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Assuming domestic containment measures are gradually relaxed, with return to normality during
the second half of the year, output in the EBRD regions is projected to contract on average by 3.5
per cent in 2020 followed by a recovery in 2021, with an average growth rate of 4.8 per cent in
2021. While this scenario assumes a modest impact of the crisis on the long‐term trajectory of
output, the pandemic may have significant longer-term economic, political and social impacts.
These estimates are subject to unprecedented uncertainty. If social distancing remains in place
for much longer than anticipated, the recession may be much deeper, with the 2019 levels of
output per capita not attained again for years to come.
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Eastern Europe and the Caucasus 3.0 2.8 -4.3 4.3 -7.2
Armenia 5.2 7.6 -3.5 5.5 -8.5
Azerbaijan 1.4 2.2 -3.0 3.0 -5.4
Belarus 3.0 1.2 -5.0 3.5 -6.2
Georgia 4.7 5.1 -5.5 5.5 -10.0
Moldova 4.0 3.6 -4.0 5.0 -8.0
Ukraine 3.3 3.2 -4.5 5.0 -8.0
Memo: Egypt (fiscal year ending June) 5.3 5.6 2.5 3.0 -3.4
Note: 'e' i ndi ca tes unoffi ci a l es ti ma tes . Avera ges a re wei ghted by economi es ' nomi na l GDP i n US dol l a rs a t PPP.
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Output is expected to contract in 2020 distancing remains in place for much longer
Chart 3. Average quarterly growth in the EBRD than anticipated, job losses may be
regions (year-on-year, per cent) widespread and recovery sluggish, with the
2019 levels of output per capita not being
attained for years to come (see Chart 5).
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Real GDP growth in Kazakhstan accelerated GDP growth in the Kyrgyz Republic
from 4.1 to 4.5 per cent in 2019 on the back accelerated to 4.5 per cent in 2019 from 3.8
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per cent in 2018, supported by a strong mining). The pandemic exposed Mongolia’s
recovery in gold production. Remittances key vulnerabilities: extreme dependence on
decreased by 14 per cent year-on-year in US China as its main export market (accounting
dollar terms in 2019, but their share in GDP for 93 per cent of total exports in 2019), and
remains high at 28 per cent. With travel a narrow specialization in exports of copper,
restrictions in place and bleaker economic coal and gold. Within the first three months of
prospects in Russia, the Kyrgyz Republic 2020, exports declined by around 42 per
faces a significant reduction in remittances. cent year-on-year (with coal exports
Strict lockdown measures, introduced in late- contracting by 62 per cent) as a result of
March, are expected to last until mid-May weaker demand and partial border closure
2020, further weighing on domestic demand. for freight cargo. Partial lockdown measures
In addition, the border with China was closed involved the closures of most public places
since early February and only partially re- from mid-February till end-April, significantly
opened, resulting in declining imports from constraining household demand. The
China, which will hit domestic production negative impact of the coronavirus will also
relying on China-made inputs and weigh on be felt via declining tourism receipts (in
re-exports. Facing balance of payment 2019, tourism accounted for about 11 per
pressures, the Kyrgyz Republic has seen its cent of GDP). The Mongolian government’s
currency depreciating by 13 per cent ability to provide significant stimulus to the
between February and April 2020, after 3 economy is hampered by high debt levels
years of relatively stable exchange rates. (public and external debt reached 73 per cent
Given low international reserves (2.5 months and 220 per cent of GDP, respectively, in
of current account payments), limited fiscal 2019). Overall, Mongolia’s GDP is expected
space and a significant debt overhang, the to contract by 1.0 per cent in 2020. The
Kyrgyz Republic was the first country to economy is forecast to return to growth (6.0
receive emergency assistance from the per cent) in 2021 on the back of a strong
International Monetary Fund (IMF; US$ 120.9 recovery in China’s demand as well as
million). In the first quarter of 2020, domestic private consumption and
economic growth was still positive, at 1.5 per investment.
cent year-on-year, thanks to robust
performance in the mining industry. However, Tajikistan
a contraction of 4.0 per cent is expected in
2020, due to subdued domestic demand and Tajikistan’s real GDP expanded by 7.5 per
losses in the SME sector, which accounts for cent in 2019, up from 7.3 per cent in 2018.
