BREXIT

INTRODUCTION
1. On 29 March, 2017, UK triggered Article 50 which started the clock on the
process of the UK leaving the EU. New Prime Minister Jonson seems determined to
execute Brexit by scheduled date i.e. 31 Oct, 2019; but sudden political alliance
against Jonson against his attempt of no deal Brexit has made it uncertain.

TIMELINE
2. 7 May, 2015 In the general election, David Cameron wins a 12-seat majority
with a manifesto that includes the commitment to hold an in/out referendum.
3. 23 June, 2016 The referendum sees Leave campaigners win a narrow victory
with 51.9% against and 48.1% for Remain. Mr Cameron resigns immediately as prime
minister.
4. 13 July, 2016 Theresa May becomes prime minister.
5. 29 March, 2017, She triggers Article 50 which starts the clock on the process of
the UK leaving the EU.
6. 8 June, 2017, Having surprised many by calling a general election, Mrs May
loses her majority in Parliament. Northern Ireland's DUP - led by Arlene Foster -
makes a deal with the Conservatives and its votes allow Mrs May to stay in power.
7. 26 June, 2017, Formal negotiations on withdrawal begin between the UK and
the EU.
8. 19 March, 2018, The UK and EU make decisive steps in negotiations.
Agreements include dates for a transitional period after Brexit day, the status of EU
citizens in the UK before and after that time and fishing policy. Issues still to be sorted
out include the Northern Ireland border.
9. 31 October, 2018, The EU’s chief negotiator has said negotiations must be
complete before the end of October to give the 27 EU countries time to sign off the
deal. MPs will also get to vote on the final deal in the UK Parliament before 29 March
2019.
10. 29 March, 2019, Brexit day – the UK ends its membership of the European
Union at 23:00GMT and enters a transition period.
11. 31 December, 2020, The transition period is due to end and the new economic
and political relationship between the UK and the EU to begin.
12. June 07: Theresa May resigned from PM due to her failure to set deal.
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13. 23 July: Jonson became new PM of UK and planned for No-Deal Brexit.
14. August 28 Jonson proposed suspension of parliament (from 09 Sep to 14 Oct)
for up to five weeks and the Queen approved. Opposition termed it as parliamentary
Coup to stop opposition to block Jonson to have no deal Brexit on 31 Oct 2019.
15. 03 Sep, MPs (Members of Parliament) challenged Jonson's No-Deal approach.
16. 05 Sep, Jonson's attempted to stop opposition by calling fresh election before 31
Oct.
17. 07 Sep, Parliament has passed legislation which would require the Prime
Minister to delay Brexit if a deal is not in place by October 19.

REASON FOR BREXIT

18. Sovereignty. Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said that the biggest single
reason for wanting to leave the European Union was “the principle that decisions about
the UK should be taken in the UK”. i.e. decision of UK should not be influenced by
EU or other countries. Who oppose the EU believe that multinational institutions such
as EU, the IMF, and NATO no longer serve a purpose; moreover, these organizations
take control away from individual nations.
19. Immigration. One third (33%) [of leave voters] said the main reason was
that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and
its own borders.”'. The influx of refugee in Europe from Middle East and Africa also
alarmed the voters.
20. Economy. One of the biggest reason was the economy. Pro Brexit voters
believed what Brexit can support British economy as follows;
(a) European debt crisis will affect less to British economy. The EU failed to
address the economic problems that had been developing since 2008… for
example, 20% unemployment in southern Europe.
(b) Control of immigration would ease pressure in public services such as
schools and hospitals, as well as giving British workers more jobs and higher
wages. Data showed that majority (77,000 out of 184,000) of net migration from
EU were looking for Job.
(c) In current system, UK cannot implement its own international agreements
unless the EU agrees
21. Security. Biggest threat was not the recent refugees but, were the Muslim
population from third country who have already received passport of European
countries. They have free access to U.K. and British perceived it as a threat.
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22. Death Penalty. Likewise, considerable voters voted to leave due to their
support for the death penalty.
23. Less Integration. UK is and felt less integrated with the EU than other
European citizens. Study shows that fewer Britons considered themselves European
than any other EU nationality. Furthermore, they show that British trading patterns,
capital flows and emigration patterns were the least Europeanised of any EU member
state. In contrary to other EU members, UK is not in the Schengen Agreement, it
doesn't use the euro currency, and it's not in a range of other EU treaties and
agreements.
24. Referendum. Referendum for independence of Scotland may have ignited
a possibility that within the terms and condition of EU, it will be difficult for UK to
control Scotland.

