9.

A survey was given to sophomores at a university and one of the questions

asked was “What is the probability that you will leave school before you
graduate?” The answer to this question for an individual student is an example of
10. a relative frequency probability based on long-run observation.
11. a relative frequency probability based on physical assumptions.
12. a personal probability.
13. a probability based on measuring a representative sample and observing relative
frequencies that fall into various categories.

KEY: C

10. A thumbtack is tossed repeatedly and observed to see if the point lands resting
on the floor or sticking up in the air. The goal is to estimate the probability that a
thumbtack would land with the point up. That probability is an example of
11. a relative frequency probability based on long-run observation.
12. a relative frequency probability based on physical assumptions.
13. a personal probability.
14. a probability based on measuring a representative sample and observing relative
frequencies that fall into various categories.

KEY: A

11. Which of the following is an example of a relative frequency probability based on

measuring a representative sample and observing relative frequencies of
possible outcomes?
12. According to the late Carl Sagan, the probability that the earth will be hit by a
civilization-threatening asteroid in the next century is about 0.001.
13. If you flip a fair coin, the probability that it lands with heads up is ½.
14. Based on a recent Newsweek poll, the probability that a randomly selected adult
in the US would say they oppose federal funding for stem cell research is about
0.37.
15. A new airline boasts that the probability that its flights will be on time is 0.92,
because 92% of all flights it has ever flown did arrive on time.

KEY: C

12. A survey was given to sophomores at a university and one of the questions
asked was “What is the probability that you will leave school before you
graduate?” The answer to this question for an individual student is an example of
13. a relative frequency probability based on long-run observation.
14. a relative frequency probability based on physical assumptions.
 15. a probability based on measuring a representative sample and observing relative
frequencies that fall into various categories.
16. a personal probability.

KEY: D

13. Students at a university who apply for campus housing can be assigned to live in
a dormitory room, a suite in a dormitory or an apartment. If Alice has a 0.30
chance of being assigned to a dormitory room and a 0.50 chance of being
assigned to a suite in a dormitory, what is the probability that she will be
assigned to an apartment?

KEY: 0.20

14. When a fair coin is tossed two times, there is a 25% chance of getting 0 heads
and a 50% chance of getting 1 head. What is the chance of getting 2 heads?

KEY: 25%

15. When 2 cards are drawn at random from a standard 52-card deck, there is a
0.8507 chance of drawing 0 Aces, and a 0.1448 chance of drawing 1 Ace. What
is the chance of drawing 2 Aces?

KEY: 0.0045

16. A plane flies over the ocean in search of schools of fish. On any given day, there
is a 0.07 chance of finding 2 or more schools of fish, and a 0.28 chance of finding
only one school of fish. What is the chance the day of searching results in not
finding any schools of fish at all?

KEY: 0.65

17. When two dice are rolled, there are 36 possible outcomes. Six of these outcomes
have two the same numbers (two ones, two twos, etc.). The chance of getting
two of the same numbers when rolling two dice is 6/36 or 0.1667. What is the
chance of getting 2 numbers that are different from one another?

KEY: 0.8333
 18. Every year, on the first day of school, the sixth grade teacher at Greenville
Middle School asks his students to pick their favorite primary color: red, yellow,
or blue. From years of experience, the teacher knows that only 1 in 7 students
choose yellow and that about half of the students pick blue. What is the chance
that a student picks red?

KEY: 0.357

19. The lifetime risk for a woman to develop breast cancer is estimated to be about 1
in 8. Express this probability as a fraction, as a proportion, and as a percentage.

KEY: fraction = 1/8; proportion = 0.125; percentage = 12.5%

Questions 20 to 23: A statistics class has 4 teaching assistants (TAs): three female
assistants (Lauren, Rona, and Leila) and one male assistant (Josh). Each TA teaches
one discussion section.

20. A student picks a discussion section. The two events W = {the TA is a woman}
and J = {the TA is Josh} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
4. None of the above.

KEY: B

21. A student picks a discussion section. The events L = {the TA is Lauren} and R =
{the TA is Rona} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
4. None of the above.

KEY: Both B and C

 22. A student picks a discussion section. The two events W = {the TA is a woman}
and M = {the TA is a man} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
4. None of the above.

