ects.Fo rmul a te
    vari ablena me ss ot hatthe yc o rr
    espondc lose lyt ot hea ctualwor dsus e dbyt hepe r-
    sonyoui ntervi ewe d,whi les ti
    lladhe r
    ingt ot hepr l
    nC ipl esf orpr ope rva ri ablena me
    sele ctiondes cribe da bove( nounphr ase s,ac leara ndpos itives enseofdi re cti
    on) .
    Ca us all inkss houl dbedi rec tl
    ys upporte dbyapa ssagei nt het rans cript. Typi cally,
    peopl ewi l
    lnotde scri
    bea llt helinksyouma ys e ea ndwi llnote xpl icitlyc lose
    ma nyf ee dba ckl oops .Shoul dyoua ddt hes ea ddi t
    iona llinks ?I tde pe ndsont he
    pur pos eofyourdi agra m｡
    Ifyoua ret rylngt Or epr esentape r SOn' sme nt almode l,youmus tnoti nc l
    ude
    anyl inkst ha tc annotbegr ounde dint hepe r son' sowns t
    a teme nt s.Howe ver,you
    ma yc hoos et os howt hei nitialdiagramt ot hepe rs ona ndi nvi tehi morhe rtoe lab-
    orateo ra dda nymi s
    slngl inks .Peoplewi llof tenme ntiont hemot iva ti
    onf orade-

    cisiont he yma de,Wi tht hef eedbacke ffectont hes ta teoft hes ys temi mpl ici
    tly
    unde rstood. Fore xa mple ," Ourma rkets harewa ss lippi ng,S OWef iredt hema r
    ke t-
    1ngVPa ndgotour selvesane wa da ge ncy.HI mpl ic itint hi sdes crlptlOni st hebe -
    lie
    ft ha tane wVPa nda ge nc ywoul dl ea dt obe ttera dsa nda ni nc rea sei nma rke t
    shar e,c los i
    ngt hene ga t
    ivel oo p.
    I fthepur pos eofyouri nte r
    viewsi stode velopagoodmode loft hepr oblem
    sit
    ua tion,yous houl dsuppl e me ntthelinkss ugges tedbyt hei ntervie wswi thot he r
    datas our c ess ucha syourowne xperienc ea ndobs erva ti
    ons ,archiva lda ta,a nds o
    on.Ⅰ nma nyc ases ,youwi llne edtoa dda ddi tiona lc aus allinksnotme ntione di n
    thei nte rviewso rothe rda tas ources･Whi les omeoft he sewi l
    lr epre s
    e ntba sicphys -
    icalr elaions
    t hi psa ndbeobvi oustoa ll,othe r sre qul rej ustificationo re xpl ana t
    ion.
    Yous houl ddr aw ona lltheknowl edgeyouha vef rom youre xpe ri
    e nc ewi tht he
    syste mt oc ompl e tethedi a gram･ 1

    Pr
    ocess垂
    m町OVen
    頂門号
    Thef oll
    owlngtwoquotesa r
    ea ct
    ualint
    e r
    viewtranscr
    lPt Sdevelo
    pedinfieldwork
    carr
    iedouti nanautomobilecompa nyintheUni te
    dSt a tes
    .Thema nagers,fr
    om
    twodi f
    fere
    ntcomponentplantsi
    nthes a
    medi vis
    ionoft hec ompany,desc
    ribewhy
    theyieldofthei
    rli
    neswa spersi
    ste
    ntlylowa ndwhyi tha dbe ensodif
    fi
    culttoget
    processimprovementpr
    og r
    amsof ftheground(Repenni nga ndSter
    man1 999):
    Inthemindsoft
    he[ ope
    rati
    onsteamleade
    rs]t
    heyhadtohitt
    heirpackcount
    s[da
    il
    y
    quotas
    ]･Thi
    sme a
    ntifyouwe r
    eha vi
    ngaba ddayandyouryie
    ldha dfal
    le
    n.‥y ou
    hadtorunli
    kecrazytohityourta
    rget
    .Ⅵ)uc o
    uldsay
    ,=Youarema king20%
    gar
    ba g
    e,sto
    ptheli
    rleandfi
    xth epr
    obler
    r,
    l"ar
    idt
    heywo ul
    dsay,HIcar
    l't
    hiti
    rl
    y
    packcountwit
    houtrunnl
    nglikecraz
    y.HTheycoul
    dn e
    vergetaheadofthegame.
    -Man
    age
    ratPl
    ant
    A
    Supe
    rvis
    orsne
    verhadt
    imetomakei
    mprove
    ment
    so rdopre
    ven
    tiv
    ema i
    nte
    nance
    onth
    eirl
    ines-･the
    yhadtospe
    ndal
    lth
    eirt
    imeJ
    usttr
    ylngt
    Okeepth
    elin
    eg o
    lng,

    i
    Burc
    hil
    landFi
    ne(
    1997)i
    l
    lus
    tr
    at
    eho
    wca
    usa
    ldi
    agr
    amsc
    anb
    ede
    vel
    oedf
    p romi
    nt
    er
    vi
    ewd
    ata
    i
    napro
    ductde
    velo
    pment
    cont
    ext
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er5 Ca
    usa
    lLo
    opDi
    agr
    ams 159

    b
    utthi
    smean
    titwa
    sal
    waysi
    nasta
    teoff
    lux･ Hbec
    auseev
    e r
    ythi
    ngwass
    oun
    pre
    -
    d
    ict
    abl
    e･I
    twasaki
    ndofs
    nowba
    lle
    ffe
    cttha
    tjust
    keptg
    ett
    lngworse.
    -Su
    pe7
    Vis
    orat
    Pla
    ntB

    De vel
    opas lngleca usaldiagramc apturlngt hedyna mi c
    sdes cr
    ibedbyt hei nter-
    views.Na meyo urloo psusingt em sf
    r romt hequot eswhe repossi
    ble.Expl a
    ini na
    paragraphortwohowt heloo psc apturet hedyna micsdes cri
    bed,Buildyourdi al
    grama roundtheba sicphysicals t
    ructures howni nFi gure5- 1
    8.TheNe tThr ough-
    putofapr oces
    s(thenumbe rofus ablepa rtsproducedpe rtimeperiod,fo
    re xampl e,
    thenumbe rofus ablepa r
    tsproduc edpe rday)e qualsGr ossThroughput(thet otal
    numbe rproducedpe rtimepe riod)mul t i
    pliedbyt hepr ocessYie
    ld( t
    hefracti
    onof
    grossthroughputt hatpa ss
    esi nspectiona ndi sus able).Ther ema i
    nder,Gr os s
    Throughput* (1IYi el
    d),arede fect
    ive.

    + Net

    Gr
    oss -√
    一㊥ Throughput
    Thr
    oughput

    5.
    4 CoNCEPTUAuZATJ
    ONCASESTUDY:
    NG Yo
    MANAGI uRW oRKLOAD
    Thissecti
    onil
    lust
    rat
    es血eus eofc ausa
    ldiagr
    amstomode la
    ni s
    sue･Theexa
    mple
    showshowc ausaldi
    agrammlngC anbea na
    idtothedevelo
    pme ntofadyna
    michy-
    pot
    he s
    is,al
    ongwi t
    hidenti
    fyi
    ngva ri
    ablesa
    nddeveloplngarefT
    er
    encemodeshow-
    1ngthedynamicsofthevaria
    blesovertherel
    eva
    nttimehor i
    zon.

    5.
    4.1 Pr
    obJ
    em Def
    ini
    ti
    on
    Cons iderthepr ocessofma na glngyourWOr kloa d. Youmi ghtbea ne nglne eri na
    produc tdevelopme nto rgani
    za ti
    on, ac onsultant,oraCEO. Toke epl tC OnC r
    ete, foI
    cusonas tudentma na ginghisorhe rwor kload.As tude nt(imagineyour s
    e l
    f)mus t
    balanc eclas
    se sanda sslgnme ntSWi tho utsidea ctiviti
    es ,ape r
    sonall i
    fe,a nds le ep.
    Duringt hes eme st
    eryoua tt
    endc la
    sse s,dot her ea dings ,a
    ndha ndi na sslgnme ntS
    asthe ya r
    edue, atleastoc cas
    i onall
    y. Yo upr obabl yt r
    yt owor kha rde rifyout hink
    yourgr adesar elowe rthanyoudes irea ndt akemor etimeof fwhe nyoua r eslee-p
    deprive dandyo ure nergyl e
    ve lfall
    s .The rea retwoba sicpoli
    c i
    esyouc anf ollow:
    (1)Thea nts t
    r a
    tegy一me verputof funt ilt omor row wha tyouc a ndot oday;or
    (2)thegr ass
    hoppe rs t
    ra t
    egy-ne verdot oda ywha tc anbeputof funt iltomo rrow.
    Thea ntwor kss teadil
    ythr oughoutt hes e mes t
    e ra swor kisa ss
    igne da ndne ve r
    buil
    dsupal argeba cklogofa sslgnme ntS. Asar e sult,thea ntavoidst hee ndofs e-
    meste rcrunch,ke e
    pst hewo rkwe ekunde rc ontrol,a ndi sabletos taywe llres ted.
    Beca usethea ntge t
    se noughs leep,produc t
    ivityi shi gh,andt hea ntha splentyof
    160 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    em s
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    ti
    met opartlCl
    patei no uts
    idea c
    tiviti
    es.Thea nt
    'sgradesimprov esteadilythrough-
    outthet erm.
    Theg rasshop per,inc ontrast,de f
    erst hewo rkunt i
    lthel as
    tmi nute.The
    grassho p
    pe r'
    swo rkwe ekisl owa tthebe ginnlngOfthet erm,providinglo t
    soft i
    me
    forpa rie
    t sa ndo utsidea c
    tiviti
    es. Theg rasshopperc anstayreasonablywe l
    lrested
    desplteahe avys oc ia
    ls che dulebe causet hewo rkwe eki sl
    ow.Butbe ca
    uset he
    grassho p
    pe rdo esn'tdot hewo rka sfasta sitisasslgned,theas s
    lgnme ntba ckl
    og
    stea
    d il
    ybu ildsu pi Eventually,it'
    sc runcht ime,andt hegrasshoppers tart
    sputting
    inlongho urs,perha pspul l
    ingaf ewa ll-
    ni ghte
    rs･Un fort
    unately,ass le
    e psuffers
    ,
    energya ndp roduc ti
    vityfall.Ther ateandq ua l
    it
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    s･Gra desplumme t
    ,
    andt heterme ndsbe foretheg rasshopperc anfinisha l
    lthewo rk,pe rhapsleadi
    ng
    t
    heg r ass
    ho ppertopl ea dfore xtensionsfromt hef acult
    y.

    5且2 E
    dent
    i菅
    y岳mgKeyVar
    iab暑
    es
    Thedesc
    rlpt
    lOnabovesuggest
    sse
    ver
    alva
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    ble
    simpor
    tantinamode
    lofs
    tude
    nt
    workl
    oadma na
    geme n
    t(unit
    sofmeas
    urea
    regiv
    eninpa
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    es)
    :
    Ass
    ignmentrat
    e:ther
    atea
    twhi
    chpr
    ofe
    sso
    rsa
    ssl
    gnWO
    rkt
    hro
    ughoutt
    he
    t
    erm(ta
    sks/
    week).
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    sethelis
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    5.
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    Her
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    5.
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    Cons iderFi gure51 21･TheAs signme ntRa teisa ssume dt obee xoge nous '
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    slgnme ntBa c klogl Si ncreasedbyt heAs signme ntRa tea ndde creas edbyt heCom-
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    Wo rkpr es s
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    i on:Pr od uct sa nds ervi ce sa rei nc reas l
    ng ly
    d i
    f f
    e rent iateda ndc ompa nie sc ompe tet oo f f
    e rt hebe sta va ilabi li
    y,de
    t live ryr e l
    ia-
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    ty ,te rmso fpa y me nt, after ma r
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    ma nyma rke tsp rlCeSdono tc ha ngef as te no ug ht oe qui l
    ibr ates uppl ya ndd ema nd
    ando the rc omp e ti
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    itybe co mei mpor ta nti nc le arl
    ng
    thema r ke t
    . Pr ice sma ybes lugg ishd uet og ov emme ntr eg ul ation, thec os tsa n da d一
    mi ni stra t
    ivebu rde noff req ue ntpr ic eC ha nge s ,orc o ns ide rationsoff a irnes s.Fo r
    exa mpl e,mos tpe opl ec ons ide ri tunf a i
    rf orha rdwa res t orest or a iset hepr iceO f
    sno ws hove lsa f teras torm, e ve nt ho ug hd ema n dma yha vei nc reas e d( s eeKa hne -
    ma n, Kne ts ch,a ndTha ler1 98 6; Tha le r1 991 ) .
    Inma nyI ns ti
    tutiona ls e tt
    lngSpr lCedoe snotme dia tema rke tsa ta l
    l ･Mos t
    or ga niz ations ,fo re xa mpl e,ha venopr ic e-me d iatedma rke tsf orofi ce s,pa rking
    spa c es ,se nio rma na ge me nta t
    te nt ion,a ndma nyo the rs c arcer es our c es ･Int he se
    ca ses ,s uppl ya ndde ma nda r es tillc o upl edv iane ga tivef ee dba cks ,butr e
    s ou rces
    area lloc atedo nt heba s iso fa va ilabi lit
    y ,po l
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    tery,
    oro the ra dmi n istrativepr oc ed ur es･Fi g ure5- 27s howsexa mpl esofno n- prlCe-
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    loo pswhi chr eg ulatet hede ma ndf o ra nds uppl yofar es our ce･ Asi nt hec aseof
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    e ad-
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    172 P
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    ld. Oilpr lCeSmo retha n
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    rse mba rgoeds hipme nt
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    acted｡ Inste
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    dicte dt hatoilpr l
    C eSWe rehe adede ve nhig hera ndwo uldne verr etumt ot hel ow
    level soft hee arly1 970S .Buta fterre achingne a rl
    y$ 50pe rba r
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    ,
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    a psedint hemi d1 980S .Ma nyo ilexpl orati
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    i ve
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    c ywa sc ommo n.I nt heUS,ga soli
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    -ga sol
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    wa so f
    te none -four t
    ht hepr l
    CeOfde signerwa ter.
    St artingwi tht heba si
    cma rke tf eedba cks truc ture( Figu re5- 26 ),de ve l
    opa
    caus aldi agramt oe xplain(1)thef ailureofma rke tf or
    ce st obringpr ice sba ckt o
    equi li
    b riums o ona f
    terthef i
    rstoils ho ck( t
    ha tis ,Howc ouldpr icesr ema i
    ns ohi h
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    sol ong? )and( 2)whypr ic
    esc ollaps edi nt hemi d1 98 0sa ndr ema inedbe lowt he
    equilibriuml eve lfor solong( t
    ha tis, Whyd idn' tprice sstayhi gh? ),Tohe lp,Figu re
    5-llS howss omeo fthec ausallinkso nt hede ma nds i
    deo fthema rke t.Fig ure3 -4
    showsUSpe trol eumpr oduction,c onsumpt l
    On,a ndr ealpr lCeSO Vert her eleva nt
    Ch
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    ti
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    nesf orcausalloop
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    rateofoi
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    eofdr i
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    plotcapa
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    hel ikelydynami csoft heworldoil
    priceOVe
    rthene xtfewdec ades?

    Specul
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    Nota l
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    SouthSeabubbl eof1 720tot hema niasandc rashesofthepas tf ew dec a
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    ate,impr ess
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    JohnSt ua r
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    edthees senceofthedyna micsofs peculati
    oni nthef ol -

    lowingpas s agef rom hisfamoust xtPr


    e i
    nciplesofPol i
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    c alEc onomy ,originally
    publishedin18 48:
    Whe nt herei sage ne r alimpre ssi
    o nthatthep ri
    ceO fsomec o mmo dityl Slikelyto
    ris
    e ,fro ma ne x trad e ma nd, asho rtcrop,o bstructionst oi mpo rt
    ati
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    no rdertop ro
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    byt hee xpectedr ise. Thi sdispositi
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    ft opr oduc et heef f
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    looksf orwa rdt o, ari seo fprice:andi fther iseisc o nside r
    abl eandpr ogress i
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    l,ar
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    lc ontinuerislng･ The se,byf urtherpu rchase s,producea
    furthera dva nce :a ndt husar iseo fprlCefo rwhi cht herewe r eo r
    lglna l
    lys omer at
    -i
    o
    nalg ro unds, iso ftenhe i
    ghtenedbyme relys pecul at
    ivepur cha ses,untilitg reat
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    exce edswha tt heo rigina lgroundswi l
    ljus t
    ify.Af terat imet hisbe gi
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    hepr lCe Cea se stOrise,andt hehol de rs,thinkingl tt imet orealizet hei
    r
    galnS ,∬ea nx i
    o ust os ell.Thent hepr l
    Cebe ginst ode cline: theho ldersrus hinto
    ma rke ttoa vo i
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    llgr e at
    erlos s,and,fewbe ingwi ll
    ingt obuyl naf alli
    ngma r-
    ket, t
    hepr i
    cef a llsmuc hmo res udd enlytha nitros e.
    Developarefere
    nc emodef l
    orM i l
    'sdescr
    l
    iPt
    lOnOfas pecul
    ati
    vebubbl e.Begi
    n-
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    ngwi tht
    heba s
    ictwo-loops truct
    ureforama r
    ket(Figure5-26),de
    ve l
    opaca usal
    di
    agram gr
    oundedinMi ll'
    ste xtwhichexplai
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    br
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    pl
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    2perha
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    hebes
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    atme
    ntofs
    pecul
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    sChar
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    1978
    )Mani
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    988)TheGr
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    1
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    Th
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    Figure5- 28s howst hepr lCeOft opye ar
    lingt ho roug hbredsi nt heUSf rom1 965
    through1 990. Fr o m1 9 74t o1 98 4nomi nalpr lC e
    Sf orthesee l
    iteho rsesincreased
    bya lmostaf acto ro f1 0,toa bout$ 450,000. Eve na fterremo vingthee f
    fectsofin-
    la
    f tion,ther e alpr lCeO fat opt ho roug hbr edinc rea sedbymo r
    et hanaf ac
    torof4.
    Pricesthe nc ollaps ed,f all
    ingbyne a rl
    y5 0% i nj us t4y ears(inr ealterms )
    . Adapt
    yourd i
    a gramo fs pecula t
    ivebub blest othet ho roug hbredho rsema rket.Adds uffi
    -
    cientdetailtos pe c i
    fythepa rt
    icularbi ol
    og i
    c a
    la ndi nsti
    tuti
    ona
    lf eat
    u resofthema r
    -
    ket.Fore xa mpl e ,wha ta rethemo tivationsfo rowni ngat opr ac eho r
    se?(Yo uc an
    considerar ac eho rset obea ni nve stme ntli
    keac o mmo nstock,Wi tha nunc erta
    in
    fut
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    spe rforma nc eo nthetra ck,butthisi soly
    n
    oneoft her ea sonspe opl eownr aceho rses,ande x pectedc ashnowr are
    lyjus t
    ifi
    es
    suchar iskyi nve s t
    me nt ).Ho wi sthes upplyo fho r sesincreased?Wha ttimede lays
    areinvolve d?
    Useyou rc aus aldi agramt oe xpl ai
    nt hed yna mi csofthet horoughbredpr i
    ce
    duringthe1 9 70sa ndS OS.Whydi dt hema rke trises od rama tica
    lly?Whydi dit
    crasheve nf aster?I n1 9 65a bo ut1 8,000t ho r
    o ugh br edswe rebo mi nNo rt
    hAme r
    -
    ica.Usingyo u rmo del, Sketcht hel ikelybe hav ioro fthebi r
    thr a t
    eofNo rt
    hAme r
    -
    icanthoro ughbr e dsthr oug h1 990.

    500

    400

    8
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    0
    J= 200
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    ≡

    100

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    1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

    ce.
    Sour 'Her
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    nk(
    1990)
    .

    5息 確 聞aF
    敗e竜野
    a_
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    Ma nyrealwo rl
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    mitat
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    ma t
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    Theseimpe r
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    eatefeedbacks
    t
    ha tsometimeso verwhelmthene gati
    veloo psnormal
    lyba la
    ncingS upplyandde -
    ma nd,leadi
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    sourceofma rketfai
    lureisadversesel
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    Adversesel
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    ffer
    ent
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    nfo r
    ma t
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    ce xample,fi
    rstdeve l
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    lof(1970),considersthe
    Ch
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    us edca rma rket.Tbi l


    lustratehow a dve r ses electionwor ks ,Ake rlofas sumedt ha t
    theowne rsofus edca rsknowt het ruequa li
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    ke tpr lCe,OWne rS,knowl ngt het ruequa li
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    lywor t
    hl es st ha nt hema rke tpr i
    c e( the
    " l
    emons ")whi leke epinga nyca ra ctua l
    l ywor thmor e( the" pea ches") .The refor e,
    theonl yc arsof feredf ors al
    ewi l
    lbel e mons .Pot ent
    ia lbuye r s
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    zingt his,re f
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    tobuy･Ake rlofs howe dt hati ne quilibr ium noonewi llbewi llingt obuyaus ed
    ca r
    -t hema rketwi llnote xist, eve nthOught he rea rebuye r sa nds ell
    erswhowoul d
    bewi llingt otr adei fbot hkne w whi chwe rel e
    monsa ndwhi chwe r epea ches ･3
    Ea chpe rson,be havi ngr ati
    ona ll
    ygl Ve nt hei nf orma tiona va ilablet ot he m,Ca us es
    anout comeundes i
    r ablefora ll. Ake rlof'sr esultwa sabr ea kthr oughi ne conomi cs .
    Notonl ydi dhi smode lformt hef ounda tionf orthei mpor tantf ieldofi nforma t
    ion
    economi cs,af i
    e ldofi mme ns ei mpor tanc ei neconomi cst oday, buthea lsode mon-
    stratedt ha tthewor kingsoff reema rke tswe renota lwa ysbe nign,e ve nwi thout
    monopol ypowe rorcol l
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    br a
    te dma rke tforcesf orc reatlnga ni nvis ibleha ndl ea dingi ndivi dualst oH promot e
    ane ndwhi c hwasnopa rtofl the ir]int ention,"anendwhi ch" freque ntlypr omot es
    lthei nte rests]ofs oci et
    y."Ake rlofs howedt ha tr at
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    individua lstopr omot e,thoughuni nte ntiona l
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    ibr i
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    mode la nddoe snota ddresst hedyna mi csoft hepr oces s ･Tbe xami net hedyna m-
    icsofa dve rses electioni na ni mpor t
    antpubl icpol icyc ont ext ,c ons i
    de rthema r
    ke t
    forhea l
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    Si ncethe1 950S ,healthca recostsint heUSha vegr ownmuc hf as terthanGDP
    andhavel ongbe e nt hehi ghes tint hewor l
    d,bot hi na bsol utee xpe nditurespe r
    capltaa nda sape r centofna ti
    ona lincome. Ascos tsros e,s ot oodi dhe alt
    hi nsur -
    anc epr emiums . Fede ralpr ogramss uc hasMedi care(fort heel derl
    y)a ndMe dicaid
    (forthepoor )we rec reatedt opr ovideas afety netf ort hes egr oups .Butr ising
    hea l
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    PPedf ede ralbe nefit
    s,andf orc edt hee lde rl
    yt os eek
    prlVatei nsura nc et os uppl e mentMe dicare.Ast hecos tsofpr lVatei ns urancer os e,
    howe ver,ma nywe refroze noutoft hema rke t
    .Topr eve nthea lthca ref rom ba nk-
    ruptlngt hem,ma nys ta t
    esr equiredhea lthins urerstoofe rs oICall
    e dme digapI n-
    suranc etos e niorci ti
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    egeofunde rwr l
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    gappl anpr ovi di ngunl imi tedcove ragef orpr escrl
    ptlOndr ugs ,Oneoft hehi ghes t
    costsf ortheel d erly.Atf irst,t
    hepr ogr am wa sve r
    ys ucc essful .Inthe1 980S ,
    awi de
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    shareoft het otal s eniorc itiz
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    56.
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    GURE5
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    homet owor k. The1 990c ensusf ounda verageo ne -wa yc o mmut ingtime sf ora l
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    GURE5
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    vehicle -milespe rda y.Tot altraffi
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    vehiclesi nt her egl Onmul ti
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    thenumbe roft ripse achve hiclema kespe rda ya ndt hel engthofea cht rip. Thus,
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    e dba c
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    e dba cksB2t hr oughB5i stoc om-
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    e
    dr opl ntraveltime. Buta spe opl erespondt othe i
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    lpSWO ul dbet aken. Mor epe opl ewoul da bandont hebusa ndbuyc a
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    s
    cont inueunt i
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    ca uset hecommut er e
    qui redist ool ong. Thede laysint he sene gati
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    ,itbec omespos si
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    thet ownorc i
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    ntryOrWOOdsnowbe comesa
    20mi nutedrivef rom thec it
    y,wi thitsj obs,c ulture,a ndni ght l
    if
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    184 P
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    c ommuni tiess prl ngup,C Ommuni tieswhe ret hepe opleha vet odr ivenotonl yt o
    wor kbuta lsot othema rke t, tos chool ,tot hehome soft heirf riendsa ndt heirc hi 1
    -
    dr en' sf riends . Thebur ge onl ngpopul ationbr ingsne wde ve lopme nt ,Sho ps,S trlp
    ma lls ,a ndot he rbus ine ssess pr lngup,t uml ngC Ount rySidet oc ondode ve lopme nt,
    pas tur et opa rkingl ot .Al lt hewhi le,t henumbe rofc arsont her oa dgr ows .Af ter
    s omeye ars,t rafficc onges tioni nt hes ef or me rlyqui ett ownsbe c ome sat errible
    pr obl e m･ Pol iticalpr e ssur egr owsa nds tillmor er oa dsa rebui lt.
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    e vec onge sti
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    bydi ve rtingl ong- ha ult r affica roundt hec e nte rc ity, rapidlya ttrac tedl oc a ldrive rs
    a nds oonpr ove di na de qua te. Tor elievet hec onge stioni twa swi de ne d,f rom f our
    toe i ght ,a ndi npl ac e s,e ve nmor el anes .Ins tretc hest hebr ea kdownl anewa s
    ope ne dt ot raf fi
    cdur i ngr us hhour( notaf ewha ples smot or i stsha vebe enki lled
    whe nt he yha dt het e me rityt ous et hebr ea kdownl a nef orabr e akdown) .Tr afi c
    soonf illedt hes ene wl anes ,a ndt oda ydur ingr us hhourt hec arsc rawla long
    bumpe rt obumpe rt hr oug hl ongs tretche sofr out e1 28･ As ec ondr ingr oa d,I nt
    -er
    sta te495, wa st he nbui lta not he r1 5t o20mi le sf arthe ro ut. Thee xpa nde dne twor k
    ma dee ve nmor ec ount r ysidea cc e ssible ,a nda not he rroundofpo pul a tiongr owt h
    ande c onomi cde ve lo pme ntbe ga n. Thi ss e l
    f-r einf or clngPr oc es sl ea dst omor ea nd
    mor ene wr oa ds,pus hi nge ve rf arthe ri nt ot hec ount rys i
    de, inava ina tte mptt oe ase
    c onge stion･ Thes toryl SS imi la rf orot he rc itie si nt heUS,i nc ludi ngt hepa radigm
    ca seofc onges tion-Lo§Ange les-a swe lla sLondon,Pa r i
    s ,I sta nbul ,Ca iro,
    Tokyo, Ba ngkok,a ndc ount les sot he rc itiesa roundt hewor ld.
    Themode lclea rlys howst hef ut il
    ityofa tte mpt stor e duc et r afficc onges t
    ion
    thr oughr oa dbui ldi ng.I tma yt akes omeye ar s,but ,ina na ut omot iveve rsionof
    Pa rki ns on' sLa w, tr affica lwa yse xpa ndst of illt hehi ghwa ysa va i
    la blef ori tstra ve l
    .
    Tr af ficvol umegr owsunt ilc onge stionl SJ ustba de nought ode terpe opl ef romt a kl
    lngt ha ta ddi tiona lt rip,f rom dr ivingt owor ki ns tea dofr idi ngpubl i ct r ansit,Or
    frommovi ngj us tal ittlef a rthe ro uti ntot hes ubur bs ･
    5T ra f
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    hi sr e-
    ac tion" r oa dge ne rate dt raffic･ "Ha ns en' S( 1 995)e c onome tr ics t
    udyofUSme tro-
    pol ita na reass howe dt ha tthee las tlCltyOft raf ficvol umewi thr es pe ctt ohi ghwa y
    ca pa c it
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    a sei nc apa clyl
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    icwi thi n5ye ars .Ma nyoft hef ee dba cksi de nt ifiedi nt hemode l
    ope rateove re ve nl ong erpe riods , ful yne
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    conge stion. Somea na lys tse ve na r guet ha tbyH a ddingc a pac ityt oac rowde d[ high-
    wa y]ne t wor kyouc o ul da ctua l
    lys lowt hingsdown"( Ka y1 997, p.1 5) ,aphe nom-
    enonk n owna sBr a es s 'La wa fte rt heo pe ra tionsr es ea r
    c ha na lys twhof ir stcoi ne d
    it.Fore xa mpl e, heM25,
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    r affica roundLondon. Inste ad, itisa ctua llyus edpr ima rilyf ors hor tt ripsbyl oc al
    re side nt sa ndc ommut e rs.I tsoonbeca met hebus i
    es thl gh wa yl nEur opea ndha s

    longbe enknowna st̀ hel ongestpar ki ngl oti nt hewo rld' ,thoughc ommut erson
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    St udi est ypi c allyf ind,a st heLondonTl 'me sr epor ted( 1


    0 No ve mbe r1 997) ,that

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    ur es- 36.
    Asl owe rt rave ltimec aus e dbyne wr oa dsi nc rease st hea t
    tra ctive nes sofdr -i
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    muc h,s inc emos toft hec os tsa r ethef ixe dc os t
    sofpr ovi di ngs er vic e:t hebus es
    mus tr unwhe the rthe ya ref ullore mpt yJft het ra nsita uthor ityt riest oc los ei ts
    de ficitbyCos tCut ti
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    the丘. eque nc yo fs ervicei sc ut . Ther ela t
    ivea ttractive ne ssofdr ivi ngr lSeSa ndma ss
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    publ ictra nsitne two rka st hes e l
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    sitf orc a rs.Ri d ershi pf alls,a ndf a resmus tber a i
    s eda ga in, Choki ngof fRi de rship
    (loopR3) .Be c aus ema sst rans its ys t
    e msha veahi ghpr o por tionoff ixe dc os ts ,they
    arehi ghl yvul ne ra blet ot hes es elf-reinf or cl
    ngf ee dba cks .Asr oa dc ons tuc
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    done dt rol leys ,tra i
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    hs pl r alof
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    tyunt ili nma nyc itiesonl yt he
    poor estpe ople ,thos ewhoc a nnota ffor dt omovet ot hes ubur bso rownac a r,ar e
    leftt or idet hepu blict ransits ys tem. At t
    e mpt stobui ldupt hema s st rans itne twor k
    toof fsett hepos itivel oopst ha te roder ide rshipt hr oughMa s sTr a ns itCa pa cltyEx-
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    5.
    6.4 Pol
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    nowus ethemode lt oa sses sthel ike lye ffectofo therpol ic ies.
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    ve rsj oine d
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    the re rodingma s st rans itr ider ship. Ands omee nterpr lSingbuti mmo ralmo torists
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    la ta bled ummi esi nt hepa ssenge rs ea ttof oolt hepol i
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    nuet opl 机t he irho pe sont e chno log lCal
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    hi ghwa ys ys te ms ･ Ma nyc leve rt echno logie sa reunde rde velo pme nt,fro m
    sens or stode tectt hed i
    sta nc et ot hec a ra heada nda ut o ma tica ll
    ya djus tyo urc ar '
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    spe ed,t ot ra nspo nde r so rma gne t se mbe ddedi nther oa ds urf acet oa utoma tica lly
    steeryo urc ar.Al re ad ys ens o rse mbe dde dins o mehi ghwa yst rans mi tr ealtimet rafJ
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    readaboo k.Someo ft he set echnol ogi esar ede s i
    gne dt oi nc rea sehi g hwa ys a
    f ety.
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    e asehi g hwa yc a pa cityl nC iti
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    con trol, t
    het ec hnol ogi stspr o mi se , carsc ouldz i
    ps afelya longa t70mi l
    e spe rho ur
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    lye xpa nd ingt hec apa cltyO fe x istinghi g hwa ys .
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    yo fthe seho pe s.The r ei snot e chnol o glCals olutio n
    tot hec onge sti
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    m. Thel mO ree ff
    e cti
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    Cre aSehi g
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    hemo repe oplewi l
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    attractivepu blict rans itwi llbe ,a ndt hemo rec ount rys idewi l
    lbede velope di n to
    bed roo mc ommuni tiesf orc ommut ers.Thevo lumeoft ra fficwi llswi ftlyr i
    set Oal b
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    d. Wemi g htz ipa longt hef reewa ya t
    sev enty ,butwe' llbes t
    uc ki nmuc hl onge rl i
    ne sa tt hee ntr anc er ampa ndo ns e
    - c
    onda ryr out es .Ont her oa dwa ysoft hef uturewema yr i
    demor es af elya ndmo re
    comf ortabl y, butwewon' tr id emo res wi ft
    ly .
    Ch
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    ams 189

    Econo mistsge nerallysugge stthesolutioni stoc hargetollst ha tincreasea s


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    isco ns
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    iono fpa yingfo rt hef reewa y,and
    somec onc ernov erther egressivei mpa c
    to ftolls,Wo rse,dri
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    st endt os witcht o
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    izeda rea ,theg r
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    theba ll
    oons oi t
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    v iat
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    ficulty?
    Wef ocuso ns ympt o msbe caus es omuc ho fo ure xpe r
    ie ncei swi t
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    mpl es ystems
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    nwhi chc a usea nde ffecta rec loselyr ela
    te di ntimea nds pa ce, i
    nwhi chs ympt om
    andc a
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    single,do mi na ntne ga ti
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    assesslngt hega pbe twe ent hepos iti
    ono ft heo b jecta ndyo urha nd. Wet he ne x-
    t
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    e msi nt ot hema na ge me nto f
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    I
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    Ca usaldiagramsa reapo werfultooltoma pt hefee dbacks tr
    uc tureofc ompl exs ys-
    tems .Ca us
    aldia gramsc a nbehe l
    pfultoyoui nthee a
    rlypha sesofapr o
    j ect
    , Whe n
    youne edtowor kwi tht heclientteamt oe lic
    ita ndc apturet he i
    rme nt
    a lmode l
    s･
    The ya rehelpfulinpr esentl
    ngt heresul
    tsofyourmode l
    ingwor kinano ntechnical
    fashion.Tobee fe cti
    ve,yous houldfollowt herulesf orca usaldi agra
    ms , i
    ncluding
    selectionofva ri
    a blena me s
    ,layout,anda sslgnme ntOflinka ndl ooppol ari
    tiesJt
    isbe sttobuildupdi agramsins teps:re
    s i
    sttheur get ocrea t
    eas lngle,Compr e hen-
    sivedi agram.Asi nle a
    rnlngt Oreadmus i
    c,pr acticeise verythi ng･De ve l
    opyour
    skill
    si nma pplngt hef eedbacks t
    uc
    r tur
    eofs ystemsbys ke t
    chi ngc aus a
    ldi agrams
    toc apturethef e edbacksyour ecognlZea Syour ea dthene ws paperort heg reat
    wor ksofl i
    terat
    ur e.
    St
    ocksa
    ndFl
    ows

    I'
    mv e77goodatinte
    gralanddlHere
    nti
    alcalculus,
    Iknowt hes
    cie
    nti
    ficnamesofbe i
    ngsanimalculous;
    Inshort
    ,inmatt
    ersveget
    able,ani
    mal,andmi ne r
    al,
    Iamt heveTmode
    f lofamode rnMajor-
    Ge neral.
    -W. S.Gil
    bert,Th
    ePi
    rat
    eso
    fPe
    nza
    nce
    ,Ac
    t1.

    Thisc hapteri ntr


    oducest hec once
    pto fstoc
    ksa ndmows ,acentr
    alideaind ynam-
    i
    c s.I
    t pr
    es e
    nt sthec o
    nc eptualandma t
    h emat
    icaldefi
    nitionsofst
    ocksandflo ws,the
    diagramml ngt ool
    sforma pplngnetWOrksofs t
    ocksa ndflows,andcases tudie
    so f
    t
    heus eofs toc ksandflOwsi nmode l
    ingpr o
    jectsincludingautomobil
    er ecycli
    ng
    andt hec onstructi
    ono fpul pa ndpape rmill
    s.De veloplngfacil
    it
    yini dentif
    ying,
    ma pplng,andi nt
    erpret
    ingt hestockandflowne tworkso fsyst
    emsisac ri
    ticalskil
    l
    foran ymode ms ystemsmode l
    er.

    6J
    I STOC葛 S
    (S,FLOW ,ANDAccuMULATl
    ON
    Causalloo pdi agramsa rewonde r
    fll
    jytlSef
    uli nma nys ituat
    ions,Theya rewe l
    J
    I
    sui
    tedtor e pre
    senti nte
    r depende nci
    esandf eedbac kpr ocesses.Theya reusede f
    -
    fec
    tivel
    ya tt hestartofamode li
    ngpr oj
    ecttOC aptureme ntalmod el
    s-bot hthose
    ofac l
    ientg roupa ndyo urown. Theyarea l
    souse dt oc o
    mmuni cat
    ether es
    ultsofa
    completedmode lingefo r
    t.
    Howe ve r
    ,caus alloopdi agramss uferfrom anumbe roflimitat
    ionsandc an
    easi
    lybea bused.So meoft he searediscuss
    edi nc ha pte
    r5.Oneoft hemos ti
    m
    -

    port
    a n
    tl i
    mi tat
    ionso fc aus a
    ldi agr
    amsi stheirina bil
    ityt oc a
    pturethes t
    ocka nd
    lo
    f ws tuc
    r t
    ur eofs yste
    ms .Stocksandflows ,
    alongwi thfee dback,
    a r
    ethetwoc en-
    tr
    alconc e
    pt sofd ynami cs yste
    mst heory.
    191
    1
    92 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    St ocksa r eacc umul a t


    ions.The yc ha r
    a cterizet hes ta
    teoft hes ystema ndge ner-
    atethei nf orma tionuponwhi chde cisionsa nda c ti
    onsa rebas ed･St ocksgi veS ys-
    temsi ne rti
    aa ndpr ovidet he mwi thme mor y.St oc ksc r
    eatede la
    ysbya ccumul atl
    ng
    thedif ferenc ebe t
    we ent heinf
    lowt oapr oc essa ndi t
    sout lowI
    f Byde coupl i
    ngr ates
    offlow,S tocksa ret hes ou rceofdi sequi l
    ibr i
    umdyna micsi ns ys tems .
    St ocksa ndflowsa ref ami l
    iartoa l
    lofus .Thei nve ntoryofama nuf act
    ur l
    ng
    fir
    mi sthes tockofpr oduc tini t
    swa r
    e hous es. Thenumbe rofpe opl eempl oyedby
    abus ine ssi sas toc k.Theba lancei nyourc he cki nga ccounti sas tock.St ocksa re
    alt
    e r
    edbyi nnowsa ndo ut lo
    f ws .Af i
    rm' si nve ntor ylSinc reasedbyt heflowofpr o-
    duc t
    iona ndde crea se
    dbyt heflowofs hipme nts( a
    ndpos siblyot he routlowsdue
    f
    tospoi lageors hrinka ge) .
    Thewor kforc einc rea sesvi athehi ringr ateandde creases
    viather a teofq ui t
    s ,l
    a yoffs,andr et
    ireme nts.Yourba nkba la ncei ncreaseswi thde -
    positsa ndde c r
    eas esa syo us pend･ Ye tde spltee verydaye xpe r
    ienc eofs tocksa nd
    lows
    f ,alltooof t
    e npe oplef a
    iltodi st
    ingui shc lea rl
    ybe twe ent he m･ IstheUSf ed-
    eralde ficitas t
    oc koraf low?Ma nype opl e,i nc ludingpol itici
    a nsr espons i
    blef or
    fis
    calpol icy,a r
    eunc lear .Fail
    uret oun de rstandt hedi fer e
    nc ebe twe e
    ns tocksa nd
    lowsof
    f te nl eadst ounde rest
    ima t
    ionoft imede lays ,ashort-termf ocus,a ndpol i
    c y
    resis
    ta nce.

    6.
    1.i Di
    agr
    amm垂
    ngNot
    ati
    ori苧
    orSモ
    ocksandF一
    ows
    Syst
    em dynami
    csus
    esapa
    rti
    cul
    ardi
    agr
    ammi
    ngnot
    ati
    onf
    ors
    toc
    ksa
    ndf
    lows
    (Fi
    gure6-1
    ).
    ｡ Stoc
    ksarer
    epre
    sente
    dbyr
    ect
    angl
    es(
    sugges
    ti
    ngac
    ont
    aine
    rhol
    dingt
    he
    cont
    ent
    softhest
    ock).
    ｡I
    nf
    lowsa r
    er e
    present
    edbyapi
    pe(ar
    row)poi
    nti
    ngint
    o(addingt
    o)t
    he
    st
    ock.
    OutlOwsa
    f rerepr
    esent
    edbypi
    pespoi
    nti
    ngoutof(
    subt
    ract
    ingfr
    om)
    t
    hes t
    ock.
    o Va
    lve
    scont
    rolt
    hef
    lows
    .
    ･ Cloudsr epres
    entthesourc
    esa ndsinksfortheflows･As ourc
    erepres
    ents
    thest
    oc kf r
    omwhi chaflowor lgl
    natlngOutsidetheboundaryofthemodel
    ari
    ses;sinksreprese
    ntthestoc
    ksintowhi chflOwsl e
    avlngthemode l
    bounda r
    ydr ai
    n.Sourcesandsinksa r
    ea ss
    ume dt
    oha veinfi
    nit
    ecapaci
    tyand
    canne verconstr
    ainthef
    lowsthe ysupport.
    Thestruc t
    ur eofa l
    lstockandflows tr
    ucturesiscompos e doft
    he seeleme nts
    .
    Ast heexa mpl einthefigureshows ,afi
    rm'sinventorylSaS tockthatacc
    umul at
    es
    theinf
    lowofpr oducti
    ona ndisreducedbytheout lowofs
    f hipme nts
    ･Thesea rethe
    on
    lyf lowsc onsidere
    di nthemode l:unl
    essexplicit
    lyshown,ot herpossi
    bleflows
    intooroutoft hes tock,suchasinventor
    yshrinkageo rspoilage, ar
    ea s
    sume dtobe
    ze r
    o.Thec loudsi ndica
    tethatthestockofrawma te
    rial
    sne verstar
    vesthepr oduc-
    tionrat
    ea ndt hes t
    ockofpr oductshippedtocustomersne ve rgrowss ohightha ti
    t
    blocksthes hipme ntrat
    e.
    Cha
    pte
    r6 St
    ocksa
    ndFl
    ows 1
    93

    FIGURE6 -
    1 Gener
    a一St
    ruct
    ure:
    Stockandfl
    ow
    di
    n
    agr
    ota
    amml
    t
    ion
    ng
    て
    ｢
    ∠
    _7
    二
    ゝ t
    E
    t
    b
    LSt
    o
    ck て
    ｢
    ∠
    ⊥7
    ゝ 由
    一.
    ー

    = ] st
    ock
    Key=
    > Fr
    ow

    X val
    ve(
    RowRegul
    ator
    )

    ○ Sourc
    eorSink
    (St
    ocksout
    sidemode一boundar
    y)

    Val
    vesregul
    ateamount
    / t
    IowmglnOrOut＼＼

    FI
    owofmat
    eri
    al fl
    owofmat
    eri
    al
    Outofst
    ock
    〔
    3
    Sour
    ce I
    nfl
    ow Out
    f一
    ow SI
    '
    nk

    争
    /
    ＼
    ＼ ー Nameo f /

    fI
    ow

    Examp一
    e:

    l
    n
    ve
    n
    to
    r
    y
    Pr
    oduct
    ion

    6且2 Ma的ema昔i
    ea自Repr
    esenせ
    a抽 mo甘
    St
    ocksandFlows
    Thestoc
    ka ndf
    lowdiag
    rammingconve
    nti
    ons(or
    igi
    nat
    edbyForr
    e s
    ter1961)We
    re
    base
    donahyd ra
    uli
    cme t
    aphor
    -theflOwo fwateri
    ntoandoutofr ese
    rvoi
    rs.
    Inde
    ed,iti
    shelp
    ult
    f othin
    ko fs
    toc
    ksasbatht
    ubsofwate
    r.Thequantl
    tyOfwat
    er
    194 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    i
    nyourba tht
    uba tanytlmei sthea ccumulat
    ionoft hewa t
    ernowlnglnt hr
    oughthe
    t
    a plessthewa t
    e rf
    lowi ngoutt hr oughthedrain(a ss
    umenos plas
    hingore vapora
    -
    t
    ion).Ine xact
    lythes amewa y,thequa nti
    tyofma teria
    linanystoc
    ki sthea c
    cumu-
    l
    a t
    ionoft hef
    lowso fma ter
    ialinl essthef
    lowsofma t
    eri
    alout.
    Despitetheprosai
    c
    me ta
    phort hestocka ndflOwdi a gram hasapr eci
    sea ndunambiguousma themati
    -
    calme anlng.St
    oc ksaccumul at
    eori nte at
    gr ethei
    rflows ;
    hene
    t tf
    lOwi ntothest
    ock
    i
    st hera t
    eofc hangeoft hestoc k.He ncethestruc t
    urerepr
    esent
    edi nFigure6-1
    abovec orres
    pondse xactlytothef ol
    lowlngIntegralequat
    ion:

    S
    t
    oc
    k
    (t
    )-l
    lo
    t
    I
    nlo
    f w(
    S)IO f
    low(
    S)
    ]ds+St
    o
    utck(
    to
    ) 6
    (-1
    )

    whereInf
    low(S)represe
    ntstheval
    ueoftheinf
    lowatanyti
    mesbe t
    we entheini
    ti
    al
    ti
    met oandt
    hec ur
    r entt
    imet .
    Equival
    entl
    y,t
    henetrat
    eofchangeofanys t
    ock,i
    ts
    deri
    vati
    ve,i
    stheinflowlesstheoutlow,de
    f f
    ini
    ngthedife
    renti
    alequa
    tion
    d(
    Sto
    ck)
    /dt-I
    nno
    w(t
    )IOu
    tlo
    f w(
    t)
    . (
    6-2
    )
    Ingeneral,theflowswi l
    lbef unctionsofthestockando therst
    a tevari
    ablesandpa -
    rameter
    s .Figure6-2S howsf ourequl Vale
    ntrepre
    sentat
    ionsoft hege nera
    lstockand
    nows tuc
    r ture.Theba thtubands tocka ndflOwdiagramsma ya ppeartobel e
    ssr1g-
    orousthant hei nt
    e gralordi f
    ferentialequati
    onrepresentati
    ons ,buttheya repre-
    cis
    e l
    ye qulValenta ndc onta
    ine xac t
    lythes ameinforma ti
    on･Fr om anys ystem of
    int
    egralo rdifferentialequationswec a
    nc onst
    ructthec orrespondings tockand
    lowma
    f p;f roma nys tocka ndflOwma pwec angeneratethec or
    respondingInte-
    gralordifferenti
    ale quati
    ons yste
    m.
    GURE6
    FI ･
    2 Hydr
    au一
    icMet
    aphor
    :
    Fourequl VaJ
    ent
    repr
    es entati
    ons
    ofstockand l
    月ows tru
    c tur
    e
    Each
    repr
    es entati
    on 曹

    contai
    ns ノ=
    preci
    selyt he
    Same
    inf
    ormation
    .
    St
    ockandF一
    owDi
    agr
    am:

    l
    nfl
    ow Out
    f一
    ow

    l
    ntegr
    alEquat
    ion:

    St
    ock(
    t)- llnf
    Eow(
    S)-Ou紺ow(
    S)] ock(
    ds+St t)
    o
    tt

    Di
    ff
    erent
    ialEquat
    ion:

    d(
    Stock)
    /dt-NetChangei
    nSt
    ock-J
    nfl
    ow(
    I)IOut
    fl
    ow(
    I)
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 195

    Pr
    oce
    ssPo
    int
    :No
    tat
    i
    onf
    orAc
    cumu
    lat
    i
    on
    Thetradi
    ti
    onalnot
    ationusedinc a
    lculusandshowninFigur
    e6-2isoft
    encon -

    fus
    ingtomanypeople.Int
    hisbook,Iwi l
    lgene
    ral
    lyr
    epre
    sentt
    heproc
    essofa
    ccu-
    mulat
    ionwiththeI
    NTEGRAL( )functi
    on･
    .
    St
    ock-I
    NTEGRAL(
    Inlo
    f w Ou
    tlo
    f w,
    Sto
    ckt
    ｡) (
    6-3)

    TheI NTEGRAL( )f
    unct
    ionise
    xac
    tlye
    quiva
    lentt
    oe quati
    on(6-
    1)andrepres
    ent
    s
    t
    hec onceptt
    hat
    thest
    ockacc
    umula
    tesi
    tsi
    nf
    lowslessitsout
    lows
    f ,begi
    nningWit
    h
    aniniti
    alva
    lueofSt
    ockt
    o･

    6.
    1.3 TheCont
    ribut
    ionofSt
    ockst
    oDynami
    cs
    Stoc
    ksa
    recr
    iti
    cali
    nge
    ner
    ati
    ngt
    hedyna
    micsofs
    yst
    emsf
    ort
    hef
    oll
    owl
    ngr
    eas
    ons
    (Mass1
    980)
    :

    1
    . Stoc ksC har ac ter i
    z et hestateoft hes ys t
    em andpr ovidet hebas isfor
    aetions .
    Thes t
    ocksi nas ys temt ellde ci
    sionma kerswhe retheya re,providingthem
    witht hei nf
    o rma tionne ededt oac t
    .Api l
    otmus tknowt hes t
    ateofthea irc
    raf
    t
    includingpos ition, he ading,a l
    ti
    tude ,andf uelle vel･Withoutkn owl edgeof
    theses ta
    te s
    , thepi loti sf
    lyingbl i
    nda ndwon' tsur vi
    vel ong. Likewise,a
    fir
    m ca n'tse titspr od ucti
    ons chedul eappr opriatelywi t
    ho utk
    no wledgeof
    theor derba ckl og, t
    hes t
    oc kofinve ntory,thepa r t
    sstocks ,t
    hel aborforce,
    andot hers toc ks ,Aba lances heetcha racte
    rizest hefinanc ia
    lhe lt
    a hofa
    corpor at
    ionbyr e port l
    ngt heva l
    uesofs tockss uc hasc ash,inventory,
    paya bles,andde bt. Informa ti
    ona boutt hesestoc ksa f
    fec t
    sde cisi
    onss uchas
    issulngne wde bt, payi ngdi vi
    dends ,andc ontrollinge xpens esvialayoffs.
    2. St oc kspr ovides ys t
    e mswit hi ne rti
    aandme mor y.
    St oc ksa cc umul atepa steve nt s.Thec ont entofas tockc anonl yc hange
    thr ougha ni nflowo rout low.
    f Wi thoutc ha nge si nthe sef
    lows ,t
    hepa st
    ac cumul atio nintothes toc kpe rsi
    sts.Thes toc kofl e a
    di nthepa lntOf
    Ame rica'si nnerc lt
    yhous lngr ema i
    nshi ght oda ye vent houghl eadpa intwa s
    ba nne di n1 978. 0mc ethes tockofl ea dpa lnta ccumul ated, t
    heo nlywa yto
    elimi na tei tisthroughe xpe ns i
    vede leadi ngo r血ee ventualde moliti
    onoft he
    hous lngI tself.Eve nthe nt hel eadr ema i
    ns , eithers afelys e
    que st
    eredormor e
    l
    i ke lydi spe rsedintot hee nvi ronme nta sdus t,chi ps,orle a
    dl eaching血･ om
    landf illsint owa tersuppl ies .Like wise,thes tockofoz one -destr
    oying
    chl orinege n erat
    edbyCFCswi llrema ini nt hea t
    mos phe refわrde cadese ven
    afte rt
    hepr oduc ti
    onr ateofCFCsf al
    lstoz erobe causet her at
    ea twhi ch
    c hl orinei ss crubbe df romt hes trat
    osphe rei sve rylow. Stoc ksdon'tha veto
    bet angibl e.Me mor i
    esa ndbe l
    iefsa r
    es toc kst ha tcharac t
    erizeyourme ntal
    states .Yourbe l
    iefspe rsistove rt i
    me ,ge ner atlngl nerti
    aa ndc ontinultyln
    youra tt
    it
    ude sandbe havior Jfyouha veaba de xpe ri
    enc eona na ir
    linea nd
    ne ve rflyont ha tcrr
    a iera ga i
    n, yourbe liefa boutt helowqua l
    it
    yoft he i
    r
    ser vicer ema inseve nifthe y' vei mprove d.
    196 Pa
    r IT
    tI o
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    em sTh
    ink
    ing

    3. St ocksa ret hes our ceofde lays .


    Al lde laysi nvol ves toc ks ･Ade l
    a yl Sapr oc essWhos eout putl a gsbe hindi ts
    lnPut .Thedi fe r enc ebe twe ent hei nputa ndo utputa ccumul atesi nas t
    oc kof
    ma t
    er ialinpr oc es s. The rei sal agbe twe ent het imeyouma i
    lal e tt
    e randt he
    timei tisr ece ive d. Dur ingt hi sint erva l, t
    hel et t
    e rr es i
    de sinas toc kofl ett
    e rs
    int rans i
    t. Eve ne ma ila cc umul atesi ns toc ksofunde live re dpa c ke tsa nd
    me ssage sr esidi ngi nt heme mor yofva r i
    ousc omput e rsbe twe e nt hes ende r
    andr ece i
    ve r.The rei sal agofs eve ralye ar sbe t
    we e nt hede cisiont obui l
    d
    ne wof ficebui ldingsa ndt het imet he ya rer e adyf o roc cupa ncy･ Dur ingt his
    interva lthe rei sas uppl yl i neofbui ldingsunde rde ve lopme nt,i nc ludinga
    stocko fpr opos e dpr oje ctsa ndas toc kofbui ldingsunde rc ons tuc
    r tion･
    Byde f
    ini ti
    on,whe nt hei nputt oade layc ha nge s,theout putl agsbe hind
    andc ont inue sa ttheol dr atef ors omet ime. Dur ings uc ha djus tme nts,the
    stocka ccumul atingt hedi ffe re nc ebe t we e nI nputa ndout putc ha nge s･Ifyou
    ma i
    lwe ddi ngI nvi tationst o1 000ofyourc los estf rie ndsa l
    la tonc e,whi let he
    r atea twhi chot he rma ilisde pos ite dr ema insc ons ta nt, thes toc kofl ettersin
    translt JumpSby1 000a ndr ema insa tthene wl e ve la st hel e ttersma ket heir
    wa yt ot he irde stina tions .Onl ya sthei nvi tationsbe gi nt oa rivedoe
    r sthe
    stockofl ettersi nt r ans i
    ts ta rtt of a l
    l. Thede live ryr atee xc ee dst hema ili
    ng
    r ate,S hrinki ngt hes toc kofma ilint ra ns i
    t, unt ila llt hei nvi ta ti
    onsha vebe en
    de li
    ve red,a twhi chpoi ntt hede live ryr a t
    eonc ea ga lne qua lst her atea twhi ch
    ma i
    li sde pos ite da ndt hes toc kofl ette rsi nt rans itr e t
    ur nst oi t
    sor l
    glna lleve l
    ･
    Pe r
    c eptionde la ysa l
    s oi nvol ves toc kst hought hes es toc ksdonoti nvol ve
    anyma ter i
    alflows .Fore xa mpl e, thebe liefofma na ge rsi nac ompa ny'S
    ¶l iwa nhe adqua rte rsa bo utt hes hipme ntr atef romt he irSi liconVa lleypl ant
    l agsbe hindt het rues hipme ntr a teduet ome a sur eme nta ndr epor tingde lays ･
    Me asur eme nto far ates uc ha ss hipme nt sa lwa ysi nvol vesas t
    oc k･ Duet o
    unpr e dictableva riationsi nc us tome ror de rs,pr od uc ta va ilability,a nd
    tr anspor t
    a t
    ion,S hi pme nt sc a nva rys l
    gni ficant lyf romhourt ohour ,da yt o
    da y, orove re ve nl onge rpe ri ods .Shi pme nt smus tbea c cumul a tedf orsome
    pe r i
    odoft imes uc ha sada y, we ek, Ormont ht opr ovi deame anlngf ul
    me asure me ntoft her ate. Ifs hi pme nt sa rehi ghl yvol atile,thef irmwi llha ve
    toa cc umul atet he m ove rl onge ri nte rva lstof ilteroutt hes hor Lt er mnoi sea nd
    pr ovi deame ani ngf ula ve ra gema nage r sc anus et oma kede cisions ･In
    a dd it
    iont he rea r er epor tingde laysi nvol vingas toc kofs hipme nti nforma t
    ion
    wa itl
    ngt Obeupl oa de dt oa nddownl oa de df romt hef ir m' sc omput e rsys t
    e m･
    The rema ybef ur t
    he rde laysi nt hea djus tme ntoft hee xe cut ive s' be l
    iefse ven
    a 氏e rt he ys eet hel a testda ta. Cha pte r1 1de s cribe st hes truc turea nddyna mi cs
    ofde laysi nde ta i
    l .
    4. Stocksde coupler atesoff l
    owandc re
    atedisequilibrium dyna mics｡
    Stocksabsorbt hedi ferencesbetwe eninf
    lowsa ndout l
    fows ,thuspermit
    tl
    ng
    theinf
    lowsa ndoutlowst
    f oapr ocesstodiff
    er.I
    ne quilibrium, t
    hetota
    l
    inf
    lowt oas tockequa lsitstot
    alout lows
    f ot
    hel eveloft hestockis
    unchanglng. Howe ve r
    ,inf
    lowsa ndoutlowsus
    f uall
    ydi fe rbecausetheyare
    ofte
    ngove me dbydi ferentdecis i
    onprocesses
    .Di e
    s quilibrum i
    i st
    her ul
    e
    rat
    herthant hee xc
    e ptl
    On.
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 197

    Thepr o duc t
    iono fgr ainde pe ndso nt heye arlyc yc l
    eofpl antlnga nd
    harve st,alongwi t
    hunpr e dictabl ena turalva riati
    o nsi nwe a the r,pe st
    popul ations, ands oo n. Cons umpt l
    OnO fg rainde pe ndso nhowma nymo uths
    therea ret ofe ed. Thed iffer e
    nc ebe twe eng rainp r od uctiona ndc ons umpt ion
    ratesa ccumu latesing rains t
    o cks ,Stor
    e dt hrou gho utt hed istribut ions ystem
    fromf ie ldtogr ainele vato rtopr oce ss
    o rinv en t
    or iest oma rke ttoki tche n
    cupboa rd.Wi tho utas t ocko fg raint obuf fert hedi f ferenc esbe t
    we en
    produc tiona n dc onsu mpt ion, CO nSumpt lO nWO uldne cessa rilye qua l
    produc tiona ta lltime sa ndpe opl ewo u l
    ds t
    arv ebe twe enha r ve sts. Thus
    Josepha d vi
    se dPha r
    a oht os tockpi l
    eg r aind uringt he7goodye arsi n
    anticl
    pa t
    iono ft he7l ea nye arsd u r
    ingwhi c
    hc ons umpt lOnWO ul de xce ed
    harve sts.Whi l eo na ve raget hepr oduc ti
    o no fg ra inba lanc e sc ons umpt lOn
    (andl os ses)asf a r
    me rsr e spo ndt oma rke tpric esa ndi nve nto ryc ondi tions
    inde termi ningho wmuc ht opl ant ,anda sco nsume rsa djus tc o nsumpt ion
    inrespons etopr lCeSa nda va il
    abi li
    ty,p roduc tiona ndc o ns umpt l Ona re
    rarel
    ye qua l.
    Whe ne vert woc oupl eda ctiviti
    e sarec ontrolledbyd i
    fe re ntde cision
    ma kers ,invo l
    vedi ff
    e rentr e sourc es,anda res ubje ctt odi ffer entr a ndo m
    shocks ,ab ufe ro rstoc kbe t
    we ent he mmus te xist, accu mul atingt he
    diff
    ere nc e.Ast he ses tocksva r
    y ,informa t
    iona bo utt hes izeoft hebuf f er
    willfe edba c ki nva riouswa yst oi nlue
    f nc ethei nf
    lo wsa ndo utlows
    f .Of t
    en,
    butno ta lwa ys ,thesef e edba ckswi llope ra t
    et obr ingt hes t oc ki ntoba lance･
    Whe the ra ndho we qui l
    ibr iumi sa chieve dc anno tbea ssume dbuti san
    eme rgentpr ope r
    tyo ft hewho l
    es ystema sitsma nyf ee dba ckl oo psi nte r
    act
    simulta neous ly.Unde rs t
    and i
    ngt hena turea nds tabi li
    tyo ft he s edyna mi cs
    isoftent hepu rpos eo fas ys t
    e md yna mi csmod el.

    6d
    2 日
    der
    酬 y百
    mgSt
    ocksand『日
    ⑳ws
    Thedi stinctionbe twe ens tocksa ndflowsi sre cogniz edi nma nydi sciplines.
    Ta ble61 ls howss o mec ommo nt ermsus edt od ist
    ing uishbe twe ens toc ksa nd
    lowsi
    f nva r i
    o usf i
    e lds.I
    nma thema t
    ics,sys t
    e md yna ic
    m s,controlthe ory,a ndr e -

    latede nglne e
    r ingd isci
    plines,stocksa rea l
    s ok
    nO wna sint egralsors tat evar iables･
    Flo wsa r
    ea l
    soknowna srateso rder i
    vat i
    ve .Che
    s mistss peako f7 1eaC t
    ant Sa nd
    reac ti
    onpr oduc ts( t
    hes tocks )andr eactionr ates( t
    hemows ).Inma nufac t
    ur i
    ng
    setings
    t ,s t
    oc ksa ndf lowsa rea l
    s oc al
    ledbu Hersa ndt hrough put.I ne conomi cs,
    stocksa rea lsok no wna slevelsa ndflOwsa sr ates.Fore xa mple,thec apit
    a lstock
    ofa ne c onomyi si tslevelofwe alth(me asuredin,s ay,do llar
    s)whi let heGDPi s
    thea gg regater ateo fna t
    ionalout put(me asuredinS /yea r)
    . Inaccount ing, ba l
    ance
    she etitemsa r estoc ks,sucha sc ash,thebo okva lueo fi nventory,lo ng- termde bt,
    ands harehold ere quity(allme a s
    u redin,e .g･,doll
    a rs
    ).Itemsa ppeari ngont hein-
    co mes t
    ateme nto rno wo ffundsr eporta reflOwswhi c ha lt
    erthec o rrespo nding
    stockso ntheba lances heet,sucha snetrec el
    ptS,thec ostofgo odss ol d,long- term
    bo rr
    owi ng,a ndt hec hangei nr e tai
    ne de arnlngS.The s eflowsa reme asuredi n
    S/yea r.Phys iologica lmo delso ft
    e nlumpdi ferents t
    ocksi ntoas ma llnumbe rof
    compar tmentso rboxe sc onne ct
    edbydi f
    fusionr at
    e s(t
    hef l
    ows ).Fo re xa mpl e,the
    stocko fgluc osei nahuma nc anber e presentedbyat hreec ompa r tme ntmode l:
    198 P
    art
    IIT
    わol
    sfo
    rSy
    ste
    msTh
    ink
    ing

    TABLE6･
    l
    Fi
    eld St
    ocks Fl
    ows
    Terminologyused
    todisti
    nguish Mat
    h m
    e atic
    s,p h
    yscs
    i l
    n t
    egrals,st
    ates,stat
    e Der
    ivaive
    s
    t,raes
    t of
    betweens tocks de
    an n l
    ge
    nerl
    ng vari
    ables,stocks cha ge,f
    n l
    ows
    andf一owsi n Reac t
    an t
    sandr eacti
    on Re
    ac t nrat
    es
    dif
    fer
    en t Chemistry io

    p｢oducts
    dis
    cIPIE
    neS
    M anu
    fac
    tu rl
    ng Buff
    ers,inventori
    es Throughpu t
    Economi
    cs Levels Rates
    Ac
    coun
    ti
    ng Stocks,balancesheet FE
    ows, cashfiowor
    i
    tems i
    ncomes t
    atemen t
    i
    tems
    Biog
    ol y,p
    hy o
    si l
    o gy Compar
    tment
    s Dif
    fusi
    onr at
    es, f
    lows
    Medi
    ci
    ne, Pr
    eval
    ence,r
    eser
    voi
    rs I
    ncidence,infect
    ion,
    epi
    demiol o gy morbidi
    tyand
    mortali
    t
    yr ates

    gluc osei nt hedi gestives ys tem, gluc os ei nthebl oods t


    rea m,a ndgl ucoseint hein-
    tracellula rma t
    r ix･Ine pide mi ology, pr ev alenc eme asure sthenumbe rors t
    ockof
    peo plewhoha veapa rti
    c ularc ondi tiona ta nygi vent i
    me,whi l
    ei ncidencei sthe
    ratea twhi chpe o plec omedownwi tht hedi s e
    a seorc ondi t
    ion. I
    nDe cembe r1 998
    thepr eva lenc eofHI V/AI DSwor ldwi dewa ses t
    ima t
    e dbyt heUni tedNa t
    ions
    AI DSpr ogr amt obe33. 4mi ll
    iona ndt hei nc i
    de nceofHI Vi nfT
    ecti
    onwa sestima t
    ed
    tobe5. 8mi llioIVye a r.Tha tis,at ota lof33. 4mi lli
    onpe o plewe ree st
    ima t
    e dtobe
    HI Vpos itiveo rt oha veAI DS;t her a teofa ddi t
    iontot hi sstockwa s5.8mi l
    lion
    peopl epe rye ar( 16,
    000ne wi nf ecti
    onspe rday) IThene tc hangei nthepo pul a
    tion
    ofHI Vpos itivei ndi vidua lswa se s
    tima tedt obe3. 3mi l
    lionpe opl eperye arduet o
    thedea thr atef romA l Ds, estima tedt obe2･ 5mi lli
    onpe oplepe rye a
    ri n1998.
    Howc anyout el
    lwhi chc onc e
    pt sa r es t
    oc ksa ndwhi cha ref
    lows ?Stoc ksare
    quant it
    iesofma teri
    a lorot hera c c
    umul ations .The ya r
    et hes tatesoft hes ystem.
    Thef lOwsa ret her a
    te satwhi c hthes es ys tems ta
    tescha nge. Ima glnear i
    ve rf
    low
    -

    ingi ntoar ese rvoi r.Thequa ntit


    yofwa teri nther eservoirisas t
    oc k(me asuredin,
    say,c ubicme ters ).Ifyoudr ewa nima g ina r
    yl inea cr
    osst hepoi ntwhe r
    ether iver
    enterst her ese rvoi r,theflOwi st her atea twhi chwa te
    rpa ssestheline-t her at
    eof
    lowi
    f nc ubicme terspe rs ec ond.

    6 .
    2.1 Uni
    tsofMeasur
    einSt
    ockandFl
    ow Net
    wor
    ks
    Theuni tsofme asurec anhe lpyo udi s t
    inguishs t
    oc ksfrom flows .Stocksa re
    usuallyaqua nt
    ltyS uchaswi dge t
    sofi nve nt
    or y,peopleempl oyed,orYe nina n
    account.Thea s
    sociatedf
    lOwsmus tbeme asuredinthes ameuni t
    s pertimepe ri
    od,
    forexampl e,ther a
    tea twhi chwi dgetsarea dde dperwe ektoinve ntor
    y ,t
    hehiring
    rat
    einpe oplepe rmont h,o rther ateofe xpenditurefr
    oma naccounti n¥ノhour.No t
    e
    thatthechoiceoft imepe riodi sarbit
    r a
    ry･Youa re氏.eetose l
    ectanyme asure
    me nt
    syste
    myoul ikea slonga syour ema i
    nc ons i
    stent.Youc anme asuretheflowofpr o-
    ducti
    oni nt
    oi nve nt
    or yaswi dge t
    spe rwe ek,wi dgetspe rday,orwi dgetsperhour .
    Thes tat
    eme ntHThec urr
    e ntr a
    t eofpr oductioni s1200wi dgetsperda yHisexa c
    tly
    Cha
    pte
    r6 St
    ock
    sandFl
    ows 199

    equl
    Va lentto山es ta
    teme ntthatproductio
    ni sproceedingatarateof8 400widge t
    s
    perwe ek,50wi dget
    spe rho ur
    ,5/6wi dget
    spe rminute,oreven43,800,000widge t
    s
    percentu r
    y.Allarestat
    e me nt
    sabo uthowma nywi dgetsarebeingproducedright
    now-att hisin
    stant.Whe thert
    hec umulat
    ivenu mbe rofwidgetsproducedina ny
    glVe
    ni nteⅣa ls
    ucha sada y,week, orcent
    uryl Sequalto1200,8400,or43 ,
    800,
    0 00
    dependso nwhe therthec urre
    ntrates t
    aysco nst
    antove rt
    hatinter
    val( o
    raverages
    outtothec urre
    ntrate).
    Mos tli
    kelyitwo n't
    .

    6.
    2.2 Tht
    T
    tSnapshotTest
    St oc ksc ha racterizet hes tateoft hes ys tem.Toi de ntifyke ys toc ksi nas ys tem,
    ima ginef ree zin gt hes cenewi thas na ps hot .St ockswo uldbet hos et hi ngsyo u
    co uldc ounto rme asu rei nt hepi c t
    ur e, i
    nc lud ingps yc holog lCa lstate sa ndo t
    he rin-
    tangi bl eva riab l
    e s.Youc a ne stima tet hes tocko fwa teri nar eservoi rf ro m as e
    t
    o fs atellitei ma gesa ndt opo gra ph icda ta,butyouc annotde termi newhe thert he
    wa terl eve lisr isingO rf alling. Yo u rba nks ta t
    e me ntt ellsyo uhowmuc hmo ne ylS
    inyo u ra c countb utnott her at ea twhi c hy o ua res pe ndingl tnow. Iftimes t
    oppe d,
    itwo ul dbepos si
    bl et ode te rmi neho wmu chi nv entor yac o
    mpa nyha so rt hep rice
    o fma ter ialsbutno tt hene tr a teo fc ha ngei ni nve nt or
    yo rt her ateo fi nf
    la tioni n
    ma terialspr lCe S.Thes naps hott e sta ppl iesa l
    s otol esst angibl es toc ks ･Thepl ant
    ma na ger 'Sex pe ctationo fthec usto me ro rde rratea ta nyI ns t
    antO rpe rC eptlO nO fthe
    sizeo fi nve nt orya res t
    o cks , eve nt ho ug ht he ya r
    eme nta landnotphys ica lstocks .
    As na ps ho to fpe opl e'sme nt a ls tates, ho we ve r,doe snoti ndi ca t
    eho wf astt heya re
    rev ISlngt heirbe l
    ief s.
    Fi gur e61 3l istss omec ommo nc onc ept sa ndi de ntifi
    e sthe ma ss toc kso rf l
    o ws ,
    sho wi ngt he irs t
    oc ka ndflows truc turea ndun itso fme a sure･ Po pul ation, Empl oy-
    ee s,a ndDe bta res tra i
    g htf orwa rd. Whyi st hepr lCeOfapr oduc tas t
    oc k?Pr ices
    cha ra cterizet hes tateoft hes ys tem, int hi sc asehowmuc hyo umus tpa ype ru nit.
    Ap ric epos tedo na ni t
    e mr ema insi ne fe ctu ntiliti sc ha nge d,jus ta st henu mbe r
    ofwi dge tsi na ninve nto ryr e ma insc o ns tantunt ili tisc hange dbyaf lo wo fpr o-
    duc t
    io no rs hipme nt s.Eve nt hebi dsa ndo fe rsc alledo utinat rad i
    ngpl ta taf i
    -
    na nc ialma rke ta res toc ks ,a lbe its ho ve
    r t - dol nes
    i ･
    .abi do rof ferr ema insi ne fe c
    t
    unt ilthet rade rwi 山d rawso ra t
    l ersi tbyc r yingO uta nOthe r･
    Whyi sthee xpe cte dc us tome ro rderr a tefo rapr oduc tas toc k?Cl e arl
    y ,hea
    t c-
    tua lc us tome ro rde rr atei sanow. Thef lO wo fc ust ome ro rde rsa ccumul a t
    esi na
    ba ckl ogo rs toc ko funf ill
    e do rde rsun tilthepr o duc tc anbed elive r
    e d. Ho we ve r,a
    ma na ger 'sbe liefa bo utt her atea twhi chc ustome ro rder sa r
    eboo kedi sas to ck-1 t
    isas tateo ft hes ys tem,i nt hi sc a seame nta lstate.Noo nek nowst het ruec urrent
    orf ut ureo rde rr at
    e. Tlhema na ge r'sbe l
    ie fa bo uto rde rsc an,a ndus ua llyC L
    O eS, dif
    -
    ferf ro mt het rueo rde rr ate( thebe liefc anbewr o ng) .Ma nage rs' be l
    ief sabo utt he
    cus tome ro rde rr atewi llte ndt or ema int hes ameun ti
    lthe ybe co mea wa reo fne w
    info rma tiona ndu pda t
    et he irbe lie fs.TheCha ngei nEx pe ctedOr derRa t eist he
    ratea twhi cht heb e l
    ie fisu pda ted. Not et heuni t
    sofme a suref ort hee xpe ctedo r
    -
    de rr ate. Liket hea c tualo r de rr ate ,thee xp ec t
    e do rde rra teisme asure di nwi d ge t
    s
    pe rtimepe riod( saywe eks ).Theuni tso fme asur ef b∫ther atea twhi c ht heb el
    ief
    abo utc us tome ro rder sisu pda te da re( wid ge ts/we ek) /
    we e k
    200 Pa
    rtH To
    olsf
    orSys
    temsTh
    ink
    ing

    GURE6-
    3
    Ft
    Exampl esof
    て
    ｢7 由一 .
    ー Popuat
    一 i
    on て
    ｢7 血
    ,
    ..
    _
    stocksandf lows
    withtheiruni tsof
    peopl
    ( e/
    year
    )
    measur e
    Thech oiceoft ime
    unitforthef l
    ows
    (e.g.
    , days, week s,
    years)isar bitrar
    y
    bu tmu stbe
    consisten twithina
    slngl
    emodel .

    Borr
    owing Repayment
    (/
    Syear
    ) (
    S/year
    )

    RateofPr
    ice
    (
    S/ t
    )
    uni
    Change
    (
    S/unWyear
    )

    Expected
    Customer1
    0rders
    Changein
    (
    widget
    s/week
    )
    Expect
    ed
    Or
    derRate
    (
    wI'
    dget
    s/weeJ
    dweek
    )

    NotethattherateofprlCeChangea ndthechangeintheexpectedorderrat
    ec a
    n
    beposit
    iveorne gat
    ive(pr
    icesandde ma ndforeca
    s t
    scanri
    seorfall
    )AAnyflowi nt
    o
    oroutofas toc kcanbee i
    therpos i
    ti
    veorne gat
    ive｡Thedirect
    ionoft hearrow
    (poi
    nti
    ngintoo routofas t
    ock)definesthesignconventi
    onforthef
    low. Aninflow
    addstothest
    oc kwhe nthef
    lowi spos i
    tive;i
    ftheflowisnegati
    veitsubtr
    a c
    tsfrom
    thest
    ock.Whe ntheo utlowi
    f spositi
    ve,thef
    lows ubt
    rac
    tsfr
    omt hestock.
    Ch
    ape
    t r6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 201

    !
    dent
    if
    yingSt
    ocksandF!
    ows
    Arethefoll
    owingco
    ncept
    sSt
    ockso
    rflows
    ?Dr
    awas
    toc
    kandf
    lowma
    pfore
    ach
    andgivethei
    runi
    tsofmea
    sur
    e.

    1
    .I nt
    ere
    stra
    te(
    e.g.
    ,thepr
    imei
    nte
    res
    tra
    teorr
    at he30-
    eont yea
    rUSTr
    eas
    ury
    bond).
    2.Une
    mpl
    oyme
    ntr
    ate.
    Hi
    nt:Wha
    tdoe
    sthewo
    rd"
    rat
    e"me
    ani
    nthes
    ese
    tti
    ngs
    ?

    6.
    2.3 Conser
    vat
    ionofMat
    eri
    a一i
    n
    St
    ockandFlowNetwor
    ks
    Ama jorS t
    r engt hoft hes toc ka ndnowr e pres ent ationi sthec le ardi st
    inc tionbe -
    twe e nthephys icalflowst hr ought hes toc ka ndf lOwne twor ka ndt hei nf or ma tion
    fee dba ckst ha tc ou pl ethes toc kst ot hemowsa ndc losethel oo psi nthes ys te m. The
    cont entsoft hes t
    oc ka ndf lOwne two rksa r ec ons e rve di nt hes enset hati te mse n-
    terlngaS toc kr emaint hereunt ilthe yf lowout .Whe na ni temf lowsf romones toc k
    toa not he rthef irsts toc klos e spr ec iselya smuc ha st hes econdga ins. Cons idert he
    stoc ka ndf lOws tr uc t
    ur er e pre sentingt hea c count sr ece i
    va bl eofaf i
    rm( Figur e
    6-4) ･Thes toc ko fr ece i
    va ble si sinc re asedbybi llingsa ndde cr easedbypa yme nts
    rec eiveda ndbyde f aults.Thef lOwofbi ll
    ingsi sc ons erve di nthes ens etha tonc ea
    cus tome ri sbi l
    led, thei nvo ic er ema i
    IISi nthes toc kofr e ceiva ble sunt i
    lite xplic i
    tly
    lowsoutwhe
    f nt her ec ei
    va bl esde pa rtme ntr e cor dst hec usto me r'
    spa yme ntora c-
    knowl edgest ha t t
    hec ustome rha sde faul t
    eda ndwr itesof ft hea ccount .Inc ontr ast
    ,
    infわr ma tiona boutt hes toc kofr e ceiva blesi snotc ons erve d.Thec orpo r at
    ea c-
    Count lngS yst em ma kest heva lueof也er ece iva bless toc ka vailablet oma ny
    hr
    t oughoutt heo rga niz at
    ion. Ac c esslnga ndus ingt hisi nfor ma tiondoe snotus eit
    upo rma kei tuna va ilablet oot her s.
    Not ea ls ot hatwhi let heuni tsofa ccount spa ya bl ea redol larsa nd也ebュ lling,
    pa yme nt ,andde fa ultmowsa r eme asur edi ndol la rspe rt imepe r iod,thec ont entsof
    血es tocka renota c tua l
    lydo llars. Ra the r,thec ont entoft her eceiva bless toc ki si n-
    forma ti
    on,s pe cific ally,al e dge ro rda taba sec ons istlngOfr eco rdso fi nvoi c esout -
    standi ng. Tos e ewhy , ima ginet ryingt Oe xc ha ngeyourf i
    rm' ss tockofr ec eiva bles
    forc a s
    h-youc ans ellthemt oac olle ctiona ge nc y, butonl yf o rmuc hl esst ha n1 00
    cerltSOn払edol lar. Thought hec ont e ntsoft hes toc kofr ec eiva blesi sinf or ma ti
    on
    andnotama te r
    ialqua ntity,l tisne ve rtheles sc ons erve d-youc annots e llagl Ve n
    stoc kofr ece ivabl esmo ret ha no nc e( notl e ga l
    ly, a nywa y) .Stoc ksc anr e
    pr e senti n-
    forma t
    iona swe lla smor et a ng
    ibl equa ntitiess uc ha spe opl e, mone y,a ndma te ri
    -
    als.St ocksc ana lsor e pres enti nta ngi bleva riabl esi nc ludingps ychol ogic a lstates,
    per ceptlOnS , ande xpe ctationss uc ha se mpl oye emo rale,thee x pe ct
    edr a
    t eofi nf
    la -
    ti
    on,orpe rceive di nve ntor y.
    202 Pa
    rtIT
    I o
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    em sTh
    ink
    ing

    FlGURE6- 4
    Stockandf low
    str
    u ctureof
    accoun ts
    receivabl e
    Thema terial fF
    ow-
    lngthrought he
    networ ki sac tuaHy
    inf
    ormat i
    onabou t
    customer sandt he
    amoun tst he yowe,
    Thisin format i
    oni s
    conser ved -t he
    onlywayar ecei
    - v
    able,Onc ebi lled,
    i
    sr emovedf rom
    thes t
    ocki si fthe
    customerpaysor
    defaultsJn for ma-
    ti
    onabou tthesi ze 6.
    2.堵 S竜
    aモe-
    Deモ
    ermi
    medSysを
    ems
    andcomposi tionof
    Thet heoryofdyna mi cs yst
    emst akesas tate-dete
    rmine ds ys t
    em ors tateva ria bl
    e
    accoun t
    spayab一 e,
    howev er,canbe appr oac h.Theonl ywa yas t
    oc kcanc hangei svi ait
    sinflowsa ndout lows
    f .Int um,
    madeavai labl e hes
    t tocksde t
    ermi net heflows( Fig ure6-5).
    thr
    oughou tthe Sys temst he r
    e foreco nsi
    stofne tworksofs tocksa ndflowsl inkedbyi nf o r
    ma -
    systeman di s ti
    onf eedba cksfromt hes t
    ockst other at
    es( Figure6-6) .Ass howni nthef igur e,the
    notdepl et edb y de t
    emi na ntsofrate sincludea nyc onsta
    ntsa nde xogeno usva riables･Thes et ooa r
    e
    uSage･ stocks .Cons t
    antsa res ta
    teva ria
    ble sthatcha nges oslowl yt heya rec ons i
    de redt o
    bec ons tantove rthet imehor izonofi nteres
    tint hemode l.Exoge nousva riablesa r
    e
    stocksyouha vec hos ennott omode lexplicit
    lya ndaret her eforeout si
    det hemode l
    bounda ry. Forexa mpl e,inamode lofthede ma ndforane wvi deoga me,t hes iz
    e
    ofthepot e nti
    alma rketmi ghtde pe ndont hepo pul a
    tionbe t
    we e n,say,a ges4a nd
    20･ Thepr oductlifec yc l
    ewi lllastaf ewye arsa tmos t.Ove rthi sti
    mehor iz ont he
    popul ationbe twe en4a nd20ye rsofa
    a gei snotl i
    kelyt oc hanges i
    gnificant lya nd
    canr e asona bl
    ybea ssume dc onstant.Alternati
    ve l
    y,youc oul dmode lthes toc kof
    childreni nt het argeta gegroupasa nexoge no usva r
    iabl e,us lngC e
    ns usda taa nd
    prqe c t
    ionst oes t
    ima t
    ei t
    sva l
    ues .Ma kingpo pul at
    ionc ons tantore xoge nousi sa c-
    ceptabl einthisc ases incetherea r
    enos i
    gnif i
    cantfeedba cksbe twe ens alesofvi deo
    game sa ndbi r
    th,de a t
    h,ormi gr at
    ionr at
    es.