MAJOR PROBLEMS UNRESOLVED (MAJOR AGENDAS OF

NEGOTIATION BETWEEN UK AND EU)
25. Northern Ireland Issue. Northern Ireland issue is possibly the thorniest topic
and one on which the whole process could founder. Both the UK and EU have
committed themselves to keeping the border between Ireland and the UK open and
doing nothing to undermine the Good Friday Agreement (April 10, 1998 agreement
that permitted open border between Republic of Ireland and the Norther Ireland of
UK), but the promise is proving to be easier said than done. The EU proposed a
“common regulatory area” comprising the EU and Northern Ireland, and that the
“territory of Northern Ireland” (excluding territorial waters) be considered to be inside
the Customs Union. This would mean that Northern Ireland would still effectively be
inside the customs union, even if the rest of the UK was out. This would mean there
would be no need for checks at the Irish border, but there could be checks between
Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Removing Northern Ireland, along with the
rest of the UK, from the European customs union risks creating a need for checks on
the border. Keeping the North in the customs union would effectively draw a border
down the Irish Sea. If neither of these options comes to fruition, the EU insisted on a
"backstop" alternative under which parts of the Northern Irish economy would remain
closely integrated into the EU's systems. EU published a draft withdrawal agreement
on Feb. 28. That text laid out a proposal for a so-called backstop -- an assurance that,
whether or not a final Brexit agreement is reached, Northern Ireland would effectively
remain aligned with the EU’s Customs Union and single market. That idea was
rejected out of hand by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, who sees it as threat to her
nation’s territorial integrity.
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26. Fishing. The draft agreement text provides for Britain to stay in the common
fisheries policy (CFP) until the transition period concludes at the end of 2020. During
this period, the UK will be "consulted" on the allocation of fishing quotas but will have
no decision-making powers. Only from 2021 will the UK be able to negotiate access to
its waters as a sovereign nation. Some 14 of the PM's parliamentary allies - 13 Tories
and one DUP MP - have denounced the proposals
27. Trade. Trade will be the meat of the negotiations from now on, with huge
areas of detail to be discussed and agreed. Few observers believe that talks can be
concluded in time for a final agreement to be implemented on Brexit day or even by
the end of the transition period, though that remains the Government's goal.
28. Votes & Consensus. Mrs. May will have to navigate her way through
perilous waters to secure parliamentary backing for her Brexit plans, as required by a
successful Commons rebellion in December. Theresa May's cabinet had a wide variety
of views on Brexit - from those who opposed Brexit, to those who led the Leave
campaign during the referendum. Getting them all to agree on a vision for the future
has been quite a challenge. The EU will negotiate but will not change its own rules to
meet British demands. At home, both the withdrawal treaty and the framework
agreement will face intense parliamentary scrutiny through the year and in the final
“meaningful” vote. Whatever deal is thrashed out will have to satisfy not only the
European Commission and the UK Government, but as many as 38 national and
regional parliaments across the continent, some of which have shown themselves ready
in the past to threaten vetoes unless their particular local concerns are met.
29. Scotland. The Scottish governments have denounced the EU Withdrawal Bill
as a Whitehall "power grab". It will not be easy to address the aspiration of Scottish
population, the majority of whom (62%) had voted during referendum to remain with
EU.
30. Status During Transition Phase. Transition phase of two years after
initiation of BREXIT on March 2019. The EU wants the UK to continue to follow its
rules but not be involved in making decisions. UK wanted a "right to object" to new
laws passed by the EU during this time.
31. Status of temporary residents such as students and workers .` Mrs May says
the plan will also end the free movement of people "giving the UK back control over
how many people enter the country". But a "mobility framework" will be set up to
allow UK and EU citizens to travel to each other's territories, and apply for study and
work
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IMPLICATION OF BREXIT
Impact to UK
32. The plan suggests that the UK would also be free to strike its own trade deals
with countries around the world, something it is currently unable to do as a member of
the EU customs union.
33. Likely devaluation of Pound Sterling. A hard Brexit is lacking in the kind of
transparency in negotiations that would attract investors, and is therefore likely to
decrease the value of the pound
34. In case of hard Brexit, hard Brexit would have no agreement in place prior to
Britain leaving the European Union, which could mean that UK citizens living
throughout Europe could be forced to leave or face other uncertainties this time.
35. Construction and agriculture are heavily dependent on EU labor.
36. But even out of the EU, Britain will remain a key member of Nato.
37. The UK will also continue defence cooperation with France, based on bilateral
agreements.
38. Britain is the big spender on defence in Europe.
39. Britain could also lose influence among allies.
40. The most practical problem for UK defence would be if Brexit proved to be the
catalyst for Scottish independence.
41. It is one of a handful of countries meeting Nato's target of spending 2% of its
gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, and one of only two nuclear powers within
the EU.
42. NHS leaders, though, are anxious the issue is resolved as soon as possible to
prevent uncertainty that might result in an outflow of doctors, nurses and care workers.
Regional Impact
43. Other EU members may follow BREXIT path
44. Uncertainty regarding what happens to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU
and EU citizens living in the UK. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has stated that
those who have lived in Britain for five years or more would be eligible to apply for
“settled status.” UK citizens may no longer be able to freely live in EU countries
without applying for visas and residency. Several nations, including Belgium, have
threatened to make it more difficult for UK citizens to move freely throughout the EU
as talks between Britain and the European Union have turned increasingly sour.
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45. There is a consensus that the access Britain has to Second Generation Schengen
Information System (SIS II), Europol and the European Arrest Warrant (EAW) is vital
to the UK's crime-fighting capabilities.
46. The European financial services industry is concentrated in London.
47. EU may agree to give the UK some access to SIS II and other crime databases -
much of the information generated comes from the UK and so they benefit too.
48. When the UK voted to leave the EU, some Brexiteers believed Britain's
departure would prompt other countries to follow. Instead, it led to a mood of renewed
solidarity among member governments, for in spite of Eurosceptic populism in a
number of countries, the value of EU membership is highlighted by Brexit.
49. 16 countries at the core of the EU, with another 11 countries having varying
degrees of participation.
International Implication
50. Other countries' Trade deal with UK and EU will be affected. Those countries
will have to separately deal with UK and separately with EU.
51. Tourist's movement from UK to EU and vice versa will be difficult and
complex.
52. Migrant's movement from EU to UK will be severely limited.
53. Britain’s image will be redefined. Foreign relation of UK with other nation will
now be more direct.
54. NATO may be affected. Chinese and Russian leadership will now benefit more
in terms of economic, diplomatic and military power.
55. Mr Xi, Mr Putin and Mr Trump.