41.5 per cent of GDP. In 2021, the economy On the demand side, growth was driven by
is forecast to achieve a 5.5 per cent GDP household consumption, which continues to
growth as remittances partially recover, re- be financed by remittances (32 per cent of
exports pick up and gold exports increase 2019 GDP, mainly from Russia). Private
due to additional production from the Jerooy consumption was also boosted by a pickup in
gold mine. credit expansion, growing 12 per cent year-
on-year in December 2019 (versus 2 per cent
Mongolia a year ago), partly thanks to a successful
credit bureau reform. Demand conditions are
Economic growth in Mongolia moderated to expected to significantly worsen in 2020,
5.1 per cent in 2019 from 7.2 per cent in with the pandemic triggering border closures
2018 on account of a weaker contribution and limiting Tajikistan’s access to the
from mining. Growth continued to be driven Russian labour market and hence weighing
by private consumption and investment on remittances. The already strained public
(primarily foreign direct investment into finances will deteriorate further in light of
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reduced tax receipts while the country is in 2020, and 6.0 per cent in 2021 supported
facing a significant debt overhang and high by a recovery in China’s demand for gas.
cost of ambitious infrastructure projects,
including the Rogun hydropower plant. Given Uzbekistan
limited foreign exchange reserves (worth 1.9
months of current account payments) and In 2019, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 5.6 per
large fiscal and balance of payments deficits, cent, slightly accelerating from 5.4 per cent in
the government submitted an official request 2018. In the first quarter of 2020, the
for emergency assistance from the IMF. With economy expanded by 4.1 per cent but is
the first coronavirus cases declared only in likely to contract in the second quarter as the
late April 2020, no strict containment impact of virus containment measures
measures have been imposed at the time of (lasting for at least two months) kicks in.
writing. The economy is expected to contract Exports declined by 11 per cent year-on-year
by 1.0 per cent in 2020. In 2021, real GDP is in the first three months of 2020, despite
forecast to grow by 5 per cent, supported by being much more diversified in terms of
recovery in Russia and China. products and markets compared to other
countries in Central Asia. Commodity exports
Turkmenistan constituted about 50 per cent of Uzbekistan’s
total exports in 2019, with gold, which
In Turkmenistan, GDP growth reached 6.3 accounts for more than a half of those,
per cent in 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 providing a natural hedge in turbulent times.
(year-on-year). According to the IMF, fiscal China was Uzbekistan’s largest export market
and external accounts improved in 2018- in 2019, but its share in total exports was
2019 in line with fiscal consolidation and only 14 per cent (mostly gas). Rapid
import substitution measures undertaken by expansion in credit to the private sector (up
the authorities. Turkmenistan still depends 26 per cent year-on-year in December 2019)
on China for most of its gas exports (more is a source of vulnerability given higher
than 90 per cent in 2018). The spread of the probability of businesses defaulting at a time
coronavirus has caused Chinese gas imports of a major slowdown in the economy, with
to decline by 17 per cent year-on-year in the negative implications for the stability of the
first two months of 2020, and in March they banking system. Remittances from Russia
were suspended altogether. Turkmenistan’s (accounting for 8 per cent of GDP) are
economy as a whole will be hit by a reduction expected to shrink affecting the most
in the value of its gas exports. Reduced vulnerable parts of the population. In
foreign exchange inflows have already addition, the tourism and hospitality sector
translated into tighter foreign exchange (about 6 per cent of GDP), will be among the
regulations, interfering with private-sector hardest hit by coronavirus-related
activities. The government introduced disruptions. GDP is still expected to grow in
restrictions on the internal and external 2020, albeit at a modest rate of 1.5 per cent.
movement of citizens but refrained from Much stronger growth performance, of 6.5
imposing a strict lockdown that would have per cent, is expected in 2021, reflecting a
disrupted business activities. Overall, the recovery in both exports and domestic
economy is expected to grow by 1.0 per cent demand.
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phase of the global coronavirus crisis in late- introduced a number of lockdown measures,
January 2020 hit selected industries, such as with tough restrictions on travel and
electronics, which heavily rely on inputs from economic activity. A key channel for
China. At the beginning of March most disruption is tourism, which is a mainstay of
countries introduced strict containment the Croatian economy (tourist spending
measures, including a massive shutdown of accounts for about 20 per cent of GDP).
businesses and schools. Disrupted value There was a drop of 75-80 per cent in tourist
chains are preventing production, including arrivals in March year-on-year, with a similar
in automotive industry, which accounts for drop expected in the second quarter and a
almost a half of industrial production in the decrease of about 30 per cent in third
Slovak Republic. Weaker external demand quarter, mitigated by the fact that Croatia is
will likely further delay the recovery. Output in easily reachable by land from the tourists’
the region is set to fall in 2020, but bounce main countries of residence such as
back strongly in 2021. Governments are Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Hungary and the
meanwhile providing significant relief Czech Republic. As revenues from tourism
measures to preserve employment and to drop, spillover effects of the crisis are likely to
support companies in a state of hibernation. be multiplied, including through a labour
Some governments started to introduce market shock (25 per cent of employed in
gradual lockdown exit strategies at the end of Croatia are on temporary contracts, and most
April, the progress of which will further of them are related to the tourism sector).
depend on epidemiological developments in The domestic lockdown, introduced in mid-
those countries. Public finances are March, is heavily reducing demand for both
expected to deteriorate sharply in all CEB services and durable goods (these categories
economies, driven by discretionary spending together account for about 40 per cent of
measures related to crisis response and consumption spending). Still, decreases in
revenue losses. As the General Escape sales of investment goods may be less
Clause from the Stability and Growth Pact severe, as some spending on repairs would
was invoked, market access and long-term need to take place following the March
fiscal sustainability are the only constraints earthquake in Zagreb. Goods exports will also
on the size of public spending programmes. decrease, particularly given the high
At the same time, non-euro zone central exposure to the severely hit Italian economy
banks, following the example of the (15 per cent of the total). Despite the
European Central Bank (ECB), launched their country’s high public debt (71 per cent of
own quantitative easing programmes in GDP) and limited fiscal space, the
order to lower financing costs of the government responded with strong stimulus
governments’ crisis response packages. measures, of around 7 per cent of GDP so far.
