You are on page 1of 8

Research Insight

Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a


Strategic Allocation
A Client Case Study: Wyoming Retirement System
Raman Aylur Subramanian

May 2012

msci.com
Research Insight
Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a Strategic Allocation
May 2012

The Challenge
Wyoming Retirement System (WRS), a public pension plan sponsor with a 50% target policy allocation to
global equities, wished to explore options for diversifying its global equity portfolio. The investment staff
had three main objectives: to lower volatility, improve risk-adjusted returns and decrease fees. To
achieve these goals, WRS examined extensive academic and industry research and ultimately decided to
include risk premia mandates in its strategic allocation.

The WRS Approach


The policy benchmark for the WRS equity allocation is MSCI ACWI, a broad global benchmark that
includes the large and mid capitalization segments of the global equity universe. Panel A of Exhibit 1,
illustrates the WRS policy benchmark in comparison to the pension plan’s final strategic allocation—with
about 70% of the total equity allocation assigned to passive managers, and the other 30% mandated to
active managers. The WRS investment staff decided to allocate 70% of the total passive allocation to a
portfolio that tracked MSCI ACWI IMI, a broad global benchmark that encompasses the large, mid and
small capitalization segments of the global equity universe. This allocation provided a strategic
overweight of approximately 10% to global small caps (size risk premium) in addition to capturing the
core global equity risk premium. They also elected to make two strategic allocations—each of 15%—to
portfolios that passively tracked the MSCI ACWI Value Weighted and MSCI ACWI Risk Weighted Indices.
The two portfolios aimed to capture the value and low volatility risk premia, respectively. By design,
these two portfolios were tilted towards lower capitalization stocks, which led to approximately equal
allocations to the size, value and low volatility risk premia in the overall strategic equity allocation.
Panel B of Exhibit 1, presents the risk and return characteristics of the plan’s strategic allocation to
passive managers versus its policy benchmark which is assumed to be 100% invested in MSCI ACWI. All
return estimates in Exhibit 1 ignore both transaction costs and management fees. It can be seen that a
strategic allocation to risk premia along with a core allocation to the market portfolio provided better
risk adjusted performance over the policy benchmark during the analysis period.

MSCI Index Research msci.com


© 2012 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 2 of 8 RV Jan 2012
Research Insight
Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a Strategic Allocation
May 2012

Exhibit 1: Strategic Allocation to Risk Premia

Policy Benchmark Portfolio For


Strategic Allocation to Risk Premia
Equities
(market+size+value+volatility)
(MSCI ACWI Index)

Panel A: Portfolio Allocations


Market Beta 100%
70% MSCI ACWI IMI Index
Size
Value 15% MSCI ACWI Value Weighted Index
Low Volatility 15% MSCI ACWI Risk Weighted Index
Panel B: Annualized Risk and Return Characteristics (November 1995 to March 2012)
Return (%) 6.2 6.9
Risk (%) 16.6 16.5
Return/Risk 0.37 0.42
Tracking Error (%) 0.00 1.82
Beta 1.00 0.98
Source: MSCI. Portfolio weights are rebalanced quarterly to the target weights.

Before coming to the above mentioned final passive equity allocation, the WRS investment staff
conducted what it described as an extremely thorough due diligence. In the following section we review
the decision points (or due diligence questions) that the WRS investment staff reports that it considered
over the course of their risk premia allocation process. These measures supplemented the existing
policies and procedures regarding equity allocation as approved under WRS investment policy.

Certain Due Diligence Considerations for Risk Premia


Allocations
Cyclicality of Risk Premia into the Future
Numerous studies have demonstrated the existence of risk premia in the past. However, the active
returns of risk premia strategies are cyclical. As more (fewer) investors are willing to bear a particular
kind of risk, the ex ante compensation for that risk decreases (increases). The first decision point for the
pension plan concerned the future behaviors of risk premia. To what extent did WRS investment staff
think that the past risk-adjusted outperformance of risk premia could be expected to persist in the
future?
The interplay of investor flows and factor premia is complex, particularly when examined over varying
time periods. It is expected that relative risk premia returns will wax and wane in the future, as in the
past. (Exhibit 2, for example, displays the cyclicality found in historical risk premia returns from May
1994 ‒ February 2012.) The magnitude and duration of these cyclical patterns largely depends upon the
sources of each risk premium. For example, the value premium can be explained by both a rational
phenomenon, priced in equilibrium as compensation for systematic risk, or by the irrational or
behavioral view that reflects the tendency of certain investors to overreact to good and bad news.

