昏i

S憲章 発撃等墨 等 ぎ発桑野鹿 奪

Sys骨em等 耳的重訂痛 貞門gand
Moe
Be巨
岳悶g骨
0㌢讃 監￠獅 野営e
xW即匡
d

JohnD.
Ster
man
Mas
sachus
ett
sInst
itut
eofTechnol
ogy
SloanSchoolofMa nageme
nt

幽腰 甘言
閲脱水 告
婁
Bos
ton Bur
rRi
dge,l
L Dubuque,lA Madison,
WINewYor k SanFr
anci
sco St
.Loui
s
Bangkok Bogot
a Caracas Lisbon London Madri
d
Mexi
coCi
ty Mil
an NewDel hiSeoulSingapore Sydney Tai
peiTor
onto
Mc
Gra
w-Hi
llHi
ghe
rEd
ucat
ion
ADL
mSL
OnO
fTh
eMc
Gra
w-Hi
llCo
mpa
mes

BUSINESSDYNAMICS
SYs
TEMSTHI
NKI
NGANDMoDE
LINGF
ORACoMP
LEXWoRLD

Copyri
ght㊨2000byTheMc Gr
aw-Hil
lCompani
esJnc.
Allright
sreserve
d. Pri
ntedintheUnit
ed
St
atesofAme r
ica･
Exc e
ptasper
mitt
edundert
heUnit
edSta
tesCopyrightActof1 976,nopar
tof
t
hispubli
ca t
ionma yberepr
oduce
dordist
ri
but
edinanyf
ormorbya nyme ans,orstor
edina
dat
abaseol-ret
ri
evalsys
tem,w
ithoutt
hepri
orWri
tt
enp
ermissi
onoft hepublisher
.

Thi
sbooki
spnnt
edona
cid-
fre
epa
er
p .
1
0QWV/
QWVO987
I 1
SBN-3:
978-
0-07-
2311
35-
8
I
SBN-
10:
0-07-
231
135-
5
Publ
is
her
:Je
jf
reyJ.She
lst
ad

Se
niors
pons
orl
nge
dit
or:
Scot
tIs
enbe
rg

Ma
rke
tingma
nage
r:Zi
naCr
qft

Senio
rpr ojectma na ge r
:Gl adysTr ue
Seni
orpr oduc t
ions upe rvisor
: LoriKoe t
ter
s
Free
lancede signc oor dinator
: Ma7TL I
.Christi
anson
Free
lancec overde signe r:TheVl-s
ual
Coverima ge'
.㊨Soni aDe launay/i&M Ser vi
ces,Amst
erdamuat
eGal
ler
y,London
/Ar
tRe
sol
uCe
,NY
Compos it
or:GAC/ Indi anapolis
Typeface:ll/13Tl'me sRoman
Pri
nter:Quebec orPr inti
ngBoo kGr oupWer s
aill
es

Li
brar
yofCongr
essCat
log
a ing-
in･
Publ
ieat
ionDat
a
St
erma n,John.
Businessdynamics:s yste
mst hi
nkingandmode l
ingf
b∫acompl
exworld/J
ohnD.Ste
rma
n.
p･cm･
I ncl
udesbibli
ographicalrefe
rencesandindex･
I SBN0- 07-2311
35- 5( l
礼k.paper
)
ilIndustr
ialmana geme nt･ 2･Systemtheory. 3.Mana
gementi
nfo
rmati
onsys
tems.I.
Title.

HD30.2.S7835 2000
658.
4′038′011
-dc 21
99-
056030

ht
tp:
〟www.
mhhe.
com
 ● ●
i_
L
ea-
,
a
.f
i呈
il
i
g妄言1
A読取da b和書
ex S
C⑲m 野畳 ys
息em s

Ex
per
ienc
eisa
nex
pen
siv
esc
hool
.
-Be
nja
minFr
ank
li
n

Ex
per
ienc
eiss
ome
thi
ngyo
uge
tju
sta
fte
ryoune
edi
t.
-An
oll
ymO
uS

1.
1 l
NTRODUCT1
0N
Theg r
ea t
estc o
ns tanto fmod ernt i
mesi scha nge. Ac celerat
lngC hange si ntech-
nology,popul ati
o n,a nde conomi cacti
vlt
ya r
et ranS f
o r
ml ngO urwo rl
d,f romt he
prosaic
-t hee f
fectofi nf or
ma t
iontechnologyo nthewa yweus ethete lepho ne-
tothepr ofound-t hee fe c
tofgr ee
nhousega seso ntheg l
obalc l
ima t
e.So meo fthe
changesa rewo nd erful; ot
hersde f
il
ethepl anet,impove r
ishthehuma ns pl r
lt,and
threat
eno urs uⅣi val.Al lchall
engetradit
ionali nst
itutions,practi
ces,a ndbe l
iefs
.
Mos timpor t
ant,mos to fthec hangeswenow s trugglet oc ompr e
he nda riseas
conseque nces,il
ltende da nduni nte
nded,o fhuma nltyl t
Se l
f.Alltooof t
e n,we l1
-
int
entionede fortstos olvepressl
ngPr o
blemsl e adt opolicyre s
ist
anc ,whe
e reour
polici
esa rede layed,di l
uted,o rdefea
tedbyt heunf o r
eseenr eacti
onso fo t
her
peopleo rofna t
ur e.Ma nytlmeSOu rbestefo rt
st os olveapr oblema ctuallyma ke
itwo r
se.
Thed i
zzylnge f f
e ctsofa ccele
rati
ngC hangea reno tne w.He nryAda ms ,a
perceptl
VeO bservero ftheg reatchangeswr o ughtbyt hei ndustri
alr evo luti
on,
3
4 Pa
rtI Pe
rsp
ect
i
vea
ndP
roc
ess

formulate
dt heLaw ofAccele
rat
iontodes
cri
betheexponent
ialgrowthoftech -

nology,product
ion,andpopul
ati
onthatmadethel
egacyofcoloni
a lAmer
icahe
inheri
tedir
rele
vant:
Si
nce1
800,
Sco
reso
fne
wfo
rce
sha
dbe
endi
scov
ere
d;ol
dfo
rce
sha
dbe
enr
ais
ed
t
ohi
gherpowe rs日.･Co mplexi
tyha dext
e ndedit
sel
fonimmenseho ri
zons,
a
ndari
thmetica
l r
atl
OSWe reuse
lessforanya t
temptata
ccur
acy.
Ifscien
cewe retogoo ndoublingorq uadr
upli
ngIt
sCOmple
xi t
iesevery
l
Oyears,eve
nma t
hematic
sshoulds oonsuccumb.Anavera
gemi ndha dsuc-
c
umbedalreadyin1850',
itcoul
dnol o
ngerund er
sta
ndt
hep r
obl
emi n1 900.
(
Adams1 918,pp.490,496)
Ada msbe l
ie vedt her adicalc ha ngesi ns ocietyi nduce dbyt hesef or cesH woul d
requl reane ws oc ialmi nd."Wi thunc ha rac t
eristic,a ndpe rhapsi roni c,opt lmi sm ,

