Francis Fukuyama and the Case of China’s

developments

Course Code: PS1101E

Year of study: Year 1

Question: Francis Fukuyama cited the case of China in supporting his ‘end of history’ thesis
in 1989. Do the political and economic developments in the country over the last 2 decades or
so still support his theory? Why or why not.

Francis Fukuyama, in his ‘end of history’ thesis, stated how politically, Marxism had already

‘become virtually irrelevant as guides to policy’1, and that in the future, it was likely to

become obsolete. In addition to this, he stated how China was only paying lip service to

communism and hence it was only a matter of time before it changes to democracy, while

harsh crackdowns by the government were just processes it had to undergo in order to transit

to democracy. On the other hand, on the economic side, he stated how liberal democracy

needed to be adopted by a country before it could bring about wealth and progress. Lastly, he

1
Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History and the Last Man. (New York: Free Press,
1992), p. 118
had predicted how China would end up transiting to democracy in the end as there would be

an increasing pressure and desire from the people for a truly democratic system. With regards

to what Fukuyama stated about China in his thesis, this essay would hence require a

comparison of the political and economic developments in China over the last two decades

with Fukuyama’s statements to evaluate if China’s developments had supported his theory.

However, this essay seeks to argue that the political and economic developments in China

have not supported his theory. This is because over the past two decades, the Chinese

Communist Party has strengthened their rule even more through authoritarian measures, and

shows that it has no intention of adopting the Western style of democracy. In addition to this,

China has managed to achieve stunning economic growth through their adoption of a

capitalistic economy, even without any sort of political liberalization. Though many may

argue how economic liberalization have contributed to rising protests, it is proven that only a

minority desires political liberalization, while the majority of protestors care only for

solutions to their economic problems. Hence, this shows how Fukuyama’s argument does not

hold true for the developments in China at all, as it is clearly seen how China’s ruling under

Communism shows no sign of waning, even though economic liberalization is allowed to

flourish beside it.

Political developments in China over the past two decades does not support Fukuyama’s

theory as it is seen how China still has no intention to adopt the western democratic system of

governance. Instead, China has only been growing stronger in trying to consolidate her one-

party authoritarian rule under the name of communism through various measures. Firstly, it

can be seen that for the past two decades, communism as a goal and as a way of governance
has never changed but is still enduring. 2 The Chinese Communist Party continue its

authoritarian one-party rule through not allowing any form of election or expression of public

opinion about its rule. From the late 2000s, the party published a list of political changes they

did not want, which included ‘no bicameral parliamentary systems…no constitutionalism,

and, most potent of all, no multi party systems.’3 Through this, the party makes it very clear

that no political space would be given for any democratic measures. Rather, it establishes

itself as the ultimate power that can make decisions concerning the country. This is because

the party leaders are worried that the introduction of any measure of political democracy can

cost them their monopoly on power.4 In addition to this, tight measures are used by the

Chinese Communist Party to repress any form of what it deems as a threat to its rule. Hence,

contrary to what Fukuyama stated in his argument, political crackdowns are not a procedure

China undertakes in its transition to democracy. Rather, they are used to consolidate China’s

authoritarian rule under a communist system. This is seen in the recent crackdowns on

political activism. After 2005, the increasing number of political crackdowns implemented

resulted in the intimidation and persecution of political activists and even civil rights

defenders5, such as Ai Wei Wei and Lu Xia Bo6, who were accused of committing political

crimes, which included charges of undermining or challenging the political authority of the

party and calling for secession and democracy. By 2006, there were 604 arrests made, which

2
Chün, Chao Kuo. "Leadership in the Chinese Communist Party." The Annals of the American Academy of
Political and Social Science, Vol. 321, Contemporary China and the Chinese 321.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/1030978, p. 2
3
Kerry Brown, A response to Francis Fukuyama’s ‘reflections on Chinese governance’, Journal of Chinese
Governance, (August 2016), p.393

