The Wizard and the Prophet

- a critique
Charles C Mann’s the Wizard and the Prophet is a thoughtful portrayal of the existential challenges
that the human civilization is staring at in the 21st century providing a balanced and an unbiased view
of the two possible schools of thought to a liveable future.

The book opens with the author wondering how far has the human civilization progressed in the last
century and how is it going to evolve in the next century sustaining a population of 10 billion which is
far more prosperous with far greater wants than that of today.
The book follows through with the two philosophies of human development – that would guide our
approach to the future – personified by the concepts of the wizard and the prophet.
The wizard is that of scientific and technological prowess which believes in human ability to innovate
its way around problems. This school of thought advocates large scale and precisely engineered ideas
and continuous innovation to attack global problems at the local level.
The prophet on the other hand is that of the naturalists which believes in a finite carrying capacity of
the ecosystem where technological innovations and solutions are that of short run gains and creator
of long run problems. This school of thought advocates that the humanity should cut back – its wants,
production and consumption – and work on a small scale in symbiosis with the environment.
The concept of the wizard and the prophet is made interesting by zooming in to the works of the two
20th century figures who exemplify each school of thought.
Norman Borlaug – the wizard – revolutionised agriculture through the scientific research and
technology driven "Green Revolution" when the world was staring at doom on account of hunger.
He was instrumental in saving millions of lives in Asia and Latin America and influenced several more
millions out of poverty. Just like a wizard – Borlaug made the impossible as possible.
William Vogt – the prophet – galvanized the modern ecology and a fierce critic of the wizardian
approach. He pitched for human civilization remaining within the ecological limits by cutting back or
else running the risk of a collapse. The world now deals with the realities of climate change and other
vagaries of human action. Just like a prophet – Vogt’s prophecy is coming to life after his time.
The book then breaks down the discussion into the four classical elements: earth, water, fire and air
and delves into the diverging viewpoints of the wizard and the prophet to assess the four great
challenges for the human civilization – food, water, energy and climate change – grounding each in
historical context and weighing the options for the future.
It discusses in great depth examples across countries from Mexico to Brazil to India to Israel, and
across topics ranging from seeds, fertilizers, fresh water, soil erosion and vagaries of climate
change to the ecosystem from the past and the present to the future.
Weaving together biography, philosophy and science based on interaction, evidence and research, the
book captures the arguments and controversies between the prophet – who demand reduction in the
use of resources – and the wizard – who rely on technology to increase the supply of these resources.
The book presents a balanced and an unbiased view on the two possible paths to a liveable future.

The author eases into his story telling by slowly developing the wizard and the prophet schools of
thought through highlighting the early lives of the two protagonists.
Borlaug’s formative years in the Iowa farm witnessed that with improved seeds, fertilizers and
mechanization, the same piece of land could quadruple the yield.
1 | Pramit Dash
Thus was engraved the near-miraculous capabilities of science and technology to improve human lives
and the foundation of wizardian approach.
The book credibly presents an unbiased view of both the wizard and the prophet approaches with
multiple examples which give the readers enough space to analyze the subject in great depth and form
their own point of views rather than the author imposing his own judgement.
In one of the instances, the author picks up the fresh water supply to contrast the approaches.
Despite only 2.5% of earth’s water reserves being fresh water, yet what is available is more than what
is needed, but very unevenly distributed around the globe.
Brazil, with one-sixth the population of India has four times as much the water. The total reserve is
enough for both the countries, but there is no way to distribute it from one to the other.
While the wizards visualize desalination plants, mega water pipelines and expanded dams as a
solution, the prophets see them as devastating – desalination plants for instance being energy hogs
that pollute the sea and kill marine life with the salt they discharge. Rather they are advocates of an
array of small changes that involve nudging people to change their habits and become more efficient.
The book presents a fantastic account of human innovation to address existential issues and further
effects of human action. It summarizes the "Green Revolution" as the epitome of human innovation
that saved lives or pulled out of poverty close to a billion people. But in its momentum to maximize
the returns of its innovation, the same human action created bigger problems – from soil toxicity to
ground water depletion – for it to solve now. The book rightly asks the readers to stop, wait and think.
It is what we do today that will affect the lives of our children.
The book also approaches the issue of climate change in a balanced manner. The way the author
explains the effect of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in an easy but scientific language
makes it very understandable even for the non scientific common man.
To his credit, Mann never takes sides of the wizard or the prophet. He manages to show the upsides of
the approaches, where they go well and where they go wrong and finds flaws in both, in their view of
the world. Both lacking the social angle ignored the social scientists' point of view.
However, the book misses out to offer solutions based approach. It presents problems and the wizard
and the prophet approaches with its pros and cons. It fails to go to the depth of the issue and state the
ideal approach with its economic and environmental cost implication.

There are no simple answers to the existential questions and neither the wizard nor the prophet
approach alone can address our ideal journey to a liveable future.
Science and technology can bring about innovation – increase food production and energy generation
– but there are costs. Human civilization is indeed leaving its bad imprint on the planet –deforestation,
warming up the environment, acidifying the fresh water reserves and oceans, poisoning the
atmosphere and making the whole ecosystem very fragile.
Similarly, the environmental conservation programs are extremely valuable but alone it doesn’t
produce enough food or energy to support the growing population. Without economic growth,
innovation suffers and cannot solve ecological problems as they arise.
The question that comes up is can’t we have the best of both approaches. Indeed, there is no law
stopping us from having a mix but it’s not easy to blend in the two seemingly opposing value systems.
The wizard and the prophet is a must-read for anyone interested in the synopsis of the effects of
human action on the planet and the future of human civilization and ready to analyze independent
schools of thought and form their own conclusion.

2 | Pramit Dash
References –

1. The Wizard and the Prophet

Charles C Mann, 2018

2. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34959327-the-wizard-and-the-prophet

3. http://www.wahingtonindependentreviewofbooks.com/index.php/bookreview/the-wizard-and-
the-prophet

4. http://nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/03/19/charles-c-mann-wizard-prophet-review

3 | Pramit Dash