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NHAI - Update - Jan20 - HDFC Sec-202001311444409529449 PDF
NHAI - Update - Jan20 - HDFC Sec-202001311444409529449 PDF
NHAI
Counting on positives
NHAI finally seems to be firing on multiple fronts to make the NHAI toll collection hits record high: NHAI recorded its
NHAI Ordering
Highway ecosystem more stakeholders/investor friendly. highest daily toll collection number of Rs 862mn in NHAI Ordering Till FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Slew of measures have been announced viz (1) Arbitration January. Though implementation of FASTag technology Length (km) 7,494 4,000 5,200 5,200
settlement though conciliation (2) FASTag implementation has resulted in fixing toll leakages (especially on NHAI
(3) Tweaking of the ToT model & (4) Improving visibility on Rs bn 1,349 743 962 962
operated stretches), increase in traffic volume during the
awarding. These measures add to positives and will benefit festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in
Road EPC players with strong balance sheet. September (monsoon impact) is also a factor resulting in NHAI Capital Structure
KEY DEVELOPMENTS high toll collection numbers. Our Industry channel checks (Rs tn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
suggest about 5-8% normalized increase in NH daily toll
Settlement of arbitration claims through conciliation: collections post FASTag. Equity 1.93 2.23 2.64 3.16
With arbitration claims of ~Rs 700bn and ~180 cases
Debt 1.79 2.39 3.02 3.97
under hearing, NHAI is resorting to settlement of majority NHAI to hit peak debt of Rs 5.4tn by FY25 (end of BM1),
of the claims through conciliation. NHAI is expected to net D/E 1.08x: We forecast NHAI debt to peak at Rs 5.4tn D/E 0.93 1.07 1.15 1.25
reduce its liabilities through this process as it will ensure by completion of Bharat Mala - 1. Increase in toll revenue,
faster disbursement of settlement proceeds to ToT monetization, Toll securitization and GOI funding
developers. This is a big positive for the sector as NHAI-Receipts (Estimated)
support will provide sufficient cash flows for debt
developers can expect faster resolution of arbitration (Rs bn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
servicing.
cases eliminating the need for developers/NHAI to
Cess 161 161 177 195
challenge awards by lower courts in higher courts, leading STANCE
to elongated timelines for reaching settlement in such Toll 92 95 129 179
Road EPC players’ fortunes are linked to NHAI ordering. High
cases. Innovative structures are also being worked out ToT - 50 100 150
land acquisition cost (~30% of Total NH cost) has led to
with HCC initiating a carve-out for around Rs 21bn of debt
ballooning of NHAI debt and concerns on sustainable Total 253 306 406 523
with arbitration awards claims as security. These shall be
ordering. GOI commitment to Infra build-out in India as
moved to an SPV with third party ownership.
envisioned in the NIP program seems positive but lacks
Bidding activity picking up, listed developers on wait and financial detailing (Union Budget 2020 may lend some
watch mode: Historical trends suggest NHAI ordering to visibility). On the positives, NHAI ordering has resumed.
Banking environment is improving with no shortage of Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA
be heavily loaded during Jan-Mar period. NHAI has
capital for companies with strong balance sheet. HAM parikshitd.kandpal@hdfcsec.com
already awarded Rs 202bn worth of projects during
monetization has picked up and most of projects have +91-22-6171-7317
9MFY20. Bid pipeline looks strong with Rs 361bn of
received ‘Appointed Date’. Interest rate has been supportive.
projects lined up for grabs until Feb-20. Further, Mar-20 Shrey Pujari
We maintain our positive stance on the sector going into
bid pipe is awaited. Unlisted players have taken lion share FY21E. We believe peak ordering is still 2yrs away and P/E shrey.pujari@hdfcsec.com
of 9MFY20 NHAI awards. Chinese player Jiangxi has valuation is supportive (average peer P/E 8x FY21E EPS a 50% +91-22-6639-3035
entered the fray and won about Rs 20bn of awards and is discount to long term averages). Top Picks: KNR, PNC, HG
L1 in Rs 17.2bn. Listed bidders have adopted watch and Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. In building segment we prefer Rohan Rustagi
watch mode and are not giving into aggressive bidding. Capacite and Ahluwalia Contracts. rohan.rustagi@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-3021-2079
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE
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NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE
During 9MFY20, NHAI awarded Bidding Activity During 9MFY20 (Rs bn)
Grand
projects of ~Rs 201bn with ~86% of Contractors EPC HAM Item Rate
Total
the projects awarded through the
GR Infra Projects Ltd. 43.9 - - 43.9
EPC mode (with balance projects
KCC Buildcon Pvt. Ltd. 22.5 - - 22.5
awarded through Item Rate Mode Gawar Construction Ltd. 12.4 - 9.5 21.9
and HAM) Jiangxi Construction Engineering (Group) Co. Ltd. 20.2 - - 20.2
Centrodorstroy India Pvt. Ltd 18.8 - - 18.8
Awarding wins for the period was J.Kumar Infraprojects Ltd. 15.4 - - 15.4
driven by unlisted players with GR Krishna Constructions 14.7 - - 14.7
Infra leading the charts having Others 8.9 - - 8.9
secured 22% of the total projects Ashoka Concessions Limited - 7.4 - 7.4
awarded VRC Constructions (India) Pvt. Ltd. 7.1 - - 7.1
S.P.K. and Co. - - 5.2 5.2
Chinese player Jiangxi has won NKC Projects Private Ltd. 4.5 - - 4.5
projects worth Rs 20.2bn and is L1 EKK Infrastructure Limited - - 3.9 3.9
in Rs 17.2bn in 4QFY20. This will be VRC Construction (India) Pvt. Ltd. - Varindera Construction Ltd. - S&P
3.5 - - 3.5
big Chinese foray in Indian NH Infrastructure Developers Pvt Ltd (JV)
