APPROACHES TO AND

ESSENTIALS OF PROBABILITIES
Learning Objectives
At the end of this module, learners are expected to:
1. Familiarize with and apply approaches to probabilities.
2. Apply probability essentials to calculate different event possibilities.
Approaches of Probability (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021; Walpole et
al., 1998)
1. Marginal Probability
2. Conditional Probability
3. Mutually Exclusive and Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
4. Dependent and Independent Events
Marginal Probability (Walpole, et al., 1998 )
Marginal Probability – is the probability of a single event without
consideration of any other event. Marginal probability is also called
Simple Probability.
Suppose a group of students are ask on their opinion about
online learning being part of regular teaching and learning modalities
during post pandemic. The following gives the distribution of the
responses.
In favor (I) Against (A) Total
Male (M) 10 11 21
Female (F) 16 13 29
Total 26 24 50
Marginal Probability
The following are examples of marginal probability:
In favor (I) Against (A) Total
Male (M) 10 11 21
Female (F) 16 13 29
Total 26 24 50

1. P(Male) = 21/50
2. P(In favor) = 26/50 or 13/25
3. P(Female) = 29/50
4. P(against) = 24/50 or 12/25
Conditional Probability (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021, Walpole, et al., 1998)
Conditional Probability – is the probability that an event will occur given that
another event has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then conditional
probability of A is written as P(A/B) and read as “ the probability of A given that
B has already occurred.” P(M/I) = P(M)
Example:
• The probability that a customer will make an online purchase conditional on
receiving an e-mail with a discount offer.
• The probability of making a 6-figure salary conditional on getting an MBA.
• The probability that sales will improve conditional on the firm launching a new
innovative product.
• The probability that an individual will shop online given that the individual is
female.
Conditional Probability (Walpole, et al., 1998 )
Suppose a group of students are asked on their opinion about online learning being part of regular teaching and
learning modalities during post pandemic. The following gives the distribution of the responses.

In favor (I) Against (A) Total

Male (M) 10 11 21
Female (F) 16 13 29
Total 26 24 50
Example 1:
1. What is the probability that from those of male students, the student selected is in favor online learning
during post pandemic?
2. What is the probability that from those of male students, the student selected is against online learning
during post pandemic?
3. Given that a student selected is In favor of online learning during post pandemic, find the probability that
the student is male.
4. Find the probability that the student selected is female on the condition that the student selected is In
favor online learning during post pandemic.
Conditional Probability
In favor (I) Against (A) Total
Male (M) 10 11 21
Female (F) 16 13 29
Total 26 24 50
2. What is the probability of selecting a student who is against online
learning during post pandemic, given that the student is female?
P(A/F) = 13/29 P(A and F)/ P(F) = 13/29
3. Among the males interviewed, determine the probability that he is in
favor of online learning during post pandemic. P(I/M) = 10/ 21
4. Given: P(A and F) = 0.26 P(A) = 0.48 ,
Find P(F/A) = P(A and F)/P(A) = 0.26/0.48 = 0.54
Conditional Probability
In favor (I) Against (A) Total
Male (M) 10 11 21
Female (F) 16 13 29
Total 26 24 50
4. What is the probability of selecting a female given that the student is
against online learning during post pandemic?
P(F/A) = 13/24
5. Of all those who are in favor of online learning during post pandemic,
find the probability that the student is male.
P(M/I) = 10/26 = 5/13
Conditional Probability Example (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)

Example 2:
Suppose the probability that a recent business college graduate finds
a suitable job is 0.80. The probability of finding a suitable job if the recent
business college graduate has prior work experience is 0.90.
If A represents finding a job and B represents prior work experience, then
P(A) = 0.80 and P(A/B) = 0.90. DE
In this example, the probability of finding a suitable job increases
from 0.80 to 0.90 when conditioned on prior work experience.
Conditional Probability Example (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)

Example 3:
The probability that a student will pass a major course 0.70, while
the probability that the same student will pass a major course is 0.85
given that he also pass an elective course.
If M represents passing the major course and E represents passing an
elective course, then P(M) = 0.70 and P(M/E) = 0.85. DE
In this example, the probability of passing a major course increases
from 0.70 to 0.85 when conditioned passing an elective course.
Conditional Probability Example (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)