MSCI Index Research msci.com


© 2012 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 3 of 8 RV Jan 2012
Research Insight
Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a Strategic Allocation
May 2012

Exhibit 2: Risk Premia Performance over Time


200

150

100

50

0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Small minus Large Value minus Growth Low Vol minus High Vol

Source: MSCI. Note: Small minus Large represents the performance difference of the MSCI World Small Cap Index relative to the MSCI World
Large Cap Index. Value minus Growth represents the performance difference of the MSCI World Value Index relative to the MSCI World
Growth Index. Low Vol minus High Vol represents the performance difference of simulated volatility equity index consists of the bottom one-
third (Low Vol) and top one-third (High Vol) of the MSCI World Index market capitalization ranked by security variance. The security variance is
calculated using weekly returns over 52 weeks prior to the semi-annual rebalancing date.

The WRS investment staff concluded that by diversifying across multiple uncorrelated risk premia the
pension could improve the risk-adjusted returns of its equity allocation. For example, by allocating to
lower volatility risk premia and assuming a similar expected return as the market portfolio, the pension
decided it could improve the overall risk adjusted return of its equity allocation. Exhibit 3 displays the
correlations between different risk premia and the global market beta as represented by the MSCI
World Index. Most of the correlations among the risk premia shown in Exhibit 3, are low or negative and
confirm that these individual risk premia did capture unique return characteristics and offered
diversification over a nearly 18-year period.
Exhibit 3: Correlations among Risk Premia (Correlations over May 1994 ‒ February 2012)
Small minus Value minus Low Vol minus
MSCI World Index
Large Growth High Vol
MSCI World Index 1.00
Small minus Large 0.04 1.00
Value minus Growth -0.23 -0.02 1.00
Low Vol minus High Vol -0.73 -0.21 0.53 1.00
Source: MSCI. Note: Small minus Large represents the performance difference of the MSCI World Small Cap Index relative to the MSCI World
Large Cap Index. Value minus Growth represents the performance difference of the MSCI World Value Index relative to the MSCI World
Growth Index. Low Vol minus High Vol represents the performance difference of simulated volatility equity index consists of the bottom one-
third (Low Vol) and top one-third (High Vol) of the MSCI World Index market capitalization ranked by security variance. The security variance is
calculated using weekly returns over 52 weeks prior to the semi-annual rebalancing date.

MSCI Index Research msci.com


© 2012 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 4 of 8 RV Jan 2012
Research Insight
Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a Strategic Allocation
May 2012