    6.
    2,5 Aux百
    日岳
    aFyVar
    iab日
    es
    Asi ll
    ust
    r a
    tedinFigure6ェ6,ma t
    hema ti
    caldescrlptl
    OnOfas yst
    emr e
    qulreSOnlythe
    stocksandt heirra
    tesofchange.Fore aseofc ommuni cati
    ona ndc l
    ari
    ty,howe ver
    ,
    itisoft
    enhe lpfultodefi
    neinter
    me diat
    eorau xiliar
    yV ar
    iables.Auxili
    ariesconsis
    t
    offunctionsofs t
    ocks(andconstantsorexogenousi nput
    s)･Fore xample,apopula-
    tionmode lmi ghtrepres
    entthene tbir
    thratea sdependingonpopul a
    tiona ndthe
    fract
    ionalbirthrate;f
    ract
    ionalbirthrat
    eint urnc anbemode le
    da saf unctionof
    foodpe rcaplta.Theleftsi
    deofFi gure617S howst hestruct
    urea ndequa t
    ionsfor
    Ch
    ape
    tr6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 20
    3

    FIGURE6 -5
    Stat
    e-determined
    syst
    ems
    Systemse volve
    byfeedbac ko f
    i
    n f
    ormati
    onf rom
    t
    h estat
    eo fthe
    syst
    emt othe
    f
    lowsthatalter 賢 √ - / l 畢
    t
    hes tat
    es.
    iS璽『璽5
    t
    Lef:Cau
    saHoop
    repres en t
    a t
    ionin L. ＼＼ - / l ⊥ _
    whicht hes tock
    andf low St ateott heSy s tem≡l NTEGRAL( NetRa teofChange･ St a teoft heSyst emt ｡)
    structurei sno t
    expH dt. NetRa teofChange= i(St ateof的eSys tem)
    Right:Ex pll
    Cit
    stockan df 一
    ow
    structuref orthe
    samef eedbac k
    themode l.TheNe tBi rthRa t
    ea c cumul a tesi nt hePo pulatio ns toc k. Thea uxiliary
    l
    oop.
    variable sFr acti
    o na lBi rthRa tea ndFoodpe rCa pitaa rene ithers toc ksno rflows .
    Theequ ati
    on s The ya ref unc ti
    onso ft hes tocks( ande xoge no usi nput s
    , i
    nt hisc a seFood ) .Popu-
    corres pon dtothe l at
    ionpa rti
    cipatesi nt wof ee dba ckl oo ps :apos iti
    vel oo p( mo repe opl e,mo re
    stockan df l
    ow
    birt
    hs ,mo repe ople )andane ga t
    ivel oo p( mo repe opl e,lessf oo dpe rpe rson, lowe r
    map. Then et
    fract
    io na
    lne tbirt
    hr a
    te , f
    ewe rbi rths). Thei nc lusionoft hea uxi l
    ia ryva riable sdi s
    -
    rateo fc hange
    ofthes tocki sa tlnguish es t
    h e t
    w o loop s and allow su na m b i
    g uo us asslgnme n tO flinka nd loo pp o
    -

    f
    un cti
    ono fthe 1ari
    ti
    e s.
    stocki t
    s el
    f, Thea uxilia
    rie sc ana lwaysbee li
    mi na teda ndt hemod e lr ed uce dtoas etof
    closlngt he equa ti
    o nsc o nsist
    ingO n
    lyofs t
    oc ksa ndt he irf
    lows ･Bys ubs titutingt hee qua t
    ion
    f
    eedba c kloop. forFoodpe rCa pitain tot hee qua tionf o rFr a ctiona lBi r
    thRa tea ndt he ns ubs it
    t utl
    lngt her esultintothee q uatio
    nf orNe tBi rh Ra
    t t
    e ,yo uc ane limi natethea u xiliar
    ie s
    ,
    r educ i
    ngt hemo de ltoo newi tho nl yNe tBi rthRa tea ndPo pul ation. Ther ights ide
    ofFi gu re6- 7s howst hismode landi tse q uations .Tho ught hemo d elisma thema t
    -
    ical
    lye qulVa lenttot hemode lwi tha uxi liaries, itisha rdert oe xpl ain,und ersta
    nd,
    andmodi fy.No tetha tint her educ e dfo rmmode lpo pulatione nterst hee qua tionf or
    ther ateo fc han geo fpo pulationi nbo tht henume ratora ndde no mina to r
    .The
    po larlt
    yO ft hec aus allin kbe twe e nPo pul atio na ndNe tBi r t
    hsi snowa mbi guous ,
    andi tisnotpos siblet odi st
    ingui sht het wof eedba ckl oo psi nvo lvingpo pul at
    ion
    a ndbi rths .
    Thepr ocesso fc rea tl
    ngt her e duc edf ormmode lbys u bs ti
    tutiono fint erme d i
    -
    a teva riablesi ntothe irr atesisage nera lo nea ndc anbec a血e do uto na nymode l
    .
    Ho we ve r,theus eofa uxi l
    iaryva riable si sc riticalt oe f
    fe ctivemode li
    ng.I de a
    lly,
    e ache q ua ti
    oni nyo urmode l
    ss houl dr epr ese nto nema ini de a .Do n' ttrytoe cono-
    mi zeo nt henumbe rofe qua t
    ionsbywr ltlngl ongo nest ha te mbe dmul tiplec on-
    c epts･The sel onge qua tionswi l
    lbeha rdl bro therst ore ada ndu nde rstand. The y
    wi llbeha rdf oryout ounde rstand.Fi na lly,e qua ti
    o nswi thmul t
    ipl ec ompone nts
    a ndi de asa reha rdt oc ha ngei fyo urc l
    ie ntdi s agreeswi t
    ho neo ft hei deas .
    204 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    ste
    msTh
    ink
    ing

    GURE6
    F】 -
    6 Networ ksofstocksandf l
    owsar ecoupledbyi n
    formati
    onfeedback .

    Stock saccumul atet hei


    rratesoffl
    ow;i n
    formati
    onabou tthestocksfeedsbacktoalt
    ert her ates,
    closlngtheloopsi nt hes ys
    tem. Constantsarestockschanglngtooslowlytobemodel edexpl l
    Ci
    tl
    y;
    ex ogenousvar iablesar est
    oc ksoutsi
    dethemodel boundary(shownbyt herect
    angl
    ewi throunded
    cor ners)
    .
    Equat ionrepresen tati
    on:Theder i
    vati
    vesofthes tocksi
    ndyn amicsystemsare,ingener al,nonli
    near
    fun ct
    ionsofthes toc ks,t
    heex ogenousvar i
    abl
    es,andanyc onst
    ants.lnmatri
    xnotat
    ion, theratesof
    changedS/ dtareaf uncti
    onf (
    )oHhes t
    atevectorS,theexogenou svari
    ablesUandt hecon stant
    sC:
    dS/
    dt-i
    (S,U,C) (
    6-4)

    Fort
    hedi
    agr
    amb
    elow,
    theequat
    i
    onf
    ort
    her
    ateofchangeo
    fS4i
    s
    dS4
    /dt-f
    4(
    S3,
    S4,U3
    ,C3
    ) (
    6-5)

    Exogenous
    lnput
    l

    Ex
    ogenous
    l
    n put2

    Ex
    oge un
    o
    s
    l
    n put
    3

    62.
    6 St
    . ocksChangeOn!
    yThr
    軌唱h■
    ri
    lei
    rRat
    es
    St ocksc ha ngeonl yt hrought heirratesofflow･ The r
    eca nbenoca usalli
    nkdirec t
    ly
    intoas toc k.Cons ideramode lforcustome rservice.Custome rsa汀ivea tsomer ate
    anda ccumul a
    tei naque ueofCus tome rsAwa iti
    ngSe rvice.Theque uecouldbea
    linea taf astfoodr esta
    ur ant,Carsawa it
    lngr e
    pa lratabodys hop, Orpe opl
    eonhol d
    ca ll
    ingf ora irl
    iner eserva t
    ions,Whe nt hes erviceisc ompletedc us t
    ome rsdepart
    fromt heque ue,de creas l
    ngt hestockofc ust
    ome r
    swa iti
    ngf orservice･Ther ateat
    whi chc us tome rsca nbepr ocessedde pendsont henumbe rofs ervicepersonne l
    ,
    the i
    rpr oduc t
    ivit
    y( incus tome rsprocessedpe rhourpe rperson),andt henumbe rof
    hour st he ywor k( thewor kwe ek).Ift henumbe rofpe oplewa i
    tingf o
    rs ervice
    inc r
    ea ses ,e mploye esi ncreasethe i
    rwor kwe eka stheys taya ne xtrashift
    ,s kip
    lunc h,o rc utdownonbr eaks.
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 205

    FIGURE6-7 Auxil
    i
    aryvar
    i
    ables
    Left
    :Asi
    mplepopul
    ati
    onmodel wi
    thauxi
    lf
    aryVar
    i
    ables.Fr
    act
    i
    on al
    Bir
    thRat
    eandFoodperCapi
    t
    aar
    e
    neit
    hers
    tock
    snorfl
    ows,buti
    ntermedi
    ateconc
    eptsaddedtothemodelt
    oaidcl
    ari
    t
    y .

    F
    7ght
    i :Thesamemodel
    wit
    hth
    eau
    xil
    i
    aryvar
    iabl
    esel
    i
    minat
    edbysubs
    ti
    tu
    tioni
    nt
    other
    ateequat
    ion.
    TheJ
    i
    nkf
    rom Popul
    ati
    ont
    oNe tBi
    r
    thRat
    enowhasanambi
    guoussF
    gn,
    apoorPr
    act
    ice.
    Corr
    ect l
    ncorr
    ect

    ･
    もし /
    /5' -
    Food

    Popul
    ati
    on-I NTEGRAL(NetBl
    rthRat
    e,Popu
    lat
    i
    ont
    ｡
    ) Po
    pu 一
    at
    ion-lNTEGRAL(Ne
    tBi
    rt
    hRate,Popu
    lat
    i
    ont
    ｡
    )
    NetBi
    rt
    hRa t
    e-Pop u
    lat
    i
    on'Fr act
    i
    ona=∋i
    r
    thRat
    e NetBi
    rt
    hRate-Po p
    ula
    ti
    on'f(
    Food
    /Popul
    at
    ion)
    Fr
    acti
    onalBi
    rt
    hRa t
    e-i Foodp
    ( erCapi
    t
    a)
    FoodperCapi
    ta-F ood/
    Popu一a
    ti
    o n

    Iha veof tens eenpe o plei nwor kshopsdr awt hedi agrams howni nt het opof
    Figur e6- 8. The yc oITe Ctlyre cognl Zethatt heratea twhi chc ustome rsa repr oc essed
    isthepr oduc tofSe rviceSt aff,Pr oductivlty,andWo rkwe eka ndt ha thi ghe rque ues
    ofwa i
    tlngC ustome rsl ea dt ol onge rhour sa ndhi ringofa ddi t
    iona ls t
    a ff
    ,f orml ng
    twoba lanc l
    ngf eedba cks .Butof tenpe opl edr awi nforma tionf e edba cksdi r
    ec t
    ly
    from t hewo rkwe eka nds ervices taft ot hes t
    oc kofCus t
    ome rsAwa it
    l ngSe r
    vic e,
    asslgnl ngt he m ane ga t
    ivepol a rit
    y.The yr e
    asont ha ta ni ncreas eint hewor kwe ek
    ors taffleve lde creasest henumbe rofc us tome rsrema inlngi ntheque ue, thusc los -
    ingt hene ga ti
    vef eedba ckl oops .
    Thec orrec tdiagr ami ss howni nthel owe rpa ne lofFi gur e6% Theonl ywa y
    cus t
    ome rsc ane xitt hes tocki svi athede parturer ate.Thede pa rturer a t
    ei st he
    produc toft henu mbe rofs taff, he
    t i
    rwor kwe ek, a
    ndt he i
    rpr oduc tivity. Ani ncrease
    ina nyoft heseI nput sboos tst her ateatwhi chc ustome rsa repr oc es seda ndl ea ve
    theq ueue.Theba lanc lngf e edba cksa res t
    il
    lpr ese nt:Al onge rque ueofwa itlng
    cus t
    ome rsl ea dstol onge rhour sa ndmor es taffanda ninc r
    e asei nt hepr oc esslng
    rate.Theva lvec ontr ollingt heout lowf
    f romt hes toc kofwa iti
    ngC us tome rsope ns
    wi der,a ndc ustome rsde pa r
    tt heque uea tahi ghe rr ate.Thepol aritie soft hei nfor
    一

    na tionl inksi nt hef e edba ckl oo pa rea llPos i


    tive, buta ni ncr e
    a sei nt hec ustome r
    depa rturer atec ausesar e duc ti
    oni nthes tockofwa itl
    ngC ustome rsbe causet hede-
    par t
    ur era t
    ei sa nout lowf
    f r
    om t hes t
    ock.
    20
    6 Pa
    rtI
    ITo
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    emsTh
    ink
    ing

    FIGURE6-8 l
    ncor
    rect
    Stockschange
    onlyt
    hrough
    thei
    rrat
    es.
    T op:lnc orrect
    stoc kan dflow
    mapofas er vice
    oper at i
    on. Wor k
    -
    week,Ser vice
    St af
    f ,
    an do ther
    var i
    abl esc anno t
    direc t
    lyal t
    ert he
    stoc kofCus-
    tomer sAwai t
    ing
    Ser vice.
    Bot tom:Cor rec t
    ed
    diagr am. The
    Wor kweek ,
    numberofSer vi
    ce
    St af
    f, andPr odu c-
    ti
    vitydr ivethe
    Cus tomerDepa卜
    lureRat e,whi ch
    decr eas est he
    stockofCus-
    t
    omer sAwai ting
    Ser vice.

    6.
    2.7 Cont
    inuousTi
    meandl
    nst
    ant
    aneousFl
    ows
    Thes t
    ockandf
    lowpe rs
    pecti
    ve(a
    ndi tsequivalentintegr
    alordiff
    erent
    ialequati
    on
    str
    uctur
    e)repr
    esent
    stimea sunf
    oldingc ontinuously.Thatis,asoure xperi
    enc e
    suggest
    s,ti
    mepr ogr
    essessmoot
    hlya ndc ontinuousl
    y.Ins yst
    em dyna micswe
    almostalwaysrepr
    esentti
    l
    TleaSC Ori
    tinuous .Eventsc anhappena ta l
    n
    lyt i
    l
    T
    Tie;
    changecanoccurconti
    nuousl
    y;andt i
    mec anbedi videdintoint
    erval
    sa sfinea s
    onedesir
    es.
    1

    iInnumer
    ical
    simul
    ati
    ontimeisdi
    vide
    dint
    odisc
    retein
    ter
    val
    s.However
    ,t
    hesei
    nte
    rva
    lsmust
    besmalle
    noughth
    att
    hen umeri
    calso
    lut
    io
    nisagoodap p
    roxi
    mat
    ionofth
    eu nd
    erl
    yi
    ngconti
    nuo
    us
    dyna
    mi c
    s,an
    dmo del
    dynamicscannot
    depen
    donthelengho
    t fthesol
    ut
    ionin
    ter
    val(
    cut
    ti
    ngiti
    n
    hlf
    a ,e･
    g･
    ,shoul
    dnotaf
    fec
    t a
    nyo fyou
    rc?ncl
    usi
    ons
    )･Indis
    cre
    tet
    imeordif
    fer
    enceeq
    uat
    ionsys
    -
    t
    emst h
    etimein
    ter
    vali
    sanirred
    u c
    ibl
    emlni
    mll
    mt i
    med el
    aylnever
    yfee
    dbacklo
    opandoft
    enhas
    ala
    rgeimpacto
    nthedynamics.
    Ap p
    endi
    xAd i
    scus
    sesnumeri
    cal
    inte
    gra
    ti
    onandthese
    lec
    ti
    onofan
    app
    ropri
    at
    etimest
    epforyoursi
    mu l
    at
    ions
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 2
    07

    Af lO wa ta nyt lmei sd e fi
    ne dt obei tsins tantaneo usva lue -t her atea twhi ch
    wa teri sflowl ngi ntoyo urba thtu br ightnow.Ma thema ti
    c ally,t hene tf
    lO wt oa
    stock( inflowsl e sso utlo
    f ws )i st h eins tantane ousr ateo fcha ngeo fthes tock -i t
    s
    d er
    iva tive( thisi st heme a ningo fe qua t
    ion6- 2), Noonec anme asuret hei ns tanta-
    ne ousva l
    ueofa nyf low. Th ego ve rnme ntdoe snota ndc annotr eporttheGDPa ta
    pa r
    tic ula rmome ntbuti ns t
    e adr epo rtsthea ve rager ateo fpr oduc ti
    ono ve rs ome
    prior, fini t
    eint erva lo ftime( ty pic al
    lyaq ua rt
    ero faye ar)｡Li ke wi s
    e ,qua rterlyr e-
    po r
    tso faf i
    rm' ss alesa reth ec u mul a t
    ives alesd uringt heq ua rter,nott hei ns tanta-
    ne ouss a l
    esr atea tt hee ndoft heq ua r
    ter.Dur ingt heq ua rte rs aleslike lyva ried
    subs tant iall
    y.Sa le sr eport sa tmo ref reque nti nte r
    va lss uc ha smo nthl yo re ve n
    d a
    ilya rebe tt
    e ra pp rox i
    ma t
    io nso fthei nstan taneo uss alesr atebu tstil
    lre pre s
    e nta v-
    erag est akeno ve rs omepr ior,f initei nterva l.Simi larly,thes pe edome tero fac ar
    doe sno tme asur ei tsinstant ane ousve locity. Be causet hec ompo ne ntso ft hev eloc
    -

    1tySe ns o randi ns t
    r ume ntatio nha vei ne r
    tia,t hes pe edome teri ndi catesa na vera ge
    oftheve l
    ocityo ve ra( sho rt)pr io rinte r
    va l.
    Ast hel engt hoft heme a sur eme nti nte rvals hrinks ,ther epo rteda v erager ate
    beco me sabe tte ra ppro xima tio no fthei ns tantane ousr ate ,Mos ts peedo me tersr e-
    spondq ui c
    klyr ela ti
    vet ot her ateo fc hangeo fthec ar '
    st rueve loc i
    ty,sof orpr ac ti
    -
    calpur pos est hea ve rageve locityr epo r
    te dont hei ns t
    rume ntpa ne listhes a mea s
    thea c tua l,curre ntve l
    oc i
    ty .Ont heo the rha nd, thede laysi nr epo rt
    ingt hes tateo f
    thee c o nomyo rt hep rofitso fac o mpa nya reof t
    e nl ongr e lativet ot he i
    rr a teso f
    changea ndd ra ma tical
    lyi nflue nc ethes tabilityoft hes yste m. Thoug hwemi g ht
    deve lo pl nStrume nt Sfo ro urphys icala nds oc i
    als ystemst ha ts hrinkt hed el aysi n
    me as uri nga ndr e por t
    ingr atesO fflo w,Wec anne ve rme asur et hei ns tanta neous
    valueo ft heflo wsa ffecinga
    t nys tock.

    6
    .2｡
    8 e⑳m
    菅岳mu⑳uSB
    yDj
    vi
    s岳
    b日
    eve帽u
    S
    Quan
    t i
    zedFl
    ows
    Justa sti
    mec anber eprese nteda sunf ol dingc ontinuo uslyo rindis cret
    ei n
    t ervals
    ,
    sot ootheun it
    sflOwl ngI nt oa ndo utofs t
    oc ksc anbet houghto feitherasc on t
    inu-
    ous l
    ydi visibleo ra sadi scre t
    enu mbe r sofi tems .Mos tf lowsa rea ctuall
    yq uan-
    tized,me a nlngt he yc onsis tofc o l
    lec tionso findivi dua litemswhi chc an no tbe
    dividedint oa rbitrar
    il
    ys ma lluni t
    s. Oi ltan kersa r
    ec ommi ssionedo nea tat ime -
    itisno tme ani
    ng fultos pe ako flaunc hi ngha lfat anke r
    . Compa nyhi ri
    ngc o nsist
    s
    ofawhol enumb e rofpe o ple. Eve nthef lo wi nar ive rc onsist
    sofa n(a s
    trono mi-
    callylarge )integ ernumbe rofwa termo l
    e cules.Thes t
    oc ka ndflOwc once pta nd
    thef oure quiva l
    entno t
    ationss howni nFi gure61 2a ppl ywhe thert
    hef lo wi sc on-
    ceivedt obei nfinitel
    yd iv isibleo rqua ntized. Theme tapho rofthef lOwo fwa t
    er
    intoaba thtube mpha sizeso ure veryda ye x perienceofwa t
    e rasac o nt
    inuous lydi-
    visibl
    es ubs tance-wea ren' tconc erne dwi ththei de nti
    tyOft heind ividualwa t
    er
    mo lecules･ Ho we ver,ifitwe r
    ei mpo rta ntt oo urpur pos e,wec ouldj ustase asi
    ly
    ima gi
    net ha tthetubi sfill
    e dbyal u mpyf lowo findiv idua licecube s.h e
    W he
    t rc on-
    ti
    nuo uso rq uantized,theq ua nt
    ltyint hes t
    o ckisa l
    wa ysthea ccumul ati
    ono ft hein-
    lowst
    f othes t
    ockl essi t
    so ut lows
    f .
    Inma nymod e l
    sitisa pp rop r
    latea ndus efultoa ppr oxima t
    etheflo wo find i
    v i
    d-
    ualitemsa sac on t
    inuo uss tream. Inmode lingt hec ashflowofal argeo rganization
    208 Pa
    rtIT
    I o
    olsf
    わrS
    yst
    em sTh
    ink
    ing

    youus ua l
    lydonotne e dt ot r acki ndi vidua lpa yme nt s;iti sape rfectlya cc eptable
    a ppr oxi ma tiont oc ons ide rt hef lowofr eve nuea nde xpe ndi t
    uresa sc ont inuousi n
    timea ndc ontinuous lydi vi si
    bl e(thoughofc our set hea cco untingde par tme ntmus t
    tra cki ndi vidua lpayme nt s). Simi l
    a rly, t
    ho ughor ga ni za t
    ionshi redi s
    c rete ,whol ein-
    di vidua ls,itisus ua ll
    ya cc ept ablet oa ssumet hef lOwsofpe oplea rec ont inuous ly
    di visibl e.Somec lientsa ret roubl edbyt hef ractiona lpe opl eyourmode lwi l
    lge n-
    er ate, buta lmos talwa yst hee r
    rori si ns i
    gni ficantc ompa re dtot heme asur eme nter-
    rori npa rame tersinc ludi ngt henumbe rofe mpl oye e st hef i
    rma ctua l
    lyha s.Si nce
    pe opl ec anbehi redpa rtt ime,wor ki nj ob- sha rings it
    ua tions ,orbea sslgne dt o
    mul ti
    pl epr oje cts,i
    ti squi teme aningf ult os pe akoff r actiona lempl oye e s, me asured
    inFTE( FulトTi meEqui va lent)pe opl e.
    Whe nt hepur pos eoft hemode lr equi rest raC kingt hei ndividua lpe opl e, f
    ore x-
    ampl emode li
    ngt hebe ha vi orofpe opl ee nt erlngt hel inea tt hes upe rma rke ttode -
    ter mi net heo ptlma lnumbe rofc he ckoutc ount er s,t he npe oplec anbemode leda s
    di scre t
    ei ndi vidua l
    sa rrivl nga tdisc ret epol nt S;thi si sac la ssi
    cmode li
    ngpa radigm
    inque uingt he ory( Pr abhu1 997;Gr os sandHa rris1 998; Pa padopoul os1 993) ,Yet
    eve ni nma nyq ueul nga ppl ications ,thec ont inuoust ime, c ontinuousf lowa ppr ox-
    ima t
    ionwor kse xt
    reme lywe llandt hee rr
    or si tintr oduc esa reof tens ma llc ompa red
    tome as ureme nterrora ndpa r a
    me t
    e runc erta i
    nt yi nt her eals ystem. Thede ci s
    iont o
    re pres ents toc ksa ndf lOwsa sc ont inuousordi scr etea lwa ysde pendsont hepur -
    pos eoft hemode l.Fore xa mpl e,ifyourpur pos ei st ounde rst
    andt hedyna mi csof
    pr icea ndt heo ri
    ginofc yc lesi ntheoi ltanke rma rke t( S
    e ec hapt er20) , iti sfinet o
    as sumet hatt her atesoft a nke ror de ring,c ons tr
    uc tion,a nds crappa gea rec ontinu-
    ousi nt imea ndc ontinuous lydi visibl e. Ⅰ
    nc ont ras t,ifyourpu rpos ewe ret omode l
    thea rriva landomoa di ngoft anke rst oo ptlmi z epo r tf acili
    tiesyo uwoul dha vet o
    mode lthes hipsa sdi sc retee nti
    ties.

    6.
    2.9 Whi
    ehM⑳東e軸 gApp相aehSh⑳u日
    eEYouuse?
    Thec hoiceofmode lingt echniquea nds oftwa rewi l
    lde pe ndonwhi cha s
    sumpt 10nS
    aboutthes tocksa ndflOwsi nyours ystema rea ppropr iatet OyourPur pos e. I
    na l
    l
    casesma kes ureyourmode li
    ngs oftwa rea ndme thodc ani ncludet hef ee dba ck
    processesyo uc ons i
    de rimpor t
    ant .I
    nmode li
    ngt hebe havi oro fpe oplei nl i
    nea tthe
    supe r
    ma rket,fore xampl e,youmi ghtc hoos etous eadi sc re
    tet ime, qua ntizedflow
    representat
    iona nds ele ctas t
    oc hasticmode li
    ngpa ckage, ore venus eas prea dshe et
    .
    Bes ure,howe ve r
    ,tha tyourt ool sallowyout oc aptur ebe ha vioralfe edba ckss uch
    asthef eedbackf r
    omt hel engthoft hel inet other atea twhi chpe opl eJ Olnthel ine.
    Somemode lsa ndag re atma nyoft hethe oremsi nque ul ngt heorya s sumet hatt he
    rateofa r
    rivalst oaq ue ues uc ha sthec he ckoutl inei se xoge nous .Pe opl ea ctua l
    ly
    choos etoe nteral i
    neba sedoni tsl e
    ngt h( mor epr e cisely,the i
    re s t
    ima t
    eofe x-
    pectedwa i
    ti
    ngt ime ).Al ongl i
    newi llcaus epe opletos wi tcht oa nothe r,defe rthe i
    r
    shoppingt Oal e sscrowde dtimeofda y,ore ve ngot oadi fe rents t
    or e. Suc hb alk-
    mgc r
    ea t
    esapowe rf
    ulne gativef eedba ckl oop: Thel onge rthel i
    ne, hes
    t ma l
    lert he
    arri
    valr a
    te.Omi ttl
    ngS uc hfeedba ckpr oc essesfromyo urmode lint hei nterestsof
    analyti
    c a
    ltracta bil
    it
    yorpr ogra mml ngC OnVe niencewi llofte nle adt oaf atalma w
    inyoura na l
    ystsa ndpol icyconc lusions .
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 209

    6.
    2.10 ProcessPoint:
    Portr
    ay岳ngStocksandFF
    owsi
    nPr
    act
    ice
    Ea c hoft hes t
    o cka ndf lowr epr esent at
    ionsi nFi gur e6- 2( theba thtub,s toc ka nd
    lowdi
    f a gra m,i nte gr ale qua tion,a nddi fe renti ale qua ion)cont
    t a inspr ecise lyt he
    sa mei nf or ma ti
    o n. The ya r ee xa c t
    lye qul Va lent . Whi c hs houl dyouus etode ve lop
    a ndpr es entyo urmode l s,e spe c ial
    lywhe nyoua rewo rki ngl nat ea m?
    Thea ns we rde pe ndso nt hec ont extoft hemode lingpr qJ ectyo ua redoi nga nd
    theba ckgr oundofyourc lie ntt ea m.Whi lema nyma the ma ticallys ophi stic ated
    mode lerss cofFa tthei de aofe xpl ainlngaC Ompl exmode lus ingba t
    ht ubsa ndpi pe s,
    Iha vema nyt ime sS e enOt he r wi sebr ill
    ia ntmode li
    nge fo rtsf ounde rbe ca us et he
    ana lys ttie
    r dt oe xpl a inamode lus ingdi fe rent iale qua tionsa ndma the ma tic alno-
    tation-ort hes imul a t
    ionc ode -t oac l
    ie ntt ea mwi thl ittlet echni c alba ckg round.
    Oneoft hewor stt hi ngsac ons ultantc a ndoi shumi lia tet hec lient .Showi ngo f
    f
    yourma the ma tica lkno wl edgebyus i
    ngdi ffe r
    e nt ile
    a qua tions ,lot sofGr eekl e tters,
    andot he rnot at
    iont hec lientne vers tudie dorf or gotal ongt lmea goi sas ur e- f
    ire
    wa yt oc onvi nceyourc lie ntsyouc aremo ref ort hee lega nc eofyo ure qua t
    io nst ha n
    forhe lpi ngt hems ol vet he irpr oblem.
    St oc ka ndf lowd iagr a msc ontaint hes amei nf orma tiona sthemo rema the ma t
    -
    ic a
    ll yf or ma lno tationbuta r ee asiertounde rsta nda ndt omodi fyont hef ly.St ill
    ,
    Somet e amme mbe r sc ons ide re ve nthes t oc ka ndf lowdi a gr amf or ma tt obet ooa b-

    strac t.iha veo ftens e enc leve rgr aphi csoft a nks ,pipe s ,a ndva lve sus e dt oe xc e l
    -
    lente ffectwi hc
    t lientt e ams . Fore xa mpl e, ac ons ultingpr ojec tWi thamul ti
    na t
    iona l
    che mi ca lsf irmr e pr ese nt edt hef lowsofpr oduc tion,i nve ntor ies ,shi pme nts ,and
    cus tome rs t
    oc ks-a longwi thc apa clty,Ca sh, ande ve ne qui pme ntde fe cts
    -a sas e-
    riesofpi pes ,va lve s,a ndt anks .Thet ea m me mbe rswe rea blet ogr aspt hes toc k
    andf lows tructur er ea dilys inc ethe ywe r eal1f ami li
    a rwi tht het anksa ndpi pescr
    a -

    ryingma te rial
    si nt he i
    rpl ants . Inf act,mos toft hec lie ntt ea m we ree ngl ne er Sby
    trainlnga ndha dpl ent yofba ckg roundi nma the ma tics･ Ye tse vera lc omme nte dt hat
    the yne ve rr eallyunde r stoodhowt hebus ines swo r ke dunt ilthe ys a wt hec ha r
    t
    showl ngl tSS tocka ndf l ows t
    r uc t
    ur ea sta nksa ndpi pes ･
    Wha tifyou rc lie ntsha vee ve nl esste c hnic a ltrainl ngt hant he sec he mi ca lc om-
    pa nye xe c utives ?Theba thtubme taphori sof te nus edt ogoode fe ct,a sillus t
    r ated
    byt hec as eofa uto mobi lel ea sing( s eeFi gur e2. 4) AWha ti ft hes to cksa ndflowsi n
    yourmode lare n'ta st angi bl ea sba rre l
    sofoi lora ut omobi le s?Ge tc reatlveJna
    ma na ge me ntfligh ts imul a t
    o rofi nsur anc ec laimspr oc es sing( Ki m1 98 9;Di ehl
    1994) ,af low ofle tte rsa rrivi ngt oa ni nboxr epr es ente dt hea ddi tio no fne wc laims
    tot hes toc k ofunre s olve dc la ims .Le t
    tersc ont aini ngC he c ksflo we do utt ot hec us-
    tome rsa sclaim sw e res e ttled. Iconsofpe o pler e pr esent e dt hes o
    t cka ndflows tuc
    r -
    tureofc laim sadjus ters( Figur e61 9) .Pa rtic i
    pa nt sinwor ks ho psus ingt hemode l
    we rea bleto unde rs tandt hes ys tems truc turemuc hbe t
    te rt ha ni fth emo rea bs tract
    symbol shad be en us e d.
    Ia m notre com m e nd ingt ha tyouke ept hee qua tionsors to cka n df lowdi al
    gr amshi dde nf rom yourc l
    ie nt ･Ne ve rhi deyourmode lf romac u riouscl ie nt･ You
    shoul da l wayslook forandc re at
    eo ppor tuni tiesf orc lie ntt e amme mb erst ol ea n
    r
    mor ea boutthem ode l
    ing p r oc ess;yous houl da lwa ysbepr epar edt oe xp laint he
    wor kingsofyourm ode l.
    210 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    emsTh
    ink
    ing

    FIGURE6 -
    9
    Stocksandf l
    ows

    撃薄 T
    u
    r
    n
    ov
    e
    r
    ofcJai
    msand
    cl
    aimsad j
    u s
    ters
    nanl
    l nSuranCe
    comp any Ad
    jus
    ter
    s

    ミ≡
    CI
    ai
    ms
    轟 Clai
    ms
    ≡
    Cl
    aims
    牽
    Rec
    eiv
    ed Ou
    tst
    andi
    ng Se
    tt日
    ed

    Sour
    ce.
    IKi
    m 1989.

    Andwhi lelc a
    utiont hema t
    hema ti
    c al
    lys o
    phisti
    c a
    tedmode leragalnStOve r
    ly
    technic
    a lpre sentat
    ion,t heoppositeproble mc a
    na lsoa r
    ise:s omec li
    entsa reof-
    fendedbywha tt heyc onsidertobes i
    mpl isti
    cc ar
    toond iagra msa ndpreferwha t
    theyv i
    ewa st hemor epr o f
    ess
    ionalpre se
    ntati
    ono fs tocka ndflow di ag
    r a
    mso r
    evene qua t
    ions･ Asa lwa ys,youmus tge tt
    okno wyo urclientde eplyande arl
    yl n
    themo de li
    ngpr o cess
    .
    Fi
    na l
    l y,
    ac a uti
    onfb∫t hosewithlesstechnicalt
    raini
    nga ndma thematicalback一
    ground:Cl i
    entsma yno tne edtounde rsta
    ndt hed eepr e
    lationshipbetwe enthe i
    r
    bathtu
    ba ndt hema t
    hema t
    icsunderl
    yings tocksandflows ,butyo udo.Whi leyo u
    don'tnee dtobea bletos olvedi
    fe r
    entialequati
    onstobeas uc cessf
    ulmod eler,you
    done edt ou nde rs
    tandt hes t
    ruct
    ureanddyna micsofs t
    oc ksa ndflowstho ro
    ug hly
    andr i
    goro usly｡

    6｡
    3 MApp日
    NG STOeKSAND FLOWS

    63.
    コ1 WhenSh⑳uはPeaLuSaは oopD岳
    agr
    amsSh㊤w
    St
    ockandFlow Struct
    ure?
    Caus a
    ld iagr
    a msc anbed ra
    wnwi t
    houts howingt hestockandflo ws tr
    uctureo fa
    syst
    em芋 Or,ass howni nFi gure6-ラ8ー heyc a
    ni ncludethestocka ndf l
    ows tr
    l
    Jp
    C t
    lre
    explic
    itly.Whe nshouldyo ui ncludet hestocka ndflows tr
    ucture ,a ndwhe nc an
    youomi ti
    t?Ge neral
    ly,yous houldi ncludestocka ndf
    lo wstuc
    r ture srepr
    esentlng
    physicalproce ss
    es,delays,Ors t
    oc kswhos ebe haviorisimport
    anti nt hedynami cs
    yous ee
    kt oe xplain･Fore xample ,cons i
    dertheflowo fapr od
    uctt hro ughas upply
    chainfromp ro ducertoc ons
    ume r.Thepr oducttravel
    sthroughane two r
    ko fstocks
    (i
    nve nt
    o ri
    es)a ndflows( shi
    pme nta ndd el
    iveryr at
    es).Thestocka ndflowr epre-
    sent
    a t
    ionfort hisprocessiss howni nt hetoppa nelofFigure6-10.
    Prod ucti
    ons t
    a r
    tsaddt ot hes tockofwo rkinpr ocess(WI P)I nve nt
    ory.The
    ProductionCo mpleti
    onRa t
    er educ esthes t
    ocko fWI Pa ndincreas esthestockof
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 211

    FI
    GURE6･
    10 St
    ockan
    dfl
    owv
    s.C
    aus
    aldi
    agr
    amr
    epr
    esen
    tat
    i
    ons
    St
    ockandRowRepr
    esent
    ati
    onofaManuf
    act
    uri
    ngPr
    ocess

    Wor.kin
    Fi
    nished
    Process
    l
    nventor
    y
    Pr
    oduct
    ion l
    nventor
    y Product
    ion Shi
    pment
    Star
    tRate Completi
    on Rat
    e
    Rat
    e

    CausalLoopDi
    agr
    am Repr
    esent
    ati
    onoft
    heManuf
    act
    uri
    ngPr
    ocess

    Pr
    /一一
    oduct
    i
    1-
    on
    ､
    T' AL

    Wor kin
    ふ 一 ---- ､

    Product
    ion
    .
    /一
    一一
    ･
    -五 Fi
    nished
    二
    g 一一
    ･一＼ー
    Shi
    pment
    Star
    tRate Process Completi
    on hventor
    y Rat
    e
    l
    nventor
    y Rat
    e

    Fi nishe dInv ento


    r y
    .Shi pme ntst oc usto mersde pleteFinishedI nvent ory. Eq ula
    V -

    1ent l
    y ,thes t
    oc kofWI Pa c cumul atespr oductions tar
    tslessc ompl etions ,a ndt he
    stoc ko ff i
    n i
    shedi n
    ve nto rya ccumul ate sproduc ti
    onc omple ti
    onsle ssshi pme nts.
    Thec aus a
    ld iagramr epr esentaioni
    t sshowni nt hebo t
    tom pa ne lofFi gure
    6- 10･ Whi letechnicall
    yc o rrec t
    ,thec a usaldiagramma kesi thardtos eethephys i
    -
    c alflow o fproduc tthro ug ht hes ystema ndt hec onservationofma te r
    iali nt he
    stoc ka ndflo wc hain. Iti so ftenc onf usingtoi nterpre
    tthepo l
    arit
    ie so fthec aus a
    l
    linkswhe ntheyInvo lves toc ksa ndflo ws .Ani nc r
    easeint hePr oduc ti
    onCo mpl e-
    tionRa t
    ec ausesFinishe dl nve ntoryt or is
    ea bov ewha titwo ul
    dha v ebe eno the r
    -
    wi se( itrisesataf asterr ate) ,hencet hepol a
    rityo fthelinki spositi
    ve. Ad ecrease
    inpr od uctio
    nc ompl etio ns ,howe ve r,do esno tc ausefinishedi nve nto ryt of all.
    Ra the r,ade creas
    ei nt hepr od uc t
    ionc ompl e
    tionr atecause sfi
    nishe di nve ntoryt o
    bel e ssthani twouldha vebe e n.Yo uc anno tsaywhe t
    herfinishedin ve ntorywi l
    l be
    rislngO rfall
    ingba sedont hebe havio ro ft
    hepr od ucti
    onr atealone .Inve ntorywi l
    l
    riseo nl ywhe np r
    o ductio nc o mpl et
    i onse xceedt heshipme ntrate;thatis ,inve ntory
    risesonl ywhe nwea ddt oi tf astert
    ha nwer emo veun i
    tsfromi t.Yo une edt okno w
    theva lueso falltheflo wsa fe cingas
    t toc
    kt ode termineitsbe havior .Ri chards on
    (1 986a ,1 997)carefull
    ydo c ume ntst hepi tf
    allso fcausaldia gr
    ams ,mos tofwhi ch
    invo lvet hefa i
    lur
    eo fc aus a ldi agramst oshowt hestock/lo
    f wd ist
    inctio n.

    Add的
    1gSt
    ockP
    .ndFl
    owSt
    ruct
    uret
    oCausalD妻
    agr
    ams
    Consi
    derthecaus
    alloopdiagr
    a msinchapter5･Foreach,redrawthediag
    ram
    showi
    ngtheimpor
    tantst
    ockandflOws t
    ruct
    ureal
    ongwi t
    hthef e
    edbackst
    uc
    r t
    ure
    showninthedi
    agr
    am. I
    nparti
    cular
    ,ide
    ntif
    ythema i
    ns t
    ocksandflOwsint
    hefoil
    l
    owlngCOnCept
    ual
    iza
    tio
    nc a
    sestudi
    espresent
    edinchapt
    er5:
    21
    2 P
    art
    IIT
    bol
    sfわ
    rSy
    ste
    msTh
    ink
    ing

    1
    .Thewo
    rkl
    oadma
    nage
    men
    texa
    mpl
    e.
    2.Theo
    ili
    ndus
    tr
    yandho
    rser
    acl
    nge
    xampl
    es.
    3.Thet
    raf
    fi
    cconge
    sti
    one
    xampl
    e.
    he ac
    hc as
    e,consi
    derwhethe
    rtheexpl
    ici
    tre
    pres
    enta
    tionofthemains
    toc
    ksand
    lo
    f wse n
    hancesyourabi
    li
    tytounde
    rsta
    ndthedynamicsofthesys
    temormer
    ely
    cl
    utt
    ers血ed i
    agra
    m.

    Li
    nkさ
    ngSt
    et:
    汰andFl
    owS号
    ruct
    urey
    ･
    ^
    /軸 Fee軸 t
    lCk
    Of tenu nde rs tandi ngt hed yna mi csofas ys temr equl re Sl i
    nk ingt hef e ed backl o op
    struc t
    ur ewi tht hes toc ka ndf lows tru ctu re.Asa ne xa mpl e, cons ide rt hega soline
    sho rtage so ft he1 970s Jn1 979t heUni tedSt ates( a nds omeot he ri nd ustrialized
    na t
    io ns )e xpe rienc edas eve rega solines ho rt
    ag e.I ran' se x po rt
    so fo ild roppe di n
    thewa keo ft her e vol utiont he r e,a ndpe tro l
    eum pr lCe SO nt hewor ldma rketi n-
    crea seds ha rply. Wi thi nwe eks ,as ho r tag eo fga so linebe ga n･Somes e rvices tations
    foundt he irt ankse mpt i
    e dbe fo ret hen e xtd e l
    ive ry .Dr ive rs,re me mbe ri
    ngt hef irst
    o i
    le mba rgoi n1 973a ndwo rriedt ha t the ywo uld n' tbea blet oge tg as, be gant ot op
    o f
    ft he irt anks ,i ns t
    e adoff il
    lingupo nlywhe nt hega sga ugef ellt owa rde mpt y･
    Soo n, lo ngl ine sofc a rswe r es ee ni dlingi nf rontofga ss tations ,andH So rry-No
    Ga s"S ignss pr out e da longt hehi ghwa ysofAme r icaa ss t
    a ti
    o na f t
    ers tationf ound
    itsunde rg roundt ankspumpe dd ry. Thes ho rt
    agewa st het o ps toryo nt hee venl ng
    ne ws -a e rialf oot ageofc arsl ine du pa ro undt hebl oc k,c l
    os e-upso f" NoGa s "
    slgnS ,a ndi nt er vie wswi tha nxi ousd ri
    ve rsd omi na t
    e dt hene ws ･I ns omes ta tes,
    ma nda toryr a tionl ngWa simpos e d, i
    nc lud ingl iml tlngPur cha sest o,f ore xa mpl e, no
    mo r etha n$1 0wor thofga s.Ca liforn iai mpos edo dd /e venpu r c
    ha s
    er ule s:Dr ive rs
    we rea l
    lo we dt obuyga so nlye ve ryo the rda y,ba s edo nwhe thert he irlic ensepl a te
    numbe rwa soddo re ve n. I tse eme d血a tt hes u ppl yo fga sol i
    neha dbe ens la s
    he d･
    Cur io usly ,thei mpa cto ftheI r
    a nia nr evo lutiono nt hef lowo fo ilt ot heUSwa s
    sma l
    l. True, USoi limpo rtsf ro mt hePe rsianGul f( i
    nc ludi ngI r
    a n)f ellby50 0,00 0
    barr elspe rda ybe twe en1 978a nd1 9 79, a bo ut3% ofUSc o nsumpt io n, but impo rts
    fromot he rna t
    i onsi nc rea se dby6 40, 0 00ba rr
    e lspe rda y ,soi mpo r
    tsi n1 979a ctu-
    allyl nCr eaS e dby1 40, 000ba r
    r elspe rda y･Dome s t
    icpr oduc ti
    onf e llby1 50,000
    barr elspe rda y , sot o tals up plywa se ssen tiallyc ons t
    ant ,whi l
    ec o ns umpt ionf ell by
    abo ut33 0, 000ba rre lspe rda y,ad ro pof2% f ro m1 978. Pla inly, f
    o rt heye ara sa
    whol e,t he rewa snos ho rta ge.Buti ft heI lo wofoi li ntot heUSwa se ssentia l
    ly
    cons tant ,wha tc a use dt hes ho rta ge ?Whe redi dt hega sgo?
    Fi rst,de ve lo pas toc ka ndf lowma pf orthega sol i
    nedi stribut i
    ons ys t
    em･ Yo u
    nee dno tc ons ide rt hee nt i
    r es u ppl yc ha inf orga sol i
    nebutc anf oc uso nr et
    a i
    ld is-
    tri
    but ion. Yo urdi agr ams ho uldbe g inwi tht hef lOwofga sol i
    net os er vices tations ,
    thenr epr e s
    e ntt hes toc ka ndf lOw s tr uc t
    ur ef ori t
    ss ubs eque nts tora ge ,s ale
    ,a nd
    eve ntua lc ombus tion.
    Onc eyo u' vema ppe dt hes to cka ndf lows truc ture ,ident i
    f yt
    hei nf oma
    r tioni n-
    pu t
    st ot her ate soff lo wi nyo urdi a gr am･ As sumet ha tther at
    ea twhi chga solinei s
    delive redt os er vic es ta t
    io nsi se xo ge no us .Byi de ntifyingt hei nfo rma ti
    o ni npu tstO
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 213

    tef
    h lowsi nyo urstoc ka ndflowma p,yo uwi l
    lbec losl
    ngs omef e
    e dbackloops,
    loo
    pswhi chs h
    o ul
    dhe lpe xpla
    inwh yt heshortageo ccur
    reda ndanswe rt
    heq ues-
    t
    ion,Whe redidt hega sg o?Bes uret oa skho wi ndivi
    dualdriver
    swoul dlear
    n
    abouttheshort
    agea ndwha tt
    heirbehaviorwo uldthe nbe.
    Finall
    y,uslngyo urdi agr
    am,a ss
    e ssthelikelye fect
    ivenessoft
    hema xi
    mum
    purchaseandod d/
    e venpol ici
    es.Dopol i
    ciesofthistypehelpe as
    ethes horta
    geo r
    makei two r
    se?Why?Wha tpoli
    cywoul dyo ureco mme ndtoe as
    et hesho r
    tag
    e?
    Explai
    nwhyyo ut hinkyourpol ic
    ywoul dbee fe ct
    iveintermsoft hes t
    ock/lo
    f w
    andfeedbackstructureo fthesystem.

    6.
    3.2 Aggr
    egat
    iQn喜
    nSt
    ockandFl
    ow Mappi
    r!
    g
    Thea bilityt oma pt hes toc ksa ndflowsi nas ystemi sc riti
    c altoe fe ctivemod el-
    ing. Us ua ll
    yi ti swi set oi dent i
    fyt hema ins toc ksi nas ys tema ndt he nt heflo ws
    tha ta ltert hos es toc ks .Yo umus ts el
    e cta na ppr op rlatel evelofa gg rega tiona nd
    bo unda ryf o rt he ses toc ka ndf lowma ps .Thel eve lo fa gg rega t
    ionr e ferst ot he
    n umbe ro fint erna lc ategor ieso rs t
    oc ksr epr e sented. Thebounda ryr e ferst ohow
    fa ru pstre ama nddowns trea mo nec ho ose st or epres entthef lOwso fma teri
    a lsa nd
    o therq ua nt i
    tie si nt hemode l
    .
    Toi llustra te,c ons idert hema nu fa c
    tu ringPr oc essdi scusse da bovei nwhi ch
    ma t
    e rialflOwsf rompr od uc ti
    o ns t
    artst hroug hWI Pi nve nto ryt of i
    nis he di nve ntory
    andf ina llys hi pme ntt ot hec ustome r.Al lt heva ri
    o uspa rts,compo ne nts,a nds ub-
    as sembl ie sa rea gg rega tedt oge t
    he rintoas ing les t
    oc ko fWI P･Andt ho ug ht hef ir
    m
    ma yc a r
    r yt enso ft ho us andso fSKUs( stoc kk eepinguni ts),the seindi v idua lite ms
    ar ea llagg re ga tedi nt oas i
    ngl es tocko ffin ishe dinve nt ory.Forma nypur pos e sthe
    ag gre gatepi c turei ssuf fici
    e nt.Ho we ve r,themod e
    l pur pos emi g htre qui remo red e -
    tail.Ift hepu r pos ei nvol ve dac loserl ooka tt hema nuf a c
    tur l
    ngpr oc e ss,yo uC Ould
    di sagg rega tet h es toc kofwo rki npr oc esss e r
    i all
    yt or epre sentt hedi fe rents tag es,
    suc ha spa rtf ab rica tion, assembl y,andt e sting( Fig ure6- 11)･
    Thes umo fthet hre einter me diat
    es t
    oc ksi sthet otalwo rki npr oc essi nve n tory,
    bu tno wt hemo de ltra cksthr oug hputa taf ine rl evelofr esolutiona ndc anr ep resent
    mo repo tentia lbo ttlene cksi nt hepr oduc tionpr o cess.No t
    et ha tinbo tht heo r l
    g lnal,
    ag gre gatedi ag rama ndi nt
    hi smo red etailedd iagra mt herei snopr ovi sionf o rre -
    wo r
    ko rs crap. Al luni tss tarteda ree vent ua llyc ompl eted-t heflow ofwi dge ts
    thr oug hthes ys t
    e mi sc o nserve d.No tea lsot ha tasma te r
    ialflo wsthr o ug hthes ys
    -

    temi ti st rans forme dfr ompa rt


    st ofini s
    he dp roduc t.Toma intainc ons istentuni ts
    ofme asurewemi ghtme a surepa rtsi nwi dge tequl Va lents-t hati s ,awi dge t's
    wo r
    tho fpa r
    ts .Ifne c essaryf o rthepu rpos e ,yo uca nf urtherd isa ggre ga t
    et hes tock
    an dflows tru ctu re.

    Modi
    fyi
    ngSt
    ockandFI
    ow Maps
    1
    .Mod if
    ythedi
    agra
    mi nFi
    gur
    e6-
    llt
    ore
    pre
    sentt
    hec
    asewhe
    reuni
    tst
    hatf
    ail
    t
    est
    lngar
    eSCr
    apped.
    2.Modif
    yyourdia
    gra
    mtore
    pres
    entt
    hec
    asewhe
    rei
    temsf
    ail
    ingt
    est
    lnga
    re
    r
    etu
    rnedt
    oa s
    sembl
    yfo
    rrewor
    k.
    21
    4 Pa
    rtI
    I To
    olsf
    orSys
    tem sThi
    nki
    ng

    Fl
    GURE61 11
    Di
    saggregated
    st
    ockandf f
    ow
    mapfora
    manufact
    uri
    ng
    Pr
    ocess
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 215

    atthepl antyoua r
    emode l
    inga c t
    uall
    yrequir
    esSeveralopera
    tions :weldi
    ng,grind-
    1ng,andpa intl
    ng.Obs erva tionoftheg r
    indi
    ngope r
    aionr
    t evealsthatworkersdraw
    partsre adyf orgrindingf rom abuf fergenera
    tedbythewe l
    dingo perati
    on.Whe n
    grindingl SC Ompleted,thepa rt
    sa r
    eplacedinabinwhi chthengoe sontothene xt
    ope r
    ation( pa i
    nti
    ng)･Thewe l
    dingandpa i
    ntshopsares i
    milar
    . Dr a
    wt hedisaggre一
    gateds tocka ndflOwma pf orthepa r
    tfabri
    cati
    onsteptoshowt hewe l
    ding,grind-
    1ng,andpa lntl
    ngope rat
    i onse xplici
    tl
    y.

    Upt onowt hedi scus sionha sf oc us e dons e rialdi sa ggr ega ti


    on:howf inelyt o
    br eakdownt hes ta ge sofpr oc es slng.Thr oughout ,t hema nydi f
    ferentpa r t
    sa nd
    pr oduc tspr oduc edbyat ypl Ca lf irma rea ggr ega tedi ntoas lngl ec ha i
    nofs toc ks
    a ndf l
    ows .Inma nys i
    tua tionst hepr oc essoc c ur snotonl yi ns eriesbuta lsoi n-
    vol vespa ra
    lle la ctivi ties.Youc oul dofc our ser epl ica t
    et hema i
    ns toc ka ndf low
    cha inf ore achpr oduc t( ma nys imul ations of t
    wa repa cka gess uppor ta rra ys t
    rc
    u -

    turesf わrt hispu r pos e )｡Whe nt he rea remul ti


    pl e, pa ra l
    le la ctivitiesyoumus tma ke
    ade cisionnoto nl ya boutt henumbe rofs tage soft hepr oc es stor epresentbuta lso
    howmuc ht oa gg rega tet hedi ff erentpa rallelpr oc e sse st oge the r.Fore xa mpl e,t he
    a ssembl ypr oc es sf ora utomobi lesi nvol vesi ntegr atlngt hec ha ssi
    sa nde ngl ne.
    Ea chs uba ssembl yi sbui l
    tonas e pa ratel ine ,of teni npl a nt sfa rf rom thef inala s
    -
    se mbl ypol nt･Suppos et hec lie nta rgue stha tyouca n'ta ggr ega tea llsubc ompo-
    ne ntsi ntoas lngl ef lowofpa rts, butmus tse pa ratec ha ss i
    sa nde nginef abr ic
    a tion
    (omi tthebodyf ors impl icity) . Thes toc ka ndf lOwma pf ort hea ssembl ypr oc e s
    s
    mi ghtbes howna si nFi gur e6- 1 2.
    The rea renowt hr eedi stinc ts toc ka ndflowc ha ins ,onee achf orengl ne S,Cha s
    I
    sis,a nda ssembl e dca rs. Be c aus et het hre ec ha insa res epa ra t
    e,e achc a nbemea-
    sur edi ndi ffere ntuni t
    s:e ngl ne S,C ha ss is,andc ar s.Thet hr eec hainsa rel i
    nke d
    be caus ee achc arbe gi nnlngt hef ina la s sembl ypr oc es sr equl reSOnee ngi nef r om
    thes toc kofc ompl ete de ngl ne Sa ndonec has si
    sf rom t hes t ockofc ompl etedc ha s
    -
    sis.Thei nforma tiona rr
    owsf romt hea s sembl yr atet ot hee ngi nea ndc ha ssi
    sus e
    ratess howt he sel inks .Thenumbe rofe ngl ne Sa ndc ha s sisa va ilablea lsode temi ne
    thema ximum a s sembl ys t artr ate,whi c hi ntur nco ns t
    r ainsa ctua la s
    se mbl ys ta rts:
    Ife itherc ompone ntbuf fe rf allst oz ero,a ssembl ymus tc eas e.2Thes el inks( not
    shown)de fi
    net woba lanc ingf ee dba ckst hatr egul a tet heout f l
    owsf r
    omt hes toc ks
    ofc ompone ntsa ndc oupl et hes toc ka ndf lOwne twor ks ･Thedi agr amdoe snotr ep-

    resentma nyot he ri nf orma ti


    onf lowst ha tmus te xi sti nt hes yste m( s
    uc ha sthede -
    termi na ntsoft hec ha s si
    ss t
    a rta ndc ompl e t
    ionr ates ); t
    r ya ddi ngt he s
    et ot hema p.
    Yo uc oul dofc our sec ont inuet odi sagg rega te. Thepr oc e ssc a nbebr oke ndown
    intomor es t
    e ps :Thepa intpr oc es s,f ore xa mpl e,a ctua llyc ons istsofmul tiple
    ac t
    ivitiess epa rate dbybufe rss uc ha spa rtpr epa ration( solve ntba t
    h) ,dr yi ng,
    spr aylngt hef irstc oa t,dr yingi nt heove n,s pra yingt hes e condc oa t
    ,dr yi ng,a nd
    soon, wi thva riousi ns pe ctionsa l
    ongt hewa y･Youc oul da lsoc ontinuet hepa ra lle
    l
    disaggr e ga t
    ionbys pl it
    tlngt hee ngl neOrC ha s sisa sse mbl ypr oc essesi nt ot he i
    r

    2
    Fir
    msc
    nS
    a o
    met
    i
    mesb
    uil
    din
    comp
    let
    eun
    it
    san
    dad
    dth
    emi
    ss
    lngC
    O On
    mP e
    ntSl
    at
    er
    ･Wh
    ena
    997S
    1 tr
    ik
    esh
    utd
    ownac
    ri
    ti
    ca
    lsu
    ppl
    i
    er,
    For
    dco
    nti
    nue
    dtoa
    sse
    mbl
    eit
    spo
    pul
    arEx
    plo
    rer
    ,st
    or
    ln
    g
    t
    henea
    rl
    ycomp
    let
    edca
    rsun
    tilt
    h emis
    si
    ngpa
    rt
    sbe
    cameava
    il
    abl
    ea
    ndcoul
    dber
    et
    ro
    fi
    tt
    ed(
    t
    ry
    mod
    if
    yingt
    hed
    iag
    raminFi
    gure 6-
    12t
    oacc
    ommoda
    tesu
    chret
    ro
    fi
    tt
    i
    ng)
    .
    21
    6 Pa
    rtIT
    I o
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    Fl
    GUR E 6 - 12 s
    Diagg
    re g ating ar
    p ‖
    ael
    ac vi
    ti t
    i
    es

    E
    ngi
    Pr
    nesi
    oces
    n
    s
    Comp一
    Engi
    et
    ed
    nes

    mbE
    A ssei
    es
    i
    nPr
    ocess
    Assembly
    Completl
    r
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    Rate

    C
    h
    P
    r
    s
    a
    s
    c
    o
    i
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    si
    n
    s
    C
    omp一
    et
    Chassi
    s
    e d

    Chassi
    s Chassi
    s
    Comp一et
    ion Use
    Rate Rate

    suba s
    sembl ies.Int heli
    mi teac hande ve rypa r
    ta ndo perati
    onwo uldber epr esented
    separatel
    y. Obv io us l
    ysuc hamode lwo uldbej usta sco mplexa sther eals ys t
    e m,at
    leastasha rdt ound erst
    a nd,a ndq ui t
    eus eless.
    Whe res ho uldyo us top?Howmuc hde tai
    li sne cessa
    ry?Thi si sa lwa ysama -t
    terofjudg me ntt obema debyc ons i
    deringt hemod elpu r
    posea ndt hene e dsofthe
    client
    . I
    ft hepur pos eisr epr e
    s entl
    ngt hel aglnt her esponseoft hema nuf acturl
    ng
    systemt oc ha ng e sinde ma nda spa rtofal argermo de loffirms trat
    eg y, t
    hes i
    mpl er
    representationi spr obabl yf ine.Ifyous eekt or eenglneert heflOw ofma ter
    ial
    throughthep rod uc ti
    onl ine ,amo rede t
    a i
    ledr epresentati
    oni srequir ed.I tisbe t
    ter
    tos t
    artwi thahi gh- l
    evel ,agg regaterepr esent
    a t
    iona nda ddd etailifne ed e dtoa d-
    dressthepur pos e. Beginnl ngWi thde tai
    ledpr oc es
    sma pso 氏e nlea dst opa ral
    ysis
    duet othe irc ompl e x
    ity,da tar equlreme ntS,andr apido bsolescencer at
    e s. Thea g一
    gregatema ps ho wi ngonl ypr od uctions t
    arts,WI P,pro ducti
    on, andf inishe di nven-
    torylSqul teS ta blea ndr ema insa ppropr l
    atee vena St hede t
    ailso fthepr od ucti
    on
    processcha nge , whi l
    ead etai
    ledma pma ybe comeo bso l
    eteasne wp rod uc ts
    , t
    ooレ
    lag,Orpr oc esst ec hnolog iesa reintroduc ed.

    6.
    乱3 Gui
    de日
    ines菅
    orAgg帽ga抽 m
    Whenisi tappropri
    atetOa
    gg r
    egat
    ed ifere
    nta ct
    ivi
    tiestoget
    her?Tode ter
    mi ne
    whet
    hera ct
    ivit
    iesta
    kingpl
    aceseri
    all
    yc anbea ggregat
    ed,conside
    rt hea verage
    r
    esi
    dencetimeofi t
    emsineachst
    ock(t
    hea vera
    getimebe t
    we enente
    ringa nde xit
    -
    i
    ngthestock).Stoc
    kswithshor
    tres
    idenceti
    me srela
    tivetotheti
    mes c a
    lef orthe
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 21
    7

    dyna mi c sofi nte re stge ne rallydonotne edt ober epr e sente de xpl icitlya ndca ne
    L

    the rbeo mi ttedo rl umpe di nt oa dj ace nts toc ks .Fore xa mpl e , int hel o ng-te m pl
    r an-
    nl ngmode lsoft heUSe ne rgys ys tem de ve lope dbyt heUSDe pa rtme ntofEne rgy
    (Na ill1 992) ,va r iouss toc ksofundi scove redpe trol eum a ndknownr es ervesa re
    expl ici t
    lyr epr ese nt edbe caus et he irl ifetimesr angef rom ye arst ode cade s( atc ur-
    re nt pr oduc tionr ate s).Howe ve r, stoc ksofc udeoi
    r la ndr efine dpr oduc tsint hepe -
    trol eum s uppl yc ha inr epr es entonl yaf ewmont hsofc onsumpt lOn. Inal ong- t
    e rm
    mode lthe ses toc ksa ret oos ho rt-live dt or equl r ee xpl i
    c ittrea tme nt.The yfluc tua te
    ar oundt he ire q uilibr i
    um va l uesa spr oduc ers ,r ef i
    ne rs,a nddi stribut orsr e actt o
    cha ngesi ni nv e ntor y.I namode lofs hor t-ter m move me nt si ns potpe troleum
    pr ices , howe ve r,he
    t ses tocksa rec ritica l
    lyi mpor ta nt .Agoo dmode lwoul dr epr e-
    se ntt heke ys toc ksi nt hepe tr ole um s uppl yc ha i
    ne xpl icit
    ly ,pe rha pse ve ni nclud-
    1ngaS e pa rateS toc kf ort hei nve nto ryofga sol inea tr et ai
    ls e rvic es tationsa ndt he
    inve nt oryofga sol inei nt het a nksofc arsont her oa d. Ont heot he rha nd,as hor t-
    ter ms potpr lCemode lne e dnoti nc ludepe trol e um r es erve sorundi scove redr e-
    sour ces , ast hes es tocksc ha nget oos lowl yt oi nflue nc et hes potma rke tove rat i
    me
    hor i zonofaye ar.
    Pa ra llela cti
    vi tiesc anl e gltima te lybea ggr e ga tedt oge the ri ft hei ndi vidua l
    lowsa
    f regove rne dbys imi la rde c isionr ulesa ndi ft het imet hedi ffere ntite ms
    spe ndi nt hei nd i
    vi dua ls toc ksi ss imi l ar.Fore xa mpl e, itisof tena ppr opr l
    a tetOa g一
    gr ega tet hema nypa rtsr equi re dt oma nuf ac t
    ur eapr oduc tint oas ma l
    lnumbe rof
    ca te gor ie ss incet he ya reus ua llyor de re dus ingt hes amepr oc e dur esa ndt he i
    rde-
    live ryl ea dt ime sa ndr es ide nc et ime si npa rtsi nve nt orie sge ne ra llydon' tdi fert oo
    muc h.I nc ont rast,pl a nta nde qul Pme nts ome timesmus tbedi sa ggr ega ted.The i
    r
    lifetime sa reve rydi fferent ,andt hede cisionr ulesf o rne wg r ee n-fieldf a cilit
    iesdi f-
    fers ubs tant iallyf rom t hos eus edt c･or de re qul Pme ntf ore xi stingf ac i
    litiesduet o
    dif fere nc esi nl ea dt ime s ,cos ts ,fina nc lng, Pe rmi t
    tlng,a ndr e gul ator yI ssue s.
    Asar uleo ft humb,C li
    e nt sge ne ra llywa ntt os e emor ede taili namode lt ha n
    themode l
    e rthi nksi sne e de d, andmode lers, i
    nt ur n, ge ne rallyove restima tet hede-
    tailne c es sar yt oc aptu ret hedyna mi csofi nter est･Ofc our se ,thea mountofde ta i
    l
    ne e de dt oca ptur et hedyna mi c sr eleva ntt ot hec lie nt '
    spur pos ea nd也ea mountof
    de ta ilne ede dt ogi vet hec lientc onf ide nc ei nt her e sultsa ret wodi fferentt hings .
    Ro be rts( 1977 /1 978 )e sti
    ma tedt ha tc lient so ftenr eq ui ret wic ea smuc hde ta i
    la sthe
    mode le rf ee lsisne ede dt of e elc omf or tablewi tha nda c ceptamode la saba sisf or
    ac ion,a
    t ndi nmye xpe ri
    e nc et hi si sof tena nunde re sti
    ma te･Suc ce ssr equl reSyou
    toi nc ludet hed e t
    a ilne ces sar yt os a tisfyt hec lient .Butt hi sdoe snotme anyou
    shoul da cqul e SCet Oa llc lientde ma ndsf ormor ede tail- youwi lle ndupwi tha n
    expe ns ivea ndus el essbl a ckbox, Youmus twor kwi tht hec lientt ounde r
    st andwhy
    exc es s ivede tailisof tenunne ces s ary.Of t en,mode lse ndupwi ht
    t oomuc hde ta il
    ,
    buta st hec lientga lnSC Onf ide nc ea ndunde rsta ndi ngoft hei mpo rtantf e edba cks
    drivl ngt hedyna mi cs,thee xc e sss truc tur ec anbee limi na t
    ed, resul ti
    ngl naS impl e r
    ,
    mor ee as ilyma int aine d,a ndmor eus e fulmode l( Ra n°e rs1 98 0) .St ill,Robe rtsi s
    cor re ct .
    A" Youmus tpr ovi det hel e ve lofde tai ltha tc a usesl thec lient ]tobepe r-
    sua de dt ha tyouha vepr ope rlyt ake ni ntoa ccounthi si ssue s,hi sque stions , hisleve l
    ofc onc erns . Ot he rwi sehewi llnotbe lie vet hemode lyouha veb ui l
    t, hewi llnota c-
    ce pti t,a ndhewi llnotus ei t"( p･ 80) ･
    218 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    stem s
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    6.
    3.4 Syst
    em L
    lynarni
    cs岳nAct
    喜on:
    Mode抽 gLarge-Sca!
    eConst
    ruct
    ionPr
    ojec官
    s
    Ag g r
    e ga tionofmul tiples eri
    a la ndpa rallela ctivitie si swe llillustratedi namode l
    o fla rgec ons truc tionpr qjec t
    sde ve lo pe dbyJ a ckHo me r( Ho me re ta l.1 993 ). The
    clie ntwa samul t
    ina tiona lf ores tpr o duc tsc ompa n y, Spe cifica l
    lyt hed i
    v isio no fthe
    co mpa n yt ha td esignsa ndbui ldspul pa ndpa pe rmi lls. Co mpe t
    it
    ionf o rt hes ma ll
    numbe ro fmi llsbui lte achye arwa si ntens i
    fy i
    nga st hei nd ustryg l
    o ba l
    iz ed, a ndt he
    firm,a lre adyal eade r ,sa wt ha tt or ema ins t
    ro ngt he yha dt odr ama ti
    c allyr ed uce
    thet i
    mer eq uir edt ode signa ndbui ldmi lls.The irgoa lwa st or educ es i
    gni fica ntl
    y
    thet otalc yc let ime ,fr omt heha nds ha kewi thac us to me rt ot heha ndof fofawo r
    k-
    1ngmi ll,wi thout inc re asingc os ts.The yk newt raditio na lpr ojec tma na ge me ntt e C
    h-
    nlq ue SWe reno ta de qua te:t hede signa ndc ons truc tionpr oc e s
    si se xc e edi ngly
    co mpl ex, wi tht i ghtc o upl ingsa mongt hepha se s,a ndt heyha da lr
    e adydo nea llthe
    ea syt hings .The yde cide dt od e ve lopas yste md yna mi csmode lo fthee nt iree ng i
    -
    ne ering, proc ur e me nt ,a ndc ons truc tion( EPC)pr oc e ss･
    Ea rlyme e tingsO ft hep roje ctt ea mf ocus edo nt hemode lbounda rya nda gg re
    -
    ga tion, inpa r ticular ,de scrlPtlOnSO ft hes t
    oc ka n dflo ws truc tureofat y pic alpr o-
    jec t.Ma nyI ss ue sWe rer aised:I st he r
    eat ypic alpr oject?How muc hde tailis
    ne ede d?Wha ta ctivi tiesc ouldbea gg reg atedt og e the r?Oneme mbe roft hec lie
    nt
    teama rgue dt ha tthemod elco ul dn' tbeus efulifi td id nフt r
    e pr esente ve rye ng lne er
    -
    1ngd rawl ng, e ve rypur cha seo r de r,a nde veryc ompo ne nti ns tall
    eda tthes i
    te. Ob-
    vio us ly,s uchamode lc ouldne verbebui lto rma d eus ef ul.Ot he rme mbe rso fthe
    clientt e ama rgue df o ras i
    mpl era ppr oac h. The ya lre adyha dhi ghl yd is agg r ega t
    e
    sche dulinga ndpl annl ngmod elsba se do nt rad it
    io na lpr o j
    e ctma na ge me ntt oo lsto
    ma na get hede tailc ompl exityo fthepr ojects.The yl acke dat oolt oma na gethed y-
    na mi cc ompl e xl t
    ya ndi n terde pe nde nc i
    e sa mongt hepha sesa nda cti
    vi tie soft he
    PrO JeC t
    S ･
    Af tere xt ens i
    vedi scus sion, ani nitialmo de lbo unda rya ndl eve lofa gg rega tion
    we r es et( Fig ur e6 11 3) .Thef igur ei sahi g h-lev els u bs ystemd iagrams howi ngho w
    pro jec t
    sWe rea gg rega tedi n t
    oar ea sona bl en umbe rofpha ses .Theove ra llpr o jec
    t
    wa sdi vide di ntot woma ins toc ka ndf lo wc ha insr e pres entingP&E( pr oc es sa nd
    eq uipme nt )a ndc ons truc ti
    on. Ea cha cti
    vi tygoe st hr oug hde signpr epa r ation,r e-
    vie w, andd esi gnr e vi sions .Ne xts u ppl iersa res ele cte da ndpur cha seo rde r sa rei s
    -
    sue d.Thes uppl ierst he nf abr i
    c atet hema terialsne e de df ore acha ctivlty･Ont he
    cons t
    ruc tions ide ,hec
    t l
    ie ntfe l
    ti twa sa ccept ablet oa gg rega tea l
    lc onstruct o
    i nma -
    teria s(
    l e.蛋.,s t ructur a ls teel,c onc re tef o r
    ms ,re ba r)i nt oas inglec ate go ry.The
    proce ssa nde qul pme ntS ide ,howe ve r,wa sd ivide di ntot hr eec ategor ies:r eact or
    ve ssel ,ma
    s j ore qui pme nt( e.g.,la rget anks ,pi peline s,a ndc onve yor s),andmi nor
    equi pme nt( e.蛋. ,pumps ,mo tors,va lves,a ndi ns tru me nta tion) .Thedesi gn,pr o-
    cur eme nt,a ndc onstr uc tiono ft he set ype so feq uipme n tareS uf fici
    e ntlydi ffere ntin
    scope ,dur ation,a ndc os ttha tthe yc o uldno tr eas ona blybel umpe dt oget he r.The
    rea ctorve s
    s els ,inpa r t
    ic ular,ha dt obemod e l
    e di nmo rede ta i
    la st heyar et he
    large sts uba s se mbl y ,a lmos ta lwa ysf allo nt hec ritic alpa th,a nda ref requen tlya
    bot tlene ckc o ns trainlngC OnS truC tionpr og re ss.Dur ingc ons truc t
    io n,r eact o rves-
    sels ,othe re qul pme nt ,a nds it
    epr epa ra
    tions uc ha sf ounda tionsa ndgr adi ngal l
    Cha
    pte
    r6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndFl
    ows 219

    GURE6
    FI -
    13 Bui
    l
    dingapul
    pandpapermi
    l
    l
    Subsys t
    em diagr
    am showr ngfl
    owsofengl neenng,Pr ocurement,andcons t
    ruct
    ionwor kinamodelof
    apul pm‖const r
    ucti
    onpr oject
    .Thedi agram iHustr
    atesthesect orboundari
    esandl evelofaggregat
    ion
    withoutshowlngall
    detail
    s.Eachbl ockr epresentsapr oJeCtPhase,modeledwithagener icmodulewith
    roughlythesamest r
    uctur
    e. Ani nternalgatecapt urestheconst r
    aint
    sonwor kavailabl
    ewi t
    hinaphase
    asaf uncti
    onofthewor kcompl eted.Forexampl e,foundat i
    onscannotbecompl eteduntilsur
    veylng
    andsi t
    epreparat
    ionaredone;Seesec ti
    on14. 5.

    Sour Homere
    ce: tal
    .(1993).

    mustcometoge
    ther,f
    ollowedbyaf
    unc
    tional
    it
    ychec
    kout
    ,st
    rt
    a -
    upa
    nd,f
    inal
    ly,
    ha
    ndofFtot
    hecust
    omer .
    EachblockinFigure6-
    13r epresentsaprojectPhase･Themodelconsi
    stedof
    agene ri
    cpr o
    jectPhasemodule,replicatedforeachbl ockandli
    nkedass hown･
    Eachmodul econtai
    nedastockandf low st
    ructureincludi
    ngthef
    lowsoft as
    ks
    wi
    t hinthephasealongwit
    hs cheduleddea dl
    ines,thelaborfor
    cededi
    catedtothe
    22
    0 P
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    Thi
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    ng

    pha se,wor ke rpr oduc t


    ivl
    y,f
    t atiguel eve ls
    ,e l
    TO rr ates,a ndc osts.Thes tocka nd
    lo
    f ws tuc
    r turef ort askswi thinapha s emo delsthepr og ressi
    o noft asksf romba se-
    wo rkt hr oughc ompl e ti
    on( Figur e6- 14) Jnge ne ralthet a s
    kst obec ompl etedi na
    pha sec a no nlybedonea su pstreamt asksu po nwhi cht he yde pe nda r
    ec o mpl eted
    (ther atea twhi chba sewo rkt asksbe co mea va il
    a ble).Fore xampl e ,ther eactorve s
    I
    selsc an notbee re ct
    edo nsiteunt ilthe i
    rf ounda tionsa rec ompl eted. Like wise ,not
    alltaskswi thinag l
    Ve npha sec anbedo neconc u rrentl
    y. Fo rexa mpl e ,thed etailed
    de si
    g no fc onve yo rsa ndpipe li
    ne sbe twe enthec 血ippe rs,reactorve ssels,andpa per
    ma chine scanno tbedo neunt i
    lthehi g h-levelphys icalde signoft hepl antisc om-
    pleted･ The sewi thin-a ndbe twe en-pha sede pe nde nc i
    e swe remode l
    ede xplicitly
    ･
    Thef lowo fwor kf r
    omt hes tocko fta sksa wal t
    lngc ompl e t
    iont ot hes tocko ft asks
    req u
    lnngr eWOr kr epre s
    entst hoset asksc ompl ete dinc orrectlyo rre ndere dobs olete
    byc ha nge sinot he rsubs ystems ･Ge ne raly
    l,error sareno tde t
    ecte di- e diat
    e lyand
    thede l ayi nthedi scove ryo fre wo r
    kc anbes ubs tantial,a swhe nade s i
    gne rro
    ri s
    no tde tectedunt ilcons tr
    uctioni nt hef ieldisunde rwa y. Thedi s
    c ove r
    yo fre wo rk
    mov e st askst houg htt obec ompl eteba c kintot hes tockoft asksa wa lt
    lngC O mpl e-
    tion( seeFo rda ndSt e rma n1 998 bf orade t
    aileda ndf ullydo cume ntedmod e lofa
    mul ti
    pha sepr qe ctsimi l
    art otheoneus edhe re;s eea lsot hes hipbui l
    dingpr q】ect
    mo de lde scribedi nse ct
    ion2. 3).
    Themode lwa ss ubstantiallys i
    mpl ertha nthec l
    ie ntfirm' sde tail
    edpr oject
    planni ngmod el,whi c hinc lude dliterallytho usa ndso fi ndiv i
    d uala c t
    iviti
    e s(hig h
    de t
    ailc ompl exity)butnof eedba ckl oo ps(nod yna mi cc o mple xity).Itwa sd is
    a g-
    grega tede no ught oc apturei mpo r t
    anti nterdepe nde ncie sa mongde sign, pro cure-
    me nt,a ndc ons tructiona cti
    v it
    iesa ndbe t
    we enc o nstructiona ndt heva ri
    o usty peso f

    F]GURE6- 14
    Stockan df lo
    w
    str
    uc tureo ftasks
    inapr ojectphase
    Simpl i
    fiedr epre-
    sen t
    a ti
    ono fthe
    stockand刊 Ow
    str
    u ctureo fa
    phas ei nthepu l
    p
    millpro j
    ectmodel
    Deter mi n
    an tsof
    theflowsandcou-
    pll
    ngSamongt he
    dif
    feren tph ases
    aren o tsho wn.
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndFl
    ows 221

    e qulpme nt.Themode lc oul dc aptur es hiftsi nt hec ri


    tic alpa tht hatmi ghtr e s
    ul t
    frompol iciesa cce lerati
    ngt hef abrica tiono ft her eac torve ssels,apol icyf avor edby
    somec lientt eamme mbe rs.
    Itisi mpor tantt onot et ha tthepr oce ssofde ve lopl ngt hef ina lleve lofa ggr-e
    ga tioninvol vedanumbe rofi tera ti
    onsa ndr evi s
    io ns .Andt hought hemode lrepr e-
    se ntsthepr ojec tatahi ghl eve lofa gg r ega tion, themode lingt eamde velope dma ny
    mor ede tailedd iagr ams . Thes emor ede tailedma pshe lpe dt hemode lera ndc l
    ie nt
    te amdi s cove rfla wsi nt he i
    rt hinki ng, estima tepa r
    a me ter sbe tt
    e r,a ndde e pe nthe ir
    unde rst
    a ndingo ft hepr oc ess.Andt he yde ve lo pedc onf ide ncet ha tthemor ea ggr e-
    ga ter epr esenta ti
    oni nt hes imul ationmode lwa sa cc e
    pt a blefわrt he i
    rpur pos es o
    the semo rede tail
    e ds toc ka ndf lOws truc t
    ur e sdi dnotha vet obei nc orpor atedi nt o
    themode l
    .
    Thel eve lofde tails electe da lsope rmi t
    t edt hemode lt obec a l
    ibr at
    e da ga l
    nS ta
    wi der angeofda t ac olle ctedononeoft hec ompa ny' sc ur rentEPCpr oje cts.The
    mode ls ucc essfu l
    ly( t
    ha ti s,tot hes a tisfact i
    onoft hec li
    e nt )reproduc eda llr elevant
    pr ojecta ctivities,inc ludi ngt heva riouswo r kfor cesa ndl aborhour s,ove rtimea nd
    re wo rkr at
    e s,pu rcha seor dervol umesa ndr e visionr a tes,ve ndors hi pme nts, andt he
    pr og r
    essofve ss ele rectiona ndc ons truc tion( Figur e6- 15s howsa ne xampl e).
    Whi let hec li
    e ntspr e fernott odi sclos et hede tailsofpol icyr ec omme nda tions ,
    the yvi ewe dt hemode la sc r ediblea ndus e fula ndde ve lope dc onf i
    denc e,s ha re d
    amongt het e am, tha tthemode ldi dagoodj obofr epr ese nt i
    ngt he irEPCpr ojects.
    The yus edt hemode ltoa na lyz ema nypol icie sa ndi de nti fiedse ve ralwhi c h,whi le
    pr evious lya ppe a
    r lngt Obedes irabl e,i nf ac tge ne ratedha rmfuls idee ffe cts.The
    mode la lsohe lpedi dent if
    ypol i
    c i
    est ha tre duc e dpr o jectde l
    iveryt lmeSbya tlea st
    30%wi thinaf e wye ars. Se ve ralofthepol icie swe renota ppa re
    ntt othec lie ntteam
    orwe rehot lyde ba tedpr iort ot hemode l
    inge fo rt. Themode lingpr oc esshe l
    pe d
    bui ldunde rstandi ngofa ndc ons e nsusa ro undt he sec ont rove rs
    ia lini t
    iati
    ve s,help-
    lngt hef irms uc ce ssfullyi mpl eme ntma nyoft her ec omme ndations .

    o
    r
    Ho
    u
    r
    s
    GURE6
    F日 -
    15 Sampl
    ecompar
    i
    sono
    fhi
    st
    ori
    cal
    andsi
    mul
    at
    edbeh
    avi
    oroft
    hepul
    pmi
    Hmodel

    一
    一
    一
    ●
    一一
    P&E-pr
    oces
    sandequl t
    Pmen.
    Cu
    m.P良EDesi
    gn Lab Gum.Const
    ruct
    ionLaborHour
    s

    ____ Act
    ual ____Act
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    al
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    mul
    at
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    meFSe
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    meu
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    tst
    opr
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    ec
    tcl
    i
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    con
    fi
    den
    ti
    al
    in
    for
    mat
    i
    on.
    ce:H
    Sour o
    meret
    al.(
    1993)
    .
    222 P
    art
    IIT
    わol
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    S.
    3.5 Set
    tingtheMode一Boundary:
    "ChaHengi
    rf
    gtheC萱ouds"
    Ma ppl ngt hes to cka ndf lOw s truc tur eo fas ys temi nvol ve si mpo rta ntd ec isions
    a boutt hebo und aryoft hemo de l･ Inr ea lit
    y ,lo
    f wso fma terial, pe opl e ,andmo ne y
    int oas tockha vet oc omef ro ms ome whe re;t hef lowso utha vet ogos ome whe re.
    Toke epyourmode l sma na ge abl e,yo umus ttr unc a tet hes ec ha insus i
    ngS ou rce s
    a nds i
    nks ,re pre se nte dint hes toc ka ndf lowma psby" clouds " ;s eeFi gure61 1.
    So ur cesa nds inksr epr esentt hes toc kss uppl yi ngma t erialtoora bs orbi ngma terial
    fr omt hemo de leds ys t
    em･ So ur ce sa nds inksa rea s sume dt oha vei nf initec apa c it
    y
    a ndc anne ve rc ons trainthef lowst he ys uppor t .Int her e alwo r ld, hes
    t t
    o ckss up-
    pl yi ngo ra bs or bingmowsha vef i nitec a pa cltya nddoi nf
    lue nc et hef lo ws .Whe n
    yo ut runc a teas tocka ndf lOwc ha inwi thac lo udyo ua res et t
    ingt hebo unda ryof
    themod el-s toc ksa ndflowsbe yo ndt hispo lnta reI g no red; yo ue xc ludea llpos si-
    bl ef e edba c ksf ro mo rinte rac tionswi tht hes to c ksout sidet hebo unda ry .
    Asamode le ryo umus tc r i
    tic allye xa mi net he sebounda rya ssumpt lOnS ;yo u
    mus t,int hewor dso fBa n'yRi chmo nd( 19 93, p.1 3 2) ,"c ha l
    le nget hec louds ."I si t
    a ppr o prlatef oryo urpur pos et oe xc ludet hes toc kso ut sidet hebou nda ryoft he
    mode l
    ?Wha tf ee dba c ksi gno r edbyyo urmo de lmig hte xis tint her ea lwo rld,a nd
    mi ghtt he ya ffec tyo urpo li
    c yr eco mme nda tions ?Ca nt hes our ce sf ort heflO wsbe
    d epl eteda ndc ons traint hei nflow?Ca nt hes in ksbef il
    le da ndbl oc kt heo utlows
    f ,
    ba c kingu pt hes yst eml ikeac logge dd ra in?
    Cons ide rthea uto mo bi l
    ei nd us try ･As toc ka ndf lowma pf ora uto mo bilepr -o
    d uc io
    t nmi ght be g inwi t
    hpr o duc tio ns tarts, WI Pi nve nto ry,p rod uc tion, fi
    nishe di n-
    ve nt o r
    y ,a nds hi pme nts( Fi gur e6- 1 6) .Dr awi ngt hema pwi thas our cef o rt he
    pr oduc tions tartflOwpr e sume stha tt hes uppl yo fpa r tsisun li mi te da ndc a nne ve r
    c ons traint hep ro d uc tions tartr ate .Li ke wi se ,be c aus es hipme ntsf lowt oas i
    nk, the
    mode l
    erha sa ss ume ds t
    o cksofpr od uc ti nt heha ndso fde ale rsa ndc us tome rsha ve
    noe ffec to ns hi pme nt s･Inc hall eng i ngt hec lo udsyo ua skwhe the rt he sea ssump-
    tionsa rer e asona ble .Fo rt hea utoi nd us tryt he ya renot .Pr oduc tions ta r
    tsr eq ulre
    thea utoma ke rt oha vea na d eq ua tes toc ko fpa rts. Ye tpa rtss toc ksma ye asilybe
    de pl eted.Suppl iersc annotr e spo ndi ns ta ntlyt oc ha nge si npa rtso rde rs.La rgeor -
    de rsma yo utstripS uppl ierc apa clty, le adi ngt os ho rtag e s･As t
    r i
    kea tas uppl i
    e rma y
    inte rruptt hef l
    owofpa rtst ot hef irm. Att heo there nd,S hipme nt so fne wc arst o
    de ale rsde pe ndo nt hes i
    z eo fde ale rs toc ks . De alersgene rallyt ryt oma intaina bo ut
    40t o60da yso fi nve ntoryo nt he irl o ts; thisi se no ught opr o videg oo ds el
    ec t
    io nf or
    co ns ume rswi tho utc a r
    ry l
    nge xc es sivea ndc os tlyInve n tory .Ifs to cksa rel owr ela -
    tivet ot heirt arge ts,de alerso rd ermo r ef romt hema n uf actu rers ;ifs to cksa rehi gh,
    he
    t yc utba ck. Fi gur e6- 1 7e xpa ndst hemode lbounda ryt oc apt ur et he see fe c ts.
    Themode lnowr epr esen t
    st hr e ed isti nc to rga ni za t
    iona le ntities-S up pl i
    ers, ma n u-
    fac tur ers, andde a l
    e rs.Thei n ve nto ryo fpa rtshe ldbyt hema nuf ac t
    ur e risno we x-
    plic it.Thes uppl ierha st hes ameba sics truc tur ea st hea utoma ke r:as toc kof
    finis he di nve ntor ya ndas toc ko fwo rki npr oc e ss.Att hes hipme nte nd, ma nuf ac-
    ture rs hipme ntsnol o nge rd isa ppe a ri n toas inkbutf lowi ntod ea lers to cks, allowl
    lngyo ut Omode lthepur cha ser atea saf unc tionoft hed ea leri nv ent o rya nds ales
    toc us t
    ome rs.
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 223

    GURE6
    Fl ･
    16 Source.
    ･
    Init
    ialstockand Unli
    mi t
    ed
    fl
    owmapf or supplyof ヽ
    theau tomobi 一
    e
    industry,showlng
    themodel
    boundar y
    Thes ourcesan d
    sinksf orthe
    fl
    owst hrough
    thes ys t
    emar e
    assumedt obe
    i
    nf i
    nit
    eandcan
    havenoi mpacton
    thed yn amics･

    Absorpt
    ion J
    Capaci
    ty

    Youc oul da nds houl dc ontinuet oc ha llenget hebounda ryoft hemode l


    . The
    mode lnowa llowsyout or epresents uppl ie ror de rpr oces s
    lng,I nve ntoryma nage -
    me nt,andde livery,inc ludingt hepos s
    ibilityt ha tsuppl iersc anbe c omeabot tleneck
    ands ta
    r vea ut omo bilepr od uc t
    ion･ Butnowt hes uppl iersa r
    eas s ume dt oha veun-
    limit
    edpa rtsa ndr awma t
    er i
    a l
    sa vailability.I st hisa ppr opriat
    e?I tdepe ndsont he
    mode lpur pos e. Yo uc ouldc ontinuet oe xpa ndt hemode lbounda rybya ddi ngt he
    supplie
    r stot hes uppl iers,andt he i
    rs uppli ers,a nds oo n,unt i
    lyour e
    a c
    he dt hepoi nt
    whe reiti sa c ceptablet oa ssumet hatt hes uppl yofma terialstot hef a rthestup-
    stre
    ams uppl ierisunl imi ted.Al tema ti
    ve ly, yot lCOul dr epresentthee ntireups t
    re am
    supplyc ha inbyas lngl eaggr ega t
    es uppl iers tage.
    Thema ps ho wni nFi gure61 17a lsoa s sume stha tde alers al
    e sflOwi ntoas ink
    sotherei snof e e
    dba c kf r
    omt hes tockofc a rsont her oa dt opur cha sesofne wc ars.
    Thisisobvi ous lyaba da ssumpt lOn:Sa l
    esofne wc arsde pe ndont henumbe ra nd
    ageoft hec ar spe oplea l
    readyha ver el
    a ti
    vet ot he i
    rne e ds･Pe oplewhoha vej usta c-
    quiredane wc ara
    reunl ike l
    yt obuya not he rf ors eve ralye ars,untilt he irloa ni s
    paidoff, the irl easee xpi r
    e s,Orthe irca risi nvol ve di na na cc i
    de nta ndmus tber e -
    placed( Sees ec t
    ion2. 2) .Figur e6- 18e xpa ndst hedowns treame ndoft hes toc ka nd
    lowma
    f pt oi nc l
    ud et hes t
    oc kofc arsont her oa d.
    Youc anc onti
    nuet oc ha ll
    enget hemode lbounda ry.Wha tha ppe nst ot he
    carswhe nt he ya res cr apped?I nt hec ur r
    e ntma p,the ys impl ydi sappe ar.Inr ea l
    ity,
    theydon' t.I nNor t
    hAme ricas ome1 0t o1 2mi lli
    onve hiclesa r
    es cra ppe dpe r
    year.Roughl y9 4% a res hr eddeda ndt hes te ela nds omenonf e rr
    ousme t
    a l
    sa r e
    224 P
    ar I¶)
    tI ol
    sfo
    rSy
    ste
    msTh
    lnk
    ing

    GURE6
    Fd -
    17
    Chal
    lengmgt
    he
    c一
    ouds
    Addingasuppl l
    er
    an ddea一 ersec t
    or
    t
    ot hes tockand
    fl
    owchai nfor
    au t
    omobi lepro- Suppli
    er
    du ct
    ion.Rec tan一 Seet
    or
    g】eswi t
    hr ounded
    cornersdenot e
    t
    heboundar i
    es
    betweendi f
    ferent
    organizationalen-
    t
    iti
    esanddeci sion-
    mak inguni t
    s.