heconc l
ude d,H Thusf ar,since50 r1 0t hous andye ars ,themi ndha ds ucc ess fully
reac ted,a ndnot hi ngyetpr ovedt ha ti twoul df a i
lt or ea ct- buti twoul dneed
toJ ump. "
As teadys trea m ofphi losophe rs ,sc ientists,andma na geme ntgur usha ves inc e
echoedAda ms ,la me ntlngt hea ccel erationa ndca llingf ors imi l
arl ea pst of unda-
me nt l ne
a wwa ysoft hinkinga nda cting. Ma nya dvoca tethede velopme ntofs ys-
temst hink ing -t heabi li
tyt os eet hewor ldasac ompl exs ys te
m,i nwhi chwe
unde rst
andt hatH youca n'tjus tdoonet hingHa ndt ha t" eve rythingl SC Onne Ctedt o
eve rythinge lse."I fpeopl eha dahol lsticwor ldvi ew,i ti sa r
gue d,the ywoul dt he n
acti nc ons ona nc ewi ththel ong- t
erm bes ti nterestsoft hes ys t
e ma sawhol e,i de n-
tifyt hehi ghl eve ra gepol nt Sins ys tems ,a nda voi dpol icyr esistance･I ndee d,f or
some, thede velopme ntofs ys temst hinki ngi sc ruc ialf ort hes urviva lofhuma nl t
y･1
Thec hallengef acingusa lli show t omovef r om ge nera l
izati
onsa bouta cc el-
eratlngl e arnlnga nds ys temst hinki ngt ot oolsa ndpr oces s
est ha the lpusunde r-
standc ompl exity,de s
ignbet terope ratingpol ic i
es ,a ndgui decha ngei ns ys t
e ms
from t hes ma ll
e stbus i
nes stot hepl a ne tasawhol e. Howe ve r,leam1 nga boutc om-
plexs ystemswhe nyoua lsol i
vei nt he mi sdiffic ult･Wea r
ea l
lpas se nger sona n
aircra f
twemus tnotonl yflybutr edes igni nflight .
System dyna mi csisamet hodt oe nha nc elea rnlngl nC Ompl exs ys tems .Jus tas
ana irl
ineus esfli ghts imul a t
or stohe lppi lotslea rn ,sys te m dyna mi csi s,pa rtly,a
me thodf ordeve lopl ngma nage me ntfli ghts imul a tor s,of tenc omput e rs i
mul ation
model s,tohe lpusl ea rna boutdyna mi cc ompl exity, unde rstandt hes our cesofpo ト

1
Cyr esistanc e,a ndde si
gnmor ee fe c t
ivepol icies.
Butl ea rnlnga boutcompl exdyna mi cs ys temsr equl reSmor et ha nt ec hni cal
toolst oc rea tema t
he ma ticalmodel s.Sys tem dyna mi csi sf unda me nt a ll
yi nte rdis-
ciplinary. Be caus ewea reconc ernedwi tht hebe havi orofc ompl exs ys te ms,s ys tem

1Therear
ema nyschoo
lsofsys
temsthi
nki
n g(f
o rsur
veys,s
eeRichar
dson1991andLane
19
94 )
.Somee mphas
izequal
it
ati
veme t
hods;
o t
hersstr
essfo-a l
mo de
li
ng･Assourcesofme t
hod
a
ndme taphort
heydrawonfiel
dsasdiv
erseasant
h rop
ology,bi
ol
ogy,en
glnee
rlng,
li
ng ui
st
ics,ps
y-
c
hology,physi
cs,
andTaois
ma ndseekappl
ic
atio
n sinfi
eldsst
il
lmoredi
verse
･Allagr
e e
,howe ve
r,
t
hatasyste
msv i
ewo ft
hewo r
ldisst
il
lrar
e･JayForres
terdevel
opedsy
ste
md ynamicsinthe1950s
a
tMI T.Richar
dson(
1 9
91)仕acest
heh i
st
oryofthefiel
da n
dr e
lat
essys
temdynamicstoothersys
-
t
emsa p
p r
oaches.
Ch
apt
er1 Le
arn
ingl
nan
dab
out
Comp
lexS
yst
ems 5

dyna micsi sgro und e

di nt het heor yofnon l
inea rdyna mi csa ndf e edbac kcontrol
de ve l
opedi nma t
he matics,phys ics, ande ng l
ne erl
ng. Be causewea pplyt hesetools
tot hebe ha viorofhuma na swe lla sphys icala ndt e chnica ls ystems ,system
dyna micsd rawso nc ognlti
vea nds oc ialps yc holog y,econo mi cs,a ndo thersocial
scie nces.Be causewebui lds ystemdy nami csmode lstos olveimpo rtantre al
wo rld
pro blems ,wemus tlearnho wt owor ke fec t
ivelywi t
hg roupsofbus ypol icy
ma kersandhowt oc atal
yz es ustai
ne dcha ngei no rganizations･
Thischa pterdi s
cussest hes 女illsr equire dtode ve lo
pyo urs ystemst hink i
ngc a-
pa bili
ties
, ho wtoc reateane fec t
ivel ea
r ningPr oc essindy na mi callyc ompl e
xs ys
-

tems ,andhow t ous es ystemd yna mi csi no rganiz a

tionst oa dd ressi mportant
pro blems .If i
rstreviewwha twekno wa bo utho wpe oplel erni
a na nda bo utcom-
ple xdyna mi csys t
ems .Suc hl earnlngi sdi fficulta ndr arebe caus eava ri
etyof
struc t
uralimpe d i
me nt
sthwa rtthef e edba ckpr ocessesre quiredf orl ear
n lngtOOC I
cur .Suc c
e ssfula pproache st olear nlnga bo utc ompl exdy nami cs ys t
emsr equlre
(1)t oolstoe lic
ita ndrepre senttheme nta lmo de lsweho lda bo utthena tur eofdif-
fi
c ultprobl ems; (
2)f orma lmode l
sa nds imul a
tionme ho
t dst ote s
ta ndi mp roveo ur
me ntalmode ls
,d esignne wpo licies ,andpr ac t
icene ws kill
s;a nd( 3)me t
hodst o
sha rpensc ienti
ficreason l
ngS kil
ls,impr oveg rouppr o cesses,ando ve r
comede fen-
siver outi
ne sf orindividualsa ndt ea ms ｡

