Start-up's Obstacles

Did you compare your idea with the cemetery of similar dead ideas?

Use Google to search for similar ideas start-ups that failed.

Is your product capable of attracting people from only one group, or is it easy to scale?

Depending on response, state your expectations.

If your idea is related to any pattern that you spotted in human behaviour, did you careful examine
the pattern cause, i.e. can it be considered pure chance?

Does your product or service addresses need of rarely spotted events that might look not
important to wide number of people, or it might be categorised as pure coincident, thus foolish?

Are you in the middle of some idea, and you realise that your product has strong weaknesses or
threads, which cannot be repaired? If the answer is yes, you should stop.

Did you design your sales tactic so that you firstly take, and then give the product?

If the answer is yes, you should revert scenario. You should firstly give, and then take (e.g. 15-day
trial).

When thinking about your idea, do you think your idea tends to interpret, favour, or recall
information in a way that confirms or strengthens your desired outcomes, or beliefs?

If the answer is yes, select one person, and nominate it as devil's advocate. While all other members
of the team may speak in favour of product's success, devil's advocate should do the opposite, i.e.
find all possible weaknesses, and threads, especially when it comes to unpredictable events (which
are not yet visible, or do not yet exist).

The devil's advocate should write our beliefs, whether in terms of world views, investments,
marriage, diet, career, business strategies', and set out to find disconfirming evidence.
When doing SWOT analysis of your product, did you consult only one expert in the field of
expertise related to your product?

If the answer is yes, you should double check it at least with one more expert. You might be surprised
with entirely opposite responses. Challenge authority.

When doing SWOT analysis of your product, did you determine the basic areas of expertise (e.g.
sales, marketing, IT), and areas specific to your product (e.g. psychology, design etc)?

When presenting your product did you consider using the contrast effect (e.g. putting something
beautiful next to your product on the product page)?

When judging about different aspects, or parts of your products/service, did you ask yourself if you
are excedurating (overrating or underestimated – can be caused due to lack of your experience)?

If you did, consider rethinking overrated or underestimated aspects, or parts again.

Think quantitively, not dramatically. Don't try to fool yourself.

Did you conclude that your product, if already launched, and not making any serious success, will
improve overtime without any change?

If you answer yes, think again. That will not happen.

If your product is beneficial to the community, did you consider focusing on items benefits, while
advertising, or showing the product on the product page?

If your product is not so beneficial to the community, did you consider creating a story of it, by
putting benefits into much nicer context?

Did you base your product on a forecast?

You shouldn't be doing that. Forecasts are illusions. We shouldn’t trust them.

Try to think your worst scenario?

If you didn't, you should.

Did you maybe overestimate your knowledge, and abilities?

Think about your worst scenario.

Is your product out of scope of your (or your co-founder) circle-of-competence?

If it is, make sure you investigate the matter by interviewing competent people (experts and/or
users).

Do you think that your product can influence something over which you have absolutely no sway?

You should focus on a few things of importance that you can influence.

Did you judge your decision purely by the result, not taking into account randomness, and external
factors?

A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, and vice-versa.

Before we applaud ourselves to decision that just accidently led to success, remember we chose
what we did. Were our reasons rational, and understandable. Then we will do well to stick to that
method.

Does the product page have many options to choose from?

Always reduce the number of options to only few, so it is easy to choose from.

People can never make a perfect decision if they are presented with a lot of options.

Did you make buyers think you are like them, even if that means outright flattery?

If not, you should do that. The product page shouldn't enumerate only features, and benefits.

Did you implement, and enabled every feature, you could think of for your product?

If yes, consider disabling some features, so you are ready to launch them, as soon as you'll need to
fight competition.

Don't cling to things. Consider your property that you have received from God, and that it can be
taken any time from you.

Is your product idea the result of group thinking?

You should consider appointing someone as a "devil’s advocate", and rethink the whole idea.

Does usage of your product offer zero-risk for the user?

Any risk causes users to avoid the product.

Did you consider using "shortage supply", or "last-minute" for the marketing purposes?

You should, as that makes users decide quickly, and easily.

What are your scale expectations?

Did you calculate your potential user base, possible income, needed stuff to enable your business to
service customers? Did you overestimate the figures? Can it be profitable? Will it be able to scale?

When estimating, do not use your intuition. Instead, use reasoning. Gather needed data from a
different source, and use the calculator, or spreadsheets.

Don't allow wheel of fortune to make your head spin. It can move your way of thinking from
reasoning to emotions, which can make your business fail.

Did you incline to draw universal certainty from individual observations, and following that got the
idea for the product?

Nothing is certain, but death, and taxes (Benjamin Franklin).

