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  • Parcial

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    Rosmeri Cecilia Jimenez
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    The document contains sales data and forecasts for multiple periods in 2018. It compares actual sales to forecasts using different forecasting methods (N=2, 3, 4) and calculates errors and accuracy metrics. Tables show sales, forecasts, errors and accuracy improving as the forecasting method (N) increases in complexity. Charts analyze sales growth percentages and correlate sales to time in order to generate new forecasts for late 2018 through early 2019.

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    The document contains sales data and forecasts for multiple periods in 2018. It compares actual sales to forecasts using different forecasting methods (N=2, 3, 4) and calculates errors and accuracy metrics. Tables show sales, forecasts, errors and accuracy improving as the forecasting method (N) increases in complexity. Charts analyze sales growth percentages and correlate sales to time in order to generate new forecasts for late 2018 through early 2019.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    7 views7 pages

    Parcial

    Uploaded by

    Rosmeri Cecilia Jimenez
    The document contains sales data and forecasts for multiple periods in 2018. It compares actual sales to forecasts using different forecasting methods (N=2, 3, 4) and calculates errors and accuracy metrics. Tables show sales, forecasts, errors and accuracy improving as the forecasting method (N) increases in complexity. Charts analyze sales growth percentages and correlate sales to time in order to generate new forecasts for late 2018 through early 2019.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 7

    mejor N=2 N=3

    pronostico
    ventas pronostico error error absoluto pronostico

    período período x Y´ e eabs y´

    Feb-18 Feb-18 2925


    Mar-18 Mar-18 4680
    Apr-18 Apr-18 6045 3,803 2,243 2,243
    May-18 May-18 5070 5,363 - 293 293 4,550.0
    Jun-18 Jun-18 5655 5,558 98 98 5,265.0
    Jul-18 Jul-18 7410 5,363 2,048 2,048 5,590.0
    Aug-18 Aug-18 8775 6,533 2,243 2,243 6,045.0
    Sep-18 Sep-18 8970 8,093 878 878 7,280.0
    Oct-18 Oct-18 9477 8,873 605 605 8,385.0
    Nov-18 Nov-18 9360 9,224 137 137 9,074.0
    Dec-18 Dec-18 9,048 - 8,246.3
    -

    ME 884.0 ME
    MAE 949.0 MAE

    3
    N=4

    error error absoluto pronostico error error absoluto

    e eabs y´ e eabs

    520.0 520.0
    390.0 390.0 4680 975 975
    1,820 1820.0 5362.5 2047.5 2047.5
    2,730.0 2730.0 6045 2730 2730
    1,690 1690.0 6727.5 2242.5 2242.5
    1,092.0 1092.0 7702.5 1774.5 1774.5
    286.0 286.0 8658 702 702
    7283.25

    1,218.3 ME 1,745.3
    1,218.3 MAE 1,745.3
    % PRONOSTICO INCREMENTO
    período x
    PORCENTUAL
    Feb-18 2925
    Mar-18 4680 60%
    Apr-18 6045 29%
    May-18 5070 -16%
    Jun-18 5655 12%
    Jul-18 7410 31%
    Aug-18 8775 18%
    Sep-18 8970 2%
    Oct-18 9477 6%
    Nov-18 9360 -1%
    Dec-18 10823 16%
    VENTAS PRONOSTICO
    x meses y x*y x2
    1 Feb-18 2925 2925 1
    2 Mar-18 4680 9360 4
    3 Apr-18 6045 18135 9
    4 May-18 5070 20280 16
    5 Jun-18 5655 28275 25
    6 Jul-18 7410 44460 36
    7 Aug-18 8775 61425 49
    8 Sep-18 8970 71760 64
    9 Oct-18 9477 85293 81
    10 Nov-18 9360 93600 100

    55 68,367 435,513 385

    5.5 6836.70 43551.3 38.50


    30 10

    pronostico
    13 Dec-18 12245.29
    14 Jan-19 12966.44
    15 Feb-19 13687.58
    b= 721

    = 2,870

    = 2,870 + 721 x
    =

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