1.
1L下 Po!i
cyResist
ance,theLawoHJnin始t
lded
eonsequemees,ame
m的eeoumをeF百
mをu盲
抽e
Behav岳
oro菅Soeia日Syst
ems
Anditwil
lfal
loutasinac o
mpl i
cati
onofdis
eas
es,thatbyappl
yinga
reme
dytoonesor
e,youwil
lprovokeanot
her
;andthatwhic
hremovest
he
onei
lls
ymptomproduce
sothers‥.
-SirTho
ma sMor
e

Thebe
st-
lai
dsc
heme
so'mi
cean'
men
/Ganga
fta-
gle
y.
-Ro
ber
tBur
ns

An
ythi
ngt
hatc
angowr
on l
gwilgowr
ong.
一日
Mur
phyM

t
Vehav
eme
tthee
nemyan
dhei
sus
｡
-Pogo
FromThoma sMo rei
n1 516t oPo goi nthemi d20thcenturyithaslongbe enac -

knowl e
dgedthatpe opl
eseek i
ngt os olveaproblemof t
enma keitwo rs
e･Ou rpoli
-
ci
e smayc r
eateuna nt
icI
Pat
e dsidee fe ct
s･Ouratt
emptstos t
abil
izethesyst
emma y
destabi
li
zeit
.Ourd ec
isi
onsma yprov okereact
ionsbyo t
hersseekingtorest
orethe
balanceweups e
t .Forres
ter(1 971a)c all
ssuchphe nomenat he… c
ounteri
ntuit
ive
behaviorofsoci
als yst
ems .
HThe seu nexpect
edd ynamicsoftenleadtopolicyre-
si
stance,t
hetende ncyforinterventionstobede laye
d,dilut
ed,orde feat
edbyt he
res
po nseoft
hesys temtothei nterventionit
sel
f(Me adows1 982)･
6 P
art
IPe
rs
pec
ti
vea
ndP
roc
ess

FLGUREl･l
Pdicyress
i an
t ce:
Roma ni
anbir
th

(
aJ
at
r es

do
a
al
d oooLJJt2^
Thecr udebir
th
rat
einRomani a t
2
t]LJ
l
showlngt heef
fec
t
J!
g an

ofres
tr i
cti
ngabor
-
￠

ti
onbegl nnl
ngln
JSLuJ叩g)
PJ
I

1966
U

19661967196819691970197119711994
1994
1966
1971
D
ght(1971)
ri
andW
avld
;1971
S
R
-
ource:
earb
anSl ook1995
calY
I'
st
/'
at
omani
,,
100
1971
1994
101
areannual
pp averages
N
-
e:
ot
.
l

Asa ne xampl e,cons ide rthebi rt

hr ateinRoma niai nthel ate1 960S ｡Thec rude
birthr ate( bir t
hspe ryea rpe r1 000pe ople )wa se xtreme lyl ow-a bout1 5pe r
thous and( Figur e1 -
1 ).Forva riousr ea sons,inc l
ud i
ngna tiona lpr idea nde thnic
ide ntity,t hel owbi rthr atewa sc onsi de redtobeagr avepr obl em byt hegove rn-
me nt, i
nc ludi ngt hedi c t
atorNi col auCe ausesgu.TheCe a
us esgur egimer esponde d
byi mpos l ngpol ic i
esdes igne dt os t
imul atethebi rt
hr a t
e.Ⅰ mpor tationofc onta r -

ce ptivede vi ce swa so utlawe d; pr opaga ndac ampa l

gnSe xtoll
ingt hevi rtuesofl arge
fami lie
sa ndt hepa t
riotic( ma trioticwoul dbemor ea ccura t
e )dut yt oha vemor e
chi ldrenwe rei ntroduc ed,a longwi ths omemode sttaxi ncent ivesf わrl arge rf ami-
lies .Pe rha psmos timpor tant,a bortion-f re el
ya va i
lableonde ma nds inc e1 957
throught hes tatehea lthc ares ys t
em-wa sba nnedi nOc tobe r1 966( Da vida nd
Wr ight1 971 ).
Ther es ultwa simme diatea nddr a ma t
ic.Thebi rthr ater os es harplyt one a r
ly
40pe r1 000pe ryea r,rivalingt hos eoft hef ast
estgrowl ngna tions ･Thepol i
c ya p-
pe are dtobeas ens at
iona ls ucc es s.Howe ver,wi t
hinmont hst hebi r t
hr atebe gant o
fall.Byt hee ndof1 970,onl y4yea rsa ft
erthepol icywa simpl e me nted,thebi r
th
rateha ddr oppe dbe low20pe rt hous a nd,c losetot helowl e ve lss e
e npr iort Ot he
inte rventi on. Thought hepol i
cyc ontinue dinf orce,thebi rt
hr atec ontinue dt of all,
rea ching1 6pe rt hous andby1 989 -a boutt hes a
mel owr a
tet ha tl edtot hei mpo -

sitionoft hepol icy. Wha tha ppe ne d?

Thes ys temr esponde dt ot hei nterve ntioni nwa yst her e glmedi dnota ntici
-
pa te. Thepe opleofRoma niaf oundwa ysa roundt hepol icy. The ypr acticeda lter -

na ti
veme thodsofbi rthc ont rol. The ys muggl edc ontrac e
ptlVepi llsa ndde vic esin
from ot he rc ount ries.De spe ratewome ns oughta ndf oundba c k-alleya bor tions .
Ma nyoft he sewe reuns ani t
a r
yorbot c he d,leadingt oane artripl i
ngofde athsdue
Ch
apt
er1 Le
arn
lngl
nan
dab
out
Comp
lexS
yst
ems 7

