VOL.

VIII, SPECIAL ISSUE (D) AUGUST 2018 MULTILOGIC IN SCIENCE ISSN 2277-7601
An International Refereed, Peer Reviewed & Indexed Quarterly Journal in Science, Agriculture & Engineering
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF KHARIF PULSES IN
WESTERN MAHARASHTRA
Jadhav J.D., V.A. Shinde, S.V.Khadtare, P.B.Pawar and L.N. Tagad
Zonal Agricultural Research Station,
Solapur (MS)
ABSTRACT
In India more than 700 million populations directly depend on agriculture and allied activities of which 52 per cent directly dependent on
climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and fishery for their livelihood. Agriculture sector is most sensitive to climate change and
it affects the food security of India. Looking to the adverse climatic situation and persistent changes in area, production and productivity of
pulse crops, it is felt necessary to study the Impact of climate change on area, production and productivity of pulses in western Maharashtra.
A rise in maximum temperature has a positive and significant effect in yields of pulse crops. On the other hand, a rise in minimum
temperature has also a significantly positive impact on yield on kharif. The effect of rainfall has been found non-significant in all the pulse
crops. The quadratic term of rainfall is negative and non-significant in all pulses meaning thereby a damaging effect on the crop yield.
Introduction gram and green gram were selected for the present study. For
Climate change is likely to affect the agricultural climatic factors actual average minimum temperature, average
production adversely and becomes more serious concern for maximum temperature and rainfall was considered for the present
developing countries because they do not have enough resources study.
to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. Statistics show Looking to the adverse climatic situation and
that the amount of undernourished people is still alarmingly in persistent changes in area, production and productivity of pulse
developing world, so as the case of India. In India more than 700 crops, it is felt necessary to study the Impact of climate change on
million populations directly depend on agriculture and allied area, production and productivity of pulses in western Maharashtra
activities of which 52 per cent directly dependent on climate- with the following objectives to study the trends in area,
sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and fishery for their production and productivity of major pulses, to study the trends
livelihood. Agriculture sector is most sensitive to climate change and variation in the rainfall and temperature to study the
and it affects the food security of India. This study will estimate correlation between climatic factors and production of pulses and
the impact of climatic factors on pulses productivity to facilitate also the impact of changes in climatic situation.
the development of appropriate farm policies to cope with climate Mean and standard deviations of monthly temperature and
change. Regression analysis for a ten districts of western annual rainfall during kharif period of western
Maharashtra was employed during 1961-2015 for climatic data, it Maharashtra, 1961-2015.
was collected from respective research stations and Agricultural Annual per cent change in maximum, minimum, mean
colleges located in the jurisdiction of MPKV, Rahuri. A ten temperatures and rainfall for the kharif season of western
districts of western Maharashtra with 55 years of data from 1961- Maharashtra and actually change is worked out and presented in
2015 was utilized for this study. Productivity of red gram, black Table 1.
Table 1. Mean and standard deviations of monthly temperature and annual rainfall during crop-growing periods, 1961-2015
Particulars Maximum temp. (0C) Minimum temp. (0C) Mean temp. (0C) Rainfall (mm)
Mean 33.5 (0.06) 24.8 (0.06) 29.20 (0.04) 793.15 (32.40)
% Annual change 0.02** 0.005** 0.014** -0.027**
Change (0C) 0.19 0.10 0.15 -2.49
Note: Figures in the parentheses are standard errors, ** and * denote significance at 1 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.
It has been observed from the above table that, in the 793.1 mm during the study period. Significant decreasing trend in
kharif period during 1961-2015 the maximum temperature was rainfall during the kharif season. The kharif rainfall decreased by
increased by 0.190C with percent annual change was highly 2.49 mm. These long-term changes in weather variables suggest
significant at 0.02 per cent, minimum temperature was increased that the climate change impacts in western Maharashtra are largely
by 0.100C with annual percentage change was highly significant at driven by the rise in temperature as well as the change in rainfall.
0.005 per cent and mean temperature was increased by 0.150C Trends in area, production and productivity
with annual percentage change was highly significant at 0.014 per Summary statistics of trends in area, production and
cent while in case of annual rainfall, it was decreased by -2.49 mm productivity of pulses i.e. red gram, black gram and green gram
with annual percentage change was highly significant at -0.027 per has been worked out during 1961 to 2015 (55 years) depicted that
cent, Western Maharashtra showed high variation in the red gram area
Trends is Climate Variables but as such an overall increase in an area under red gram
To understand the behavior of climate variables in kharif cultivation was observed from 1961 to 2015. The area under gram
season, mean growing-period temperature and cumulative rainfall improved from 1986 to 2009 and decreased during the years 2010-
were plotted for the period 1961-2015 i.e. for 55 years revealed a 15.
