DDBM @ WES

Direct & Database Marketing

DAY 3
November 24, 2019
Mumbai, India

Dr. Denish Shah

Barbara & Elmer Sunday Professor of Marketing
Director, Social Media Intelligence Lab
Co-Director, (CMO) Marketing RoundTable
Robinson College of Business
Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA

MOBILE MARKETING

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Mobile Marketing:
Some Interesting Facts & Figures

 The number of mobile-connected devices exceed the world's population.

 Mobile Data Traffic witnesses a triple digit growth.
 Mobile network connection speeds increase substantially with each
generation (currently 4G/LTE). 5G expected around 2020.

Source: The Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update.

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70% of consumers find mobile ads 
‘interruptive’ and 67% find them 
more annoying than TV ads
‐ Forrester Research, 2012.

Best Practice in Mobile Ads:

Think about ‘Customer Moments’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GvA3aM17QI

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Why do micro-moments matter for

smart phone users?

82%
of smartphone users turn to their
phone to influence a purchase
decision while in a store
90%
of smartphone users have used
their phone to make progress
toward a long term goal or
multi-step process

62%
of smartphone users are more
likely to take action right away
toward solving an unexpected
problem or new task because
they have a smartphone
91%
of smartphone users turn to
their phone for ideas while
doing a given task.

Source: Google Research Studies, 2014 - 2015

How to identify Micro-Moments?

Rely on cues such as:

 Location of user
 Time of the day
 Device being used
 Search query
 Type of content browsed
 Other contextual cues

Example:

90,000 passengers are stranded by flight cancellations each

day. Red Roof Inn tapped into this data.

Implemented targeted search-ads:

“Stranded at the airport? Come stay with us” at mobile users
searching for hotels near airports.

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UNDERSTANDING
MICRO-MOMENTS

Source: Google

Developing a strategy to leverage

micro-moments through mobile

Micro‐Moments What does it mean?
I‐Want‐to‐Know Moments Users are exploring or researching 
but not in purchase mode

How to leverage it?
Offer useful information or inspiration, not the hard sell.

Example: Realtor.com offers homebuyers step‐by‐step videos of the 
homebuying process.

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Developing a strategy to leverage

micro-moments through mobile

Micro‐Moments What does it mean?
I‐Want‐to‐Go Moments People are actively looking for 
a local business or a product to 
buy at a local store

How to leverage it?
Get your business/product/service in the consideration set of the user.

Example: Argos (UK retailer) connected with customers searching for relevant 
products on their mobile phone with the nearest store location and in‐store 
inventory status.
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Developing a strategy to leverage

micro-moments through mobile

Micro‐Moments What does it mean?
I‐Want‐to‐Do Moments When people want help with 
getting things done. These may 
come before or after a purchase

How to leverage it?
Offer relevant instructional content
Example: Home Depot has a huge collection of ‘How to’ videos 
on YouTube.
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Developing a strategy to leverage

micro-moments through mobile

Micro‐Moments What does it mean?
I‐Want‐to‐Buy Moments When people are ready to buy 
and may need help deciding what 
or how to buy

How to leverage it?
Empower customers to make a purchase (online or offline) in the 
easier and faster way possible.
Example: Insert a Click‐to‐call a sales agent in your mobile ad or 
offer a free‐shipping of an item not available in‐store.
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In-Mall Marketing

Mobile/ WiFi
Twelve Oaks Mall, MI
Enabled Real
Cherry Creek Shopping Center, CO
Time Marketing
Fair Oaks Mall, VA
for retailers to
International Plaza, FL
target the right
Stamford Town Center, CT customer at the
Sunvalley Shopping Center, CA right location
in real time

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Proportion of Online Time Spent on Smart Phones

Consumers like to spend more time on mobile apps. Facebook dominates.

Important Takeaway:
Create useful Mobile Apps

 Retailers are launching in-

store maps to help shoppers
locate the correct aisle for
different items

 Bank of America allows its

customers to scan a check
with their mobile phone and
virtually deposit it from
anywhere.