toc ompl ica tionsofa bor ti

onf rom 1 965t o1 967.Mos tho rr i
bl y,t henumbe rof
ne ona talde a thsr os ebymor et ha n300%be twe e n1 966a nd1 967,a20%i nc rea se
int hei nf a ntmo rtal ityr a te( Da vida ndWr ight1 971 )･Ther es ult :thepol icywa s
re nde r edc ompl e t
e l
yi ne ffec tivea lmos ti mme dia telya fteri mpl eme nt ation.
Butt heuna ntic IPa tedc ons e que nc esdi dn' te ndwi tht hef ailur eoft hepo pu-
la t
ionpol ic y･ Th epe opl eofRoma ni a,a mongt hepoor es ti nEu rope ,we r eha vi ng
sma llf ami liesb eca us et heyc oul dn' ta for dl ar ge rones .Chi ldc arewa suna va i1-
a blef ors ome. Ma nyot he rsl ive dwi tht he ire xte nde df a mi liesi ns ma ll ,c rowde d
apa rtme nt s ･J obswe r es c arce;i nc omewa sl ow･ Ma nype o plega vec hildr en血e y
c oul dn' ts uppor tt os tate -
unor
r pha na ges . Thegove rnme nt 'spol ic ydi dn' tpr eve nt
thepe opl eofRo ma ni af romc ont rol li
ngt he i
rownf ertil
ity, buti tdi dbr ee di nte ns e
res ent me nta ga l
nS tt hei ntrus ivepol ic iesoft her e glme. In1 989,whe nt heBe r lin
wa llf ella ndt het ot a litarianr e gimesOfEa s t
ernEur o pet o ppl e d, Roma niawa st he
onl yna tionwhe r et heve lvetr e vol utionwa svi ol ent .Theha tedCe a us ese ua ndhi s
equa llyha te dwi fewe r es umma r ilye xe cute dbyf iri
ngs qua d. The irbl oodybodi e s
we rel e氏i nt hec our tya rdof血epr e si
de ntialpa lac ewhi let hes c enewa sbr oadca st
onna tiona lt e l
ev ision.Thel awba nnl nga bor tionwa sthef irstove rturne dbyt he
ne wgove rnme nt.Thebi rthr a te,alr ea dyl ow,f ellfur the r.Byt hemi d1 990S ,t he
popul a t
iono fRo ma niawa sa c tua llyde c l
ini nga sbi rthsdr o ppe dbe lowde aths .
Thec hi ldr enofRoma nias uf fere dt hemos tf romt hepopul ationpol icy. Dur ing
theye arsoft hepo pul ationpol icyt hous andsofc hildrenwe r epl ace di nt hec areof
sta t
eor pha na ges,whe ret heywe reke ptl i
kea ni ma l
si nc ribs( c ages ,re ally)wi th-
outa t
t entiont obas icne eds ,muc hl es st hel ove山a tallofusne eda ndde serve.
Foodwa ss os c a
r cet ha tbl oodt rans fus ionswe rer outine l
ygl Ve na Snut ritiona ls up-
pl eme nts ･Be caus ene edl eswe reus edr epe atedl y,a ne pi de mi cofAI DSs pre ad
rapi dlya mongt hec hildr en･ Thes idee fe ct soft hef a i
ledpopul ationpol ic yc as ta
sha dowont heh ea ltha ndha ppi nes sOfa ne ntirena tion,as ha dows tr et
c hi ngove r
ge ne ra t
ions .
Pol ic yr e sistanc ei snotl imi te dt odi ctator s.Itdoe sn' tres pe ctna tiona lbor de rs,
pol iticali de ol og y,o rhi storica le poc h･ Co ns ide rt heUSgove rnme nt 'sf i
ghta ga lnS t
infla tioni nt hee arly1 970S . Fi gur el 12s howst heCons ume rPr ic eI nde x( CPI )f or
theUni te dSt a t
esbe twe e n1 968a nd1 976. Int hee ar
ly1 970si nf
la tionha da ccele r-
ate da ndt heNi xona dmi nistra tionf elta ctionha dt obet a ke n. Thoug haRe publ i-
ca n, Ni xonc hos et oi mpl e me ntwa gea ndpr lCeC Ont r
OI s.Thepol icywa se x pens ive:
Ane wf ede ra lbu rea uc ra cy,t heCounc ilonWa gea ndPr ic eSt abi lity ,wa sc rea ted
toove rse et hec ont rol sa nde nf or c ec ompl ianc e.Wa gea ndpr lCec ont rol swer e
ie
v we dbyma nyi nNi xon' sownpa rya
t sve rgi ngOns oc ia lism,c os tlngNi xon
va lua blepol iticalca pi tal.Atf irst, thepol ic ys ee me dtowo rk, althoughi mpe rfec tly.
Dur ings o-c a lledPha seIoft hec ont rol s, t
her ateofi nfla tionf ellbya boutha lf.The
admi ni strati onde ci de dt hec ont rolsc oul dber e laxe d. I
nPha s eI I, Pr e si
de ntFor d
(whoi nhe rite dt hepr ogr amf r om Ni xon)l aunc he daj awboni ngc ampa ign,com-
ple tewi thc ampa lgn- Styl ebut tonsl abe ledH WI N! りf orH Whi pI nfla t
ionNow! =･
Fe wobs erve rse xpe cte dWI N. fbut tonst oha vea nye ffec t,a ndmos tf elti nfla ion
t
wo ldr
u e tur nt oitsr a tepnort ot hes ta rtofc ont rol s.Ins tea d, inna tiona c tua ll
ya c-
ce l
e ratedunt il,by1 975, theCPIha dr e tur
ne dtot het rajec toryl tWa sOnPr iort Ot he
impos i
tionoft hepr ic eC Ont rOI s. Les st ha n4yea rsa ftert hei nt erve nt iont he rewas
8 Pa
rtI Pe
rsp
ect
ivea
ndPr
oce
ss

FI
GUREi-
2 Pol
i
cyr
esi
st
ancei
nthef
igh
tagal
nsti
nfl
ati
on
TheUSConsumerPr
icel
ndex(
CPI
)showi
ngt
heNi
xon
/For
dwageandpr
ice
cont
rol
s

(
ooL = e9
5
0
6
L

4
0
d
)
d3

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

nor esidueofbe 臥 Ot
ne here xamplesofpol
icyresi
stanc
eca nbefoundnearl
y
everyda yinthenewspaper
･Ta bleilll
ist
safew1
2
Ma chi
avell
i,akeenobserverofhumansys
tems,disc
ussedpol
icyres
ist
anc
ea t
length,Obser
vingintheDiscoursest
hat
Whe napr oble
ma ri
seseihe
t rfr omwi thi
nar epubl
icorouts
ideit
, Onebrought
aboute i
the
rbyi nt
e r
nalo rexter nalre
asons,Onethathasbecomes ogrea
tthati
t
beginstoma keeveryonea fraid, t
hesafestpoli
cylStOdela
yd ea
lingwithitrat
her
thantryi
ngtodoa waywi thit, becausethosewhotrytodoa waywi thi
talmost
alwaysincreas
ei t
sstrengtha nda c
celer
atetheharmwhi c
htheyfe ar
edmi gh
tcome
fromit.(Machiavell
i1979, pp. 240-241).
Ifi
ndMa chiavell
i'sviewtoocynicalbutc
ans ympat
hizewithhisf
rus
tra
tioninob-
ser
vinghisclientprinces(t
heCEOsofRe nais
sanc
eItal
y)t a
keacti
onsthatonly
madetheirproblemswor se･Amor erele
f ct
iveviewisoferedbythelat
ebiologl
St
andessa
yistLe wisThomas( 1974,p.90):
Whe nyo ua reco nf
r ont
e dbya n
yc o
mpl e
xs ocialsyste
m, sucha sanu rbancent
eror
aha mster,wiht
t hingsa boutitt
ha tyou'r
ed is
satisfi
edwiha
t nda nxio
ust of
ix,you
cannotjuststepl na ndsetaboutfixingwithmuc hhopeo fhelpi
ng. Thisrea
liza
tion
isoneo fthes oredi s
courageme nt
so fourcenturyI-Yo uc annotme ddlewithone
partofac ompl exs yste
mf r
omt heo ut
sidewithou tt
hea l
mos tcertai
nri s
kofsett
ing
offdisa
strouse ventsthatyo uhadn'tcountedo nino he
t r,remo t
epa rt
s. I
fyouwa nt
tofixsome thingyoua refir
stobli
g edtounderstand... hewhol
t es yst
e mH
Inter
venlngl SaWa yOfc ausl
ngt r
o ubl
e.