Strategic versus Tactical


A second decision point for the pension plan was to determine whether an allocation to risk premia
should form a part of its strategic equity mix or whether it should be a purely tactical one.
Often pension plans seek to obtain risk premia tilts in their strategic allocations by assigning mandates
to managers who implicitly or explicitly aim to capitalize on these premia and add alpha. Several studies
have shown that for a majority of managers, their performance results are attributable to having
captured a risk premium with no persistent alpha over and above the premium itself (Gr in b lat t et al.,
1995, Carhart, 1997). This raises the question as to whether investors should strategically allocate to
risk premia rather than obtaining these exposures through a manager selection process. One key benefit
to making strategic allocations to risk premia is that the plan can better control portfolio risk. Each risk
premia allocation has a distinct risk return profile relative to the policy benchmark, which is typically a
market capitalization weighted global index. By recognizing the implications of adding risk premia
exposures at the strategic asset allocation level, the WRS investment staff believed that they could
better control the intended deviation (or active exposure relative to the policy benchmark) from the
WRS equity policy benchmark, the MSCI ACWI Index.
Which Risk Premia to Capture?
Empirical studies have documented the existence of risk premia across various asset classes. The better
known risk premia within equities include, size (Banz, 1981), value (Fama and French, 1992), momentum
(Jegadeesh and Titam, 1993) and low volatility (Haugen and Baker, 1991). The next question the WRS
investment staff confronted was to select which of these four equity risk premia they wanted to have
strategic exposure to. As WRS sought to capture the risk premia in a passive manner, they were
concerned that transaction costs might eat away at any potential risk premia outperformance. The
impact of transaction costs on the capture of a broad market or the equity risk premium through a
market capitalization index is low because the market portfolio is a buy-and-hold portfolio and is
associated with a very low level of turnover. The turnover for size, value and low volatility risk premia
indices are also modest and therefore transaction costs are unlikely to erode their respective premia.
WRS investment staff carefully evaluated the expected transaction costs and ultimately decided to
strategically allocate to the size, value and low-volatility risk premia.
Global versus Local Risk Premia
The next decision point for WRS concerned allocations to domestic versus global risk premia. Like the
risk premia observed in the USA equity markets, many academic studies have confirmed similar premia
in global equity markets (Chan, Hamao, and Lakonishok (1991), Fama and French (1998), Rouwenhurst
(1998), Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2009)). The WRS policy objective was to capture a global
equity risk premium, therefore, the WRS investment staff wished to capture additional risk premia in a
global context. Exhibit 4 displays the historical existence of size and value risk premia across equities in
the USA and Europe. Interestingly, over the May 1994 ‒ February 2012 analysis period, both markets
showed similar performance patterns for these risk premia.

MSCI Index Research msci.com


© 2012 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 5 of 8 RV Jan 2012
Research Insight
Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a Strategic Allocation
May 2012

Exhibit 4: Risk Premia across Markets


180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Europe Value - Europe Growth Europe Small - Europe Large


USA Value - USA Growth USA Small - USA Large

Optimal Allocation
A fifth decision point for WRS was to determine how much capital to allocate to each of the risk premia
in order to obtain a well diversified portfolio. It is possible to apply an optimization process for allocating
among a portfolio of risk premia to maximize the portfolio Sharpe ratio; however, this exercise requires
accurate estimates of risk and return for each of the risk premia and may be prone to estimation errors.
One method for overcoming the challenges of optimization is to use an equal weighted approach. Equal
weighting is a special case of mean-variance optimization that assumes all the risk premia have the same
correlation coefficients, together with identical means and variances. Equally weighted portfolios are
widely used in practice and they have been shown to be efficient out-of-sample (DeMiguel, Garlappi and
Uppal [2009]). The WRS investment staff decided to apply an equal weighted approach to diversify
across the risk premia.
Funding Risk Premia
The next WRS decision point related to how they would fund their risk premia allocation. Should they
decrease the core passive allocation or decrease the allocation to active managers? The WRS investment
staff pursued a more passive investing approach overall, allocating 70% of its equity to a passive strategy
and allocating 30% of its total passive equity portfolio to the passive capture of risk premia.
Implementing Risk Premia
A further decision point related to how WRS would capture the risk premia. Should they use passive
long-only risk premia tilted portfolios or funds that apply proprietary algorithms to create long-short
portfolios to capture the risk premia. Although these proprietary funds have the potential benefit of
capturing risk premia in a purer form (versus long-only funds), they can be constrained by capacity
(especially on the short side of the portfolios) and in general are more expensive to gain access to. The
WRS objective was to access to risk premia in a passive and cost effective manner, and therefore they
agreed to implement a long only risk premium tilted portfolio.
Other Considerations
Today many active managers create passive fund options that track benchmarks that they create and
calculate themselves. These self-created benchmarks introduce a potential conflict of interest and a
governance concern that pension boards and trustees often raise—that is, the separation of roles

MSCI Index Research msci.com


© 2012 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 6 of 8 RV Jan 2012
Research Insight
Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a Strategic Allocation
May 2012

between index providers and managers whose performance is generally measured against index
benchmarks. The WRS investment staff identified this as the final, but the most critical, due diligence
issue that it debated before making its final decision as to which risk premia benchmarks they should
choose. Ultimately, WRS opted to go with an independent index provider, without the potential conflicts
of interest entailed by a money manager or investment consultant. Additionally, the WRS investment
staff recommended adopting risk premia benchmarks that were constructed with a rules-based,
objective, transparent, investable and replicable methodology and with appropriate index management
guidelines to keep the costs of replication reasonably low.

