ENVIRONMENTAL

STUDIES PROJECT
WORK
On
Analysis of rainfall pattern
of Konkan region over the
period of last 5 years
made by
Rutuja Saymote, roll no – 211
Ketan Tank, roll no - 217
Radheshyam pujari, roll no – 197
Mangesh Pawar, roll no – 193

of
CLASS – SY-BCom.
DIVISION – B
BMCC, PUNE
 INTRODUCTION

The project work is basically on rainfall pattern in Konkan region. The

analysis and methodology is in support to prove that the region
experiences very heavy rainfall in Maharashtra and is one of the wettest
regions in India. The methods used for the calculation of the rainfall
pattern are Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope estimator test. Ahead,
the analysis is done on the basis of these methods itself.
We students of BMCC college have selected the topic “Analysis of rainfall
pattern of Konkan region over the period of last 5 years” as this
topic is very relatable to us as we are living in Pune (part of Konkan
region). We are able to understand much better about the rainfall pattern
here. This topic is interesting and informative for us. Hence, this topic
was unanimously chosen by the group members for project work.
The Konkan region has hilly Topography with highly drainable lateritic
and non-lateritic soils. Due to porous nature of geological strata water
holding capacity of soil is less which cause the most of rainfall drains
away fastly in rainy season to adjacent Arabian Sea. Even though area
having heavy rainfall, it faces water scarcity in summer season.`Daily
rainfall data of Jamsar, Savarkhand, Khapari, Karjat, Chowk, Varandoli,
Dapoli, Karambavane, Mulde, Vengurla and Amboli, stations.
The History of Konkan region shows it to be the wettest region of
Maharashtra as it experiences around 45% of total rainfall that the state
experiences. Every year many parts of this region face floods and
heavy rains. The region is adjacent to Arabian Sea and the Western
ocean currents are responsible for the rain in this region.
By definition, rainfall pattern over a region is the recurring rainfall
observation over a specified region which shows the type of rainfall and
helps in forecasting of rainfall in future.
 OBJECTIVE

1. To study the situation of

current rainfall patterns
2. To study how to overcome
on different situation
3. To study increasing and
decreasing rates of rainfall
4. To detect the changes occurs in
rainfall
5. To study how rainfall vary
in different parts in Konkan
 IMPORTANCE

The topic is very relevant to today’s condition

as people are experiencing shortage of water
in various parts of the country. Hence, such
analysis is very important to know the amount
of rainfall that a region has experienced. We
also come to know that th rainfall occurred is
equivalent to the need or demand of that
particular region or not. Hence , the
government could use such data to manage
the water scarcity or floods conditions well in
advance.
Also , such analysis helps a native person to
know about the regional trends of rainfall and
make use of such data for any business
activity such as farming or transportation or
fishing ,etc.
Hence , such topic for a group is very relevant
and helpful to understand the regional trend.
 METHODOLOGY

Data used :-
Daily rainfall data of eleven rain-gauge stations viz. Jamsar, Savarkhand, Khapari,
Karjat, Chouk, Varandoli, Dapoli, Karambavane, Mulde, Vengurla and Amboli
stations of Konkan region were collected from Department of Agronomy, Dr.
Balasaheb Sawant Konkan Krishi Vidyapeeth, Dapoli and Water Resources
Department, Hydrology Project (Surface Water), Government of Maharashtra.

Tests used for analysis :-

Mann-Kendall Test (M-K) :-

The data values were evaluated as ordered time series. Each data value was compared with
all subsequent data values. The initial value of the Mann-Kendall statistic, S, is assumed to
be 0 (e.g. no trend), if a data value from a later time period is higher than a data value from
an earlier time period, S is incremented by 1. On the other hand, if a data value from a later
time period is lower than a data value estimated earlier, S is decremented by 1. The net
result of all such increments and decrements yields the final value of S (Drapela and
Drapelova 2011). Let x1 , x2 , …xn represent n data points where xj represents the data
point at time j and xk represent the data point at time k.
Then the Mann-Kendall statistic (S) is given by the following formula:

If n is 9 or less, the absolute value of S is compared directly to the theoretical distribution of S

derived by Mann and Kendall (Gilbert, 1987). A very high positive value of S is an indicator of an
increasing trend, and a very low negative value indicates a decreasing trend (Bihrat and
Mehmetcik, (2003), Choudhury et al. (2012), Kazimierz and Leszek, 2012). If n is at least 10, the
normal approximation test is used. For n ≥ 10, the statistic S was approximately normally
distributed with the mean (Drapela and Drapelova 2011) and variance as follows

Where, q = Number of tied groups, t p = Number of data values in the pth group.
The standard test statistic Z computed as follows :-
The presence of a statistically significant trend was evaluated using the Z value.
A positive/negative value of Z indicates an upward /downward trend.