KEY: B

23. Two students, Bill and Tom, who don’t know each other, each pick a discussion
section. The two events
B = {Bill’s TA is Lauren} and T = {Tom’s TA is a woman} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
4. None of the above.

KEY: A

Questions 24 to 27: Students who live in the dorms at a college get free T.V. service in their
rooms, but only receive 6 stations. On a certain evening, a student wants to watch T.V. and the
six stations are broadcasting separate shows on baseball, football, basketball, local news, national
news, and international news. The student is too tired to check which channels the shows are
playing on, so the student picks a channel at random.

24. The two events A = {the student watches an athletic event} and N = {the student watches
a news broadcast} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
4. None of the above.

KEY: B

25. The events F = {the student watches football} and B = {the student watches baseball} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
 4. None of the above.

KEY: Both B and C

26. The two events F = {the student watches football} and A = {the student watches an
athletic event} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
4. None of the above.

KEY: D

27. On a different night, two students who don’t know each other each choose a channel this
way. The two events, N = {the first student watches a news broadcast } and F = {the
second student watches football} are
1. independent events.
2. disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
3. each simple events.
4. None of the above.

KEY: A

28. Lauren wants to wear something warm when she leaves for class. She reaches into her
coat closet without looking and grabs a hanger. Based on what she has in her coat closet,
she has a 30% chance of picking a sweater, a 50% chance of picking a coat, and a 20%
chance of picking a jacket. What is the probability that she will pick a sweater or a coat?
1. 15%
2. 30%
3. 50%
4. 80%

KEY: D

29. A birth is selected at random. Define events B = {the baby is a boy} and F = {the mother
had the flu during her pregnancy}. The events B and F are
1. disjoint but not independent.
2. independent but not disjoint.
 3. disjoint and independent.
4. neither disjoint nor independent.

KEY: B

Questions 30 and 31: A student is randomly selected from a large college campus. Define the
events
H = {the student has blond hair} and E = {the student has blue eyes}.

30. The events H and E are

1. disjoint but not independent.
2. independent but not disjoint.
3. disjoint and independent.
4. neither disjoint nor independent.

KEY: D

31. The chance that a blond haired student has blue eyes equals 75%. How do we write this
probability?
1. P(H) = 0.75
2. P(E) = 0.75
3. P(E|H) = 0.75
4. P(H|E) = 0.75

KEY: C

Questions 32 to 34: A student is randomly selected from a large college. Define the events C =
{the student owns a cell phone} and I = {the student owns an iPod}.

32. Which of the following is the correct interpretation of the probability P(I|C)?
1. The chance that a randomly selected student owns an iPod.
2. The percentage of students who own both a cell phone and an iPod.
3. The proportion of students who own a cell phone who also own an iPod.
4. The relative frequency of iPod owners who own a cell phone.

KEY: C
 33. Which of the following is the correct notation for the percentage of students who own a
cell phone but not an iPod?
1. P(C|I)
2. P(C|IC)
3. P(CC and I)
4. P(C and IC)

KEY: D

34. Suppose you know that your friend’s sister, who attends this college, owns a cell phone
and you are wondering what would be the chance that she owns an iPod. What type of
probability would this be?
1. A probability of independent events.
2. A probability of dependent events.
3. A conditional probability.
4. A probability of disjoint events.

KEY: C

Questions 35 to 37: A football player is randomly selected from all NCAA Division I college
teams. Define the events D = {the football player plays defense} and T = {the football player is
over 6 feet tall}.

35. How do we interpret the probability P(D|T)?

KEY: The proportion (or percentage) of tall football players (players over 6 feet) who play
defense.

36. Suppose the percentage of football players who play defense that are shorter than 6 feet
tall is only 8%. How do write this statement using events D and T?

KEY: P(TC|D) = 0.08

 37. Refer to question 36. Suppose that we also know that of all NCAA Division I football
players, 15% are shorter than 6 feet. What do we know about events D and T?
1. They are independent events.
2. They are dependent events.
3. They are disjoint events.