These are expected to limit the immediate
Croatia negative consequences to the economy but
are also bound to worsen fiscal indicators. On
The economy of Croatia recorded a growth the monetary side, Croatia is proceeding with
rate of 2.9 per cent in 2019, as domestic the Action Plan on Euro adoption, aiming to
consumption and investment increased, enter the ERM2 as early as in the second half
fuelled by higher earnings and employment of 2020. As gradual lifting of restrictions
rate, an increasing pace of lending, growing started from end of April, and more broadly
disbursement of EU funds and rising from early May, we expect to see some
economic sentiment. However, for 2020, a normalisation of economic activity in 2020,
sharp recession of up to 7.0 per cent is although to levels still below the economy’s
expected because of the coronavirus
pandemic. In mid-March, the government
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external demand all weighed on economic law to regulate prices of essential goods and
performance. Latvia is a small, open services, applicable only in a state of
economy and is therefore vulnerable to emergency. The drop in GDP in 2020 could
external developments. The coronavirus be limited to 7.0 per cent, with a rebound (of
outbreak is expected to lead to heavy losses 5.0 per cent) in 2021.
in the tourism, hospitality, passenger
transportation and airline sectors. The Poland
national carrier Air Baltic has already reduced
its staff by 700 (out of approximately 1,600 GDP growth in Poland decelerated to 4.1 per
people) due to the coronavirus crisis. The cent in 2019. Household consumption
government has introduced support remained strong, although it started to
measures worth €1 billion, including tax moderate in the second half of the year, as
holidays and sick pay leave via the state- did investment and exports. While Poland has
owned development bank ALTUM. A loan of proved to be resilient during the global
€500 million from Nordic Investment Bank financial crisis of 2008-2009, the
will be used to finance part of the stimulus coronavirus crisis is expected to have a more
package including measures to protect severe impact on domestic businesses and
employment and secure personal protective employment. Despite its substantial
equipment. The government is expected to domestic market, Poland is highly integrated
start revising containment measures in early into global value chains and has a large
May. In 2020, GDP will likely fall by 7.0 per exposure to trade, especially within the EU.
cent, with a recovery in 2021 (5.0 per cent Therefore, the overall slump in demand for
growth). Polish goods from Western Europe, especially
Germany (about 30 per cent of total exports),
Lithuania has already severely affected Polish
exporters. The significance of small and
Lithuania’s GDP expanded by 3.9 per cent in medium-sized enterprises in employment
2019, thanks mainly to strong exports and also constitutes a risk. Micro companies
investment. However, the economy is now on represent 38 per cent of total employment,
course for a severe downturn because of the higher than the EU average of 30 per cent.
coronavirus crisis. Services such as retail These are largely self-employed individuals
trade, transport, accommodation and with no permanent contracts, mostly active in
catering account for a relatively large share of services that had to be temporarily closed.
economic output (32 per cent of GDP). At the The Polish government announced several
same time, these services are the most ‘anti-crisis shield’ packages, worth almost 15
affected by the crisis. Disruptions in global per cent of GDP. They focus on protecting
value chains will likely affect manufacturing, employment (wage subsidies), companies
as about 25 per cent of Lithuania’s (liquidity injections), healthcare
production inputs need to be sourced abroad. (infrastructure improvements, including tele-
In order to protect employment, the medicine), strengthening the financial
parliament has approved provision of wage to system (central bank measures) and higher
companies hit by the coronavirus crisis. The public investment. The central bank has
state could cover 60 per cent of wages, with assisted the government through several
a subsidy not exceeding the minimum wage purchase operations of government-backed
of €607 per month. The use of state securities from domestic financial
guarantees on loans has been increased, institutions, especially the state development
such as through Invega, a national financial bank (BGK) and the state-run Polish
institution promoting funding for business. At Investment Fund (PFR). These two
the end of April, the Parliament approved a institutions have been key players in
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managing the crisis policy response. Taking into global value chains, which were already
all these measures into account, the drop in heavily disrupted in the first quarter of 2020,
GDP in 2020 could be limited to 3.5 per cent, with the disruption expected to continue.
with a recovery of 4.0 per cent in 2021. Also, around 10 per cent of GDP worth of
exports go to the severely hit Italian economy.