Implication to Nepal.
56. Brexit will lead to return of polish and other labors from UK to EU. This will
create vacuum, which can be cased as job opportunity by Country Like Nepal.
57. Likely devaluation of pound sterling means UK will be cheaper destination to
travel; however, value of denotation that Nepal annually (168 Million in 2015) receives
from UK will be devalued. This will also devalue the amount of remittance to Nepal,
sourced out from UK.

WAY AHEAD

58. With ongoing political instability; the Brexit issue now seems VUCA (Volatile,
Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous). Negotiations about future relations between the
UK and the EU are taking place now. Both sides hope they can agree by the end of this
year an outline of how things like trade, travel and security will work.
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59. With British Politics, followings may happen;

(a) MPs could agree to an election after it has returned on October 14
(b) If there is not a deal in place by October 19, If Majority MPs went against
him and if Queen asked, Mr Johnson would be legally bound to ask EU to
delay the Brexit,
(c) Mr Johnson could resign to save face and avoid having to go to Brussels
to ask for a delay to Brexit.
60. Now, there are three possible outcomes i.e. no Brexit, soft Brexit or the hard
Brexit.
(a) No Brexit No Brexit is now very likely as UK and EU has moved away
from negotiations and Jonson's attempts of no deal Brexit or new election have
failed.
(b) Hard or Cliff-Edge Brexit. A hard or cliff-edge Brexit would take place
if negotiation fails. It would immediately remove Britain from the single market,
meaning it would lose its privileges for free movement of goods, services,
capital and people with the member states of the European Union. It is also
known as no deal Brexit. As negotiations are not that comfortable, hard Brexit is
less likely.
(c) Soft/smooth Brexit. It is preferred option for UK citizens; however,
it is least likely option. Soft/smooth Brexit plans for EU-UK free trade deal,
along with special treaty relationships in areas such as security, defense and
research.

CONCLUDING REMARKS
61. "no deal is better than a bad deal" - but, a deal would be the best option for
everyone.