Professional Documents
Culture Documents
September 4, 2011
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d.
The intersection is the event that all of the mortgages are fixed: outcome
1.
2
f. The union is the event that either:
i. exactly three mortgages are fixed, or:
ii. all four of them are the same
which leaves us with outcomes 1,2,3,5,9,16.
The intersection is the event that exactly three mortgages are fixed AND
that all four mortgages are the same, which is impossible; if all four
mortgages are the same, then we have either FFFF or VVVV, neither of
which have exactly three fixed mortgages. Hence, the intersection is ∅.
Chapter 2: Probability
Exercise 2.4 (Devore 2.8).
8.
a. A1 ! A2 ! A3
b. A1 " A2 " A3
c. A 1 " A 2# " A 3#
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Chapter 2: Probability
e. A1 # (A2 ! A3)
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a. P (C ∪ S) = P (C) + P (S) − P (C ∩ S), so
P (C ∩ S) = P (C) + P (S) − P (C ∪ S) = .55 + .45 − .7 = .3
b. P ((C ∪ S)0 ) = 1 − P (C ∪ S) = 1 − .7 = .3
Exercise 2.8 (Devore 2.15).
a. If E is the event that at most one customer buys an electric dryer, then
E’ is the even that at least two customers buy electric dryers. By
complementation, P (E 0 ) = 1 − P (E) = 1 − .428 = .572 .
b. Let A be the event that all five customers buy gas dryers and let B be
the event that all five customers buy electric dryers. Then, A ∪ B is the
event that all five customers purchase the same kind of dryer. Hence,
(A ∪ B)0 is the event that all five customers do not purchase the same
kind of dryer: in other words, the event that at least one of each kind of
dryer is purchased. We want to find P ((A ∪ B)0 ). Since A and B are
disjoint events,
P ((A ∪ B)0 ) = 1 − P (A ∪ B) = 1 − P (A) − P (B) = 1 − .116 − .005 = .879 .
Exercise 2.9 (Devore 2.19).
a. Let S1, S2 and S3 represent the day, swing, and night shifts, respectively.
Let C1 and C2 represent unsafe conditions and unrelated to conditions,
respectively. Then, the simple events are
{S1, C1}, {S2, C1}, {S3, C1}, {S1, C2}, {S2, C2}, {S3, C2}.
b. Using the table, we calculate P ({{S1, C1}, {S2, C1}, {S3, C1}}) =
P ({S1, C1}) + P ({S2, C1}) + P ({S3, C1}) = .1 + .08 + .05 = .23
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c. In the calculation, we consider all simple events without the day shift
symbol, S1.
P ({{S2, C1}, {S3, C1}, {S2, C2}, {S3, C2}}) = P ({S2, C1}) +
P ({S3, C1}) + P ({S2, C2}) + P ({S3, C2}) = .08 + .05 + .20 + .22 = .55
Exercise 2.11 (Devore 2.26).
P (A∩B) .25
a. P (B | A) = P (B) = .50 = .5
P (A∩B 0 )
b. P (B 0 | A) = P (A) = .25
.5 = .5
P (A∩B) .25
c. P (A | B) = P (B) = .4 = .6125
P (A0 ∩B)
d. P (A0 | B) = P (B) = .15
.4 = .3875
P (A∩(A∩B)) P (A) .5
e. P (A | A ∪ B) = P (A∪B) = P (A∪B) = .65 = .7692
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Now, we have to do some intermediate calculations:
By calculating:
.04 + 0 + .01
P ((exactly one) | (at least one)) = = .3571
.04 + .05 + .01 + .02 + .01 + .01
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Exercise 2.14 (Devore 2.52).
Let F1 be the event that the first pump fails and F2 be the event that the
second one fails. Since the pumps are identical, P (F1 ) = P (F2 ) (assume they
are under equal stresses too). Then:
a.
b. P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = .75 · .9 · .8 = .5400
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P (T ) = 1, 000/300, 000, 000 = .0000033. Apply Bayes’ Theorem:
P (T )P (+ | T ) P (T )P (+ | T )
P (T | +) = 0 0
=
P (T )P (+ | T ) + P (T )P (+ | T ) P (T )P (+ | T ) + (1 − P (T ))(1 − P (− | T 0 ))
.0000033 · .99
= = .003289 .
.00003 · .99 + (1 − .00033)(1 − .999)