Slovak Republic Furthermore, the domestic containment
measures imposed in mid-March to fight the
The economy registered a slowdown from 3.9 epidemiological crisis are expected to
per cent in 2018 to 2.4 per cent in 2019, significantly affect private consumption,
largely driven by shrinking exports. With particularly spending on recreation and
regard to the coronavirus outbreak, the durables (which together account for 44 per
country’s deep integration into global value cent of consumption spending, or almost 30
chains, especially in the automotive industry, per cent of GDP). Moreover, some investment
will weigh heavily on output, at least in the projects may be postponed amid a bearish
short term. In April 2020, the country's four market sentiment (economic sentiment in
carmakers – Volkswagen, PSA Groupe, March was down 10 points month-on-month).
Jaguar Land Rover and Kia Motors – Another key channel for disruption is tourism,
temporarily stopped production due to which accounts for about 7 per cent of GDP.
disrupted supplies of inputs, lower demand A fiscal package of about 10 per cent of GDP
and concern about the health of workers. Car was introduced to support the economy. In
manufacturing, including smaller domestic addition, as a eurozone member, Slovenia
suppliers, accounts for almost half of stands to benefit from the ECB measures
industrial production and 47 per cent of total aimed at providing additional liquidity and
exports from the Slovak Republic. The low ensuring financial stability. Slovenia started
diversification of the Slovak manufacturing is easing restrictions from late April, allowing a
a particular risk factor, given the disrupted number of stores to reopen, with further
supply chains and a possible drop in demand loosening from early May. For instance, the
for cars, particularly in the light of a massive automotive industry, is now also resuming its
damage to the transport sector. The activity. In 2021, output is expected to grow
government has adopted 31 measures to by 5.0 per cent, from the low base of 2020,
support the economy, and redirected €1.25 as the economy returns to normality.
billion of EU funds to crisis response. We
expect output to fall by 6.0 per cent in 2020 Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
before recovering strongly in 2021, by 7.0 per
cent. EEC countries are likely to be severely
affected by the coronavirus crisis. The initial
Slovenia
hit came from tightening global financial
Economic growth in Slovenia slowed down in markets, strong pressure on domestic
2019 to 2.4 per cent, from the high rates of foreign exchange markets and reduced
the previous two years, amid slower growth of foreign demand for exports. Domestic
exports to the main trading partners, demand has been reduced due to public
primarily the eurozone, mirroring the health measures put in place to contain the
slowdown in global trade. In 2020, we project spread of the virus. Lower commodity prices
a drop in GDP of 5.5 per cent, with a are putting additional strain on the exporters
significant contribution from the lower of hydrocarbons and metals – Azerbaijan,
exports of goods, which account for more Ukraine and Armenia – while an expected
than 80 per cent of GDP. Slovenia is among drop in remittances will likely further
the EBRD countries most highly integrated suppress household disposable income in
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most countries in this region, especially in showed positive growth. Low inflation (below
Moldova, Armenia, Ukraine and Georgia. 3 per cent) has allowed the central bank to
Loss of tourism receipts will be a significant continue cutting the refinancing rate, to 7.25
blow to the Georgian economy. per cent at end-January 2020. With the
hydrocarbon sector generating more than a
Armenia third of GDP, roughly two thirds of
government revenue and 90 per cent of
Economic growth in Armenia accelerated to export receipts, the recent oil price decline
7.6 per cent in 2019, driven by the significant will hit Azerbaijan’s economy in 2020. The
increase in the consumption of households State Oil fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) sold
and supported by stronger export growth. The nearly US$ 2 billion of foreign exchange to
increase in consumption was led by local banks in March amid soaring demand.
household credit, up by 30 per cent in 2019, The pressure on the currency weakened in
and by a 10 per cent increase in money April. In an effort to boost confidence in the
transfers from abroad. On the production banking sector, the authorities extended a
side, growth was led by the manufacturing blanket guarantee for all deposits until early
and financial sectors, closely followed by December 2020. The exchange rate has
domestic trade. The resumption of remained stable to date. Large SOFAZ assets
operations at one of the mines helped (approximately 90 per cent of GDP) will
support expansion of exports. Despite strong continue cushioning the economy against the
household demand, inflation turned negative external shock. However, a prolonged period
in the first quarter of 2020. With a relatively of low oil prices and weak global demand
stable exchange rate combined with could cause serious imbalances in the
deflationary pressures, and in an effort to economy. On the back of these
support domestic demand, the Central Bank developments, we expect the economy to
of Armenia lowered the refinancing rate two contract by 3.0 per cent in 2020, recovering
consecutive times to 5.0 per cent in April by 3.0 per cent in 2021.