Example 4:
The probability that a student will pass a major course 0.90, while
the probability that the same student will pass a major course is 0.75
given that he fail an elective course.
If M represents passing the major course and E’ represents not passing an
elective course, then P(M) = 0.90 and P(M/E’) = 0.75. DE
In this example, the probability of passing a major course decreases
from 0.90 to 0.75 when conditioned to failing an elective course.
Conditional Probability (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
• In general, the conditional probability P(A/B) is greater than the
unconditional probability (marginal probability) P(A), if B exerts positive
influence on A.
• Consequently, P(A/B) is less than P(A), if B exerts negative influence on
A.
• Finally, if B exerts no influence on A, then P(A/B) = P(A).
P(A) = 65%, P(A/B) = 65% IE
• It is common to refer to “unconditional probability” as “marginal
probability”, “simple probability”, or simply “probability”.
• Conditional probabilities of mutually exclusive events equals 0.
P(M/F) = 0 P(J/Q) = 0 P(H/L) = 0 P(P/F) = 0
Conditional Probability (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
We rely on the Venn diagram on the right
to explain conditional probability. Because
P(A/B) represents the probability of A
conditional on B (B has occurred), the original
sample space S is reduced to B. The conditional
probability P(A/B) is based on the portion of A
that is included in B. It is derived as the ratio of
the probability of the intersection of A and B to
the probability of B.
Conditional Probability (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
Dependent and Independent Events (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
Two events A and B are independent events if the occurrence of one event does not
affect the probability of the occurrence of the other event. That is, two events are
independent if either
P(A/B) = P(A) or P(B/A) = P(B)
Two events A and B are dependent events if the occurrence of one event affects the
probability of the occurrence of the other event. That is, two events are dependent if either
P(A/B) ≠ P(A) or P(B/A) ≠ P(B)
Example:
1. The probability of the event of drawing each of the two green balls (G1, G2) from a box of
2 green and 3 yellow balls;
a) with replacement of the first ball. b) without replacement of the first ball.
Answer: P(G1) = P (G1/G2) Answer: P(G1)  P (G1/G2)
2/5 = 2/5 2/5  1/4
⸫ Events G1 and G2 are independent ⸫ Events G1 and G2 are dependent
Definition:
Two events A and B are independent if and only if,
P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B).
Otherwise, A and B are dependent.
Therefore;
1. If one event does not affect the occurrence of another event, then it is an
Independent event.
2. If one event affects the occurrence of another event, then it is dependent
event.
3. Two events are independent if and only if the drawing is done with
replacement.
4. Two events are dependent if the first element is not replaced before the
second element is drawn.
Exercise:
Tell whether the following are dependent or independent events:
1. The operation of each of the pairs of escalator in a certain mall.
2. Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.
3. Drawing red card and a black card with replacement.
4. The life span of each of the love birds.
5. Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
6. If the mother and father is diabetic, offspring will also be diabetic.
7. Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as the second
card.
8. The event of getting 2 laptops when the first is replaced.
9. Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of the die.
Dependent and Independent Events Example:

1. Refer to the information on 50 students in the table below, determine

whether the following events dependent or independent?;
a) female (F) and in favor (I)
b) In favor (I) and female (F)
c) Against (A) and Male (M)
d) Male (M) and Against (A)
e) Against (A) and female (F)

In favor (I) Against (A) Total

Male (M) 10 11 21
Female (F) 16 13 29
Total 26 24 50
Answers: P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B) IE.
P(A/B) ≠ P(A) or P(B/A) ≠ P(B) DE
a. Female and In favor b. In favor and Female c. Against and Male d. Against and Female
P(F)  P(F / I) P(I)  P(I / F) P(A)  P(A / M ) P(A)  P(A / F)
29 16 26 16 24 11 24 13
   
50 26 50 29 50 21 50 29
29 8 13 16 12 11 12 13
   
50 13 25 29 25 21 25 29

In favor (I) Against (A) Total Each pair of the events are not
Male (M) 10 11 21 equal which means that the
events are dependent. This
Female (F) 16 13 29 indicates that the opinion of the
Total 26 24 50 students is dependent on gender.
Dependent and Independent Events Example:

2. An accounting firm was able to finish a total caseload of 50 financial reports

accomplished from two branches, Makati and Manila. Of them 30 were
accomplished in Makati. Of the total financial reports finished, 10 has
balancing errors. Of the 30 financial reports finished in Makati, 6 are has
balancing errors. Let E be the event that a randomly selected financial
reports has balancing errors and X be the event that a randomly selected
financial report was accomplished in Makati. Tell whether the following
events are dependent or independent? Interpret the result.
a) E and X b) E and Y c) B and X d) B and Y

Construct a contingency table to solve the problem.