 CVS Express mobile app aims https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3lIXT6S5p4

to combat online retailers like
Amazon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94Gc4Cv4_Uw
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In India, several firms have launched

multiple mobile apps

5 Mobile Apps 4 Mobile Apps

targeted to different sets of users
targeted to consumers,
property managers,
operations team, and
hotel owners respectively

4 Mobile Apps
for property search,
residents’ group,
agents, and
Retina Virtual Reality

The growing
importance of
Internet & Social
Media for Direct
Marketing

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Consumer spending on digital

media content and technology in 2014

$1 Trillion
(Up 12%)

Top 3 reasons driving this growth:

Proliferation of smart phones

Increase in penetration of Broadband Internet
Growing middle class in Emerging Markets

Source: PQ Media, 2013

The influence of Google & the Internet

August 16, 2013 Google and related services

7:52pm ET were down for about 5 minutes.

THE GLOBAL
INTERNET TRAFFIC
DROPPED BY 40%!!

Source: Wall Street Journal

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Web Tracking 101

Online User

Web Site Web Analytics

(With Java Script Code Service
inserted on each page
of the web site) Provider

3 Types of Information are basically captured:

1. Browsing behavior on the website

2. Information from the user’s browser and device

 Example: Type of browser, Language, Location (IP number),
Device type, and Operating System.
3. Source of visit
 How did the user arrive on a web page?
• Example: Direct entry (i.e., by typing the URL), or from a search engine, social
media page, another website, display ad, etc.

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Wall Street Journal Article

“On the Web’s Cutting Edge”

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Checking the Database

"We never don't know anything about
someone," says John Nardone - CEO

…Its technology works like this: A visitor lands on Capital One's credit-card page,
and [x+1] instantly scans the information passed between the person's computer
and the web page...also uses a new service … that can determine the ZIP code
where that computer is physically located…

Why should marketers care about Social Media?

Proportion of time spent by people online

Email 8%

Search 4%

Social Media 23%

Portals 5%

Online Games 10%

Videos/Movies 4%

Source: The Social Media Report by Nielsen, 2011 7:28 PM

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Important things to
keep in mind

Social Media Platforms ≠ Corporate Website

 Conventional Applications  ‘Not so’ Conventional

 Display Ads  Resolve customer issues
 Sales promotions/Contests,  Market Research
Event promotions
 Crowd sourcing
 Build a Community
 Facilitate a Charitable Cause
 Generate consumer buzz
 Sentiment Analyses
or engagement
 Trend Analyses
 Communicate/Share news
updates or announcements
 PR
 Register emails/Newsletter
subscription
 Product demos/Information
 Redirect to corporate
website
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Consumer’s Perspective:

Personal v/s
Professional Networks

Understanding the 
mindset difference.

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The Mindset Divide

Personal Networks Professional Networks

e.g. Facebook e.g. LinkedIn

• Nostalgia • Achievement
• Having fun • Aspiration
• Distraction • Ambition

Perception of Time Utilization

Personal Network: Professional Networks:

“Spend” Time “Invest” Time
Source: LinkedIn and TNS partnered on a global study which surveyed 6,000+ social media users across 12 countries to uncover how marketers can connect to these
different mindsets on personal and professional networks.

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Top 5 Motivations for a User to be on a

Personal Versus Professional Network

 Personal Network:
1. Socialize Personal v/s Professional
2. Stay in touch
3. Be entertained
4. Kill time
5. Share content
 Professional Network
1. Maintain professional identity
2. Make useful contacts
3. Search for opportunities
4. Stay in touch
5. Keep up-to-date for career

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Consumer’s Perspective:

Following Friends versus

Following……
Understanding the 
key differences between 
Facebook & Twitter.

