Sudersan

23 January y

Brexit

Tutor Name : Professor Anthuvan

Words : 5737

What Is Brexit?

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Brexit is an abbreviation for "British exit," referring to the U.K.'s decision in a June 23, 2016
referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The vote's result defied expectations and
roiled global markets, causing the British pound to fall to its lowest level against the dollar in
30 years. Former Prime Minister David Cameron, who called the referendum and cam-
paigned for Britain to remain in the EU, announced his resignation the following day.

Theresa May, who replaced Cameron as leader of the Conservative party and prime minister,
stepped down as party leader voluntarily on June 7, 2019, after facing severe pressure to re-
sign. On July 23rd, 2019, Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party leader, former Mayor of
London, British Foreign Minister, and editor of The Spectator newspaper, was elected Prime
Minister. Johnson campaigned on a platform to leave the EU by the October 31st, 2019 dead-
line "do or die". Britain has to ratify a withdrawal agreement with the EU before leaving if it
wants to avoid a chaotic "no-deal" exit. The deal May negotiated with the EU was rejected by
the House of Commons three times, and she shelved plans to put it to a vote a fourth time af-
ter the changes and compromises she was willing to make angered many senior members of
her party.

BREXIT PERIOD

Britain has managed to avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal by extending the negoti-
ating period twice. This did mean it was forced to participate in the EU Parliament elections
held on May 23. Britain can leave the EU before October 31 if it chooses to, either with a
deal or without.

Johnson, a hardline Brexit supporter, is prepared to leave the EU without a deal. If Britain
leaves the EU without the ratification of a deal in what is known as 'Hard Brexit', there will
be no two-year transition period. The U.K and the EU are meant to negotiate a new, long-
term trade agreement during the transition period. In the absence of a deal, WTO rules will
come into effect.

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Johnson may choose to hold talks with the opposition party to reach a compromise and win
approval for May's deal, but his campaign rhetoric indicates that he won't take that path. He
could also propose another round of votes on Brexit alternatives. MPs have voted twice on
several options, but none were able to receive majority support.

THE REFERENDUM

"Leave" won the June 2016 referendum with 51.9% of the ballot, or 17.4 million votes; "Re-
main" received 48.1%, or 16.1 million. Turnout was 72.2%. The results were tallied on a
U.K.-wide basis, but the overall figures conceal stark regional differences: 53.4% of English
voters supported Brexit, compared to just 38.0% of Scottish voters. Because England ac-
counts for the vast majority of the U.K.'s population, support there swayed the result in
Brexit's favor. If the vote had been conducted only in Wales (where "Leave" also won), Scot-
land and Northern Ireland, Brexit would have received less than 45% of the vote.

THE ARTICLE 50 NEGOTIATING PERIOD

The process of leaving the EU formally began on March 29, 2017, when May triggered Arti-
cle 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The U.K. initially had two years from that date to negotiate a
new relationship with the EU. Following a snap election on June 8, 2017, May remained the
country's leader. However, the Conservatives lost their outright majority in Parliament and
agreed on a deal with the Euroskeptic Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This later caused
May some difficulty getting her withdrawal agreement passed in Parliament.

Talks began on June 19, 2017. Questions have swirled around the process, in part because
Britain's constitution is unwritten and in part because no country has left the EU using Article
50 before (Algeria left the EU's predecessor through its independence from France in 1962,
and Greenland – a self-governing Danish territory – left through a special treaty in 1985).

On November 25, 2018, Britain and the EU agreed on a 585-page withdrawal agreement, a
Brexit deal, touching upon issues like citizen's rights, the divorce bill and the Irish border.

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Parliament first voted on this agreement on Tuesday, January 15, 2019. Members of Parlia-
ment voted 432-202 to reject the agreement, the biggest defeat for a government in the House
of Commons in recent history.

Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote held on January 16 and she unveiled her Plan B
on January 21. The plan was criticised for being very similar to the original deal she pre-
sented.

On January 29, MPs voted for May to return to Brussels to remove the controversial Irish
backstop portion of her plan and replace it with alternative arrangements, but the EU had said
the deal is not open for re-negotiation. The backstop is a plan to avoid a hard Irish border if
the U.K. and EU don't sign a free trade deal during the transition period post-Brexit.