Let Y = branch in Manila and B = balanced financial report.
Dependent and Independent Events Example:
Construct a contingency table to solve the problem
Let Y = branch in Manila and B = balanced financial report.
Balancing Errors (E) Balanced (B) Total
Makati (X) 6 24 30
Manila (Y) 4 16 20
Total 10 40 50

a. Error and Makati b. Error and Manila c. Balanced and Makati d. Balanced and Manila
P(E )  P(E / X) P(E )  P(E / Y) P(B)  P(B / X) P(B)  P(B / Y)
10 6 10 4 40 24 40 16
   
50 30 50 20 50 30 50 20
1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4
   
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Dependent and Independent Events Example:

Since the conditional and unconditional probabilities are

equal, 0.20 for Error and Makati and Error and Manila; and 0.10
for balanced and Makati and balanced and Manila, the
probability of any financial report to incur balancing errors is the
same, regardless of the branch where it was
balanced/accomplished. This means that the two branches are
producing the same proportion of errors in financial reporting.
The Complement Rule (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021, Albright & Winston 2013)

The Complement Rule – is the event that A does not occur. The sum of
probabilities assigned to simple events in a sample space must equal one.
Let A be the given event, the Ac (or A’) will denote the complement of A,
thus the P(A) + P(Ac ) = 1.

The Complement Rule is a simple, straightforward, powerful and widely

used probability formula.
Example of Complement Rule (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
Mutually and Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
Definition:
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint if
A  B = Ø, that is, if A and B have no elements in common.
Two events A and B are non-mutually exclusive, or joint
events if A  B = Ø’, that is, if A and B have elements in
common.
Tell whether the statement indicates MEE or NMEE:
1. Rolling a number less than 5 and a number greater than 3.
2. The event of passing English, Statistics or both.
3. Getting a total of 7 and 8 in one roll of two dice.
4. Obtaining a heart and spade in drawing a single card.
5. Beauty and brains.
6. Sending a single message to a globe and a smart user.
7. Choosing a weekday and choosing a weekend day.
8. Choosing a T or choosing a consonant.
9. Choosing a college student and over 15 years of age.
10. High demand and Low demand of school supplies on the same period.
The Addition Rule (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)

The Addition Rule – is the probability of the union of two events denoted
by P(A ꓴ B). If two events are mutually exclusive, then
P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B)
If two events are non-mutually exclusive, then
P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A Ո B) ,
• These formulas can also extend to more than 3 events:
P(A ꓴ B ꓴ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
P(A ꓴ B ꓴ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A Ո B) - P(A Ո C) - P(B Ո C) + P(A ꓴ B ꓴ C)
Example of the Addition Rule
A. Suppose an experiment is consisting of tossing a single die:
Then S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let the event A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {5, 6}, C = {2, 3, 4}
1. P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B) = 3/6 + 2/6 = 5/6
2. P(A ꓴ C) = P(A) + P(C) – P(A Ո C) = 3/6 + 3/6 – 2/6 = 4/6 or 2/3
3. P(B ꓴ C) = P(B) + P(C) – P(B Ո C) = 2/6 + 3/6 – 0 = 5/6
B. Suppose an experiment is consisting of tossing 2 coins:
Then S = {TT, TH, HT, HH} , X = 0, 1, 2
1. What is the probability of getting at least 1 head?
P(at least 1 head) = P(1 head) + P(2 heads) = 2/4 + ¼ = ¾, let the random variable = be the number
of heads, X = 1, 2
2. What is the probability of getting at most 2 heads?
P(at most 2 heads) = P(no heads) + P(1 head) + P(2 heads) = ¼ + 2/4 + ¼ = 1
Example of the Addition Rule
(Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
 The Multiplication Rule P(A and B) (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
The probability that events A and B can happen together is called the Joint
Probability of A and B.
The Joint Probability of A and B is the intersection of two events.
Multiplication Rule for Dependent Events:
P(A  B)  P(B / A) P(A) or P(B  A)  P(A / B) P(B)

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events:

P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)

The Multiplication Rule P(A and B) (Albright & Winston, 2013)

To illustrate Multiplication Rule:

• If X is the amount of rain in City A in March and Y is the
amount of rain in City A in June, it might be realistic to assume
that X and Y are independent. March weather doesn’t have
much effect on June weather.
• If X and Y are the changes in stock prices of two companies in
the same industry from one day to the next, it might not be
realistic to assume that X and Y are independent. The reason
is that they might both be subject to the same economic
influences.
Multiplication Rule (Jaggia & Kelly, 2021)
Multiplication Rule Examples:
1. A clothing manufacturer has two branches. The probability that branch A will be
successful is 0.73 and the probability that branch B is 0.60. Find the probability that
both branches will be successful? Assuming that the two branches are
independent.
P(A) = 0.73 P(B) = 0.60 P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B) = 0.73 * 0.60 = 0.438 or 43.8%