KEY: B

38. At a particular university, a study has shown that students who live on campus are more
likely to have GPAs over 3.0 than students who do not. A freshman at this university is
randomly selected at the beginning of the fall term. Define events A = {the student lives
on campus}, and B = {the student has a GPA over 3.0 at the end of the fall term}.
According to the housing office, P(A) = .80. Which statement is definitely true about
P(B|A) based on this information?
1. P(B|A) = .80
2. P(B|A) is greater than P(B|not A)
3. P(B|A) is less than P(B|not A)
4. P(B|A) = P(B|not A)

KEY: B

Section 7.4

39. Michael wants to take French or Spanish, or both. But classes are closed, and he must
apply and get accepted to be allowed to enroll in a language class. He has a 50% chance
of being admitted to French, a 50% chance of being admitted to Spanish, and a 20%
chance of being admitted to both French and Spanish. If he applies to both French and
Spanish, the probability that he will be enrolled in either French or Spanish (or possibly
both) is
1. 70%
2. 80%
3. 90%
4. 100%

KEY: B

40. If one card is randomly picked from a standard deck of 52 cards, the probability that the
card will be a number from 2 through 10, or a Heart, or both, is
 51. 9% (27/52)
52. 2% (36/52)
53. 9% (40/52)
54. 2% (49.52)

KEY: C

41. If one card is randomly picked from a standard deck of 52 cards, the probability that the
card will be a red suit (Heart or Diamond), or a face card (Jack, Queen, or King), or both,
is
50. 0% (26/52)
51. 5% (32/52)
52. 9% (40/52)
53. 5% (46/52)

KEY: B

Questions 42 to 44: A standard 52-card deck is shuffled and 2 cards are picked from the top of
the deck.

42. The probability that the first card is a Heart and the second card is a Spade is
5. 9%
6. 3%
7. 4%
8. 0%

KEY: C

43. The probability that the both cards are Hearts is

6. 3%
7. 9%
8. 4%
9. 0%

KEY: B
 44. The probability that the first card is a face card (Jack, Queen, King) and the second card
is not a face card is
5. 3%
6. 8%
7. 1%
8. 2%

KEY: C

45. Two standard 52-card decks are shuffled and two cards are picked at random — one card
from each deck. The probability that two Hearts are drawn is
5. 9%
6. 3%
7. 0 %
8. 0%

KEY: B

Questions 46 and 47: A card is drawn at random from a standard 52-card deck.

46. The conditional probability that the card is a King given that a face card (Jack, Queen, or
King) was drawn is
20. 0% (1/5)
21. 0% (1/4)
22. 3% (1/3)
23. 0% (1/2)

KEY: C

47. The conditional probability that the card is a 2 given that a 2 or a 3 was drawn is
20. 0% (1/5)
21. 0% (1/4)
22. 3% (1/3)
23. 0% (1/2)

KEY: D
 48. A soft drink company holds a contest in which a prize may be revealed on the inside of
the bottle cap. The probability that each bottle cap reveals a prize is 0.2 and winning is
independent from one bottle to the next. What is the probability that a customer must
open three or more bottles before winning a prize?
1. (0.2)(0.2)(0.8) = 0.032
2. (0.8)(0.8)(0.2) = 0.128
3. (0.8)(0.8) = 0.64
4. 1 – (0.2)(0.2)(0.8) = .968

KEY: C

Questions 49 and 50: Suppose two different states each pick a two-digit lottery number
between 00 and 99 (for a 100 possible numbers).

49. What is the probability that both states pick the number 13?
1. 2/100
2. 1/100
3. 1/200
4. 1/10,000

KEY: D

50. What is the probability that both states pick the same number?
1. 2/100
2. 1/100
3. 1/200
4. 1/10,000

KEY: B

51. A six-sided die is made that has four Green sides and two Red sides, all equally likely to
land face up when the die is tossed. The die is tossed three times. Which of these
sequences (in the order shown) has the highest probability?
52. Green, Green, Green
 53. Green, Green, Red
54. Green, Red, Red
55. They are all equally likely

KEY: A

Questions 52 to 55: A student doing an internship at a large research firm collected the
following data, representing all of the studies the firm had conducted over the past 3 years.

