Committee: Security Council

Issue: The Question of the Evaluation of the Brexit Deal

Name: Katrina Rivera

Position: President

Introduction:
On the 23rd of June 2016, the United Kingdom held a national referendum on the
question of staying or leaving the European Union (EU). Due to recent waves of
Euroscepticism, results showed 51.9% of voters in favor of leaving the EU, thus the
beginning of Brexit, a “British Exit”. The UK then formally notified the EU with its
intentions to withdraw on March 29, 2017, invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European
Union (TEU), inaugurating the two-year withdrawal period of negotiations for the nation.

Article 50 states that “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in
accordance with its own constitutional requirements”. Thus, resulting in the Brexit deal,
the terms and agreements Britain and the EU must come to for the UK to exit without
major economic and political repercussions. The exit was scheduled to occur on the
29th of March 2019, but has since been delayed twice. The final date is now set to
occur on October 31, 2019. Current Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is urged to move the
exit date once again, due to lack of ability to come to an agreed deal between Britain
and the EU, setting the UK on an unstable path to a no-deal Brexit.
Definition of Key Terms

Term Definition (source)

Brexit Abbreviation for “British Exit” referring to the

United Kingdom’s exit from the European
Union

Brexit Deal The binding withdrawal agreement between

the UK and EU, with terms for the process of
removal

Referendum Legal procedure where law or matter of State

importance is put to popular vote

Euroscepticism Criticism of the European Union

Background Information
Britain and the European Economic Community (EEC)
The European Union (EU) currently consists of 28 member states. The EU originally
began as the ‘European Economic Community’, formulated on the 25th of March 1957.
The EEC was established after WWII, as Europe suffered terrible ramifications as a
result of the war. They believed to avoid another catastrophic war, the European
countries must strengthen their economic bonds. The United Kingdom’s proposal for
accession into the EEC was continually declined in 1963 and 1967, due to vetos from
President of France, Charles De Gaulle. Finally, in 1973, the UK entered the EEC, only
to have a referendum two years later on exiting. In 1975, the nation held a public
referendum on the question of: “Do you think the UK should stay in the European
Community?". 67.2% of the results voted “yes” to staying in the bloc. In 1984, tensions
between Britain and the EU worsen during the UK rebate (or UK correction), when
former Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, debated reducing British payments to the
EEC. This reduced the UK’s payments to the EEC budget from more than 20 percent to
12 percent and still remains in place.

Rise of Euroscepticism
Several years later, in 1992, the members of the EEC signed the Maastricht Treaty,
which laid the basis for the EU today. The treaty which took effect in 1993, gave birth to
the European Union, and renamed the EEC into the “European Community (EC)”,
establishing it as the first pillar of the Union. The treaty also formed the two new pillars
of the EU, “Common Foreign and Security Policy” and “Cooperation in the Fields of
Justice and Home Affairs”. The main role of the treaty was to strengthen political and
economic ties between nations, creating a single European currency, the euro, to which
the UK was granted exemption.

Tensions continued to rise in the following years as arguments between British exports
to Europe arose. Examples of this are the ban on British beef and chocolate. The ban
on British beef stemmed from the threats of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE),
“mad cow disease” in 1996, resulting in a worldwide ban on British beef exports. The
ban was lifted by the EU ten years later, in March 2006. The affair of British chocolate
was a 27 year-long battle in the European Court of Justice, about whether or not their
chocolate should be sold around Europe. European countries argued that only cocoa
butter should be used when making chocolate and British brands had too much milk.
The case was won in 2000 and British chocolate could be sold around Europe. Several
examples through the years only brought light to the already rising Euroscepticism in
the UK. The physical and situational barriers between the UK and EU has been
continually growing since it’s entry in 1973.

The 2016 referendum and its outcome

The question of exiting the European Union has been lingering above the nation for
decades. In 2013, former Prime Minister, David Cameron, gave a speech outlining the
issues facing Europe and promised to renegotiate the UK’s membership in the EU. As
part of his re-election campaign, he promised a public referendum, of whether or not to
stay or leave the EU. After winning re-elections in 2015, Cameron began renegotiations
for the relationship between the UK and the EU. These results were shared in February
2016, and the referendum was set to date on June 23rd of that year. Expecting the
people to vote to stay in the EU, Cameron was shocked to see the votes in favor of
leaving the Union. After the success of the Leave vote, David Cameron resigns as
Prime Minister.

On July 16, 2016, Theresa May was appointed Prime Minister by Queen Elizabeth II. As
the new PM of the UK, she was left with the issue of Brexit. May announced her
intention to exit the European Union, through invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of
European Union (TEU). Article 50 states that “Any Member State may decide to
withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”. On
March 29, 2017, May formally signed the notice of Britain’s intent to leave the EU,
beginning the two year withdrawal period for the UK to exit. The original date of exit was
on March 30, 2019, but due to the inability of the British parliament to settle an EU
withdrawal agreement, the European Council has moved the deadline to October 31,
2019. Theresa May resigns on June 7th of that year and is succeeded by Boris
Johnson, former London mayor.