4
Zheng, Yongnian. "Political Incrementalism: Political Lessons from China's 20 Years of Reform." Third
World Quarterly 20, no. 6 (1999): 1157-177. doi:10.1080/01436599913343,
pg 1160
5
Chen, Titus C. "China’s Reaction to the Coloured Revolutions: Adaptive Authoritarianism in Full Swing."
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010. Accessed October 8, 2016. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1487597, p. 44
6
"China's Rights Defenders." Human Rights Watch. 2012. Accessed November 03, 2016.
https://www.hrw.org/chinas-rights-defenders.
was double the number in 2005.7 These statistics show how China does not tolerate any

person or movement that is seeking for political reform8 and does not hesitate to use harsh

measures eliminate anyone who might be successful in challenging its power. Furthermore,

the party seeks to consolidate its political rule and support through increasing their

intervention in the media. Between 2005 to 2006, book publishers, broadcasting channels, and

the newspapers were ordered to reject any ‘political viewpoints that were harmful to the

socialist political system’, and to only support the party. 9To make sure this was adhered to,

the party persecuted those who were uncooperative, and this led to the sacking of two editors

of the popular newspaper XinJingBao, for publishing essays critical of the government. 10

Therefore, all these examples show how Fukuyama’s statements about China does not hold.

He had stated how communism as a political ideology was destined to wane and that it would

only be a matter of time before China would adopt the liberal democratic system. However,

developments in China have proven him completely wrong. China’s refusal to adopt any

political liberalization measures and the increasing elimination of any threats to its rule, along

with measures to consolidate its rule through the media, affirm how China would not be

transiting to democracy any time soon but would continue to be governed under communism.

Economic developments in China over the last two decades have also disproved Fukuyama’s

argument about China. This is because Fukuyama stated how a country first needed to adopt

7
Chen, Titus C. "China’s Reaction to the Coloured Revolutions: Adaptive Authoritarianism in Full Swing."
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010. Accessed October 8, 2016. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1487597, p. 44
8
Zheng, Yongnian. "Political Incrementalism: Political Lessons from China's 20 Years of Reform." Third
World Quarterly 20, no. 6 (1999): 1157-177. doi:10.1080/01436599913343,
p. 1174
9
Chen, Titus C. "China’s Reaction to the Coloured Revolutions: Adaptive Authoritarianism in Full Swing."
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010. Accessed October 8, 2016. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1487597, p. 40
10
Chen, Titus C. "China’s Reaction to the Coloured Revolutions: Adaptive Authoritarianism in Full Swing."
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010. Accessed October 8, 2016. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1487597, p. 44
liberal democracy before wealth and progress could be brought about. However, China’s

ability to govern through a hybrid model, 11through adopting a state-managed capitalistic

economic system while having a communist authoritarian state at the same time, show how it

is possible to deliver wealth and progress in the economic realm without delivering progress

in the political realm. 12The adoption of economic liberalization is seen in the openness of the

China economy, where foreign investment is increasingly welcomed to develop its economy.

By the 2000s, foreign capital had control over 21 leading industrial companies in China. 13

Due to the investment of foreign capital, China has transformed into an export-oriented

country, and is now of the biggest exporter of computers and other technological goods. 14

This has led to China becoming the world’s second largest economy, with their growth in

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) being close to 10 percent for the past two decades. 15 China

has also adopted the price mechanism for their economy, hence State-Owned Enterprises in

China now ‘respond to market incentives and are profit-driven’, compared to the early 1990s

when they were still not liberalized. 16 However, as stated above, though the economy is

increasingly liberalized, the reason why the Chinese communist party is still able to sustain its

authoritarian rule under the name of communism is because the capitalism that the party

implements is very state-managed. Hence, the Chinese Communist Party, being the biggest

11
Kerry Brown, A response to Francis Fukuyama’s ‘reflections on Chinese governance’, Journal of Chinese
Governance, (August 2016), p. 403

12
Kerry Brown, A response to Francis Fukuyama’s ‘reflections on Chinese governance’, Journal of Chinese
Governance, (August 2016), p. 401

13
Lotta, Raymond. "Shifts And Faultlines In The World Economy And Great Power Rivalry: What Is
Happening And What It Might Mean." Countercurrents. August 5, 2008.
http://www.countercurrents.org/lotta050808.htm.