May was seeking changes to the controversial Irish backstop provision to win Parliament's
backing. The backstop is intended to be temporary, but Euroskeptic MPs worry it will last in-
definitely and compromise Britain's autonomy. She was also accused by the Labor Party of
"recklessly running down the clock" to force MPs to choose between her deal and a no deal
outcome.

MPs voted against her deal by 391-242 votes on March 12 despite May's claim of "legally
binding" changes to the agreement, setting Britain on the path to a no-deal Brexit. Parliament
stepped in to delay it and the EU gave its permission.

On March 27, none of the eight Brexit alternatives voted on by Members of Parliament re-
ceived a majority. May's deal was rejected again on March 29 by a margin of 58 votes, de-
spite her vow to resign before the next stage of negotiations if it was passed.

The Labor Party faces its own crisis after almost a dozen lawmakers decided to leave and
form the Independent Group in the House of Commons. They blamed Corbyn's failure to ad-
dress anti-Semitism in the party and his poor Brexit policy. Three MPs belonging to May's
Conservative party have also quit to join the Independent Group. They complained that the
policies and priorities of the Tories are being defined by the hardline Euroskeptics in the
party.

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BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS

Britain's lead negotiator in the talks with Brussels was David Davis, a Yorkshire MP, until
July 9, 2018, when he resigned. He was replaced by housing minister Dominic Raab as
Brexit secretary. Raab resigned in protest over May's deal on November 15, 2018. He was re-
placed by health and social care minister Stephen Barclay the following day. 

Preparatory talks about talks exposed divisions in the two sides' approaches to the process.
The U.K. wanted to negotiate the terms of its withdrawal alongside the terms of its post-
Brexit relationship with Europe, while Brussels wanted to make sufficient progress on di-
vorce terms by October 2017, only then moving on to a trade deal. In a concession that both
pro- and anti-Brexit commentators took as a sign of weakness, British negotiators accepted
the EU's sequenced approach.

CITIZENS' RIGHTS

One of the most politically thorny issues facing Brexit negotiators has been the rights of EU
citizens living in the U.K. and U.K. citizens living in the EU.

The Withdrawal Agreement allows for the free movement of EU and U.K. citizens until the
end of the transition period. Following the transition period, they would keep their residency
rights if they continue to work, have sufficient resources, or are related to someone who does.
To upgrade their residence status to permanent, they would have to apply to the host nation.
The rights of these citizens can be abruptly taken away if Britain crashes out without ratifying
a deal.

EU citizens have been increasingly leaving the U.K. since the referendum. "EU net migra-
tion, while still adding to the population as a whole, has fallen to a level last seen in 2009. We
are also now seeing more EU8 citizens – those from Central and Eastern European countries,
for example, Poland – leaving the U.K. than arriving,” said Jay Lindop, Director of the Cen-
tre for International Migration, in a government quarterly report released in February 2019.

EU citizens in the UK

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Britain's Parliament fought over the rights of EU citizens to remain in the U.K. after Brexit,
publicly airing domestic divisions over migration. Following the referendum and Cameron's
resignation, May's government concluded that it had the right under the "royal prerogative" to
trigger Article 50 and begin the formal withdrawal process on its own. The British Supreme
Court intervened, ruling that Parliament had to authorize the measure, and the House of Lords
amended the resulting bill to guarantee the rights of EU-born residents. The House of Com-
mons – which had a Tory majority at the time – struck the amendment down and the una-
mended bill became law on March 16, 2017.

UK citizens in the EU

Conservative opponents of the amendment argued that unilateral guarantees eroded Britain's
negotiating position, while those in favor of it said EU citizens should not be used as "bar-
gaining chips." Economic arguments also featured: while a third of British expats in Europe
are pensioners, EU migrants are more likely to be in work than native-born Brits. That fact
suggests EU migrants are greater contributors to the economy than their British counterparts;
then again, "Leave" supporters read these data as pointing to foreign competition for scarce
jobs in Britain.

Brexit Financial Settlement

The "Brexit bill" is the financial settlement the U.K. owes Brussels following its withdrawal.

The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't mention a specific figure, but it is estimated to be up to

£39 billion, according to Downing Street. The total sum includes the financial contribution
the U.K. will make during the transition period since it will be acting as a member state of the
EU and its contribution toward the EU’s outstanding 2020 budget commitments.