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The Key Differences

Facebook Twitter

• Relationship Building • Following news/updates

• Friends and Family • Friends, Brands, Celebrities,
• Relatively Private News…
• Relatively Public

Facebook is analogous to a private room conversation Twitter is analogous to interacting in a large public square

In the 1990’s, the Internet gave a

level playing field
to businesses

Social Media gives a

level playing field to
_________
customers with respect to communication
_____________

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Conversations
Social mediaincan
Social Media
deliver can offer
new intelligence
unprecedented Real Time Insights

An earthquake of magnitude 5.8 hits Virginia,

AUGUST 23, 2011
USA at 1:51 pm

First Tweet is sent out from Virginia to residents in New York 1:51 pm

Shock waves felt in New York 40 seconds later

Time taken by the U.S. Geological Survey’s

2 to 20 minutes later
seismometers to generate an alert

Consumer chatter is gaining creditability

Investor sentiment as
Can reliably predict changes in the
determined from Social stock market by up to 4 days
Media
(Research by professors at Indiana
University & University of Manchester, UK)

Can reliably predict the outbreak of

Tweets complaining about
flu in a region ahead of the most
flu or flu-like symptoms sophisticated model used by the CDC

Can predict with almost certainty

Online blogs of individuals
whether a new movie release will be
and Facebook posts a hit or tank the box office

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Social Media
Case Studies

Important Lessons Learned

The Power of Social Media

Traditional way: The ‘new’ way:

“Major Advertisement Leverage the connections in
Blitz to generate the social media
awareness”
From 7 bloggers to 350 mln people
within 24h

>

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The Power Dove

of Social Media

Number of Views : 67+ Million

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpaOjMXyJGk

LESSON # 1:

Social media is a powerful tool to

generate consumer buzz

Buzz = Awareness/Engagement
(which may ultimately lead to sales)

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Can social media help generate buzz

for a relatively unknown brand?

B2B manufacturer of glass and ceramics

Number of Views : 26+ Million

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38

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However, it is important
to understand that:

Social Media shifts the

power of communication
from the company
to the consumer
(LESSON # 2)

United Airlines @ 2009

7:28 PM
Number of Views : 17+ Million
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YGc4zOqozo

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Domino’s Pizza

7:28 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaNuE3DsJHM

LESSON # 3:
Monitoring Social Media is
no longer an option!

Social Media
Command Centers

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Ellen DeGeneres’ record breaking tweet

(sent on March 2, 2014)

3+ Million re-tweets in less than 24 hours!

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Lesson # 4

Content on Digital/Social Media 
has to be:
Interesting AND Relevant
(Exciting, Humorous, Unique, Surprising….)  (Useful, Valuable, Contextual, Timely….) 

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Controversial Motrin Moms Commercial

7:28 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO6SlTUBA38

Motrin Ad Makes Moms Mad!

7:28 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhR-y1N6R8Q

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LESSON # 5:

‘Market Research’ is now

more critical than ever before!

SAMSUNG GALAXY S III AD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnQBT_6odwA 7:28 PM

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Many firms tend to employ

Social Media as a broadcasting medium to
generate customer engagement

CHANEL Nº 5

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGs4CjeJiJQ Number of Views : 8.9+ Million

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CHANEL Nº 5 Revisited

7:28 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKmMeBpzJzo

Many firms tend to employ

Social Media as a broadcasting medium to
generate customer engagement

But, engagement comes through…..

conversations

And the conversations may prove negative for the brand.

(LESSON # 6)

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2011 Ford Explorer Launch

• Unveiling the new Explorer exclusively through Facebook
• Ford decided not to introduce the new model in auto shows
• Posted various videos, live streams, and photo collections, etc.

7:28 PM

The Launch of Honda Cross Tour

7:28 PM

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Launch of Honda Cross Tour @ Facebook

7:28 PM

LESSON # 7:

Do NOT try to control the

conversations in Social Media.

When in doubt…revisit lesson # 2

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Increasingly, firms are employing Social Media for PR

Domino's® Pizza Turnaround

7:28 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH5R56jILag
Top Comments on You Tube

7:28 PM

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LESSON # 8

Social Media has become a

popular means for PR.

However……PR ≠ Public Reaction

Large proportion of negative comments from a handful of individuals

on Social Media can defeat the basic purpose of your PR campaign.

The problem is that the relatively high proportion of negative comments

may be perceived to be representative of the general population
even when it is not.

