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CPS 297.49 317.61 445.38 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Cash CHECK - - - Error Error Error
CEPS 99.8 109.3 100.7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Balance CHECK - - - Error Error Error
Du Pont Analysis
(%) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Tax burden (Net income/PBT) 74.7 70.8 71.7 - - -
Interest burden (PBT/EBIT) 105.8 124.0 129.7 - - -
EBIT margin (EBIT/Revenues) 18.0 19.8 18.9 - - -
Asset Turnover (Revenues/Avg TA 144.0 146.2 126.4 - - -
Leverage (Avg TA/Avg equtiy) 147.9 134.5 131.4 - - -
Return on equity (%) 30.3 34.2 29.2 - - -
Discounted cash flow analysis, FY 2018- FY
2025
(All figures in Rs mn, unless specified) FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Key financial data
Volumes ('000) 4,094
% YoY 12.5
Avg. realisation 33,068
% YoY (44.7)
Revenues 135,384 - - -
EBITDA 133,321
EBITDA margin 98.5%
Gross Block -
Capex -
Depreciation and amortization -
EBIT 133,321
Tax Rate 33%
Free cash flow (FCF) analysis
NOPLAT 89,325
Depreciation and amortization - - - -
Change in working capital (677)
Capex - - - -
FCF 88,648 - - -
Discount factor 1.00
PV of FCF 88,648 - - -
Terminal Growth Rate
WACC
Assumptio
Terminal cash flow calculation
ns
Terminal Growth Rate Assumption here Debt Premium
Continuing Value - Last FCF - Debt in FY 2012
FCF - Next Year Formula here share price - Rs
Terminal Value Formula here No. Shares (mn)
Discounted Terminal Value Formula here Market cap - Rs mn
Total Equity Rs mn
Calculation here
- - - - From above
Assumption with Calculation here
- - - - From above
- - - -
Calculation here
- - - -
4.0%
0.0% Coming from below
75%
rowth Rate
4.5% 5.0%
1,744 1,795
1,850 1,910
1,971 2,044
2,112 2,201
2,276 2,386
Bajaj Auto
Financial Ratios Analysis
FYE Mar, in Rs millions
Common-sized P&L
% Assets 100.0%
% Current assets 18.8%
% Current assets - Cash 15.9%
% Net fixed assets 10.9%
% Net intangible assets --
% Investments 71.3%
% Other assets (1.0%)
Growth Ratios
Profit Margins
Return Ratios
Leverage Ratios
x Debt/Assets 0.0x
x Long-term debt/Assets 0.0x
x Debt/Capital 0.0x
x Long-term debt/Long-term funds 0.0x
x Debt/Equity 0.0x
x Debt/Tangible equity 0.0x
x Gross financial leverage 1.3x
x Adjusted Debt/Equity 0.0x
x Adjusted Debt/Tangible equity 0.0x
Liquidity Ratios
Turnover Ratios
Earnings Quality
Du Pont Analysis
Rs mn Sales 217,667
Effect on Cash
Rs mn Of growth (1,950)
Rs mn Of profitability and effeciency (3,072)
Rs mn Total (5,022)
FY20E
FY19E scenario analysis Base Bull Bear
Net sales 138,501 Calculation here
Sales growth (%) 2.3 Assumption here
Volume growth (%) (0.7) Assumption here
ASP (%) 3.0 Assumption here
EBITDA 138,501 Calculation here
EBITDA % 100.0 Assumption here
APAT 138,501 Calculation here
EPS 0.0 Calculation here
+ Net revenues 225,865 217,667 135,384 138,501 157,796 Flowing From below (Row No. 75)
- Cost of revenues 150,569 146,242 -- -- -- Flowing From below (Row No. 84)
Gross profit 75,297 71,425 135,384 138,501 157,796
Operating expenses
- Employee expenses 9,171 9,971 -- -- -- Flowing From below (Row No. 90)
- SG&A expenses 18,306 17,231 2,063 -- -- Flowing From below (Row No. 109)
EBITDA 47,819 44,224 133,321 138,501 157,796
21.2% 20.3% 98.5% 100.0% 100.0%
- Depreciation 3,072 3,073 -- -- -- Flowing From below (Row No. 159)
- Amortisation
EBIT 44,748 41,151 133,321 138,501 157,796
- Income taxes 16,177 15,081 -- -- -- Flowing From below (Row No. 173)
+ Extraordinary items
Reported net profit 39,296.7 38,275.6 133,321 138,501 157,796
- Adjustments -- -- -- -- --
- Non-recurring items, if any
Adjusted net profit 39,297 38,276 133,321 138,501 157,796
1.28 0.97 3.48 1.04 1.14
90)
109)
159)
131)
143)
173)
Diluted -- --
At end of year 289 289 Put details of No.of shares here
Weighted avg during yea 289 289 Put details of No.of shares here
Dividend Details
Dividend on preference shar
Dividend on equity shares 15,915 18,809 -- -- -- Formula here
Dividend per share 55 65 Assumptions here
Tax on dividend 2,706 3,198 Formula here
18,621 22,006 -- -- --
% Payout 47 57 -- -- --
Net Revenues
+ Sale of manufactured goods 235,462 218,513 131,048 133,865 152,826 Flowing from model wise Sales Tab
- Excise duty 12,935
+ Export Incentive
+ Sale from scraps
+ Income from services
+ Other operating revenues 4,348 4,063 4,336 4,637 4,970 Flowing from model wise Sales Tab
% of exports 4.4% 5.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Net revenues 226,876 222,576 135,384 138,501 157,796 Flowing to the Main Inc Sheet (Row No.
5.0 (1.9) (39.2) 2.3 13.9
To TOP
Cost of Revenues
Tab
(Row No. 9)
SG&A Expenses
% of net sales
Sales/Discounts/Incentives/ 0.6 0.5 Assumptions here
Advertising 1.8 1.5 Assumptions here
Packing/forwarding 1.8 1.4 Assumptions here
Stores & Tools 0.6 0.6 Assumptions here
Power & Fuel 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Assumptions here
% YoY
Repairs -1.6% 5.0% Assumptions here
Vehicle service charge 16.8% 5.0% Assumptions here
Other administrative expen 24.0% 5.0% Assumptions here
Interest expenses
Depreciation
To TOP
Income Taxes
+ Current taxes 16,177 15,081 Calculation here Flowing to the Main Inc Sh
Income taxes 16,177 15,081 -- -- --
To TOP
(Row No. 28)
Modelwise Schedule
Vehicle units 3,665,871 4,094,089 4,188,176 4,710,304
Platina/CT100 836,257 894,795 957,431 1,005,302 Formula here
% YoY
Platina/CT100 -3.4% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% Assumptions he
Discover/Boxer/XCD/V 40.3% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% Assumptions he
Pulsar/KTM/Avenger/Ninja 4.5% 15.0% 16.0% 16.0% Assumptions he
Dom two wheelers 5.4% 11.2% -7.1% 10.9%
Domestic 3 Wheelers -0.7% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% Assumptions he
Domestic Quadricycles #DIV/0!
Total Domestic 4.7% 11.6% -5.7% 10.5%
Exports - 2 wheelers -16.5% 12.0% 15.0% 15.0% Assumptions he
Exports - three wheelers -31.7% 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% Assumptions he
Exports - Quadricycles 365.9%
Total exports -18.9% 11.9% 15.0% 15.0%
Total Volumes -5.8% 11.7% 2.3% 12.5%
Average realizations
Platina/CT100 29,455 30,044 30,645 31,258 Formula here
Discover/Boxer/XCD/V 35,938 36,657 37,390 38,138 Formula here
Pulsar/KTM/Avenger/Ninja 69,808 71,204 72,628 74,081 Formula here
Avg Dom two wheelers 47,294 - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Formula here
Three wheelers 99,774 101,769 103,805 105,881 Formula here
Quadricycles 137,714 140,468 143,277 146,143 Formula here
Domestic realisation 53,186 55,136 59,710 61,675
Avg. realisation - Exports (INR) 58,116 Formula here for conversion to IN
Avg. realisation - Exports (USD) 864 Formula here
Total exports (USD)% YoY 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Assumptions here
Total 55,084 33,872 33,823 34,333
% YoY
Platina/CT100 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Assumptions here
Discover/Boxer/XCD/V 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Assumptions here
Pulsar/KTM/Avenger/Ninja 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Assumptions here
Avg Dom two wheelers 2.3% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Three wheelers 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Assumptions here
Quadricycles 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Assumptions here
Avg Domestic 1.8% 3.7% 8.3% 3.3%
Exports 3.5% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 2.0% -38.5% -0.1% 1.5%
Sales Schedule
Gross Sales 231,160 138,675 141,656 161,720
Vehicles 201,932 138,675 141,656 161,720
YoY -3.9% -31.3% 2.1% 14.2%
Spares 29,228 Formula here
YoY 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% Assumptions here
Excise (Adj for PantNagar Benefit) 12,647 7,627 7,791 8,895 Formula here
excise rate
% of gross Sale 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Assumptions here
Net Sales ### ### ### 152,826 Flowing to the Inc Sh
YoY -1.8% -40.0% 2.1% 14.2%
ssumptions here
ssumptions here
ssumptions here
ssumptions here
ssumptions here
ssumptions here
ssumptions here
ssumptions here
Flowing to the Inc Sheet (Row No. 68)
To TOP 12 11
Loans and Advances
To TOP
Cash & Cash Equivalents
To TOP
Net Fixed Assets
To TOP
Miscellaneous Expenditure
+ Opening balance
+ Added during the year
- Amortised during the year
Closing balance -- -- --
Miscellaneous expenditure -- -- --
To TOP
Current Liabilities
To TOP Creditors 42 38
Provisions
To TOP
Long Term Debt
+ Non-convertible debentures
+ Convertible debt
+ Term loans
+ Fixed deposits
+ Other debts 1,625 1,625
Long-term debt 1,625 1,625 --
To TOP
Short Term Debt
+ Cash credit -- -- --
+ Working capital loans
+ Term loans
+ Bank overdraft
Short term debt -- -- --
To TOP
Shareholder's Equity
To TOP
FY19E FY20E
9,406 (6,206)
15,000 --
Formula here
Assumptions here
Formula here
-- --
Flowing above in Main balance sheet
Assumptions here
Formula here s
Assumptions here
Formula here
Figures here
-- -- Flowing above in Main balance sheet
-- --
-- --
-- -- Calculation with assumption here
15,000 -- Flowing to Inc Statement (Row 137 for Interest income Calcula
15,000 --
-- --
Figure here
-- -- Flowing above in Main balance sheet
-- --
-- --
Formula here
Calculation with assumption here
Assumptions here
-- --
-- --
-- --
Calulation here
-- -- Calulation here
-- --
#DIV/0!
Inc Statement (Row 159 for Depreciation Calculation)
Inc Statement (Row 159 for Depreciation Calculation)
Inc Statement (Row 159 for Depreciation Calculation)
nterest income Calculation)
To Dashboard
Bajaj Auto
Tangible Assets Schedule
FYE Mar, in Rs millions
Gross block
+ Land
+ Building
+ Plant and Machinery
+ Factory equipment
+ Dies & Jigs
+ Furniture and fixtures
+ Wind Energy Generators
+ Vehicles
+ Other assets 43,903 46,903
Total gross block 43,903 46,903
CAPEX 2,893 3,000
+ Land
+ Building
+ Plant and Machinery
+ Factory equipment
+ Dies & Jigs
+ Furniture and fixtures
+ Wind Energy Generators
+ Vehicles
+ Other assets 23,646 26,719
Net accumulated depreciation 23,646 26,719
Net Block
+ Land -- --
+ Building -- --
+ Plant and Machinery -- --
+ Factory equipment -- --
+ Dies & jigs -- --
+ Furniture and fixtures -- --
+ Wind Energy Generators
+ Vehicles -- --
+ Other assets 20,257 20,184
+ Net Block 20,257 20,184
+ CWIP 522 522
Net Additions to Gross Block
+ Land -- --
+ Building -- --
+ Plant and Machinery -- --
+ Office equipment -- --
+ Computer / Software -- --
+ Furniture and fixtures -- --
+ Vehicles -- --
+ Other assets 2,893 3,000
Total net additions 2,893 3,000
FY18E FY19E FY20E
46,903 Calculation here Flowing to the Inc Sheet (Row No. 86)
46,903 -- --
Assumptions here
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
20,184 -- --
20,184 -- --
522 522 522
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- (46,903) --
-- (46,903) --
the Inc Sheet (Row No. 86)
Bajaj Auto
Historical & Projected
Cashflow Statement
FYE Mar, in Rs millions
-- (0) (0)
FY15 FY16 FY17E
BS Issue of equity
BS Issue of preference capital
BS Proceeds from borrowings
BS Repayment of borrowings 532 501
PL Interest paid (65) (5) (14)
PL Dividend paid, including taxes (16,909) (34,337) (1,741)
PL-BS Any other financing cashflow
Cashflow from financing (16,442) (33,841) (1,755)
CHECK 0 -- --
CHECK 0 -- --
-- (142) 499
-- (967) (499)
-- 689 --
35,146 9,406 (6,206)
FY18E FY19E FY20E
6,560 -- --
6,811 -- --
14,148 -- --
2,552 -- --
(19,263) 556 612
(1,605) -- --
9,203 556 612
-- -- --
-- 46,903 --
12,227 -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
(22,006) -- --
(22,006) -- --
0 20,184 --
115,127 5,000 15,000
-- -- --
115,127 25,184 15,000
(2,894) -- --
(1,625) -- --
-- -- --
-- -- --
(4,518) -- --