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Trading with Market Statistics X. % Sign in to follow this Followers 24

Daily Analysis
Position Trading By HFblogNews · Posted 16 minutes ago
By jperl, September 9, 2007 in Market Profile
Date : 12th March 2020. Morning Update
– March 12 2020 12th MarchFX News
Today – Wednesday washout is
& & & & '' Start new topic ( Reply to this topic
becoming Thursday fallout. Equities
closed down 5% and now down 20%

1 2 3 4 NEXT ) Page 1 of 4 * from February peak and in a BEAR...

Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne

jperl Posted September 9, 2007 (edited)  By TheRumpledOne · Posted 15 hours
ago

Position Trading is generally described as a trade which you enter and expect
to hold for a considerable period of time during the day. Such a trade can be Daily Analysis
By HFblogNews · Posted 23 hours ago
entered at any time after the open. My personal preference for a position trade
is at the beginning of the trading day using market statistics from the previous Date : 11th March 2020. Central Banks –
day as my guide for determining entry, profit target, stoploss and scale in Race to the Bottom – Again? 11th
MarchGBPUSD, H1The latest Central
points if necessary. The direction of the trade is based on interpretation given
Bank to act (in another surprise and
Members in the last 9 "Trading with Market Statistics" threads but using the previous
unscheduled announcement) is the Bank
+ 10 days statistics as the starting point. Position trading is thus no different than of England. The BoE slashed rates by...
363 posts
any other type of trading that I have previously described.
Understanding Forex Market
F By fxeconomist · Posted yesterday at
04:15 AM
Here is the idea:
I wonder why didn't they include such
popular and reliable brokers as Hotforex,
IB or Tickmill. They all have FCA license.
a)Set up a chart with yesterdays volume histogram, PVP, VWAP and SD's on it.
Leave sufficient room to the right of yesterdays close so that at the open you Become a Better Trader
can continue to add to the statistical data as todays market begins to unfold. In F By fxeconomist · Posted yesterday at
effect you are continuing to update yesterdays volume distribution as more 04:14 AM
data is added to the chart. Yes, you are right you should improve
your market analysis skills and you
should also learn how to trade using
demo account for example from
b)Before the open, decide on your trading plan. Pick a direction for the trade,
Hotforex. This should help you to enter
an entry point, profit target and stoploss based on what you see in the volume into the real world of Forex
distribution function. It will help to reread the previous threads to determine
what you should be looking for.

c)When the market opens, execute the plan.

In the following video on trading the ER2 (Emini Russell 2000), you will see that
the previous days volume distribution ended the day in a symmetric state with
the VWAP = PVP. I then concluded that I should look for a countertrend trade
back toward the VWAP as described in [thread=2285]"Trading with Market
Statistics Part VIII"[/thread].

Watch the video to see what I did on September 06, 2007.

ER2PostionTradeSep06

This trade was a good position trade which would have been even better if I
had traded more than one contract. After having climbed up to the 2nd SD
above the VWAP, the price action continued on down below the VWAP to the
1st SD and then evenutally to the 2nd SD, a very typical signature of a
symmetric distribution.

Edited February 17, 2008 by jperl

+ Quote

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Soultrader Posted September 10, 2007 

Very interesting video Jerry. Thank you very much. I will be spending some time
this week pouring and reviewing your threads so I can hopefully understand
your methodology better and have some good questions for you.

Market Wizard

+ 12
3710 posts

+ Quote

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Soultrader Posted September 13, 2007 

Hi Jerry,

Do you ever use the average of the past few trading sessions for the opening
play? Or do you only take the previous session data?

Market Wizard

+ 12
3710 posts

+ Quote

jperl Posted September 13, 2007 

, Soultrader said:

Do you ever use the average of the past few trading sessions for the
opening play? Or do you only take the previous session data?

Members
+ 10
363 posts I usually use only the last trading session for a position trade. Once I decide on
a trade entry, I will then take a look at the VWAP and SD's from previous 2 days,
1 week, 1 month, 2 months and 1 yr data to see if there is anything that would
block the progress of the trade. I haven't gotten around to preparing a thread
on this for want of time. Probably do so when I get back from my China trip.