2020, the lowest rate since 2010. The global
uncertainty and decreasing demand resulting Belarus
from the coronavirus crisis, combined with
volatility in commodity prices, will affect the GDP growth in Belarus slowed to 1.2 per cent
economy directly via a decrease in exports, in 2019 due to a supply shock in the
which are dominated by copper and other petrochemical sector caused by the
mining products, and indirectly through contamination of oil imported through the
economic links with Russia, including a likely Druzhba pipeline. The current account deficit
downturn in remittances. Prolonged widened from near-zero in 2018 to 1.8 per
measures of social containment and low cent in 2019 on the back of declining oil
mobility would hurt Armenia’s tourism sector, derivatives exports (and a drop in the
which is largely dependent on visits from secondary income surplus), resulting in
Armenians abroad. We project the Armenian exchange rate pressures and falling
economy to shrink by 3.5 per cent in 2020, international reserves. However, the
with a rebound of 5.5 per cent in 2021. government’s fiscal position remained strong
in 2019 due to higher tax revenues and very
Azerbaijan conservative public spending. According to
preliminary estimates, economic growth
Azerbaijan’s output expanded modestly in turned slightly negative in the first quarter of
2019, by 2.2 per cent, driven by the non-oil 2020 as manufacturing contracted by 2.3
and gas sector which grew at the rate of 3.6 per cent year-on-year due to the delay in
per cent. Agriculture and services also reaching a new agreement for oil and gas
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trade with Russia, which resulted in a in 2020 before recovering by 5.5 per cent in
disruption of oil supplies to the oil refineries 2021.
in Belarus at the beginning of the year.
Domestic trade is falling on the back of rising Moldova
uncertainties. Extensive economic ties with
Russia (accounting for 41 per cent of exports, Economic growth in Moldova decelerated to
56 per cent of imports of goods and 31 per 3.6 per cent in 2019 due to a near-standstill
cent of the total stock of inward foreign direct in the last quarter of the year. Strong
investment) make Belarus vulnerable to oil investments benefiting from heightened
price declines and the expected recession in construction activity, private consumption
Russia. Meanwhile, the coronavirus and robust export growth all contributed to
pandemic will likely deepen the recession by economic expansion. However, the one-off
reducing foreign and domestic demand. The factors behind the growth in construction
output is expected to decline by 5.0 per cent levelled off toward the end of the year.
in 2020 and to rebound by 3.5 per cent in Inflation was boosted by strong demand and
2021. a rise in food and regulated prices during
2019, reaching 7.5 per cent in December but
Georgia falling to 5.9 per cent in March 2020. The
coronavirus crisis will likely have a significant
Georgia recorded another year of robust negative impact on the already decelerating
growth in 2019. GDP expanded by 5.1 per economy. Weaker demand from trade
cent, supported by another record year for partners will lower Moldovan exports,
the number of international visitors (7.7 especially from the free trade zone which is
million, of which 5 million were tourists well integrated into the global supply chains.
staying overnight). Amid rising inflation the This will be exacerbated by a likely drop in
policy rate was increased from 6.5 per cent in remittances, which will weigh on disposable
July 2019 to 9 per cent by December 2019. incomes. Increased uncertainty,
While inflation remained elevated in the first compounded by the volatility in the financial
four months of 2020, the authorities cut the markets, will likely lead to postponed private-
policy rate by 0.5 per cent in April as the sector investment projects. We expect GDP to
ongoing reduction in demand is expected to decline by 4.0 per cent in 2020 followed by a
create downward pressure on prices. recovery of 5.0 per cent in 2021.
Depreciation pressures reappeared in March
2020 on the back of increased volatility in the Ukraine
global financial markets and an expected
drop in tourism receipts. To help stabilise Economic growth in Ukraine decelerated
expectations and ensure financing of the slightly to 3.2 per cent in 2019, following a
widening external and fiscal deficits, the disappointing fourth quarter. Consumption
authorities secured additional financing from and construction-led investments continued
multilateral creditors. Looking ahead, the to drive the economy. Exports performed well
hospitality sector will be severely hit as through most of the year due to exceptional
countries contain the spread of the performance in agriculture but slowed down
coronavirus and ban travel abroad. With markedly in the last quarter. Inflation
tourism receipts normally amounting to declined to 4.1 per cent year-on-year in
nearly one-fifth of GDP, the negative impact December 2019 and to 2.3 per cent year-on-
will be widespread across many sectors. We year in March 2020, prompting the National
expect the economy to shrink by 5.5 per cent Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to further cut its key
policy rate to 8.0 per cent in April 2020, the
lowest since April 2014. Buoyant activity of
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A government reshuffle in January 2020 Taking all factors into account, the economy
provided a clear signal of intentions to adopt is expected to shrink by 4.5 per cent in 2020,
a more pro-growth stance and relax the tight followed by a rebound of 4.0 per cent in
policies of recent years. Key actions were the 2021. This forecast is subject to significant
announcement of a 2.1 trillion roubles social upside and downside risks, depending
spending package to support real incomes, primarily on the path of oil prices and the
and the pledge to access 1 trillion roubles extent and duration of social distancing
from the National Wealth Fund to push the 12 measures.
