Actual Forecasted Actual Forecasted

Month 2014-15 2014-15 Difference Diff % 2015-16 2015-16

Oct 361,878 285,884 -75,994 -21% 369,263 225,251
Nov 388,700 287,638 -101,062 -26% 396,633 305,407
Dec 471,964 353,973 -117,991 -25% 462,710 300,761
Jan 506,876 740,039 233,163 46% 533,554 757,646
Feb 324,088 499,096 175,008 54% 317,733 457,536
Mar 282,239 412,069 129,830 46% 276,705 395,688
Apr 262,752 417,776 155,024 59% 273,700 407,813
May 523,622 644,055 120,433 23% 508,371 615,128
Jun 534,725 689,796 155,071 29% 534,725 695,143
Jul 556,598 812,633 256,035 46% 530,093 779,237
Aug 561,567 864,813 303,246 54% 534,826 839,676
Sep 318,933 500,725 181,792 57% 306,667 490,667
5,093,942 6,508,497 1,414,555 28% 5,044,980 6,269,953

Observations
1 There is a constant difference of approx. 20% in forecast being on a higher side
2 Thand mein beer zyada pee rhe he than forecasted
 Actual Forecasted Actual
Difference Diff % 2016-17 2016-17 Difference Diff % 2017-18
-144,012 -39% 343,784 271,589 -72,195 -21% 293,250
-91,226 -23% 378,784 276,513 -102,271 -27% 332,025
-161,949 -35% 440,500 281,920 -158,580 -36% 383,397
224,092 42% 491,937 728,066 236,129 48% 431,149
139,803 44% 293,903 434,977 141,074 48% 250,803
118,983 43% 265,083 371,116 106,033 40% 228,212
134,113 49% 262,205 390,685 128,480 49% 224,913
106,757 21% 470,243 597,208 126,965 27% 408,069
160,418 30% 504,246 620,223 115,977 23% 431,310
249,144 47% 496,697 794,716 298,019 60% 433,871
304,850 57% 501,132 761,720 260,588 52% 427,299
184,000 60% 289,187 442,456 153,269 53% 254,349
1,224,973 24% 4,737,701 5,971,189 1,233,488 26% 4,098,647
Forecasted
2017-18 Difference % Diff
205,275 -87,975 -30%
265,620 -66,405 -20%
237,706 -145,691 -38%
646,723 215,574 50%
388,744 137,941 55%
319,497 91,285 40%
314,878 89,965 40%
514,167 106,098 26%
560,702 129,392 30%
672,500 238,629 55%
675,132 247,833 58%
381,524 127,175 50%
5,182,468 1,083,821 26%
 Actual Actual Actual Actual

Month 2014-15 2015-16 Difference 2016-17 Difference 2017-18 Difference

Oct 361,878 369,263 7,385 343,784 -25,479 293,250 -50,534

Nov 388,700 396,633 7,933 378,784 -17,849 332,025 -46,759
Dec 471,964 462,710 -9,254 440,500 -22,210 383,397 -57,103
Jan 506,876 533,554 26,678 491,937 -41,617 431,149 -60,788
Feb 324,088 317,733 -6,355 293,903 -23,830 250,803 -43,100
Mar 282,239 276,705 -5,534 265,083 -11,622 228,212 -36,871
Apr 262,752 273,700 10,948 262,205 -11,495 224,913 -37,292
May 523,622 508,371 -15,251 470,243 -38,128 408,069 -62,174
Jun 534,725 534,725 - 504,246 -30,479 431,310 -72,936
Jul 556,598 530,093 -26,505 496,697 -33,396 433,871 -62,826
Aug 561,567 534,826 -26,741 501,132 -33,694 427,299 -73,833
Sep 318,933 306,667 -12,266 289,187 -17,480 254,349 -34,838
5,093,942 5,044,980 -48,962 4,737,701 -307,279 4,098,647 -639,054

Observations
1 There is a steep decline in actuals over the years
2 Decline is expected of 10% Cause fall is by 3%. So 5+3+2% cause of new variant
 2018-19 with
Average of 4 17% Mkt
years share Year Market
330,476 185,812 361,878.00 738,526 2014-15 14,554,120
364,642 205,022 1,031,352.00 1,173,000 2015-16 14,699,661
425,247 239,098 3,304,756.00 2016-17 14,846,658
477,439 268,443 330,475.60 2017-18 14,995,124
284,448 159,933 2018-19 15,145,076
254,375 143,024
249,642 140,363
458,337 257,703
484,215 272,253
484,236 272,265
484,381 272,347
281,722 158,400
4,579,159 2,574,662.86
% Share in Market of A Percentage
35%
34% 1%
32% 2%
27% 5%
17% 8% + 2%
 Actual Actual Actual

Month 2014-15 2015-16 Difference 2016-17 Difference Average of 2017 Estimation

3 Years

Oct 361,878 369,263 7,385 343,784 -25,479 426351.2 315342.47971593

Nov 388,700 396,633 7,933 378,784 -17,849 463663.6 342939.88002852
Dec 471,964 462,710 -9,254 440,500 -22,210 543776.8 402194.07034387
Jan 506,876 533,554 26,678 491,937 -41,617 609959 451144.4639655
Feb 324,088 317,733 -6,355 293,903 -23,830 368252.6 272370.96564015
Mar 282,239 276,705 -5,534 265,083 -11,622 326179.6 241252.47893462
Apr 262,752 273,700 10,948 262,205 -11,495 319353.4 236203.61115839
May 523,622 508,371 -15,251 470,243 -38,128 590218.6 436543.85609437
Jun 534,725 534,725 - 504,246 -30,479 623382.6 461072.97199061
Jul 556,598 530,093 -26,505 496,697 -33,396 621375 459588.0891938
Aug 561,567 534,826 -26,741 501,132 -33,694 626923 463691.56087974
Sep 318,933 306,667 -12,266 289,187 -17,480 359965.6 266241.6451893
5,093,942 5,044,980 -48,962 4,737,701 -307,279 5,879,401 4,348,586.07

Prediction improved from 51

 Actuals
2017

293,250
332,025
383,397 Year Market % Share in Market of A
431,149 2014-15 14,554,120 35%
250,803 2015-16 14,699,661 34%
228,212 2016-17 14,846,658 32%
224,913 2017-18 14,995,124.39 29%
408,069
431,310
433,871
427,299
254,349
4,098,647

ediction improved from 5182468 to 4348586