When advertising your product, do you focus on advantages, or you're highlighting how your
product helps dodge disadvantages?

The fear of losing something motivates people more than prospect of gaining something equal value.
Thus, highlighting how your product helps dodge disadvantages.

Did you try to simplify problems, and events, and/or excluded external factors?

Try to understand the problem, and events thoroughly, and what factors caused them.

Did you misunderstand causality, and following that made you get the idea for the business?

Correlation is not causality. Take a close look at the link of events. Sometimes what is presented as a
cause turns out to be the effect, and vice-versa. Sometimes it appears there is no link at all. Just like
the stocks and babies.

Did you use the outlined a beautiful thing, or person, social status, or age in the marketing
purposes?

The hello effect works on subconscious level. All that needs to register is attractive face, dream
lifestyle, and that product.
Did you identify, and address the risks by choosing alternative path?

Always consider the alternative paths.

Our brain will do anything to convince us that our success is warranted no matter how risky our
dealings are, and will obscure any thought of paths, other that we are on.

Did you put details in your product story, and does the story contains the context?

People want to get details to the story so they can follow that path.

It’s not only important what you say, but how you say it.

Does the process from choosing to purchasing has too much steps?

You should reduce the number of steps.

Did you base your product on series of fortunate events?

Never rely on first success, it needs to repeat for a long period of time, to be sure it is driven by
reasoning, and people expectation, not by luck.

Did you selected the wrong option, and try to fool yourself that it is a better option, because the
better option was harder to implement?

Did you try to have start-up meetings early in the morning, and other times when the level of sugar
in peoples' blood is not low?

You should be doing that, as we are not so impatient, and can make smarter decisions, as opposed to
when we are hungry, or tired.

Did you miss opportunities to use the word because?

Use word "because" unconstrainedly, especially when it is possible that your customers feels anger,
or unpleasant, as it tends to calm them down.

Also, put smiley face next to "bad" image.

Did you try to create a positive relation between your potential customer, and your product?
Did you calculate the average excluding the extremes?

The average can look a lot different when the extremes are excluded. Use that method instead.

The extremes are especially important to exclude when the sample is small. Otherwise it makes the
average absurd.

Is your idea the product of your illusion of knowledge, or ignorance?

Both are very dangerous. You need to have true knowledge (circle-of-competence), or get it from the
experts, or the users.

Are your expectations high?

Lower the expectations for the things you cannot control. The best way to shield yourself from nasty
surprises is to anticipate them.

Expectations change the chemistry of the brain, and thus the whole body. They have the power to
change the reality.

Did you use the intuition to create your business?

Intuition should be used only for getting the idea, after that the reasoning should take place, with a
lot of investigation, and calculation.

• Start by greeting even the simplest logical questions with incredulity

• Not everything that seems plausible is true
• Reject the easy answers that pop into your head

Do you accept only information which correspond to your thinking, and filtering everything else
out?

This is the mother of all evils. It leads you to a disaster.

Did your idea pass external observations, or it is a product of your internal observations?

Introspection illusion creates inaccurate prediction of future mental states. Trust your internal
observations too much, and too long, and you might be in for very rude awakening.

We believe that or introspections are more reliable than those of others, which creates an illusion of
superiority.

Be more critical to yourself. Regard your internal observation with scepticism as claim from some
random person. Become your own toughest critic.
Do you tend to have a couple of options available?

We tend to have a couple of options available, even though such behaviour is holding us back, as we
cannot consume all options, and choose the best path.

This irrational behaviour is not always apparent.

We must learn to close doors.

Most doors are not worth going through, even when the handle seems to turn so effortlessly.

Is your product a new technology?

Old technology has proven itself, because it possesses coherent logic, even though we sometimes
don't understand it.

We shouldn't underestimate the role of traditional technologies.

New gadgets don't last long.

Did you consider using the propaganda?

Amazingly, the influence of propaganda increases over time. In our memories the source of the
argument fades faster than the argument itself. In other words, our brain quickly forgets where the
information came from, but message fades slowly, or even endures.

Any information that comes from the untrusted source gains credibility over time.

Did you compare your product with all best alternatives?

We systematically forget to compare the existing offer with the best alternatives.

Did you ignore the opinions of the youngest members of the team, in favour of older, more
experienced members?

Don't ignore them. You could only profit from their contributions.

Did you use the proper ordering in the statements, on your product page, or in advertisements?

When you expect decision, mention most important things first.

When you talk about the past, mention most important things last.
Are you sure your idea is great?

We are drunk on our own ideas. To sober up, take the step back to examine their quality and
hindsight.

Which of our ideas from the past 10 years were truly outstanding?

Did you think about unpredictable events that could put you out of business?