The U.K. will also receive funding from EU programs during the transition period and a
share of its assets at the end of it, which includes the capital it paid into the European Invest-
ment Bank (EIB).

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A Dec. 2017 agreement resolved this long-standing sticking point that threatened to derail ne-
gotiations entirely. Barnier's team launched the first volley in May 2017 with the released of
a document listing the 70-odd entities it would take into account when tabulating the bill. The
Financial Times estimated that the gross amount requested would be €100 billion; net of cer-
tain U.K. assets, the final bill would be "in the region of €55bn to €75bn."

Davis' team, meanwhile, refused EU demands to submit the U.K.'s preferred methodology for
tallying the bill. In August, he told the BBC he would not commit to a figure by October, the
deadline for assessing "sufficient progress" on issues such as the bill. The following month he
told the House of Commons that Brexit bill negotiations could go on "for the full duration of
the negotiation.” Davis presented this refusal to the House of Lords as a negotiating tactic,
but domestic politics probably explain his reticence. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who
campaigned for Brexit, called EU estimates "extortionate" on July 11, 2017, and agreed with
a Tory MP that Brussels could "go whistle" if they wanted "a penny." 

In her September 2017 speech in Florence, however, May's spokesperson said the U.K.
would "honor commitments we have made during the period of our membership."

The Northern Irish Border

The Withdrawal Agreement includes an Irish backstop provision, which is a guarantee that
there will be no "hard border" between Northern Ireland and Ireland if a Brexit deal is not
passed in both the U.K. and EU Parliaments by the end of the transition period. It is an insur -
ance policy that keeps Britain in the EU customs union with Northern Ireland following EU
single market rules. The backstop, which is meant to temporary and will be superseded by a
subsequent agreement, can only be removed if both Britain and the EU give their consent.

The backstop has emerged as the main reason for the Brexit impasse. May was unable to gar-
ner enough support for her deal due to it. Euroskeptic MPs wanted her to add legally binding
changes as they feared it would compromise the country's autonomy and could last indefi-
nitely. EU leaders have so far refused to remove it and have also ruled out a time limit or
granting Britain the power to remove it. On March 11, 2019, the two sides signed a pact in

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Strasbourg that did not change the Withdrawal Agreement but added "meaningful legal assur-
ances." It wasn't enough to convince hardline Brexiteers.

For decades during the second half of the 20th century, violence between Protestants and
Catholics marred Northern Ireland, and the border between the British countryside and the
Republic of Ireland to the south was militarized. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement turned
the border almost invisible, except for speed limit signs, which switch from miles per hour in
the north to kilometers per hour in the south. 

Both British and EU negotiators worry about the consequences of reinstating border controls,
as Britain may have to do in order to end freedom of movement from the EU. Yet leaving the
customs union without imposing customs checks at the Northern Irish border or between
Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain leaves the door wide open for smuggling. This signif-
icant and unique challenge is one of the reasons that "soft Brexit" advocates most cite in fa-
vor of staying in the EU's customs union and perhaps its single market. In other words, the
Northern Ireland conundrum may have created a back door for a soft Brexit. 

The issue is further complicated by the Tories' choice of the Northern Irish Democratic
Unionist Party as a coalition partner: the DUP opposed the Good Friday Agreement and – un-
like the Conservatives' leader at the time – campaigned for Brexit. Under the Good Friday
Agreement, the British government is required to oversee Northern Ireland with "rigorous im-
partiality"; that may prove difficult for a government that depends on the cooperation of a
party with an overwhelmingly Protestant support base and historical connections to Protestant
paramilitary groups. Legal challenges to the Tory-DUP coalition agreement are reportedly
being prepared.

Arguments For and Against Brexit

"Leave" voters based their support for Brexit on a variety of factors, including the European
debt crisis, immigration, terrorism and the perceived drag of Brussels' bureaucracy on the
British economy. Britain has long been wary of the European Union's projects, which
Leavers feel threatens the U.K.'s sovereignty: the country never opted into the European
Union's monetary union, meaning that it uses the pound instead of the euro. It also remained

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outside the Schengen Area, meaning that it does not share open borders with a number of
other European nations.

