Suavización Exponencial

Porcentaje promedio absoluto de error

Desviación cuadrática media

Desviación media absoluta
MAD MAPE MSD
w 1.0417 0.51986474 1.15% 0.44420494

t Zt Pronostico |Error| %Error Error2

1 44.2 44.2
2 44.3 44.2
3 44.4 44.30417 0.09583 0.22% 0.00918339
4 43.4 44.4039961 1.00399611 2.31% 1.00800819
5 42.8 43.3581334 0.55813336 1.30% 0.31151285
6 44.3 42.7767258 1.52327416 3.44% 2.32036417
7 44.4 44.3635205 0.03647947 0.08% 0.00133075
8 44.8 44.4015212 0.39847881 0.89% 0.15878536
9 44.4 44.8166166 0.41661657 0.94% 0.17356936
10 43.1 44.3826271 1.28262709 2.98% 1.64513225
11 42.6 43.0465145 0.44651445 1.05% 0.19937515
12 42.4 42.5813803 0.18138035 0.43% 0.03289883
13 42.2 42.3924364 0.19243644 0.46% 0.03703178
14 41.8 42.1919754 0.3919754 0.94% 0.15364471
15 40.1 41.7836546 1.68365463 4.20% 2.8346929
16 42 40.0297916 1.9702084 4.69% 3.88172113
17 42.4 42.0821577 0.31784231 0.75% 0.10102373
18 43.1 42.413254 0.68674598 1.59% 0.47162004
19 42.4 43.1286373 0.72863731 1.72% 0.53091233
20 43.1 42.3696158 0.73038418 1.69% 0.53346104
21 43.2 43.130457 0.06954298 0.16% 0.00483623
22 42.8 43.2028999 0.40289994 0.94% 0.16232836
23 43 42.7831991 0.21680093 0.50% 0.04700264
24 42.8 43.0090406 0.2090406 0.49% 0.04369797
25 42.5 42.791283 0.29128301 0.69% 0.08484579
26 42.6 42.4878535 0.1121465 0.26% 0.01257684
27 42.3 42.6046765 0.30467651 0.72% 0.09282778
28 42.9 42.287295 0.61270501 1.43% 0.37540743
29 43.6 42.9255498 0.6744502 1.55% 0.45488307
30 44.7 43.6281246 1.07187543 2.40% 1.14891693
31 44.5 44.7446972 0.24469721 0.55% 0.05987672
32 45 44.4897961 0.51020387 1.13% 0.26030799
33 44.8 45.0212755 0.2212755 0.49% 0.04896285
34 44.9 44.7907728 0.10922719 0.24% 0.01193058
35 45.2 44.9045548 0.29544523 0.65% 0.08728788
36 45.2 45.2123201 0.01232007 0.03% 0.00015178
37 45 45.1994863 0.19948625 0.44% 0.03979477
38 45.5 44.9916814 0.50831858 1.12% 0.25838778
39 46.2 45.5211969 0.67880312 1.47% 0.46077367
40 46.8 46.2283061 0.57169391 1.22% 0.32683393
41 47.5 46.8238396 0.67616036 1.42% 0.45719284
42 48.3 47.5281959 0.77180411 1.60% 0.59568159
43 48.3 48.3321842 0.03218423 0.07% 0.00103582
44 49.1 48.2986579 0.80134208 1.63% 0.64214913
45 48.9 49.133416 0.23341596 0.48% 0.05448301
46 49.4 48.8902666 0.50973345 1.03% 0.25982819
47 50 49.4212559 0.57874412 1.16% 0.33494475
48 50 50.0241336 0.02413363 0.05% 0.00058243
49 49.6 49.9989936 0.39899363 0.80% 0.15919591
50 49.9 49.583362 0.31663803 0.63% 0.10025964
51 49.6 49.9132038 0.31320381 0.63% 0.09809662
52 50.7 49.5869394 1.1130606 2.20% 1.2389039
53 50.7 50.7464146 0.04641463 0.09% 0.00215432
54 50.9 50.6980645 0.20193549 0.40% 0.04077794
55 50.5 50.9084207 0.40842071 0.81% 0.16680748
56 51.2 50.4829689 0.71703114 1.40% 0.51413366
57 50.7 51.2299002 0.5299002 1.05% 0.28079422
58 50.3 50.6779032 0.37790316 0.75% 0.1428108
59 49.2 50.2842414 1.08424144 2.20% 1.1755795
60 48.1 49.1547871 1.05478713 2.19% 1.11257589
61 48.0560154
 52

Actual

Pronostico
50

48

Z
46

44

42

40
2345678911111
01234
 Gráfica de suavización para Metales
Método exponencial simple
52 Variable
Actual
Ajustes
50 Pronósticos
95.0% PI

48 Constante de suavización
Alfa 1.04170
Metales

Medidas de exactitud
46
MAPE 1.11648
MAD 0.50427
MSD 0.42956
44

42

40

1 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63
Índice
52

Actual

Pronostico
50

48

46

44

42

40
234567891111111111222222222233333333334444444444555555555566
0123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901

t
Variable
Actual
Ajustes
Pronósticos
95.0% PI

ante de suavización
lfa 1.04170

idas de exactitud
APE 1.11648
AD 0.50427
SD 0.42956
 Plantilla Pronósticos de demanda-Suavización Exponencial
Suavizacion exponencial doble
δ 0.02997
Digita en las celdas color blanco Demanda pronosticada con método de suavización exponencial doble
α 1.0384
53
Pronóstico Tendencia Pronóstico con
Periodo Demanda 51
suavizado suavizada tendencia
1 44.2 0.00 49
2 44.3 45.90 1.38 47.27 47
3 44.4 44.19 1.28 45.47 45

