7 Day Tropical Cyclone Outlook - NW Shelf

Issue Time: 06:20 Sun 24 May 2020 WST Next Issue: 15:05 Sun 24 May 2020 WST
Prepared for: Woodside Prepared by: Austen Watkins Phone: 08 9263 2205
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone within 500 nm of 20S 115E:
Sun, 24 May Mon 25 Tue 26 Wed 27 Thu 28 Fri 29 Sat 30
Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low

Ex-TC Mangga (17U) is a Very Low risk of being a cyclone in the region. High risk of gale force
winds for far western Pilbara and adjacent offshore water and coastal Gascoyne Sunday.
The circulation from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mangga (17U) is now indiscernible as the remnants began interacting with a trough off
the west coast yesterday. There is no risk of any cyclone development in the next 7 days thus the risk is set at Very Low.
What is evident this morning is a deepening low pressure trough to the west which is approaching the NW Cape and Gascoyne
coast area. The passage of this weather system brings a High (70%) risk of gale force winds over the far west Pilbara coast (west
of Onslow) and adjacent offshore waters and along the west coast this morning and afternoon. Although it would not be a tropical
cyclone, locations in this region may experience impacts similar to that of a category 1 system. Depending on the development of
the deep low pressure trough, storm force winds (Category 2 equivalent) are possible (Low 10% risk) off the NW Cape area or
along the Gascoyne coast for a period Sunday afternoon however a Very Low(<5%) risk at any site. The system weakens as it
pushes east past NW Cape towards the central Pilbara and the risk of mean gale force winds diminishes during Sunday evening.
The central and eastern Pilbara is likely to experience the impacts of a strong trough passage late Sunday into Monday with east
to northeasterly winds shifting west to southwesterly in the wake. The environment is unstable as vigorous thunderstorm activity is
currently evident near the trough. Thunderstorms with the trough passage bring the risk of strong squalls to 60kts. The risk of
mean gale force winds with the trough passage over central and eastern Pilbara coast is Very Low (<5%), however rated around
a 5% chance over offshore waters.
Likelihood of tropical system location
LESS MORE
Rating for NW Shelf (within 500 nm of 20S 115E)

Sunday 24 May: Very Low (< 5%)

The remnants of Ex-TC Mangga (17U) have combined with a

trough to deepen it off the west coast as shown by the cloud mass
off the west coast. The deep trough will move east reaching the
NW cape area later Sunday afternoon.

Gales likely over the far western Pilbara and adjacent offshore
water and coastal Gascoyne. Strong squalls to 60 knots are
possible from thunderstorms with the passage of the deep trough.

Monday 25 May: Very Low (< 5%)

The shading indicates the position of the deep low pressure

trough which will move through the central and eastern Pilbara
early in the morning.

Strong squalls to 60 knots are possible from thunderstorms with

the passage of the trough.

No cyclone will be in tropical cyclone.

Tuesday 26 May: Very Low (< 5%)

The shading indicates the position of the deep low pressure

trough which will move through the western Kimberley waters
early in the morning.

No cyclone will be in tropical cyclone.

© Bureau of Meteorology (2020) Page 1

7 Day Tropical Cyclone Outlook - NW Shelf Issue Time: 06:20 Sun 24 May 2020 WST
Likelihood of tropical system location
LESS MORE
Rating for NW Shelf (within 500 nm of 20S 115E)

Wednesday 27 May: Very Low (< 5%)

Thursday 28 May: Very Low (< 5%)

Friday 29 May: Very Low (< 5%)

Saturday 30 May: Very Low (< 5%)

NOTES:
1 Range ring(s) on the maps are for within 500 nautical miles of the site(s).
2 The outlook ratings indicate the probability of a tropical cyclone being within the forecast region (within 500 nm of 20S 115E) at some
time during that day. The images indicate the likely location a significant tropical system during that day (local time). The forecast region is
indicated on the maps.
3 Ratings are for the following probability ranges: Very Low is less than 5%, Low is 5% to 20%, Moderate is 20% to 50%, High is above 50%.
4 The maps in this product are based on data and services from the ECMWF. The maps contain raw computer model output that has not been
adjusted by forecasters.

© Bureau of Meteorology (2020) Page 2