Brexit: votes to leave EU

Opponents of Brexit also cite a number of rationales for their position. One is the risk in-
volved in pulling out of the EU's decision-making process, given that it is by far the largest
destination for British exports. Another is the economic and societal benefits of the EU's
"four freedoms": the free movement of goods, services, capital and people across borders. A
common thread in both arguments is that leaving the EU would destabilize the British econ-
omy in the short term and make the country poorer in the long term. In July of 2018, May's
cabinet suffered another shake-up when Boris Johnson resigned as the U.K.'s Foreign Minis-
ter and David Davis resigned as Brexit Minister over May's plans to keep close ties to the
EU. Johnson was replaced by Jeremy Hunt, who favors a soft Brexit.

Top destinations of British exports, 2016

Some state institutions backed the Remainers' economic arguments: Bank of England gover-

nor Mark Carney called Brexit "the biggest domestic risk to financial stability" in March
2016 and the following month the Treasury projected lasting damage to the economy under
any of three possible post-Brexit scenarios: European Economic Area (EEA) membership
such as Norway has; a negotiated trade deal such as the one signed between the EU and
Canada in October 2016; and World Trade Organization (WTO) membership.

THE ANNUAL IMPACT OF LEAVING THE EU ON THE UK AFTER 15 YEARS

(DIFFERENCE FROM BEING IN THE EU)

Negotiated bilateral
EEA WTO
agreement

GDP level – central -3.8% -6.2% -7.5%

GDP level -3.4% to -4.3% -4.6% to -7.8% -5.4% to -9.5%

GDP per capita –

-£ 1,100 -£ 1,800 -£ 2,100
central*

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 -£1,000 to - -£1,500 to -
GDP per capita* -£1,300 to -£2,200
£1,200 £2,700

GPD per household –

-£ 2,600 -£ 4,300 -£ 5,200
central*

-£2,400 to - -£3,700 to -
GDP per household* -£3,200 to -£5,400
£2,900 £6,600

Net impact on re-

-£20 billion -£36 billion -£45 billion
ceipts

Adapted from HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and
the alternatives, April 2016; *expressed in terms of 2015 GDP in 2015 prices, rounded to the
nearest £100.

Leave supporters tended to discount such economic projections under the label "Project
Fear." A pro-Brexit outfit associated with the U.K. Independence Party (UKIP), which was
founded to oppose EU membership, responded by saying that the Treasury's "worst-case sce-
nario of £4,300 per household is a bargain basement price for the restoration of national inde-
pendence and safe, secure borders." 

Although Leavers have tended to stress issues of national pride, safety, and sovereignty, they
also muster economic arguments. For example, Boris Johnson, who was mayor of London
until May 2016 and became Foreign Secretary when May took office, said on the eve of the
vote, "EU politicians would be banging down the door for a trade deal" the day after the vote,
in light of their "commercial interests." Labor Leave, the pro-Brexit Labour group, co-au-
thored a report with a group of economists in September 2017 that forecasted a 7% boost to
annual GDP, with the largest gains going to the lowest earners. 

Vote Leave, the official pro-Brexit campaign, topped the "Why Vote Leave" page on its web-
site with the claim that the U.K. could save £350 million per week: "we can spend our money
on our priorities like the NHS [National Health Service], schools, and housing." In May
2016, the U.K. Statistics Authority, an independent public body, said the figure is gross rather
than net, "is misleading and undermines trust in official statistics." A mid-June poll by Ipsos

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MORI, however, found that 47% of the country believed the claim. The day after the referen-
dum, Nigel Farage, who co-founded UKIP and led it until that November, disavowed the fig-
ure and said that he was not closely associated with Vote Leave. May has also declined to
confirm Vote Leave's NHS promises since taking office.
Brexit Economic Response

Until an exit deal is finalized or the deadline for negotiations set by Article 50 expires,
Britain remains in
the EU, both benefiting from its trade links and subject to its laws and regulations.

Even so, the decision to leave the EU has had an effect on Britain's economy.

The country's GDP growth slowed down to around 1.5% in 2018 from 1.8% in 2017 and
1.9% in 2016 as business investment slumped. The IMF predicts that the country's economy
will grow at 1.5% in 2019 and 2020. The Bank of England cut its growth forecast for 2019 to
1.2%, the lowest since the financial crisis.