United Airlines @ 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrDWY6C1178

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United CEO’S First Response

Monday, April 10, 2017

“ This is an upsetting event to all of us here at United. I apologize for

having to re-accommodate these customers. Our team is moving with
a sense of urgency to work with the authorities and conduct our own
detailed review of what happened. We are also reaching out to this
passenger to talk directly to him and further address and resolve this
situation.”

– Oscar Munoz, CEO, United Airlines

Social Media Response

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-IZ2blJsDU

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LESSON # 9

not
How to react to a Social Media crisis?

If you mess up as a company (especially on Social Media):

Take responsibility, apologize, and clearly state (to the public at

large) how you are going to fix the problem.
Say it like you mean it! (i.e., adopt more of a personal rather than
a formal/legal tone)

If you don’t:
The damage to your brand will be greatly amplified by social
media.

Damage Control: United’s CEO Second Response

Tuesday – April 11, 2017

“The truly horrific event that occurred on this flight has elicited many
responses from all of us: outrage, anger, disappointment. I share all of
those sentiments, and one above all: my deepest apologies for what
happened. Like you, I continue to be disturbed by what happened on this
flight and I deeply apologize to the customer forcibly removed and to all
the customers aboard. No one should ever be mistreated this way.
I want you to know that we take full responsibility and we will work to
make it right.
It’s never too late to do the right thing. I have committed to our customers
and our employees that we are going to fix what’s broken so this never
happens again. This will include a thorough review of crew movement,
our policies for incentivizing volunteers in these situations, how we
handle oversold situations and an examination of how we partner with
airport authorities and local law enforcement. We’ll communicate the
results of our review by April 30th. I promise you we will do better.”

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Implementing Social
Media Marketing

Any Social Media Strategy is essentially built

around three types of activity

Listening

Using Social Media as a scanning tool

to find out what people are saying

Connecting

Commenting, participating and/or

inviting conversations

Publishing

Providing useful and relevant

information and content via various
social media platforms

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Every Social Media Platform is different

− The relative proportion of target segment typically

varies across social media platforms

− Consumers’ mindset is expected to be different on

different social media platforms

Implication:

Social Media messaging/communication/advertising

approach has to be developed and implemented
platform-specific.

How to meaningfully differentiate

across SM platforms?

Examples:

Put pictures of latest

models and concept cars
Car company

Promote discussion and

reviews of the new cars

Promote back-to-school sale

Retailer
Attract customers in the stores
by posting photos and videos of
other customers in the stores

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Some real world examples

Real-time updates
of games

Pictures of sports merchandise

Promotes local events and other

information targeted to guests

Promotes content targeted

to reporters, wedding
planners, and travel agents

While publishing on Social Media:

Think about targeting options in conjunction
with the choice of Social Media Platform

ONLINE AD OR CONTENT
Where is my
target
How can I
segment? What SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORM? target my
Facebook, LinkedIn,Twitter, etc ads/content?

Targeting options

Demographics
Keywords Search
in UGC (Location, Gender,
Results Platform
Education, etc.)
(Mobile/PC
Interest /OS)
Similarity to
existing
fans/followers Online
Behavior

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How to manage Digital & Social Media spend?

Network Number of Posts

Size
Level of
Engagement Likes
Tweets
Influencers

Views
Number of unique visitors
Fans/Followers

Number of positive online reviews

10% to 15% of online

product reviews are fake
Source: WSJ, October 2015.

Likes, Followers, and Fans

can be easily purchased
Example: http://www.buzzdayz.com/

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Challenge:
How to manage Digital & Social Media spend?

Number of Posts
Network
Size Level of
Engagement Likes
Tweets
Influencers

Views
Number of unique visitors
Fans/Followers

By linking Digital & Social Media metrics to

conventional financial metrics!

This is the easy part

Digital &
Digital & Traditional
Social
Social Financial
Media
Media Outcome
(Output)
Initiatives Metrics
Metrics

Can be quantified through empirical

models and/or experimentation

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State of Retail Stores in USA

269 Stores 100 Stores 460 Stores

110 Stores

154 Stores 735 Stores
1,430 Stores
78 Stores

Source: USA Today

E‐commerce sales and their share in total retail sales

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Technology disruption over the decades

Source: Mary Meeker’s 2018 Internet Trends Report 

Technology Adoption is Accelerating
Internet > PC > TV > Telephone

Source: The Economist, Pew Research Center, Asymco

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Rapid Adoption of Technology

Rapid Adoption of Technology

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Key Takeaway:

Consumer habits are

fundamentally changing and
increasingly gravitating towards
digital consumption.