    Manuf
    acturer
    Sector

    Deal
    er
    Seet
    or

    r
    ecover
    ed,O neofthehi
    ghestrecyc
    lingfract
    ionsofanyindust
    ry･Howe ver,s
    ome
    c
    arsendupa bandoneda
    sda nger
    ouse ye
    soresonthesideoft
    heroad･Andmuc hof
    t
    heplast
    ic,glass
    ,andot
    hernonme talma t
    eri
    alsendupi nla
    ndfil
    ls,cons
    ti
    tutl
    nga
    s
    igni
    fic
    antso ur
    ceofpoll
    ut
    ion( morethantwobi l
    li
    ondiscar
    dedtir
    e s
    ,mos tsi
    tt
    ing
    i
    nhugepi l
    esa c
    rosst
    hecountry,
    havea l
    readyaccumulate
    dintheUS) ･
    Cha
    pte
    r6 St
    ocksa
    ndFl
    ows 225

    GURE6
    FI -
    18
    Expanded
    aut
    omobil
    emodel
    Theboundar ynow
    i
    ncl udesthes t
    ock
    ofc arsonthe peaJ
    er
    road, whi
    chf eeds Seet
    or
    backt oinf.
    uence
    salesofnewcar s.

    Househol
    d
    Sector

    6ど
    3,6 Sys
    tem Dynami
    csinAct
    ion二
    Aut
    omobHeReeyeI
    !咽
    j
    Byt hemi d1 990S,a sl andf ill
    sf illeda nde nvironme ntala wa renes sgr ew,pr ess
    ure
    bui l
    tt or e cyc l
    emo reoft hema t
    e ri
    a linc ars.Ge rma nyde ba t
    e dal a wt hatwoul dr e
    -
    qui rea utoma nufa cturerst ot akeba ckt heiroldc a rswhe npe oplede reglSt
    ered
    the m. Pus he dbyt he sef orc es,thea utoi ndus tr
    y,firstinEur opea ndt heni ntheUS,
    be gant os tudywa yst oinc reaset her ecove r
    yofpa r
    tsa ndt her ec yclingofma teri
    -
    alsf romc ars.
    Pa ve lZa mud io- Ra mi rez( 1996)mode ledpa rtre cove r
    ya ndthema terial
    srecy-
    clingl nt heUSa utoi ndus t
    r ytohe lpt hei ndus t
    ryt hinka boutaf u tureofe nhanced
    aut or ec yc l
    ing.Fi gur e6- 19S howsas i
    mpl i
    fieds toc ka ndnows truc t
    urea dapted
    fromt hemode l.Ol dorwr ecke dc ar scane i
    he
    t rbes crappe dl egally( soldt oajunk-
    yardo rdi sma ntler)o rill
    e ga ll
    ya bandone d. Thes tockofa ba ndone d,of t
    enbur ne
    -d
    out ,ca rsi sabl i
    gh tont hel ands capea nds i
    gnificants our ceofpo llution. Thereare
    twoout lowsf
    f romt hes toc kofi l
    lega llya bandone dc ars :Di sma nt l
    erswi l
    lprocess
    themi ft heva l
    ueoft her ec over ablepa rt
    sa ndma terialsi shi ghe nough. Alt
    erna-
    tively, ill
    e ga l
    lyd umpe dc a rsc anbec oll
    e cted(saybyl oc algov emme nts)a ndtaken
    tos hre dde rsf orp rope rdi spos al.Bot ht hes eflowsa rere lative l
    ys ma ll,sot hestock
    ofa ba ndone dc ar
    sc anbui ldupt ohi ghl e
    ve lseveni fthea ba ndonme ntrateislow.
    Ca rshe ldi nt hedi sma ntlers'i nvent oriesares trlppe doft hos epa rtswhos e
    va l
    uee xc eeds血ec ostofr ecove ry.Thes epa rtse nteraus edpa r t
    ss t
    ocka nda re
    thens oldt or epairshopsa ndus edt or eplacewo no rda ma gedpa rt
    sono perat
    lng
    ca r
    s ･Int hi sma p,thepa rtus a
    ger ateflowsi ntoas ink･ I na ctuality,the sepa r
    tsare
    installe di nc arsstillont her oa da nde ve ntua l
    lyflowa gaint hro ught hes cr
    apor
    aba ndonme ntrate.Si ncet henumbe rofr ecoveredpa rtsi sve rys ma llr el
    ativetothe
    totlf
    a lowo fma t
    erialsthr ought hes ystem,t hisomi ssioni spr obabl yr easonable･
    226 Pa
    rtI
    I To
    olsf
    orSys
    temsTl
    l
    ink
    ing

    GURE6
    FI ･
    19 St
    ockandf
    lowmapf
    oramodel
    ofau
    tomobi
    l
    erec
    ycl
    i
    ng
    Thestockandf l
    ows tr
    uctur
    eforthedevelopmentofnewvehicl
    ep一at
    for
    ms,def
    inl
    ngthemassand
    materi
    al
    scomposi t
    ionofcarsancHevelofdesi
    gnfordisas
    sembly,[
    Snotshown.Themodeli
    ncludesa
    para"
    elstockandflows t
    ruct
    ure(co-
    fl
    ow)t r
    acki
    ngeachoftheseproper
    ti
    esasvehicl
    esageandare
    event
    uall
    yreti
    red,dismantl
    ed,andshredded.Seechapter12.
    Cha
    pte
    r6 St
    ocksa
    ndFl
    ows 227

    Af t era ll pa rtswor thr ec ove ringa rer e move d, t


    hegut tedc ar, nowca lle dahul k,
    iss ol dt oas hr edde r.I nthemi d1 990st herewe rea bout200S hr edde rsi nt heUS
    whopr oc e sse dr oughl y94%ofa llde r egl S
    te redc ars･Af ters hr eddi ng,t heva lua ble
    ma t
    e ria ls( pr incipa llys t
    ee la nds omeno nferrousme tals )a res epa ratedoutf orr e-
    c yc ling. Ift hepr lCeSOft her ecove redma t e
    ia
    r lsdon' tjus tifyt hec os t,Shr e dde rsc an
    ta kehul ksdi rectlyt oal and丘l la ndc utt heirpu r chase sf romdi sma nt lers .Wha tre一
    ma insa fters hr ed dinga nds epa rationi sami xtur eofpl a sics
    t ,gl ass, elastome rs,and
    someunr ecove re dme talca lleda ut omot ives hr edde rr es idue( ASR)or"f luf f ,
    "
    whi c hi st he nl andf me d.ASRi soneoft hema j ore nvi ronme nt alc onc ernsge ner-
    at edbyt hedi spos alofol dc ars .
    Ther e cyc labl ema teria l
    sa ccumul atei na ni nve ntor ya nda ree ve ntua llys oldt o
    ma t
    e ria lspr oc es sorss ucha ss t
    e elmi l
    ls .Thei nve nt oryofr a wma t
    e rial sist he n
    us e dt oma nuf a cturene wpr oduc ts ,inc ludi nga utomobi le s,thushe lpingt oc r eatea
    cl ose dma terilf
    a lOwa ndc uttingt heus eofnonr e newa bler esour ces. Asi nthec ase
    ofpa rts ,thema terialsus ager ateflowsi ntoas inks inc et hef lowofr ec ove r
    e dma -
    ter ialsr ela t
    ivet ot het ot alflowofvi rginma te rialsiss ma l
    l .
    Za mudi o- Ra mi rez'smode linc lude dar ichf eedba c ks tr uctur er epr es entlngt he
    be ha vi oroft hev ariousa ctor sint hes ys tem, inc ludingt hea ut oma ke rs, ca rowne r s
    ,
    di sma nt le rs,a nds hre dde rs.Ma rke t sfo rr e cove redma t
    e rialswe ree xpl icit.The
    stoc ka ndf lOws truc tur ef ora utosbe ga na tthedes igns ta gef orne wmode lsa nd
    pl atfor msa ndt ra ckedke ypr ope rt iesoft hec ar sinc ludi ngt he irma ss ,ma terials
    co mpos ition( ferrous ,nonf err ous ,pl astic s),andt hel eve lofde signf ordi s assembl y
    bui l
    ti nt ot hede sign.The s ea ttribut e swe ret r acke da st hec arse mbodyi ngt he m
    move df romt hede signs taget oma rke t,a ge,a nda ret he nr etired,di s
    ma ntled,a nd
    shr e dde d.
    Tbga the rt her equi redda ta ,
    Za mudi o-Ra mi rezc onduc te di ntervi ewswi thva r-
    iousa c tors ,inc ludi ngc arma ke rs,di sma nt l
    er s,shr edde rs, andi ndus trya na lystsa nd
    ma dee xt ens iveus eofva riousa ut oa ndr ec yc l
    ingi ndus tryda taba se s.Someoft he
    da tar e qui re d,s u cha sa ge- de pende nts cr a
    pr atesf orca rs,we rer ela t
    ive lye a syt o
    ga the r .Ot he rke ypa r
    a me te rswe renot .Twoc riticalr ela t
    ions hipsi nt hemode la re
    thes uppl yc ur ve sf orr ecove r edpa rtsa ndr e cove re dma te rials･ Tha ti s,howwi l
    lthe
    numbe rofpa rtsr ecove redbydi sma ntle rsva rya sthepr lC et he yc ange ta nd也e
    cos t
    so fr ec ove ryv∬y?
    Es tima tlngt hepa rtss uppl yc ur vei sada unt l
    ngpr obl em. Thepr lnC lpa lc ostof
    re cove ryl St hel abort imer e quire dt or e moveapa rt･Butt het imer equi re dt or e-
    moveagl Ve npa rtde pe ndsonhowma nyot he rpa rt
    smus tber e move df irst.Thes e
    pr ec ede nc er elations hipsde pe ndont hede si
    gnof血ec ara ndt heva lueo fthei n-
    ter ve ningpa rts( Cant hes ea tber ippe doutq uic klyt oge ta tava lua blepa rtunde rit
    ormus ti tber e move dc areful ly?Shoul dwor ke rsge ta tapa rtfr om i nf rontorbe -
    hi nd? ).Tbes tima tethes er elations hipsZa mudi o-Ra mi rezwo rke da tt heVe hi cle
    Re cyc lingPa rtne rship, ac ons ort
    iumoft hel iigThr eeUSa ut oma ke rs,di sma ntlers,
    andt her e cyc lingi ndus t
    ry. TheVe hi cleRe cyc lingPa rtne rshi pas sembl e dac om-
    pr ehe ns iveda taba seofpa rtr emova lt ime sbyc ompl ete lydi sas sembl ingava riety
    ofl atemode lc ars.Za mudi o- Ra mi reza ndhi sc ollea gueAndr ew Spi c ert he nde -
    ve lope da nopt imi za t
    ionmode ltoe s ti
    ma tet hes uppl yc ur vef orpa rtsr e cove rya s
    func tionsofpa r
    ta ndma t
    e rialspr lCeS ,la bo rc os ts,andt hede signoft heve hi cles･
    Theo pt l
    mi z ationmode lde te rmi ne dt henumbe rofpa rtswor thr ecove r lnga nd也e
    228 P
    art
    IIT
    わol
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    o ptlma ld isma nt l
    ingo rd erf o ra nys e tofpr ic es,labo rc osts,a ndde signpa rae
    -
    m
    te rs-t hes uppl yc u rvef orr ec o ve redpa rts. Ther e s
    ul tso ft heo pt l
    mi z
    a t
    io nmode l
    we ret he ne mbe dde di nt hes imul a t
    ionmode l .Ast hede signpa rame tersf orc a r
    s
    cha ngea ndt her emo va lt imef o rke ypa rtsf a lls
    ,thee stima te ds uppl yc ur ver e
    -
    spo ndsbyr ealisti
    ca llyi nc rea slngt henumbe ra ndt ype so fpa rtsr ec overe d.
    Tho ug ht hes tocka ndf lo ws truc tu rei nFi gure61 19i ss impl ifi
    e da nddo esnot
    showa nyo ft hef ee dba cks tr uc tured e ter mi nl ngt heva riousf lowsf rom t hef ull
    mo de l, i
    ti l
    lus t
    r at
    est her espo ns eo ft hea ut omo bilea ndma terialsma r
    ke tst opo li
    -
    c iesd esi
    g ne dt oinc rea ser ec yc lingo fc ars .
    Fi rstc ons i
    de rthee ffec to fade signf o rdi s assembl y( DFD)pr og ramd e signe d
    toi nc rea sethepa rtre co ver yr a t
    ea ndr ed uc et hea mo unto ff
    luf fe ndingu pl nl and-
    fi11S･ DFDc anr educ et hel abo rc os tofpa r tr ec overyt hr oug hbe tterde si
    g n, d i
    ffe r
    -
    en tc ho iceo fpa r
    tfas ten ers, i
    mp rove ds ele ctio na ndl abe lingo fma t
    erials, ando ther
    tec hni que s.Th ef irste fe c tis ".no th ing. The rei sal a gofa tle asts eve ralye arsbe -
    twe ent het imea naut o ma ke rs t
    a rtsaDFDpr og rama ndt het imet hef irstc arsde -
    slgne dt ot hos es pe c sr ollo fft hea sse mbl yl ine.Thea ve ragec ari nt heUni ted
    St ate sstayso nt heroa df ora bo utade c ade , a ndne wc arsha veve ryl o ws cra pr ates
    (mos to ft he s
    ea rewr ecksde cla redt ota llos sesbyi ns ura nc ec ompa ni es).Onl ya f
    -
    terade l
    ayofma nyye arswi llthes toc ko fr e cyc l
    ing- re adyc ar sbel argee noug h
    ando lde noug hf ort he mt oc ons tituteas igni ficantf ra ctionoft hes c
    r appe dc ars
    pur c ha sedbydi sma ntler s.
    Wha tthe nha ppe ns ?Ma nuf a ctur erse x pe cte
    dDFD wo ul de ve ntua l
    lyc aus e
    pa rta ndma terialr eco ve ryt or ise ,pe rma ne nt l
    yr ed uc ingt henowofma terialst o
    landf ills.Ins t
    e ad, t
    hemo de ls ug ge stst hene xte ffectwi ll beagl uto fus edpa rs
    t, as
    thepa rtre cove ryr ater ise sa bovet heus edpa rtsus a ger ate.Aspa rtsi nve nt ories
    bui ld,t hepr i
    c edi sma ntlersc ange tf o rus edpa rt
    sf alls .Thenumbe rofpa rtstha t
    ca nbee co nomi cal
    lyr eco ve re dd rops , andt hedi s
    ma ntlingr ated ropsba ck. Pr i
    c es
    cont i
    n uet of allun t
    i lthenumbe rofpa rtsr e cove redf allse nou ght oba la nc et he
    us edpa rtsus ager a
    te. Thepa rtus ager atema yr lSe,Stimul atedbyl owe rpr lC eS,but
    unl e ssthede ma ndf orus edpa rtsi shi ghlypr ic eelastic ,thepa rtr eco veryr atewi l
    l
    dr opba ckc los et oi tso rlg lna lr a t
    epr iort ODFD･Thede ma ndf orus edpa r
    tsi s
    like lyt ober atherins ens itivet op rl
    C e. Aut oma kersa ndt hi rd-pa rtypr od uc ersofr e-
    pla ce me ntpa rtswi ll ber eluc ta nt tol os et hel uc r at
    ivepa rtsma rke ta ndma ybea bl e
    topr ohibitt heus eofr eco ve redpa rtsbya ut ho r i
    z e
    ds ervi cec ent erso rf orwa rran ty
    repa lrSO rC O mpe t
    eO npr lC eJft hede ma ndf o rus edpa rtsi sine la s
    tic, t
    hep rlnC l
    pa l
    eff ecto fDFDmi ghts impl ybet ode pre sst hepr i
    c eOfus edpa rts,O ffsettlngmos t
    oft hebe ne fitofi mpr ove dd es ign.
    Nowc ons iderthee ffec tofat re ndt o wa rds ma ller ,light erc ar swi ths ignif i
    -
    ca ntlyhi g herpl ast
    icc on t
    e nta ndl esss tee la ndme tal.Suc hc hange sa repr o mo te d
    toi mpr oveal ele cono my ,1nC re aS epa rtr eCOVe r abil
    ity, andde c rea setheq ua ntltyOf
    luf
    f fe ndingupl nl and f
    ills. Howe ve r,thes toc ka ndf lOws truc tur ema yc a us ethe
    impa c tofs uc hpol icie stobec o unt ert ot he iri ntent.Thea ut oind ustryl SaS ignif i
    -
    ca ntc ons ume ro fstee l.Whe nne wc arsbe g int ous ele ss, t
    her e co veryo fs t
    e el丘.o m
    shr edd ingofo l
    dhu l
    ksc ontinue sa tthepr io rr a te･Thepr ic eO fs crapme talwi llfa ll
    ,
    red uc ings hr edde rpr ofitabi li
    ty. Thenu mbe rofhul kss hr edd eda ndt heq ua ntlt
    yOf
    Ch
    apt
    er6 S
    toc
    ksa
    ndF
    lows 229

    me tal
    sr ecove redma yf all
    , andt hevo lumeo fflufd isposedi nland fi
    llsma ya ctu-
    a l
    lyris
    e･ Fur ther,onc et hes crapr ateo fc arswi t
    hr e duc edst eelc ontenti nc reases,
    shredderpr of itcanf a l
    lf urt
    he r.Wi hl
    t e
    s ss t
    e ela ndnonf erro usc ontent ,sh redde r
    revenuepe rhul kfa l
    ls,whi let hef i
    xe dc os tso fshr eddi ngrema inthes a me . Za mu-
    dio-Rami rezf わu ndt hatas ustaine di ncrea sei nthepl a s
    ti
    cc ontentofc a rs,a se x-
    pected,Woul di ncr
    e asethef rac t
    iono fma t
    erialsre cove redbydi sma ntlers .But cars
    wi t
    hl essre cyc l
    ableme talc oulda l
    sode pre sshul kpr icesenought oc uts h redde r
    pro恥 de crea sethes hredd i
    ngr at
    e ,anda ctuallyinc re asethen umbe ro fa ba nd one d
    crsa
    a ndt hea mo unto ffluffbu r
    iedi nl and fil
    ls .
    Thes toc ka ndflOwma phe lpsi llustratet hel ongde l
    aysbe twee nac ha ngei n
    thede s
    igno fc arsandt heflowso fo l
    dc arstol and fi
    lls ,Byma kingt hes toc kso fre-
    Cove r
    edpa rtsa n
    dma te
    rialse xplicit,itise asiertos eet hatthe reisimpe rfec tc oor-
    dinati
    onbe twe eni nf
    lo wsa ndo utlows
    f ,l e adingt opot e ntialimba lanc e sa nd
    change sinpr lCeS也a tinvalida t
    e血ea ssumpt lOnSbe hindre cyc l
    ingpr ogr ams ･I
    n-
    sti
    tuti
    ona lstruc t
    uress ucha sr equlreme ntStha tservic ec enter
    sus enewr epl aceme nt
    partscanove rwh elmt hel og i
    coft hema rke t.Ma r ketme chani sms ,evenwhe np re-
    sent,arenotl ike l
    yt owo rks moo thly ,pos siblyl ea dingt oi nstabili
    tya ndi ne f
    fi-
    ciency.Si mi lardyna ic
    m sha v ea l
    re adybe eno bse r
    ve dinthema rketf orr e cyc l
    e d
    paper(Ta ylo r1 9
    9 9).Su pplys ides tepst oinc rea s
    er ec yc l
    abil
    itya lonea reno tlike ly
    tobee fe ctiveu nlessma tchedbypol iciest oi ncre a
    s etheus a geofr e cove redpa rts
    andma terials･Thec ollectionofr ecyc lablema er
    t i
    a lsa ndthea ctualr ecyc lingof
    thosema teria l
    sa ren't血es ame仙i ng.

    6.
    4 SL
    BMMARY
    Thi sc ha pterintr
    o duc edthes toc ka ndflowc onc e pt.Stocksa ccumul at
    ethe i
    ri n-
    lo
    f wsl essthe i
    rou tlows
    f .St oc ksa ret
    hes ta teso ft hes ystemu po nwhi chde cisions
    anda ctionsa reba sed,a r
    et hes ourceo fi ne rtiaa ndme moryl nS ystems ,Cre a
    tede -
    1ays,a ndge nerat
    ed isequil
    ib riumd yna mi c sbyde co upli
    ngr ate so ff
    lo w.Thed ia-
    gramml ngnot at
    ionf ors toc ksa ndf lOwsc anbeus edwi thawi der angeof
    aud ienc esandma ke siteasiert or elat
    eac a us ald i
    a gramt othed yna mi csofthes ys-
    tem･St oc ksa cc
    umul at
    e( integ rate)the i
    ri nf
    lowsl esstheiro utlows
    f .Equ i
    va le
    ntly,
    her
    t ateo fc hangeofas t
    o cki st hetot alinf
    lowl e sst hetotalo utlo
    f w. Thusas to ck
    andf lo wma pc orrespo ndse xa ctlytoas ys temofi ntegralordi fe rentialequa t
    ions.
    Ho we ve r, s
    tocka ndflO wma psa r
    emuc he a siertowo rkwitha nde xplain.
    The rea reseve ralwa yst oi de nti
    fyt hes toc ksi ns ystems . Inthes naps hottest
    youi ma glnef ree
    z i
    ngt hes ys tema tamome ntoft ime -t heme asurablequa nti
    ties
    (phys ical, i
    nforma ti
    o nal,andps yc holog i
    c al)a ret hes tocks,whi l
    eflowsa reno tin-
    stantane ous l
    yobs ervableo rme asurable. Uni tsofme asurec a na l
    s ohe l
    pi dentify
    stocksa ndflows .Ifas t
    oc ki sme asur edi nuni ts ,itsf
    lOwsmus tbeme asuredi n
    unitspe rt imepe riod.
    St ockse xis
    tl
    ngl nS er
    ie si nane two rkc a nbea ggregatedt o getherifthe ya re
    shor t
    -live dre l
    ati
    vet ot hetimeho rizona nddyna mi cso fintere st
    , Mul t
    iplepa r
    a l
    lel
    activitiesc anbea gg r
    ega t
    edi ntoas ingles tocka ndf lowne two rki fthea cti
    vities
    arego verne dbys imi la
    rde ci sionpr oc essesa ndut il
    izes i
    mi l
    a rr esourcesandi fthe
    2
    30 Pa
    rtI
    I To
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    emsTh
    inki
    ng

    r
    esidencetime soft
    hei t
    emsi nthestocksissi
    mila
    re no ughforthepurposeofyour
    mod e
    l.
    So urcesa ndsi
    nksf ort hef
    lOwsi nas ys
    tem ha vei nf
    initecapaci
    ty,unli
    ke
    st
    ocksi nther ea
    lwo rl
    d,a ndthusreprese
    nttheboun da r
    yo fthemode l.Modeler
    s
    s
    houlda lwa yschal
    lengethesebounda r
    ya ss
    umptlOnS,a ski
    ngi ftheass
    umptionOf
    i
    nfi
    nites upplyforsourc
    e sandinfi
    niteabsor
    pt1
    0nC apac i
    tyfors i
    nksisappro
    prla
    te
    r
    elati
    vet othemo delpurpose.
    i
    3i
    {i
    3
    _畠賓毒
    主 ぐ
    §!=
    :
    3
    ぎS極∈
    立至表
    現頭首呈
    ti
    笥享

    Nat
    urel
    aug
    hsatt
    hedl
    Hic
    ult
    ieso
    fint
    egr
    ati
    on.
    -｣)i
    er
    re
    -Si
    mond
    eLa
    pla
    ce(1749-1827)

    Thesu cc
    ess
    e softhedlHer
    enti
    alequati
    onparadi
    gm we reimpress
    iveand
    ext
    ensi
    ve.Man ypr obl
    ems,incl
    udi
    ng basi
    ca nd importantones,ledto
    equat
    ionsthatcoul
    db esol
    ved.Apy1
    0CeSSO
    fs el
    f-
    select
    ionsetin
    ,whe r
    eby
    equat
    ionsth
    atc oul
    dnotbes ol
    vedwe r
    eautomati
    call
    yofl es
    sint
    erestt
    han
    t
    hosethatcoul
    d.
    anS
    -I t
    ewa
    rt(
    1989,
    p.39)
    .

    Cha pter6i ntroduce dthes toc ka ndflOwc onc epta ndt echni quesf orma pplngt he
    stocka ndf lo wn etwo rkso fs ystems .Thischapt erex plorest hebe haviorofs tocks
    andflows .Gi venthed yna mi csoft heflows ,wha tist hebe havioroft hes t
    oc k?
    Fromt hedyna micso ft hes t
    oc k,c anyo uinfT
    ert hebe ha vio roftheflows ?The se
    tasksa ree qul Vale
    ntt oi ntegratingtheflowst oy iel
    dt hes toc kanddi fe rentia t
    ing
    thes t
    oc kt oyi elditsne trateo fc hange.
    TForpe
    √
    ､ opl ewhoha vene ve rst
    udie dc a l
    cu-
    ius,thesec onc e
    p t
    sc ans eemda unting.lnfact,relatingt hed y namicso fstocksa nd
    lowsi
    f sa ctua l
    lyq uiteintuiti
    ve ;ltistheuseofunf amiliarno t
    ati
    ona ndaf oc uso n
    ana l
    ytics olutionstha tde te
    rsma nype oplefroms tudyo fcalculus.
    Wha tifyo uha veas tr
    ongba ckg r
    oundi nc alculusa ndd iff
    erentia
    le qua tions?
    Itisgene rallyno tpos si
    bl etos olvee vensmallmod elsa nalyticall
    yd uetot heirhi gh
    ordera ndno nl i
    neariti
    es ,sothema t
    hema ti
    calt oolsma nype opleha vestudi eda re
    oflittl
    edi re ctuse. Ifyouha vemo rema t
    hema ticalba ckg roundyo uwi l
    lf indt his
    chapters traightforwa rdbuts ho ulds ti
    lldotheg raphicalinte grat
    ione xampl e sa nd
    challenge st obes ureyo urint uiti
    veunde rst
    a ndingl Sa SS Olidasyo urt ec hnic a
    l

    231
    232 P
    ar IT
    tI o
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    emsTh
    ink
    ing

    knowledge｡Modelers
    ,noma tt
    erhowgre
    atorsma l
    lthei
    rtrainl
    ngl nma the
    ma ti
    cs,
    needtobea bl
    etorelatethebehavi
    orofs
    tocksa
    ndflowsi ntuit
    ivel
    y,us l
    nggraPhi -

    Calandothernonma t
    he mati
    caltec
    hni
    ques.
    Thec hapte
    ra l
    soi l
    lus
    trateshowstock
    andf
    lOwdyna micsgiveinsi
    ghtintot
    woimport
    antpol i
    cyissues:globalwarmlng
    andthewa rondrugs.

    7.
    1 RELAT1
    0NS川PBETWEEN STOCKSAND FLOWS
    Recallt
    hebasicdefi
    niti
    onsofstocksandf
    lows:t
    henetra
    teofchangeofast
    ockis
    t
    hes umofa l
    lit
    sinf
    lowsl es
    sthesumofa l
    lit
    sout
    lows
    f .
    Stocksaccumul
    atet
    henet
    ra
    teofc ha
    nge.Ma he
    t mati
    cal
    ly,st
    ocksint
    egr
    atet
    hei
    rnetf
    lows ;
    thenetf
    lowisthe
    der
    ivati
    veofthestock.

    '
    l.
    .
    虹1 S竜
    甜 CandDynami
    cEqus
    t
    S!
    t
    bF!
    '
    um
    As toc ki si
    ne quil
    ibr i
    um whe ni ti sunc hangi ng( asystemi si ne quili
    bri
    um whe n
    al li tsstocksa r
    eunc hanging) .Foras t
    oc kt obei ne quilibrium t hene tr at
    eof
    cha ngemus tbez ero, i
    mpl yingt het otalinf
    lowI SJustba l
    anc edbyt hetota
    loutlow.
    f
    Ifwa t
    erdr ainsoutofyourt uba te xa ctl
    yt her atei tf
    lowsi n,t hequa ntl
    tyOfwa t
    er
    int het ubwi llre
    ma inc ons t
    anta ndt hetubi sine quili
    br i
    um. Suc has tat
    eisterme d
    ad ynami cequi l
    ibrium s i
    ncet hewa terint het ubi sa l
    wa ysc ha nging.Staticequl-
    libr ium a r
    iseswhe na l
    lflowsi ntoa ndo utofas t
    oc karez ero. He renotonlyi sthe
    tota lvol umeofwa te rinthet ubc onstant,butt het ubc ontainst hes amewa t
    er,hour
    afte rhour .Thenumbe rofme mbe rsoft heUSs enateha sbe eni ndyna mice quili
    b-

    rium s i
    nc e1 959whe nHa wa l
    lJ Olne dtheuni on:t het ota
    lnumbe rofs enatorsre一
    ma insc onstantat100e vena st heme mbe rsh i
    pt ur nsove r(albe itslowly).Thes tock
    ofknownBa chcant at
    a sisins t
    a t
    ice quilibrium s i
    ncewea reunl ikelytoloset he
    one sweknowof ,t
    heoddsofdi scove rl
    ngPr e
    vi ous l
    yunk n ownc antatasareremot e
    ,
    andBa chc an' twri
    tea nyne wone s.

    7.
    1.2 Cal
    cul
    uswi
    thoutMat
    hemat
    ics
    Tbunde r s
    tanddyna mi cs ,
    youmus tbea bl etorela t
    ethebe havioroft hes tocksa nd
    lowsi
    f nas ystem.Gi ve nthef lowsi ntoas t
    oc k,wha tmus tthebe havioroft he
    stockbe?Gi ve nthebe havi oroft hes toc k,wha tmus tthene trateofc hangeha ve
    be e
    n?Thes eques t
    i onsa r
    et hedoma inoft heca lcul
    us .Ca lculusprovi desr ulest o
    answe rt heseques tionsma the ma tical
    lypr ovidedyouc anc haracteri
    zethebe ha vior
    ofthes t
    oc kso rflowsa sma thema tica
    lf unc ti
    ons. Calculusi soneoft hemos tbe au-
    tif
    ula ndus e
    f ulbra nc hesofma thema ti
    csbutonef artoof ewha ves t
    l
    JI
    die dHfiappiy
    l ラ

    theint uiti
    onbe hindt her ela ti
    ons hipbe twe enstoc ksa ndflOwsi ss t
    raight f
    or wa rd
    anddoe snotr equlrea nyma the ma t
    icsJfyoua res hownagr aphoft hebe ha viorof
    thef
    lowsove rtime, youc ana lwa ysinfe rthebe ha vi
    oroft hes t
    ockThi spr oc essis
    n owna
    k sgra phi c
    ali ntegrat i
    on. Likewi se, fr
    omt hetrajectoryOft hes t
    oc kyouc an
    alwa ysi nferi t
    sne tr ateofc hange ,apr oc essknowna sgr a
    phi caldlHe rentiation.
    Integrationa nddi ff erentiationa ret hetwof unda me ntalope rati
    onsi nthec alculus.
    Table71 1provi dest hede finitionsgr aphic all
    ya ndi npl ainlangua ge.
    Thea mounta dde dtoas t
    oc kdur i
    nga nyt l
    mei ntervali sthea r
    e abounde dby
    t
    hec urvede finingI tsne tr ateOfc hange.Why?Cons idertheba ht
    t ubme taphor
    Ch
    apt
    er7 Dy
    nami
    cso
    fSt
    ock
    san
    dFl
    ows 233

    E7-
    TABL 1 日
    ntegr
    ati
    onan
    ddi
    f
    fer
    ent
    i
    ati
    on:
    def
    ini
    t
    ionsandex
    ampl
    es

    I
    ntegr
    ati
    on Di
    ff
    erent
    iat
    ion
    Stocksaccumul ateori nt
    egrat
    et hei
    rnetflow. Thesl opeofal inet angen ttoan ypointoft he
    Thequan ti
    tyaddedt oas t
    ocko veran yin
    teⅣal traj
    ectoryOfthes tockequal sthenetr ateof
    i
    st heareaboundedbyt hegraphoft henetrate chan9ef orthes tockatt hatpoint.Theslopeof
    betweenthes tartandendoft hei nt
    eⅣal .The thes t
    ocktraject
    or yi stheden'Vat i
    veofthes tockl
    fi
    nalvalueofthes tockistheini
    tialvalueplusthe hltheexampl ebel ow,t hes l
    opeoft hes t
    ock
    areaundert hene tratecurvebe t
    weent heinit
    ia一 traj
    ectoryattimet lisRl ,SOthenetr ateatt l -

    andf i
    na=jmes. Rl .
    Att i
    met 2,th
    es lopeoft hes tockislarger,so
    lntheexamplebel ow,
    theva山eoHhes t
    ockat thenetr at
    eatt 2-R2i sgr eat
    ert hanR . The
    l

    ti
    met l-S . Addingt
    lh
    eareaundert
    henetrat
    e stockrisesatani ncreasmgr at
    e,S othenetr ate
    curvebetweentimestlandt2i
    ncr
    easesthe i
    sposi ti
    veandi ncr easlng.
    stocktoS2.

    a jN
    (

    ∈ Ju
    a

    (a

    R
    a
    u

    2
    t
    t
    2
    !
    J

    l e
    l
    t
    J
    ]laN

    !t
    S

    R
    t
    l!

    s l!

    1
    la
    un)

    n)
    0

    (
    (

    s
    s
    S

    l
    l
    2

    !
    un)羊U
    !
    un)q30

    OI
    S
    1
    ･
    ー

    S
    S

    t
    l モ
    2

    agai
    n･ Howmuc hwa terisaddedt othetubi nanytlmei nter
    val,suchasbe tween
    ti
    met landt2inTa ble7- 1
    ?Di videtheentir
    ei nt
    erva
    lintoanumbe rofsma l
    lers e
    g-
    ments,e a
    chs ma l
    le noughthatthene tnowofwa t
    erisnotc hangl
    ngS l
    gnificantl
    y
    duri
    ngt hes egme nt(Figure7- 1)
    .Thel engthofe achs egme ntiscall
    edH dtHfor
    "del
    tatime."Howmuc hwa te
    rflOwsi nduringe ac
    hs ma l
    linter
    valofdurationdt?
    11
    Thequa r
    lt
    it
    ya ddedi stil
    ene tnow dur i
    ngt hei r
    lt
    erVal,sayR,mui ti
    pliecLDy
    t
    hel engthoft hei nter
    val,thatis,theareaoft herectangledtpe ri
    odswi dea nd
    良units/peri
    odhi gh:
    Qua
    nti
    tya
    dde
    ddu
    rin
    gint
    erva
    lofl
    eng
    thd
    t- R * dt
    (Uni
    ts
    ) -(
    Uni
    ts
    /Ti
    me)(
    Time
    ) (
    7-1
    )

    Notetheuni
    tsofmeasur
    e:Theflowi nunit
    spe
    rti
    me,a cc
    umulat
    e df
    orape r
    iodof
    ti
    meyi e
    ldst
    hequant
    ltyaddedtothestock･
    Tous eaconc
    reteexample,supposet1- 1minuteandt2-2mi nutes.The
    ques
    ioni
    t show muchwa te
    rflowsi ntothet
    ubduringthatminut
    e.Dividethe
    234 P
    art
    IIT
    わol
    sfo
    rSy
    ste
    msTh
    ink
    ing

    FIGURE71 1

    (
    a∈!
    a
    Gr aphi c al

    l
    t
    2
    t
    t
    J
    integr ation

    J
    s
    l
    l
    aN
    !
    Divi det imei nt
    o

    un)
    smal l i
    nter valsof
    一
    engt hdt ･Each

    0
    rect ang一 er epr e -

    sent st heamoun t

    (s !
    addeddur i
    ngt he

    S
    l n)q
    2
    u
    interv al dt,as s
    um-
    lngt hene tr ateR.

    U
    att ha ttimer e

    OS
    S
    -

    1
    mai n sc ons tant
    I
    dur ingt hei nterval.
    Thear eaofeach
    rectangl ei sR, dt. 昔
    1 t
    2
    Thet ot
    al addedt o
    thes tockbet ween
    tlandt 21 St hent he mi nuteupi ntoS ixl OI SeCOndi nterva lsanda ssumet heflOwi sc onsta
    ntt hroughout
    sumoft hear eas
    ea choft he seint erva l
    s.I fa tthes tartoft hef irstint ervaltheflowwa s6l iter
    spe r
    oft her ec tang一 es. mi nute( t
    ha tis,0. 1l it
    er s/
    se cond) ,the nthea mounta dde dwoul dbe( 0. 1liters
    /sec-
    Dividi ngt imei nto
    smal lerin cremen t
    s ond) (10s econds )- ll iter.Att hes t artoft hes e condl OISeCOndi nte
    rva l,theflow
    increas est he ha sinc reas ed,pe rha pst o7l it
    ers/mi nut e,ora bout0. 117lite
    rs/second. Thea r
    eaof
    accur acyoft he thes ec ondr ecta nglei st hen1 .17l iters.Ca lcul atingt hea reaofa llsixr ectangles
    appr oximat ion･ anda ddi ngt hemt oge the rgl VeSa na ppr oxima tionoft het otalvolumeofwa ter
    adde ddur ingt hemi nut e.Thea ppr oxi ma ti
    oni sn'tpe r f
    ectbe causethene tf
    lOwi s
    actuallyc hangi ngdur ingea ch6- sec ondi nterva l･InFi gur e7- 1,
    theflowi sa ct
    ually
    risl
    ng,S Ot hec al culatedva lueoft hes toc kwi llbet oos ma ll
    .Toi ncreaset hea ccu-
    racyoft hea ppr oxima tion,s i
    mpl ydi videt i
    mei nt oe ve nfinerintervals,increasl
    ng
    thenumbe rofr e ctangl es.Comput ers imul ationsi ntegratethes tocksint hemode l
    inpr eci selyt hisf ashion;t hemode le rmus tchoos et het i
    mes t
    epdts otha tthea p-
    proxima t
    ioni sa ccept ablef orthepur pose･1Ⅰ nt hel i
    mi t,asthet imei ntervalbe -
    comesi nfinitesima l,thes umoft hea reasofa llt her e c
    tanglesbe come se qua lt
    ot he
    totalar eaunde rt hene tr at
    ec urve.Ca lculuspr ovi desf ormulast hatglVet hee xact
    areaunde rthene tra te
    -pr ovide dthene trateca nbee xpresseda sac ert
    a int
    ypeof
    ma thema ticalf unc ti
    on.Butwhe thert hene tra tec anbei ntegratedana lytlCal
    lyo r
    not,thea mounta dde dt oas tocki sa lwa ysthea reaunde rthene tr a
    te.Gr aphicalin-
    tegrationi sthepr oce s
    so fe sti
    ma tlngt ha tare af rom agr aphoft hene trate.

    7.
    1.3 Gr
    aphi
    caHnt
    egr
    ati
    on
    Toil
    lust
    rategraphi
    cali
    ntegr
    ati
    on,cons
    iderthemos tba
    sics
    tocka
    ndf lows ys
    tem:
    asl
    nglestockwih onei
    t nflowa ndoneout
    low･
    f Assumethef
    lowsaree xoge
    nous-
    t
    herearenof e
    edbacksf
    romt hestoc
    ktoeit
    he rf
    low.Suppos
    etheoutlowf
    f romthe

    l
    Thepoc
    r edu
    redes
    cri
    bedabov
    eiskno
    wna sEuleri
    nt
    egra
    ti
    onandist
    hemos
    tco
    mmonl
    yuse
    d
    met
    hodf
    ornumer
    ic
    alsi
    mu l
    at
    ion
    .Othe
    rmeth
    od ssu
    chasRu n
    ge-Ku
    tt
    aint
    egr
    at
    io
    nusemo
    res
    ophi
    s -

    t
    ic
    ate
    dmeth
    odstoes
    ti
    mateth
    eareaa
    ndsel
    ect
    th et
    imeste
    p.SeeAppe
    ndi
    xA.
    Ch
    apt
    er7 Dyn
    ami
    cso
    fSt
    ock
    san
    dFl
    ows 235

    0
    2
    柿
    FJGURE7- 2

    (
    pu o uas
    Graphical

    き 0]
    in
    tegrati
    on:

    0
    1
    l L
    examp一e

    s
    a
    Jl
    N
    !
    Whilether a
    te

    un)

    0
    st
    epsu pan ds t
    eps
    down,thes tock
    ri
    sesandr emai n
    s
    atahigh erl
    e v
    eL 400
    Notethedi f
    fer
    ent
    unit
    sofmeasu r
    e 竜宮 300
    f
    orther ateand
    st
    ock き
    桟 200
    100
    .

    0蓮 華∃
    0 10 20 30
    Ti
    me( seconds
    )

    stoc ki sz ero･Su ppos ea ls


    ot ha tthei nflo wt ot hes toc kf ollo wst hepa ttens
    r hown
    inFi g ure7- 21Thei nnowbe ginsa tz ero･ Att ime1 0t hei nf
    lo ws udde nlyl nCrea SeS
    to20uni ts/se cond, rema insa tt hatle velf わr1 0s ec onds ,the ns tepsba ckd ownt o
    ze roJft hei nitiall eve lofthes tocki s1 00uni ts,howmuc hi sint hes tocka tt ime
    3 0,a ndwha tist hebe ha vi
    oro fthes toc kove rt ime?
    Ta ble7- 2S howst hes t
    e psi nvol ve di ng raphi cali nt e
    g ra t
    ion. Appl yingthe se
    ste pst oFi gu re71 2, firstma keas etofa xe sf o rthes toc k, line du punde rtheg raph
    fo rthef lows .Ne xtc a lcul
    atet hene tr ate.Si nc et her eiso nl yonei nflo wa ndone
    out low,a
    f nds incet heo utlo
    f wi sz eroa ta llt i
    me s,thene tr ateo fc ha ngeo fthe
    stoc k( To talInflo wITo talOut low)s
    f i
    mpl ye qua l
    st hei nlo
    f w. I
    nit ially,thes toc k
    ha sava l
    ueo fl oou nits.Be twe ent ime0a ndt i
    me1 0,t hene tf
    lowi sz erouni ts/
    se co nd,s ot hes to ckr e mainsc ons ta
    nta titsi ni t
    ialva l
    ue. Att ime1 0,t hene tr ate
    Jumpst O20uni ts/Sec onda ndr ema i
    nst he ref o r1 0s ec onds .Thea mo unta dd edi s
    thea re aunde rthene tr at
    ec ur ve( be twe ent hene tr atec ur vea ndt hez erol ine).
    Si ncet her atei sc ons t
    a nt,t
    hea reai sar e ctangl e20uni ts /
    se condhi g ha nd1 0s ec-
    ondsl ong,s ot hes toc kr i
    sesby2 00u nits,g lVlngat o tall e
    ve lof3 0 0un itsbyt ime
    20･ Be c auset hene tr atelSpos itivea ndc ons tantd u ri
    ngt hisi nte r
    va l,thes t
    oc kr ises
    line arlya tar ate2 0uni ts
    /second( thes lopeoft hes to cki s2 0uni ts/sec ond) .
    Att ime20, thei nflows udd enlyc e ases. Thene trateofc ha ngei sno wz eroa nd
    rema insc ons tan t,andt hes tocki saga inunC ha nglng,t 壬10ug hno wa tt hel eve lof
    300u ni t
    s.
    No tehowt hepr oc essofa cc umul ationc rea tesine rti
    a :tho ug hther at
    er isesa nd
    fallsba ckt oi tso rlglna llevel,hes
    t tockdo e snot returnt oi tso rlglna lle ve l
    .Inste ad,
    itr ema insa titsma ximum whe nt hene tr atef all
    sba c kt oz ero.I nt hisf ashio n,
    Stoc kspr ovi deame mo ryofa llt hepa steve n tsi nas yste m. Theo nl ywa yf o rthe
    stoc kt of a l
    li sfort hen etratetobe c omene ga tive( fo rtheo utlo
    f wt oe xce edthei-n
    low)
    f ANo tea lsohowt heproc e sso fa ccumul a ti
    onc ha ng edt hes hapeo fthei nput .
    Thei nputi sar e ctang ularpul sewi tht wod iscont i
    nuo usJ umps ;t heout puti sa
    smoo th, cont i
    n uo usc u rve.
    2
    36 Pa
    rtI
    I To
    olsf
    orSys
    temsThi
    nki
    ng

    TABLE7-
    2
    1.Cal culat eandgr apht het otalr at eofi nf l
    owt ot hes tock( thesum ofal l
    St
    epsingraphi
    cal
    infl
    ows ).Cal cul ateandgr apht het otalr ateofou t
    刊owf rom t hes tock( the
    i
    ntegr
    ati
    on
    sum ofa"ou t
    flows ).
    2,Cal culat eandgr apht henetr ateofchangeoft hes tock( thet otaHnf lowl ess
    thet ota一 out fl
    ow) .
    3.Mak easetofaxest ogr apht hes tock.St ock sandt heirf l
    owshavedi ff
    er ent
    unitsofmeasur e( i
    fas tocki smeasur edi nuni tsi tsf l
    owsar emeasur edi n
    unitspert imeper i
    od) .Ther ef ores t
    ock sandt hei rflowsmustbegr aphedon
    separ at es cales.Mak easepar ategr aphf or帥es tockundert hegr aphf or
    thef l
    ows, witht het imeaxesl inedup.
    4.Plott hei niti
    al val ueoft hes tockont hes tockgr aph. Thei nitial valuemus t
    bespeci fi
    ed;i tcannotbei nfer redf romt henetr ate,
    5lBreakt henetf Jowi ntoi nterval swi tht hesamebehavi orandcal culatet he
    amoun taddedt ot hes tockdur i
    ngt hei nter valSegmen tsmi ghtbei nt erval s
    inwhi cht henetr at ei scons tant , changl ngl l
    near Fy,Orf oI I
    owI ngsomeOt her
    pat t
    er n.Theamountaddedt oorsubt rac tedf romt hes tockdur i
    nga
    segmen tist hear eaundert henetr at ecur vedur ingt hatsegmen t･For
    exampF e,doest henetf lowr emai ncons tantf romt imet ltOt imet 2?E fso,
    ther ateofchangeoft hes tockdur ingt hats egmenti scons tant ,andt he
    quan tityaddedt ot hes tocki st hear eaoHher ec tangl edef inedbyt henet
    ratebet weent landt 2.1日henetr ater i
    sesl inear lyl nasegment ,thent he
    amountaddedi st hear eaoft het ri
    angl e.Es timat et hear eaundert henet
    ratecur vef ort hesegmentandaddi ttot heval ueoft hest ockatt hes t
    ar tof
    thesegment .Thet otali st heval ueoft hes tockatt heendoft hesegment .
    Plott hispoi ntont hegr aphoft hes tock.
    6.Sk etcht het rajec toryoft hes tockbet weent hes tartandendofeach
    segmen t.Fi ndt heva山eoft henetr ateatt hebegl nnl ngOft hesegment .
    fsitposi tiveornegat i
    ve?l fthenetf l
    owi sposi ti
    ve,t hes tockwi nbe
    increasl ngatt hatt ime.l fthenetf lowi snegat ive,t hes tockwH lbe
    deer easmg. Thenaskwhet herj ti sr islngOrf alll
    ngatani ncr easl ngOr
    decr easl ngr ate,andsk etcht hepat ter nyoui n feront hegr aph.
    lfthenetr at ei sposi ti
    veandi nc reasl ng,t hes tocki ncr easesatan
    increasl ngr
    ' at e( thes tockaccel er atesupwar d) .
    lfthenetr at ei sposi ti
    veanddecr easl ng,t hes tocki ncr easesata
    decr easi ngr ate( thes tocki sdecel er at i
    ngbuts til
    lmovi ngupwar d) .
    lfthenetr at ei snegat i
    veandi tsmagni tudei s/ I
    ncr easi ng( thenetr atei s
    becomi ngmor enegat ive) ,t
    hes tockdecr easesatan/ '
    ncr easi ngr at e,
    lfthenetr at eisnegat veandi
    i tsmagnl J
    tudei sdecr easi ng( becomi ngl ess
    negat ive) .thes tockdecr easesatadecr easi ngr ate1
    7.Whenevert henetr atei szer o, thes tocki sunchangl ng.Mak esur et hat
    yourgr aphoft hes tockshowsnochangei nt hes tockever ywher et henet
    rateiszer o.l fthenetr ater emai nszer of orsomei nt erval, thes tock
    remai nscons tan tatwhat everval uei thadwhent henetr atebecamezer o.
    Atpoi nt swher et henetr atechangesf rom posi ti
    vet onegat ive, thes t ock
    reachesamaxi mum asi tceasest or iseands tartst of a川 .Atpoi ntswher e
    thenetr atechangesf rom negat ivet oposi tive, thes tockr eachesa
    minimum asi tceasest ofall ands t
    ar tst or ise.
    8.Repeats
    teps5t
    hrough7unt
    ildone.
    Ch
    apt
    er7 Dy
    nami
    cso
    fSt
    ock
    san
    dFl
    ows 237

    FI
    GURE7･3 Theac cumulat
    ionproc
    esscreat
    esdelays.
    Not
    etheone-
    quar
    tercycl
    elagbetweenthepeaksofthenetf
    lowandt
    hepeak
    soft
    hes
    tock.

    2
    00
    1
    50
    (

    l
    ntl
    ow Out
    ft
    o
    LJtuO ∈

    1
    00

    Y ㌔ W--
    ＼Sl!
    n u
    )SきOlj

    50

    『雨 …
    己

    ＼ ㌔ _
    メ ㍉ j ㌔ _
    i

    0 3 6 9 1
    2 24 36 48
    Ti
    me(
    mont
    hs)

    Nowc onsi
    dert
    heflOwss peci
    fi
    e di
    nthet oppanelofFigure713.Theoutlow
    f
    i
    sconst
    antat100unit
    s/month,1
    Dutthei
    nflowF l
    uctuat
    esarounda navera
    geofl oo
    wit
    haperiodof12mont hsa
    nda na mpli
    tudeof±50uni t
    s/month.Atthest
    art
    ,the
    i
    nf
    lowisatitsmaxi
    mum. Assumetheinit
    ialvalueofthestoc
    ki s500units
    .
    Sincetheo utlow i
    f sconsta
    nt,thenetinfl
    ow i safluctuati
    onwi tha mpl
    it
    ude
    ±50uni ts
    /montha ndame anofzero.Thes t
    oc kbe gi
    nsati t
    siniti
    alvalueof500
    units,butsincetheinf
    lowi satit
    sma ximum,t hes t
    ockiniti
    all
    yr is
    eswi h as
    t l
    ope
    of50uni ts/
    mon th.Howe ver
    ,thenetf
    lowf al
    lsove rt
    hef i
    rst3mont hs,sothest
    oc k
    incr
    e asesatadec r
    easi
    ngr a
    te.Atmonth3thene tf
    lowr eac
    he szero,t
    hengoesne g-
    ati
    ve. Thes toc
    kmus ttheref
    わrereachama ximum a tmonth3. Thea mountadde d
    tothes t
    ocki nthefirt3mont
    s hsistheare
    aunde rthenetratecurve.Iti
    snoteas y
    2
    38 P
    art
    IIT
    わol
    sfo
    rSy
    st
    em sTh
    ink
    ing

    toe s t
    ima t
    et hea reaf romt heg raphbe c auset hen e tratec ur vei sc ons tantlyc hang
    -

    1ng. Yo uc oulde s
    tima tei tbya ppr oxi ma tlngt hea reaa sas etofr e cta ngle s,a sde -
    sc r
    ibe da bove,t ho ug ht hiswo uldt a ket i
    me .Us i
    ngs imul a
    tiont oc arryoutt he
    a ccumul ations howst hatal ittlele sst ha n1 00u ni tsa rea dde dt ot hes toc kbyt he
    timet henetr atef al
    lst oz eroa tmo nth3.
    From mont h3t omo nth6,t hene tratei sne ga t
    ive .Thes toc ki st he refore
    fa l
    ling. J
    usta ftermont h3, t
    hene t ratel SJust barel yne ga t
    ive ,Sot her ateofde cline
    o fthes tocki sslight. Butt hema gnitudeo fthene tratei ncre ases,S ot hes toc kf a ll
    s
    ata ni ncreasingr at
    e. At6mo nths ,thene tr a
    teha sr e a
    c he ditsmi ni mum( mos tne g-
    ative )valueof-50uni ts/mo nth. Thes toc kisde c lini
    nga ti t
    sma ximumr a te; t
    he re
    isa ni nle
    f ctionpo l
    nti nt het raje ct
    o ryO fthes tocka tmo nth6.
    Howmuc hd idt hes toc kl os ebe twe enmo nt h3a ndmont h6?As sumi ngt he
    luc
    f tua t
    ioni nthene tr atei ssymme t
    ric al,thel ossJ ustba lanc edwha twa sga i
    ne di n
    thef irst3mo nths ,
    r educ ingt hes toc kba ckt oi t
    si niti
    a lleve lo f50 0uni ts.
    Frommo nth6t omon th9, t
    hene tflo wr ema insne ga ti
    ve ,sot hes tockc onti
    -n
    ue st of a
    ll,butnowa tade c
    r easlngr ate.Bymo nt h9t hene tflowa ga lnr eache s
    ze o,
    r sothes to ckc ea sest of alla ndr ea che sitsmi ni mum. Aga inus ingt hea ssu mp-
    tiono fsymme try,thequa nt l
    tyl ostf rommo nths6t o9i se qua ltot hequa ntltyl ost
    frommo nths3t o6,S ot hes t
    o ckf a l
    lst oal eve l
    jus ta bo ve400uni ts .
    Frommo nths9t o1 2t hene tf
    lowi spos itive, sothes tocki srising. Dur ingt his
    timet hene trater ises ,sot hes toc ki nc reasesa ta ni nc rea s
    ingr ate,e ndi ngwi t
    ha
    slop eo f50uni ts/mo nt ha st hene tr a
    ter e achesi t
    sma ximum. Aga in, thes toc kg alnS
    thes a mea mo unt ,rec ove rlngI t
    si niti
    a lle velo f5 00uni tse xac tl
    ya tmo nth1 2. Be -
    yon dmo nth1 2thec yc l
    er epe ats.
    Thee xampl eillus tr
    a test hewa ylnWh icht hepr oce sso fa ccumul a t
    ionc reates
    de l
    ays ,Thei nputt ot hes ys te
    mi saf luc tua ti
    o nwi tha1 2-mo nthpe riodr e ac hingI ts
    pe aka tti
    me-0,1 2, 24,... mo nt hs.Thes t
    o ck,o ro utputo fthes ys tem, al sofluc
    -

    tuate swi t
    ha1 21mOnt hpe ri
    odbutl agsbe hi ndt hene tinflo wr a te,r eac hi ngI ts
    pe aksa tt-3,1 5,2 7,‥ . mo nths .Thel agl Spr ec iselyo ne -qua r
    te rc ycle. Thel a g
    arisesbe causet hes toc kc ano nlyde c
    r ea sewhe nt hene tf
    lo wi sne ga ti
    ve. I fthene t
    lowi
    f spositi
    vea ndf a ll
    st oz eo,
    r thes to ckinc reas esa ndr ea chesi tsma ximum.

    Anal
    yti
    calI
    ntegr
    ati
    onofaFl
    uct
    uat
    l
    r
    On
    Theexa
    mpleinFigure7-
    3c anbemadepre
    cis
    eusl
    ngalit
    tl
    eba s
    iccalc
    ulus
    .The
    st
    ockSist
    heint
    egraloft
    henetra
    teR.Ass
    umingt
    henetf
    lowisac os
    inewit
    hpe-
    ri
    od12monthsa
    nda mpli
    tude50uni
    ts
    /mont
    h,R=5 0c
    os2T
    ( t
    r/1
    2),the
    n

    s-lRd
    t -l
    5 o
    0cs2
    Tu1
    2)d
    t-50(
    ( 122T)
    / si
    n(2
    Tu1
    2)+S
    t D 7
    ( -
    2)
    Thest
    ockfol
    lowsasi
    newavewi
    tht
    hesa
    meperio
    dandampl
    it
    ude(12
    /2¶ )t
    imes
    t
    hatoft
    henetf
    low.Thedela
    yca
    use
    dbythea
    ccumul
    ati
    onpr
    oces
    siseas
    ilysee
    n
    si
    ncesi
    n(0
    )=c os
    (0-¶/2)
    :
    S-5
    0(1
    2/ユ
    ′汀)
    cos
    (2汀t
    ′/1
    2-¶/
    2)+S
    t｡ (
    7-3
    )
    Thes t
    ockfol
    lowsthes ametrajector
    ya St
    henetf
    lowbutwit
    haphaselagof7
    T/
    2
    (one-
    quart
    ercyc l
    e).
    Equa t
    ion( 7-2)al
    soshowstha
    ttheampl
    it
    udeofthest
    ockis
    (50units
    /month)*( 12mont hs/2Tr
    )- 96unit
    s,Sothes
    tockf
    luct
    uat
    e sbe
    twee
    n
    about404and5 96,asse
    eni nthef i
    gure
    .
    Ch
    ape
    t r7 Dy
    nami
    cso
    fSt
    ock
    san
    dFl
    ows 239

    Gr
    aphi
    caHn
    tegr
    ati
    on
    Cons i
    de rasto
    ckwi t
    has i
    nglei nf
    lowr ateRlands i
    ngl
    eoutnowr a
    teR2･ Drawt he
    behaviorofthestockgi
    ve nther at
    esRla ndR2S hownineachpanelofFigure7-4.
    Theinitialval
    ueofthest
    oc kis1 00unitsinbot
    hc as
    es.
    Donotus eac omputer
    .The
    polntistodevelo
    pyo urintui
    tiona boutstoc
    ksandRowsa ndyoura bil
    it
    ytor e
    late
    the
    irbe havio
    r.Usingsi
    mul at
    ionde feat
    sthatpurposea
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    Muc hoft hepo we ro fthes ystemd ynami cspe r s
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    hers pe cies?The seq ue s
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    lma tes cientifi
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    De s
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    icunc ertai
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    atureatthee ar t
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    acel ayeroft he
    ocea n(t
    hes o-c a
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    ists
    )-i spr ima ril
    yde termine dbyt heba lanc eoft hei nc omi ngs olarra dia t
    iona nd
    theo utgolngr e r
    ad i
    a tede nergy. Thee ar
    thi sawa rmma sssurrounde dbyt hec old
    ofs pacea ndl ikea lls uchma ssese mi t
    ss o-C al
    ledbl ac
    kbo dyr adi at
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    stribu t
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    ss urfac etempe ra tu
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    h･ Asi t
    wa rms,mo ree nergyl Sr adiatedba ckintos pace. Thet empe raturer i
    s esunt ilthe
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    me noug hf orthee ne r
    gyr adi at
    e dba ckt os pacet oba la ncet hei n-
    coml ngs o一are nergy.
    242 P
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    Thi
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    Thea mo unto fe ne r
    g yr adi atedba c ki nt os pa c ede pendso nt hec ompos itio nof
    thea tmos phe r e. GHGss uc ha sc arbo nd io xidea ndme tha net raps o meo ft hee n-
    er gyr adi atedbyt hee a r
    th, ins teado fa ll
    owl ngl tt Oe scapei n tos pa c e･Thusa ni-n
    cr ea sei nGHGsc a use st hee artht owa rm.Thee arthhe a tsupunt ilt hee ne rgy
    e sca plngt hr o ught hea tmos phe ret os pa c er is ese no ught oa ga inba lanc et hei n-
    c oml ngs o一a re ner gy.Gr ee l
    lhous ega se sr ed uc et hee mi s sivlt yO ft hea tmos phe r e
    eno ug ht owa r mt hes urfa ceoft hee ar th( inc lud ingt heoc ea ns )toal ife-sus taini ng
    ave r ageo fa bout1 5o C( 59o F) .Wi tho utGHGsi nt hea tmos phe r
    e ,theme ang lo ba l
    tempe ratur ewo ul dbea bout-1 7oC( lop)a ndabl anke tofi c ewo ul dpe rpe tua l
    ly
    c ov ert hee ar th.
    Na tura lpr oc es se sha vec a use dt hec o nc e ntra tionofc a rbond iox ide( CO 2)i n
    thea tmos phe ret ofluc t
    ua tes ign ificant lyov e rge o log icaltime ,ands u rfac ete mpe r-
    atu re sha vef luc tua te dwi t
    hi LHu ma na ctivityha sno wr e ache das ca lewhe rei tc an
    afe c tthe sepr oc e sse s.Ass howni nFi gur e7- 7,t her a
    teo fa nthr o po ge nicGHG
    emi ss i
    o nsha sbe e ng rowl nge XPO ne ntiallys inc et hebe gl nn lngO ft hei ndus t
    r ial
    age .At mos phe ricc onc entr ationso fCO2a ndo the rGHGsi nc l
    ud ingni t
    ro uso x id e
    (N20) ,me tha ne( CH4),C hlor o luo
    f roc arbo ns( CFCs ),hyd r of
    luo roc a rbo ns( HFCs ),
    pe rluo
    f rina te dc arbo ns( PFCs ), ando the rsha vebe eng rowi nge xpo ne ntially, wi th
    co nc e l
    ltratio nso fCO2, N20, andCH4upby3 0,1 5, and1 45%, r espe cti
    v ely ,sinc e
    1 800. Me ang loba ls ur facet empe ratur eha sbe enr ising, ho
    t ug hno ti nas tea dypa t-
    tern. Co mpa redt ot hel at
    e1 800S ,ave ra gegl o ba lte mpe ratur esa rea bo ut0. 5t ol oC
    wa me rto da y .Byc o mpa riso n, theme a ngl o ba lte mpe ratur ed uringt hel ast icea ge ,
    whe ns he etsofi ce1 000f ee tthi ckc o ve redmuc hoft heno r t
    he rnhe mi sphe r e, wa s
    abo ut50 cc o lde rt ha nt oda y.
    De ba t
    ec o nt inue sa bo utt hed yna mi cso ftheg loba lclima tes ys tem, itsre spo ns e
    tof o rcingbyhuma na ctiv lt
    y ,a ndt hec o ns eq ue nc e so far isei ng loba lme ant em-
    pe ra ture.Thepu blicdi sc us sionha sbe enpol ariz edbywe l
    l-fina nc e dc a mpa ig ns
    todi s countt hes c ienc e.Ne ve r t
    he le ss,c o ns e nsusi se me r ging.I n1 995,t heUN
    spo ns oredl nt e rgove rnme nt alPa ne lo nCl ima teCha nge( IPCC)c o nclude dt ha t
    gl oba lwa ml ngWa si nde e doc currlng,a ndt ha thuma na c tiv l
    tyWa sr espons ibl e,
    statlng" Theba lanc eofe vi de nc es ugge stsadi sc ernibl ehuma ni nflue nc eo nc li-
    ma te"( IPCC1 996) . Thr o ug ht heUNFr a me wo rkConve nt iono nCl ima teCha nge
    (UNFCCC)va riousna ti
    o nsa r ene go ti
    a ti
    ngl imi tst oGHGe mi ssions ,thoug hc om-
    pl i
    a nc er ema inse lus ive.
    Si mul atio nmode lso fva rioust ype sa ret hepr l
    ma ryr e se archt oo ltoe x pl ore
    the sei s sue s. Thee no rmo us l
    yd etailedge ne ra lc ircul ati
    onmode ls( GCMs )c a lcu-
    latec lima tea tf ine lys pac e di nt erva lsc o ve rlngt hee nt i
    res ur faceo ft hee arth, but
    takeGHGe mi ssionsa se xoge no usI nput s. Att heot he re xtr eme ,s o-Ca ll
    e di nte -
    gr ate dc lima te -e cono mymode l
    sc los es o meoft hef e edba cksa mo ngt heh uma n
    ec ono my , ca rbo ne mi ssions ,a ndg loba lc li
    ma tebutt r
    e atthec arbo nc yc l
    ea ndc li一
    ma tea sgl o ba la gg rega teswi thas ma lln umbe ro fs to c
    ks ･ TわmFi dda ma n( 1 99 7)
    ana lyz e dma nyo ft hemos twi de lyus e dc lima te -e cono mymode ls ,id entifyi nga
    numbe ro fpr o bl emsa ndi nc ons ist
    e nc ie si nt he m.Fo re xa mpl e,t hewi de l
    yc ited
    DI CEmo de l( No rd ha us1 992a ,1 992 b)v i
    o la t
    e st hel awofc o nser vati onofma s sby
    as sumi ngt ha tas ig ni fi
    c antf r ac ti
    o no fc a rbo ne mi ssionss impl yd is appe a r( No rd-
    ha usa ssume dt he yf lOwi ntoas inko ut sidet hemod e lbo unda ry). Fidda ma n( 1 99 7)
    Cha
    pte
    r7 Dyna
    micsofSt
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    Sources:Da tafromt heCar bonDi oxidelnformati
    onAnal ysi
    sCenter(CDIAC) ,OakRl dgeNat i
    onal
    Laboratory(htt
    p://
    cdEaC.eSd.or
    nI .
    gov /
    trends/tr
    ends.htm)lEmi ssi
    ons:Keeli
    ng( 1997)
    .Emi ssionsi n-
    cl
    udecar bonfr
    ombur nl
    ngfossilfuelsonlyandexcl udesot herGHGsandchangesi ncar bonf lux
    fr
    om,e; g.,def
    ores t
    ation CO2 irlatmospher e:SipleSt at
    10nlCeCOredatar Neft
    eletal.19941 .Mauna
    Loagasr ecor
    derda ta( Keeli
    ngetal .1997);concent r
    atE
    Oni nppmvconver tedtobil
    li
    ont onsl ntotal
    atmospher e.Globalmeansur facet emper atureanomal y:Jones,Wigley,andWr lgh
    t( 1997)andAnge"
    (1997),resca‡
    edso1960- 70,E0, 2oC.

    devel
    oped a modelt
    hatcor
    rect
    sth ese and ot
    herdef
    ect
    sin comm on cl
    im at
    e-
    economymodel
    sandl
    inkedi
    ttoamodeloft
    heeconomyandener
    gys
    yst
    em ･The
    models
    ect
    orswer
    ebasedont
    her
    elevants
    cient
    ifi
    cknowl
    edgeoft
    hegl
    obalcar
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    cycl
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    esys
    tem andcar
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    lycal
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    otheavai
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    a.
    244 P
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    IIT
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    sfo
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    st
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    De spltet hedi ffere nc esa mo ngt hemod els, alls howt hec li
    ma tes ys temt opos I
    s esse no r
    mo usine rtia. Cha ng esi nGHGe mi ssionso nl ys lowl ys ho wu pl nC ha ng es
    ingl o ba lte mpe raturea ndc li
    ma te,a ndt hec ha nge spe rsistf orma nyde ca de s. To
    illustr ate,Fi gure7- 8S ho wsa ne xt r
    e mec o nd itionst estus ingFi dda ma n'smo de l.In
    thes imul ation,a nthr opo ge nicCO2e mi ssionsf o l
    lowt he irhi sto rica lpa tht hro ugh
    themi d1 990S , rema inc ons tan tunt il2 000,a ndt he nf a lltoz e roa fter2 000.Su r
    -
    pr lSlng ly,t houg ht her a t
    eofCO2e mi ssio nsf allst oz eroi nt heye a r2 00 0,me an
    g loba lt empe ratur ec o ntinue st or isef ora bo utt hr eemor ede c ade s.I tt he nf a ll
    s
    ve rys lowl y.
    Thes toc ka ndf lOws truc tur er espo ns iblef ort hec ount e rintui tiver es ultt hat
    tempe ra t
    ur er i
    se se ve nt ho ug he mi ssio nsf a lltoz e roi ss howni nFi g ur e7- 9. The
    lefts ideo ft hef igur epo r t
    r ayst heg loba lc a rbo nc yc le;t her ih ts
    g i depo rtrayst he
    gl oba lhe atba lanc e.Bur nlngf os silfu e l
    sa ddsCO2t Ot hea tmos phe r e. The rea re
    se ver alo utlo
    f wsf ro mt hes to cko fatmos phe ricC0 2･ Hi ghe ra tmos p he r i
    cCO2c o n-
    c entra tioni ncrea sest her atea twhi chCO2 i sc ons ume dbya q ua ticl ifeo rd issol ves
    intot hemi xedl aye roft heoc e an. Eve ntua lly,CO2 t ake nupbyt hes ur facel a yer
    di f
    fus e st ode epe rwa ters ,bo tht hr oug hoc ea nc ur rent sa nda sde tritusf ro ma qua ti
    c
    lifes in ks .
    Thet rans fero fc arbo nt ot hed ept hsi ss low, andmi xi ngbe twe ent hes ur-
    fa cea nda bys salwa ter si swe ak,s oma nyc arbonc yc lemode lsdi s ag gre ga t
    et he
    wa t
    e rc olumni nt oanumbe ro fdi stinc ts tate sa ndmod elt het ra ns fero fc a rbo n
    be twe ena d jacentl aye rse xpl i
    c i
    tly. Fid dama n' smo de lut ili
    ze s1 0l aye r s, eno ug ht o
    c aptu ret hes l
    o wa djus tme ntofa bys salCO2 c o nc ent rationst oc ha ng e si nCO2i n
    themi xe dl ayer.
    Inc re aseda tmos phe r icCO2 C On Ce ntratio na lsos timul atesupt a keo fc arbo nby
    terres trialpl ants( thef luxo fCo ∑t Obi o ma ss). Ca rbo ni nbi o ma ssc anber eleas ed
    ba cki ntot hea tmos phe ret hro ug hr espl rationa ndme tabo lica c t
    i vltyO fa ni ma la nd
    ba cter iallifea ndbyf ire( na tura landhu ma n- c aus ed) ･Asbi o ma ssd ec ays , t
    hes to ck
    ofc a rbo ns toredi ns oili nc re ases( thefluxo fc arbo nf rombi oma sst os oilhumus ).
    Thec a rboni nhumusc a nbet ake nupd i
    re ctlyi nt obi oma ssa spl a ntsg ro wo rc an
    ber e le asedi ntot hea tmos p he ret hroug hde c ay .
    No tet hatthemod e lr epr esent sthei nf
    lo wofCO2 t Ot hea tmos phe ref romt he
    bur ningOff ossi
    lf ue lsa sflOwi ngf roma nu nlimi te ds our cewhe ni nf ac tthef low
    dr awsdownt hec aIもO ns e que ste r
    edi ng lo ba ls toc kso ff ossilf ue ls . Simi l
    a rly, 血e
    mode ldoe snotc apt uret hec onve r
    siono fc arboni nhumuso rt hea bys sall aye rof
    theoc eani nt one ws toc kso ffos silfu els. Al tho ught hed yna mi c so fgl o ba lwa rm-
    1ngWi llpl ayo utove rt hene xts e veralc entu ries, thist imeho r i
    z o ni ss os ho rtr ela-
    tivet ot hemi lli
    onsofye a rsr eq uiredt of ormo il,ga s,a ndc oa ltha tthe sec ar bon
    lowsc
    f a nbes afelyi gno red.
    Ther ights ideofFi gur e7- 9s howst hes t
    oc ka ndf lows truc tur ef o rt
    hehe at
    ba lanc eoft hee a rth'ss ur fa ce,a t
    mos phe re ,a ndoc e ans .Thes u rfac ea nda tmos -
    phe re , i
    nc ludingt hes u rfa cel aye ro ft heoc ean,a bs orbi nco ml ngS O la re ne rgya nd
    radia tehe atba cki nt os pa ce . He atisa ls ot rans ferre dbe twe e nt hes u rfa cel ay era nd
    thede e poc ean, t
    ho ugha ts lo wr ates.Th er ateo fhe attra nsfe rbe twe e ns ur fa cea nd
    de epoc eande pe ndsont het empe ratur edi ffe rent ialbe twe ent hed ife rentl aye r s
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    cre at
    l ngt wone ga tivef e ed ba ckswh ichs e ekt oe qui libr atet het empe ra t
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    wa rml ng･ The sei nc l


    udei nc re ase dc a rbo nupt akebybi oma ss,s timul a tedbyhi ghe r
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    radia tiona ndma ya ccountf ort hes lowe rt ha ne xpe ctedr a t
    eoft e mpe ratur eris eo b-
    serve di nt heNo rther nHe mi s phe re.
    Amongt hepos i
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    a l
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    f ctive
    pol ari c ec a ps ,thusi nc r
    e asinghe a ta bs orpt lOna ndl ea dingt of u rthe rme lting, less
    snowc ove r,a nds tillg reatera bs or ptlOn･Sc ientistse xpe c tthi spos itivel oo pwi l
    l
    c a
    us emuc hgr eaterwa r
    ml nga tthepol e st ha ni nt het ropl CSa ndmor ewa ml ngl n
    wi nte rt hans umme r･Tha wi ngofpe rma fros tma yr ele asel a rgequa nt itie sof
    me tha nef romd e cayofo rga ni cma t
    te r,inc r eas l
    ngt hec onc ent rationofGHGsa nd
    leadi ngt of ur the rwa rmi ngl na not he rpos i
    tivel oop.I nc r
    ea se de va por atio nf rom
    wa rme rl anda nds ur facewa te rsma ybes e lf-reinfor c lngS inc ewa terva po ri sa
    powe rf ulGHG･ Atpr ese nti ti snotknownwhe thert hene ga tiveo rpos itivef e ed-
    bac ksdomi na tet hedyna mi c sno rhowt hedo mi na nc eo fthel oopsmi ghtc ha ngea s
    var i
    ousnonl i
    ne aritiesc omei ntopl a y. Howe ve r,Goul de ne ta l.( 1998)s tudi edt he
    nor t
    he r nbor e alf ores tofCa na daa ndf oundt ha twa rmi ngha sr esul tedi nne t ca rbon
    luxt
    f ot hea tmos phe reasC0 2r elea sedf romde ca yoft ha we dbi oma s sout we ighe d
    incre as edca rbo nupt akebypl ant s. Fo rt ha tbi ome,a tl e ast,thepos itivef ee dba c ks
    appe a rt odomi na tethene gativel oo pofi nc re as edbi ot ica c t
    ivi ty.
    Thei mpa c tofwa rml ngOnS e al eve lma ya lsobed rive nbypos itivef e ed ba ck.
    ThehugeWe st Ant ar cti
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    ngt onguea tta che d
    toal arge ric emas ss ohe avyl tr e stsOnbe droc kbe l
    ows e ale ve l. TheWAI Shol ds
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    d, i
    twoul dr aisea l
    l
    thewor ld' soc eansby5me ters "( 拡e rr1 998, p.1 7). Ifwa rme rs ea sc a us et heWAI S
    tothi n,i twi llr isef ar t
    he rof ft hes e abe d,e xpos lngmor eOft hei cet ome ltinga nd
    acc eler atingt hi nni ngl napos itivel oop. Ast hee dget hins ,thehi ghe ri c eont he
    Ant arc ticl andma ssflowsf ast eri ntot hes ea , whe reiti se x pos e dt ot hewa rme rwa -
    ters,f ur the rs pe e dingme ltingi na not he rpos itivef e ed ba ck.Ri gnot( 1 998)not es
    thatagl a cierwi thH[ t]hisc onf i
    gur ationi st he or eticallyuns tabl ebe ca us ear e treat
    ofi t
    sgr oundi ngl ine( whe ret hegl ac i
    e rs ta rtst ofloa t
    )woul dbes e lf-pe rpe t
    ua t
    ing
    andi rre ve rs i
    bl e "a nds howst ha tt heg roundi ngl ineoft hePi neI s landgl ac ierf ee d-
    1ngt h eWAI Si sr etreatinga t1. 2±0. 3ki lome terspe rye ar.I c ec or e ss howt ha t
    with i
    nt hepa s tl ･3mi lli
    onye a rs,‖ atat imepe rha psnotmuc hwa rme rt ha nt oda y,
    theWAI Swa s teda wa yt oas cra pa ndf loode dt hewor ld'sc oa sts"( Ke rr1 998,
    p･1 7 )II cec or eda taf r
    om Gr ee nla nda lsos ugges tt hepa le oc lima ter epe atedl y
    wa rme da ndc ool ed,Wi thc or re spondl ngC ha nge sins nowf a l
    l ,ove rt imes c alesof
    onlyd e c ades ･The s er apidc ha ngess ugge stpos it
    ivef e edba c ksma yha vedomi -
    natedc lima tedy nami csinge ologi c allyr e ce ntt imes .
    It wi llt akey earsofr ese arc ht odi scove ra llt hef ee dba ckst ha tdr ivet hec lima te
    andd e ter mi net hel i
    ke lye ffe ctsofgr ee nhous ewa rml ng.Ne ve rhe
    t l es s,thes toc k
    andlfO ws truc tureoft hegl oba lc arbonc yc lea ndhe a tbudge te xpl ainss omeba sic
    feature soft hed yna mi cs .Thes toc ka ndf lOws truc tures howshowi ti spos sibl ef or
    2
    48 P
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    theg loba lt empe ra tu ret or isee ve na fte rhu ma nGHGe mi s sionsf allt oz ero. Whe n
    e mi ssionsf alltoz e rot hei nflo wst ot hes to ckofa tmos phe ricc a rbo nf allbe lowt he
    out nows .The re f
    o ret hes to ckofCO2i nt hea tmos phe repe aksa ndbe gi nst of ll
    a .
    Thec onc e ntratio no fC0 21 nt hea tmos phe ref allso nlys lowl y, ho we ver｡Fi rst ,血e
    upt akeo fc arbonbybi oma ssf allsa st hec o nc entra ti
    o no fCO2i nt hea tmos phe re
    de cline s, whi leCO2c o ntinue st oflO wi ntot hea irf r
    o mbur nlnga ndde ca yo fbi 0-
    ma ssa ndh umuss to cks . Se cond, a sa tmos phe ricCO2f alls ,hef
    t luxo fc arbo nf ro m
    thea i
    rt ot hemi xe dl a ye ro ft heo ce anf a ll
    s ,whi let heflu xo fc arbo nf romt heoc ea n
    tot hea i
    ri nc rea ses ･The sec o mpe ns ato ryr e spo ns ess lowt hede clin eo fa tmos phe ric
    CO2SO t ha t5 0y e ar sa fterh uma ne mi s sio nss topc ompl ete ly, thec onc ent rationo f
    C0 2i nt hemo de la tmos phe reha sf a llenba c ko nl yt oi ts1 990l e ve l
    .
    Thehe atc ont e nto ft hes ur fac el a ye rr isesa sl onga si nc oml ngr adia tione x-
    ce edst hehe atr adi a t
    e dba ckt os pa c eo rt r ans ferre dt ot hede epoc ean.Though
    fallinga fte rtheye ar2000,g loba la tmos phe ricCO2C O nC ent ratio nsr e ma inhi gh
    enoug ht or e duc et hee ne r gyr ad iat edba c kt os pa cebe lowi nc oml ngl nS Ol ation.
    De cl
    ini nga tmos p he ricCO2a fter2000me a nsg loba lme a nt e mpe ratur eg rowsa ta
    d i
    mi ni shingr ate . Bya bo ut203 0t hes ur fa c eha swa rme de no ug ha ndt hec o nc en-
    trationofCO2i nt hea tmos phe reha sf alle ne noug hf o ri ns ola tiont obeba la nc e d
    aga inbyt hee ar t
    h' sbl ac k-bodyr adi a t
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    eo fhe a tt rans fertot hede ep
    oc ean. No tet ha tgl oba lme ant e mpe ratur ef allso nl ys lowl ya f t
    e r203 0, Fi rst,t he
    slow de clineo fGHGc o nc e ntratio nsa fte r2000s l
    o wst hei nc rea sei nr adi ative
    emi ss ivity. Se co nd, du ringt hewa rme stde c ade swhe nt hes ur fa cet empe r aturee x-
    ce ede dt het e mpe r atu reoft hed eepo ce an, he atflowe df romt hes urfa cel aye rt othe
    d eep. Ast hes ur f
    a c el aye rc oo ls, he a ts tor edi nt hede e poc e annowf lo wsba c kt o
    thes ur fac e, slowi nga tmos phe ricc oo ling.
    Thes toc ka ndf lO ws tru ctur eoft hec ar bo nc yc lea ndhe at ba lanc ee xpl ainst he
    see ml ng lypa rado xi c alr es ultt ha tte mpe ra ture sc anr isee ve nwh ene mi ss i
    o nsf all.
    The rea res e vera ll ess ons . Fir st,gl oba lwa r mi ngC a nno tbepr ov eno rd isprove nby
    co rrelatlnge mi ssionsa ndt e mpe ra tur e:t hedyna mi csa ret ooc ompl exf ors uc h
    na i
    vec o mmo ns ens ea ppr oa che s. Se c ond, thef ullimpa cto fpa ste mi ssi
    onsha snot
    ye tbe eno bs erve d. Theoc e ansa ndt erre str ialc arbons toc ksha vebe ena bs o rbi ng
    carbo no uto ft hea tmos phe rea thi ghe rr a tes ,Suppr ess l
    ngt her isei na tmos phe r ic
    CO2C OnC e ntratio ns .Anda st he ses t oc ksi nc re ase, theira bs orpt lOnC apaC ltyd imi n-
    ishe s.Thei mpa ctoff utur ee mi ssionsona tmos phe ricCO2ma yWe l
    l bel arg ert ha n
    thato bs e rve di nt hepa st.Thi rd,t hei ne rtiao ft hes ystemme a nsf urtherwa rml ng
    andc lima tec ha ngea r ea lre ad yunde rwa y . Ac tiont oha ltwa rml ngmus tbet ake n
    de cad esbe forewec a nkno wwha tt hec o ns e que nc e so fwa rmi ngWi l
    l bea ndbe for e
    scient if
    icc ertaint ya bo utt hed yna mi c so ft hegl oba lc lima tec a nbega i
    ne d.
    Mos timpo rtant , tnes toc ka ndF lowS tr uc tureO ftheg lob a lC lima teme ansS ta -
    bilizlnge mi ssionsne arc ur re ntr at eswi llnots tabilizet hec lima t
    e.Fi gur e7- 10
    showsas imul ationi nwhi che mi ssio nsa res tabilize di n1 995. Thec on cent rationo f
    atmos phe ricCO2C On tinue st or ise, mo r et ha nd ou bl i
    ngby23 00. Gl o balme ans ur -
    facet e mpe raturer ise sbya bo ut3o C. Ma nyi ndus triali
    z edna tionsa g reeda ttheRi o
    conf ere nc eont hee nvi ronme ntt os tabi liz et he irGHGe mi s sionsa t1 990l e ve ls,
    and38i nd us tri
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    claredt het re at
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    FIGURE7 -10