Type of study
Randomization part of study? Retro. Observational Pro. Observati
Yes 7 28
No 53 62

52. Suppose one study is to be randomly selected from all studies conducted over the past 3
years by this large research firm. What is the probability that this study used
randomization?
1. 1167
2. 2333
3. 26
4. 3111

KEY: B

53. What is the probability that the study used randomization, if we already know that the
study was a retrospective observational study?
1. 1167
2. 2333
3. 26
4. 3111

KEY: A

54. Define the events E = {the study was an experiment}, U = {the study used
randomization} and R = {the study was a retrospective observational study}. Which of
the following sets of events are disjoint?
1. E and U
 2. E and R
3. U and R
4. All three
5. None of the above

KEY: B

55. Define the events E = {the study was an experiment} and U = {the study used
randomization}. Are the events E and U independent?
1. Yes
2. No
3. Can’t tell
4. Need more information to determine this.

KEY: A

Questions 56 to 60: For each of the following statements, determine if they are true or false.

56. If two events A and B are independent, they must also be mutually exclusive.
57. True
58. False

KEY: B

57. If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, they must also be independent.
58. True
59. False

KEY: B

58. The probability of the intersection of two events A and B, and the probability of the
union of A and B can never be equal.
59. True
60. False
KEY: B

59. If events A and B are known to be independent and P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.3, then P(A
and B) = 0.5.
60. True
61. False

KEY: B

60. If events D and E are known to be mutually exclusive, then P(D|E) = 0.

61. True
62. False

KEY: A

61. Which of the following is definitely true for mutually exclusive events A and B?
1. P(A) = 1 – P(B)
2. P(A) + P(B) = 1
3. P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
4. P(A and B) = 0

KEY: D

62. Suppose that the probability of event A is 0.2 and the probability of event B is 0.4. Also,
suppose that the two events are independent. Then P(A|B) is:
1. P(A) = 0.2
2. P(A) / P(B) = 0.2/0.4 = ½
3. P(A)P(B) = (0.2)(0.4) = 0.08
4. None of the above.

KEY: A

63. When two cards are drawn at random from a 52 card deck, the probability of drawing one
Jack is 0.145. The probability of drawing one Ace is 0.145, and the probability of
drawing a Jack and an Ace is 0.012. What is the probability of drawing a Jack or an
Ace?
KEY: 0.278

Questions 64 and 65: When a fair coin is flipped 6 times, the probability of getting an odd
number of heads
(1, 3, or 5) is 0.5.

64. What is the probability of getting an even number of heads (0, 2, 4, or 6)?

KEY: 0.5

65. The probability of getting more than 3 heads is 0.344, and the probability of getting 5
heads is 0.094. What is the probability of getting either an odd number of heads or more
than 3 heads?

KEY: 0.75

Questions 66 to 68: A mail-order company classifies its customers by gender (male/female) and
by location of residence (urban/suburban). The market research department has determined that
2/3 of their customers are female and that 75% of their customers live in the suburbs. They have
also determined that gender and location of residence seem to be independent of one another.

66. If the mail order company will randomly select one of their customers, what is the
probability that it will be a suburban female?

KEY: 50%

67. The mail order company will randomly select one of their customers. Suppose we know
they have selected a person in the suburbs. What is the probability that this person is
female?

KEY: 2/3
 68. Making up the majority of their customers, the females and suburban customers are
identified as the focus group for their new ad campaign. If the mail order company will
randomly select one of their customers, what is the probability that it will be a suburban
customer or a female?

KEY: 0.9167

Questions 69 to 72: A study was conducted at a small college on first-year students living on
campus. A number of variables were measured. The table below provides information regarding
number of roommates and end of term health status for the first-year students at this
college. Health status for individuals is measured as poor, average, and exceptional.

Number of roommates
Health status None One
poor 15 36
average 35 94
exceptional 50 50

69. What is the probability that a randomly selected first-year student with no roommates had
poor end of term health status?

KEY: 0.15

70. What is the probability that a randomly selected first-year student with 1 roommate had
poor end of term health status?

KEY: 0.20

71. Are the events H = {the student has poor health status} and N = {the student has no
roommates} mutually exclusive?

KEY: No
 72. Are the events H = {the student has poor health status} and N = {the student has no
roommates} independent?

KEY: No

Questions 73 to 76: The following table provides information regarding health status and
smoking status of residents of a small community (health status for individuals was measured by
the number of visits to the hospital during the year).

Smoker Status
Visits Smoker Nons
None 20 100
Few 70 90
Many 90 30

73. What is the probability that a randomly selected resident made zero visits to the hospital?

KEY: 0.30

74. What is the probability that a randomly selected nonsmoker made zero visits to the
hospital?

KEY: 0.4545

75. Are the events N = {the resident does not smoke} and Z = {the resident made zero visits
to the hospital} mutually exclusive?