clear rise in maximum temperature in kharif season. This was In case of red gram Western Maharashtra showed slight
confirmed by the estimated trend coefficients also; during 1961- ups and downs in the production but as such an overall increase in
2015, the kharif maximum temperature increased by 0.190C. In a production was observed from 1992 to 2011 and again there was
kharif season, maximum temperature showed a rising trend. decline in the production 2012 onwards. Productivity under red
However, it is the maximum temperature in kharif season that gram in western Maharashtra was nearly constant up to 200 and
have driven the change in mean temperature.Also revealed that for onwards the decreasing trend was observed in the area under
rise in minimum temperature in kharif season, during 1961-2015 red gram cultivation.
by 0.100C. In kharif season, minimum temperatures have shown a While in case of black gram Western Maharashtra
rising trend. The mean rainfall during kharif season was about showed moderate variation in the black gram area but as such an
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 VOL. VIII, SPECIAL ISSUE (D) AUGUST 2018 MULTILOGIC IN SCIENCE ISSN 2277-7601
An International Refereed, Peer Reviewed & Indexed Quarterly Journal in Science, Agriculture & Engineering
overall area under red gram cultivation was constant from 1961 to productivity was observed from 1982 to 2005. While production
1991. The area under gram improved from 1992 to 2003 and huge was reached its lowest in recent years. Western Maharashtra
decrease in area was observed recent years.Western Maharashtra showed high variation in the green gram productivity an overall
showed overall increase in the black gram production with some increase in an area under green gram cultivation was observed
bad years and there was decline in the production 2014 onwards. from 1961 to 2015 (Fig 15) but productivity in recent years was
Western Maharashtra showed overall increase in the black gram decreased.
productivity with some bad years and there was decline in the Impacts of climate change on crop yields
production 2012 onwards. Regression Results
Green gram in western Maharashtra the area very slightly The estimated equations for pulse crops are presented in
increased during the period of 1961-2015. A huge increase in an Table 2. The geographical or district fixed effect have been found
area has been noted during 1988 to 2003 which was the greatest significant in all the crops, indicating that inclusion of spatial fixed
among the years studied and thereafter area was decreased in effects in climate mode is important for controlling time-invariant
recent years. Trends in production of green gram showed slight location specific characteristics, which might be correlated with
ups and downs in the production but as such an overall increase in the climate variables.
Table 2. Regression results for rabi crops, 1961-2015.
SN Variable Red gram Black gram Green gram
1 Maximum temperature 0.119*(0.055) 0.050(0.054) 0.043(0.069)
2 Minimum temperature 0.107*(0.055) 0.143*(0.054) 0.144*(0.068)
3 Rainfall 0.001(0.001) -0.0005(0.0009) 0.0000(0.0011)
4 Rainfall (Square) -1.054(1.250) 0.360(1.247) -0.221(1.555)
5 Constant 2.884 (7.005) -1.728(2.116) -0.331(8.717)
6 No. of observations 2160 2160 2160
Regression results in respect of effect of weather significant in all pulses meaning thereby a damaging effect on the
variables on production of pulse crops revealed that, a rise in crop yield.
maximum temperature has positive and significant effect on red Marginal effect
gram and chick pea and non-significant effect on black gram and In the presence of non-linear and interaction
green gram crop. On the other hand, a rise in minimum effects, the interpretation of regression coefficients is not straight
temperature has a significantly positive impact on yield on red forward. Therefore, to quantify the effect of changes in
gram, black gram and green gram. The opposing effects of rise in temperature and rainfall, marginal effects were calculated at their
minimum and maximum temperatures in all pulses suggest that mean variables that are changes in crop yield due to rise of 10C
temperature has a non-linear effect on the crop yields. mean temperature or 1 mm in rainfall using equivalent (2). The
The effect of rainfall has been found non-significant in all expected marginal impact of a single climate variable X on yield
the pulse crops. The quadratic term of rainfall is negative and non- evaluated at the mean:
Table 3 Marginal effect of climate change on kharif crops, 1961-2015.