DIGITAL DISRUPTION??!! 

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The industries that are being disrupted the most by digital

Telecom 64%
Technology 57%
Retail 57%
Nonprofit 52%
Media 72%
Insurance 53%
Industrial 39%
Healthcare 47%
Education 50%
Consumer products 52%
Consumer Financial services 61%
Business & Professional services 51%
Asset Wealth Management 43%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Source: Harvard Business Review The Industries that are being disrupted the most by digital 

By 2020, every business will become 
either a digital predator or digital prey. 
‐ Forrester Research, 2015.

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Introducing some of the digital predators….. 
Established Company
Digital Start‐up

Source: Feature [23] Transforming Modern Business into Digital Leaders 

Artificial 
Intelligence

Transformative 
Technologies
Mixed 
Blockchain
Reality

ENABLERS OF DIGITAL DISRUPTION

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What are the applications of electricity?

General-Purpose Technology

The most important general purpose technology of today?

Artificial Intelligence
(Machine Learning)

AI investment is accelerating

$57.6 billion
(2021)

7x
$8 billion 
(2016)

Source: IDC Spending Guide Forecasts Worldwide Spending on Cognitive and Artificial Intelligence Systems

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Artificial Intelligence
The capability of computers/systems to perform and 
mimic human‐like behaviors such as perceiving, 
reasoning, learning, and problem solving

Source: Shah & Shay (2018) “How & Why Artificial Intelligence, Mixed Reality & 
Blockchain Technologies Will Change Marketing We Know Today.”

Why has AI become so popular recently?

 Data Availability

 Computation Power

 Cloud Computing
 Makes AI/ML portable for consumers (e.g. Alexa)

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Machine Learning

Supervised Unsupervised
Machine Learning Machine Learning

Develop a mapping function Model the underlying structure

to predict output (y) based on or distribution in the data in
a set of input variables (x) order to learn more about the
data

Classification Regression
Output variable is Output variable is a
Clustering Association
a category continuous value Discover inherent Discover rules that
grouping in the data describe large portions of
data, e.g. people that buy
‘x’ also tend to buy ‘y’

Popular Applications of AI

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Popular Applications of AI

Source: Shah & Shay (2018) “How & Why Artificial Intelligence, Mixed Reality & 
Blockchain Technologies Will Change Marketing We Know Today.”

Popular Applications of AI: Enhancing Perception 

Voice Recognition

Facial Recognition

Self-Driving Cars

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Promising Applications of AI

Applying AI for Natural Languages

Understand Generate
natural natural
language language
(text or speech) (text or speech)

Combine
both
capabilities
to have a
conversation

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Using AI to understand and generate natural language

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5VN56jQMWM

ROBOTICS

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What are Robots?

Automated devices that perform physical tasks in the real work

Most Look and

robots in behave like
movies humans

Designed and
programmed to
Most robots do specific
tasks
in practice
• Seldom look
like humans

Robotics in Practice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSA5Bq‐1fU4

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AI in Healthcare

https://youtu.be/xDgkmXAsvL8

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So, will machines replace humans?

Ray Kurzweil

The Theory of ‘Singularity’

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Reality Today:
What can Machine
Learning not do
(and humans can)?

Innovation, Judgement, Common sense.

Testing in the Digital World:

A/B versus Multivariate

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A/B Testing

 Technique for testing 2 (or more)

versions of a page or conditions on
a website
 Each version/condition is randomly
shown to a predetermined
percentage of people who come to
the page
 Usually 50% in the case of A/B testing,
or 33.3%, 33.3%, 33.3% in the case of
A/B/C testing and so on.

 The goal is to identify the version

of a page that delivers the best
desired outcome(s)
 For example: more click-throughs, more
conversions, lower bounce rates, etc.