+ Quote

Dogpile Posted September 14, 2007 

not much discussion in 'market profile' area.... thought I would point out that we

D
closed today with a reasonably 'normal' distribution, price closed right on
VWAP at 1498.50 and PVP was close by.

here is an example of combining statistics with a pattern or two. I put a short on

Market Wizard
very late in day at 1498.00 to play for an overnight gap. we've had 3 up days in
a row but I am unimpressed by the last few days. I did try a long this morning
+ 10
584 posts but it didn't fill (missed by a tick) so I took the day off. I came back and this
Head & Shoulder pattern had become evident but I did not want to fight the
market while it built higher value so I waited until very late in the day to enter as
the market appeared to find a home at 98.00 and could come out of this
balance to the downside overnight. Effectively, I want to find a short in the
morning and this trade is a hedge in case the short works overnight instead of
in the morning (both could still happen too).

+ Quote

darthtrader Posted September 14, 2007 

, jperl said:

Once I decide on a trade entry, I will then take a look at the VWAP and
SD's from previous 2 days, 1 week, 1 month, 2 months and 1 yr data to see
if there is anything that would block the progress of the trade.

Members
+ 10
344 posts Jerry, does this apply to all your trades or just position/breakout/no skew to the
market trades?Or even just position trades/no skew?

Also, if yesterdays close is a HUP I take the high and low of yesterday is also a
HUP?

If I ask you any stupid questions I'm sorry. This is kind of why I never did good
in math classes in highschool or college. I get the first few videos but I learn
top down then fill in the details where your building on the details.

Have fun in china, I don't know how you could not. That should be an
interesting time to say the least.

When you get back though, HUP theory, please? I'm dieing to understand what
you see there.

+ Quote

jperl Posted September 15, 2007 

, darthtrader said:

Jerry, does this apply to all your trades or just position/breakout/no skew
to the market trades?Or even just position trades/no skew?

Also, if yesterdays close is a HUP I take the high and low of yesterday is
Members also a HUP?
+ 10
363 posts When you get back though, HUP theory, please? I'm dieing to understand
what you see there.

You are right on track Darth. There are two kinds of HUP, static and dynamic.
The static ones are for example yesterdays high, low and close. The dynamic
ones are all the VWAP and SD's from yesterday, 2 days ago, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1
month 2 month, 1 year ago. I think you can see that how these cluster will be
important for determining price action. The rest of the story you will have to
wait until I come back.

+ Quote

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Karish Posted October 28, 2007 

Hi Jerry, great thread I hope you will find soon the time to explain us your HUP
concept.

In the meanwhile I invest the time to code the theory (I am using AMIBROKER)
and practicing, no doubt it improved my stats.

I wonder if and how we can implement Market statistics trading strategy to

Members
longer term trading style such as swing of several days?
+ 10
31 posts
Thx

Karish

+ Quote

BlowFish Posted October 28, 2007 

Im glad someone mentioned HUP's again before I did! I have a broad idea what

B
they are but do wonder how Jerry uses them in trade decisions. Last I recall he
was not quite sure how to present this. I hope that he comes up with something
as I have enjoyed this series immensely and miss my Market Stats fix!

Market Wizard
Cheers.

+ 10
3308 posts

+ Quote

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jperl Posted October 28, 2007 

, Karish said:

Hi Jerry, great thread I hope you will find soon the time to explain us your
HUP concept.

I wonder if and how we can implement Market statistics trading strategy to

Members longer term trading style such as swing of several days?
+ 10
363 posts Thx

Karish

I'm still working on a presentation for HUP. Hope to have the beginning of it
sometime this week.

As far as swing trading goes, I don't do swing trading, but longer term stat
analyis should be useful for swing trading as for day trading. The standard
deviations will be considerably larger so you will have to have a larger risk
factor to do swing trades.

+ Quote

ckait Posted October 28, 2007 

I dont know if this is the right place to ask but does anybody have a volume

C
histogram that prints on the Y axis intra day for trade station they would be
willing to share?

Members
+ 10
116 posts

+ Quote

darthtrader Posted October 29, 2007 

, BlowFish said:

miss my Market Stats fix!

Members haha, yea maybe we need a little methadone maintance hit before the big HUP
+ 10 fix.
344 posts

Jerry, any chance you could do a video on how you use the longer time frame
stats? I think I remember you said you look at longer time frames stats even for
intraday, maybe that ties in with hups though.

+ Quote

jperl Posted October 29, 2007 

, darthtrader said:

haha, yea maybe we need a little methadone maintance hit before the big
HUP fix.

Jerry, any chance you could do a video on how you use the longer time
Members frame stats? I think I remember you said you look at longer time frames
+ 10 stats even for intraday, maybe that ties in with hups though.
363 posts

Well if you read the position trading thread, you saw I used the previous days
volume distribution data to decide on a trade for today. That's an example of
using a longer time frame for today's trades.