National Projects, a US$ 400 billion
investment aimed at modernising and South Eastern European Union
revitalizing Russian society, implementation
of which had been behind schedule. These This region is likely to be severely affected by
activities will take place within the the coronavirus crisis. A key channel for
constraints of the budget rule, which disruption is tourism, which is a mainstay of
mandates the sterilization and transfer of oil the Cypriot and Greek economies but is also
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important for Bulgaria. Supply chains in the budget. After four consecutive years of
region are also being affected by the virus budget surpluses, and with public debt at 21
containment measures and border closures. per cent of GDP, Bulgaria is among the least
Fiscal packages may help to alleviate some indebted countries in the EU. Also, the
of the impact of the crisis, although Bulgarian National Bank has reacted
governments of all countries, apart from promptly providing liquidity to the banking
Bulgaria, face limited fiscal space; but sector. The country’s entry to the ERM2 is
recessions in 2020 seem inevitable, with now scheduled for July 2020, although a
some recovery expected in 2021. further delay could not be ruled out. Under
the baseline scenario, a recovery is expected
Bulgaria in 2021, with GDP growth of 4.0 per cent.
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6.0 per cent in 2020, with a rebound of 5.0 hikes. As a result, the fiscal deficit increased,
per cent in 2021. reaching 4.6 per cent of GDP in 2019, but
general government debt remained
Greece moderate, at 35 per cent of GDP as of end-
2019. In 2020, we forecast a contraction of
Economic indicators in Greece continued to 4.0 per cent, assuming the epidemic
improve in 2019, with the growth rate of 1.9 significantly slowing down from the second
per cent, the same as in 2018. The main quarter, with all containment measures
drivers of growth remain exports of goods, removed. The domestic lockdown (a state of
private consumption and another successful emergency was introduced in mid-March) is
tourism season. Economic sentiment reducing private consumption of services
reached a 12-year high in 2019. Capital involving face-to-face contact and durable
controls, introduced in 2015, were fully lifted goods, which together account for around 30
in September 2019, and the country has per cent of total spending (for instance, new
been boosted by ratings upgrades from the passenger car registrations fell by 32 per
main ratings agencies and several successful cent year-on-year in March). This impact may
bond issuances. The coronavirus pandemic be somewhat compensated by an increase in
has abruptly interrupted the steady recovery food spending, which accounts for 25 per
of the Greek economy. The halt of virtually all cent of total spending, the largest share in
travel across Europe and beyond will heavily the EU. Investment has been falling amid
hit the travel and tourism sector, which uncertainty and bearish market sentiment,
represents more than a fifth of GDP. The while liquidity pressure and disruption of
implementation of confinement measures supply chains may interrupt ongoing
will also reduce the level of consumption and investment projects. Although Romania is
weigh particularly heavily on small and less dependent on international trade
medium size companies. The extent of the compared with its regional EU peers, goods
recession in 2020 will thus depend on the exports (which account for about 33 per cent
duration of the pandemic and associated of GDP) have been hit, not least because of
travel restrictions across the world, as well as the significant exposure to the strongly
on the fiscal measures taken to support affected Italian economy (goods exports to
businesses and consumption both at the Italy account for about 10 per cent of total
Greek and EU levels. The Greek government goods exports). Moreover, Italy is also an
has so far approved a discretionary fiscal important source of remittances for
stimulus programme of €15 billion (8.9 per Romania, accounting for about one third of
cent of GDP) to support businesses and the country’s remittance inflows. The fiscal
employees, alongside targeted tax holidays stimulus package deployed, of about 3 per
and deferment of loan payments via the cent of GDP aims to inject additional liquidity
banks. We expect GDP to contract by 6.0 per and preserve jobs. Further support may,
cent in 2020, with a rebound of 6.0 per cent however, be limited in the context of the fiscal
in 2021, but downside risks to this scenario position, with a target deficit of 6.7 per cent
are significant. of GDP in 2020 in the revised budget.
Romania’s sovereign rating outlook has been
Romania
downgraded to negative by the main rating
The Romanian economy continued growing agencies. As part of crisis response, the
at a robust rate in 2019, at 4.1 per cent, National Bank of Romania (NBR) eased
driven by a strong expansion of private monetary policy and started buying public
consumption on the back of pro-cyclical fiscal debt. In 2021, the private sector is expected
policy, including public salary and pension
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to bounce back and drive the recovery, with a outlook arise from the need for a tougher
growth rate of 4.0 per cent. lockdown should the spread of Covid-19
accelerate and from the negative outlook in
Southern and Eastern Egypt’s main trading partners.