KEY: No

76. Are the events N = {the resident does not smoke} and Z = {the resident made zero visits
to the hospital} independent?
KEY: No

Questions 77 to 80: In a survey of 1000 adults, respondents were asked about the expense of a
college education and the relative necessity of financial assistance. The correspondents were
classified as to whether they currently had a child in college or not (college status), and whether
they thought the loan obligation for most college students was too high, about right, or too little
(loan obligation opinion). The table below summarizes some of the survey results. Use these
results to answer the following questions.

Loan Obligation Opinion

College Status Too High About Right T
Child in College 350 80 1
No Child in College 250 200 1

77. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult will think loan obligations are too
high?

KEY: P(Too High) = 600/1000 = .60

78. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult with a child in college will think
loan obligations are too high?

KEY: P(Too High | Child in College) = 350/440 = .795

79. Are the events H = {the adult thinks loan obligations are too high} and C = {the adult has
a child in college} mutually exclusive?

KEY: No, there are 350 adults that make up the event “H and C”, so the intersection is not
empty.

80. Are the events H = {the adult thinks loan obligations are too high} and C = {the adult has
a child in college} independent?

KEY: No, the probability of thinking loan obligations are too high does change if we know the
adult has a child in college; namely P(H | C) = .795 does not equal P(H) = .60.
Sections 7.5 – 7.6

Questions 81 and 82: A standard 52-card deck is shuffled and 5 cards are picked from the top
of the deck.

81. The probability that the first four cards are a red suit (Heart or Diamond) and the last card
is a black suit (Spade or Club) is
2. 53%
3. 99%
4. 13%
5. 0%

KEY: B

82. The probability that the first four cards are Aces and the last card is a 2 is
3. 1 ´ 10-7
4. 7 ´ 10-6
5. 7 ´ 10-6
6. 077

KEY: A

83. A short quiz has two true-false questions and one multiple-choice question with four
choices. A student guesses at each question. Assuming the choices are all equally likely,
what is the probability that the student gets all three correct?
1. 1/32
2. 1/3
3. 1/8
4. 1/16

KEY: D
 84. Four students’ names, including yours, are written on separate slips of paper and placed
in a box. The teacher randomly draws two names without replacement. What is the
probability that the paper with your name on it will be the second one drawn?
1. 1/4
2. 1/3
3. 1/2
4. 3/4

KEY: A

85. A medical treatment has a success rate of 0.8. Two patients will be treated with this
treatment. Assuming the results are independent for the two patients, what is the
probability that neither one of them will be successfully cured?
1. 5
2. 36
3. 2
4. 04

KEY: D

86. Elizabeth has just put 4 new spark plugs in her car. For each spark plug, the probability
that it will fail in the next 50,000 miles is 1/100 (which is 0.01), and is independent from
one spark plug to the next. What is the probability that none of the spark plugs will fail in
the next 50,000 miles?
1. (0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)
2. 1 – (0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)
3. (0.99)(0.99)(0.99)(0.99)
4. 1 – (0.99)(0.99)(0.99)(0.99)

KEY: C

87. Tree diagrams are most useful for finding probabilities when
1. all of the events involved are independent.
2. all of the events involved are mutually exclusive.
3. each random circumstance has three or more possible outcomes.
4. conditional probabilities are known in one direction, say P(A|B) and you are
trying to find them for the other direction, say P(B|A).

KEY: D
 88. Tickets for an upcoming concert are sold out but a local charity is having a raffle and the
prize is a pair of tickets to the concert. One hundred people enter the raffle, so each
individual who entered has 1/100 probability of winning the pair of tickets. You and a
friend both entered. What is the probability that one or the other of you wins the tickets?
1. 1/100
2. 2/100
3. (1/100)(1/100)
4. 2/100 – (1/100)(1/100)

KEY: B

Questions 89 to 91: Thirty percent of the students in a high school face a disciplinary action of
some kind before they graduate. Of those students, 40% go on to college. Of the 70% who do not
face a disciplinary action, 60% go on to college.