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A/B Testing (cont.)

 Main Advantage:
 Very useful for testing major changes to a web page’s
layout/design or for testing two or more versions of structured
experiences requiring multiple steps or pages (e.g. applying for a
credit card, checking out items from a shopping cart).
 Main Drawback:
 Difficult to tease out the different elements of a web page that are
contributing to the increase or decrease in conversion rate.

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Multivariate Testing

 Technique for testing multiple versions of different elements of

a web page. (e.g. image, font, animation, color, write-up, offer
%, etc.)

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Google’s Website Optimizer Tool

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJT9TCqzw4U

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Note: Google has discontinued the website

optimizer tool and replaced it with Content
Experiments

Key Difference: Compare up to 10 full versions of a landing page 

https://support.google.com/analytics/answer/1745147?hl=en&ref_topic=1745207&vid=0-
635787200939834466-1776365007&rd=1

Multivariate Testing

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Multivariate Testing (cont.)

 Main Advantages:
 Offers richer insights and greater precision in terms of website visitors’
preferences to individual elements of a web page.
 Insights may be applied to other (including non-related) pages of the
website.

 Main Drawbacks:
 Relatively complex procedure. Requires relatively more time and
resources.
 Requires (on an average) more website visitors to achieve statistical
significance of the results as compared to A/B testing.

117

Question

On full market implementation, will

the performance of a DM program
be identical to its Test Result?

118

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Calculating Uncertainty in
Post-Implementation Predictions

 Smaller the sample size = Greater the uncertainty

 Large sample size = More cost
 The level of uncertainty can be quantified in terms
of limits of error
 Limits of error depend upon:
 The sample size
 The response rate
 The confidence level (usually set to 95%)

119

Quantifying Uncertainty

 Suppose, we conducted a DM test as per the

following:
 Number of people (sample size) = 5000
 Response obtained = 2.5%

 What is the level of uncertainty associated with

the DM test results?
R (100  R )
 Limits of Error, Lk
n
k=constant depending on confidence level chosen (k=1.96
for 95% confidence levels)
R=response percentage obtained for the test
n=sample size
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Quantifying Uncertainty (cont.)

 For our example:

2 .5 (100  2 .5 )
L  1 .96 
5000
L  0.43

 Interpretation:
We can be 95% confident that the roll-out will have a
response rate of 2.5  0.43% (That is, between 2.07%
and 2.93%) upon implementation

121

Market Research in Direct Marketing

 Testing is not an alternative for market research

 Market research should be viewed as an ‘investment’
and not an ‘expense’
 Testing tells us: How consumers behave?
 Market Research tells us: Why consumers behave?
 Market Research:
 Quantitative
E.g.: Understanding size and type of customer segments
(Factor/Cluster analysis)
 Qualitative
E.g.: Understanding consumer attitudes (satisfaction surveys)

122

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Mixed Reality

The blending of the physical and virtual worlds 
with the help of technology

The Mixed‐Reality Continnuum

PHYSICAL  AUGMENTED  AUGMENTED  VIRTUAL

ENVIROMENT  REALITY  VIRTUALITY REALITY

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IKEA

The IKEA App utilizes a smartphone camera in order to allow 
customers to drag and drop any piece of IKEA furniture 
seemingly into their own homes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMwHit_RMNA

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Benefits of Mixed Reality

Decreased cost: After initial startup investment, testing in virtual reality 
can cost much lesser than traditional market testing in the long‐term.

Efficiency: Creating and testing in virtual reality is faster than 
physical field tests. Multiple tests can be run simultaneously.

Immersive Experience: Mixed Reality environments can offer 
consumers a superior experience. 

Source: Rutgers Virtual Reality: Changing the Way Marketers are Conducting Research

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIYItG1RKuI&feature=youtu.be

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DDBM @ WES

100 million consumers will shop in augmented reality by 2020

Mixed reality is expected to grow into a $95 billion market by 2025

Source: Gartner, Goldman Sachs, Google Images

END OF DAY 3

Connect with me on LinkedIn:

www.linkedin.com/in/denishshah/

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