14
Ibid.

15
Ibid.

16
Appel, Tiago Nasser. "Just How Capitalist Is China? - Scielo.br." SciELO Brazil. December 2014. Accessed
November 3, 2016. http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572014000400009.
player in the market, continue to monopolistically control resources in the market.17 The party

continues to bring encourage growth in the economy through providing some public goods

such as education and investing in infrastructure, but not allowing the ‘provision of key public

goods’18, such as press freedom and political rights ‘that would allow potential challengers to

coordinate and mobilize.’19 Therefore, this explains the regime’s durability despite pressure

for political reform. By controlling the resources and benefits that capitalism brings to

society, the party effectively stymies any opportunity for political liberalization while

allowing for economic liberalization to happen under its watch. Another example to show

how capitalism in China is very state-managed was the establishment of the SASAC (State-

owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission) in 2003. The SASAC was

established to ‘exercise ownership of state firms in every province’. This means that the

government still effectively owned all these enterprises and could therefore control how state

resources and public goods and services were to be allocated to the society20 so as to prevent

any provision of goods that could damage the party’s political legitimacy. All these examples

hence show how though China has obtained phenomenal economic success through

embracing elements of capitalism, yet by keeping the development of its increasingly

capitalistic economy tightly under its control, the party retains its monopoly on power,

thereby disproving Fukuyama’s argument by showing how it is possible to ‘have wealth

without freedom’. 21

17
Gore, Lance L.P. The Chinese Communist Party and China's Capitalist Revolution: The Political Impact of
the Market. (Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2011), p. 21
18
Dimitrov, Martin K. Why Communism Did Not Collapse. 1st ed. (Cambridge University Press, 2013),p. 198
19
Ibid.
20
"Socialism Today - China's Hybrid Economy." Socialism Today - China's Hybrid Economy. October 2008.
http://www.socialismtoday.org/122/hybrid.html, cited in Barry Naughton, “Growing out of the Plan: Chinese
Economic Reform, 1978-1993.”, Vol. 55, no. 1 (1996), p. 318
21
Stanley, Timothy, and Alexander Lee. "It's Still Not the End of History." Editorial. The Atlantic's Politics &
Policy Daily, September 1, 2014. September 1, 2014. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/09/its-
still-not-the-end-of-history-francis-fukuyama/379394/, p. 3
 In spite of the arguments made above, many may argue that some political developments

that have happened in China over the last two decades show how Fukuyama’s arguments are

not entirely wrong. This is because the increase in protests may signal how China’s citizens

want democracy. However, evidence has been found to prove that Fukuyama’s argument

wrong, as there is actually no increasing democratizing trend in China. This is because the

idea of democracy; the idea of civil rights and liberty, is not being desired by the majority of

the population. Firstly, there has been very few signs of China’s citizens demanding for

democratization,22 as the ideology of democracy has yet to ‘acquire moral value in the

Chinese political culture’23. Hence, this means that democracy has not won over the hearts of

the people and is still not significant enough to them. Though there has been an increase in

protests after China took on a more capitalistic economic system, most of them were only

about ‘bread-and-butter issues’ and had little association with calls for democracy. This lack

of enthusiasm for democracy can be attributed to the responsiveness of the CCP towards

popular opinions and various demands by the society, hence quelling any calls for

democratization. 24 In addition to this, it has been observed that the Chinese are becoming

more practical. Compared to the 1990s, there has been very little pressure for the CCP to

undergo any sort of political reform. 25Hence, instead of being concerned with attaining

democracy for their country, they are more interested in capitalizing on the wealth of

opportunities brought about by China’s economic liberalization and preserving peace and

harmony in their country. 56% of Beijing residents in a survey conducted stated how they felt

that national peace and prosperity was most important for the country, compared to political

