2052 -

A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Years
Jorgen Randers
Professor
Center for Climate Strategy
Norwegian Business School BI

Pestel Institut
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Hannover, Germany
J Randers 1 October 13th, 2012
 12 scenarios for
the 21st century

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 2
 Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

3: Industrial output

5: Nonrenewable resources
1 2 3
1
5
2: Food
output
5

4
1: Population 1 2
3
2
1
5
2 5
3 4 4: Pollution level 3 4
4
0
1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

J Randers 3
 Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability
5

5: Nonrenewable resources 5

3: Industrial output
3
3
1 2

5
1 2
2: Food 5
output

4
1: Population 1 2
3

1 4: Pollution level
2 4
3 4
0 4
1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

J Randers 4
Limits to Growth: A small and fragile world

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: KPMG, 2010

J Randers 5
Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

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 For all numerical data
and the forecast model,
consult
the book website
www.2052.info
 The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population GDP GDP per person

2010 2010 2010

(billion (trillion (1000

people) $ pr year) $ pr person-year)
US 0,3 13 41
China 1,3 10 7
OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30
BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6
ROW (3) 2,1 8 4
Sum world 6,9 67 10
(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc
(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies
(3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 8
 World population will peak in 2040
Gpersons % / yr
10 5,0

Population
8 (←scale) 4,0

6 3,0

4 Birth rate 2,0

(scale →)

2 1,0
Death rate

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1

0 0,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 9
 World GDP growth will slow down
G$ / yr 10,000$ / person-yr Gp
150 6,0 6.0

120 4,8 4.8

Population
aged 15 to 65
(scale → →)
90 World GDP 3,6 3.6
(←scale)

60 2,4 2.4

Gross labor
30 productivity 1,2 1.2
(scale →)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a

0 0,0 0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050
Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 10
 Share of GDP in investment will grow
% G$ / yr
40 150

World GDP
32
(scale →) 120
Investment
share in GDP
24 (←scale) 90

Consumption
16 60
(scale →)

8 30

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4

0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 11
 Energy use will peak in 2040
G$
Gtoe / yr toe / M$ / yr
20 300 300
World
energy use
16 (←scale) 240 240
Energy intensity
= Energy use
12 per unit of GDP 180 180
(scale →)

8 120 120
World GDP
(scale →→)
4 60 60

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6

0 0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 12
 Fossil fuels will prevail
Gtoe / yr
6,5

5,2 Coal use

3,9
Oil use

2,6

Gas use
Renewable energy use
1,3

Nuclear use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8

0,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 13
 World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
GtCO2 / yr tCO2 / toe Gtoe/yr
50 5 25

CO2 emissions
40 Climate intensity (←scale) 4 20
= CO2 per unit
of energy
30 (scale →) 3 15

20 2 10

Energy use
(scale →→)
10 1 5

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9

0 0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 14
 Temperature and sea-level will rise
ppm deg C m
500 2,5 1.5

400 CO2 in atmosphere 2,0 1.2

(←scale)
Temperature rise
(scale →)
300 1,5 0.9

200 1,0 0.6

Sea level rise
(scale →→)
100 0,5 0.3

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10

0 0,0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 15
Average disposable income – 1970 to 2050
(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

40.000
WORLD

35.000
BRISE

30.000
China

25.000 OECD
less US
20.000 USA

15.000 RoW
Residual
10.000

5.000

0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

J Randers 16
Democratic decision making takes time

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL COP 15 meeting in December 2009

J Randers 17
What should be done? – Globally
1. Slow population growth: Have fewer
children, particularly in the rich world

2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil

fuels, first in the rich world

3. Help the poor: Build a climate-friendly

energy system in the poor world

4. Temper short-termism: Establish supra-

national institutions
5. Establish new goals: Increase societal
wellbeing in a world without growth
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

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And so? Will this be the end of…
1. …capitalism?
No, in spite of my desire for modification

2. …economic growth?
Yes, GDP growth will slow toward 2052

3. …slow democracy?
No, we won’t speed up in spite of trying

4. …generational harmony?
Yes, and we old will loose
5. …stable climate?
Yes, unless there is extraordinary action
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 19
I don’t like what I see!

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.info

J Randers 20