Transport Planning - Lecture 2 - Traffic

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C Slovak University of Technology

E Faculty of Civil Engineering
– Dpt. of Transportation Engineering
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Ing. Peter Ľos, PhD.
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R Subject #4210 TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
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T Lecture 2 – Traffic, Counts & Forecasting
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L Study programme: Civil Engineering
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Transportation Planning - Lecture 2 1
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E Lecture outline
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S  Traffic counts
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 Fundamental traffic flow characteristics
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R  Traffic volume studies
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I  Traffic forecasting
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L  Capacity and service volumes
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E Traffic flow types
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 Traffic is a heteroeneous flow of different types
S of vehicles that use the same infrastructure
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U  Uninterupted traffic flows (continuous)
appear when no external factors are influencing traffic
B except internal factors(vehicle & road characteristics)
R  Applicable to highways and long sections of other
A roads between intersections
T
I  Interrupted traffic flows (in platoons)
S appear when traffic is periodically disturbed by
L external factors (STOP & YIELD signs & traffic lights)
A  Applicable in urban areas with many intersections
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E Fundamental traffic flow characteristics
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 Macroscopic characteristics
S  Speed/Velocity – u (S) [kilometers per hour – km/h]
T
U  Density – k (D) [vehicles per kilometer – veh/km]
 Flow rate (Intensity) – q (Q) [vehicles per hour – veh/h]
B
R
 Macroscopic fundamental traffic flow
A characteristics are inter-related:
T q=uk
I v=q/k
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L
k=q/u
A  Microscopic characteristics
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 Headways and Spacing (dispersion in platoons)
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E Fundamental traffic diagrams (1)
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 observed  models
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T k, q k, u k, u q, u
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I q, u k, q
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– Uf – Free Flow Speed
 Speed / Density
Speed (km/h)
S
 k 
T u  u f 1  
 k j 
U  Density (veh/km) Kj - Jam Density
Capacity
Qm – Optimal flow
B  Flow / Density Uncongested
FLow (veh/h)
/ Stable Flow
R  2 
k
q  uf k   Congested
A
 k  / Instable Flow
T  j  Density (veh/km)
Km – Optimal density Kj – Jam Density
I Uf – Free Flow Speed Capacity
S  Flow / Speed
Speed (km/h)
Uncongested
L / Stable Flow
 u 2  Um – Optimal Speed
A q  k j u   Congested
 u  / Instable Flow
V  f 
A Flow (veh/h) Qm – Optimal flow

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E Speed
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 Time mean speed – arithmetical average of speeds
S of vehicles measured instantly at certain spot
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 Space mean speed – harmonic average of speeds
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of vehicles traversing a section of certain length
 always less then time mean speed
B
 more useful for traffic engineering applications
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1 n
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n
 li
t 
1
t1l1  t 2l2  ...  t nln 
T u  i 1 n
t
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S  Journey speed – effective speed, with all delays (stops)
L total length divided by total journey time

A  Running speed – net speed (in motion), excluding delays

V  total length divided by running (operation time)
A  important for PT operators