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    ce:F
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    isonet hing,actuallyr educ inge mis s


    ionsa not her.Mos ttr
    oubl i
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    rapidlyde veloplngna tionss ucha sChi nac ont i
    nuet ogr ow athighe xpone nt
    ial
    rates.TheUSEne rg ylnf orma tionAdmi nist
    rationf or
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    stin1 997thatGHGe mis-
    sionsf rom deve l
    o pingna tionswo uldne a
    rlydoubl eby201 5,accountlngforthe
    largema j
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    CSI
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    lEW ARON DRUGS
    Int he1 98 0st heus eofc oc a inei nc rea se ddr ama ti
    c ally.Asc oc aines pre a d,c rime,
    viole nc e ,a ndhe althpr obl e msgr e we xpone ntial l
    y. TheUni tedSt atesde clareda
    wa rondr ugs .Ane wf e de rla
    a ge nc y,t heWhi teHo useOfi ceofNa ti ona lDr ug
    Cont r oIPol ic y( ONDCP) ,he a de dbyt heH drugc z ar,"wa sa ppoi nt edt oove r s
    e e也e
    ca mpa lgn. Pe na lti
    e sfo rpos ses s i
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    ugswe res tiffene d･Bi ll
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    e asee nf or ce me nt,e s pe cia ll
    yt or educ et henowofc oc ainei nt o
    theUS,e s
    tima te dbyt heONDCPt obe550t o660me t
    rict onsi n1 98 9｡ Thef ocus
    oft hewa rondr ugswa spr ima rilyt hes uppl ys ide:s lashingt hepr oduc ti onofco-
    ca i
    ne,c ho ki ngof fsmuggl ingI nt ot heUS,a nds ti
    f feningpe na l
    tiesf orpos session
    ands ale, Ont hede ma nds ide, kidswe ret ol dt o" J usts ayNO. H
    Di di two rk?I nthel a te1 980st heda tatol dac o nflictings tory. Somedr ugda ta
    showe di mpr ove me nt.Thr ought heH Na tiona lHous ehol dSur ve yH( NHS)a nd
    HHl ghSc hoo lSe niorSur ve yH( HSSS) ,thegove rnme nt reg ula r
    l ya skspe opl ea bout
    theirus eo fa l
    c ohola nddr ugs .Tba ss es st rendsi ni nc ide nc ea ndpr eva l enc e,也e
    surve ysa s
    kwhe the rpe opl eha vee verus edc oc aine, whe the rthe y' veus e di ti nthe
    lastye ar,a ndwhe the r血e y'veus e di ti nt hel astmont h･Fi gur e7- lls howsNHS
    da t
    af ort he虫. a ctionofpe opl er es pondi ngt hatt he yha veus e dc oc a i
    nei nt hepas t
    mont h. Ac c ordi ngt ot hes ur ve ys ,c oc a ineus ewa sf all
    ings ha r
    pl y,wi thl esst ha n
    1 % oft hepo pul ationr epo rtlngpa stmont hc oc aineus ei n1 990,downf r om 3% i n
    1985. Thedr opl nr epo rtedus ec oi nci de dwi thas ha rpl nC rea S
    ei nt hes e iz urer ate,
    tomor et ha n75me t
    rict onspe rye ar( Fi gur e7- 11). Thewa rondr ugss e eme dt obe
    wo rki ng., citingt he seda ta, t
    hea dmi nis tra t
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    le df ore ve nmo remone yt of i
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    Howe ve r,ot he rindi c ator ss howe dt hepr obl e mwa sge t
    tlngWOr Se･ Ar restsf or
    pos ses siona nds aleofc oc aine,t henumbe rofe me rgenc yr oom vi sitsa s soc i
    ate d
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    -n
    crea ses ,whi let hepur ltyOfc oca ineont hes tre etwa sg rowl nga ndt hes tre etpr l
    C e
    wa sf a lling( Fi gur e7- ll ).Byt hes eme as ur es,c oc a i
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    ava i
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    tywa sg rowl ng. Cr iti
    cs ,C itlngt hef ailur eofpr ohi bi t
    ioni nt he1 920sa nd
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    a e df ors tronge rde ma nd-
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    dr ug- enf orceme ntpr ogr amsa st he ys truggl edt oga lnal a rgers ha reofmor etha n
    $1 0bi llio npe rye arde vot e dt ot hewa rondr ugs.
    Suppor t
    er soft hei nte rdi ctions trategya rgue dt ha tt hes ur ve yda tadi rec tly
    me asur edwha tc ount s -t heus eofdr ugs -whi leot he ri ndi ca torswe rei ndi r
    e ct.
    The ya rg uedt ha trisinga rre str a t
    esa nds eizur esrele
    f ctedgr ea t
    e re nfor ceme nt ,not
    g rea t
    e rdr ugus e,andwe ret he r eforeas lgnOfs uc cess ;fa llingpr ices , r
    lSlngPur ity,
    andt hes urgei nme dica le me rge nc iesa ndde athss impl yr e le
    f c te dt hes ubs titution
    ofmo r epot entc rac kf ort hel es spur epowde rfor m. Cr itic sofi nte rdi c
    tiona ndt he
    sur ve yda taa rgue dt ha td rugus e rsa relessl i
    ke lytha nl aw- abi dingc itizenst obes e-
    lec tedf ororpa r
    ticipa tei nt hes urve ys･ Ma nyc oca i
    neus er sa rel ike lyt ode nyt he y
    us edrugswhe nt hegove rnme nta sks .De fende rsoft hes ur ve yspoi nt edt ot hes o-
    phi stic ate ds ampl i
    ngme thodst he yus edt oa ccountf orpos sibl eunde rrepr es ent a-
    tionofc er t
    ains ubpopul ations ･ The ygua rant eeda nonyml tyt OS ur ve yr e sponde nt s
    andc laime dt hatwhi leH[ t]heva lueofs el
    f-repo rtsobvi ous lyde pe ndsont hehon-
    es tya ndme mor yofs ampl e dr esponde nts[,r ]esearchha ss uppor tedt heva lidityof
    se lf-r
    e po rtda tains imi la rc ont e xts "(SAMHSA1 99 4) .
    Int hel ate1 98 0S血eNa tiona ll nstit
    uteofJ us t
    icec ommi ssione das tudyt or e-
    sol vet hea ppa rentpa ra doxofde c l
    iningmea s
    ure sofc oc a i
    neus ea ndr i
    s l
    ngC On-
    sumpt lOn,C rime,a rr ests,a ndde aths.Aspa r
    toft hes tudy,as ys te m dyna mi c s
    mode lwa sde ve lope dt oi nt egr a t
    et hede ma nda nds uppl ys ide soft hema rke t
    (Home r1 993,1 997) .Thef ullmode lc onsis t
    edofs e ve ra lhundr ede qua tionsa nd
    inc lude dade tai
    le dr epr es ent at i
    onoft hes toc ka ndflows truc tur eofus ers ,a l
    ong
    wi ht
    t hef e edba c
    ksa mo ngdi fe re ntma rketa ctors,thema r ke t,a ndt hec rimi na ljus -
    tices ys tem.
    Fi gur e71 12S howsas impl ifiedr e present at
    ionoft hes toc ka ndf lows truc tur e
    fort hedi fe rentc a
    te gor iesofdr ugus ersr epresent edi nt hemode l. TheNHSc on-
    side rsa llpe rsonsa ge1 2a ndove rtobepot entialdr ugus er s･Aspe opl ei nt hi sa ge
    gr oupf ir stex perime ntwi thc oc ainet heymovef romt he" ne ve rus ed"popul ation
    tot hes toc ko fa c ti
    vec as ua lus ers( thos ewhoha veus e dc oc ainei nt hepa stmont h
    buta renota ddi cted). Somec a sua lus ersf i
    ndt he yc annotc ont rolt he irc oc ainec on-
    sumpt lOna ndbe comec ompul s iveus ers.Ac tiveus ers ,bo thc a sua la ndc ompul sive,
    ca ns to p,be comi ng" t
    r ans itiona lus ers"( t
    hos ewhoha veus e dc oc ainei nt hepas t
    ye ar, butno ti nthepa stmont h) ,Tr ans it
    iona lus ersca nr ela ps e,be c omi nga ctive
    us ersa ga in.Af teraye a rwi t
    houta nyc oca ineus e, r
    t ans i
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    ase x-us e rs･Somee x-us er sr el aps e,be comi nga ctiveus e rsa ga in･Ot he rsqul tpe r-
    ma nent ly.The rea re,ofc our s e,de athr atesoutofea c hs toc k,bot hf rom dr ug-
    relate dc aus esa nda llot he rs our ces｡
    Thef ullmode lha samor ec ompl exs tocka ndf low s t
    ruc tur et ha ns hown
    inFi gur e7- 1 2,e xpl icitlydi stingui shingbe twe enc as ua la ndc ompul sivet rans i-
    ti
    ona la nde x-us ersa ndbe t
    we enus e
    rsofpowde ra ndc r ac kc oc a ine.Themode l
    acc ount edf ore s
    c alationf romc asua ltoc ompul siveus ea ndf ors wi tc hingbe twe en
    powde ra ndc rac k.Thi sdi sa ggr e ga t
    ionwa sne ces sarybe caus et hepr oba bi li
    tie s
    ofmovi ngf rom ones tatet oa not he rde pe ndont hef or ma ndi nt ens l
    tyOfus e.
    Compul siveus ersa rel es sl i
    ke lyt oqui tandmor elike lyt or e l
    a ps e, andc ra ckus er s
    aremo rel i
    ke lyt oes cal atef r om c asua ltoc ompul siveus ea nds uf ferhi ghe rr e -
    laps er a tes.
    Ch
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    Not et ha tthec atego r


    iesofus einthemode lcanbedi rectlyc o mpa r
    edt othos e
    usedi nt hes ur
    ve ys .Thet otalnumbe rofa c t
    iveus e r
    s, bothc asua landc ompul sive,
    forbot hpowde ra ndc rack, i
    sthenumbe rofpe oplewhoha vea ctua l
    lyus edc ocaine
    inthepa stmont h. Thes umoft hea cti
    veus ersa ndt het ra
    ns it
    iona lusersist hetotal
    numbe rwhoa ctua l
    lyus edc oc a
    ineint hepa styea r.Finall
    y, thes umofa ctive,tran-
    sit
    iona l,ande x-us ersisthet otalnumbe rwhoha vee ve ruse dc oc ai
    ne.
    Wha ta rethede termina ntsoftheinitia
    tionr ate-wha tcause spe opletous ec o-
    cainef ort hef i
    r s
    tt ime?St udi esshowmos tpe oplebe ginus ingdr ugsthroughpe er
    inf
    lue nc e-byo bs ervlngOt hersus l
    ngdr ugsa ndt hrought he i
    rme mbe rs
    hipi ns o-
    cialne twor ksi nwhi c hot hersus edr ugs( tha tis,byha ngingwi tht hewr ong
    crowd) ･ Asmor epe opl estartus i
    ngc ocaine,t hes ocialne t
    wo rksofus er
    se xpa nd,
    bringingS tillmo r enonus ersintoc ontactwi ththedr ug,i napos i
    tivef eedba ck
    proces sa nalogo ust ot hes preadofa ni nfectiousdi sease( chapte r9)･Thes tre
    ngt h
    ofthes ocile
    a xpos ur efeedba ckde pendsont hes oc i
    a lauraoft hedr ug:howc hic
    cocainei spe rceive dtobe( isthisthed rugt heopi nionl eade rs,thebe a
    ut
    if ulpe o-
    ple,areus ingt hisye a r?
    ).Thepos it
    ivef eedba cka lsode pendso nwhe therc urrent
    254 P
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    a ndpot e ntialus er svi e wt hedr uga sbe nig n-i sl tPe r ce ive dtoo ffe ragoodhi gh
    wi ho
    t utne ga tivee fe c t
    ss uc ha sa ddi ctio n, ba dt ripso rt her isko fs udde nd ea th?
    Pr iceha sac o mpa rative lymode s
    te f fect, atle asti nhi ghe rs ocioe co no mi cg rou ps,
    be c ausehi h pr
    g ic ea nds ca rcltyC Onf ers o cials tatuso nt hos ewhoc anpr o videt he
    d rugf わrf riendsa tpa r t
    ie so ri nt hewo rkpl ace.I nthemi d1 970S ,a st hec oca ine
    e pide mi cbe ga n,c oc ainewa svi e we da sabe nig n,no na ddi cti
    ved rugpos l
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    he a l
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    ainpr of es s
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    se lf-reinfo rcingpr oc es se sa r ec aptur e dbyt heWo rdofMout hl oo pRli nFi g-
    u re7- 13.
    Thed yna mi c so ft hema rke tr ein fo rce dt heg rowt hoft hee pide mi c. Asc o n-
    sumpt ioni nc re ase d,t hes uppl ys ideo ft hema rke tbe ca memuc hmo ree fi cient.
    Pr icede cli
    ne da ndpu rltyl nC re aSe d. Theg rowl ngs caleoft hei nd us t
    r yc re a t
    e dhuge
    inc entive sf ort ec hno l og l
    C ala ndo rga niz ationa lin nova tio nbypr od uc er sa nds mug-
    g lers･ Thei ntroduc tionofc rac kc oc ainei n1 98lwa st hemos ti mpo r tant ,bu tf ar
    fro mt heo nly ,te chni c al inno va tio ni nt hema rke tAsi nma nyl egl t
    lma tei nd ustrie s
    ,
    g rowt hl e dt opr od uc tio na nde spe c iallyd ist
    ribut io ns c a l
    ee conomi es .Ho rizo ntal
    andve rticalma r ke ti nte gra tiont hroug ht hec oc ainec arte lscutc os tsa ndl edt o
    mo rec o nsiste ntpr od uc tq ua l i
    ty .Gr owl nge xpe rienc el e dt oas ubs t antia lle arnlng
    cu rvea sha rve stlng,Pr oduc tio n,s muggl i
    ng,di stribut io n,a ndmone yl a unde ring
    ope r
    a ti
    o nswe rei mpr ove d･ The ses c alea ndl earnl nge ffe ctsc reate da ddi tio na lpos -
    itivef ee dba cksl ea dingt owi dera va i
    l ability,g rea terpu rly,
    t andl owe rpr lCe S,ma k-
    ingc oc ainea 耽) r da blea nda c ces siblet oa ll(loo pR2) ･
    Asl onga spe o plepe rc eive dt hehe a lt
    ha ndl ega lr i
    s ksofc oc ainet obes ma ll
    ,
    the sepos iti
    v ef ee d ba cksdomi na te dt hes ystem. Co caineus emus hroo me d, sprea d-
    1ngg ra dua l
    ly血. o mmi ddl ea ndu ppe ri nc o me ,t rend- c ons c iouspo pul a tionsont he
    ea sta ndwe stc oa s tstoe ve rys oc iala ndi nc omel e veli ne ve r
    ys ta t
    eoft hec ou ntry.
    Whyt he nd idt heda tas hows uc hal a rged r opl nt hei nc i
    de nc eofc ur rentc o-
    ca ineus ea fter1 98 5?Su ppo rter soft hei nterd ictions t
    r ate gyc re ditedt hea d mi nis-
    tration' ssu ppl y- sidepo licy. The ya rgue dt ha te nha nc e de nf orceme nti nc re asedt he
    frac t
    io no fc oc aines e ized,c ut t
    ingt hea va ilabi l
    ityo ft hedr ug( theba la nc ingSu p-
    plyDi sruptio nl oo pB1 )a ndt ha ta gg re ssive l
    ya rre sti
    nga ndi nca rce ratingpus he rs
    andus ershe lpsc lea nupt heSt ree ts( t
    heba lanc ingl oo pB2) ･Bo tht he s ene ga t
    ive
    loo ps ,itwa sa rg ue d, c utd rugus e ,a sind icatedbyt hes u rve yda ta.
    Howe ver ,s t
    oc ka ndf low s truc tur ef o rd ugus
    r e rss howe dt ha tthes ur ve yda ta
    coul dnotbec or rec ta ndwe res ubs tant iallyunde rsta tingt hepr eva lenc eo fd ug
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    us e･Ina dd i
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    ki nga bou tpa stmo nthus e, theNHSa sksr espo nd e nt sift he y
    ha veus edc o ca inei nt hepa stye a ra ndi fthe yha vee ve rus edc oc a i
    ne . Home rca re-
    fuiiydi sagg re ga tedt heus erpo pul ationi ntos toc ksc or res pond ingt ot he sec ate-
    go riess ot hemode lc oul dbedi rec tl
    yc o mpa redt ot heda t
    a .
    Fig ure7- 1 4s howst heNHSda taf ort hef rac t
    io noft hepo pul aionwhor
    t e-
    spo nd eda ffirma tive lywhe na ske di ft he yha de ve rus e dc oca ine.Not et hatt he
    repo rtede ve r-us e d- coc ainepo pul ationpe aksi n1 98 2a ta bout1 2% a ndf al
    l st o
    abo utl o啄by1 988.
    Thel ifetimec oc ainepr eva lenc eda tai nFi gur e71 1 4i sther atiooft hee ve r-
    us edpo pul ationt ot het otalpo pul ation( t
    hos ewhone ve rus edpl ust hos ewhoe v er
    use d)A Thei nflowt ot het ot als toc kofpe opl ewhoha vea c tua ll
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    t ateofc urrenta ndpas tuserst o
    exc eedt hei nitiationr at
    eofne w us ers･3Ye tthes urve yda tare porteda3･ 2% dr op
    int henumbe rofpeopl ewhoha veeve rus edc ocainef rom 1 982t o1 988.Eve ni f
    ther atea twhi c hpe opl etriedc oca inef ort hef irstti
    mef e l
    ltoze roin1 985- e ve n
    ife veryma n,woma n,a ndc hildi nt heUSwhoha dneve rus edc oca ineJ usts aid
    NO! ,somet hingnoteve nthea dmi nistrati
    onbe l
    ieved- mor talityratesoft hee ve r
    -
    use dpopul at i
    ona ret oos ma lltoca uset her e
    por tedde clinei nt henumbe rofpe o-
    plewhohaveeve rtriedcoca ine.Eve nwi tht hemos topt l
    mi sticestima t
    esf ort he
    dec li
    nei nthei nitiationr ate,itisphys icallyi mpos siblefort hes tockofpe oplewho
    havee verus edcoca inet of allasqui cklya st hes urve yss ugges ted･4
    W hyt hendi dt her epor tedi nc i
    de nceofus efalls odr ama t
    icall
    ya 氏e r1 985?
    The rea retwoma inr easons .First, t
    hes ur ve yspr esumet ha ttheirs ampl esa reprop-
    erlys t
    ratifi
    e d,t ha tis,tha tther epr esentationa ndr espons era t
    esofs ubpopul ati
    ons
    (suc ha sdiffer entgeogr aphic,e thni c,r acial,a nds oc i
    oeconomi cgr oups )a rea-d
    j
    us tedt oma tcht hepr opor t
    ionoft hes egr oupsi nt heove rallpopul ationa ndt hat
    anyunde rrepr es entationi sc onsta ntthrought i
    me.Hea vydr ugus ers,howe ve r
    ,a re
    muc hles sli
    ke lyt obei nterviewedf orthes urve y.Thought heNHSme t
    hodol ogy
    attempt edt oa dj ustf orthi sunde rrepr esenta ti
    on,the yc aut i
    onedt hat
    Preval
    enceest
    ima t
    esforspe
    cifi
    csubgr
    oupsa r
    esome t
    imesbasedo nmod estt
    o
    sma l
    lsamplesi
    zes,whichma yle
    adtosubst
    anti
    alsampli
    nge r
    ror‥.[ T]hisrepor
    t
    doesnotprese
    nte s
    ti
    ma t
    esforsomesegmentsoftheUSpo pul
    ationtha
    tma yc on-
    ta
    inas ubs
    tant
    ialpropor
    ti
    ono fdr
    ugusers,s
    uchastransi
    ent
    sno tr
    e s
    idi
    nglnS helt
    ers

    3InprlnC
    IPle
    ,theli
    fet
    imep r
    evle
    a n cefra
    ctionc o
    uldfanifthos
    eintheev er
    -usedp opul
    atio
    ne mi-
    gra
    tedfromtheUSt ootherc ounr
    t le
    Sa taratemu chhigherth
    nt
    a hatofthosewh oh aveneverused
    c
    o c
    aine.Theserat
    es,howev er
    ,ren
    a eli
    g ib
    g le.Forthesurveytobecorrec
    t t
    hereq u
    iredoutmlgra
    tio
    n
    ofdruguser
    swo uldgrea
    tye
    l xc
    ee dall out
    mlg ra
    tionfr
    o mtheUS.
    4Thep r
    obleminthesurv eydatai swo rs
    e.Th eNHSr eport
    edad ro
    pi nthefracti
    ono fthepopul
    l
    ati
    ont h
    athaseverusedco cai
    ne.Th ed ecli
    neinr el
    ati
    velif
    eti
    mep rev
    a l
    encewo uldrequlr
    ethe
    d
    e a
    thrateoffor
    me rcocai
    n euserstog reatl
    ye xceedthedeat
    hr a
    teofthosewh oh a
    ven everused
    c
    o c
    in
    a e,Thediferenc
    eind eathra te
    s, however,isver
    ys mall
    ,part
    lyduetothel owex ces
    smo rt
    all
    l
    tyOfa c
    tiv
    eus e
    rsandlargelybeca usemo stme mb er
    softheever-
    usedp opul
    ati
    o nnolon g
    eru s
    e
    c
    o c
    aineande xpe
    rien
    cemo rt
    ali
    tyr at
    e saboutthesamea sthenever
    -us
    e dpopulati
    on･
    Ch
    apt
    er7 Dy
    nami
    cso
    fSt
    ock
    san
    dFl
    ows 257

    (
    e.
    g.,
    use
    rsofs
    oupki
    tche
    nsorr
    esi
    dent
    sofst
    ree
    tenc
    ampme
    nts
    )andt
    hos
    ein
    car
    cer
    -
    a
    tedi
    ncoun
    tyj
    ail
    sorSta
    tea
    ndFeder
    alpr
    is
    ons(SAMHSA1994)
    .

    Tha ti s,f ewf e de ralwor ke rsa rewi llingt oknoc ko nt hedoor sofac ra ckhous et o
    a s
    kt heo cc upa nt swhe t
    he rt he yus ei ll
    e ga ldr ugs ･Cons e que nt l
    y,a ctivea nde s
    pe -
    ciallyc o mpul s iveus er sar eunde r
    re pre se nte di nt hes ur ve ys .Be ca uset hes epo pu-
    1ati
    onsgr e wr api dl yl nthe1 980S ,t hes ur ve yss ys tema tica llyunde re stima tedt he
    growt hi nc oc a ineus e.
    Se c o nd,a ndmor ei mpor ta nt y,1
    l nC re aS l
    ngl ega lrisksc aus edal ar ge rf rac t
    ion
    ofc ur r
    e nta nde spe c ia l
    lyf or me rus e rst ode nyt he ye verus e dc oca ine･ Inpl a inla n-
    gua ge, mo repe opl el ie da boutt heirpa stc oc aineus e. Thec hangi ngdi stribut ionof
    coc aineus er sa ndde c li
    nlngS OC iala c cept a nc eofc oc ainel edt os ys tema ticunde r-
    e s
    tima tio nofc oc ainepr eva le nc ei nt hes ur ve yda ta.
    Byi nt eg ra tinga llthea va ila bleda tai nt oac ons i
    ste nta nduni fiedf rame wor k,
    themode lpr ovi de dmor ea c cur atees ti
    ma tesofdr ugus et ha nwe r ea va ilabl epr evi-
    ous l
    y. Mode le s ti
    ma tesoft hee ve r-us edpo pul a t
    i on( alongwi tht heot he rca tego ries
    ofdr ugus e )We rede rivedt obec ons istentwi thot he rde mogr aphi c,c rime ,he alth,
    prlCe, andpur ityd at a, cons traine dbyt hes toc ka ndf lOws t
    r uc t
    ur eoft hepopul at
    ion
    ande pide mi ol og lCa la ndme di c alda taonhe alt
    hr i sks .Unde rs t
    a ll
    di ngt hedyna m-
    icsoft hes toc ksa ndf lOwsofus ershe lpsr econc il ethea ppa rent lyc ont ra dic t
    or y
    data. Fi gur e71 15c ompa re st hemode l'sbe ha vi orf orr e por tedl if etimeus ea ga lnSt
    thes urve yda ta , alongwi tht hemode l'se s tima t
    eoft hea c tua le ve r-use dpopul ati
    on.
    Thea ctua lpopul a tionofpa stus ersmus tha vec ont inue dt ogr owbe c aus et henum-
    berofpe o pl et ryi ngc oc ai
    nef ort hef i
    r sttimee xc ee de dt hede athr ateoft hos ewho
    hade ve rtr iedi t.Thea vailabi lity, pur lty, andus eofc oc ainewe rei nf ac tinc rea s
    lng
    througho utt hel ate1 98 0sdes pi tet hebi llionss pe ntone nfo rce me nta nds uppl y
    reduc tion.
    Inhi nds ighti ts e emsq ul teO bvi oust ha tt hes toc kofpe opl ewhoha vee ve rus e d
    coc ainec a nnotd e cli nea sr a pi dlya st heda tas ugge s ted,S ot hes urve yda tas houl d
    imme di ate lyha vebe e nc ha llenge d. Buthi nds ighti sa lwa ysc rys tlc
    a le ar .Thef act
    rema inst ha tt hed a tawe renotc ha llenge d. Ins tea d, thegove mme ntus edt hes ur ve y
    datat ot a kec r edi tf orwi nni ngt hedr ugwa r ,toj us t ifyi nte ve
    r ntioni nt hea ffairsof
    otherna tions ,a ndt ol obbyf o rt oughe rpe na ltie s,gr eate rpowe r sf orl a we nf orc e-
    me nta ge nc ies ,mor epr lSOnS ,a ndmor er e sour c e st ode f endt hebor de rsoft heUS
    agalnS tt het hr ea toff oreigndr ugs .
    Pe rha pst hea dmi nistrationkne wt heda taove rs tatedt her e duc tioni ndmgus e
    andus edi tc yni c allyt oma ni pul atepubl ico pini ona ndt hec o ng res s･Eve ni ft r
    ue,
    itil
    nme dia telybe gst heque stionofwhyot he rsi ngove mme nt,a longwi tht heme -
    dia,pol ic ya na lys ts ,a ndt hepubl ica tl ar gedi dnotr e cognl Zet hef la wi nt heda ta.
    Thea dmi ni stra tion,c ongr es s,a ndt heme di aa llfoc us edont heda tas howi ng
    recentus e -t heNHSpa stmont ho rpa stwe ekda ta ,alongwi tht heHSSS-r a t
    he r
    thanl ifetimeus e･Re centus epr ovi de sabe tte rs na ps hotofc urre ntdr ugt r ends ,and
    showe dt hel arge s tde c l
    ine,ma kingt hec a semos tf a vor abl et ot hea dmi nis t
    ra ti
    on.
    Howe ve r,t heda tas howi ngde c li
    nei nr e ce ntus ec onf ounde dt hea ctua lde c l
    ine
    inus ewi tht hei nc re a seinunde rr
    e por tlng. Thet wos our c esofde clineca nnotbe
    disent angl e df rom t her ece nt-us eda tabe c aus et her e
    c e ntus ers tockc andr opa s
    peopl equi t;like wi se, pastus er sa geoutoft hehi ghs chools eni orpopul ation･ I
    ti s
    258 P
    art
    IIT
    ool
    sfo
    rSy
    ste
    msTh
    ink
    ing

    0
    3
    (
    GURE7 -15

    uo!
    FJ

    tt2一ndod -
    Si mul at edvs.
    ac tual popul ati
    on

    0
    ofl i
    fet i
    mecoc aine

    2
    o uoF
    us ers
    Not et hatwhi l
    et he

    to2
    tJI) aUuaH

    0
    1
    suⅣe ydat ash ow
    adr opl ntheev er-
    us edpopul at i
    on t2^aJd
    after1982, t
    he
    model esti
    mat es
    1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996
    fort heac t
    ua一
    popul at i
    onof ce.
    Sour -
    Home
    r(1
    993,1
    997) .

    thosewh oh av e
    everus edc ocaine
    con tinuet or is
    e,
    Onlybye xplic
    itl
    ya cc
    ountingf o
    rthes t
    ockandflows tr
    uctur
    eofdrugus e-forthe
    thoughata
    inexorabl
    ea ccumulat
    ionofus er
    sintotheever-
    us e
    dpopulati
    on-thatthetwoc om-
    dJr
    mi nishi ngr ate.
    lncreasl ngl egal petingSOurCeSOfde c
    lineinc urr
    entuseda t
    acanbes eparat
    ed.Unfortunat
    ely,t
    he
    ri
    sk s一 edt oal arge abilit
    ytounde rs
    tandba s
    icstockandflowr ela
    tionshi
    psisfart
    oorarei noursoci
    -
    i
    ncr eas ei nt he etytoday,evena mongma nypr ofes
    sionalpoli
    cya nal
    yst
    s.
    fractionoHor mer
    us erswh odeni ed 7L
    3.1 TheCocai
    neEpi
    demi
    ca熊er1990
    t
    hei rc oc ai
    neu se.
    Themode ls howe dpe r suasivelyt hatt hes ur ve yda tas igni ficant l
    yunde re st
    ima ted
    coca ineus ea ndhi ghlig htedthef ailureoft hes uppl y- si
    des trate gy. AsMa cCoun
    andRe uter( 1997, p.47)puti t,"Thepr obabi li
    tyofac oc a ineorhe roins ellerbe ing
    incarc eratedha sr i
    se nsha rplysinc ea bout1 985butt hatha sl edne it
    he rtoi ncrea sed
    prlCenorr educ eda vailabilit
    y.MHowe ve r
    ,ac losel ooka tt hes i
    mul ationi nFigur e
    7-15s howst ha tbyt hel a t
    e1 98 0st henumbe rofpe opl ewhoha de verus ed
    coca ine ,thoughs ti
    llrising,wa sgr owi nga tadi mi nishi ngr ate･ The re f
    or ethei ni -
    tia
    tionr atemus tha vebe enf al
    ling. Byt hemi d1 990S ,hee
    t pide mi cbe gant oa ba te:
    hegr
    t owt hofc oc aine-relatedme dica le me rge nciesa ndde athss l
    owe d;a rrestsf ell
    sli
    ght ly. TheONDCPes tima tedne timpor tsi n1 995a tbe t
    we en421a nd51 3me t
    r ic
    tons,wi th98me t
    rict onss ei
    zed,l e avl ngne tc ocainea va i
    labl eont hes t
    reetsof
    Ame ricaa ta boutt hree- qua r
    tersthe1 989l e ve l
    . Themode l,Orlgl nallyde velope d
    inthel a te1 980S ,fore castthes edr a ma t
    ics hiftsi nc oc aineus equi tewe l
    l( Fig-
    ure7- 16) .
    Not etha tt hepoi nt-by-pointf itoft hemode lint he1 990si sn'tpe rfec t,andyou
    shoul dr A
    IOte xpe cti ttobe.Si mul ateda rrest
    sa re,t
    oohi gh,a ndt hemode ldoe snot
    trac
    kt het empor arydi pi nc ocainer ela tedme di caleme rge nc i
    esi n1 990- 91 .Ne ve r-
    theless ,themode l'sa bilitytoc aptur et het urningPOl nti nt hee pide mi c,f rom
    expone nt i
    algr owt ht ogr adua lde cline,i squl ter ema r ka ble,c ons ide ri
    ngt hatt he
    simul ationss howni nFi g ure7- 16We reba sedonda taa va ilableonl yt hrough1 989.
    Theon lye xoge nousi nput sa ffectlngmode lbe havi ora fter1 990a r et het arge t
    popul ation( thos ea ge1 2a ndove r )a ndt hepr eva l
    e nc eofma r i
    jua naus e( apr oxy
    fors oc ialtole ra nc eofdr ugs).Cha ngesi nda ta-repor tings ystemsa ndde finiti
    ons
    we r
    enoti nc l
    ude d.
    Cha
    ptr7
    e Dy
    nami
    cso
    fSt
    ock
    san
    dFl
    ows 259

    GURE7
    FI ･
    16
    Simu一atedvs.

    J
    ea^p 一
    actualcocai
    ne

    0
    0
    6
    epidemic

    doad
    Dash edli
    nes,

    4
    0
    0
    data;soli
    dli
    nes,

    pues
    model .

    nouト
    2
    0
    0 1976 1
    980 1984 1988 1992 1996
    Jt
    2a^P

    5
    0
    L
    do￠
    d
    pu 2Sn

    2
    5
    OL
    I
    J

    1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996


    0
    0
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    tt
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    0
    0
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    od 0u Ut
    0
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    0
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    1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996


    ce:H
    Sour o
    mer
    (1993,1997)
    .

    Addi ngadd i
    tionale xogenousi nputsC Ouldimprovet hef i
    ttot hedata.But
    mode lss houl
    dn otbet unedt ofitdatabyi ntroduci
    nge xogenousva r
    iable
    swhos e
    solefu ncti
    onistoimpr ovethec orres
    pond e
    nc eofmode loutputtoda t
    a･Exogenous
    variablesmus tbejusti
    fiedbys ignifi
    cantrea lworldevide nceindependentofthei
    r
    potentialcont
    r i
    butiontohi s
    tori
    ca lfi
    t.Furhe
    t r,Vari
    abl
    esi nvolvedi nanyfeedback
    loopsj udgedt obepot ential
    lysignifica
    ntr elat
    ivetot hemode lpurposemus tbe
    capture daspartofthemode l
    'sendoge nouss tr
    uctur
    ea ndc a
    nnotbeus edasexoge-
    nousI nputstOimpr ovehi s
    tori
    calf i
    t.
    260 Pa
    rtIT
    I わ
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    emsTh
    ink
    ing

    Whi let hemode ls howst ha tt hes urve yda taove restima tedt hede clinei nc o-
    ca ineus e,mode l-ge ne ra tede st
    ima t esoft hea c tua lnumbe rofa ctiveus er s,whi le
    re ma ini ngS igni fica ntlyhi ghe rt ha nt hee stima tesr e por t
    e di nt hes ur ve ys , dos how
    ade c l
    ine. Thef ie ldr es ea rc ha ndmode lr esultss howe dthedr opl nc oc aineus ewa s
    notca us edpr ima rilybyt heSuppl yDi srupt ionLoopBli nFi gur e7- 130rbyt he
    Cl e anupt heSt ree tsl oopB2,a ss uppor te rsoft hei nte rdic tionpol icyc laime d.
    Ra ther ,thee xpo ne nt i
    a lg r owt hofc oc a ineus ewa se vent ua llyha ltedbyt wone ga -
    tivef e edba cksi nvol vingpubl icpe rce ptlOnSOfc oc aine' she a lt
    ha ndl ega lr isks.
    Fi rst,c oc a i
    nei snott hebe ni gns ubs tanc ei twa st houghtt obei nt he1 970S . Aspe o-
    pl ebe gant oe xpe rienc eo rhea ra boutt heNe ga tiveHe altha ndSoc ia lEfe ctsoft he
    dr ug, the ybe c amel e ssl ike lyt os ta rta ndmor el ike lyt os top( ba lanc ingl oo pl i 3i n
    Fi gur e7- 1 3). Se cond, growi ngl ega lri sksofdr ugus eduet ohi ghe ra rrestr ate sa nd
    longe rs e nte nc e sde cre as edt hewi llingnes sofpe opl etos tarta ndi nc re ase dthequl t
    ra te-t heFea rofAr re str e duc edus a ge( ba lanc ingl oopB4) ･ Ast hepopul ationof
    a ctiveus e rsbe ga nt of all, thes oci ale xpos ureofnonus e rsa lsof ell, We ake ni ngt he
    rei nfor cingWo rdofMo ut hl oop( Rl ).
    Unf or tuna te l
    y ,bot hoft he sene ga tivel oo psi nvol vel ongde lays . Firs t,the rei s
    al a gbe twe engr owt hi nc oc a ineus ea ndt hei nc ide nc eofha mf ulhe a lt
    ha ndl ega l
    e fe cts .Ast hei nitia tionr a tegr e we xpone ntia
    lly,s odi dt hes toc kofa ctivec a s
    ua l
    us e rs.Thes toc kofc ompul siveus ersa ls or os ee xpone nt ially,t houghwi thas ub-
    sta ntiall a g. Thel a gi nt hegr owt hoft hec ompul siveus erpo pul ationi si mpo r t
    a nt
    be c aus ec ompul si
    veus ersa remo r el ike lyt oe xpe rienc es eve rehe a lhe
    t fe ct s( es-
    pe c iallya st he yt urnt oc r ack)a ndmor el ike lyt oc ommi tdr ug- r elate dc rime si n-
    cludi ngpus hi ngt hed r ugt of inanc et he irownha bi ts.Thust hee xpone ntia lgr owt h
    inc oc aine -re late dc rime ,a rr es t
    s, me di ca le me r ge nc ies,a nddea t
    hsl agsbe hindt he
    gr owt hoft hec a sua lus erpo pul ation, whi chi nt ur nl agsbe hi ndt hei nitiatio nr ate.
    The rei saf urthe rl agl nt hepe rc ept ionbyt hepubl icoft het ruehe althe ff ects
    ofc oc aine. Mos tpe opl edon' tre adt heNe wEngl andJ our nalo fMe dic ineort he
    Annal so fAddi ctiont ol e a rna boutt hehe a lt
    hr isksofi ll
    e ga ldr ugs .Ins te ad, Publ ic
    pe rc eptlOnSOfr iska res t rongl yc ondi tione dbype rsona le xpe rie nc e,pe r sona l
    ac qua int anc ewi t
    hs ome oneha rme dbyc oc aine,a ndme di ar epor t
    sofhi gh- pr ofile
    indi vidua lswhowe r ea r
    r es tedf or ,in jur edby, ordi e df r
    omc oc aineus e,s uc ha sthe
    come dia nRi cha rdPr yo r,whowa ss eve r elybur ne dwhi l
    ef ree ba sing,ort heUni -
    Ve rsltyOfMa r yl andba ske tba llsta rLe nBi as, whodi edofa cut ehe artf ailur ewhi le
    doi ngc oc ainet oc ele br atehi ss ele ctiona sat opdr aftpi ckbyt heBos tonCe lt i
    c sof
    theNa tiona lBa ske tba ll As soc iation.
    Thes tr engt hofa llthe sec ha nne lsofpubl ica wa rene sst he refor el a gsbe hind
    thepopul ationofa c tiveus e rsdr ivi ngt hegr owt hoft hee pi de mi c･Expone ntial
    gr owt hi nc oc a ineus ed ide ve ntua llyr educ ethes oc iala cc epta bi l
    ityoft hed ruga nd
    thust hei ni tiat ionr ate. Howe ver, thes toc kofa c tiveus er sla gswe llbe hindt hei ni-
    tiationr ate. Thes toc kofa ctiveus e rswi llrisea sl onga sini tiatione xc eedst her a te
    atwhi chpe opl es topus lng,a ndt hes toc kofc ompul s i
    veus ersi nc re ase sa sl onga s
    thees ca lationr a t
    ee xc e edst her atea twhi chc ompul si
    veus erss t
    o p. Thedyna mi cs
    oft hes toc ka ndf lOws t
    r uc tur eine vita bl yme ant ha tthepopul a t
    ionofdr ugus ers,
    espe ciallyt hec ompul siveus e r
    sr espons iblef ormos toft hec r i
    mea ndhe althe f-
    fec ts,c ont inue st ogr owe ve na f
    te rt hei nitiationr atepe aksa ndf alls. Thede la ye n-
    sur est ha tt her e infor c ings oc iale xpos urea ndwo rdofmout hf eed ba c ksdomi na te
    Ch
    apt
    er7 Dy
    nami
    cso
    fSt
    ock
    san
    dFl
    ows 261

    thene ga tiver iskpe rcept lOnl oopsi nt hee arlyye ar soft hee pi de mi c,l e adingt oa
    la tera ndhi ghe rpe a kf ori nc ide nc ea ndpr e va lenc e.
    Still, byt hel ate1 98 0S ,ne arlye ve ryc ommunl tyha de xpe rienc e dthea rre st,in-

    jur y,Orde athofa tl ea stoneofi tspr omi s l


    ngyoungpe opl e,S lowl ys trengt he ni ng
    thene ga tivef ee dba ckst ha ts lowt hei nitia ti
    onr ate. Ir oni cally, hec
    t oc ainee pide mi c
    di dnota ba tebe caus ei nt erdi ctionma det hed rugl es sa va ilable; ont hec ont rary, the
    da tas howe dgr o wlnga cc e ssibility ,pur i
    ty, anda ffor da bi li
    tyt hr oughoutt he1 98 0S .
    ins te ad,t heve rya bunda nc eofc oca ine, byl eadi ngt oal argei nc reas ei npe rsona l
    knowl e dgeofi t sha rmf ule fe c ts,le dpe opl et ot ur na wa yf romt hedr ug･ Nol onge r
    c hic,S trlPPe dofi tss oc ia la ur aa ndbe ni gni ma ge,t hos ewhoc rave des ca pef rom
    thewor ldt urne df rom c oca inet oot he rd rugs .Thus ,thec oc a inee pide mi cwa sul -
    tima telys e lf-
    1iml t
    lng.
    Thef ee dba c ks tuc
    r tur eout line di nFi gur e7- 1 3i squl tege ne rala nda ppl iest o
    a nyha rmf uldr ug, lega lori lle ga l.Thepos i
    tivef ee dba cksge ne r atinggr owt hi nus -
    a gea c ts wi ftly, whi l
    et hene ga tivef ee dba ckst ha tde terus age,pa rticula r
    lypubl ic
    re cognl tlOnOfad rug' sha rmf ule f fects ,a reonl ype rc e iveds l
    owl y.Ther esulti sthe
    cha rac teris t
    icbo oma ndbus tpa t
    te mf o rd r ugus e･ Ea chne worne wl ypopul ard r ug
    ge ne r atesawa veofna ivee nthus i asmi nwhi c hus er se xt oli t
    sbe ne f
    its, onl yt odi s-

    c ove ra sthepopul a ti
    onofus er sgr owsa ndmo r
    epe opl ee scala tet oc ompul siveus e
    tha tt hedr ugl S n'tasbe ni gna spe opl ewe rel edt obe lie ve.
    I nf ac t, t
    hec oc a i
    nee pi de mi coft he1 98 0swa snott hef irst. As imil rbooma
    a nd
    bus tinc oc aineus eoc c ur redi nt hel ate1 8 00S .I tbe ga nwi thme dicina lus e,a sc o-
    c ainewa spr aisedbyt heme dic alc ommunl ty, i
    nc ludi ngFr eudi nhi sf amous1 88 4
    pa pe r" OnCoca ,"a sac uref oropl uma ddi c ion,a
    t lc ohol ism,f atigue,de pr es si
    on,
    ne rvo usnes s,t imi dity,i mpot e nc e,a nds ea sickne ss,a mongot he rc ompl aint s.Fol l
    lowl ngt hec las sicpa tter n,c oc ainemo ve di nt omor ege ne rala ndr ecrea ti
    ona lus e,
    be c oml nga nI ng re dienti nCoc a -Co laa nds omec lga re t
    te S.Asus es pr ead,a va
    レ i

    abi litya ndpur ityI nc rea se d;i ns te adofi nje ctingOrdr inki ngt hepr epara ti
    on, po w-
    de rf ors nor tingbe c amepopul ar.Soo nt heha mf
    r ule ffec tsbe ga nt obee xpe ie
    r nc ed,
    obs erve d,a ndr e por tedi nt heme di ca la ndpo pul a rpr es s.Byt hee arly1 900S ,c o-
    ca ineus eha ds pr ea d丘･ oms oc iale li
    t est ol owe rs oc ia lc lass es.Communi ti
    e sa cros s
    thec ount rys trug gle dt ode a lwi thc o mpul siveus e rs( knowna s" c okef i
    e nds ") ,and
    "by1 91 4t heAt lant apol ic ec hi efwa sbl ami ng70pe rc entoft hec rime s[int hec ity]
    onc oc aine "( Gr ins poona ndBa ka lar1 985,p.38) .I nr es pons e,l ega lr estric t
    ions
    andpr ohi bitionsgr ewi nc r ea slng
    lys eve re;i n1 922c ongr essde f i
    ne dc oc ainea sa
    na rc otica ndba nne di mpor ta tionofc oc a; by1 931e ve rys tateha dr e st
    ric tedi tss ale
    andmos tma depos s
    es si onac rime.Coc a i
    neus ef e llf rom i t spe aka ndr ema ine d
    low a s1 )eOl )1
    et urne dt oot he rdr ugs ,unt ilt hec ur re nte l
    )ide mi cbe ga n.Si mi la r
    wa ve sofdr ugus eha vebe enr epe a tedlyo bse rve df ort heopi a tes ,forps yc he de lics ,
    andf orva r i
    ouss ti
    mul ant sa ndba rbi t
    ur a tes .
    Whi lee pide mi c sofa nypa rticula ri llega ldr uga r eul tima telys elf-limi ti
    ng( if
    thed ru gi sha rmf ule nough)pe o pleha vea lwa yss oughtoutmi nd-a lterings ub-
    stanc es .Eve nasonedr ugf allso utoff a vor ,ne we pide mi csbe gi n, cent eredonne w
    dr ugsf orwhi c ht he rei sa sye tnoe xpe r ienc eofha r mf ule fe c tsoronol ddr ugsf or
    whi cht heha rd- wonk n owl e dgeofha r m ga ine dbypr lOrge ne rationshasf ade d
    fro mc olle ctiveme mor y. Themodes tde clinei nc oc aineus ei nt he1 990sl edt oa n
    inc re asei nt heus eofot he rdr ugs ,inc ludi ngma rijua na,me tha mphe t
    a mi ne,a nd
    26
    2 Pa
    rtI
    ITo
    olsf
    orS
    yst
    ems
    Thi
    nki
    ng

    mosttroubl
    ing,ares
    urge nc eofheroinuse,morethan20yearsaft
    erthelas
    twave
    ofheroincrest
    ed,Thisla testher
    oine pidemicwa sst
    imul
    atedbyt heusualse
    lf-
    rei
    nforci
    ngwor dofmo utha ndme diafeedbac
    ks,incl
    udi
    ngt heglori
    fi
    cati
    onof
    "her
    oinc hi
    c"inpopularc ulturea
    ndCa l
    vinKleinunder
    wearads･
    5

    7.
    4 SuMMARY
    Thi schapt ershowe dhows tocksa ndflowsge ne r
    a t
    edyna mics .Thepr ocessofa c-
    cumul a
    tioni se qulVal
    enttoi ntegrati
    oni nc a
    lculus.Thea mounta ddedt oas t
    ocki n
    anype r
    iodi se qualtothea re aswe ptoutbyt hene trateofc hangei nthes t
    ockove r
    thatpe ri
    od. Conve rse
    ly,thes lopeoft het r
    aject
    oryOfas t
    oc ka tanyt lmei sit
    sde -
    rivati
    ve, thene tr a
    teofc hange.Gr aphicalme hodsf
    t orintegrationa nddi f
    fer
    entia-
    tionwe r
    ei ntr
    oduc e
    d.Gi ve nt hebe haviorove rtimef orther atesa fecti
    nga ny
    stock,youc ande ducethebe ha vi
    oroft hes t
    ock;gl Vent hetraje ctor
    yOft hes t
    oc k
    youc ande duc eitsnetrateofc hange,allwithoutus eofc alculus .Thea bil
    it
    ytor e-
    1atestocksa ndflowsi ntuitivelyise sse
    nt i
    alforallmode lers,eve nthos ewithex-
    tensivema thema t
    icstrai
    nl ng,be causemos trealis
    ticmode lsha venoa nal
    ytlCal
    solutions.Exa mpl esshowt hatunde rst
    a ndi
    ngt hedyna micsofs tocksa ndflows ,
    evenwi t
    houtf eedback,ca nyi eldinsi
    ghti nt
    oi mpor tantproblems .

    5Furhe
    t rreadi
    ng :Shre
    ckengostd
    evel
    opedamo d e
    lfort
    heUSCI Atoe s
    ti
    mateheroi
    nimp ort
    s
    byin
    tegrat
    ingprevale
    n c
    e,crime,p
    ric
    e,pur
    it
    y ,
    ando t
    herdat
    a(Gardi
    nerandShre
    ckengos
    t1 987).
    Shr
    eckengost(19
    91 )appli
    esthef
    rameworktococin
    a e
    ･Lein
    v ,
    Hirs
    ch,andRobert
    s(1975)
    ,inThe
    Per
    sis
    tentPoppy,developas ys
    te
    md ynamicsmodelofhero
    inuseandabusei
    nac ommunityb ased
    onacasestudyofthes out
    hBr on
    x.Theyusethemo de
    ltoexpl
    oreavari
    et
    yo fpol
    icyopt
    ionsin-

    cl
    udi
    ngd emand-si
    dep oli
    cies,i
    ncr
    eas
    edenforc
    eme nt
    ,andmethado
    nema i
    nten
    ance.Seeal
    soLe v in,

    Hir
    sch,andRo be
    rts(1978).Ric
    hards
    on(1983)devel
    opsasimpl
    emo delt
    oe x
    plai
    nwh yaggressive
    pol
    ic
    ee f
    fortt
    os e
    izes t
    reet
    sup p
    li
    esofhero
    inactu
    allyI
    ncreas
    esdru
    g -
    re
    lat
    edcri
    me ･G61
    uke,

    Land
    een ,
    andMe ado ws(198la,1981
    b)develo
    pedamo d e
    lofaddi
    cti
    vebehav
    ior,
    focusi
    ngo n
    al
    cohol
    ism.Ho l
    dera ndBlose(1987
    )devel
    opamo d el
    ofcommu ni
    tyle
    velpol
    icyresp
    onsesto
    al
    cohol
    ism.Ho mere tal
    .(1982)pr
    ese
    ntasystemdy na
    micsmodelof(t
    obacco
    )smo ki
    ngand
    ana
    lyz
    eav a
    riet
    yofp oli
    cie
    s.
    ●
    C呈
    osi
    王
    1g音量
    はf_
    }
    榊声:_ -
    i!
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    naI
    f
    _
    13_
    呈
    eSポ
    S畳
    mp旦eS息
    丁眠息覗TeS

    Amathemati
    calt
    heoT
    TISnott
    Obecons
    ider
    edcompl
    eteunti
    lyouhavemadeit
    socl
    earthat
    youcanexpl
    aini
    ttot
    heji
    '
    rstmanwhomy oumeetonthes
    tre
    et.
    -Da
    vidHi
    l
    ber
    t

    Iho petosho w.‥thatmat hemati


    c alnot
    ationcanbekeptclosetothevocabulafT
    ofbu s
    ines
    s,･thate achv ar
    iablean dc onst
    antinane quationhasindivi
    du al
    me anlngtOth epr acti
    cingma nager,
    ･thatthere
    quir
    edmathe matisi
    c swithi
    nt he
    reac hofalmo stan yonewhoc ansuccessful
    lymanageamo derncor
    porati
    o n.
    lJ ayW.F or
    rest
    er(
    Indu
    str
    ialDy n
    amics
    ,1961,p.9)

    Thischapterfor
    ma liz
    esthec onnect
    ionbe tweens t
    ructureandbe haviorbyl inki
    ng
    feedbackwithstocka ndflOws tr
    ucture s
    IThef ocusisthes impl estfe
    e dba c
    ks ys-
    tems,thosewitho nestock(knowna sfirs
    t-o
    rders yst
    ems ).
    Li ne arfi
    rst10rdersys-
    tems( def
    inedinthischapt e
    r)Cange ne r
    ateexpone nt
    ialgrowt ha ndgoa l-seeki
    ng
    behavior.Nonii
    rl
    ea r
    it
    yi r
    .firs
    L-Or
    ders yste
    msc ause sshi
    ftsinthedo mina ntloops,
    1eadi
    ngf orexampletoS- Shapedg r
    owt hThec hapteralsointroduc e
    st hec oncept
    ofaphasepl ot- agraphs howingho wt henetr a
    teo fchangeo fas t
    ocki sre l
    ated
    tothes t
    ockits
    elf-a ndshowshowdyna micscanbed er
    ivedf romt hepha seplot
    withoutcalc
    ulusordi f
    fer
    e nt
    ile
    a quat
    io ns.

    8t
    l F旧ST-
    ORDERSYsTEMS
    Chapter4dis
    cuss
    edthebas
    icmode sofbe
    havi
    orgene
    rat
    edbycomple
    xsys
    tems
    andthefee
    dbacks
    tuc
    r tur
    esr
    espons
    iblef
    ort
    hem.Themostf
    unda
    menta
    lmode
    sa r
    e
    263
    264 Pa
    rtI To
    I olsf
    orS
    yst
    emsTh
    ink
    ing

    FI
    GURE8-
    1 Gr
    owt
    handgoal
    seeki
    ng:s
    truc
    tur
    eandbehavi
    or

    + St
    ateoft
    he Goal
    (
    Desl
    ]r
    ed
    St
    ateofSyst
    em)
    oft
    he
    hcrease
    ;.
    :
    ;;t
    a
    _Sニ ) S
    ヽ
    ′毒l
    yst
    em

    R･
    at
    L A
    ct
    i
    on +

    exponent ialgr owt ha nd goa ls eeking.Pos i


    tivef ee dback caus ese xponent ia
    l
    growt h,andne ga t
    ivef eedbac kcausesgoa l
    -seeki ngbehavior(Figur e8-1 ).
    Thes impl ests ys t
    emt hatca nge nerat
    et hesebe haviorsisthe丘r st
    -order,l
    inear
    feedba cks ystem.Theoy de rofadyna mics ystem orl oopist henumbe rofstate
    variables,ors tocks ,itcontains.Afir s
    t10rdersys temc ontai
    nsonl yones tock.Lin-
    ears ystemsa r esys temsi nwhi chther ateequati onsarelinearcombi nat
    ionsoft he
    st
    a t
    eva riablesa nda nye xogenousi nputs.
    Thet ermH linea r"hasapr eci
    semea nlngi ndyna mi cs:inal inea rsystemt he
    rateequa t
    ions( thene ti
    nf
    lowst othes tocks)area lwaysawe i
    ght e
    ds um ofthes t
    ate
    variables(a nda nye 呆ogenousva ria
    bl es,denotedUj):
    dS/
    dt= Ne
    tInf
    low= a
    lSl+a
    2S2+ ･･･+ a
    nSn+bl
    Ul+b2
    U2+ ･･
    ･+bmUm (811)
    wherethecoe
    ffi
    cie
    ntsa
    landb,a
    recons
    tant
    s･Anyot
    herf
    ormf
    ort
    hene
    tinf
    lowsi
    s
    nonl
    inear
    .1

    8.
    2 Posm vEFEEDBAeKAND ExpoNENTE
    ALGROWTH
    Thes i
    mplestf
    eedba
    cks ys
    temisafir
    st10rde
    rpos i
    tivefeedl
    DaC
    ki oop･lnafirst
    -
    ordersys
    tem,t
    herei
    sonlyonesta
    tevar
    iable(st
    ock),denotedherebyS･ Thest
    ate
    ofthesyst
    em a
    ccumula
    tesi
    tsne
    tinf
    lowra t
    e;intur
    n,thene ti
    nf
    lowde pendsonthe

    l
    Forexa
    mp l
    e,f
    ormul
    ati
    onsfo
    rthenet
    inlO
    f wsuc
    ha sal*Sl*S2,al*Sl/
    S2,OrMAX( 0,al*Sl)
    a
    real
    lnonl
    in
    ear
    .Theter
    m" noli
    nnear
    "isoft
    enus
    edinoth
    ersense
    s,fo
    re x
    ampletodes
    crb
    i et
    he
    n
    onchr
    onol
    ogl
    Calna
    rra
    ti
    vest
    ruct
    ureofno
    v e
    lss
    uchasCort
    azar
    'SHopscot
    ch･
    Th ete
    rmHn onl
    in
    earH
    i
    nth
    esecont
    ext
    sact
    ual
    lymeans"nons
    equ
    e n
    ti
    al
    "andhasnoth
    ingtodowitht
    hetechni
    calmeanln
    g
    o
    fli
    near
    lt
    y.
    Ch
    apt
    er8 Cl
    osi
    ngt
    heLo
    op:
    Dyn
    ami
    cso
    fSi
    mpl
    eSt
    ruc
    tures 26
    5

    st
    ateofthes
    yste
    m( f
    ornow,ass
    umenoe xogenousi
    nputs
    ).Inge
    ner
    al,t
    hene
    tin-
    fowi
    l sapos
    sibl
    ynonli
    nea
    rfunct
    ionoft
    hesta
    teofthesyst
    em:
    S-I
    NTEGRAL(
    NetI
    nfl
    ow,
    S(0)
    ) (
    8-2)
    Ne
    tIn
    low-f(
    f S). (
    8-3)

    I
    fthesys
    temi
    sli
    nea
    r,t
    hene
    tinf
    low mus
    tbedi
    rec
    tlypr
    opor
    tiona
    ltot
    hes
    tat
    eof
    t
    hesys
    tem:
    Ne
    tInf
    low-gS (
    8-4)

    wheret
    heconst
    ant蛋hasuni
    tsof(
    1/t
    ime)a
    ndr
    epr
    ese
    ntst
    he丘'
    act
    iona
    lgr
    owt
    hra
    te
    oft
    hestoc
    k.2
    Figure8- 2shows血es truct
    ureofthissyst
    em asacausaldi
    agr ama ndal
    soasa
    se
    tofe qua t
    ions
    . Asexamples,consi
    dertheaccumulat
    ionofinteresti
    ncomei nt
    oa
    bankac countorthegrowthofapopul a
    tion.Theprl
    nClpa
    la ndpr eva
    ilingI
    nter
    est
    ra
    tede t
    e rminetheinte
    restpayme nt;popula
    tionandthefracti
    ona lnetbir
    thrate
    dete
    ri net
    m henetbir
    thrat
    e.3

    Whatwil
    lthebe havi
    orofthes
    ystem be?Sec
    tion8.
    2.1usesbasi
    cca
    lcul
    ust
    o
    s
    olvet
    hedif
    ferent
    ialequat
    ion;t
    hesol
    uti
    oni st
    heexpone
    ntia
    lfunct
    ion
    S(
    t)-S(
    0)e
    xp(
    gt) (
    8-5)

    whereS(0)ist
    heval
    ueofSa tt
    heini
    ti
    alti
    met- 0･Thes ta
    teofthes
    yst
    em gr
    ows
    expone
    ntial
    lyfr
    om i
    tsi
    nit
    ialva
    lueataconst
    antf
    rac
    tiona
    lrateofgpert
    imeunit
    ･

    8.
    2.1 Anal
    yti
    cSoJut
    ion紬!.the
    Li
    nearF室r
    sトOrderSystem
    Tosol
    vethedif
    ferent
    iale
    qua t
    ionf
    ort
    hef
    irs
    t10r
    derl
    inea
    rsys
    tem,
    dS/
    dt-gS,f
    irs
    t
    se
    para
    tevari
    ables
    ,toobtain

    (
    8-6)
    普 -gdt

    Now,i
    nte
    gra
    tebot
    hsi
    des

    I
    ;-Igdt (
    8-7)

    t
    oge
    t
    l
    n( t+c
    S)-g (
    8-8
    )

    whe
    reci
    sac
    ori
    St
    ant
    .Ta
    kir
    lge
    XPOr
    ient
    iai
    sofbot
    hsi
    desgi
    ves

    2I
    ntheg ene
    r alcaseofamu l
    tis
    ta
    tesyst
    em,therat
    esofchan
    g e,dS/
    dt,ar
    eafun c
    ti
    o nf()ofth e

    st
    atevectorSan dan ye xog
    enousvaia
    r bl
    esU:dS/dt-i (
    S,U)･Inal i
    nears
    y s
    tem,t
    her at
    e sare
    l
    inearcomb in
    ationsoft hest
    at
    esandexogenou
    sv ari
    abl
    es:d
    S/dt-AS+BUwh er
    eAa ndBa r
    e
    ma t
    ric
    esofc oefici
    en t
    s .
    Forgoodtr
    e a
    tment
    soflinea
    rsyst
    emtheo r
    y,see,e
    ･g･
    ,Og a
    ta( 1
    99 7)an d
    Ka no
    r pp,Ma rgols
    i,an dRosenbe
    rg(1990)
    .
    3Repr
    esentl
    n gpop ula
    tio
    ngrowthasafir
    sトor
    d erpr
    oces
    sassume st
    hereisnodela
    yb etwe en
    bi
    rthandth eabil
    it
    yt or e
    produc
    e,ap o
    orass
    ump t
    ionformamma ls,butr
    easona
    bleforma ny
    unicel
    ll
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    .Thes e
    nonl
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    oryaboutexponent
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    AstoldbyMe a
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    lya g
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    a r
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    thsquareami l
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    n
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    icegrainsha dtobeb roughtfr
    omt hestor
    erooms.Theki n
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    hes ixt
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    82.
    5 Pr
    . ocessPoi
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    comi
    ngOver
    conf
    idence
    Cons ide ra ga lnyoura ns we rst Ot hepa perf oldi ngc hallenge･Notonl ydope ople
    unde res ti
    ma tet het hicknes soft hepa pe r
    ,butt hec or recta ns we rsfa l
    lout s
    idet he i
    r
    95% c onf ide nc eboundsa lmos ta llt het i
    me. Tha tis ,pe oplea regr oss l
    yove rconf-i
    de nti nt he irj udgme nts.
    Ove rc onf ide nc ei soneoft hemos trobus tjudgme nt a
    lbi a sesdoc ume ntedi nt he
    psyc hol ogi ca ll it
    e rature. Inac ar efulr e view,Sc ottPl ous( 1993)wr ites ,H Nopr ob-
    lemi nj udgme nta ndde cis ionma kingl Smo repr eva lenta ndmo repot ent ial
    lyc aト
    astro phi ct ha nove rconf ide nc e. "
    Ove rc onf ide nc eme anst hec onf ide ncebo undspe oplepr ovidea r oundt he ire s
    -
    tima teo fa nunknownqua nt itya ret oona rr ow,C a
    uS lnga nune xpe cte dlyhi ghr at
    e
    ofi nc or rec tpr e di ctions .Li c ht ens teina ndFi s choff( 1977)f oundt ha tpe oplewe re
    65% t o70% c onf identofbe ingr ighti na ns we rlngaVa rietyofque s ti
    onswhe ni n
    fac tthe ya ns we redc orre ctlya tonlya boutt hec ha nc era teof50%.Suc hr es ult
    s
    havebe e nr e pl ica t
    e di nawi der angeoft asksa ndwi the xpe rtsa swe lla snovi c es.
    Lic htens tein, Fi sc hof f,andPhi llips( 198 2)r evie we ds tudiest otalingne arly1 5, 000
    judgme nt sa ndf oundt ha tpe opl e'S98% c onf idenc eboundsc ont aine dt hec orr ect
    respons eo nl y68% oft het ime -a ne rr orrate1 6time sg rea t
    e rthane xpe cted.
    Ext e ns i
    ves tudyoft her e leva nti ssuec ana ctuallywor s enove rconf i denc e. Os-
    kamp( 1965)S howe dt ha tthemor ei nf orma ti
    o npe opl er ece iveda bouta ni ssue , t
    he
    mor ec o nf ide ntt he ybe ca me - whi lea ccurac ydi dnoti mpr ove.Fi na nc ialinc en-
    ti
    vesdonotr e duc eove rconf i
    de nc e: Ins omes tudi ess ub jectswe regi ve nt heo pt10n
    ofbe tt
    ingont he ira ns we rsa tt heoddst heye stima tedf orbe ingc or rect .The yc on-
    sistentlyl os tmone y.
    situa tionsi nwhi chpe opl e'sc onf idenc eboundsa rea ppr oxima telyc orrec tare
    rare･ We a t
    he rf or ec astersa ndpr ofes siona lc ardpl a ye rsarea mongt hef ewgr o ups
    whos ej udgme nt sha vebe enf oundt obewe llc alibrated.The sea r ena rrowl y
    bounde dc ont e xtswhe ret her e l
    e va ntf a ct
    or sa rewe llknown･ Thous andsofr epe-
    ti
    tionspr ovi def e edba c ke na bl ingt heme teor ologi sta ndga mbl ert ol ea r
    nf rom
    expe rie nc e. Thes ec ondi tionsdonothol df ormos tdyna mi ca l
    lyc ompl e xs e t
    tlng
    S,
    Ch
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    eSt
    ru
    ctu
    res 273

    inc ludi ngj udg me nt sa boutt hel ike lybe ha vioroff eed ba cks yste ms :t heca us al
    s truc tur e,r el eva ntva ria bles ,a ndpa ra me tersa rehi ghl yunc e rt
    a ina ndl arge lyun-
    known( s eec hapt er1 ).Inmos tsoc i
    a la ndbus ine sssituationst het imede laysa res o
    longt he r ei sl i
    ttleornoc ha nc et ol ea rnf rom e xpe ri
    e nce;byt het imef eedba cki s
    a va ilabl ei twi llbet ool atet ot akee fe ctivea ction･Ma nyl nVe StOr Sa ndmone y
    ma na ge rsdur ingt hegr e atbul lma rke tsoft he1 920sa nd1 980S -90sne ve re xpe ri-
    e nc edama rke tc rasha ndunde re stima tedt hel ike l
    ihoodofdec lini ngs ha repr ic es.
    Andf o ri s suess uc ha sgl oba lc lima tec ha nget hewor ldmus ta doptpol i ciesr e-
    ga r dinge mi ssionsofgr ee nhous ega sesde cade sbe f
    or et hef ulli mpa c tofhuma n
    a ctivit yOngl oba lc lima t ewi llbeknown.Ove rconf idenc eme ansyouwi llpr oba -
    bl ybuyt ool ittlei ns ura nc ea nda rel ike lytowa keuponeda yt of indyouha vei n-
    suf fic ientc ove rage･Be f oret heCha lle nge re xplos ionNASAe stima tedt her iskof
    c ata strophi cl au nc hf ai
    lur ea t1i n1 00, 000･9
    Asa ni llustra tiont ha te xpe rt
    sa ref a rfromi mmunet oo ve rconf ide nc e ,c ons ide r
    thede ba teove rgl oba lwa rmi ng｡Thee conomi s tWi lliam Nor dha us( 1994)c on-
    duc tedas ur veyofdi stingui she de xpe rtsongl o balc lima tec ha nget oa sses st he ir
    vi ewso nt hel i
    k elye conomi ce fe c tsofgl oba lwa rml ng. Nor dha usa ske dt hepa ne l
    toe stima tet hel os sofgr os swor ldpr oduc t( GWP)Ca us edbyva riousa mount sof
    wa rml ng. Ther es ultss howe dahugegul fbe twe ent hees tima tesoft hes c ienti sts
    c ompa re dt ot hee conomi sts･Sc ient istse st
    ima tedt hepr oba bi l
    ityofaH high-
    c ons e que nc ee ve nt "( ac at astrophi cc hangei nc lima tec ut t
    ingGWPby25% or
    mo r e)a s20t o3 0t imesmor elike lyt ha nt hee c onomi stsdi d. Estima tesoft hemos t
    like lyr ed uc tioni nGWPwe res i
    mi larlybi moda l,Wi t
    hs c ientistsge ne ra l
    lye stima t-
    1ngl ar gei mpa c tsa nde c onomi stsge ne r al
    lye stima t
    lngS ma l
    lore ve npos itivei m-
    pa c tsofwa rml ngOnt hegl oba le c onomy.Noo neknowswhi chgr oupl Sc orre ct.
    Wha ti ss triking,howe ve r,i st hes ma llrangeofunc e rt
    a intye ache xpe rta llowe d.
    Ea c hpr ovi de d90% c onf ide nc eba ndsa roundt heirbe ste stima tes ,ye ti nma ny
    ca se st he ser ange swe res os ma llthe ye xc lude dt hema jor ityOft heot he re xpe r ts'
    vi ews .Ec onom is ts ,whot ende dt opr edi ctsma l
    le fect s,tende dt oha vet hena rrow-
    es tc onf i denc eba nds . Onee conomi stwr ote," Iti simpos siblet oc ont empl a tewha t
    soc ietywi llbel ikeac e ntur yf rom nowa ste c
    hnol ogyc ha nges "ye te st i
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    rangi ngf rom -2%t o+1 %, Oneoft hes ma llestr ange sof feredbya nyr es ponde nt.
    Ove rc oml ngOVe r COnf ide nc er e qui resg r e
    a terhumi liya
    t boutt hel i mi tsofo ur
    ex pe rtise.Se ve ralt e chni que sc anhe lp.Li stallt her e asonsyouropl ni onc oul dbe
    wr ong･ Tr yt oi de nt ifyt hei mpl icita ssumpt 10nSOfyo urme ntalmode la ndc ons ide r
    howt heo ut comemi ghtc ha ngei fdi fe renta s
    sumpt ionsWe r
    eus ed. Be ca us ei de n-
    tifyingt hehi dd enbi a sesi nourownme ntalmode lsisdi fficult, i
    ti se spe ciallyva lu-
    abl et os o licitthej udgme nt sa ndopi nionso fadi verseg roupofpe opl e,es pe cially
    thos ewi ho
    t ppos itevi ews . Yourc riticswi llus ua ll
    ybef armor ee ffec tivei nhe lpl
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    comet he irvi e ws . Yous houl dbees pe cia l
    lys uspe ctofs tateme ntst ha ts ome thi ngl S
    abs ol ut elyc e rt
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    9
    ofcou
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    274 P
    ar IT
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    me nt
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    8.
    3 NEGATI
    VEFEEDBACKAND ExpoNENTI
    ALDECAY
    Firs
    tl0rderlinearpos it
    ivef eedbacksystemsge nera
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    811
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    ) .
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    i
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    hatequation( 8-12)i sthesa mea sequa t
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    e.Thesoluti
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    mee xpone ntialfuncti
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    8-13)

    Fi gure8- 7s howst hepha sepl otfo rthef irs


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    epl ota ndinthe
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    GURE8
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    em. Asdi scus sedinc ha pter4,a llne gativef e edba ckloopsha ve
    goa ls Jnt hec a
    seofe xpone nt i
    alde cay,suc ha sthede athra tea ndde preci
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    roJnge ne ral,howe ver,thegoa lsof
    ne ga ti
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    cit.Figur e8- 9s howsthege n-
    era ls t
    uc
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    r st
    10rde rlinearne ga t
    ivef eedba c ks ystem wi tha nexplici
    t
    goa l. Exampl esincludet hepr ocessbywhi chaf ir
    ma dj ustsitsi nve ntoryorwor k-
    forc et othede siredl evel.Pos s
    iblede laysi nc hangi ngPr oduc tiono rhiri
    ngne w
    wor kersa reI gnored.I ncludings uchde la yswoul da dda ddi tiona ls t
    ockst othe
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    Inthege neralca se,thec oITeCtivea c
    tionde termi ningt hene tinflowt othes ta
    te
    oft hes ys te
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    bl ynonl inearfunc tionoft hes tateoft hes ys tem,S,a ndthe
    des ireds tat
    eoft hes ystem,S*:
    Ne
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    . (
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    whe rethepa rameterATi sknowna hea
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    Cha
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    s 277

    GURE81
    Fl 9 Fi
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    Gener
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    S★
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    t
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    278 Pa
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    Olsf
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    Ther eciprocalofthea d
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    e, Corres
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    netinf
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    FIGURE8-
    Phas eplo
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    tfor
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    FIGURE8- ll
    Exponen t
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    appr oachtoagoal
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    sl oo
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    h
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    20t i
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    Ch
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    Dyn
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    8.
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    FIGURE8･ 15 St
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    a ndpo pul atio nde c li


    ne se x pone nt iallyt oz e ro.Be c aus et hes ys temi sl ine a r,t he
    fr actiona lne tbi rthr a tei sac ons tant ,inde pe nde nto ft hes i
    z ec ･ft hepo pul a tion,
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    ist hes um,o rs upe rpos ition,oft hebe ha v iorsge ne rate dbyt hei nd ivid ua ll oo ps.
    Be caus et hes ys temi sl ine ar( ba ndda rec ons t ants ),thedomi na nc eoft het wo
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    ,
    o rde c ayt oe xt inc t
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    ta nceoft hedi fe rentf eedba ckl o opsc a nne ve rc ha nge -t he rec anbenos hi ftsi n
    loo pdo mi na nc e. Su pe rpos itionme ansl ine arsys temsc anbea na lyze dbyr educ t
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    tot he irc o mpone nts .Asar es ul t
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    ly,ad istinc ta dva nta gei nund e rstand i
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    ul ati
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    c anne ve rc ha nge ,thepo pul atio nc ano nlyg rowf o reve r,r ema inc o ns tant ,o rgoe x-
    tin ct
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    o res hi fta sapo pul ationg ro wsr e l
    a tivet ot hec a rrylngC aPa C ltyO f
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    a ndt he refo ret he remus tbei mpor ta ntno nline ar itiesi na l lr ea ls ys t
    e ms .
    Unf ortuna t ely,ma nymod e lersha ver estricte dt he ira ttent io nt omode lstha tc an
    bee xpr e sse da sl ine a rs ys temss ot ha tthe yc ana ppl yt hepo we rfult oo lso fl ine ar
    sys temst he or y, whi lema kingt hehe r oica s
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    isr ea sona bl e. Inf airne ss ,ther e lianc eo nl ine art heo rya ndt hea voi da nc eo fno n-
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    if iablepr i
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    fo und.Ea rl yt he oris tsofd yna mi cs ys temsma det hea s sumpt io nOfl ine a ritybe -
    c ausei twa st heo nl ywa yt oma kepr og r e
    s s.Eve na ftert hea d ve ntofc omput er
    simul ation, howe ve r,tooma nymod elersa ndma the ma ticia nsc o nt inue dt os tre ss
    line arthe o rya ndbui ldl ine armode ls .Thet end e nc yt ot re ate ve rys ys tema sal in-
    ea rna ilbe c aus et heha mme rofl ine art he oryl SS Opowe rf ulha sha mpe redt hed e-
    ve lop me nto fr e alistica ndr obus tmod e lso fc o mpl ex ity･
    Ofc ou rse , thet riumpho fl ine arme thodsha sne ve rbe enc o mpl e te. Ev e npr lOr
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    ne a rmo de lswe rede ve lo pe d, mos tno-
    tabl yVe rhul st '
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    (chaos)t hattodaywer ecogni


    zea subi qui t
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    ,a ndot he r
    systems( seeUe d
    a1 992).
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    8u
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    SHAPEDGROWTH
    Nor e alqua ntl
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    1ibrium, tha tis


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    tai
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    ncons t
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    timesmor etha nne ededt o5t imesmor etha nne ededhasnoi mpa ctsinc eea chi n-
    dividua ls til
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    ea s
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    1
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    oo dp
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    7

    fra cti
    ona lde athr atewhe nP/ C- 1 . Ifthepo pul a tionwe ret or is ea bovet hec arry-
    ingC apac it
    y ,thebi rthf rac ionwoul
    t dc ontinuet of allandt hedea thf r actionwoul d
    cont inuet or is e.Asp/ Cc ont i
    nuest oi ncreas e,t hebi rthf ract i
    onmus tf allt oz ero
    andt hede ath丘. actionmus triset oave ryl argeva lue. The re fore,a ss howni nFi g
    -

    ur e8 -18,t hef r a
    c t
    iona lne tbirthr atewi l
    lbepos it
    ivef orP<C,e qua lz erowhe n
    P- C,a ndf allbe low z eroa ta ni nc reaslngr ateWhe npopul a t
    ione xc ee dst he
    ca rrylngC apa Clt
    yOft hee nvi ronme nt .Whi l
    et henume rica lva luesf ort hes er e l
    -a
    tions hipswoul ddi f f
    erf ordi ffere ntpopul a tions ,the irqua l
    itatives ha pei snoti n
    doubt .
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    t nd
    lifee xpec tancyr ela ti
    ons hips .Thebi rtha ndde at hr a tesa renowc urve sglVe nbyt he
    pr oduc to fthepo pul ationa ndf ra ctiona lbirtha ndde athr ates( Fi gur e8- 1 9). First,
    not etha tthepoi ntP=0i sane qui librium,a si nt hel ine a rs yste m.Si nc et hef rac
    -

    tiona lbirthr a tere ma insne arlyc ons t


    a ntwhe npopul a
    t ioni ss ma llr e l
    ativet ot he
    ca rryingc apa cit
    y ,thebi rthr ate( ini ndi vidua ls/timepe riod)i sne arlyl ine arf わr
    Pi C. Aspopul at
    ionde ns ltyr i
    s esa ndt hef ra ctiona lbir thr atef a l
    ls, thebi rhr
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    llg rowl ng, ri
    seswi thas ha ll
    owe ra nds ha llowe rs lope･ Ats omepol nt ,the
    de clinei nthef r
    a ctiona lbi rt
    hr ater educ est ot albi rthsmor et ha nt hei nc reasei n
    she ernumbe r sinc reasest hem,a ndt hebi rthr at er ea che sama ximum.Si nc et he
    fractiona lbi r
    thr atef allst oz erof orhi ghpopul a tionde ns ities ,sot oot het ot albirh
    t
    ratemus ta ppr oa chz ero.Li ke wi se,t hede a t
    hr a ter isesne a rlyl inea rlyf orPi C,
    buta sgr eate rpo pul ationde ns i
    tyboos tsthef ra c t
    iona ldea thr a t
    e,t het ota lde ath
    ratei ncrea sesa ta ni ncre asingr at e.
    Turnl ngt Ot hedyna mi cs,ima gl net hei nitialpo pula tioni ss ma llr elativet ot he
    ca rr
    yl ngC a
    pa c it
    y. Thene tbirhr
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    l yf orPi C･ Thebe ha vio r
    oft hes yste mi nt hisr egimeWi llbene arlypur ee xpone ntia lgr owt h. Aspopul ation
    de nsityInc re ases,t hene tbi r
    thr a tec ont i
    nue st or ise, buta tas ha llowe ra nds ha l-
    lowe rslope. Thepopul ationc ont inuest ogr owa ta ni nc rea singr ate ,butt hef rac -
    tiona lgrowt hr ateiss tea dilydi mi ni shing. Ats omepol nt , t
    hene tbir t
    hr ater ea che s
    ama ximum. Thi spol ntC OmeSa tal owe rpopul ationde ns ityt ha nt hepe a ki nt he
    birthr ates i
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    FIGURE8･ 18
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    288

    FIGURE8- 19
    Phas ep一 otfor
    non‖ near
    popul ations ys t
    em
    Ar r
    owssh owdi -
    recti
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    .

    Posi t
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    temi nt her eg10n
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    nan twher et henet (di
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    maxi mumnetbi r
    th po pul ationi nt het imedoma i n( t
    hepoi nta twhi c hthepopul ationi sr isinga ti t
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    rateoc cur satt he ma ximumr a te
    ) .Be yondt hei nf l
    ectionpoi nt, t
    hei ncreasei npopul ationde nsityr e-
    point( P/C).nf,t
    he duc esthene tbi rthr a temor et ha nt hei ncre as eint otalpopul ati
    ons izei ncre asesi t.
    i
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    es ti
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    thet r
    a j
    ec toryOf tione qua lst hec arryl ngC apa Clty.Ift hepopul atione xce ede dthec ar
    r ylngC apaC lty
    ,
    popul ation･ res our cespe rca pltaWOul dbes os c arcetha tdea thswoul de xce edbi rths,a ndt he
    po pul ationwoul df a llba ckt owa rdthec arryi ngC aPaClty･Thee qui li
    br i
    uma tP-C
    ist herefor es table.
    Figur e8- 20S howst hebe havi oroft hes ys t
    e m ove rt i
    mef ort woc ase s
    :
    (1 )whe nt hei ni t
    ia lpopul ationi smuc hs ma llertha nt hec ar
    r yingc apa citya nd
    (2)whe nt hei nitialpo pul ationi smuc hl arge rt hant hec a r
    ryingc apa cit
    y.Whe n
    P( 0)i C, hene
    t tbi r thra teisi ncrea si
    ngi nt hepopul ation. Asl onga st hes lopeof
    thene tbi rthr a
    tec urvei nt hepha sepl otispos itive,thes ys temi sdomi natedbyt he
    pos iti
    vef e edba c kl oopa ndpo pula ti
    ongr owse xpone ntially･ Unl i
    ket hel i
    ne ars ys
    -

    tem, howe ve r,thes lopeo fthene tbi rt


    hr atec urvei snotc onstant,Sot hegr owt hi s
    notapur ee xpone nt ial.I nst ea d,t hef rac t
    iona lgr owt hr at
    ef a ll
    sa spopul at
    ion
    grows .Popul ationgr owt hr e a chesi t
    sma ximum whe nthepopul a
    tionr e achest he
    va luede not ed( P/C) Im,t
    f hei nfle ctionpoi nti nt het rajector yoft hepo pulation. At
    tha tpol ntt hes lopeoft hene tbi rthr atec ur vei sz ero;t hepos iti
    vea ndne ga t
    i ve
    loopse xa c tlyof f s
    e tonea not he r.Aspopul ationc ontinue st ogrow, t
    hes lopeoft he
    ne tbir t
    hr atec ur vei nt hepha s epl otbe comesne ga t
    ive; forP/ C> ( P/ C)1nf
    ,thes ys-
    temi sdomi nate dbyne ga ti
    vef ee
    dba ck.Be ca us ethene tbi rt
    hr a t
    eha sane ga t
    i ve
    slopei nt hisr egl On, thee qui l
    i br i
    umpoi nta tP-Ci sstabl e,Apopt l
    la t
    ionl e sstha r
    )
    thec arryl ngC apa CltyWi llgr owa tadi mi ni shingr ateunt ilitre achest hec arrylng
    capa cit
    y;apopul ationl a
    r gert ha nt heca rrylngC aPaCltyWi llfal
    lunt ilitr eache st he
    carr yingCa pa c
    i t
    yf ro ma bove.

