SUPPLY AND DEMAND

GAS INDONESIA

Indogas conferece
19 – 20 February 2019
 Indoensian Production and Consumption of Crude
Since 1966-2016
2017 © SKK Migas – All rights reserved

Sumber :
* Angka Produksi Minyak dari SKK Migas
** Angka Konsumsi Minyak dari BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
 The Need for Domestic Supply
Realisasi Pemanfaatan Gas Indonesia
We are seeing an average of 8% year-to-year increase of Domestic Supply proportion for the period of 2003 to 2017.
In 2018*, Domestic Supply grabs a handful of 59.9% proportion compared to the overall gas supply.

5,000
53% 56% 58% 58.6% 59.9%
4,397 4,416 4,336
4,500 4,202
4,008 4,078
3,820 3,882 3,997
4,000 3,775 3,774 3,880
3,681 3,631 3,632
3,995
3,500
3,550
3,323 3,379 3,402
3,000 3,267 3,237
3,090 2,736 2,669
BBTUD

2,913 2,860
2,500
2,527
2,341
2,000

1,500
1,480 1,466 1,513
1,000

500

-
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ekspor Domestik

Note:
*) Based on the Average Supply Realization Data of Desember 2018.
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 3
 Gas as Industrial Fuel: The Prospect

Indonesia’s 2018* Gas Utilization Profile Being the 2nd largest Gas utility
Domestic
LPG
Domestic LNG
6.03%
2.30% brings about

Power Sector
12.78% Higher efficient pace for industries.
Fertilizers Increasing industrial standards.
10.94%
LNG Exports
28.37% Larger opportunity for economic growth.
Industry More options for nature preservation
Exports Sector endeavors.
(Pipeline) 25.25%
11.33%
By having the above fact, combined with the
Transportation
0.14% Crude abundance of East Kalimantan Gas and
Liftings increased numbers of LNG facilities, Indonesia
2.81%
can see a leap of progress in Natural Gas
Household
Gas
utilization for powering its industries within
0.05% several years ahead.
Note:
*) Based on Desember 2018 Supply Realization data.
Methodology of Indonesia Gas Balance

Scenario Scenario Scenario

I II III
Based on GSPA / Based on GSPA / Base on GSPA /
Lifting Oil & Own Used
NGSPA NGSPA NGSPA
Government Program (City
5% 5% 5%
Gas + Fuel for Vehicle)

Fertilizer + Petrochemical Base on Plan Base on Plan Base on Plan

Base on 2017 Base on RUPTL Base on RUPTL
Electricity
Realization + 1.1% 2018 - 2027 2018 - 2027
Base on 2017
Industrial Retail Realisasi 2017 + 5.5% Kontrak + 5.5%
Realization + 1.1%
Based on GSPA /
Base on 2017 Based on GSPA /
Industri Non-Retail NGSPA
Realization + 1.1% NGSPA
+ Potential Demand
 Indonesia as an LNG Consumer
2,000.0

Indonesia 1,500.0

MMSCFD
1,000.0
Gas Balance 500.0

Overview -

(500.0)

(1,000.0)

(1,500.0)

(2,000.0)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
BALANCE REGION ACEH DAN SUMATERA BAGIAN UTARA 65.5 180.4 104.1 94.5 180.8 200.9 151.6 128.5 103.5 (3.0)
BALANCE REGION SUMSELTENG, JABAR DAN KEPRI (244.1) (201.4) (150.4) (265.8) (622.2) (679.0) (747.5) (1,106.6) (1,362.5) (661.0)
BALANCE REGION JAWA BAGIAN TENGAH (17.5) (65.1) (91.6) (85.6) (85.6) (88.2) (88.3) (88.4) (138.5) (138.7)
BALANCE REGION JAWA BAGIAN TIMUR 0.0 234.8 306.4 281.9 232.2 123.2 15.3 (91.6) (154.0) (195.6)
BALANCE REGION KALIMANTAN BAGIAN TIMUR 311.1 444.5 492.2 863.6 936.3 1,223.3 1,667.7 1,504.7 1,354.3 1,299.9
BALANCE REGION PAPUA, SULAWESI, MALUKU 19.8 (67.0) 2.9 228.4 123.2 (92.7) (153.7) (289.5) (216.8) (487.6)
TOTAL 134.9 526.1 663.6 1,117.0 764.8 687.5 845.0 57.0 (414.0) (185.9)

Proper for
LNG supplies

Based on the comparison between Indonesia’s Gas Balance and LNG Delivery Profile, it is
reasonable for Indonesia to absorb more LNG supplies from East Kalimantan and Papua
Requirement: more LNG infrastructure.
 Indonesia Gas Balance 2018 - 2027