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E Density, Headways & Spacing
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 Density (k) is the number of vehicles occupying
S infrastructure in a given instant moment
T  hard to measure directly, but can be calculated:
 through measuring of headways
U n q
 from fundamental equatation k 
(flow rate / space mean speed) l u
B
R  Jam density is the maximal possible density,
A when the traffic is in standstill (flow is zero)
T  Time headway (h) can be measured directly
I – time interval between passes of successive vehicles
S
L  Spacing (s) can be derived from previous
A – distance between fronts of successive vehicles in the stream
V s = 1000 / k s = h / 3600
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E Flow rate & Volume & Capacity
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 Traffic flow rate (intensity)
S  the instaneous number of vehicles passing an infrastructure
T element in a given time interval)
U  is measured in traffic units (cars, pedestrians, etc.) per time
B  Traffic volume
R  the overall number of vehicles passing a section of
A infrastructure over unit time at any selected period
 is defined as the product of the average traffic flow rate x time
T
 expressed also in traffic units per period (e.g. vehicles per hour)
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S  Capacity
L  the maximum hourly rate (traffic flow) at which persons or
A vehicles can traverse a point or section of infrastructure
V during a given time period under prevailing traffic conditions
A  expressed usually in vehicles per hour or vehicles per day
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E Traffic volume
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 Daily traffic volumes
S  Average daily traffic (ADT) volume
T  measured in different hours of a day, weekdays and seasons
U constitutes basis for statistical determination of
B  Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) volume
R AADT = V × DF × WF × MF
A where:
T V = Vehicle count at the day
7.8%
I DF = Daily Factor
7.5%
WF = Weekly Factor 7.0%
S MF = Monthly/Seasonal Factor
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A  Daily factor (Wed 12-15h)
V DF = 1/(7,0+7,8+7,5)%
A DF = 1/22,3% = 4,48
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C Traffic volume variation
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(weekly, seasonal)
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 Weekly variability of  Seasonal variability
S average daily volumes of monthly ADT
T  Weekly factor (Thursday)  Monthly factor (September)
U WF = 1/13,7%/7 = 1,043 MF = 1/105% = 0,952
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T 13.7%
105%
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E Traffic volume
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 Subhourly (short-term)
S traffic volumes
T e.g. 15min or 5min counts
U  used/measured
for determination
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of peak periods
(4 consecutive 15min intervals
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with the highest total volume)
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E Traffic counts
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 Counting vehicles/persons to estimate
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volumes, flow rates, demand and capacity
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 Volume studies
B  Locations:
R  profile (mid-block)
A  at intersections
T  Interval:
I  5 to 15 minute blocks (traffic lights cycle length)
S evaluated separately
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A  Time: (depends on purpose)
V  peak or off-peak
 daily volumes: 12h, 16h, 24hour, 7days...
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E Traffic counts
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 Methods:
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T  Paper-pencil (turning moves, occupancy, vehicle class)
U  Mechanical hand-counters (breaks needed)
B  Pneumatic tubes (laid on pavements)
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 Induction loops (built-in pavements)
T  Electronic (radar, satellite, infra-red and other)
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S  Careful preparation (field shields) and
L organisation are essential for success
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E Traffic counts : evaluation (1)
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E Traffic counts: evaluation (2)
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 Stripe diagram of traffic load at network
S width is dependent on single/bidirectional volume
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T  At intersections for each direction separately
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E Traffic counts: basic results
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 Regular (5 years) traffic survey on the main road
S network conducted by Slovak Road Administration
T  (USEK) Section number – unique 5-digit code
U  (CESTA) Road number – 1-6 digits related to funct. class
 (SPRAVCA) Owner / authority responsible for maintenance
B  (OKRES) Location (district)
R  (T, O, M, S) Number of vehicles of basic classes
(T – trucks, O – pass. cars, M – motorcycles, S – sum)
A - refined in comprehensive results
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E Traffic counts: graphic results
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C Traffic volume variation
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(hourly)
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 Peak (maximum) hourly traffic volume (PHV)
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T PHV = cmax × AADT
U  “commuting” type – distribution more distinct peaks
cmax = 10-14% of daily volumes – usually for rural roads
 “business” type – more balanced distribution (on work days)
B cmax = 6-10% of daily volumes – usually for urban roads / motorway
R  „recreational“ type – very variable, special survey required
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E Design traffic volume
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Design hourly traffic volume (DHV)
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is defined as the i-th (50th, 100th) highest
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hourly traffic volume in the year
(i.e. is exceeded for maximum 49 or 99 hours in the year)
B DHV = AADT K  D
R K – is the proportion
A of AADT during the K
T 50th (100th) rank hour
I D – is directional split K
S (busier direction)
K
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E Design traffic volume
