TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST

Forecast No. 6 for Tropical Cyclone Mangga (17U)

Issue Time: 1017 Fri 22 May 2020 AWST Next Issue: 1630 Fri 22 May 2020 AWST
Discussion Prepared for Woodside Issued by Austen Watkins Contact Phone 08 9263 2205
Tropical Cyclone Mannga named
overnight and well northwest of the
region. It is not expected to impact the
WA coast as a tropical cyclone.
Moderate risk of gale force winds for
coastal Gascoyne and far west Pilbara
Sunday and Monday.

Details at 0800 AWST Fri 22 May 2020

Cyclone Name Tropical Cyclone Mangga (17U)
Severity Category 1
Max Winds Forecast 35 gusting to 50 kn
Upper Bound Winds 40 gusting to 55 kn
Central Pressure 995 hPa
Recent Movement SSE 8 kn
Location 10.4S 93.5E
Location Accuracy Accurate within 60 nm
Radius to Gales 180 nm
The grey shaded track uncertainty areas show the probable range of
tropical cyclone tracks at 24, 48, 72 and 120 hours. The impacts of the
tropical cyclone may extend outside of the uncertainty area on occasion.
Forecast Commentary
Tropical Cyclone Mangga (17U) lies northwest of of the Cocos islands. Mangga is expected to be initially slow moving to the south today
before adopting a more rapid southeast motion towards northwest WA overnight tonight, though still well offshore from the WA coast.
On Saturday, Mangga is captured by a strong upper trough and continues to track to the southeast, entering an unfavourable environment
where the system loses it tropical cyclone characteristics. The remnant tropical low will continue barreling in towards the northwest coast of
WA on Sunday.
As it approaches the NW Cape/Gascoyne coast on Sunday, the system interacts with cold front and trough to the south and becomes
captured into, what will be a complex weather feature. A consistent circulation associated with the remnant low is hard to track after this and
because of this the forecast track now ceases at 8am Sunday offshore from the Gascoyne coast.
Despite this, the approach of the system, followed by the transition in a broader significant weather feature is likely to cause gale force winds
to develop from early Sunday over the far west Pilbara (most likley west of Onslow) and Gascoyne coasts, as well as offshore sites which may
persist into Monday if the system moves slower than currently predicted. There is a chance that storm force winds (Category 2 equivalent)
may occur for a period about the NW Cape and Gascoyne coast, though more likely offshore. However, the risk of this occurring would be
Very Low (<5%) for any given site, and such winds would only be expected to last for 2-3 hours.
A west to southwesterly change will develop in wake of the system, after which the winds should start to gradually ease.
The upper bound winds are based on the system steadily developing until Saturday in a favourable environment well to the northwest of WA,
and reaching Category 2 intensity. The system is then captured by the upper trough and moves rapidly in a southeasterly direction towards the
northwest WA coast. Although it wont classified as a tropical cyclone once it approaches the northwest coast, the potential strength of the
winds on the eastern side coupled with the rapid motion could allow for Category 2 equivalent winds to be maintained or develop near the NW
Cape region or Gascoyne coast.
Current and Forecast Positions
Lead Date/Time Lat Lon Position Speed of Central Cat Maximum Winds Gale Radii (nm)
Time AWST Accuracy Movement Pressure Forecast (kn) Upper Bound (kn) NE SE SW NW
(nm) (kn) (hpa)
+00hr 0800 Fri 22 May 10.4S 93.5E 60 8 995 1 35 gusting to 50 40 gusting to 55 180 - - 150
+06hr 1400 Fri 22 May 11.5S 94.2E 70 13 994 1 40 gusting to 55 45 gusting to 65 180 120 - 150
+12hr 2000 Fri 22 May 12.7S 95.1E 85 15 995 1 40 gusting to 55 50 gusting to 70 180 120 - -
+18hr 0200 Sat 23 May 14.0S 96.3E 95 17 996 1 40 gusting to 55 50 gusting to 70 180 120 - -
+24hr 0800 Sat 23 May 15.5S 97.8E 110 21 996 1 40 gusting to 55 55 gusting to 75 180 120 - -
+30hr 1400 Sat 23 May 17.1S 99.7E 120 24 996 L 40 gusting to 55 55 gusting to 75 180 120 - -
+36hr 2000 Sat 23 May 18.6S 102.0E 130 26 996 L 40 gusting to 55 55 gusting to 75 180 120 - -
+42hr 0200 Sun 24 May 20.1S 104.6E 140 29 994 L 40 gusting to 55 55 gusting to 75 180 120 - -
+48hr 0800 Sun 24 May 21.7S 107.7E 150 33 994 L 40 gusting to 55 55 gusting to 75 180 150 - -