You will see that HUP is an extension of that

+ Quote

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Dogpile Posted October 29, 2007 

, Quote

D I dont know if this is the right place to ask but does anybody have a
volume histogram that prints on the Y axis intra day for trade station they
would be willing to share?

Market Wizard

+ 10 I have inquired on the Tradestation forum about this and they don't have it.
584 posts They have an analysis study called 'activity bars' but they aren't any good. that
is what they reference though when you ask them about it.

what I do is screen-capture the daily intraday volume histogram from the

'matrix' window each day. I then put notes on it and save them in a folder for
future access.

I have actually found this process to be quite insightful. I summarize the daily
daily volume distributions by hand into an excel spreadsheet. Doing this
process every day really helps me understand 'value' (higher-volume) zones
that tend to get re-tested and imprints on your brain important pivots.

+ Quote

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Râlex Posted November 15, 2007 

Is it possible to put in relation the differents Market Profile openings and the

R
Jerry' strategy ?

Or, Jerry, would you have managed to use tools of your system to get ready for
types of days of trading (as Dalton) ?
Members
+ 10 As the hubs !
15 posts

With impatience, best regards.

bye Alex

+ Quote

jperl Posted November 15, 2007 

, Râlex said:

Is it possible to put in relation the differents Market Profile openings and

the Jerry' strategy ?

Members
Or, Jerry, would you have managed to use tools of your system to get
+ 10
363 posts ready for types of days of trading (as Dalton) ?

As the hubs !

With impatience, best regards.

bye Alex

Alex,

The only tools I use to get ready for today's trading are the HUP lines from
previous trading days, weeks,month and year. I don't use anything else. These
are my support/resistance lines that will keep me in a trade or tell me to exit

+ Quote

Râlex Posted December 23, 2007 

Hello to everybody and to you, jerry,

R I wondered how reacts jerry's system when the day is a trend day!

Members
+ 10 How react the standard deviations ? What are then the points of entry ?
15 posts

Is there a means to foresee this type of day and trade with it ?

Too, I wish you the good end of year and merry Christmas !

+ Quote

jperl Posted January 5, 2008 

, Râlex said:

Or, Jerry, would you have managed to use tools of your system to get
ready for types of days of trading (as Dalton) ?

As the hubs !
Members
+ 10 bye Alex
363 posts

Other than putting the HUP lines on my chart, I don't do anything else to begin
the day. I just follow the statisitics and what the price action tells me.

I will be cautious around key economic events that usually come out around
10:00 EST, but other than that there is nothing else that I do premarket.

+ Quote

unicorn Posted February 5, 2008 

, jperl said:

Well if you read the position trading thread, you saw I used the previous
days volume distribution data to decide on a trade for today. That's an
example of using a longer time frame for today's trades.

Members
+ 10
165 posts
Hello Jerry;

On certain days it appears that using the previous day's volume distribution
data, is better suited to the price action, to decide on a trade even in the
afternoon.

Have you developed a process to identify when this course of action is

appropriate

OR

do you have a means to recognize this fact early in the day, and thus not switch
to using today's volume distribution data?

Thank you.

Unicorn.

+ Quote

jperl Posted February 6, 2008 

, unicorn said:

Hello Jerry;

On certain days it appears that using the previous day's volume

Members
distribution data, is better suited to the price action, to decide on a trade
+ 10
363 posts even in the afternoon.

Have you developed a process to identify when this course of action is

appropriate

OR

do you have a means to recognize this fact early in the day, and thus not
switch to using today's volume distribution data?

Thank you.

Unicorn.

Yesterdays distribution would always be more important than today's, early in

the trading day during the period when today's distribution is still developing. If
there is rapid price action early in the day, today's price action is not going to
help you much. You can tell this by comparing the range of each bar to the
standard deviation. When the bar range is the same size as the SD, you can't
tell much by looking at today's statistics. So you either have to go to a faster
time scale, or use a distribution that has developed over 1 or more days such
that the SD is larger than the bars range.

+ Quote

unicorn Posted February 8, 2008 

, jperl said:

Yesterdays distribution would always be more important than today's,

early in the trading day during the period when today's distribution is still
developing.

Members
+ 10
165 posts Hi Jerry;

When watching yesterday's and today's probability function and statistics, and
both lead to the same trade assessment, the decision is easy.

How do you deal with situations when one trade assessment contradicts the
other?

Do you go with today's assessment or yesterday's ?

I guess yesterday's statistics over-ride during the morning and noon.

How do you decide in the afternoon?

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