The threat of a no-deal Brexit

Boris Johnson has been determined to execute Brexit, with or without a deal, which
creates conflict for the entire nation. Enforcing Brexit without a proper withdrawal
agreement between the European Union could result in extreme ramifications to the
stability of the United Kingdom’s economy. It creates an unstable landscape for the
policies the EU has set for its member states, such as; access to the European single
market, effects on trade and food prices, policies for migration to and from the UK, etc.

Preceding Johnson’s term were Theresa May’s attempts at creating a Brexit deal with
the EU. May and the EU had come to an agreement in November 2018 but were
rejected by Members of Parliament (MPs) three times, resulting in the delays of the
deal. Boris Johnson is completely against another delay for Brexit, willing to opt for a
no-deal Brexit. He has also recently temporarily suspended Parliament, stirring conflict
within the British system. A no-deal contingency plan has been leaked as of last month,
entailing all the details and consequences of a no-deal Brexit, entitled “Operation
Yellowhammer”, resulting in criticism of Johnson and his government.

Major Countries and Organisations Involved

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK)
The United Kingdom is the fifth-largest economy in the world. Its exit from the European
Union could shift it’s economic and political landscape, resulting in instability for the
country. Its possible consequences entail paying import and export tariffs to and from
the EU, possible bans on British products, new immigration controls and lack of free
movement, issue of the border between North Ireland and the Republic could ensue
possible violence, and risk of another UK recession. The United Kingdom is one of the
permanent members of the United Nations and P5 of the Security Council. The
possibility of Brexit could affect their relationship with other EU member states.

The European Union (EU)

The European Union currently consists of 28 member states. The United Kingdom is
critical to the EU, making up 15% of the EU’s total income. The UK is the first member
state to exit the Union by invoking Article 50. Thus, turning the case of Brexit into
example for other member states. The EU must demonstrate the consequences of
exiting the Union while avoiding conflict with its current member states.
Timeline of Events

Date of Event Description of Event

January 23, 2013 Former Prime Minister, David Cameron, announces a stay or
leave referendum on EU membership if Conservative party wins
general election

May 7, 2015 Conservative party wins general election

June 2015 Beginning of UK-EU relationship negotiations

February 2016 European Council publishes draft blueprint of proposed changes

to the United Kingdom’s membership in the Union

July 23, 2016 Public referendum on the question of EU membership, to

“remain” or “leave”

July 24, 2016 David Cameron announces resignation

July 16, 2016 David Cameron resigns as Prime Minister and Theresa May is
appointed PM by Queen Elizabeth II

March 29, 2017 Theresa May formally announces leave of the UK from the
European Union

November 2018 Theresa May and EU form agreement on the Brexit deal, but is
rejected by Parliament

March 30, 2019 Initial date for exit - European Council grants extension to
October 31st

June 7, 2019 Theresa May resigns as Prime Minister

 July 24, 2019 Boris Johnson, former London mayor, assumes office as Prime
Minister

October 31, 2019 Current exit date for the United Kingdom from the EU

Past and Possible Solutions:

1. Chequers Deal:
During Theresa May’s term as Prime Minister, she had proposed her version of a Brexit
deal, ​The Chequers Deal.​ This deal became very controversial ending in several
resignations of high profile officials in the UK. At the plan’s core was to create a “free
trade area for goods”, continued access to the European single market, along with
several plans to protect jobs and livelihood. Theresa May’s plan initially received
positive criticism but was eventually denied by EU and Parliament members for cases of
“special treatment”.

2. Hard/Soft Brexit:
If the United Kingdom were to continue with their removal from the EU, they would have
two options on their means of exit; a soft Brexit or hard Brexit. A soft Brexit would
indicate a break from the EU, but not full, retaining a piece of the EU’s single market.
The UK can not retain the single market, without also adhering to EU principles such as
the free movement of people. Many politicians are against a soft Brexit for the reason of
control on immigration, one of the biggest issues facing the UK today.
A hard Brexit would indicate complete freedom from the European Union. The UK would
lose access to the EU’s single market, but also give the UK the freedom to set their own
trade deals and rules without restrictions or tariffs. The problem with this is the time it
would take to establish these rules independently with European partners. This would
be very risky for the UK because 45% of British exports are to the European Union, and
50% of imports into the UK are from the EU. A hard Brexit would put the British
economy at risk and in a state of uncertainty.

3. No-deal Brexit:
If the UK can not come to an agreed Brexit deal, this would result in a no-deal Brexit. As
mentioned, this is extremely dangerous to the British economy. The Bank of England
warns the possibility of another recession, crash of the British pound, and the shrinking
of the British economy by 8% a year. As the October 31st deadline nears, this becomes
the most likely solution for the United Kingdom.

4. 2nd Referendum:
Due to recent notice of the ramifications of Brexit, many voters and politicians have
opted for another referendum. If done so, the possibility of reversing Brexit and
continuing as before is very possible. Many argue against this option because they feel
it defeats the purpose of the first referendum and does not respect its results.
Resources for Further Reading
Any documents or treaties mentioned above are available below for further analysis:

● Article 50 on the Treaty on European Union ​(2009)

● Chequers Deal Summary​ (2018)
● Full Chequers Deal White Paper​ (2018)
● Operation Yellowhammer​ (2019)

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