Range and Bearing from Key Locations Page 1

Range and Bearing from Key Locations
Forecast Date/Time AWST Broome Calliance Exmouth GWA Julimar
+00hr 0800 Fri 22 May 285° (WNW) 1735 nm 279° (W) 1665 nm 300° (WNW) 1378 nm 293° (WNW) 1416 nm 295° (WNW) 1380 nm
+06hr 1400 Fri 22 May 283° (WNW) 1673 nm 277° (W) 1609 nm 299° (WNW) 1304 nm 291° (WNW) 1347 nm 293° (WNW) 1309 nm
+12hr 2000 Fri 22 May 281° (WNW) 1601 nm 274° (W) 1546 nm 297° (WNW) 1221 nm 289° (WNW) 1269 nm 291° (WNW) 1230 nm
+18hr 0200 Sat 23 May 279° (W) 1519 nm 271° (W) 1473 nm 295° (WNW) 1126 nm 287° (WNW) 1180 nm 289° (WNW) 1139 nm
+24hr 0800 Sat 23 May 276° (W) 1415 nm 268° (W) 1381 nm 292° (WNW) 1007 nm 283° (WNW) 1069 nm 286° (WNW) 1026 nm
+30hr 1400 Sat 23 May 272° (W) 1291 nm 263° (W) 1271 nm 290° (WNW) 866 nm 279° (W) 937 nm 282° (WNW) 891 nm
+36hr 2000 Sat 23 May 268° (W) 1156 nm 258° (WSW) 1151 nm 286° (WNW) 713 nm 275° (W) 794 nm 277° (W) 745 nm
+42hr 0200 Sun 24 May 263° (W) 1009 nm 251° (WSW) 1025 nm 282° (WNW) 545 nm 268° (W) 640 nm 271° (W) 588 nm
+48hr 0800 Sun 24 May 255° (WSW) 853 nm 242° (WSW) 899 nm 272° (W) 359 nm 255° (WSW) 479 nm 257° (WSW) 423 nm

Range and Bearing from Key Locations

Forecast Date/Time AWST KGP Karratha NRC NY OKHA
+00hr 0800 Fri 22 May 294° (WNW) 1481 nm 295° (WNW) 1488 nm 293° (WNW) 1426 nm 299° (WNW) 1361 nm 293° (WNW) 1442 nm
+06hr 1400 Fri 22 May 293° (WNW) 1411 nm 293° (WNW) 1418 nm 291° (WNW) 1357 nm 298° (WNW) 1288 nm 291° (WNW) 1374 nm
+12hr 2000 Fri 22 May 291° (WNW) 1331 nm 291° (WNW) 1338 nm 289° (WNW) 1280 nm 296° (WNW) 1206 nm 288° (WNW) 1297 nm
+18hr 0200 Sat 23 May 289° (WNW) 1241 nm 289° (WNW) 1247 nm 286° (WNW) 1191 nm 294° (WNW) 1112 nm 286° (WNW) 1208 nm
+24hr 0800 Sat 23 May 286° (WNW) 1127 nm 286° (WNW) 1134 nm 283° (WNW) 1080 nm 291° (WNW) 994 nm 283° (WNW) 1097 nm
+30hr 1400 Sat 23 May 282° (WNW) 992 nm 283° (WNW) 998 nm 279° (W) 948 nm 288° (WNW) 855 nm 279° (W) 966 nm
+36hr 2000 Sat 23 May 278° (W) 845 nm 279° (W) 850 nm 274° (W) 805 nm 284° (WNW) 703 nm 274° (W) 823 nm
+42hr 0200 Sun 24 May 273° (W) 685 nm 273° (W) 690 nm 267° (W) 652 nm 279° (W) 537 nm 268° (W) 669 nm
+48hr 0800 Sun 24 May 262° (W) 513 nm 263° (W) 516 nm 255° (WSW) 492 nm 267° (W) 357 nm 255° (WSW) 509 nm

Range and Bearing from Key Locations

Forecast Date/Time AWST Pluto Pyxis Rowley Shoals
+00hr 0800 Fri 22 May 294° (WNW) 1394 nm 294° (WNW) 1380 nm 284° (WNW) 1602 nm
+06hr 1400 Fri 22 May 293° (WNW) 1324 nm 292° (WNW) 1310 nm 282° (WNW) 1541 nm
+12hr 2000 Fri 22 May 290° (WNW) 1245 nm 290° (WNW) 1231 nm 280° (W) 1471 nm
+18hr 0200 Sat 23 May 288° (WNW) 1155 nm 288° (WNW) 1141 nm 277° (W) 1391 nm
+24hr 0800 Sat 23 May 285° (WNW) 1042 nm 285° (WNW) 1029 nm 274° (W) 1291 nm
+30hr 1400 Sat 23 May 281° (W) 908 nm 281° (W) 896 nm 269° (W) 1171 nm
+36hr 2000 Sat 23 May 276° (W) 763 nm 276° (W) 752 nm 264° (W) 1041 nm
+42hr 0200 Sun 24 May 270° (W) 607 nm 269° (W) 596 nm 258° (WSW) 902 nm
+48hr 0800 Sun 24 May 256° (WSW) 443 nm 255° (WSW) 435 nm 248° (WSW) 761 nm

kn=knots, nm=nautical miles, hPa=hectopascals, AWST = Australian Western Standard Time, all degrees are decimal degrees, wind gusts will be 40% higher than winds

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Bureau of Meteorology 1017 Fri 22 May 2020 AWST Tropical Cyclone Mangga (17U)