2Fu
rth
erre
adi
ng:JohnMcPh ee(1
989)o恥rsawo n
de血l des
cri
pt
ionofpoli
cyresi
st
ancei
nthe
r
ela
ti
onshi
pofpeo
plewithnat
u r
e.McPheebil
rli
ant
lydesc
ri
besth
eunanti
cI
Pate
dsideeff
ect
sand
p
oli
cyresi
st
anc
eari
sin
gf r
oma tt
emptst
od e
fea
tth
reeel
ementa
lfor
cesofnat
ure:v
o l
can
ism,f
loo
d ,
a
ndfir
e･Edwar
dTenner(19
96)a l
soi
d e
nif
t i
esmanyexampl
esofpol
icyre
sis
tan
ce･
 Cha
pte
r1 Le
armngl
nan
daboutCompl
exSys
tems 9

TABLE l l
l
"Us eofChe aperDr ugsPushesCos tsUp,NotDown,St udyFi nds:Li miting
Examplesofpol
l
cy whati spr es cr ibed,asmanaged- car es ys temsdo,hasuni nt endedef f
ec tof
r
esist
ance
increasi ngc os ts,r esul tsshow"( Headl inej nLA Tl mes,3/
' 20/ 96,pl1,r eport-
1ngUni v,ofUt ahs tudyof1 3, 000pat i
ent si nvar i
ousHMOs) .
"Washi ngt on' sbi gges tconser vat i
onpr ogr am,whi chpay sf ar mer st ot ak e
soj lou tofcul ti
vat ionf oradecadet ocombater osionandhel pt heenvi r
on
-

men t,isawas teofmoney, sos aysanews tudyoft he l

l lyear -Old
progr am ..･Forever yer odi ngacr eaf ar meri dles,anot herf ar mer -or
somet i
mest hes ameone-si mpJ ypl owsupnear 一
yasmuchaddi tional
erosi on- pr one一 and..lE nt heGr eatPl ains, forins tance, far mer ssetasi de
1 7mi "ionac res, yett het ot a一 cul tivatedl anddr oppedbyonl y2m‖i onacr es"
(Busi nessWeek,3 /18/96,p.6,r epor t
ingaUni v.ofMi nnesot as tudy) .
Lowt arandni cot inecl gar ettesac tuaH yI ncr easei ntak eofcar ci nogens,CO,
etc.assmok er scompensat ef ort hel owni cotinecont en tbysmoki ngmor e
clgar etteSPerday,byt aki ngl onger ,mor ef requentdr ags, andbyhol dingt he
smok ei nt hei rl ungsl onger .
Ant il
ockbr ak esandot heraut omot i
vesaf etydevi cescausesomepeopl et o
drivemor ea ggr ess iveJy ,Of fset ti
ngsomeoft heirbenef i
ts,
informat iont echnol ogyhasnotenabl edt he" paper l
es sOf fice"-papercon -

sumpt ionperc api taisup.

Roadbui l
din gpr ogr amsdesi gnedt or educeconges tionhavei ncr easedt raf
-

fi
c,del ays,andpol l
ution.
Despi tewi de spr eadus eof一 abor -savl ngaPPl lanCeS, Amer icanshave一 ess
leisuret odayt han50year sago.
TheUSgover nmen t
'swarondr ugs,f ocusl ngOni nt erdjc tionandsuppl ydis-
rupt i
on( par ticul ar l
ycocai nepr oduct i
oni nSout hAmer i
ca) ,wi thacos tinthe
bHi ons,hashadonl yasmal limpactoncocai necul tivat i
on,Pr oduc tion,or
smuggl lng.Dr ugusei nAmer icaandel sewher er emai nshi ghr
TheUSpol fCyOff i
resuppr essi onhasi ncr easedt hesi zeandsever i
tyof
fores tfires.Rat hert hanf requent ,sma"f ires, fir
esuppr es si onr eadst othe
ac cumul at i
onofdeadwoodandot herf uel sl eadi ngt ol ar ger ,hot ter ,and
mor edanger ousf i
res,of tenconsum ngt heol des tandl ar ges ttr eeswhi ch
previousl ysur vi vedsmal l
erf iresunhar med.
Floodc ont rdef fortssuchasl eveeanddam cons t ruc ti
onhavel edt omor e
sever ef loodsb ypr event i
ngt henat urar dissi pationofexcesswat eri nf l
ood
plains. Thec os toff l
ooddamagehasi ncr easedast hef loodpl ai nswer ede-
velopedbyp eopl ewhobel ievedt heywer esaf e.
lmposl ng200- mi let errit
or ia川mi tsandquot ast opr ot ec tf i
shs t
ock sdi d
notpr eventt heco‖ apseoft heGeor gesBankf i
sher yo什t hecoas tofNor t
h
Amer ica1On c et hewor l
d'sr iches t,byt hemi d1990sman yspeci eswer e
commer ciallyex ti
nc t,thef i
sher ywasshutdown, thef leet swer ei dl ed,
andt he- Oc al ec onomi eswer ei ndepr essi on.
Der egul ati
onoft heUSSavi ngsandLoani ndus tr
y ,desi gnedt osavet he
indus tryf r
on lf inanc i
al pr obl ems,J edt oawaveofspecuf at i
onf o" owedby
coH apse,atac os ttot axpayer si nt hehundr edsofbj J
lionsofdoH ar s.
An ti
biot icsha ves timuJ atedt heevol uti
onofdr ug- resi stantpat hogens,
i
ncl udi ngvi rulents trainsofTB,s trep,s taph,andsexua" yt ransmi tted
diseases.
Pest
ici
desandherbici
deshavesti
mulat
edtheevol
uti
onofresi
stantpest
s
andweeds,ki
Hedoffnatur
alpr
edator
s,andaccumul
atedupthef oodchai
n
t
opoJSOnfi
sh,bi
rds,andpossi
blyhumans.
10 P
art
I P
ers
pec
ti
vea
ndP
roc
ess

Buthowcanonec ometounder
sta
ndthewhol
esyst
em?Ho
wdoe spol
icyre
sis
-
t
anceais
r e
?Howc anwelear
ntoa vo
idi
t,t
ofi
ndthehi
ghl
eve
ragepol
ici
estha
t
ca
nproduces
ust
ainabl
ebenef
it?