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 K50 – Proportion of AADT during the 50th rank hour
S (i.e. is exceeded for maximum 49 or 99 hours in the year)
T  Depends on functional class of the road and
U traffic characteristic (business / mixed / recreational)
- based on coefficients ,  from the SRA survey
B funct. class traffic characteristic coefficient K50
R D, R (motorways and freeways) < 0,09
A
I (Ist class roads) cca 0,095
T
II-III Business ( /  < 0,5) cca 0,10
I
II-III Mixed ( 1,0 >  / > 0,5) cca 0,12
S
II-III Recreational ( /  > 1,0) cca 0,15
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M (urban roads) 0,09
A
V  D – is directional split (last coloumn of the SRA survey list)
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E Traffic composition
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 Heterogeneity > vehicle types:
S  3 main categories: trucks (T), cars (O), motorcycles (M)
T and many subcategories: T1-3, ST, TT, B, BA, O1, O2, C...
U
 Pass. car unit (PCU) or
B Pass. car equivalence (PCE)
R  coefficients are used for each vehicle type to reflect
A their size, weight, manoeuverability, etc.:
T car = 1,0 PCU
I van = 1,5 PCU
S truck = 2,0 (single truck) – 5,0 (with semi-trailer and trailer)
L bus = 2,5 (normal) – 3,5 (articulated) PCU
A motorcycle = 0,5 (0,3) PCU
V bicycle = 0,3 (0,1) PCU
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E Traffic volume development
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 Development of traffic volumes in Bratislava
S between years 1990-2000 in different locations
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 Traffic volume grows in time in majority of countries,
S cities, and road sections what causes a lot of problems...
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U  It grows faster than infrastructure is being built;
in fact, it has been proven that more infrastructure attracts
B even more traffic!!!
R  It grows differently in different circumstances
A
 Growth coefficients are estimated for different:
T
I  Design periods: e.g. 1,88 in next 20 yrs, and 2,13 for next 30yrs
S  Regions: 2,13 in BA, 2,01 in TT, 2,17 in ZA, 2,03 in PO, 2,20 in KE
L generally, traffic in economically faster developing regions grows faster
A  Func. class: D-2,13, I-1,94x, II-1,42x, III-1,32x between 2005-2035
V  Vehicle types: growth of O=2,13 > T=1,84
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E Traffic volume development (2)
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 Forecast of traffic volumes
S  usually estimated separately for each vehicle class (M, O, T)
T from the current survey volumes, multiplied by corresponding
U growth coefficient δ
(dependent to region, functional class, vehicle type and year of estimation)
 Suggested growth coefficients δ by SRA (example: region TRNAVA)
B
Functional
R class of road
Vehicle type 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
A light vehicles (O, M) 1,00 1,23 1,48 1,70 1,88 2,02 2,13 2,18
motorways
T heavy vehicles (T) 1,00 1,16 1,31 1,46 1,60 1,73 1,84 1,94
I I. class light vehicles (O, M) 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,58 1,73 1,85 1,94 2,00
#1-99
S heavy vehicles (T) 1,00 1,12 1,25 1,37 1,48 1,58 1,67 1,74
L II. class light vehicles (O, M) 1,00 1,08 1,17 1,25 1,32 1,38 1,42 1,44
#100-999 heavy vehicles (T) 1,00 1,08 1,16 1,23 1,29 1,34 1,39 1,42
A
III. class light vehicles (O, M) 1,00 1,07 1,14 1,20 1,25 1,30 1,34 1,40
V #1000+ heavy vehicles (T) 1,00 1,06 1,11 1,16 1,21 1,26 1,30 1,33
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E Transport infrastructure capacity
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 Capacity of transport infrastructure
S  must be assesed for the traffic volume in outlook by
T
U
the end of life-cycle of the critical element
 For rural roads, the capacity is affected by:
B  Type of road (single / dual carriageway)
R  Access (unlimited / limited for very slow vehicles <50kph)
A  Road category (width, number of lanes)
T  Design speed and (minimum) Desired speed
I  Overtaking possibilities/bans (curvature, sight conditions)
S  Ascention Degree (average speed of slow vehicles)
L  Proportion of slow (heavy) vehicles in the traffic flow
A  For urban roads there are similar considerations
V anyway, critical is the capacity of intersections
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E Transport infrastructure capacity
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 Road capacity assessment is conducted differently
S for respective types of the roads based on comparison:
T  of the prospective traffic flow volume (ith / 50th highest)
U in the outlook at the end of the design period
 and the design/permissible traffic flow volume
B for the given road category by considering the required LOS
R ensuring the permissible speed of traffic
A  Level of Service required for different road categories:
T
 Motorways and speedways LOS C
I
 State roads (Ist class roads) LOS C
S
L  Regional roads (IInd class roads) LOS D
A  District roads (IIIrd class roads) LOS E
V  LOS A or B would lead to overdesign,
A  LOS E results in design at the capacity edge
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C Single-carriageway roads:
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Capacity determinants
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 Permissible traffic flows for single-carriageway roads
S are assumed as total (sum) flows in both directions
T
U  Cross-section
 table values of permissible traffic flows for categories
B other then C11,5 are reduced by width coefficients:
R C11,5 C9,5 C7,5 C6,5
A
1,00 0,85 0,60 0,50
T
I  Proportion of slow vehicles
S  Slow vehicles (e.g. agricultural or construction machinery)
L reduce overall speed of traffic flow (incl. passenger cars)
A
 Reduction of permissible traffic flows is suggested in
V
A
tables in ranges of 5% (interpolation possible)
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 Longitudinal alignment – for ascending sections
S >+2%, speed of (slow) vehicles decreases in
T
U
dependence on length of section (see next slide)
 Levelled (<+2%) and descending partial sections, or those
B with only little difference can be coupled together by analysis
R  Ascend classes Ascend Average speed of
class slow vehicles [km/h]
A  Are defined based on average
T I > 70
speed of slow vehicles over a
I partial section II 55-70
S (arithmetical average of speeds III 40-55
L at the beginning and the end IV 30-40
A of the respective partial section) V 20-30
V VI <20
A
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slope to velocity (slow vehicles) relation