Sen´s slope estimator method:-

To estimate the true slope of an existing trend (as change per year) the Sen’s nonparametric
method is used. The Sen’s method can be used in cases where the trend can be assumed
to be linear. If a linear trend is present in a time series, then the true slope (change per unit
time) was estimated by using a simple nonparametric procedure developed by Sen (1968).
This means that linear model f (t) can be described as :-
f(t) = Qt + B ....................5

Where, Qt = Slope B = Constant. To derive an estimate of the slope Qt , the slopes of all
data pairs were calculated

If there was n values xj in the time series get as many as N = n (n-1)/2 slope estimates Qt .
The Sen’s estimator of slope is the median of these N values of Qt . The N values of Qt were
ranked from the smallest to the largest and the Sen’s estimator is

The procedure in MAKESENS computes the confidence interval at two different

Confidence levels; α = 0.01 and α = 0.05, resulting in two different confidence intervals. At
first we compute :

Where VAR(S) has been defined in equation (3.6) and Z1-α/2 was obtained from the
standard normal distribution. Next M1 = (N - Cα )/2 and M2 = (N + Cα)/2 were computed.
The lower and upper limits of the confidence interval, Qmin and Qmax, where the M1th
largest and the (M2+1)th largest of the N ordered slope estimates Qt. If M1 is not a whole
number the lower limit was interpolated. Correspondingly, if M2 is not a whole number the
upper limit was interpolated. To obtain an estimate of B in the equation (3.8) the n values of
differences xi – Qt were calculated. The median of these values gives an estimate of B
(Sirois 1998). The estimates for the constant B of lines of the 99 % and 95 % confidence
intervals were calculated by a similar procedure.
RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2015 :-

RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2016 :-

RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2017 :-

RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2018 :-

RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2019 :-

QUESTIONNAIRE: -
1. Where does range of kokan region resides over map of india?

2. What sort of whether or climate is present over kokan region?

3. What geographical sector near kokan region helps to have

heavy rainfall?
Harnai , Ratnagiri.
4. Which city has most rainfall over the period of time within
kokan region?
5. What makes southern part special than all other areas
over india?
6. What is water conservation policy followed by kokan govt. To be
able to control situation of heavy rainfall?
7. Being situated at bay of Arabic ocean what precautions does
kokan govt takes in case of heavy rainfall?
8. How rainfall helps to maintain nature's beauty of kokan?

9. How does tourism gets attractive in monsoon?

10. What effect does pattern of rainfall make to agriculture sector?

11. On an average what is percentage of rainfall does kokan
region focusses in comparison to Maharashtra?
Approx. 45%
 OBSERVATION

• 13 districts of Dhule, Nandurbar, Pune, Aurangabad, Buldana, Akola,

Washim, Amravati, Wardha, Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondia, Gadchiroli
received between 76-100% average rainfall,
• 17 districts of Thane, Palghar, Raigad Ratnagiri, Sindhudurga, Jalgaon,
Ahmednagar, Satara, Sangli, Jalna, Beed, Latur, Osmanabad, Nanded,
Hingoli, Yavatmal, Chandrapur eceived between 51-75% average
rainfall and In 4 districts, rainfall has been less than 50%, these
include Nashik, Solapur, Kolhapur and Parbhani.
• Strangely, IMD states Nashik received 729 mm rainfall till 30th Sept
and has just 20% rainfall deficit but for the same period, Agriculture
• Department shows Nashik has received just 484.8 mm rainfall, and
shows a rainfall deficit of about 52%! The difference between the two
values is whopping 244.2 mm, more than entire seasonal rainfall of
Solapur!
• IMD note also includes Beed (just about here at -50%) and Latur (-51%)
in less than 50% rain, these are not included in the cabinet note.
• Agriculture Department statistics includes Osmanabad in less 50%
rainfall bracket, but it is not included in Cabinet Note

