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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

‫תיטסיטטס הקסה‬

Inferential Statistics (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

15:17 2016 14

5 4

1
2
3
- 4
/ 5

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29 1 
7% 2% 2 
2%
3 


. .

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200

PTSD 
N=200 200 

PTSD

65

18

65

N=18 18

N N

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

70% 30% 30%

N N X N
.X , ,

. N=18

.
18

24 22 20 18

N=2
24 18

N=2

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

0.0625 1/16

0.1875 3/16
N=2

18 21

0.25 4/16 0
0.375 6/16 2
N=2

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

N
3

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/sampledist.html

X=X1, X2, Xn

N
Var
N

X=X1, X2 X

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954


29 
10,000

N
0

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/sampledist.html

1.2 3.4
N=5

N=30

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

X N
X ,
X Y

Y
Y X

N
X

X , X

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

N
http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/sampledist.html

1.2 3.4

3 30

N
Z ,

N
N

X 

X 
-N

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14:00 2016 17

Likelihood Maximum

11,500 4

11,500

8,000-16,000 4 80%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

Estimator

Estimate

22

." "

". " -

- -

. - 1

, . - ( )
.

. -

3 27 30

! )

estimator unbiased

. ,

0= - ( )= 0

. = . = - (

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/sampledist.html 36

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

Md

51

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/sampledist.html

- 57 Maximum Likelihood

Maximum Likelihood

ML

n p

0.7 10

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

0.7 10

7 10

p n k

0-1 p

k p

Likelihood

Likelihood X p

Likelihood Estimator Maximum

p=0.7

p=0.9 p=0.5

10
7

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

Likelihood

10 8

Data|Parameters P

Likelihood

Likelihood 10 8

Parameters|Data L

Likelihood

ML
Likelihood

interval confidence

3.4

90% 3.8 3

0.9

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7 12
14 10 20

10-14

14 10 80%

80% 14 10

10-14 80%

. 

50% 90% 80%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

.7
, 20

90%

.7
20

90%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

. ,

98%

90%

134

100% 

100% 

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3
14:00 2016 07

1
2

158 200
96%

1-p=q p

P k

- -
.

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

P P
P P

.P P
. . .

6 p N
0.5 p

) k

K N
N K

, .
.K

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/sampledist.html

158 200
96%

96%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

96%

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/propci.html

: ( ) 2

.7
20

90%

double dipping

- , -

1 N 1

: - ,

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

( s)

N-1 :

EXCEL

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

t - ,

t x
t

t t X
N-1

(df- Degrees of freedom)

. " t

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

N-1 t t

z t

z t
t z t 95%
z

t
t

z
t z t t

z t -

100 68 240 58 112 23

90%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

. " t

(df=5), 90%

www.mlive.com/kalamabrew/index.ssf/2009/03/because_of_beer_1900s_guinness.html http

Guinness
t
Student's t

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4
18:16 2016 14

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

, . -

-11 - **

( ) ( )

( ).

30 Depression Inventory, range 0-63, severe depression Beck BDI


BDI 48 - ( BDI 42
(

. 12 10 /

95

( )

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

14 C
C

16 8 0 4 3 9 3 1

12 23 13 19 7 28

95%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

. ,

.42 6

95%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

0 40

. :

. t

100 68 240 58 112 23

90%

5
State-
range 20-80 1983 al Spielberger et Trait-Anxiety-Inventory

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

95%

95%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

95%

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5
14:00 2016 05

( )
2

80 620

25
74 638

720 638

. X
25
X
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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

638

5%

638

620 5%

620 638 13%

710
710

.
720 620 5%
620

710

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

. .

. . . ,

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

- (

5%

5%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

5%

:
:
0 1.65

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

:
:

,
(
.
.

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

: 2

93 13

20%
300 1200
15%

p
25% .