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S
70
T
U
53
B
R
A
T
Example: initial speed of 75km/h
I (at the end of previous section)
S is reduced by 350m long partial
section to 53km/h
L Average speed on partial section is
Length =350m
A thus (70+53)/2=61,5km/h
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A Length of partial section [m]
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slope to velocity (slow vehicles) relation
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T
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B
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A
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A Length of partial section [m]
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 Horizontal alignment affects overall speed of traffic
S flow on single-carriageway roads as well, depicted by:
T  Curvature of a road (section) K is defined as a sum
U of absolute values of vertex angles || on the section i,
relative to the length of the partial sections Li
K = Σ || / Li
B
[gon/km]
R
A  Overtaking possibilities may be further affected by bans;
T this is assumed through Additional curvature ΔK
I Proportion of sections with bans 0 – 30 % 30 – 100 %
S kp = Lz / Li
L Additional curvature ΔK 5.kp 150 + (kp – 30) / 0,7
A where:  is vertex angle (deviation from “straight”)
V Li is total length of the partial section
Lz is length of sections with overtaking bans
A
F ascent Total PTF [veh/h] in relation to % of slow vehicles
C
Sevice volume class curvature
E LOS C
(both directions)
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Single-
S carriageway
T roads
U Category C11,5
Note: for other
B
road classes
R
values must be
A recalculated with
T
I width coefficient
S
L
A
V
A
F
C
Sevice volume ascent Total
class curvature
PTF [veh/h] in relation to % of slow vehicles
E LOS D
(both directions)
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Single-
S carriageway
T roads
U Category C11,5
Note: for other
B
road classes
R
values must be
A recalculated with
T
I width coefficient
S
L
A
V
A
F ascent Total Capacity [veh/h] in relation to % of slow vehicles
C
Capacity / class curvature
E Service
volume
–
LOS E
S (both directions)
T Single-
U carriageway
roads
B
R Category C11,5
A Note: for other
T road classes
I values must be
S recalculated with
L width coefficient
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V
A
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C Slovak University of Technology
E Faculty of Civil Engineering
– Dpt. of Transportation Engineering
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A Exercises (Examples)
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E Technical report structure (1)
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 Project identification
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T Project:
U Design study of the road II/502 Modra – Kráľová
{input your road number and figure out two villages on the road}
B Location:
R Bratislava region {see your “OKRES” in the SRA table}
A Investor:
T Slovak University of Technology Bratislava,
I Faculty of Civil Engineering, Dept. of Transportation Engineering
S
L Designer:
A Jozko Mrkvicka, IV. CE / 1 {your data}
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A
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 A) Road classification:
S
T  Road number: 502 {input your number, SRA table, 2nd col.}
U  Functional class: II (regional road) {based on road number…
{ I.class (state road) if your road number is between 1 – 99 }
B { II.class (regional road) if your road number is between 100 – 999 }
R { III.class (district road) if your road number is 1000 or more}
A  Road category: C 7,5 / 50 {input from ordering sheet} /
T {C (stands for roads) * road category width / design speed
I – see lecture 3 for details}
S {normally to be determined based on capacity / LOS – see slide 42}
{estim. C 6,5 / 50 if FC is III and AADT is < 1.000 veh./24h}
L {estim. C 7,5* / 50 if FC is II / III and AADT is < 1.000 / < 2.500}
A {estim. C 7,5 / 60 if FC is II / III and AADT is < 5.000 / <10.000}
V {estim. C 9,5 / 70 if FC is I / II / III and AADT is < 10.000 / <15.000 / <20.000}
A {estim. C 11,5 / 80 if FC is I / II and AADT is > 10.000 / >15.000}
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C
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 B) Traffic characteristics
S  Road section: 87650 {input your number, SRA table, 1st coloumn}
T
U  1. Average annual daily traffic (AADT) (SRA survey 2010)
AADT heavy vehicles: T2010 = 500 [veh/24h] = 20,8%
B AADT passenger cars: O2010 = 1800 [veh/24h] = 75,0%
R
AADT motorcycles: M2010 = 100 [veh/24h] = 4,2%
A
T AADT sum: S2010 = 2400 [veh/24h] = 100%
I
 2. Passenger car units / equivalence
S
L AADT*2010 = 500 x 3,0 + 1800 x 1,0 + 100 x 0,5 =
A = 3350 [PCU/24h]
V  where assumed PCU conversion coefficients are:
A trucks: cT = 3,0 p. cars: cO = 1,0 m-cycles cM = 0,5
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C
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 3. Traffic development
S  design period: 2025-2045 (20 years for functional class II)
T {funct. class III: 15years; funct. class II: 20 years; funct. class I: 25 years}
U  suggested growth coefficients  (forecast of SRA, 2005):
{write down appropriate values from table slide 27, based on your road class}
B year light vehicles heavy vehicles
R start of operation: 2025 Oδ = 1,58 Tδ = 1,37
2020 2020
A end of operation: 2045 Oδ = 2,00 Tδ = 1,74
2040 2040
T
I
 4. Forecast of AADT
heavy vehicles: T 2025 = 685 [veh/24h] T 2045 = 870 [veh/24h]
S
passenger cars: O 2025 = 2844 [veh/24h] O 2045 = 3600 [veh/24h]
L motorcycles: M 2025 = 158 [veh/24h] M 2045 = 200 [veh/24h]
A AADT (real veh): S 2025 = 3687 [veh/24h] S 2045 = 4670 [veh/24h]
V
AADT* (PCU): S* 2025 = 4978 [PCU/24h] S* 2045 = 6310 [PCU/24h]
A
F
C
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 5. Traffic flow characterstics {values from SRA table}
S Traffic type characteristics: alfa α = 0,35
T beta β = 0,90
U gama γ = 1,20
Traffic type: α / β = 0,35 / 0,9 = 0,39 {see slide 22}
B –> business type of traffic variation
R 50th rank hour coefficient K50 = 0,10 {see slide 22}
A Directional split: 55:45 ---> D = 0,55
T
I  6. Design Hourly Traffic Volume (DHV)
S DHV = AADT × K50 [PCU/1h]
L DHV2010 = 2450 × 0,10 = 245 [PCU/1h]
A DHV2025 = 3687 × 0,10 = 369 [PCU/1h]
V DHV2045 = 4687 × 0,10 = 469 [PCU/1h]
A
F
C
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 7. Preliminary capacity assessment
S  Width coefficient:
T kw = 0,60 – for road category C7,5 {see slide 30}
U
 Proportion of heavy vehicles in total traffic:
B pT2040 = (T/S) x 100 = (870/6310) x 100 = 13,8%