Mediterranean
Jordan
The coronavirus crisis is expected to impact
The rate of growth in Jordan remained
economic activity in the SEMED region
subdued in 2019 at 2.0 per cent, even as
through several channels, including tourism
tourist arrivals increased for the third
(a major driver of growth in all countries in
consecutive year. The economic fallout from
2019), a decline in domestic demand due to
the coronavirus containment measures is
containment measures, and consequently a
expected to push GDP growth in 2020 into
drop in domestic investment, a decline in
the negative territory (–2.5 per cent), due
demand from the main trading partners and
mainly to the contraction in tourism and
a slowdown in foreign direct investment
cross-border trade. Growth is expected to
inflows. Growth is expected to fall to -0.8 per
pick up again in 2021, to 3.0 per cent,
cent in 2020 before rebounding to 4.8 per
sustained by the lower cost of imported
cent in 2021, supported by a recovery in
energy, increased finance provided to SMEs
global economic activity and domestic
under various schemes from the Central
demand, lower imports in light of the
Bank of Jordan, and reforms anchored in the
slowdown in global trade, the
new IMF-supported programme. The
implementation of business environment
projections take into account the recent
reforms and lower political uncertainty.
announcement of gradual lifting of social
distancing measures. Risks to the outlook
Egypt
include an erosion of real competitiveness
Growth in Egypt has continued to accelerate stemming from the strengthening of the dinar
in the first half of fiscal year (FY) 2019-20, (in light of the peg to the US dollar), with
matching the rate achieved in FY2018-19, of stronger pressure on the overvalued
5.6 per cent, driven by retail, industry and exchange rate should capital inflows fall short
agriculture, in addition to oil refining, of expectations. Regional instability, and a
communications, construction and tourism. possibility of slower-than-expected recovery
Measures to contain the spread of the of partner economies also pose risks to the
coronavirus will lead to a slowing of growth in outlook.
the last quarter of the fiscal year ending June
Lebanon
2020 and the first half of the next fiscal year.
We project GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in
Lebanon’s economy is estimated to have
FY2019-20 and 3.0 per cent in FY2020-21,
fallen into recession in 2018 and 2019
due mainly to the weak outlook in the tourism
(contracting by 1.9 per cent and 6.0 per cent,
sector, disruptions in global value chains,
respectively). The GDP contraction reflected
weaker demand from trading partners, and
regional and domestic political uncertainties
the slowdown in foreign direct investment.
culminating in domestic social unrest, the
However, large public construction projects
slow implementation of reforms and the
and the boom in the telecommunications
resulting wait-and-see approach of
sector have so far sustained growth. On the
international partners after the CEDRE
calendar year basis, growth will drop to 0.5
conference in April 2018. The slowdown in
per cent in 2020, before rebounding to 5.2
private investment and consumption as a
per cent in 2021. The main risks to the
result of lower capital inflows and the
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recently due to stimulus-driven domestic growth in 2021. There are significant risks
demand growth. surrounding this forecast, which is heavily
dependent on the duration and extent of the
While leading indicators suggest the recovery social distancing measures.
was sustained in the first months of 2020,
domestic and external demand will be hard Western Balkans
hit by the pandemic. The significant decline in
tourism revenues and weaker export demand Western Balkans countries will be affected by
will put more pressure on the external the coronavirus crisis through different
balance, although if sustained, the lower oil channels. Service sectors, especially SMEs,
price will provide limited support given will feel the effect of lock-down measures
Turkey’s dependence on imported energy. through lost revenues in all countries, albeit
Likewise, the lower oil price, alongside the to a varied extent. Bosnia and Herzegovina,
sharp slowdown in domestic activity, will help North Macedonia and Serbia, all of which
offset the inflationary impact of the have strong manufacturing bases, may be
weakening lira. mostly hit through the disruption of global
supply chains. Albania and Montenegro, with
Until recently, Turkish financial markets had their strong reliance on tourism, will be
been remarkably stable, particularly given the negatively affected by limitations of
low and now-negative real policy rates, and movement of people, while in Kosovo, (and to
ongoing concerns about the sufficiency and some extent in other Western Balkans
quality of foreign exchange reserves held by countries), lower remittances will reduce
the Central Bank relative to the economy’s domestic demand.
external liabilities. This period of calm
reflected the supportive global policy stance, Albania
but can also be attributed to extensive
interventions by the authorities. However, The economy of Albania expanded by 2.2 per
coronavirus concerns have resulted in cent in 2019, down from 4.1 per cent in
financing costs and risk premia rising in 2018. The slowdown came mainly as a
Turkey, as in other emerging markets, and consequence of weaker power generation,
have caused a recent sell-off of Turkish combined with the high base effect from the
assets. previous year, but also as a consequence of
a decline in construction output, visible
With the non-performing loan ratio standing especially in the last quarter. On the other
at a 10-year high of 5.3 per cent, the hand, services, especially tourism, remained
weakness of the lira and contractions in an important contributor to growth. On the
tourism, retail and export sectors are likely to expenditure side, investment recorded a mild
put further stress on the already strained decline year-on-year in the first three
asset quality of banks, particularly in light of quarters, which deepened to 12 per cent
the large foreign-exchange-denominated year-on-year in the fourth quarter due to the
debt overhang in the corporate sector. November 2019 earthquake. Amid continued
Meanwhile, government efforts to spur bank low inflation, in March 2020 the central bank
lending may lead to further asset quality cut the key policy rate to a record low of 0.5
deterioration down the road. per cent (from 1.0 per cent) to help alleviate
the impact of the coronavirus crisis.
