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Decision tree analysis is just one of a range of techniques that can help the ordinary software
manager to reach a decision. In the following scenarios decision trees allow managers to
select the most cost-effective option.
build it yourselves,
buy it in,
If the software is built from scratch, it is predicted to be in the order of 5,000 loc (5kloc),
with in-house software development currently running at £10 per loc. An off-the-shelf
package has been identified which will satisfactorily meet all the requirements, which (from
the technical spec.) is also in the order of 5,000 loc and costs £25,000.
Questions;
1) Your in-house software team want to develop the package, will you let them?
2) After further study, the off-the-shelf package will need at least 1,500 loc modified to meet
the requirements, assuming the cost to modify is additional to the package cost, do you
buy or develop?
3) A third party now bids to develop the package, they have a good track record and bid
£35,000, which option do you choose now?
As the IT manager you have four options for your new software package; build new, reuse
and modify, buy off-the-shelf and modify, outsource.
Jim Otieno 1
£400,000, and a 20% probability that the modifications will be simple, at a likely cost
of £300,000.
3) If you buy off-the-shelf, in addition to the initial cost of £240,000, there is 50%
probability of minor changes, taking the cost to £320,000, and a 50% probability of
major changes, taking the cost to £400,000.
4) If you outsource, you have been quoted a fixed price of £350,000 from a reliable
company.
Jim Otieno 2