The U.K. unemployment rate hit a 44-year low at 3.9% in the three months to January 2019.
Experts attribute this to employers preferring to retain workers instead of investing in new
major projects.

In 2018, the pound managed to claw back the losses it suffered after the Brexit vote but re-
acted negatively as the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit increased. The currency could rally if a
"soft Brexit" deal is passed or Brexit is delayed.

While the fall in the value of the pound has helped exporters, the higher price of imports
passed onto consumers and has had a significant impact on the annual inflation rate. CPI in-
flation hit 3.1% in the 12 months leading up to November 2017, a near six-year high that well
exceeded the Bank of England's 2% target. Inflation eventually began to fall in 2018 with the
decline in oil and gas prices and was at 1.8% in January 2019.
UK inflation, 10 years

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A July 2017 report by the House of Lords cited evidence that British businesses would have
to raise wages to attract native-born workers following Brexit, which is "likely to lead to
higher prices for consumers." 

International trade is expected to fall due to Brexit, even if Britain negotiates a raft of free
trade deals. Dr. Monique Ebell, former associate research director at the National Institute of
Economic and Social Research, forecasts a -22% reduction in total British goods and services
trade if EU membership is replaced by a free trade agreement. Other free trade agreements
could probably not take up the slack: Ebell sees a pact with the BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, In-
dia, Indonesia, China, and South Africa) boosting total trade by 2.2%; a pact with the U.S.,
Canada, Australia and New Zealand would do slightly better, at 2.6%. 

"The single market is a very deep and comprehensive trade agreement aimed at reducing non-
tariff barriers," Ebell wrote in January 2017, "while most non-EU [free trade agree-
ments] seem to be quite ineffective at reducing the non-tariff barriers that are important for
services trade.”

June 2017 General Election

On April 18, May called for a snap election to be held on June 8, despite previous promises
not to hold one until 2020. Polling at the time suggested May would expand on her slim Par-
liamentary majority of 330 seats (there are 650 seats in the Commons). Labor gained rapidly
in the polls, however, aided by an embarrassing Tory flip-flop on a proposal for estates to
fund end-of-life care. 

The Conservatives lost their majority, winning 318 seats to Labor's 262. The Scottish Na-
tional Party won 35, with other parties taking 35. The resulting hung Parliament cast doubts
on May's mandate to negotiate Brexit and led the leaders of Labor and the Liberal Democrats
to call on May to resign.

2017 election results

Speaking in front of the Prime Minister's residence at 10 Downing Street, May batted away
calls for her to leave her post, saying, "It is clear that only the Conservative and Unionist

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Party" – the Tories' official name – "has the legitimacy and ability to provide that certainty by
commanding a majority in the House of Commons." The Conservatives struck a deal with the
Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, which won 10 seats, to form a coalition. The
party is little known outside of Northern Ireland, judging by a wave of curious Google
searches that caused the DUP's site to crash.

May presented the election as a chance for the Conservatives to solidify their mandate and
strengthen their negotiating position with Brussels. But this backfired.

"The election served to diffuse, not concentrate political power, especially with regards to
Brexit," wrote Sky News political correspondent Lewis Goodall. "Ever since election night,
Brussels hasn't just been dealing with Number 10 but in effect, the House of Commons too."

In the wake of the election, many expected the government's Brexit position to soften, and
they were right. May released a Brexit white paper in July 2018 that mentioned an "associa-
tion agreement" and a free-trade area for goods with the EU. David Davis resigned as Brexit
secretary and Boris Johnson resigned as Foreign Secretary in protest.

But the election also increased the possibility of a no deal Brexit. As the Financial Times pre-
dicted, the result made May more vulnerable to pressure from Euroskeptics and her coalition
partners. We are seeing this play out with the Irish backstop tussle. With her position weak-
ened, May struggled to unite her party behind her deal and keep control of Brexit.

THE PROS AND CONS OF BREXIT

Arguments presented during the referendum campaign covered politics, economics and na-
tional identity:

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MEMBERSHIP FEE

Brexiteers argued that leaving the EU would result in an immediate cost saving, as the coun-
try would no longer contribute to the EU budget. In 2016, Britain paid in £13.1bn, but it also
received £4.5bn worth of spending, said Full Fact, “so the UK’s net contribution was
£8.5bn”.
What was harder to determine was whether the financial advantages of EU membership, such
as free trade and inward investment, outweighed the upfront costs.