20% 1200

: -

1200

93 13
10 1%

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

10 1%
10
10.2 9.7 9.4 10.3 10.1
9.8 8.9 10.4 10.3 8.9

t
t

: -

X t
t
2

: -

1%

10

0.1

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

1.8

Z z t z
t t

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

6
10:18 2016 23

.
.
100

H1

120

5%
H1

0.05

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

2
t

(N-1) N 1+ N 2 - 2 t
t

. (
4

. . ,

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

noise H0
noise + signal H1

4
FA
CR 1-
MISS
HIT 1-

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

,
. -

5%

. 5% 5%

,
( , ( -

*
N

H0

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

p-value

. .

p-value

5% Z

.
Z=1.84

3% 5%

p-value
P
P

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

2 H0

Z=0.8

p-value

. ,

Ronald Fisher
. , p-value - . ,
. p-value
tollens modus
(D ,
D

Popper Karl

. p-value
Fisher
Pearson Neyman

p-value

Z=1.84

p-value

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

p-value

05 p-value Z=1.84
,

statistical power
, ,

),

( :
N
<- -<

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

.
.
)
p-value

p p=.08 STATISTICA

30
6 10

400 20-25

10.5 20-25

1-

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

50%

50% 2

1
.

80-90%

15 540
20
99

99%

:560 20

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

size effect

-N

p=.001
p=.038

. <-
p-value

p-value

N size Effect

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

N size Effect

dC
C

C
Z

1 1

d=.8 d=.5 d=.2

d=.5

1 d

80%
N

post-hoc

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

post-hoc 2

G*Power 3

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

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17:51 2016 31

5% p value 0.05
p value

p value 2
p value Z- Z p value
Cohen's D

S t D

robust t
t

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

2
t
t

X Y

Normal probability plot (QQ plot


Z

8
11

Z score X

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

S 3

Shapiro-Wilk Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S)

. =
. =

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

-
test Welch t

t SPSS

1 1
F

F 1

2 3

10 33

F
. F

. 1
. - " F

38 30

20 2² 60 1²

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

0.05

29,37 F

1.98

. (rho) r
r

0.1
. -
. -

Y X

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

0.4 19

19 2.3

15
105

5% 0.05
105

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

8
09:07 2016 12

( )

(one-way)

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

N=20 6 120
10
6 5 4 3 2 1

t
6 2 6*5:2 15 J t

. t n

n
(1- ) ^n

1 (1- ) N

family-wise alpha

:
-

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3
5
90
X

1 F

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

SST- Sum of MST- Mean


Square Total Squares Total

Within
Between

40
SST SST
n N
SST
j

a2 + b2

0
0 n

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

0
0 n

SSW
SSB N-J N-2 2 N-1
J N-1 t n
J-1 N

MSW MSB
t
SSW

F MSW SSW

:
-

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5% 3.89 2,12 F F
3.89 F 3.89 F

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

P value

j
i 1 2 3
1 92 110 112
2 94 102 130
3 97 130 103
4 95 120 120
5 95 118 130
94.6 116 119

1 F 2

1
F=0 0 F=0

3
Within

F t 4
W t F t p value

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. , ( )

Cohen's d t

- -

0-1

. .

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08:28 2016 16

F
F t

t 2 t
2 t

5 2 t 5

t F

MScomp
2 Comp

MSW 2

J-1 SSB 2 2 1

2 1 SScomp

2 1
1

0 2 1

1 2 1 1

2
0

17 17 0 2

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

Cj

SScomp -> MScomp -> F

Sscomp

MSW

2 1 2 1

1 2 1 1 2 1

2 1

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

3 3

family wise

3
1 1 0
1 1 2

1 C1+C2=0 0
0 0 0

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

XXXX 3 Stroop

post hoc

10 5

2 45 1 J-1

SScomp

SSB Sscomp

Cohen d

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

x2 2 t

10% 20% 20%


40% 10%

Ho

H1

20 5 100
25 20 30

1 2

20 100
H0

Oj
100 N
1 H0 Pj

N*Pj=E 100*0.2=20 H0 Expect

X2 2

Ej Oj
Ej

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

J-1

Ej

H0

x2 5 Expected
x2

X2

J-1=4 df a, 0.05

x2

Attention Deficit ADHD


Disorder Hyperactivity
H Hyperactive Impulsive

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lOMoARcPSD|4329954

H Hyperactive Impulsive
(C)Combined I Inattentive

ADHD Ho
ADHD H1

Exp Obs
k j 2

(J-1) (K-1

ADHD 200

2
Observed

ADHD Ho

ADHD H1

5 Expected

4 3-1 3-1 df a, 0.05

Expected

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ADHD

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0H H1 1
2
3
4
5
6
7

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