Claire Quick

Period 1

5/21/20

Klekas

The Skittles Project

Intro

This project will compile all the skills we have learned this past semester including

drawing conclusions using confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, and organize and analyze

this information. The procedure for this project involved first each student buying a normal 2.17-

ounce bag of Original Skittles, and recording the number of each color in your bag. After this

we compiled the data of each student into a spreadsheet.

Data Collection

Red- 15 Orange-11 Yellow- 18 Green-4 Purple- 10 Total- 58

Confidence Interval

A confidence interval refers to the probability that a population parameter will fall between two

set values, the lower and upper bound. Confidence intervals measure the degree of uncertainty or

certainty in a sampling method.

Construct a 99% confidence interval estimate for the true proportion of yellow candies

1. We are trying to estimate p = the true proportion of yellow skittles. Our best guess is p^= .

31but because of sampling variability, we are unlikely to be correct. So, we will calculate a 99%

z-interval for p.
2. Conditions

a. random sample: yes

b. independence condition: yes

Assume population >1160 so that sample is < 5% of the population

c. Normality Condition? n > 30 or population is approximately normal. yes

If normality condition is not met say we hope that the population is normal but we will proceed

with caution.

3. 99% CI =^p ± z∗ √❑ = ( .15387, .46682)

4. Thus, I am 99% confident that the interval from .15387 to .46682 captures the true proportion

of yellow skitles.

Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the true mean number of candies per bag

1. We are trying to estimate μ = the average number of skittles per 2.17 0z bag. Our best guess is

x= 60.55 but because of sampling variability, we are unlikely to be correct. So, we will calculate

a 95% t-interval for μ.

2. Conditions

a. random sample? yes

b. sample < 5% of population? yes

Assume population ________

c. Normality-large sample size? n>30 or is population approximately normal? Yes

s
3. 95% CI =x ± t = (59.151 , 61.946 )
√❑

Again fill in the formula, create interval and draw a curve and list the df.

4. Thus, I am 95% confident that the interval from 59.151 to 61.946 captures the true average

number of skittles per 2.17oz bag.

Discuss and interpret the results of each of your TWO interval estimates. Include neatly written

and scanned copies of your work.

Hypothesis Tests

The purpose of hypothesis testing is to determine whether there is enough statistical evidence in

favor of a certain hypothesis, about a parameter.

Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that 20% of all Skittles candies are red.

1. At first glance, it appears that the true proportion p of all red skittles is greater than .2 since

since ^p =.26 However, it is also possible that the true proportion is p=.2 and we got a sample

proportion this high because of sampling variability. To decide, we will conduct a 1 sample z test

for p (α =.05)

2. Ho: p = .2

Ha: p > .2
3. Conditions:

a) Random sample of 58 skittles ?

b) Independence n<=.05N? yes assuming N>1160

c) Normalities n^p(1-^p)> 10

4. P( ^p > .20) = P[ z > p√−P

^
❑ ]=p(z>.20)
≈ 1.116

z= 1.116

p=.1322

Fill in the formula for the test statistic but get the value for the test statistics and p-value from the

calculator. Draw one sided picture and shade. The 2 is left out for 1 sided tests.

5. Since the p-value >α ,we do not reject the null hypothesis

Use a 0.01 significance level to test the claim that the mean number of candies in a bag of

Skittles is 55.

1. At first glance, it appears that the true average μ of all red skittles is greater than 55 since since

x = 60.55 However, it is also possible that the true average is μ=55 and we got a sample

proportion this high because of sampling variability. To decide, we will conduct a 1 sample z test

for p (α =.01)

2. Ho: p = 55

Ha: p > 55
3. Conditions:

a) Random sample 31 skittle packs

b) Independence n<=.05N? yes assuming N>1160

c) Normalities yes n^p(1-^p)> 10

x−μ❑o
t ❑o=
4. s
√❑ ❑

T-TEST

df= n-1= 30

t= 8.106

p=.00000000238

Fill in the formula for the test statistic but get the value for the test statistics and p-value from the

calculator. Draw one sided picture and shade.

5. Since the p-value < .01,we reject the null hypothesis

Reflection

This project really helped me to look deeper into confidence interval estimates and hypothesis

tests, and specifically the conditions in order to use them. As I went step by step and checked

each of the conditions before using my calculator and the equations to get the mathematical

answer I was able to understand and pay more attention to the conditions. I think this project also

really helped me learn how to organize all my work well, and prove my math point rather than

just simply finding the answer which will help me in the future.