TRADE

The EU is a single market in which imports and exports between member states are exempt
from tariffs and other barriers. Services, including financial services, can also be offered
without restriction across the continent. The consequences of Brexit for businesses that took
advantage of these freedoms was always a matter of debate and conjecture.

Outside the EU, said Remainers, the UK would lose the benefits of free trade with neighbours
and reduce its negotiating power with the rest of the world. Brexiteers, meanwhile, said the
UK could compensate for those disadvantages by establishing its own trade agreements - and
that most small and medium-sized firms, which have never traded overseas, would be freed
of the regulatory burden that comes with EU membership.
Brexit campaigners proposed several different models for post-EU trade policy. Boris John-
son, for one, favoured an arrangement based on Canada’s free trade treaty: “I think we can
strike a deal as the Canadians have done based on trade and getting rid of tariffs” and have a
“very, very bright future”, he said.
Before the referendum, Nigel Farage suggested maintaining even closer economic links with
the EU, replicating Norway or Switzerland’s position. But, said The Economist, “if Britain
were to join the Norwegian club, it would remain bound by virtually all EU regulations, in-
cluding the working-time directive and almost everything dreamed up in Brussels in future.”
Meanwhile it would no longer have any influence on what those regulations said.
Farage has since cooled on the Norwegian model, and now favours no deal at all - which
would result in the introduction of tariffs under World Trade Organization rules. So too does
Johnson.

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INVESTMENT

Pro-Europeans argued that the UK’s status as one of the world’s biggest financial centres
would be diminished if the City of London was no longer seen as a gateway to the EU for the
likes of US banks. They also said financial firms based in the UK would lose “passporting”
rights to work freely across the continent.
Business for New Europe said tax revenues would drop if companies carrying out large
amounts of business with Europe - particularly banks - moved their headquarters back into
the EU. Fears that carmakers could scale back or even end production in the UK if vehicles
could no longer be exported tax-free to Europe were underlined by BMW’s decision, in 2016,
to remind its UK employees at Rolls-Royce and Mini of the “significant benefit” EU mem-
bership conferred.
But Brexit supporters were adamant that a deal to allow continued tariff-free trading would
be secured even if the UK left the single market. Britain had a large trade deficit with the EU,
they said, and so it would be in Europe’s interest to find a compromise - for goods and finan -
cial services. Others suggested that Britain could cut links with Europe and reinvent itself as a
Singapore-style economy, free from EU rules and regulations.
Since the Brexit vote, many banks and financial firms have been establishing EU bases to
take some staff out of the UK - although most seem likely to maintain the majority of their
British operations. Car-makers have fared less well - Honda is closing its Swindon plant, Nis-
san has abandoned plans to build a new model in Sunderland and Jaguar Land Rover is cut-
ting thousands of jobs - but non-Brexit-related factors have also played a part in this gloomy
outcome.

SOVEREIGNTY

For Brexiteers, sovereignty was seen as a simple win: even the most ardent Remainers had to
admit that EU membership involved giving up some control over domestic affairs.
Pro-Brexit Labour MP Kate Hoey said at the time that the EU was “an attempt to replace the
democratic power of the people with a permanent administration in the interests of big busi-
ness”. Those on the right of the Conservative party might have disagreed with her emphasis,
but they shared the view that EU institutions drained power from the UK parliament. For

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Leavers, exiting the EU would allow Britain to re-establish itself as a truly independent na-
tion with connections to the rest of the world.
For Remainers, it would result in the country giving up its influence in Europe, turning back
the clock and retreating from the global power networks of the 21st century. To them, EU
membership involved a worthwhile exchange of sovereignty for influence: in return for
agreeing to abide by EU rules, they said, Britain had a seat around the negotiating table and
its voice was amplified on the world stage as a result.
“The truth is that pulling up the drawbridge and quitting the EU will not enhance our national
sovereignty,” said Labour’s Hilary Benn, before the referendum. “All it would do is to
weaken it by taking away our power to influence events in an ever more complex and interde-
pendent world.” Nor, said Remainers, would UK sovereignty be absolute outside the EU: the
British government would still be bound by membership of Nato, the UN, the WTO and vari-
ous treaties and agreements with other nations.
Although Brexit would bring some clear-cut advantages, said The Economist, the UK might
well find itself “a scratchy outsider with somewhat limited access to the single market, almost
no influence and few friends”.