iI
1.2 CausesofPoi
i
tCyRest
-
Stance
Onec aus eo fpol i
c yr e sistanc ei so urte nd enc yt oint erpre tex perienc ea sas er i
e so f
eve nts,fo re xa mpl e ," inve nt oryl St oohi gh,"o r"s alesf ellt hismont h."Ac c ount s
ofwhod i
dwha tt owhoma rethemos tc o mmo nmod eofd isc our s
e ,fr omt hema i l -

roomt ot heboa rdr oo m,f romhe a dline st ohi storyboo ks .Wea ret a ughtf ro ma n
earlya get ha te ve r
ye ve ntha sac a use ,whi chi nt umi sa ne f
f ecto fs omes tille r-
a
lie
rc ause:" Inve nto ryl St oohi g hbe ca uses alesu ne xpe cted l
yf el
l .Sa lesf e l
lbe -

causet hec ompe titor sl owe re dt he irpr lCe.Thec ompe titorsl owe redt he irpr ic e
bec ause. ･･"Suc he ve nt-le ve le xpl anatio nsc anbee xtend edi nde finite l
y,ina nu n-
broke nAr is totelianc ha ino fc a us esa nde fe cts, untilwea rivea
r tsomeFi rstCa us e,
ormo rel i
ke l
y ,losei nt er esta lo ngt hewa y .
Thee ve nt -oriente dwo rldv ie wl eadst oa ne ven Lo rient eda ppr oa cht opr o blem
solving･ Fi gur e1 -3s howshowweo ftent ryt os o l
vepr obl ems .Wea ss e
sst hes ta te
ofa fa irsa ndc ompa rei t too urgoa ls.Thega pbe twe e nt hes itua ti
o nwede si
r ea nd
thesitua ti
onwepe rce ivede f
ine so urpr o ble m･ Fo re xampl e ,suppos es a
leso fy our
organi zationwe re$8 0mi llionl astq ua rter, bu tyo urs ale sgoa lwa s$1 00mi l
lion.
Thepr oble mi stha ts ale sa re2 0%l e sstha nyo ude sired. Yo ut henc ons i
derva io
r us
optlOnSt Oc or r
ec tthepr obl em. Yo umi g htc utpr l
Ce StOS timul atede ma nda ndi n-
creasema rke tsha re ,r epl ac et hev icepr esidentofs aleswi t hs omeo nemo rea g-
gressive ,ort akeo the ra c t
ions .Yo us elec ttheo ptlOnyo ude embe sta ndi mpl e me nt
it
,l eading( yo uho pe )t oabe t
te rr esult .Yo umi ghto bs e rveyo urs alesi nc reas e:
problems ol ve d. Ors oi ts ee ms .
Thes ys temr ea ctst oyours olution: Asyo urs ale sris e,c ompe tit
or sc utpnc e s,
ands alesf alla ga in.Ye sterda y' ss olut ionbe c ome st oda y'spr oble m. Wea r eno t
puppe tma stersinflue nc ingaS yste mOutt he re-wea ree mbe dde di nt hes ystem.
Thepu ppe tma ster'smove me nt sr espo ndt ot hepos iti
onoft hema rione t
teo nt he
str
lngS .The reisf ee dba c k: Ther esul t
so fo ura ctionsde finet hes itua tionwef acei n
t
hef uture.Thene ws itua t
i ona lterso ura ssessme ntoft hepr obl ema ndt hede c i-
sionswet a ket omor r ow( se et het opo fFi g ure1 -4).
Po licyr es i
stanc ea ri s
e sbe c aus eweo ftend onotu nde rstandt hef u
llr ang eo f
feedba ckso per a
tingi nt hes ys tem( Figur eト4) .Aso ura c ti
o nsa ltert hes tateo ft he
system,O the rpe opl er eac tt or e st
o ret heba l
anc eweha veups et･Oura ctionsma y
als
ot rlgge rS idee ffe c ts.

GURE l
FI l 3 Goal
s
Ev
vi
en
t
ewo
10r
ft
J
l
en
h
ted
eworl
d
i
i Zg
Pr em 一一一一｣ト Deci
obl sion → Resul
ts
.//P.
I
Si
tuat
ion
 Cha
pte
r1 Le
arn
ingl
nanda
boutCo
mpl
exSys
tems ll

Wef reque ntlyt lka

a bouts i
dee fe ctsa si ftheywe reaf eatur eofr ea lity
. Nots o.
Inre al
ity, t
he rear enos idee fe cts,the rea rej usteHects.Whe nwet akea c ti
on, he
t re
areva riouse fe cts.Thee ffectswet houg h tofi na dvanc e,orwe rebe ne ficial,we
callthema in,ori ntende de f f
ec ts
.Thee fe ctswedi dn'ta ntlC I
Pa t
e,t hee fe cts
whic hf edba cktounde rcutourpol icy ,thee fe ct
swhi chha me
r dt hes ys tem-t hes e
aretheone swec laimt obes idee ff
e cts, Si dee ff
e ct
sarenotaf ea t
ureofr e
a l
itybut
as i
g ntha touru n de r
standi ngo ft hes ys temi sna rr
owa ndflawe d.
Una nticipateds idee f
fe ct
sa risebe ca usewet ooof tena c
ta sifc aus ea nde fe ct
we r
ea lwa ysc lose l
yl inke di ntimea nds pa ce.Buti nc ompl exs ystemss uc ha sa n
urbanc enteroraha ms ter(o rabus i
ne ss,s oc iety,orecosys t
em)c ausea nde f
fec ta
re
oftendi stanti ntimea nds pa ce. Na rrowmode lbounda ie
r sof tenl e a
dt obe li
ef stha t
violatethel awso fphys ic s:inthem i d1 990sCa lifor
niaandt hea utomobi leindus -
tryde bate dthei n troduc ti
onofs oICa l
ledz eroe missi
onve hicles( ZEVs )t or educ e
irpol
a lution.Tr ue,t heZEVs -e lecticc
r a
r s
-woul dha venot ai
lpipe.Butt he
powe rpl a ntsrequi redt oma ket hee le ctrlCltyt Orunthe mdoge ne ratepol l
ution. In
reli
a y,Ca
t li
for niawa spr omot l
ngt hea do ptionofDEVs -di s plac ede mi ss
ionve
-
hicl
e s-C arswh os ewa s
t eswoul dbl owdownwi ndt oothe rstatesora cc umul a tein
nuclea rwa st
ed umpsout sidei t
sbor de rs. Elec t
riccarsma ytur noutt obea ne nvi -
ronme nt alboonc ompa r e
dt oint er
na lc ombus tion.Thet ec
hnol ogyl Si mpr ovl ng
rapidly,a ndairpo llutioni sama jorhe althpr oblemi nma nyc ities･Butnomodeof