    8.
    5.1 For
    ma‡De伽 i
    ti
    omo菅LoopDom岳
    mamee
    Thephas
    epl
    ots
    howst
    heorl
    ginofthete
    rmspos
    it
    iveandne
    gati
    vef
    eedba
    ck. Pos
    i-
    t
    ivefee
    dbac
    kdomina
    teswheneve
    rt hera
    teofchangeofthest
    atevar
    iableis
    Ch
    apt
    er8 Cl
    osi
    ngt
    heLo
    op:
    Dyn
    ami
    cso
    fSi
    mpl
    eSt
    ruc
    tur
    es 289

    FtGURE8-20

    ^1
    Nonli
    near

    !3t
    2
    popul
    ati
    ongrowt
    h:

    dt
    2
    岬
    0 6u !^ J

    J
    C
    H
    ti
    medomai n

    u
    n

    N et B irt
    Top:P( 0)iC ;

    Je3u
    Populat i
    onfo"ows

    h R ate
    anS-
    J O! e r
    shaped
    tr
    ajectory,Wi
    t h
    t n
    州 ec t
    ionpoi ntat
    dod

    0
    (P/
    C).nf.

    Botom:P(
    t 0)>,C,
    thepopulat
    ion
    rapi
    dl
    ydecays
    2

    backtothestabl
    e
    A)

    equi
    li
    bri
    um at
    !od

    P-C.
    e 3
    e 6

    Thetimeaxisi n
    u !^ヒ 3

    bothsimul
    ationsis
    thesame; ve｢l
    ical
    C J

    sca一
    esdiff
    er.
    uO!
    te Pd
    od

    increas
    lnglnthes t
    ateva ri
    able,t
    ha tis,aslongast heslopeoft henetra teofcha nge
    asaf unct
    ionoft hesta tevariableispos iive.
    t Ne gati
    vef eedbackdomi nateswhe n-
    everthenetrateofc ha ngei sdecreaslngl nthestatevariable,t
    hati
    s ,asl onga sthe
    slopeofthenetr at
    ei snega tive.
    Thisobser
    va ti
    onl ea dstoaf orma ldefni
    i t
    ionofloopdomi nanc
    ef orf i
    rst
    -order
    systems(Richardson1 986b,1 995) :
    0=
    ⇒Pos
    it
    ivefee
    dbackdomi
    nant
    0⇒ Nonetfee
    dbackfr
    omsta
    tetor
    ate (
    8-23)
    莞 (<
    :0⇒ Nega
    tivef
    eedbac
    kdominan
    t
    whe
    re

    s- 慧
    Deter
    mi ni
    ngWhe t
    heras ystemi sdomina t
    edbypos i
    ti
    veornega tivefeedbac
    kis
    moredificultinhigher
    10rdersystemsbe ca
    usealoopwi t
    htimede layscanhavea
    weakshort-
    r unbutlar
    gelong- une
    r fect.Kampma nn(1996)providessomeme hl
    t
    odstodeter
    mi nethedomi nantloopsi
    nmul il
    toop,hi
    ghor ders
    ys t
    ems ;seeal
    soN.
    Forr
    este
    r( 1982)andMo jtahedzadeh(1997).
    290 Pa
    r I To
    tI olsf
    orS
    yst
    emsTh
    ink
    ing

    8,
    5.2 Fi
    rst
    10r
    deFSysモ
    emst
    =annotOsci
    iE
    ate
    Asaf i na lobs e rvati
    on on t hege ne ralnonl inea rf i
    rst10rde rs ystem,c ons ide r
    whe theraf ir stl0rders ystem ca nos cillate.Se c t
    ion8. 4de mons tratedtha tt
    hel inea r
    first
    -orde rs ys te m ca nge nerateonl ye xpone ntialgr owth,deca y,ore qui l
    ibr i
    um.
    Nonl ine arf i
    r st-orde rsys t
    e msge nera temor ecompl exdyna mics ,butca nne ve ros -
    cill
    ate,noma tte rthef orm oft henonl inea rit
    y･ Tos e ewhy,c ons iderthephas epl ot
    forthef irsトor de rsystemi nFi gure8 11 9. Toos cillate,thes tateva ri
    abl emus tgo
    throughpe riodsofi ncrea sefollowe dbype r
    iodsofde cre
    as e.The refore, t
    hene tr a
    t e
    ofc hangei nt hepha sepl otmus tcros sf rom pos itivet one gativeva lues ,atleas tin
    onepl ace｡Howeve r,anypol ntWhe ret henetr a t
    eofc ha ngei sz eroi sa ne qui li
    b-
    rium oft hes tateva riable.Si ncef irst10rde rs ystemsha veonl yones tateva riabl e,
    eve r
    ys uc hpol nti sanequi li
    brium f ort hes ys te
    ma swe ll
    . Ever ye quili
    br ium pol nt
    ise i
    thers table( t
    hes l
    opeoft hene tr atec urvei nt hene ighbor hoodoft hee qui li
    b-
    rium isne gat i
    ve )oruns table(pos it
    ives l
    opei nthenei ghbor hoodoft hee quilibrium
    point).1
    3I faf irst10rders ys t
    emi sdi sturbe df rom a nuns tablee qui li
    brium, itwi lldi -
    ve r
    ge丘. om i t,e it
    he rwi thoutbot lnd( notos cilla
    ting)Orunt ilita pproa chesas tabl e
    equilibrium pol ntWhe r eallcha ngec eas es .The reforet oos cil
    late, asystem mus tbe
    atleas ts econdor der,mea nlngt her emus tbeaf eedba ckl oopwi tha tleas ttwo
    stocksi ni t.14

    8｡
    6 SuMMARY
    Thi scha pterexploredt hedyna mi csofs i
    mpl es ystems ,specifical
    ly,f i
    rst10rder
    linearsys t
    ems ISyS t
    emSWi t
    honl yones t
    ock( stat
    eva riable )andinwhi chther at
    es
    offlOwa reli
    nearfunctionsoft hesys te
    ms tate.Thes esimpl esyst
    e msa rethebui l
    d-
    1ngbl oc ksoutofwhi cha llmodel sa r
    ebui lta ndf r om whi chmor ecompl ex
    dyna micse me r
    ge･ Fi
    rst
    - or
    de rli
    nea rposit
    ivef e
    e dbacks ys temspr oduc epur ee xp O -

    nent i
    algr owth.Expone ntialgrowt hhast her ema rkablepr opert
    yt hatt hes t
    a teof
    thes ystem doubl esinaf ixedpe riodoft ime,noma t
    te rhow l argei tis.The
    doubl i
    ngt lmeC haract
    erizesthes t
    r engthofthepos i
    tivel oop.Si mi l
    arly,fi
    rst-order
    linearnega ti
    vefeedba c
    ks ys t
    emsgene rat
    eexpone ntialde ca ytoagoa l･Thedeca y
    rateischa ract
    eri
    zedbyt heha l
    fll
    ife,thetimer equiredf ort hegapbe t
    we enthes ta
    te
    oft hesys t
    ema ndt hegoa ltobec uti nha l
    f.Thec haptera lsointroduce dthephas e

    1
    3Ifthenetrat
    eo fchangeiszerooverafinit
    eint
    erval
    insta
    tespac e
    ,thesep ol
    n t
    Shaveneut
    ral
    st
    aDlll
    ty;ad i
    st
    url
    DanCeLWith
    inthatrange)Cause
    sneit
    heraresI
    L
    Oral
    L
    iveilOi
    tdi
    v erg
    erltCh
    angeill
    tl
    r.
    e
    netrat
    e,JustaSaballplace
    dany whereonaflatsurf
    acew
    il l
    rema i
    na tt
    ha t
    po n
    l t
    .
    1
    4Technical
    ly,f
    irst
    -orde
    rsystemsc a
    nn o
    toscil
    la
    teprovi
    dedti
    mei streat
    edc ontinu
    ously･
    Firs
    tl
    or
    de rsys
    temsi ndis
    c r
    eteti
    mec ano s
    cil
    late
    .Forexample,t
    heloglS
    ti
    cma p,t
    h efi
    rst-o
    rdernonl
    inear
    di
    scretet
    ime禦a pX(t+1)-k x(
    t)(1IX( t
    )),Wher
    e0≦k≦4a ndO<x (
    0) <1 , n
    otonlyosci
    l-
    l
    atesforcerta
    inValuesofk,but gener
    ate
    sp er
    ioddoubl
    ingandch a
    osa swe l
    l.Ho wever,
    hes
    t ta
    te-
    ment t
    hato s
    cil
    lat
    ionrequlr
    eSaf e
    e d
    b ac
    kl o
    opwi t
    hatleas
    ttwostocksissti
    llvalid:i
    nd i
    scre
    teti
    me
    mode l
    s,t
    h eti
    mes t
    epb etweenite
    rati
    onsc o
    nsti
    tut
    esa
    n irr
    educi
    bletmed
    l el
    ayl nev e
    ryfeedba
    ck
    l
    oop. Everytl
    mel agco nt
    ai
    nsas t
    o c
    kwh ichaccumu
    la t
    est
    heinlo
    f wt othedelaylessit
    so u
    tfl
    ow.
    Everyd i
    scret
    ed y
    nami csyst
    emc anb econver
    tedint
    oane qu
    lVal
    e n
    tc ont
    inuoustimes ys
    temb y
    i
    ntr
    o duci
    n galagequ a
    l t
    othetimes t
    epateveI
    YS ta
    teVari
    abl
    e,incr
    ea s
    lngtheo rderoft
    hes ys
    tem
    (s
    ee Low1 980f o
    ra nexamp l
    e).
    Ch
    apt
    er8 Cl
    osi
    ngt
    heLo
    op:
    Dyn
    ami
    cso
    fSi
    mpl
    eSt
    ru
    ctur
    es 291

    pl ot
    ,aus e f
    lt
    u ooltoanalyz ethedyna mi csofs ystemsgr aphica l
    ly,withoutt heus e
    ofca lc ulus.
    Ana lys I
    SOft hepha sepl otsf orf irs
    t10rders yst
    emss howst ha tins ys t
    emswi th
    mor et ha nonef eedbackloo p, t
    hedyna mi csde pendonwhi chl oopi sdomi nant.In
    linears ys tems ,t
    hedomi na nc eoft hedi fferentloopsc anne verc hange. Thusl i
    near
    first
    10r ders ystemsc anonlye xhi bitt hreebe haviors:expone ntialgrowt h(whe nthe
    pos i
    tivel oopsdo mi nat
    e),e xpone ntia lde c
    a y(whe nthene gati
    vel oopsdomi nate)
    ,
    ande quilibrium( whenthel oo pse xa ctlyofs e
    tonea nothe r)
    . Nonl i
    nea rfir
    s t
    -order
    sys t
    emsca ne xhibitSIS
    hape dgr owt hbe caus ethedomi nantf eedbackl oopss hiftas
    thes ys te
    me vol v
    es .Asthepo pul ationa ppr oachesitscarrylngC apa c
    ityt hepos it
    ive
    loopsdr ivinggr owt hweake na ndt hene gativeloopsr est
    rainlngg rowths t
    rengthen,
    unt i
    lt hes ystemi sdomi na tedbyne ga t
    ivef eedback,a ndt hepopul ati
    ont hen
    smoo thlya ppr oachesas t
    abl ee qui libriuma tthec a
    rrylngC apa Cl
    ty.
    §-
    Sil
    i
    a盲準尋i
    I
    -
    ;ぞ串W睦;互声量
    dem量
    gs千
    言i
    -1即 ち主音
    享和 I
    i7
    5主
    熟呈§
    畳紙 員n封 もe き

    Gr owもhi)fNew喜〉
    ro戚ue
    息S

    Ev
    eZTt
    hin
    gthatr
    ise
    smus
    tconv
    erge
    .
    -F
    lan
    ner
    yO'
    Con
    nor

    Ass eeninc ha pter8,pos it


    ivef eedba ckc re
    atesexpo nentialg r
    owth.Butnor eal
    q uantit
    yC ang rowf oreve r. Eve rys ystemi nit
    ial
    lydo minatedbypos i
    tivef eed bac ks
    eve ntuall
    ya ppr oachest hec arrylngC a paCl
    tyOfi t
    se nvironme nt.Ast hel imi tst o
    g rowtha pproa ch,ther
    ei sano nlineartransit
    ionfromdo mi na ncebypos it
    ivef e ed-
    ba ckt odo mina ncebyne gativef ee
    dba c
    k.Unde rcertai
    nc ond i
    ti
    ons ,ther esul tis
    S- shapedg r
    o wt h,wher et heg rowl ngpo pulat
    ionsmoo thlyapp roachese quilibrium.
    Thi schapters howsho wS- shape dg rowt hcanbemode led,it
    w happlicationst othe
    di f
    fusiono fin novations ,thes pr eado finfect
    iousdiseasesa .
    -.dcomput erVi r
    us es,
    theg rowtho ft hema r
    ke tf orne wpr od ucts,ando t
    hers･Ava rietyofimpo rtanta nd
    wi delyus edmo delso fS- Sha pe dgr owt hareintroduce da nda nalyz ed,theus e
    oft he s
    emod e lsforf ore c ast
    lngi sdi scusse
    d,a nde xtensionst othemode lsa re
    pr ese
    nt e
    d･Ca sese xami ne di nc ludet hes prea
    do fma dcowd i
    seasea ndHI Va nd
    theg rowtho ft hema rke tsf orhi g h-t
    ec hproductssucha sco mput er
    sa ndc o nsume r
    se rvi
    cessuc ha scablet ele vision.

    295
    2
    96 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    9.
    1 MoDEuNG S-
    SHAPEDGROWTH
    Thenonl i
    ne a
    rpopul at
    ionmode lde velo pedi nchapter8i sqult ege neral･ Thepo p-
    ulati
    oni nthemode lc anbea nyqua ntitythatg rowsi nafixedenvi ronme nt,forex-
    ampl e,thenumbe rofa do ptersofa ni nnova tion, t
    henumbe rofpe oplei nfe c
    tedby
    adi sease,t
    hef ract
    ionofa nygr oupa dheringt oa nideaorpur cha singapr oduc t
    ,
    ands oon. Ifthepopul a ti
    oni sdrive nbypos itivefeedbackwhe ni tiss ma llrelat
    ive
    toitslimits,the nther esult
    ingbe ha viorwi llbeSI S
    hapedgr owt h,pr ovide dthere
    arenos ignifi
    c antde l
    aysi nthene gativef eedba cksthatconstr
    ai nthepo pul ati
    on. I
    f
    therea r
    ede laysi nther espons eoft hepo pul ati
    ont othea ppr
    oa c
    hi ngc ar ryl
    ngC a-
    paclty,t
    hebe ha viorwi llbeS- Sha pedgr owthwi t
    hove rs
    hoota ndos c i
    llation;ifthe
    carrylngCa pac i
    tyl Scons ume dbyt hegr owl ngPOPul a
    tion,thebe havio rwi l
    lbe
    overshoota ndc ol
    lapse( Seec hapt e
    r4) .Conve r
    sely,whe neveryo uo bse rveas ys-
    temt hatha se xperience dS- shape dg rowt h,youknowt ha tiniti
    a l
    lyt hebe havior
    wa sdomi na t
    edbypos iti
    vef e e
    d bac kl oops ,buta sthes yste
    m gr ew,t he rewa sa
    nonlinearshifttodomi nanc ebyne ga tivefee dback.

    9.
    i.1 Logl
    -
    Stt
    l
    cGr
    owt
    h
    Asi llus t
    ratedint henonl inearpopul a
    t i
    ongr owt he xa mpl ei ncha pter8,t hene t
    fractiona lgrowthr ateoft hepopul ationPmus tf a
    llf rom i tsiniti
    a lval
    ue,pa ss
    throughz erowhe nthepopul ati
    one qualst hec arryl
    ngC apa cit
    yC, andbe c
    omene g-
    ati
    vewhe nP>C.Cons equenty
    l,thepha sepl otoft hene tbir
    thr atemustha vea
    shaper oughlyl i
    kea ni nvertedbowl :Ne tbirthsa rez erowhe nt hepo pulationi s
    zero, ri
    s ewi t
    hincreaslngpo pulat
    ionupt oama ximu m, fa lltozeroa ttheca rryl
    ng
    capac lt
    y ,andc ont
    inuet odr op,becomngl nC r
    e aSl
    nglyne gati
    ve,whe npopul ati
    on
    excee dst hecarryl
    ngC aPaCit
    y･Howe ver,the r
    ea rea ni nfinitenumbe roffractional
    netbir t
    hr atecurves,andhe ncepha seplot s,sat
    isfyingt hes egeneralc onst
    raints･An
    impor tants pec
    ialc a
    seofSI S
    hapedgr owt hi sk
    n owna slogi sti
    cgrowt h,orVe rhulst
    growt h,a f
    terFr an90isVe r
    hulstwhof irstpubl ishedt hemode li n1 838( see
    Richa rdson1 991 )
    .
    Thel oglS
    ticgrowthmode lpositstha tthene tfractiona lpopulationgrowt hrate
    isa( downwa rds l
    oping)line a
    rfunctionoft hepopul a
    tion･ Thatis,
    Ne
    tBi
    rt
    hRa
    te-g(
    P p-g
    ,C) U IP/
    C)P (
    911
    )

    whereg( P,C),t
    hef ra
    ctionalgrowt
    hr ate
    ,isafuncti
    onoft hepo pulat
    ionandcar
    ry-
    i
    ngc apa ci
    tyandg*i sthema xi
    mumf r
    acti
    onalgrowth(thef ract
    ionalgr
    owthrate
    whent hepopul at
    ionisve rys mal
    l)･Thelogi
    sticmode lc onformstotherequi
    re-
    mentsf orSIShapedgr owth:thefract
    ionalne
    tgr owthratei sposit
    iveforP<C,
    zer
    owhe nP-C,a ndne gati
    veforP>C･ TheloglSti
    cmode lhassomea ddi
    ti
    onal
    char
    acte r
    ist
    ics.
    Re arr
    anginge quat
    ion(9-1)gi
    ves
    Ne
    tBi
    rt
    hRa
    te-g決
    (1- P/
    C)p-g帯
    p-gt
    p2/
    i
    ' C 9-
    ( 2
    )
    Thef i
    rstt
    erm g*pisastandar
    dfir
    st-
    orderl
    inea
    rpos i
    tivefe
    edbackpr oces
    s;the
    secondterm,一g* C,i
    p2/ snonli
    nearinthepopula
    tiona ndrepr
    es e
    ntsthee ver
    -
    St
    rongernegat
    ivefeedba
    ckc a
    usedbytheapproa
    choft hepopula
    tiontoitscarr
    y-
    l
    ngC apaCl
    ty･
    Ch
    apt
    er9S
    ISh
    aedGr
    p owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    ic
    m s
    ,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    fus
    fio
    n,a
    ndt
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    NewP
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    7

    Whe ndoesthenetgrowthr
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    Sti
    cmode lthe
    ne
    ze
    r
    pe
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    a
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    r
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    at
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    SP 0a
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    qua

    tbi
    t
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    ur
    ni
    ca
    nve
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    e
    eapa
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    ra
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    awhi
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    ss
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    i
    ss
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    ca
    st
    r
    hrough
    oundi t
    s

    f-C/
    P.
    n 2 (
    9-3
    )
    whe rePinfistheva lueofpopul at
    ionwhe r
    et hene tgrowt hrateisatama ximuma nd
    t
    he r
    e for
    et heinfle ct
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    ectoryOfthepopul at
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    f
    ra c
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    medoma inbe havi
    orf orthelogl St
    icmode l
    .
    Thel ogl St
    icmode lisi mportantfors everalrea sons･Fi r
    st,ma nyS- Shaped
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    icmode l,despitethere-
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    hel oglSti
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    me dintoaf ormtha tisl
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    esti
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    ont echnique,or dinaryle as
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    s
    e ct
    ion9. 3.1).

    9.
    1u2 AnaF
    yti
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    stk Equat
    ion
    Thoughitisnonli
    ne a
    r,thelogi
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    cmodels
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    9-)c
    1 a
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    ly.Fi
    rstsepara
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    abl
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    the
    nint
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    (
    9-4)

    J薄 -恒
    Re
    arr
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    -ha
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    I詰 I
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    n(P)-1
    n(C-P)-gx
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    fini
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    nt-0,
    1
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    n(P(
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    .
    Ta
    kinge
    xpone
    nti
    alsyi
    elds
    P P(
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    xp(
    g*t
    )
    (
    9-8)
    (
    C-p) C-p( o)
    whi
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    P
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    I･ [
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    Themaxi
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    2
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    alt
    GURE 9
    FI -
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    2tJ Lf
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    tJU
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    J
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    l
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    届 uOE
    popul at iongr ows.

    Mi ddle: Thephase

    tOeJlj
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    par abol a,s ymmeト Popul
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    Carr
    ylngCapaci
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    ricabout( P/C)- (dimensi
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    0.5.Bot tom:Popu-
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    S- shapedcuⅣe
    wi thinflec ti
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    ratef ollowsabeH -
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    Shapedcur vewi th
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    D
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    Wi ththei nf一
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    Ne
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    Val
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    P(
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    911
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    xp卜 g H( t - h)]

    whereh ist he t
    ime atwhi chthe popula
    tion rea
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    rylng Ca-
    paci
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    ti
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    ne qua
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    g*.Equati
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    9)and(9-10)∬et wofor
    msoft hea
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    icgr
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    9-i).
    Ch
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    -Sh
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    s,I
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    NewP
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    s299

    9.
    1.3 0t
    herCommonGr
    owt
    hMode一
    s
    Duet oitssi
    mplici
    tya ndanalyt
    ictra
    cta
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    ity,t
    heloglS
    ti
    cmode li
    sthemos twidely
    usedmode lofS- shapedgr owth.Howe ver,ther
    ea rema nyothe rmode lsof
    S-shapedgrowth.The semode l
    srela
    xtherest
    rict
    iveassumpti
    onthatthefract
    ional
    growthra t
    edecl
    inesl i
    near
    lyinthepopula
    tion.Thesegrowthcur
    vesa reingener a
    l
    notsymme t
    ri
    c.
    TheRi char
    dsc urvei sonec ommonl y usedmode l(Richards 1959).I n
    Richards'modelthef rac
    tionalgrowt
    hr a
    teoft hepopulaioni
    t snonl i
    nearint he
    populati
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    ･e
    tBi
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    te-芸 -諾 ㌔ [
    1- (
    E)mー1
    ] (
    9111
    )

    Whenm -2, th
    eRi char
    dsmode lreduc
    est othelogl
    Sti
    c.Otherval
    uesofmcaus
    e
    t
    hefrac
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    lg r
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    linea
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    lgrowthrateasaf uncti
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    uesofm) .
    Thes
    olu -

    t
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    P(
    t)-C(
    1Ik
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    -gS
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    1/
    (1
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    911
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    whe r
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    alpopul
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    As pecia
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    Richardsmode li
    nthelimitwhenm - 1.Notetha
    twhileequat
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    sun-
    defi
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    (
    Xa- 1
    )
    i
    1l
    ll -1
    m(Ⅹ) (
    9-1
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    a
    →O a

    s
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    urvei
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    Venby

    P(
    t)-Ce
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    -ke
    xp(
    -gx
    t)
    ). (
    911
    4)

    I
    ntheGompe r
    tzmode l
    ,thefr
    a c
    tionalgr
    owthr
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    inesli
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    yinthel oga-
    r
    it
    hm oft
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    mum gr
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    C -0. 368.
    Anot
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    sba
    sedont
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    bulldis
    tr
    ibution:

    P(
    t)- C(
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    xp卜 (
    Vb)
    a]) (
    9-1
    5)

    whe rea, b>0a r


    ek nowna sthes hapeands c al
    eparameter
    s,r
    es pect
    ivel
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    a-2i sknowna stheRa yleighdi st
    ri
    bution･
    TheRi cha r
    dsa ndWe ibullmode l
    spr ovidethemode lerwi t
    ha na
    lyt ical
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    ractabl egrowt hfunc t
    ionst hatca nreprese ntava ri
    etyofnonlinear血.a
    cti
    ona lnet
    i
    nc reaser at
    es.Howe ver,thereisnogua ra nte ethatt
    hedatawillconfom tot heas-
    s
    umpt 10nSOfa nyo fthea nalyticgrowthmode l
    s.Fort
    unat
    ely,withcompute rsi
    mul
    l
    a t
    ion,youa ren otrestri
    ctedt ous ethel ogl Sti
    c,Gompe r
    tz,Richards,Weibull,or
    anyot he ranalyt
    icmode l.Youc anspecifya nynonlinea
    rrelat
    ionshipforthefrac-
    t
    iona lbirthandde at
    hr atess upportedbyt heda t
    aandthensimul at
    ethemode lto
    explorei tsbehaviorove rtime.
    300 P
    art
    III Th
    eDy
    nami
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    9.
    l.4 Test
    ingt
    heLogi
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    cN!
    odel
    Toi llust
    rat
    et heus eoft helogl S
    ticmode l,considerthee xa
    mpl esofS- shaped
    growt hinFigure419.Figure91 2showsther es
    ultoffit
    tingtheloglSti
    cmode ltothe
    dataf ortheg rowthofs unf
    lowe r
    s.Thebe stfitloglS
    ticmodelma t
    chesthes un-
    lowe
    f rda t
    area sona
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    ,thoughi tunderes
    tima t
    estheg rowthinthefi
    r s
    tmont h
    andove r
    esima
    t tesitla
    ter.The sediff
    T
    erencessugge s
    tabe t
    terfitmightbega lned
    throug huseofadi ferentgrowt hmode l,s
    ucha stheRi chardsmode l,
    inwhi chthe
    fract
    ionalg r
    owt hrateisnonlinearinthepo pulat
    ion･Se cion9･
    t 3･lprovidesaddi-
    tio
    na lexample s.

    9R
    2 DYNAMI
    CSOFDI
    SEASE:MoDEuNG EpI
    DEME
    CS
    Epi demi c
    sofi nfecti
    ousdi seas esof tene xhibitSISha pedgr owt h･ Thec umul ati
    ve
    numbe rofc asesf oll
    owsa nSI Sha pedc urvewhi l
    et her ateatwhi chnewca s esOC I
    curr isesexpone nt i
    all
    y,pea ks,t he nf al
    lsast hee pidemi ce nds ･Figur
    e9- 3S hows
    thec ourseofa ne pidemi cofi nf
    lue nz aatanEngl i
    shboa rdi
    ngs choolin1 978･ The
    epide micbe ganwi t
    has inglei nfec t
    eds tudent( patientz ero) ･Theflus pr eads
    throughc ont actandbyi nha lationofvi r
    us- l
    adena e r
    os olsrelea sedwhe ni nf ect
    e d
    individualsc ougha nds ne eze. Thef lus prea dslowlya tfirst,buta smor ea ndmo re
    studentsf el
    li l
    la ndbe camei nf e ctious,thenumbe rthe yinfecte dgrewe xpone n-
    tiall
    y,Duet ot hec losequa rtersa ndt hushi ghr ateofe xpos ure,a boutt
    wo- thi rdsof
    thepopul atione ventua l
    lybe c
    a mei ll,andthee pide mice nde dduet ot
    hede pl eti
    on
    oft hepoolofs usceptiblepe opl e. Figure9- 3a l
    sos howst hec ourseofa ne pide mi c
    ofpl agueinBomba yin1 905-6. Thebe ha viorisq ulteSimi l
    a r
    ,de spi
    tet hedi fe
    -r
    enc esint i
    mefra me,mor tal
    ity,a ndot hera spectsoft hes ituation.Thepa thoge n
    doe snotha vet obeabi ologica la gent-e pide micso fc omput ervi r
    usesfol lows i
    m-
    ilardyna mics .

    9.
    2.1 AS血 pヨ
    eM◎deを⑳曹E
    m甘ee竜
    岳ousDi
    sease
    Figur
    e914Showsasi
    mplemode lofinf
    ect
    iousdis
    e a
    se.Thetot
    lpo
    a pulat
    ionofthe
    communltyOrr
    egi
    onrepre
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    edinthemode li
    sdiide
    v dint
    otwoc a
    tegor
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    hose
    sus
    c e
    pti
    bletot
    hedis
    ease,S,andthosewhoa reinfec
    tious
    ,I(forthi
    sreasonthe

    FtGURE9-2
    Thegrowthof
    sunfl
    ower
    sand
    thebestf
    i
    t
    l
    ogist
    icmodel

    0 14 28 42
    Da
    ys
    56 70 84
    Ch
    apt
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    dGr
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    h:Ep
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    m s
    ,In
    nov
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    fus
    ion,
    andt
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    modelisknownastheSImodel)
    .Aspeopleareinf
    ect
    edtheymovef r
    om thes
    us -

    cept
    iblecat
    egoryt
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    ect
    iouscat y.TheS
    egor Imodelinvokesanumberof
    si
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    FIGURE9･ 3
    Dynamicsofepl-
    demicdisease
    T op:I nfl
    uenza
    epidemi catan
    Engl ishboar di
    ng
    school ,January
    22-Febr uary3,
    1978.Thedat a
    showt henumber
    ofst udent s
    conf i
    nedt obedf or 1
    /24 1/
    26 1/
    28 1/
    30 2/1 2/
    3

    infl
    uenzaatany
    time( t hestockof
    ( aき P一

    sympt omat ic
    7
    5
    0
    ︼
    苛

    individual s)
    .
    Soul
    ℃e:Br
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    I
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    '
    CaI
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    Jour ,
    l4March1978,
    0
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    d) st

    p
    .58
    7･
    Bottom:Epi demi c
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    2
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    0
    a凸

    ofp一ague,Bom -

    bay,Indi a190516r
    Datashowt he
    deathr ate
    0 5 10 15 20 25 30
    (deaths/week) . Week
    s
    Soure:K
    c ermackand
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    c k(i927,
    p71 4)
    lF orf
    urth
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    sI
    cuss
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    hc ase
    s,
    seeMu r
    ray(1993).

    GURE9-
    FI 4
    St
    ruct
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    si
    mplemodelof
    anepi
    demic
    B州1 S,deat hs,
    andmi grationare
    omitt
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    t
    otalpopul ati
    onis
    aconstant ,and
    peop一eremai n
    i
    nfecti
    ous
    i
    ndefini
    tely.
    302 P
    art
    HIT
    heDy
    nami
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    fGr
    owt
    h

    births,dea t
    hs,a ndmi grat
    iona reIgno red.Second,onc epe opleareinfecte
    d, they
    rema ininfecti
    o usi ndefinit
    ely,thatis,themo delappliestoc hronicinfec
    tions,not
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    lue nzao rpl a
    g ue.
    TheSImo de lcontainstwol oops, theposit
    iveCo nt
    agionl oopa ndthene gat
    ive
    De pletionloop. Infectiousdis e
    a sesspr ea
    da sthosewhoa reinfectio
    usc omei nto
    con tactwithandpa ssthedise asetothos ewhoa r
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    c e
    ptible,increasl
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    llfurt
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    ptibles(thene gativeloop).
    Thei nfT
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    eI Rwhi l
    ethes us-
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    a tionSi sde creasedbyi t:
    Ⅰ -I
    NTEGRAL(
    IR,Io) (
    9-1
    6)
    S-I
    NTEGRAL(
    -IR,
    N-Io) (
    911
    7)
    whe reNi st het otalpopul atio汀int hec ommunl tyandI ｡i stheinitia lnumbe ro f
    inf
    ec ti
    ouspe o
    pl e(as ma l
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    et he
    inf
    ec t
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    iblepe op l
    ebe comei nfect
    e d.
    Peopl ei nthec ommuni tyinterac tatac ert
    ainr a
    te(theCont actRa t
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    suredinpe o plec onta ct
    edpe rpe rsonpe rtimepe r
    iod,or1 /timepe riod)･ Thust he
    suscepti
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    mepe riod.Someoft hesee n
    -

    countersa rewi thinf e ct


    iouspeo ple.Ifinf ecti
    ouspe opleinteractatthes a
    mer at
    ea s
    susceptiblepe ople( theya renotqua rantine dorc onfi
    nedt obe d),the nthepr oba-
    bil
    it
    yt ha ta nyr ando ml ys e
    lectede nc oun t
    e risane ncounterwi tha ni nfectio
    usi n-
    divi
    d ualisI /N. Note verye ncounterwi t
    ha ninfecti
    ouspe rso nres
    ultsi ni nfec
    tion.
    Thei nfectivlty,i,oft hediseaseist hepr obabili
    tythatape rsonbe come sinfected
    aft
    erc ont actwi tha ni nfecti
    ouspe r son.Thei nf e
    ctionra t
    ei sthere foret hetotal
    numbe ro fe ncount ersScmul ti
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    iswitha ni nfectiousi nd i
    vidualI/Nmu ltipliedbyt hepr obabi l
    it
    ytha ta ne ncounter
    witha ninfe ctiouspe rsonresult
    si nin fection:
    I
    R-(
    ci
    S)(
    Ⅰ/
    N) (
    9-1
    8)
    Thedyna
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    erminedbyno
    tlngt
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    tho
    utbi
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    hs,de
    aths
    ,orml
    gra-

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    ati
    onisfi
    xed:
    S+Ⅰ-N (
    9-1
    9)
    Thoughthesys
    temcont
    ainstwos
    toc
    ks,i
    tisac
    tual
    lyafir
    st-
    orders
    yst
    embec
    ause
    oneofthest
    ocksisc
    omplete
    lyde
    ter
    minedbytheothe
    r･Subst
    it
    utl
    ngN IIforS
    i
    n( 9-
    18)yie
    lds
    I
    R-(
    C)(
    i)
    I(1- Ⅰ
    /
    N) (
    9-20)

    Equa t
    ion(9-20)i sident
    icaltoequatio
    n( 9-1),thene tbir
    thrateinthel ogi
    stic
    mo del.Anepidemi c,i
    nthismod el
    , g
    rowse xactl
    ylikeapo pulat
    ioninaf i
    xede n-
    vir
    o nment.Thec arr
    ylngCapaClt
    yisthetotalpopulati
    on,N. I
    ntheSImo del
    , o
    nc e
    aninfecti
    ousindividuala
    rrive
    sint hecommunl ty,everySusce
    ptibl
    epe r
    sone ven-
    tua
    llybe c
    ome sinfecte
    d,Withtheinfect
    ionratefoll
    owlngabe ll
    -shapedcurveand
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    ISh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    ic
    m s
    ,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    fus
    io
    n,a
    ndt
    heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s30
    3

    thetotalinfec t
    edpo pulati
    onf ollowl ngt hec lassi
    cSI Sha pedpa t
    ternofthel oglSt
    ic
    curve( Figure9- 1).Thehi ghe rt hec ontac trateorthegr eatertheinfect
    ivity,the
    fast
    erthee pi demicprog res
    se s.
    TheSImo delcapturesthemos tf
    unda me nt
    alfeatureofi nfecti
    ousdiseases :
    the
    diseasesprea dsthroughc onta ctbe twe eni nfectedands uscepti
    bleindi
    vidua ls.I
    tis
    theinteractionoft heset wogr oupst hatc reat
    e sthepos i
    ti
    vea ndnegati
    vel oops
    andt henonl inearl
    tyreSPOnS ible氏) rt hes hiftinloopdomi na nceasthesusc epti
    ble
    popul a
    tioni sd eplet
    ed.Thenonl i
    ne a rl
    tya risesbe c
    a usethet wopopul ationsa re
    multipli
    e dtoge t
    herine quation( 911 8) ;i
    tta kesboth as uscept
    iblea ndaninfe ct
    ious
    persont ogene rat
    eane wc ase･

    9.
    2.2 Mode!
    ingAcut
    ehf
    ect
    ion:TheS旧 Mode!
    Whi letheSImode lc apt ur est heba si
    cpr oc e ssofi nf ec tion, itc ont ainsma nys i m-
    plifyinga ndr estric tivea s sumpt l
    OnS .
    Themode ldoesnotr epr esentbi rths,de aths ,
    orml gration. Thepopul ationi sa s sume dt obehomoge ne ous :a l
    lme mbe rsoft he
    communi tya rea ssume dt oi nt erac tatt hes amea ve rager ate( the rea renos ubc ul -
    tureso rg roupst ha tr ema ini sola t
    edf r
    omt heot hersi nt hec ommunl t
    yOrWhos ebe -
    ha viori sdi f ferentf rom ot he rs )
    .Thedi se asedoesnota lterpe opl e'slifestyles :
    infec t
    ivesa r ea ss ume dt oi nt era cta tthes amea vera ger atea ss us ceptibles.The r ei s
    nopos sibilityo fr ec ove ry,quar antine, ori mmuni z ation.
    Al lthes ea ss umpt l OnSC anber e l
    axe d. Thes us cept iblepopul a t
    ionc a
    nbedi s-
    agg regatedi ntos eve raldi stinc tsubpopul ations ,Ore ve nr epres ente da sdis t
    inc tin-
    dividua ls,e ac hwi thas pe cificr ateofc ont actwi t
    hot he rs .Ana dditiona lstockc an
    bea ddedt or epr es entqua ra nt i
    ne dorva c cina tedi ndi vid ua ls･Bi rtha ndde athr ate s
    canbea dde d. Ra ndom e ve nt sc anbea dde dt os i
    mul a tet hec hanc ena t
    ureofc on-
    tactsbe twe e ns us c ept iblesa ndi nf ectives .
    Themos tr es trictivea ndunr ea li
    sticf ea tureoft hel ogl Sticmode la sappl iedt o
    epide mic si st hea s sumpt iont ha tthedi se asei sc hr oni c,Wi tha ff
    e ctedi ndividua ls
    rema i
    ningi nf ectiousi nde fi nitely.Cons eque ntly,onc ee ve nas l
    ngl ei nfectiousi-n
    divid ualarri ve sint hec ommuni t
    y, eve r
    yS us ce pti
    bl ee ve ntua llybe comesi nf ecte d.
    Whi lethea s sumpt ionofc hr oni ci nfec tioni sr easona blef ors omedi seases( e. g.,
    he r
    pe ssimpl ex) , ma nyi nf ec ti
    ousdi seasespr oduc eape riodofa cutei nfectiousnes s
    andi ll
    nes s,f ollowe de ithe rbyr ec ove r
    ya ndt hede ve lopme ntofi mmuni tyOrby
    de at
    h.Mos te pide mi cse ndbe forea llthes us ceptibl esbe c omei nfec t
    edbe caus e
    pe opler ecove rf as tert ha nne wc a sesa rise.Ke rma c ka ndMcKe ndr ick( 1927)de -
    ve l
    o pedamod ela ppl icabl et os uc ha c utedi s
    e ases .Themode lc ontainst hr e e
    stocks :TheSus ce ptibl epo pul atiorl,S, theI r
    .fe ct
    io-uspopui a t
    ior .
    ,I ,andt heRe c ov-
    eredpopul ation,良( Fi gur e9- 5) .Longknowna st heSI Rmode l,theKe rma c k-
    Mc Ke ndrickf o rmul a tioni swi delyus edi ne pide mi ol ogy.Thos ec ontrac t
    lngt he
    disea sebe co mei nf e ctiousf orac erta i
    npe riodoft imebutt he nr ecove randde ve lop
    per ma nenti mmuni ty. Thea ssumpt lOnt ha tpe opl er e cove rc rea t
    esonea ddi t
    iona l
    feedba ck-t hene ga tiveRe cove r
    yl oop.Thegr e atert henumbe rofi nfe ct
    ious
    304 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    GURE9-
    FI 5 St
    ruc
    tur
    eoft
    heSI
    Repi
    demi
    cmodel
    Peopl
    eremai
    nin
    fec
    ti
    ous(
    andsi
    ck)f
    oral
    i
    mit
    edt
    ime,
    thenr
    ecoveranddevel
    opi
    mmuni
    t
    y･

    indi
    viduals
    ,thegr ea
    tert
    her ecove ryrat
    eandthes mallerthenumbe rofinfect
    ious
    peoplere
    ma inlng･Allot
    heras sumpt l
    OnSOftheorlgl
    na lSImode la r
    eret
    ained･2
    Thes uscepti
    blepopulat
    ion, asintheSImode l
    ,isreduc e
    dbyt heinfe
    ctionra t
    e.
    Theinfect
    iouspo pul
    ati
    onnowa c
    c umulat
    est
    hei nf
    e c
    tionr at
    eles
    st here
    cove r
    yr ate
    RRa ndther ecovere
    dpo pula
    tion良a ccumulat
    esthere coveryra
    te:
    S-I
    NTEGRAL(
    -IR,
    N-ⅠO- Ro
    )
    Ⅰ-I
    NTEGRAL(
    IR-RR,Io)
    良 -I
    NTEGRAL(
    RR,
    Ro)

    Theinit
    ialsus c
    e pt
    iblepo pul
    ationisthetotalpopulat
    ionl es
    sthei
    nit
    ialnumberof
    inf
    ecti
    vesa nda nyiniti
    allyrecovereda ndimmunei ndividual
    s.
    There coveryr at
    ec anbemode l
    e dseveralways･I
    nt heSIRmodel,theave
    rage
    durat
    ionofi nfecti
    vit
    y,d, isas
    sume dt obec onst
    antandt herec
    ove
    ryprocessi
    sas -

    sumedtof ollowaf irst


    -orderne ga
    tivefeedbackprocess:
    RR-Ⅰ
    /d. (
    9-2
    4)

    Theavera
    gedurat
    ionofi
    nfe
    cti
    vit
    y,d,r
    epr
    ese
    ntst
    heaver
    agelengt
    hoft
    imepe
    ople
    ar
    einfe
    ctious
    .Theass
    umpti
    onthatt
    herec
    overyr
    atei
    safi
    rst
    10rde
    rpr
    oces
    smeans

    2I
    ntheS IRmo de
    ltherec
    overe
    dp opula
    ti
    onisoft
    ent eme
    r d"Removals
    "andt
    here c
    ov e
    ryra
    teis
    t
    h encaii
    edtheremovaira
    te.
    Ma nyap pi
    lC
    ati
    onsofthemo del
    int
    erp
    rett
    heremoval
    rat
    ea sth
    esum
    oft
    ho sere
    c ove
    ri
    ngfromthediseas
    ea ndth
    osewh odiefro
    mi t
    ･However
    ,thi
    sin
    ter
    pret
    atio
    nisin
    -
    corre
    ct,s
    incethos
    ewh odiere
    d u
    cethetota
    lpopulat
    ion,whil
    einth
    eS I
    Rmo de
    lthet
    o t
    alpopul
    at
    ion
    i
    sc onst
    ant.Theaggr
    egati
    onofdeat
    h sandre
    coveri
    esintoasi
    nglefl
    owofremoval
    sandas l
    nle
    g
    s
    to c
    ko fcumu l
    at
    ivere
    mo vlsi
    a susual
    lyJus
    ti
    fi
    edb yarguln
    gthatmort
    al
    it
    ylSOf
    tenasmallfr
    act
    ion
    ofthetot
    alp o
    pulat
    io
    n.Evenwh ent
    hi si
    stue
    r ,it
    isbadmo deli
    ngpra
    cti
    cetoag
    grega
    tetheli
    vln
    g
    wiht
    t hedead,si
    ncet
    heirbeha
    viorisoft
    enquit
    ediferent.
    Inthi
    scas
    e,ho
    t sewhorecovercon
    ti
    nue

    t
    oi nt
    eractwit
    htheremaini
    ngSusce
    p t
    ibl
    eandinf
    ec t
    i
    o uspopul
    at
    ions
    ,whil
    ethos
    ewh odieusua
    ll
    y
    don ot
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    ISh
    aedGr
    p owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    mis
    c,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    fus
    io
    n,a
    ndt
    heGr
    owt
    hofNe
    wPr
    odu
    cts305

    peopl
    edonotallrecoveraft
    erexactl
    ythesametime,butra
    the
    raglVe
    npo pulat
    ion
    ofinf
    ect
    iousin
    dividualswilldec
    lineexponent
    ial
    ly,wit
    hsomepeopl
    ereco ve
    rlng
    ra
    pidl
    yandothersmor eslowly･
    3Thei nf
    ecti
    onrat
    ei sf
    ormula
    tede
    xactl
    ya sinthe
    SImodelinequat
    ion( 9-1
    8).

    9
    .2.
    3 Mo
    de=∋
    eha
    vior
    :Th
    eTi
    ppi
    ngP1
    3ht
    Unl iket hemod elsc ons ider edt husf ar,thes ystemi snow s ec ond- orde r( therea re
    threes t
    oc ks,buts inc ethe ys umt oac ons tant ,onlyt woa rei nde pe nde nt) .Ho we ve r
    ,

    itiss tillpos siblet oa na lyzei tsdyna mi csqua li


    tative ly.Fi rs t,unl iket heSImode l
    ,
    itisnowpos sibl ef ort hedi sea set odi eo utwi thoutc a uslnga ne pi demi c. Ifthei n-
    fe ct
    ionr a teisl es st hant her e cove ryr ate,t hei nfe ctiouspopul a tionwi llfa l
    l.Asi t
    fa l
    ls,s ot oowi llthei nfe c t
    ionr ate. Thei nf ectiouspo pul ationc ant he re foref allt o
    z erobe f or eeve r
    yonec ont r
    a ctst hedi seas e.
    Unde rwha tc irc ums tanc eswi llthei ntroduc t
    ionofa ni nf e ctiousi ndi vidua lt o
    thepopul ati
    onc aus ea ne pide mi c?I nt uitive ly,fora ne pi de mi ct ooc c ur ,t
    hei nf-ec
    ionr
    t a t
    emus te xce edt her e cove ryr a te;ifs o,thei nfe cti
    o uspopul a t
    ionwi llg row,
    le a
    di ngt os tillmor ene wc ases .If,whi l
    ee a chpe rsonwa si nfe ctioust he ypa sse d
    thedi seas eont oe xa ctl
    yonemor epe rson,t hent hes tockofi nf e cti
    ve swo uldr e-
    ma i
    nc ons ta
    nts inc et hei nf ectionr atewoul dbej us tof f setbyt her e cove r
    yr ate.
    The re for e,fora ne pi de mi ct ooc cur ,e achi nf ectivemus t
    ,ona ve rage, pa s
    st hedi- s
    e aseont omor etha noneot he rpe rsonpr lOrt Or eC OVe rlng.
    Theques tionofwhe thera ne pide mi cwi lloc curi sr ea llyaques ti
    ona bout
    whi chf ee dba ckl oo psa redo i na
    m ntwhe nt hedi s
    e as ea rive
    r si nac ommunl ty.I fthe
    pos itivec onta g l
    Onl oopdomi nat est her e cove rya ndde ple tionl oops ,t he nt hei n-
    troduc t
    ionofe ve nas lngl ei nf ectivei ndi vidua lt oac ommunl tyt rlgge r
    Sa ne Pl-
    de mi c. Thei nf ectionr atewi lle xc ee dt her ecove ryr ate,C aus l
    ngt hei nf ectionr ate
    togr ow s ti
    llf urthe r,unt ilde pl eionoft
    t hepoolofs us ce ptibl esf inallyl imi tst he
    epide mi c. If
    , howe ve r
    , thepos i
    tivel oo pl SWe ake rt hant hene ga tivel oo ps ,ane p1-
    de mi cwi l
    lnotoc c urs inc einf ec ti
    o uspe o pl ewi llr ecove rona ve ragef astert ha n
    ne wc ase sa rise .Thenumbe rofne wc a sesc reatedbyea chi nf ectivepr iort Ot he ir
    recove ry,a ndt here fo r
    et hes trengt hoft hedi fe r
    e ntl oops ,de pe ndsont hea ve rage
    dur ationofi nf ectiona ndt henumbe rofne wc a sesea chi nf e ctivege ner atespe r
    timepe ri od. Thehi ghe rt hec ont a ctra teo rt hegr e atert hei nf ec tivltyOft hedi sea se,
    thes tronge rthepos itivel oop. Like wi se ,thel arge rt hef r
    a ctionoft het otalpo pul a-
    tions us ce pt
    ibl et oi nf ec tion, thewe ake rt hede pletionl oop. Fi na lly,thel onge rt he

    3wh i
    letheas
    sumpti
    onthatr
    emoval
    sarefi
    rs
    t10r
    derisre
    aso
    nabl
    einthesi
    mp l
    eSIRmo de
    l,
    t
    hec o
    urseofmanydise
    asesi
    smo r
    ecomplexandthedela
    ybet
    weeninf
    ecti
    onandre
    mo vali
    soft
    en
    n
    ote x
    p o
    nenti
    l(
    a i
    fagrou
    pwe real
    li
    nfec
    tedatonce
    , t
    heremova
    lrat
    ewo u
    ldbesma
    llinit
    ia
    ll
    y,t
    hen
    b
    uildtoapeakbefor
    etap
    erin
    go f
    f)
    ･Chapt
    er11disc
    u s
    seshowdif
    fe
    rent
    tyeso
    p fde
    laysca
    nb emod-
    e
    ledindepthandsho
    wsh owmo de
    ler
    scansel
    ectro
    b us
    tfor
    mulat
    io
    nsfordel
    ayst
    oma tc
    hthedat
    a
    f
    ordif
    feren
    t di
    st
    ri
    but
    ions
    .
    3
    06 Pa
    rtH Th
    I eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    a ver agedur ationofi nf ection,t hewea ke rt henega tiver ecove ryl oopa ndt hemor e
    like lya ne pide mi cwi llbe･4
    Fora nygl Ve npopul ationofs usc ept ibles ,the reiss omec riti
    ca lcombi na tionof
    cont ac tf r
    e que nc y,inf e cti
    vl t
    y,a nddi seas edur ationJ us tgr eatenoughf ort hepos i-
    tivel oopt odomi na tet henega tivel oops .Tha tthr es hol di sknowna st het lPPl ng
    poi nt ･Be lowt het ippi ngPOl nt ,t
    hes ys temi ss t
    a bl e:ift hedi seas ei si nt roduc e di nto
    thecommuni ty,the rema ybeaf ewnewcas es, butona ve rage,peopl ewi llr ec ove r
    fas tert ha nne w ca sesa rege ne rated. Ne ga tivef ee dba c kdomi na tesa ndt hepopul -a
    tioni sr esi stanttoa ne pide mi c｡Pa stthet ippl ngpOl nt, thepos i
    tivel oopdomi na tes.
    Thes ys te
    mi suns tabl ea ndonceadi seas ea rri ves ,i tca ns prea dl ikewi ldf ire-
    tha ti s ,bypos itivef e edba ck- l imitedonl ybyt hede ple ti
    onoft hes us ce ptible
    popul a tion.
    Fi gur e9- 6s howsas imul a
    tionoft hemode lwhe r et hes ys te mi swe llpa s tthe
    tlppl ngpoi nt. Thepopul ationoft hecommunl tyl S1 0, 000a ndi nitiallye ve ryonei s
    sus c eptibl et ot hedi seas e. Att imez ero,as ingl ei nf ec tivei ndi vidua la rr i
    vesi nthe
    communi ty.Thea ve ra gedur ationofi nf ec t
    ioni s2da ys ,a ndi nf ecti vltyi s25%.
    Thea ver agecont actf reque nc yl SS ixpeopl epe rpe rsonpe rda y.Ea c hi nfe ctive
    the refor ege ne rate s1.5ne wca sespe rda ya nda na ve rageoft hr e enewca sesbe fore
    the yr e cove r.Thepos itivel oopt he ref or edomi na tesa ndt hee pide mi cqui ckly
    spr eads .Thei nf ec t
    ionr atepea ksa tmor et ha n2000peopl epe rda ya r oundda y
    ni ne,a nda titspea kmor et hanone- qua rte roft hepopul a t
    ioni sinf ec tious .Thes us -
    ce ptibl epopul a t
    ionf a llsra pidly,a ndi ti st hisde pl etionofpot ent i
    a lne wcas est ha t
    ha ltst hee pi de mi c.Byt het e nthda y,thenumbe rofs usce ptiblesr e mai nl ngl SS O
    low t ha tthenumbe rofnew cas esdecl ines .Thei nf e ctiouspopul ationpea ksa nd
    fll
    a saspe opl enowr e cove rf astertha nne wcas esa ris e･ Thes us cept ibl epopul ation
    cont i
    nuest of a l
    l,t hougha tas lowe ra nds lowe rr ate,unt ilt hee pi de mi ce nds .
    Inl es st han3wee ks,as i
    ngl ei nfectiousi ndivi dua lledt oama ssivee pide mi ci n-
    vol vingnea rlythee nt irec ommuni ty. Not et ha taf ewl uc kyi ndi vidua lsne ve rcon-
    tra ctthedi seas e.Unl iket hec hronici nf ec tionmode li nwhi cheve r yonee ve nt ual l
    y
    cont rac tst hedi sease,i nt heSI Rmode lt hee pi de mi ce ndsbe foret hes us ce ptible
    popul a tionf allst oz e ro.Thes tronge rt hepos itivel oop,howeve r,thef ewe rs us I
    ce ptibl esr ema ina tthee ndoft hee pide mi c.Al sonot et ha tunl iket hel ogl S
    t i
    c
    model ,t hebe ha vi ori snots ymme t
    r i
    c･.thei nf ect iouspopul a i
    tonr is esf as tert ha n
    itf alls.

    4Th eSIa n
    dS IRmo delswer eorl
    glnall
    yf ormulat
    eda sd et
    erminis
    ti
    cs ys
    temsreprese
    ntlngth e
    averagec onta
    ctrat
    ea ndabstr
    ac t
    lngfromt heindivi
    dualen counte
    rsamo ngme mbersofthep opula-
    t
    ion, Ke e
    pl nmindthatthedete mi
    r nist
    icfo r
    mu la
    tio
    nisamo del
    ingassumptl
    On, a
    PP r
    OPrl
    atein
    somes itl
    J
    -a
    tionsa!
    ldn ota
    p pr
    op rl
    ateinothe r
    s(part
    icll
    arly,Wbe !
    Hh epopulat
    ionsaresmallorth e
    vaia
    r nceinthedist
    ribut
    ionofc ontactr
    ates,infec
    ti
    vit
    y,a ndr e
    p?verytimeislar
    ge).Themo d el
    sa r
    e
    easi
    lyg eneral
    izedtoincorpo
    rateStOChasti
    ce ncount
    ers,i
    n fect
    lVl
    ty,andrecove
    ry,eit
    herbya dding
    r
    an domv a
    riat
    iontotherateequ at
    ionsofth eSIRmo delorb yr e
    presentl
    ngtheme mbersoft h
    ep op-
    ul
    a t
    iona sdiscr
    eteindi
    vidual
    sa nds pec
    ifyingd ec
    isi
    onrle
    u sforth
    eirinter
    act
    ion(anagenトb ased
    mo del).I
    nco r
    porat
    ingtheserandomefe ctsme an
    stherewi llbead i
    str
    ibuti
    onofp oss
    ibl
    eo utcome s
    f
    o ranys etofparameter
    s.Thes h a
    rpb o
    u ndaryb e
    tweena ne pi
    d e
    mica ndstab
    ili
    tydefin
    edb ythet i
    p-
    pl
    n gp Olnti
    nt h
    ed et
    erminist
    icmo d e
    lsbeco mesap ro
    bab i
    litydis
    tri
    butioncbar
    acter
    izl
    ngth echa nc
    e
    anep i
    d emicwilloccurforanyg ivenaverageratesOfinteract
    ion,i
    nfecti
    vlt
    y,andrecover
    y .Like-

    wise,theS IandS I
    Rmo del
    sa ssumeah o mo ge
    n e
    ousandwe ll
    -mixedp opul
    ati
    on,wh i
    leinre a
    li
    tylt
    i
    so 鮎ni mp or
    tantt
    or epr
    esents ubpopul
    atioI-
    Sandthesp ati
    aldimlSionofanepidemic.Fors pati
    al
    mo delsofthespreadofdiseasea ndotherrefi
    neme nt
    s,see Mu rr
    ay( 1
    993).
    Cha
    pte
    r9 S-
    Sha
    pedGr
    owt
    h:Epi
    demi
    cs,
    Ⅰnno
    vat
    lonDi
    軌si
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    andt
    heGr
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    hofNe
    wPr
    oduc
    ts3
    07

    Toil
    lustr
    atetheti
    pplngpoint
    ,Figure9-7s howsthes uscepti
    blepopulati
    onin
    severa
    lsimulati
    onsofthemode lwit
    hdi f
    fer
    entc ontac
    tr a
    tes･Theotherparameters
    areident
    icaltothoseinFigur
    e9- 6.Attheti
    ppi ngpoint(twoc ontac
    tspe rpers
    on
    perday),thenumbe rofnewcaseseachinfect
    ivege nerat
    eswhi l
    einfecti
    ousisjust
    equaltoone( 2contac
    tsperpe
    rsonpe rday*0125pr obabili
    tyofinfect
    ion* 2days
    ofinfect
    iviy)
    t .Contact
    satarat
    el es
    sthantwope rpersonperda ydonotc a
    usean

    2
    5
    0
    0
    FIGURE9 -6
    sa leE
    Simul ationofan
    2
    0
    0
    0
    epidemi ci nt he
    ^ Ja

    SIRmode一
    (
    ^t
    ^O Uatl
    2P P E o a d )

    0
    n
    5
    0
    I

    Thet o t
    al
    d
    Put= uO!

    popul ati
    oni s
    L
    0
    0
    0
    l

    10,000. The
    contac tratei s
    83alu E

    5
    0
    0

    6perper son
    perda y,infecti
    vi
    ty
    0

    i
    s0. 25, and
    0 4 8 12 16 20 24
    averagedur ati
    on Days
    ofinfectivit
    yf S
    2day s.The
    (
    al

    ini
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    doad)uo! ePdodaq

    popul ati
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    O
    0
    7
    5

    andal Tot hers


    areiniti
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    y
    l

    0
    A
    0
    5

    suscept ible,
    U
    J

    2
    5
    0
    0
    !ld ao sns

    0 4 8 12
    Days
    16 20 24

    GURE9
    FI -
    7
    (
    aF

    Epidemi c
    do ad)uo!tepdo

    dynami cs
    7
    5
    m

    fordif
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    .
    ⋮

    contactrates
    Thec on t
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    5
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    i
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    asinFi gure916.
    0

    2
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    4
    0
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    3D

    10 50 60
    a
    S
    30
    8 P
    artI
    II Th
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    e
    pid e
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    iti
    calthr
    esholdoft wo, t
    hesys -

    t
    em be comeuns table,anda nepidemicoc c
    u r
    s.Thehi gherthec ontactrat
    e,the
    s
    trongerthepos i
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    v econtaglOnlooprelat
    ivetothenegati
    ver ecoveryloop,andthe
    f
    a s
    terthee pid
    emi cprogresses.Furhe
    t r,t
    hes t
    rongert
    hepos iti
    vel oop,thegreat
    er
    t
    hepopul ationulti
    ma tel
    yc ontract
    lngthedisease.Anyc hanget hatincrea
    sesthe
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    trengtho fthepositi
    vel oopswi l
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    ds imil
    arresul
    ts･Ani ncreaseininfect
    ivl
    ty
    s
    trengthensthepositi
    velo opandisidenti
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    rea s
    einc ont
    actfr
    e-
    quency.Ani ncre
    a seinthed urat
    ionoftheinfecio
    t usperi
    odwe akensther e
    covery
    l
    o o
    pa nda lsopushesthes ystemfarhe
    t rpa s
    tthetl
    PPlngPO n
    l t
    ･

    Exphr
    ingt
    heS旧 ModeI
    Simula
    tetheSIRmode lundervari
    ouscombi
    nat
    ionsofpara
    met
    ers
    .Wha tde-
    te
    rmineswhethe
    ra nepi
    demicwillocc
    ur?Whatdete
    rmine
    sthef
    ract
    ionofthe
    popul
    ati
    onremai
    ninguni
    nfec
    tedinequi
    li
    bri
    um?Why?

    Theexa
    cttl
    pplngpOln
    tint
    heSIRmodelcaneas
    il
    ybecal
    cul
    ate
    d.Fo
    rane
    pide
    mic
    t
    oo c
    cur
    ,theinfe
    cti
    onrat
    emustexc
    eedthere
    cover
    yra
    te:
    I
    R>RR=⇒c
    iS(
    Ⅰ/
    N)>Ⅰ
    /d (
    9-25)
    o
    req
    ulVa
    len
    tly
    ,

    (
    9-26)
    c
    i 芸)>1
    d(
    Ine qua tio n(9 -26) ,thepr oduc to ft hec ont actrateandi nfectivityi sthenumbe rof
    infectiousc on tac tspe rt
    imepe riode achi nfec t
    iouspe rso nge ne rates. Mul ti
    plying
    byt hea ve ragedu ra
    tiono finf ection,d,y ie l
    dst hedime nsio nles sra t
    ioc id, known
    asthec ont actnu mbe y
    : Ho we ve r,nota l
    lthe sec ontactswi llbewi ths usc ept i
    bles,so
    nota llwi llres ulti nane wc a se. Thenumbe rofi nfe cti
    o usc ont actst ha ta ct
    ua l
    ly
    resultint hei nf ec t
    iono fas us c eptiblepe rs onde pendso nt hepr oba bilityt hatthe
    infT
    ective se ncou nters us ceptible s.As s
    umi ngt hepo pul ati
    o ni shomoge ne ous,the
    probabi lityo fe nc ount erlngaS us ceptiblei sglVe nbyt hepr e vale nc eo fs usc epti
    bles
    inthepo pula t
    io n,S/ N. Thee x pre ssionc i
    d( S/N)i sals ok no wna sther epr oduction
    ratefo rt hee pide mi c ｡Eq uation( 9- 26)t here f
    o redefi
    ne st het i
    p pingpo into rt h
    resh
    olda twhi cha ne pide mi coc cur si napo pul at
    io nandi sk no wna st het hr eshol dthe-
    oremi ne pidemi olog y.
    Not et hatthec ontactnumbe rc anbel a r
    gei finfecivl
    t tyi shi gho rift hed
    r ua-

    tio王
    10 finf e c
    tio ni slo ng. Thed ur atio王
    .
    l_Ofthei nfF
    Xt
    Ii oI
    J Sp
    er iodf o rd isea sess ucha s
    mea slesa ndc hic kenpoxi sve rys ho rt,ama t
    terofda ys ,butt he s
    edi se asesha ve
    highc ont actn umbe rsbe c
    a uset heya ree a s
    ilys preadt hr oug hc asua lc ont act｡h
    contras t,thec ont actr atea ndi nfec ti
    vityofHI Va remuc hl owe r( HI Vc annotbe
    spread血r oughc asua lc ontac tbuto nlyt hr oug hsexua lc onta cto re xc ha ngeof
    bloodorbl oodpr oduc ts).Ne ve rtheles s
    , t
    hec ontactnumbe rforHI Vi sh ig ha mo ng
    thosewhoe nga gei nr iskybe ha vio rsbe caus ethed ura t
    io nofi nf ectioni ss olong.
    Thei nc u ba t
    ionpe r
    iodpr lOrtOt hede velopme ntofclin i
    c alsympt omso fAI DSa v-
    eragesa bo ut1 0ye ars( Sees ectio n9. 2.7).
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    -Sh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    mic
    s,Ⅰ
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    軌si
    on,
    andt
    heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s309

    Figure9-8showshowt hetipplngpOlntdependsonthepa ra
    me ters
    .Thecurve
    i
    sthebo undarybet
    we e
    ns ta
    blea ndunstabl
    er egl
    me S.
    Tot helef
    toft hecur
    ve,t
    he
    s
    ystemi sst
    ableandthereisnoe pi
    de micbecausetheinfe
    c t
    ivi
    ty,contac
    tra
    te,du-
    r
    ati
    onofi nf
    ecti
    on,andfrac
    tionofsuscepti
    blesinthepopulat
    ionaretoolow.Tothe
    r
    ightofthecurve,t
    hesystemi sunsta
    ble,andthereisanepidemic.

    9.
    2.
    4 ⊆
    mmun章
    Zat
    ionandt
    heEr
    adi
    cat
    ionofSmaHpox
    Thee xi st
    e nc eoft het i
    ppi ngpoi nt( equa tion( 9- 26) )me ansi tisthe o ret
    ic a
    llypos -

    siblet oc ompl etel


    ye radicateadi seas e.Er adic ationdoesnotr equi reaPe rfec t
    va ccinea ndun iversalimmuni z ati
    onbutonl yt hewe akerc onditiont hatther e pro-
    duc ti
    onr at eoft hedi sea s
    ef alla ndr e ma inbe lowones ot ha tne wc a s
    esa risea ta
    lowe rr atet hano l
    dc ase sareres olve d. Thes toc kofi nfectiouspe opl ewi llthe nde -
    cline, furt
    he rreduc i
    ngthei nfectionr ate, untilt hepo pulationbe come sdi sease-fre e.
    Forma nydi seas e
    s ,i
    ti sdi f
    ficultori mpos siblet oa chieveo rma inta inthisc ondi -
    tionduet ohi g
    hi nf ecti
    vlty,thee xistenc eofr eservoi rsoft hedi se aseout sidet he
    huma npo pul ation( asi nma la r
    iaorLymedi s
    e ase,bot hofwhi c hha vea nima l
    hos t
    s ),ort hera pidinlfuxofs us ce ptiblepe opl et hroughbi rhs
    t ,mi gr at
    ion,ort he
    de cayofi mmu nl t
    y.
    Sma llpox, howe ve r,isdife rent.Sma llpoxwa sonc eoneoft hemos tdea dly
    disea sesa nde nde mict hroughoutt hewor ld. Thei nf ect
    ivl tyOfs ma ll
    poxi shi gh,
    butt hedur at
    ionofi nfe c
    tioni sshor t
    .Sur vivor sa cquire dl ong- live di mmunl ty.
    Mos timpo rtant,t
    hes ma ll
    poxvi rusca nnots ur viveout sideahuma nhos t
    -t he re
    arenoa nima lorot herr eservoirst oha rbort hevi us
    r .The seco nditionsme antt ha t
    thede velo pme ntofa ne fe cti
    veva ccine,de pl oye ds ufi cient l
    ybr oa dly,coul dr e-
    duc ethei nf ect
    ionr atebe lowt her e cove ryr at
    ea nde li
    mi na tethevi rus,e veni fnot
    eve r
    ype rs onc ou l
    dbei mmuni z ed.
    Thehi storyo fs ma ll
    poxe radica t
    ioni swe llk nown: Edwa rdJ enne rde ve lope d
    hef
    t i
    r stefe cti
    veva ccinei n1796. Des pitet hes uc ce ssofJ e nne r'
    sva ccine, i
    tt ook
    ma nyye arsf orva c ci
    na ti
    ont obea ccept ed;s ma llpoxwa ss ti
    llama jorC aus eOf
    de at
    ha tthes ta
    rtoft he20t hce ntury. Byt he1 950S ,duet oi mpr ove me ntsinpubl ic
    he al
    thpr ogr amsa ndi nt hee fe c t
    ive nes sa nds he lf-li
    feoft heva c cine,s ma llpox

    GURE9
    FI -
    8
    Dependen ceof
    c
    (p!

    theti
    pplngPOint i
    d(S/=
    N) 1
    onthec ontac
    t
    )
    3 Lむq
    (ssolu

    numberand
    L
    OI
    u

    suscept
    ibl
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    ide
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    Sua∈ !P)

    (
    uns
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    populat
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    DetuO
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    N
    oE p
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    Su
    sce
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    ,ofPopul
    at
    io
    n(S/N)
    (d
    imens
    l0nl
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    )
    310 Pa
    rtI
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    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    ha dbe e
    ne radica tedi nmos toft hei nd ustriali
    ze dwor ld.I nt hemi d-1960S ,the
    Wo r l
    dHe althOr ganiz at
    ion( WHO)C oo rdina tedavi go rouswor ldwidec ampa i
    gnt o
    trackt hedi sea se,immuni zet hes us c eptible ,andqua rantinet hes ick.Thel ast
    knownna tur all
    yoc cur ringCa s eWa sr epor tedi n1 9 77i nSoma li
    a.I n1 978,s ome
    sma llpoxv i
    uses
    r cape df rom ar esea rchl a bi nEngl a nda ndc a
    us edt woc ases,one
    fatal･Sinc ethe nnof ur t
    he rc a sesha vebe e nr eported, and, inoneoft hegr e atesttri-
    umphsi nthehi storyofme dicine,t hena ti
    onsoft hewo rlddec l
    aredi n1 980t ha t
    sma ll
    poxha dbe ene radi cate df romt hee arth
    Al mos t.Dur i
    ngt heCol dWa r,bot ht heUSa ndSovi etUni onma intaine d
    stocksofs ma llpoxvi rusa spa rtoft he irbi ologi calwa rfarepr ogr a
    ms .Thoughbot h
    na t
    ionss lgne dt he1 972Bi ol ogi calWe aponsConve nt ionba nningbi owe aponsa nd
    biowa r f
    arer es earch,t heyc ont inue dt oma intainthe irs toc ksofs ma llpox,a ndt he
    Sovi etUni onc ont i
    nue dbi owa rfarer ese archi nvi olationoft heConve ntion. Whi le
    theses ma llpoxs tocksa r ema i
    nt ainedi nt hehi ghe sts ec uritybioc onta inme ntla bs,
    therei snatur alco ncemt ha tt hevi rusmi g hte scape ,ac cident all
    y, t
    hrought errorism,
    orinwa r.AWHOpa ne l,a fterl onga nds ome t
    ime sa c ri
    moni ousde ba te,r ecom-
    me nde di n1 994t hata llUSa ndRus sians t
    oc ksoft hevi rusbedes tr oye dbyJ une
    1999. Howe ve r
    , ma nya na l
    ys t
    sbe l
    ievet erro r
    istso rna t
    ionss ucha sl ra qa ndNor t
    h
    Ko reama yha vea cqui reds ma llpoxf romt hef o me
    r rSovi etUni on. Be c aus epe opl e
    nol onge rr eceives ma ll
    poxva ccina t
    ions ,andbe c aus et hei mmuni tyC Onf erre
    dby
    childhoodva c cina t
    ionde ca ys ,muc hoft hewo rld'spo pul at
    iont oda yi ss usc epti
    bl e.
    Ther e l
    eas eofs ma l
    lpoxf romt he sestoc ksc ouldtrigge rama ss
    ivepa nde mi c. I
    nr e-
    spons e,Pr esidentCl intonor de redUSs ma ll poxs toc ksbepr ese r
    ve df orr esearc h,
    andWHOs us pende di tsa ttemptt oha vede clareds toc ksofs ma ll
    poxde stroye d.

    TheEf
    fi
    c領CyOfhl
    L
    muni
    Za如 FT
    .甲相 gT
    amS
    Equa ti
    on( 9-26)andFigure9-8s howhowt hevulner
    abil
    ityofapopulati
    ont oepi-
    demi cde pendsont heparameter
    soft heSIRmode l.
    Ma nyi nf
    ect
    iousdiseasesare
    highlyc ontaglOuSanditisnotfe a
    sibletoreducethecontactnumber.II
    nmuni za-
    tion,whe reva cci
    nesarea va
    ila
    ble,c a
    nbehi ghlyefe c
    tivenotonlyinpr ot
    ecting
    theimmuni zedindivi
    dualsbutalsoinmovi nga nenti
    repo pul
    ati
    onbelowt hetip-
    pingpoi nt.Fore xample,poli
    oha sallbutvanishedinna t
    ionswithst
    rongpubl i
    c
    hea l
    thprog ra
    msa ndWHOhope st oeradi
    cateitworl
    dwi dewithi
    nafe wye rs
    a .

    1
    . Eff
    e cti
    vene ssofimmuni zati
    om｡
    Thec ontactnumbe rforpol i
    oise sima
    t t
    edtober oughl
    y5t o7( Fine1 993).
    Wha tf
    ra cti
    onoft hepopul at
    ionmus tbevacci
    natedtoens urethatno
    epi
    de micwi lloccur?As s
    umet heva cci
    neislOO%e fe c
    tive. Nowc onsi
    der
    measlesa ndpe rt
    uss
    is( whoopingc ough),dise
    aseswhos ec ontac
    tnumbe rs
    ree
    a sti
    ma tedt obe12t o1 8(Fine1 993).Whatfract
    ionoft hepopul ati
    on
    mustbeva ccinat
    edtoe nsurenoe pidemicwi l
    loccur?Wha tfra
    ctionmus tbe
    vac
    c i
    na t
    edi fthevaccineisonly90%e ff
    ect
    ive?Whydome asl
    esa nd
    per
    tussispersistwhilepoliohasbe ene fect
    ivel
    ye li
    minated?
    Ne xt,simul a
    tet
    heSI Rmode lwi ththeparameter
    sinFi gure9- 6(C-6,
    i-0･ 25, d-2, N - 0, 000),buta
    1 ssumethat50%oft hepopul a
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    )
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    , t
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    poo lo fr eco vere di ndi vi dua ls. Thef o rmul a tiona l
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    re adybe e ni nfec ted,s ot he rei snof lowf ro mt he
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    Tot e stthee fe ctivene sso faJ ITi mmun iza t
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    e ctive ne s
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    ion
    canbeva ccina tedi nJuS t2da ys, Onc et het hr esho ldha sbe enr eache da ndt hede ci
    -
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    e ntialf orJ ITva c cination
    strateg l
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    fractionoft het otlpo
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    vac cinei so nl y95%e fe ctive ,onl y8 0%o ft hepo pul atio ni si mmuni ze d,a ndi fthe
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    e ctive. Bes ur et oc ons ide rthes oc iala swe l
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    cont a ctr atea ndot he rpa rame tersa rec ons t
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    slgni fica ntc ha nge si npe opl e' sbe ha vio rorf orr ese arc honpr eve nt ionort r eatme nt
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    atef ordi s ea se ss uc ha s
    HI V/ AI DSwhe ret hei nc uba tiont imei sl ong. Figur e9 - 1 1showst hei nc ide nc ea nd
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    pre va lenc eofAI DSa monga dul tsi nt heUS･ 5
    Theda tas ho wi mpo rta nts hiftsi nt hedyna mi c soft hee pide mi ci nt heUS. I
    -n
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    stea dilyunt ila bout1 995a ndha sde clineds igni fic ant lys inc e.Mor ta lityc lose ly
    followsi nc ide nc ea nde xhi bi tsa ne ve nl arge rde cline･ Thede c linei nmor ta l
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    retrovi ra lthe ra py) . Ove ra llinc ide nc eha sde cline dd uet oar educ tioni nne wc as es
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    known.Mor ei mpor tant ly,HAARTi se xce edi ngl yc os tlya nd,i nma nyna tions ,
    simpl yuna va ilab l
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    sea nd
    inma nyna tionsha sl ongs inc epa s se dt hec risispol nt .Thes cal eoft hee pi de mi ci s
    almos ti mpos s i
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    quar te roft hee n t
    irepo pul a tionofZi mba bwewa si nf e cte dwi thHI V; i
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    mi ll
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    jecte dt odi e.Mor talitya ndmor bi dityf rom HI Va ndAI DSi nma nyoft he s e
    nationsha veove rwhe lme dt hehe althc ares ys tems .TheWHO es tima test ha ti n
    1990t he rewe ref ewe rt ha n200hos pita l
    sa nd1 400doc torsina llofZi mba bwe ,a
    nationofmor et ha n1imi llion.Li fee xpe cta nc yi sf a lling.Des pi tet hede clinei n
    AI DS- relate dmo rta l
    ityl ns omeOft hea flue
    f ntnat ionsoft hewor l d, theHI V/ AI DS
    pande mi ci sf a rfrom ove r.TheWHOr e porte dtha ti n1 998AI DSwa st hef our th
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    5
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    ly,a ndt hos ewi thpr iorhea lt
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    i
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    ityr atewase xtreme lyhi gh.
    estima te dAI DS- OI s, About93% ofa llt hos edi agnos e dpr lOrt O1 986i nt heUSha ddi edbyt hee ndof
    andde ath sar eal l
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    6
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    notcompletel
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    ModeHぎ
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    verypooras sumpt i onf ormode li
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    mode lsofHI V/ AIDSdi saggregat ethepopul ationintos everalcategoriesthat
    representthedi fe re ntmodesoft rans mi ssion( primaril
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    7Thes egroups
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    uc
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    A.Feedbac ks tructureo ft heHI V/ AIDSe pidemi c.


    Onc eyo uhaved e velopedt hes t
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    ant. Mod ifyyo urca us aldiagra
    mt oincor
    po ra
    tefeedbacks
    yoube li
    evea reimpo r
    ta n
    t .
    Bes u
    ret oc ons iderthefollo
    wing:

    I
    .Theavera
    gecont
    actr
    atemayf
    allaspeopl
    ebe c
    omea wareoft
    heris
    kof
    HIVandt
    hewaysinwhic
    hitcanbetr
    ansmitt
    ed;tha
    tis,s
    omepeoplema
    y
    r
    educ
    eorabs
    tai
    nfromuseofi
    ntra
    venousdrugsorsexua
    lcont
    act
    .
    2.Thei nfe
    c ti
    vlt
    yO fcontact
    sd ependso npe ople'sbe ha vi
    or.Saferse
    x
    practi
    cesa ndtheuseo fcleanne edlesbyI Vd r
    ugus erscanreducethe
    inf
    ec t
    ivl
    tyO fthosecontactsthatdoo ccur.Theus eofs afersexpracic
    t es
    andc lea
    nn e
    edlesinturnde pendsonpe opl
    e' sawa re
    ne s
    so ft
    her i
    skofHIV
    inf
    ec t
    iona nditsconsequenc e
    sa ndo nthea va i
    labilit
    yo finfo
    ma
    r t
    ionand
    resourcesaboutthesepractices｡Inturn,t
    hea vai
    la bili
    tyofinformati
    onabout
    safe
    rs exa ndt
    hei mpo r
    tanceo fne edl
    ec leanlng, alongwi t
    hc ondomsand
    clea
    nne e dle
    s,dependso nsoc i
    ala t
    tit
    udesa ndpu blichealt
    hpr ogr
    amsin
    theme dia,schools
    , a
    ndo therc ommunl tyOr ganizations.
    3,Re sear
    cha ndde vel
    opme ntintotr
    eatmentssucha sHAARTc a
    nreduce
    t
    hemo rta
    lityra te.
    Thea vail
    abili
    tyofthesetreat
    me ntsdependsonthe
    extenttowhi cht heyarereimbu rs
    ableth
    r o
    ug hhealthinsur
    anceandon
    t
    hewi l
    li
    ngne s
    sofpe opletoge tte
    stedforHIV. Ma nypeo p
    leareunwil
    li
    ng
    t
    obet es
    tede ve nift
    heykno wt heya reatri
    sk,outoff ea
    r,fre
    quent
    lywell
    f
    o unded,tha ttheyma ybes tigmati
    zed,i
    nc l
    udingthepos si
    bil
    ityt
    heymight
    l
    os ethei
    rjo bs, homes,andfr i
    ends.
    Inre presenti
    ngc hange sinpe ople'
    sbe havior( e｡g.,chang esinc ont
    a c
    trates
    andi nfectivi
    ty), considerho wpe oplemi ghtbe comea wa r
    eoft hee xis
    tence,
    sever l
    ty,andr i
    skso fHI Va ndd iff
    erentbe havio rs.
    Dot heyr eadtheNe w
    Engl andJour nalo fMe dicineo rgettheirinforma t
    ionthr oughwo r
    do f
    mo utho rpe r
    s ona lacquaintancewi t
    hs ome ones ufferi
    ngf romAI DS?Ho w
    dope oplejudget her iskofi nfect
    iona ndthec o nseque nceso finfecti
    on?
    Peopl earemuc hmo rel i
    kelytoc ontractthec ommo nc ol
    dt hanHI V buta
    coiddo e
    sno tins pirethedr eadHI Vdoe s.Wha tinforma t
    ions ourcesare
    ordina r
    ype oplee xposedto, andhowpe rsua si
    vea r
    et he s
    ei ninducing
    change sinbe ha vior?Wha tistheroleofs oc iala t
    ti
    tude stowa rdthe
    beha viorsthr
    o ug hwhi chHI Vc anbet ransmi t
    te d?Wha tisther ol
    eo f
    gove rnme ntpolic ies
    ?Bes uretoc onsiderthet imed elaysinthef eedbacks
    youi dentify.
    Useyourcaus
    aldia
    gramtoe xpla
    inthedyna
    micsoftheAIDS
    epi
    demici
    ntheUS. Inpar
    ti
    culr
    a ,
    explai
    n,inte
    rmsofthefee
    dbackst
    ruc
    tur
    e
    oft
    hesyst
    em, whythefr
    act
    ionalgrowthrat
    eoft
    heepidemicfe
    lli
    nthe
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    ISh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    ic
    m s
    ,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    fus
    io
    n,a
    ndtheGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s32
    3

    ear
    lyyears
    .Ex pla
    inthedec
    lineinincidencebegi
    nnl
    ngabout1995andthe
    evenst
    eeperdecli
    neinmo r
    tali
    ty.Explainwhythenumberofpeopl
    eli
    vlng
    wit
    hAI DSc onti
    nuestoi
    ncrease(Figure9-12)
    .
    Tr ea
    tme nt
    ssucha sHAARThol dthepromi s
    et oconvertHI Vinfect
    ion
    from ade athsente
    ncet oac hronici nfecti
    onwi t
    hl owmor tali
    ty.Basedo n
    yourdi agram,wha tcha ngesinbe ha vi
    ormi ghtari
    s easasidee f
    fectofthe
    de vel
    opme ntofHAART?Howmi ghtthesec ha
    nge saff
    ectthec ontac
    trate
    ori nf
    e c
    tivi
    ty?Woul dthes efeedbac ksincreaseorde c
    reasetheinc i
    denceof
    HI Vi nfec
    tion?Explain. Wha tarethepubl ichealt
    hi mpli
    cationsof
    suc ce
    s s
    fultreat
    mentss ucha sHAART?

