NCOV 2019

Scientists and health authorities around the world are racing to halt the spread of a deadly virus that
emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Thousands of people have already contracted the
new coronavirus, which causes respiratory illness. The death toll is at 213, and is rising daily. On 30
January, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a “public-health emergency of
international concern” — an alarm it reserves for events that pose a risk to multiple countries and which
requires a coordinated international response.

China virus: latest news on spreading infection

Crucial details about the virus and how it spreads are still unknown, but experts are considering best-
and worst-case scenarios on the basis of previous epidemics and what scientists already know.

How many people will the virus infect?

Chinese authorities have locked down cities at the centre of the epidemic, and researchers were quick
to share data on the virus with the World Health Organization and researchers. But the case numbers
have been rising, and surged past 9,000 in the past day, mostly in China. This has led to one prediction
that the virus could infect about 39,000 of the 30 million people living in the region of Wuhan. “It seems
like the virus has got out of hand in China, spread too far, too quickly to really be contained,” says Ian
Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia.

In the best case, fewer people will be infected because the effects of the control measures will start
kicking in, says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong. But it’s too early to tell
whether efforts to quarantine people, and the widespread use of face masks, are working. The
incubation period for the virus — up to 14 days — is longer than most control measures have been in
place, he says.

China coronavirus: Six questions scientists are asking

In a worst-case scenario, some 190,000 people could be infected in Wuhan, according to another
prediction model. Scientists are particularly concerned about fresh outbreaks emerging outside China.
The virus has already spread in small, localized clusters in Vietnam, Japan, Germany and the United
States, but authorities have been quick to isolate the people affected. Fewer than 100 cases have been
recorded outside China as of 30 January.
Is the virus here to stay?

When a virus circulates continuously in a community, it is said to be endemic. The viruses that cause
chicken pox and influenza are endemic in many countries, but outbreaks can be controlled through
vaccination and keeping people at home when they are ill.

One big question is whether the coronavirus is also here to stay. If efforts to contain it fail, there’s a high
chance that it will become endemic. As with influenza, this could mean that deaths occur every year as
the virus circulates, until a vaccine is developed. If the virus can be spread by people who are infected
but don’t have symptoms, it will be more difficult to control its spread, making it more likely that the
virus will become endemic.

China coronavirus: how many papers have been published?

There have been several cases of infected people displaying no symptoms, but it’s still unclear whether
such asymptomatic or mild cases are common, and whether or how infectious they are. “We’re possibly
looking at a virus that’s going to be with us for a long time, possibly forever,” says Mackay.

Asymptomatic cases set the new virus apart from the related coronavirus that causes severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS). There was a global outbreak of this virus in 2002–03, but it usually spread
only once people were ill enough to need hospital care. Once outbreaks in hospitals were brought under
control, SARS was contained. There is no evidence that the virus is still circulating in humans, says
Mackay.

If control measures are effective, and transmission slows so that each infected person infects no more
than one other person, the current outbreak could simply peter out, says Cowling.

Is the virus likely to change?

Some researchers are worried that as the China coronavirus spreads, the pathogen could mutate so it
can spread more efficiently, or become more likely to cause disease in young people. Currently, the virus
has caused severe illness, and death, mainly in older people, particularly those with pre-existing
conditions such as diabetes and heart disease. A 36-year-old Wuhan man with no known pre-existing
health conditions is the youngest victim reported so far.