• Solapur gets less than 1972 rainfall: According to Agriculture Dept,

Solapur has received low rainfall of barely 193.9 mm from June-Sept.
This is on top of 25% rainfall deficit in 2014 monsoon. In the epic drought
of 1972 also, Solapur received more than this at 224.9 mm rainfall.[vi]
This year, Solapur has received less than half of the rainfall Rajasthan
received! This also seems to be the lowest monsoon rainfall Solapur
received since 1901!
• For two consecutive years, Parbhani has received less than
50% rainfall (326.9 mm this year). In fact it’s June –July August
Rainfall this year is lowest in the century.
• The district which has shown the highest deficit is Kolhapur. As
per Agriculture Department data, it has received just 634.8 mm rainfall,
35.8% of its normal average monsoon rainfall. Strangely, IMD shows 803.4
mm rainfall this monsoon for Kolhapur, which is 46% of normal. The
difference of 168.6 mm is too huge to be ignored and needs to be explained.
 ANALYSIS

The rainfall trends were identified by using Mann

Kendal Test and Sen’s slope estimator method
on Annual and Monthly basis for selected stations
for Konkan regions. Total 13 stations data of 25
to 30 years data were analysed to identify the
rainfall trends based on availability of data.
The presence of a statistically significant trend
was evaluated using the Z value. A
positive/negative value of Z indicates an upward
/downward trend. In the present study, confidence
level of 99, 95 and 90 % signify the positive or
negative trends determined by the test statistic. At
the 99 % significance level, the null hypothesis of
no trend is rejected if |Z| > 2.575; at the 95 %
significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is
rejected if |Z| > 1.96; and at the 90 % significance
level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if |
Z| > 1.645.

: The annual rainfall of Chowk (3197 ± 693 mm)

with 22% variation showed a significant increasing
trend of 26.91 mm/year. Average annual rainfall of
Savarkhand (2547 ± 499 mm) with 20% variation
evinced significant increasing trend of 22.88
mm/year. Average annual rainfall of Karanbavane
(3893 ± 823 mm) with 21% variation and exhibited
a significant increasing trend of 60.81 mm/year.
Karjat and Varandoli showed non-significant decreasing trend of -15.1 mm/year and -7.33 mm/year,
respectively. Jamsar, Khapari, Dapoli, Mulde, Vengurla and Amboli showednon-significant increasing trend of
annual rainfall which is given in table 2. Maximum deviation (1457 mm) and variation (52%) was exhibited at
Karjat. Minimum deviation as well as variation of annual rainfall was evinced in the southern part of the
Konkan region. The District-wise deviation of annual rainfall was maximum in Raigad (945 mm) followed by
Ratnagiri (828 mm), Sindhudurg (696 mm), Palghar (639 mm) and Thane (480) with coefficient of variation 31
%, 22 %, 17 %, 25 % and 19 %, respectively.
Name of Value of Z Value of Q
station
Jamsur 1.23 14.49
Karjat 1.39 10.16
Chowk 0.39 6.8
Dapoli -0.94 -16.7
Amboli -0.66 -3.68
Varandoli 0.39 6.8

This is the analysis table of six different

places which was done with the help of Menn-
Kendall method and Sen’s method. The value
of Z represents the Menn-Kendall method
value and The value of Q represents the
Sen’s method .
 OUTCOME OF WORK

The average annual rainfall distribution over the Konkan region

was 3482 mm. Annual rainfall of Jamsar, Khapari, Dapoli,
Mulde, Vengurla and Amboli showed non-significant increasing
trend, whereas significant increasing trend was observed at
Savarkhand, Chowk and Karambawane. Non-significant
decreasing trend of annual rainfall was exhibited at Karjat and
Varandoli. Non-significant increasing trend of annual rainfall
was evinced in south part of the Konkan region. The months of
June and August rainfall didn’t show any significant trend all
over the region and nonsignificant increasing, as well as, a
decreasing trend was exhibited in south and middle part of the
Konkan region. Non significant increasing trend was observed
in the north part of the region during June and August months.
July and October month rainfall showed nonsignificant
increasing, as well as, a decreasing trend in north and middle
part of the Konkan region. Monthly rainfall of September month
showed increasing trend all over the Konkan region and
significant increasing trend was exhibited only south part of the
region. The nonsignificant increasing trend observed for all over
the Konkan region on annually and monthly basis

Achievement from project activity :-

We have come to know the regional rainfall trend and hence
learnt two different methods to analyse the rainfall trend.
 REFERENCES

• https://mausam.imd.gov.in/
• http://krishi.maharashtra.gov.in/1001/Hom
e
• http://hydro.imd.gov.in/hydrometweb/ .
• http://maharain.gov.in
• http://www.imdpune.gov.in/research/
ndc/rainfall/DRF_STN.html
• http://www.indiawaterportal.org/met
_data/
• http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/
• www.googleimages.com
• www.google.com