FIGURE1-4
Thefeedbackvi
ew

Envi
ronment

Ourd
eci
si
onsal
t
erouren
vir
onmen
t,l
eadi
ngt
one
wdec
isi
ons,

Goa･
s ES
de
dc
e
ts

Goalsof
Other
Agents

but
alsot
ri
gger
lngSi
deeff
ects,del
ayedr
e ac
ti
on s,changes
i
ngoal
sandint
eⅣen t
i
onsbyo t
hers.Thesefeedb acksmay
le
adtounant
icJ
Pat
edresult
sandinef
fect
i
vep o一i
ci
es.
12 P
artI P
ers
pec
ti
vea
ndP
roc
ess

tr
ansportore ner
gyc onver
sionpr ocessisfreeofe nvi
ronme nta
limpa ct
,andno
le
gisl
aturecanreea
p lthesecondl awoft hermodyna mic
s ･
3
Toa voidpolicyresi
sta
nc ea ndf indhighleveragepol i
ciesrequlr
eSuSt Oex -

pandthebo undari
esofourme nta lmode l
ss othatwebec omea wareofandunder-
st
andthei mplic
ati
onsofthef eedba ckscreat
edbyt hedec is
ionswema ke･Thati
s,
wemus tlearnaboutthestr
uc t
urea nddyna micsoftheinc r
eas l
nglycomplexsys-
te
msi nwhi chwea reembedde d.

1.
1.3 Feedback
Muc hoft hea r tofs ys tem dyna mi csmode l
ingi sdi scove nnga ndr e pre se ntlngt he
fe e
dba ckpr oce ss es,whi ch,a longwi ths toc ka ndf lows t
uc
r t
ur e s,timede lays ,a nd
nonli ne ait
r ies,de termi net hedyna mi csofas ys tem. Youmi h ti
g ma ginet ha tthe r e
isa ni mme nser angeofdi fe rentf ee dba ckpr oc es sesa ndot he rs truc tur est obe
ma st
e redbe for eonec anunde rstandt hedyna ic
m sofc ompl exs ys tems .Inf a ct
, the
mos tc ompl exbe ha vi or sus ua llya risef romt hei nt era ct
ions( f eedba cks )a mo ngt he
compone ntsoft hes ys tem, notf ro mt hec ompl exi tyoft hec ompone ntst he ms elve s･
l ldyna
A mi csa risef rom t hei nter actionofj us tt wot ype soff ee dba c kl oo ps ,
Pos itive( orse lf-re i
nf o rcing)a ndne ga tive( ors elf- corre ct
ing)l oops( Fi g ur e1 15) ･
Pos itivel oopst endt or einf or ceora mpl ifywha teve ri sha ppe nl ngi nt hes ystem:
Themo renuc lea rwe a ponsNATOde ploye ddur ingt heCol dWa r,themo ret heSo-

vi e
tUni onbui lt,le adingNATOt obui lds til
lmor e. Ifaf i
n l owe rsitspnc et oga ln
ma rke ts hare,i tsc ompe tit
o rsma yr e spondi nki nd,f orc i
ngt hef i
r mt ol owe ri ts
pnc es tillmor e. Thel a rge rt hei ns tal
l edba s eofMi cros oftsof twarea ndl nt elma-

chine s ,themor ea ttrac t

ivet he" Wi nte lMa r chitec turebe c amea sde ve lope r ss ought
thel a rges tma rke tfo rt he irs oft warea ndc us t
ome rss oughts yste msc ompa tibl e
wi tht hemos ts of t
wa re;t hemo r eWi nte lc omput erss ol d,thel arge rthei ns talled
ba se. Thes epos itivel oopsa rea llpr oc e ssest ha tge ner atethe irowngr owt h,l e ad-
1ngt Oa m Sr ac es ,pnC eWa rs ,a ndt hephe nome na lgr owt hofMi cros of ta ndl nt el,
re s
pe c t
ive ly.
Ne ga tivel oopsc ount era cta ndoppos ec ha nge･ Thel es snic otinei nac iga r
e t
t e,
themor es moke r smus tc ons umet oge tt hedos et he yne ed. Themor ea ttra cti
vea
ne i
ghbor hoodorc ity,t hegr e a tert hei nml gr ationf rom s urroundi nga rea swi l
lbe,
incre asingune mpl oyme nt,hous lngPnC eS ,C rowdi ngi nt hes chool s,a ndt raffi c
conges tionunt iliti snomo rea ttra ctivet ha not he rpl acespe opl emi ghtl ive･ The
highe rt hepnc eofac ommodi ty,t hel owe rt hede ma nda ndt hegr ea tert hepr o-
duc tion,l ea dingt oi nve ntor ya cc umul a ti
ona ndpr es suref orl owe rpnc e st oe l
ii-
m
na t
et hee xc esss toc k.Thel a rge rthema rke ts ha reofdomi na ntf irms ,t hemo r e
likelyi sgove rnme nta ntitrus ta c tiont ol imi tt he irmonopol ypower ･Thes el oo ps
allde s cribepr oc essest ha tte ndt obes e l
f-1iml tlng, proc essest ha ts ee kba lanc ea nd
equi li
br ium.

3
Evensc
ie
nti
st
ssuff
erf
romthes
epr
oblems･
Ioncehea
rdadis
ti
ngui
she
dphys
ic
is
tar
guet
hatt
he
s
ol
uti
ontot
heene
rgyprob
lemwastob
uildhun
dre
dsofhugeofsh
orenu
cle
rp
a o
werst
at
io
ns,
tobe
c
ool
edbysea
wate
r.Thewan wast
ewa
terwoul
dbep u
mpedbackint
heocea
nwher
e,h
esai
d,
"
Thewast
ehea
twou l
ddis
appe
ar.
"Out
ofs i
ght
,ou
tofmind･
 Cha
pte
r1 Le
arn
ingl
nanda
boutCompl
exSys
tems 1
3

GURE 1
FI -
5
Posi
ti
veandnegat
ivef
eedbackl
oops
r ･
Posi
lnthi
t
ivef eedback:Posi
scase,mor echi ck
ti
veL
ensl
oopsar
aymor
esel
eeggs,
f
- r
ei
whi
nfor cmg.
chhat ch
Eggs り chi
ckens
andaddt
eggs,
othechi
andsoon･
ck enpopuF
ACaus
atjon,J
alLoopDi
eadi
agr
ngt os
am orCLD(
till
mor e
chap- ナ
㌧ ノ//
ter5)Capt ur
est hef eedbackdependencyofchi ckens Asyst
em'
sfeedbackst
ruct
ure
andeggs.Thear rowsi ndicatet hec ausalr elationshi ps.
The+st
positi
vel
gnsatt
yr el
at
hear
edt ot
rowheadsi
hec
ndi
ause:ani
cat
ncr
e的at的eef
easei nt he
f
ec tis
M
gener
atesi
tsdynami
cs
chickenpopuF atl
Lonc ausest henumberofeggsl ai
deach
dayt or i
seabovewhati twoul dhavebeen( andvi ce
versa:adecr easei nt hechick enpopuf ati
oncausesegg
l
ayingt of aHbel owwhati twoul dhav ebeen) .Thel oopi s
self
-reinforcJ
ng,henc ethel ooppol ari
tyiden ti
fierRJf
thi
sLoopwer et heonJ yoneoper at i
ng,thechi ck enand
eggpopul ati
onwoul dbot hgr owexponent i
aH y.
Ofcour se,nor eal quantitycangr owf orever. Ther emus t
bel i
mll
tSt Ogrowt h. Thesel r
f
mi tSar eCreatedbynegat i
ve
feedback.