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000
MMSCFD

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

-
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Skenario 1 Skenario 2 Skenario 3
Exisiting Supply Project Supply Potential Supply
 Indonesia as an LNG Consumer
(Continued)
2017 & 2018 LNG Delivery
Domestic LNG Distribution in 2017 and 2018 100%
Power Sector (MMBTU) Industry (MMBTU) 90%
80%
0.03% 0.79% 0.00%
0.21% 70%
60% 84% 83% 82% 83%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 16% 17% 18% 17%
0%
2017 Bontang 2017 Tangguh 2018 Bontang 2018 Tangguh

99.97% 99.79% 100.00% Domestic (MMBTU) Export (MMBTU)

99.21%

Based on the comparison between

Indonesia’s LNG Delivery Profile and LNG
Domestic Sectors Distribution, we can see
that the small portion of the Domestic LNG
is mostly consumed for Power Generation
with only a much smaller part for other
sectors.
2017 Bontang 2017 Tangguh 2018 Bontang 2018 Tangguh
 Indonesia’s Upstream Gas Main Projects
Peak Productions to Achieve from Major Projects In terms of potentials, Indonesia is currently striving
(in MMSCFD) to achieve higher level of gas production by
1200
968 966 encouraging the completion of 9 major gas projects.
1000 835
800 MARAKES IDD
600 517 Onstream 2023: Onstream Gendalo Hub 2023, Gehem Hub 2024
Peak Prod 314 MMSCFD (2023) Gendalo Hub: 576 MMSCFD, Peak Prod.
400 Gehem Hub : 392 MMSCFD, Peak Prod.
167
200
0 SENORO PHASE - 2
2021 2023 2024 2025 2030 Onstream 2023:
Peak Prod 95 MMSCFD

ACEH TANGGUH TRAIN-3

SUMATERA Produksi (2020):
UTARA KEP. RIAU Peak Prod. 543 MMSCFD (2021)

SUMATERA
JAMBU AYE UTARA
TENGAH KALIMANTAN
KALIMANTA
PAPUA
Production (2022): TIMUR
N TIMUR
BARAT
Peak Prod. 108 MMSCFD (2023) SUMATERA
SELATAN
ASAP MERAH KIDO (AMK)
Peak JAWA MALUKU
Projects Peaking TIMUR Onstream 2023
Year Production JAWA Peak Prod. 167 MMSCFD (2024)
in Production BARAT
(in MMSCFD)
JTB,
2021 MDA & MBH, 835 JAMBARAN TIUNG BIRU MDA dan MBH ABADI
Tangguh Train 3 Onstream 2020: Onstream 2020 Onstream 2027:
Peak Prod. 172 MMSCFD (2021) Puncak Prod 120 MMSCFD Peak Prod. 966 MMSCFD (2030)
(2021)
Jambu Aye Utara,
2023 Merakes, 517
Senoro (Phase 2)

2024 Asap Merah Kido 167

2025 IDD 968

2030 Abadi 966

 Idle Fields Potential – Reserves Waiting for Development
Stranded Gas in Indonesia

SOUTH SEMBAKUG
Onstream 2020 : SOUTH SEBUKU
Q : 22 – 30 BBTUD (12 tahun)
Onstream 2014:
JAMBU AYE UTARA Accum. Prod (6.26 BCF)
Onstream 2022:
Accum. Prod. 166.07 BCF BADIK & WEST BADIK -
Accum. Prod. 3.64 MMBBL Nunukan
Lap. Anggor –Secanggang –
WK Gebang Onstream 2021:
Lapangan Gas Accum. Prod. 208.05 BCF
Peusangan B - Zaratex Onstream 2023: Accum. Prod. 4.59 MMBBL
Onstream 2023: Q = 40 BBTUD (12 Tahun)
Accum. Prod. 30 BCF TUTUNG
ACEH
Onstream 2018:
Gelam Blok A, B, C, D dan
SUMATERA
Accum. Prod (2.39 MMBBL + 41.57 BCF)
Sengeti - PEP
UTARA KEP. RIAU
Onstream 2019:
Q . 3 – 6 BBTUD (5 – 12 tahun)
SUMATERA
TENGAH KALIMANTAN
TIMUR PAPUA
MALUK BARAT
PEP Area Jambi
SUMATERA U
Potential Vol.: 2 - 44.4 MMSCFD SELATAN

SOUTH RAWA KERI

JAWA Proyek Minyak
OGIP: 41 BCF BARAT JAWA
TIMUR Proyek Gas
SP
OGIP: 71.1 BCF
LENGO LAMARU
KLD
= Un-monetized POD Onstream 2017: OGIP: 1.48 BCF
(Total Gas = 609.25 BCF + 10.62 MMBBL) OGIP: 46.96 BCF Accum. Prod (187.3 BCF)
TAWES
= Idle Field
(Total Gas = 611.37 BCF) OGIP: 23 BCF
 INFRASTRUKTUR LNG/LPG INDONESIA