It is unthinkable event that messes up your carrier, your company, your country.

There are positive and negative black swans, but it conforms to above statement.

There are things we know, and we don’t know, but also the things we don't know that we don't
know.

Are you sure that people will find your product useful (they will thing the same way as you do)?

Our brain is not built to recognise the truth. Instead its goal is to leave behind as many offspring as
possible.

Did you address group thinking pitfall?

Members of one group find each other agreeable than member of other groups

We perceive people outside your own group to be more similar than they actually are (out-group
homogeneity bias).

Since group often form on the basis of common values, group members receive disproportion of
support for their own views. This distortion is dangerous, especially in business. It leads to the
infinus, organisational blindness.

Do you understand the difference between risk, and uncertainty?

Risk means that probabilities are known.

Uncertainty means that probabilities are unknown.

We can make calculation with risks, but not with uncertainty.

For risks we use statistics, but there is nothing that helps us deal with uncertainty.

Did you consider suggesting the standard options on the product page?

Most people cling to the standard options, i.e. many opt for the default, even if that puts us in
disadvantage. By changing default setting, we can change the human behaviour.

We tend to be highly conservative when it comes to customising the options.

Losses upset us twice as much as similar gains please us.

Did you consider pointing out most prominent features, a particularity that catches customer's
eye?

Outstanding features receive much more attention than they deserve.

Do you season product's tales with names, and faces?

This is what motivates people. You should be doing so.

Do you think out of the box (box is your product)?

Shift your focus from internal things, such as your own project to external factors – like similar
projects.

Look at the base rate, and consult the past. If other ventures of the same type lasted three years, and
spend 5 million dollars, this will probably apply your project too, no matter how careful you plan

Shortly before decisions are made, perform so called premortal session – literally, before death.
Imagine it is a year from today, and we have followed the plan to the letter. The result is the disaster.
Take 5-10 minutes to write about this disaster. The story will show you what things might turn out.

Did you use interdisciplinary approach?

If you ask someone to cracks particular problem, they usually link it to their own area of expertise.

That's is the problem, as they may try to apply their knowledge in areas where they don't belong.

• Locate your shortcomings

• Find suitable knowledge, and methodology to balance them

Do you write down the solution of particular problem, as soon as you find it?

Outstanding tasks noir at us, only until we have a clear idea of how we will deal with them. We forget
them shortly afterwards.

If we want peace of mind, a detailed plan must be divided into step-by-step tasks, and preferably
written down. Only when this is done, your mind rest. The adjective detail is important.

The more detailed our planning, the more we tend to overlook factors from the periphery, that will
derail our project.

If we want the most accurate estimate on cost, benefit, and duration of project, we need to look up
similar projects.
Do you find yourself lucky with the product idea you have?

Luck plays a bigger role, than skill does. Skill is necessary, but not sufficient.

When a person is successful for a long time, more than that, when they enjoy more success in the
long run compared to less qualified people, then, and only then is talent the essential element.

Do you give tend to use the checklists?

Absence is much harder to detect, than presence.

We place greater emphasis on what is present, than on what is absent.

If we constantly think about absence, we would be much happier, but it is a tough mental work.

Checklists do not contain non-spotted, i.e. absent things.

Do you think, you might have forgotten something?

- Ask about left-over cherries, the failed projects, the missed goals.

- You'll learn a lot more from this, than from successes.

- Instead of employing a horde of financial controllers, to calculate costs, double check targets.

Is your product idea the result of single cause fallacy?

Investigating the cause:

1. You know there will never be sole single factor. Take a sheet of paper, and sketch all
potential reasons. Do the same for the reasons behind these reasons. After a while, you will
have a network of influencing factors
2. Highlight those, you can change, and delete those, you cannot – such as human nature
3. Conduct empirical test by varying highlighted factors in different markets. This costs time and
money, but it is the only way to swamp of superficial assumptions.
Epilogue

• Eliminate all errors, and better thinking will follow.

• Eliminate the downsides of the thinking errors, and upsides will take care of itself.
• Do not try to solve difficult problems, try to avoid them.
• Sometimes emotions overpower logic. Beware of that.
• Cold theory of irrationality:
• Thinking is in itself not pure, but prone to error. This affects everyone, even high-intelligent
people.
• Our brain is designed to reproduce, rather than search for the truth. We use our thoughts
primarily to persuade. Whoever convinces others, secures power, and thus access to
resources.
• Intuitive decisions, even if they lack logic, are better under certain circumstances. For many
decisions, we lack the necessary information, so we are forced to use mental shortcuts, and
rules of thumb – heuristics.
• If the potential harm is small or the problems are in your circle of competence, don't rack
your brains with thinking, use heuristics (intuition).