    C.Si
    mul
    ati
    ngt
    heHI
    V/AI
    DSe
    pide
    ic
    m .
    De vel
    opaf orma lmode loftheHI V/AI DSe pidemi cba sedont hestructur eyou
    identi
    fya bove. Todos oyouwi l
    lne edtous eanumbe rofnonl i
    nearbe ha vioral
    functi
    ons( e.
    g.,toc apturethewa ype rc
    eptionsofr iska lt
    e rthec ontac trateor
    infect
    ivity).Gui delinesf orthede velopme ntofs uc hnonl ine arfunc t
    ionsa re
    foundi nc hapter1 4.Wo r
    k( atleastiniti
    ll
    a y)wi t
    has i
    ngl ea ggregates tocka nd
    lows
    f t
    uc
    r tu
    re,a nddonotdi saggrega t
    eyourmode lintos ubpo pulations .Sim -

    ulateyourmode lunde ratleasttwoc ondi t


    ions :()ont
    1 heas sumpt i
    onofnobe -
    havioralc hangea ndnoi mpr ove me ntint reatme ntsa nd ( 2)includi ngt he
    feedbacksyoui dentif
    iedi npa rtBt hatmi ghtleadt oc ha nge sint hec ont ac
    t
    rate,i
    ni nfecti
    vlty,andi nmor t
    a l
    ity.Explainther esults.Tes tthepolic yre com-
    me ndati
    onsyoui dentifi
    edi npa rtB･ Discusst hepol i
    cyl mPl icati
    ons ･
    8

    9.
    3 l
    NNOVAT10N DI
    FFUSt
    ONASINFECT1
    0N:
    M oDELt
    NG NEW I
    DEASAND NEW PRODUCTS
    Thedi ffusiona ndadopt i
    onOfne wi de asa ndne wpr oduc tsof t
    enf ollowsS- shape d
    growt hpa tt
    erns.Wha tarethepos i
    tivef e
    e dbackstha tgene r
    a t
    et hei nitialexpone n-
    tialgrowt hofas ucces s
    fuli nnova tion,a ndwha ta rethene gativef ee dbackst hat
    limititsgr owt h?Cons i
    dert hes prea dofc abl
    et el
    evi si
    on( Figur e4- 9). Theg rowt h
    oft hepo pulati
    o nofc ablet elevis
    ions ubs cri
    bersca nnotbee xpl ainedbyt hebi rth
    ofc hildre ntoe xist
    ingC ables ubsc ribe r
    s,thought heof fspringofhe avyTVvi ew-
    ersdot endt og rowupt obec ol
    lChpot atoes･Wha tthena ret hepos i
    tivel oopsr e-
    spons i
    bl ef ortheg r
    owt hoft hec ablei ndus t
    ry?
    Thes preado frumor sa ndne wi de as,t
    hea doptionofne wt echnol ogl eS,andt he
    growt hofne wp r
    oduc tscana l
    lbevi ewe da sepidemi cssprea dingbypos it
    ivef e
    e d-
    bac ka st hosewhoha vea dol)t
    e dthei nnova t
    ion" i
    nf ect
    "t hos ewhoha venot .The
    conc eptofpos iti
    vef eedba cka sadr iverofa doptiona nddi ffus i
    oni sve ryge neral
    andc a nbea ppliedtoma nydoma inso fsocialcontagion( e.g.,thef ee dbacks tuC
    r -
    tureoft hec oca i
    nee pidemi cde scr i
    be di ns ect
    ion7. 3).Ar umors pre adsa sthos e
    whoha vehe ardi tt
    ellthos ewhoha venot ,whot hengoont ot ellstil
    lot hers･Ne w
    ideass pr eada sthosewhobe l
    ievet he mc omei ntoc ontactwi tht hos ewhodonot
    8
    Forth
    epurpos
    eoft
    h i
    scha
    lle
    n geit
    isac
    cept
    abl
    etomod e
    lth
    etran
    sit
    io
    ns血･
    omonecat
    ego
    ryof
    i
    nf
    ect
    edindi
    vi
    dualt
    othenex
    tasfirs
    t-
    orde
    rproc
    ess
    es.Morere
    ali
    si
    tcmodel
    sre
    pre
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    tthei
    ncub
    a -

    t
    io
    nandmo r
    ta
    li
    tydi
    st
    ri
    b u
    ti
    onsderi
    v e
    dfro
    me mpl
    ri
    cls
    a t
    udie
    smoreaccur
    at
    el
    ythr
    ouht
    g heuseof
    h
    ighe
    r-
    orde
    rdel
    ays(s
    eechap
    ter11).
    324 P
    artI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    a ndpe r sua det he mt oa do ptthene wbe lie f･Thene wbe lieversi nt um t he npe rsua de
    ot he rs･Ase a rlya dopt er sofne wt echnol ogya nde ar lypur cha ser sofane wpr oduc t
    e xpos et he irf riends ,fa mi lies ,anda cqua int ancest oi t,somea repe rsua de dt ot ryl t
    orbuyi tt he ms elve s ･Ina llthes ec a ses ,t hos ewhoha vea l
    re adya dopt e dt hepr od-
    uc t, i
    de ao rte chnol ogyc omei ntoc ont a ctwi ththos ewhoha venot ,expos lngt he m
    toi ta ndi nf e ctings omeoft he mwi tht hei de a,orthede siretobuyt hene wpr oduc t
    a ndf urthe ri nc reas lngt hepopul ationofa dopt ers･Anys i
    tua tioni nwhi chpe ople
    imi ta tet hebe ha vior ,be l
    ie fs,o rpur cha sesofot hers,a nys it
    ua ti
    oni nwhi c hpe ople
    jumpOnt heba ndwa gon,de scr ibesas itua t
    ionofpos i
    tivef e edba ckbys oc ilc
    a on-
    ta glOn･ Ofc our se ,onc et hepopul ationofpot ent i
    ala dopt ersha sbe ende pl eted, the
    a do ption( inf e ction)r atef al
    lst oz ero. 9
    Int hec a blet elevi sionc ase, impor tantf actorsinahous ehol d' sde c isiont os ub-
    sc ribe( as sumi ngc ablei sa va ila blei nt hec ommuni ty)i ncludef avor abl ewor dof
    mo uthf ro mt hos ewhoa lrea dys ubs c ribea ndpos it
    ivee xpe rie nc esvi e wl ngC abl ea t
    thehome soff ri
    e ndsa ndf ami ly. Pe opl ehe ara boutpr ogr amsonl ya va ilableonc - a
    bl ea ndf e elthe ymus ts ubs c ribet obehi pa ndkn Owl edge ablea mongt he irpe e rsin
    sc hoo lora tt hewor kpl a ce･ Addi tiona lly, pe oplema ys ubs cribet oke e pupwi tht he
    Jones es ,tha ti s ,toma inta inore nha nc et he i
    rs tatus( ort he i
    rpe rce ptionoft he irs ta
    -
    tus )a mongt he irpe e rgr oup. Al loft hes ec hanne lsofa wa rene ssa ndmot iva tions
    fora dopt ionc re atepos itivef ee dba cksa na logoust ot hec onta glOnl oopl nt heba si
    c
    epi de mi cmode l.
    Fi gur e9-13a da ptst heSIe pi de mi cmode l( section9. 2.1 )t ot heca seofi nno-
    va tion di f fus ion.Thei nfe ctiouspopul a t
    ion now be c ome st hepopul ati
    on of
    ado pt er s,A-t hos ewhoha vea dopt e dt hene wi de aorpur cha sedt hene wpr oduc t.
    Thes us cept ibl epo pul ationbe come sthepoolofpot e ntia lado pt ers ,P.Ado pter sa nd
    pot ent ila
    a do pt erse nc ount eronea not he rwi thaf r
    e que nc yde teri ne
    m dbyt hec on-
    tac tra te,C･ Un li kei nfe ctiousdi sea ses ,Wo rdofmout he nc ount erst ha tmi ghtl ead
    toa do ptionc oul doc curbyt elephone,ma il,ema i
    l,orot herr e mot eme ansa nddo
    not requl rePhys icalpr oxi mi ty.Asi ni nf ec ti
    o usdi s
    e as e,note ve rye ncount err esul t
    s
    ini nf ec t
    i on. Thepr opor tionofc ont ac tst hata resufi c i
    e ntl
    ype rs uasivet oi nduc e
    thepot entiala do ptert oa doptt hei nnova tioni st e
    rme dhe ret hea do ptionf ra ction
    andde not edi( sinc et hea do pt ionf rac tioni sa nalogoust ot hei nf ectivityofadi s
    -
    ea sei nt hee pide mi cmode l).
    Thee qua tionsf ort hes impl ei nnova tiondi ffusionmode la rei dent icalt ot hos e
    fort heSImode lofc hr oni ci nfe ctionde scribedi n9･ 2･1･ Us ingt het e rmi nol ogyl n
    Fi gure9- 1 3, themode li s
    A-I
    NTEGRAL(
    AR,
    Ao) (
    9-29)
    p-I
    NTEGRAL(
    -AR,
    N-A｡
    ) (
    9-30)
    AR-°
    ip(
    A/N) (
    9-31
    )

    Asi
    ntheSImode
    l,t
    het
    ota
    lpopul
    ati
    onNi
    scons
    tant
    :
    P+A-N (
    9-32)

    9
    Thel
    it
    er
    at
    ur
    eond
    i軌I
    Si
    ono
    fne
    wpr
    odu
    ctsa
    ndo
    fso
    cia
    lan
    dte
    chn
    ica
    lin
    nov
    ati
    onsi
    shu
    ge･
    Agoodpl
    acetos
    ta
    rti
    sEver
    et
    tRoge
    rs(19
    95),
    DIHu
    siono
    flnnov
    ati ,
    onsacl
    ass
    icoig
    rinal
    ly
    pu
    bli
    she
    din196 Fo
    2. rdi
    fusi
    onmode
    lsappl
    i
    edtot
    hesal
    esofnewpro
    duc
    ts
    ,seePar
    ker(
    1994)
    a
    ndMa ha
    jan,
    Mu l
    l
    er,
    andBas
    s(1
    990).
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    ISh
    ape
    dGr
    owh
    t:Ep
    ide
    ic
    m s
    ,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    fus
    io
    n,a
    ndth eGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s325

    FIGURE9- 13
    Adop ti
    onofan ew
    i
    deaorpr odu ctas
    anepi demi c
    Pot en ti
    aladopt ers
    comei nt
    oc ont act
    withadopt er s
    throu ghsoci al
    i
    n t
    er ac ti
    ons.
    Af ractionoft hese
    cont ac t
    sr esu一 tin
    i
    n f
    ec tion,thati s,
    adop tionoHhe
    newi deaor
    purch as eoft he
    newpr oduc t･
    Compar et o Thei nter
    pret
    ati
    oni sthes a
    mea si
    nt heSImode l
    ･ Pe oplei ntherelevantc om一
    Figur e9- 4･ munltyC Omeintocontacta tarat
    eofcpe oplepe rpersonpe rda y･Thetotalra t
    ea t
    whichcont act
    saregeneratedbyt hepot entialadopterpooli sthe ncP･Thepr opor -
    ti
    onofa doptersi
    nthetotalpopul ati
    on,A/ N, givesthepr oba bili
    tythatanyoft he se
    conta
    ctsiswi t
    ha nadopterwhoca npr ovidewo rdofmo utha bouttheinnova tion･
    Final
    ly,t
    hea dopti
    onfraction,i
    , i
    st heproba bili
    tyo fado ptiongi venaC Ont
    a CtWi t
    h
    anadopter.Asbefore,t
    hesee quationscons ti
    tutea nexa mpl eoft heloglSt
    icgr owth
    modeldiscussedinsect
    ion9. 1.
    1 .Thebe ha vi
    o rofthemode li stheclass
    icS- S
    ha ped
    growthoft helog
    ist
    iccurve( Figure9- 1)･

    9.
    3NI TheLogはt
    icMode!ofE
    nnov甜 onDi
    ff
    usi
    on:
    EXampヨ
    es
    Thedi ffusionofma nyne wpr oduc tsfollowr oughl yl oglStictr
    aJe CtOries ･Asa ne x-
    ample ,Figure9- 14s howss alesoft heDi gi talEqui pme ntCo r
    por ati
    oI IVAX 11 /750
    minicomput erinEur ope( Modュ s1 992) ･
    TheVAXs e ri
    eswa save r
    ys ucc e ssfulline
    ofmi nicomput er
    s .
    The ys oldf ora bout$1 00,000t o$1 50,000auni t,de pe ndingon
    whichpe ripher a
    ls( suc ha st apedr ives)we rei nclude d,a ne xc ell
    e ntva luec om-
    paredt ot hema infr amesoft heda y･Typi ca lc ustome r
    swe rel argec ompa nie s
    ,
    res
    earc hor ganizati
    ons ,anduni versit
    ies, whous edt he mf orda tapr oc ess l
    nga ppl i
    -
    cat
    ionsa ndtos u
    ppor tscientificande nglne er l
    ngc omput ati
    oni nR&Dl a bs,pr od-
    uctde velopme ntde pa rtme nts,a nda cade mi cr e s
    e ar
    c h.The11 /750wa si nt roduc ed
    in1981 .Sa l
    esf oll
    ow t hec las s
    icbe l
    l-sha pe dpr oduc tlif
    ec yc le,pe aki ngl nmi d
    1984.Thepr oduc twa swi t
    hdr awnf rom t hema r
    ke ta round1 98 9･Ac c umul ated
    sal
    esf ollowa nS- Sha pedpa t
    h.Si nc etheus e fullifetimeoft heVAXi sl ongc om-
    paredt othet i
    mehor izonf ort hepr oduc tlifec ycle,iti sreasona blet oa s sumet hat
    fewuni tswe red isca rdedpr 10rt O1 989whe nt hepr oduc twa swi t
    hdr awnf rom t he
    marke t.The r
    e forecumul atives alesisagoodme asur eoft heins ta
    lle dba se･
    Tof itthel oglS
    ti cpr oduc tdi f
    fusionmode ltot heVAXs alesda ta,a ss umet he
    tot
    alpopul a t
    ionN -c umul atives alesby1 989( abo ut7600uni ts)･ Ther e ma i
    ni ng
    para
    me teroft hemode l,repre sentl
    ngt hepr oduc toft hec ontac tratea nda dopt ion
    326 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    GURE9
    FI -
    14
    Sal
    esoft he
    Di
    gitalEqulPment
    Corporat
    ionVAX
    ll/
    750i nEurope
    Top:Salesrate
    (quart
    erl
    ydat a
    atannualrates).
    Bottom:Cumul a
    -

    ti
    vesales(roughly
    equa日ot he
    1981 1983 1984 1986 1988
    i
    ns t
    aHedbase) .
    8000

    600
    0

    の
    l
    l
    ll
    ■
    ≡
    ■ 4000
    =
    〉

    2000

    1981 1983 1984 1986 1988


    ℃e:Mo
    SouJ dJ 1992,
    S( p.58)
    .

    f
    ract
    ion(c
    i),Canbees t
    imatedeas
    ilybyli
    ne a
    rregressi 1
    on.0Fi
    rst
    ,re
    cal
    lfr
    om equa-
    t
    ion(9-
    8)thatthesolut
    iontothel
    ogist
    icequati
    onc a
    nbee xpr
    ess
    ed(us
    ingthevai-
    r
    a
    blenamesf ortheinnovat
    iondif
    fusi
    onmode labove)as

    a R e
    xp(
    got
    , (
    9-3
    3,

    whe eA i
    r sthenumbe rofa dopters(t
    heinstal
    ledbase),A｡i stheini
    ti
    a li
    nstal
    led
    base,Nist hetotalequil
    ibrium orfina
    lvalueofa dopt
    ers,andgoistheinit
    ialfr
    ac-
    ti
    onalgrowt hr a
    teoft hei nst
    a l
    ledbase,whicha ttheinit
    ialti
    mewhe nthereare
    veryfew adoptersisequa ltothenumbe rofinf
    e c
    tivecontact
    s(ci).
    Takingthena t
    -
    urall
    ogofbot hs ides ,

    l
    l
    -
    ,
    lR ] -i
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    ele ra ndc lientt oe xami net hea ss umpt io nsOft hemo de lind e tail,toc ond uc tf i
    eld
    stud ie so fde c isionma ki ng, andt oe xpl or et hes ens itivltyO fmo de lre sultst opl au-
    sibl ea lterna tivea ssumpt io ns( a mo ngo the rt es ts)･ De te r
    mi ni ngwhe t
    he ramode l
    pr ovi d esas o un dba sisf ord e cis ionma kingl Sne v erama t
    terO nl yo fs tais
    t tic alt est
    -
    1ngO rhi s torica lfitbuti se sse nt iallya nduna vo ida bl yava l
    u ej udgme ntt hemod-
    ele ra ndc lientmus tma ke .
    Unf ortuna te ly,c lien tsa ndmode lersf req ue nt lyg ivehi s torica lfi tt oomuc h
    we ight .J ud ingt
    g hea ppr o pri ate ne s sOft hemod el '
    ss tuc
    r ture ,
    i tsro bus tne ss ,a ndi t
    s
    se ns itivltyt Oa ssumpt i
    o nst ake st ime,whi lehi storic alf i
    tc anbede mo ns trated
    qui c kly.Gr aphss howi ngaC l os ef itbe twe e nda taa ndmo de la red r ama tica nd
    co mpe lli
    ng. Cl ient sa ret ooe asi lys wa ye dbys uc hg raphsa ndbyi mpr e ssivet ables
    ofR2a ndo the rs tatistics ･Mode ler s,e ve nwhe nt he yknowbe t
    ter ,tooo f teno ve r
    -
    empha sizes ta ti
    s ic
    t ss ho wi ngho wwe llt he irmod e lsf i
    ttheda t atope r s
    ua det hea u-
    die nc et ha tthes t
    r onghi s tori ca lf itoft hemo de lme ansi tmus tbec o rr
    e ct.
    Yo us ho uldn otc o nc ludef ro mt hisdi scus sio nt ha thi storica lfiti suni mpo r
    tant
    ort ha tyo udon otne edt oc ompa r eyourmod el st ot henu me r
    ic alda ta ･Ont hec on-
    trary , co mpa rlngmod elo utpu tt onu me ricalda tai sapowe r f
    u lwa yt oi de nt ifyl i
    m-
    itatio nso rfla wsi nmode lf or mul a tions . Butt he rei sap rofoun dd ife renc ebe twe en
    us inghi sto r
    ic ald a t
    at oi de nt ifyf la wss oyourmo de lsc anbei mpr ove da ndus ing
    his toric alf i
    tt oa s sertt heva lidi yo
    t fyourmode l .Int hel atterc a se,s howi nghow
    we llthemod elf itst heda tai sade fens ivema ne uve rde s
    ig nedt opr ote ctamode l
    andt hemo delerf ro mc riticis ma nds ealst hec lient -a ndmod eler-o fff ro ml ean
    r-
    1ng.I nt hef orme rc ase ,t hehi stor ic alf iti sus e dt of indpr obl emsa nds timul a t
    e
    lea ni
    r ng. Exa mi n inghi sto ric alf its ho uldbepa rto fal a rgerp ro ce sso ft es tlnga nd
    mode li mp rove me n td esig ne dt oyi e ldamode ls ui tablef orpo licyde s i
    gna ndd ec i
    -
    sionma ki ng( Seec hapt er21 ).
    3
    32 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    9
    .3.
    3 Th
    eBa
    ssDi
    f
    fus
    ionMode
    一
    Oneoft hef lawsi nt hel ogi s
    ticmode lofi nnova ti
    ondi fus ioni st hes tart
    uppr ob1
    len.I nt hel ogi stic( andt heot he rsimpl egr owt hmodel sincl udi ngtheRi chards
    andWe ibul lfami lies), zeroi sane quilibri
    um: thel ogisticmodelca nnote xpl a
    int he
    genes i
    soft hei nitialadopt ers.Pr i
    ort othei ntr oduct i
    onofca blet elevision,t he
    numbe rofca bles ubs c r
    ibe rswasz ero; prlOrtOt hef irstslesoft
    a heVAXmi nicom-
    puter,thei ns tal
    l edbas ewasz e ro.Whe ngr owt hpr oces sesbegi n,pos iti
    vef eed-
    backsde pendi ngont hei nstall
    edbas ea r
    ea bs entorwea kbeca uset herea renoor
    onlyaf e
    wa dopte rs.Ini ti
    a lgrowthi sdr i
    ve nbyot he rfeedba c ksout si
    det hebound-
    aryoft hes impl edi ff usionmode ls.The reares eve r
    a lcha nne lsofawa renes st
    ha t
    cans ti
    mul a teear lya dopt ionofne wi nnova ti
    onsbes i
    deswor dofmout ha ndr elated
    feedbac ke fec tst hatde pendont hes izeoft hea dopt erpopul ation.Thes einc l
    ude
    advertisi
    ng,medi are por t
    s ,anddi r e
    cts al
    ese fforts.
    FrankBas s( 1969)devel ope damodelf ort hedi ffusionofi nnova tionst hat
    overcomest hes tartuppr obl em.TheBa ssdi ffus i
    onmodelhasbe comeoneoft he
    mos tpopul armode lsf ornew pr oduc tgrowt ha ndi swi del yus edi nma rke t
    ing,
    st
    rategy, ma na geme ntoft echnol ogy, andot he rfie l
    ds .Bas ssol vedt hestart
    uppr ob1
    1em byas suml ngt hatpot entiala dopt ersbe comea wa reoft hei nnova tiont hrough
    externali nfor ma tions our ceswhos ema gnitudea ndpe rsuas ivenes sa rer oughl y
    constantove rtime.
    Theor lglnalBas smode lwa sintroduc edpr i
    ma r i
    lyasat oolf orf orecas t
    lng
    salesofne w produc ts,a ndBas sdidnots pe ci
    fyt hena tureofthef eedba cksa tthe
    ope rati
    ona llevel .Thepos iti
    vef eedba cki sus ua l
    lyi nter
    pretedaswor dofmout h
    (soc i
    ale xpos urea ndimi ta
    tion)a ndthee xte
    rna lsour cesofa warenessa nda doption
    areus ua l
    lyi nterpr etedast heef fectofa dve ris
    t ing( Figure9- 18Showst hef eedba ck
    st
    r uctureoft hemode lwi t
    ht hisinterpretati
    on) .1
    1
    I
    nFi gur e9- 18t het otaladopt i
    onr a teisthes um ofa doptlOnSr esul t
    ingf rom
    wor dofmout h(andi mpl icit
    lyot herpos iti
    vef eedba cksdr i
    venbyt hepopul ati
    onof
    adopt ersort heins t
    all
    edba seoft hepr oduc t)anda doptionsresult
    ingf rom a dve r -

    ti
    slnga nda nyot he rext e r
    na linf
    lue nces .Adopt ionsf r
    om wor dofmout ha refor-
    mul a t
    ede xa ct
    lyasi nt hel ogisticinnova tiondi 軌s ionmode l(equa tion( 9-31 )).
    Bas sa ssumedt hepr oba bili
    tyt hatapot entialadopt erwi lladoptasther esultofe x-
    pos uret oagl Vena mountOfadve rtisl
    nga l
    ldthevol umeofa dve rt
    isinga ndot her
    exte na
    r li nf
    luencesea chpe ri
    oda r
    econs t
    ant.The reforetheext ema linflue nces
    caus eac ons tant血. actionoft hepot enti
    a ladopte rpopul ati
    ont oadoptea cht imepe-
    ri
    od. Henc ethea dopt ionr at
    e,AR,i s
    AR-Ado
    pti
    onf
    romAd
    ver
    ti
    sl
    ng+Ado
    pti
    onf
    rom Wo
    rdo
    fMo
    uth (
    9-36)

    Ado
    ptl
    Onf
    romAdve
    rti
    si
    ng-a
    P (
    9137)

    1i
    Th eor
    lglnal
    mo de
    l,i
    nc ont
    inuou
    stime,wasspec
    ifi
    edasdA/dt-AR-a P+b PA, whe
    re
    aandbwe repara
    me ter
    stobee s
    timat
    edstat
    is
    ti
    cll
    a yfromthedat
    ao nsle
    a soradopte
    rs.Bas
    s(1969)
    di
    dn o
    t ex
    plici
    tl
    yd is
    cussth
    ef e
    edbackloopst
    ruc
    tur
    eo ft
    hemo delorspe
    cif
    ywh att
    hep r
    oce
    ssesof
    ad
    opti
    onWe reOPerati
    onll
    a y,1
    nSteadca
    ll
    ingt
    hemi nnova
    ti
    onandimi t
    at
    ionOthersref
    ertot
    hetwo
    l
    oopsasextern
    alan dint
    ena
    r l i
    nfl
    uence
    so nado
    ptl
    On .
    Themo delwasals
    oc r
    it
    ic
    izedforomi
    tt
    lng
    ec
    onoica
    m n doth
    e rvari
    abl
    esthatafec
    thea
    t dopt
    iondeci
    si
    onsucha spr
    lCeOradver
    ti
    slnge
    ffo
    rt
    (
    seethechall
    engesb e
    low;seeal
    soBa s
    s,Kri
    shnan,an
    dJ a
    ln1994).
    Ch
    apt
    er95
    -Sh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    mic
    sJn
    nov
    ati
    onDi
    ff
    us
    io
    n,a
    ndt
    heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s333

    FIGURE9- 18
    TheBas sdif
    fusi
    on
    model
    Themode一
    i
    ncludesan
    extern
    a一sourceof
    awarenessand
    adopti
    on,usuaHy
    i
    n t
    erpret
    edas
    theeff
    ectof
    advert
    isi
    ng,

    Ad
    opt
    ionf
    romWo
    rdo
    fMo
    uth-c
    iPA/
    N (
    9-38
    )
    whe
    retheparamete ra,adve
    rtl
    Slngefecive
    t nes
    s,i
    sthefra
    cti
    ona
    la dopt
    ionrat
    e
    f
    romadver
    tis
    ing(1/timeperi
    od).
    Thetwos our
    ce sofadopt
    iona r
    eass
    ume dtobei
    ndepe
    ndent
    .Coll
    ectl
    ngter
    ms ,
    t
    hemodelcanbee xpress
    edmor ecompact
    lyas
    P+c
    AR-a iPA/
    N (
    9-39
    )

    Whenani nnovatio
    ni sint
    roduc e
    da ndthea dopt
    erpopulat
    ioni sze
    ro,theonly
    s
    our
    ceofa dopt
    ionwi l
    lbee xterna
    linf
    luence
    ss uchasadver
    tlS
    lng.Theadvert
    isl
    ng
    e
    fectwillbelargestatt
    hes ta
    rtofthedifusionproce
    s sa
    nds tea
    dil
    ydimi ni
    shas
    t
    hepoolofpotenti
    aladopte
    r sisdepl
    eted.

    PhaseSpaceof的eBassDi
    甘f
    usi
    onMode目
    Liket hel ogl St
    icgrowt hmode l, t
    heBa ssmode lha stwos t
    ocks .
    Howe ve r,be cause
    P+A -N, Onlyoneoft hes estocksi sindepe nde nt,a ndthemode lisac t
    ua llyfirst
    l
    order.Us ingt hef acttha tP - N - A,e xpr e sse qua t
    ion( 9-39)i nt ermsoft he
    adopte rpo pulat
    ionA.Dr a wt hepha seplotf ort hemode l(ag raphs howi ngt he
    adoptionr a teasaf unctionoft hea do pterpopul a t
    ion) ADrawt hepha sepl otfort hree
    conditions :( i
    )a dverti
    s i
    nge fe cti
    ve nessisz e roa nda llado pti
    onoc c urst hrough
    wo rdofmout h,(i)wor
    i dofmout hisz ero(ci-0)a nda lladoptionoc cur sthrough
    adve r
    tising,a nd( i
    ii)botha dvertisi
    nga ndwor dofmout hc ontri
    butetoa dopt i
    on･
    Wi thoutus l
    ngS imul ation,us ethepha s epl ottos ket
    c hthebe haviorove rtime
    ofthea dopt erpopul a
    tion, potentiala dopterpo pul ation,anda doptionr atef ore ach
    ofthet hr eec asesabove. Howdoe sa dvert
    lSlnga lterthepol ntatWhi chl oopdom-
    inances hif tsfrom posiivet
    t one gati
    vef e
    edba c k?Howdoesa dverti
    slnga f
    fe c
    tt he
    timlng,S ymme tr
    y,a ndot hera spect soft hedyna mi csc ompa redt ot hel ogl St
    ic
    mode l?
    334 P
    art
    III Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    Af t
    eryouhavea ns
    weredt
    hes
    equest
    ions,buildandsimula
    tethemodeltotes
    t
    yourint
    uit
    ion.Runthemodelf
    ort
    hethr
    eec a
    sesa bove,a
    ndtryothercombi
    nati
    ons
    ofparameter
    stoexplor
    ethera
    ngeofbe
    ha vi
    orsthemode lcangenera
    te.

    9.
    3.4 Behavi
    oroft
    heBassMode一
    TheBa ssmode ls olve st hes ta rtuppr obl e m oft hel ogi st
    ici nnova tiondi f fusi
    on
    mode lbe ca uset hea dopt ionr atef rom a dve rti
    singdoe snotde pe ndont hea do pter
    popul a tion. Whe nt hei nnova tiono rne wpr oduc ti sint roduc ed,t hea dopt lOnr ate
    c ons istse nt i
    r elyofpe o plewhol e ane da boutt hei nnova t
    ionf rome xterna lsour ces
    ofi nf o-a tions ucha sa dve rt
    ising. Ast hepoolofpot e
    nt iala dopt ersde c line swhi le
    thea dopt erpo pula ti
    ong r ows ,thec ont r ibut i
    onofa dve rtisingt Othet ota la dopt i
    on
    ra tefa llswhi let hec ont ribut ionofwor dofmout hr ises. Soon, wo rdofmout hdom-
    ina tes,a ndt hedi ml Sionpr oc esspl a ysouta sint hel ogl Sticdi 乱s ionmode l.
    Asa ne xa mpl e,c ons ide ra ga int heVAX ll / 750s alesda ta( Figur e9- 1 4).To
    mode lt heVAXpr oduc tl ifec yc lewi tht hel ogi sticdi ffus ionmode li twa sne ces-
    sa ryt os tartt hes imul atio na ftert hepr oduc twa si ntroduc ed,S ot ha tt he rewa sa
    nonz er oi ns talledba se. Ac los el ooka tFi gure9- 15S howst ha tt hepur el oglStic
    mode lunde restima tess ale sdur ingt hef irs tye ara ndaha l
    f, andove re st
    ima tess ales
    att hepea k,c ons istentwi tht hehypot hes istha ti nitia
    la do ptlOnSWe reS timul at
    e d
    notbywo rdofmout ho rothe rpos itivef ee dba cksbutbye xtena
    r lsour ce sofa wa re-
    nes ss uc ha sma rke t
    inge ffor t.Fi gur e91 19C ompa rest hebe havi oroft heBa ss
    mode ltot hel ogl Sticdi ffus ionmode landt heVAXs alesda ta. Asi nt hes imul ati
    on
    oft hel ogl Sticmode l,thet otalpopul a ti
    onNi sa ss ume dt obe7600uni ts.Adve rt
    is-
    1nge fe c ti
    ve nes s,a, andthenumbe rofc ont a
    c t
    sr e sultingl na dopt 10 nf romwor dof
    mout h, c i,we ree stima t
    edbyr egr es siont obe0. 01 1pe rye ara nd1 .33pe rye ar,re-
    spe ctive ly.Thec ont ri
    but ionofs a l
    e sf rom a dve rtisingt Otot als alesi ss ma llafter
    thef irs tye ar,a sse eni nthebot tompa ne lofFi gur e9- 19.Ne ve rt
    he le s
    s ,thi smod-
    es tcha ngei nt hef ee dba cks truc tureoft hedi 軌l Si onpr oc e ssimpr ove st hemode l's
    abi li
    tyt of itthes al
    esda ta ,bot hi nt hef irs t2ye arsa nda tt hepe a k. Mos timpor t
    ant,
    thei nc lus ionoft hea dve rtlSlnge f
    f ec ts ol vest hes tartuppr obl em oft hel oglStic
    mode l.
    TheBa ssmode li sas igni fica nta ndus efule xte nsionoft heba sicl oglStic
    mode lofi nnova t
    iondi 軌s ion･Themode lits
    e lf,orva riantsofi t,i sbr oa dl ya p-
    plic ablet oawi der angeofdi ffus iona ndgr owt hphe nome na,a ndt herei sal a
    rge
    li
    t eratur ea ppl yi ngt heBa ssmode la ndr e latedmode lst oi nnova t
    io nd i軌s iona nd
    sle
    a sofne wpr oduc ts( see ,e.g. ,Ma ha j
    a n, Mul ler,a ndBa ss1 990a ndPa rke r1 994
    forr evi e ws ).

    Cr
    岳t蔓
    qui
    ngt
    heBassDi
    ff
    usi
    onModel
    Eve nthoughtheBa ssmode loftenworkswe ll
    , t
    hemode li
    nvokesanumbe rofre-
    stri
    cti
    vea ss
    umptlOnS .Lis
    ta sma nyassumptionsOft heBas
    smode lasyoucan.In-
    cludea ss
    umptlOnSe xplici
    tint heformulat
    ionoft hemode la
    nda ss
    umpt l
    OnSthat
    areonlyimplici
    t,espe ci
    all
    yt hoseconcer
    nlnga ggregat
    iona
    ndthemode lboundary
    (part
    icula
    rlyeff
    ectsa ndfeedba cksomitt
    edfromt hemode l
    ).
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    ISh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    ic
    m s
    ,In
    nov
    ati
    onDi
    fus
    io
    n,a
    ndt
    heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s335

    FIGURE9 -19 8000

    ノ
    ミ
    〇
    TheBass

    二 喜l
    ∴
    こ
    p
    ＼
    andl ogisti
    c 6000
    di
    ffusionmodel s
    L
    ogi
    st
    i S
    cMo s
    sMo
    de.
    '
    compar edto の
    actua一 VAXsales t
    ≡ 4000
    =1 Cu
    mul
    at
    iv
    eSa
    les

    2000

    0
    1981 1983 1984 1986 1988

    i
    . 2000
    (
    q
    >
    ･
    l
    i
    =
    :
    F
    u
    )
    d
    J

    .
    t
    =⊂
    000000

    ⊃ 1000

    1983 1984 1986 1988


    2
    J
    t
    a2^
    [S
    lE
    un

    ･l

    Ex
    ten
    din
    g帥eBa
    ssMode一
    Asnot eda bove,theBas smode lassumesthetotalsizeofthema rket(t
    otalpopul
    a
    -

    tion,N)i scons t
    ant Jnge ner a
    l,thepopulat
    ionofac ommuni tyort henumbe rof
    hous e
    holdsi nama rketgrowsove rti
    met hr
    oughbi r
    ths,deat
    hs,a ndmlgrati
    on.In
    thecont e
    xtofi nnova ti
    onswi thve r
    yshortli
    fecyc les(e.
    g.,t
    helatestgenerat
    ionof
    videoga mes )orac utediseasessuchasmeas les
    ,thea ssumpti
    onofc onst
    antpopu-
    lati
    oni sreasonable.Butf orinnovaionsordi
    t se
    as eswhos el
    ifecyc l
    esextendover
    ma nyyea rs(e.g.
    ,thedi ff
    us i
    onofca blet
    elevisi
    onort heAI DSe pidemic),popul
    a-
    tiongrowt hcanbes igni
    ficant･
    336 P
    artI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    A.Re is
    v et heBas smode lt oi nc or por at egr owt hi nt hes izeoft he
    totalmar ke t.
    As sumet het ota lpo pul a tions iz ei sas toc ki nc r
    e ase dbyaNe tPopul a t
    ion
    Increas eRa tet ha ta ggr e ga tesbi rths, de a
    ths ,a ndne tmi gra t
    ion( itise asy ,but
    notne c essa ry,tor epr ese nte xpl ici
    tbi rth,de a t
    h,a ndne tmi gr at
    ionr ates
    sepa rately;S eec ha pte r1 2) .TheNe tPo pul ationI nc reas eRa teisgi ve nbyt he
    totalpo pul ationa ndt heFr act iona lNe tlnc re aseRa te, whi c hc anbea ssume d
    cons tant. Nowyoumus tde cidehowt hei ncr easei npopul ationi spa rti
    tione d
    betwe e npot e ntia la do pte rsa nda do pter s
    . Thes impl esta ssumpt lOni st ha tall
    increas esi npopul ations iz ea ddt othepoolofpot ent i
    a ladopt e
    r s･Re c alli
    ng
    thata l
    lpe opl eorho us ehol dsi nt hepopul ationa r ee ithe rpot entia lora c t
    ua l
    adopt ers, reformul atethepot e ntiala do pterpo pul ationa sP-N IA･ Eve n
    thought hepot e ntiala dopt e rpopul ationi sas tock, itisf ullyde t emi nedby
    thetota lpo pul a tiona nda dopt e rpo pul ationa nds oc a nber e prese nteda san
    auxiliaryva riabl e.
    Appl yyoure xte nde dmode ltot hec abl et elevi sioni nd us t
    ry. Theuni t
    ofa dopt ionf orc a blet ele vi sioni snott hei ndi vidua l, buthous ehol ds( and
    possiblybus ines ses ).Thec abl et elevi si
    oni ndus tryi nt heUSbe ga nint he
    early1 950S .Att ha ttimet henumbe rofhous ehol dswa sa bout40mi lli
    on.
    Byt hel a te1 990S ,the r ewe rene arl
    y1 00mi llionhous eholds ,ana ve rage
    hous ehol df or ma t
    iongr owt hr a teofa bo ut1 .9%/ ye ar.Se l
    ec tpa rame t
    e rsfor
    adve rt
    islnge fe ctive nes sa ndwor dofmo utht ha ta ppr oxima telyr eplica t
    et he
    patternofc a blea dopt ion( Fi gur e9- 1 6).Iti snotne ce ssaryt oma tcht heda t
    a
    exac t
    ly;a na ppr oxi ma tef iti ss ufficient ･Ex plor et hes ensitivityOft hemode l
    tod ife rentpopul a t
    iongr owt hr ates. Wha tist hei mpa ctofva ri abl e
    popul ations iz eont hedyna mi cs ?
    B.Re spons eoft otl mar
    a ke ts i z
    etopme e.
    Inmos tma rkets,Onlyaf ra ctionoft het otalpopulationwi l
    le vera doptane w
    inno va t
    ion. The丘' ac
    tionoft hepopul ationthatmi ghte vera doptt ypl Call
    y
    de pendsont hebe nefitsoft heinnova tionr ela
    tivetoi tscos t(it
    spr iceanda ny
    othe ra ssociatedcosts,e.g.,s witchingc os ts
    ,cos t
    sofc ompl eme nta rya s
    sets
    ,
    trainingc ost
    s,e t
    c.;se
    eRoge rs1995) .Innova t
    ionsa renots tati
    c:t he i
    r
    be nef i
    tso洗e ni ncreas
    eove rt i
    mea sr ese a
    rcha ndpr oductde velopme ntlead
    toi mpr ove me ntsinfeature s, f
    unc t
    iona l
    i t
    y,qua l
    it
    y,a ndot he rattri
    but esof
    prod uc ta t
    tr
    a ct
    iveness.Si mi larl
    y,thepr lCeO fne wpr oduc tsof t
    e nf all
    s
    slgnif i
    ca ntl
    yove rtimet hr oughl earnlngC urves,scalee c
    onomi e s,a ndother
    fee dbac ks(Seec hapter1 0) ･Modi fythemode lyo ude velope dinpa r
    tAt o
    inc l
    udet hee fectofpr oduc tprleO
    C nf-
    hes i
    zeoft hepot entiala dopt erpooh
    As sumet hepot entia
    la do pte rpopula t
    ioni saf ract
    iono ft het ot
    a lpo pulati
    on,
    lesst hec urrentnumbe rofa dopters:
    P=Fr
    act
    ionWi
    ll
    ingt
    oAdo
    pt*N-A (
    9-4
    0)
    where
    ,ingener
    al,t
    heFr ct
    a onWi
    i ll
    ingtoAdoptde
    pendsontheover
    all
    at
    tr
    acive
    t nes
    softheinnovat
    iono
    rproduct(
    it
    sbenef
    it
    srel
    ati
    vetocost
    s):
    Fr
    act
    io
    nWi
    ll
    ingt
    oAdo
    pt-i
    (In
    nova
    ti
    onAt
    tr
    act
    ive
    nes
    s) (
    9-41
    )
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    -Sh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    mic
    s,Ⅰ
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    軌lS
    io
    n,a
    ndt
    heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s337

    Toke ept hemode lsimpl e,assumet ha ttheonl yfea t


    ur eoft hei nnova tionthat
    va ri
    e si sth epr l
    Ce. As i
    mpl eass umpt lOni st hatthede ma ndc ur vefort he
    pr oduc tl slinear. Fort hec a s
    eofc abl ete l
    e visi
    on,a ssumet ha tde ma ndi sa
    linea rfunc t i
    onoft hemont hlyc ost( ignor eins t
    allat
    ionc harge s)･Si
    nc enea rl
    y
    allUShous eholdsha vet elevision,a ssumet heFr ac ti
    onWi llingt oAdo pt
    woul dbe1 00% whe nc ablei sf reea ndwoul dfalltoz er oift hec ostwe re
    $200 /mont h.
    Tbt e stthemode l,a ss
    umepr lCei sexoge nous .First,runt hemode lwith
    pr ic
    ec ons tantata ninitialva l
    ueof$1 00/mont h. Tof oc usont hedyna micsof
    thepr i
    c ee ffecta lone, assumet heFr actiona lNe tInc reaseRa teforthet otal
    po pul ationi sz e
    r o.Si ncepr lCei sc ons ta
    nt ,thetot a
    lpopul ations houl dbe
    co nstant ,andt hemode lreduc est ot heor lglnalBa s sformul a ti
    on.Si mul ate
    yourmode ltoche cktha titbe ha vesa ppr opr l
    atelywhe nt hepnc eisc ons t
    ant.
    Nowt e s
    tthei mpa ctofva ryingPr ic
    e sbya ssumi ngt hepr i
    c eOfc able
    fallsove rtime. Fi rst,testthee ff ec
    tofas udde nd ropl nPr l
    Ce, tO,Say,
    $25 /mont h. Tryt hepr i
    c edr opa tdi fe re
    ntpo intsint hedi ffusionl i
    fec yc l
    e.
    C.I
    syo
    urmo
    delr
    obus
    t?
    Typi cally,pnc esf allove rt hel if
    ec yc l
    eofas uc ces s
    fulne wpr oduc tor
    innova tion. Butmode lsmus tber obus ta ndbe ha vea ppr oprlat
    e l
    yunde r
    allpot entialc ircums t
    anc es, notonl yt hehi storica lore xpe ct
    e dbe ha vior.
    Ac ommona ndi mpor tantwa yt ot estf orr obus tnes sisthee xtremec ondi -
    tionst est(cha pt er21 ).Ina ne xtremec ondi t
    ionst est,ani nputt oamode lis
    as sume dtos udde nl yta keone xtremeva lues･ Themode lmus tc ontinuet o
    be ha vea pp ropr latelye ve ni ft ha text remeva luewi l
    lne vera ri
    sei nr e al
    ity.
    Fo re xa mpl e,s udde nlydes troyl nga llinve ntoryl namode lofama nu-
    fac turlngf im mus
    r tforc ethes hipme ntra teimme diatelyt ozero. Ifs hipme nt
    s
    donotf a l
    ltoz reo, themode ler( andc li
    ent )imme diatelyknowt he r
    ei saba si
    c
    la
    f wi nt hemode l. Asa ne xtr emec ondi t
    io nst estinyourmode l,s udde nly
    raiset hepr icet oave ryl argenumbe r( suc ha s$1mi ll
    ionpe rmont h)･ If
    pr l
    C eSWe retOr iset hatmuc h,wha tmus tha ppe nt ot hepot entiala dopt er
    po pul ation?Tbt hepopul ationofs ubs cribe r
    s ?impl eme ntthepr lC erisea t
    va riouspo lntSi nt hel i
    fT
    ec yc le. Doe syourmode lbe ha vea ppropr lately?Wha t
    probl e morpr oble msa rer evea ledbyt het est?Pr o pose,impl eme nt,andt est
    revl sionst hatc orrecta nypr obl emsyoui de ntify.
    D｡Interactionofdiffusionandt hele arningC ur ve.
    Thepr icesOfma nyne wpr oduc t
    sa nds ervicesf allove rti
    mea slearnlng,
    scaleeconomi es
    ,a ndot here ff
    ectslowe rcostsa nda scompe tt
    iionintensifi
    es.
    Ma kethep roductpr i
    c earter.
    doge r
    10-t
    isPa r
    tOft hemode lstr
    l
    LiCt
    ureby
    incorporat
    lngal earnlngC urve.Le aml ngOre xpe r
    ie ncecurvesc apturethe
    wa ylnWhi chproduc er s
    ,di s
    tri
    butors ,andot he rsint hevaluec hainlearnto
    producea tlowerc ostsast heyga l
    ne xperienc e.Us ua l
    lycostsarea ssumed
    tofallascumul a
    tivee xpe rie
    ncewi tht hepr oduc tors er
    vicegrows ･I n
    ama nufa c
    turl
    ngS ettl
    ng, Cumul ati
    vee xperi
    e nc ei sus uall
    ypr oxiedby
    cumul at
    iveproduc ti
    on. Inas ervicei ndustry,c umul ati
    vee xperiencemi ght
    bette
    rber eprese
    nte da sde pendingont hec umul ativen umbe roft ransact
    ions
    3
    38 P
    arHI T
    t h
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    andwi lldependont hea dopterpopulationa ndt henumbe roft r


    a nsact
    ions
    eacha doptergenerat
    espe rtimepe r
    iod. Typic al
    ly,uni
    tc ostsfal
    lbyaf ixed
    percentagewithe ver
    ydoubl i
    ngofe xper i
    enc e.Costreduc t
    ionso fl o啄 to
    30% pe rdoubli
    ngofc umula t
    iveexperienc eha vebeendoc ume ntedi nawi de
    rangeofi ndust
    ries(se
    e ,
    e･g"Te pli
    tz1 991 ;Gr uber1992; Argotea ndEppl e
    1990)･ Toincor
    por a
    teal earningcurveint oyouri nnovationdiffusionmode l,
    fi
    rstassumet hatanyc ostreducti
    onsa refullypa ssedint
    opr i
    ce:
    Pr
    ice-I
    nit
    ial
    Pri
    ce*Ef
    fec
    tofLe
    arn
    lngO
    nPr
    ice

    Cu
    mul
    at
    iveEx
    per
    ien
    ce
    Ef
    fec
    tofLe
    arn
    lngO
    nPr
    ice-

    Cumu
    lat
    iveEx
    per
    ien
    ce-I
    NTEGRAL(Ado
    pti
    onRat
    e,
    I
    nit
    ia
    lCumula
    ti
    veEx
    peri
    enc
    e)
    Thee xpone ntcde t
    e rmi ne shows trongt hel ea rningC urvei sa nds houl d
    bene ga ti
    ve( cos tsfalla sc umul a tivee xpe r i
    enc egr ows ) .Tbr epr es
    e nta
    leaml ngC urvei nwhi c hc ostsf a ll30% f ore achdoubl i
    ngofe xpe rienc e,
    setc-l og2 (0.7)- -0. 51.12
    Te s tyourmode lf orahypot he ticalma nuf act
    ur ingf irmt ha tintroduc esa
    newc ons ume rdur ablepr oduc tint heye ar2000. Thepr oduc tha shighma r
    ket
    potent ial. Sett hef ollowl ngpa rame ters :As sumet ha tloo鞄 oft het ota l
    popul a t
    ionof1 00mi lli
    onho us ehol dswi l
    lpur cha set hepr oduc tifiti sf ree
    butt ha tde ma ndf allstoz eroi ft hepr icei s$2500pe runi t.Se ttheini ti
    a l
    pri
    c et o$2000 /
    ni
    u t,ands eti nitiale xpe riencet o1 0mi llionuni ts(rele
    f c ing
    t
    leani ngga i
    ne donpr iorpr oduc tsa ndpr ototype s). Re s
    e arc honc ons ume r
    durabl ess howst ypi calpr oduc tlifec yc l
    e sla s
    tfrom a boutaye artoa slong
    as20ye a rsormor e( Pa rker1 994) ,de pe ndingont hec os t,be ne fi
    ts,size,
    tr
    ialabi lit
    y,nove lt
    y,a ndot he ra tt
    r ibute soft hepr oduc t,a longwi t
    ht her ol eof
    compl eme nta rya ssetsa ndot he ri nfr astructure( comput e rsar en'tva luabl e
    withouts oftwa re;at e levisioni sus elesswi t
    houtpr ogr amml ngpe oplewa ntto
    wa t
    c ha ndne two r
    ksorc ableope ra torstodi st
    ribut eit)AToca pturet her a nge,
    definet hef ollowi ngt wos cena riosf ort hedi ffusionoft hepr oduc t:aSl ow
    scena rio, inwhi c hthepr oduc toft hec onta ctratea nda dopt ionf ractio n( ci)
    is1.0/ye ar,andaFas tsc ena rio, inwhi cht hepr oduc toft hec ont ac
    tr atea nd
    adopt ionf ractionc ii s3. 0/ye ar.As sumef orbot hs c ena
    ri ost ha t1% oft he
    potent iala dopt e rpoolwi l
    lpur cha s ea st her esultofa dve rtisi
    ngpe rye ar.

    12
    Foralear
    ningCur
    veWh e
    rec
    ost
    sCfal
    lbyafi
    xedf
    rac
    ti
    onp
    erd
    oub
    li
    ngo
    fex
    per
    ie
    nceE,
    cos
    ts
    a
    reglV
    enby
    C-Co (E/Eo
    )C.
    WhenEh a
    sd ou
    b l
    ed,c
    ostsh a
    vef
    anenb
    yafrac
    ti
    onf,s
    o
    (1- f
    )Co-Co (
    2Eo
    侶 o)c

    Or
    c-ln(
    1-f )
    /ln
    (2)-1og21-f
    ( )A
    Forale
    arni
    ngCu
    rVeit
    w hf-0 .
    30,
    C-0 .
    514
    6.Sincef
    ,thefr
    act
    io
    nalc
    ostr
    educ
    ti
    onperdou
    bli
    ng
    ofexp
    eri
    ence
    ,hasamorein
    tui
    ti
    veme a
    nln
    gthantheex
    ponentc,
    iti
    scon
    veni
    entt
    ofo
    rmu l
    at
    ecin
    t
    h emode
    lasacompute
    dconst
    ant
    ,C -ln1I f
    ( )n
    n(2)andth
    enspec
    if
    ytheco
    str
    educ
    ti
    o nf
    rac
    ti
    onf
    asacons
    ta
    nt.
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    -Sh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    mic
    s,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    fus
    io
    n,a
    ndt
    heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s33
    9

    Be fbrer unnl ngyourmode l,dr awac ausaldiagr ams howi ngt hef ee dba ck
    structurecre atedbyt hel earni
    ngC urveandhowi tint er
    a ctswi tht hes tructure
    ofdi fus on.Wi
    i thouts imul ati
    on ,sketchthedyna mi csyo ue xpe ctforthe
    fracti
    onoft hema rketwi lli
    ngtoa dopt,t
    hepot entia
    la do pterpo pulati
    on,
    adopt ionrate ,anda dopte rpopul at
    ion.Alsoske t
    c hthepa t
    hofr evenue syou
    expe ct.Assumet hepr oduc tispur chased,notleased,a ndi gnor erevenue s
    thatma yder ivef rom s aleo fse
    r vicesora f
    ter
    ma rketpr oduc tstot hea do pters
    (revenuede pe ndsonl yont hea dopt i
    onr at
    eandpr i
    c e)･
    Af terske tchingt hedyna micsyoue xpect,runthemode lf orbot ht heFa s
    t
    andSl ow ca ses .Des cribet hedyna mics,andc ompa retoyouri ntui
    tivees ti
    -
    ma tes.Expe rime ntwih di
    t fe r
    ents tr
    engthsforthel earningC urver elat
    ivet ot he
    difus ionpr oc ess .Howdodi ff
    us ionproc e
    ssesa ndl eani
    r ngC urvesi nte ra
    c tto
    determl net hegr owt hofane w pr oduct?Wha ta r
    et hei mpl icationsofve ry
    rapiddi 仇l Sionf orr eve nues,c apacit
    ypl anning,a ndnew pr oduc tde velop-
    me nt?Wha ti mpl i
    c at
    ionsf orstrategy(prici
    ng,c apa ci
    tya c quis i
    tion,a ndma r
    -
    keting)doyoudr a
    w?

    9.
    3.5 FadandFashi
    on:
    Mode軸 g竜
    heAbamd⑳mmem昔o菅anE
    FW⑳Va竜
    iom
    TheBa ssdi ffus i
    onmode lisa na logoust ot heSImode lofc hroni ci nfe ction. Eve ry-
    onee ve ntua llya dopt st hepr oduc ta nda dopt ersne ve ra bandont hei nnova t
    ionor
    discont inueus eoft hepr oduc t.The sea s sumpt 10nSa rea ppr o
    pr iatef ors omei nno-
    vationsbutdonota ppl yt ot hehugec ate goryoff ashionsa ndf ads ･
    Af ad, byde finition, invol ve st hete mpor arya dopt i
    onofane wi de ao rproduc t
    ,
    followe dbyi tsa bandonme nt .I naf ad,t hosewhoa dopts oone rorl ater( usua lly
    soone r)di scontinuet he i
    rus eoft hepr oduc ta ndnol onge rge ne ratewor dofmout h
    thatmi ghtl ea dt ofur the ra dopt ion. Thoug hma nyba byboome rswor eNe hruja ck-
    etso rgr a nnydr essesi nt he1 960S , polye sterl e
    isures ui t
    so rr ainbow- col oredpl at-
    forms hoesi nt he1 970S ,a ndpowe rsui tswi thye llowt i
    esors houl de rpa dsint he
    198 0S,f ewa r es eenwe arlngt he mt oda y･13Fa da ndf ashiona r eofc our sec om on
    inthea ppa r
    e lind ustrybuta l s
    oa ris einne arlye veryot he rdoma i
    n, fromhomef ur-
    nishings , vac ationde stina ti
    ons , cuis i
    nes ,a ut
    omobi les, andi nve stme nt stos tylesi n
    thea rtsa ndmus i
    c,a c ade mi ct he o riesint hes cience sandhuma nities ,a ndho tne w
    buz zwor dsa ndg urusi nc or por ates t
    rategy , o
    r ganizationa lthe ory,a ndma nageme nt
    cons ulting.
    TheBa ssmode lc annotc a ptur ethedyna mi csoff adsi npa rtbe c aus ea dopt ers
    neve rdi sc ontinuet he irus eoft hei nnova t
    ion. Fur t
    he r,be caus ethec ont actra t
    ea nd
    adopt ionf ractiona rec ons t
    a nt,t hee arl
    i esta dopter sareJ us ta Slike lyt oi nf ectpo-
    tentiala dopt ersa sthos ewhoj us tpur c ha sedt hepr oduc t･Forma nyI nnova tions
    (notonl yf ads ),howe ve r, pe opl e'spr ope ns it
    yt oge ne ratewor dofmout h, andt heir
    enthus ias ma ndpe r
    s ua sive ne ss ,va ryove rt i
    me. Us ually, wor dofmout hde c a
    ysa s
    peopl ebe comeha bitua te dt ot hei nnova ti
    on･ Thos ewhoha ver ece ntlye mbr ace da

    1
    3Thef
    ash
    ioni
    ndu
    str
    yfre
    quen
    tl
    yrei
    nt
    ro
    duce
    sol
    dfa
    shi
    ons
    ITh
    efas
    hio
    nsoft
    he70swer
    e
    r
    ecy
    cle
    dint
    helat
    e90S
    ,in
    clu
    din
    gp l
    at
    fo
    rmsho
    esan
    dbel
    l
    bot
    toms
    ,bu
    tth
    ankf
    ull
    yno
    tp o
    lye
    st
    er
    l
    ei
    sur
    esui
    ts
    .
    34
    0 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    ne wi de ao rpur cha sedane wi tema remuc hmor el ike lyt ot a lka bouti tt hant hos e
    whoha vel ongs incea do pt edt hei nnova tione ve ni fthe yc ont inuet ous ei t.Indoor
    plumbi ngc a nha rdlybec ons ide redapa s slngf a d, ye tpe opl edonotr ushoutt ote l
    l
    he
    t irf riendshowwonde rfulflus ht oi l
    e tsa re.
    Int he1 980sSe l
    c howa ndRi ght ers oldt ensofmi ll
    ionsofc o pleSOft hega me
    Tr ivia lPur s uit .Sa lesboome da sTr ivia lPur sui tbe ca meoneoft hehot testpr oduc ts
    int het oya ndga mema rke t.Theboom wa sf edl arge lybywor dofmout ha nds o-
    c i
    a le xpos urea spe opl epl aye dita tt hehome soft he irfr iends .Af teraf ewyea rs,
    howe ve r,sa less l
    umpe d. Muc hoft hede clinec a nbea ttribut edt ot hef a mi l
    iarma r-
    ke ts atur ationl oop:t hega mewa ss os uc ce ssfult hec ompa nyde pl ete dt hepoolof
    pe opl ewhoha dnotye tpur c ha sedac opy. Butt hef adingnove ltyoft hega mewa s
    als oaf ac t
    or . Thepopul ationofa dopt ersi ss til
    ll a rgei nt hes e nset ha tma nype opl e
    stillownac opyo fTr i
    vi alPur suit. Howe ve r,mos toft hes ec opl e Sa rei na t
    t i
    csa nd
    clos ets .Thepo pul a
    tionofa ctivea dopt e rs, thos ewhos tillpl a yt hega mea ndge n-
    era tewo rdofmout hc ont a c
    tswi thot he rs, iss ma ll.
    Di sc ont inua t
    i onofus ea ndt hede c ayofwor dofmout hc ane a silybei nc orpo-
    rate di nt hei nnova t
    iondi fus
    f ionf ra me wor kbydi sa ggre ga tlngt hea do pt erpopul a-
    tioni nt odi ffe rentc a t
    e gorie s,e ac hr epr e se ntlngdi fe rentde gr eesofus ea nd
    pr ope ns iti
    e st oge ne ratewor dofmout h. Thes impl este xt ens ionoft hemode list o
    divi det het ot ala dopt erpopul ati
    oni ntot woc a tegor i
    es ,Ac tiveAdopt e r
    sa ndFor -
    me rAdo pte rs. Thed iscont i
    nua ti
    onr ate( ther atea twhi cha ctivea do pter sbe come
    for me ra do pt ers )de pe ndsont hea ve ra gedur ationofus ef ort hei nnova t
    ion( the
    simpl esta s sumpt ioni stha tt hedi sc ont inua ti
    onr atei saf irs t
    - orde rpr oc es s).Wor d
    ofmout ha ndhe nc ethea dopt ionr atewoul dbege ne rate donl ybyt hepopul at
    ion
    ofa ctivea dopt ers .
    Ther evi se dmode li sa na logoust ot heSI Re pi de mi cmode l.Nowonl ya ct
    ive
    adopt ers( ana logo ust ot hei nfec tiouspopul ation)ge ne ra tewor dofmout ht ha t
    mi ghti nduc ea ddi ti
    ona la dopt ion. For me ra do pt ersa rea na logoust ot hepopul at
    ion
    ofr e cove r
    e di ndi vidua ls.Ha vingpur c ha se dt hepr oduc tbutnol onge ra c ti
    ve lyus -
    1ngi t,t hef or
    me ra dopt ersa renol onge ri nf ec tioust oot he r sa nda rea lsoi mmune
    tor e infe ction-e xpos ur et oa dve r tlSlngOrWOr dofmout hf rom a ctivea dopt ers
    won' ti nduc ea gingba byboome rst obuya not he rle isures uit･14
    Theke yi ns i
    g htf rom t heSI Re pi de i cmo
    m de li st hec onc eptoft het l
    PPl ng
    pol nt: ex pos ur et Oi nfec t
    iousi ndi vidua lswi llnotpr oduc ea ne pide mi ci fpe oplere -
    cove ra ndde ve lopI mmuni t
    yf a s
    te rt ha nt he yc a ni nfe ctot he r s.Si mi larly,ne wi n-
    nova tionsmi ghtf ailt ot akehol de ve ni ft he yge ne rat
    epos it
    ivewor dofmout h
    be caus ea c tivea dopt ersdi scont inueus a gef as t
    e rt ha nt he ype rs ua deot he rst o
    adopt .Thoughadi stresslngl yl argenumbe rofbi z arref a shionsa ndus elesspr od-
    uc tsa ree mbr ac edbyea ge rc ons ume rswhomi ndl es sl
    ya llowma rke terst oma nlp-
    ula t
    et he i
    rtas tes ,manymo r
    ef ailt ot akehol d.
    Int heSI Rmodel,t het ippl ngpoi nti sdefi ne dbyar epr oduc tionr ateofone.
    Ther e produc tio nrat ei sthenumbe rofne wc asesg ene ratedbye a chi nf ec ti
    vepr i
    or

    14
    Asint
    heext
    ende
    dSIRmo del
    sd e
    vel
    op e
    dinse
    ctl
    On9･
    2,t
    hepo
    pula
    ti
    onofad
    opt
    erscoul
    dbe
    d
    isag
    gre
    gat
    edfu
    rt
    her,
    fore
    x a
    mp l
    e,i
    ntocohor
    tsofp
    eopl
    ewhoado
    pte
    dthei
    nnova
    ti
    on1,2,...,
    n
    t
    imeper
    iod
    sago
    ,tocap
    tur
    esitu
    ati
    onswhereth
    econt
    actr
    at
    eanda
    dopt
    10
    nfra
    cti
    onde
    caygradua
    ll
    y
    r
    ath
    erth
    aninaf
    ir
    st-
    ord
    erpat
    ter
    n(chapt
    er12).
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    -Sh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:Ep
    ide
    ics
    m ,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    fus
    io
    n,ndt
    a heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s341

    torecover
    ya ndisdef
    inedbyt heproductofthecont ac
    tnumbe r(t
    henumbe rofin-
    fect
    iouscontact
    sgener
    atedbye achinfec
    tivepri
    ort orecovery)a
    ndthepr obabil
    ity
    ofcontact
    ingas us
    cepti
    bleindivi
    dual(equati
    on(9- 26))
    .Us i
    ngtheter
    mi nologyof
    theinnovati
    ondi 軌sionf r
    ame work,ther e
    produc ti
    onr at
    ei st
    heproduc tofthe
    numbe rofpe r
    suas
    ivewor dofmout hc ontact
    sge nerate
    dbye a
    cha c
    tivea dopter
    prl
    OrtOdisconti
    nuat
    ionandt heprobabil
    it
    yofe ncounterlngapotent
    ialadopter:

    c
    i
    d
    (;
    ),1 (
    9-
    45,
    whe r
    eci st hec ontac trate,ii sthea dopt ionf r
    a ct
    ion,di sthea veragedur ationof
    ac t
    iveusef ort hei nnova ti
    on, Pi sthepopul ati
    onofpot entia
    la dopters ,andNi sthe
    totalpopul ati
    on･
    Ifther epr oduc tionr atei sgr eat
    e rt ha none,t hepos i
    ti
    vewor dofmout hf eed-
    ba ckdomi natest hes ystema ndaf adi sbor n･Thef ade ndswhe nt hepoolofpo-
    tentialadopt ersf all
    se nought obr ingt her eproduc t
    ionr atebe low one･I ft he
    reproductionr a teisle sstha none, t
    hepos itivewo r dofmout hloo pisdo mi na tedby
    thene gativef eed ba c
    ksa ndt herewi llbenoe pidemi cofa doption.
    Howe ve r
    ,u nliket heSI Rmode l,a dopt ioni nt heBa s
    si nnova tiond iffusion
    frame worka lsoa r
    isesf rom a dve rtl
    Slnga ndot he re xter
    nalinfluenc es.Int hes i
    m-
    pleBa s
    smode lthee fe cti
    ve nessofa dve r t
    lS l
    ngl Sac onst
    ant, i
    mpl yingt ha tthea d-
    ve rt
    lSl
    ngbudge tisc onstantt hrought ime.Eve nwhe nthes yst
    emi sbe low t he
    tippingpoi nt,e ve r
    yo newi l
    le vent uallya doptt hei nnova t
    ion( thoughi tma yt akea
    ve rylongt ime )i
    Inther ealwor l
    d,a dve rtis
    lngl Se xpe nsivea nddoesnotpe rsistinde 丘ni tely.
    Thema rke ti
    ngpl anf ormos tne wpr oduc tsi nclude sac ert
    aina mo untf oraki ckof f
    adc ampa igna ndot he riniti
    alma rketinge for t
    s･Ifthepr oduc tissucc essful,furthe r
    adve rt
    lSl
    ngCa nbes uppor t
    edo utoft her eve nuest hepr oduc tgene rates･I f
    ,how-
    eve r,t
    hepr oduc tdoe snott akeof f
    , t
    hema rke t
    ingbudge tissoone xha us t
    e da nde x-
    ternalsour ceso fa dopt l
    Onf all
    .Adve rtlSlngl Snote XOge nOuS, aSintheBa ssmode l,
    buti spartoft hef ee dbac kstruc t
    ur eoft hes ys t
    em. The r
    eisat lPPlngPOl ntf ori dea s
    andne wpr oduc tsnol e
    s sthanf ordi se ases .

    Modeh gF
    :ads
    A.Modi f
    ytheBa ssmode l(Oryo urextensionsofitde velopedins ect
    ion9･ 3･4)by
    disaggregatl
    ngt hea do pterpopul ati
    oni ntoa ct
    ivea doptersa ndforme ra do pte
    r s･
    As s
    umewor do fmo uthi sonlyge nerat
    edbya cti
    veado pters.Cali
    brateyourmode l
    torepre s
    entaf ad.As sumet hetotalpopulationis100mi lli
    onho useholds ,t
    ha tthe
    averagedur ati
    onofa ctiveus eis1ye ar,andt hat1%o fthepot e
    ntialado pterswi l
    l
    adopta sther e
    sulto fadve rtlS
    lnge achye ar
    ･ Assumeac ontactrateof1 00pe rpe r
    -
    sonpe rye a
    r.Ru nthemode lforthreecases:as t
    rongwo r
    dofmo uthc as
    ewhe rethe
    adoptionfracti
    oni s0.025, ani nt
    eme
    r di
    a t
    ec asewhe r
    et hea dopti
    onf r
    actioni s0.01,
    andawe akc asewhe r
    et hea doptionfracti
    oni sO･001.Cont rastt
    hebe havi orofthe
    mode li ntheth r
    e ec ases,How doe sthei nc l
    usionofa dopt ionfrom a dver t
    isi
    ng
    causet hebe havioroft hemode ltodifferfrom thepur eSI Rmode l?Ca naf i
    rm
    compe ns a
    teforwe a
    kwo rdofmo uthbyama ss
    iveadve rti
    singC a
    mpa ign?
    342 P
    ar H Th
    tI eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    B.Howd omosto r
    ga nizat
    ionsse ttheiradve
    rti
    si
    ngbudgets?Dr awac a
    usaldi
    al
    gr
    amt hatca
    pturesyou runde rs
    tandingoft hewaylnWhi chadve rt
    isl
    ngisdeter
    mined.Whatfeedbackl oopsa r
    ec rea t
    edbythetypi
    c a
    lbudg e
    tingpr oces
    s?How
    mightt
    heyaff
    ectthedyna mi c
    sofa do pti
    on?Howmi ghtsu
    cha na dvert
    lS
    lngPOli
    cy
    af
    fectt
    henatur
    eo fthetippingPO i
    n tforadopt
    ionofanewpr oduc t
    ?
    C･Wha tot
    herproc
    ess
    esandinf
    ormati
    onsource
    smightc
    ontri
    butetothedynam-
    ic
    so faf
    ad?Devel
    opacausa
    ldia
    g r
    amc a
    ptur
    ingyou
    ridea
    s･Wha taddi
    tiona
    lfeed-
    backloo
    psarecr
    eat
    ed?Howmi ghtt
    heyaff
    ectt
    hedynamics
    ?Gi veexamples.

    93.
    6 Repl
    . acemeniPur
    ehaseも
    TheBa ssdi ffus i
    onmode li sof tende scribe da saf i
    rst-pur cha semode lbe c aus ei t
    do e sno tc apt u resitua tionswhe rethepr od uc tisc o ns ume d,d iscarde d,o rupg ra de d,
    a llo fwhi chl e adt or epe atpur cha ses.
    Onepo pul arwa yt omod e lrepe atpur cha sebe hav iori stoa s
    s umet ha ta do pte rs
    mo veba cki ntot hepo pula tionofpot ent iala d opt erswhe nt he ir丘r stuni ti sdi s-
    c ard e dorc ons ume d. Ther atea twhi cht hepr o duc ti sd iscar deda ndt he refo re血e
    ra tea twhi c hpe opl emovef rom t hea dopt e rpo pul ationt ot hepoo lofpo tent ial
    a do pt er
    sd epe ndso nt henumbe rofa do pter sa ndt hea ve ragel ifeo ft hepr oduc t
    (Fi g ure9- 2 0) .Mode lingr e pla ceme ntd ema ndi nthi sf ashio nisa nalogoust ot he
    los so fimmun ltyt Oadi s e
    a se･ Now, inste ado ff allingt oz ero,hepot
    t ent iala do pte r
    po pul at
    ioni sc onst antlyr eple nishe da sa do pte rsd isca rdt hep rod ucta ndr eent ert he
    ma rke t(Fi gu re9- 21 )
    . Thea do ptionr ate( salesr a t
    ef o rapr od uct)r ises, pe aks ,a nd
    fa ll
    st oar atet ha td epe ndso nt hea ve ragel ifeo fthepr o duc ta ndthepa r ame tersd e -
    te rmi ningt hea do ptionr ate. Di scardsme a nt he rei sa lwa yss omef rac t
    ionoft he
    po pu lat
    ioni nt hepo tentilc
    a us tome rpool .Byva rylngt hepr od uc tlifea nds treng th
    o ft hewo r dofmo ut hf e e
    d ba ck,ther ateofd i
    ffus io n,i nc l
    ud ingt hehe i
    ghtoft he
    sa lespe aka ndt hed ept ho ft hebus twhe nt hema rke tsa turates ,
    c anbeva rie d. The
    mo d elsho wni nFi g ure91 20a ssume saf i
    r st
    10 rd erd isca rdpr oc essbutc a ne a sil
    ybe
    mo d ifie
    dt or epr ese nta nyd istri
    but ionofdi sc ardsa rou ndt hea ve r
    a gepr odu c tlife
    us inghi ghe r-o rderd e
    l ays( cha pte r1 1).
    Be causet hos ed isc ardingt hepr oduc tr ee ntert hepot e ntialcus tome rpool ,the y
    ar et re a
    tede xa c t
    lyl ike丘r st-timebuye r sa ndmus tgot hr oug ha nothe rpr oc e sso f
    be co ml nga wa reOfa ndbe ingpe rs
    ua de dt obuyt hepr od uc tthr ougha dve rtlSlngO r
    wo rdo fmo ut h. Ins omec a sest hel if
    e ti
    meo fthepr oduc tiss ol onga ndt hea ttri-
    but e so fthepr od uc tc ha nges omuc ho ve rthi ss pa nt hatpr l
    O re xperienc ei sl arge ly
    irrel evanta ndr epe atpur cha sede c i
    sionsa rer ea sona b lys i
    mi lart oi nitialpur -
    cha s ed ecisio ns .Bu Hbrmos t prod uc t
    s, t
    hec us tome rha sa lr
    e adyma det hede c isi
    o n
    toc o nti
    nueus lngt hepr oduc ta nds impl ypu rcha se sane wone･ Ins uc hc ase st he
    initia landr epe atpu rcha s
    ede ci
    s i
    onsmus tber e pre sente ds epa rately,a ss ho wni n
    Fi gu re91 2 2.He ret hea dopt ionpr oces si ss epa ra tedf ro mt heno wofpur cha se s.
    Thet otals alesr atei sthes umo finitialpur c ha se sa ndr e pe atpur cha ses. Ther epe at
    pur c ha s
    er a tei sthepr od uc to fthenumbe ro fa do pt ersa ndt hea ve ragenumbe ro f
    uni tspu r
    c ha sedbye a
    c ha do pt erpe rtimepe rio d. Fi gure9- 23s howst ypl C almo de l
    be ha v io
    r.
    Cha
    pte
    r9 S-
    Sha
    pedGr
    owt
    h:Epi
    demi
    cs,
    Inno
    vat
    ionDi
    軌lS
    ion,
    al-
    dth
    eGr
    owt
    hofNe
    wPr
    oduc
    ts343

    GURE9-
    FI 20
    Model
    ingpr
    oduct
    di
    scar
    dand
    repl
    acement
    purchases
    Customersdi
    scar
    d
    t
    heproductwit
    ha
    t
    imeconstant
    gl
    venbyt he
    AveragePr oduct
    Li
    fe,thenretum
    t
    ot hePotential
    erPool
    Adopt ･

    GURE9
    FI -21
    uo!

    Behavioroft
    he
    Ie一d

    Bassmodel wit
    h
    no

    di
    scardsand
    d一

    repur
    chases
    (
    t
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    0
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    %)
    101-

    Showsthebehav-
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    i
    orofthemodel
    2
    5

    i
    nFi e9-
    gur 20
    10t2m

    wit
    hanAver age
    0
    J

    ProductLi
    fe
    l- 5y s,
    ear
    4 5 6
    a-0.
    01,
    C- 100,
    andi-0,
    025.
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    2
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    3 4 5 6
    Year
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    344 Pa
    rtI
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    eDy
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    FIGURE9･ 22
    Model i
    ngrepeat 7 sad
    ' esRat
    e雪
    purchases [ni
    li
    al esi
    Sal fniti
    '
    al R;peat L h e竺讐 :
    一軒.
    -
    .Consumpti
    on
    Total saf
    esconsi st perAdopt
    er Purchase Purchase perAdopt
    er
    Rate Rate
    ofiniti
    aland
    repeatpur chases･
    Eachpot enti
    a一
    adopt erbuysI ni
    tial
    SalesperAdopt er
    unitswhent hey
    fi
    rstadoptt he
    produc tand
    continuest o
    purchaseatt he
    rateofAver age
    Consumpt i
    onper
    Adopt erthereaft
    er .

    FIGURE9- 23
    Behaviorofthe
    repeatpurchase
    model
    Behaviorofmodel 言d
    Oi
    ;I
    t,
    ti
    r
    a
    i J ★■
    †十I
    t★+ c♂ ＼A
    .
    p
    かd
    卯F
    oy
    .I
    ,
    eps
    inFigure9- 22, Adopt
    i e
    onRat .
    プ 汐++ +
    ,

    Withthesame
    paramet ersasi n
    Figure9- 21anda
    tot
    alpopul ati
    onof
    100mi ll
    i
    on,i nit
    ial
    2 3 4 5 6
    purchasesof Ye
    ars
    1unitperper son,
    andr epl
    acement
    purchasesof
    0.2unitsper
    Tt23

    PersonPeryea｢ ･
    ^
    al
    JS
    t2
    t
    正 Sal
    !unu
    t
    O! u
    ZS
    H
    !
    )

    0 1 2
    Ch
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    er9 S
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    NewP
    rod
    uct
    s34
    5

    Model
    声ngt
    heLi
    feCycl
    eofDur
    abi
    ePr
    oduct
    s
    Themode linFi gur e9- 22doe snote xplicitlyr epre sentt hes t
    oc kofpr oduc the ldby
    thea dopterpo pul ation. Re pe atpur cha s
    e sa remode leda sde pe ndi ngont hec urrent
    adopt erpopul ation.Thi sf ormul ationi sa ppr oprlatef ornondur a blec ons uma bles
    suc ha sfood,whe ret hel ifetimeoft hepr oduc ti sve rys hor tr e
    la tivet ot hedi ffu-
    sionpr ocessa ndt hea c
    qul S l
    tlOna ndc ons umpt lOnOrdi sc ar doft hepr oduc tdonot
    ne edt ober epr ese nte dse pa r
    a tely･ Ford ura blepr oduc ts ,howe ver ,itisus ua llyIm-
    po rtanttor epr es entt hes toc ko fpr oduc tandt hedi sca rdr a tee xpl icit
    ly･
    Modi fyt hemode lshowni nFi g ur e9- 22t or epr es entt hea do ptiona ndi ns t
    all
    e d
    ba seofac ons u me rdur abl es uc ha svi deoc a s
    s et
    ter e cor de rs( VCRs ).Yo uma yus e
    eithe rthes i
    mpl eBa ssfo rmul a t
    ionort hee xtende dmode lyoude ve lope di ns ecti
    on
    9.3.4i nc l
    udi ngt hee ffectofpr lCeOnt hes izeoft hema rke tandt hel e arni ngC urve
    (whe nVCRswe rei ntroduc ed, t
    hea ve ragepr icewa sa bout$2000 /
    uni t, butbyt he
    1990st hea ve ra gepr iceha df all
    e nt o$200/ uni t)･
    Thedi sc ardr a tef ordur a
    bl epr oduc tsisof tens t
    r ongl ya gede pe nde ntandi snot
    we lla pproxi ma tedbyaf irst10rde rpr oce ss･Tomode lthei ns tal
    l edba seofVCRs ,
    crea tetwos toc ks ,Ne wVCRsa ndOl dVCRs .Thes tockofnewVCRsi si nc reas
    e d
    byt hePur cha seRa te.AsVCRsa ge,t he ymovei nt ot hes t
    oc kofol dVCRs ･As -
    sumet hea ve rageVCRre ma insne wf or3ye arsa ndt ha tthea gi ngr at
    ei saf ir
    st-
    orde rpr oc ess.Thoughs omene w VCRsdobr eakdowna nda r edi sc ar ded,f or
    simpl i
    c i
    tya ssu met hedi sc ar
    dr ateofne wVCRsi sz ero･ As sumet hea ve ra gelife-
    timeofol dVCRsi s5ye a rs,glVl ngat otala ve ragel ifeof8ye ars ･
    Wha tde termi nest hepur cha ser ate?Fi rst,hous ehol dst ha tha vea dopt edthe
    VCRwi llsee kt or epl acet hos et ha tbr eakdowna nda redi sca rded( ordi sc a rdaus -
    ableuni ttobuyane wonewi thbe tterf eatur es)･Se cond, thos eho use holdswi llbuy
    mor etha nthedi sca rdr atewhe nt henumbe rofVCRst he yc oll
    e ctive lyde si
    ree x一
    cce dst henumbe rthe ya ctua llyha ve( andwi llbuyl es st ha nt hedi scardr ates houl d
    he
    t yf i
    ndt heyha vemo ret hant he yde s i
    re). Thepur c ha ser atei sthe nt hes umoft he
    disc ardr at
    ea nda na djustme ntf ori ns talledba se. Thea dj ustme ntf ort hei ns t
    all
    e d
    ba sei smos ts impl yf om ul ate da sas impl ef i
    r s
    t-or de rne ga t
    ivef eedba ckpr oc ess:
    (
    Desi
    redVCRs-To t
    alVCRs
    )
    Ad
    jus
    tme
    ntf
    orI
    nst
    al
    le
    dBa
    se (
    9-46
    )
    St
    ockAdjus
    tme
    ntTime
    whe r
    et het otalnumbe rofVCRsi sthes umoft hene wa ndoldVCRs t
    ocks ,andthe
    StockAd justme ntTi mer epresentsthea veraget imer equiredforpe opletos hopfor
    andpur c haseaVCR･ Definet hede siredst
    oc kofVCRsa sdependingont henum-
    berofhous eholdstha thavea doptedt heVCRa ndt hea veragenumbe rofVCRsde -
    sir
    edpe rhous ehold.Thec ha l
    lenget oe xtendt heBa ssmode lins ect
    ion9･ 3･4
    int
    roduc e dthenot iont hatthef racti
    onoft hepo pul a
    tionwi ll
    ingtoa doptt heprod-
    uctde pe ndsoni t
    sove ra
    lla tt
    ractiveness,includi ngpr lCe･Thegr owthofma r
    ke t
    s
    forma nyi mpo r
    t a
    ntPr oduc tsinvolve sbothapr oc es
    sofa dopti
    onbya ninc rea
    slng
    fract
    ionoft hepo pul at
    ionandagr adua li
    nc r
    ea sei nthenumbe rofuni tsowne dby
    eachhous eholda sr ealprlCeSf a
    lla nda shouse hol dincomer i
    ses･Whe nt heywe re
    fir
    stintroduc ed,hous eholds" ma dedo"wi t
    hj ustonec ar,phone,TV, andc omput er
    ･
    Aspr lCeSf ell
    ,qua l
    ityr ose,andt hei mportanceoft hesepr oductsindailylifegrew ,
    346 Pa
    rtHI TheDyn
    ami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    thenumbe rpe rho use holdg rew. Bye xpl i


    c it
    lyr epr ese ntlngt henumbe rofuni t sde -
    siredpe ra do pte rthemode lca nr epr es ents it
    ua tionswhe rea dopt ersi nc rease山e
    numbe rofuni tsthe yde sirea st he i
    ri nc omegr ows , aspr lCede cl
    ine s,ora sothe ra t-
    tri
    but esofpr oduc ta ttractive nes si mpr ove. Fornow,a ssumet henumbe rofVCRs
    de si
    redbye a cha do pterhous ehol di sone.
    Not et hati ft hede sireds toc kofVCRsi nc r
    ea sesa bovet hea ctua ls t
    ock( say
    be causepr icesf alls omo rea dopt inghous ehol dsde cidet obuyas econdVCR) ,the
    pur c
    ha ser atewi l
    lr is ea bovet hedi sc ardr atea ndt hes toc kwi lli nc reaseunt il
    thega pl SC l
    os ed. Shoul dt hede s i
    reds tockofVCRsf a l
    l, t
    hepur cha ser atewi l lfall
    be l
    owt hedi scar dr atea ndt hes toc kofVCRswi llgr adua llyf all
    .
    Tes tt her obus tne ssofyourf ormul ationf ort hepur c ha s
    er ate.I mpl e
    me nta n
    extremec ondi tionst estinwhi cht hedes i
    r eds tockofVCRss udde nlyf all
    stoz ero
    froma ni nitials it
    ua tio ninwhi cht hedes i
    r eda nda ctua ls t
    oc ksa ree qua la ndl a r
    ge.
    Modi f
    yyourf or mul ationf ort hepur c ha sera tetoe ns uret ha titbe ha ve sappr opr 1-
    atelye ve ni fthe rea r ema nymor eVCRst ha ndes ired.
    VCRsf ort hehomema rketwe rei ntroduc edbySonyl n1 975.Byt heea r
    ly
    1990sa ppr oxi ma t
    e l
    y8 0%ofUShous ehol dsha da tle astoneVCR. Se lectpa ra me -
    tersforyourmode ltha ta rer oughl ycons istentwi tht hes eda t
    a.Us eyourj udgme nt
    toes t
    ima tetheot he rpa rame t
    e rss ucha st hes tocka dj ustme ntti
    me･ Fors impl icity,
    assumet het ot alnumbe rofhous ehol dsi nt heUSi s1 00mi ll
    iona ndc ons tant.Si m-
    ulatethemode la nddi scus st her e sults. Inpa rticul ar,wha tisthepa tternofa dop-
    ti
    on?Wha ti sthepa tt
    e rnofs a l
    es ?
    Sinc et hei nt roduc t
    ionoft heVCRt hea ver agedur a ti
    onofpr oduc tlifec yc l
    e s
    forcons ume re le ctroni cs,Comput ers ,andma nyot he rpr od uc t
    sha ss hrun k. Lifec y
    -

    clesof jus taf ewye a rso re ve nl essa rec ommon. Simul atet hemode la ssumingt he
    wor dofmo uthf eedba cki st hreet i
    mesa ss tronga stheva lueyous e lectedf orthe
    VCRc ase_ Howl o ngdoe sitnowt akef or80%ofhous ehol dstoa do ptt hepr oduc t ?
    Wha taret hei mpl icationsf ors a l
    e s?Why?Wha tdi fficultiesdos hor tpr oduc tl i
    fe
    cyclespos ef o rf i
    rms ?