Conclusion
The course of inquiry which led WRS to strategically allocate to granular risk premia may be useful for
other pension plans, even those operating under different constraints. This case study demonstrates
how allocating to risk premia in the strategic asset allocation process enabled one sponsor to potentially
lower volatility, improve risk-adjusted returns and decrease fees.

References
Asness, C., T.J. Moskowitz, and L. Pedersen (2010), "Value and Momentum Everywhere", University of
Chicago and AQR Capital Management working paper.
Banz, R.W. (1981), “The relationship between return and market value of common stocks,” Journal of
Financial Economics 9(1), 3-18.
Black, F., Jensen, M.C., and Scholes, M. (1972), The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Empirical Tests,
Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets
Blitz, D., “Startegic allocation to premiums in the equity market,”, Robeco Asset Management.
Carhart, M. (1997), “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance,” the Journal of Finance 52(1), 57-82.
Chan, L., Y. Hamao, and J. Lakonishok(1991), “Fundamentals and stock returns in Japan,” Journal of
Finance 46, 1739–1764.
DeMiguel, V., L. Garlappi, R. Uppal.(2009), “Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the
1/N portfolio strategy?,” Review of Financial Studies. 22(5), 1915--1953
Fama, E., and K. French (1993), “Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds,” Journal of
Financial Economics 33(1), 3-56.Fama, E., and K. French, 1998, “Value versus growth: The international
evidence,” Journal of Finance 53, 1975–1999.
Grinblatt, M., S. Titman and R. Wermers (1995), “Momentum investment strategies, portfolio
performance, and herding: a study of mutual fund behavior,” American Economic Review 85(5), 1088-
1105.
Haugen, R, and N. Baker (1991), “The Efficient Market Inefficiency of Capitalization-Weighted Stock
Portfolios,” The Journal of Portfolio Management
Jegadeesh, N. and S. Titman (1993), “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for
Market Efficiency,” Journal of Finance 48(1), 65-91.
Rouwenhorst, K. Geert (1998), “International Momentum Strategies,” The Journal of Finance, vol. 53,
no. 1, pp. 267-284.
Wyoming Retirement System (WRS) Board Policy Manual, September 2011.

MSCI Index Research msci.com


© 2012 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 7 of 8 RV Jan 2012
Research Insight
Incorporating Risk Premia Mandates in a Strategic Allocation
May 2012

Client Service Information is Available 24 Hours a Day


clientservice@msci.com

Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific


Americas 1.888.588.4567 (toll free) Cape Town + 27.21.673.0100 China North 10800.852.1032 (toll free)
Atlanta + 1.404.551.3212 Frankfurt + 49.69.133.859.00 China South 10800.152.1032 (toll free)
Boston + 1.617.532.0920 Geneva + 41.22.817.9777 Hong Kong + 852.2844.9333
Chicago + 1.312.675.0545 London + 44.20.7618.2222 Seoul 798.8521.3392 (toll free)
Montreal + 1.514.847.7506 Milan + 39.02.5849.0415 Singapore 800.852.3749 (toll free)
Monterrey + 52.81.1253.4020 Paris 0800.91.59.17 (toll free) Sydney + 61.2.9033.9333
New York + 1.212.804.3901 Tokyo + 81.3.5226.8222
San Francisco + 1.415.836.8800
Sao Paulo + 55.11.3706.1360
Stamford +1.203.325.5630
Toronto + 1.416.628.1007

Notice and Disclaimer


• This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of MSCl Inc. or its
subsidiaries (collectively, “MSCI”), or MSCI’s licensors, direct or indirect suppliers or any third party involved in making or compiling any Information (collectively, with MSCI, the
“Information Providers”) and is provided for informational purposes only. The Information may not be reproduced or redisseminated in whole or in part without prior written permission
from MSCI.