89. What percent of the students from the high school go on to college?
1. 12%
2. 42%
3. 50%
4. 54%

KEY: D

90. What is the probability that a randomly selected student both faced a disciplinary action
and went on to college?
1. 12
2. 40
3. 42
4. 84

KEY: A

91. Given that a randomly selected student goes on to college, what is the probability that he
or she faced a disciplinary action?
1. 12
2. 22
 3. 30
4. 78

KEY: B

92. Which of the following is not necessarily true for independent events A and B?
1. P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
2. P(A|B)=P(A)
3. P(B|A)=P(B)
4. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

KEY: D

93. If events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) then

1. they must also be independent.
2. they cannot also be independent.
3. they must also be complements.
4. they cannot also be complements.

KEY: B

94. A new drug is successful 80% of the time. A student would like to simulate the
probability that if 5 people are given the drug it will be successful on exactly 3 of them.
She will randomly choose digits with equal probability from 0, 1, 2, …, 9 to represent
each individual. How should she assign outcomes?
1. Digits 0 to 2 represent successful treatment while digits 3 to 9 represent failure.
2. Digits 0 to 4 represent successful treatment while digits 4 to 9 represent failure.
3. Digits 0 to 7 represent successful treatment while digits 8 and 9 represent failure.
4. Digits 0 to 8 represent successful treatment while digit 9 represents failure.

KEY: C

Questions 95 to 97: In the Banana Republic there are two producers of PCs, referred to as Pac
and Bell. Assume that there are no PC imports. The market shares for these two producers are
70% for Pac and 30% for Bell. One executive at Bell proposes a longer warranty period (similar
to one given by auto makers) to be offered at a slight extra cost as a plan to increase market
share. A market research company appointed by Bell conducts a census of PC owners on their
opinion of this warranty proposal. Among owners of a PC made by Pac, 50% like the proposal,
30% are indifferent to it, while the remaining owners oppose it. Among owners of a PC made by
Bell, 70% like the proposal, 20% are indifferent to it, and the remaining owners oppose it.

95. A PC owner will be selected at random. What is the probability that the person will own a
PC made by Bell?

KEY: 0.30

96. A PC owner will be selected at random. What is the probability that the owner will be
opposed to the proposal of a new warranty at extra cost?

KEY: 0.17

97. Suppose the selected PC owner is opposed to the new proposal. What is the conditional
probability that the person is an owner of a PC made by Bell?

KEY: 0.1765

Questions 98 to 100: Of the residents of the U.S., 43% live in Northeast/Midwest region while
the remaining 57% live in the South/West region. Of the residents in the Northeast/Midwest
region, 14% are senior citizens, while the corresponding value for the South/West region is 12%.
A citizen will be selected at random.

98. What is the probability that the person will be a senior citizen?

KEY: 0.1286

99. What is the probability that the person will be a senior citizen from the
Northeast/Midwest region?

KEY: 0.0602
 100. What is the probability that the person will be from the Northeast/Midwest region,
given that he/she is a senior citizen?

KEY: 0.4681

101. The statistics of a particular basketball player state that he makes, on average, 4
out of every 5 free throw attempts. This player is about to make 5 free throw attempts.
We wish to calculate the probability that all 5 attempts result in a goal. Explain how you
would choose random digits to simulate this scenario.

KEY: Generate random numbers between 1 and 5. Digits 1 to 4 will represent a goal and the 5
will represent a miss. Each repetition will consist of 5 values. Anytime we see a sequence
without a 5, all attempts result in a goal.

102. A standard deck of cards has 52 cards. The cards have one of 4 suites: 13 cards
are hearts, 13 cards are diamonds, 13 cards are clubs, and 13 cards are spades. We will
draw cards from a shuffled deck of cards with replacement (after we draw each card, we
will record the suite and put it back in the deck). We will keep going until we draw
hearts. We wish to calculate the probability of having to draw 3 or fewer cards. Explain
how you would choose random digits to simulate this scenario.

KEY: Generate random numbers between 1 and 4. The 1 will represent hearts; the 2, 3, and 4
will represent the other suits. Every time we simulate this process, keep going until observing a
1.

103. Belgium has two official languages, French and Dutch. Assume that about 60% of
the people use Dutch as their primary language and 40% of the people use French as their
primary language. We are about to randomly select 3 Belgians. We wish to calculate the
probability that the 3 people speak the same language. Explain how you would choose
random digits to simulate this scenario.