Unidades
4 43.4 44.36 1.25 45.61 Demanda
43
5 42.8 43.32 1.18 44.50 Pronóstico con tendencia
6 44.3 42.73 1.13 43.86 41
7 44.4 44.32 1.14 45.46 39
8 44.8 44.36 1.11 45.47
37
9 44.4 44.77 1.09 45.86
35
10 43.1 44.34 1.04 45.39 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57
11 42.6 43.01 0.97 43.98
12 42.4 42.55 0.93 43.48 Periodos
13 42.2 42.36 0.89 43.25
 Plantilla Pronóstico de demanda-Errores de medición

Número de periodos 12

Desviación absoluta media Error cuadrático medio Error porcentual absoluto

Periodo Demanda Pronóstico Error de pronóstico
(MAD) (MSE) medio (MAPE)
1 44.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%
2 44.3 47 -2.97 2.97 8.84 6.71%
3 44.4 45 -1.07 1.07 1.14 2.41%
4 43.4 46 -2.21 2.21 4.88 5.09%
5 42.8 44 -1.70 1.70 2.88 3.96%
6 44.3 44 0.44 0.44 0.19 0.99%
7 44.4 45 -1.06 1.06 1.12 2.38%
8 44.8 45 -0.67 0.67 0.45 1.49%
9 44.4 46 -1.46 1.46 2.14 3.29%
10 43.1 45 -2.29 2.29 5.23 5.30%
11 42.6 44 -1.38 1.38 1.91 3.25%
12 42.4 43 -1.08 1.08 1.16 2.54%
13 42.2 43 -1.05 1.05 1.11 2.50%
14 41.8 43 -1.22 1.22 1.49 2.92%
15 40.1 43 -2.48 2.48 6.14 6.18%
16 42 41 1.25 1.25 1.56 2.97%
17 42.4 43 -0.43 0.43 0.19 1.02%
18 43.1 43 -0.06 0.06 0.00 0.13%
19 42.4 44 -1.47 1.47 2.16 3.46%
20 43.1 43 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.07%
21 43.2 44 -0.63 0.63 0.39 1.45%
22 42.8 44 -1.08 1.08 1.17 2.53%
23 43 43 -0.43 0.43 0.19 1.00%
24 42.8 44 -0.84 0.84 0.71 1.97%
25 42.5 43 -0.90 0.90 0.81 2.12%
26 42.6 43 -0.47 0.47 0.22 1.10%
27 42.3 43 -0.87 0.87 0.76 2.06%
28 42.9 43 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.16%
29 43.6 43 0.13 0.13 0.02 0.30%
30 44.7 44 0.53 0.53 0.28 1.18%
31 44.5 45 -0.81 0.81 0.65 1.81%
32 45 45 -0.03 0.03 0.00 0.07%
33 44.8 46 -0.76 0.76 0.58 1.69%
34 44.9 45 -0.41 0.41 0.17 0.91%
35 45.2 45 -0.21 0.21 0.04 0.46%
36 45.2 46 -0.51 0.51 0.26 1.13%
37 45 46 -0.68 0.68 0.46 1.51%
38 45.5 45 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.10%
39 46.2 46 0.22 0.22 0.05 0.47%
40 46.8 47 0.10 0.10 0.01 0.22%
41 47.5 47 0.20 0.20 0.04 0.43%
42 48.3 48 0.29 0.29 0.09 0.61%
43 48.3 49 -0.52 0.52 0.27 1.07%
44 49.1 49 0.33 0.33 0.11 0.67%
45 48.9 50 -0.71 0.71 0.51 1.46%
46 49.4 49 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.10%
47 50 50 0.12 0.12 0.01 0.24%
48 50 50 -0.49 0.49 0.24 0.98%
49 49.6 50 -0.85 0.85 0.72 1.71%
50 49.9 50 -0.11 0.11 0.01 0.22%
51 49.6 50 -0.73 0.73 0.54 1.48%
52 50.7 50 0.71 0.71 0.51 1.40%
53 50.7 51 -0.47 0.47 0.22 0.92%
54 50.9 51 -0.21 0.21 0.04 0.40%
55 50.5 51 -0.81 0.81 0.66 1.60%
56 51.2 51 0.34 0.34 0.11 0.66%
57 50.7 52 -0.92 0.92 0.84 1.81%
58 50.3 51 -0.74 0.74 0.55 1.47%
59 49.2 51 -1.42 1.42 2.02 2.89%
60 48.1 49 -1.35 1.35 1.83 2.81%
Suma de errores -35.69 45.40 58.67 101.86%
 CFE -35.69
MAD 3.78
MSE 4.89
MAPE 8.49%
Señal de rast -9.43

Gráfica de suavización para Metales

Método exponencial doble
54 Variable
Actual
Ajustes
52
Pronósticos
95.0% PI
50
Constantes de suavización
Alfa (nivel) 1.03840
48 Gamma (tendencia) 0.02997
Metales

Medidas de exactitud
46 MAPE 1.19684
MAD 0.54058
44 MSD 0.46794

42

40

1 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63
Índice