IMMIGRATION
Under EU law, Britain could not prevent a citizen of another member state from coming to
live in the UK, and Britons benefited from an equivalent right to live and work anywhere else
in the bloc. The result was a huge increase in immigration into Britain, particularly from east-
ern and southern Europe.
According to the Office for National Statistics, in 2016 there were 942,000 eastern Euro-
peans, Romanians and Bulgarians working in the UK, along with 791,000 western Europeans
and 2.93m workers from outside the EU. China and India were the biggest source of foreign
workers in the UK.
Many Remainers acknowledged that the pace of immigration had led to some difficulties
with housing and service provision, but said the net effect had been overwhelmingly positive.
By contrast, Brexiteers said Britain should “regain control” of its borders. Most wanted a sub-
stantial cut in immigration, although some said it was less about numbers than the principle
of national sovereignty.

JOBS

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Pro-EU campaigners put economic security at the heart of their message, claiming three mil-
lion jobs would be lost if Britain voted to leave. But Brexiteers branded the campaign
“Project Fear”, dismissing it as a collection of gloomy fantasies.
Those two simple positions masked a complex debate about economic forecasts and employ-
ment rates, which intersected with arguments about trade policy and migration.
Take immigration, for example. Fewer people coming to the country would mean less com-
petition for jobs among those who remained and, potentially, higher wages - a point conceded
by Stuart Rose, leader of the pro-Remain Britain Stronger in Europe campaign. “But that is
not necessarily a good thing,” Rose said, as labour shortages and rising wage bills could re-
duce economic competitiveness and growth.
Reduced immigration could also cause damaging skills shortages in the UK workforce, said
Remainers, as well as dampen demand for goods and services. Writing for the London School
of Economics, Professor Adrian Favell said limiting freedom of movement would deter the
“brightest and the best” of the continent from coming to Britain. Brexiteers, meanwhile, said
Britain could tailor its post-Brexit immigration policy to the needs of the economy.
It remains unclear how Brexit will affect the jobs market. Economic growth has slowed since
the referendum, but employment remains high - and what happens next will depend largely
on what sort of trading relationship the UK seeks with the EU and the rest of the world, and
what they say in response.
“Figures from the early 2000s suggest around three million jobs are linked to trade with the
European Union”, says Full Fact, but “they don’t say they are dependent on the UK being an
EU member”. If trade falls, and the slack is not picked up elsewhere, then some of those jobs
will be lost - but that is not a foregone conclusion.

SECURITY

Former work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith, who was in favour of Brexit, said
Britain was leaving the “door open” to terrorist attacks by remaining in the EU. “This open
border does not allow us to check and control people,” he argued.
However, several senior military figures, including former chiefs of defence staff Lord Bra-
mall and Jock Stirrup, argued the opposite. In a letter released by No 10 during the campaign,
they said the EU was an “increasingly important pillar of our security”, especially at a time of
instability in the Middle East and in the face of “resurgent Russian nationalism and aggres-
sion”.

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Michael Fallon, who was defence secretary at the time, said the UK benefited from being part
of the EU, as well as Nato and the UN. “It is through the EU that you exchange criminal
records and passenger records and work together on counter-terrorism,” he said. “We need
the collective weight of the EU when you are dealing with Russian aggression or terrorism.”
By contrast, Colonel Richard Kemp, a former head of the international terrorism team at the
Cabinet Office, said in The Times that these “critical bilateral relationships” would persist re-
gardless of membership, and that it was “absurd” to suggest that the EU would put its own
citizens, or the UK’s, at greater risk by reducing cooperation in the event of Brexit.
Since the Brexit vote, the Government has said it will work to maintain security relationships
with the EU. “In today’s uncertain world we need that shared strength more than ever,” said
Andrew Parker, the head of MI5, in May 2018. “I hope for a comprehensive and enduring
agreement that tackles obstacles and allows professionals to get on with the job together.”

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