Modals for Deduction

Use and Form: 

The following modals can be used to make guesses about a present situation.

must + infinitive
Use this when you make a guess and you are almost certain that your guess is correct.
‘Where’s John?’
‘He’s not here. He must be in the bathroom.’

may + infinitive
might + infinitive
could + infinitive
Use this when you make a guess but you are only suggesting one possibility. You are not certain you are
correct.
‘Where’s John?’
‘He’s not here. He may be in the bathroom, or he might be in the kitchen, or he could be outside.’

may not + infinitive

might not + infinitive
Use this when you make a guess about what is not true, but you are only suggesting one possibility. You
are not certain you are correct.
‘Where’s John?’
‘He’s not here. He may not be at work today.’

NOTE: Do not use could not here.

can’t + infinitive
Use this when you make a guess about what is not true, and you are almost certain that your guess is
correct.
‘Where’s John? Is he in the kitchen?’
‘No, he can’t be. I was in there a minute ago.’

NOTE: you cannot use: mustn’t + infinitive to make deductions about what is not true.

Common Mistakes:
1. Many students do not take the opportunity to use these structures when they can.
Maybe your bag is in the classroom.        =>           Your bag might be in the classroom.

Form
subject + modal auxiliary verb + verb bare infinitive
subject + modal auxiliary verb + be + verb-ing
It must be the postman.
She might be having a bath.
subject + modal auxiliary verb + have + verb past participle
subject + modal auxiliary verb + have + been + verb-ing
They could have got in through the window.

General use of modal verbs of deduction

We can use certain modal auxiliary verbs to make deductions, i.e. to make guesses based on known facts.
We can make deductions about the present:
'Where's Joanna?'
'She's not here. She must be in the kitchen.'
We can also make deductions about the past :
'How do you think the burglar got in?'
'He must have climbed through the window.'
We use different modal auxiliary verbs depending on how strong our guess is:
He must be in the kitchen. - Very sure - 99%
He can't be in the garden. - Very sure - we think it's impossible - 99%
He may / might / could be in his bedroom. We think it's possible - 50%

Modals of Deduction and Speculation
 We can use these modal verbs (also called modals of deduction, speculation or certainty) when we
want to make a guess about something. We choose the verb depending on how sure we are.

1: Talking about the present:

must / might / could / may / can’t + infinitive

For example:
I am waiting for Amanda with another friend, Danny.
I ask:                   Where is Amanda?
Danny guesses:
 She must be on her way here. (I’m fairly sure this is a good guess)
 She might arrive soon. (maybe)
 She could be lost. (maybe)
 She may be in the wrong place. (maybe)
 She can’t be at home. (I’m fairly sure this isn’t true)
Notice that the opposite of ‘must‘ is ‘can’t in this case.

Will / won’t
We use will and won’t when we are very sure:
 He will be at school now.
Should / shouldn’t
Should and shouldn’t are used to make an assumption about what is probably true, if everything is as we
expect:
 They should get there by now.
 It shouldn’t take long to drive here.
This use of should isn’t usually used for negative events. Instead, it’s a better idea to use will:
 The underground will be very busy now (not: ‘should be’).
Can
Can is used for something that is generally possible, something we know sometimes happens:
 The cost of living can be high in Japan.
Can is not used to talk about specific possibilities:
 Mom could be in the supermarket (not: ‘can be’).
2: Using modal verbs to talk about the past:
must / might / could / may / can’t + have + past participle
 must have + past participle
 might / might not have + past participle
 could / couldn’t have + past participle
 may / may not have + past participle
 can’t have + past participle

For example:
You:   Where was Sandra last night?
Maria:
 She must have forgotten about our appointment.
 She might have worked late.
 She could have lost her way.
 She may have gotten sick.
 She can’t have stayed at home.
Will / won’t + have + past participle
Will and won’t / will not + have + past participle are used for past certainty (compare with present use
of ‘will’ above):
 The package will have arrived before now.
Should + have + past participle
Should + have + past participle can be used to make an assumption about something that has probably
happened, if everything is as we expect (compare with present use of ‘should’ above):
 The plane should have left by now