22
Stanley, Timothy, and Alexander Lee. "It's Still Not the End of History." Editorial. The Atlantic's Politics &
Policy Daily, September 1, 2014. September 1, 2014. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/09/its-
still-not-the-end-of-history-francis-fukuyama/379394/, p.138-139
23
Ibid.
24
Ibid
25
Zhao, Suisheng. China and Democracy: The Prospect for a Democratic China. (New York: Routledge,
2000), p. 12
democracy which was only desired by 5.8% of the citizens. 26 Furthermore, results from a

survey conducted on university students that asked them which was the most important issue

that needed to be addressed politically, showed that having a clean government was the most

important to them, while to have democratic ideals such as civil liberty and rights were the

least important, as it garnered only 6% of the votes. 27These results therefore reflect how

political liberalization are no longer desired in majority of the citizens, rather, with economic

liberalization, many citizens, especially students, prioritize commercial activities28 rather than

achieving political goals of democracy and freedom. Hence, they have made calls for

democracy secondary to their personal pursuits. With an increasing ‘apathetic attitude’29

towards political liberation by the people, any sort of political reform leading to a transition

towards democracy will not be happening anytime soon in China.

In conclusion, it can be seen that the political and economic developments that have shaped

China over the past two decades have not supported Fukuyama’s predictions made about her

in his ‘end of history’ thesis. Instead of what he predicted of communism waning as a political

system and China having to transit towards democracy, the Chinese Communist Party has

very strongly consolidated her authoritarian rule under the name of communism by

suppressing all calls and attempts that may threaten their hold on power. In addition to this,

they are seen to be only paying lip service to democracy, while firmly believing that the

western democratic system would never be suitable for China. Economic developments have

also shown the unique hybrid system China has developed for herself, by proving how a

capitalistic economy can be possible even without any sort of political liberalization.
26
Zhao, Suisheng. China and Democracy: The Prospect for a Democratic China. (New York: Routledge,
2000), p. 194
27
Zhao, Suisheng. China and Democracy: The Prospect for a Democratic China. (New York: Routledge,
2000), p. 217
28
Zhao, Suisheng. China and Democracy: The Prospect for a Democratic China. (New York: Routledge,
2000), p. 223
29
Ibid.
Furthermore, China is seen being even further from achieving democracy due to the people

increasingly changing their focus from wanting to achieve political liberalization to desiring

to achieve their own personal goals instead. Therefore, China’s unique case brings about some

hope that the ‘end of history’ has not yet come, as western liberal democracy is still not the

type of ideology some countries, especially China, see as the best for themselves.

Word count: 2069 words

Bibliography

Appel, Tiago Nasser. "Just How Capitalist Is China? - Scielo.br." SciELO Brazil.
December 2014. Accessed November 3, 2016. http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?
script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-31572014000400009.

Barry Naughton, “Growing out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 1978-1993.”.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.

Chen, Titus C. "China’s Reaction to the Coloured Revolutions:

Adaptive Authoritarianism in Full Swing." SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010.

China's Rights Defenders." Human Rights Watch. 2012.

Accessed November 03, 2016. https://www.hrw.org/chinas-rights-defenders.

Chün, Chao Kuo. "Leadership in the Chinese Communist Party."

The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 321,
Contemporary China and the Chinese 321. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1030978
Dimitrov, Martin K. Why Communism Did Not Collapse.
1st ed. Cambridge University Press, 2013.

Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History and the Last Man.

New York: Free Press, 1992

Gore, Lance L.P. The Chinese Communist Party and China's Capitalist Revolution:
The Political Impact of the Market. Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2011.

Kerry Brown, A response to Francis Fukuyama’s ‘reflections on Chinese governance’,

Journal of Chinese Governance, (August 2016)

Lotta, Raymond. "Shifts And Faultlines In The World Economy And Great Power Rivalry:
What Is Happening And What It Might Mean." Countercurrents.
August 5, 2008. http://www.countercurrents.org/lotta050808.htm.

Stanley, Timothy, and Alexander Lee. "It's Still Not the End of History." Editorial.

The Atlantic's Politics & Policy Daily, September 1, 2014. September 1, 2014.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/09/its-still-not-the-end-of-history-
francis-fukuyama/379394/

"Socialism Today - China's Hybrid Economy."

Socialism Today - China's Hybrid Economy. October 2008.
http://www.socialismtoday.org/122/hybrid.html

Zhao, Suisheng. China and Democracy:

The Prospect for a Democratic China. New York: Routledge, 2000.

Zheng, Yongnian. "Political Incrementalism:

Political Lessons from China's 20 Years of Reform." Third World Quarterly 20, no. 6
(1999): 1157-177. doi:10.1080/01436599913343