KEY: Generate random numbers between 1 and 5. The 1, 2 and 3 will represent Dutch, the 4
and 5 will represent French. Each repetition will consist of 3 values. Any time we see all 1, 2,
and 3’s or only 4 and 5’s, all people speak the same language.
 104. When 4 cards are drawn randomly from a standard 52-card deck without
replacement, what is the probability that the first two cards are Hearts and the second two
cards are Spades?

KEY: 0.00375

Section 7.7

105. A test to detect prostate cancer in men has a sensitivity of 95%. This means that
1. 95% of the men who test positive will actually have prostate cancer.
2. 95% of the men with prostate cancer will test positive.
3. 95% of the men who do not have prostate cancer will test negative.
4. 95% of the men who test negative will actually not have prostate cancer.

KEY: B

106. A test to detect prostate cancer in men has a specificity of 80%. This means that
1. 80% of the men who test positive will actually have prostate cancer.
2. 80% of the men with prostate cancer will test positive.
3. 80% of the men who do not have prostate cancer will test negative.
4. 80% of the men who test negative will actually not have prostate cancer.

KEY: C

107. Which of the following statements is true for 6 tosses of a fair coin, where H =
Heads and T = Tails?
1. Sequences with all heads, like HHHHHH, are less likely than specific sequences
with 3 heads and 3 tails, like HTHTHT.
2. Sequences with all heads, like HHHHHH, are more likely than specific sequences
with 3 heads and 3 tails, like HTHTHT.
3. All specific sequences six letters long (made up of H’s and T’s), regardless of the
number of H’s and T’s, are equally likely.
4. None of the above.

KEY: C
 108. Which of the following statements is true for tossing a fair coin (i.e. Probability of
Heads = ½) if the first 100 tosses of the coin result in 100 heads?
1. The chance that the next toss will be heads is almost certain.
2. The chance that the next toss will be heads is nearly 0.
3. The chance that the next toss will be heads is ½.
4. None of the above.

KEY: C

109. Imagine a test for a certain disease. Suppose the probability of a positive test
result is 0.95 if someone has the disease, but the probability is only 0.08 that someone has
the disease if his or her test result was positive. A patient receives a positive test, and the
doctor tells him that he is very likely to have the disease. The doctor’s response is
1. an example of “Confusion of the inverse.”
2. an example of the “Law of small numbers.”
3. an example of “The gambler’s fallacy.”
4. correct, because the test is 95% accurate when someone has the disease.

KEY: A

110. Consider the following three sequences of outcomes after tossing 6 coins:
HHHHHH, HHHTTT, and HTHHTH. Which of the following represents the ordering of
these three sequences in order of highest to lowest probability?
1. HTHHTH, HHHTTT, HHHHHH
2. HTHHTH, HHHTTT, HHHHHH
3. All three equally likely.
4. None of the above.

KEY: C

111. Consider the following three descriptions of outcomes after tossing 6 coins: {all
six heads}, {3 heads and 3 tails (in any order)}, and {4 heads and 2 tails (in any order)}.
Which of the following represents the ordering of these three descriptions in order of
highest to lowest probability?
1. {3 heads and 3 tails}, {all six heads}, {4 heads and 2 tails}
2. {3 heads and 3 tails}, {4 heads and 2 tails}, {all six heads}
3. All three equally likely.
4. None of the above.
KEY: B

Questions 112 and 113: It seems that every year we hear about a train derailment. Discussions
about the safety of train travel are initiated each time. Suppose there have been nine fatal train
derailments over the past 10 years. However, each year, 5 million train trips depart (this does not
include subway travel).

112. What is the relative frequency of fatal train derailments?

KEY: Roughly 1 per year or roughly 1 per every 5 million train trips.

113. Which of the following is not a correct interpretation of these numbers?

1. In the long run about 1 out of every 5 million train trips will end in a fatal
derailment.
2. The probability that you will be in a fatal train derailment is 1 in 5 million.
3. The probability that a randomly selected train trip will end in a fatal derailment is
about 1/5,000,000.
4. None of the above, all statements are correct.

KEY: B

114. Assuming that a person has an equal chance of being born on any day of a 365-
day year, what is the chance that two people chosen at random will have different
birthdays?

KEY: 99.7%