2. Suppose that 20% of personnel in a company has advanced studies. Of those

personnel which has advanced studies, 60% enrolled in a business program. Find
the probability that a personnel randomly selected has advanced studies and is
enrolled in a business program.
Let A = the event that a personnel has advanced studies.
B = the event that a personnel took a business program.
P(A) = 0.20, P(B/A) = 0.60 , NMEE and DE
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B/A)= (0.20)(0.60) = 0.12
Multiplication Rule Example:
3. The chief analyst of a bag manufacturing company is interested whether a
customer will purchase a shoulder bag and a hand bag. The probability that a
customer will purchase a shoulder bag is 0.12 and the probability that a customer
will purchase a hand bag is 0.16. What is the probability that a customer will
purchase both a shoulder bag and a hand bag?
P(A and B) = 0.12*0.16 = 0.0192 or 1.92%
 Multiplication Rule Example:
4. Two financial reports will be selected from 20 files of financial reports for the presentation of
the company monthly status to the BOD. Suppose 3 of those financial reports are not yet
balanced and assuming the first selected Financial report is not returned in the file, what is the
probability that
P(B) = 17/20, P(B’) = 3/20, DE P(A and B) = P(B/A)P(A)
a. the selected reports are balanced?
P(B1 and B2) = P(B1/B2)P(B2) =(16/19)(17/20) = 68/95 or 0.7159
b. the selected reports are unbalanced? (neither balanced)
P(B’1 and B’2) = P(B’1/B’2)P(B’2) = 2/19*3/20 = 0.1579
c. one is balanced and one is unbalanced?
P(B and B’) = P(B/B’)P(B’) = 17/19*3/20 = 0.1342 or 13.42%
5. Suppose 3 financial reports in number 4 will be selected, what is the probability that
a. the 3 financial reports selected are unbalanced?
P(B’1 and B’2 and B’3) = P(B’1) P(B’2/ B’1) P(B’3/ B’1 B’2) = 3/20*2/19*1/18= 0.0009
b. the first 2 are balanced and the third is unbalanced?
P(B1 and B2 and B’3) = P(B1) P(B2/ B1) P(B’3/ B1 B2) = 17/20*16/19*3/18 =0.1193
Exercise:
1. The table below shows the classification of all employees of a company by gender and by
employee status.
Tenured(T) Non-Tenured (N) Total
Female 6 12 18
Male 10 12 22
Total 16 24 40

If one of these employees is selected at random for membership on the employee management
committee, what is the probability that this employee is;
a. A female and tenured? P(F and T) =P(F)P(T/F) = 18/40* 6/18 = 6/40 0.15 or 15%
18/40 = 6/16 or 0.45 = 0.375
P(F) /= P(F/T) DE
b. A female and non-tenured? P(F and N)=P(F)*P(N/F)
c. A tenured on the condition he is male? P(T/M) = 10/22 = 0.45
d. A tenured or a male? P(T or M) = P(T) + P(M) – P(T and M) = 16/40 + 22/40 – 10/40 = 0.70
e. Not Male? P(Female) = 18/40 or P(F) = 1 – P(M) = 1- 22/40 = 18/40
2. The probability that a randomly selected employee has an international
certification is 0.35, and the joint probability that the employee is a
board passer and has an international certification is 0.25. Find the
conditional probability that the employee selected at random is a board
passer given that he/she has an international certification.
P(C) = 0.35, P(B and C) = 0.25 ; P(B/C) = P(B and C)/P(C) = 0.25/0.35 = 0.7143
3. An owner of a fine dining restaurant estimates that the probability that
his company application with CSR will be approved is 0.55; the
probability that the application with the DOH will be approved is 0.65,
and the probability that it will pass with both CSR and DOH is 0.45.
Determine the probability that the application with CSR will be approved
given that the application with DOH will also be approved.
P(CSR) = 0.55, P(DOH) = 0.65 , P(CSR and DOH) = 0.45
P(CSR/DOH) = P(CSR and DOH)/P(DOH) = 0.45/0.65 =0.6923
Reference
Business Analytics: Communicating with Numbers by Jaggia, S., Kelly,
A., Lertwachara, K. and Chen, L.
Copyright 2021 by McGraw-Hill Education.

Probability and Statistics by Walpole, R., Myers R., and Myers S.

Prentice Hall International, Inc., 1998.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7agTv9nA5k