Growth is likely to be heavily impacted by the Nevertheless, the economy is likely to be
coronavirus pandemic in 2020. We expect strongly affected by the epidemic due to its
GDP to contract by 3.5 per cent in 2020, high reliance on tourism and exports of low-
followed by a robust recovery to 6.0 per cent value-added intermediate goods to Italy’s
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Bosnia and Herzegovina GDP growth slowed to 3.5 per cent in 2019,
from 5.1 per cent in 2018. The deceleration
Growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina was primarily due to large investment
decelerated to 2.6 per cent in 2019, from 3.7 projects approaching completion (the Bar-
per cent in 2018, primarily due to a (mild) Boljare highway) or being completed (power
decline in industrial and agricultural output. link to Italy). Last year was also marked by a
On the expenditure side, the economy saw a fall in industrial production, on the back of
fall in exports, especially those of base declines in electricity production and
metals and mineral products. At the same manufacturing sector output. On the other
time, private consumption growth picked up hand, the tourism sector has continued to
to 2.4 per cent year-on-year, around one perform well and the 2019 season was the
percentage point above the rate seen in the strongest on record. Looking ahead, however,
previous two years. GDP is expected to the economy is likely to suffer severely from
decline by 4.5 per cent in 2020 and rebound the coronavirus outbreak, because of the
by 6.0 per cent in 2021. A likely drop in expected impact on the tourist season, as
remittances (which usually amount to 11 per tourists from the main origin countries may
cent of GDP) will negatively affect not be able to travel (around 80 per cent of
consumption, while the closure of borders tourist stays are normally between June and
and factories will constrain exports to and September). In early May 2020, S&P revised
imports of production inputs from the main the outlook on the sovereign rating from
trading partners, notably in the eurozone. stable to negative, keeping the rating
Sectors that might be most strongly hit by the unchanged. Under the assumption that half
virus outbreak include manufacturing of the 2020 tourism season is affected, we
(especially, textiles, footwear and furniture expect GDP to fall by 8.0 per cent in 2020,
industries, as most of them rely on contracts recovering strongly, by 10.5 per cent, in
with Italian companies), transport, 2021.
accommodation and food services, and
construction. North Macedonia
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January 2020, to 2.0 per cent, and followed 2019, significantly below the level of just a
up with another 25 basis point cut in March few years ago. Inflationary pressures remain
2020, with the view to mitigate the adverse subdued and, after three cuts of 25 basis
effect of the coronavirus containment points each in 2019, the central bank
measures on the domestic economy. lowered the key policy rate by another 75
Vulnerabilities to the epidemic in North basis points in total in March and April 2020,
Macedonia are moderate and, under the to 1.5 per cent. The latest cuts sought to
assumption of social distancing receding, mitigate the economic effects of the
GDP is projected to fall by 3.5 per cent in pandemic. The Covid-19 crisis also prompted
2020, rebounding by 5.5 per cent in 2021. S&P to revise the outlook on Serbia's long-
term credit rating from positive to stable in
Serbia early May 2020, but without changing the
rating. In recent years, Serbia has increased
GDP grew by 4.2 per cent in 2019, a minor its integration into global supply chains,
slowdown compared with 2018 (4.4 per mainly with the eurozone countries. The
cent), despite poor industrial performance in epidemic has disrupted international trade
the first half of the year. Economic activity and forced several large manufacturers in
picked up in the second half of 2019, Serbia to close temporarily. In light of the
boosted by industrial output returning to Covid-19 crisis, GDP is expected to fall by 3.5
growth and strong construction activity, per cent in 2020, recovering in 2021 by 6.0
supported by the building of the TurkStream per cent.
gas pipeline. Strong fiscal performance
continued: the 2019 budget recorded a small
deficit (0.2 per cent of GDP), while public debt
stood at 53 per cent of GDP at the end of
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For more comprehensive coverage of economic policies and structural changes, see the EBRD’s
country strategies and updates, as well as the Transition Report 2019-20, which are all available
on the Bank’s website at www.ebrd.com.
Acknowledgements
The report was edited by Zsoka Koczan (koczanz@ebrd.com) and Alexander Plekhanov
(plekhana@ebrd.com), under the general guidance of Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist.
Regional updates were edited by Peter Sanfey (sanfeyp@ebrd.com). The writing teams covering
individual countries and regions were:
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia:
Peter Tabak and Sanja Borkovic
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine: Dimitar Bogov and Ana Kresic
Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia: Mateusz Szczurek, Jakov Milatovic and Radu
Cracan
Cyprus and Greece: Peter Sanfey and Julia Brouillard
Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia: Bassem Kamar and Rafik Selim
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and the Slovak Republic: Mateusz Szczurek
and Marcin Tomaszewski
Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan: Eric
Livny and Dana Skakova
Russia and Turkey: Roger Kelly and Ali Sokmen
23