Negat ivefeedback:Negat ivel oopsar eself-correcting.

Theyc ount
erac tchange. Asthechi ck enpopul ation St
ruct
ure:
gr ows, vari
ousnegat i
vel oopswi "ac ttobalancet he

鯉
chi ckenpopul ationwi t
hi tscarrylngC apacity.OnecF asI
sicf eedbacki sshownher e:Themor echi ckens, the ･
.
/--
ー､､七了
mor eroadcr oss∫ngst heyw川at temp t.J
fthereisany
traffi
c,mor eroadcr osslngSWi lHeadt of ewerchi ck ens
chi
ekens cr
oRs
os
?n
dgS
(hencet henegat i
ve-pol arit
yf orthel i
nkf r
om r oad
cr
l
at
br
ossi
l
r
i
OnC
ngt
ngstochi
ausesmor
hechick
ckens)
er i
.
sk
enpopul
Ani
yr
at
ncr
oadcr
i
easei
ossl
onbackdo
nt hechi
ngs,whi
wn.
ck
cht
TheBi
enpopul
hen
nt he
･
恵
､ 一､ - ∫ / ■

cen terofal oopdenot esabal anclngf eedback.l ft he 並

road- crossi
ngl oopwast heonl yoneoper ati
ng( saybe- Behavi
or:
causethefar
mers el
lsa‖theヲggs) ,thenumberof
chi
ckenswouldgr aduaHydecl l
neun ti
lnoneremained.
AHsystems,nomat t
erhowcompl ex,consi
stofnet- Road
worksofposi
tiveandnegat ivefeedbacks,anda" Cr
ossi
ngs
dynamicsari
sef r
omt heinteract
iono ft
heseloops
wit
honeanot her.
Chi
ckens

Ti
me
14 P
artI P
ers
pec
ti
vea
ndP
roc
ess

1.
i.4 Pr
ocessPoi
nt:TheMeani
ngofFeedback
Inc ommonpa rlanc ethet e
rm" f
eed back"ha sc omet os erveasae uphe mismf or
cr i
ticizl
ngOt he rs,asin" thebo ssga vemef ee
dba ckonmypr e s
e nt
a t
ion･"Thi suse
o ffeedba cki sno twha tweme anins ystemdyna mi c s.Fur ther, "posit
iv efeedback"
doe snotme an" praise"and" negativef eedback"d oesno tme an" cri
ticism."Pos i
-
tivef eedba ckd enote sas el
f-reinforcingp rocess ,andne gativef eedba ckd enote
sa
se l
f-correctlngO ne .Ei t
herty peo floo pc anbegoodo rba d,de pendingo nwhi ch
wa yl tiso pe rat
lnga ndofc o urseo nyo urva lue s･Re s
e rvet het ermspos iti
vea nd
ne ga t
ivefe e
d bac kfors el
f-reinforci
nga nds el
f-c orrectingp roc e
s s
es ,
a nda voidde-
sc r
ibingt hec riti
c i
smyo ugl VeO rr eceivet oothe rsa sf T
e edba ck.Te l
lings ome one
you ro plniond oe sno tconstitutefeed backunl esst heya cto nyours ug gesti
onsa nd
thusl eadyo ut or evisey ourv iew.
Tho ught herea reo nl
yt wot y
pe so ffeedba ckl oo p, mo de lsma ye a si
lyc ont
ain
thous andsofl oo ps,o fbotht ypes,c oupledt oonea not herwi thmul tipletimede -
lays ,nonlineariti
e s
, andac c
umul at
io ns.Thedyna mi c
so fa l
ls ystemsa r i
sefromt he
inter a
c t
ionsoft hesene two rkso ffe edba c
ks .Intuitionma ye nableust oinferthe
dyna micso fi s
o l
a t
edl oopss ucha st hoses howni nFi gur eト5･ Butwhe nmul ti
ple
loo psinteract,itisno tsoe asytod etemi
r newha tthed yna mi cswi llbe. Beforecon-
tinulng,t r
yt hec hallenges ho wni nFi gu re1-6. Whe ni ntuitionf ails,Weus ua
lly
tu仙 t oc omput ers i
mu lat
iont ode duc ethebe havi oro fou rmode l
s･

Dymami
eso菅Mu司
モ岳
pBe-
』⑳opSys官
ems
Wha tar
ethedy namicso
fthec
hicke
npo pul
ati
onwhenbo t
hl oo
psaresimult
ane-
ousl
ya ct
ive(FigureL6)?Ske
tchag r
aphshowingthebeha vi
orofthechicke
n
popula
tio
no verti
me .
Assumet
heini
tia
lchic
kenpopula
tio
ni ssmal
l(butin
cludes
atle
astonerooste
r).

r ･r ･
Eggs 鯉 chj
ckens りc
r
o
Ro ss
qn
d｡S

･
較 ㌧ノ/
/ 架 ㌧ノ/
//
1.
2 NG J
LEARNI sA FEEDBACK PROCESS
Justa sdyna micsa r
isefr
omf eedback,sotooalll
earningdepe ndsonf e
ed bac
k･We
ma kede cisi
o nsthatalt
ertherelwo
a r
ld;wegatherinfoma tionfeedbacka bo
utthe
r
e alwo r
ld,a ndus ingthene wi nfor
ma t
ionwer e
viseo urunde rsta
ndingo fthe
wo rldandt hede cis
ionswema ketobringourperceptl
O nOfthestateofthesyst
em
closertoo urgoa ls(Figu
re1 -
7).
Thef eedba ckloopinFi g
urel 17appear
sinma nygui sesthroughoutthesoc
ial
sciences.Ge o r
geRi c
hardson( 1991)
,inhishi s
tor
yo ffeedbackc onceptsinthe
socialscience s
,showshowbe g i
nnlnginthe1940sl e
a di
ngthinke r
sinec onomi
c s
,