    9.
    4 SuMMAPY
    S-Shapedg rowtha r
    isesthroughthenonl ine arint eract
    ionofpos itivea ndne gati
    ve
    feedbackloo ps.Anygr owlngqua ntlyc
    t anbet houghtofa sapo pul ationgr owlng
    ina necologl Ca
    lnichewi thac e
    rtainc arrylngC apaClty.S-Shapedgr owtha ris
    es
    whe nthec a
    r r
    yingCaPaC l
    tyi sf
    ixeda ndwhe nt her earenos lgni
    fica ntde la
    ysi nthe
    react
    ionoft hepopulation'sgrowthr at
    ea st hec arrylngC apaClt
    yl Sa ppr oac
    he d.
    Thestruc t
    ureunder l
    ylngS- s
    ha pedgr owt ha ppl l
    eSt OaWi der a ngeolgr owth
    processe
    s,notonl ypopulationgrowt h.
    The seinc ludethea doptlOna ndd肝us ionof
    newi deas,t
    heg r
    owthofde mandf orne wpr oduc ts,t
    hes preado finf orma t
    ioni na
    communl ty,a ndthespreadofdi seases,inc ludingbi ologlCalpathoge nsandc om-
    putervir
    use s.
    Ch
    apt
    er9 S
    -Sh
    ape
    dGr
    owt
    h:E
    pid
    emi
    cs
    ,I
    nno
    vat
    i
    onDi
    軌si
    on,
    andt
    heGr
    owt
    hof
    NewP
    rod
    tl
    Ct
    S347

    Anumbe rofa naly t


    lCallyt rac t
    ablemode lso fS-sha pe dg ro wt hwe rei nt
    -r
    o
    duc ed, inc l
    udi ngthel og l
    Sticg rowt hmode l,t
    heSI Re pidemi cmo del ,andt hel ias
    s
    diffusionmod el.I
    mpo rta
    n te xt
    e ns i
    onst ot heba sice pidemi ca ndi n no vationdi fu-
    sionmo de lswe red evelope dtoi ll
    ustratehowmo de l
    ersca ni de ntifyt her e s
    tricti
    ve
    assumpt lOnSO famo de l,bo t
    he xplicita ndi mpl ic i
    t,andr e formul atet hemode lto
    bemo r er ealisti
    c.
    Thel og istic,epidemi c,andi nnova tiond iffusi onmod e lsc a nbef ittohi storica
    l
    data ,andt hef iti
    so ft
    ene xc ell
    e nt .Howe ver,tho ug hno nline arg rowt hmod elssuch
    asthel og lS
    tica ndBa ssmod elsa rewi de lyuse da ndo fte
    nf itce rtainda t
    as etsq uit
    e
    we ll,yo us ho uldn otus ethe se(o ra ny)mode lsa sbl ackbo xe sf orf orec asti
    ng.
    ¶) Cre ater e
    alist
    ica ndus efulmode lsofpr oduc td i
    軌S iona ndi nno vationa dop-
    ti
    o nyo umus texplici
    tlypo rtrayt hef eed backs truc tureofa dopt iona ndg r owth,-i
    n
    cludingt hes o urceso fattracti
    ve ne ssfo rthene wi deao rpr od uc t,thec ompe ti
    ti
    on,
    techni cali nnov ation,c hang lngC rit
    e r
    iao fus e,a ndo t
    he rf a ctor st hati nf
    lue nce
    ado ptlOna ndg r
    o wth. Ma nyr icha ndi nsightfuls ystemd yna mi c smode lso finno-
    vationdi ffus ionha v ebe ende ve l
    ope da nda reus eds uc c essfu ll
    yt oa ntici
    pa t
    e
    growt ha ndde s
    ignpo li
    ciesf ors ucces s( se
    e ,e. g.,Ho me r( 198 7)f oramode lof
    eme rgi ngme dicaltechno logie sa ndUr ba n,Ha us erandRo be rts( 1 990)f orfee
    -d
    backmo de lsf orprelaunc hf orec asti
    ngo fne wa ut omo bil
    emo de ls).
    Thehi sto r
    icalfitofamode ldoe snots howt hatthemo de lis" valid."Ma ny
    mode ls,e ac hwithd ifferenta ssumpt l
    OnSa boutt hef eedba cks truc turea nde ach
    gene ratlngd ife r
    e ntdyna mi cs,C a nfita nys e tofda tae qua llywe l
    l.Gr oundyour
    mode lsinc are f
    ullnv estl
    ga t
    iono fthephys i
    ca la ndi nsti
    tutio na lstruc turesa ndde
    -

    cisi
    o n-ma kingp roc essesoft hea c t
    o r
    sint hesys tema nddo n'tf orce -fitdatai ntothe
    assumpt ionsOfa nyp reselectedf unctiona lfo rm ormode l .Mode lss ho uldnotbe
    useda se xe rcisesinc urvef itt
    ingus ingt hea gg re ga t
    eda ta･ Onl ymod elstha tcap-
    turethec aus alstructureoft hes ys temwi llrespo nda cc
    u ra
    t elya sc o nd it
    ionsc ha nge
    andpo liciesa reimpl eme nte d.
    E
    I
    冨
    P護
    良f ;
    ie皇
    軍!_
    ?
    i
    達e盲
    ?i
    ee孟
    書で
    遠
    P￠
    S畳t
    ,
    量ve二
    Feedb
    ae.
    k

    Foru
    ntoe
    vey
    yo n
    eth
    athat
    hshal
    lbegi
    ven,
    andhesh
    all
    hav
    eabunda
    nce
    ;bu
    t
    fr
    omhimt
    hathat
    hnots
    hal
    lbeta
    kenawayeve
    nth
    atwhi
    chheh
    ath
    .
    -Ma
    tthe
    wXXV:29

    Thischapt
    ere xplorespathde pende nce,apa t
    tem ofbe haviorinwhichsma ll,
    ran-
    dome vent
    se arlyinthehi st
    oryofas ystemde ter
    mi netheul t
    imateends t
    ate,even
    whena l
    lends t
    ate
    sa ree quall
    ylike lyatthebe gi
    nnlng.Pa thdependencear i
    sesin
    syst
    emswhos edynami csaredomi na te
    dbypos i
    ti
    vef eedbackprocesse
    s･Thec hap-
    terexpl
    oresthec i
    rcums tancesinwhi chpos i
    ti
    vef eedbackc ancreat
    epa t
    hde pen-
    dence,t
    her oleofrandom e ventsea rlylnthehi s
    toryofapa th-
    dependentsystem,
    andthewaysi nwhi chapa t
    h-depende ntsystemc anlockint oapa r
    ti
    cularequi
    ilb -

    ri
    um. Feed
    ba cktheoriesofpa thdepe ndenc eandloc kinar edevel
    opedforanum-
    berofimpor t
    antexampl esirA
    Tb7
    1Si
    王IeSS,te
    c hnol
    ogy,a nde conomics,

    1
    0.1 PATH DEPENDENCE
    Whydoc loc
    ksgoc l
    ockwis
    e?Whydope opleinmostnationsdr iveontheright?
    Whyisthediamondbus i
    nessinNewYorkc oncent
    rat
    edintot hea reaar
    oundwes t
    47t
    hStre
    et?Whydone ar
    lyallt
    ypi
    stsl
    eantheineff
    ici
    entQWERTYke yboardlayl
    out
    ?Howdi dMi crosof
    t'
    sWi ndowsandlntel'
    sproce
    ssorsc omet odominat
    ethe
    marke
    tforper
    sonalcomputers?Whyaretheresomanywi nne r-
    take-al
    lmarket
    s-

    349
    350 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    situa tionswhe r es uc ce ssa c crue stot hes uc c essful, whe ret her ichge tr iche ra ndthe
    poorge tpoor e r?Andwha tdot hes eque s tionsha vet odowi the achot he r?Al la re
    e xa mpl esofs ys t
    e mse xhi bi ingpat
    t hde pe nde nc e.Pa thde pe nde nc ei sapa tternof
    be ha vi ori nwhi cht heul tima t
    ee qui libr ium de pendsont hei nitia lc ondi tionsa nd
    ra ndom s hoc ksa st hes ys te me vol ve s .Inapa th-de pe nde nts ys tem,s ma ll,unpr e-
    di ctabl ee ve ntse a rlyl nt hehi storyoft hes ys t
    emc ande cisivelyde t
    e rmi nei tsul tト
    ma tef a te.
    Thee vent uale nds tateofapa t
    h- de pe nde nts ys te m de pe ndso nt hes tart
    lng
    pol nta ndons ma ll, unpr edi ctablepe rturba ti
    onse a rlyi ni tshi s t
    or y. Eve nwhe na l
    l
    pa thsa rei niti
    a llye qua llya ttractive ,thes ymme t
    ryi sbr oke nbymi cros copl Cnoi se
    a nde xt ernalpe rtur ba tions .Pos itivef ee dba ckpr oc ess est he na mpl ifyt hes es ma l
    l
    ini t
    ialdi fferenc esunt i
    lthe yr e achma cros c opICS i
    gni fic anc e.Onc eadomi na ntde -
    signOrS t
    anda r dha se me rge d,t hec os tsofs wi t
    c hingbe c omepr ohi bi t
    ive,s othe
    equi libr ium i ss elf- enfor c lng: thes ys tem ha sloc ke di n暮
    Thee xa ctga ugeofar a i
    lroa di sofl it
    t l
    ec ons eque nc e( wi t
    hi nbr oa dl imi ts
    ).At
    thes tar toft her aila ge ,noonega ugewa sabe t
    te rc hoi cet ha na nyot he r. Yetthe
    sta nda rdga ugeus edi nt heUSa ndmos toft hewor ldi s1 .
    44me ter s(4f eet8. 5
    inc he s). Howdi dt hi sc onve rge ncea ris e?Ea rl
    yr ailroa ds ,e achunc onne c tedt othe
    ot hers ,ut ili
    z edawi der a ngeofdi fe r entga uge s( onee arlyl ineus eda7f oot
    ga uge! ).Rol lings toc kwa ss pe cifict oe ac hne twor ka ndc oul dnotbeus edo nl i
    nes
    wi thadi fferentga uge･ Buta sr ailne twor ksgr ew,c ompa tibili
    tybe ca memo r
    ea nd
    mor ei mpor t
    a nt( whe nga uge sdi ffe re d,goodst ra ns shippe df rom onel inet oa n-
    ot herha dt obeunl oa de d血. om onet raina ndr e l
    oa de dona not he r,gr e a
    tlyr ais
    lng
    cos tsa nds l
    owi ngde live ry) ,Ra ilroa dsof feringc ompa tibilitye n joye dahugec ost
    adva nta ges inc et hes amer ollings toc kc o uldus ea nypa r toft hene twor k.Gr adu-
    ally,t hes ma llerr a ilroa dsa do pte dt hega ugeus edbyt hel a r
    ges tne two rks .Thea t-
    tra ct
    ive nes soft ha tga ugewa st he ni nc re ase ds t
    illf u rthe r,f orml ngapos it
    ive
    fe edba c k.Sma llerr a il
    roa dsus lngI nc ompa tiblega ugesl os tbus ines sorc onve r
    te d
    the irroa da ndr ollings toc kt obec ompa tibl e.Soonas lngl ega uge - wi tht heun-
    like l
    ydi me ns ionsof1 .
    44me te rs-e me rge dast hedomi nants ta nda rd.Byt he
    1 860S ,t hec os tsofs wi tc hingt oa not he rga uge( Abr a ha m Li nc olni sre po rtedt o
    ha vea rgue df or5f e et)we r epr ohi bitive: hes
    t ys t
    e mha dl oc kedi nt ot hes tanda rd.1
    Simi larpos it
    ivef ee dba cksa rer es pons iblef oro the re xampl eso fpa t
    hde pe n-
    de nc e:Themo ret ype wr ite rswi tht he( 〕WERTY ke yboa rdwe res old,t hemor e
    pe opl el e a川e dt ot ypewi tht ha tla yout ,a ndt hemor es uc cessfulQWERTYma -
    chi nesbe came, whi lema ke rsofa lte rna tiveke yboa rdsl ostbus ine ss.Ast hema r
    ke t
    sha reofWi nte lc omput e rsg re w,mor es of twa r ewa swr i
    tte nf ort ha tpl atforma nd
    les sde ve lope df orot he rpl a fo rmsa
    t ndope ratlngS yS te mS ･Themo res oftwa re
    ava ilabl ef orapa rtic ula rope ratin gS yste m,t hegr e atert hede ma ndf orc omput ers
    compa tiblewi tht ha ts ys te m, in cre asingWi nt elma rke ts ha res til
    lf u rther.

    1somec l
    aimthatt
    hesta
    ndar
    dg a
    lg
    l eemerge
    dbecau
    seitwast
    hewi d
    thofji
    gsdes
    ig
    nedori
    gト
    n
    a l
    l
    yforwa gons,whic
    hintur
    nhadth o
    sedimens
    ionst
    ofitt
    her
    utsontheroa
    ds,whi
    chintu
    rnwere
    d
    e t
    er
    minedb ytherut
    sinRomanroads,whi
    chwe r
    esetbyth
    ewidthofRomanchar
    iot
    sandwag-
    o
    n s
    ,whichintur
    nwe resi
    zedt
    oaccommo datet
    hewidt
    ho ft
    woRo manhors
    es.I
    ftr
    ue,i
    til
    l
    ust
    rat
    es
    t
    hewaylnWh i
    chp o
    sit
    iv
    efeed
    backcanc a
    useasta
    ndar
    dtopers
    is
    tlongaft
    ert
    heini
    ti
    alr
    ati
    onal
    efo
    r
    i
    tsse
    lect
    ionhasvanis
    hed.
    Ch
    apt
    er10 P
    athDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndP
    osi
    t
    iveFe
    edb
    ack 351

    Wha tc ausessomes ystemst oe xhibitpa thde pende nc ebutnotot he r


    s ?Pa t
    hde -
    pende nc ea r i
    sesins ystemsdomi natedbypos it
    ivef eed back. Fi gur e1 0-1illus tr
    a t
    es
    thedi ffe r
    e nc ebetwe enas yst
    em domi na tedbyne gativef ee dba cka ndapa th-de-
    pende nts ys t
    e m domi natedbypos it
    ivef ee dba ck.Fi rst,ima gl neaS moot h-si
    de d
    bowl . Thel owe stpolntOft hebowli sa ne quili
    br i
    um- ama rblepl ac edthe rewi l
    l
    rema int her e･Thee quili
    br i
    umi ss table:pus hingt hema rbleof ft hee quilibriumc re-
    atesaf orc eoppos l
    ngt hedi splaceme nt .Ama rbledr oppe da nywhe reint hebowl
    wi l
    le ve ntua ll
    yc omet or estatthebot tom( thoughi tma yr olla roundawhi lef i
    rst)
    .
    Thee qui li
    br iumi snotpa t
    hde pe ndent :thema rblec omest or esta tthes a mes pot
    noma t
    te rwhe reitisdro ppeda ndnoma tt
    e ritsiniti
    alve l
    oc ity( asl onga si tstays
    wi t
    hint hebowl -t hee qui li
    brium i sonl yl ocallys t
    a ble)･As t ablee quilibr i
    um i s
    alsoc alleda nat t
    rac t
    orbe c a
    usea l
    lpoi ntsa rea tt
    ractedt oi t.Te c hnic a
    lly, be cause
    thee qui li
    br ium isloc al
    lya ndnotgl oba llys ta
    bl eitisa na t
    tr actoronl yf orpol ntS
    wi t
    hini tsbas i
    no fat tr
    ac ti
    on.Theba si
    nofa ttr
    ac t
    ioni sthebowl .Ins idei t,a l
    l
    polntSl ea dt othea ttra
    ctora tthebot tom.Out sidethebowl ,thedyna mi csa redif-
    ferenLTheDea dSe aandGr ea tSa l
    tLa kea ree xa mpl es:Ra inf al
    linga nywhe re
    overt hes ewa t
    ershedse ndsupi nthe irsa l
    tybr ine.Ra inf al
    lingove rot he rwa ter-
    shedsf l
    owst othese a.

    FI
    GURE10-
    1 Pat
    hdependenc
    ear
    i
    sesi
    nsy
    stemswi
    t
    hloc
    aHyuns
    tabl
    eequi
    F
    ibr
    ia.
    Left:Al ocall
    ystableequi Fi
    bri
    um･ Thes ystemi sgovernedbyn egati
    vef eedback:thegreater
    thedjspr acemen toftheba川f romt heequi li
    bri
    umP* ,
    thegreatertheforcepushingitbackt owardthe
    centerandequi l
    ibri
    um. Abal lplacedan ywher einthebowl event
    uallycomest orestatt hebott
    om;
    perturba ti
    onsdon'ta f
    fecttheequi l
    ibr
    iumr eached.
    R/ght
    ' :Al ocall
    yuns tableequ‖ i
    briumlTh es yst
    emi sgov er
    nedb ypositi
    vefeedback :thegreater
    thedis placemen tofthebal l
    ,thes t
    eep erthehi Handthegreatertheforcepu"ingitawayf romth e
    equili
    br i
    umatP' .Th eslight
    estdistur
    ban cec ausestheballtofanoffthepeak. Theinit
    ialper
    turbati
    on
    determi nesthepat htak enbyt heba"an dper hapstheult
    imatedes t
    inati
    on-t hes y
    stemi spath
    depen den t･

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    ,

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    1呼､ー_
    352 Pa
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    heDy
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    No wt ur nt hebo wlu ps idedown. Thet o poft hebo wli ss tilla ne q uilibrium-


    ifthema rbl ei sba l
    a nc e de xa ctlya tt het opl tWi llr ema int here･ Ho we ve r, t
    hee qul-
    1ibriumi sno wuns tabl e. Thes light e s tpe r
    tur ba tionwi llc auset hema r blet omove
    slight lyd ownh ill.Ast hes lopei nc re ase s,t hedownwa rdf orc eo nt hema rblei n-
    cre as esa ndi tmove ss tillf urthe rdownhi ll,i napos i
    tivef eedba ck.( Anuns table
    eq uilibriumi sa lsot e rme dar e pe llorbe c aus ene a
    rbyt ra
    j ector i
    e sa ref or ceda wa y
    fro mi .
    t)Thes ys temi spa h de
    t pe nd e ntbe c a uset hed i
    r ectiont a kenbyt heba llde-
    pe ndso nt hei nitialpe r t
    u rbatio n: As ma llnudg et ot hel efta ndt hema rbler ollsto
    thel eft;a ne qua l
    lys ma lls hoc kt ot her ighta ndi tmo vesf a rt
    he rright ･Ofc our,se
    thoug ht hee qui libr i
    um a tthet o po ft hebowli slo callyuns tabl e,thes ys tema sa
    who lemus tbeg loba llys table. Thema r blee ve ntua ll
    yc ome stor est･Butt hepa t
    h-
    de pe nde n tna t
    u reo ftheba ll'
    smo ti
    onne art hee q uil
    ibriumpo int me ansi tc anc ome
    tor e sta nywhe reo nt hef loo r ,a ndt hepa rticul ars poti tr eache sde pe ndsont hat
    sma ll,initia ld istu rba nc e.
    Ima glner a inf a lli
    ngne art hec ont ine nta ldi videofNo rthAme rica ･Twor a i
    n-
    dr opsf a llaf e wi nc he sa pa rt,O neJ us ttOt hee a stoft hed ividea ndo neJ ustt Ot he
    we st.Thed iffere nc ei nl andi ngs potmi ghtbed uet os ma ll,uno bs ervabl edi fe r
    -
    enc e sint hewi nda st het wod ro psf a l
    lfromt hec louds ･ Thoug ht heybe ginonl y
    inc he sa pa rt, onee ndsu pi nt hePa c ific;t heot he r,tho usa ndsofmi lesa wa yl nt he
    Gul fo fMe x ico. Mi cros c opicdi fe re nc esi ni nitialc ond i
    ti onsl e adt oma c rosc opIC
    diffe renc esi no u tco me s.
    Thei n ve rtedbowli llustrate sa not he ri mpo r tantfea tureo fpa th-de pe nd ents ys-
    tems :loc ki n. Whe nt heba l
    li sba lanc eda tt het opo fthebo wl , alle quilibr i
    umPOI
    sitionsa ree qua ll
    yl ike ly. Youc a ni nflue nc ewhe rethema rblec ome st or estwi th
    thes li
    gh te ste fo rt:Bl owge nt lyt ot hel e f
    ta ndt hema rbl ee ndsu po no nes ideof
    ther oom; blowt heo the rwa ya ndt hema rbl er ollst otheo the rs ide･ Onc et heba l
    l
    ha ss tartedt omo ved o wnt hes lopeabi t, howe ve r,i
    tt a
    ke sag re atd eal mo ree ne rgy
    topus hi tba ckt ot het opa ndove rt heo the rwa y･Thef a rt
    he rt heba llha smove d
    andt hef aste riti sgo ing, theha r de ri ti st oa lteritsc our se･
    Att hed a wno fthea uto mo bilea gei tdi d n'tma tterwhi chs ideo ft her oadpe o-
    pled roveon. Bu ta st ra fficde ns i
    t yl nC re aSe d, thei mpo rtan ceo fac ons istents tan-
    da rdg r
    e w. Themo repe o pled r oveonones ide ,themo rel i
    ke lyl tWa sne wdr ive r
    s
    ina djace ntr eg l
    O nSwo ulddr iveo nt hes ames id e,incr eas i
    ngt hea ttra ctivene s sof
    thats i
    des tillf ur t
    he r,inapos itivel oo p. Mos tna ti
    o nsr api dlyc o nve rge dt ooneof
    thet wos tanda rds ,Wi t
    hGr eatBr itaina ndhe rc ol onie s
    , alongwi thJ apa na ndaf e w
    othe rna tions ,e lec tlngl eft-ha ndd ri vewhi lemos to ft her esto fthewo rldc on-
    ve rge dt or i ght -ha ndd ri
    ve. Initia lly,t heSwe de se lectedt od riveo nt hel eft,a sin
    Gr e atBr ita in. Ast raffica ndt ra dewi tht her e stofEur opeg rew, anda stheSwe dish
    aut oi nd us trys oug htt oi nc rea ses ale si nt hel argerr ightlha ndd r i
    vema rke t, i
    tbe -
    ca mei nc re as i
    ngl yi nc on ve nie nta ndc os tlyf ort heS we d ishs ys temt obea todds
    wi tht hep re vailin gs tand ardi nEur o pea ndNor thAme rica ･Se eingt ha ttheSwe dish
    roa da nda ut os ys temwa sr api dlyl oc ki ngi n, theSwe d ese ng lne eredar e ma rka ble
    cha nge. At5AMO nSe pt embe r3,1 96 7,t hee nt i
    rena tionbe ga ntodr iveo nt he
    right .Swe de n' sa bi lityt oe ffe ctt hes wi tchs moot hl ywa spa rtlyd uet oma ssive
    prio re duc a tiona ndah ug epu bl icwo r kse for ttoc ha ng er oads ig nage ･ Butt hes uc-
    ce ssoft hes wi tc ha lsod epe nde do nt hes ma lls izea ndl o wd ens ityo ft hepo pula-
    tion, bo thhu ma na nda uto mo bi le. In1 967t het ot lpo
    a pul a t
    io no fSwe de nwa sless
    Ch
    apt
    er10 P
    athDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndPo
    sit
    i
    veFe
    edb
    ack 353

    tha n8mi llion,a ndt he rewe reonl ya bout2mi ll


    ionc ars, or46pe opl ea nd1 2c ars
    pe rs q
    ua remi le･Mos to fthegr owt hi nSwe de n'sa utopo pul ationa ndhi ghwa yne t
    -
    wo rklaya he ad; thedi s ruptlOna ndc os tsoft hes wi tchwe res ma llc ompa re dt ot he
    be nefits･Ima gi neWha ti twoul dc os tt oda yt os witchf romlf et Jor ight -
    ha nddr ive
    inJ apa n. Tho ug hJ a pa ni sonl ya bout80% a sla r
    gea sSwe de n,int hemi d1 990si t
    wa shomet oa bo ut1 26mi l
    lionpe opl ea nd40mi l
    lionc ars ,mor et ha n870pe o ple
    and275c ar spe rs qua r emi le.Thedi srupt lOna ndc os twoul df arout we igha ny
    be nefits｡J apa nha sl ongs incel oc ke di nt ole ft-handd r
    ive.
    Path- de pe nd ents ys temsa r emor ec ommont ha nma nyofusi ma gi ne.The
    choi ceofs tanda rdss uc ha st hes ha peofe l
    e ctricalpl ugs , thel oca t
    ionoft hepr lme
    me ri
    dian,a ndt hel e ngt hoft hes ta nda rdme teri nPa risa rea l
    la rbitrary, butonc ea
    glVe nC hoi c ebe c ome sa cc e
    pt ed,t hes ysteml oc ksi nt ot ha tc hoice ,eve nt hough
    othe ralter na t
    ive swe reJ usta sa ttrac tivee arlyon. Pa thde pe nde nc ea ndl oc ki na re
    notr estric tedt oe conomi c,te chni cal ,orhuma ns yste ms .Compl exor ga nicmol e-
    cul essuc ha sa mi noa cidsa ndt hes uga rsi nDNAc ane xis tint wodi fferentf orms ,
    ide nti
    cle
    a xc e pte ac hi sthemi rr ori ma geoft heot he r.The s ee nant iome rsa re
    knowna st heL( levo,o rleft-ha nde d)a ndD ( dext r
    o,orr ight-ha nde d)f or ms . The
    chir al
    ity( ha nde dne ss)oft hee na ntiome rsdoe snotma tteri ni solati
    on- t hephys i
    -
    calpr ope rtie sofLa ndDmol e cul esa ret hes ame. Ye tthepr oteinsi ne sse ntia l
    lya l
    l
    li
    feone arthha vel evoc hirality. Pos itivef ee dba cka ndl oc k-ina rer espons ible. Just
    asyouc a nnotpu tar ightha ndedgl oveonyourl ef tha nd,t hedi fe rentt hre e-di-
    me ns i
    ona ls truc ture soft het wot ype sme ant heD- a mi noa cidsa r
    ephys ic allyi n-
    compa tiblewi thpr ote insbui l
    toft hel ef t-
    ha nde df orm.Mos tc he mi calr ea c t
    ions
    tendt opr oduc ed iffere nte nant iome rsi ne qua l propo rtions , l
    ea dingma nys c ientists
    toc onje ctur et ha tbo t
    hl efta ndr ighta mi noa ndnuc leica cidswe ree qua llyc om-
    moni nt hepr lmO rdi als oupoft hee ar l
    yoc e ans .Byc ha nc e,thepr oteinst ha tbe-
    camet heba sisf orlifeone arh we
    t ref or me df roml ef t-
    ha nde da minoa cids .Asne w
    orga nismse vol ve df r
    om t he irl eft-ha nde da nc estors ,thewe bofl e ft
    -ha nde dl ife
    grewi nma gni tud ea ndc ompl exl ty, Whi lea nyr ight-ha nde df わr msbe ca mee xtinc t
    .
    Lifeone arh ha
    t sr ema i nedl oc kedi nt ot hel efトha nde df om se
    r ve rs i
    nc e.2

    E
    dent
    if
    yingPat
    hDepender
    ミC昏
    Identif
    ya sma nyexa mplesofpath-depe
    nde ntsyst
    emsa syoucan.Considereco -

    nomi c,tec
    hnical,socia
    l,sci
    enti
    fic,physi
    cal,biol
    ogica
    l,andot
    he rexa
    mpl es.
    For
    eachc ase,
    identi
    fya tl
    eastoneposiivef
    t eedbackprocesst
    hatmi
    ghtber es
    ponsibl
    e
    forthepa t
    h-dependentbehavio
    ra ndsketchitinthefor
    m ofacausaldi
    agram.

    2
    RNAa ndDNAa reals
    oc hir
    al(onefor
    mt wist
    slef
    t,o
    ne,r
    ight
    ).Butonl
    ytheri
    ghトhanded
    fo
    rmsa rest
    er
    eos
    coplC
    all
    yc ompati
    blewiththeL-ami
    noacids
    ,soesse
    nti
    al
    lyal
    l n
    atur
    alt
    erres
    tr
    ia
    l
    nucl
    eicaci
    dshav
    ethesameright-
    twist
    ingChiral
    i
    ty.So
    mep hys
    ici
    stsc
    onje
    ctu
    rethat
    thein
    iti
    alpus
    h
    fa
    v o
    ringth
    elef
    t-
    handedaminoacidsd iv
    er edfromp a
    rlt
    yVio
    lat
    ionsoft
    heweaknucle
    arforce
    ,in
    whichcert
    ai
    nrad
    ioact
    ivedecayrea
    ctionsfa
    v o
    ro nec
    hir
    alf
    orm.Ho weve
    r,amechan
    ismforpref
    er-
    en
    tialsel
    ect
    io
    noftheL-fo
    mb
    r ythewea kforceorot
    herphy
    sic
    lp
    a roc
    esse
    ssuchaspola
    ri
    z e
    dlig
    ht
    hasnotyetbe
    endemonstr
    at
    ed .
    354 P
    art
    III Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    10t
    2 ASI
    MPLEi
    t
    F!oDELOFPATH DEPENDENCE:
    THEPoL
    YA PROCESS
    Yo uc ane a sil
    yc ons truc tas impl ea ndc ompe l
    linge xa mpl eofpa thde pe nde nc e.
    Ima gl neaJ arfille dwi ths ma lls tone s.The rea rebl ac ks tonesa ndwhi tes tone s .
    Stone sa rea dde dt ot hej aronea tat ime. Thec oloroft hes tonea dde de achpe r i
    od
    isde termi ne dbyc ha nc e. Thepr oba bi lityofs e lectl
    ngabl acks tonei se qua lt ot he
    pro por t
    ionofbl ac ks tone sa lrea dyi nt hej ar｡Itist hisla sta ssumpt lOnt ha tgl Ve St he
    sys temi tsuni queC ha rac tera ndc r eate spa thde pe nde nc e.Suppos et hej ari nitially
    c o
    nt a insonebl a cka ndonewhi t es tone. Thepr oba bili
    tyt hene xts toneyouc hoos e
    wi llbebl ac kist he n1 /2. Suppos ei ttur nso uttobebl a ck. No wt herea ret wobl a ck
    andonewhi t
    es tonesi nt hej ar. Thepr oba bili
    tyofpi c kingbl a ckont hene xtdr a w

    isnow2 /3.Suppos ei tisbl ack.Now3 /40ft hes tonesa rebl a ck. Thepr eponde r-
    anc eofbl ac kstonesmea nsi ti smo rel ike l
    yt ha nnott ha ts tillmor ebl acks tones
    wi llbea dde d, andt hej ari slike lyt oe ndu pwi thmor ebl a ckt ha nwhi t
    es t
    one s .But
    suppos eont hef irstdr awawhi tes toneha dbe enc hos en. Thel ike li
    hoodofd rawl
    lngabl a cks t
    oneont hes ec ondr oundwo ul dthe nha vebe e n1 / 3ins teadof2 /3. The
    Jari st he nl ikelyt oe ndupwi thmo rewhi tethanbl acks tones ･Thet ra j
    e ctoryOft he
    sys tem, a ndt heul tima temi xofs tone si nt heja r,depe ndsoni t shis t
    or y, ont hepa r-
    ticula rs e que nceofr andome ve nt s.Fi gur e1 0-2s howsac a usa ldi agra m oft hi ss ys -
    tem,knownasaPol yapr oc essa f teritsi nve ntor, t
    hema the ma tici
    a nGe orgePol y乱
    (188 7-1 98 5).
    ThePol yas ys temc ont ainst wof ee dba ckl oops ,onepos i
    tivea ndonene ga tive,
    fore a cht ypeofs tone. 3Th egr e atert henumbe rofbl ac ks t
    one s,thegr eate rthe
    cha nc eofa ddinga not he rbl ac ks tone( apos it
    ivel oop) .Att hes a met ime,t he
    gre ate rt henumbe rofbl ac ks tones ,thegr e at
    e rthet ot alnumbe rofs tone sa nds o
    thes ma l lerthei mpa c tofa nyne wbl ac ks tonea dde dt ot hej aront hepr opor tionof
    blac ks tone s( ane ga tivel oo p).
    Fi gur e1 0-3S hows1 0s imul ationsoft hePol yapr oc es s･Ea chi s200pe riods
    long. Atf irst,eachs t onea dde dt ot hej a rha sal argei nf
    lue nc eont hepr oba bilit
    yof
    choos ingt hene xts tone( thef ir sts tonea dde dde termi neswhe the rthepr oba bility
    ofc hoos ingabl ac ks tonei s2/ 3or1 /3) .Thepos it
    ivel oopdomi na tes .Buta sthe
    numbe rofs tonesgr ows ,e ac hne ws toneha sas ma ll
    e ra nds ma llere ff
    e cto nt he
    propor t
    ions .Thepos itivel oopwe ake nsr e l
    ativet ot hene ga t
    ivel oop･Eve ntua l
    ly,
    thenumbe rofs tone si ss ol arget ha tthene xts t
    onea dde dha sane gligi blee fe c ton
    thepr opor tionofe ac hc olori nt hej ar. Thepos i
    tivea ndne ga tivel oo psa ree xa ctly
    bala nc e da tthatpoi nt .Thepr opor tionofe achc olorwi llthe ns t
    a bilize ,sinc eon
    ave ra ges toneswi llbea dde di nt hef u turei nt hes amepr opo rtiona sthos ea r
    l eady
    int hej ar.
    Ther atioofbl ac kt owhi t
    es tone se ve ntuallyr eache se qui librium, butt ha tra tio

    depe ndsont hehi st or yoft hec olor ss e l


    e cted.Sma l
    lr a ndom e ve ntse arlyl nthe

    3
    Theproce
    sscane
    asi
    l
    ybege
    nera
    li
    zedt
    oanynu
    mbero
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    lor
    s･Th
    eprobabi
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    ythene
    xtst
    one
    a
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    disanycolo
    rClt
    heneq
    ual
    sth
    epropo
    rt
    io
    noft
    hat
    col
    ori
    nth
    eJar
    , ∑JCj(
    Cl/ onl
    yonecol
    orl
    S
    a
    dde
    dp e
    rp e
    ri
    od).
    Ch
    apt 0P
    er1 a
    thDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndPo
    sit
    l
    VeF
    eed
    bac
    k 355

    GURE 1
    F【 0-
    2 ThePol
    yapr
    oces
    s
    Everyperiodonestoneisaddedtoth
    etotal.
    Theprobabi
    li
    tyo
    fchoosl
    ngaS
    toneOfagl
    venc
    olor
    equalsthepropor
    ti
    ono ft
    hatcol
    orint
    hetotalpopul
    ati
    on.
    Theru l
    eforaddin
    gs t
    oneso fagl
    VenCOl
    or.J
    S
    1i
    fRan aw<Pr
    domDr opor
    ti
    onofBl
    ackSt
    ones
    Bl
    ackSt
    onesAddedp
    erPer
    iod- 0o
    ther
    w i
    se
    (
    1i
    f(1- RandomDrw)<Pr
    a opor
    ti
    onofWhiteStones
    Whi
    teSt
    onesAddedperPer
    iod- 0ot
    ( h er
    wise
    wher
    etheRandomDrawisanumberdra
    wnatrandomfr
    omauni
    f
    or mdi
    str
    ibu
    tionontheint
    erval
    [0,
    1].

    his
    toryofthesyst
    emt lplttowardo nepat
    hr a
    thert hananothe r
    .Thee quil
    ibri
    um
    ispathdependent
    .Thea ccumulati
    onofs t
    oneseve ntuall
    yloc ksthes ystemi nto
    equil
    ibr
    ium atapart
    icularpro
    porti
    onofe achcolor. Toreversethepr oportionof
    blac
    ks t
    ones血･om2:1to1:2whe ntherear
    ethreestonesinthej arrequlr
    e Sdrawing
    thr
    eewhi t
    es t
    onesinar ow,ane ventwit
    hapr oba bili
    tyofl o啄 [P( ThreeWhi t
    e
    st
    onesl2Bla
    ck,1White)-(1/3)(2
    /4)
    (3/
    5)]･Butto誓ovef romara ti
    oof2:1to1:2
    whenther
    eare200bla
    ckand1 00whitestonesrequlr
    eSdrawing300whi t
    estones
    i
    narow, aneve
    ntwit
    hava ni
    shinglys
    mallprobabili
    ty(8.
    3× 1 0 84tobepre
    cise
    ).
    356 Pa
    rtI
    II TheDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    FIGURE10-
    3
    Tenreal
    i
    zat
    ionsof

    sa

    0
    8
    ut
    thePol
    yaprocess

    o
    s とOt
    0
    6
    2g
    I 1
    0u

    0
    4
    O!IO
    jdo

    2
    0
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    0
    0 50 100 150 200
    Ti
    me(per
    iod
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    GURE1
    FI 0-4 0.
    12
    Equi
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    0.
    10
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    di
    str
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    onofthe
    Pol
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    08
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    u]S -0 uO

    Histogramshows
    thepr oporti
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    06
    b一acks t
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    er500 0.
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    ]1

    decH eaft
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    periodsin1 0,000 0.
    02
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    dist
    ributi
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    00
    quit
    euni form:
    A一lproporti
    ons Pr
    opor
    ti
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    fBl
    ackSt
    one
    saf
    ter5
    00p
    eri
    ods
    areequal lyli
    kely
    i
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    Themor es t
    ones ,t
    hel esslikelythe rewi llbea nymove me nta wayf rom t hec urrent
    proport
    ion:thes ysteml ocksint owha teve rbalanc eeme rgesf rom itse arlyhistory･
    Pol
    yapr ovedt ha tthepr ocesswi lla lwaysconve rget oaf i
    xe dpr opor ti
    onof
    blackstones,a ndt hatt hepa rticularpr oport
    ionde pe ndsont hehi s
    toryoft he
    random eventsa l
    ongt hewa y.Polyaal sopr ovedt herema r kabler esultthatthedi s-
    tr
    ibuti
    onoff inalpropor t i
    onsi sunif orm, thatis,thef i
    nalf r act
    ionofbl ac kstonesi s
    equall
    ylikelyt obea nywhe rebe twe en0a nd1･4Fi gure1 0- 4showst hedi str
    ibution
    ofthepropor ti
    onofbl acks t
    onesa fter5 00per iodsi nas etof1 0,00 0simul ati
    ons ･
    Thedi st
    ributionisnea r l
    yuni f
    orm:Al lpr oportionsofbl ac
    ks tonesa r
    ee qua lly
    1●
    11
    li
    kelylnthel10ngr un( s
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    4
    Thed i
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    r uti
    onisuni
    for
    mo nl
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    especi
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    sewh eret
    henumberofsto
    nesaddedper
    p
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    odisoneandtheja
    rini
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    ean donebla
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    lngt
    henumberan
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    tonesaddedle
    adt
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    ere
    n tequi
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    bri
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    ohnsonandKotz(1
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    i onofs tone si nt hePol yapr oc ess,e lec troni c sma ke rsdi dnotf li p
    c oinst ode te-i newhi cht ypeofVCRt oma kea ndc us tome r sdidnots pi naWhe e
    l
    off わr tunet ode cidewhi chf bm a ttobuy. Ther ando ms hoc ksi napa th- de pende nt
    sys t ems ta
    ndf ore ve ntsout sidet hebo unda ryof血emode l-t hati s,t hos ee ve nts
    fo rwhi chweha venoc aus a lthe ory. Agoa lofmode lingl St Oexpa ndt hebounda ry
    o fo urmode lss ot ha tmor ea ndmor eoft heune xpl aine dva ria t
    ioni nthebe ha vi or
    ofas ys te mi sr esol ve di ntot het he ory.
    The rea rema nyt he o riest oe xpl inhowBe
    a tama xl osti tsea rlyl ea d. Kl o pfe n-
    ste in( 1 989)not est ha tVHSof fe redl onge rpl aya ndr ec or dt ime( or igina llyt he
    VHSpl aytlmeWa s2hour st olhourf orBe tama x;by1 988t her atiowa s8ho urs
    forVHSt o5. 5hour sf orBe tama x) .Lo nge rpl ayt ime,Kl opf ensteina rgues ,ga ve
    VHSt hee a rlye dge. Ⅰnc ont ra st
    ,Ar t
    hur( 199 4)a r
    gue st hatBe tama xha das ha rpe r
    pl Ctu ret hanVHSa ndwa sa ctua l
    lyt hes upe riort echnol ogy.
    Ane arlyVHSpr icea dva nta gei sa not he rt he or ybutda tas uppor tlngl ta re
    we ak. Pr ic
    eda taa reha r dt oge t,buts ugge stt ha twhi leVHSma chi neswe rea bo ut
    7% c he a pert ha nBe tama xma chinesi n1 978, the ywe rea c tua l
    lymor ee xpe ns i ve
    tha nBe tama chinest hef ollowl ng3ye ars .Pric edoe snots e emt obeade cisivef ac-
    to ri ne xpla inlnghowVHSove rt
    ookBe tama x.
    Cus uma no, Myl ona di s, andRos e nbl oom( 1992)poi ntt ot hedi fe re ntbus ine ss
    stra tegi e se mpl oye dbySonya ndMa tsus hita.Sony ,S e ekingt opr ofitf rom t he i
    r
    pr opr le taryt e chnol ogy,wasr e l
    uc tantt ol ice ns eBe ta ma xt oot he rf i
    rms .Inc on-
    tra st,J VCa ndi tspa re ntMa tsushi taa ggr es sivelys oughtpa r
    tne rsa mongot he r
    ma nuf ac t
    ur ers,s etl owe rl ic ens i
    ngf ee st ha nSony,a nde ve nde laye dt hei ntroduc -
    tionofVHSunt ilthe ya ndt he irallie sc oul da greeonc ommont echni ca ls tanda rds.
    Ma tsus hitaa l
    s obui ltVCRss oldunde rt hel abe lofot he rf irms ,s pe edingpr oduc -
    tionr a mpup.Ma t sushi tat husga ine da cce sst ot hedi stribut io nc ha nne l soft he se
    firms ,a nda lsoga ine dl arge rpr oduc tionvol umet ha ni ft he yha dke ptt he irt ec h-
    nol ogypr opr ietary.Cons eque ntly, Ma tsus hitae njoye dgr e aters ca l
    ee conomi e si n
    di stribut iona ndpr oduc tiona ndga ine de x pe rienc et ha tmov e di td ownt hel eaml ng
    cur vemor er a pidly.
    Thede ve lol)me ntOft hepr e
    re co rde dt aei
    p ndus trypl a ye dake yr ol e,Pr iort o
    1977, thema JOr ly ofpr
    t ere cor de dt ape swe r ea ime da tt hea d u ltente r
    ta inme nts e c-
    tor( simi la
    rt ot hee arlyda ysoft hewor ldwi dewe b) IRCA, Ma tsus hit a'sl arges t
    cus to me rint heUS,s oughtt oJ ump- St
    a rtt hema rke tf org en erala udi e nc evi de os
    andt husVCRs alesbyof fer i
    ngt wof re eVHSt apeswi the achVCRi ts ol d.RCA
    alsoe nc our age df irmss uc ha sMa gne ti
    cVi de ot oinves tinVHSe q ulPme nttOS u p-
    plypr e reco rde dt a pe sf ort heUSma rke t.La rges ca lep rod u c t
    iono fpr er ecor de d
    Be ta ma xt apesl agge dbe hi ndbya boutaye a r(Cus uma no, Myl ona d i
    s,a ndRos e n-
    bloom 1 992) ･No t ef romFi gur e1 0- 9t ha tt heVHSs ha reo fp r e
    re co r
    de dt apepr o-
    duc ti
    ona ctua llye xc ee dsVHS' ss ha reoft hei ns talle dba seun til1 983,whi c h
    fu rt
    he ri ncre ase dt hea ttrac tive nessofVHSt ovi de or en tals to resa ndc us tome rs .
    364 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    Formu5
    ati
    ngI-
    aDyr!
    ami
    cHypo紬esi
    sfor
    theVCF
    Hn･justr
    y
    1.Us
    ingt
    hei
    nfo
    rma
    tiona
    bove(
    anda
    nya
    ddi
    ti
    ona
    lsour
    cesyo
    uwi
    sh)de
    vel
    op
    acaus
    alloopdia
    gra
    mt oexpla
    int
    hedominanceofVHSi nt
    hehomeVCR
    marke
    t.Yourdia
    gra
    ms houl
    dbesimplebuts
    houldcapt
    uret
    hei
    mport
    ant
    f
    eedbacksdes
    cri
    bedabove,
    bothpos
    it
    iveandnegat
    ive.
    2.Useyourdi
    agr
    amtoexpla
    inwhythema
    rke
    tconve
    rge
    dtoas
    ingl
    efor
    mat
    ,
    andwhyVHSwo nthefom a
    tba
    ttl
    e.
    3.Howmi g
    htSonyha
    vea
    lte
    redi
    tss
    tra
    tegyt
    opr
    eve
    ntVHSf
    rombe
    comi
    ng
    domi
    nant?
    4.Sony'
    SBe t
    amaxformatl
    osttoVHSi ntheI /
    2inchhomeVCRma rketbut
    remai
    nst hemarketl
    eade
    rinthemarketforprofe
    ssiona
    lquali
    ty3/4inch
    equl
    Pme ntusedbytel
    evis
    ionandnewsor gani
    zat
    ions･Howdot hefeedback
    st
    ruct
    urea ndst
    rengt
    hofthevari
    ousloopsdiff
    erintheprof
    essi
    onalma rke
    t
    comparedt ot
    hehomema rket
    ?Wha timpa c
    tdothesedif
    fer
    enceshaveon
    efect
    ives t
    rat
    egy?
    5.Sinc eVHSbe camet hedomi nantst
    a nda r
    d,othertapef orma tsandvi deo
    t
    e chnologieshavebe enintroducedfort hehomema rket,especial
    ly
    i
    ne xpensivec amc or
    ders.
    Ava ri
    etyofc amc ordertapea ndc a
    ssett
    efor mats
    coexi s
    t,i
    nc l
    uding8mm,S uperOrhi8mm,Pa nasonic'sca sse
    ttetechnology,
    andot hers.Noneoft heseha sbecomedomi na nt.
    Howdot heusesof
    camc ordersandt hedeter
    mi nantsofc amc orderatt
    ra c
    tivene s
    sdifer
    compa redtot hehomeVCRma rket?Howdot hesedi ffere
    nc esaff
    ec tthe
    st
    re ngthofthef eedbac
    kl oopsinyourmode l?Wha tisthel i
    kelyimpa ctof
    he
    t sediffere
    nc esonthedyna micsandons t
    r a
    tegi
    e sfors uccessinthe
    camc orderma rket?

    10.
    堵 PosmvEFEEDBAeK:TMEENGE
    NEOFCORPORATEGROWTH
    Thene twor ka ndc ompl eme nta
    rygoodse fe ctst
    ha tdomi natedthee volut i
    onoft he
    VCRma rke tarebutt woofma nypos itivef eedba c
    kst hatcandr ivetheg rowt hofa
    bus iness.Thi ss ecti
    ons urveyss omeoft hei mporta ntpos it
    ivef eedbac kst ha tcan
    ca useaf irmt ogr ow. Si ncepa t
    hde pende nc eari
    seswhe npos it
    ivef e
    e dba cksdo m-
    ina t
    eas ys tem, thepre va l
    enc eofpos i
    tivel oopsinc orpor at
    egr owthme a nst hatthe
    pot ent
    ialf orpa thde †
    )e ndenc einthee vol utionofc orpora t
    ions,indus t
    ries .andt he
    ec onomya sawhol eisgr ea t
    ,
    Thedi agr amsbe lowpr e s
    entthel oopsi nahi ghl ysimpl ifi
    edf orma t,f ocuslng
    ont hes alesofas i
    ngl ef i
    rmi na nindus t
    r y.Thedi agr amsdonote xplici
    tlys howt he
    compe t
    itor s,butallfirmsi napa rt
    icularma r
    ketarel inkedt hroug
    hc ompe titionfor
    ma r
    ketsha rea ndt hroughma te
    r i
    alsandl aborma rke ts,fi
    na ncialma rkets, distri
    bu-
    tionne twor ks ,t
    heme di a,andt hesocia lfa bri
    cinge ne r
    al.Thedi a
    gr amsa lsoomi t
    thema nyne gativefee dba cksthatc a
    nha ltthegr owt hoft hef ir
    m･
    Ch
    apt
    er10 Pa
    thDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndP
    osi
    t
    iveFe
    edb
    ack 365

    1
    0.4
    .1 Pr
    odu
    ctAwar
    ene
    ss
    Howdopot e nti
    a lc ustome rsbe comea wa reofaf ir m' spr oduc ts?The rea ref our
    pr lnC l
    pa lc ha nne ls:a dve r
    tlSlng,di rects alese 批) rt,wor dofmout h,a ndme dia
    atte ntion.Ea c hoft hes echa nne lsc reatespos i
    tivef eedba c ks(Figur es1 0- 1 0a nd
    l 0- ll).
    Inmos tfirmst hea dvert
    i si
    ngbudge t( suppor ti
    nga ds, t
    ra deshows , andt hel ike)
    gr owsr oughl ya sthec ompa nya ndr eve nuegr ow. La rgera dve rti
    singbudge tsha ve
    twoe ffe c
    ts :( 1)mo r
    epot entialc ust
    ome r sa rema dea wa reoft hepr oduc ta nd
    choos et oe nt ert
    hema rke t(loo pRl );(2)t ot hee xtentt hea dvertis
    ingi se ffe ct
    ive,
    mor eoft hos ewhoa rea wa rea ndi nthema rketa rel ike l
    yt obuyt hepr oduc tof-
    fer edbyt hec ompa ny( R2) A
    Si mi larly,thel arge rther evenueoft hef irm, theg r
    eat e
    r
    thes alesbudge t
    . Themor esa lesr epresent atives ,andt hegr e at
    erthe irs killa nde x-
    pe rienc e,themor ec allstheyc anma ke,t hemo ret imet he yca ns pe ndwi thc us-

    tome rs,a ndt hemor ee fe c


    tivet he i
    rc allswi llbe,i ncrea slngbot ht ota li ndus try
    de ma nd( R3)a ndt hes hareoft het otalde ma ndwonbyt hef i
    rm( R4) .
    Whi leaf i
    nc ontrol si
    tsa dve rtlSl
    nga nds alesbudge t
    s, wor dofmout ha ndme -
    diaa ttentiona rela rgelyout sidet hef irm' sdi rectc ont r
    ol( Fi gure1 0- ll ).s s
    A ales
    boos tthei nsta l
    ledba sea ndthenumbe rofc us t
    ome rswhoha vee xperie nc ewi t
    ht he
    pr oduc t,f avor ablewo rdofmout hi nc reas esa wa re nes s,inc reasi
    ngt ot alde ma nd
    (R5)a nda l
    sope rsua dingmor epe oplet opur cha set hepr oduc tsoft hef irm( R6) .
    Ahotpr oduc torcompa nywi l
    la lsoa tt
    rac tme diaa ttention,whi ch,i ff a vo rabl e,
    Stimul atesa ddi t
    iona la wa r
    enes sa ndboos tsma r kets ha res til
    lmor e( R7- 9) . The re
    arema nypr oces sesbywhi c haf ir
    m orpr oduc tc anbe c omehot( po pul ar )and
    attra ctuns olic i
    tedme diaa t
    tent i
    on.St rongl yf avora blewor dofmout hc ans t
    imu-
    1ateme diacove rage,e specill
    a yf orhi ghl yi nnova t
    ivene wpr oduc t
    sa ndpr oduc t
    s

    FI
    GURE10-
    10 Ad
    ver
    ti
    si
    nganddi
    rec
    tsal
    ese
    ffondr
    i
    veawar
    enes
    soft
    hepr
    oduc
    t.

    J) sal
    es/ / /ー ､ ､ ＼
    ＼
    素
    Revenue

    I
    〟/
    謡
    ndust
    ry AwaXne
    s
    .
    s
    f l
    s Mar
    .
    es
    k
    .
    et
    Sh
    A
    Sd
    a
    Sv
    e
    r
    ef
    rt
    i
    r
    s
    om
    ;mg
    ;;
    .
    Demand f
    romAds Share

    ㌍ ･号 も+ 4
    ..＼㌣-｣ dve蜘
    / g 鯉 i,
    Shaef
    r r
    om
    Sa
    JesEf
    for
    t

    At
    tract
    iveness
    3
    66 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    Fl
    GURE10-
    11 Ho
    wwor
    dofmou
    thandmedi
    arepor
    tscr
    eat
    eahotpr
    odu
    ct

    thatshowwe llo nte levisi


    on. Ra pidgr owt hofs a les ,reve nue, pro恥 O rs toc kprice
    cana lsoa t
    tractme diaa ttentiona ndt ur nthepr oduc tint oas oc i
    alphe nome non.
    Ama z
    on. C
    ompr ovi de sapr omi nente xa mpl ef romt hel ate1 990S .
    Productshor t
    a ge s-a ndt hepr lCegOugl ng, pr Ofiteerlng, andne arriotst heyc an
    create
    …a ls
    oa ttr
    a ctme diaa tt
    e ntion. Shor t
    agesa ree spe ciall
    yI mpo rt
    anti nc r
    e at
    ing
    theimpr essi
    onapr oduc tishotf orc ons ume rgoodss ucha st oys( rece nte xa mples
    incl
    udeBe anieBa bi esa ndFur bies ).Foot ageoff re nzieds hoppe rstrampl i
    nge ach
    othertoge tthel astTi c
    kleMeEl mot hewe e kbe foreChr istma scanmul ti
    plyt he
    crowdsa tthema lle xpone nt i
    a l
    ly.
    Thes t
    rengthoft he seloo psde pe ndsofc ourseont hea t
    tractivenessoft hepr od-
    uct;ane xc el
    lentpr oduc tof fer eda tagoodpr iceWi l
    lbee asiertos ella ndwi l
    l
    generatemo ref avor ablewo r
    dofmo utht hana nove rpriced, poorq ualitypr oduc t
    ･
    Whi choft hesec ha nne lsofa wa re nes sdomi natesde pe ndsont hepa rtict
    llarpr od-
    uctandma rket,andnota llfirmsut i
    liz ea llthreec ha nne l
    s .Fastf oodc ha insdonot
    haveadi rectsalesf orcea ndr elyi ns tea dona dve rt
    ising( andwo rdofmout h);
    specialt
    yt oolma ke rsf ocust he irr es our cesondi rec tsa l
    ese fforta nda dve rt
    ise
    muc hless.
    Thet i
    mede laysa nds tocka ndf lOws t
    ruc t
    ureoft hesef ourc hanne lsofa ware-
    nessalsodi ffer.Thede laysi ns ta rt
    lnga nds to ppl nga dve rt
    isingC ampa ignsa re
    shortrelat
    ivet obui ldingac ompe te nta nds killeds alesf orce.Wo rdofmout his
    we akwhe nane wpr oduc ti sfirstl aunc he dbutc ang rowr apidlya nddomi na tethe
    Ch
    apt
    er10 Pa
    thDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndP
    osi
    t
    iveF
    eed
    bac
    k 367

    FI
    GURE10-
    12 Spr
    eadi
    ngf
    i
    xedc
    ost
    sov
    eral
    argervol
    umel
    ower
    spr
    i
    ceandI
    eadst
    olar
    gervol
    umesl

    +
    Sal
    es 一 一一
    一
    Expect
    ed

    P
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    o
    FixedCostsof
    Mar.
    ketSi
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    l
    6
    ndust
    ry
    玩 Mar
    ket k(
    un ixed
    duc
    tion

    Demand
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    主=
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    Sha re fom
    r

    Sp read n
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    tCos
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    Produc t 1L Uni
    tVar
    iabl
    e
    At
    tr
    .act
    iveness + cost
    s
    L _
    _pri
    ceオ /

    Sourcesofi nfoma t
    ionavailabletothema rketa stheinst
    all
    edba segr ows .
    Theme -
    diaspotlighttendstoburnve rybrightforas hortwhi l
    e,thenfadesa st heatt
    enti
    on
    ofeditorsa ndaudiencemovesont othene xtob jectofdesir
    e.
    Fur t
    he r,whilethest
    rengt hofthea dvertl
    Slnga nddirectsalesloopsa reunde r
    thedirectcontrolofthefi
    rm, t
    hewor dofmout ha ndme dialoopsa renot .
    Wo rdof
    mouth( favor a
    bleandunf avor a
    ble)isdiff
    icultf orafirmtoc ontrol,thoughf i
    rms
    canstimul atecommuni ca
    tiona mongc ur r
    enta ndpot ent
    ialcust
    ome rsbys ponsor-
    1nguS er
    S'gr oupsandc o
    nfe r
    e ncesandbyhi r
    ingopi nionleadersa sspokespeople.
    Similarl
    y,t houghma nyfir
    mst odaya r
    ehi ghlys kil
    ledinme diare lat
    ions,ther
    ei s
    nosur e-
    firewa ytogetyourpr oductfeatur
    e donane tworkma gazines howo ralist
    ofhotwe bs i
    tes.

    ■ 4.
    沌 2 I
    Jni
    tDe
    vei
    opmen
    モCos
    ts
    Ma nypr oduc tsa nds ervic esi nvolvec onsiderableup-frontde velopme nta ndca -
    pa c
    itya C
    qul Sl
    tlOnc osts.Theg reaterthee xpec t
    edl i
    feti
    mes le
    a soft hepr oduc t,the
    lowe rt hef i
    xe dpr i
    cePe runi t,andt hel owe rpr l
    CeC anbewhi lesti
    lla chievingt he
    require dre t
    ur
    no ni nve stme nt( Figure1 0-12). Lowe rpricess timulatei ndus t
    ryde-

    ma nd( RI O)an dleadt oagr eatershar eoftha ttotal(Rll ,


    ) boos ti
    ngs alesa ndc ut-
    tingfixe dc ostspe runi tstillmor e.
    Thel argert
    heup- f
    rontc ostsofpr oductde velopmenta ndpr oduct i
    onc apaclty,
    thes t
    r onge rthe s
    el oopswi llbe･I nal abor-a ndma t
    erials
    - intensi
    vei ndus trys uc h
    ass ubs is
    tencea g
    rlCulture,f ixedc ostsa resma ll.
    Int e
    chnol og y-andknowl edge -in-
    tensivei ndus t
    riesinvol vings ignificantproduc tde vel
    opme nte fort, near l
    ya llthe
    costsa rei ncurredpr iort opr oduc ionoft
    t hef irs
    tunit.De ve loplngane wa utomo-
    bileorc omme rciala i
    rcraftc ostsseve ralbill
    iondol la
    rs;a llthede signa ndde ve ll
    opme ntc ostsa nda llthec os tsfo rcapa clt
    y,tOOling,trainlng,a ndma rke ti
    ngmus t
    bebor nebe f
    orej oboner ollsof fthel i
    ne.The re'sas aylngi nthes emi conduc tor
    368 Pa
    rtI
    II TheDyna
    mic
    sofGr
    owt
    h

    ind us trytha titc os tsaf ewbi lliont oma ket hef irstchi p,butt hena llther esta re
    free . So f
    twa red eve lo pme nti sthepa rad ig
    mc ase :Ast hei nteme tex pands ,thema r-
    g i
    na lc os to fdi stribut ioni sr apidl ya ppr oa ch i
    ngz e
    ro, whi l
    eu p-frontde velopme nt
    cos tsa rer lSln g･
    Thei nd us trie spowe rlngt hewo rl
    de cono mya rei nc reaslnglyknowl edge
    ba se d, andu pjr o ntc ostsc aptur eag rowi ngS har eoft het otalc ostsofpr oduc ti
    o n･
    Inawo rlddo mi na tedbyt he sepos itivel oo ps ,trad i
    ti
    ona lu1
    r e soft humbf orprlClng
    nol ong era p pl y. No tehowf ixedc os tpe runi td ependso ne xpe ctedvol ume. Whe n
    the sel oo psd omi na tet hedyna mi cs ,ex pecta ti
    o nsa boutho wl argel if
    e timevol ume
    wi llbec anbes tr ongl ys elf-f
    ul filling.I ma ginet wof irmswi t
    hi de nti
    c alcos ts
    launc hingi de ntic alpr oduc tsa tt hes amet ime .Onee xpe c
    tst owi na boutha lfthe
    ma r ke tande s tima te sma rke tpot ent ialc ons erva t
    ive l
    y,be lievlngl tC anl owe rpnc es
    asvo lu mee x pa nds .Theo the re xpe c tstowi nt hedo mina nts ha r
    eo ft hema rketa nd
    be l
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    lg re atlye x pa ndt o talde ma ndf orthec ategor y･Thea g-
    gre ssi vef irmt he ref ores e tspr ic esmuc hl owe rt hant hec ons ervativef irma nd
    mi g hte ve ni nit iallys e llatal os s. Thea gg re ssi
    vef i
    rmwi nsthel a
    rge sts hareo fthe
    ma r ke t,whi cha llowsi ttol owe rpr ice sStillf urther,whi l
    et hec ons ervativef irm
    findss aleso fi tspr od ucta red isappoi nting. Thee xpecta t
    ionso fbo thf irmsa ref ul-
    fill
    e da ndt he irme nta lmode lsa rer einfo r
    c ed･.Thea ggr essi
    v ef i
    rml ear nst
    ha tpr
    l C -

    1ngl ow,e ve nbe lowc ur r


    e ntuni tc os ts,Ca nl eadt oma rketdomi nanc eandhuge
    pro fits,whi lema na ge rsa tthec ons erva t
    ivef irml ea
    r nt obee venmo r
    ec autious
    abo utp ro jectings a les;ac l
    a ssice xa mpl eo fas el
    f-fulfil
    lingpr o phe cy( Me rto n
    19 48 /1968 ).
    Tho ughnots ho wni nthed iag ram, expe c t
    a t
    io nsofl ifet
    imevol umec a
    nde pe nd
    no to nl yo nc ur rents ale s,
    buta lsoo nf oreca stso fpo t
    e ntialind ustryde ma nd, ma r-
    ke tr e search,a ndknowl edgea bo utt hede velo pme nto fc ompl e me nt ar
    ygoods ･
    Ma nyo ft he seo the rpos sibleI nput st Oa丘r m' sbe li
    efa bou tma r
    ke tpo t
    entialals o
    clos epos it
    ivel oo ps . Sof t
    wa r
    es a lesf o r
    e castsr isea stechni calpr ogre ssinc omput er
    ha rdwa rel e adst of as t
    e randc he ape rc ompu ters;lowe rso ftwa repr lC eS
    ,i ntur n,
    stimu latethede ma ndf o rha rdwa retha the lpsma ketha tbe l
    iefar ea l
    ity.

    10.
    4.3 Pr
    iceandPr
    oduct
    ionCost
    Sprea di
    ngu p-fro ntde ve l
    opme ntcos t
    so veral arge rvol umei sno ttheo lywa
    n yt o
    lowe runitc osts. Fi gure1 0- 13showst hepos itivel oo psc reatedbye conomi eso f
    scaleinpr od uctio n, economi esofs c o
    pe ,1earnl ngC u rves ,a
    ndpr oc essinno vation･
    Eco nomi eso fs c al
    ed ife rfromt hed evelo pme ntc ostloopsd isc usseda bove .In
    ma nyi ndustr i
    es ,uni tc ostsf al
    la sthes ca l
    eo fpr oduc tionr i
    ses( a tleastupt oa
    point).La r
    ge rpa pe rmi l
    ls,oilr e
    fineries,andt herma lpowe rplantsa r
    eo鮎nmo re
    eficientthans ma ll
    erone s. The r
    ea rebo ththe rmo dyna mi ca ndo rga nizat
    i o
    nalr ea-
    sons.La rgerbo ile rs(e.g･,i
    nac oal-fi
    redpowe rpl ant)ha veal ar
    ge rr at
    ioo fvol ume
    tosu rf
    a cear eaa ndt herefor ehighe rtherma le ffi
    c i
    e ncy .Ina ddition,e ve r
    ypa per
    mill,oilrefinery ,a ndpowe rpl antr equir
    e sins trume n tat
    ion,s afetys ystems ,log lS
    -
    ic
    t sc apa c
    ityt Oha ndl eincomi nga ndo ut
    go l
    ngma terials,ando t
    he rf a
    c i
    liti
    es;si m-
    il
    arlye verybus ine ssmus tha veac er
    ta i
    nmi ni ma la mounto fa dmi nistrati
    ves t af
    ando ve rhe
    a d. Thec ostoft hesea cti
    vitiesus ua ll
    ydoe snotr isea sq uicklya sp ro-
    ductionvo lume ,s of ir
    msc anl owe rprlCeSa St he yg ro w, whichc re ateso pportuni-
    ti
    est oinc r
    e aset hes caleofo perationsf urt
    he r( R1 2)･Theo pportuni t
    yt or ealize
    Ch
    apt
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    athDe
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    i
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    eed
    bac
    k 3
    69

    GURE1
    FI 0-1
    3 Scal
    ean
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    andpr
    oces
    simpr
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    Eacheff
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    aregal
    nS,andone
    i
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    ghexpansi
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    .

    √
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    I
    nvestmentin

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    :
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    U
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    Exper
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    l
    Pr
    mpr
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    ＼ ＼ pr
    ice璽電 i
    十

    suche conomi e sofs calebyc ons oli


    da tingge ne ral,admi nis t
    ra t
    ive,a ndove rhe ad
    func t
    ionsi sapowe rfuldr iverofme r
    ge rsa nda cquisiti
    ons( Se es ection1 0.4. 8).An-
    otherpowe r
    f uls our ceofs calee conomi esa r
    ise sfrom di vi s
    i onofl abor. La rge ror-
    ganiz at
    ionsc ana for dtodi videthewor ki ntoi nc r
    ea sl
    ngl ys pe c i
    alizedt asks . I
    tha s
    longbe enobs erve d( atlea s
    ts i
    nc eAda m Smi th'sf amousdi s
    c ussionofapi nf a c
    -
    toryi nTheT Vea ltho fNat ions )thatdi vi s
    io nofl aborboos tsi ndividua lpr oduc t
    ivi y
    t
    andl eadst ol owe runi tc osts( Se
    es ection1 0.5) .
    Ec onomi esofs cope( R1 3)a risewhe naf ir
    mi sa blet os hareca pacity,l abor ,
    technica lknow- how,a ndot herres our cesa crossmul tiplepr oduc tl i
    nesa ndbus i
    -
    nessuni ts･Ca blet elevisionc ompa niesc a nofe rhi gh- spee di nterne tac ces sus lng
    thes amec ablene twor kwi thlowi ncreme nt a
    lc apitalcos ts.Shoppi ngma llsa nds o-
    calledc atego ryki llersi nofi ces uppl ies,t oys ,hardware ,a ndot he rr etailma rke t
    s
    reduc eduni tc ostsdr ama ticall
    ybyofe ringahuger a ngeofpr oduc tsunde ro ne
    veryl arger oo f.Thes eH bigbox"r etailer sa lsor educ e ds earchc ostsf ort he i
    r
    custome r sbyp rovi dingone -S
    tops ho ppingj us tOfft hef ree wa y,whi chboos ted
    produc ta tt
    ra ctivenes sa ndma rke tsha r
    ea tthee xpe ns eoft hes ma llers tor eson
    Ma inSt reet.7
    Le arnlngC urve sa lsoc reatepos itivel oopsf avor l
    ngt hel ea di
    ngf irm. Le a r
    nl ng
    (ore xperienc e)c ur vesha vebe endoc ume ntedi nawi der angeofi ndus trie s,from
    comme rc i
    ala ircraftt obr oilerchic kens( Te plitz1 991 ).Thel e ai ngc
    m urvea risesa s
    wo rkersa ndf i
    rmsl earnf rome xpe rienc e.Ase xpe rienc egr ows ,wo rke rsfndwa
    i ys
    towor kf astera ndr educ ee rrors. Typi cally,t heuni tc os tsofpr oduc tionf allbya

    7
    Thecos
    tso
    fmall
    s,i
    nte
    rmso
    ftr
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    cco
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    ti
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    deca
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    370 Pa
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    fixe dpe rce nt agee ver yt i


    meC umul ativepr oduc tione xperiencedoubl es･8F ore x-
    a mpl e,c os tsmi ghtf a l
    l30% Wi the a chdoubl ingofc umul ati
    veout put.Le arnlng
    cur ve swi th1 0-30%i mpr oveme ntpe rdoubl ingofe xpe r
    iencea r
    etypl Calinma ny
    indus t
    ries. Lowe runi tc ostse nablel owe rprlCeS ,incr easi
    ngbot hma rke tsha rea nd
    indus t
    ryde ma nd( R1 4)a ndboos t
    ings alesstillmo re.
    Fina lly,t hel argert hef ir
    m, theg reateritsinve st
    me ntinres earc
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    -

    me ntle adi ngt opr ocessi nnova tionst hatlowe rc osts( R1 5).Suc hres earchc a
    ni n-
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    udet hede ve lopme ntofmor ehi ghl ya utoma tedt ool i
    ng, mor ereli
    a blema chine s,
    andmor ee ffic ientpl antl ayout ･Itc ana lsoinc l
    udet rainingl nProc essimpr ove me nt
    techni que ss uc ha stotalqua l
    ityma na geme ntwhi che nhanc ethea bil
    ityofwor kers
    tode tecta ndc orre ctthes ourc esofde fe
    c t
    s, t
    husboos t
    ingPr Oduc t
    ivltya ndl owe -r
    1ngC OStS･
    Thede la ysa nds toc ka ndf lOws tructureofs c alea nds copee c
    onomi e sdi ff
    er
    from l e arni ngC ur ve sa ndpr oc essi mpr ove me nt.Sc alea nds copee conomi esde -
    pe ndont hec urrentvol umeofs al
    e sa ndbr e a
    dt hoft hef i
    rm' sa ct
    iviti
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    sition,f ore xa mpl e,ca nqui cklyboos ts calea nds cope.Si mi larl
    y ,ift hef ir
    m
    shr i
    nks ,itss c alea nds copee c onomi esa requi cklyl os tandt hepos itivefee dba cks
    reve rse, s
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    a cti
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    m ng, R&D,
    andt her es ult sofpr oc essi mpr ove me ntaree mbe dde di ntheo rganiza ti
    on'sc a
    pl ta
    l
    stoc k,wor ke rknowl edge,a ndr outine s.The ya r
    es lowe rtode ve lo
    p. Andi fs a l
    es
    turndown,c umul ati
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    vltytendt ope rs
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    depe ndi ngonhowt hef im downs
    r izes ).

    10･
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    wor
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    さds
    Asi ll
    us tratedbyt heVCRi ndus tr
    y ,theut il
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    ma nyot he rsa realsous ingi t(thene t
    wor ke fe ct;R1 6i nFi gur e1 0- 14)a ndon
    thea vaila bili
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    hi t( thec ompl eme ntarygood
    effect;R1 7).
    Compa tibili
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    tra cti
    ve ne ssa ndt husex-
    pandt het ot alsizeoft hema rket(justa sthegr owt hoft hei nter ne tma dec omput e
    r
    owne r s
    hi pmor eattr
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    dingmor epe opl etous ethei nte rne t).The seloops
    tendtof a vort hema rketshareleade rwi hi
    t nani ndus try,as sumi ngC OmPe tlngProd-
    uctsa rei nc ompa tible.Be sidesVCRs ,thec l
    a ssice xa mpl eoft he sel oopsi nthe
    1980sa nd90Swa stheba t
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    ef orc ont r
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    parti
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    Wi ntelpl atform.
    Justa si nt hec aseoff i
    xe dc osts( s
    e cti
    on1 0.4.2),t-1ede c i
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    dpa r
    ti
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    toproduc ec ompl eme ntar
    ygoodsf orapa rt
    icularpr oduc tde pe ndsont he irexpec-
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    Firmsc a ns ha pethos eexpe ctat
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    udi nge a
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    technicals pe ci
    ficati
    onswi thpot ent i
    alt hirdpa rtyde ve lope rsa nds ubs idiesfor
    adoptionOft hepl atform. Othe rstrategiesincludec onsor t
    iaa ndj oi ntVe nt uresWith

    B
    somet
    imest
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    mtl
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    vepr
    oduc
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    asi
    nArr
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    FI
    GURE10-
    14 Net
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    Eacheff
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    thi
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    10.
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    Anotherse tofposi
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    iors ervicea ndc us tome rs uppor tinfr a-
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    ena blings ti
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    produc tsa lsoi ncre as etota lde ma nd( R1 9).Fi naly,
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    ispr ima rilyf oc usedont hee arliestintroduc tionoft hef aste st,mos tpowe rf ulpr od-
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    et hef unda me nta lc hange si nthec omput erindus -
    tryc ause dbyt hemi cro proce ssora ndpe rsonalc omput e rr evolution.

    10.
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    Thede vel
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    -

    pati
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    tsa bo utl o啄o fitsreve nuei nR&D
    (mo ret han$2. 3bi lli
    o ni n1 997) , whi che nable sitt oo fert hef ast
    esta ndbe stPC-
    Compa tiblec hipa ta nyt lmea ndl eadst omo res alesg rowt ha ndmo reR良D. Power
    hung ryc omput e rus ersa rewi llingt opa yas ubs tantialprlCepr emi umf ort helat
    -
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    loopsa r ethos ebe stabl et oi de ntifyt hel ate
    n tne e dso fpo tenti
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    unde rstandwha tpe opl ed on' tye tk no wt heywa n to rcreateane edpe opled i
    dno t
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    m's
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    Thes tre ngthoft he sel oo psa lsod epe ndso nt hea bilit
    yt opr otec tinnova ti
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    i calt othes uc cessoft hene wpr oduc tde vel
    -
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    , amo ngo thers. Mor eimpo rtant,how-
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    gl nSOft hec lonema kers,We a keningt heira bilit
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    10.
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    Thel argeraf i
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    outitha swi thitss uppliers,wo rke rs,a ndc ustome r s
    .
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    u-
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    Profitabl egr owt hlea dst ohighe re xpec ta
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    a s.Thel owe r
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    Lowe rc os t
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    eas ei tsinves tme nti nca -
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    r . I
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    organi
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    10.
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    Thepr ec edin gs ec t
    io nsi de ntifie dmo ret ha nt hreedoz enpos iti
    vel oo pst ha tc an
    d rivet heg rowt hofab us ine s
    se nterpr ise. Ho wi mpo rtanta ret hey?I fthe sel oo ps
    ar es igni fica nt, thef ir
    ms( ori nd ustryg r oups )mos ts uc ce ssf
    uli ne x plo it
    ingt he m
    sho ulde xhi bitgr owt hr ate s,Pr ofitabi l
    ity,a ndma rke tsha ress ignifica ntlyhi g her
    tha na ve rageo ve re xtend e dpe riodsoft ime . Firmswhe ret hepos itivel o opso pe r
    -
    atea svi ciousc yc less ho uldy ieldpe rsistent lylowe rr eturns ･Ho we ve r, traditio nal
    ec ono mi ct he o rys ugg e stst hatma rke tsa redo mi na tedbyne gati
    vef e edba cks :If
    pr of i
    tsi na ni nd us trywe res ignifica ntlyhi g he rtha na ve rag e,existingf ir mswo uld
    ex pa nda ndn ewf irmswo ulde ntert hema rke t,ex pa nd i
    ngpr od uctiona ndpus hi ng
    pr icesdo wnun tilp ro fi
    tswe renohi ghe r,o na verag e, t
    ha ni na nyot he ri nd ustr yo r
    fo ra nyo t
    he rf irm( o nar isk- adjus t
    e dba sis).
    Thee xi sten ceo fpe r sistentdi ffere nc esi npr ofita bilit
    ya crossfirmsa ndi nd us-
    triesha sbe e ns tudi e di nte nsiv ely.Mue ller( 1977,1 98 6 )e xami nedal arges a mpl e
    o fthebi gg estUSi nd us t
    ria lfirmsa ndf ounds i
    gni fican tlyd iferen tr ateso fpr of i
    t
    ac ros sf iml S, eve nf orf irmswi thint hes amei ndus tryg r oup,a ndt ha tthe sed iffe r
    -
    enc espe rsisto ve rve ryl ongt imepe riods( atlea sts eve ralde cade s)･Cub bina nd
    Ge roski( 198 7)d oc ume nts imi l
    a rre sultsf o rUKf irmsa ndc onc l
    ud edt ha t" Wh ils
    t
    two- t
    hi rdsofo urs ampl ec onv ergedt o wa r dsac ommo npr o f
    itabili
    tyl eve l
    ,as o l
    id
    co reoff i
    rmsa p pe ra
    a blet oma intains o mei nd epe nde nc ef romma r
    ke tfo r
    c esmo re
    orl e ssi nde finite ly."Mu ellera lsoe xami ne dt hed yna mi cso fpr ofi
    tabi li
    ty ･Pre sum-
    abl yi ft hene ga t
    i vef eed ba cksoft radi ti
    ona le conomi csdo mina t
    e ,f irmswhos e
    pr of i
    tsa ref arf r oma ve ragea ta nyt i
    me( d uet ot ra nsients hoc ks)wo uldt endt oI
    wa rdt hea ve ra ge ,whi let hos ene ara ve ragewo uldt endt or e ma i
    nt her e･Mue ll
    er
    fo undj us tt heo ppos i
    te:Fi rmswi tha ve ragepr of itabilitywe re,o ve rt ime ,mo re
    like lyt oml g ra tet OS tate sOfe it
    he rs igni ficantlyhi ghe ro rs lgni ficant l
    yl owe r
    pr ofits. Firmswi thhi ghp rof i
    tsha dhi g he rtha ne x pe ctedpr obabiliti
    e so fc ont i nul
    lngt Oge ne ra t
    ehi ghp rofits; thepe rfo rma nc eoff irmswi thl owpr o fi
    tswa smo re
    like lyt ha ne x pe ct edt or e ma ind isappo lntlng･ The s edy nami csa rec o nsi s
    tentwi th
    thedi ffere ntiating, dise quilibriume ffec t
    so fthema nypos i
    tivef eedba cksd iscus sed
    abo ve.
    Wha tde termi ne swhe thert hepos itivel oopswi llo pe rateasv irtuo usc yc les
    leadi ngt og rowt ha ndhi g hp rofitabilityo rvi ciol
    jSC ycle strappingaf i
    rmi n-as e lf
    -
    reinf orc ingc yc leo fd ec li
    nea ndl owpr o f
    it?I nt hemos tsuc cessfulf irmsma nyof
    the sel oo psa c tinc o nce rt,g ene ratings ubs tant i
    als y nerg ies･Ac hュe ta l･( 199 5)e x-
    ami nedt hepe rfo rma nc eoft hef astes tgr o wi nga ndmos tpr o f
    itablef irmsi nt he
    U S- so -Calledgr owtht ige rs-t os eei fthef e edbac ksd r
    ivlngt h ei
    rg ro wt hc ou ldbe
    identifie d.They de finedag r owtht igera saf irmwhos es alesg rowt hr ateove rt he

    1
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    est
    er(1975b)d
    eve
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    samodel
    exp
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    in
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    nami
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    Ch
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    bac
    k 383

    pr lOr1 0ye a rswa st hre et ime sgr ea tert ha nt hea ve rageoft heS&P500a ndwhi ch
    out pe rforme dt heS&P500i nt ota lr eturnt os ha rehol de rsove rt hepr 10r5ye a rs. I
    n
    as a mpl eofmor et ha n1 200f irms ,97me tthes ec rite ria･Thegr owt ht ige rswe r
    e
    nota lls ma lls ta r
    tups :1 994S lesr
    a ange df rom $1 30mi lliont o$1 2. 5bi llion. No r
    we ret he ya llhi gh- t
    e chf irms :tho ug h28% oft het lge rSWe rei nt hec omput ers ec-
    tor( inc ludi ngI nte l,Mi c ros oft,Co mpa q,3Com,a ndSun) ,t her e ma inde ri nclude d
    firmsi ns uc hl ow- tech, ma turei ndus trie sa si ndus tia
    r le qul Pme nt ,bus ine ssa ndf i-
    na nc i als ervi ces ,retail,di stribut iona ndwhol es a li
    ng,a ppa re l,f a shiona nds por ts,
    a ndhe althc ar e( e ,
    % Ni ke,TheHomeDe pot ,USHe a lthc a re, Wi ll
    i ams ISo noma ,
    Uni te dAs setMa nage me nt,We rne rEnt erpr is es ,a ndNa ut ic a) .Sus ta ine dg rowt h
    a ndpr of itabi litya renotme r elyaf unc t
    ionofbe ingi nahoti ndus try( ofc our sehot
    indus trie sa rehotbe ca us et hepos it i
    vel oopsdr ivingt he irgr owt ha r
    es trong) .
    Thegr owt ht ige rsge ne r ateadi spr opo rtiona tes ha reoft hegr owt hi nt hee c on-
    omya sawhol e･ Whi lec ompr l Sl
    ngj us t8%oft hef i
    r msi nt hes a mpl e, the yc r eated
    1 5% oft het ot als alesgr owt h,28% oft hej obgr owt h,a nd47% oft hepr ofit
    gr owt h.Cl os ee xa mi na tions howe dt ha tt het lge rSdi dnotr e lyona nys i
    ngl epos i
    -
    tivel oopt odr ivet he irg rowt h buts uc ce ssf ull yus e dma nyoft hepos itivef eed-
    ba c ksdi scus s eda bovet oc re ates yne rgy. Mi c ros of ti st hepa ra digmc ase. Thec os t
    s
    ofpr oduc ings oftwa r
    ea rea lmos te nt ire lyup- f rontde ve lopme ntc os ts,s ot her - e
    duc tioni nuni tc os t
    sa st hes oftwa r ema rke te xpl ode di save rypowe rfulgr owt h
    dr ive r.Si mi larly ,Mi cr os oft '
    Se xpa ns ionf rom ope ra tlngS ys temst Oa ppl i cations ,
    thei nte rne t,ne wsne t
    wo r ks, publ ishi ng, aut omot ivec omput ing, a ndot he rma rke t
    s
    cr ea t
    e spowe rfuls c lea
    a nds co pee c ono mi es .Mi c ros ofta lsobe ne fitsf roml eanl
    r ng
    c urve sa ndf rom s ubs ta nt iali nve s tme nti npr oc es si mpr ove me ntf oc us e do ni m-
    pr ovi ngC us tome rne e dsa sse ssme nta nds pe e dings o氏wa rede ve lo pme nt. Itinve st
    s
    he a vilyl nPr oduc tdi f fere nt i
    a ti
    ona ndne wpr oduc tde ve lopme nt .Mi c r
    os oft'sfi-
    na nc ialc l
    oute na blesi tt opr e emptc ompe titionbya c qul r l
    ngr iva lsa ndpot entialr i
    -
    va ls ,of ten buyi ng s oftwa res tar t-upsa nd i nco rpor a ting t he irpr oduc t
    si nto
    Mi cros o打Sowna ppl ic ationsa ndo pe r atlngS ys tems .Mi c ros o打sma r ke tpowe re n-
    abl esi ttone got i
    a t
    ef avor abl edi stribut iona gr e eme nt sa ndpr ice swi thc omput er
    ma ke rs ･Itsgr owt ha llowsi tt or e cr uit血ebe s tpr ogr a mme r sa ndma na ge rsa nd
    compe ns atet he m wi ths toc kopt lOnS ,Whi chbui ldsade di ca teda ndpr oduc tive
    wo rkf or cea ndf ree supr e sour ce sf o ro the ri nves tme nt s. Mi c ros of t'
    spos itivec ash
    low a
    f ndhi ghpr lCe /ea rningsmul tipl ec uti tsc os tofc api ta lf a rbe low t ha tof
    we ake rr iva lsa ndr iskys tartups .Andg rowt hi spowe rful lydr ive nbyt hee xpa ns ive
    as pira tionsofBi llGa te s,avi sionheha s,t hr oug h awe ll-f unde dpubl icr e l
    a tions
    e批) rt,s uc c es sfu llya rtic ul atednotonl ywi thi nMi cr os of tbuti ns oc ie t
    ya tl arge
    thr oug hghos t-wr ittenboo ksa ndme di aa ppe ar anc es .
    Mos tofa ll ,Mi c ros of t'ss uc c e sss t ems血. om powe rfulne twor ka ndc ompl e-
    me nt arygoodse fe c t
    s . The sef e edba cksope r atet hr oughma nyc ha nne ls,l inki ng
    ha rdwa r ea rc hi tectur ea ndo pe ratlngS ys te ms ,Ope ratlngS ys temsa nda ppl ic ations ,
    appl i
    c ationsa ndus e rs,a nds of twa rea ndpr ogr amme rs .Thel a rgert hei ns talled
    ba seofMi c ros of tpr oduc ts,t hemo rea ttra ctivea rec omput e rsc ompa tibl ewi th
    thos epr oduc ts( powe r edbyl nte la ndl nt el-c ompa tibl ec hi ps ). Themo repe rsona l
    comput e rss ol dwi thl nt ell ns ide, thel ar ge rMi c ros o氏' si ns talle dba se, Thel a rger
    thei ns talledba s eofMi c ros ofto pe ra tlngS ys tems ,t hemor es of twa rewi llbede -
    ve lope df ort hos es ys temsbyt hir d- pa rtyde ve lope r s,a ndt hemor et hi rd-pa rty
    384 Pa
    rtI
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    sof twa ret he rei sthegr ea tert hea tt


    r active ne s soft heWi nt elpl a t
    for m.Thel a r
    ge r
    thenumbe rofpe o pleus lngMi cros oft '
    sa ppl ications ,themo rei mpor tanti ti sf or
    ot he rst oha vec ompa t
    ibles of t
    wa ret oe xc ha ngedoc ume ntswi thc ol league sa nd
    frie nds, sot hegr eaterthea ttra ct
    ive ne ssofMi cros of t'sappl ica t
    ions ･Andt hel a r
    ge r
    Mi cros of t
    'ss ha reoft hei ns talledba se, thegr e atert henumbe ra ndhi ghe rt hequa l
    -
    ityOfpr og r amme rs,s uppor tpe rsonne l,a ndI Tma na ge rst r ainedi nt hos es ys tems
    a ndt hes ca rc era rethos ef ami liarwi thot he ro pera tingS ys temsa nda ppl ica t
    ions .
    Powe re dbyt he sepos itivef eedba c ks ,Mi cros of tgr ewf rom i ts1 975f oundi ng
    toaf irm wi th1 997r evenuesof$1 1.3bi llion.ByAugus t1 999i tsma rke tc api
    -

    ta l
    iz ati
    onwa sne arl
    y$500bi l
    lion;byc ompa rison,Ge ne ralEl ectric,wi tha bout
    7t ime smor er e ve nuea nd9t imesmor ee mpl oye est ha nMi c rosoft, wa swor thl ess
    tha n$ 400bi llion.
    Bi llGa te si squl tea wa reOft hes epos itivef e edba cksa ndt he i
    rr o lei nhi ssuc I
    ce ss( Ta ble 0-
    1 1).
    Ofc our se ,gr owt hc annotc ontinuef or e ve r.Ul tima te ly,a sthel imi tstogr owt h
    ar ea ppr oa c he d,Va ri
    ousne ga tivef e edba cksmus tgr ow s tronge runt ilthe yove r
    -
    whe lmt hepos itivel oops .IfMi cros oftc ont i
    nuest ogr owa ti t
    shi s t
    or icalr a te,i t
    s
    sa leswo ul de xc e edt hegr os sdome sticpr oduc toft heUni tedSt a tesby201 8, whe n
    Bi llGa teswi llbeo nly63ye arsol d,e ve ni ft heUSe cono myke epsg rowl nga ti t
    s
    hi storica lra te.ll

    So meoft hene ga ti
    vef ee dba ckswe rea l
    r eadya ppa rentbyt hemi d1 990S ･Con-
    ce n ove
    r rMi c ros oft'sa bilityt ous et hepos iti
    vef ee dba c ksd rivingg rowt ht odom-
    ina tet hes of twa rema rke tpr ompt e di tsc ompe t
    ito rst oJ Ol nt oge the rt opr omot e
    Sun' sJa va . Mi cros oftha spr ove nt obea de pta tblunt l
    ngt he semove sthr oughwha t
    Bi llGa tesc a llsH e mbr a clnga nde xte ndi ng"t hei nnova t i
    onsofi t
    sc ompe t i
    tor sJt
    wa spr e cise lyc onc e rnove rMi crosof t'sa bi litytoe mbr ac ea nde xt end,t ous et he
    pos itivel oopst odomi natet hee me rgl ngdi gi tale c onomy,t ha tpr ompt edt heUS
    Jus ticeDe pa rtme nt '
    s1 998a nt i
    trus ts uitove rthebundl ingofMi cros o打sl nte rnet
    Expl ore rwi tht heWi ndowso pera t
    lngS ys tem.
    Nota llt hepos iti
    vef ee dba ckst ha tca ndr ivec or por ateg rowt ha rec ompa ti
    bl e
    wi thonea not he r.Pur s
    ui ngt hedi fe rent iations tra tegybyc harginghi ghe rpr i
    c es
    ba se dont hes upe rior i
    tyOfyourpr oduc tsa nds uppor tc a pa bilit
    iesc onf lictswi th
    us lngl owi ni tia lpr l
    C eStOd rivet hes ca lee c onomy,l ear nlngC ur ve,a ndne twor k/
    compl e me nta rygoodse ffe cts. Ma nyl ong- suc cess fulf irmss t
    umbl edwhe nthepos -
    itivel oo psdr ivi nggr owt hi nt he irindus tryc ha nge dwhi let he irstra tegydi dnot .
    Fore xa mpl e,t hef ail
    ur eofSony' SBe tama xc anbet rac edt oami sma tchbe twe en
    the irstrate gya ndt hedomi na ntloopsi nt hehomeVCRma rke t･Sonyha dl ongpur -
    sue das trate gye ml )ha s
    iz lngPr oduc tdi fe rentiationa ndi nno vation,a ndSony
    pr oductst yp ic allycomma nde das i gni fi
    ca ntpr iceP remi um r elative tot hos eof
    compet itor s. Sony' ss r
    tate gywor ke dve rywel linma rke tswher es tanda rdswe re
    alre adyest ab lis he d(sucha st elevision, stere oampl ifiers ,a ndcas settetapepl aye r s
    )
    butwasi nef fec tivei nama rke twhe r ene tworkeffe ctsa ndcompl ementa rya sse t
    s

    l
    lFr
    om1985thro
    uh 1997Mi
    g c
    roso
    ftsle
    a sg
    rewfro
    m$140mil
    li
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    36bi
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    yea
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    yea
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    esameper
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    USGDPg r
    ewfr
    o m$4181bi
    l
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    nto$8079bi
    ll
    ion
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    hr a
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    ear
    ･Att
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    egr
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    ecta
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    Cha
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    ndPos
    it
    iveFe
    edba
    ck 38
    5

    TABLE 1
    0-1
    Posi
    tiveFeedbaeks
    BHGat esuses
    sofB‖ Gat
    Comment es Referenced
    posit
    ivefeedback
    conceptstoguide "Thenetwor
    khasenoughuser snowthatitis
    Microsoft
    's
    benef
    it
    ingfr
    omt hepositi
    vefeedbackloop;the
    Str
    ategy. moreusersitgets,t
    hemor econtenti
    tgets,
    themoreusersitgets.Wewi t
    nessedthissame
    Phenomeヮa( sic)wi thappl icationavai l
    abi li
    ty･The
    mor eappr l
    Cationsar eoutt here, t
    hemor eat tracti
    ve
    thedevi cebecomes,andt hebet t
    ert hes oft
    war e
    busi nes sbecomes"( Interview,RedHer ring,Oc t. Networkand
    1 995) . ComplementaryGoods
    "Thi sisat imeper iodwher enowt her e'sabr oad Ef
    fect
    s( R16-
    17)
    awar enes sthatWi ndowsNTi sbyf art hehi ghes t
    -
    Vol umegener al pur poseser verpl atform. The
    gr owt htherecont inuest oamazeus,andi t'
    sa
    posi ti
    vef eedbackl oop. Aswegotmor e
    appl lcati
    ons,NTseⅣer sgotmor epopul ar .Asi t
    's
    got tenmor epopul ar ,we' vegotmor eappl i
    cat i
    ons"
    (Comput erRes ellerNews,23Septi 996)
    "lt'
    saHabou tsca一eeconomi esandmar ketshar e. UnitDevel
    opmentCosts
    Whenyou' r
    eshi ppl ngami " i
    onuni tsofWi ndows andScaleEconomies
    sof t
    war eamon th, youcanaf fordtospend$300 Loops(R10-12)
    mi Monayeari mpr ovl ngi tands ti
    l
    l se"atal ow
    pr i
    ce"( Fortune,1 4June1993) .
    "Thebi gges tadvant agewehavei st hatgood Loyal
    t
    yandQuali
    tyof
    devel oper sliketowor kwi t
    hgooddevel oper s" Workf
    orce(
    R28-
    29)
    (CusumanoandSel byi995,Mi crosof tSecr ets).
    "Mos tpeopl edon' tgetmi Hionsofpeopl egl vlng a
    Ler
    nlgC r
    n veand u

    them f eedbackaboutt heirpr oduc ts"Wehavet hi


    s cssl
    Pro mpr
    e ovement
    whol egroupoft wot housandpeopl ei nt heUS oop
    L R1 a
    s( nd 15)
    4 R

    alonet hattakesphonecal lsaboutourpr oduc ts


    andl ogsever ythingt hat '
    sdone.Sowehave
    abet terfeedbackl oop,l nCludingt hemar ket"
    (CusumanoandSel by1995,MI '
    crosof tSecr ets).