R  Ascent class: 1 - 6
A {normally, speed of slow vehicles along the route should be determined}
T  Basic Curvature:
I K = || / L = 35,1 / 0,9 = 39 [gon/km]
S where:
L  curve angle || = 35,1 gon (31,59°)
A {measure the angle of red lines in your map}
V  length of section L = 900m = 0,9km
{but you are supposed to design approx. 1km long section!!!}
A
F
C
–
 Required Level of Service (LOS): D (for functional class II)
S  Capacity (C):
T {analyse values in the table slide 37 and find possible limit values}
U Cmin = C´min  kw = 992  0,60 = 595 veh/h
C´min = (LOS D for 13,8% slow veh., ascent class 6, curvature > 225)
B  Service Volumes (SV):
R {analyse values in the table slides 35-37 and find possible limit values}
A SVmin = SV´min  kw = 826  0,60 = 496 veh/h
T SV´min = (LOS D for 13,8% slow veh., ascent class 6, curvature > 225)
I  Evaluation DHV2045 < Cmin DHV2045 < SVmin
S 469 < 595 469 < 496
L The capacity of the road is / is not sufficient for forecasted
A design traffic flows over the design period;
V There are no limits for permissible values of ascent class
A and/or overtaking bans (aditional curvature)
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E End of Lecture 1
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T
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B Thank you for attention...

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T Next week: Cross-section
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Transport Planning - Lecture 2 - Traffic

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C Slovak University of Technology

Transportation Planning - Lecture 2 6

A  Running speed – net speed (in motion), excluding delays

Transportation Planning - Lecture 2 8

B pT2040 = (T/S) x 100 = (870/6310) x 100 = 13,8%

B Thank you for attention...

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