Could
We can use could + infinitive to talk about a general possibility in the past (compare with the use of ‘can’
above):
 Labor could be low in the sixteenth century.
This is not used to talk about specific possibilities in the past (instead we use could + have + past
participle):
 He could have been working late (not: ‘could be’. As this is a specific possibility, ‘could be’ is
present tense)

Might, may, could, must and can’t

Meaning and use
We can use the modal verbs might, may, could, must and can’t for talking about what we think is
possible or true in the present. We don’t know for sure, so we make guesses and suggestions using the
information that we have. Usually you can use might, may and could in the same way.
 There might/may/could be life forms on Mars.
 There’s some gas on the planet that may/might/could suggest this.
We can also use might, may and could for talking about what we think was possible in the past.
 NASA says it may/might/could have been suitable for life in the past.
Might not (mightn’t) and may not are used for talking about negative possibility.
 Their information might not/may not be correct.
 They mightn’t have got correct data.
But couldn’t is different. It means that something is completely impossible.
 Other scientists say that there couldn’t be life on Mars.
 The gas couldn’t be coming from living organisms.
We use the modal verbs must and can’t in the present and the past when we believe strongly that
something is certain.
 Oh, it can’t be true! (I believe strongly that it isn’t true).
 There must be another explanation. (I believe there’s another explanation.)
 They must have made a mistake! (I believe they have made a mistake.)
Form
Present positive
The present positive is might / may / could / must + the infinitive of the verb be or another verb. Or the
continuous be + verb-ing.
 The information might be correct.
 They must know that it isn’t possible.
 Bacteria-like organisms could be producing the gas.
Present negative
The present negative is might not / mightn’t / may not / can’t / couldn’t + the infinitive of the verb be
or another verb. Or the continuous be + verb-ing.
 Their information may not be correct.
 They can’t have got the correct data.
 The gas couldn’t be coming from living organisms.
Past positive
The past positive is might / may / could / must + have + been or the past participle of another verb. Or
the continuous been + verb-ing.
 There must have been water on Mars in the past.
 Something might have existed there.
  Who knows what could have been living in that lake?
Past negative
The past negative is might not / mightn’t / may not / can’t / couldn’t + have + been or the past
participle of another verb. Or the continuous been + verb-ing.
 There may not have been anything in the lake.
 Scientists can’t have found anything definite.
 They mightn’t have been looking in the right area.
Take note: questions
We don’t usually form questions about what is possible or true with might, may or must. It’s more
common to use Could or Do you think …?
 Could the data be incorrect? Do you think it’s incorrect?
Take note: can’t and couldn’t
We can use can’t have and couldn’t have in the same way.
 They can’t /couldn’t have found anything definite.
Take note: mustn’t
We don’t use mustn’t to make guesses about what is possible or true. We use can’t instead.
 These figures don’t add up. They can’t be correct.
NOT: They mustn’t be correct.

Present
Must, can't and couldn't + infinitive are used to express deductions about present events:

That child is really talented. His parents must be proud of him.

It's only 10 o'clock. He can't/couldn't be at home.

Past
Must, can't and couldn't + perfect infinitive are used to express deductions about past events:

That dress looks expensive. It must have cost a fortune.

It can't/couldn't have been Carla you saw this morning. She is away on holiday.

Very probable must

Probable should
may
Possible might
could
Possible may not
(negative) might not
Very improbable couldn't
(negative) can't
 must not

Affirmative statements Negative statements

Past
Subject Modal ‘have’
participle Past
Subject Modal ‘have’
must participle
I / We / You / may not
should may
They have started I/We / You / might not
might
He / She / It They couldn't have done
could
He / She / It can't
must not