    (thei nstal
    ledbaseandavail
    abilit
    yoft apes),r
    a t
    he rtha nfeatures,qua l
    ity,orr
    e pu-
    tation,We rethemostimportantde t
    erminantsofpr oduc tat
    tracti
    venes s.Ma nagers
    ande ntre
    preneursmustdesi
    gnt heirgrowths t
    r ategybyi denti
    fvinEt hos epos
    itive
    loopsl ikelytobemos timportantintheirma rkets,mos tcompa tibl
    ewi thonea n-
    othe r
    ,a ndmos tc
    onsis
    tentwiththeca pabil
    it
    iesa ndr esourcesthef ir
    m eit he
    rhasor
    ca nde velop.

    1
    0.5 Pos汀IVEFEEDBACK,t
    NCREASI
    NG RETURNS ,
    AND EcoNOMe
    CGROWTH
    Thema nyposit
    ivefeedbacksdi
    scus
    sedinsect
    ionlO･
    4notonlydri
    vethegrowth
    ofindi
    vidualcorpor
    ationsbutpowerthegr
    owt hofent
    irei
    ndust
    riesandofthe
    386 P
    art
    III Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    e co no mya sawho le. Ther eco gnltio nt ha tpos itivef eed ba c ki sthee nglneO fe c o-
    no mi cg r owt hc anbet rac edba cka tl ea stt oAda m Smi th'sT Ve al ho
    t fNat io ns.
    Smi tha ndt heo the rc la ssicale co no mi st sd idnotdr awc aus aldi a gr ams ,butt he
    va riousf ee dba c ksa rec learlys e e
    ni nt he irwr it ings .Smi thf ocus e do nd ivisiono f
    la bo ra st hepr lnC lpa ls ou rceo fpr od uc tivltyg r owt h. Asapr oc e ssi sd i
    vid edi nt oa
    la rg ernumbe rofr o utiniz edo pe ratio ns ,prod uc tivl tyg rowsbe caus es pe cializatio n
    e na ble spe o plet ol e arnf aster,toc usto mi zet he i
    rt ool sa ndc api talt ot hes pe cific
    ta sk,a ndt oe l
    i mi na tet hewa stede fo rtt ha tc ome sf rommo vingf romo neo pe ra-
    tiont oa no the r.Sm it hno t
    e dtha t" thed ivi sionofl a bo ri sl imi tedbyt hee xtento f
    thema rke t,''rec og nl Zlngt hepos i
    tiv ef eed ba ckbywhi che c onomi cg rowt he nabl es
    g re aters pe cial i
    z atio n,whi chi nモ um l ea dst og rea terpr od uc tivltya nds ti
    llmo re
    e co no mi cg ro wt h.
    Ec ono mi s
    t sge ne ra l
    lyr efe rtot he sepos itivel oo psa si nc re as ingr eturns .The
    te rmd enot e sas itua tio ni nwhi cht heo ut putofapr oc es sinc rea sesmo ret ha npr o-
    po rtiona telya si tsI nput sgr ow, i
    nc ont rastt ot heus ua lsitua t
    iono fd i
    mi ni shingr e-
    tu ms ,whe reo utputs atur atesa sin put sg ro w( asi na g ricul ture, whe reha rve st
    sa re
    liit
    m edbyt hee xte nta ndf e
    rtilit
    yo fthel andnoma tterho wmuc hf erti
    liz ero rl a-
    bo ra rea ppl ie d) .Be side sAda m Smi thot he re arlyt he orie sofi nc re asingr eturns
    we r ede ve lo pe dbyAl血. e dMa rsha ll( in1 890)a ndAl lynYoung( in1 928;s e e
    Buc hana na ndYoo n1 99 4f ora ne xc ellentc olle ct iono fke ywo rksi nt hee con o m-
    ic sofi nc re as i
    ngr etu rns ).Fo rma lmod else mbody ingpos itivef ee d backsi nc lude
    Pa ulKr ugma n'S( 1 979)mode lso fi nt erna ti
    ona lt ra dea ndPa ulRo me r'S( 199 0)
    mo delso fe ndoge no use c ono mi cg ro wt h.
    Kr ug ma n, fo re xa mpl e ,no tedt ha tint het rad itiona le c o nomi ct he oryo ftra de,
    do mi na tedbydi mi ni shingr eturns( ne gativef ee d ba cks ),t woi de nt ic ale cono mi es
    wo ul dha venoi nc ent ivet otr ade,s inc et hegr ea tert ra ns po rtatio nc ostso ft rade
    woul dma kei tmo ree fficientf ore a cht opr od uc et hegoodst he yne e dl oc ally.
    Ho we ve r,int hepr es enc eo fpos i
    tivef eed bac ki tbe come sa dvant age ousf ort het wo
    ec o nomi e st ot r adee ve nt houg ht he yha vei de nt ica lr eso ur ces ,te chno log leS,a nd
    cons ume rpr ef ere nc e s.Thea ppa rent lypa ra doxi ca lr e sulta rise sbe caus ebo t
    h
    ec o nomi e sc a npr od uc emo rei fe ac hs pe cia l
    ize si nt hepr od uc tio no fo nec lassof
    goodsa ndt rade swi tht heothe rf T
    orther e stthe yde sire-s pe cializ atio nboos tspr o-
    d uc tivity, he nc et ot alo utputinc reas es. Ⅰ
    nt ere stlngl y ,int hec aseo fi ni t
    iallyi de nti-
    ca le co nomi es, itdoe sn'tm at e
    t rwh ichs ubs etofgo odse ac hc ho os est opr od ucea s
    lo nga st he ys pe c ialize;in pract ic et hec ho ic ewoul dbede termi ne dbyc ha nc e
    eve ntse a rlyi nt hehi s t
    o ry oft radingr elat i
    o ns, lea dingt ot hec lass ica lpa t
    hde pe n-
    de nc ea na lyz eda bove.
    Thei mpl ica tionso fPositivefe e dba cka 1
    3pl vno to lvt
    n ona tionse nEa Eedi ni n-
    terna t
    iona ltra debuta lsoto any distinc te cono mi ce nt itiest ha tc ane xc ha ngego ods
    wi tho the rs, inc ludi ngr e glOnSW i thin as lng lena tion, citiesa ndt o wnswi thinar e-
    glOn, ne igh bor hoodswi hin aclty,Ore
    t ve nt heme mbe rsofaf ami ly. Whe nt hepos -
    itivef ee dba c ksc re ate dby division ofl abo r,s ca lea nds co pee c ono mi es ,lea r
    nl ng
    bydoi ng,a nds oo na res rong,Spe
    t cial i
    z ationa ndt ra dec a nqui ckl yt ransfo rma n
    initi al
    lyi de nt i
    c a lge og raph yi nto ah gh
    i lyva r lega te dl ands c apewi ths pe cialize d
    ce nt erso fi ndus tr ys uc ha ssilicon val leyo rtheNe wYo rkdi amo ndd ist
    rict.
    Ro me rs ho we dhowg rowt hforan e co no mya sawhol ec oul da risef ro ms o me
    oft hepos itivel oo psd escribe d above ,pa rticula rlyt hos er elatingt or esea rcha nd
    Ch
    apt
    er10 P
    athDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndP
    osi
    t
    iveFe
    edb
    ack 387

    de velopme nt,learningbydoi ng, ando therinve s


    tme ntsinhuma nc apital.Incr ea s
    -
    1ngr eturnsarisebe causetheknowl edgec reat
    edbyR&Do re mpl o yeet rainlng, for
    exa mpl e,canno tbeke ptfullypr lVate.Whi leama c hinet oo lca nonl ybeus e di n
    onepl acea tatime ,knowl edgeo fho wt ode si
    g nama c
    hi net oolc anbeus edby
    mo rethano ne丘r ma tat i
    me; kno wl edgei snotc ons ume dbyus aget hewa yma te-
    rialgo odsa r
    e.Co nsequently,af i
    rm' sinve st
    me ntsinR&Da ndt ra i
    nlng, fo rexa m-
    ple ,no tonlybe nefitthef i
    rm buta ls
    os pillove rt obe nef itothe rfirms .Int he
    lang uageofe co nomi cs,thesespillove r
    sc reat
    ee xternalities, thatis,be ne fi
    tsext e r
    -

    nalt ot hefirm. The see xter


    na li
    tiess peede conomi cg r owt hbe caus ethe ybe ne fi
    t
    ma n ybe sid
    e sthef i
    rmunde rtakingt hei nvest
    me nt,i ncrea s
    l ngt het otals izeo ft he
    ma rketa ndf ur
    the rstre
    ng theningt hema nypos i
    tivel oo pstha tde pe ndo nthes c ale
    ofa ct
    ivltylna ni ndustryo rr eglOn.Ro me ralsos howe dt ha tbe causei ndivid ual
    fir
    msge nerall
    ydon' tunde rstanda ndc an'ttakea dva ntageoft hebe ne f
    itst he i
    r
    n owl
    k e dgeinve stmentsc reatefort hee conomya sawho le, therei sat ende ncyf or
    fi
    m st
    r ound eri
    nv e s
    tinhuma nc a
    pi talandR&D.

    1
    0.6 DoESTHEEcoNOMY LocK I
    NTO I
    NFER1
    0RTECHNOLOGI
    ES?
    Onec ons e que nceo fpa thde pend enc eist hatr ando me ve nt se a rl
    yl nt hee vo l
    ut ion
    o fas ys t
    e mc a npus hi tdowno nepa tho ra no the r.The ser a ndo ms hoc ksc a nbe
    sma lla ndmi ghtgounnot ice da tt het ime ,o re veni nhi nds ig ht.The yc ani nvol ve
    cha nc ee ve ntswi thint hef ir
    msi nt hei nd ustryo rs pi l
    love rsf romunr e lat
    edpo liti
    -
    ca l
    ,te chn ic al,ors ocile
    a ve ntsint hewo rlda tlarg e･ Thepos itivef eedba cksa mpl ify
    thed i
    ffe re ncesa mo ngt hec onte nde rsuntilo nee me r
    gesa st hes t
    a nda rda nddo mi -
    na t
    e st hei ndus try.Suc ce ssbe ge tss ucce ss.Ast hewi nne re me rge s,thec ostso f
    swi tchingf romo nes tanda rdt oa no he
    t rbe c omeg reatera ndgr ea terunt ilthes ys-
    teml ocksi nt otha te quilibr i
    um. ThePo lyap ro cessde scribe di ns ec tion1 0.2s ho ws
    howpa thde pe nde nc eandl oc ki nc a no ccurwhe na ll equilibr iaa rei nitiall
    ye qually
    attr
    a ctive . Itdo esn'tma tterwhe the rwed riveo nt her ighto rl e fto rwhe t
    he rcloc ks
    goc loc kwi seo rc ount er cloc kwi se ,S olo nga swea l
    lc hoos et hes amed irection.
    Mor ec ont rove rsialist heno ti
    o nt hatpa thde pe nde ncec anl e adt hee cono myt o
    locki nt oe quil
    ibria-t opr od ucts ,techno log leS,andwa ysofl ife-t ha tarei nfeio
    r r
    too the rst ha tmi ghtha vebe e nc hos en(se e,e 蛋.
    . ,Ar thur1 99 4) .
    Ift hedomi nantd etemi na nto fp roduc ta t
    trac tivene ssi sc o mpa ti
    bi li
    tya ndt he
    avail abilityofc ompl e me nt arygoods( e･g･,VCRs ,pe r
    s ona lc omput e rs,keyboa rd
    layo uts) ,the naf irmmi ghtbe co met hema rke tle ad ere vent ho ughi tst echno log y
    isinf erior .Ma nya rguet ha ttheVCRi ndus t
    ryp rov idesa ne xa mpl eofl ocki nt oa n
    infbrio rte chno logy ,po lntlngOu ttha tBe tama xo ffer edsu pe rio rpIC tureq ua lit
    ya nd
    isto da yt hes tan dardf orpr ofe ssio nalvi deoe qui pme nt( ot he rsf oc uso nVHS' S
    long erpl ayt imet oa rguet ha titwa sa ft
    era llthes u pe ri
    o rtec hnol og y) . TheMa cin-
    tosho pe ra ti
    ngS ys temWa sC le arlys u periort oMi cr oso打sDOSa nde arlyv e r
    s i
    o ns
    ofWi nd ows ,ye tMi cros o打ss ys temsbe camet hes t
    anda rdwhi l
    et heMa cintos h
    stead i
    lyl ostma rke ts ha re.TheQWERTY ke y boa rdi nve nt edbyChr istophe r
    Shol esi nt he1 870si swi delyc ons ide r
    e dt obei nf eriort ot he1 936Dvo rakke y-
    boar di nt e rmso ftra i
    ningt ime , tyPl ngs pe ed, erro rr a
    tes ,ba lanc ebe twe enthel e f
    t
    andr ig ht ha nds ,andc omf ort,ye tne arl
    ye v eryonec o nti
    nue st ol eant
    r heQWERTY
    388 Pa
    rtI
    II Th
    eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    la
    yout･
    12Thei rra
    tionalEngli
    shs ys
    tem ofmeasur
    eme nt
    ,withitsfeet
    ,ya r
    ds ,

    pounds,ga
    llons
    ,anda c
    res,i
    sclea
    rlyinf
    eri
    ort
    otheme t
    ri
    csystemyetcont
    inuesto
    beusedintheUS.
    Thel i
    kel ihoodofl oc ki ngl nt Oa ni nf eriort echnol ogyi nc reas esWi tht he
    strengt hoft hepos itivel oopst ha tc onf era dva ntaget ot hema rke tlea deri nde pe n-
    de ntoft hea ttribut esoft het ec hnol ogyl tSe lf,Thes tronge rthene twor k,compa ti
    -
    bility,de vel opme ntc os t,ma rke tpowe r,a ndgol denr ul el oops ,themor el i
    ke lyi tis
    theul tima t ewi nne rwi llbede ter mi nedbyf ac t
    or sunr ela t
    edt opr oduc tqua l
    ity,
    func t
    iona l
    ity,a ndf ea tures .Cont inue dloc ki nt ot heQWERTYkeyboa rdi sdue
    tot hegr ea ti mpor tanc eofc ompl ement aryas sets,s pe cifi
    cal ly,t ypi stst rained
    inQWERTY Thes wi tchingc os tsofr et
    rini
    a ngt hehugei ns talledbas eoft ypi s
    tsi n
    theDvor a ks ys tem out we ight hea dva ntageofDvor ak, pe rpe t
    ua tingt hedomi nanc e
    ofQWERTY. 13
    Thepr eva le nceofpos itivef eedba cksi nt heeconomydoesoc casiona llyca us e
    locki nt oi nfe riort ec hnol ogi es . Butt hei ssuei sc ons ide rabl ymor ecompl ex. Tec h-
    nol ogi ese vol ve. Ani niia
    t llyi nfe riort echnol ogymi ghtwi nt heba t
    tlef orma r
    ke t
    sha rea ndeme rgeasanew s tanda rd,butl ateri mpr oveme ntsmi ghtove rcomei ts
    initialde f i
    ci enc ies .Mi cros of ta galnPr ovi desa ne xampl e･TheDOSope ratlngS ys
    -

    tem wasunques tiona bl yi nf er i


    ort ot heMa cint osh,ye tMi cros of tbe ca met hei n-
    dus trys tanda rdwhi let heMa cwi the red.Mi c rosof twast he na bl etoi mi tatethe
    gra phica li nte rfaceoft heMa c,i nc orpor at i
    ngma nyOfi tsf eatur esi nt heWi ndows
    ope ra t
    lngS ys te m. Thef irstve rsionsofWi ndows ,thr oughWi ndows3. 1,we res il
    t l
    clea rlyi nfe riort ot heMa c intos h.ButMi cr os oft'sdomi na ncea llowe di ttoi nves t
    hea vi l
    yi nf ur theri mpr ove me nt s.Wi ndows95a nd98,i nt hej udgme ntofma ny,
    clos edmos toft hega p,a ndf ur t
    he ri nnova tionwi l
    lnodoubtl ea dt os til
    lgr eater
    func tiona lity. h i
    W let hene twor ka ndcompl e ment arygoodsl oopsdi dlea dt hes oft-
    wa rei ndus tryt ol oc ki nt oat echnol ogyt ha twasi nfer i
    ora tthet ime,t henewpr od
    -

    uctde ve lopme nta nddi ffere nt i


    a ti
    onl oopsgr adua llye r asedt hede fici
    t .Ofc our se,
    theMa ci ntos hope ra t
    lngS ys te m WOul dpr es uma blyha veevol veda tahi ghe rr ate
    hadi twont heba tt
    l ea ndbe comet hes tanda rdJti se nt irelypos s ibl etha tcomput er
    use rswoul dha vebe enbe tte rof fi ft hei ni t
    ia llys upe riort e chnol ogyha dwon. I
    ti s
    notpos s i
    bl et oa ns we rs uchques ti
    onsde finitive l
    ybe ca us eweca nne verkn Owhow
    muc hbe ttert hel os ersmi ghtha vebe come.
    Amor es ubt lei s s
    uec onc e rnst hecoe vol ut ionofpeopl e'st as teswi t
    ht echnol -
    ogy.Peopl e' spr efe renc esa renots ta ti
    c;t he ye vol vea ndc ha ngewi the xpe rienc e･
    Yourl ikesa nddi slikesa da ptt oyourc ir cums ta
    nces .Thea mountofs altorhot
    peppe rpeopl econs iderpa lata ble, thea mountofpe rsonals pa c epe opler equlre,the

    12
    Th erel
    at
    iveme it
    r sofQWERTYa ndDvo r
    akarestil
    ldebat
    ed.Lie
    bowitzandMa rgo
    ls(1990)
    i
    ar
    guethatmanyo ft
    hes tu
    diessho
    wi ngthes
    up e
    ri
    orl
    tyO ftheDv o
    raklayo
    utaref
    la wed.
    Thepre -

    pond
    eranceoftheevidence,ho
    wever,sugge
    stsDvorak'sla
    y ou
    tismo r
    eefici
    entthanQWERTY.
    13
    Asa noth
    erex a
    mp le,Moxnes(1992)dev
    e l
    opsamo d
    elshowinghowa neconomyc a
    nlock
    i
    ntoani n
    feri
    oren e
    rgysupplysys
    tem; se
    eals
    oFi dd
    a Tan(1997)･Ste
    rmana n
    dWi tte
    nber
    g(1999)
    dev
    elopamo delofsci
    e nt
    if
    icrevo
    luti
    onwh os
    ed ynamicsexhibi
    tstr
    ongpat
    hd ependenc
    eandfind
    ha
    t tt
    hep rob
    abili
    tyaglVenhteor
    yrisestOdoin
    m anc
    ei nit
    sd is
    ci
    plin
    eisonlyweaklyrel
    ate
    dtoits
    i
    ntr
    ins
    icexplanat
    orypo werwhil
    estrongl
    ydeter
    in
    m edb yen ir
    v onment
    lc
    a ondi
    ti
    on satt
    heti
    meo f
    i
    tsfo
    und i
    ng.
    Ch
    apt
    er10 Pa
    thDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndPo
    si
    ti
    veFe
    edb
    ack 389

    amountofl eisuret imea nda cc esstoo pe ns pacepe opl ede sirea l


    lv∬ywi dely
    acros scul tures
    . Ha bituationi sapowe r
    fu lproc ess.
    Si mila rl
    y,peo ple'Seva luationofat echnol ogyc a
    ndi fferove rtimee ve nt hough
    thet echnol ogyI t
    se lfma ynotc ha nge.Ma nyc itydwe ll
    e rslivemor eorl es sha ppily
    ine nvironme ntsnoi sier,mor ec rowde d,a ndmor epollute dthana nythe ira nce s
    tors
    coul dha vei ma gine dort ol erat
    e d.Oure va l
    ua ti
    onsoft hea tt
    ract
    ivenes sa nddes ir
    -
    abilit
    yoft hee nse mbl eoft ec
    hnol ogl e
    Sa nds ocialstr
    uc turesmode ms oc ietyha s
    beenl oc ke dintofort hepa st50ye rsd
    a ife rfromt hewa ywewoul dha vee va luated
    themi n1 950.Be ca usepe ople'spr eferenc es,tast
    es,ands tandardsa rema l
    leable,
    technol ogya ndo ura ssess ment sa ndr eac t
    ionst oitc oe volve･Ga ruda ndRa ppa
    (1994)S howhows uc hc oe volutions hape dthee me rgenc eofcoc hlearimpl ants,a
    technol ogyt oprovi dehe aringf ort hepr ofoundl yde af･Ri valtechnologl e Sledt o
    compe tl
    ngnot ionsofwha ts ucc esswo uldme a nforpatient srecei
    vlngthet echno1-
    ogy( e.蛋. ,theabi l
    ityt ode c odes pe echatal owe rcostort ohe a
    rawi de rs pec t
    rum
    ofs ounda tahi ghe rcost),ul t
    ima t
    e l
    ya ffec t
    inggove rnme ntregul a
    tionsa nds tan-
    dardsf ort het echnol ogy.

    1
    0.7 LI
    M!TSTO L
    tocK 【
    N
    ThePol yamode la nde xampl esofpa t
    hde pe nde nc es ugge sttha tpa thde pe nde nt
    sys t
    emsr api dlyl oc kint oas t
    abl ee qui l
    ibr ium,whi cht he npe rsistsinde finitely.
    Thec l
    oc kwi s ec onve nti
    onwa se stablishe dbyt he1 500S .Thepr l
    meme ridia nc on-
    tinuest obel oc atedi nGr eenwi cht hought hes unhasl ongs inc es etont heBr it
    is h
    empi re.Andt heQWERTYke yboa rdha sbe e nt heba neoft ypi ngs t
    ude nt sf orove r
    ac entur y. Ar ea l
    lpa th-depende nts ys temspe r
    pe t
    ua l
    lyt rappe di nt hee qui li
    br iat o
    whi chc ha nc ee ve ntsleadthe m?I st he renoes c ape?
    The r ea rema nye xampl esinwhi c hadomi na nts t
    a ndar dwa sove r
    thr own. Suc h
    revolutionsus uallyoc curwhe nthes ys t
    emi nwhi cht hes tanda rdi sdomi na ntbe-
    Come sobs ole teo ri sits
    elfove rt
    hr own. Thedi nos aursr ule dt hee arthf ormi ll
    ions
    ofye ars, buta f te
    rac atas
    trophica ster oidimpa c tc ausedma sse xtinctionst hro ugh-
    outthepl a nta nda nima lkingdoms ,dinos aur sdi dnotr ee me rge･Thei mpa c tde -
    Stroyedt hee cos ys t
    emi nwhi chthedi nos aur sha dbe comet hedomi na nts ta nda rd･
    Int ermsoft hePol yapr ocess,t hema sse xt inc ti
    one ve ntr e move dmos toft he
    stones( spe cies )fromt hej ar(availa blee col ogi calnic hes) ,Sot hatt hes e lectionof
    ne ws tones( t
    hee vol ut
    ionofne ws pe cies)wa sonc ea ga ins trongl yinflue nc edby
    random e ve nts .Li f
    ef il
    ledthej aronc ea gain,butdi fe rentf or msofl ifebe came
    domi na nt.14
    Inapr oc es sSc humpe terf amo us lyd ubbe dc rea t
    ivede struc tion,e conomi cde -
    pr es
    sionsc a nun freezea ne conomyt hatha sl ockedi nt oc e rtaint ec hnol ogl eS･
    Eve rye c onomyne edsba si
    ct echnol ogi esf ore nergy,t rans por tation,a ndc ommu-
    nicati
    ons .Ane ns embl eoftechnol og leSa ndi nfr astuc
    r turebui lta roundc oa l, steam,
    rail,a
    ndt het ele graphdomi na tedthei ndus t
    ri ali
    z edwor ldi nt hel a tel ワtha nde arly
    20thc ent ur i
    es .Popul at
    ionsa ndi ndus trywe rec onc entra t
    e di nl argec i
    tiess ur -
    rounde dbyf arma ndf orest
    . The sete chnol ogl eSa nds ett
    leme ntpa tternswe res elf-
    reinforclng.Coa lha saf air
    lyl owe ne rgyde ns l
    t ya ndi sdi fficul ttoha ndl e,whi c h

    1
    4seeGo
    uld(1990)f
    ord
    isc
    uss
    io
    nofp
    athd
    epe
    nde
    ncei
    nev
    olu
    ti
    on.
    390 P
    art
    II Th
    I eDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    favo rsc e ntralizeds ettleme nt pa tter nsa ndt r ans po rtmo de sl iker aila nds teams hi p･
    Te leg raphl ine swe reof tens t
    ru nga lo ngt her ailroa dr ighto fwa y ,lowe rlngt hec os t
    ofi nf rastruc turea ndma i
    nt ena nc e･Thec oa l-ste am- r ail-te legr aphe ns embl er e-
    ma ine ddo mi na ntunt ilt heGr ea tDe pr e ssionoft he1 93 0S .Thede pr es sio n
    ba nk upt
    r e dma nyo fthef i
    rmsi nt he sei nd us tries ,he
    t irphys ica lin frastuc
    r turede -
    terio rate d, andt hepowe ro ft he irl ea de rswa ned.
    Whe nt hee co no mybe gant or e c ove rf r
    om t hede pr e ssio ni ne a rne sta fter
    WWI I, ne wi nv e st
    me ntdi dno tr ec re atea ndr efu rbisht heol dne two r ksa ndt e c
    - h
    nol oie
    g sbutf o cus edi nste adonane we ns e mbl eofba s ict e chno log leS｡ Thene w
    economyo fthepos twa re rawa sbui l ta roundo il
    ,na tur alga s ,a nde lec triclt
    yf or
    ene rg y;i nte ma lc o mbus tio na nde le ctricmot orsf orme c ha nic alpowe r;a ut
    - o
    mo bile sa nda ircraftf o rt ra nspo rtatio n;a ndt ele pho ne ,r ad io,a ndt elevi sionf or
    colnmuni cation. Thes u bu rbse me rge da ndi ndus tria llo ca tionpa tte msbe ca mel e ss
    cent ra l
    iz ed･ The set ech no log i
    e sWe r ea lsomut ua ll
    yr einf o rclng: Ca tal
    yt icc ra cki ng
    ena bl edc rud eo iltober ef inedi nt oga solinea tl owc os t;ga so li
    nei sa ne ne r gy-
    dens e,e a s
    ilyha nd ledf ue ls ui tabl ef o ral argef le etofs ma llv ehi clesa ndd ece ntr l-
    a
    izeds ettleme ntpa tterms ;i nter na lc ombus tione ngl ne Sa reS ma l
    la ndpo we rf ul
    eno ug ht ous ei na ircra ft;a nds oo n. Al lthe set ec hno logl eSWe rei nv ent edwe llbe -
    foret he1 93 0S ,butt hec os tsofs wi tc hingwe repr ohi bitivebe c aus et he ywe rei-n
    compa tiblewi tht hee xistinge ns e mbl eoft ec hnol ogl e Sa nds oc ials truc t
    u re s.
    De spi tet he irg reatpot en tial, t
    hene wi nve nt ionsc oul dno ta chi evewi de spr eadus e
    untilt heo ldi nfra st
    ruc tu re-p hys ical, soc ial, andpo liti
    c al-wa ss we pta wa ybyt he
    Gr ea tDe pr e s
    s iona ndSe co ndWor ldWa r
    . Thed e pr essio na ndwa rf unc tione da s
    ama s se xt inctio ne ve ntt ha te ra sedt heba sisf o rt heo ldt ec hnol og le Sa ndt he
    fi
    rmst ha tdo mi nate dt he m･J us ta sne wf o rmsofl i
    f ee vo lvea ftere ve ryma ss
    extinc t
    io n,ane wa ndd i
    ffe rente co no mye me rg eswi tht her ec ove ryf r ome ve ry
    ma jo rde pre ssion.15
    Gr ea tu phe ava lss uc ha sd epr es sio nso rwa rsa reno tne e de dt oun fre ezeas ys -
    temt ha tha sl oc kedi nt oapa rticul are qui librium｡Shi f tsi nt e ch nol ogi cala r chi -
    tectur eo ftenunde rmi net heba sisf わrt hedomi na nc eofapa rticul art ec hnol ogy ,
    standa rd,o rf irm.Thet rans isto rma deva c uum t ube so bs o lete ,a ndno neoft he
    leade rsi nt heva cuumt ubei nd us trywe rea bl et ot ra nsla tet he ird omi na nc ei nt he
    oldt e chnol og yI nt oal ea de rshipr olei nt hes olid- Statewo rld. He nd e r
    s ona ndCl ark
    (1990)s howt ha tdo mi na ntf irms( a tl ea stins omei nd us trie s)ra relyma inta i
    nt he ir
    leade rshi ppos it
    ions ,o re ve ns ur vive ,a fte
    rs uc hc ha nge si npr oduc ta rc hitec tur e.
    Thes a mepos itivel oo pst ha tc onf erc umul a tivea dva n tag et oaf i
    r mb ybui ldingup
    netwo rkso fs ki l
    ls, re l
    a tions hips ,andknow- hows pe cifict ot hef i
    rm' Ste chno logy
    andma rke ta l
    s oc re atei ne rtiaa ndr igi diyt
    t ha tma kei td iffic ultt oa d optar adi c al
    andi nco mpa t
    iblene wt e chnol og y( seeSa stry1 997) .

    Thea rchi tectur als hi ftst ha tu n de rmi ne t hedom ina ntd e signa ndd omi na nt
    fi
    rmsi na ni nd ustryo fte nari sef romi nnovati onsc reated b yt hos eve ryf i
    rms .The
    comput eri ndus trypr o vi de sa not he re xa mpl e･Fi rm s s uc ha sI BM a ndDi gita l
    Equi pme nt bec ameh uge lys uc c es s
    f ult hro ughe x ploitatio nofma n yo ft hepos itive

    1
    5F
    orfu
    rt
    herdi
    sc
    uss
    io
    nofth
    eint
    er
    acti
    onbe
    twe
    enec
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    m y cl
    esa
    ndt
    hee
    vol
    ut
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    nof
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    t
    ec
    hnol
    ogi
    es
    ,seeGr
    aha
    ma n
    dSeng
    e(1980)a
    ndSt
    er
    man(1986).
    Ch
    apt
    er10 Pa
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    fe edba cksdes cribe da bove,e spe cia l


    lyt hedi fe re ntia t
    iona ndi nnova t
    ionl oops
    (S ectionsl O･ 4･5a ndl O･ 4･6) ･ Bypr ovid ings upe riors e rvicea nds uppor t(IBM)a nd
    te chni c ll
    a ye xc ell
    e ntpr od uc ts( Di gi t
    a l),thes ef irmswe rea bl et ocha r
    gec ompa ra-
    tive lyhi ghpr ices;i nt um,hi ghma rgl nSPr ovi de dt her e sour cesf orf ur t
    he rinve st-
    me nti ndi ffe rentiationa ndi nnova tion. The s
    edi ffe rentia t
    ions trategle Swo rkedve r
    y
    we lldur ingt hee arlyye ar soft hec omput erindus trywhe nt hec ostsofc omput e r
    s
    we reve ryhi g h, vol ume swe res ma ll,de ve lopme nta ndc apa cltyc os tsWe reamod-
    e stf rac t
    ionoft otalc os ts,a ndc omput e rswe reus e df oral imi teds etofs pe cialized
    func tionsi nc en t
    ralda tapr oc es singC ent er s
    .
    Asc omput ersbe camec he ape r,mo rewi de lya va ilabl e,a nde a siert ous e ,se r-
    vi cea nds uppo rtbe camel es simpo rtant .Whe npe opl ebuyane wPCe very2ye a r
    s
    toke e pupwi tht echni ca lpr ogr es s,wa rra ntyt ermsa nds er vi cec apa bilitya rel e s
    s
    impor tant ;whe na ppl ica t
    ionsus eapol nta ndc licki nte rfac e,t rainlnga nds uppor t
    ar el es si mpor tanta se mpl oye est ea cht he ms e l
    vesa ndea chot he r
    . Ast hec ostof
    ma nuf a ctur ingf ellwhi let hec ompl exityofdes ignsi nc rea s ed,upjr ontde ve lop-
    me ntc ost sbe camemo rea ndmo r ei mpor tant .Asc omput lngc ostsf ell,comput ing
    be c amede ce ntralize d･Ins tea dofamul timi lli
    ondol larma inf rames e que steredi na
    c old,c lea nr oom,t hee mpl oye e snowha dac omput e ront he irdes k. Ne two rki ng
    andc ompa tibi li
    tybe ca memuc hmor ei mpor t ant .Thee xpl odi ngnumbe rofc om-
    put er si nus ec reat
    e dl uc rativema rke tsf ora ppl ica tionst ha ti nduc edt hirdpa r
    tie sto
    ent ert hes of twa rema rke t,bot hgr e atlys tr
    e ngt he ni ngt hec ompl eme ntarygoods
    fe edba cka ndr educ ingt heha rdwa r ema ke rs'c ont r olove rt hes ec ompl eme nt ary
    goods .
    Theve rys ucces soft hec o mput e rindus tryl ne Xpl oiting血epos itivei nnova tion
    andpr oduc tdi fe r
    e ntiationl oo psc aus e dt hes ef ee dba c kst owe aken, de stroylngt he
    ef fective nes soft hes trategi est ha tha dc r ea t
    edt ha ts uc cess .Di fferent i
    ationbe c ame
    les sa ndl e s simpor ta nt,whi l ec ompa ti
    bi litya nds of twa r ea va i l
    abi l
    itybe camemor e
    andmor ei mpo rtant ･Suc c es si nama rke tdomi na te dbyc ompa ti
    bi li
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    ava ilabi lity, ande conomi e sofs caler equi reda ggr es sive lyl owe rprlC eSt Oge ne ra t
    e
    thevol umer e quiredt oof fs ethi ghde ve lopme ntc os tsa ndwi nt heba ttl
    ef orma rket
    sha re･ Ma infr amea ndmi ni comput erma ke rsl ikeI BM,Di gi talEqui pme nt ,
    Wa ng
    La bor a tor ies ,Da t
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    loopdomi na nc et he yt he ms elve she lpe dt obr inga bout ･Thes ef irmss udde ly
    n
    foundt he ms e l
    ve swi thc a pa bi l
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    gr osslyoutofa li
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    t her equl reme nt Sfors uc c es s･ Whe reonc ethe yr ode
    thepos i
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    l
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    10.
    8 M oDEuNG PATH DEPENDENCEANDSTANDARDS FoRMAT1
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    Thel i
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    3
    92 P
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    develo
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    thde pe
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    1
    0.8.
    1 Model
    Str
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    Theba ttlef ordo mi nanc ebe twe enBe tama xa ndVHSi sty pica lo fs ta
    nda rdsf o r
    -
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    o nf orne wp r odu ctsinma rke tswhe ret heu ti
    liy oft
    t hepr od uc tde pe ndsont he
    siz eo fthei ns t
    alle dba sea ndt hene two rko fus ers.Onef axma c hin ei sno tus e fu1-
    fa xma ch ineso nl ybe c omeus efulwhe nt herei sane t
    wo r
    ko fo the rc ompa tiblema -
    chi ne s.Ma nypr od uc tsd epe ndo nt hea va ilabil
    ityo fc o mpl e me nt aryr esour ce s
    :
    pe rsona lc omp ute rsa renotus efl wi
    u ho
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    no tus efulwi thoutne two rkso fr oads, gas oli
    nes t
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    fra st
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    rac ti
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    da rdde pe ndso ni tsi nstalledba se,a ndma rke tsha rewi llde pe ndo nt her elative
    attrac t
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    a nda r
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    tur eo fas i
    mpl emode lt oc apturet he sef ee dbacks .Thed iagr amr e present st wo
    pr oduc tsc ompe tlngt Obet hes tandardi nama r
    ket.Thepr o duc tsa rea ssume dt obe
    inc ompa tible.Toke ept hemode la ssimpl ea spos sible,o nlyt hemos tba si cpos i
    -
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    de termi na ntso fpr od ucta ttract
    ivene ssa rede li
    beratelye x clud ed. Thec halleng eat
    thee ndo fthi sse ctioni nv ite
    syout oe xtendt hemode ltoi nc ludet he seva riables
    andot he rimpo rtan tloopss ucha sthepr oce ssbywhi c hde ve lope rso fc o mpl e me n-
    tarypr oduc tsc ho os ewhi c
    hf o r
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    Thei nstalledba seofe achf irmi sinc reas edbyt hes a
    le so fe a chf im'
    r spr od uct
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    ume di nt hes imul ationsbe l
    ow,b utt hemode lc an
    ac commo da tea nynumbe ro ffirms ).Fo rs impl icity,a s
    sumenod isc ardsa ndno
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    101
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    f
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    s
    ofPrd ucti
    (
    1
    o
    0-
    6)
    Threshol
    df o
    r
    ofProd
    ucti oInst
    all
    edBase
    [ o
    mpa t
    ibil
    it
    yEffec
    ts)
    ]
    Int hise quati
    on, at
    tractive nessri
    sese xponential
    lyast heins t
    alledbasegr owsr ela-
    tivet ot heThr esholdf orCompa t
    ibil
    ityEfec t
    s.Thepa rame terSensiivi
    t tyOfAt -
    tractivene s
    stoI nsta
    lledBa secontr
    olst hestre
    ngthoft hee ffect.Thethres holdisa
    sc al
    ingf actorthatrepres entsthesizeoft heinst
    alledba seabovewhi chne tworke f
    -
    fectsbe comei mpor tant ･
    16Thee xpone nti
    alcurvef ora tt
    rac t
    ivenessispl a
    usible:
    Whent herewe reonlyt wot el
    ephonesi ntheUni t
    edSt a t
    es,theut i
    li
    tyoft hephone
    wasnotve rygr eattot het hirdpotentialbuye r
    ,butwhe nt herewe re1 00mi l
    lion,
    theut ilit
    yoft het el
    ephonet othene xtbuye rwasmuc h,muc hgr eate
    r. Thee xpo-
    ne ntialfuncti
    onme ansa ttracti
    venessrisesatanincrea si
    ngr ateaStheins t
    alledbas e
    grows ･1
    7Thel a r
    gerthet hresholdforc ompa ti
    bili
    tye fe ct
    s,thel ar
    gerthei nstalled
    bas emus tbebef orei t
    se ffectona t
    tracti
    venessbegi nst oout weighthee ff
    ectsof
    othe rfac t
    orsofa tt
    racti
    ve ness.
    Forexa mple,Bet a
    ma x,asthefi
    rsthomeVCR f ormattoreachthema r
    -
    ket,hadal argerel
    a t
    iveadvanta
    geininsta
    lledbaseintheear
    lyyears
    .Buteven
    thoughthe
    r ewe r
    ema nymor eBetama
    xma chinesthanVHSma chi
    nesearl
    yon,
    the
    efe ctofthisrelat
    ivea dvant
    agewass l
    ight:sof e
    w peopl
    eha dma chi
    nest
    hat

    I6
    Ma thema t
    ica
    lly,
    o nl
    ytherat
    ioofth
    esensit
    ivl
    tytOthethre
    shol
    dma t
    ter
    s･Never
    thel
    ess
    ,也cyar
    e
    con
    ceptual
    lyd i
    sti
    n c
    t.Apply
    ingthesen
    sit
    iv
    ltytOthenor
    ma liz
    edrat
    ioo fin
    sta
    lle
    dba s
    ema k
    esit
    mucheasiertoint
    erprett
    hemo de
    l a
    ndparameter
    s.
    17
    Th eexp on
    ential
    fu n
    cio
    t nissi
    mp l
    eandc onve
    nienta
    n al
    ytl
    Cal
    lybut i
    snotrobu
    st･Wit
    hthe
    ex
    ponentia
    l fun
    cti
    o nforat
    tr
    acti
    venes
    stheincre
    aseinat
    tr
    a ct
    ive
    ness血.
    o ma dd
    inganoth
    eruni
    tto
    t
    heinst
    alle
    dba seisalwaysgre
    ate
    rthantha
    t ofth
    eu ni
    tbefore.
    Amo rer e
    ali
    st
    icfun
    cti
    onwo ul
    d
    sa
    tur
    ateforh i
    ghlevelsofth
    einst
    all
    edbase,r
    e p
    rese
    nti
    ngth eeve
    ntualdominanceofdi
    minis
    hin
    g
    r
    etur
    nsa st
    h eins
    tall
    edb as
    ebecomesveryl
    arge･Chapte
    r1 4dis
    cusse
    sth econs
    tuc
    r ti
    onofsuch
    non
    li
    nearfu nct
    ions.
    Ch
    apt
    er1
    0 Pa
    thDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndPo
    sit
    iv
    eFe
    edb
    ack 395

    compa t
    ibi
    li
    tywasnotye ta nis
    sueformos tpotent
    ialpurc
    haser
    s.Astheins
    tal
    led
    basegrew,howe ver,compa t
    ibi
    li
    tybegantoloom largeinpeopl
    e'sas
    ses
    smentsof
    productat
    tra
    c t
    iveness.
    I
    nthissimplemode ltheotherfact
    orsofattr
    a c
    tive
    nessareexoge
    nousandas-
    sumedt ovaryrandoml ya roundtheneutr
    alvalueofone:
    Ef
    fectofOtherFact
    ors St
    andardDeviat
    ion NoiseSee
    df or
    onAttr
    acti
    veness -NORMAL ofRandomEf fe
    cts, RandomEf f
    e c
    tson (
    10-
    7)
    ofProducti ( onAttra
    cti
    venes Att
    rac
    ti
    venessofProd
    uct

    whe r
    et heNORMAL( mea n,s tanda rdde viation, noi ses eed)f unc tions ampl esf rom
    anom a ldi st ri
    but ionwi thamea na nds tanda rddevi ati
    ons e tbyt hemode le r.The
    noi s es ee di sdi ffe rentf orea chpr oduc tt oe ns uret ha tther andom e fe ctsf orea c h
    pr oduc ta rei nde pe ndent ･18
    Thef ormul a tionf orma rkets har emee tsa llt hreec riteriaf oragoodf or mul a-
    tion.Thegr ea t
    e rt hea ttr ac ive
    t nes soff irmi ,thegr ea teritsma rke ts ha rewi llbe,
    Ma rke ts ha rei sz e roift hea ttrac t
    ive nes soft hef irm' spr oduc tsisz e roa ndloo鞄 i f
    thecompe t
    itor s'pr oduc t sa rec ompl ete lyuna tt
    r acti
    ve.Thes um oft hema rke t
    sha resf ora llf irmswi lla lwa yse qua ll oo鞄 f ora nynumbe roff irms . Thes epr op-
    ertieshol df ora nyf unc tionsr elatingPr oducta ttri
    but est oa ttrac ive
    t nes s･Ma ny
    sha pesf ort hei ndi vidua la ttractive nes sf unc tionsa repl aus ible.Theexpone nt ial
    funct ionus edhe rei ses pe cia ll
    yconve ni entbe ca usei tca nbet rans f
    or medi nt oa
    for mi nwhi c hma rke tsha resc anbee xpr essedasal inea rfunct ionoft hea t
    tibut
    r es
    ofpr oduc ta ttrac tivenes s ,a ll
    owl ngt hea ttractivenes sfunc tionst obees tima tedby
    standa r dr egr ess iont ec hni ques .Whe npr oducta ttractivenes si ss pe cifiedast he
    produc tofe xpone nt ilf
    a unc tionsofea c ha tt
    ribut e, t
    hef or mul a ionf
    t orma rke ts har e
    isknownasal ogi tfunc tion,bec a usema rkets ha reasaf unc tionofpr oduc ta t tib-
    r
    utesf ol lowsal ogi sticc ur ve･ 19
    Fi gur e10- 2 4i llustra test hel ogl tmodelf orva riousva luesoft hepa r a
    me ters.
    Thegr aphs howst hema rke ts ha reoff irm 1i nat woji r
    m ma rke ta si tsins talled
    bas evari es .Thei ns t
    alledba seoff i
    rm 2i sas sumedt obec ons tanta ndequa lt ot he
    thres hol df orc ompa ti
    bil itye fec ts .Thegr aphs howst her es ulti
    ngma rke tsha reof
    firm 1f ordi f fere ntva lue soft hes e nsitivltyOfa tt
    r acti
    ve nesst oins talledbas e. I na ll
    cas es ,whe nt hei ns tall
    edbas esoft het wopr oduc tsaree qua l( alongwi t
    ha llot he r
    fac torsofa t
    tr active ness ), ea chf irmr ece ivesha lfthema rket. Ma rke tsha refol lows
    thel ogl S ticc urvea sins t alledbas eva r ies･Not et ha tt hema rglna li mpa ctofa n
    inc reas ei ni ns tal ledbas eonma r kets ha redi mi nishesasi ns ta
    lle dbas ebec omes
    ve
    ryl
    arge:onc
    ema
    rke
    tsha
    rea
    ppr
    oac
    hes1
    00%,
    fur
    the
    rinc
    reas
    esi
    nat
    tra
    cti
    venes
    s

    1
    8Thef ormulati
    onfort
    herandome f
    fect
    sonattrac
    tive
    ne s
    suse
    dh er
    esel
    ect
    san ewr nd
    a omd r
    aw
    e
    ver
    ytlmeS t
    epin血es imulat
    io
    n.Thisiste
    chl
    li
    callynotcorr
    ect
    ,si
    n c
    echang
    lngthetimeste
    pfor
    u
    pdati
    ngth est
    atesofthemo d
    elwilldr
    ama t
    ic
    all
    ya lt
    erth
    er a
    ndoms hoc
    ksaf
    fect
    in
    gt hesyst
    em.
    "
    Random"s ho
    ck si
    nrels
    a yst
    emsarecorre
    lat
    ed,especi
    al
    lyo v
    ershor
    tti
    meframes,si
    ncerels
    a ys-
    t
    emshavei ner
    ti
    at ha
    tpreve
    n t
    sver
    yla r
    gechange
    si nthevalue
    sofvari
    abl
    esfr
    omo nemo mentto
    t
    henext
    .Amo rea pp
    roprl
    at
    emo delofthenoi
    seprocesswouldbeso-c
    all
    edpi
    nkno i
    se,tha
    tis
    ,

    n
    ois
    ethatiss e
    ri
    a ll
    ycorr
    ela
    ted.Se
    ea ppend
    ixBfo rmo de
    lsofpin
    kn oi
    sesui
    t
    ableforusein
    c
    ont
    inuoust i
    mes imul
    ati
    ons.
    1
    9Thep roper
    i
    t esandest
    imat
    ioniss
    uesforlo
    gltmo del
    sa n
    do t
    hermodel
    sofchoicearedi
    scus
    sed
    i
    nma n
    ys tat
    ist
    icstext
    s,e.
    g.
    ,Aldri
    cha l
    l
    dNe ls
    on(1984).
    396 r
    PatI
    II Th
    e Dyna
    m cso
    i fGrwt
    o h

    FIGURE 1 0- 24

    aruo!u∈!p)
    (
    ss
    Behavi oroft he

    0
    7
    5
    l
    ogi tmodel for
    mar ketshar e

    s
    a
    Twof i
    rmsar e

    0
    0
    5
    assumed. The

    a Jt
    9raPhshowsmar -
    Sl ?JL

    0
    ketshar eoff ir
    m1 a
    asaf unctionof
    嘗
    t
    M
    =

    i
    tsi n sta"edbas e
    rel
    at ivet ot he
    0.
    0 0.
    5 1.
    0 1.5
    threshol df orcom- Lnst
    aHedBaseofProducti
    patibi l
    it
    yef fec t
    s, Thr
    esholdforCompati
    bil
    nyEffects
    forvar i
    ousval ues (
    dimensi
    onl
    ess)

    ofthes ensitivi
    tyof
    attrac ti
    venesst o
    haveasmalle
    randsmallere
    ffects i
    ncethereissi
    mplyle s
    saddi
    ti
    ona
    lma rke
    tsha
    re
    i
    ns taH edbases.
    Thei ns t
    alledbase togain.Thegreat
    erthes ensi
    tivltyOfa t
    tract
    ivenes
    st otheinst
    alle
    dba se,t
    he
    offirm2i sas- shar
    perandstee
    perthelogist
    icc urve,andthemo rerapidl
    yshar
    ea pproac
    hesit
    s
    sumedt obe ext
    remevaluesasi
    nsta
    lledbaseva rie
    s.
    con s t
    an tand
    equa一 tothe 1
    0.8.
    2 ModeJBehavi
    or
    thr
    esho一 di n
    Tos imul atet hemode lthepa r ame terswe res eta ss howni nTa ble1 01 2. Inpa rt
    icu-
    allc as es.
    lar,t
    hes e nsitivltyOfa ttrac t
    ive ne sstoi ns t
    a lledba sei ss e
    tt o2, repres entlngamod-
    e s
    tne twor ke fe ct.I f,e arlyi nt hehi stor yoft hema rke t,thei ns t
    a l
    le dba seof
    produc t1i s20% oft het hre shol dwhi let ha toft hec ompe titori sl
    啄 o ,t hema rket
    sha
    re offim 1Wi
    r llbeonl y55%, event houg hi te n joysa2: 1a dva nt agei ninstalled
    ba s
    e. Ifthec ompe tit
    orha dl O0% oft het hr esho ldwhi lef irm 1ha d200% a smuc h
    (sti
    lla2: la dva nt age ),thema rkets har eoff i
    m lwoul
    r dt he nbe88%, rele
    f c
    tingt he
    g r
    eaterimpa ctofal a rgei nstalledba seona ttra ctive nes s･
    Thes imul ationbe ginswi thal eve lpla yingf ield: thepa ra me tersf orbot hf i
    ms
    r
    arei dentical,Theonl ydi fe r enc ebe twe ent hef irmsa risest hrought her andom
    variati
    onsi nt hea ttr
    a ctivenes sofea chpr oduc tf rom ot he rf actors .Thes erandom
    efe ctsarea s sume dt oha veave rys ma llst anda rdde viation, just1 %.
    Figur e1 0- 25s hows20s imul ationsoft hemode l.Pr iort othei ntroduc tionof
    anyr andomva riationsi npr oduc tattractive ne ssthet wof irmsha vet hes ameove r-
    alla t
    tractivenes s,a ndma r
    ke ts harer ema insa tt hei nitiale quilibr i
    um of50%.
    Whe nther ando me fe ctsbe gin,a tt i
    mez e ro,t hene twor ke ff
    e ctiswe ak,soma r-
    ketsha refluc tua tesr andoml yi nt hene i
    ghbor hoodof50%. Ast hei ns t
    alledba seof
    eachf im g
    r rows , howe ve r
    , t
    hepos iti
    vene two rkf e ed ba ckga insins t
    r engtha nda m-
    plif
    iesa nys ma lla dva ntagei ni nstalledba sec re ate dbyt her andom s hoc ksi nprod-
    ucta tt
    ractivenes s.Ast hei ns talledba sea dva nta geofonef irm gr ows ,thepos i
    ti
    ve
    networ kf eedba ckga inse venmor es tr eng th,f urhe
    t rboos tl
    ngt hema rke tshareof
    thele a
    de runt ils ha rea ppr oac he sl O0%. The rea reonl ytwos tablee quilibri
    a: com-
    pletema rke tdomi na nc eore xtinc t
    ion. Give nt hepa r ame ter sint hes imul at
    ion, t
    he
    systeml oc ksi nt ooneoft he see qui libriaqui ter api dly.
    Figur e1 0- 26s howst hedi str
    ibut ionofma rke ts haresf orf irm 1a tva ri
    ous
    ti
    mesi nas a
    mpl eof5000s imul ations .Prio rt oye ar0, the rea renor andome ffects
    Ch
    apt
    er10 P
    athDep
    end
    enc
    ean
    dPo
    si
    ti
    veF
    eed
    bac
    k 397

    TABLE 10-
    2
    T
    otal
    Deman
    d lmi
    "ionuni
    ts
    /year
    Par
    amet er
    sfor
    si
    mulat
    ionof Sensi
    ti
    vit
    yo fAtt
    ract
    i
    venessfr
    omlnstaH
    edBas
    e 2(
    dimensi
    onl
    ess)
    i
    nst
    aHedbas e Thres
    holdforCompat i
    bi
    li
    t
    yEffec
    ts lmi
    "ionuni
    ts
    model St
    andardDe viat
    ionofRandomEffec
    ts
    onAtt
    racti
    veness Ol(
    0. di
    men
    sionl
    ess)
    f
    nit
    iall
    nst
    a=edBas eProducti 1uni
    t
    I
    nit
    ial
    Time -1years
    Ti
    meSt
    epf
    orsi
    mul
    ati
    on 0,
    25years

    FIGURE10- 25
    Simulat
    ionsof
    thein
    s t
    aHed
    L∈Lに h
    0
    t
    7
    L
    )

    basemode一
    aJ

    Twen t
    ysimula-
    0
    O
    5
    eL

    ti
    onsar eshown.
    芯 JS 空eM

    Attimezerothe
    st
    andar ddevi
    ati
    on
    0
    2
    L
    L
    )

    oftherandomeト
    f
    ectsonpr oduct
    att
    ract
    iveness
    ri
    sesfrom - 10 1 2 3 4
    Ye
    ars
    5 6 7 8 9 10
    OtoO.01.
    andt hes yst
    e mi sba l
    a nce dont heuns ta blee qui li
    br i
    um of50% ma rkets har e.At
    timez er o,the丘r str andom s hoc ksbe gi nt ope rt
    ur bt hes ys te m,butt hepos itive
    fe edba cksha venotye tbe gunt oo pe rat
    e. Ma rke tsha r
    ei st i
    ght lyc l
    us ter
    e dbe twe en
    about49%a nd51 %, andt hedi s t
    r ibutionofma rke tshare sisno ma l(bells hape d).
    Thedi s
    tr i
    butionc ha ngesonl ys light lyf ort hef irstfe wye ar s
    ,e vena ft
    ert hef ee d-
    ba cksi nt hes ys tembe gint oope r ate.Byye ar4t heva rianc eoft hedi s
    tributionof
    ma rkets ha reshasgr owns ubs ta ntially,butt hedi st
    ributi ons t
    illa ppea rst obe
    roughl ynor ma l,wi t
    has lngl epe aka t50% ma rke tsha r
    e. Byye ar6,t hedi stri
    bu-
    tionha ss prea ds tillfur t
    he ra ndha sbe gunt obi furcatei ntot womodes .Thepos i
    -
    tivene t
    wor kf eedba cknowr apidl ydi fe rentiatesthet wof irmsf r
    om onea not he r
    ,
    unt ilonega l
    nSI OO% oft hema rke ta ndt heot heri swi pedout .Byyea r1 0,t he
    ma rkets hareoft hewi nni ngf irmi nne a rl
    ya l
    ls imul ationsi sg reat
    ert han95%.
    Thebe ha vioro fthemode li ss imi l
    a rtot henonl ine arPo l
    yapr ocessi ns ec t
    ion
    l O壬2= Howe verー hemode ラ lrelaxest her es t
    rictivea ss
    umpt ionso fthePol vamode l
    .
    Fi rst,t
    hemode lisf ormul a tedinc ont inuoust ime. Second, whe rethePol yapr oc ess
    se lectsonl yones t onepe rpe riod, eitherbl ac korwhi t
    e ,he r
    et ot alsalesa redi vide d
    int osimul tane ousa ndc ontinuousf lowsofs le
    a sf ore achpr od uct.Whe rethePol ya
    pr oc e
    ssc hoos e swh ichc olo rtoa ddba se donas lngler and ome vent,themode lhe re
    inc ludesmul tiples ourc esofr a ndomva ri ationi nc onsume rc hoi ces.
    Mos ti mpo rt
    a ntly,thea t
    trac tive nessofe ac hpr oduc tde pe ndsnotont hes izeof
    thei nstalledba ser e l
    ativet ot ha tofot he rpr oduc tsbutont hea bsolutes i
    z eofe a ch
    pr oduc t'
    si nstalledba se.I nt hePol y乱pr oces s,thepr oba bilityofs e l
    e ct
    lngagl Ve n
    col orde pe ndso nl yont hepr opor tionofs toneswi tht ha tcol ora l
    re adyi nt hej ar
    .
    398 Pa
    rtI
    II TheDyna
    mic
    sofGr
    owt
    h

    FI
    GURE10-
    26 Evol
    uti
    onoft
    hedi
    str
    ibut
    ionofmar
    ketshar
    e

    Thedi
    str
    ibuti
    onofmar
    ketsharef
    orFi
    rm 1i
    n5000si
    mulat
    ions,Shownever
    y2year
    s.Ver
    ti
    cal
    axi
    sis
    t
    heproport
    ionofsi
    mul
    ati
    onsfaHl
    ngWi
    thi
    neach5% i
    ncr
    ementofmar k
    etshar
    e.

    Mar e,
    ketShar
    Fir
    m1
    Ch
    apt
    er10 Pa
    thDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndP
    osi
    t
    iveF
    eed
    bac
    k 399

    Thi sa ssumpt l
    O ni snotr ea li
    s ticf orpr oduc tswi t
    hc ompa t
    ibi lit
    ya ndne twor k
    e ffec ts･ Fi rst,c ons ume rsa renotl ike lyt oknowt hei ns ta lledba s eofea chpr oduc t
    ,
    a ndt hede c isionr ul e sinmode lss houl dnotus ei nf orma tiont her ea lde cisionma k-
    e rsdono tha ve ･ Se cond, thePol yaa ssumpt 10nme anst hee fe ctofc ompa t
    ibi lit
    yon
    ma rke ts ha r eist hes amef oragi ve nr atiooft hei ns ta lledba sesoft hedi ffere nt
    pr oduc t s,noma tterhowl a rget hei ns ta ll
    e dba se. A2: li ns talledba sea dva nt a gef or
    VHSwoul dyi el dt hes amema rke ts ha rea dva nt a gewhe the rthei ns talledba sewa s
    20VHSt o1 0Be tama xma c hinesor20mi ll
    iont o1 0mi lli
    on.
    Pe o ple' sde cis ionsa rei nf
    lue nc e dbyc ompa tibi litywi tht hema c hinesowne d
    byot he rsi nt heirs oc ialne twor k. Thel arge rt hei ns ta lledba seofe achpr oduc t
    , the
    gr ea te rt hec ha nc et ha ta nypot e ntia lbuye rwi llha vef riendsa ndf ami lywhoa l-
    re adyownt hatf or ma t,Cl ea rly,whe nt hei ns talle dba seofpr oduc t
    si sve ryl ow,
    c ompa tibi lityl Snotye taf a ctorf orpr ospe ctivepur c ha se rs.Ast het ot ali ns talle d
    ba s
    egr owsa ndmor eoft hepe opl eapot e ntialbuye ri nt e ractswi t
    hha vet hepr od-
    uc t,c ompa ti
    bilitybe come spr ogr es sive lymor ei mpor ta nt.Thef ormul a tionf or
    pr oduc ta ttrac t
    ive nes sme e tst hisc riter i
    onbe c aus ei tde pe ndsont hes izeoft hei n-
    st all
    e dba s eofe ac hpr oduc t( sca le dbyt heThr e shol df わrCompa t
    ibi li
    tyE恥 c ts).
    Thee xpone nt i
    alf unc tionf ora ttrac tive ne ssr e duc e st hee ffectofdi fferenc e si ni n-
    st al
    le dba sewh ent het otali ns talledbas ei sve rys ma lla nda mpl iiest
    f hedi fe renc e
    a sthet ota lins talle dba segr ows .
    Asar e sul t
    , thes trengt hoft hepos it
    ivene two rkf e e dba c kinc rea s
    esa sthema r-
    ke tg rows ･The ses hi ftsi nl oopdomi na nc ec a nbei llus tra tedbyc ons truc tlngt he
    pha sepl o tf orthemode l･Thepha s epl ots howshowma rke ts ha ref oragl Ve nPr od-
    uc tde pe ndsont ha tpr oduc t'ss ha reoft het ot ali ns talle dba se.Thepha sepl oti s
    a nalogo ust ot hepha s epl otf ort heno li
    n ne arPol yapr oc es ss howni nFi gur el O1 6.
    Thef ra ctionoft hei ns talledba seofagl Ve nPr oduc ti sa na logoust othepr opor tion
    o fs tone sofag ive nc olora lre adyi nt hej ar ･Ma rke ts ha rei sa na logoust ot hepr o-b
    abi lityofa ddi ngas toneofagl Ve nC Ol ort ot hej ar.
    Asi nt hepr i
    orpha sepl ots ,t hef ixe dpoi nt s( Poi nt swhe ret hepha sepl ot
    cr oss est he45ol i
    ne )a ree qui li
    br iaf orma rke ts ha re( Fi gur el O1 27) .Whe ne ve rt he
    cur vede fini ngma rke ts ha rel iesa bovet he45ol ine ,ma rke ts ha ref orf irm 1e xI
    ce edsf irm l' ss ha r eoft hei ns ta lledba se,c aus lngf ir ml 'ss ha reoft hei ns talled
    ba set or ise . Th et raj ector yOft hes ys temmowsa longt hema rke ts ha rec ur vet othe
    right , towa r dahi ghe rs ha reoft hei ns ta ll
    e dba s e,unt i ls ha rer ea chese qui libr iuma t
    af ixe dpoi ntwhe rei tme etst he45ol ine. Conve r sely ,whe nt hepha s
    epl otl ie sbe l
    lowt he45ol ine ,fir ml '
    sma rke tsha rei sl esst ha ni tsc ur re nts ha reoft hei ns talled
    ba se ,s oi tss har eoft hei ns talle dba s ewi llf all･ Thet r aje cto r
    yOft hes ys temf lows
    alo ngt hepha sepl ott ot hel e 氏unt ilitc ome st oa not he re qui l
    ibr iumwhe rei tme e ts
    the45ol ine.
    Be ca us et hes ha reofi ns ta lledba ser i seswhe ne ve rma rke ts ha rei sa bovet he
    450l inea ndf a
    ll swhe ne ve rma rke ts ha rei sbe lowi t,thes tabi lityofa nye qui lib-
    riumpoi nti se a silyde ter mi ne df romt hepha s epl ot. Ift hes lopeoft hepha sepl o t
    ata ne qui li
    br i
    umpoi nti sgr e a t
    e rt ha n1 ,tha te qui l i
    br ium po inti suns tabl e.As l
    ig ht
    inc rea sei nt hepr oduc t'ss ha reofi ns talledba seca us esa ne ve ngr ea terinc rea sei n
    ma rke ts ha re,f ur the rboos tlngt hepr oduc t '
    ss ha reoft hei ns talle dba sea ndpr o-
    gr essive lymov i ngt hes ys t
    e ma wa yf r omt hee qui li
    br ium･ As lightde crea sei nt he
    pr oduc t'ss ha reofi ns t
    a lledba seca us e sal arge rdr o pl nma rke ts ha re,f ur the rr e -
    duc ingt hes ha reofi ns talledba sea ndmovl ngt hes ys te mf arhe
    t rt ot hel eft,a wa y
    400 P
    art
    IIIT
    heDy
    nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    FIGURE 1 0- 27
    Hy potheti
    c af
    pha seplo t
    sh owlngloc ati
    on
    an dstabili
    tyof

    〓
    equ‖ i
    bri
    a

    (
    npoJd.a LJS laq
    o

    ssal
    Fixedpoi nts

    u
    (wheret heph ase

    OS
    p一otcrossest he

    !u
    J e

    a
    45ol i
    ne)ar e

    u !P)
    theequi l
    ibria
    ofthes ystem.
    Je≡

    Fixedp oints
    wher etheph ase
    plothasasl ope
    greaterthan1ar e
    un st
    able;thos e
    withslopeJ ess
    t
    h an1ar es t
    ab l
    e.
    Arrowsi ndicate
    hs
    talf
    edBaseofPr oduct1
    t
    h eflowal ong Totall
    nstall
    edBase
    t
    h eph asepl ot.
    (dimensionles
    s)

    fromt hee quilibriumpo lnt･h e


    W nt hes lo peo fthepha sepl oti sg rea t
    ert ha nu nity,
    thes ys t
    em' sdy na micsa redo mina tedbyt hepos itivef eed ba cks .Whe n, ho we ver,
    thes lopeoft hepha seplota tane q uilibriu mpol nti sl esst ha n1 , t
    he nas lightd rop
    inpr od uctl 'ss ha reoft hei ns tal
    le dba sec ause sas ma ll
    e rd ropl nma rke tsha re.
    Sinc ema rke tsha ree xceedst hec ur r
    ents ha reo fthei nsta l
    le dba se ,thes ha reo f血e
    installedba sewi llincrease, raisingma rke ts harea ndmovl ngt hes ys t
    e mba ckto-
    wa rdt hee qui li
    br iumpoi nt･ Ani nc rea sei ni ns talledba seha sas i
    mi larc ompe n-

    satorye fe ctbe c ausethema rkets hareris e sbyl e sst ha nthei nstalledba se, dil
    uting
    thei nstal
    ledba seun ti
    lthes ys temr et
    umst ot heo rlglna le qu ili
    br i
    u m.
    Whe nthes lo peoft hepha sepl otisl e sstha nunl ty, t
    hes ys t
    em' sdy nami csare
    doi na
    m tedbyne gativefeed ba ck.Be caus ei ng ene ralt hepha seplo tisno n liner,
    a its
    slopeva r
    ies,a nda sitdo es,S otood oe sther e l
    ativei mpo rt
    a nc eo fthepos itivea nd
    nega ti
    vel oo psi nt hes ystem. Po i
    nt swhe r ethes lopeo ft hepha sepl ots hiftsfrom
    lesstha n1t og re aterthanlma rks hift
    si nl oo pdo mi na nc ef romne tne ga ti
    vet one t
    positivef eedba ck.
    1 1.r -
    Fig ti
    fe1 0-28S howst hepna sepl otf ort hema rke tsha remo dei･ Thepha seplo t
    showst hema rke tsha r
    eo ffirm 1a saf unc tiono fthepr o por tionofpr oduc t1i nt he
    tot
    a linstall
    edba s e.Ho we ver, unliket heno nline arPo lyapr oc ess(Fi gure1 0-6),the
    str
    eng tho fthepos i
    tivene two rke ffectl oo pg ro wsa st het ota linstalledba s
    eg rows .
    The reforethes ha peoft hepha sepl otr elatingf irm1 'sma rke tsha ret oi t
    sf r
    action
    oft het otalins talledba sec hang e sa st het otali ns t
    a ll
    e dba segr ows .Thef igure
    showsf ouro ft he sec urves, fors i
    tua tionswhe ret hec o mpe tit
    o r'
    si nstll
    a edba sei s
    0.10,0. 50,1 ,a nd2t i
    me st hes izeo ft het hr eshol df o rc ompa tibili
    tye ffec t
    s.The
    systema lwa ysha sa ne quilibriu m whe r
    et hema rke ts harea nds hareo fthet o t
    a l
    Ch
    apt
    er10 Pa
    thDe
    pen
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    cea
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    osi
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    iveFe
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    ack 401

    GURE 1
    FI 0-
    28
    Phasepl
    otf
    orne
    twor
    kef
    fec
    ts
    model
    Thephasepl otsh owst hemar ket

    L
    I
    (
    n
    U Od a
    s
    shareoff irm1asaf un ct
    l
    'Ono flts

    P
    s
    J
    l
    shareoft het otalins t
    a‖ edbas e.

    auO
    Thef unc t
    iondepen dsont hesizeof
    theinstalledbas eoft hec ompet itor

    !
    .J
    Sua∈!
    andi sshownf orf ourv aluesoHhe

    t
    0.
    50

    2
    LJ
    compe ti
    tor 'sinsta‖ edbas er el
    ative

    Sl
    tothethr eshol dforc ompat i
    bil
    i
    ty

    P)
    aUeL
    eff
    ects( B2 -J nsta" edBas e
    Product2 / Thresh o一df or
    N
    Compat i
    bi l
    it
    yEHec ts).Thear r
    ows
    showt hedi recti
    onoff lowf oreach
    Curve.
    Toderi
    vethephasepl
    ot,
    notethat
    marketshar
    eforf
    ir
    mlisglVenb y 0.
    00 0.
    25 0.
    50 0.
    75 1.
    00
    thel
    ogitmodel
    日
    nst
    aHedBaseofPr oduct1
    MS1 -Al
    /Al+A2)
    ( Tota日nst
    alledBase
    wher eMSi smar ke tshar ean dAi s (
    dimensionl
    ess)
    theat trac t
    ivenes sofeachpr oduct.
    As suml ngt heot heref f
    ec t
    son install
    e dba sea re50%. Howe ve r,thes hapeoft hec urve s ,andt he
    attr
    ac ti
    venes shav ean eut r
    aleff
    ec t,
    numbe rands tabilityofe qui li
    br ia,c hangedr ama ti
    c auya st he
    attr
    ac ti
    venes sisde t erminedonl yby
    thene twor kef fec t: ma r
    k et gr
    ow s.
    h e
    W nt
    het otali nstalledba seoft heindus tryi ssma l
    l,hene
    t t
    -
    A. -exp( sB.) wo r
    ke fectiswe a k. Thec ur vei nFi gur e10-28l abe l
    e dB2 -0. l
    wher es-Sensi tivit
    yof showshowma r
    ke ts ha reevol veswhe n也ec ompe tlt
    Or 'shs ta ue d
    Attrac t
    ivenes sf romCompa ti
    b冊y ba seisj ustlO%oft het hre shol df orc ompa t
    i bili
    tye fe cts.Whe n
    andBE i
    st hei n
    s taH edbas eof thei nstall
    edba sei sve rys ma ll,thene t
    wor ke fe ctiss owe akt hat
    produ ctir ela ti
    vet ot het hreshold the equ ili
    bi
    r um at 5 0% o fth e in s
    ta l
    led base is stable (the p h ase
    forc ompat i
    bi li
    t
    yef fec t
    sI Ther ati
    o plotc ros s
    est he45oh ea t50% s harewi thas l
    opel esst han1 )
    .
    ofthei ns taH edbas eofpr odu ct1to Ove rawi der a nge,r andom s hoc ksa ff
    ectngma
    i rkets ha rea re
    thet otaHns taHedbas e,R,i s se l
    f-cor r
    ecti
    ng:t Ot hee xtentas hoc kmovest hes ys t
    e ma wa y
    R-Bl/ (Bl +B2). from5 0 %, ma rket sh are adju sts to compe nsate ,gra dua l
    ly retu m-
    ngt
    i hei nst
    alledba s etoar atioof1: 1.Notetha ttherea r
    et woa d-
    Expr es singBlaSB2R/ (1-R)and
    ditiona lequilibr
    ia:a nuns tabl epoi ntWhe nt hes ha reofi ns tll
    a ed
    subs tit
    u ti
    ngi n t
    ot heequ ationfor
    ba sei sa bout90% a ndas tablepol ntWhe nt hes hareofi n-
    att
    rac ti
    venes syi e! dsma .rketshare
    stalledba s
    ei sl O0%.Todomi natet hema rke twhe nt het otal
    forpr oductlasaf unc ti
    onof
    produc tl '
    ss hareo Hhet ot a一 n
    i stall
    e d base issma ll,firm 1woul dha vetoha vea tl east90%of
    i
    ns tall
    edbas e: thei nstauedba se.
    Ast het otali ns tal
    le dba s eris es,thepos itivene twor ke fe ct
    MS1-eXP【 S(R/ (
    1-R) )B2】
    / loopgr owss tronge r .Thes lo peoft hepha sepl ota tt
    he50%poi nt
    (expl s(R/(1-R) )B2]+e xplsB2]).
    is
    r es,a ndtheuns ta blee qui libr
    ium pol ntat90% s haremove st o
    Thef ourcur vesi nt hef i
    gur e t
    hel ef
    t .h e
    W nt hec ompet l
    tO r'sins tll
    a edba sei sha lft
    het hre shol d
    assumeB2 -0. 1, 0. 5,1, and2. (thec urvel abe ledB2 -0. 5) ,thes l
    ope oft hepha sepl o tatt he
    50%e quili
    br
    iuml SJ us tabo ute qua lto1 .Atthi spoi nt ,thei nitil
    a
    402 P
    art
    II eDy
    I Th nami
    cso
    fGr
    owt
    h

    5 0% e qui li
    br i
    umi sbi st
    abl e:ma rke ts ha renowa lwa ysl iesa bo vet he45ol ine. If
    thes ha reo fi nstall
    e dba s
    ef o rf i
    rm 1dr ops , ma rke tsha r
    er ises ,c ompe ns atingf o
    r
    thedi sturba nc eandr eturnlngt hes ha reo fins tall
    e dba set o50%, buta ninc rea sein
    installe dba sec ause sa ne veng re aterr isei ns hare ,mo vlngt hes ys tema wa y丘. o m
    the50%e q uili
    brium. Ifr ando ms hoc ksi ni tiall
    ygi ve丘r m 1as ma lla dva ntagei n
    installe dba se,ma rke tsha r
    ewi lltendt or iS ef urt
    he run tilfir
    m 1do mina testhemar-
    ke ta ndr each esth esta blee quilibrium a tl oo鞄o fthei ns ta
    lledba s
    e .
    Fur the rg rowthi nt hetot alins talledba s ec ontinue st oinc rea sethes tre ngtho f
    thepos iti
    vene t
    wo rke ffectl oo punt ili tdo mi na t
    e st hed yna mi c so fthes ys tem.
    Whe nt hec ompe t
    itor 'sinstalledba sei se q ua ltot het hre s
    hol d( thec urvel a
    be led
    B2 - 1 ),thes l
    opeo ft hepha sepl o ta tt he50% e qui l
    ibr iumi sg rea t
    ertha n1 ,a nd
    thee qui li
    br iuma t5 0% i suns t
    a ble.The rea renow t wos tabl ee quili
    br ia:o nea t
    loo鞄o ft hei nstalledba s
    ea ndo nea ta bout2 0%. Thepos i
    tivel oo psd o mi natet he
    sys t
    e m.Thef irmt hatga l
    nSt hel ar ges ts ha reoft hei nstalledba sewi nsa ne ven
    large rs har eo fthema rketa ndbe gi nst oc ons o l
    ida teitsd omi na nc eo fthei nd us t
    ry
    whi lethos ef i
    ndingt he ms elve swi tht hes ma llests ha re soft hei nstalledba sef all
    farthe ra ndf art
    he rbe hind.
    Asgr owt hco ntinue s,thes treng thoft hepos iti
    vene two rkl oo pr i
    se sStillmo re,
    furthe ra cc elerat
    lngt hel eade r'Sris et odo mi na nce .Byt het imet hec ompe titor'sin-
    stalledba s eha sre ache dt wic ethet h reshol d( thec urv el abeledB2 -2) ,thep hase
    ploti sq ulteS teepa ro undt he50% e quilibr ium a ndt het wos ta blee qu il
    ibr i
    aha ve
    mo ve dc lose rto0a ndl OO%･ Thepos i
    tivel oopsa renows os t
    r ongt ha tloc kint oa
    singl es tanda rdi sq ul terapida ndt hec ha nc et ha ta nyr andom s hoc kso rpol ic i
    es
    mi ghtr eve rsetheou tcomei sva nishi ngl ys ma ll
    .

    10.
    8.3 PoE
    icy萱
    mp批at
    i｡ns
    Themode lr esultsha vec l
    e a
    rimpl icationsf orf ir
    mss ee kingt ous epos itivef eed-
    backss uc ha sne tworke ffectstoga lnade cisivema rke ts harea dvantagea nde lim-
    inatethe i
    rc ompe ti
    tors.Whe nane wpr oduc tisf i
    rstint roduc edt oama rke twhe re
    nopr iorS tanda rdsha vebe ene stablis
    he d,t hene two r
    ke fe ctislikelyt obeq ui
    te
    we ak.Ma rkets harewi llbed eterminedpr ima rilybyot he rproduc tattr
    ibut ess uch
    asq uali
    ty,p ri
    ce ,feat
    ur es,ands oon. Du ingt
    r hispe riod, al ateentrantmi g ht,byo f
    -
    feri
    ngas upe ri
    o rprod uct,aggressi
    vepr l
    Clng, J
    O lntVe ntur esWi hpr
    t ovide rso fco m-
    pleme ntarya ssets,ando therme ans,ove rco met hef irstmo ve r'sa dva ntagei n
    instal
    ledba sea ndt a
    kel e a
    de rs
    hipoft hei nd ustry.Thewi ndowo fo ppor t
    uni tyfor
    sucha ct
    ioni sl imi t
    ed,howe ve r
    .Ast hema rke tg rows ,ne tworke ffect sa ndt he
    availabili
    tyo fc ompl eme ntarypr oduc t
    s( e.蛋.,C ompa t iblepr erecordedt ape sfor
    VCRs ,Compa tiblesoftwa reforco mput ers)g r
    owi ni mpo rtance.Af irmt ha te st
    abl
    lis
    he sal eadi ni nsta
    lledba s
    e ,i
    nt hea vaila bil
    ityofc ompl ement ar
    ya sse ts,andi n
    thepe rceptlOnt hatitisthema rketleade ri slike lytoga lれa ne dg einma rke tshare
    thatleadst ofu rhe
    t rga i
    nsi nas el
    f-fulfil
    lingpr ophe cy. Ast heinstall
    edba seg r
    ows
    andt hene two rke f
    fec t
    sbe comee vens tronge r,thec ha nc et hatal at
    ee ntrantc an
    overco met hea dvantageoft hef i
    rstmo verde clinesr api dly,bothb ecaus et het ot
    al
    inst
    a l
    ledba sei sg rowing( r
    equiringt heups t
    ar ttos ellmo reu nits
    )a ndbe cause
    compa tibilit
    ybe come samo rea ndmo rei mpo rt a
    ntde t e-i nanto fcust ome rpur-
    chasede cisions( givingt hec u汀entl eadermo reofa ne dge )
    .
    Ch
    apt
    er10 Pa
    thDe
    pen
    den
    cea
    ndPo
    si
    ti
    veF
    eed
    bac
    k 403

    The sedyna mi csdes cribewha thappe ne dintheVCRi ndus trya ndhe lpe xpl a
    in
    whySony, asthef irstmove r
    , wa sunablet oc onvertitsea rl
    yl ea di ntoma rketdo m-
    inanc edes pit
    ethel rgenumbe
    a rofpos itivef eedbacksc onfe rri
    ngC umul ati
    vea d-
    vanta get ot heleade r. Whe nVHSwa si ntroduc ed,thei ns t
    a l
    ledba s eofVCRswa s
    sosma lltha tcompa tibilit
    ywa snotye tani ssuefわrmos tc ustome rs.Ot hera tt
    ributes
    ofpr oduc tatt
    racti
    ve ne ssdom i na tedint hepur chasede cis i
    on･ Whe reasSony , hop-
    1ngt Omonopol izet hef or ma tthe ybe l
    ie ve dwoul dbe comet hei ndus tr
    ys ta
    nda r
    d,
    keptt ightc ontroloft het e chnol ogy,thusr estri
    ctl
    ngI tsava ilabilitya ndke e plngt he
    prlCer elativelyhigh,Ma tsus hitade ci
    de dt olicenseVHSwi de lya ndc he a ply･ The
    VHSc ons orti
    um, thought hel aterentrantt ot hema rket,wa sabl etoga int hel arge s
    t
    shareoft hema r
    ke tj usta tthepol ntWhe r et ota
    ls al
    esgr owt he xplode da ndr apidly
    overc amet heinitiali nstalledba s
    ea dvant a geo fBe t
    ama x. VHSbe camet hel eader
    aroundt het imef i
    lms t
    udi osbe ga ntois suef i
    lmsf ort
    hehomevi de oma rke LOnc e
    thef ilms t
    udiosde c i
    de dt opr oduc et ape sforthehomema rke t,compa tibili
    ty
    becamet hedomi na nta tt
    r i
    but eofa t
    tractive nessint hepur cha sede cisionofmos t
    custome rs,a ndf i
    lms tudiosc hos etoi s suet apesi nthemos tpr eva l
    e ntf o ma
    r t
    .
    Ma tsus hita'sstr
    a t
    e gyga vet hemt hele adi nsha r
    eofVHSt ape sJ usta tt het i
    me
    compa tibili
    tybe camec it
    r ic a
    l. Tho ughSonyt r
    iedtof ightba c kbyl owe rlngPr lCeS
    ande nc our agingPr oduc t
    ionofBe ta
    ma xf o rmattapes,thewi ndowofoppo rtunity
    hads hut .Theg r
    owt hoft hei nstalledba seha ds t
    rengthene dt hene twor ke fe c tsso
    muc ht ha tVHS' sl ea dc oul dnotbeove rc ome. Thef ateofBe tama xwa ss e aled.

    Po!
    EcyAnaS
    ys;
    l
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    Usethemode ldevelopedinsec
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