• The Information may not be used to create derivative works or to verify or correct other data or information. For example (but without limitation), the Information many not be used to
create indices, databases, risk models, analytics, software, or in connection with the issuing, offering, sponsoring, managing or marketing of any securities, portfolios, financial products or
other investment vehicles utilizing or based on, linked to, tracking or otherwise derived from the Information or any other MSCI data, information, products or services.

• The user of the Information assumes the entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of the Information. NONE OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDERS MAKES ANY EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE INFORMATION (OR THE RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED BY THE USE THEREOF), AND TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT
PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, EACH INFORMATION PROVIDER EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF
ORIGINALITY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, NON-INFRINGEMENT, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE) WITH RESPECT TO ANY OF THE
INFORMATION.

• Without limiting any of the foregoing and to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall any Information Provider have any liability regarding any of the
Information for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential (including lost profits) or any other damages even if notified of the possibility of such damages. The foregoing shall not
exclude or limit any liability that may not by applicable law be excluded or limited, including without limitation (as applicable), any liability for death or personal injury to the extent that
such injury results from the negligence or wilful default of itself, its servants, agents or sub-contractors.

• Information containing any historical information, data or analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance, analysis, forecast or prediction. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.

• None of the Information constitutes an offer to sell (or a solicitation of an offer to buy), any security, financial product or other investment vehicle or any trading strategy.

• MSCI’s indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Institutional Shareholder Services, Inc. (“ISS”) is a Registered Investment Adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Except with respect
to any applicable products or services from ISS (including applicable products or services from MSCI ESG Research Information, which are provided by ISS), none of MSCI’s products or
services recommends, endorses, approves or otherwise expresses any opinion regarding any issuer, securities, financial products or instruments or trading strategies and none of MSCI’s
products or services is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.

• The MSCI ESG Indices use ratings and other data, analysis and information from MSCI ESG Research. MSCI ESG Research is produced ISS or its subsidiaries. Issuers mentioned or included
in any MSCI ESG Research materials may be a client of MSCI, ISS, or another MSCI subsidiary, or the parent of, or affiliated with, a client of MSCI, ISS, or another MSCI subsidiary, including
ISS Corporate Services, Inc., which provides tools and services to issuers. MSCI ESG Research materials, including materials utilized in any MSCI ESG Indices or other products, have not
been submitted to, nor received approval from, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or any other regulatory body.

• Any use of or access to products, services or information of MSCI requires a license from MSCI. MSCI, Barra, RiskMetrics, ISS, CFRA, FEA, and other MSCI brands and product names are
the trademarks, service marks, or registered trademarks of MSCI or its subsidiaries in the United States and other jurisdictions. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was
developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s. “Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)” is a service mark of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s.

About MSCI
MSCI Inc. is a leading provider of investment decision support tools to investors globally, including asset managers, banks, hedge funds and pension funds. MSCI
products and services include indices, portfolio risk and performance analytics, and governance tools.
The company’s flagship product offerings are: the MSCI indices with approximately USD 7 trillion estimated to be benchmarked to them on a worldwide basis1;
Barra multi-asset class factor models, portfolio risk and performance analytics; RiskMetrics multi-asset class market and credit risk analytics; MSCI ESG
(environmental, social and governance) Research screening, analysis and ratings; ISS governance research and outsourced proxy voting and reporting services; FEA
valuation models and risk management software for the energy and commodities markets; and CFRA forensic accounting risk research, legal/regulatory risk
assessment, and due‐diligence. MSCI is headquartered in New York, with research and commercial offices around the world.
1
As of June 30, 2011, based on eVestment, Lipper and Bloomberg data.

MSCI Index Research msci.com


© 2012 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 8 of 8 RV Jan 2012

You might also like