construction we will wait to see if it SD Infra - - 1.7 1.7
impact local players bid pattern BP Sangle Constructions 1.3 - - 1.3
Jandu Construction Company 0.6 - - 0.6
J Kumar and Ashoka Buildcon Grand Total 173.9 7.4 20.2 201.5
secured 6th/9th position respectively Source: NHAI, HDFC sec Inst Research
having secured orders worth Rs
15.4bn/7.4bn respectively Jiangxi Construction Engineering, a Chinese Jiangxi Indian partner MKC Infra abridged financials
developer, has emerged as the 3rd largest bidder for
Rs mn FY18 FY19
Jiangxi Construction has also bid for NHAI EPC projects awarded during FYTD20. It has
Revenue 3,590 5,307
EPC packages on Delhi- Vadodara also secured L1 position in 2 EPC orders worth Rs
EBITDA 289 366
stretch (packages 29,30 and 31) in a 17.2bn awarded recently during 4QFY20, in a JV
JV with MKC Infrastructure, which is with MKC Infra, taking the total orders secured to PAT 175 234
Rs 37.3bn. Jiangxi secured the position by bidding at Networth 760 994
a Gujarat based contractor.
a discount of ~2.5% to NHAI cost vs bids placed at a Total Debt/NW 0.3 0.3
premium by other developers. Current Ratio 1.3 1.4
Majority of the orders are secured by the unlisted Source: Brickworks Ratings, HDFC sec Inst Research
players in the road segment, with GR Infra securing
~22% of the orders during 9MFY20.
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NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE
NHAI sees record high average daily toll collection in January 2020
The record high average daily toll
collection can be attributed to NHAI has stated that its average daily toll collection of the project stretch and hence it stands to
factor such as (1) Mandatory has touched a record high of Rs 862mn/day. This receive better valuation for its stretches through
implementation of FASTag, which collection number takes into account collections from ToT asset monetization.
has plugged leakages in toll to toll plaza’s from both BOT Toll projects and those
stretches under NHAI operations. This can be Seasonality factor: On a broad level, toll
some extent (primarily on NHAI collections show an improvement in the 2nd half of
operated projects based on our attributed to the following factors:
the year after the conclusion of monsoon season.
channel checks), (2) Volume based FASTags: Mandatory implementation of FASTag Volume-led growth during the festive season in the
growth during the festive season has aided this to some extent. FASTag was early parts of January is another factor which may
after muted toll collections in the implemented across all NH stretches starting have contributed to average daily toll collections
previous quarter owing to delayed December 15, 2019. This has resulted in reduction hitting above mentioned levels. Considering a 10%
monsoon retreat and (3) Toll of leakage in toll collection to a large extent. factor for seasonality as per our channel checks,
revision and new toll length Through our channel checks, we observed that the normalized average toll collection can be
addition though toll leakage in privately operated toll plazas assumed to be Rs 783mn. Also, as per our channel
wasn’t as rampant, leakage in toll collection was as checks, toll collections were muted during
high as 20% in certain NHAI operated stretches. September due to extended monsoon. Thus due to
With full implementation of FASTag technology base-effect the toll collections appear to have
starting January 15, 2020 toll leakages are increased on a percentage basis during September
expected to reduce further. This is a huge positive to December period.
for NHAI as this will help it ascertain the true value
Annual escalation in toll rates also contributes to since the base year. Adjusting for seasonal
the increase in toll collection. There has been a anomalies, toll hikes and new length addition, we
~4% revision in toll rate in FY20 owing to a 3% flat assess 5-8% improvement in NHAI toll collection
escalation for every year of operation since the post the FASTag implementation
base year (FY07-08) plus 40% of the WPI increase
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NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE
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NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE
Planned Investment in Road Sector (Rs bn)* Vision Going Forward: Over the next 5 years, the govt has
Centre State Private planned to expand the NH network by ~60,000km with
4.0 about 20,000km in major economic corridors, strategic
3.5 areas and major tourist destinations. The government
3.0
expects increased private sector participation at ~39%.
1.4
1.3 Going forward, asset aggregators/PE investors are
2.5 1.2 1.2
expected to maintain asset ownership, signaling NHAIs
2.0 0.9 intentions of scaling up of asset monetization plans.
0.9
1.5
1.2
1.3 1.2 1.2
Of the total planned investments, ~ 34% of the projects
1.0 0.9 0.8
are under implementation, ~27% of the projects are
1.2 1.3 under development, ~ 36% of the projects are under
0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
0.6 0.6 conceptual stage and the balance projects are
0.0 unclassified.
FY18 FY19 FY20* FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
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Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Disclosure:
We, Parikshit Kandpal, CFA, Shrey Pujari, MBA and Rohan Rustagi, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have
beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities
Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
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NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE
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Board : +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com
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