THAILAND LAOS Manila

Bangkok
CAMBODIA Philipines
LNG Receiving Terminal
Ban
Mabtapud
Phnom South Existing Pipeline
VIETNAM
Penh
Ho Chi Planned Pipeline
Minh City
China
LNG Plant
Khanon Erawan
Arun – Sea
Regasification Planned LNG
Songkhla Bangkot
Plant – 3 MTPA Receiving Terminal
Pertamina Lawi LNG Plant Badak
t Jerneh
NATUNA 11,2MTPA
LNG ARUNPenang Guntong (PLAN) Kota
Banda Aceh BRUNEI Kinibalu
Alpha
West Natuna
Lhokseumawe
WEST Kerteh Duyong Bandara Seri LNG Plant Donggi
Mogpu Natuna
MALAYSI
A Begawan Senoro - 2 MTPA
Kuala Bintu
Port Klang
Medan Lumpur EASTlu
Port Petrogas,
Dickson
MALAYSIA LNG & LPG BADAK (HULU) LPGPacific Ocean
Plant (Arar)
Dumai Manado
Production 4.000 MT/year
PetroChina Jabung SINGAPORE Kuchi
Ternate
ng HALMAHERA
LPG Plant (Jabung) Duri Batam Bintan
Bontang LNG Plant
Production 500.000 & Export Terminal
Attaka
MT/year Padang KALIMANTAN Samarinda Tunu
Balikpapan
Bekapai Sorong
Jambi
SULAWESI Jayapur
FSRU Nusantara Regas a
PEP - SUMSEL Grissik Palembang 3,8 MTPA
Banjarmasin LNG SENORO MATINDOK (HILIR)
LPG Production 23.000 Pertamina BURU IRIAN JAYA
SERAM
MT/year
FRU/FSU Benoa
Ujung 0,3 MTPA
Pelindo III
Pandang LNG Plant Tangguh
Ardjuna
Fields Train 1 & 2
FSRU Lampung
1,8 MTPA
Jakarta Cirebon Semarang MADURA
Bangkalan
I Pagerungan
N D O N E S I A 7,8 MTPA
J A V A Surabaya
PGN SUMBAWA FLORES Maluku Selatan Merauk
LOMBOK e
BALI
Indian Ocean
PEP - JABAR
LPG Production 6.000
SAKA Energi
LPG Production 55.000
SUMBA
TIMOR LNG MASELA (HULU)
MT/year MT/year (PLAN)
 Gas Market Regulation

GOI Programs Minister for ESDM Regulation No. 58 / 2017

Applicable for
Industrial Consumers
Ministry ESDM Regulation

Crude Lifting
Downstream Price =
No. 06 / 2016

Upstream Price + Infrastructure Maintenance + Commercial

Fertilizers
Cost

Power Sector Infrastructure Maintenance =

(Asset Depreciation + Opex & Maintenance + Taxes + IRR)
Gas-based
Industries Volume

Gas-fueled
Industries Where…

By capping the maximum

Commercial Cost and IRR, Maximum
Downstream Prices can Commercial Cost is For Market Pioneer, For Existing Market,
be controlled. limited to 7% of the IRR max 12% IRR max 11%
Upstream Price
 Natural Gas Role in Power Sector
Cheap
Minister for ESDM Regulation No. 45 / 2017
Coal Based Lower Efficiency
Provides support
Environmentally
Harmful
Power
Generation
Higher Price Upstream Ceiling Price can be set as high as only 8% of ICP
Higher
with several conditions:
Gas Based
Efficiency
1. Gas selling arrangement is through wellhead point
Less Harmful scheme,
2. Natural gas is allocated to PLN,
3. Power is produced by private producers, and
The Government’s 4. PLN to direct-appoint private power producers.
awareness of how
important regulation is for
promoting Natural Gas in
Power sector is shown by
the Ministry for ESDM Implications
Regulation No. 45/2017 &
Ministry ESDM Decree
No.1790/2018
Reduced Gas Better Promoting Eco-
Price Efficiency Friendly Energy
 Gas Infrastructure: The Regulation’s Role
Ministry for ESDM
Regualtion No. 58 /
2017

Regulated IRR for both

Regulated Economic
Pioneer and Existing Regulated Gas Volume
Lifespan
Markets

Integrated Distribution As allocated by the

For Pioneer Market: Pipes: Minister for ESDM or
12% top 15 years since on 60% of initial capacity,
stream date whichever is higher.

Non Integrated
Distribution Pipe:
By having a fully regulated
For Existing Market:
11% top goes according to
environment, gas
Allocation lifespan. infrastructure will have
better chances in increasing
its expansion and roles.
 What to do next?
• Increasing the capacity, capability, and reliability of the
upstream gas supply, especially for supply continuity,
• Maintaining gas supply for existing demands,
• Diversifying LNG usage, especially for absorption by Industry
sector,
• Increasing the connectivity of transmission pipeline network
facilities and gas distribution,
• Clustering the upstream gas sources to create new demands,
especially for new petrochemicals and power plants,
• Harnessing certain gas processing technologies (Mini / Nano
Liquefaction) by the upstream element to develop stranded
and marginal fields,
• Developing LNG Receiving Units in areas with gas shortages.
THANK YOU