S. N. Variable Red gram Black gram Green gram
1 Maximum temperature 0.1023* 0.0399 0.0339
(0.0566) (0.0568) (0.0696)
2 Minimum temperature 0.1207* 0.1486** 0.1487*
(0.0573) (0.0546) (0.0673)
3 Rainfall -0.0002* -0.0002 -0.0002
(0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001)
Table 3 presents the marginal effect of climate change in Projected Impacts of Climate Change
terms of temperature and rainfall. A rise in the maximum The effects of climate change on crop yields
temperature in Kharif season increases yield of red gram by 10 per have been projected for four time-slices viz., 2025, 2050, 2075 and
cent in case of black gram and green gram marginal effect in nil. 2100 at minimum and maximum changes in temperature and
However, the effect of a similar increases the minimum rainfall (IPCC, 2013). The IPCC has predicted the changes in
temperature has positive and significant effect on yield of all temperature and rainfall for the quarters June-February. There is a
pulses the yield of red gram increase by 12 per cent, black gram by lack of concordance between IPCC defined quarters and the
14 per cent and green gram by 14 per cent. The marginal effect of growing periods used in this analysis. For projecting crop yields,
10C rise in minimum temperature on yield of pulse crops benefit the change in climate during June- February as representative of
more as compared to maximum temperature. the change in kharif season. Accordingly, by 2100 the kharif
The marginal effect of rainfall on pulse crops season temperature is expected to rise by a minimum of 0.7 C and
has been found non-significant. The non-significant effect of a maximum of 3.3 C. The changes in rainfall during this period are
rainfall is expected as the quantum of kharif rainfall is not only projected to be in the range of -7 per cent to 37 per cent and The
less but more variable also. In general, the marginal effect of changes in temperature and rainfall towards 2025 are not so
rainfall is much smaller than of temperature. These results suggest glaring. The crop yields at the minimum and maximum changes in
that the climate change impact on western Maharashtra agriculture temperature have been projected using Equation.
will be largely driven by temperature change.
ΔY= [(∂Y/∂R) × ΔR + ((∂Y/∂T) × ΔT × 100
Table 4 Projected changes in rabi crop yields by 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100.

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Crop 2025 2050 2075 2100
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max
ΔT and ΔR ΔT and ΔR ΔT and ΔR ΔT and ΔT and ΔT and ΔT and ΔR ΔT and
ΔR ΔR ΔR ΔR
Red gram 1.32 0.34 4.31 1.10 7.30 1.86 10.30 2.63
Black gram 0.53 0.13 1.74 0.41 2.94 0.70 4.15 0.98

Green gram 0.54 0.15 1.78
Where, Y is the yield, R is the rainfall, T is the
temperature, and (∂Y/∂R) and (∂Y/∂T) were determined by the
model equations. The projected climate change impacts on crop
yields are given in Table 4. The production of pulses will be
affected more by the climate change than of any other crop. By the
year 2100, with a significant change in climate the climate impacts
on pulses will vary widely in both the seasons. Among kharif
pulses, red gram will be affected more than black gram and green
gram by the climate change. The red gram yield will increase by
over 2-3 per cent with significant changes in climate as compared
to loss of 1 per cent in black gram and green gram. The climate
impacts will not be so severe in the short-run that is, towards 2025.
It is also possible that in the long-run too, the climate impacts may
not be so severe because of continuous adaptation.
Implications for Food Security
Food security is an outcome of the food
production process. The climate change will affect food security
by influencing the availability of food, access to food, stability of
food supplies and volatility in food prices. Red gram, black gram
and green gram are the main pulse crops for a majority of western
Maharashtra population, and our findings suggest a considerable
increase in their yields with significant changes in climate.
By 2050 Maharashtra’s population is likely cross
16.22 crores and India’ population is likely to cross billion
demanding more diversified for our findings indicate with climate
change production more food with limited resources will be a big
challenge. It is therefore imperative to promote up to sustainable
agricultural practices to overcome potential threats to food
security. Set important measures that hold promises of reduce
harmful effect of climate change include intercropping
afforestation, growing drought-to crops, changes in planting dates.
Important adaptations include water harvesting, its conservation
and efficient use through micro-irrigation techniques such as
sprinkler and drip irrigation. According to an estimate, micro-
irrigation, watershed management and insurance cover can avoid
70 per cent of the avoidable loss due to drought.
Conclusions
1. A rise in maximum temperature has a positive and
significant effect in yields of pulse crops. On the other
hand, a rise in minimum temperature has also a
significantly positive impact on yield on kharif.
2. The effect of rainfall has been found non-significant in all
the pulse crops. The quadratic term of rainfall is negative
and non-significant in all pulses meaning thereby a
damaging effect on the crop yield.
3. The marginal effect of rainfall on pulse crops, has been
found non-significant. The non-significant effect of
rainfall in the both the seasons is expected as the quantum
of rainfall is not only less but more variable also. In
0.49 3.01 0.83 4.25 1.18
general, the marginal effect of rainfall is much smaller
than of temperature.
4. By the year 2100, with a significant change in climate the
climate impacts on pulses will vary widely in both the
seasons. Among kharif pulses, red gram will be affected
more than black gram and green gram by the climate
change. The red gram yield will increase by over 2 to 3
per cent with significant changes in climate as compared
to loss of 1 per cent in black gram and green gram.
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