Climate Change

Chapter 12
 Troposphere
• Where weather happens
• Location - surface to about 10 km.
• Composition - unpolluted air: Nitrogen (78%)
Oxygen (21%). Remaining 1% is CO2 (0.0365%),
H, He, Ar.
– Water vapor is an additional variable
amount, .01% to 5%.
 Stratosphere
• Where jets fly (at the bottom of it)
• Location - Above troposphere, about 10-50
km. Very thin air - virtually no weather, and no
turbulence.
• Composition- Similar to troposphere, except
– water vapor is 1000 x less
– ozone is 1000 x greater.
 Climate and Weather

• Climate = long-term atmospheric conditions

• Weather = short-term atmospheric conditions
• Both climate and weather are dynamic – they
change with time
The Greenhouse Effect
 Greenhouse gases
• Carbon Dioxide - fossil fuel burning, land
clearing/burning.
• Methane - Breakdown of organic material by
anaerobic bacteria.
• Nitrous Oxide - Biomass burning, automobile
exhaust.
• Ozone – automobile exhaust
• Chlorofluorocarbons - Refrigerants, cleaning
solvents, propellants.
CO2 measurements
 Evidence for Climate Change

1. 20th C was hottest in the past 1000 years

2. Global temp has risen 0.6°C (1.1°F) since 1861
3. 16 warmest years on record since 1980, 10
warmest since 1990
4. Glaciers and sea ice are melting
5. Sea level has risen 100-200 cm over 20th C
Projecting Future Changes in Earth’s Climate

We can’t do real experiments on the whole

earth’s climate, so how do we predict future
climate change?
• Scale up from small experiments
• Computer models (GCMs)
• Learn from the past
– Paleoclimatology and Paleoecology
(climatology)
Past Climate Changes
Some Possible Effects of a
Warmer World
 Solutions: Dealing with the Threat of Climate
Change
Options
• Do more research before acting –
“wait and see” (current US
strategy)
• Act now to reduce risks because
global warming would have severe
impacts
• Act now in same way to reduce
risks of global warming because it
has other benefits to environment
and society (even if warming
doesn’t happen)
Removing CO2 from the Atmosphere
 Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• 1988 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) established, body of scientists advising UN on
climate change
• 1997 - Representatives of 161 nations met in Kyoto,
Japan for a UN meeting on climate change
• Kyoto Protocol - agreement reached during meeting to
reduce CO2 emissions from 39 developed countries to
5.2% below 1990 levels by 2012.
• 2001 US pulled out of the agreement.
• Russia’s recent ratification was enough for the Kyoto
Protocol to take effect.
• Will there be a new post-Kyoto treaty?
 Ozone in the Stratosphere: the “Ozone hole”

• Ozone (O3) in the

stratosphere
protects life on the
surface of the earth
from harmful UV
solar radiation.
 CFCs
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and related
chemicals break down ozone in stratosphere
• Uses (mostly phased out)
• Air Conditioners
• Refrigerators
• Spray cans
• Cleaners for electronic parts
• Sterilizing medical instruments
• Fumigants for granaries and cargo ships
Seasonal Ozone Layer Thinning at the Poles

Credit: © Science VU/NASA/Visuals Unlimited

 Loss of the Ozone Layer: Reasons
for Concern
• Increased incidence and severity of sunburn
• Increase in eye cataracts
• Increased incidence of skin cancer
• Immune system suppression
• Increase in acid deposition
• Lower crop yields and decline in productivity
Skin Cancers
 Solutions: Protecting the Ozone Layer

• CFC substitutes
• Montreal Protocol 1987
• Copenhagen Protocol 1992
• both signed by 177 countries
• CFCs take 10-20 years to get to the
stratosphere
• CFCs take 65-385 years to break down
Future CFC concentrations
 Future climate predictions
• Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise
under all IPCC scenarios
• Temperature: +1.4 to +5.8 °C (between 1990 and 2100)
• Precipitation: general increase, but variable
• Extreme events: increases in variability and some extreme
events
• El Nino: little change/small increase in amplitude
• Monsoons: increase in Asian Monsoon summer precipitation
variability
• Snow and Ice cover: decreases, but Antarctica gains mass (W.
Antarctic Ice Sheet stable); Greenland loses ice.
• Sea level: +9 to +88 cm ; thermal expansion mainly
• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries