Wabah Virus Corona Mengancam Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi Dunia
Penyebaran virus corona membuat perekonomian Tiongkok lesu. Padahal, Tiongkok selama ini menyumbang 17% dari produk
domestik bruto (PDB) global, sehingga gangguan terhadap perekonomian negara tersebut akan dirasakan oleh negara-negara lain.
Perekonomian Hong Kong diperkirakan paling terdampak, dengan potensi penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi 2020 sebesar 1,74%.
Negara lainnya adalah Korea Selatan yang diprediksi akan terdampak sebesar 0,41%, Brasil 0,32%, Australia 0,29%, dan Indonesia 0,
26%. Grafik lengkapnya bisa dilihat pada databoks berikut ini.(Baca: Kerugian Ekonomi dari Virus Corona Tertinggi dibandingkan
Epidemik Lain)

Sumber : Bloomberg Economics, Februari 2020

 NEWS RELEASE
Mar 17, 2020
R&I Upgrades to BBB+, Stable: Republic of Indonesia

Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) has announced the following:
ISSUER: Republic of Indonesia
Foreign Currency Issuer Rating: BBB+, Previously BBB
Rating Outlook: Stable

RATIONALE:
Indonesia's President Joko Widodo is firmly implementing policies to strengthen economic growth
potential, on the back of a political foundation solidified in his second term. Supported by such policy
efforts, the economy is expected to continue stable growth over the medium term. Keeping fiscal deficits
in check, the government maintains its debt ratio at a low level. Foreign reserves are ample relative to
short-term external debts. The country's economic resilience to external shocks is retained under a policy
stance that emphasizes macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline. Based on these factors, R&I has
upgraded the Foreign Currency Issuer Rating to BBB+.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been growing around 5% a year. The real GDP growth rate
for 2019 was 5.02%, affected by a slowdown in investment and external demand. As the global spread of
the novel coronavirus could strain growth in the Indonesian economy, real GDP growth may fall below 5%
in 2020. The government and the central bank are working to shore up the economy and maintain
macroeconomic stability. Given the country's underlying economic strength which remains intact and a
stable political environment, R&I expects the economy to start to recover if the epidemic is brought under
control.
The government aims to enact an omnibus law to combine dozens of laws into one and carry out
reforms, in an initiative to improve the investment climate and create jobs. If enforced, the law would
stimulate capital investment in the private sector, possibly contributing to reinforcing economic
fundamentals and bolstering growth in the medium to long term.
The current account balance has been in a small deficit. The deficit for 2019 narrowed from a year
earlier to 2.7% of GDP. The balance will likely be in a deficit of 2-3% in 2020 and afterwards. Foreign
reserves cover about 7.4 months of imports and servicing of government external debt repayment, and
are equivalent to around twice its external debt due within one year. Foreign exchange risk in the private
sector has decreased as a result of the central bank's introduction of measures to contain foreign
exchange risk, including regulations for hedging foreign currency-denominated debt. Accordingly, there is
little concern about foreign currency liquidity.
The central government fiscal balance for 2019 was a deficit of 2.2% of GDP, which was larger than in
the previous year. This is primarily attributable to lower revenue collection due to the declining global and
domestic economic performance as well as falling commodity prices and acceleration of VAT refunds and
corporate income tax restitution. However, the government maintains its commitment to ensure fiscal
discipline. In the 2020 budget, the government projects a deficit of 1.76% of GDP. It increased budget
allocations for infrastructure development, while maintaining the ratio of education and healthcare budget
to total expenditure. Budget allocations for energy subsidies were reduced, representing a lower
percentage of total expenditure. R&I positively views the government's efforts to improve the quality of
expenditure to move forward its policy priorities of enhancing human capital and strengthening
competitiveness with limited fiscal resources.
In 2020, the fiscal deficit will most likely rise above the government's target. In its policy management,
the government has so far adhered to the rule of containing fiscal deficits at 3% of GDP or lower. Given
that the current situation requires proactive fiscal policies to support the economy and outstanding central
government debt as of end-2019 was estimated low at 29.9% of GDP, R&I believes that a temporary
deficit increase will not affect the rating. The sum of government bonds held by non-residents and foreign

■Contact : Sales and Marketing Division, Customer Service Dept. TEL.+81-(0)3-6273-7471 E-mail. infodept@r-i.co.jp
■Media Contact : Corporate Planning Division (Public Relations) TEL.+81-(0)3-6273-7273
Rating and Investment Information, Inc. TERRACE SQUARE, 3-22 Kanda Nishikicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0054, Japan https://www.r-i.co.jp
Credit ratings are R&I's opinions on an issuer's general capacity to fulfill its financial obligations and the certainty of the fulfillment of its individual obligations as promised (creditworthiness) and are not
statements of fact. Further, R&I does not state its opinions about any risks other than credit risk, give advice regarding investment decisions or financial matters, or endorse the merits of any investment.
R&I does not undertake any independent verification of the accuracy or other aspects of the related information when issuing a credit rating and makes no related representations or warranties. R&I is not
liable in any way for any damage arising in relation to credit ratings (including amendment or withdrawal thereof). As a general rule, R&I issues a credit rating for a fee paid by the issuer. For details,
please refer to https://www.r-i.co.jp/en/docs/policy/site.html. © Rating and Investment Information, Inc.
 NEWS RELEASE
currency-denominated debt accounts for around 60% of outstanding government debt, making its debt
structure susceptible to fluctuations in the global financial market. A policy stance focused on
macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline, along with a strong drive for structural reforms, continues to
be essential.

The primary rating methodology applied to this rating is provided at "R&I's Analytical Approach to
Sovereigns". The methodology is available at the web site listed below, together with other rating
methodologies that are taken into consideration when assigning the rating.
https://www.r-i.co.jp/en/rating/about/rating_method.html

R&I RATINGS:
ISSUER: Republic of Indonesia
Foreign Currency Issuer Rating
RATING: BBB+, Previously BBB
RATING OUTLOOK: Stable

Japanese Yen Bonds Series F Issue Date Maturity Date Issue Amount (mn)
Aug 13, 2015 Aug 13, 2020 JPY 22,500
RATING: BBB+, Previously BBB

Japanese Yen Bonds Series H Issue Date Maturity Date Issue Amount (mn)
Jun 21, 2016 Jun 21, 2021 JPY 38,000
RATING: BBB+, Previously BBB

Japanese Yen Bonds No.1 Issue Date Maturity Date Issue Amount (mn)
Jun 08, 2017 Jun 08, 2020 JPY 40,000
RATING: BBB+, Previously BBB

Japanese Yen Bonds No.2 Issue Date Maturity Date Issue Amount (mn)
Jun 08, 2017 Jun 08, 2022 JPY 50,000
RATING: BBB+, Previously BBB

Japanese Yen Bonds No.3 Issue Date Maturity Date Issue Amount (mn)
Jun 08, 2017 Jun 07, 2024 JPY 10,000
RATING: BBB+, Previously BBB

■Contact : Sales and Marketing Division, Customer Service Dept. TEL.+81-(0)3-6273-7471 E-mail. infodept@r-i.co.jp
■Media Contact : Corporate Planning Division (Public Relations) TEL.+81-(0)3-6273-7273
Rating and Investment Information, Inc. TERRACE SQUARE, 3-22 Kanda Nishikicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0054, Japan https://www.r-i.co.jp
Credit ratings are R&I's opinions on an issuer's general capacity to fulfill its financial obligations and the certainty of the fulfillment of its individual obligations as promised (creditworthiness) and are not
statements of fact. Further, R&I does not state its opinions about any risks other than credit risk, give advice regarding investment decisions or financial matters, or endorse the merits of any investment.
R&I does not undertake any independent verification of the accuracy or other aspects of the related information when issuing a credit rating and makes no related representations or warranties. R&I is not
liable in any way for any damage arising in relation to credit ratings (including amendment or withdrawal thereof). As a general rule, R&I issues a credit rating for a fee paid by the issuer. For details,
please refer to https://www.r-i.co.jp/en/docs/policy/site.html. © Rating and Investment Information, Inc.